Interesting info today. First, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has, through the statement of a Colonel General, made the following statement (translated by my friend Andrei Martyanov on his blog): (emphasis added)
Translation: MOSCOW, August 16 – RIA Novosti. Western curators have practically written off the Kyiv regime and are already planning the partition of Ukraine, Foreign Intelligence Service spokesman Colonel-General Volodymyr Matveev said at the Moscow Conference on International Security. “Obviously, the West is not concerned about the fate of the Kyiv regime. As can be seen from the information received by the SVR, Western curators have almost written it off and are in full swing developing plans for the division and occupation of at least part of the Ukrainian lands,” he said. However, according to the general, much more is at stake than Ukraine: for Washington and its allies, it is about the fate of the colonial system of world domination.
Just to clarify, the SVR rarely makes public statements and when they do, you can take them to the bank as the SVR is not in the business of “leaks” from “informed sources” and all the rest of the PR nonsense produced by the so-called Western “intelligence” agencies (which have now been fully converted to highly politicized propaganda outlets).
The same day I see this article on the RT website: “Western countries waiting for ‘fall of Ukraine’ – Kiev” in which an interesting statement the Ukronazi Foreign Minister is mentioned:
Several countries in the West are waiting for Kiev to surrender and think their problems will immediately solve themselves, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba in an interview published on Tuesday. “I often get asked in interviews and while speaking to other foreign ministers: how long will you last? That’s instead of asking what else could be done to help us defeat Putin in the shortest time possible,” Kuleba said, noting that such questions suggest that everyone “is waiting for us to fall and for their problems to disappear on their own.”
Finally, a while ago, Dmitri Medvedev posted this “future map of the Ukraine after the war” on his Telegram account. This maps shows a Ukraine partitioned between her neighbors and a tiny rump Ukraine left in the center.
Now, full disclosure, I have been a proponent of the breakup of the Ukraine into several successor states for a long while now: I gave my reasons for this in my article “The case for the breakup of the Ukraine” written in faraway 2016.
Now, six years later, what are the chances of this happening?
Without making predictions, which is close to impossible right now as there are way too many variables which can dramatically influence the outcome, I want to list a few arguments for and against the likelihood (as opposed to desirability) of such an outcome.
Arguments for the likelihood of this outcome:
- First, most of the neighbors of the Ukraine would benefit from such an outcome. Poland would not get the “intermarium” it always dreams about, but it would get back lands which historically belong to Poland and are populated by many Poles. In this map, Romania would also get a good deal, albeit Moldavia would lose Transnistria, which it had no real chance to ever truly control anyway. Romania might, therefore, even absorb all of Moldavia. True, on this map, Hungary gets (almost) nothing, but that is an issue which Hungary must tackle with Poland and Romania, not Russia.
- Russia might not even oppose such a development, simply because it makes the Ukronazi problem somebody else’s issue. As long as what is the current Ukraine is fully demilitarized and denazified, Russia will be fine with such an outcome.
- The rump ex-Banderastan would be so much reduced in size, population and resources that it would present little to no threat to anybody. Crucially, the Russians will never allow it to have anything more than a minimal police and internal security force (for at least as long as there remains even *traces* of the Ukronazi Banderista ideology anywhere near Russia). The actual chances of this rump Banderastan to become a threat to anybody would be close to zero. Not to mention that even if that rump Banderastan could become some kind of threat, it would be much easier to deal with it than the threat Russia faced in early 2022.
- Objectively, the European countries would get the best possible “out” for them, as being in a constant state of total war by proxy is absolutely unsustainable for countries of Europe.
- As for “Biden”, assuming he is still alive and in power (?), it would make it possible for “him” to remove the topic of this latest war lost (again!) by the USA from the headlines and deal with other issues.
- The Ukraine has been such a waste of money, billions and billions, that it is essentially a black hole with an event horizon which lets nothing come back out and beyond which anything, money, equipment or men, simply disappear. That is clearly an unsustainable drain on the economies of the West.
- Yet, in theory, if a deal is made and all parties agree, then the EU could remove maybe not all, but at least the worst, self-damaging, sanctions it so stupidly implemented and which are now destroying the EU’s economy.
- For the USA the biggest benefit from such an outcome could be, in theory, that it would “close” the “Russian front” and allow the US to focus its hatred and aggression against China.
There are, however, also many arguments against such an outcome.
- First, the Western ruling classes, drunk on total russophobia, would have to accept that Russia won this war (again) and defeated the combined powers of the West (again). This would mean an immense loss of face and political credibility for all those involved in the political war against Russia.
- Second, for NATO this would be a disaster. Remember that NATO’s real goal is to “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down“. In this case, how would an even expanded NATO accept that it could do absolutely nothing to stop the Russians from achieving all their goals?
- Next, while the people of the EU are suffering from the devastating economic policies of their rulers, the ruling elites (the EU 1%) are doing just fine, thank you, and don’t give a damn about the people they rule over.
- Such an outcome would also directly challenge the US desire for a unipolar world, run by Uncle Shmuel as the World Hegemon. The risk here is a political domino effect in which more and more countries would struggle to achieve true sovereignty, which would be a direct threat to the US economic model.
- Such an outcome is almost certain to be unachievable while the Neocons run the USA. And since there are NO signs of the weakening of the Neocons’ iron grip on all the levers of political powers in the USA, such an outcome could only happen if the Neocon crazies are sent back to the basement they crawled out from and where they belong. Not likely in the foreseeable future.
- This focus on the partition of the Ukraine overlooks the fact that the Ukraine is not the real enemy of Russia. In fact, the Ukraine lost the war to Russia in the first 7-10 days after the beginning of the SMO. Ever since, it is not the Ukraine per se which Russia has been fighting, but the consolidated West. If the real enemy is the consolidated West, the it could be argued that *any* outcome limited to the Ukraine would not fix or solve anything. At best, it might be an intermediate stage of a much larger and longer war in which Russia will have to demilitarize and denazify not just Banderastan but, at the very least, all of the EU/NATO countries.
- While for some the Ukrainian war has been an economic disaster, it has been a fantastic windfall for the (terminally corrupt) US MIC. And I won’t even go into the obvious corruption ties the Biden family has in Kiev. If this “Medvedev solution” is ever realized, then all that easy money would disappear.
- Furthermore, while amongst the argument for such an outcome I listed the ability of the USA to “close the Russian front” and focus on China, in reality such an arguments makes a very far-fetched assumption: that it is still possible to separate Russia and China and that Russia would allow the US to strike at China. Simply put, Russia cannot allow China to be defeated any more than China can allow for a Russian defeat. Thus the entire notion of “closing the Russian front” is illusory, in reality things have gone way too far for that and neither Russia nor China will allow the US to take them down one by one.
- The EU is run by a comprador ruling class which is totally subservient to the interests of the US Neocons. There are, already, many internal tensions inside the EU and such an outcome would be a disaster for those all those EU politicians who painted themselves into the corner of a total war against Russia, and even if, say, the Poles, Romanians or even Hungarians get some benefit from such an outcome, it would be unacceptable to the thugs currently running Germany, the UK or even France.
The arguments for and against such an outcome I listed above are just some examples, in reality there are many more arguments on both sides of this issue. Besides, what made sense 6 years ago might not make sense today.
For example, this discussion focuses on the “what” but not on the “how”. Let me explain.
I think that I was the first person in the West who noticed and translated a key Russian expression: “non agreement capable” (недоговороспособны). This expression has been increasingly used by many Russian decision-makers, politicians, political commentators and others. Eventually, even the folks in the West picked up on this. So let’s revisit this issue again, keeping in mind that the Russians are now fully convinced that the West is simply “non agreement capable”. I would argue that up until the Russian ultimatum to the USA and NATO, the Russians still left open the door to some kind of negotiations. However, and as I predicted BEFORE the Russian ultimatum, Russia made the only possible conclusion from the West’s stance: if our “partners” (sarcasm) are not agreement capable, then the time has come for Russian unilateralism.
True, ever since 2013, or even 2008, there were already signs that Russian decision making is gradually moving towards unilateralism. But the Russian ultimatum and SMO are now the “pure” signs of the adoption by Russia of unilateralism, at least towards the consolidated West.
If that is correct, then I would suggest that most arguments above, on both sides of the issue, have basically become obsolete and irrelevant.
Furthermore, I would like to add a small reminder here: most of the combat operations in the Ukraine are not even conducted by Russian forces, but by LDNR forces supported by Russian C4ISR and firepower. But in terms of her real military potential, Russia has used less than 10% of her military and Putin was quite candid about this when he said “we have not even begun to act seriously“.
What do you think this war will look like if Russia decides to really unleash her full military power, that is the 90% of forces which are currently not participating in the SMO?
Here is a simple truth which most folks in the West cannot even imagine: Russia does not fear NATO at all.
If anything, the Russians have already understood that they have the means to impose whatever outcome they chose to unilaterally impose on their enemies. The notion of a US/NATO attack on Russia is simply laughable. Yes, the USA has a very powerful submarine force which can fire lots of Tomahawk and Harpoon missiles at Russian targets. And yes, the US has a still robust nuclear triad. But neither of these will help the USA win a land war against the Russian armed forces.
And no, sending a few thousands US soldiers to this or that NATO country to “reinforce NATO’s eastern flank” is pure PR, militarily, it is not even irrelevant, it’s laughable. I won’t even comment on the sending of F-35s which is so utterly ridiculous and useless against the Russian Aerospace Forces and air defenses that I won’t even bother arguing with those who don’t understand how bad both the F-35s (and even the F-22s!) really are.
I won’t dignify the EU’s military capabilities with any comment other than this: countries who now seriously advocate taking less frequent showers to “show Putin!” have sunk to such a level of irrelevance and degeneracy that they cannot be taken seriously, most definitely not in Russia.
So where do we go from here?
As I said, I don’t know, there are too many variables. But a few things seem clear to me:
- Russia has decided to do full unilateralism in her policies towards the Ukraine and the West. Oh sure, if and when needed, Russians will still agree to talk to their Western “partners”, but that is due to the long standing Russian policy of always talking to everybody and anybody, even Russia’s worst enemies. Why? Because neither warfare nor political unilateralism are an end by themselves, they are only means to achieve a specific political goal. Thus, it is always good to sit down with your enemy, especially if you have been gently but steadily increasing the pain dial on them for a few months! The Europeans being the “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies” (to quote BoJo) they might cave in quickly and suddenly or, at the very least, they will try to improve their lot by trying to bypass their own sanctions (Uncle Shmuel permitting, however reluctantly).
- The only party with any real agency left with which Russia could seriously negotiate is the USA, of course. However, as long as the USA is under the total control of the Neocons, this is a futile exercise.
- Should there ever be any kind of deal made, it would only be one which would be fully and totally verifiable. Contrary to popular beliefs, a great many treaties and agreements can be crafted to be fully verifiable, that is not a technical problem by itself. However, with the current ruling classes of the West, no such deal is likely to be hammered out and agreed by all parties involved.
So what is left?
There is a Russian saying which my grandmother taught me as a kid: “the borders of Russia are found at the end of a Cossack’s spear“. This saying, born from 1000 years of existential warfare with no natural borders simply expresses a basic reality: the Russian armed forces are the ones who decide where Russia ends. Or you can flip it this way: “the only natural border of Russia are the capabilities of the Russian armed forces”. You can think of it as pre-1917 Russian unilateralism :-)
Still, this begs the question of the moral and ethical foundation for such a stance. After all, does it not suggest that Russia gives herself the right to invade any country it can just because she can?
Not at all!
While there were imperialist and expansionist wars in Russian history, compared to the West’s 1000 years of wall to wall imperialism, Russia is but a meek and gentle lamb! Not that this excuses anything, it is simply a fact. The rest of the Russian wars were, almost all, existential wars, for the survival and freedom of the Russian nation. I cannot think of a more “just war” than one which 1) was imposed upon you and 2) one in which your sole goal is to survive as a free and sovereign nation, especially a multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation as the Russian one has always been, in sharp contrast to the enemies of Russia which were always driven by religious, nationalist and even overtly racist fervor (which is what we can all observe again today, long after the end of WWII).
Is this just propaganda? If you think so, then you can study Russian history or, better, study the current military doctrine of Russia and you will see that Russia’s force planning is entirely defensive, especially at the strategic level. The best proof of that is that Russia put up with all the ugly racist and russophobic policies of the Ukraine or the three Baltic statelets for decades without taking any action. But when the Ukraine became a de facto NATO proxy and directly threatened not only the Donbass, but Russia herself (does anybody still remember that days before the SMO, “Ze” declared that the Ukraine should get nuclear weapons?!), then Russia took action. You have to be either blind or fantastically dishonest not to admit that self-evident fact.
[Sidebar: by the way, the three Baltic statelets, for which Russia has no use at all, are constantly trying to become a military threat to Russia, not only by hosting NATO forces, but also by truly idiotic plans to “lock” the Baltic with Finland. Combine this with the Nazi anti-Russian Apartheid policies towards the Russian minorities and you would be forgiven for thinking that the Balts really want to be the next ones to be denazified and demilitarized. But… but… – you will say – “since they are members of NATO, they cannot be attacked!”. Well, if you believe that 1) anybody in NATO will fight Russia over these statelets or 2) that NATO has the military means to protect them, then I have got plenty of great bridges to sell you. Still, the most effective way to deal with the Balts is to let them commit economic suicide, which they basically have already done, and then promise them a few “economic carrots” for a change to a more civilized attitude. A Russian saying says that “the refrigerator wins against the TV” (победа холодильника над телевизором) which means that when your refrigerator is empty, the propaganda on TV loses its power. I think that the future of the 3 Baltic statelets will be defined by that aphorism]
So will the Ukraine be partitioned?
Yes, absolutely, it has already lost huge parts of its territory and it will only lose more.
Might the Western neighbors decide to take a bite out off the western Ukraine? Sure! That is a real possibility.
But these will all be either unilateral actions or very unofficially coordinated understandings wrapped in plausible deniability (like the deployment of Polish “peacekeepers” to “protect” the western Ukraine). But mostly I predict two things will happen: 1) Russia will achieve all of her goals unilaterally without making any deals with anybody and 2) Russia will only allow the Ukraine’s Western neighbors to bite off some chunks of the Ukraine if, and only if, those chunks to not represent any military threat to Russia.
Remember what Putin said about Finland and Sweden joining NATO? He said that by itself, this is not a problem for Russia. But he warned that should these countries host US/NATO forces and weapons systems threatening Russia, then Russia will have to take counter-measures. I think that this is also the Kremlin’s position about the future of any rump-Banderastan and any moves by NATO countries (including Poland, Romania and Hungary) to reacquire territories which historically belonged to them or which have substantial Polish, Romanian and Hungarian minorities.
Right now, we are only in the second phase of the SMO (which centers of the Donbass) and Russia has not even initiated any operations to move deeper into the Ukraine. As for the real war, the war between Russia and the combined West, it has been going on for no less than decade, or even more, and this war will last much longer than the SMO in the Ukraine. Finally, the outcome of this war will see tectonic and profound changes at least as dramatic as the changes resulting from the outcomes of WWI and WWII.
The Russians understand that what they now really must do is to truly finish WWII and that the formal end of WWII in 1945 only marked the transition to a different type of warfare still imposed by a united, consolidated West, but now not by German Nazis but by (mostly) US Neocons (which, of course, are typical racist Nazis, except their racism is Anglo and Judaic/Zionist).
I will conclude with a short quote by Bertold Brecht which, I think, is deeply understood by Russia today:
“Therefore learn how to see and not to gape.
To act instead of talking all day long.
The world was almost won by such an ape!
The nations put him where his kind belong.
But don’t rejoice too soon at your escape –
The womb he crawled from is still going strong.”
― Bertolt Brecht, The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui
Russia slaughtered a lot of Western apes in her history, now is the time to finally deal with the womb from which they crawled out from.
Andrei
PS: FYI – the Russian investigation has declared that the explosions in the airfield in Crimea was an act of sabotage/diversion. Which was the most likely explanation to begin with.
The Anglo-Saxons have been bankrupt since Lehman (2008). They were able to hide it for 14 years: bail in banks with our money, the euro crisis they organized, war in Syria, Maidan, biological attack c19 , lockdonw, QE money printing without limit, negative or zero rates they have tried everything to save time and transfer maximum wealth from bottom to top. It is no longer possible to hide it: their Ponzi of hundreds of trillions of debts and quadrillions of derivatives can never be reimbursed. Only way out believe they destroyed their only competitor Eurasia from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
Hidden in their bunkers their ”elites” think they can survive there and then continue to plunder the rest of the world which will have survived the nuclear exchange even if it means sacrificing European, Russian and Chinese infrastructures + tens or hundreds of millions of people . They know that millions will also die at home (US UK) following the ‘massive counter strike’. they play poker and think that Putin won’t dare, the Chinese even less (hence the taiwaingate)…a very dangerous game. The US neocons (eschatolgia of Armageddon, arrival of the Messiah) and the banksters of the City overestimate their forces as always.
As the Mexican President has just said, the Anglo-Saxons supply the arms, the Ukraine and then all of Europe the corpses.
“Hidden in their bunkers their ”elites” think they can survive there and then continue to plunder the rest of the world which will have survived the nuclear exchange”
I was always curious about this line of thought — that somehow the elite would crawl out from their holes to retake what remains of the world. I have to wonder – what world would be left? What would the elite take it with – there would surely be no armies left under their command – if there were any armies remaining? And what would they eat as most of the world’s agricultural productive capability and distribution logistics would have been destroyed? And how would they fuel their transport and heat themselves and re-build society with surely all the oil-producing, processing plants and distribution centres gone? How would they protect themselves and their families from disease and injury with hospitals, pharmaceuticals and the rest of the medical industries gone? And what about clothing, shelter, and the maintenance of a modern society? How many of them know how to live in the rough? How many would survive against the outlaws of survivors?
The world, if any were left, the elite walk into from under their rocks would be a far different world than they left behind. They are not stupid. You know they must have thought about this. But that is another subject.
They haven’t really thought about much except how to create a system to control people, there is no plan B, and the oppositions plan A, is winging it.
So anything can and will go, and there is no saying just where anything is going to go, b/c plan A consists of winging it and the opposition doesn’t want to be here if they cant control everything.
I don’t see an easy way out, or even a way to prevent, the looming natural climate disaster.
Alabama,
“the looming natural climate disaster.”
What climate disaster? The one the MSM is pushing? Come on, don’t believe that nonsense.
http://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2014/07/17/puzzled-scientists/
Correct Doug.
Even the IPCC in AR5 and AR6 debunk claims of increased Extreme Weather since 1900. Nor do tide gauges show accelerated sea level rise globally. Satellite data show Global temperatures since1979 rising at a non-threatening 1.3 degree C / century rate.
CO2 is not the climate control knob. In the past 5000 years temperatures were much higher and much colder than today… when CO2 levels were almost 50% lower.
There is no climate crisis.
I’ve thought it would be a good opportunity to get them out of our way. Trick them into going to their bunkers and then make them think it’s not safe to come out yet, with a fake news feed
The existence of “bunkers” (multi-billion dollar continuance of government facilities constructed since 1950s) merely signifies that the Neocon Globalists possess enough FALSE security to believe they are invincible against their declared enemies. The psychology is similar to that of the young child that believes he becomes invisible by covering his own eyes with his hands. Here is the proposal: if a clear demonstration could be made that any “bunker” would be identified and located, ultimately breached (i.e. using directional drilling rigs), and destroyed (flooded, gassed, severed from outside air and power conduits), then the decision war makers might not feel so secure after all with their plans for Armageddoning the planet. Just an idea. Nevertheless, how secure would you feel being holed up in some critical facility designed and constructed by profit seeking lowest-bidding contractors? Hope they enjoy sucking on radon.
It’s wrong to assume they are not stupid.
I read a good quote from Alaister Crook a few days ago:
“It is just not possible to remain intelligent under the spell of ideology”. Intelligence, after all, is an ongoing attentiveness to reality, which is inconsistent with willfulness and fantasy. Nor can it take root in the sterile soil of widespread cultural repudiation. This is why all ideological regimes are without exception plagued by sheer ineptitude.
I have met the children and good friends of some of the most powerful people in JUSA politics – and can tell you they are mostly painfully aware that their only skill has always been kissing ass to their wealthy parents (who often only ever had the same skill themselves).
I have personally exposed a couple of different USA oligarch children having diplomas from MIT, Princeton without ever having gone there to any lectures or exams. I discovered this by accident by introducing them to friends who did the same courses at MIT etc the same year who told me later they have never seen these oligarch kids anywhere before (and these were small groups at MIT etc).
These already not too wise and as you see educated oligarch kids have another painful burden to bear. Imagine growing up and feeling that for your whole life you have never had a real friend – everyone around you is pretty much there just because of your money (you painfully know you never earned nor did your parents who also inherited it etc)…
And no the ones I met were not at all that bright. So never underestimate their lack of education, intelligence etc…and some of them come from a culture know for inbreeding which gives it another layer of mental degeneracy.
I don’t think it’s the Anglo-Saxons. In the UK sense, I think of that group as the Normans, who invaded Britain in 1066.
It then took the Anglo-Saxons 300 years to control the worst impulses of their conquerors, symbolized by the Magna Carta. But yet much of the latter group’s awful behavior persisted and has reemerged now in a new, feral form, especially involving the countryside. In the US the situation is similar. What is sold as a environmental movement is very Norman.
The Norman type, who insist they are cosmopolitan, believe every field & forest should belong to people like them, especially if they don’t live there. They have a existential dread of big tracts of land with ‘peasants’ on them, and have been this way for a 1000 years.
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Don’t count your Chickens Kiev before they hatch.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
In shorthand – instead of the greater khazaria project, we now are back to the good ol` pale of settlements charged with generations worth of reparation payments yes?
I can live with that…
Zaluzhny Pushes Zelensky Out of Power: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Kicks Out “Team Ze”
NEW – August 16, 2022
Signals of an imminent military coup were sent from Ukraine
On August 13, the Russian Defence Ministry announced that allied forces had completely taken control of the settlement of Peski in the DPR. In Kiev, according to insider info, the search for the guilty and skirmishers in the corridors of power began. Meetings both with and without the military took place on Bankova Street, and, according to a source of one Telegram channel known in Ukraine, the latter lasted much longer. The issue of “rocking the boat” from the side of Zaluzhny was discussed.
“The office of the president [of Ukraine] decided to accelerate in the case of cleansing the entire political and media opposition in Ukraine,” local truth-tellers scribble, terrified that the SBU will knock on their door.
Citizens understand that the UAF does not have the strength to go on the offensive, despite the nonsense of the main talker of the Presidential Office — “Lucy” Arestovich. At the same time, Russians are slowly but stubbornly liberating their lands from the nazis who found themselves in Ukraine due to a number of historical mistakes…
https://www.stalkerzone.org/zaluzhny-pushes-zelensky-out-of-power-the-general-staff-of-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-kicks-out-team-ze/?fbclid=IwAR16hqeOvi44yINDx5jzRtWGtCRTXRezM9VH2D28fkGLmmDzLbQn5nS7dJM
If You thought the “neocons” have HATED Russia – You ain`t seen nuttn yet…
“by deception – ye shall wage war”
I just want to be a fly on Julia Ioffe`s wall, when she realizes the magnitude of their defeat…by their own chutzpah. Funny thang is – they didn`t need to go there. They have had EVERYTHING going their way all across the line of contact. They have won the war for what it`s worth.
They couldn`t help themselves…
I do not approve giving parts of Ukraine to the surrounding hawks. These are the territories that the USSR took from Romania and Hungary as war reparations, and that fact has not yet disappeared. Germany was also deprived of the territories to which Poland was pushed, so that the USSR took over the parts of Poland that it had conquered in 1922 from the Soviet revolutionaries.
Emperor Peter II BOUGHT the Baltic Republics.
If someone does not like the population of Galicia – there are solutions for that. If the people of Galicia don’t like Russia – that can be solved too.
Historically you are spot on, I agree. However, I do not believe that Russia has any need for these territories, especially considering the kind of people which live there.
Far from needing these limitrophes, Russia lost a lot of useless ballast when the Soviet Union was broken up by the CPSU Nomenklatura. “Losing” this periphery, Russia only got stronger.
My 2cts,
Andrei
There are quite a nr of RU speaking in the 3B( mainly in two). Do you think they still have some envy to be back to mother Russia or are they just ok by receiving EU money(till there is money left in Brussels)?
If EU was giving some money to UK, it has surely robbed 10x more from it. It is obvious from the results: such a wealthy state now is one of the poorest in the world.
No disrespect to mother Russia,
but the mother you are thinking of is here.
Well your momma gave you lovin,
momma held you near,
Well baby mamma cant do nothing,
well baby mama just aint here.
Oh you can pretend all you want to,
that wont work no more.
And you can’t look back for tired,
nope, you tried that once before.
Don’t worry about your momma,
Don’t worry about your brother,
cause the day of reckoning just has to be coming.
I don’t know the geographical distribution of the various ethnic groups in these countries, but if it is possible that certain areas bordering Russia can be “liberated” from the nazis and leave the rest to the EU, why not?
“Losing” this periphery, Russia only got stronger.
—
Peripheries are not to blame for Russia’s weakness. They could not harm Russia during the tsarist era; but during the Soviet era, the anti-Russian policy was practiced all these 70 years. And this was done by suppressing the Russians and encouraging the minorities to harm them. We felt the same scenery here in Yugoslavia.
agree Saker while appearing disastrous the end of the USSR was actually a new begining for Russia… actually a new begining from the whole disastrous 20th century.
[Putin arrives 2000}
to my eyes {a christian } it appears God is on Russia’s side in this new beggining future
the US/EU both are being hammered by most severe droughts at same time as raging inflation is hammering both , it won’t be long before the EU at least will cave an repent and turn to Russia for peace the US can survive a bit longer im guessing but will have been contained / constrained greatly. Thank You LORD!!!
Ex-ukraine is a rogue construct, an anglo-saxon/communist knife under the Russian belly.
If Russians give up one square meter of ex-ukraine, war is lost,
for every square meter left, will become a nazi stronghold.
Millions of dead Russians from 20th century will descend upon you, Mr. Vladimir Vladimirovich.
Those who don’t like Russia, head on to europe, plenty of space, for everybody,
Z
It’s hard to imagine the slicing up of Ukraine to me, but it’s possible. However, Russia should oppose the idea for it is fighting the battle’s and should have it all. I like the ideas of keeping the National Borders and making Ukraine a neutral state without aggressive arms and leaders.
How about NOT slicing up the Ukraine.
Does that look less hard to imagine for you?
I am really curious here.
I would love to have the powers keep Ukraine in one piece and I believe that can happen. However, it appears others have the desire to divide it, some land to Poland, a small piece to Kyiv (Ukraine) etc., Russia should have the right to govern all of Ukraine and maintain it neutral.
How can it be both neutral and governed by a foreign power?
Where have you been since 2014? A large group of Ukrainians has been killing another large group of Ukrainians, which the western press calls “Russia-backed separatists”. Thousands of dead Ukrainians and thousands of smashed buildings. If it is kept in one piece, Ukrainians will kill each other.
What are the reasons of sudden love of West to Ukraine? They have robbed it up to the bone, sent their’s wives to porn-houses, and their’s engineers to taxi-drivers. One of the surely the wealthiest areas in Europe now is a poor Bantustan. Is it the result of a West love? – if so, please don’t love us any more!
See, nobody asks that question.
Up until yesterday, former ukraine was a prime target for nuke attack.
You know, bloody commies and Russians, and shit.
Today, love is eternal, but only for that land to be turned into staging, for drang nach osten, you know.
Problem is, Russians are still in LaLa land, hardly realizing their very existence is in question,
and that WW3 is underway.
Sounds like nothing but an endless headache to try to control western Ukraine. Let their debts to the west drown them until they come to their senses and join the multipolar system.. Might it not be smarter to support a cleaner, better economy in the Donbass, Crimea and whatever else is most defensible and win the loyalty of the people to government that is better for all. This is how the soviet Union was defeated. In the long run, the northern part of Eurasia will be prime real-estate for living and business as global warming continues. The south will need to move their buildings deeper into the earth and maximize solar cooling and heating.
Trade in limited resources is not the long term strategy. Permaculture, unique happy communities, passive solar buildings, clean mass transit, more walking and biking, biological diversity, clean water- all these are components of a livable planet. I am not a an apocalyptic-thinker and I am doubtful that was the true message of Jesus.The goal is heaven within and without, peace on earth, good will to all.
One small error – on Medvedev’s map Hungary is the purple country and DOES take the area around Uzhgorod.
yes, true, but this is pennies compared to what Poland might take.
So there might be even more tensions between Poland and Hungary which are objective foes (even ideologically)
If Poland and Romania are permitted to take part of Ukraine, by Russia, perhaps an agreement can be reached…. dismantle the nato missile bases there pointing at Russia, and leave nato, perhaps become neutral…. a good negotiating start perhaps?
“True, on this map, Hungary gets nothing, but that is an issue which Hungary must tackle with Poland and Romania, not Russia.”
just a minor correction dear Saker, Hungary should actually receive at least the Zakarpattia Oblast just adjacent to Hungary. It is ancestral holdings of Hungary, and where most Hungarian minorities live in the Ukraine. I forget where I saw it, maybe MoA, but a larger version of that Medvedev map was parsed and it actually showed a slight increase in the size of Hungary too.. regardless, given the friendship shown to Russia and goodwill overall and being a pool of residual sanity in Europe not to mention a budding gas-hub via Turk Stream (and via Novorossiya in the medium term), if the hostile Poles and Romanians get lands, Hungarians for sure would get something
yes, but do you think Poland will agree to let the Hungarians take all of Zakarpatia?
https://docplayer.hu/docs-images/28/12539802/images/7-0.jpg
Hungary`s claims here have noting to do with Poland, but with Slovakia and Romania. The foothills of the Carpathian mountains a miniscule slice of “ukraine”.
The problem is not the size of the tiny spot allocated to Hungary, but the fact that Ivano-Frankovsk and Lvov regions are going to be the centers of power in influence under Polish control and they, the Poles, dream of a much bigger chunk of land than what Medvedev “gave” them. They even have “views” on Belarus! So with that kind of appetite, the tiny little slice you refer to will have a very hard time remaining independent from the Polish ambitions and influence.
And here is the key: the Poles have at least some allies (the UK for starters).
But Hungary?
As for Russia, she won’t get involved so far away from her borders.
No, my money is on the Poles here, as Medvedev’s map suggest.
I hope that I am wrong (my personal sympathies are MUCH more with the Hungarians than the Poles).
Saker…this area been part of pre-war of Czechoslovak Republic-1918-1939……
Consider the topography on that map Mr S, not the size of the claim!
As I`ve said though, Hungary claims against Slovakia and Romania DWARF that of “ukraine”.
Alas…Hungary has no drive and no horses – aside from a chain-link fence on the southern border…
Thanks buratino,
“do you think Poland will agree to let the Hungarians take all of Zakarpatia?”
Poland/Romania/Slovakia may not be in any shape soon to make demands. They are among the biggest losers of this conflict.. having fueled it furiously from day one. You indicate the best Polish soldiers were culled in the Donbas + much if not most of all their armor already sent to the Ukraine. NATO/US has not shown up officially or even in significant unofficial numbers (so they are exposed and essentially alone), and the coup de grâce would be making Hungary the new gas-hub.. V Orban will be the Kingmaker of the Eurolemmings.. At least the provider of cooling and heating..
Also what will be the status of the 3Bs?? Imagine their reabsorption, esp after recent madness of treaty violations and now threatening the Gulf of Finland.. If they are gone and Russia is “hovering” over Poland on nearly three sides – this would check a lot of Polish chauvinism.. and who said this Medvedev map is the real Russian plan or intent? It could be merely temporary diversion to split NATO. I doubt Romania would be given so much??
Among best case scenarios would be regime change of these current NATO puppet elites and with a saner contrite leadership they make amends and negotiate with Hungary, perhaps ceding even more lands for fuel concessions. There are major reparations on the horizon. IMO Hungary’s future has so much possibility vis-a-vis all others.. nazis will continue the exodus to join their brethren further west. This should alleviate a lot of their headache and potential for insurgency or considerations about slicing and dicing.
Unfortunately the fly in the ointment is the Anglo 5-Eyes and how to get them to retreat off the continent without either scorched earth throughout Europe or the Götterdämmerung.. Enter the [economic] Dragon?
But who really gives a toss about what Poland wants, no one will come to Poland aid full stop.. no one has, and no one will
Perhaps this is a matter for Russia to decide and Poland to shut up?
Andriej, with all due respect, do you really think that Warsaw is making the decision? Warsaw makes decisions that Washington allows. Moreover, the situation of the governments in Warsaw and Kiev is similar. In Europe, decisions are made by Washington. Did you know that Poland has a law that provides US troops stationed in Poland with police powers over Polish citizens?
Please, do expand on that ….
Is that regional? Like in former German Reich territories?
I’m betting thats up to Russia once war in Ukraine is over , as you said Russia has no fear of NATO
Only about 10% Zakarpathians are Hungarians and from what I read general concensus in Zakarphatia is they do not wish to be part of Hungary. After dissolution of multi-national Austro-Hungarian Empire, several nations seceded, and world powers did not know what to do with Zakarphatia so it was arbitrarily attached to newly formed Czechoslovakia. Slovakia, direct neighbour, makes no claims even though she would be better match for Zakarpathia and is frequent target for Ukrainian workers who easily fit in. IMHO best would be for Zakarpathia to temporarily form its own state or remain part of neutral denazified Ukraine who will sooner or later be integrated into Russia anyway.
“if the hostile Poles and Romanians get lands, Hungarians for sure would get something.”
In my opinion, getting Ukrainian territory is no blessing for the recipient but a heavy economic and social burden. This is one reason why Russia refused to take the bait for many years. By getting almost nothing, Hungary most likely will be better off than Poland and Romania.
Stalin did not hesitate to resettle hostile minorities.
‘I cannot think of a more “just war” than one which 1) was imposed upon you and 2) one in which your sole goal is to survive as a free and sovereign nation’
Couldn’t agree more. Also, the babushka saying is also amazingly true whichever way the Cossack’s spear is pointing to. And the Cossacks aren’t finished just yet with their shiny new spears.
The key neocons should always be recognized for what they are war criminals!
The Poles desire their ‘historic land’ but they will get all the Banderites also, which they don’t want.
So, they have a dilemma.
If they allow the Banderites to base in New Poland, they will receive the fury of Russian standoff weapons, several tastes of which already have struck there within 10 miles of Poland itself.
I don’t see the Russians allowing anyone to take any part without new security agreements. Since the US is against Russia’s terms, nothing can happen unless NATO wants to allow Poland to get its ass kicked.
All that will happen is an insurgency directed by the US will be based in the Western regions of 404. Russia will slowly grind armies, PMCs, adventurers and Poles (who have lost the lion’s share of ‘volunteers’, to date, a few thousand well-trained soldiers who lost their lives to Shoigu’s artillery.)
The borders of NATO touching Russia, Belarus, Kaliningrad and bordering the Russian Arctic and Black Sea waters will be subject to new realities. President Putin has a plan.
France and Germany will NEVER allow Poland to become bigger in terms of population as they would have to finance this via EU rules(France for exemple pays 17% of EU spending, Germany a bit above 20%).As Poland is a receiving (prostituted country in the EU system like all Eastern Europe countries), it would cost FR + GER even more money forever.These eastern EU countries are sucking Western European money with total complicity of their compradores as Saker says rightly, but here we talk about nr of MP’s and vote rights, France and Germany (+ Italy + benelux+ Austria) will not accept to lose power and majority of votes.Polish whores only buy US everything as for exemple France produces some very decent weapons. Here the Brits are betting on the wrong side(betting on Poland + 3B you must be stupid, but Truss, Bojo are..).They left the EU at US demand to destroy continental Europe by proxies.Poland + 3B are only providing problems and debts.I would like to check the real economic situation of Poland (3B are finished), since they took millions of ‘refugees’ ukrops + inflation + energy costs + billions of EU in US weapons orders etc…they are not far from bankruptcy as well, in fact almost all EU countries (even before the war).
That’s why this winter promises to be a challenging one for all of the EU and UK too.
Exactly. It’s becoming more clear that it is not to Russia’s benefit to end the special operation before Winter.
What will happen then is the question. Some countries’ actions are easier to predict than others. The two EU countries that promised not to use special ruble account to pay for Russian natural gas in 2023 will extend that promise to begin their giant murder-suicide ritual not until 2024. But then what of the other countries that valiantly swore off paying for Russian natural gas in rubles, yet are duplicitously receiving gas through Germany via reverse back-flow or through other countries who have set up ruble accounts to pay for their Russian natural gas.
I believe that “when push comes to freezing seething shoving” Germans, pushing down security fencing that Germany is going to react in the most predictable manner. Germany will immediately pivot to protect its own without regard to promises made to other pseudo-ideological EU member countries that have engaged in social media flexing while using Germany as a Russian natural gas payment straw-man.
Looking at no other factor than population, Poland is the most likely country to spiral out of control after the first domino falls. Based on their volume and breadth of their current political bravado, Poland was obviously provided incredible assurances by NATO as to how Poland can still win when hell does actually freeze over.
Whatever move that NATO makes at that point through Poland would undoubtedly be under the guise of “humanitarian aid”.
This is less about the US and more UK…..Boris went to Kiev, he derailed the ‘surrender’, BJs boys are doing flyovers, handing over targeting details, best sabotage projects, killing Russians, bit of a Brit tradition. The spy plane should have been shot down.
Now they are endangering NPP and to think those assholes wanted to attain nuclear weapons.
Cheers M
I honestly don’t get it.
More and more it seems like this is the UK’s proxy war, while the US neocons has sort of backed up somewhat… just feeding the MIC.
Why is the UK so involved? What do they have to gain? I really don’t understand why the UK is doing this.
IMHO, the Davos crowd fighting BRICS is European, not just British.
I don’t ‘get it’ either other than it’s just the English ruling class doing what they always have done.
They just can’t stop themselves from plotting and meddling.
The money needs to be rolling in to keep the pig Queen in pearls.
They have leveraged their integrity to infinity, so they have that to loose.
And the military is the card of last resort to be played, and who doesn’t want to play their last card before they lose it all?
A very good question and as a Brit who’s followed politics in my own country closely for more than half a century, I am in many ways baffled. Until recently, showed very little interest in the doings of eastern Europe since the Potsdam Conference. The best explanation I can offer is that our “ruling elite” – who are for the most part not even natives – is basically joined at the hip with those in Washington. Both the US and UK need to free themselves from these parasites. In the UK’s case, it’s almost certainly too late the rot is too deep. In the US, secession is surely the best option. It’s an irony that by seeking to break up Russia, they’ll end up doing it to themselves.
The US ruling elite are not people whose ancestors were in the US in 1800. Most of them emigrated here in the late 1800’s and thereafter. Many after 1930.
Secession will not work in the US. The division is primarily highly urban vs. everyone else.
You will not understand anything, until you learn to examine EVERY historic and contemporary issue (from womens lib through de-segregation, societal and cultural revolutions, WW-I and II, food safety and the drug-culture, immigration to nuclear proliferation, etc, etc, etc…) from the point of view of: where is the chosen one in the woodpile?
It is really that simple in most cases. Read this book, it is an eye-opener from the standpoint of an evolutionary psychologist. His is not the single approach, that shines the light on otherwise inexplicable events and tends.
https://ia803103.us.archive.org/6/items/thecultureofcritiquekevinmacdonald/The%20Culture%20of%20Critique%20-%20Kevin%20Macdonald.pdf
Another one, that follows that logic from a Catholic`s point of view is E. Michael Jones`s: The jewish revolutionary spirit.
https://ia800206.us.archive.org/30/items/TheJewishRevolutionarySpiritAndItsImpactOnWorldHistoryselections_20/jonesRev.JuJuSelectionsEtc.pdf
Ukraine? Ditto.
We are now in a “phony war” phase, to borrow from a previous conflict, wherein the Casus Belli is being cooked up and the psy-war in overdrive in order to suck everyone and their dog into the festivities.
You simply can not avoid going there. There – You will find the answers. I`m not saying, You will like it. Look at it as Your redpill moment.
I will leave with a quote from an official of the Center of Immigration Studies:
“I’ll confess it, at least: like thousands of other typical Jewish kids of my generation, I was reared as a Jewish nationalist, even a quasi-separatist. Every summer for two months for 10 formative years during my childhood and adolescence I attended Jewish summer camp. There, each morning, I saluted a foreign flag, dressed in a uniform reflecting its colors, sang a foreign national anthem, learned a foreign language, learned foreign folk songs and dances, and was taught that Israel was the true homeland. Emigration to Israel was considered the highest virtue, and, like many other Jewish teens of my generation, I spent two summers working in Israel on a collective farm while I contemplated that possibility. More tacitly and subconsciously, I was taught the superiority of my people to the gentiles who had oppressed us. We were taught to view non-Jews as untrustworthy outsiders, people from whom sudden gusts of hatred might be anticipated, people less sensitive, intelligent, and moral than ourselves. We were also taught that the lesson of our dark history is that we could rely on no one.”
https://cis.org/Report/Jewish-Stake-Americas-Changing-Demography
A ten minute version of the “redpill” if you will…
If Ukraine is to be partitioned, why would poland (a russophobic country) get so much territory, yet, Belarus, the only country that helped Russia in this SMO gets nothing ?. I’d say giving the north and the central area to it would make more sense.
How did Belarus help Russia?
Humanitarian aid? Nope
Sent forces? Nope
Offered to treat Russian wounded? Nope
All Minsk produces is hot air, and more hot air.
In fact Lukashenko has declared his “non intervention” and neutrality in this conflict.
He is not part of the solution, he is part of the problem.
Even after Putin saved his hide and Russia poured billions into Belarus.
You know Mr Saker, this post reminded me of a debate I came across not long ago.
It was between Zhirinovsky and Buzina, televised in 30.01.2014. Эфир
I wish, my Russian was better, I would set to painstakingly precisely translate it, but as it is, I only GROK about 70 percent of it.
It would be a GREAT asset in English and other languages in order for other peoples to understand some of the underlying currents of this here – land reform…
It is a fascinating slice of the time narrating the events of Maidan…amongst many, many other issues…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1H65fWYoaV8
It also speaks to Your outlook on Belarus…to an extent don`t ya?
Wish both or either of them were still alive at a time like this. The murder of Buzina was the end of the road with the maidanites for me personally back when…
Can You IMAGINE A TELEVISED DEBATE of that quality and magnitude taking place anywhere in the “open democracies” anywhere?
Lukashenka stood up against propaganda:
Lukashenka said that the provocation in Ukrainian Bucha was organized by the British, who arrived from Lvov
“What happened in Bucha – we know who organized this window dressing There were mostly British people who arrived in cars (I think we saw four cars, handed over the numbers to the Russians) from Lviv, filmed in Bucha and then threw them into the information space,” Lukashenka said.
My gut tells me, if it can be trusted after last night’s spicy meal, that Lukashenko is taking his instructions from Moscow on this.
Russia has almost total control of the battle space and the tactical/operational tempo within it. It appears that the Russian Federation would like to keep the actual combat limited to The Ukraine. This simplifies both logistics and economy of forces for the Russian Federation, while creating a veritable ‘black hole’ into which the Empire of Lies is pouring ‘hard to replace’ resources.
Belarus’ apparent neutrality secures a big part of Russia’s western border. At the same time NATO must secure its eastern front as they know that Belarus leans toward Moscow. This further reduces the resources NATO can commit to The Ukraine.
After the partition of The Ukraine, expect that will eventually Belarus will admitted to the Russian Federation as an ‘Autonomous Republic’.
It was always going to end like this. NATO pushed forward with an arrogance born out of successes in the Middle East hoping Russia would accept NATO missile bases on its Ukraine border. Balarus would have been the final target for a regime change and the encirclement of Russia would be complete.
In the peace talks that will come, NATO and the European Union will keep western Ukraine, Russia will get the east as a NATO buffer zone and you the tax payers will spend the next 20 years paying back the money now being thrown at Zelensky and his oligarch cronies.
It could all have been so easily avoided had western politicians not treated Russia with disdain, but as an equal.
The Ukrainians being trained in the UK by the 5eye gaggle will not be training for anything other than sabotage teams. Some may train on long range weapons but the Brit are very good at sabotage. Shifting tactics.
Cheers M
You believe the sabotage actions are the result of the training received in the UK. Thanks. Perfid Albion!
I would not be surprised if SAS -or more likely “ex” SAS – were directly involved in the recent explosions in Crimea. Indeed I would place a hefty bet on it. I am deeply ashamed of the role Brits have played in this whole dirty business with Ukraine. I alo find totally credible that they set up the Bucha hoax. Propaganda and false flags is about all it seems we’re any good at nowadays. If only Russia could capture alive some of the perpetrators.
I’ve always been a Big Picture guy. Just prior to Putin’s speech today, I finished and published my view of our ongoing paradigm change, “The Plundering Nations Last Stand”. Putin didn’t use my terms, but he endorsed the concept. During my historical enquiries, I encountered a 19th Century Frenchman named Frederic Bastiat who penned some very prophetic statements, some of which I used in my essay’s intro, for the political-economy of Plunder debases the entire society of the nation doing so–just look at the Collective West.
Trolls try to argue that China/Russia aim at displacing the Outlaw US Empire as Plundering nations because they’re blind to any other pathway; they just can’t conceive an altruistic nation or group of such nations. Yet, that’s precisely what the Multipolar World is all about. Russia, China, et al, see the Collective West as impediments to their fulfilling their destiny–developing their nations to uplift their people and thus strengthen the nation. IMO, they’d be happy if they continued plundering each other as they’re now doing and just got out of the way. The Rest doesn’t need the West becomes truer daily.
Eventually, the people living where Ukraine is currently will again become prosperous because that’s what Russian policy has designed for them, whether as independent republics or as members of Russia.
After Ukraine is finished, next step should be removal of Baltic states from the world map. There is no a single reason for these “countries” to exist. Baltic sea must be fully controlled by Russia. It’s a huge security issue.
They need a serious reset! Their Russofobia needs to be strictly curtailed, the etnic Russians deserve compensation and of course equal rights. Perhaps a referendum per local region/province is a good idea. If the local Russians want to go their own way or join the RF…
But these countries or cultures need preservation. They seem to be linguistically very distinct, so worth preserving as a protectorate or something.
They will most likely do much better under Russia than under the culturicidal west.
I’m starting to see the Ukraine “battle” in a different light. I’m thinking this battle (not to call it a war in the global perspective) is not only about taking on Russia, China, et. al. , but also about taking down the Ukraine itself. If my memory serves me well, (it does not always) I rememeber the Ukraine being one of the old Soviet Union’s richest, and most powerfull provences; powerfull enough to be a major country on its own. When the Ukraine spun off from the old Soviet bloc, and aligned with the West, it had the potential to be the, or at least one of the most powerful countries in Europe. That is being on par with Germany, France, and Britan. Woops, the western powers can’t have that. So, became the process of reducing the Ukraine down to its present state of misery. The finalization would the “balkanization” of the land into several poor statelets. Russia in seeing this, went ahead to take its “share” of the pie, before it gets overrun with Bidenites, Nazies, and other forms that would cause trouble for Russia’s borders.
Indeed, it used be one of the riches and most powerful provinces of the old Soviet Union, second only to Russia itself. But after it became “independent” in 1991, 30 years of plundering, a.k.a “western-style democracy”, made it one of the poorest countries in Europe. For those parts of it, which will come under Russian jurisdiction, there is still hope thou.
Continuing on with my thought……. The Ukraine did not read their Machiavelli. As soon as it became “independent”, and aligned with the West it was destined to be carved up merely because it was too powerful. Cutting up to pieces is what an existing prevailing power does to an upcoming power that could possibly rival them per Machiavelli. It was never the intent of the U.S. and the rest of the “West” to have the Ukraine as a rich and unified country. As such, the only hope the Ukraine could have had was to serve as a strong kid brother to Russia. In my opinion the die was cast for the Ukraine long ago; it is to be balkanized. Russia is now grabbing a few pieces for itself to serve as a buffer to the rest of the sloppy soup that will come into existance. What only hope the Ukraine may have for itself may be for the Ukrainian people to quit fighting, and do a coup on the evildoers that are now Kiev governing them.
Unfortunately for Ukraine as-it-is, the people with the balls to do a coup are all living in Donbass. And guess what, they’re doing not just a coup, but something that, for all practical intents and purposes, is a civil war. Which they’re going to win, eventually.
“Birth pangs” of a New Europe???
It is a senseless war in a stream of senseless wars that kill the people with the least power.
Do you think it would be any different for any of us if our countries went to war?
No we would be barred from leaving (the Ukrainian 16 to 65 rule would be used) handed a gun and pointed to the front by criminals…we refuse and they would kill us.
Stop obeying the rule of criminals…if the majority of the world stood up to the criminals that rule us then war would end.
Thugs are the biggest cowards…thats why they surrounded themselves with the moron who unquestionably obeys.
Let’s hope this doesn’t spread into an East European conflagration. As much as I dislike the European Union, taking over the former Eastern Block countries prevented them setting about each other trying to get back historically lost lands. It’s unlikely that NATO countries would be allowed to start fighting each other.
Thank you for your analysis of where things stand now. If\when Ukraine is partitioned, does Poland present a future threat to Russia? I believe the U.S. has troops and a military base there. Would Russia, as part of her future security require the U.S. to leave? The poles mostly hate Russians, and I’m sure the empire of lies would raise a big stink if it was told to get out.
Poland is inherently a danger to all its neighbors because of its crazy ideology and identity. There is a reason why this country was so often partitioned. I am also afraid that this ideology+identity are incurable. So the best and most responsible thing to do is to never give these crazies the means to realize their delusions.
Other than that – I say let them be and live as they wish.
My 2cts
Andrey, the problem is that Poland has been a field of political games for foreign powers for several hundred years (since the time of the first free election). Why did the partitions of Poland take place? Because some of the Westernized nobility did not like the fact that the entire Kingdom of Poland became the protectorate of Russia. All the uprising in Poland in the nineteenth century organized masonic and revolutionary elements supported by the West against Russia. The uprising was launched at such moments as to harm Russia, because it carried out military operations in other regions. Of course, stupid Poles took this anti-military ideology from the West as a manifestation of patriotism. On the other hand, looking from a broader perspective, this anti-stubbornness in Poland appeared when the kings were the Catholic, Swedish Vasa dynasty. These are the times of Great Sadness, the times of the Brest Uni, when the Orthodox Church began to be persecuted in Poland. I agree with you that the greatest punishment and hope for Poland would be to leave it to itself to solve its problems on its own. Is it possible ? Yes, but only in a multipolar world when the collective west collapses.
Poland practically didn’t invade their neighbours. After 1989 USA took over Polish foreign politics and did more or less the same as in Ukraine, or 3BS. But even now, despite insane American propaganda, there is growing circle of people understanding what is really going on and why SMO was absolutely needed. No one want to live under nuclear threat. Don’t listen to officials from “Polish” government. They are all the same paid traitors,as in the whole Europe. Average Pole is neutral to Russian, with thread of sympathy: common culture, similiar language. But on one side there was so many memories about attack on 17 September 1939 and further cruelty of Stalinism, on the other side Russians finally saved Poland from Hitler threats (and plans) to annihilate Slavs.
What “crazy ideology” do you mean? Dividing Polish territory (I, II and III the Partition of Poland) was the result of gradually weaked army, not “ideology”. Let’s try to find things to unite us, not to conquer.
I like Medvedev’s “future map’.
It looks like a very strong position for Russia toward a hostile Europe, small country buffer zones between Russia and Poland and the rest of the East-European gangster teams, but also acceptable for Belarus.
For some funny reason I feel a living in Europe is proportional more secure the stronger Russia gets.
Thanks for the profound analysis. There is still a long way to go. Digital ID popping up in many countries toward trans-humanism. Brazilian President Bolsonaro call it “uma corda para cachorro” (a dog leash) :-). The great nation Uganda fell to the Globalist :-(.
The analysis confirm there is only one outcome in Ukraine with variables, but still remain the rest of the ultimatum to NATO to be fulfilled. Its a long way to Tipperary. https://ok.ru/video/22590786184
“For some funny reason I feel a living in Europe is proportionally more secure the stronger Russia gets.”
On a long enough timescale – definitely. In the interim – I see the war spreading into all our lives in yet unimaginable ways. We have all been slowly poisoned and the poison is now boiling up through our skins.
But first – we should all stop drinking that potion and eliminate it`s source.
Then, we may heal…
In a closed report of the CIA analytical department for the US Congress, which was read out last Friday in Washington, it is said that the moral state of the Armed Forces and elite-clan groups of the South and Southeast Ukraine is extremely low, in addition, there are data on separate negotiations of industrial and economic groups of Odessa and the Odessa region with the GUR GS of the Russian Federation on surrender without a fight, in the event of a quick environment of the Nikolaev region and the beginning of the Odessa coverage.
According to the CIA experts and analysts, which are confirmed by the technical data of the NSA, the reserve of strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be enough for 5-6 weeks, taking into account the organization of Zagragdi Rods and authorizing more mass executions, sabotage orders of soldiers and officers for 7-8, but not more.
The experience of the last 45 days has shown that the supply of modern weapons did not have any productive effect, except for the increase in death among the civilian population of Donbass.
According to the results of the meeting of the Congress committee, it was decided to activate the entire US intelligence community for the subversive activities of sleeping and mothballed agents in the Russian Federation, which were introduced or recruited from 2006 to 2020.
In particular, to activate the work on sabotage of the government, Congress considers it possible and necessary to activate the entire network within the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Culture, and the Ministry of Economic Development.
For heating an internal split in the regions and large cities, millionaires decided to use the possibilities of lobbyists from pharmaceuticals among the Ministry of Health with an emphasis on vaccination, revaccination, as well as a return to co -covid restrictions in a number of regions of the Russian Federation.
In addition, the congressmen decided to correctly activate the foci of social stress through regional separatism and extremism in the media and social networks. All of the above events should go into the peak phase of development by early September.
This will help to weaken the Kremlin’s negotiation position as much as possible, according to a bicameral consensus, during negotiations on the surrender of Ukraine in the second half of November.
Andrei, I’ve been ‘lurking’ on your blog for years. I don’t recall ever having commented before, so I read your moderation policies before commenting. They were as entertaining as your regular posts! Especially your ‘pride’ ban.
So obviously the Washington neocons are the linchpin, the prime movers.
I often call them ‘neoprogressicons.’ With respect to Russia they really are a Uniparty. Under Obama, the GOP element renounced their traditional fiscal conservatism in return for Democrats renouncing anti-war advocacy. Remember Code Pink, circa 2004, screaming ‘Regime change begins at home’ and ‘no blood for oil’? Look what a warmonger they elected, when they had the chance in 2008.
If the neocons and their policies can be uprooted, NATO becomes an empty shell. True, there will be latter-day Pilsudskis out there along the Baltic shaking their puny fists in impotent nationalist rage. (By the way, thanks for the Intermarium link, I hadn’t heard of that, or Prometheism either! The Poles really have some nerve, don’t they?) Those elements could be diverted, mollified and even set against one another, by encouraging them to gobble up adjacent tracts of 404.
The EU’s comprador ruling class would then have every incentive to keep the gas flowing, ignore sanctions and keep their peasantry from revolting.
I have a question: Why does there need to be a rump Banderastan? Even more to the point, why should it be centered on Kiev? Why should Nazis rule the birthplace of Mother Russia? If Ukraine’s going to be dismembered, might as well do it well and thoroughly.
I don’t know how to get rid of the neocons without getting rid of Washington itself. The problem is that the real decision-makers in the War Party are mostly unelected. Congress-critters like Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio are just front men – spokesmen and PR operatives – for what we’ve come to call the Deep State. It seems the old Krushchev suspicion – that elected presidents have limited sway, and real policy is made at CIA and DOD – was either correct, or at any rate has come true today.
Since you live in the US, in Florida no less, I’d like you someday to explain in greater detail why even a pro-Trump series of red electoral waves would not uproot the neoprogressicons (if indeed that’s your view, I’m extrapolating a bit.) My personal view is that Americans are much too soft and complacent to run the physical and other risks necessary to carry off a revolution.
Why does there need to be a rump Banderastan? Even more to the point, why should it be centered on Kiev? Why should Nazis rule the birthplace of Mother Russia? If Ukraine’s going to be dismembered, might as well do it well and thoroughly.
Well, for one thing because there are quite a few people in the Ukraine who want it. Yes, Kiev is the mother of all Russian cities, but I always believed that modern reality trumps any historical arguments. To invade Kiev would require a major military operation and many, many people would die. And Kiev run by russophobic Nazis is no worse than Moscow run by russophobic Bolsheviks. Yes, in a fair world, Kiev, a 100% Russian city historically, would never be run by Nazis. The question is this: how many Russian lives are you willing to sacrifice in order to correct this injustice? Speaking only for myself, my reply would be “zero”.
I care about the living a heck of a lot more than about the dead, or the distant past.
One more thing: all the riches of the Ukraine are located in the East and the South. A small Banderastan centered around Kiev would be a mostly rural entity which would not have the resources to threaten Russia.
And, how knows, maybe with time the inhabitants of this small chunk of land will come back to their senses (most of the Nazis will emigrate anyway).
The point is that I don’t believe that Russia should carry any more ballast than strictly needed for the safety and well-being of her people. Not a gram (or a millimeter) more.
Cheers
That actually makes perfect sense. From far aloft, the Saker’s keen (not to mention pragmatic) eyes saw right through my knee-jerk historical romanticism.
The proposed partition map is optimistic. Europe won’t be allowed to take ukraine.
A more realistic map, is that russia will carve out all the parts it wants, so a buffer state will be formed, but the rest will be another israel. A terrorist state which will be fomenting unrest and criminality in europe, like the other israels in the middle east and British isles.
One aspect I’d like hear more about is the future role of Belorussia in all this. It’s location could not be more strategic. For example, won’t they want a chunk of divided Ukraine for themselves, or indeed all the parts that Medvedev’s map apportions to Poland? Wouldn’t they be a far surer bet for Russia to keep NATO out, which letting Poland into Ukraine would do, thus defeating one of the main purposes of the SMO (keep NATO out of Ukraine where it could install missiles that directly threaten Russia’s heartland)? Ukraine apart, Belorussia has a huge role in any future standoff or war in Poland Finland and the Baltics. So how do you see its future in the strategic standoff with the US in eastern/northern Europe?
Belarus should extend to the Baltic. Lithuania disappears again: it used to be part of Russia. Kaliningrad will connect to Russia by road, rail, and pipelines through friendly Belarus. Nordstream 3 may connect Kaliningrad to a very apologetic Germany.
Saker,
I hope you’re doing well.
Speaking about the future of the (rump) Ukraine I have to say we’re engaging in full speculation. I often wondered whether the Russian leadership has drawn up plans for the eventual partitioning of Ukraine and whether they have a vision of how this would proceed. Let’s assume they do.
We can safely say that Russia will reintegrate southern Ukraine which Lenin had illegally torn away from Russia and Russia has shed much blood to wrestle away from the Tatars and their Ottoman overlords. What I’m not that clear about is how will Russia proceed in the north, that is, the part of Ukraine northwest of the Kharkov region. I assume these regions will also be reintegrated with Russia in some form or the other.
The map Medvedev posted does seem like a good solution. As for the westernmost regions of the Ukraine, I agree with the Saker when he says that Russia doesn’t need this den of Banderism. It would be a noose around Russia’s back, not to mention that these lands do not belong in the Russian world. What Russia has to make sure of is that Galicians can never again muster enough strength to threaten Russia and Russians.
In the situation where Russia controls 90 percent of Ukraine’s most productive regions (in the east and the south) it’s safe to say that the deindustrialized and resource-poor, landlocked Galicia would not pose a threat to Russia and the Russian people.
“But… but… – you will say – since they are members of NATO, they cannot be attacked!.”
Sadly there are people that delusional. Double sad that they are running the 3 Baltic states. Hey you three dumb dodos go look at a map. Okay NATO in all it might & glory has 2 choices if Russia invades:
1) Go nuclear.
2) Go home.
If you really think that the west and NATO will go nuclear for your sorry arses then you are dumb as dog poop.
Fantastic essay.
Every time I got to a stumbling point – an issue that wasn’t cut and dried and needed further clarification – you addressed it succinctly in the following paragraph.
We know what Russia is going to do. The real question is what the neocons/neolibs (one and the same) are going to do. Not too hard to figure out: the proven tendecy of suicidal stupidity is always to double down*.
* repeatedly doubling-down is a geometric progression
Let me remind the stage of Ukraine before this year. In 2021 Ukraine consumed energy (end using) 33% less than in 2013. And when houses needed their heating and lights we know excatly the reason for such heavy decline: industrial production and real economy transporting has collapsed during those years.
So much about “Switzerland of Slavic nations”. 🤔
Russia already spoke against the idea of Poland gaining any territory in Ukraine after the SMO. It actually said that the U.S. and Poland were hatching such a plan; the top Russian spy authority said so publicly. Soon after, Lukashenko and Putin also made the same point from Belarus. They all presented this information (or warning) as an accusation, not as something that Russia or Belarus can accept. The top Russian spy was alerting his public audience (in Russia) to this ‘plan.’ It was clear that Russia does not agree with, approve, or countenance such a division of Ukraine.
If we consider why they disapproved such a plan then (months ago), the biggest reason that comes to mind is that the SMO would then have benefited at least two NATO countries who would gain a lot of territory thanks to the SMO (which was launched against NATO expansion too). Maybe Russia would be willing to agree later to such partitions. It would be erratic since they already expressed themselves about it as mentioned above, but it’s possible anyway; they have said things in the past which later were contradicted by actions, i.e., the SMO action itself. By the same token, such a partition acceptance from the West would be exculpatory of Russia before the international community, because it would be accepting that the SMO has been beneficial to at least two NATO countries in that case. It would not be just Russia that won (!).
I don’t think Russia would agree to such a partition; most likely, the public pronouncements they have made against such a partition do reflect a firm opposition to that. Putin, personally, would also lose a lot of image in the eyes of some, or many, people (inside Russia even), I think. After all, he did say on February 25 that all of Ukraine was part of historical Russia and allowing such a partition would be going against both the letter and the spirit of that speech.
In this quote below from the post (via Martyanov), the SVR makes clear that they are against that partition of Ukraine. It is actually denouncing those “plans” again. Specifically, the SVR is here against the “developing plans for the division and occupation of at least part of the Ukrainian lands” because, through said plans, “Washington and its allies” are working to keep “the colonial system of world domination.” So, it’s the same warning or accusation that they made months ago. With this repetition from them, together with their explanation of the meaning (“world domination”) of this division-occupation plan, it’s more sure that they are against it and that Russia won’t allow it (we can conclude that it wants it less than those neocons):
“Obviously, the West is not concerned about the fate of the Kyiv regime. As can be seen from the information received by the SVR, Western curators have almost written it off and are in full swing developing plans for the division and occupation of at least part of the Ukrainian lands,” he said. However, according to the general, much more is at stake than Ukraine: for Washington and its allies, it is about the fate of the colonial system of world domination.”
Why do Poles need lands inhabited by Ruthenians? Why do Poles need Volhynia and Galicia. It’s all in the past and won’t come back. On the other hand, it attracts the sick who currently rule Poland. Why ? Because they are sick people. I hope Russia will unite Russian lands by reaching the Bug. It will go on … another stop, the Labe – here the pre-Slavic lands end.
I think you said two things whick seem contradictory. Peharps I did not fully understand what you meant because english is not my mother tongue.
I will explain my point. You said that the svr makes statements only when they have extremely reliable information. But then you said that the partition of ukraine is almost impossible as long as the neocons remain in power and that the neocons won’t lose their power grip anytime soon.
So my question is this: how does the information revealed by the svr make sense?
A truly astonishing work for which I sincerely thank the author.
As a 57 year old american, someone who was even at the age of 30 so proud and patriotic that I would nearly always choke up emotionally hearing the national anthem who has now, after a long and difficult process arrived to a place where I recognize the genuinely satanic malice of my own criminal cabal calling itself “government”.
We americans collectively are due for a reckoning. It does break my heart, however I know the pain is coming, and that we deserve it. We the people are also guilty for not using our God given gifts to recognize and snuff out this evil which rules over us.
I do believe that humanity shall emerge victorious at the end of this time of war, and regardless of the cost even to my own self, I am pleased that Goodness will prevail and peaceful, friendly and just global governance and cooperation will become normalized once the beast has been defeated.
From the Great Ann Barnhardt’s latest podcast: If we are soon to face a real, full-on World War III, the worst possible outcome would be for the USA to win.
I am a US citizen, and agree with the above. Frankly, I believe many other in the US feel the same.
Something that has been irritating my tiny ignorant mind, . .
Apparently the Kiev regime wants to create another Chernobyl- or Fukushima- style disaster at Energodar / Zaporozhye. Shelling the decades old, but still running, and very large, NPP there.
What keeps the Russian MoD from carrying out a USA/NATO style destruction of the neighborhood from which these shells are being lobbed? Flatten [Nikopol?] with 250-kilogram packages of high explosives?
I know the overall goal is to capture the Ukraine more or less intact, to save on rebuilding costs and poor diplomatic relations, but I would think this case stands apart from the majority of the SMO. Of course Kiev will complain and whine about this, but then again, they have lied about it until now. That won’t change.
After cleansing of Ukraine by Neo Nazis + Banderites I surely hope Russian peoples and Ukrainians can get back together. They are blood brothers, they share a long history together. From Rurikids to the Mongols invasion they were one people. When Mongol Hordes came the Rus peoples find a way out together through hardship and intelligence. Then Romano Catholic Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth came because in part Slavs were Eastern Orthodox and they tried to convert them by force. However, the ties between those 2 peoples are stronger and deeper than meet the eye. Right now is an historical accident artificially created and won’t last long.
For our French speaking audience, hard to translate very long:
The biggest psyop in humand kind history:
Plus grande opération de manipulation des masses dans l’histoire de l’humanité.
https://cf2r.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Edito-60-Propagande-Ukraine.pdf
@ Saker
Thanks, as always, for such powerful write up.
Yet another tour de force!
Bertold Bretch quote was a beautiful grand finale.
Lots to process and dissect before making comments to a post that said it all.
In the meantime, you reminded me of another quote from Bertold Bretch.
“There are men who struggle for a day and they are good.
There are men who struggle for a year and they are better.
There are men who struggle many years, and they are better still.
But there are those who struggle all their lives: These are the indispensable ones.”
— Bertolt Brecht
———————-
That fits the Russian people.
Cheers.
Lone Wolf
The inevitable partition of Ukraine will play itself out over a period of years with some intermediate scenarios dissolving into the ultimate solution. We are not looking at a series of rapid annexations.
There must be a rump Ukraine so Europe will have a place to send refugees back to. I do not think Ukraine’s neighbors will land grab immediately. They will “assist with administration and humanitarian assistance.” Z already set this up with his grant of immediate citizenship and public service jobs to Poles.
The UN may or may not have a role for a period of time.
What will not happen is NATO lifting a finger to save Ukraine. The quote from the foreign minister is the most honest thing I have seen come out of Kiev in ages: “…waiting for us to fail and for their problems to disappear on their own.”
If this war is contained, I predict we will still be discussing the partition of Ukraine several years from now.
Saker
Do you know what has happened to Auslander?
He posted over in MFC a couple days ago:
/moveable-feast-cafe-2022-08-13/#comment-1136633
Here’s hoping and praying for his full recovery, and treats for his beloved collie dogs!
And apologies for being off topic here.
He posted something in the Cafe some days ago.
bp
I wish Ukraine could serve as a blood sacrifice to bury the hatchet between the Russian and Polish people. I used to live in Poland, and have known many Russians. The hatred between these people, who basically have very similar personalities, is off the charts. If they could join together and cooperate in fighting the corruption of the West, the world would be blessed.
“I wish Ukraine could serve as a blood sacrifice to bury the hatchet between the Russian and Polish people.”
Bad wish or unfortunate phrasing. Anyway, that “hatchet” is bigger now than last year. If next Russia were to let them have a piece of Ukraine, Poland would accept it and maybe should begin to bury the hatchet, but I think likely they would accept that “blood sacrifice” and keep the enmity (saying Russia lost or had to concede those lands)…but Russia is not going to give them anything, apparently. The way things are, the SVR quote implies that Poland could even be attacked if they continue “developing plans for the division and occupation of at least part of the Ukrainian lands”, etc.
I sort of disagree, and I would hope they wouldn’t do that. Hundreds of years of wars are a hard thing to leave behind.
And if you think it’s just the Poles that suffer from this, you are sadly mistaken. It goes both ways.
Repentance. And He will forgive if the sincere repentance is there.
As I read history Poland self-inflicted their own wounds by pride. Pride is a sin. But repentance is one of the most difficult acts for proud people.
The Poles must take a look in the mirror and see the bigger picture and understand Russia’s role in history.
I see Putin/Russia understanding Poland, the Poles and their role, but I dont see Poles understanding their own history and the world around them, only selfishness, and this will only hurt you even more.
Russians hate Poles and vice versa. Russians are viewed by Poles as basically barbarians (orcs) who love to rape and pillage. Poles are viewed by Russians as “Slavic Judases” who are too westernized and refused to accept Russian leadership of all Slavs.
you guys watched way too much lord of the rings and live in a Hollywood world
Art imitates life dude, read some 1984.
Cheers M
Life imitates art.
Artists in particular often have a very clear vision of the future.
And yet that “barbarian” nation owned most of Poland for over a 100 years. And several generations of Polish intellectuals made their home and careers in Russia. While those “barbarians” set a gold standard in culture for over a century. To be generous, while Poland didn’t. I think that Poland was the Ukraine of the 19th and 20th centuries. They built their national identity out of Russia-hate. Without that they had little to offer.Instead of being smart and realizing when you are a smaller nation next to a giant,you look for ways to be friends and use that friendship to build your nation economically. They have since at least the 1990’s looked to harm Russia whenever they could. And then to pretend they are the victim of Russia.They like to think Russia wants to attack them. When instead Russia would be happy to have a great wall between them instead.
When there was talk during WWII about Poland being brought into the USSR as a republic. Stalin said that the Poles would not accept that.That they should remain their own nation. Russia hasn’t changed their opinion.They don’t have any claims on Polish territory (though there is a strip of eastern Poland that used to be part of ancient Rus). But as we see there are elements in Poland that do lust after Russian,Belarus,and Ukrainian territory. Fate will not be kind to Poland in the future unless they look at the map of the world,and understand that they exist in Eastern Europe next to Russia. And learn to act like good neighbors.
Uncle Bob, who in Russia created Jecyn and Gorbachev? Russians? Who in Poland created the Solidarity movement? Polish people ? It is not the West that hates the Slavs. It was not Poles and Russians who murdered the Indians, it was not Poles and Russians who were conquistadors, it was not Poles and Russians who traded slaves and robbed Africa and Asia as colonial countries. We have nothing on our conscience as opposed to you. It was the West who successfully promoted Russophobic moods in Poland in order to quarrel the Slavs. Now, when you are threatened with hunger and cold, it is not you who are to blame for it, but the Poles. Uncle Bob, do your conscience. It was the West that destroyed the Warsaw Pact, the countries of people’s democracy, destroyed industry here and made our countries markets for their goods to survive the next 30 years. But the time of the West is running out 500 years later and you will suffer the consequences of your actions. Not Poles, Ukrainians or Russians are to blame, but only you Westerners and your ancestors.
I do not like the idea of Ukraine being partitoned, beyond a Ukraine / Russia divide. Then again with this sketch coming from Medvedev I expect there is more to it than meets the eye.
Although the Ukraine battle seems to coming to an end, the war is far from over.
To me it looks like the Empires long game is to put Europe into interwar depression and fermentive missery, to start up the ‘womb’ so to speak. All the death and misery over the coming years will be blamed on Russia.
But time is running short, and there will be no Chinese defeat before a Russian defeat. There is very limited options for such a result. I become very nervous with this talk about shutting all Russians out of EU, as if they where some kind of disease …
Looks to me that the map would give Transcarpathia to Hungary. Which is not almost nothing. Not sure if the Ruthenians would agree.
Carving up Ukraine without the input of Ukrainians is just more hubris. Let them have referendums. Let them have a voice, finally.
Dear Andrei,
I “religiously” read you since la long time. From my primitive Quebec, a French lost province in a nazi state (Canada), I enjoy your skill, your sense of humour and especially, your military knowledge! It is a pleasure to read you and to, like Hannah Arendt wrote, “to practice the action of thinking” after reading you!
Slow is best! I can refer to a fairy tail (The cat and the cook) from Ivan Krylov where Vaska the cat is slowly eating the chicken he was suppose to “watch”! And the cook who taught he was so cleaver to ask a cat to guard a chicken!
I think Ukraine is historically Russian, and Russians treat captured Ukie soldiers as brothers who lost their ways. Anti-Russian hatred has been implanted and can be removed, notorious examples Illia Kyva or Nadiya Savchenko who went from rabid Russophobe 180 degrees to a Russophile.
Russia only needs to deal with people who commited real crimes rest of the Nazis are salvageable. Once they remove sources of anti-russian propaganda, Ukraine could be fully restored and become an ally of Russia like Chechnya, also a former enemy. The fast that West is heading into corporate feudalism can help Ukrainians decide which world they prefer to live in – somewhat autocratic but still reasonable Russian World or Western Liberal Hell.
Russian unilateralism and NATO/West irrelevancy was obvious to me once Putin signed the documents recognizing the LDNR’s independence.
I’m Polish – we don’t want any of Ukraine’s territories. I don’t think anyone wants them except some irrelevant irredentists. Polish minority in Ukraine is tiny – there is not a single region in Ukraine with a substantial number of Poles and the ones that are there are mostly Ukrainian-ized anyway. If there’s any territory we’d want it would be small parts of Belarus and Lithuania where there are still substantial numbers of Poles in some areas.
I’ve seen this map before awhile back. I’m assuming it’s Russian propaganda manufactured to goad Poland and others to get in and help Russia with the Ukraine problem. But from our point of view it’s best to just let Russians and Ukrainians kill each other.
“But from our point of view it’s best to just let Russians and Ukrainians kill each other.”
I hate to tell you this but if your country is providing weapons and spaces for training then it just isn’t Russians and Ukrainians killing each other as Poland is directly involved in the conflict already. What Poland has done up to this point is already cause for a declaration of war.
@ Greifenberg on August 16, 2022 · at 11:20 pm EST/EDT
I hate to tell you this but if your country is providing weapons and spaces for training then it just isn’t Russians and Ukrainians killing each other as Poland is directly involved in the conflict already. What Poland has done up to this point is already cause for a declaration of war.
—————————————————-
Spot on, Greifenberg!
Adequate response to what posters have been describing above as the “Polish identity.”
No responsibility at all for their Russophobic hatemongering, and their blatant participation in the war as frontline attack dogs for US/UK/NATO. It is through Poland that most of the weapons and ammunition killing civilians in Donbass are coming to Ukraine.
They are accomplices in the carnage, and they should be made accountable.
Lone Wolf
They’ll be made as accountable as the Brits are, getting off Scot free, no pain for the elites that merchandize death. So while Russia dances with being nice to Ukrainians Brits train Ukrainians to kill Russians with absolutely zero consequences. Or are the Brit elite suffering like the people of Ukrainian? Having suffered Brit Yokedom, that they can direct attacks against Russia with impunity, I don’t have words to express my disgust.
The Ukies have an offensive prepared in front of Izum(sp) five Brigades, tank, armoured, and arty, for a country with little fuel, they sure get around, and totally unmolested, and they don’t have air cover…..if they get all those 152/155 shells at that ammo dump…..just extending the suffering all around.
Point of note, less targets hit in country by Russia mean one of two things…..less things to destroy (I doubt) or the ammo dump attacks and airbase destruction have reduced the ability to attack at will.
Cheers M
Poland has sent almost 2,000 fighters since February 24 and 643 have been killed by August 5, according to Russian stats.
https://www.minareport.com/kremlin-publishes-list-of-foreign-mercenaries-killed-in-ukraine/
nobody sends mercenaries – they go from their own volition
Poles are listed as in 1st place regarding number of mercenaries killed per country, as of August 5.
These are the top ten in “eliminated” mercs:
Poland (643), US (241), Canada (213), Georgia (195), Romania (156), UK (141), Syria (97), Belorussia (85), Croatia (83), France (75)
https://www.minareport.com/kremlin-publishes-list-of-foreign-mercenaries-killed-in-ukraine/
Abra does not represent the voice and thinking of all Poles, but the group that was the beneficiary of the Sanacja governments before World War II and the governments installed in Poland by America after 1989. Abra and his ilk fail to notice that Poland has become a colony of America, with one goal set. – doing to spite Russia. Poland is ruled by the Washington State Department. Not all Poles are Russophobes, there is a large group of Russia kind. Unfortunately, pro-Russian politicians are killed (like Andrzej Lepper) or imprisoned without sentence (like Mateusz Piskorski). Most in Poland want to live normally, cooperate with everyone, including Russia, and do not see it as an aggressor. Unfortunately, the Washington dictate set other tasks for Poland.
Where did I say I support USA? I support independence. What *you* don’t understand is that Russia and Germany would gladly takeover Poland and split it in two between themselves (like in 1939). Not being pro-Russia doesn’t automatically mean being pro-USA.
I really appreciate this article with your many insights that answer so many of my questions. I would also appreciate more information on your comment that part of today’s racism in the West is Judaic/Zionist. It’s confusing to me to unravel it from anti-Semitism, and particularly to understand how the IDF sent trainers to work with Azov. I also appreciated the values reflected in your Moderation Policy. Knowing little about Orthodoxy, I would appreciate learning more about your strong stance against Roman Catholicism.
Ever since Nazism was invented, if you scratch a Nazi, Zionist blood comes out. The evil Nazi has been the most useful foil for Zionist propaganda for the past 80 years.
We’ve seen this in the USA where the only real white supremacist groups were created by the ADL so they could use it to raise more money and pass more repressive legislation against free speech and firearm ownership. Such groups are nearly entirely populated by undercover alphabet soup agency informants all spying on each other, not unlike The Man Who Was Thursday.
In order to understand the history of the pasto 200 years you have to understand the concept of the Zionist dialectic. They invent both finance capitalism and communism and play them against each other while directing attention away from traditional economic and political systems found in Christian, Bhuddist, and Muslim countries.
Nazism is not the answer to Zionism. It is the trap built by Zionists for the opposition to fall into. Therefore we do see Jewish oligarchs in Ukraine bankrolling the Ukrainian Nazi movement, because it serves their interests.
We see Jewish oligarchs in Russia Poland USA and every country in the world. The question is why them in such a transparent way. The answer is that someone wants to put the whole blame on them and make them scapegoats. Who are those Guys?. Maybe they are to much pious and the least suspected guys disguised in dresses?. Maybe what is deep state all about.
The solution is simple. Instead of trying to figure out antisemitism, study semitism. What is this Jewish philosophy? You’ll see why people are against it.
The Jews behind the Azov grouping are European-Turk-Asiatic from the Ukrainian steppes, not semitic peoples. The semitism trope is yet another false dialectic.
In the short term a partition seems very likely. In the long term I don’t think a Ukrainian rump state has any chance of lasting. This region of Europe has constantly shifting borders (mostly between Poland, Germany, and Russia). I wonder what the long term planning looks like from the Russian perspective. I don’t think the Russians need a Ukrainian state but in the long term the Ukrainians will realize how much they need Russia.
The combined west mimic Turkey’s operation olive branch. Annex and fortify another sovereign’s land then proceed to drain all the nourishment from the olive, leaving the dead branch as subsistence for the hapless interred natives.
Russia has further strengthened alliances with their allies , forget new ones, all looking for a seat at the New Big Table while the combined West thrashes its tail, wallow in their misfortune and act out The Last Supper.
I think the Kiev regime is in some ways an artificial American creation rather then a healthy, normal government. I don’t think this government’s pronouncements can be relied on as a measure of Ukrainian opinion, which is muzzled by the oppression. Once this government falls, it may be easier to see the actual Ukrainian public opinion, and have a sense where the future may lie.
The Western governments are also in a perilous state and may finally be facing a change.
While the ideal end state would be the compete denazification and reclamation of all of Ukraine, the Kremlin must also consider the law of diminishing returns. The further west they go, the more time, money, men, and material it is going to take to conquer, rebuild, and control it.
There is SOME truth to the Neocon plan to draw Russia into the imbroglio and bleed her dry.
The problem is that Ukraine currently is incapable of surrender because the decision makers in the USA have no personal skin in the game. If Ukraine gets completely wrecked they don’t care.
This war ultimately has to be taken to the Western brain centers, if it is ever to be conclusively won.
I expect the Kremlin is devoting their best thinkers to the question of how to defang the USA and NATO without killing every last Ukrainian in the process. There has to be a shorter path to strategic victory.
Every international conflict has 3 dimensions: political, economical and military. The main cause of Ukraine conflict was western’s desire to split and take over Russia and it’s resources. The main cause of the end of Ukraine confict will be economical too: banksters don’t want to throw money at a lost cause.
Ukraine conflict will end in September after the elections. The key issue is not the map, whether east Kiev becomes a part of Russia or not, it’s the verifiable guarantees that Russia wants from her new neighbors, Poland and Romania, for her security.
Flimsy Ukraine military or Nazis are not the main concern. The nightmare is Risis, Russian isiz, the Russian speaking Ukrainians who despise Russian government. Dima mentions his brother in law and Russian and Belarusian infantries in Seversk. Ukraine civil war started in 2014, or earlier. It will continue for years or decades to come. Lenin’s gift keeps on giving.
Elections in sept? Where? Tks
4 gov’ts basically fell, UK, Italy, Estonia, Bulgaria.
They fell in warm weather, will vote freezing. Forget exit polls!
“Ukraine conflict will end in September after the elections.”
I don’t think so. It is like people saying “Covid” and the restrictions would be over once Trump was out. There is something much bigger beyond the individual puppets and governments in power.
A schoolboy in Saint Petersburg, Russia comes home and tells his mother that he got an “F” grade in geography. She is shocked and asks him what happened. The boy tells her that his teacher asked him what the distance is between Saint Petersburg and Tallinn, the capital of Estonia. The boy replied that it is about six hours by tank.
“… but now not by German Nazis but by (mostly) US Neocons (which, of course, are typical racist Nazis, except their racism is Anglo and Judaic/Zionist).”
Exactly, these pathological types can emerge from any (and all) quarters to seek whatever divisive the niche of the day is available to fester and breed their malcontent and opportunism. If they emerged with a nazi swastika in one lifetime, or an apartheid “judaic/zionist” hat in another, it it all much the same. Just look at occupied Palestine. Ill-informed bias and elite-orientated exceptionalism care little regarding the extant uniform dress codes in vogue—like the current trash running Ukraine, they are all ultimately poor actors on the scrounge. As long as their respective caste system hierarchy gets its privilaged ‘outlaw’ access (all areas) to the treasure of others then their illusions of self-justified dominance are maintained.
Remember those couple of weeks of white-hot outrage in the London parliament when the US decided to cut-n-run from Kabul? That was an instructive little window into the degenerate soul of those types and their semi-organized nefarious ambitions.
And, btw, I liked the fridge-tv pun.
I wonder WHY Russia is using only 10% of it’s might. Why not, say, 30% with still a big reserve and a fast win.
Andrei, another translation of that unforgettable epilogue spoken by the actor who plays ‘Ui’:
“…but don’t rejoice too soon, you men.
Though some men did stand up at last and stopped the bastard,
The bitch that bore him is on heat – again.”
The Greater Poland would be a new problem to Russia, instead of Ukraine. Why do Anglo-Zionists plant it – what do you think?
Poles have always been willing to die for the Vatican’s and English interests.
Unfortunately, my friend, you are right. The influence of the Vatican intensified after the death of the last Jagiellonian. As a consequence, Polish-Moscow wars and Poles in Moscow. Well, after that, Russia became an empire, and Poland began to decline.
You’re the straightest thinkin’, fasted shootin’ Russkie that side of the Peko’s Andrei.
You must have taken the right turn at Albuquerque if you ask me.
Good day Saker,
I was wondering if you remember how your grandmother was saying this: “the borders of Russia are found at the end of a Cossack’s spear“.
The only thing I could come up with after a quick search was this quote from Ekatarina II:
Границы государства Российского проходят по острию казачьих сабель.
Greetings
Have a look at
July 28, 2022 Ukraine: A tale of two Victorias
By G. Murphy Donovan
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/07/ukraine_a_tale_of_two_victorias.html
“Spartz sees the Cyrillic on the wall in Kiev. ”
“Note also that Odessa is a traditional Soviet destination resort with strong ties to Russian elites. If and when Odessa falls, it may go, like Kherson, with a Fifth Column whimper, not a fight.
And then maybe it’s game over for Ukraine.”
Colonel Donovan was the former director of research and Russian (Soviet) studies for USAF Intelligence.
A sober assessment. Reminds me of Col. Macgregor. So there is a split actually going on, and even if Kiev fires all the SBU for collusion and treason they cannot stop it.
Economically and militarily, the proposed division of Ukraine does not make any sense. He does not solve the problem of the Nazi in Euopie. IMHO is part of a propaganda war to obscure the purpose of the SMO, with the ultimate goal of ending World War II. After all, the division of Ukraine resembles the division of Europe into spheres of influence after 1945. Its consequence was the escape of the Nazis to West Germany, the USA and their use by America to achieve their goals. The West revealed its Nazi face in Ukraine in 2014. Is it possible to liquidate the Nazi? Yes, because the rest of the world has powerful weapons, more powerful than the army. These weapons are raw materials (Africa, Latin America), energy (Russia), consumer industrial products (China). What does the collective West have? Nothing, he’s vulnerable.
Not agreement capable or not contract capable makes more sense than non agreement capable, imo.
I think we must accept that there’s not going to be any “internationally acceptable” solution to the territory which until this year comprised Ukraine, for many years. As Putin and Lavrov have said several times, the West is simply not agreement capable. This is a given. Once the war is won, Russia must decide for itself what it want to do with Ukraine. It holds all the cards. Maybe Poland, Hungary and Romania could be offered back land that was formally theirs, but Russia would be bound to impose conditions that would guarantee their demilitarisation and I cannot see these being acceptable. Maybe Hungary could be offered some compromise? Russia must assure its own security and then allow the West to fume and fester on the sidelines. A long term solution will only be possible once the present Washington elite lose their hold on their European vassals. Russia can do a lot to hasten this process, but in the end it’s inevitable. Western Europe is in any case doomed. The rot of “wokeness has gone too far to be reversed. The native populations will be a minority within a few decades and the squables among the hotch potch of disparate peoples that make up their citizenry, will soon doom what’s left of these nations to irrelevance on the global stage. Russia will be in a strong position to attract the most talented among those young enough and determined enough to seek new pastures. There really is only one winner.
There is a major effort underway to actually partition the Russian Federation.
National minorities of Russian Federation discuss its deimperialization in Prague
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/07/25/national-minorities-of-russian-federation-discuss-its-deimperialization-in-prague/
The sheer hypocrisy, and unlimited megalomania is astounding!
Some writers in even this blog appeal to so-called “free” peoples of Europe to dissolve every nation-state in the name of religion. This is exactly the same tactic of these and the EU Pan-Europe of the Regions.
The modern nation-state is under assault, actually since 1783, and from within – entire agro-industrial economies are being bulldozed – look at the Netherlands and Germany just for example.
It looks like the Empire has decided to end the Nation State completely, and actually target Number 1 is the USA which is on it’s knees. China and Russia are target Number 2, while all of Europe is simply roadkill.
To play the enemy’s game is a loosing option!
Let’s not forget that the west part of the Ukraine, ‘Galicia’, is populated by lots and lots of Gypsies. As soon as the Ukranians were allowed to enter the EU, Slovakia, Poland and the Czech Republic got flooded by Gypsies, who travel from one border country to another in order to collect money donations of the EU in each of these countries, feigning that they came from the ‘war torn’ Ukraine. As soon as they were evicted out of, say, the Czech Republic, they moved to another EU country. And so on. From a Gypsy perspective this being on the move constantly + grab what you can get for free from the EU is quite smart. But as soon as the Gypsies are pushed back into their ‘home country’ Galicia, the troubles with the unadaptable life style of Gypsies will not end. So it is the question, whether countries like Poland or Rumania will be so eager to get more land (back) & will be so happy with a large increase in their population with people who haven’t ever adapted and never wiill adapt to a typical bourgeois way of life. Slovakia is for sure not eager to get back the small Carpatian country of Ruthenia, which is as poor as if the people who live there still dwell in the Stone Age.
Much would need to happen for such a map to be possible – at least:
– EU would need to change dramatically, or Poland, Romania etc. would need to be out of the EU
– Poland, Romania etc. would need to become independent countries, possibly with an alliance, but not in NATO, thinking for themselves, not acting as currently, being torn between USA, Brussels, Berlin and Paris, depending on which political party is in charge.
– There would need to be an agreement between Poland, Romania et al. about the division. Currently, it is impossible politically, with any political parties in power in those countries
– mini Ukraine with Kiev cannot stay independent as it would be a terrorist state, it would have to be controlled by Russia and integrated into Russia in time.
I judge all the above as unlikely. As such, my scenarios are:
1) Russia achieves a total victory in Ukraine. It integrates it partially into Russia, with the rest fully controlled as a puppet state, to be integrated later. Europe grudgingly goes back slowly to business as usual over several decades. Insurgencies to be dealt with by Russia in Ukraine. Secret operations of USA / UK to destabilise the country. An iron rule in Western Ukraine, with deportations, maybe a new GULAG system.
2) Russia does not achieve a total victory. A western Ukraine supported by NATO and the EU is created, with eastern Ukraine integrated into Russia. A new iron curtain is created. Russia is fully cut off from Europe and forced to turn South and East. There is a constant threat of insurgencies etc. funded by the USA / UK in Eastern Ukraine, but not as much as in 1), due to full decoupling.
I think the EU wants option 1), as any existing Ukraine is a big political and moral problem for the EU, with all the promises made. I think USA and UK want option 2), as this will drain both Europe and Russia more, helping UK/USA to stay ahead and keeps Russia from rebuilding its military potential for decades. The option discussed in the article is the best option for Europe and Russia (and perhaps the world), but not for the UK and USA. As long as Europe will not become strategically independent, it will not happen.
The rump galicia can be allowed to exist only as a demilitarized buffer state between Russian Federation and nato. It cannot be allowed to become a huge EOL army base ala kosovo.
Next on the agenda should be the objective to remove the EOL radars and missiles on the lands of romania and poland.
As for the baltic statelets, it would be nice for RF to have some coastal property on the baltic sea if the circumstances allow it. Though it will be expensive to keep them as they have zero revenue generation potential, security wise it will be an improvement.
“unachievable while the Neocons run the US”
I think “neocons” is an misnomer, a misuse of the language, the people referred to are NOT conservative; many of the the “neocons” dominate in DC come from the most “liberal” districts; no, these people refereed to as neocons are more truly described as colonialists or, if needed for fashion, neocolonialist/neocolonialism.
Nor, for that matter, is there anything “new”, they wholeheartedly subscribe to colonialism, almost identical to the British model, where venality is overlayed with a veneer of cultural superiority.
Is Poland putting in its bid for Ukrainian land?
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Poland-Demands-Ukraine-Recognize-Genocide-Committed-in-WWII-20220816-0015.html
“The Ukraine has been such a waste of money, billions and billions, that it is essentially a black hole with an event horizon which lets nothing come back out and beyond which anything, money, equipment or men, simply disappear. That is clearly an unsustainable drain on the economies of the West.”
A waste for the general populace? Yes. But via money and black arms laundering, I believe Ukraine has been very profitable for the West’s elite. But now the cost benefit ratio of extracting any more profits out of that area is probably no longer favorable to them.
I think that we are still far away from solutionning the Kiev’s regime issue. The war is even taking a dangerous turning point. UK and US understanding that Kiev wont be able to save the Dombass from falling into russian hands, have decided to destroy the whole Ukraine country and its surrounding by creating a major nuclear accident in the Zaporozhie nuclear plant. Destroying the nova karkhova dam regulating the reservoir above necessary to cool the 4 reactors above and bombing the pool of reactors fuel is ecpected to generate a problem that will dwarfed the Tchernobyl’s one. In addition they decided to multiply terrorist actions in Crimea, Dombass and in the Russia federation near Kursk.
I have no idea of what Russia is going to do about that but the whole thing smells and Europe is heading for a very bad fall and winter
“Not to mention that even if that rump Banderastan could become some kind of threat, it would be much easier to deal with it than the threat Russia faced in early 2022.”
– like a Nazi Gaza of sorts. Russia controls what goes in and out, not because of some tribal oriented racism or anything but to make sure that the Nazi’s doesn’t become a threat ever again, and help them to achieve what ukranians really voted for all along: better relations with Russia.
“Objectively, the European countries would get the best possible “out” for them, as being in a constant state of total war by proxy is absolutely unsustainable for countries of Europe:.”
– that train has by now left the station. Europe is going into a depression, as will the US eventually. but at least they have millions and millions of their beloved clans of rapefugees to share what little they have left, which will unleash chaos and which will overturn the globalist Eurocrat regime as well as every individual state within the union.
Elections in Lugansk, Donesk, Kharkov, Zaparizha and Kherson set for September 11.
It appears that Moscva and Saki events were caused by sabatage, inside job, Russian speaking Ukrainians. Numerous other terrorist acts in Crimea and north of Sumi appear to be acts of Risis controlled by SBU and MI6.
This story is full of fabrications.
1. Russia has never defeated the combined powers of the west.
2. NATO didn’t even try to stop russia, ukraine is a money laundering operation for the Uniparty.
3. The neocons are done in America. MAGA is ascendant and doesn’t consider russia an enemy.
4. Russia will never defeat America. The world will burn in nuclear fire first.
5. America has no desire to strike russia or china. Anyone who thinks so has zero understanding of America.
6. The CCP will be destroyed internally. America just has to sit back and wait.
7. Texas has a bigger economy than Russia and cannot even come close the USA as a whole.
8. You all have zero understanding of America. You underestimate us at your peril.
MAGA has no quarrel with russia. The criminals who stole our government will be dealt with and realpolitik will become the norm again. If russia strikes NATO, the world will burn in nuclear fire. FAFO.
Hi there!
I just need You to understand, that Russia is NOT the enemy of the US…but
We are being played. Do not dance to their tunes.
I hope You are right about the US getting it`s shit together internally. We ALL hope. ALL of us.
Godspeed. Love ya MAGA bro.
No one is going to be dealt with. The government of the United States and the American people have lost the will, the intelligence, the capacity, the character to deal with themselves.
Right now, the GDP of Texas is greater than the entire United States. The true wealth of a nation, the real GDP is determined by its debt. Each dollar of debt needs to be deducted from each dollar of GDP. The true GDP of the United States, after it paid off all its debt, and sold every asset the United States (which includes the assets of each and every Amercian), still comes to a negative $66-trillion dollars.
The United States is toast. There is no coming back. Every country that holds US Treasuries is going to sell this debt and then it’s game over.
The game has been over since the Crash of 2008-09. The value of the USD has already fallen by 98-percent from 1913 until 2008. The Crash wiped out the last remaining value of the USD. The value of the USD has been zero since 2010. The country has been living on habit and dependency since then.
CCP? Man are you living in the past. The Soviet Union ceased to exist in 1991. All you are showing is your Ugly American bias — that Russia and the Russian people are sub-humans. Good luck with that.
The Democratic Party is an organized crime family. It could use a good nuke or two upside the head.
It didn’t have to be this way.