John Mearsheimer just published a piece in Foreign Affairs entitled “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault – The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin“. It is a typical “establishment” piece in style and assumptions – along with some rather misleading statements about the war in Georgia – but I still recommend that you read it. Here is the interesting excerpt:
There is a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, however — although it would require the West to think about the country in a fundamentally new way. The United States and its allies should abandon their plan to westernize Ukraine and instead aim to make it a neutral buffer between NATO and Russia, akin to Austria’s position during the Cold War. Western leaders should acknowledge that Ukraine matters so much to Putin that they cannot support an anti-Russian regime there. This would not mean that a future Ukrainian government would have to be pro-Russian or anti-NATO. On the contrary, the goal should be a sovereign Ukraine that falls in neither the Russian nor the Western camp.
To achieve this end, the United States and its allies should publicly rule out NATO’s expansion into both Georgia and Ukraine. The West should also help fashion an economic rescue plan for Ukraine funded jointly by the EU, the International Monetary Fund, Russia, and the United States — a proposal that Moscow should welcome, given its interest in having a prosperous and stable Ukraine on its western flank. And the West should considerably limit its social-engineering efforts inside Ukraine. It is time to put an end to Western support for another Orange Revolution. Nevertheless, U.S. and European leaders should encourage Ukraine to respect minority rights, especially the language rights of its Russian speakers.
Some may argue that changing policy toward Ukraine at this late date would seriously damage U.S. credibility around the world. There would undoubtedly be certain costs, but the costs of continuing a misguided strategy would be much greater. Furthermore, other countries are likely to respect a state that learns from its mistakes and ultimately devises a policy that deals effectively with the problem at hand. That option is clearly open to the United States.
Now, I have no illusion about Mearsheimer, he is spokesman for what I call the “old Anglo guard”, the folks who have been gradually, if partially, displaced by the Neocons, who then got behind Obama, only to be re-displaced when the Neocons skillfully took Obama under their control. In other words, Mearsheimer only speaks for the defeated and resentful part of the establishment, but a still powerful and influential one. His article could also serve as a kind of a “feeler” with the rest of the US “deep state” to see what reactions it triggers.
What do you think – does the publication of this article mean that some kind of the beginning of a realization that the US needs to revise it’s Ukrainian policy?
What do you think?
The Saker
Oh, I almost forgot: Mr. Nora brought that Mike Whitney piece to my attention yesterday:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article39446.htm
Not only does it look like Iran may in fact have knifed Putin in the back, pipeline-wise, the news gets even worse, bc Ukraine’s Rada finally passed a bill permitting foreign investors (now really, guess who!) to lease up to 49% of Ukraine’s transit pipelines and underground gas storage facilities.
And this may have been the major goal all along, bc we now have control over Russian gas going to Europe. Just think about that for a minute. Holy Moly.
Russia is one of the few countries that has the means to be almost completely self-sufficient, perhaps more so than any other. It should strive to utilize this capability. Revamp your industry. Your technology. Reduce dependency on imports as much as possible. Eliminate dependence on imports of anything that could not be easily replaced from another exporter, or produced at home.
It should expect that the hegemon will continue to work relentlessly to prevent Russia from remaining an independent nation. It will work constantly to break her up, to create strife within, enemies without.
It will work to destroy her distinct culture and sense of national identity as a pre-requisite for those other destructions.
It needs alert leaders of the caliber of Putin to be aware of these things and prevent them. If it falls into the hands of another imbecilic lout like Yeltsin, it may not survive it.
Don’t count on the fact that the hegemon is finished. It may still have batteries for quite a while, and perhaps we have not yet seen the depths of wickedness and machination to which it can sink.
While it might not herald any big change any time soon, am I the only person glad to see at least ONE freaking article that makes some sense, doesn’t bash Adolf V Putin, criticizes US foreign policy, and does so in MSM, even if it’s not the NY Times? I’m likely about as pessimistic as anyone about the chaos our dear A-Z neoliberal/neocon elite psychos are creating in this world twelve crises at a time, but this to me represents a small glimmer of hope that not all is lost quite yet. So maybe I’m actually not as pessimistic, and while I’m not calling this piece a brilliant and brutally honest expo-zay, or intellectual tour de force sure to turn the tide, if nothing else at least a few Americans will see a different take on Ukraine, on Russia- and that’s not a bad thing. Not at all. It’s a little bit frightening to me how negative the reaction has been, from a lot of you I respect greatly. It’s not like I disagree in principal with anyone in particular and my answer to the question is the same as everyone else’s, I would just hope a few of you might see the silver lining here, as slightly gray and exceedingly thin as that lining is.
@ Brian
Ft.com analysis today support your points 1,2,3:
The analysis is a must read.
Ukraine economy: Broken down http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/63e0a202-26fb-11e4-a46a-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3AyQM3hPU
The country’s finances have worsened, raising pressure on the International Monetary Fund (subscription/Register Wall)
Plumes of smoke darken the sky above a sunflower seed crushing factory outside Donetsk, the largest stronghold of the Russian-backed separatists surrounded by Ukraine’s advancing army. [.]
The $80m plant, opened in 2000 by Cargill, was one of the first big greenfield investments into independent Ukraine, a symbol of a new era of more open markets and future prosperity. It was abandoned by the US agriculture group’s employees after being stormed by pro-Russian gunmen. Now ablaze, it is testament to the vast damage done to a war-torn and bureaucracy-choked economy slipping deeper into recession.
While the international focus in recent months has been on the armed strife in eastern Ukraine and the geopolitical stand-off with Moscow, another dilemma is looming large for Kiev and its western backers: Ukraine’s economy is in tatters .
At best, the International Monetary Fund and other western backers are likely to have to step in with more loans to help the government staunch its fiscal deficit. At worst, the $17bn IMF programme signed in April could fall apart, possibly forcing the country to default and restructure its debts.
Additional key excerpts:
*The latest data indicate that the Ukrainian economy contracted almost 5 per cent year-on-year by the middle of the year.
*Ukrainian officials do not expect agriculture – previously a pivotal engine of growth – to continue to compensate for the struggling eastern steel and machinery sectors as it has in recent years. “Thanks personally to [Vladimir] Putin, we lost 15 per cent of the gross harvest,” Arseniy Yatseniuk, the prime minister, said this week.
*To add to the worries, the Ukrainian currency is endangering the banking sector. The IMF’s own risk assessment warns that if the hryvnia falls to UAH12.5 to the dollar then the stresses on bank balance sheets would require a bailout of at least 5 per cent of GDP. The hryvnia is now even weaker, at about UAH13.
*Other complications are looming. One $3bn Ukrainian bond is owed to Russia as part of a support package for the previous pro-Moscow government of Viktor Yanukovich. Russia structured the loan as a normal eurobond with a significant tweak. If Ukraine’s debt-to-GDP goes above 60 per cent, as is now inevitable, Moscow can demand immediate repayment. Because of cross-default provisions, Kiev cannot renege on this bond in isolation, handing Mr Putin a potent economic weapon against the country.
*Ukraine’s greatest economic vulnerability is its energy consumption. Russia’s Gazprom, which provides more than half the country’s gas, severed supplies in June, writes Christian Oliver. Ukrainians face a bitter winter unless the EU can break a deadlock between Moscow and Kiev to agree a fair price.
Günther Oettinger, EU energy commissioner, is due to attend a meeting between the Russians and Ukrainians in Minsk on August 26, giving a chance to revive negotiations.
One obstacle has been Ukraine’s demand that Russia make payments for the loss of Chernomorneftegaz, the Black Sea energy company with 2.2bn cubic metres of gas reserves seized when Russia invaded Crimea.
(emphasis mine)
~ ~ ~ ~
See another confirming analysis here. . As Mike Shedlock sees it Ukraine Interest Rates Soars to 17.5% As External Debt Cannot be Repaid
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46971.html
[.]Ukraine’s external debt as valued in US dollars has risen from under $40 billion in 2005 to nearly $140 billion today. Yet, I hear no mainstream media reporting on how Ukraine is supposed to pay this back. Here’s a hint. It can’t. And that is why interest rates are totally out of control,[.]
~ ~ ~ ~
Good luck with that.
What JohnM said…I can only add that the constant repetition of fraudulent claims of the Ukies having overrun the NAF and driven them into downtown Donetsk and Lugansk (which are still being shelled daily and under partial but not full encirclement) is a kind of none too subtle hint to Kiev – HEY don’t make liars out of our presstitutes going to bat for you all. Not that Kiev really cares but Porky needed a victory for Ukrainian Independence Day and he isn’t going to get it with the disaster for Donbass Battalion at Ilovaisk now in full NAF hands and Aidar next in line for the meatgrinder south of Lugansk.
“Robert Snefjella said…
Mearsheimer’s impossible task was to write something remotely sensible, to find a bit of daylight, pertaining to ‘Western’ (whatever that is) policy regarding Ukraine and Russia, while tangled in, and subservient to, the ‘West’s’ web of lies and clichés and hypocritical and pompous vainglorious suppositions. “
I think anyone who sits down to write a big piece on Ukraine will soon realise how big the mistakes of he Western powers have been and how disastrous the Junta is and could be. It is an inevitable process when so many people who are so wrong do a bit of thinking.
The West will abandon the Ukrainian leadership. Soon. What is announced as meetings now are more likely to be “messages confirmed in person”
@ 20 August, 2014 22:03
1 of 2
Agree with you about Infowars. I was one of those people who used to think Alex Jones and all 9/11 ‘truthers’ were nuts, until I realized even as one who accepted the more or less official version of events nothing happened to the nation — Saudi Arabia — that produced 15 of the 19 hijackers. It’s hardly ‘trutherism’ to ask what is the relationship between people like Cheney and the Saudis and Pakistan’s ISI that let ‘Osama Bin Laden’ ‘live’ under the noses of their Pakistani West Point for years — again if you believe the official story, which is full of holes.
In fact the Saudis have been ‘winning’ or were for a while along with their Qatari rivals with elements of the US Deep State led by alleged Saudi asset CIA Director John Brennan giving KSA crate blanche from 2007 on (as reported by Seymour Hersh) to fund all the radicals and jihadist scum they pleased from Libya to Syria.
Only when the Qataris went too far for their Saudi neighbors and f—ed up Egypt following Mubarak’s overthrow did KSA pull back their funding for the Syria jihadists somewhat. The false flag attack at East Gouta was Prince Bandar’s last desperate throw. Bandar being forced into permanent retirement on pain of death after his alleged wounding by a Shi’a suicide bomber funded by the Syrians in 2013 was the last hurrah.
Now Saudi Arabia is waking up to the fact that the petrodollar system it has been an integral part of since Nixon fixed it in the early 70s is doomed. The Saudis are basically turning toward China and the Eurasian trade zone as the Kingdom’s only hope for non-oil growth and stability with its large restive Shi’a population in the future. China according to Dr. Jim Willie has told the Saudis and Iranians to play nice and the KSA hardliners who were furious with Obama for trying to cut a deal with Iran over Iraq and Kurdistan are gradually being sidelined.
Realizations of the US elites: Mearsheimer is the man who wrote a book about international lying in which he said ” lie selectively and well and be good at what you do.” Perhaps this is a gesture to open the door a crack for when the Ukraine totally fails and Italy goes down the tubes due to the Russian response to a clumsily lead assault on its economy. I think they are hedging their bets and showing their belly for when Putin makes a face saving compromise for them. He will have to stay always vigilant, though, if he does do this down the road.
2 of 2
It is as they say a very complex game of three and four dimensional chess.
Our Shi’a friend Mohammed may exaggerate when he says Obama and Putin are ‘in cahoots’. But he is not mistaken to say that there is a confluence of interests, especially now with Syria being pushed to the back burner and the banksters’/’Qatar to EU pipeline to screw Gazprom’ dreamers desperate efforts to intervene there using ISIS as a pretext exposed.
President Nobel Peace Prize Winner after all can only afford to put so many US boots back on the ground in Iraq and already balked at bombing Assad to the fury of the neocons and R2P neolibs, who moved on immediately to destabilizing Ukraine and fighting Putin to the last Ukrainian in revenge. Obama, to the extent that he has any will of his own and is not just a golf playinig teleprompter reading puppet for the banksters, has never been that interested in foreign policy. Obama sees foreign policy as a distraction from his fundamental task, which is the ‘transformation of America’ into a completely socialist one party state where the Democrats are enthroned forever like the old PRI in Mexico over an impoverished and government-dependent population.
However it remains to be seen between all the different factions — Obama and his loyalists like Valerie Jarrett who move some of the US media, the Deep State spoooks and military who don’t want all out war but a new Cold War with Russia, and the globalist psychopaths who would welcome a ‘limited’ WW3 or 4 escalating into a ‘limited’ nuclear exchange — prevail.
Putin is certainly going to keep doing what he’s doing — using the NAF and the looming gas and coal shortages to bleed Ukraine out economically and militarily until Maidan 3.0 erupts this winter and TransCarpathia takes up arms in open revolt and shoots a lot of the Right Sector Nazis from Galicia using Hungarian guns.
By ‘neo-cons’ one means the Jews and their Sabbat Goyim ‘Goy Toys’. They didn’t ‘take over’ Obama, they controlled him from the very beginning. If you want to read the gory details just look up ‘Obama and the Jews’, from the Chicago Jewish News, October 24, 2008, by Pauline Yearwood, and see why Abner Mikvah, the Congressman, judge and Clinton apparatchik declared Obama the ‘First Jewish President of the USA’.
Mearsheimer and Walt got into trouble a few years back by breaking an absolute taboo of US political discourse-contemplating the control of the Jewish Lobby of US politics. It probably is immensely annoying for Gentile US Establishment figures to know that they must bow down before Jews, that the great, global Empire that they spent so much blood and wealth forging has been taken over by a tiny, infinitely arrogant and demanding minority whose prime loyalty is to a rabid, racist, fascist terror-state bent on destroying itself and the world, if necessary. Of course Mearsheimer is not so honest in acknowledging the USA’s prime motivation in attacking Russia (and China)-to forge a global Empire of unquestioning obedience (like the Euro scum)before the Real Evil Empire collapses under that inequality and indebtedness that have grown almost in lock-step with the growth of Jewish dominance and control in politics, the MSM and, crucially, in finance.
Nora, @ 20 August, 2014 22:56
You’re right of course. There are many factions dogfighting under the carpet in Washington, just as Putin must deal with ‘the 5th column’ of oligarchs and chinovniks that Fedorov correctly notes have their gonads in a vise due to children, houses and bank accounts from Londongrad to Colorado. However Putin has been trying to ‘de-offshore’ the oligarchs and make them less dependent on Wall Street/City of London capital since the 2008 krizis, and the continued ability of the Russian economy to survive the EU’s slow motion collapse and the effects of Western sanctions is a testament to those efforts.
Mearsheimer represents an old school of realism that was familiar to Kissinger (that seemingly ageless vampire consigliere to Nixon and the Rockefellers), Baker and the others Saker has some grudging respect for because although they winked and nodded at bloody coups and genocide (Chile, the bloody birth of Bangledesh) they were also realists who could negotiate coldly with the Soviets and understood the limits of American power in the nuclear age. They lacked the amateurishness and reliance on ‘social media’ intel that marks the current crew including Kerry, Nuland, Harf, Saki, aka the former State Department that has now become the War Department in coordination with NATO SACEUR Gen. Breedlove, who I imagine is not the most beloved commander among the Joint Chiefs or their staffs.
My guess is, the Pentagon/DIA/NSA know the extent of the Ukie military disasters and combat deaths/woundings in the East. The CIA knows how horrible the Ukie economy is going to get and just how short their thermal power plants are on coal and gas with the underground storage tanks tapped out — since Kholomoisky and other psychopathic oligarchs could hardly be trusted not to sell all the gas off to Germany and let Ukraine’s poor babushkas freeze to death this winter. Putting those two and two together, it’s natural that these factions would push for a deal while the State Dept. persists in fantasies that IMF loans will allow Ukraine to buy enough reverse flow gas from Slovakia and Australian coal (there’s Tony Abbott’s payoff for his MH17 hysterics) to get by this winter. The State Dept. elites and neocons are of course delusional. Maidan 3.0 is unstoppable whether the ‘volunteer battalions’ prevail or not. In fact Kholomoisky and Porkyshenko might be secretly rooting for Aidar, Azov and Donbass to all die in urban combat lest they come back armed to Dnetropetrovsk and Kiev this winter. In reading the Vice account of ‘Franko’ the American’s death, I was struck by how the Donbass commanders claimed the other Ukie units that were supposed to attack in concert hung them out to dry in Ilovaisk — as if they were meant to die there.
As negative as this FT article is with regard to the Ukraine economy, its choice of words hints that the Russians will ultimately be blamed (for this and every other negative event that may take place in the Ukraine for the next 40 years):
“It was abandoned by the US agriculture group’s employees after being stormed by pro-Russian gunmen. Now ablaze,…”.
This is a way the money/deep state hedges the bet.
When they clearly loose (and they will) too much financially, economically, politically, or militarily, then they will brand this kind of articles as THEIR initiative and Putin must thank them for that, and that’s why their Obam deserves the Nobel Price, etc… you already khow the music!
http://m.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/08/05/transcarpathian-gambut.html
If Kiev sends thugs in to Transcarpathia that will antagonize Hungary and Romania. A second front would do wonders
1. Relieve Donbass
2. Sow discontent among EU cohesion
He doesn’t mention ANYTHING about the Project for a New American [21st] Century. Often, it is not what someone writes, but what they know about and leave out.
Poland used to own western Ukraine, and Poland was one of the 2 countries which pushed for the Eastern Partnership, which is the forerunner to becoming a member of the EU, and also NATO.
I’m no academic, etc., but perceive guys like Mearshiemer as sincere dreamers. There is not only an elite with a planetary agenda, yes they are astounding psychopaths to whom a million deaths means nothing,and have no capacity for shame or remorse. There are also within these cabals infinitely wealthy rivals for power, the great game among them of personal triumph. Only when they have over-reached do they relent. This game they have on in Ukraine, while offering many prizes for every sort, can only stop when the funding stops and the consensus of peers evaporates. Even a Morgan or a Rockefeller sometimes has to fold, having overplayed the hand. Many of us have tergiversated for months on whether Putin made a mistake when he didn’t just adopt the Donbass. Today PC Roberts, who has all along pointed out that VP has all the cards, sizes it up: Time for ultimatum. No more Mr. Nice.
Anonymous Jake 20 August, 2014 19:52
You wrote:
“John Mearsheimer is not a bad guy. I met him when I was a grad student at the University of Chicago. He is one of the few American academics who have dared to oppose the Israel lobby in the USA. He told me that Israel is nuts, and that the USA is actually encouraging the destruction of Israel by giving them unqualified support.”
Israel has influential lobbyists in the US, but I can tell you Tel Aviv/Jerusalem is not happy with US interference and dependency on US money. I have seen the Israelis reach out to the EU and Russia to get a better balance for years.
1. Long ago, Israel and the UK, perhaps also France, launched a war against Egypt over the Suez canal. After the US issued an order, a fatwah, they had to stop.
2. When Israel wanted to hit back at Iraq, the US _disabled_ the GPS system in the Middle East. That is why the EU desperately wants Galileo, a copy of Russian Glonass, to stay free from US dominance. Yes, Galileo is a copy of Glonass.
3. The second destruction of Lebanon in 2006 was not in Israels interest. The Israelis had to abandon one third of their country. Imagine having all those internal refugees in the geographically small country of Israel. The war, an American idea, was a disaster. Ariel Sharon, a wise man, who refused to fight a twofront war, went into a “coma”. Go figure.
Israel is dependent on US money and so takes orders. I think the powers that be want the Jews and the Muslims to destroy each other. I don’t have access to the rooms where decisions are made, but that is my working theory today.
Anon Mongoose.
That is *very* interesting. So Cargill got hit too; we figured Shell pulled out of the fracking bc the well was not performing as expected but also bc of the risk of repeated damage; same for why they pulled out of the pipeline bidding: who in their right mind expects that area to be peaceful enough to preclude more damage any time soon — and even though acts of war are generally precluded in any insurance policy, which insurer in their right mind would cover anything there right about now? Yes, Cargill can write off their losses — to the extent they pay enough in taxes to have anything to write off. But who else would willingly invest in anything there right now? Not only does it look like the “unrest” will last at least until Spring (yes, General Winter, but look who’s going to be negociating on the Junta side and you tell me the negociations will proceed at anything other than a snail’s pace), but there’s approximately a 50-50 chance at minimum that Novorossiya will end up un-federated and tied far more closely to Russia. So which Western backers are going to back anything? Otoh, the Neocon game plan seems always to be failed states, so that group at least must be licking their lips and rubbing their hands in absolute glee.
From a strictly human-behaviour point of view the Empire of Lies does not appear to be interested in “reasonable” theories. It rather seems that only hard facts on the ground can force them to change their sociopathic views. The most obvious hard fact would be Kiev’s defeat in its war of agression against Novorussia.
Here’s to hope that a defeat of the butchers will bring significant change.
Larchmonter445 said…
Republican wing of the Establishment Elites contains the war hawks … Plus, most of them are Jewish. … These are the loons who think they can deal with Nazis.
The Kiev “Nazis” are Jews, Ninni!
Why is M getting so much credit for he finland solution Kissinger pushed early on. As a matter of course the partition solution kiss pushed to no avail in Syria appears to be the IS strategy.
Here is the Proftel:
Nothing like a good parable to tell the story.
You know the istory of Aladdin and the magic lamp found in the desert.
According to istory, you need to rub the lamp three times for the genius skirt.
The first time the USA / NATO / Aglozionist rubbed the lamp, was in Iraq.
The second time in Syria – was when the cover started to leave.
In the third rubbed the lamp, where the cap was Ukraine exploded like a champagne bottle stopper.
Afghanistan and Libya do not count because they rubbed the bottle, the first ever all knew that it is a great full of poppies shit like Bolivia is full of cocaine. Libya because Gaddafi has not always liked making her indecent consumption as sultan.
This text placed by Saker, clearly shows that those who rubbed the lamp are trying to shove the cork in the bottle.
Now is later.
I do not like Putin for a number of reasons (one is personal – my wife is a Jehovah’s Witness) but consider him the only world leader who can stop this idiocy will be the third world war.
I believe that we, BRICS, we can change that.
Yesterday and today I suffered two days of “course” where one Phd French cited examples of how the council, as do agreements.
Quoted from the book of Hilary Clinton, ObaObAObankster cited as a great guy who got Obamakare.
The range on the second day, we were just me and my class, I did my weights on the course content, especially those who were financing, broke camp and went away.
Now I know how NGOs invest in trying to make the head of public officials like me.
Incidentally, if this unfortunate French Phd in France was probably starve.
Well, I spoke too.
Alexandre.
Vampires simply cannot see themselves in the mirror.
To a T.Rex, of COURSE sheep are for rending and eating. It is the order of nature. To suggest otherwise is incomprehensible gibberish to them. Shrug.
The ethnic cleansing will continue until it is physically unable to. Mearsheimer has no real power, and so does not count. No way to slow down. The oil companies, Kolomoyskyi, and Biden’s team are driving the plays.
This is nothing new. Mearsheimer was saying the same thing back in March.
NY Times op-ed: Getting Ukraine Wrong
PBS News Hour: Reviewing U.S. options for responding to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine
This is a small part of Colonel Ruban’s interview that I had time to translate.(he is a colonel of Ukr. Army)
E.S.: Who are these people you negotiate with? What is their character? Why they do this? You probably had time know them.
Colonel Ruban: Why does Ukrainian army take prisoners? Who are the people in Ukrainian army?
E.S. So, for you they are the same?
Colonel Ruban: And for you they are not? For you 6 million citizens of Donetsk and Lugansk all of a sudden become enemies?
E.S. No, peaceful residents are not enemies.
Colonel Ruban: And those who took up to arms – it is 15 thousand of them – are they enemies?
E.S. Well, yes, they threatened lives of innocent people.
Colonel Ruban: The army threatens lives of innocent people. It is created for this purpose. The officers graduating from military schools – they are professional killers, did not you know that? He is not a man with a banner at the parade; he is a man in trenches, which kills other people.
He studied this, like I did. I’m a pilot-destroyer. Take away the word pilot, and what do I have to do? To destroy.
I don’t think of these people – like you do – as enemies. It is easy for you from this position. But I know these people for a long time. There are among them officers, we protested together against Yanukivich at the Maydan.
E.S. What do you mean there?
Colonel Ruban: There –on the other side, behind the line in Donetsk and Lugansk Republics.
E.S: You mean they were with you at the Maydan?
Colonel Ruban: Yes, they fight Ukrainian army. They are on both sides.
E.S. Why do they do it?
Colonel Ruban: Why “Pravy Sector” was at the Maydan? Why people were at the Maydan?
E.S. If they were together at the Maydan, why do they fight those they stood together with?
Colonel Ruban: Because for people at the Maydan ousting Yanukovich was enough. No other demands were fulfilled. But those people decided to go the very end. They need real changes, not just replacing Yanukovich. And majority of their demands are those announced at the Maydan.
E.S.: But it looks absolutely different.
Colonel Ruban: Thank to you, the journalists, and the rest who called them terrorists and those why created the word “ATO” instead of word “War”
E.S. But Russia does not recognize it as a war…
Colonel Ruban: What has it to do with Russia?
E.S. In your opinion Russia does not participate in this conflict?
Colonel Ruban: Did you see Russian army there?
E.S. I have seen soldiers from Russia.
Colonel Ruban: Did you see Russian Army?
E.S. Officially – no.
Colonel Ruban: You will not see the unofficial either, because they are not there. If you met a Russian it does not mean Russian involvement
E.S.: So, how do you call it?
Colonel Ruban. Anyhow. You know, that mercenaries fight on both sides.
E.S.: Yes
Colonel Ruban: You know that Poland is fighting with us, and Switzerland? You know a saying: “Russia and USA will fight until the last Ukrainian” It is true. But this is geopolitics, and there are other places do discuss it. The national security is to discuss it. But we are working in the field, and with our knowledge and experience we call it by its name. If there are Russian weapons – it is a question who brought it. Can Putin prohibit it – it is another question. But this is not Russian involvement.
N-V
“”Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time”.
If Mearsheimer said that, Mearsheimer is an idiot. Look at Russia’s GDP, up three-fold since 2000. Meantime the US GDP is up a nominal 50% over the same time period, although since most of US GDP is healthcare, advertising, entertainment, legal and financial services, and war, while the industrial economy declines it’s hard to see how the US can be anything but a declining power. In fact, that;s the reason for launching the war on Russia now, before the odds against success become impossibly long.
One good thing about this war, though, is that now we’re all lovers of Nazis committing genocide, it must surely mean that political correctness is finally dead.
There’s only one problem with that approach at this late juncture: it would require Poroshenko as a sacrificial lamb to the Hague as a true acknowledgement of its sincerity.
Ah, but the Right Sector Praetorian Guard, what of them? They grow restless.
“What do you think – does the publication of this article mean that some kind of the beginning of a realization that the US needs to revise it’s Ukrainian policy?”
No, because what is suggested does nothing to help the Anglo Empire achieve its goals. A neutral Ukraine is what Russia has wanted all along – as long at the Crimean bases were used by Russia. So it is more likely that the article was published to encourage the Kremlin to think that there are realists in Washington.
In any case, US elites really only recognize and respect force, or perhaps the better phrase is facts on the ground. If the rebels take Kiev, then Washington will put old guys from the Cold War who were of the realist school on TV and in Switzerland to say that a neutral Ukraine is a good thing. If Kiev smashes the rebels, then John McCain and Hillary will be meeting with the leaders of the “Crimean Democracy Front” and looking forward to the day that Moscow is liberated.
AK,
Don’t forget that the Bush and Bin Laden family friendship goes back a loooong time. A bunch of Bin Ladens were airlifted out of Boston right after those planes hit — I think while Bush Pere was still stranded in St. Louis or somewhere. Also, I think Bandar is back… :~(
Also, I disagree with you re: Obama having any Socialist inclinations at all: he doesn’t give a fig about We The People. He was a corporate tool in Illinois (hello William M. Daley) and hasn’t stopped since. Check out Mulga Mumblebrains comment at 23:53 for more detail; he’s spot on. And then just think about it: how can he be so obviously in thrall to the banksters and have a Socialist cell in his body, even the liar that he is? The two are just mutually exclusive. Frankly, I *wish* he’d be more of a Socialist: we’d all be doing waay better, for example, with single payer/Medicare For All, and maybe there’d even be some jobs bc corporations and elites would be paying their fair share of the taxes again. I’ve got no problem with any of that! ;~)
And oboyoboy, do I ever agree with everything you wrote at 00:13.
Anonymous 00:52,
Now *that* is a new one! If Israel is so unhappy with US interference (Huh? What interference? Our highest leaders are treated with contempt when they visit, and Israel does what it wants regardless of what we say) and dependency on US money (then stop taking it, fergawdsakes!). And the second destruction of Lebanon (as opposed to the first one?) was not in Israel’s interest Only. Because. You. Failed. Miserably. Finally, your last sentence doesn’t succeed at all in shifting the blame. Nice try though.
NO there is no change in opinion. Russia needs to make it clear that in any global nuclear war started by the chicken hawk billionaires, that all oligarchs, their families’ relatives etc. will be prime targets of nuclear bombs. This is the only thing psychopaths understand. Russia needs to start eliminating any pro US oligarchs in Russia and Ukraine right now so the chicken hawks in the will know they are next. If Russia fails to do this there will be global nuclear war and humans will become extinct!!
>>>The US has opposed negotiated settlements in the past, demanding the rebels surrender to the pro-West Ukrainian government before any negotiations are even considered.<<<<
I dont believe anything the US says about reversing directions or backing down. In its history the US has never backed down. That does not mean it has never been defeated. Only that if a tentacle was destroyed, another took its place and declared victory. They practice a scorched earth policy where if they cant have it no one else will. Articles like this one are to placate the ignorant. Just look at what they say about Ukraine! So the rebels surrender to fascists who are killing the militias family members before anyone should talk. As if there will be anyone left to talk to after the surrender. This has also been the way it was with the native Americans. They killed off those who offered resistance and them imposed their version of a treaty. I dont recall any treaties where the natives actually had a say in it. It was always unconditional surrender where the strongest were killed off and then a peace was imposed on the weak just to show their so called humanity. It is the same act in the middle east. Ofcourse they always have the cost benefit ratio… If the cost is high and the benefits way far off in the future, it just simmers underneath until the beat is ready.. Iraq is a good example. They stated a civil war where they did not have to spend much resources. After all it does not matter much what is happening on the ground as long as your tactical goals are being met. The US never wanted to run things like the romans. They only want to skim the top.. Where the profits are the largest. Now that they have control of the pipeline in ukraine, most likely able to shut down south stream, going after Russia would have to wait another day. Too many people know the game, they can all run the very same game theories and see the outcomes. It dont work if people already know what outcomes they are trying to create. But you cant reverse the situation. The wild card here is the economic situation.. No matter how many simulations are done on a variety of elements, the leverage used makes even minute strategic mistakes blow up like a domino. So extreme control is placed on everything.
Saker
It’s not so much surprising that this article came from Mearsheimer. With his paper “The Israel Lobby” he went against the same Neocon/Zionist cabal which is currently ravaging Ukraine. And like back then with the Israel Lobby article he argued it damages US imperial interests. What’s interesing is that the Council of Foreign Relations published his article on Ukraine. It may be a sign that there are some doubts in US foreign policy elites about the wisdom of their policies regarding Russia and Ukraine.
What I see is that Mearsheimer has a strong argument:
The United States will also someday need Russia’s help containing a rising China. Current U.S. policy, however, is only driving Moscow and Beijing closer together.
So, what Mearsheimer does is saying that the current aggressive US policy on Ukraine is driving Russia into the arms of China, while the US will need a partnership with Russia to be able to compete with China in the future.
I think that is what likely caused the doubts that led the CFR to accept this article for publishing.
However, Mearsheimers policy recommendation are partly delusional:
To achieve this end, the United States and its allies should publicly rule out NATO’s expansion into both Georgia and Ukraine.
This is total delusion. Statements and wordly promises from the U.S./NATO/EU mean nothing for Russia because Russia rightly suspects that U.S./NATO/EU will routinely break their promises whatever they are whenever it suits them. What Russia needs to regain a sense of trust is words backed up by facts on the ground, like Russian peacekeepers in Donetsk/Lugansk, referenda/maybe military bases in Kharkov and Odessa, Ukraine paying gas debt, revoking EU-Ukraine/Georgia/Moldavia treatis and renogotiation of them together with Russia, Go ahead for South stream/2nd north stream pipeset, end of all sanctions, end of missile shield, stop of NATO aggression against Syria and so on. Words of serial wordbreakers US/NATO/EU mean nothing anymore, action is needed.
And more delusions from Mearsheimer:
The West should also help fashion an economic rescue plan for Ukraine funded jointly by the EU, the International Monetary Fund, Russia, and the United States — a proposal that Moscow should welcome, given its interest in having a prosperous and stable Ukraine on its western flank.
So, Mearsheimer thinks Russia shall let the EU swallow Ukraine, but because the EU/IMF lack the money to finance Ukraine EU entry, Russia shall finance it. It’s total delusion. Russia won’t finance EU’s aggressive expansion policies. If EU/Ukraine accession is abandoned, Russian money will flow, if it’s not abandoned EU shall finance it’s new client state themselves.
But in general the direction of Mearheimer’s article is the right one. The west shall pull back or see serious conflict with Russia develop, and theresult of it will be that Russia, China and other countries aggressed by the west (eg Iran/South America/India/Asean/Iraq/Syria…) will form a strong alliance against the aggressive west.
Btw: find a copy of the full Mearsheimer article here, foreign affairs seems to have restricted access to that article today:
freerepublic.com/focus/news/3195139/posts
Well…I miss the old hands. Being pragmatic is a comforting quality. Was a pre-requisite for diplomats. Now all you need is dual-citizenship and you’re good to go. I don’t think it much matters what Mearsheimer thinks or writes. The current situation in Ukraine is unsustainable. Americans can’t even pause in the last week of vacation to pay much attention to ISIS beheading American journalist — so they surely won’t care about this one article in a sea of apostasy.
I think the end comes when Americans refuse to pay any attention to the propaganda and FF events — and refuse to re-engage in conflicts — particularly in the ME. The Mercs/NeoCons/MIC are a different story. They’ll fight to the last Ukrainian or Palestinian standing. One must learn not to fight their wars.
They’ve lost credibility with Americans. Which is why there’s so much “bread & circus” happening these days. But I’m glad Mearsheimer wrote that article. It’s always good when others join the truth-brigade.
Nora @ 21 August, 2014 03:07
By ‘socialism’ I certainly don’t mean Swedish or German-style social market/welfare state. I mean more caudillismo and corruption along the lines of Mexico’s old corporatist PRI or the corporatist Peronismo that screwed up Argentina so badly and left her vulnerable to the bankster loansharks like the GOP-financing (just to keep this bipartisan) Peter Singer now demanding their pound of flesh (sorry for the reference for those easily offended or who would dismiss us all as anti-Semites but Shakespeare’s Shylock isn’t about Jews but about the need for debt jubilee and forgiveness).
Frankly, the focus on the US is pointless. What matters is Europe. Even were Karl Rove to come out and say the Ukraine was a mistake – really is irrelevant because Ukraine is absolutely a minor matter to almost all Americans, which in turn allows this issue to be manipulable even by bureaucrats and/or political cliques.
However, unlike Iraq/Libya/Afghanistan, the relevant players aren’t tribesmen but a Europe which still retains in living memory what the effects of factionalization and war has on European society as a whole.
To me, the jury is still out as to whether Europe truly will be willing to enter into a mutual self-annihilation with Russia.
Ukraine as a neutral buffer makes too much sense, but in the unlikely event that it should be formally put forward, don’t expect any money from the US. The us is a bankrupt and failing State which desperately needs a war somewhere – – ANYWHERE – – to foster its self delusion that it is still important. How about a buffer in regards to RU and European NATO, and leave the US out of it entirely.
I have one more thing regarding the argument put forward by Mearsheimer that current US policy on Ukraine and Russia is pushing Russia into the arms of China. In FT there was 3 weeks ago an interesing article regarding this point:
US diplomat Victoria Nuland faces questions over strategy
… The US has a strategy for raising the pressure on Russia but it is much less clear on how it plans to end the crisis, short of complete capitulation by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Even President Barack Obama did not sound optimistic that new US-EU sanctions would change Russia’s calculus. …
“It is clear that her whole approach is to push Russia so hard that it has no choice but to accommodate the US,” says Dimitri Simes, president of the Center for the National Interest in Washington DC.
“That can work up to a point. But a realistic strategy would be to have some form of modus vivendi with Russia, especially at a time when China is becoming much more important for the US.”
From:
ft.com/cms/s/0/a4f13052-18ca-11e4-80da-00144feabdc0.html
In the Google-Cache one may read that FT article circumventing the paywall:
webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:KrSasj5bJvgJ:www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a4f13052-18ca-11e4-80da-00144feabdc0.html
Mersheimer is an Anglo Imperialist who opposes US behavior in Ukraine for imperial TACTICAL reasons.
Namely, as Bandolero inferred above, he fears the rise of an Eurasian (i.e., Russia-China) alliance that can change Anglo-American imperialism.
As such, the United States must try to play Russia against China. And Mersheimer believes that the USA’s Ukrainian machinations will not faciliate its broader designs.
Remember, the Anglos are absolutely OBSESSED with dominating Eurasia.
They lust to divide-and-colonize Eurasia by fomenting ethnic, national, and geopolitical tensions BETWEEN and WITHIN the major nations of this continent.
This has been true since the godfather of Anglo geostrategy, HALFORD MacKINDER.
The Anglo Axis of Evil nations (USA, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) CAN NEVER BE TRUSTED with respect to their intentions to Eurasia.
The Anglos all understand that they must destabilize and decimate Eurasia in order to maintain their bloody rule over the world.
IntI swore to you that never intrude in the internal affairs of the United States since I’m in Brazil but;
Those clouds on Fergson it left me puzzled.
What is HAARP? If so, hit the wrong spot.
A shot in the foot.
You do Russian roulette with an automatic pistol.
hehe.eressante:
I read and downloaded it yesterday.
If you sign up of Foreign Affairs you get 4 free articles per month.
I thought it was a very good start and better than anything out of the establishment. It actually spoke of the Coup!
It also made some really good points from a credentialed academic’s perspective. He and Walt actually took on Israel so he deserves some respect but needs to be informed.
You should write him Mr Saker!
exomike
This article and the ‘leaked’ article from NATO seem to be feelers in the direction of pulling the plug on the present policy. As for the ussa losing credibility, the ussa has no credibility. CFR is blowing smoke when it assumes the ussa is credible.
What is behind this move? Winter is coming, UE is not a reliable energy partner. The ussa has shown itself unable to convince NATO to attack (Europe is not prepared to go to war, even the poor Poles), RU sanctions are financially squeezing a foundering EU. RU has been touting its militaty prowess (is the F35 flying yet?). China is weighing in a bit stronger. Porky is losing the war. The Psyops war is being lost as more and more of the general public are seeing the face of western MSM. The entire fiasco is a slow moving train wreck. One small error by Porky (eg attack the relief convoy) and RU will come down on him and the EU and the ussa won’t do a damn thing about it.
captcha:8 tries
@WW from Germany, re:
“The reason why Putin is so smart…(is)because he was educated in the USSR in soviet times”
It is not only that they studied Marx, Engels, Lenin, but the general level of education was higher in all socialist countries. They did not went down the “dumbing down” slope introduced in America which succeeded in depriving the populace of any critical sense, transforming it in that thoughtless putty able to receive any form that their manipulators intend to give it.
Mike McDonnell
Your comments with a name-calling seem childish.
But since you are down under, you’re looking up all the time, and while you are—Pug Mahon.
Married an Irish girl and she favored the saying when her temper rose up. Patricia had a mean way with her.
Didn’t take any from anyone. Good practice I’ve adopted.
Your ranting, rambling blog is like an ideological tube of misanthropy. Glad you get it all out in words. Like therapy, i imagine.
It suggests control by other means – the IMF in particular, indebtedness in general – an attempt to control through ideology rather than military force.
Ukraine has never been the primary objective, merely one pathway towards the objective – continuing primacy of the opponents.
John Mearsheimer has been pro detente since Soviet times as has Stephen F. Cohen – expect some co-ordination of media campaigns.
The motivation for the piece is likely recognition that the opponents are losing strategically worldwide, and an attempt to regain a strategic advantage.
The piece also de-emphasises the activities/strategic perspectives of others, continuing the arrogance of “the indispensable nation”.
Historically the control mechanisms have not been restricted to military means – IMF, World Bank, EU et al have always been guaranteed by military means, despite the fiat paper proclaiming “In god we trust”.
When cornering rats you have 3 options:
1. Let them escape.
2. Kill them.
3. Be attacked by them.
The strategic questions remain does a drowning man serve your present purpose, or if not, how to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback?
Michael McDonnell 01:15
Kolomoisky shows off his new outfit – menora meets Pravi Sektor
http://i.day.zp.ua/2/7/742b1c018d3663e85a3f6f2ddf7d449c.jpg
The United States of America is not capable of accepting compromise. If you watch Americans in any context they always talk about “winning”, being a “winner” not being a “loser” etc. It is hard-wired into them that they have to win, and particularly against Russia whom they “defeated” according to the neocons in WWIII. It is hard to see how the last twenty years might have prepared the USA to make any kind of compromise which would entail not machinating in Ukraine, not operating secret agents, contaminating and manipulating politics. It is very very hard to see how they could resist doing these things which now form part of the State Departments hard-wired doctrine on national defence.
The support for the Ukraine will probably begin to evaporate sometime during the fall, the combination of a collapsing economy and the continued failure of the junta’s military operations in eastern Ukraine will in my opinion compel western elites to seek a negotiated outcome, arrogance, in my opinion, can disguise reality for only so long.
> changing policy toward Ukraine at this late date would seriously damage U.S. credibility around the world
Credibility? Of the US government? What credibility?
The article assumes that Russia would believe another promise made by NATO.
AK,
Oh. Gotcha. Well, let’s call it something else then — stupidity, Neoliberalism, corruption, whatever. Bc the Know-Nothings have been led to believe that anything having anything to do with any kind of Socialism is ultraverybadnogood, and that’s just not so. What we’re on the verge of is far worse than Argentina’s debt though — it’s Argentina’s Junta. And that’s a totally different kind of critter than mere mismanagement.
I think Obama’s a Neoliberal to his core — if he has one. I.e., the current Western political version of a psychopath. Was it Kipling who divided all men into knaves and fools? The distinction still works — there are pitifully few in the middle, but it’d be nice to bring along some more, both in general and in politics.
A global claim to reestablish the UN:
In Spanish:
http://www.rebelion.org/noticia.php?id=188705
Presentation of the Global Platform Against Wars:
In Spanish:
http://www.rebelion.org/noticia.php?id=152482
to save some searching – it’s actually “Póg mo thóin” and it means kiss my ****
I live in Belfast :-)
Sanctioned Russia and Iran sign 5-yr deal to ease Western pressure
http://rt.com/business/178316-russia-iran-oil-deal-sanctions/
Hopefully up next the S300 air defense system to simultaneously give Amerika and Israel the finger
Farflungstar
From Zio Occupied Amerikan
Very interesting article written by a brilliant scholar. But I’m afraid it cannot be taken as a sign that the US elite is beginning to have second thoughts. Look at how many times he refers to “the realists” – meaning his own school of thinking. He is an academic, and of paramount importance for him is confuting his opponents in the field of international relations studies. Of course, for non Americans, an article as this one – and the comments in this blog – are an important reminder that if there is some hope in the world right now it is to be found 1) in the fact that there are men and women willing to give their lives to oppose empire 2) and that there are Americans with such self-awareness and such ability to uncover the workings of the “deep state”.
To CISMarkets: When I was a kid we were taught that being a “sore loser” showed lack of character and no integrity. Worse than losing was being a winning braggart or bully. That was an America that wasn’t yet ZIO-fied. Before “dual-citizen-zero-sum-winner-takes-all-shits” didn’t run the whole fuking show. Before Russian/Eastern European Bolsheviks (now NeoCons) took over all media, finance and government levers. Russia got rid of their “bolshevik” problem by sending them to US and Israel. Give us “old-school- Americans” some slack. We don’t deserve nor want these “winner-take-all” ZIOs anymore than did you.
Look. Stepan Bandera was a born psychopath, but we took him in and his followers too, and carefully nourished them all. The last of his original band only died in 2003, for gosh sakes, and the Dems and Repubs both supported them and grew them all these years, sent them back to Kiev and put them in power.
How did we know how to nurture them? We’ve had plenty of practice right here, Since. Day. One. As far as I’m concerned, there are two and only two kinds of people in this world: them what believes in equality and them what doesn’t. And them what doesn’t, at least here in the good old US of A, are right now more than halfway to Banderista-dom themselves whether they know it or not: just a little more propaganda from the gurus they still foolishly trust, and they’ll be doing the American equivalent of body-stitching et. al. Plus murder of course — who here really believes all those guns are really for Washington’s jack-booted thugs, instead of urban blacks these terrified souls really believe would be foolish enough to run out to the exurbs and steal their teevees.
Divide and conquer? What on earth do you think has been happening here? IF we all worked together, on the basis, you know, of all of us being American and all of us being in Precisely. The. Same. Boat., we might even get somewhere.
Otherwise, we’ll end up making Ukraine look like a church picnic.
Hello N-V,
you must translate complete this very interesting interview with colonel Ruban. Maybe the russian team.
http://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2014/08/20/7035274/
Since 1 hour I have the german translation It´s a must read!
To AGS:
I stand corrected and apologise for the generalisation and suggestion that there are not thoughtful and dignified people state-side! Perhaps one day you’ll vote the donkeys/elephants out, when you are given the chance to.
“What do you think?”
There’s the neocon faction with their agenda* and a bunch of other factions who either oppose or at least don’t actively support the neocons but don’t have a collectively agreed alternative.
Until these other groups in the US have a cohesive alternative faction and an alternative foreign policy plan they will lose the battle with the neocons but the split is genuine and should be used to attempt to divide the neocons from the US public.
The biggest problem in doing this is the right-isolationists and the left-isolationists let their divisions in other areas prevent unity on foreign policy.
** The neocon agenda is basically to destroy all potential threats to Washington or Israel – not *actual* threats but *potential* threats. This is the key point. Their agenda is driven by paranoia not logic. If/when the biggest potential threats are destroyed then they’ll move on to medium sized threats then small threats then tiny etc. This agenda will eventually destroy the world.
Extreme paranoia drives them, not logic.
(There might be good reason why they have such extreme paranoia but you don’t want people like that running the foreign policy of a superpower.)
Mearsheimer radio interview about his article:
http://scotthorton.org/interviews/2014/08/21/082114-john-j-mearsheimer/
It is far too late for this suggestion to be of any use. Ukraine is under the control of right wing fascists,(right sector etc.) so until these people are overcome and neutalised it will not matter how much integration there is at a political level.
foreign affairs used to be the upper elites method of informing the underlings of whats ahead or what they want an outcome to look like. that may have changed as I’ve been out of touch with that area of politics awhile.