by Mark Sleboda
What the Kremlin’s inaction over the Ukraine means for Russia’s geopolitics, international relations, and the Eurasian Union:
All moral and national security issues aside for a moment, the precedent that Russia’s inaction is setting in the Ukraine in terms of both geopolitics and foreign policy alone is crippling. The surrender of Ukraine to the West by Russia inevitably means exactly that the US achieves its primary goal – the end of the Eurasian Union project and the Russian/Eurasian civilizational space.
Russia has now set the precedent that it does not have the right, ability, or political will to act or intervene in the post Soviet space when facing serious Western opposition. Further it has set the precedent that the US and EU DO have both the right and ability to act to the point of orchestrating regime change, civil war, and the complete domestic political reordering and geopolitical reorientation of a country in what was once considered Russia’s “near abroad” and that Russia lacks the ability and/or political will to counter or resist this in any way. It will grumble but just accept the new status quo to preserve “peace” and a conception of “business as usual”. That is to say, appeasement.
The lessons that the governments and peoples of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan will invariably take away from Russia’s inaction in the Ukraine are:
(1) that they can neither trust nor rely on Russia to support or defend them when the West comes for them, as it inevitably will, whether with unconventional warfare/color revolutions or with direct military action and
(2) the complete impunity with which the new Kiev regime is not only massacring people who are calling directly on Russia for succor but has also shelled Russian territory, borderposts, homes, and citizens no less than 9 times in 3 weeks tells the former Soviet space that they need neither respect nor fear us, as we have no respect or political will even to defend ourselves, whether out of fear of Western ostracism, economic dependability, or fear of using our own military force in earnest to defend our interests when faced with serious opposition by the West. Respect, loyalty, and fear are important and essential aspects of Russian and Eurasian socio-cultural values and conceptions of leadership and hierarchy throughout history. Without them, there is no leadership and the center cannot hold.
I was going though his out loud with my wife just earlier today, and when we arrived home she coincidentally stumbled across prominent Armenian political bloggers despairingly mocking and deriding the Kremlin’s paralysis in near those same terms, confirming my fears.
If Putin’s inaction in the face of what is happening in the Ukraine continue much longer it will not only mean the loss of Ukraine to the West, but in the long-term the suicide of Putin’s own plans for a re-consolidation of even the core of the post-Soviet space particularly in the form of the Eurasian Union, as well as the end of dreams of a wider Eurasian civilization or “Russian world”. The US will have achieved its primary goal in all of this, Russia’s geopolitical horizons will shrink further to its own borders (or not even that), and it will in truth fade and diminish itself to the role and form of just another “normal nation-state” as fifth columnists like Dmitri Trenin at Carnegie speak of so longingly. “The end of Eurasia” as he once put it, in truth…
Saker Message:
I’d like to see Mr. Sleboda offer some facts/evidence for his opinions. For instance, how does the fact that Bulgaria and Austria intend to follow through on their South Stream commitments in the face of EU opposition fit into Sleboda’s scenario?
And with a Unipolar world with those criminals in charge the 99% are also doomed. C’mon Putin!
I believe that Russia has made a grave error.
I believe this is a premature panic attack. Russia did not give up Ukraine to the West! The game is about to begin, not to end. The Donbas resistance will be turned into mobile units without any permanent location that can be bombed or attacked. This way it will be far more effective and flexible. I would wait at least till winter to draw any kind of conclusions. This is a long term war, with many outcomes.
The Kremlin has to think of the Big Picture. The US is waging war by all other means but direct attack on Russia (so far). The US by its actions is beginning to estrange is formerly unshakeably loyal satellites in Europe -especially France. The South stream Pipeline might make Ukraine’s pipelines irrelevant. Russian Nationalism is not the way for the people of the world to overthrow Imperialist tyranny. Only a politically independent working class can see to its own safety.
Within a few generations the Russians of Ukraine will be fully zombified. They will learn to hate Moskals, Bandera and Porky will be their heroes.
Ukraine can redraw the border with Russia, move troops into Russian towns and give the settlements proper Ukrainian names.
Today this sounds impossible but if Putin doesn’t act, it will happen.
Whereas, what might work internally in Ukraine, i.e., a long, drawn-out guerilla war, is preferable in terms of Ukraine . . . there might not be enough Russian domestic or Eurasian political time capital available to pursue that option.
Without a real commitment from Germany, Russia’s hand may be forced.
If that happens, we are likely to see a global escalation of military tension on an unprecedented scale.
However, a world with Russia as a slave state subject to western domination and attack is not one I’m willing to live in.
Since a state of virtual war already exists, why fuck around?
The Russian Army may have to establish a new concept of deterrence for the 21st century.
(American citizen)
Wrong. Russia will defend her allies
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization
Ukraine is not a member of CSTO, so this is other case.
The explanation to this whole sad situation is simpla: people have a tendency towards conflating the Russian and the Novorusskyi identities. While the later often uses the later as a disguise, it is always a travesty because the values sets of both these identities are not only different, but even sometimes totally opposite.
Strelkov/Girkin is Russian.
Putin is Novyi Ruskyi…
When Novyie Russkyie appeal to some kind of National Russian Idea, it is simply to advance their own interests.
No honor among thieves, even if some among them are “Vory v zakone”.
Pelevin was right about it:
VOVCHIK SCENE GENERATION P: http://youtu.be/aa5jIBrlxUw
Now it is becoming quite clear why Yeltsin picked Putin to replace him. They are exactly the same. They like Western’s shit more than Russian’s cake.
I will certainly enjoy the broadcasts from Putin’s trial in Hague.
Mark has wife’s relatives in the Ukraine, as I recall.
Why hasn’t he organized war veteran volunteers to go help? FaceTime on RT is not preserving lives.
If boots on the ground or planes flying bombing runs or missiles fired into Karachun Mt. are needed, first, there needs to be a reason large enough or Russia will be crucified.
Done right at the right time in the right way, Russia suffers no consequences or bearable ones.
Russian leadership has determined that its economic and geopolitical progress will not be stopped if it continues its economic trajectory with China while holding EU to the fire over the bloodshed they encourage. Ukraine is a bearable reality in this calculus.
Meanwhile, a destabilized Ukraine goes nowhere and is not a threat linked to NATO. It teeters on the brink, it can kill, but it is a zombie state.
Putin know everything and calculates everything. We all know only the deaths and suffering, and only part of that. There have been executions, assassinations, disappearances and torture we have yet to find out. Bodies buried in mass graves, thrown down mines and wells, disposed of in lakes. Donbass is a tragedy wrapped in hope and bloodshed.
It isn’t over in Ukraine until Putin says its over.He can’t rescue Novorossiya until it is the right time. If large scale massacres soon happen, he’ll take some limited action. In the end, at the end of the year or early next, Kiev will pay for their crimes.
The Russians in Russia have to demand that their sons be sent, that they risk a nuclear crisis, that they are ready for sector sanctions.
I see street protests in Greece and Italy. Where are the masses in Russia? All anyone protests in Russia is Putin not acting now!
Not many volunteers to go kill Ukies, no protests, just articles and videos moaning and groaning about VV Putin.
This is genocide and it requires mass uproar. Directed at the culprits, the UN, OSCE, NATO, US, EU and the contractors and Intel agencies in for the bloodsport over Russian bodies.
Save me any more prose.
Go to the border and shoot at the MF’ers.
Put up some money and support some professionals to go snipe the Ukies.
I am certain there are rogue characters inside Russia who, for price, would go to Kiev and take out one of those scum ordering the massacre.
Has anyone even thought about paying hackers to undermine the oligarch’s businesses. I know Privat Bank was hit, but there are plenty of targets.
There are a huge spectrum of targets to get at in Ukieland. What are 145 million Russians doing but waiting for Putin to do what he knows is the wrong thing at the wrong time.
I cannot believe the constant drum beat on his head.
He wanted time before Donbass got rolling. The people acted without his approval. They are 100% responsible for their own tragedy starting before it had to. What pretext would the Ukies have had to attack in scale and force if there was no rebellion?
They went for the bait Kiev threw from Maidan and the Rada. Putin understood it was a disastrous mistake to hold the referendums.
Then, to begin a rebellion with absolutely no real widespread support for war. And now, the bandwagon is rolling to bring down Putin?
Don’t expect a nation to go to war over this folly. Putin will neutralize Ukraine with many techniques, and Russia will stay on course in its big war against the Hegemon.
Some folks, in their grief, have become servants to the enemy. These blogs and commentaries are being used to undermine Russia.
Think. Think before you write. Think. Another idealistic rebellion, this aimed at the Kremlin. Half-cocked, cockeyed. Wrong and foolish.
@Larchmonter 00:24 July 06 ,2014
Ditto. Ditto. Ditto.
(You sure saved me a lot of typing and then some; adding new insights and far more eloquently/concisely than I would have.)
Mark Sleboda would be well served to read your comment.
I don’t blame Mark for being angry and frustrated; he probably has first hand knowledge through his wife about friends, relatives and acquaintances that have been murdered/violated by the hate-conditioned cretins of Galicia and other equally ‘refined’ parts of Ukraine (that’s a guess), but it seems for Prof. Sleboda it’s personal. Let’s see if by Q3-Q4 of this year he holds the same opinion: By that time many of Russia’s ‘ducks’ will be lined-up; then we’ll see how cocky some of those Neocon sycophants will be at that time. This isn’t over by a long shot.
With respect to a Superpower tolerating instability and even violence on its border, we all seem to be forgetting that Mexico is more violent than Iraq and the Mexican drug war is effectively a civil war that spills over into the US via direct killings of US border guards, direct killings of US civilians, and indirect killings thru Mexican street gangs throughout the US Southwest and large US urban centers. Now, I’m not equating the premeditated mass murder and destabilization perpetrated on Eastern/Southern Ukrainians to the “apparently” mindless violence of the Mexican Drug-Cartel civil war, I’m simply pointing out that a precedent does exist for even the US to downplay violence and civil war spillover on its border due to diplomatic and geopolitical reasons.
In Mark’s defense, if a year from now, the situation has deteriorated further and the expected Russian response does not materialize, then Mark’s conclusions about the consequences to Russia with it’s partners through out Asia (Iran, India, China, Central-Asian-CIS, the Koreas, etc.) will be valid. Russia’s credibility will be severely damaged; nobody respects weakness and nobody can trust a power that appears to have been compromised; i.e. a country with divided policy objectives and power-centers. However, please note: on the most serious geopolitical objective for the militant elements of Western foreign policy organs, Syria/ME, Russia has not backed down an inch. If Russia were so weak and feckless would it not make sense that Russia would have acquiesced on these fronts too? Yet Putin has not, on the contrary, he’s increased the pressure by very overtly undermining State-Dept. leverage by supplying Iraq with military hardware that the US seems to be delaying on purpose. Also Putin has successfully undermined State Dept. Hegemony over important EU states in key areas (France – Mistral contract, and Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary support for South-Stream). So if the Kremlin hasn’t rolled over in these areas, then the jury is still out regarding any Russian capitulation.
BTW Saker (Well done with landing an article by a serious policy expert like Mark Sleboda [more’s coming your way]).
Post is the operative word. Their choice, let them deal with it.
Russia has a vision for the first time in decades. Go east young person, that is where the future is.
Who gives a haha what post soviet space cadets think.
Putin told the cheese heads not to separate from the start. Did they listen? NO!
The last think Russia needs now is to be dragged back down the Cold War Rabbit Hole and thus revive the rotting IMF corpse that is currently gasping for its last breaths.
That is the only think that can save the IMF system.
Putin keep up the excellent efforts. everybody know you future is Eastward and bright and that your sovereignty assured.
And in other news, Sochi will host the International Grand Prix in Oct., 2014! Yay! NOT!!
All this attention to vain and wasteful preoccupations: Olympics, Grand Prix, World Cup. No wonder we have no time for the serious stuff, like keeping our brother Ukrainians on track. After 08/08/08, I just knew something bad was going to happen during the Sochi Olympics. Ah, vanity…
:-(
Russia needs some really serious old time religion to keep us all focused on the truly needful things, not on garbage.
gasp, russia better act before it loses the armenian blogosphere. Yes people from the Russosphere expect assertive action. Such expectations aren’t a strategic factor. The silovikrats know what they’re doing.
I believe both wailing wall street and the Kremlin know that the former’s halcyon days are numbered in double digits and that the Ukraine situation is a desperate move on their part reliant on a desperate russian reaction. Petrol, debt, dollar hegemony are all in trouble and from Ukraine to Iraq the arch-bourgeoisie are flailing at retaining relevance. When a toddler throws a tantrum, best to ignore it until it realizes it’s not the centre of the universe. Ukraine is far from lost.
To Dalpe: Russia doesn’t have the luxury of sitting back and “going east.” US will heavily arm & train Ukraine Nazis to attack Crimea. War is coming. Question is who wins.
Sorry, but I consider this article to be hysteria.
The facts are:
1) Crimea united with Russia.
2) Novorussian resistance is de facto the Russian answer.
3) We don’t yet know how everything will play out, hence we don’t know the full Russian reaction.
The lessons for members or candidates of Eurasian union is that they have to keep their house in order and that Russia at this point of development will not overtly go in militarily. The lesson for those criminals who attempt a coup is that Russia will grind them down as best as it can.
This is basically the tertium datur out of the lose-lose imposed by colour revolutions. Russia can’t possibly be expected to overtly go in militarily everytime there is a colour revolution. Russia has also shown that it will not “do nothing”. Instead Russia shows that it will exploit international law to the max, including covert military operations. This is the tertium datur out of ther lose-lose!
Also consider that Ukraine is not only the first such incident on such scale, but also that Ukraine is not yet a member of Eurasian union, in fact Ukraine wasn’t even sufficiently rooted in the Russian sphere of influence in the first place. Undoubtedly Russian involvement in Belarus or Kazakhstan would be far stronger, I am convinced that Russia would also fully back Lukashenko and Nazarbaev in case of colour revolutions. Also consider that Putin suggested the development of a strategy against colour revolutions. And lastly, the example of Ukraine will in itself already be the deterrent for everyone who might potentially face a colour revolution, not only for the politicians but also for the citizens of the respective countries.
I agree with the poster who said this is a premature panic attack.
It took them nearly 2 months and their entire military to take a city of 100,000. How will they take Luhansk and Donetsk? If they do go ahead and bomb those cities, there are millions of civilians in those cities.
Is that their strategy and are they really that insane to do that? The whole world will know and see it, I honestly don’t believe they will attempt that, but if they do judge Putin then.
The Ukrainians will move further into Donbass and further into the heart of the resistance, their supply lines will stretch and they’ll be facing a well organized guerrilla militia with the ability to shoot down jets and blow up tanks.
The whole world’s governments will be watching this closely, the esteem of Russia in the eyes of the world will be cemented positively if Russia and Putin show the world they are and can be a trusted rational partner.
I wish that something could be done to protect those civilians but the Russian way is going to save a lot more lives around the world and Russian lives in the long run if they act very slowly.
It took them 2 months to take Slavyansk, in two months it will be September. For one’s own sanity have some faith in the Russian Federation and its statesmen.
Regards,
Stepping Razor
I don’t agree with this article, and I do agree with those who have pointed out its many flaws of analysis. Further, to think that events in Ukraine can spell the end of the Eurasian Union (when it has acted as a major stimulus for it) is also not correct.
There is far too much hysteria in the air. I regret to read so much panic and despair. Partly this is testament to the wonderful disinformation put out by the Donbass Army as it withdraws from untenable positions and regroups to enlarge its war against Kiev.
But also, some people are waving their TROLL flags a little too triumphantly too – and rather prematurely.
Of all the posts here in the last 24 hours I rate the article by Dmitri Steshin as the most useful: Slavyansk is out of sight now… He at least speaks to the situation on the ground from the heart of the rebels – who are now a large army about to kick serious ass.
His article only received 7 comments, I don’t know why, when it offers more hope and clarity than anything else here currently.
Anyway that’s where I wrote my own long comment supporting Russia, Putin, Donbass, the current strategy both global and local, and the eventual triumph of justice. You can find it here if you want: fake broken wing
(i) When the US did not attack Syria even after the President declaring a “red line” did anyone think in these terms about the US? No, because it would be foolish. All the factors which make US powerful still exist! Indeed, as real experts (as opposed to demagogue-turned-experts) said, it does not even bode badly about US credibility, because the credibility does not depend on past words, but on current-power and current-perceptions of one’s adversary. Check an article link on the bottom on my post by Paul Pillar, one of the “real” experts.
(ii) the precedent that Russia’s inaction is setting in the Ukraine in terms of both geopolitics and foreign policy alone is crippling.
I thought just the opposite. The precedent Russia’s “inaction” is setting will strengthen International Law. Now when the Americans want to bomb the next group of people bugging them, everyone will compare them with the Russians, and the comparision will benefit Russia.
(iii) Russia has now set the precedent that it does not have the right, ability, or political will to act … Further it has set the precedent that the US and EU DO have both the right and ability to act to the point of orchestrating regime change, civil war, and the complete domestic political reordering and geopolitical reorientation of a country in what was once considered Russia’s “near abroad”
“Right”, “ability”, wtf. Apparently, anyone can write anything he wants, and Saker will publish it.
(iv) If Putin’s inaction in the face of what is happening in the Ukraine continue much longer it will not only mean the loss of Ukraine to the West …
I thought this issue was already settled? Crippling precedents have been set and so on? If the Kremlin does “nothing” I will bet my last dollar that Mr Sleboda would say the same thing 1 month from now, 2 months from now, 3 months from now, and 1 year from now, 2 years from now, 3 years from now, and so on. Every time the “inaction” will set things in stone, but he will not stop beseeching!
(v) fifth columnists like Dmitri Trenin at Carnegie
The “fifth columnist” Dmitri Trenin supported Crimea’s integration with Russia. His analysis is widely respected even among the foreign policy elite in Russia. (see ValdaiClub.com)
Pillar on “precedence”: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/the-forgotten-principles-deterrence-10148
Trenin on Crimea: http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=54988
Oh certainly. Who is going to take a risk for Putin now?
It may have been a trap. But some times honor requires that you enter a trap to defend the innocent.
Besides, if worse came to worse, Putin just presses the nuclear reset button.
There is a myth that Putin told the folks in Donbas to stand down. That is garbage. He set them up for failure. He could have extended this cease fire if he kept the pressure on, instead he backed down and the West took that as a signal to attack.
Putin cannot learn a simple lesson in 14 years, one that the Chinese demonstrate well. The psychopaths in the West only respect a viable threat. Nothing more. If there were good people like Eisenhower or Kennedy, sure, but those days are LONG gone. This is the New World Order. The Illuminati.
Putin would have to step down if there was anyone to replace him. He doesn’t let that any rivals see the light of day, though.
I like Putin and I love Russia but the revolution is more important. Whatever way it goes down, Novorussia is the revolutionary moment. Not about Ukraine, not even Russia. It’s more about America going down and that’s why I support Novorussia. I look forward to a long guerilla war that spills over into Europe, South America and North America.
For those of you without an operational background in modern military affairs, the Ukrainian Army could have taken the town more quickly. But why rush? They did it exactly right from a tactical standpoint. The “delay” was not a measure of the strength of the resistance by any means. It was only a measure of the West’s desire to pull Putin into a deeper conflict so that they could make him the new Hitler.
A militia cannot stand up to a second world army alone. Period. End of story. Viet Nam had help. Afghanistan and Iraq had help. Lebanon had help. No one can do it alone. Putin abandoned these people so that he could live to fight another day. Not exactly honorable.
The zionist trolls will do ANYTHING to make people think that Russia is wise to sit back. They’ll use several standard tactics.
1) tell people that the morally correct, war defeating action of a direct Russian intervention is ‘simplistic’ and therefore ‘anti intellectual’. This tactic has great success with simpletons, who think the thousands of words published daily in the zionist newspapers read by the ‘chattering classes’ represent something ‘significant’ simply because said person is foolish enough to read such garbage, and consider themselves ‘enlightened’ by doing so.
2) tell people that if Putin orders Russia into Ukraine, this makes Putin no different from Obama. Of course, the Americans have been NEVER welcome in any of their post WW2 invasions, whereas no one doubts the people of Novorussia will overwhelming see their Russian brothers as saviours.
3) Tell people if Putin goes in, Russia will be ruined by deadly sanctions from the West. In reality, by NOT going in, the West has the perfect excuse to escalate sanctions against Russia- each new wave being worse than the last. America used the same trick against Japan in the lead up to WW2 (although Japan’s evil actions are not in dispute) and uses the same tactic today against all target Muslim nations and political targets.
A clean Russian liberation would provide a momentary instance of backlash by the impotent West- but this backlash would NOT be supported by the people of the West, who would want relationships with Russia rapidly normalised, if they witnessed the end of violence in Ukraine.
4) Tell people Putin should only go in when East Ukraine faces a literal genocide. This one is a real favourite of the zionists. This one allowed Hitler himself to reach such an unthinkable level of power before anyone took the threat of the Nazis seriously. This one allowed the rulers of Belgium and France to arrange a genocide in Rwanda. When you wait to the ‘last moment’ you have the greatest incentive to never act, because the action needed at the ‘last moment’ is too horrible to contemplate, and you think it ‘too late’.
-consider these four excuse tactics promoted by the zionist trolls, and count how many times they are used in the comments
After reading all the opinions on this blog and some others, for me it’s clear that Russia’s time to intervene will be in the Winter, when the regime in Kiev is economically collapsed and all the people in the west and the east, revolt against the unbalanced austere, the robbery by the oligarchs and the atrocities that will be grown to unspeakable horror by the uncontrolled pariah-gangs of Nazis roaming all Ukraine and beyond from Poland to Greece.
Be Strong. Russia, as promised, will bring all the criminals to justice! and Europe will welcome that very much.
The question is : what should or could Russia do in a country with hundreds of thousands (if not millions) brainwashed and bloodthirsty Orcs and Uruk Hai, willing to fight to the death, without creating a much bigger mess than it already is ?
If there would be a clear-cut answer and solution, Russia would already have intervened.
The fact of the matter is : whatever Russia would do (invasion,no-fly zone,missiles or air attack,…), it would only incite Sauron’s disciples and fill them with more hatred and fighting spirit.
This is not tiny Georgia or Moldova, this is a 45-million people state of which a majority is historically and deeply russophobic, and their number is (due to propaganda) growing fastly.
Whatever the complications and consequences would be, Russia would be blamed (as usual) for everything by the all-powerful Western media syndicate. The chain of events (both short and long-term) following an intervention would be unpredictable, dangerous and possibly catastrophic for Ukraine and Russia.
By the way, Putin knew already months ago that Ukraine is lost, that’s why he took the most important part, Crimea. Otherwise he would never have made such a bold move.
As for Russia’s so-called allies in the post-soviet world, even Lukashenko of Belarus has already expressed sympathy or at least understanding for Kiev’s actions in Donbass.
I doubt very much these “allies” would back Putin if he would intervene in Ukraine.
Most have russian minorities and are somehow suspicious of Russia’s intentions with regard to these minorities.
Putin is a cold blooded calculator and not a gambler or Hitler-like maniac, that’s why he prefers to sit this one out.
People critical of the West who considered him to be an anti-western crusader are completely mistaken, even after all the dirty tricks they played on him, despite the smears and attacks, he still wants to be accepted by them.
I don’t think Russia should attack, even if the Russians in the Ukraine is all ethnically cleansed.
The western elite can filter the news only for a short time, before they lose credibility, and looking at the comments in Western Media, they are losing credibility fast.
The great prize for Russia, is a new Russian friendly European elite, that can secure Russia short term economic growth to a western level, and long time security on their western border.
There was the same foreboding doom and gloom and sense of betrayal after Russia didn’t veto the UNSC no fly zone in Libya. But China didn’t veto it, either, and they actually had a stronger interest in Libya than Russia.
Now it’s being claimed that Russia instigated the independence move of Novorossia and then betrayed it. Much of that I think is our own wishful thinking, as Russia never encouraged the rebellion, and actively discouraged it.
A few months ago, most seem to understand that Russia wasn’t behind the rebellion, and wasn’t planning on intervening on former Ukrainian territory. Many also understood that a split Ukraine probably wasn’t in Russia’s interests, either. A neutral, but whole Ukraine was what was though to be the Russian goal. People accepted the “long view” of the Ukraine being ultimately an failed state which will prove a liability to any side which adopted it as a colony. Etc…
We all realised these things, but many probably, in their hearts, held out the hope of the Russians running the Novorussian rebellion as part of a plan to bring the Ukraine back into Russia. That may be an eventual Russian goal, but it isn’t right now. Each time the Novorussians have a setback, people panic and the blame game renews. I think we are projecting our desires of what Russia should be onto what Russia actually is.
Look at what is happening in Finland. The leader there is calling for Finland to abandon its “neutral” status and join NATO. A Russian intervention in the Ukraine would bolster his quislingship to those ZPC/NWO goals immensely. Even a Ukraine not invaded by Russia, but one which could be portrayed as “forced by Russia” into being a satellite state would help the ZPC/NWO demonise Russia and unify its European colonies into a much stronger anti-Russian alliance than it is now. Look at the rest of eastern Europe, the ZPC/NWO are massively stoking the anti-Russian flames. An Ukraine intervention would make their day. That’s just a few of the issues surrounding Russian decision making.
Well Said.
The irony is that Mark is using exactly the same magical thinking that drives the neocons to do what they do. He thinks you can somehow go in as a good guy and therefore do only good – kill only “bad guys” that deserve death, rescue all the innocents, save the day.
He needs to realise this never happens. If Russia goes in to Ukraine they will not save lives, not in the short or the long term. War never saves lives. It just sacrifices them to competing interests.
And since we know NATO and the US are aching for Russia to give them an excuse to start a European war, then if Putin does go in he will be consciously sacrificing millions of people to his own hubristic need to look tough.
That’s the way the US does things. Hopefully Russia is better than that.
larchmonter445 said…
“It isn’t over in Ukraine until Putin says its over.”
Putin is still covertly propping up the NDF. The NDF still needs more volunteers to step forward.
The population of the Bosnian Serb Republic & Novorossiya are about the same.
The Bosnian Serbs had well over 100,000 under arms & Novorossiya has maybe 5,000-10,000?????
Where is everyone? Why does everyone EXPECT other people to fight for them???
Meezer
TO Anonymous who said “Russia doesn’t have the luxury of sitting back and ‘going east.’ US will heavily arm & train Ukraine Nazis to attack Crimea. War is coming. Question is who wins.”
War is already here Anon. and I understand what you are saying. However, time is most defiantly on Russia’s side. This IMF system is now exhibiting its death knell. It was dead in 2008 and has ever since been kept alive by war. Russia needs to do the hardest thing, nothing.
Moreover, language is very important and Ukraine no longer exist as a nation. It is now US occupied and controlled territory. Thus, let us use the proper terminology, Uskrainians. Sure, they may lob a shell or two and say Ops! But, remember, this is Russia, do you understand the massive fire power at her disposal?
Nevertheless, when the end of the season arrives and the northern temperatures sweep across Europe, and the Ukrainians attempt to leech off of other European nation’s gas supply and Russia puts a stop to it. The USkrainians will begin to pay attention! They will fork over their war chest borrowed from the IMF.
Let the winter come and those fxxking flatheads now fighting in the Ukraine will relearn from the experience they once made in Vietnam.
Crimea’s reunification was swift and clinically executed. However, on other issues in the Ukraine and the Middle East Putin has been out-maneuvered by the US/West who are not afraid to pursue their agenda boldly. They distracted Russia with Sochi while claiming Kiev. They are determined to get their way in reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy and bringing Ukraine into their camp by fair means or foul…mostly the latter! Germany and France will NEVER stand up to the US…stop hoping for the impossible! Russia could declare the Novorussian situation a genocide and openly supply the resistance with appropriate defensive weaponry…perhaps after trying to get an emergency response from the UN which will, of course, be killed by the US. Perception is important and right now the world is seeing Putin/Russia as being pushed around and abandoning their allies in the south and east.
a lot of denial going on, Sleboda still imagines Putin as a patriot
who put Putin in power?
the bottom line is V. Putin is a worthy successor to Yeltsin, much more effective by virtue of the masquerade
Well looky here it’s Rowan Berkley! Rowan no matter how many times you rotate you hw/mac address/vpn I’ll still trace the post to you.
I would not be surprised if War Games had shown that the best option for Russia, knowing a new color revolution would come to the Ukraine sooner or later, was to secure Krim, and make the West do all the Evil stuff, even if it cost many lives.
Creating trouble in some oil-exporting Muslim countries, by using Chechen “holy warriors” on the sunny side, and Iranians on the other, would probably be the best answer, as Europeans become very dependent on Russian energy, if the Middle East blows up.
Increased income because of higher Energy prices, would benefit Russia, at the cost of mostly the Europeans.
I’m only a Canadian but I’d wager a good bit that Putin’s ratings with the Russian people will have taken a real beating recently, what with Ukraine being left to die in the road.
Saker,Unwittingly you are contributing to the fog of war e.g. you are feeding the propaganda machine of the collapsing zioanglo empire.Stop.This war is as much a war of public opinion world wide and I mean here a VIRTUAL war as it is a ground one.You are contributing to give an advantage to the zioanglos who rule as you should know by means of deception to paraphrase the mossad motto.Why on earth should you do that?Even if the lamentations in the article above were true why would you give them ,the zioanglos an advantage by demoralizing all the ones who hate it?Have faith in God and have faith in History,no declining empire has ever resurrected!!These are the hard times where Faith in God, in Justice are to be tempted .These are the times when each of us have to show its real strength.The arc of instability and war is spreading like a pandemic as I tried to point out to you yesterday and you don’t have all the necessary knowledge to draw your conclusions because you are not aware of the covert war nor of the extend of the overt one.
I grew up thanks to the empire and to its zionists in war ,a war that has not abetted for the last 70 years since the inception of the cancerous abomination ,the zionist entity.
As you showed so much admiration for the Sayed Nasrallah you should understand that victory requires a lot more than loosing your nerves in front of an apparent defeat as in Slaviansk.
Finally being a person who put all of her faith in Hezbollah and that since the eighties,I will tell you of a discussion in the nineties with my husband who told me:your party will never win,you are crazy the abomination has nuclear weapons.My answer was yes we will because we want to with all our soul and our strength .And so we did in 2000 and 2006.You should maybe fly to Damascus and take a little of the strength of Pres. Bashar who showed that he has nerves of steel!!!!
The feast during the plague: Kiev has spent $ 5 million to a party in honor of independence day of the USA
http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/rusvesna.su/news/1404567790
.
Saker,Unwittingly you are contributing to the fog of war e.g. you are feeding the propaganda machine of the collapsing zioanglo empire.Stop.This war is as much a war of public opinion world wide and I mean here a VIRTUAL war as it is a ground one.You are contributing to give an advantage to the zioanglos who rule as you should know by means of deception to paraphrase the mossad motto.Why on earth should you do that?Even if the lamentations in the article above were true why would you give them ,the zioanglos an advantage by demoralizing all the ones who hate it?Have faith in God and have faith in History,no declining empire has ever resurrected!!These are the hard times where Faith in God, in Justice are to be tempted .These are the times when each of us have to show its real strength.The arc of instability and war is spreading like a pandemic as I tried to point out to you yesterday and you don’t have all the necessary knowledge to draw your conclusions because you are not aware of the covert war nor of the extend of the overt one.
I grew up thanks to the empire and to its zionists in war ,a war that has not abetted for the last 70 years since the inception of the cancerous abomination ,the zionist entity.
As you showed so much admiration for the Sayed Nasrallah you should understand that victory requires a lot more than loosing your nerves in front of an apparent defeat as in Slaviansk.
Finally being a person who put all of her faith in Hezbollah and that since the eighties,I will tell you of a discussion in the nineties with my husband who told me:your party will never win,you are crazy the abomination has nuclear weapons.My answer was yes we will because we want to with all our soul and our strength .And so we did in 2000 and 2006.You should maybe fly to Damascus and take a little of the strength of Pres. Bashar who showed that he has nerves of steel!!!!
Definitely a premature panic attack.
Kazakhstan, Belarus, etc are demoralised because Russia has lost Ukraine? The insurgents retreated from a city. Surely all those heads of state must know that the way guerrillas fight is by surrendering positions and then bleeding the enemy with a thousand cuts.
Or are they demoralised because Putin did not keep his word? He told the insurgents to delay the referendum and they didn’t. He proved unwilling to be railroaded into war. That’s to his credit.
Or are they demoralised because ZATO acts with impunity? It’s hardly impunity when you get to eat:
1. An insurgency with unlimited backing from across the border.
2. An economic collapse when 60% of your exports are shut down.
3. An energy collapse when your subsidized gas is shut off.
4. A political collapse when the hoped for Russian invasion fails to materialise.
Impunity indeed.
@ Caroline Louise,
I remember your comments from the guardian and I entirely agree with your comment. BTW, I used to comment there as Hedrix until they banned me.
Please let me say say how much I enjoy reading your blog. I have become a faithful follower. Also, I am very sympathetic to Russia and the people of Ukraine – particularly those in the east and south.
I’m not sure that Putin has betrayed Novorussia, although this seems to be the case on its face. Anti-Kiev forces certainly had their hopes up that Russia would decisively intervene.
But, Russia is in a very delicate situation. It is facing an extremely well choreographed and powerful political, diplomatic and media assault by Western forces (led by the US). Putin is trying to calm things down, while the US keeps hammering away with threats, sanctions and wild accusations.
Russia is in this for the long game and, as other posters have commented, now may not be the right time. Continued belligerance by the USA and Kiev may gradually tilt more EU leaders towards Russia — especially when Kiev continues to attack civilian centres with aircraft and heavy artillery, and as economic factors become increasingly uncomfortable.
Unfortunately for Novorussia, the population has not come out against Kiev en masse. Surely this is a factor in Putin’s decisions to date.
Putin has other tools at his disposal. And as the Saker pointed out previously, time may be on Russia’s side. However, the hardliners in Russia may force Putin’s hand — the ramifications of which may endure for decades.
All in all, a very difficult position for both Russia and Novorussia.
Is it too much to ask that those who bellow about “zionist trolls” at least have the courtesy and courage to append a name to their posts?
All those saying “Hah, Putin exposed as another Yeltsin”:
14 years of hard work and unprecedented results all forgotten? And if he does declare a war would you go to fight; would you even donate money?
@Saker, Can we please learn how much money was donated for the succor of East Ukrainian kids and women?
Like many here I too switch from stay out to go in and then back to stay out.
But of all the reasons to go to war, THE ABSOLUTE WORST IS “TO MAINTAIN CREDIBILITY.”
Russia is not the United States and we should rejoice at this fact, not lament it. While I understand many will see weakness in Russia’s restraint, what Russia is doing is showing the world something else entirely: how a superpower should behave. A true superpower looks for every reason to AVOID war, not any semi-plausible excuse to start one. Russia is not trying to convince the NATO elites of this, and not so much even the NATO public. It is trying to convince the rest of the world, primarily the BRICS et al, that Russia stands for rule of law and not law of the jungle. In other words, Russia will never fight a war to convince others how bad ass they are.
Russia has been through this before. An illegitimate government was brought to power in Ukraine via color revolution in 2004. Somehow Russia managed to survive. And 5 years later, a more pro Russian (perhaps only marginally) government was back and with the acceptance of the whole of Ukraine. IIRC, the Yushchenko government had a 6% approval rating. For Chocolate Hitler and his merry men, the worst is just starting. South Stream will be built. Ukraine will become a nuisance for the west rather than an asset. An embarrassment rather than a showpiece.
Around the world there are many who want Russia to lead the anti-Anglo-Zionist resistance. That includes me. That leads many to call for a beat down of fascists who clearly deserve it. In fact, those of us who pray for the resistance, need Russia to preserve its wealth and power as much as possible. Not expend it on adventures.
That said, there has to be a line they may not cross: any kind of ethnic cleansing has to be dealt with in the harshest and most painful way to the cleansers.
Dear Lysander,
The problem is that Russia made statements about protecting Russians (ethnic group/speakers). If nations perceive that the reason for Russia changing a stated policy is because Russia is vulnerable to internal/external lobbying pressure like the US is, then Russia’s hard-earned international credibility will be shot. That’s a big IF; note Russia has not reneged on its stated commitments YET, only if the Russian leadership does renege will loss in credibility occur.
Regarding credibility loss, that refers to the perception that other countries will get that Russia is vulnerable to lobby groups and it’s foreign policy can be bought or turned on a dime to the highest bidder/blackmailer just like the US – which is precisely why the US has ZERO credibility internationally and it’s also why the US finds it has to increasing use threats, blackmail (NSA) and saber rattling as policy tools because their diplomatic credibility as a commercial or geopolitical partner is ZERO. Why? Because the US has several competing centers of power and policy making, making it near impossible for international partners to make deals with that country without fearing that in a short while, when a competing power-center gains ascendency, the US will suddenly change policy directions based a different agenda, and consequently their ‘contract’ or understanding will not be fulfilled. For example the American President’s word or reassurance is near worthless (even he sincerely wants to fulfill his word or obligation) because the corrupt congress can countermand the president’s will whenever a particular ethnic or national or commercial lobby buys up enough senators/congressmen to negate the President’s commitment.
Effectively the US political system has rendered US credibility to that of a 3rd-world country with a 1st-world economy. In many 3rd world countries international business cannot make deals because the rules can change overnight due to the whims of the dictator or corrupt assembly. Due to the dysfunctional Lobby-ridden US Congress the same dynamic applies to the US on an international level. (For concrete example of this dynamic: It is one of the reasons no-one wants to buy weapons systems from US contractors, because the whims of Congress makes the US highly unreliable supplier, a whim of Congress or the President can shutdown a supply contract mid-way – look at maliki and the F-16s that have never been delivered).
@ Cu Chulainn
“the bottom line is V. Putin is a worthy successor to Yeltsin, much more effective by virtue of the masquerade”
Total nonsense. If you are going to go to the trouble of pushing “send,” why not substantiate your ludicrous claim?
Quaker saying, “Don’t just do something, stand there.”
herb
I think it was Juan who said that he thought that he was not in a good position to see the battlefield or the war in its broader context. This makes entire sense because he is dealing with death everyday. Therefore his focus is intense but limited in field, of necessity. He is totally focused on his and his compatriot’s survival. And rightly so.
Mark Sleboda lives in Moscow and has said on RT that he has in-laws ‘at the barricades” in Eastern Ukraine. He is one step removed from Juan but only one step. Mark is focused on the survival of his family. And rightly so. This focus diminishes the broader context for him. This is natural for a compassionate human being which he most certainly is. And I would guess that all of us would be the same in his position.
Another thing we need to take into account is that the human mind uses fear to bring intensity to our attention for the purpose of maximising our survival in the immediate term. But this is at the expense of awareness of the longer term. For nature, though, it’s always a case of first things first.
Psychopaths spend their whole lives studying we normal human beings. They pay particular attention to what we have and what they do not. They do not have an emotional reaction to the possible demise of fellow beings. So they become acutely aware of this reaction in us. They experiment with ways to use our compassionate and often brave responses against us. They focus on ways to distort or stop our thinking of the larger picture – what’s coming next.
Right now the Anglo/Zionists are creating chaos every where they can in the world in order to increase the level of fear to get us to not think clearly and make blunders. They are hoping to rescue themselves from the jaws of defeat. The noise, smoke and chaos is going to get worse.
Knowing this and also the nature of psychopathy makes it reasonably easy to predict the psychopaths’ strategy although they may surprise from time to time regarding tactics.
Putin (and I am going to include his close advisers), to me, have demonstrated a quite profound knowledge of the psychopathic drive of the Anglo/Zionist regime and also what that regime depends on to survive.
Putin has consistently demonstrated courage and preparedness to act both diplomatically, economically and militarily. To assume he will go against his oft repeated claim that he will protect Russians abroad is to deny history and our own experience of him. This is not clear thinking. It is instead the sort of fearful thinking the evil ones would promote – drawing conclusions from our fears rather than our experience.
Putin has said that he will protect fellow Russians and yet he seems to be standing aside and doing nothing. There are two possibilities. Either we are basing our assessment on wrong information (i.e. he was and is lying) or we do not have full information (i.e. there is missing information)
What could that be? I suggest it is the words implied but not expressed in his statement. So perhaps we should read Putin’s words as, “Russia will protect Russians abroad, WHEN THERE IS NO ONE ELSE TO PROTECT THEM. WHEN WE BECOME THEIR LAST RESORT”
I can well imagine this being the case because Putin has repeatedly reinforced the right of EVERY nation to its complete sovereignty. It is the foundation on his ‘multi-polar world’. He has allowed, for instance in the case of Crimea, people to organize and defend themselves and not jumped in and taken over from them.
Perhaps what we have seen in Eastern Ukraine is Putin’s respect for the Novorossian people’s right to defend and protect themselves along with Ukraine’s right to sovereignty. That sounds perhaps a little weird to some people but remember Putin is a trained lawyer and is red hot on acting legally. He cannot expect anyone else to act legally if he doesn’t.
(to be continued)
(continued)
Up till now the people of Slaviansk have been able to defend themselves after a fashion. But now they cannot at all. Kiev has made that very clear. They have announced that they control Slaviansk.
But we know that psychopaths are bent on destruction and revenge. We know that and I’m sure Vladimir Putin knows that. So they are predictable. So what is going to happen to the people now in Slavyansk?
I think the world will witness gross violations against the remaining population in Slaviansk with absolutely no one to protect them
Putin will then have the legal and moral right and obligation to intervene in Ukraine and the Anglo/Zionists will bury themselves with their own propaganda.
I could be wrong because there is always lots of information I do not have. But one thing I do know is that Vladimir Putin is consistent and true to his word.
Putin has either dissapointed us completely or is about to spectacularly surprise us.
Let us hope it is the later.
Fernando
This site sure has a lot of folks who make one wonder where the term “concern trolling” came from.
Russia made the reasonable bet that not overtly helping those inside the Ukraine who might resist was good for PR purposes in dealing with key countries, such as Germany. So, yes, a lot of folks in Germany, Austria, or Poland are now aware that crazy radicals are on the loose. But will that change the behavior of their governments?
As for geopolitics, international relations, and the Eurasian Union, yes, the impression is that Russia will tolerate a lot before using significant force. But, is that the real issue? Isn’t the issue whether the results are favorable for Russia? In other words, let us see how things look in February. Will there be a million refugees into Poland making a European choice? Furthermore, if Russia did intervene, what would happen? Would that make countries want to join the Eurasian Union? Would Russia’s relations with Germany or India improve or at least not get worse?
It may well be what Alexander M. said about Russian diplomacy perhaps hitting the wall. So now comes the unpleasant time that the Kremlin had wanted to avoid. Germany and France cannot stop the US from doing what it wants.
Anon 1:55:
Crimea’s reunification was swift and clinically executed. However, on other issues in the Ukraine and the Middle East Putin has been out-maneuvered by the US/West who are not afraid to pursue their agenda boldly.
On the other hand, you can read in the western press that US/NATO feels Russia has been three steps ahead of it the entire time on Ukraine. So which is it? You wringing your hands about Russia being behind or NATO Generals wringing their hands about Russia being ahead?
They are determined to get their way in reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy
With what? Unicorn farts? Please keep in mind, the US was, is, and will be a net importer of oil and gas for the forseeable future where Russia is able to export 1/3-1/2 of its production, and that Russian oil production is 50% higher than US production while Russian gas production is about 10% higher than the US. The ploy of exporting America oil and gas is to bring domestic producer prices to world market levels, something fiercly opposed by industrial users and ordinary consumers, and will simply mean the US has to import more Canadian and Mexican gas – if it is available. If Europe wanted to import Qatari LNG, it could certainly have done so by now, but it doesn’t because Russian gas is far cheaper.
and bringing Ukraine into their camp
We’ll see about that too.
I fully agree with Stepping Razor – all the blather about a major paradigm shift in global power because the Ukrainian Army and Air Force combined have managed to re-take a small hamlet which has been expected to fall daily for weeks is premature and foolish.
When the collapse of Ukraine comes, it will be economic and not as the result of military action, and certainly not when Putin gallops into Kiev on his white charger. Kiev is slowly but surely destroying its own tax base in the east, and without it the entire IMF package will have to be renegotiated, because the IMF is not going to throw away money with no hope of ever getting it back, and Kiev needs the east to do that.
The Novorossiyans who want to be a part of the Russian Federation are still a distinct minority, while most prefer federalism within Ukraine. Putin has recommended that, and beyond his recommendation he owes Ukraine nothing. It is important to remember that under ordinary circumstances the UN would have put a stop to this long ago – for reasons of its own, it is ignoring what’s going on. Putin has taken the right actions to stop the killing via international law, but that is now worthless because it has been co-opted by the west. Just how much is Putin supposed to do?
Russia was Ukraine’s largest trading partner by a significant margin, and the EU would have to double its imports from Ukraine to just stay even. It’s not going to do that, and Ukraine’s economy will buckle under the pressure – all the people have seen since the new sheriff came to town is gas prices jumping by about 60% and the introduction of austerity. Now its gas has been shut off, and in order to make the magic of reverse flow work it is going to have to mooch gas off of Europe, during the winter. That has a limited period of appeal, as I think you can imagine. Meanwhile all those weepy Maidan screamers who went on and on about the rule of law have been watching the west casually ignore international law, while its own government ignores the Ukrainian constitution (which forbids the use of the military to suppress the civilian population).
The saddest thing, and the west’s greatest success, is in having made Ukraine and Russia enemies of one another, and I don’t think that can be undone. But a powerful, wealthy Ukraine with a bristling new military and NATO and EU membership is quite a bit beyond current vision.
Dan Greene, if you are not aware, Berezovsky was godfather to both Boris and Putin
http://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2009/03/05/selected-reminiscences-of-eduard-hodos/
@Frustrated Canadian .. So am I. Both Canadian and frustrated. It doesn’t help that I have dear friends who are family-related to Western Ukrainians. Here I cannot volunteer anything about strategy or even tactics, but I would say that Facebook / internet has been enabling, and that it also consoles, and that I’m glad my heart is not the only foreign heart that is very sympathetic to the people who are fighting for Novorossiya.
Grieved said …
“But also, some people are waving their TROLL flags a little too triumphantly too – and rather prematurely.”
YES!
“Of all the posts here in the last 24 hours I rate the article by Dmitri Steshin as the most useful: Slavyansk is out of sight now… He at least speaks to the situation on the ground from the heart of the rebels – who are now a large army about to kick serious ass.
His article only received 7 comments, I don’t know why, when it offers more hope and clarity than anything else here currently. ”
Just 7 comments because the trolling Russian-phobic crowd has fallen upon this blog yesterday like a biblical plague, and are doing their “homework” profusely. In my view the Saker attracted them with his last posts speaking out his mind over the federalists “abandonment” of Slaviansk, and Russia not sending the army in the Donbas. The ‘trolling machine’ must have thought he had changed his mind but they are wrong. In a couple of days they’ll see the Saker admitting, in all honesty as he uses to do, that he failed to grasp the whole thing and he was mistaken. (mostly driven by the knot in his stomach, for this war is too emotionally charged for him, and it is understandable)
I think this “abandonment” of Slaviansk has been a planned move by Igor (Strelkov), of which we cannot see the whole picture yet. He seems to me a master strategist. He is very precise, and each and every word he pronounces has a purpose, even when he *supposedly* whines “ohmy we’re surrounded, we cannot hold on any longer”. That’s a little bit of drama to spice the story and spread dis-information to the fascist-Junta. My guess is, given his personal sense of humour, he sometimes explodes in laughters after “performing”.
Agree with you on the rating of Steshin’s article. You may also enjoy this one by Robles:
Analysis of July 5 Slaviansk Developments
http://syncreticstudies.com/2014/07/05/analysis-of-july-5-slaviansk-developments/#more-1028
.
What Ukraine, Europe and the US deserve is a long, bleeding decade of civil war in the heart of Europe – Nazi war criminals on one side and working class/country/Soviet/Christian/Russian idealists on the other. This is the existential conflict of the 21st century. I hope all people of good faith and conscience will support Novorussia in any and every way possible.
The longer the war lasts, the better. The time has come for a change.
So much spin effort. Get a hold of yourself.
1) “tell people that the morally correct, war defeating action of a direct Russian intervention is ‘simplistic’ and therefore ‘anti intellectual’.”
Funny one… representing someone elses stance introducing within it your own opinion regarding said stance. If we remove “war defeating” the phrase becomes:
“tell people that the morally correct,[…] action of a direct Russian intervention is ‘simplistic’ and therefore ‘anti intellectual’.”
Are you denying the complexity of the situation? Is recognizing complexity automatically condescending in your book?
2) Perception of Putin vs Obama. Confining yourself to the perception within Novorussia, as if the consequences would not cross borders. Ignoring in the meanwhile the core issue of following or not International Law in a conflict settlement.
3) That one you bring from the forums you’re supposedly regular on. You’ll find much more pervasive the opinion that any sanctions will actually backfire on US/EU – the actual ones in financial/economic trouble – indeed this advises against intervention.
3.1) “if they witnessed the end of violence in Ukraine.” by observing RF escalating violently the situation. You’re admiting yourself the complexity of the situation…
4) You keep misrepresenting. Delaying intervention may have as consequence aggravating circumstances for the victims of Kiev/US, it still does not imply that is the condition for delaying such a decision. You’re looking at the thinking modus of the US, which Russia so far as demonstrated not to follow. Also don’t confuse taking the necessary to inform one’s decision on such grave issue with procrastination. You keep simplifying.
“zionist trolls” you say, I am sorry but I take offense, apparently merely entertaining doubt and adopting a cautionary stance equates with that in the book of the complextons.
my previous comment is directed at Anonymous 1:08
Russia WILL protect east Ukrainians, but it will be in measured escalation. They will eventually give them strategic advice and intelligence, then better weapons, and then air cover through a unilaterally imposed no-fly zone.
This is not the end of the war, but it will be a sustained geo-political struggle until the European governments can stomach it no further, and pressure peace talks.
@Fernando said Putin has either disappointed us completely or is about to spectacularly surprise us. Let us hope it is the later.
As a rule, the greater the change, the less spectacular it is. The greatest changes (in general) are slow moving.
Putin and Co. are probably working on chip-by-chip dismantling of USD’s role as a reserve currency. This is happening even now, though it escapes media’s attention.
The issues of supporting Donbas and Russia’s image are not identical.
I think a solution is the next time Russian territory or border posts are shelled the response should be a quick incursion, maybe by air, to take out the offending artillery. This defends Russian territory, shows that there are consequences for crossing certain ‘red lines’ and that Russia is not weak, but does not aggravate the situation regarding Donbas because it’s a separate issue with different laws and motivations in play.
_Blue
The issues of supporting Donbas and Russia’s image are not identical.
I think a solution is the next time Russian territory or border posts are shelled the response should be a quick incursion, maybe by air, to take out the offending artillery. This defends Russian territory, shows that there are consequences for crossing certain ‘red lines’ and that Russia is not weak, but does not aggravate the situation regarding Donbas because it’s a separate issue with different laws and motivations in play.
_Blue
I hope that what larchmonter445 said at 06 July, 2014 00:24 gets published in the Russian language for the Russian citizens who are putting it all on President Putin’s shoulders to ponder (and hopefully to act).
Semchenko participated in the hollows of the bodies of the soldiers
http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/2516-semchenko-uchastvoval-v-vyemkah-organov-u-soldat.html
“05.07.2014 the correspondence between the lawyer Tymoshenko Vlasenko with the German surgeon Olga Weber and the commander of a battalion “The Donbas” Semyon Semenchenko.
Now it is clear why they found bodies without organs. [1] Even discussing the possibility to improve the quality taking bodies not dead, and “heavy” and “hopeless” [wounded, injured conditions].
*SOG-heart, nep(hrone)-kidney; hep(ar)-the liver; pan(creas)- pancreas, pul(mon)-easy”
Examples of their dialog:
“Judging by the news, events for us)) As I think the course will not change?
Sergiy Vlasenko
15.04.2014 21:31
Sergiy Vlasenko
Not expected, will work with anything! “Our Western partners” its policy we create good conditions, and the main thing – the number!
Olga Wieber
15.04.2014 21:36
Olga Wieber
Are you and the Western partners. Diabetics have a lot,so there is a demand..
10 may
Olga Wieber
10.05.2014 22:04
Olga Wieber
can we, then, it is better to work as before? Heavy and hopeless at least have access to normal, and the conditions are not much worse?
Sergiy Vlasenko
22.05.2014 22:05
Sergiy Vlasenko
Yes, right now, more Israel will gather and ship immediately!
Olga Wieber
08.06.2014 12:43
Olga Wieber
Well, Simon. Our fellow Germans and Jews you provided?
Semyon Semenchenko
18.03.2014 20:24
Semyon Semenchenko
We had problems with the last batch!!! Lots of low-quality goods, our customers dissatisfied! You all need to do quickly! Accelerate, promo that if you do not keep within 14 hours from the moment of confiscation and we get only 30% of the cost! So you don’t get your outfit, you know?
Semyon Semenchenko
26.05.2014 17:33
Semyon Semenchenko
I know, Sergey Vladimirovich. We try, we have a lot of losses, that’s the last time more than 20 children have lost!
Sergiy Vlasenko
26.05.2014 17:34
Sergiy Vlasenko”
[1] Outside of Mariupol a mass grave, or graves, was found with dozens (maybe 100s) of bodies with with abdomen and chest cavities cut open and empty.
The ZPC mafia is running a similar human organ “business” in the Ukraine now, as the one they ran during the break-up of Yugoslavia.
This is only about real estate. The never-invited Russians still in Ukraine and Estonia and elsewhere can simply go back home. Nobody is stopping them. Just go back home to Russia.
Simple as that.
Putin isn’t going to fight WWIII over this stolen real estate…lol.
The Ukrainian government will spend five million dollars to a party on the occasion of independence day of the USA
http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/api-x.livejournal.com/17619.html
“Almost five million dollars, half of which will go to the fee famous pop singer Riana, plan to spend the Ukrainian authorities to the party on the occasion of US independence Day. The party will be organized as a gift to the son of the Vice-President of the USA hunter Biden, a member of the Board of Directors of the Ukrainian gas company Burisma Holdings. About it to Agency of Political Investigations (API) has told the assistant to one of the Ministers of the Ukrainian government.
“The party will be devoted to the independence Day of the 4th of July and will be presented by our government as a gift to his son Biden. The exact amount you will spend the government, is unknown, but speak about the sum of five million dollars. Just know that, at the invitation of the singer Riany will spend no less than two million. Also visitors will be able to use the services of 50 prostitutes. Their selection was ordered himself Petya to Listerman.
Information about the place and time of the party kept in strict secret. All members of the government have warned that they will tell the exact time and venue an hour before. It is not surprising that our government is concerned that if our people know about the party, you can simply make a riot, being indignant with such spending,” shared information source API.
Experts API believe that the Ukrainian government is making a big mistake, organizing such events.
“About this party and expenditures on her already know many people who are against the government. So learn and write about it to the journalists. Hardly the Ukrainian people, which is well aware that the country is in debt, will approve such expenses on pleasing to the Americans,” says one of the experts API.”
They probably used the bandera nazi associated feminist PR group FEMEN to supply them the with the prostitutes.
The assault on citizens by their government in the East is repulsive and horrid. With all due respect to the author, a couple of exceptions to his arguments stick out.
It’s not over, not by a long shot. If Putin is smart, he’ll lead from behind. He stood up in Syria. He took back Crimea. He can literally do nothing and watch Ukraine descent into madness and poverty. The EU will covertly beg him to move in.
Doing nothing is too cynical and as the author says, this would harm Russia’s standing and influence. Clearly, Putin has to make a move very soon. If things go on without a response to the horrors of the Kiev regime, then this analysis applies. But, this crisis is still a long way from finished.
Let’s see what happens in the next week or two before declaring victory for the US-EU expansionists. They’re also facing a tough future. If Russia takes part of the East, then Ukraine lacks any semblance of economic viaiblity. If Russia fails to take the East, then the US-EU are stuck with a nation that will fail very soon. It’s just a matter of taking their lumps now or in the not too distant future.
> “All moral and national security issues aside for a moment, the precedent that Russia’s inaction is setting …”
You just can’t set national security interests aside – Putin is President of a vast country, with BIG complex interests. He has to protect his country economically as well as militarily.
I don’t know how deeply the feeling of brotherhood runs between Russians and Novorussiyans, but I think it might be less deep than Saker imagines and than Saker feels himself.
Horrific though the slaughter is already, it is tiny compared to the Nazi invasion/Soviet scorched earth retreat, and the reverse 3 years later.
And the US is on the point of total financial collapse, don’t forget. The next set of GDP figures for Q2 might well be the catalyst, or French/German refusal to go along with US sanctions, or Saudi Arabia dropping the Petrodollar, or …
There is no way NATO can attack Russia when it is the EU’s major gas supplier and US’s #5 oil importer (4.7% in 2013).
Putin already lost ALL of Ukraine in February, then won Crimea back in March (without a shot being fired), and hasn’t lost Donbass yet. If Kiev has to reduce its industrial base to rubble to win back control then that is their funeral. They’re only hastening their own bankruptcy – IMF loans won’t help them.
Think bigger picture, like Putin has to do.
Yesterday, I criticised Observer on another thread. After reading his comment above, I realise I have completely misunderstood his position. Please accept my apologies. I was trying to help by easing the passage around what seemed to be a point of contention; any misrepresentation was not deliberate.
I keep hearing that the Ukrainian economy will collapse this winter, and that this will somehow transfer into a huge political gain for the pro-russian side.
I disagree.
1. The Ukrainian econmy will collapse but only in the long run. The country will be credited by the IMF and similar credit institutions. With the dollar as the fiat currency of the world they can inflate their way for as long as it tkaes in order to generate the collapse of Russia.
2. The guerilla war in Donbass will destroy the economic base of Novorossia. Actually this is a scortched earth policy. It will the Russians who will have to pay for reconstructing this area if they ever came back. So as long as things remain as they are today the economic punishment is on the pro-russian side.
3.Unfortunately politicians in Western Europe and in the East as well respect only power and economic interest. The fact that Russia is unwilling to defend its own in Novorussia is a huge sign of weakness. POlitical elites in both Western and Eastern Europe will conclude that it makes no sense to stand up to America. Mark Sleboda is right in his assessment.
Putin is a very dangerous zone and I hope he has a card up his sleeve.
For the time being he was outplayed by the “Nazis” like Victoria Nu(de)lman, Zbigniew Brejinsky, and Kolomyski.
@ Observer 06 July, 2014 05:10
If Putin made a promise of military intervention that he could not keep, then he made a big mistake. If he tries to keep that promise, even though he can’t, he will be making a much bigger mistake. At any rate, when Putin urged them NOT to hold their referendum, and they went ahead and did it anyway, he is absolved of any promise he might have made. That doesn’t make the destruction and murder of Novorassia any better, it just means Putin had warned them of it.
Also, we don’t know why Putin is not intervening openly. Some are making the assumption that he is afraid of sanctions, ostracism by the west, etc. But it could just as easily be he never wanted Donbass in the first place. He doesn’t want to pay for it, rebuild it, be responsible for it, etc. It could be he wants to set a precedent of non-aggression. Or maybe he fears any intervention could result in a much worse bloodbath than we have now. Crimea was bloodless. An invasion of Novorassia wont be.
Or maybe domestic opinion just isn’t there. Crimea’s integration into Russia is expensive and there are budget cuts to pay for it. Maybe people don’t want to pay for Donbass as well. Also, the last thing Russia needs is a war that half the country supports and the other half hates. That sort of division is poison.
Or perhaps he figures the Kiev junta is doomed to collapse in a year or two and there is no reason to be blamed for it. The Orange revolution proved to be ephemeral. This second incarnation as the Brown revolution will probably be even shorter.
That said, if the Ukies are planning an ethnic cleansing as per that Rand report, then Russia has to intervene and do so with gusto, IMHO. But to intervene just to show others you are tough is just plain madness. It’s the US/Israeli way of thinking. It should never be the Russian way.
Who does Strelkov take his orders from?or is he working autonomously?
From interfax
Strelkov plans to set up military council, prepare Donetsk for active defense.
But for a world war worthy of that name you have to drag Russia and China in.
How? Bit by bit, at least at present. Provoke Russia. Putin doesn’t take the bait but he may at least be pinned down and therefore less able to team up with Iran and Syria big time to squelch ISIS and restore some kind of peace (which our friends don’t want since ISIS must consolidate its base).
Assad’s effective resistance and Russia’s defusing the chem attack hoax may have delayed things, Icke says, but the plan is intact. From this WWIII plot viewpoint, I think that the chem hoax may have actually been a feint, or half-hearted from the start. The US-EU cold feet in September – plus Russia’s apparent(?) diplomatic victory – may have provided the incentive to the ISIS fighters to move north and burst through a conveniently open door.
Anyway, according to the general Icke vision, when the time is ripe, our friends in high places will work on destabilising Crimea and will then make a move to seize it off Russia, which would most likely cause Russia to come out militarily against the West. Can China be far behind?
Icke and the interviewer, by the way, are no Putin groupies. They disparagingly stress Putin’s “ego” and “pride” as a factor in this scenario. Sufficiently bruised, Putin’s ego/pride will likely lead him to bring Russia into this generalised war.
Icke rounds off saying these people are “not like you or me” (or words to that effect). Since they’re “pure evil” (his words), our own way of thinking serves as a fairly poor guide in figuring out their moves.
Whatever the aetiology, background or core issues etc. (and here’s the rub) the two fronts ARE, I believe, highly interconnected, and the potential scale of the struggle is precisely as in the purported Pike letter.
Why Slavyansk? 5 million weapons and munition. Small arms, now destroyed. The cement plant blown up? The ‘crematorium’ for many. The power plant? Shelled so it could not be used for the coal. Today the kjiv Ukies posted a video of burned up guns and acted as if their prize was lost. I’m sure the stocks where ‘cherry’ picked and sent south and much of the ammunition, but a lot (most) had to be burned. If the average gun weighed 1.5Kg that would have made 7.5 million kg = 75000 long tons or 2000 semi trucks worth or up to $1b in conflict arms sales and that is without the ammunition. AK-47 rounds are in big demand in Africa.
The big job got done by the few, the courageous and brave.
I pray for all those that got left behind and died for this cause. Imagine what the kjiv junta would have done, arm their side to the teeth….
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9e422a76-d212-11e3-97a6-00144feabdc0.html
The rhetoric used by Putin and Lavrov are to hide the fact that they are not men of their words, and are in fact cowards.
Take this example, do you think China will allow North Korea to be invaded by the US, and in fact why does the US not try it?
Because the US respects and fears China.
US doesn’t respect or fear Russia, it does what it wants, and Russia like a little smothered animal watches and wimps, with silly words like colleagues and partners.
The neocons in America only respect the strong, not the weak, and your Putin and Russia are showing weakness.
Russia is no bear, it is a mouse.
Shame on Russia. It is very painful to watch a supposed nuclear superpower behave this way.