Interesting info today. First, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has, through the statement of a Colonel General, made the following statement (translated by my friend Andrei Martyanov on his blog): (emphasis added)
Translation: MOSCOW, August 16 – RIA Novosti. Western curators have practically written off the Kyiv regime and are already planning the partition of Ukraine, Foreign Intelligence Service spokesman Colonel-General Volodymyr Matveev said at the Moscow Conference on International Security. “Obviously, the West is not concerned about the fate of the Kyiv regime. As can be seen from the information received by the SVR, Western curators have almost written it off and are in full swing developing plans for the division and occupation of at least part of the Ukrainian lands,” he said. However, according to the general, much more is at stake than Ukraine: for Washington and its allies, it is about the fate of the colonial system of world domination.
Just to clarify, the SVR rarely makes public statements and when they do, you can take them to the bank as the SVR is not in the business of “leaks” from “informed sources” and all the rest of the PR nonsense produced by the so-called Western “intelligence” agencies (which have now been fully converted to highly politicized propaganda outlets).
The same day I see this article on the RT website: “Western countries waiting for ‘fall of Ukraine’ – Kiev” in which an interesting statement the Ukronazi Foreign Minister is mentioned:
Several countries in the West are waiting for Kiev to surrender and think their problems will immediately solve themselves, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba in an interview published on Tuesday. “I often get asked in interviews and while speaking to other foreign ministers: how long will you last? That’s instead of asking what else could be done to help us defeat Putin in the shortest time possible,” Kuleba said, noting that such questions suggest that everyone “is waiting for us to fall and for their problems to disappear on their own.”
Finally, a while ago, Dmitri Medvedev posted this “future map of the Ukraine after the war” on his Telegram account. This maps shows a Ukraine partitioned between her neighbors and a tiny rump Ukraine left in the center.
Now, full disclosure, I have been a proponent of the breakup of the Ukraine into several successor states for a long while now: I gave my reasons for this in my article “The case for the breakup of the Ukraine” written in faraway 2016.
Now, six years later, what are the chances of this happening?
Without making predictions, which is close to impossible right now as there are way too many variables which can dramatically influence the outcome, I want to list a few arguments for and against the likelihood (as opposed to desirability) of such an outcome.
Arguments for the likelihood of this outcome:
- First, most of the neighbors of the Ukraine would benefit from such an outcome. Poland would not get the “intermarium” it always dreams about, but it would get back lands which historically belong to Poland and are populated by many Poles. In this map, Romania would also get a good deal, albeit Moldavia would lose Transnistria, which it had no real chance to ever truly control anyway. Romania might, therefore, even absorb all of Moldavia. True, on this map, Hungary gets (almost) nothing, but that is an issue which Hungary must tackle with Poland and Romania, not Russia.
- Russia might not even oppose such a development, simply because it makes the Ukronazi problem somebody else’s issue. As long as what is the current Ukraine is fully demilitarized and denazified, Russia will be fine with such an outcome.
- The rump ex-Banderastan would be so much reduced in size, population and resources that it would present little to no threat to anybody. Crucially, the Russians will never allow it to have anything more than a minimal police and internal security force (for at least as long as there remains even *traces* of the Ukronazi Banderista ideology anywhere near Russia). The actual chances of this rump Banderastan to become a threat to anybody would be close to zero. Not to mention that even if that rump Banderastan could become some kind of threat, it would be much easier to deal with it than the threat Russia faced in early 2022.
- Objectively, the European countries would get the best possible “out” for them, as being in a constant state of total war by proxy is absolutely unsustainable for countries of Europe.
- As for “Biden”, assuming he is still alive and in power (?), it would make it possible for “him” to remove the topic of this latest war lost (again!) by the USA from the headlines and deal with other issues.
- The Ukraine has been such a waste of money, billions and billions, that it is essentially a black hole with an event horizon which lets nothing come back out and beyond which anything, money, equipment or men, simply disappear. That is clearly an unsustainable drain on the economies of the West.
- Yet, in theory, if a deal is made and all parties agree, then the EU could remove maybe not all, but at least the worst, self-damaging, sanctions it so stupidly implemented and which are now destroying the EU’s economy.
- For the USA the biggest benefit from such an outcome could be, in theory, that it would “close” the “Russian front” and allow the US to focus its hatred and aggression against China.
There are, however, also many arguments against such an outcome.
- First, the Western ruling classes, drunk on total russophobia, would have to accept that Russia won this war (again) and defeated the combined powers of the West (again). This would mean an immense loss of face and political credibility for all those involved in the political war against Russia.
- Second, for NATO this would be a disaster. Remember that NATO’s real goal is to “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down“. In this case, how would an even expanded NATO accept that it could do absolutely nothing to stop the Russians from achieving all their goals?
- Next, while the people of the EU are suffering from the devastating economic policies of their rulers, the ruling elites (the EU 1%) are doing just fine, thank you, and don’t give a damn about the people they rule over.
- Such an outcome would also directly challenge the US desire for a unipolar world, run by Uncle Shmuel as the World Hegemon. The risk here is a political domino effect in which more and more countries would struggle to achieve true sovereignty, which would be a direct threat to the US economic model.
- Such an outcome is almost certain to be unachievable while the Neocons run the USA. And since there are NO signs of the weakening of the Neocons’ iron grip on all the levers of political powers in the USA, such an outcome could only happen if the Neocon crazies are sent back to the basement they crawled out from and where they belong. Not likely in the foreseeable future.
- This focus on the partition of the Ukraine overlooks the fact that the Ukraine is not the real enemy of Russia. In fact, the Ukraine lost the war to Russia in the first 7-10 days after the beginning of the SMO. Ever since, it is not the Ukraine per se which Russia has been fighting, but the consolidated West. If the real enemy is the consolidated West, the it could be argued that *any* outcome limited to the Ukraine would not fix or solve anything. At best, it might be an intermediate stage of a much larger and longer war in which Russia will have to demilitarize and denazify not just Banderastan but, at the very least, all of the EU/NATO countries.
- While for some the Ukrainian war has been an economic disaster, it has been a fantastic windfall for the (terminally corrupt) US MIC. And I won’t even go into the obvious corruption ties the Biden family has in Kiev. If this “Medvedev solution” is ever realized, then all that easy money would disappear.
- Furthermore, while amongst the argument for such an outcome I listed the ability of the USA to “close the Russian front” and focus on China, in reality such an arguments makes a very far-fetched assumption: that it is still possible to separate Russia and China and that Russia would allow the US to strike at China. Simply put, Russia cannot allow China to be defeated any more than China can allow for a Russian defeat. Thus the entire notion of “closing the Russian front” is illusory, in reality things have gone way too far for that and neither Russia nor China will allow the US to take them down one by one.
- The EU is run by a comprador ruling class which is totally subservient to the interests of the US Neocons. There are, already, many internal tensions inside the EU and such an outcome would be a disaster for those all those EU politicians who painted themselves into the corner of a total war against Russia, and even if, say, the Poles, Romanians or even Hungarians get some benefit from such an outcome, it would be unacceptable to the thugs currently running Germany, the UK or even France.
The arguments for and against such an outcome I listed above are just some examples, in reality there are many more arguments on both sides of this issue. Besides, what made sense 6 years ago might not make sense today.
For example, this discussion focuses on the “what” but not on the “how”. Let me explain.
I think that I was the first person in the West who noticed and translated a key Russian expression: “non agreement capable” (недоговороспособны). This expression has been increasingly used by many Russian decision-makers, politicians, political commentators and others. Eventually, even the folks in the West picked up on this. So let’s revisit this issue again, keeping in mind that the Russians are now fully convinced that the West is simply “non agreement capable”. I would argue that up until the Russian ultimatum to the USA and NATO, the Russians still left open the door to some kind of negotiations. However, and as I predicted BEFORE the Russian ultimatum, Russia made the only possible conclusion from the West’s stance: if our “partners” (sarcasm) are not agreement capable, then the time has come for Russian unilateralism.
True, ever since 2013, or even 2008, there were already signs that Russian decision making is gradually moving towards unilateralism. But the Russian ultimatum and SMO are now the “pure” signs of the adoption by Russia of unilateralism, at least towards the consolidated West.
If that is correct, then I would suggest that most arguments above, on both sides of the issue, have basically become obsolete and irrelevant.
Furthermore, I would like to add a small reminder here: most of the combat operations in the Ukraine are not even conducted by Russian forces, but by LDNR forces supported by Russian C4ISR and firepower. But in terms of her real military potential, Russia has used less than 10% of her military and Putin was quite candid about this when he said “we have not even begun to act seriously“.
What do you think this war will look like if Russia decides to really unleash her full military power, that is the 90% of forces which are currently not participating in the SMO?
Here is a simple truth which most folks in the West cannot even imagine: Russia does not fear NATO at all.
If anything, the Russians have already understood that they have the means to impose whatever outcome they chose to unilaterally impose on their enemies. The notion of a US/NATO attack on Russia is simply laughable. Yes, the USA has a very powerful submarine force which can fire lots of Tomahawk and Harpoon missiles at Russian targets. And yes, the US has a still robust nuclear triad. But neither of these will help the USA win a land war against the Russian armed forces.
And no, sending a few thousands US soldiers to this or that NATO country to “reinforce NATO’s eastern flank” is pure PR, militarily, it is not even irrelevant, it’s laughable. I won’t even comment on the sending of F-35s which is so utterly ridiculous and useless against the Russian Aerospace Forces and air defenses that I won’t even bother arguing with those who don’t understand how bad both the F-35s (and even the F-22s!) really are.
I won’t dignify the EU’s military capabilities with any comment other than this: countries who now seriously advocate taking less frequent showers to “show Putin!” have sunk to such a level of irrelevance and degeneracy that they cannot be taken seriously, most definitely not in Russia.
So where do we go from here?
As I said, I don’t know, there are too many variables. But a few things seem clear to me:
- Russia has decided to do full unilateralism in her policies towards the Ukraine and the West. Oh sure, if and when needed, Russians will still agree to talk to their Western “partners”, but that is due to the long standing Russian policy of always talking to everybody and anybody, even Russia’s worst enemies. Why? Because neither warfare nor political unilateralism are an end by themselves, they are only means to achieve a specific political goal. Thus, it is always good to sit down with your enemy, especially if you have been gently but steadily increasing the pain dial on them for a few months! The Europeans being the “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies” (to quote BoJo) they might cave in quickly and suddenly or, at the very least, they will try to improve their lot by trying to bypass their own sanctions (Uncle Shmuel permitting, however reluctantly).
- The only party with any real agency left with which Russia could seriously negotiate is the USA, of course. However, as long as the USA is under the total control of the Neocons, this is a futile exercise.
- Should there ever be any kind of deal made, it would only be one which would be fully and totally verifiable. Contrary to popular beliefs, a great many treaties and agreements can be crafted to be fully verifiable, that is not a technical problem by itself. However, with the current ruling classes of the West, no such deal is likely to be hammered out and agreed by all parties involved.
So what is left?
There is a Russian saying which my grandmother taught me as a kid: “the borders of Russia are found at the end of a Cossack’s spear“. This saying, born from 1000 years of existential warfare with no natural borders simply expresses a basic reality: the Russian armed forces are the ones who decide where Russia ends. Or you can flip it this way: “the only natural border of Russia are the capabilities of the Russian armed forces”. You can think of it as pre-1917 Russian unilateralism :-)
Still, this begs the question of the moral and ethical foundation for such a stance. After all, does it not suggest that Russia gives herself the right to invade any country it can just because she can?
Not at all!
While there were imperialist and expansionist wars in Russian history, compared to the West’s 1000 years of wall to wall imperialism, Russia is but a meek and gentle lamb! Not that this excuses anything, it is simply a fact. The rest of the Russian wars were, almost all, existential wars, for the survival and freedom of the Russian nation. I cannot think of a more “just war” than one which 1) was imposed upon you and 2) one in which your sole goal is to survive as a free and sovereign nation, especially a multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation as the Russian one has always been, in sharp contrast to the enemies of Russia which were always driven by religious, nationalist and even overtly racist fervor (which is what we can all observe again today, long after the end of WWII).
Is this just propaganda? If you think so, then you can study Russian history or, better, study the current military doctrine of Russia and you will see that Russia’s force planning is entirely defensive, especially at the strategic level. The best proof of that is that Russia put up with all the ugly racist and russophobic policies of the Ukraine or the three Baltic statelets for decades without taking any action. But when the Ukraine became a de facto NATO proxy and directly threatened not only the Donbass, but Russia herself (does anybody still remember that days before the SMO, “Ze” declared that the Ukraine should get nuclear weapons?!), then Russia took action. You have to be either blind or fantastically dishonest not to admit that self-evident fact.
[Sidebar: by the way, the three Baltic statelets, for which Russia has no use at all, are constantly trying to become a military threat to Russia, not only by hosting NATO forces, but also by truly idiotic plans to “lock” the Baltic with Finland. Combine this with the Nazi anti-Russian Apartheid policies towards the Russian minorities and you would be forgiven for thinking that the Balts really want to be the next ones to be denazified and demilitarized. But… but… – you will say – “since they are members of NATO, they cannot be attacked!”. Well, if you believe that 1) anybody in NATO will fight Russia over these statelets or 2) that NATO has the military means to protect them, then I have got plenty of great bridges to sell you. Still, the most effective way to deal with the Balts is to let them commit economic suicide, which they basically have already done, and then promise them a few “economic carrots” for a change to a more civilized attitude. A Russian saying says that “the refrigerator wins against the TV” (победа холодильника над телевизором) which means that when your refrigerator is empty, the propaganda on TV loses its power. I think that the future of the 3 Baltic statelets will be defined by that aphorism]
So will the Ukraine be partitioned?
Yes, absolutely, it has already lost huge parts of its territory and it will only lose more.
Might the Western neighbors decide to take a bite out off the western Ukraine? Sure! That is a real possibility.
But these will all be either unilateral actions or very unofficially coordinated understandings wrapped in plausible deniability (like the deployment of Polish “peacekeepers” to “protect” the western Ukraine). But mostly I predict two things will happen: 1) Russia will achieve all of her goals unilaterally without making any deals with anybody and 2) Russia will only allow the Ukraine’s Western neighbors to bite off some chunks of the Ukraine if, and only if, those chunks to not represent any military threat to Russia.
Remember what Putin said about Finland and Sweden joining NATO? He said that by itself, this is not a problem for Russia. But he warned that should these countries host US/NATO forces and weapons systems threatening Russia, then Russia will have to take counter-measures. I think that this is also the Kremlin’s position about the future of any rump-Banderastan and any moves by NATO countries (including Poland, Romania and Hungary) to reacquire territories which historically belonged to them or which have substantial Polish, Romanian and Hungarian minorities.
Right now, we are only in the second phase of the SMO (which centers of the Donbass) and Russia has not even initiated any operations to move deeper into the Ukraine. As for the real war, the war between Russia and the combined West, it has been going on for no less than decade, or even more, and this war will last much longer than the SMO in the Ukraine. Finally, the outcome of this war will see tectonic and profound changes at least as dramatic as the changes resulting from the outcomes of WWI and WWII.
The Russians understand that what they now really must do is to truly finish WWII and that the formal end of WWII in 1945 only marked the transition to a different type of warfare still imposed by a united, consolidated West, but now not by German Nazis but by (mostly) US Neocons (which, of course, are typical racist Nazis, except their racism is Anglo and Judaic/Zionist).
I will conclude with a short quote by Bertold Brecht which, I think, is deeply understood by Russia today:
“Therefore learn how to see and not to gape.
To act instead of talking all day long.
The world was almost won by such an ape!
The nations put him where his kind belong.
But don’t rejoice too soon at your escape –
The womb he crawled from is still going strong.”
― Bertolt Brecht, The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui
Russia slaughtered a lot of Western apes in her history, now is the time to finally deal with the womb from which they crawled out from.
Andrei
PS: FYI – the Russian investigation has declared that the explosions in the airfield in Crimea was an act of sabotage/diversion. Which was the most likely explanation to begin with.
How are these scenarios good for Russia? They move (NATO) Polish borders even closer to Russia? Best to keep W. Ukraine as a big buffer from NATO, no?
When Kiev becomes the capital of the new rump Ukraine, the citizens of Kiev need to rename Maidan Square “Biden Square” in honor of Sleepy Joe; and the hookers of Kiev need to name some alley in the red light district “Nudelman Alley,” in honor of Victoria Nuland[Nudelman], the neocon psychopath who has been so indispensable for the destruction of countless innocent lives in Ukraine and in other countries unfortunate enough to have had her fix her psycho gaze upon.
Speaking of partition, it’s not just Ukraine. Here is another sign that the American Evil Empire itself is imploding.
The recent Trump raid is reflective of a deeper crisis of the American regime and ruling class in general.
This is something neither the Red State Trumptards or Blue State Bidenbots want to admit, as it would expose the big lie of American “democracy and freedom” itself.
Trump, state secrets and the crisis of the American state
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/08/16/pers-a16.html
Can you say American Civil War 2.0?
Will the Ukraine be partitioned? After what the United States, the British Empire (that refuses to die gracefully), the EU, Europe and NATO have pulled? Not a chance. As soon as the Ukrainian army is wiped out, the Russians will sweep westward, unopposed, probably showing up at the Polish border just as the first snowflakes of a Russian winter fall.
After that? World War 3 has already started.
Sanctions were an act of war. The confiscation of Russian bank deposits was an act of war. The confiscation of private property was an act of war. The harassment of Russian citizens was an act of war. The blockade if Kaliningrad was an act of war. The proxy war was an act of war. The United States picking up where Germany left off after 1945, treating Russia and the Russian people as sub-humans; man, was that ever an act of war. There are some things you don’t walk back.
This thing is only just getting started. Ukraine is being terraformed for an invasion of Russia over the rotting bones of dead Ukrainian soldiers and Nazis. The west must have the vast resources Russia has in “shameful abundance — natural gas, oil, coal, minerals and rare earths. Resources the west has just about exhausted on their side. Trade and trade agreements won’t meet the west’s insatiable needs.
Will Ukraine be partitioned? If it was just Russia, maybe. But Russia is being backed by China. And both of these countries have friends. The Ukraine is toast.
I think when Medvedev posted that map he meant it in part as just trolling. While the areas he said might go to Poland mostly are what they lost during WWII (except for Zhytomyr Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast) . Since there are very few Poles there. The only real way they could get away with annexing those areas would be a “Union of Poland and West Ukraine”. Which might be possible if the West Ukrainians thought that would keep them away from Russia.And in the EU? But having Vinnytsia Oblast go to Romania is just crazy. I doubt there are even a handful of Romanians there. And it was even part of the USSR before WWII. If anything it, Zhytomyr Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast,and Kiev would be a better fit as either a rump Ukraine, or to join Russia. Part of Chernivtsi Oblast actually used to be in Romania before WWII,and still have a large minority of Romanians. I could see maybe part of that Oblast going to Romania. And the south of Zakarpattia Oblast has a large group of Hungarians. So they might want to reunite with Hungary again.
But all in all I’m reminded of an article I saw in 2014. Where a German NATO official did a study on the breakup of Ukraine back around the “Orange Revolution” times. His study gamed out what would happen if a civil war and breakup happened in Ukraine and how NATO should/would respond. His study concluded that if Russia intervened on the side of the separatists they would assuredly win the war. And Ukraine would be broken up. He also concluded no NATO intervention should happen,and would be ineffective anyway. He said that NATO might do what they are doing now. But the end result would be a Russian/separatist victory and Ukraine’s breakup. I think NATO understands how this will end.But wants to keep it going as long as possible in the hope of weakening Russia. A stupid idea,but we are talking about NATO remember.
Yet as the years roll on, its anyone except Russia, that is being weakened here.
I know it wont end well, but I don’t know how it will end.
What an absolutely brilliant article. America like Britain is a social mess and doomed to self emplode. They can’t defeat Russia or China in any conventional war.
A nuclear war will destroy all of them and their allies. The winter is coming soon and disaster setting in. Russia will be celebrated all over the world and Zionist, imperialist colonialists will go into the dustbin of history.
China is much closer with Russia than people know!
‘when your refrigerator is empty, the propaganda on TV loses its power.’
Awesome article! All these obscure absurd plans to green up the western world and not a word about how ending the SMO, clearly up to the west who caused it, would so obviously end huge outputs of gray energy, not to mention grief.
So yeah no huge massing of troops or swift flooding of Russian troops into the next territories. To look at the SMO as some ultra-aggressive act is absurd. The contracts signed and infrastructure in place for Nordstream 2 clearly show Russia’s true historical intent. Win/win
Operation Paperclip must have been quite the treat, for those who Nazis dodged the hangman. Seems they must have been very grateful and reassured by their new superiors in the pristine US, as compared to their destroyed homeland. Big budgets, no ranting Adolph or bombs suddenly blowing up your prototype. To think the Nazis had no allies in the West before 1938 is just naïveté on steroids.
Indeed, very strong case for ending WW. One giant war for humanity, one small battle at a time.
“Will the Ukraine be partitioned next and, if so, how?”
No one could possibly predict what will happen. Even the best experts who have thoroughly studied world history and the current nations with the greatest Financial strengths would have to hazard a guess.
Example: the US Financial Hegemony is in trouble. Years of massive thievery, arm-twisting and The FED doling out trillions of $$s to the financial elites, are in a fight to survive as Eurasia/Others continue to form a strong financial and trade framework.
If the US/UK/EU Financial Framework defeats the Eurasian Economic Model, then, Ukraine will be governed solely by the US…….If the US Financial Hegemony falls, then we would have to see how Ukraine develops beyond that point.
They key point here, is not what the Russian, or EU, or US military will do. It’s the huge financial stakes that are up for grabs.
It would be immensely helpful if the abject and unconditional surrender of Ukraine could take place a week or two prior to the US elections in November…
I know I am totally off topic but I dont know where to ask this : is there something happening with the Dmitry Orlov’s blog ? I live in Canada and I am not able to view new content on Boosty anymore although I’m a subscriber. Knowing that he is published here sometimes I would like to know if I’m alone in this situation.
Merci.
Search Orlov’s articles by title. Some appear on other sites (like this one) from time to time. Otherwise, your only other choice seems to be pay-per-view options. Orlov used to publish collections of his articles.
Orlov may be stepping away from writing about collapse before the narrative catches up with him. You can only say so much about a subject before you start repeating yourself. Nowhere was this more apparent than in Orlov’s books. His first, “Re-Inventing Collapse,” was pure Orlov. I bought that book as a present for many friends. The second less so. I bought that book only once, for myself.
SORRY – I don’t know whether my two last comments were sent already or not,
so I just posted the one I thought I had sent an hour or so ago already,
and
the long one I just tried to send, and which then disappeared as if sent, but perhaps was not,
therefore I try again:
Janek,
I think you are too optimistic: ‘WAW decides if Wash allows” means it is all PL initiatives, but some are torpedoed by the yenx… how lovely.. but isn’t it, of course, the other way round? America commands and their European slaves obey, whether in PL or in redgreen Germland or in Maqueron’s France (not to speak of unspeakable England)? Then America/their nazi–bred Special Services (SS)/ launches its other arm – “public” and “free, diverse” opinion making – at this moment here. And what completely free and completely diverse opinions do they make? “Aw these Poles again! Whatever one of their US$ paid politicians and politpreachers says is a truthful representation of the true, eternal, unchangeable bloodlust, brainlessness and bad-raced idiocy of a bunch of uncorrectable lunatics who, therefore, after loosing 643 men of their silly 2000 men army, are ripe for being wiped off the earth forever again… Hyle!”
Some years ago I was fond of travelling to PL often, which was cheap and easy from Berlin with trains that went from here to there (and back again) without fuss. Then everything began to be improved, and these 80 km became a patched obstacle ride with Ersatztrains, Ersatzbuses, Ersatzdestinations etc, so that it became much more fun to stay at home and read the internet 12+ hours a day. But even in the good old days decay already set in. For instance in Slubice’s Green Market (for Poles, not the Chinese clothes dump aka German market) they did not only sell vegetables, fruits etc. but had also nice restaurants and repair shops, all in makeshift achitecture, with first class products and services, and always cheap. Then the lady who had repaired so much of my garderobe needed “more time” twice for another banal repair, so that for the needed excess four train tickets I could have bought a new jacket or whatever it was. I got the message, stopped supporting the Polish green market there, and now it is completely germanized. One thing I observed often in different countries is that certain police cars some day turn up near me again and again, so they make clear they follow you (actually me), without any understandable reason or goal, just to harrass you (me). This phenomenon started in the Reichshauptstadt, but then also infested other slave countries who are friends of our revived nazi police, and the most loyal subjects of the Germ Nazi Reich in Poland, their police, also applied this procedure to me (“aw these terrible Poles!”). One evening, on the longish way to a small and nice hotel at Slubice’s outskirts I experimented with them, hid in the corn field there when they were due and waited for them. Yes, they were punctual, but perplexed that I was no more where I should have been at this moment; they even invaded a field on the other side of the road, but gave up when I simply was not there. Similarly, one evening or beginning night when I looked for a good (open and cheap) hotel in Poznan, a Police transporter criss-crossed my way again and again, urging upon me the thought, what malady had struck them for behaving thus shittingly. I guessed it was again the influence of bad germs. Much later, recently, I found the deep cause for such a stupid behaviour in such an intelligent nation: unbeknownst to all of us, the USA have already made Poland one of their subjugated enemy countries, and they have stationed armed forces there, one part of them indeed near the DE/PL contact zone near Slubice. And their headquarter is – Poznan. Thus, Poznan’s bad manners are the warning signal for the beginning of the downward spiral that is typical for american cities. I should have understood this already years ago, when I saw arch-catholic PL under PiS rule beeing inoculated with brazenly placed americanized Show-Brothels in “best places” like the central market in Poznan… or yet earlier, when I tried to understand, why “those people that always kill their adversaries by downing their planes” had killed the Polish elite in flight PL101 near Smolensk in 2010. Yes, the Kaczynskis had planned to make their country “great again”, by choosing “their own way”, and this was forbidden for Poland just as it was for Libya and was and is for any other country that the US can get under their thumb – including America itself. Brzezinski told the “Patriotic Poles”, who had visited him for getting a word of thunder against Putin, that they had no clue when they cheapreasoned: “It must have been Putin – who else does such things”.
bp
P.S. Nice to have a Polak here! Can you recommend any PL sites?
Its inevitable that Ukraine must be partitioned.
1 The RF will take as much territory as deemed necessary to ensure its security
2 Ukraine will unconditionally surrender
3 The comedian will be captured by his own military (hopefully) & handed over to be tried for Crimes Against Humanity &/or War Crimes
4 The RF will host a round-table offering Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Belarus, Poland (& possibly Moldova) their historical lands back – on the bases of ONE IN ALL IN. Partition can only succeed on this basis
5 NATO will be powerless to prevent this
6 Hence NATO’s relevance will be deeply re-examined even by the EU compador elites
7 Reconstruction of Ukraine by China (& possibly even N. Korea) will commence – and the most easterly nations of the former EU will be absorbed into the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and made reliable trading partners of SCO & the EaEU
8 Economic integration of Eurasia will continue apace – based not on Globalism (the domination of all 207 nations by a single nation, the US) but on Globalization trade for mutual benefit
9 Eventually (and prepare to be patient) the US (& its bases, forces) will be expelled from Eurasia, Africa & LatAm – which may take another 20 – 30 years
10 As an aside, we continue to discuss the US as a unified geopolitical unit. However, there is every indication that this is contentious as the US is ripe for civil war / revolution / civil disobedience. It is by no means certain that the US as a whole, will survive yet another catharsis.
The above is what has to happen for humanity to have an alternative long-term economic development model and for the vast majority of the world’s people to be lifted out of poverty & hunger (as China has already achieved for ~800million of her people over these last 40 years)
True, the challenges are huge – but the US’ ‘business-as-usual’ is just too terrible to contemplate.
Maybe we can all agree, that In Life, all things of lasting value require great effort.
Remember that NATO’s real goal is to “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down“.
This was British policy leading up to WWI, continuing through WWII and inherited by the USA after the collapse of British imperialism after WWI/WWII.
Why does not Russia approach Germany as a potential ally – even the Woke and Green Party crazies have to eat and stay warm.
It seems that Medvedev’s image was just a joke. It was to show what Ukraine is historically.
Vinnitsa is in no way can go to Romania. The Romanians live around south of Chernovtsy and in the east of Zakarpatie and they are an absolute minority as well as Hungarians in the south west of Zakarpatie. All these minorites have EU passports in their hands and will run away if they hear Russians coming. As for Galicia and Volyn, there are hardly any Poles left. It is rather Lvov architecture which is left of Poland or rather Austro-Hungaria. I bet Poland is the only one to get nothing here. It’ll be a principle for Russia. Orban’s loyalty might indeed be rewarded.
At the moment, I think Russians will take only what is possible. The Minsk agreements III can happen anytime. The referendums in Kherson and Zaporozhie will show other regions of Ukraine that Russia is serious and it’s not going to abandon whatever they occupied and will occupy. Yes, it’s the only fear right now for Russian speaking Ukranians. No one wants to become another Donbass and wait 8 years for liberation. And this might change a lot. It is already obvious that after all hysteria in the occupied territories people slowly change their minds. They great Kiev less. All they needed is time. Most didn’t care anyway. All they want is peace no matter where.
As for the rest, in Russian mindset the priority goes for Odessa, Nikolaev, rest of Zaporozhie and Kharkov. Then if possible Dnepropetrovsk without which Donbass metallurgy would suffer a lot. Sumy as a part of Slobodanschina (Kharkov) is of minor interest. Kirovograd which historically was Russian seems to be quite antirussian at the moment. Surely enough Kiev with it’s historic center of Podol and Kievo-Pechory monastery is of high value for Russians and indeed can become a center of rather neutral Ukraine of which unlike Medvedev’s map Cherkassy, Poltava, Kirovograd, Vinnitsa, Zhitomyr, Chernigov and Sumy would make a part. I’m basically saying here that if there are any changes within Ukraine, then the most rational solution is to divide the country into three parts. Because there are Russia hating part speaking Ukranian, central part with half soaking Ukranian and the rest mostly Russian speaking. If Russia decides to go further, then it’ll take all of Ukraine most likely with just little part of Zakarpatie going to Hungary as a reward. It seems quite possible that after Donbass taking the rest of the country will be a matter of a few months indeed. All the unloyal to Russia Galicians would happily immigrate to Europe anyway. So no problem for Russia at all.
Further to my previous comment: The head of Poland’s Central Bank, Adam Glapiński, warned that Germany is aiming “for the recovery .. of their former lands, which are now within Poland’s borders, and the subjugation of this entire belt of countries between Germany and Russia.”
So my point is after UKR’s unconditional surrender, if Poland is awarded Galicia & Hungary, Slovakia, Belarus & Romania regain their historical lands – Germany has a strong case to argue.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-central-bank-adam-glapinski-germany-design-poland-territory/
It’s time for Poland to claim her Western ancient lands by the river Łaba and Ren and Berlin ancient Polish Bralin.
And … seeing the writing on the wall?
Europe has significantly reduced military aid to Ukraine.
In July, the 6 largest EU countries, incl. Germany and France, made no new promises to Kiev at all. This is the first time since the beginning of the SMO that such a situation has arisen – Politico.
According to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the volume of military aid to Ukraine from European countries has been on a downward trend since April.
Last week in Copenhagen, the Western allies decided to give Kiev $1.5 billion. But, as the article says, this amount is “minor” compared to what was previously promised.
Actually I don’t think that NATO members such as Poland, Romania or Hungary will take Medvedev’s bait. It’s not in the interest of the Atlantic powers, so it won’t be done. These states have no free agency and basically obey what they are told.
Given the circumstances, I think that the best educated guess is that the Atlantic powers will continue to support a nominal Ukrainian national government ruling whatever territory is outside the reach of the Russians. This will be kept as base of war operations and guerilla activities in the name of an “independent” Ukraine. It will be financed and armed by the West forever, as long as it serves the purpose of bleeding Russia. Independent Ukraine will be kept for these operational and propaganda purposes even if it will be reduced to GaliCia. The “Ukrainian” government wil continue to exist in Lvov or even in exile in London.
To put it short: There will be no partitions, whatever will be left of Ukraine will be at war, the Russian held territory will be exposed to continous sabotage. The West will try to proplongue the conflict for years in order to create instability and discontent in Moscow.
“the Russian investigation has declared that the explosions in the airfield in Crimea was an act of SABOTAGE/diversion”
source PLZ? :)
TY
Very refreshing and encouraging to read comments that are intelligently reasoned and not simply vitriolic with an excuse to throw in meaningless profanity.
The travel time from the center of most cities to the outskirts, let alone remote locations by any means would be longer than the travel time of Russian hyper-sonic weapons to their targets.
There is no guarantee the “Global Elites” would make it safely to their bunkers unless they happened to already be situated near them.
If the “Global Elites” (a reference to Putin recent speech) were to maintain a defensive stance in an environment of genuine risk, especially one they have created, that would mean they would be bound to their bunkers just waiting, this does not fit the Neocon Profile.
They will pivot away from confronting Russia and China directly to an attack on Arabs and Persians in northern Syria.
Neoconservative ambitions were “7 countries in 5 years” and Lebanon, Syria, Iran remain unfinished business.
The Globalist’s will perhaps convince Nationalists that European energy needs and American interests are served by war, it may ultimately be predicated on a false flag but the result will be the same.
When ample desperation and anger has been “jinned up” in the people, their lives will be threatened and their heads turned to war.
Only non-NATO Countries need apply
It seems to who gets WHAT but the WHO that gets anything should be non-aligned with Russia or Nato. This would help assure Central Europe will be more oriented to self defense.
The Polish President as I recall, stated the nation of Central Europe should form a self defense alliance that he cared the Belt of Europe that would comprise nations from the Baltic to Mediterranean Seas. The purpose would be two separate the two belligerent of the region Russia and Western Europe (the traditional Nato).
Of course he was envisioning the establishment of a new commonwealth but good things could arise to all with an approach that makes Central Europe nonaligned.
Even if Russia takes the Donbass all the way to Transnistria and absorbs those regions through referendum, why is it I don’t see a scenario where the West doesn’t just keep pumping weapons into the “rump Ukraine” and funding Neo-Nazi terrorists (just like they fund ISIS in the ME/NA) in order to engage in a ‘forever terrorist war’ against Russia and the regions they annex? Why would this not happen? Even if the ‘rump Ukraine’ is declared a neutral state, the Banderites have communities worldwide (like in Canada). All I see is never-ending terrorist attacks aimed at Russians (world-wide) as well as those who wish to live in peaceful coexistence and develop trade relationships with Russia.