by Mark Sleboda
What the Kremlin’s inaction over the Ukraine means for Russia’s geopolitics, international relations, and the Eurasian Union:
All moral and national security issues aside for a moment, the precedent that Russia’s inaction is setting in the Ukraine in terms of both geopolitics and foreign policy alone is crippling. The surrender of Ukraine to the West by Russia inevitably means exactly that the US achieves its primary goal – the end of the Eurasian Union project and the Russian/Eurasian civilizational space.
Russia has now set the precedent that it does not have the right, ability, or political will to act or intervene in the post Soviet space when facing serious Western opposition. Further it has set the precedent that the US and EU DO have both the right and ability to act to the point of orchestrating regime change, civil war, and the complete domestic political reordering and geopolitical reorientation of a country in what was once considered Russia’s “near abroad” and that Russia lacks the ability and/or political will to counter or resist this in any way. It will grumble but just accept the new status quo to preserve “peace” and a conception of “business as usual”. That is to say, appeasement.
The lessons that the governments and peoples of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan will invariably take away from Russia’s inaction in the Ukraine are:
(1) that they can neither trust nor rely on Russia to support or defend them when the West comes for them, as it inevitably will, whether with unconventional warfare/color revolutions or with direct military action and
(2) the complete impunity with which the new Kiev regime is not only massacring people who are calling directly on Russia for succor but has also shelled Russian territory, borderposts, homes, and citizens no less than 9 times in 3 weeks tells the former Soviet space that they need neither respect nor fear us, as we have no respect or political will even to defend ourselves, whether out of fear of Western ostracism, economic dependability, or fear of using our own military force in earnest to defend our interests when faced with serious opposition by the West. Respect, loyalty, and fear are important and essential aspects of Russian and Eurasian socio-cultural values and conceptions of leadership and hierarchy throughout history. Without them, there is no leadership and the center cannot hold.
I was going though his out loud with my wife just earlier today, and when we arrived home she coincidentally stumbled across prominent Armenian political bloggers despairingly mocking and deriding the Kremlin’s paralysis in near those same terms, confirming my fears.
If Putin’s inaction in the face of what is happening in the Ukraine continue much longer it will not only mean the loss of Ukraine to the West, but in the long-term the suicide of Putin’s own plans for a re-consolidation of even the core of the post-Soviet space particularly in the form of the Eurasian Union, as well as the end of dreams of a wider Eurasian civilization or “Russian world”. The US will have achieved its primary goal in all of this, Russia’s geopolitical horizons will shrink further to its own borders (or not even that), and it will in truth fade and diminish itself to the role and form of just another “normal nation-state” as fifth columnists like Dmitri Trenin at Carnegie speak of so longingly. “The end of Eurasia” as he once put it, in truth…
Saker Message:
@ Grieved,
I stick to my previous comment that Putin/Russia does the exact right thing. It seems that people confuse having a strategy with being a coward.
Putin safeguarded the most precious gem [Crimea] while everybody else was busy in Kiev.
He revoked his right to operate militarily in the Ukraine, New Russia is still standing [and fighting], Slovyansk is ‘liberated’ again [perhaps they left some sappers behind to start a slowburning guerrilla warfare in the rear. It’s funny how MSM says the army ‘fled’ from Slovyansk, because I see a strategic regrouping and not a senseless wasting of lives and blood. Fight another day. Turns this in ‘Death by a thousand cuts.’ The Ukrainian army has everything and then some, so bleed them to death one blow at a time. These are asymmetrical and evolving battles. No need to rush and or hurry anything.
We’ll see what happens in ‘liberated’ Slovyansk in the coming weeks and months.
Remember Poro said it was a matter of hours over a month ago.
So I toast to the brave men and women who put their lives on the line and admire your courage and bravery.
Cheers!
Ok, I see there is no point in further discussion; the ones who say “Putin is a traitor, he is lost” are a bit alarmistic, it is not yet so, although situation has worsened.
On the other hand those who say “Putin is winning, look at the bigger picture” have a religious belief in the man (I see it often within the Russian diaspora) and religion can’t be contested.
In a civilized, high-level discussion as this one used to be, when each part begins to accuse the other of trolling, it’s time to drop the matter. Time will tell.
I fear that Ukris will “cleanse” Slavyansk (with full complicity from MSM) and proceed to repeat the shell/bomb/ cut out operation with Donetsk and Lugansk. Their morale received a boost and equipment is flowing in. I hope to be wrong but I am afraid I am right.
My contribution now is limited to this particular aspect: over-confidence in Europe. Russian passivity is winning Germany, the EU is understanding, the EU will do…
Ladies and gentlemen: how many of you live in Europe, know someone in the European institutions, have access to European media at least in the most important languages (English, French, German, Spanish, Italian)?
The picture as seen from Europe is different and Europeans will agree with me.
There are quarrels inside the Union, but the pro-US stance is not in discussion. The new European leadership is going to be a xerocopy of the former.
The strongest dissident, the UK, is even more pro-American than the rest.
TTIP will pass, slowly but will pass, there is not enough opposition.
Germany has become more silent, this is true, but cannot pull back: they have been very active in promoting the Maidan thing (probably to please their Eastern satellites and win new Ostraum). They will probably refuse to endorse more sanctions, but I wouldn’t expect more. France is in full confusion. Italy is heavily damaged by the disruption of trade with Russia, but has no voice.
The European media are completely silent about the events in Donbass, Irak is receiving a much wider coverage, for comparison. 90% of the Europeans vaguely know that there is some strife between Russia and Ukraine in places with strange names, and Russia wants to bite away another piece of the neighbouring Country after Crimea. The rest is a vocal but very small minority. This is all. The ones nearest to the theater of operations, the East Europeans, are the most Russophobic. European public opinion won’t have any weight.
Finally, as to the gas, Banderastan has large reserves; when they are over, probably even before, they will simply steal the gas being sent to Europe (pipes are the same) and the Eurpeans will blame Putin for this. It happened before.
So, think what you want, but just don’t rely on Europe for a change in attitudes.
Rockerduck
Dear The Saker,
An interesting article from Mark Sleboda. I enjoy watching him on RT and he has admitted he has family in Ukraine trying to get out too. I feel he is frustrated but his view is not quite right.
If anything Russia is gaining from the Bandera and USG lunatic methods – yes innocents are dying – but it exposes to the world the double standards.
The Eurassian Union will only grow – two bloggers do not constitute anything.
I think Mark is getting over emotional and very negative and its a shame – he should try a bit more to be supportive of his Govt. and look at the bigger picture. He is feeding the 5th column – unintentionally.
Things are changing slowly but surely and I think the Kremlin has been very active – but in different ways. Look at the economic angle……South Stream etc…..
Let’s see what happens post BRICS……..
Rgds,
Veritas
Hi Saker
I would not give up on Putin just yet. I can see a pattern and an objective to his actions.
Russia can of course end this Ukraine business any time it wishes. The question is clearly the management of the fall out.
The Russian government are being “restrained” but carefully cataloguing everything in strict legal definition.
There is a growing disconnect over this is issue between Europe and the US and this is frankly a much bigger geopolitical fish than the fate of some ethnic Russians in East Ukraine.
we are seeing massive human rights violations, which many in Europe are becoming very concerned with, we have very real fundamental economic interests that European nations do not intend to jeopardise and of course fury over US spying.
If the sacrifice now and in the immediate future of Russians in Slavyansk and other cities is the cost of knocking Europe out of lockstep with the US and changing forever the security architecture of Europe for ever. It is a cost that Putin and his ministers and generals will believe is worth paying.
If it takes to long or just becomes apparent is to ambitious, Russia already has enough good reason to act and would just have to accept the consequences.
You cannot blame them for taking risks for the bigger prize.
On the effects of the Ukrainian crisis on the interests of Italy:
http://www.voltairenet.org/article184516.html
I think Russia has so far done the best possible thing under the circumstances, and I trust that, in the future, they will know how to respond if the situation changes.
There is, however, one thing I don’t understand: all throughout the month of June, when they controlled the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council, why didn’t the Russians publicize the ethnic cleansing in Ukraine more forcefully? Were they afraid of domestic backlash? Raising false expectations in Donbass? What?
To cheer up all of you here in the throes of despair over Slavyansk, check out Pat Lang’s latest:
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2014/07/the-rise-of-novorossiya-ttg.html
The Russian government’s main concern is to avoid nuclear war. Criticisms of Russia not jumping into one are not justified. The situation in Ukraine is terrible but if Russia moves in to help the New Russians then war begins. The Russians know that the US is prepared and willing to launch a nuclear strike and are just looking or an excuse. The Russians will dodge and weave and bend and turn and twist to avoid it. Those who call for Putin to intervene now with military force are in effect calling for nuclear war that will destroy us all. Look at the bigger picture. Russia is not weak or craven or betraying anyone. Russia is trying too prevent the destruction of the world by the USA.
Chris in Toronto
Russia is not going to do anything to help the people of Donetsk and Lugansk in their war for independence from Ukraine. In fact, the fascist regime in Kiev can do pretty much whatever it wants to the people in the Donbass region (e.g., bomb civilians, carry out mass arrests in recaptured towns, and even massacre the local population) and Russia will look the other way.
I look for a massive reaction to a border shelling incident soon. Strong enough to teach the Ukrainian leadership a lesson once and for all and send a clear signal to Washington as well. My take on the Russian leader is that he will make sure that the timing will be perfect to make the longest lasting impression.
Saker
Thanks for this and all your great contributions but here, for a change, I find I must disagree. I’m not a Russian so I don’t feel the emotion about the UkieNazi war crimes and atrocities as deeply as you and appreciate that for you it’s more visceral. For the record I agreed almost word for word with your post: “for the record strelkov iazov and my position …”. I appreciate also that you are perfectly correct in stating that the “political appearance” is important, but it isn’t all.
As you’ve said a number of times, and so have I in previous posts here, Washington has started a war with Russia. It isn’t a conventional war as we’ve known them in the past but involves an information war and the predominance of subversion as against direct armed attack, unless the target is weak (somebody in the pentagon has obviously studied Sun Tze). This is the fourth reich’s preferred method now, backstabbing and weasel tactics, in direct contrast to Hollywood’s gung-ho portrayal of the fourth reich’s military actions. It is also being waged pretty much globally. The stage is much wider than just the Ukraine. This is just a diversionary strike aimed at causing the maximum chaos in Russia’s backyard and attempting to force Russia to react in a way that will damage it. The “victories” in this war will take time to appear, and so will the final result. Vladimir Putin has effectively outlined what victory will look like to his Foreign Service and ambassadors by stating that their objective is end Washington’s hegemony and introduce a multi-polar world de facto since de juro hasn’t worked. Washington of course will utilise any means possible to prevent this. This seems to me to be the meaning of the fourth reich’s actions in the Ukraine.
I keep banging on the drum that VP’s primary responsibility is to Russia and the Russian people, no matter how much he wnts to crush the Bandero-cockroaches underfoot. As the scout Mackintosh in the film Ulzana’s Raid said (roughly) “… the first one to make a mistake gets to bury his people”. In this case VP needs not only to avoid burying his people but his country as well. The fascist Cheney has voiced the desire to break Russia up into small parts to prevent it being a World power ever again and defy the fourth reich. You can be sure that that is Neo-Con-Nazi policy and thus the white house puppet’s as well. So this really is a fight to the death, the fourth reich’s hegemony vs. Russia’s continued existence
In your previous posts, you bemoan VP and the Kremlin’s inactivity but I’d draw to your attention their great victory in persuading Austria to stick two fingers up at the EU and the US in supporting the South Stream. Others are likely to follow. Italy will soon assume the role of head of the EU council of ministers and has stated effectively that cooperation with Russia and no sanctions are its aim. This indicates to me that the Kremlin has a long-term plan in operation and it’s working. Also Russia has much work to draw China, India, Iran and possibly Pakistan into a cooperative union. It seems to me that the Ukraine is a diversionary strike aimed at undermining this. Sometimes inaction in one place is essential in order to make progress elsewhere.
Continued …..
Continuing …..
Tony Cartalucci has written an article in NEO: journal-neo.org/2014/07/05/ukraine-kiev-s-ticking-time-bomb/, it’s a view many have expressed right from the beginning of the current situation. I think it’s not only relevant but crucial. VP has previously stated that Russia doesn’t have territorial ambitions towards Novorussia and I believe him. You’ve previously made the key point that for every proposed action one must ask the question “then what?”. Russia already has the responsibility of upgrading Crimea to first world standards. It’s estimated that it will cost northwards of 2 billion USD. If Russia intervenes to protect Novorussia, “then what?”. One “then what” is that Russia will have to assume responsibility for it in a wider context and this will damage Russia economically, weakening it. Qui Bono? Guess who. I suspect that VP and the Kremlin are following the strategy Tony Cartalucci outlines. After all, why should the Russian people take the financial hit for sorting out the fourth reich’s actions? Russia’s best strategy is to just let the Ukraine collapse economically and politically. It can then save what’s left of Novorussia whilst demonstrating to the rest of the world the incontrovertible truth of what the fourth reich’s “spreading of democracy” really means.
Things might have been different had Novorussia followed the words of its independance referendum with the deeds of “walking the walk” as well. As it is, if the majority of Novorussian’s aren’t prepared to fight and potentially die for it, why should Russian’s? This is terribly harsh on the stupendously brave militias, but it’s their own “countrymen” who have abandoned them, how can Russia act differently? Unfortunately war rarely favours the brave, it favours the cunning, cool, calculating and far-sighted.
This may seem cold-blooded. But another drum I keep banging on is that (and you with your military experience know better than me) is that in any conflict situation, cool heads and cold hearts win more often that hot heads and hearts. The same drum dictates that there are a number of unbreakable rules in such situations : #1 You must win, losing isn’t an option, no matter what and how long it takes. #2 Never do what your enemy expects. #3 Never do what your enemy wants. As you yourself have said frequently, the fourth reich’s action in the Ukraine have been overwhelmingly oriented towards forcing a certain action by Russia. In the current situation, what is it the fourth reich most wants and expects VP and the Kremlin to do? And realistically, with hand on heart, as a result what do you think they actually should do?
There is something interesting that I read, and it is on the Pravda Website, and the News Article is Titled: Ukraine: When the Lunatics Run the Asylum at http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/29-06-2014/127918-lunatics_ukraine-0/ .
“The paper also quotes UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon as saying that “it turns out that throughout the years of its independence, Ukraine did not bother to officially register its borders as that of a sovereign state.” “For that reason, the paper suggests, “there has been no and can be no” violation of the Ukrainian border by Russia. “Under the CIS agreement, the territory of Ukraine only has administrative borders as set within the USSR, while Russia is a legal successor to the USSR,”Nezavisimaya Gazeta points out. According to the paper, it is now impossible in principle to accuse anyone of violating Ukraine’s borders because “as far as international law is concerned, the country simply does not have an officially set border.” In order to resolve this problem, the newspaper continues, Kiev must agree on border demarcation with all its neighboring states, including Russia. Although Kiev is trying to carry out unilateral demarcation, “it will be null and void from the point of view of international law,” the paper concludes.”
The News Article gives many proofs that the Illegal American backed Junta are Nazi and War Criminals, and this should not surprise us as they are Puppets of Nazi Mafia America.
Serbian translation – превод на српски:
http://ruskarec.ru/news/2014/07/07/ministarstvo_spoljnih_poslova_rf_neonacisticki_pokreti_u_ukrajini_su_za_31895.html#comment-1472680066