The situation in South East Asia these last two weeks has been relatively calm, but things are most certainly simmering away beneath the surface. This SITREP focuses on Vietnam’s “tightrope” diplomacy between the US and China, the situation in Myanmar as the country approaches elections, the ever-present danger of US provocations in the South China Sea, and finally, Russia’s developing relationship with ASEAN.
Vietnam is changing… and so is the balance of power in Asia, 2 October 2015
Ahead of visits by both President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping to Hanoi in November, the development of relations between Vietnam and the two countries is something to watch over the next few months. All indications are that there is an internal party struggle over the question, particularly as the country approaches the date set for its 12th Party Congress in January 2016, at which a new party Secretary General will be elected. [source]
Vietnam between China and the US: The next balancing test beckons, 16 October 2015
Furthermore, while Vietnam’s increasingly close ties with Washington are cause for concern – especially with Hanoi’s signing of the TPP as well as its stance on the South China Sea situation – it’s possible, as Ngo Di Lan writes, that “in the short term, Xi’s trip could still repair China-Vietnam ties to some extent and perhaps divert Vietnamese attention away from the current territorial dispute to focus on opportunities for cooperation between the two countries”. [source]
Vietnam accuses China of sinking fishing boat, 15 October 2015
The need for stability on this question is all the more apparent as incidents like this turn the heat up ever so slightly. [source]
China defence minister seeks peace, stability in Southeast Asia, 16 October 2015
With this in mind, at the first-ever informal meeting of ASEAN defence ministers in Beijing, China proposed joint drills in the South China Sea with ASEAN beginning next year. At the meeting, China’s Defence Minister Chang Wanquan took the opportunity to state that “Forces from outside the region are using the Internet, social media and other means to carry out incitements against countries in this region, threatening social stability”. [source]
China reveals new proposal to boost defence ties with ASEAN, 17 October 2015
How this informal grouping develops going forward, particularly in the context of the South China Sea tensions as well as Russia’s burgeoning relationship with ASEAN (see article below) deserves careful attention.
Myanmar President signs ‘nationwide ceasefire’ with ethnic rebel groups, 15 October 2015
The other significant development in South East Asia these past two weeks was the signing of the Nationwide Ceasefire Accord between Myanmar’s government and various rebel factions. Significantly, however “Seven armed ethnic groups, including the largest, were missing”. [source]
Myanmar: Drawn out peace or battle lines drawn? 23 October 2015
For a detailed analysis of the repercussions of the ceasefire accord, as well as the context and potential outcomes for Myanmar, I highly recommend reading Andrew Korybko’s two-part analysis on Oriental Review. Ultimately, the immense potential for destabilization in the country, and the possible scenario in which India and China enter on opposite sides of renewed conflict in what would essentially become a proxy war between the two countries, “could be perhaps the greatest blow that multipolarity suffers this century”.
I: Myanmar: Drawn-Out Peace Or Battle Lines Drawn? (I)
II: Myanmar: Drawn-Out Peace Or Battle Lines Drawn? (II)
The looming military showdown in the South China Sea, 19 October 2015
As expected, the US continues to make its preparations to send one of its naval vessels through China’s disputed 12-mile territorial limit in the South China Sea. However, the main cause for concern is not the sail through itself, but rather what the US decides to do when it gets there. If the US decides to stay within the 12-mile limit (which it doesn’t recognise) then it’s likely that the PLA Navy will be sent to expel them. [source]
South China Sea face off: Anxious hours in Pivotland, 22 October 2015
On the sail through, Peter Lee writes that the significance of Obama’s action is somewhat limited outside of theatrical/propaganda considerations, unless the intention is to further militarise the region by “provid[ing] the PRC with a further pretext for overtly and irrevocably militarising the islands”. [source]
ASEAN’s SEZs can help actualise Russia’s Asian sea arc, 24 October 2015
Finally, here’s Andrew Korybko once again on the importance of Russia’s “Pivot to ASEAN”, both politically, economically, and strategically. [source]
Conclusions
– Vietnam’s complex relationships with the US and China will be tested by Barack Obama and Xi Jinping’s visits in November. How these shifting relationships influence ASEAN and the South China Sea situation need to be tracked closely.
– Myanmar stands on a knife edge ahead of elections set for the 8th of November. How the country develops following elections, particularly if a resumption of civil war occurs, has potentially grave consequences for the future of the region, and multipolarity as a whole.
– Militarisation of the SCS continues apace, encouraged by Washington’s planned naval sail through in the near future.
– The positive progression of Russia’s relationship with the ASEAN states has the potential to deepen the strategic partnership between China and Russia, while helping to develop the region.
This is a very important issue on whether or not Vietnam aligns with the US or not. Please continue to cover the results of their Party elections.
Vietnam is also pulling closer to militaristic Japan with whom it also has a long standing relationship. Japan helped Vietnam rebuild Bach Mai hospital after it was bombed by the US.
The Vietnamese Party Chief recently visited Japan for the first time in September of this year.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/japan-pledges-new-vessels-loans-to-vietnam-in-boost-to-strategic-partnership/
Hi Joseph K,
Thank you very much for reading and reporting on my Oriental Review articles. Great SITREP in general and about a very important region. Thanks.
Best,
Andrew
Andrew your two articles on Myanmar (the links provided in Joseph’s article) are Excellent (that’s an understatement). I learned more about the various players in Myanmar in your 2-part article than would be possible anywhere else. You made a very complex topic clear and understandable for the uninitiated (the mark of a real expert) – Thanks Joseph K.
You perfectly explained what British trained and cultivated ‘democrat’ and political opportunist, Aung San Suu Kyi’s, real role and agenda is in Myanmar.
You also demystified the various ethnicities (including the Rohingyas), the geography and the scores of rebel movements that infest Myanmar.
You also have shed more light on Indian infrastructure projects and Chinese gas & oil interests in that country than anything I found in the Chinese or Indian media. The potential of 3rd powers to create a conflict between in India and China (thereby breaking the BRICS) in that country, as you’ve pointed out, is extremely important.
Korybko’s article goes a very long way in demystifying a very complex country and geopolitical situation.
I really think that these 2 articles of yours ought to be reprinted here on Saker’s blog – really high-quality backgrounder and analysis.
To other readers here: it would be well worth your time to read those 2 articles by Andrew.
I heartily agree, Espelho.
And thanks for the kind words Andrew. All your work is top notch.
I rather fear that the BRICS are history. Brazil is failing, and Dilmar looks certain to be followed by some pro-Washington neo-liberal thug. India is rapidly turning Hindutva fascist, and will probably resort to provocations against China to please its US, Israeli and Japanese friends. Modi has turned out the full Hindu fascist, as RSS and other chauvinist gangs run amok, killing meat-eaters, Moslems and ‘rationalist’ Hindus.
“RSS and other chauvinist gangs run amok, killing meat-eaters, Moslems and ‘rationalist’ Hindus.” ???
This is what happens when someone relies on MSM feeds.
The majority of Indian English media ere born & operated under previous govt (Mainly Congress + allies) who ruled India for 60+ years. This has created a class who dominate the India media. The Indian media had a very good run (participator in channel-II diplomacy, awarded many times, had a major say in many things). They don’t like Modi as he never entertains them. You will rarely see Modi giving an interview to any English new channel in India.
Let’s see you comments in a detailed manner.
Lynching of a Moslem (Aqlakh / Iqlakh) took place. Yes. The background is – There were two cases of calves missing in neighborhood and one reported case of a half-destroyed carcass of calf in the near vicinity of Iqlakh’s house. People were agitated in that area. Someone with strong enmity with Iqlakh’s family took the advantage. But the reports do not tell that most family members escaped with help of Hindu neighbors. Neither the reports tell that after a week, two Muslim girls of that village were married off with financial help/donations from Hindu neighbors.
Neither the English reports will tell that in the same period, Prashant Poojary, a Hindu in Karnataka was killed by 04 Muslims as the person was assisting Karnataka Police with closing illegal abattoirs in that state.
Regarding “killing Meat-eaters” – Actually, it is amusing, if not hilarious !. Approx 82% of Indians are meat-eaters ! That will include me & my family too. Nobody really bothers what others eat. There is only one Legal restriction in some states (Law & Order – A state subject). That is killing cows & selling beef. Hindus see cow with some respect. Why so is difficult to explain to Non-Hindus. Some groups, just to taunt Hindus, take sadistic joy in killing cow.
Regarding ‘Rationalist Hindu killing’ – please note that among three such persons killed, two killed before Modi came in power and one happened after that. But again, Law & order is a state subject. The third incident happened in Karnataka where Congress party is in power.
Yes, Modi & Shinzo Abe has some friendship. Indians feel threatened by China’s expansionist vision & China’s friendship with Pakistan. Indians see Pakistan as the cradle of terrorism. But please do note that Indians see Russia as an Old & trustworthy friend. India was & is friendly with Iran & Iraq, even during Iran-Iraq conflict. Basically, India wants to have friendly relation with everyone, but not at its’ own cost.
Regarding Fascist Hindu-ism – First you should understand what Hindus think about their ‘religion’. First of all, it has a huge scope, not confined in one specific book. It says that people can reach Godhead by different paths ( following different religions). Conversion is totally uncalled for. Everyone is equal in front of God. There is no “specially chosen person” or a a “Specially chosen Race” to rule this earth. Neither there is any specific ritual one has to follow. Even an atheist can be a Hindu. Basically, Hindu means a way of life.
Yes, being a Hindu, I want that Nobody shall curtail my way of thinking in religious matter. Neither anybody shall have any authority in religious matter to guide / force me. Same latitude is not available in either Islamic or even Christian system. One has to accept the centrality of Pope or Bishops at least.
I only ask you to be better informed before commenting. And never rely on Indian English media fully, like you never fully believe in Fox News or BBC.
Dear chakra,
Excellent post!
Trying to dispell bigotry and shoot from the hip ignorance with facts generally works with civilized and mature people. It rarely works with immature bitter individuals wrapped up in their own deluded self importance and ideological preconceptions.
You’ve highlighted an excellent point here that I’ve brought up in past: relying on the sold-out 5th-column India-Hating “anglophile” English language media in India for a true picture of what’s going on India is as hypocritical and oxymoronic as relying on the Western MSM to get a true picture of the truth in the West.
Dear Espelho,
I am giving two links that may provide better insights :
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/the-bihar-elections-why-alls-fair-in-a-war-where-modi-is-the-obvious-target-2484218.html
http://www.newindianexpress.com/columns/s_gurumurthy/Narendra-Modi-and-the-National-Discourse-I/2015/10/24/article3094355.ece
The present discourse going in English media of India has a plan … and it may not be at the best interest of India.
regards
* Indians feel threatened by China’s expansionist vision & China’s friendship with Pakistan.*
old chap,
the current arunapradesh is a booty robbed from china , formally southern tibet.
china hasnt occupied one inch of indian land !
post independence, india has gobbled up assam, nagaland, tribuna, manipur [the seven sisters],
goa, sikkim, turned bhutan into a protectorate, nearly *absorbed* nepal.
no mean feat for the world’s *largest democracy*, hehehehe
*Basically, India wants to have friendly relation with everyone, but not at its’ own cost. *
do u know that the unitedsnake has a five yr plan to conquer seven countries iraq, aghan, somalia, libya, syria , iran, sudan ?
bharat also has it own *five yr plan*
http://www.countercurrents.org/khan131007.htm
what a way to make friends ;-)
hmmm,
no wonder they call bharat the unitedsnake of south asia,
hehehehe
You end your posts with:
“he he hehehehe”
and then you expect to be taken seriously.
Please get the facts right.
1) It is Arunachal Pradesh – Not Arunapradesh.
2) Assam, Manipur, Tripura – these states have got nothing to do with China, nothing in common. Our forefathers have stayed in these areas for centuries, How come China or anybody has any claim on it ? Present inclusion of these states are due to British transfer of power to Indians.
3) Sikkim case is wrong. Agreed.
4) Goa : Are you aware of the Portuguese prosecution of Hindu populace in Goa ? If not, please do google about Inquisition in Goa and the practices that followed. If you are a proper Christian, you will lower your head in shame.
5) If you follow Pakistan / Pro-Pakistan Razakar groups in Bangladesh who did decimate fellow countrymen in Bangladesh, then obviously you views will be different than mine. Most of these are guys in awe of RAW like we are in awe of ISI.
Basically, we live in real world, not in a Utopia. And there is no point seeing everything in black & white. Take any nation’s history and you will find some incidents which are wrong by any damn standard. You have your apprehensions, we have our apprehensions.
Somehow, your laugh appeared to be out of place here.
US seems determined to start a major war.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/us-southchinasea-usa-idUSKCN0SK2AC20151026
The U.S. Navy plans to send a guided-missile destroyer within 12 nautical miles of artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea, in the start of a series of challenges to China’s territorial claims in one of the world’s busiest sea lanes.
A U.S. defense official said the patrol by the USS Lassen would occur early on Tuesday local time near Subi and Mischief reefs in the Spratly archipelago, features that were formerly submerged at high tide before China began a massive dredging project to turn them into islands in 2014.
Great Info Peter regarding the Reuters link.
In the article the author states:
If the US decides to stay within the 12-mile limit (which it doesn’t recognise) then it’s likely that the PLA Navy will be sent to expel them. – Wishful thinking by some malicious outsider looking in.
I’ll believe that when I see it: China’s military does not have the habit of walking into a confrontation with a stronger power in a venue where they are completely at a disadvantage. And they certainly don’t have the capability to expel the US Navy. The US has 2 Carrier battlegroups in the region, go look at Saker/Southfront’s carrier map.
Let’s see what happens. This is going to get interesting.
China does not advertise is products, much like Russia did not advertise the capabilities of its cruse missiles and EW before they were actually needed.
We know China has the tech to successfully develop hypersonic glide missiles, the only nation to be able to, at the moment. They are only known about due to US and I would guess Russian monitoring of ballistic missile launches.
What else does China have?
Peter
I don’t want to go off on a tangent, but regarding your contentions:
much like Russia did not advertise the capabilities of its cruse missiles
That’s not true: The capabilities of Russian cruise missiles have been public for years, advertized by Russia at their missile manufacturer’s website and at military trade shows. That’s why so many countries, including China, keep buying them.
We know China has the tech to successfully develop hypersonic glide missiles, the only nation to be able to, at the moment.
Again that’s not true either, China is the 3rd nation to have developed this technology (Russia was first) – see the following factoid regarding Hypersonic glide tech:
[the Chinese] WU-14 conducted its first flight test on 9 January 2014, as reported by Washington Free Beacon on 14 January 2014.[2] On 15 January 2014, the Chinese Defense Ministry confirmed the test in a two-sentence statement faxed to news agencies and state-run media in Beijing.[3]
The Free Beacon said the test made China the third country after the Russian Federation and the United States to have successfully tested a hypersonic delivery vehicle able to carry thermonuclear weapons at a speed above Mach 10 – or 12,359 kilometers per hour (7,675 mph).
Regarding the hypersonic glide missiles – from what I have read Russia and US seem to be still in testing and research phase, not production. From what I have read, the difficulty seems to be in maneuvering at Mach 10 or higher which apparently the Chinese missile is capable of. I would guess at that speed the missile would be virtually glowing red
.
Your quote “successfully tested a hypersonic delivery vehicle able to carry thermonuclear weapons”
This may be the difference. I believe the Chinese missile is capable of manoeuvring a solid warhead to hit a moving ship?
Cruise missiles traveling 1500 km from small ships in the Caspian seemed to take the US by surprise. I was under the impression that 300 km was regarded as the max range for these missiles.
Hi Peter,
Regarding all Russian cruise missiles having a range limit of only 300 miles, that is absolutely not the case: that is the limit set by the MTCR to which Russia is a signatory. What this means is if Russia wants to export their cruise missiles to certain countries they have to limit the propulsion system so that it cannot have a range greater than 300 miles (another pathetic attempt by the West to artificially limit competition and maintain their advantage). Russian cruise missiles made for the Russian military are not subject to this restriction (because they are not for export). This is why for the same missile the Russian will have 2 main varieties: a domestic variant with full range and an export version or family which is range limited to below 300 miles; example:
The Kalibr missile launched by Russia from the Caspian Sea against terrorists (and the terrorists “now roasted” foreign intelligence handlers) has the name “Kalibr” a model designation “3M-14”, and a range of 1550 miles (or more). The export version of this missile has the name “Klub” , model designations “-S” for submarine launched or “-N” for ships, and a range under 300 miles. For example Russia just finished delivering a whole slew of these Klub-S missiles to Vietnam who intend to use them to defend their interests in the south china sea.
The cruise missiles that Russia launched this month aren’t even the best in their arsenal, they have an air launched cruise missile with a range of 4500 km. And they’re working on another sea-skimming cruise missile, in collaboration with one of their allies that will to be hypersonic (trials are scheduled for 2017).
Here you can hear precise information about Russian cruise missile capabilities and next phase developments from President Putin himself; view this video posted by the Saker team, turn on subtitles and advance to 9 minutes & 5secs (9:05) and watch till 16:30. You’ll get precise information about these cruise missiles and Russia’s next phase of high technology cruise missile development.
/exclusive-vladimir-putin-interview-to-vladimir-solovyov-eng-subs/
Best regards.
‘Mischief’ Reef? Who says the Exceptionals don’t have a black sense of humour.
All cadre positions in the Western world in general and in the US administration in particular are filled with eternal juveniles – schoolyard pranks being one of their favorite ways of conducting “business”.
I have noticed a pattern over the last year that when the US is blocked in one arena it immediately turns to another arena. Ukraine, Middle East, China (SCS).
It seems while it is actively attacking in one area it is making new plans for another arena.
At the moment Ukraine is quiet, US has been blocked in Syria and likely to settle for pumping arms to the jihadists while it draws up new plans, and is now perhaps turning its attention to the SCS with the destroyer sailing within the 12 mile limit.
all true but the chess moves all appear to be short term fixes that quickly come undone – Iran Russia China with ancillary Syria, Iraq and the BRICS are formidable block
The USA has the old guard as vassals not Partners – they have no energy – coalition of The Yesterdays Fools
I would think that Russia should be asked to negotiate with Vietnam for China.On the one hand we have the US,the country that savaged Vietnam throughout the 1960-70’s.And on the other China,the age old rival of Vietnam for thousands of years.They both want Vietnam on their side (or in China’s case at least neutral).Russia is the only “honest broker” there.She helped Vietnam against the US during the Vietnam War.And has always been friendly to her (plus she doesn’t border Vietnam.So no border issues).I would get some of the Russian Communist Duma deputies to talk with their Communist counterparts in Hanoi on China’s behalf.I’ve noticed Russia has sent some of them to Syria to check on progress there.And since they and Putin agree on the foreign policy needed for Russia.They could be used in all Communist states to further Russia’s interests.Having them go to Vietnam would remind the Vietnamese Communist government of the old times when they were close friends with the USSR.They might be able to negate any turning to the US in Vietnam.And pave the way for a reconciliation between Vietnam and China ahead of XI’s visit.
As too the islands issue.It would be a good idea for China to come up with a plan to “share the wealth” from the islands development. Offer (depending on which island) to share the resources found there with the other countries also claiming the island.That might draw them into agreements with China.And help all the countries involved economies.
For 4.000 years Viet Nam has struggled against attempts by China to take over their land.
Study Viet Nam history… talk with veterans of the American war in Viet Nam…. (1961-1775)…
Numerous wars, numerous incursions by China…. and some done at time Viet Nam was very weak.
There is absolutely no love between the two… and of course USA is trying to turn that to their advantage in every way. But the Vietnamese are very clever and very wise… they overcame the French colonization… and the French were gruesome… they won the war over USA and sent them packing… it is to be hoped that the spirit of freedom and independence remains … and proud Viet Nam does not sell out, does not sell their soul to USA’s big corporation including Monsanto (GMOs) who produced the Agent Orange that killed so many and disabled even more as well as destroyed land for many, many years to come.
chakra
due to the formatting im starting a new thread,
*Present inclusion of these states [seven sisters] are due to British transfer of power to Indians.*
did u bother to ask whether the object of *transfer* agreed to this *transaction* ?
case in point, the naga betrayal
+At a time when the British Government was aiming to grant independence to India , a plan was afoot to keep Nagalim as a “Crown Colony’. The operation, however, did not materialize owing to the vehement objection raised by the Nagas who insisted on complete independence of their nation from Great Britain as well as Hindustan . It thus came to pass that that the British just left the western nagas to their free will”(A. Z. Jami Lotha, 1997, Cry For Justice , p261). At the withdrawal of the British forces from their territory, the Nagas in the British-occupied territory promptly declared their independence on 14th August 1947 and formally merged with the unconquered and un-administered “Free Nagalim”. A plebiscite was organised here in 1951 when 99.9% of the Naga population voted in favour of sovereign independent Nagalim.
When a Naga delegation approached Gandhi in New Delhi in July 1947, he told them ?”Nagas have every right to be independent. …If you do not wish to join the Union of India, nobody will force you to do that. The Congress government will not to do that”. In November1949 when another Naga delegation met C. Rajagopalachari, the first Indian Governor General of India , he reconfirmed the statement of Gandhi in this way ? ” India does not want to deprive the Nagas of their land. Nagas are at full liberty to do as they as they like, either to become part of India , or to be separated, if it would be best for their interest to be isolated”.
But in spite of these assurances from the Indian leaders, India started to pour armed forces into Nagalim in 1954 to conduct an unprecedented genocide and the ‘Naga Problem’ was permanently rooted. +
Denk,
Nobody cares (or almost nobody cares)
Or have you not noticed?
You repeatedly post, or rather, you cut and past the same anti-India points and article links in your posts -like SPAM, going back months on this site.
You can keep posting your anti-India conspiracy theories and it’s makes less and less difference to the readers here as time progresses. Your one topic obsession and lack of objectivity have torpedoed your credibility. It’s like the “boy who cried wolf” syndrome: even if some of what you’re trying to convey may have some truth in it (which I don’t believe), due to your repetition and false-starts, I’ve noticed that people are tuning you out and don’t seem to care anymore what you have to say.
i can always count on u as my diehard loyal fan tho, hehehehe
Not really,
I don’t think you have any fans other than yourself.
Your “hehehe” pretty much gives away your insecurity and ineffectiveness.