Foreword by the Saker: the latest article by Aram Mirzaei is truly a rare gem as it outlines an Iranian view on the conflict in Syria and on the Russian involvement in it. As I, and others, have mentioned several times, Russia and Iran are de-facto allies in this war, but unlike AngloZionist “coalitions”, that does not mean that one is subordinated to the other and that there is only one view which everybody has to parrot. The truth is Iran and Russia have always had different views and different goals and that neither side is forced to deny or hide this fact. Iran has expressed frustration with Russia and that resulted in a trip by Defense Minister Shoigu to Iran were these issues were candidly discussed. In the short term, such disagreements are, of course, frustrating, but in the long term they are, I strongly believe, an extremely healthy and beneficial phenomenon as it provides for an alternative, truly multi-polar, kind of alliance between different parties. I should add here that the idea that Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy in Lebanon is also deeply mistaken: yes, Hezbollah is supported by Iran and, yes, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is a follower of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the Iranian wisdom has always been that they fostered the emergence of an independent ally in Lebanon and not a puppet. I believe that Russia is doing the same with Iran (and with other allies, including China).
The article below presents an Iranian view on this conflict. And while I don’t fully agree with Aram’s interpretation of the Russian moves, I very much welcome a non-Russian, Iranian, interpretation of these moves. I thank Aram for his excellent contribution and I hope that he will continue to provide this blog with a different, Iranian, perspective on the Middle-East and, more globally, the worldwide resistance to the AngloZionist Empire.
——-
The Syrian conflict: An Iranian perspective on the Russian involvement and a potential Turkish cooperation
by Aram Mirzaei
Since the fall of 2015, the Syrian-Iranian-Russian coalition has been highly effective in the Syrian conflict, scoring multiple victories on the battlefield, most notably in the Latakia and Aleppo provinces where over 90% of the Latakia province was liberated from the Western-backed throatcutters.
In February, a nationwide ceasefire was negotiated by the US and Russia, a deal excluding the notorious terrorist groups Jabhat Al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. The Russians offered the other militant groups who fought side by side with these terrorist groups a chance to disassociate themselves from these groups, something which has not happened despite multiple calls for them to do so. Instead, the NATO-backed Islamist militants have exploited these ceasefires to regroup and re-arm in a bid to recapture lost territory from the Syrian Armed Forces. As a result of these ceasefires, the Syrian-Iranian-Russian momentum was halted and the terrorists who were severely battered and beaten managed to catch a breath.
Starting in April-May of 2016, the Western backed Islamist groups launched several offensives, most notably in Southern Aleppo and managed to recapture some of their lost territories, including the strategically imperative hilltop town of Al-Eiss. Following the fall of Al-Eiss, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) stationed in Southern Aleppo was rather dissatisfied with the Russian insistence for the Syrian Army and its allies not to respond to the provocations. This dissatisfaction culminated in June when the IRGC and its Lebanese allies Hezbollah threatened to withdraw from Aleppo entirely.
In order to understand the Iranian view on the Syrian conflict and why they have been dissatisfied with Russia, it is important to examine both parties’ views and ultimate goals with the ceasefire and how to continue this war.
The Russian view on the Aleppo situation
Since the implementation of the ceasefire and reconciliation deal back in February, Russia has committed much of its political prestige to upholding this agreement. In March, Russia withdrew a large part of their air force stationed in Latakia, in a sign of goodwill and to show that it was serious. Russia has since advised the Syrian Armed Forces not to launch further offensives in Aleppo and Latakia, thus freezing these combat zones. Instead, Russia has continued to launch airstrikes on the ISIL and Nusra terrorist groups, and directed the Syrian Army to focus on them rather than the US backed Islamist rebels.
This culminated by the end of March when Syrian Army units recaptured the ancient city of Palmyra, thanks in large part due to heavy Russian airstrikes and support. In early April, the Syrian Army regained the ancient Christian city of Al-Qaraytayn, also dealing a heavy blow to the ISIL terrorists. Despite numerous violations of the ceasefire by the US-backed Islamists, Russia has time and again given them a chance to stop “intermingling” with the terrorist classified Jabhat Al-Nusra, something that has not happened as of yet. Russia has well noted that the US does very little to control its proxy forces on the ground.
On June 6, a Russian official who spoke off the record in Moscow told a group of journalists, that relations with Washington are surreal. “One day we agree on something, the second day they do the opposite. When we ask them, they blame it on others. There’s difficulty in building confidence with them. Even when they commit themselves to an agreement, it takes them months to implement it.” [1]
The Russian intervention will probably not regain the same momentum it had in the first months since entering the conflict back in October 2015. It would seem that the Russians believed that their intervention and their achievements were sufficient to successfully embark on a political process in February, something that never actually happened, despite several ceasefires negotiated.
The Russian intervention has indeed failed to achieve the operational goals announced by the Russians themselves in November 2015. The Russians had stressed the imperative need to reach the Turkish-Syrian border, setting the closing of border crossings and supply routes with Turkey as a precondition to any solution. However, the Russians renounced this approach. Instead, the Russian truce has allowed armed factions, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to reorganize and rearm their ranks and rebuild most of the infrastructure destroyed by the joint Russian-Syrian operations.[2]
This situation has caused a lot of frustration among Russia’s allies, most notably Iran and Hezbollah who are highly distrustful of Washington and do not believe in cooperation with the same regime that continues to support the Al-Qaeda linked factions in Aleppo.
In an interview published May 31, 2015 in Russia’s daily Komsomolskaya Pravda, Lavrov said that the deadline given by Moscow to the “moderate rebels” (to disassociate themselves from Jabhat Al-Nusra) was about to expire, adding that: “They [the US] have now asked us for several more days before their plan, under which everyone who has not joined the ceasefire is a legitimate target, regardless of whether they are listed among the terrorists or not, swings into action. They asked for several more days in order to respond, and these several days expire this week.”[3]
Washington’s response however has always failed to address the Russian’s intentions and worries, instead continuing the “Assad must go” mantra with John Kerry making another such statement in June: “Russia needs to understand that our patience is not infinite, in fact it is very limited with whether or not Assad is going to be held accountable,” Kerry said.
Moreover, neither during Russia’s military operation nor after the ceasefire went into effect did Washington stop re-arming militant factions. The United States and its allies even supplied these factions with nearly 3,000 tons of weapons, offered them training and organized and coordinated their operations in a bid to wear out the Russians in Syria. It should be noted that this has been a clear Obama policy objective aimed to prevent any political solution as part of the United States’ desire to isolate Russia. Washington, in fact, had even asked Russia not to target Jabhat Al-Nusra’s positions, something Lavrov himself confirmed. [4]
It would seem that a feeling of bitterness and frustration has prevailed within the Syrian Army about the loss of initiative to achieve a victory, especially in Aleppo, which would change the course of the war, with some sources within the army reporting of growing discontent to Russia’s position towards the constant ceasefires. This however seems to have changed during the last month. Ever since the start of the Aleppo offensive in June by the Syrian Army, the Russian Air Force has been very active in targeting the terrorists. This successfully led to the Syrian Army capturing the Al-Castillo road in northern Aleppo, thus cutting of the last terrorist supply route into the eastern parts of the city. Maybe Lavrov has grown convinced that Washington is deceiving the Russians and that the “anti-ISIL coalition” is standing idly by as terrorists and arms flow through the Syrian-Turkish border.
The Iranian position on Aleppo and the conflict as a whole
For Iran, the ongoing war in Syria is no longer a matter of regional security. The conflict now has direct effects and implications for Iran’s national security. This perspective is clear in the daily statements coming from Tehran, the images circulating in Iranian media of martyred Iranian soldiers and high-ranking officers buried in the Iranian capital. Also the rather recent appointment of Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, as military and security coordinator of the joint cooperation group on Syria with Moscow and Damascus, tells a tale to Iran’s position on Syria.
Formerly a naval commander of the IRGC, Ali Shamkhani will report directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “who’s the man who has the final say on main issues in Syria,” an Iranian official once said. It is expected that Shamkhani will regularly share ideas and opinions with Khamenei to “contribute to the power and independence of this exalted Islamic system” [5]
Tehran supports every effort aimed at ending the Syrian conflict, with an Iranian official saying that: “In Geneva, Vienna or anywhere, seeing people sitting together around the table is the best thing. Yet sitting just to buy time doesn’t make sense. The Americans are buying time for their new president at the cost of lives in Syria. We can’t accept such hesitation amid people’s tragedies.” He added, “Our friends the Russians went to the end [of the road] with the Americans. We warned on several occasions that this is not right. We even lost several officers and observers because of Russia’s position, and now that they discovered that there’s no outcome, we are going to start a new level of cooperation.” [6]
Iran has been clear about their intentions in Syria, they aim to completely crush terrorism in Syria, something that Iranian defense minister Hossein Dehghan has made very clear. [7]
The Iranian defense minister has expressed Tehran’s determination to continue to provide military aid to the Syrian government. At the same time, he noted Iran’s concern regarding the possibility of the Islamic State gaining access to nuclear weapons. He also commented on the temporary cease-fires in Syria, especially in Aleppo, saying, “We agree to a guaranteed cease-fire that does not lead to terrorists building up their powers.”
Dehghan was referring to a May 7 attack in which Jaysh Al-Fateh (A jihadist coalition that includes Jabhat Al-Nusra among others) attacked and captured the village of Khan Touman in southern Aleppo, killing more than 13 Iranian officers and taking several more captive. More importantly, members of the Iranian Green Berets (Nohed Brigade), who were also present on this front, suffered serious losses and had to retreat from their positions. The May 7 attack was the biggest one on Iranian forces in the country so far. This sparked an outrage in the country.
After the fall of Khan Touman, several IRGC strategists and experts who had previously welcomed the Russian military presence in Syria began to express doubt and worry about Russia’s objectives in fighting alongside Iranian, Lebanese and Syrian forces. [8]
Something that also is a cause for suspicion from the Iranian view is the fact that Russia keeps avoiding to cover Iranian, Hezbollah and allied Iraqi paramilitary forces with air support whenever they come under attack in south Aleppo, instead focusing heavily on bombing the northern Aleppo countryside. It was only after the massive Jihadist advance on Khan Touman in May, when the Jihadists reached the Syrian Army positions that the Russians began to target the south Aleppo front again. This has led to speculation that Russia may have promised the Israelis not to support Hezbollah and the IRGC, two sworn enemies of Israel’s.
On June 10, Iran hosted the defense ministers of Russia and Syria at its own Defense Ministry. The stated aim was to exchange views and discuss the war on terror.
It is safe to say that Russia understands that it cannot bring about the endgame in Syria without collaborating with Tehran and Damascus. This is why Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Tehran. According to Iranian sources, Shoigu expressed regret over the Khan Touman incident and also about Iran not being informed regarding the cease-fire in Aleppo, during the meeting. Furthermore, he emphasized that Moscow is committed to collaborating with Tehran on all political and military issues, indicating more Russian support for IRGC troops stationed in South Aleppo.
Although the Russian pledge to commit itself to collaborating with Tehran to meet the tactical objectives of Iran and Hezbollah may be a short term solution, it cannot in the long term bridge the gap between Russia’s objectives and those of Iran when it comes to the Syrian war.
Moscow’s main objective in Syria is to maintain a dependent government in Damascus and to keep access to port cities in the eastern Mediterranean for its naval fleet. Iran needs Syria and access to its southern regions (Quneitra) to maintain its support for Lebanese Hezbollah. If Russia achieves its goals, it would see no reason to maintain the status quo (having Assad in power), and this is exactly what has concerned Iran ever since this game began.
When it comes to the battle of Aleppo and its surrounding area, Iran’s main interest lies in clearing the southern parts of the province and moving into the Jihadist stronghold of Idlib where two predominantly Shia towns are besieged since the spring of 2015 (Kafraya and Al-Fouaa). This endeavour would resemble the same operation as the northern Aleppo offensive of February 2016 where the Shia towns of Nubl and Al-Zahraa were liberated after a three-year long siege. Not only does this provide a strong morale boost for the Iranian and Hezbollah forces stationed there, but it also gives them a strong support from home.
Because of Russia’s insistence on Syria and its allies to not respond to the Jaysh Al-Fateh offensives, Iran and Hezbollah threatened to leave the frontlines, citing a refusal to remain sitting ducks as the Jihadists took advantage of their inactivity. This could potentially have explained both the June 10 meeting in Tehran, where Iran took the initiative to set the agenda, and the Russian comeback we have been witnessing in the Aleppo province since late June. It would further explain the final push by the Syrian Army to fully besiege the city of Aleppo, something that would not have been possible without the major boost given by the Russian eye in the sky.
The Turkish coup attempt and its broader consequences for the Syrian war
In a phone conversation on July 18, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani congratulated Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the people of Turkey for pushing back the coup attempt by members of the military.
Rouhani is reported to have said to the Turkish president, “Fortunately, the Turkish people showed their great political maturity throughout this coup and proved that bullying approaches have no place in our region.”
“Just as we struggle for our own country’s stability and security, we are duty-bound to feel responsible for the stability and security of neighbours and friendly Muslim countries as well,” Rouhani pointed out.
He also stressed that the countries in the region should work together to eradicate terrorism. Rouhani said, “This event was a test to identify your domestic and foreign friends and enemies.”
The Turkish president, for his part, appreciated Rouhani’s phone call and said “bullets and tanks may kill people but cannot destroy a nation’s ideals.”
“We are resolved to cooperate with Iran and Russia for the settlement of regional issues and increase our efforts to restore peace and stability to the region.”[9]
The coup and its aftermath is likely to affect the relationship between Erdogan and several countries both in the region and globally. One should assume that Erdogan has kept a tally of which countries condemned the coup, which kept silent and which waited to see the outcome before condemning the coup. The support of Russia and Iran, who both quickly condemned the coup and who have been Turkey’s rivals in the Syrian conflict are of utmost importance.
In contrast, the Saudi government, a supposed ally of Turkey’s, at least in Syria, congratulated Erdogan more than two days after the coup failed. [10] Some Iranian sources are also reporting that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were involved in the coup attempt, something that would not be so unthinkable considering the Saudi foreign minister Adel Al-Jubeir’s threat to Turkey a day before the coup attempt in reaction to a Turkish signaling of a policy shift towards Syria. [11]
When it comes to Washington’s stance, Erdogan is even less satisfied. Senior members of his Justice and Development Part (AKP) have even claimed that Washington may have backed the coup leaders. Speculations about US support for the coup attempt were highlighted when it became clear that the F-16 jets that the coup makers used had taken off from the Incirlik Air Base, where US forces are also stationed and that the commander of the base who is now arrested had approached US officials, seeking asylum in the US. [12] Of course, Washington denies backing this coup but the controversy has already tested Turkish-US ties with Erdogan supporters rallying outside Incirlik Air Base chanting “Death to America”. [13]
The aftermath of the coup attempt has also threatened to strain relations with the European Union too as the crackdown on the pro-coup forces are likely to push Erdogan to reinstate the death penalty, something that the EU has clearly said is unacceptable if they are to continue talks regarding Turkish EU membership.
When it comes to Syria, the Turkish discontent with Washington and the EU, mainly regarding Washington’s demands for a stronger Turkish role in the “Anti-ISIL coalition” and their cooperation with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, YPG (which Turkey regards as a terrorist organization) are matters that further cause a split between Turkey and its allies in the West.
The most significant prospect in the aftermath of the failed coup attempt is the possibility of rapprochement with Russia and Iran to settle the regional issues. The two Turkish pilots responsible for downing the Russian jet back in November 2015 are reportedly among the arrested pro-coup members, something that could help ease the ties with Moscow.
In sum, Erdogan has two options on Syria: to maintain the status quo and ride the wave of solid nationalist-conservative support, or to take further steps toward change by boosting cooperation with Russia and Iran.
Despite the differences between Russia and Iran, it would seem that they remain close allies on the battlefield while sharing different goals for Syria’s future. After all, Iran recognizes the tremendous political and military boost the Russian presence has given Syria and her allies. It is possible that Iran understands that Russia was basically forced to agree on a ceasefire, under heavy pressure from Washington. However, Iran, especially the principlist faction does not bow down to Washington’s pressure so easily, something that was very clear during the Iranian nuclear negotiations. This would perhaps disappoint the Iranian hardliners who view Russia as a far more powerful force who does not need to submit to US hegemony.
As for Turkey, an eventual policy shift would not necessarily mean a moderation in Turkey’s fierce objections to Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, on the contrary, it could move Erdogan closer to Assad as he might see the Syrian state as the only thing that could stop the Kurds from achieving a federal autonomous state, a prospect which the Syrian government has rejected.
- http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/iran-russia-syria-greater-involvement.html#ixzz4G3ezUbEZ ↑
- http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2016/06/russia-syria-united-states-war-sukhoi-storm-truce.html#ixzz4G3pSLV1I ↑
- http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2298019 ↑
- http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160605/1040804608/us-russia-nusra-front.html ↑
- http://english.khamenei.ir/news/1823/Leader-Appoints-Admiral-Shamkhani-as-His-Representative-in-National ↑
- http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/iran-russia-syria-greater-involvement.html#ixzz4G3gjmYyPt ↑
- Tasnim news, June 21, 2016 ↑
- http://www.irinn.ir/news/159489/ May 9, 2016 ↑
- http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/07/18/475808/Iran-Turkey-Rouhani-Recep-Tayyip-Erdogan-Twitter ↑
- http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/07/18/Saudi-King-Salman-congratulates-Erdogan-for-return-of-normality-in-Turkey.html ↑
- https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/saudi-fm-threatens-turkey-policy-shift-toward-syria/ ↑
- http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/18/world/middleeast/turkey-coup-erdogan.html?_r=3 ↑
- http://sputniknews.com/news/20160728/1043728040/turkey-incirlik-nato-riot-nuclear.html ↑
Starts working? jihadists threaten Russia
http://bit.ly/2ax66Sr
Who are you trying to fool here with your fairy tales about ‘ISÍS? I think they’re just AngloZionist mercenaries, Removed.stop attacking other commenters. Mod, all right?
Interesting article from Aram Mirzaei about Iran & Hezbollah’s anger with the un-Russians (AngloZionists) in and around Russia’s government. The Russian Federation, as Turkey, has a very influential 5th column within its government and the surrounding fraudulent system. It’s them who messed this up, and are doing everything they can to help the enemy (the Zionists).
You have a very fascist attitude you know, attacking others from having different opinions, at least try do it politely
You’re right, Mod. That wasn’t very correct at all, glad you moderated it actually, thanks.
Chechen leader dismisses ISIS ‘Russia jihad’ video as hollow threat, hints at Western involvement:
https://www.rt.com/politics/354286-chechen-leader-dismisses-fresh-is/
It is hard to imagine why Russia still believes anything the US State Dept. says.
A reasonably well written treatise on the situation from the Iran point of view. In my opinion, from the Russian point of view there are zero doubts as to the US end game, everything Kerry is doing is to buy time and give Brand X time to rebuild, retrain and rearm, pure and simple, and the endless mantra of ‘Assad must go’ is still fomented daily. As for Erdogan with his sudden change of heart, he is as trustworthy as a two dollar lady of easy virtue holding your wallet in a bar room brawl.
The reaction to the shoot down of the Russian Mi 8 is a case in point. It is my understanding that the area of the shoot down was informed of a de facto cease fire for humanitarian purposes and while it may be a surprise to some it is no surprise to me that the Mi was destroyed while on a humanitarian mission. The reaction from Mother has been swift and violent. The entire area is now flat according to reliable sources and anyone seen in the videos of the crew abuse, cheering the burning airframe or otherwise involved in the incident is either dead or being hunted hard. The losses among the ‘moderate’ oppositionists in the general area have been significant and that is a vast understatement.
It will be interesting to see what DoS in DC will say since they were involved in the local cease fire and knew of the air routes for the humanitarian aid being sent in. Looks to me that, like with OSCE in Novorossiya, the bad guys are informed of what is coming where and when by those who are supposedly helping you.
I understand what V V Putin and Mr. Lavrov are doing, they are adhering to law 100% for as long as possible but when Langley and Brussels screw the pooch for them then the gloves come off, as they have today around Aleppo.
Auslander
Author
Never The Last One https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK#nav-subnav
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU#nav-subnav
“Erdogan … is as trustworthy as a two dollar lady of easy virtue holding your wallet in a bar room brawl.”
So, he is significantly more trustworthy that the Anglo-Zionists.
You are arguing the difference between horizontal challenge levels of a 200 kilo rabbit as opposed to a 250 kilo rabbit.
I would say he is not, you always know what the AZ will do – whatever is cruel and harmful, with Erdogan you have no idea, one second he might sign a gas-deal that will benefit Russia and Turkey for a generation, the next moment he shoots down Russian planes and ruins it all then the next moment he apologizes and want everything to return to normal
They got the MI-8 killers? Good.
Although short of having bombers loitering nearby its not clear how they could have caught the DAESH before they scattered.
Russia is still hoping to cut some backroom deal with its “partners” like America, Europe, or Zionist Israel–oblivious to the fact that these terrorist nations will backstab you in a heartbelt.
Regarding the supposed lack of air cover, the Russian air force presence is small and it cannot be everywhere. It will be used to Russian priorities. Iran has an airforce. Why does it not send some aircraft to add to the active aircraft? They could directly liaise with Iranian/Hezbollah ground units or aid the RUAF/SAAF as appropriate. There would be the risk of losing such aircraft in battle, but presumably such a risk would be worth it if ISIS is an existential threat to Iran.
I have wondered about this as well. If they limited their use to Russian/Soviet aircraft they could perhaps get additional parts and service, upgrades. It would form a defacto alliance in this theater with a higher level of communication and cooperation. Also would give their pilots some combat experience, ground crews experience, direct air support for their troops.
For Iran this has become very near existential conflict. They have a lot to lose and much to gain if SAA lands a knockout blow in this region. Is surprising they aren’t going all-in.
Does anyone have an update on the situation in Aleppo now ?
Thank you
The fighting is progressing and SAA seems to be winning in most, if not all, areas. However, an hour ago half a dozen shells landed in civilian areas that are not the scene of fighting and it appears they have chemical warheads. Civilians have died from ‘asphyxiation’ from the chemicals.
RuAF is still very active in the Aleppo area.
Thanks Auslander.
That’s terrible to hear – using chemical warheads. But I expect the worst from these terrorists
They need to be finished off
Auslander, I am so glad you posted the almost real-time news of the “chemical attack.”
At approx 6:45 EST in USA, ABC’s evening news anchor read this: Syrian gov’t has dumped chlorine bombs on civilians in Aleppo. That’s my simple paraphrase, of course, but it sends the message that the cruel and brutal tyrant dictator has gone and “done it again” — murdering his own people. Somebody needs to get there fast and gather evidence as to just where those “chlorine cannisters” came from.
Oh, PBS says a helicopter dropped the gas bombs near Idlib close to where the Russian helicopter was shot down — no mention of the five killed soldiers. (No mention of whose helicopter.) I’ve not heard any reports of the horrid desecration of their bodies or of RuAF retaliatory actions. But then I only receive “rabbit ears TV” — the three major networks and public TV. PBS noted that victims were shown (in their video) being treated with oxygen. Video clip on ABC was no longer than a couple of seconds and looked like a “file” clip of “busted up metal,” implied to be chlorine containers.
The only reason for dumping chlorine on civilians is so it can be blamed on Dr. Assad. Well, that’s my “analysis,” anyway.
Some informations here are almost by the minute.
So far it looks like a ‘rocket attack’, don’t know for sure but perhaps Grad missile, which can be launched from a virtually home made individual launcher. Of course the terrorist media in europe/north america instantly said it was ‘barrel bombs’ dropped from ‘helicopters’ with no attribution.
Conclusion? europe/north america knew the chemical attack would be made beforehand and informed their lackies of same and blame Dr. Assad. Same old tactics which work only on the uninformed.
Auslander
Author
Never The Last One https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK#nav-subnav
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU#nav-subnav
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/field-report-jihadists-aleppo-advance-amid-bid-lift-siege-map-update/
It is difficult not to sympathize with the Iranian point of view and its frustrations. It is difficult to avoid the impression that Russia does not seem to truly recognize the essentially malignant nature of the Anglo-Zionist globalist project, and that it has allowed the West to be aggressive to the point that Russia may one day have to take the most difficult of initiatives to repel the West. In the author’s listing of the goals of the Russians, he forgot that it is in the interest of Russia to wipe out the “throat-cutters,” lest they spread dangerously into the “soft underbelly of Russia.” Russian should have been much more straightforward in repelling the Ukrainian assault on the Donbass; it should never have agreed to the foolish and useless ceasefire in Syria. It should totally support the Iranian and Hezbollah forces. Anything else is a symptom of inconsequence. Russia is far too concerned with what the West thinks of it. How has that worked out? Very badly. Russia is more the demonized state in Western propaganda than ever before.
I felt at the time that the ceasefire was a huge mistake, but many people assumed “grandmaster” Putin had something up his sleeve. I believe the Israelis have successfully courted Putin, which is why Russia 1) went for the ceasefire and 2) is failing to give adequate support to Hezbollah and Iranian detachments. The Israelis have taken the opposite stance to the Americans with Netanyahu visiting Moscow four times in the space of just over a year. This is the sort of policy the Americans would have followed a few decades ago ie. cosying up to Putin and setting Russia against China. I read somewhere that Putin took Bibi on a tour of the secret vaults of the Kremlin, which rather suggests too close a relationship between the two leaders, for my liking at least.
The Larger Context Of The Jihadi Attack On Aleppo
http://www.moonofalabama.org/
SYRIA: Erdogan U-Turn, Fact or Fiction?
http://21stcenturywire.com/2016/08/02/syria-erdogan-u-turn-fact-or-fiction/
re: Turkey possibly shifting.
pretty amazing numbers here involving military ‘retirements’ & shuffling post-coup.
Turkey Reshuffles Military after Half of Generals Fired
AUG 2
http://english.almanar.com.lb/adetails.php?eid=280080&frid=22&cid=22&fromval=1&seccatid=55
So far almost 16,000 people have been detained in a crackdown — the magnitude of which had caused international alarm.
The meeting of the Supreme Military Council (YAS) began in Ankara at around 0830 GMT, bringing together Prime Minister Binali Yildirim and the army, navy and air force commanders, along with other top figures untarnished by the coup.
Eighty-seven land army generals, 30 air force generals and 32 admirals have been dishonourably discharged over their complicity in the failed coup, a Turkish official said, confirming a government decree.
In addition, 1,099 officers and 436 junior officers have received a dishonorable discharge, according to the decree.
well the discharges might save them paying a lot of salary and pension payments, but wondring if Turkey will now go on a military recruitment drive to keep the numbers up, and always a chance that quick promotions will be of competent staff that can arise to their new level………….or be over promoted……
So… what are all these ex-mil types going to do for a living? Join DAESH? Flee to the West?
This is an informative article, personally, I do not believe that Iranian & Russian objectives in Syria are all that different, it is their strategic & tactical approach that seems to differ & present the main point of contention between them. I suspect that Russia wishes to annihilate the terrorist factions as much as Iran does, but plans to go about it in a different way. Two points I would raise here regarding some commentary about a) Iran not doing enough in Syria, & b) Russia naivete in dealings with the Anglo-Amero Empire. Re: a), Iran could intervene massively in Syria but if they did they would be falling into the same trap that the West set up for Russia in Ukraine. Iran would be accused of invading Syria on sectarian grounds, a possible split within the Syrian Arab Army could then potentially be stimulated on the part of the West by playing the sectarian card. There’s plenty more to be said about this, but this comment would be too long, so I’ll leave it there on Iran, that’s the main thrust, Iran has intervened just enough in Syria but it dare no increase its presence their too dramatically. Re: b) I’ve said this before, Russia is playing a very long game with the Anglo-Amero Empire & basically intends to win in a war of attrition. So Russia plays along & buys time for itself, time is on Russia’s side ultimately in this global contest, they need to put the inevitable clash with the US off for as long as possible, hence the Kremlin favoring Trump, even if he is a joker, it doesn’t matter, if he is mildly better than Hillary that could postpone the confrontation for a few years. If Hillary gets in the confrontation is likely to take place sooner rather than later. If Russia can gain a few years, it can grind the jihadists into dust in Syria, basically wear them out & their seemingly bottomless pit of recruitment potential, Russia will have even more weaponry to defend itself effectively, & perhaps most importantly – Russia will be supplying a lot of gas to China making it less dependent on Western markets & hence enabling a break of the Rouble from the Dollar. This is the ultimate objective for facilitating Russia to be able to act independently in the world.
The Kremlin does not favour Trump over Hilary. Neither would be closer to the mark.
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/354282-trump-clinton-putin-kremlin-election/
Of course, MSM would like to tap Russophobia against Trump.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0WQ1FA
Either candidate is ultimately going to face the Russophobe A-Z line on geopolitics. Hilary is willing to shill and spill American blood and treasure for the neocon globalist agenda.
Trump might require the hand behind the curtain to come out and slap the teleprompter-in-chief now and then, never good for appearances.
Its not clear how much power a more independent Presidential clique really wields though, since it hasn’t really happened in recent memory.
“The Americans are buying time for their new president at the cost of lives in Syria. We can’t accept such hesitation amid people’s tragedies.” He added, “Our friends the Russians went to the end [of the road] with the Americans. We warned on several occasions that this is not right. We even lost several officers and observers because of Russia’s position, and now that they discovered that there’s no outcome, we are going to start a new level of cooperation.”
It never ceases to amaze me the level of trust that Russia is showing towards Washington regarding this conflict in Syria. Iran, Hezbollah, SAA have every right not to be happy about lost initiative they had before Russian partial withdrawal and waste of time with negotiations in Geneva. There is nothing to negotiate with terrorists, they must be destroyed. The sooner the better.
The US rushed General Joseph Dunford to Turkey just before Erdogan’s planned meeting with Putin in early August. What “goodies” did he bring to counter any possible rapprochement between the two countries and deals to seal the Turkey-Syria borders?
Erdogan’s meeting with Putin will be interesting, yet I will not underestimate the power of the Anglo-American empire to maintain Turkey’s interest in the destruction of Syria. Probably nothing significant will happen…
What makes you think Dunford was bearing goodies? Poorly veiled threats are what the Empire excels in delivering.
One thing about Erdogan; he’s not one to respond kindly to threats. He lacks an ability to respect, or ability to fear, the power of the U.S. or Russia.
Its difficult to tell if Erdogan is just incredibly lucky or actually knows what he is doing.
This article sounds a bit frustrating, from a strategic point of view, about the situation in Syria and makes me want to ask some serious strategic questions:
Why do Russians try or attempt to trust the Americans ?
Why are the Russians giving the Americans the chance to buy time ?
Why are the Russians not taking advantage of the time they have and the weak US position prior to the upcoming US elections ?
Why do Russians give the rebels time to rearm and reorganize using ceasefires and then lose men, money and hardware by the hands of these rebels ?
Are the Russians afraid of committing more to the Syrian war or are they afraid of the unknown if escalating the situation, or are they happy with how things stand ?
Are the Russians simply limited in their military capabilities and budget as things stand now ?
My main question is probably…..if the Syrian Army has the momentum on several fronts, why do the Russians not go all out to speed up the process by using covert or overt means ?
There can be no doubt that Syria is now a very sensitive situation that can ignite and escalate in many directions….
On another note:
There are plans for several new US airbases in Iraqi Kurdistan (which the Iraqi Kurds are denying). Already a new airbase in Rmeilan airstrip being used by U.S. military helicopters for logistics and deliveries, and now possibly a second airbase near Kobani.
Turkey and Russia must know very well that the Kurds are being prepare to becoming the defacto Southern Flank of NATO in the Middle-East..
How long can Erdogan stay in NATO while this happens ?
Will the Americans use the Kurdish areas to destabilize the Turkish and Iranian borders ?
I think a lot of you are not understanding Russian diplomacy and the mindset of Mr. Putin, Mr. Lavrov and General Shoigu.
No one in Moskau wants a war but it has been made very clear that an attack on any Russian territory, and that includes Krimea and Sevastopol, will be answered with instant and overwhelming force.
That being said, so far Mr. Putin, Mr. Lavrov and General Shoigu seem to be generally accomplishing their goals through diplomacy. This is never a bad thing and while one can read anything one wants in the tea leaves so far there is no war in Russia.
Syria is to a great extent being fought out with a probable victory on the part of Dr. Assad and his legal government regardless of four years of continuous attacks on the sovereign state of Syria by US, EU and Nato plus others.
Krimea and Sevastopol are comfortably ensconced in Russia and peace reigns on this island.
Donbas, IOW Novorossiya, is stabilized to an extent. The orcs know they can not win against NAF and the continuous bombardments and small unit attacks are simply to goad Russia in to stepping in and fixing things. This is not needed, Novorossiya Armed Forces are fully capable of taking care of themselves although they are constrained a great deal by their honoring of most of the Minsk 2 agreements, operative term being ‘most’. Two weeks ago they got tired of getting shot at and OSCE be damned they do now shoot back at times, confirmed reluctantly by OSCE.
The sanctions applied by US, europe, Australia and Japan were a pain in the tail but not earth shattering. It was with amusement that I read in the fall of ’14, right at harvest time, the screams of europe when Mr. Putin applied counter sanctions. You know the sanctions hurt europe badly because to this day europe is still squeaking about them. Just last week some French dignitary, it might have been Golland, said he was ready to recommend to Brussels a ‘revisitation’ of the sanctions regime…..as long as Russia met the criteria for such an action and dropped the ‘illegal’ sanctions applied to europe and as an added goody Russia was to return Krimu and Sevastopol to the orcs. He don’t know Russia, he don’t know Krimu and he really don’t know Sevastopol if he thinks any one of the three will back down from him.
Basically it looks to me like our little troika of Mr. Putin, Mr. Lavrov and General Shoigu are doing rather well so far. Of course this can change overnight but perhaps some of you can enlighten me as to what should be done other than what the troika has been doing. I’m interested to hear your ideas.
Auslander
Author
Never The Last Onehttps://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK#nav-subnav
An Incident On Simonkahttps://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU#nav-subnav
2 names mentioned are in north Syria Kurdistan, as well as the 5 planned north Iraq Kurdistan.
According to a military source from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the US is allegedly constructing two military airbases in the Syrian Kurdistan to increase its presence and step up military support for the Syrian Kurdish forces.
The source said most of the work on a runway in the oil town of Rmeilan in al-Hasakah province was complete while a new air base southeast of Kobani, straddling the Turkish border, was being constructed with scores of US experts and technicians involved in the project.
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/03/10/us-two-military-bases-under-construction-in-syria.html
So what you are saying is United States of America is building two airbases in the sovereign country of Syria without the permission of the legally elected government of that sovereign country. Perhaps no one sees a slight problem with these acts, if the acts are true?
Auslander
Author
Never The Last One https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK#nav-subnav
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU#nav-subnav
Harry, I think your questions are excellent; while I appreciate Zoolander’s rhetoric, it doesn’t answer them.
Saker, while this will call for speculation, you’ve commented, I recall, on the stupidity of Saddam Hussein to allow the Americans months to build up for “Desert Storm.” I’m no military analyst, but I don’t understand why the Russians made things worse for themselves. Yes, there are few jets but why not bomb or interdict the thousands of new fighters, the tons of munitions, etc.
Saker, can you specualte on:
“Why do Russians try or attempt to trust the Americans?
“Why are the Russians giving the Americans the chance to buy time?
“Why are the Russians not taking advantage of the time they have and the weak US position prior to the upcoming US elections?
“Why do Russians give the rebels time to rearm and reorganize using ceasefires and then lose men, money and hardware by the hands of these rebels?”
I think that the following can shed some light on the intricacies of the Syrian conflict:
“In Turkey, democratic transparency defeats esoterism.The Turkish nation, with all its elements, is united against the insidious coup attempt”, By Yasin Aktay
(AK party member of the parliament and head of the Turkish Group of Inter-Parliamentarian Union.)
‘On July 4, a criminal judge in Turkey, Ilhan Karagoz – also known as one of the disciples of Fethullah Gulen in the judiciary – issued a court decision stating that Gulen was “The Mahdi”.
The Mahdi is the name given to a holy leader who, according to some Muslims, will be sent by God to guide humanity, calling them to follow Islam before the end of the world.
Karagoz incorporated himself in this fiction by designating himself as the so-called harbinger of Mahdi, as is written in some religious narratives.
Moreover, he issued a call for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, together with all cabinet and parliamentary members, hundreds of mayors, journalists and businessmen, to be taken into custody.’
@http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/07/turkey-democratic-transparency-defeats-esoterism-160731140355979.html
There is no secret that the minds of all fighters are filled with the apocalyptic expectations of the fight between the Dajjal and the Mahdi. I believe that we should not pass over the fact that Iran and Hezbollah are imbued with the same mythology. Turkey was pushed to join the fray, but managed to resist and to extricate herself in time. Russia’s intervention does not operate along these lines. She is not engaged either in a ‘Semilunade’ to liberate Al-Quds from the Anglo-Zionists, or in helping Israel’s dreams of aggrandizement, but in enforcing the principles of UNO and that means the respect of the territorial status quo existing on the ground. Russia expressed her intention to uphold the rights of Christians and get sure guarantees from the Islamics. Islam in whatever form, remains by its core ideology, potentially a threat to Christians and to Russia.
I don’t see why Russia would even sit down at the same table as the Anglo-Zionists and their Jihadi Proxies.. does Russia believe in negotiating with terrorists?! There is nothing to be gained from further cease fires, what is now needed is a rutheless campaign to push the Takfiris into the desert and bomb them to pieces.
Putin needs to realise that the US will never view him and Russians as equals, because the US does not view itself as equal to anybody. It even describes itself as exceptional, and thereby expects Russia to bow down and submit.
Putin knows how powerful Russia is compared to others and that the US actually fears it, so why not leverage that power and create irreversible facts on the ground in Syria? The US does not believe in the rule of law except when it is convenient, so there is no point negotiating anything with them because it is just a ruse to buy time for its terrorists.
One must discard the trope that Putin suffers because his ‘desire to be viewed as an equal by the US’. This is just an illusion of the US. For sure, Putin despises that bunch of retards on the way to total infantilization. As it becomes increasingly obvious, he created irreversible facts on the ground.
Russia and China both have the problem of pro-Western ‘5th columnists’, who are really just comprador opportunists willing to enrich themselves enabling and empowering our worst people by selling out their countries.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/washingtons-fifth-columns-inside-russia-and-china/5466892
Its not likely that Putin needs any convincing about the perfidy of the West.
Latest meme floated, dunno why it took so long maybe desperation & misdirection by msm throwing everything out there running around with their latest rogue wild ass hair known as the Aleppo cauldron, but here it is.
AUG3
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman on Wednesday denied the allegation made by his British counterpart that Tehran sends arms to Yemen.
Bahram Qassemi dismissed the accusation as an “outright lie”, stressing that Iran’s principled policy is pursuing regional stability and security.
http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/08/03/1148070/iran-dismisses-allegation-of-arms-delivery-to-yemen
There are viewpoints here that are new to me… and I do not have enough data to agree or disagree… but on two point I decidedly think there is a misjudgement 1. Reason why Russia is in this war… is not for access to the Mediterranean… but so definitely for Russia’s own security as many of the terrorists are Russian and if not eradicated will come “home to roost”…. and 2. on Assad Russia has again and again stated the Syrian people must decide not Russia… Finally I have studied closely how President Putin is “operating” what he does and how he does it…. I have deep respect for his ability to do the right thing at the right time – Both President Putin and his team as well as the leaders in Iran have been blessed with wisdom … and they will win – a victory that will be good for all mankind.
Mr. Aram Mirzaei, thanks for this sincere analysis on the view from IRGC and Hezbollah on the Russian position in the Syrian conflict.
I must admit feeling the same that IRGC and Hezbollah, and that, even being an ordinary citizen currently living on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea and not risking anything, so can understand well the dissapointment of all those men fighting so hard and dying in the front line.
Neither I can understand persistence in negotiating with the current US administration when has always shown dishonest and treacherous as could be.
If the world was as it should be, everyone who has supported, trained, financed and armed terrorism in Syria ( and here also enters the current Israeli government, well, really, we would Have to jail half of the middlle East….) and all those who have fought in their ranks ( the so-called moderate rebels, what a joke! ), should be jailed for a very long period of time, and so people of good will may have a chance. We have to see the impunity enjoyed by those signing their names in those lists of the ceasefire, which is simply unfair and immoral, and to ordinary mortals, reminds us when they catch the rich evading taxes and, if admits to pay a fine, nothing happens, but over a citizen who stopped paying one euro tax the full weight of the law falls, even if this involves ruinning his life forever.
There is no justice in the world and we do little for it to be.
I understand that Russia must find its interest and that of its citizens, and, although there are things hard to understand, someone has to maintain a dialogue stance, because, obviously, the people we are dealing with, in case of refusing to negotiate and do with them what should be done, this would mean total war and, mlost probably this may be the last, because it turns out that they have powerful armies and weapons of mass destruction ( yes, they do). Then, you never know in a war what the outcome will be, and so the victory is not granted, also many more people will die, and there will be widespread hunger and misery, if there is something/someone left, and then, also happens that in those countries live many innocent people….
That is why, and excuse me if you are fighting with the Iranian Armed Forces and I hope they could forgive me the brothers of Hezbollah, but if something should be to make of this conflict is that there will come a time that you also will have to sit down and negotiate with Israel . Yes, I know that your stomach stirs, and that this may not be possible until within a few generations, but simply, they are already there established for decades now, which, for sure, was a huge mistake and was committed and it is committing an atrocity and genocide against the Palestinians, but I really think there is no turning back. Of course, Israel must stop harassing and assassinating people and stealing land, return all occupied territories since day 1 and compensate the victims, as they have been indemnified by Germany, and all the perpetrators should be prosecuted and banned from holding public office.
The solution could be a single state, if people are able to accept that there could be a Palestinian majority in parliament with a new constitution that guarantee the rights of all.
If not, two states, but I think it would be much more advantageous one state for everyone to enjoy all the territory and all resources, although right now sounds impossible.
Very interesting article – kudos to Saker for publishing this.
This is the first time I’ve seen the view expressed (final para.) that Turkey should naturally support Syrian state integrity – even if it means Assad stays – i.e. to resist US-backed creation of a Kurdish state. I’ve long held this view; that despite Assad’s loathsomeness, Turkish interests are very much aligned with Russia’s in seeking to retain the integrity of the Syrian state. The rate at which the US is building bases on Kurdish-held Syrian territory clearly indicates their intent to – at the very least – hedge their bets re Turkey as an ally. A new state of Rojava (Syrian Kurdistan) would allow Incirlik to be moved lock stock and nukes to a nearby home, in the event that US-Turkish relations really went south.
Erdogan, having now witnessed the delayed support from various NATO ‘allies’ post-coup, perhaps now finally realises he is better off in Syria with the Russo-Iranian coalition.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mx_5-waiun0
… Well, but is the Russian-Iranian alliance better off with Erdogan? Turkey, OK, but Erdogan as an ally…
The guy demands loyalty but his loyalty to others, seems to turn on a dime at the slightest shifting of the geoplitical winds according to their immediate utility to Erdogan.
The analysis on Russia, to me, based on watching from afar of course but trying to understand why Russia would allow Israel to attack Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria and constant Russian particpation in ceasfires at the moment before the rebels were destroyed again why Russia played such moves. My own analysis closely aligns with this author’s and one I intimated to the Saker in a private email. So in the foreword, the Saker states that he doesn’t completely agree with author as it regards the Russians motives. Not to cast aspersions towards the Russians but I would like to know what the hell are they thinking or were thinking when they made these bone-headed decisions. So Saker, since you don’t completely agree with this authors interpretation of the Russian’s actions in the cases he cites, what exactly don’t you agree with and why thereby helping us to understand what clearly looks like Russian lapses in judgment. I haven’t read any of the comments below in case someone asked the question and you answered. Cheers
I like to see saker’s view in this issue as well…
Putin plays for time well. The longer the time, the more options he has. The longer the time, the better some of them start to become and more effective besides. The longer the time, the more people start to understand who is telling truth versus who is not telling truth. The longer the time, the more the actions of the participants can be weighed against their stated principles. The longer the time, the weaker opponents become. The longer the time, the stronger Putin’s position becomes.
Acting to win an immediate battle while setting oneself up to loose a war is quite rash. It is clearly counter productive. It is definitely counter productive if it is a big war you seek to avoid.
In war he who has the strongest economy will, in the long run, generally win. Best to limit military engagements and war so as to allow your enemy to run hither and about bleeding his treasure and life-blood away. Eventually he’ll collapse or at the least loose the will to fight on.
A story to remember. Many years ago there was a famous boxer. He was to fight for the world heavyweight title against another fighter- one who was bigger, more powerful, stronger and technically superior in the business of destroying opponents with his fists. What could he do? He knew that the chances were good that were he to stand toe to toe and box this man, he’d likely loose. At some point a counter-punch would get through to stun him. That would slow him down and make him unable to respond quickly enough against further blows. He would not be able to defend himself from the furious rain of punches that would be precisely aimed at his head. Then, as he staggered under the power of the massive hits, he’d eventually find his hands no longer answering quick enough to defend his vulnerable head, neck and body, his guard would drop, he would be hurt and it would be but a short time before the inevitable knock-out blow would fall. Knock-out! Inevitability.
What could he do? The boxer thought about it hard and long. He analysed his opponent most carefully. He came up with a strategy. It was a difficult one. He knew how hard it would be. He understood far more than most what he’d have to sustain. But he knew it would allow him to prevail in his goal. So, when he went to the ring and the fight began, he did not fight toe to toe. He did not attempt to out-box the stronger fighter. He closed up his defenses and allowed the other man to hit and hit and hit. All sorts of massive punches were thrown. Few penetrated the defense. Those that did were singular and, while painful to endure, were not sufficient to incapacitate the boxer. He remained lucid and able. Then, when he sensed the other was beginning to tire, frustrated at the lack of visible result from a huge expenditure of energy, beginning to flag in ability to exert effort, only then did the boxer make a response. When he sensed first frustration and then desperation on the part of the stronger fighter he asked of him, “Is that all you’ve got?” The other man knew at that moment that it was indeed all he had. His tank was empty. He was done.
In the next round the great boxer came out from his corner and started to fight. He opened up on his opponent and boxed. The other was tired and was unable to respond. He had nothing left. The boxer went on and was able to claim a brave victory.
Are you able to identify who the boxer was and who his opponent was? It is a famous story. It really happened like this.
Anyway, the moral of that story is to understand your competitor and never ever compete with him head on where he holds advantage. Leave him to puff himself out. Who knows, you may not even have to act. He may well lose heart and quit or he may even fall over from exhaustion!
Consider this analogy before calling for impossible things.
Siotu
Syria and Ukraine are stepping stones to Russia. Russia knows the US plans to attack Russia and is trying to stall. The US Qatar and Saudi Arabia are spending vast amounts of money in Syria.
SA and Qatar have most of their money in the US, so it draws money out of the US.
The only way to defeat the US without killing billions, is to destroy the US economy.
I know this is hard for those who die at the hands of the American irregular army, but Russia is understandably more concerned about the US killing Russians than Syrians or Iranians.
Russia is also suffering under the NATO blockade, and needs to keep its forces ready to stop a US attack against Russia. Putin will not allow the US to turn Russia into Syria Libya etc.
Also it would be possible for Iran to commit a much larger force to Syria, perhaps with heavy weapons.
Money is the primary weapon of war, bankrupt America and victory is assured. The best thing Iran could do to win in Syria, is to boost production of cheap oil, that is Americas Achilles heel.
I really feel for the Syrian people, and the peoples of all the other countries the US has destroyed.
If the Russia/China plan succeeds in destroying Americas ability to wage war, billions of lives will be saved.
… Well, but is the Russian-Iranian alliance better off with Erdogan? Turkey, OK, but Erdogan as an ally…
The guy demands loyalty but his loyalty to others, seems to turn on a dime at the slightest shifting of the geoplitical winds according to their immediate utility to Erdogan
https://avinpack.com/
“One day we agree on something, the second day they do the opposite. When we ask them, they blame it on others. There’s difficulty in building confidence with them. Even when they commit themselves to an agreement, it takes them months to implement it.”
I’m reading this while sitting in the American West. It seems like all around me the spirits of 19th century American Indians chiefs are saying …. “Yep, that sounds familiar. Seems like the Great White Chief in Washington hasn’t changed a bit. Still speaks with forked tongue.”
Insightful article thanks.
Putin gets full-spectrum results, though. Merely defeating the DAESH and their sponsors militarily, immediately, would not be as effective in the long term as defeating them politically as well. The delays weren’t foot-dragging indecision or naivete.
While there’s not much hope of winning over the Anglo-Zionist NATO helots anyway, it can’t be said the Russians haven’t exhausted every reasonable attempt at a political solution. They’ve sounded out the intentions and true powers of their opponents. In the meantime, the U.S. has personified perfidy at almost every turn.
The Russians haven’t made hollow moral victories; moral victories are backed by retained gains on the ground, genuinely liberated civilians, limited friendly casualties, and very dead terrorists.
Its also been reported that Tehran didn’t send as many troops into Syria as expected, in part because Iran hoped to ease U.S.-Iranian tensions and normalize relations; a very necessary thing.
However, lack of manpower limits what gains can practically be held by the SAA/ Hezbollah/ Iranian troops, especially in Turkish border areas.
While Turkey may be less sympathetic to non-Turk DAESH now, there was always the problem of DAESH reinforcements pouring in from Turkey. DAESH reinforcements from Turkey are too close to easily interdict with air power. SAA advances close to the border have always suffered from being unable to finish a border-hopping opponent that could always cross back in greater, refreshed numbers.
Insightful article indeed. Thanks.
I’m inclined to share Aram Mirzaei’s point of view.
I also found this article today, which is hopeful: Tehran hopes brainstorming with Russia, Turkey will end Syrian impasse.
http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/405371/Tehran-hopes-brainstorming-with-Russia-Turkey-will-end-Syrian