Translated and subtitled by Scott Humor
Click “CC” button for English subtitles.
Soon, Belarus won’t be able to make money on re-export to Ukraine oil products they receive from Russia. The restrictions are temporary, but is it so?
As a known saying goes, there is nothing more permanent than temporary. In Minsk, this saying is also, probably, remembered regarding the Moscow’s decision to ban the supply of gasoline, diesel fuel and fuel oil that did not resulted in the Belarusian authorities’ enthusiasm.
“Staring with November, Russia will stop deliveries of gasoline, diesel fuel and fuel oil to Belarus, the restriction will be valid until the end of next year.
The cessation of sales of oil, fuel and gas supplies in excess of volumes required by Belarus for its own consumption has been discussed for a while. Now the decision has been made based on a simple calculation: the new agreements exclude the possibility of “gray” supply schemes of petroleum products within the Union state, which led to lost revenues for the Federal budget of Russia.”
The question seems to be purely economic, but it’s also a reminder that politics is a concentrated expression of economy. It is no secret that saber-rattling Poroshenko in case of an attack on Donbass will require a lot of fuel for the “ATO.”
“According to some reports, Ukraine covered up to 40% of its needs for motor fuel with Russian oil, which was re-exported by Belarus. Advantages for Kiev are obvious: profitable logistics with almost direct deliveries and good prices”.
Agree, the loss of even 1/3 of the volume of cheap fuel is an essential point. Especially when money in the Ukrainian budget isn’t present, and money allocated for continuing war on Donbass by the American sponsors, Poroshenko seeks to pocket to the maximum.
It is one thing to buy cheap fuel from Belarusians, and another thing to buy expensive fuel from the European Union. From where, moreover, much further to the line of contact with the forces of the DPR and LPR, the delivery is more expensive, and logistics of deliveries is more difficult.
In general, Russia’s actions look like a response to the Ukrainian crisis. However, the question remains unsolved: why now? After all, Lukashenko for 4 years profited from the supply of fuel to Kiev, and Moscow allowed this.
Perhaps the religion is the answer. The West provokes a new escalation in Ukraine, making a move by the hands of the Patriarch of Constantinople, who announced the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from the jurisdiction of the ROC. It is no secret that the attempt to implement this decision may result in the raids of churches and monasteries, which will lead to bloody clashes.
The affairs of the ROC concern our state, as the Church is one of its pillars, and the blow to it is an indirect blow to Russia. It is quite possible that after this attack, it was decided to stop handling the Ukrainian regime with kid gloves and to begin its active suffocation.
One year remans till the “Nord stream 2” will start its operations. The European Union needs to survive only one approaching heating season, after which the issue of dependency for energy supplies on the sitting in Kiev American puppets will be removed from the agenda.
The ban on the re-export of oil products for Poroshenko is the first step to his suffocation. Take a notice that the meeting of the Holy Synod of the ROC was held in Minsk for the first time ever.
“…In Minsk, at a meeting of the Holy Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church, it was decided to completely stop the Eucharistic communion with the Patriarchate of Constantinople. This means a break in relations between the Orthodox churches, the first among equal of Constantinople and the largest of Russia.”
In Minsk, they decided to break off communion with the Constantinople crooks, and to forbid Minsk from supplying fuel for the so called “ATO”. Coincidence? I think not.
The moment when the issue of the Kiev regime will be resolved is steadily approaching.
The other side of the coin here is that Russian producers will lose sales volume, on which their profit depended.
Is raising their prices to compensate a feasible option ?
This is not a simple matter, but one which begins a train of consequences and adjustments — throughout the Russian oil and gas industry, within the Belorussian economy, and beyond. We have not heard the last of it.
What about the Power of Siberia lines and all that. Can’t Russia just ship to China instead?
On an unrelated note “удушение” is an amazing word, thanks Ruslan lol
If I am not mistaken the pipeline from Russia to China is also ether nearing completion or is complete. The loss of sales to Belarus will hardly make a blip on the sales graph. Poroshenko is going to get is tit in the wringer. It could not happen to a more deserving psychopath. If the Neo-nazis can be cleansed from the Ukraine, it would not surprise me in the least to see the people of the Ukraine vote to re-join with Russia.
“Russian producers will lose sales volume”
Belarus is only buying Russian oil because it is much cheaper than it should be according to the world market price. This allowed Belarus to resell this excess oil to Ukraine. The fact that Ukraine bought this oil means that it is cheaper than would have been the case had they imported it via Odessa or whatever.
All Russia is really doing is maintaining a subsidy to Belarus and preventing Belarus from exploiting this advantage by re-exporting the oil it does not use itself. Effectively, Russia was subsidising not only Belarus, but Ukraine as well.
I am not sure Belarus has meaningful refining capacity so it is “most likely” (:)) that they get already refined products.
[quote]All Russia is really doing is maintaining a subsidy to Belarus and preventing Belarus from exploiting this advantage by re-exporting the oil it does not use itself. Effectively, Russia was subsidising not only Belarus, but Ukraine as well.[/quote]
What is being overlooked in such one-dimensional views as this is that, in doing so, Russia is subsidizing its petrochemical enterprises also, just as the USA pours vast sums into its war technology corporations. These produce mostly useless junk but keep employment in that area (including education) high. The new ships mostly sink and the new airplanes are unsafe to fly but industrial capacity, quarterly profits (and financial corruption) are unthreatened.
The performance of the Soviet economic system is perhaps a familiar example, in which the disparity between (announced) record agricultural & industrial production figures and what was available in the shops was chronic. But everyone had a job. so everyone complained and made jokes, but there was no real incentive to fix what (in human terms) wasn’t broken.
If Siberian diamonds and gold could be extracted in unlimited quantities and at no cost, countless workers in these industries and the financial system which sustains them would all become unemployed/bankrupt. Collapse and chaos would result.
TTC,
You are overlooking one important factor here. All the Russian energy enterprises are pseudo private, Russian government is a major shareholder, so Russia subsidizes them anyway, if they lose money which they don’t.
With Belarus, the story is complicated. They (Belarus and Russia) seem have “lover’s quarrel” for quite some time now. The way I see it Lukashenko wants all the goodies on the cheep, as well as by providing oil to Ukraine he actually keeps the fake government in Kiev on the life support. So, Putin has had a haggling game with Lukashenko before. I guess now he is issuing ultimatum: join Russia or take a hike. Lukashenko is quite aware that without Russia he will not last very long, because Poles want his skin and have been breathing down his neck for a long time. Lukashenko knows it, because he goes through this exercise every time he has elections as he has to deal with opposition supported by the Poles.
Ukraine will have to buy oil from the west now. Which gets it from….??? Right, mostly from Russia! :)
Just like Poland is happily doing by buying an overpriced(twice the price?) LNG from USofA. This is also, another reason for more sanctions on Russia, which is an attempt to force Russia to subsidize and support an unfriendly Ukrainian government.
But now, they will not be able to buy on the cheap. Ukraine will pay world prices for more/all of its oil.
wow Scott – that was superb- thank you so much – I love Ruslan Ostashko – he really calls the crooks by their real name. There are many – walking among us even that deserve that name. I can think of a few – but I am unaware of the politics of Eastern Europe sadly.
Yes thanks Scott for the translation.
Another noose around Ukraine today as VVP signed a sanctions decree targeting Ukraine:
http://tass.com/economy/1027197?_ga=2.260403085.1260607992.1540238344-895401050.1540238344
“The decree notes that this decision was made “in response to Ukraine’s unfriendly actions….The Russian government has been instructed to draw up lists of individuals and legal entities that the special economic measures are targeted at, as well as to determine “special economic measures applicable to individuals and legal entities……”
Lets see how these take effect in addition to the Belarussian oil tap being turned off.
It seems their troops firing on Donbass has also increased
http://tass.com/world/1027269?_ga=2.265719567.1260607992.1540238344-895401050.1540238344
Interesting piece on Russian oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Are-Claims-Of-Peak-Oil-Production-In-Russia-Overblown.html
Watching as things have been happening recently, it is obvious the zionazi-gays have moved to a new, higher stage of aggression against Russia, China and their allies. The way the zpc/nwo colonies have been militarizing and hyperventilating is reminiscent of the german nazis of the 1930’s. One can see this freakshow is getting prepared for full scale war and is carefully laying the groundwork, ramping up provocations, pretexts and propaganda, while retooling their war machine. In response, Russia and friends are making adjustments to pre-empt this zionazi-gay aggression before it reaches another Sep. 1939 stage. Or, actually, before it reaches the stage of the 1938 Munich level.
The zionazi-gays have been ramping up the aggression from their ukronazi attack dogs. Russian intelligence may have info of worse aggression being prepared. Cutting off their access to cheap Russian energy will work to hinder ukronazi mobilization, making their logistics more difficult.
Also, it wont help porkshank’s popularity when people in the ukraine have to pay more for fuel with money many are very short of.
They will surely try……or pretend to try. However, death is a strong deterrent. And Nazi panzer divisions have morbid recollections of the consequences of running short of fuel.
It seems mainly like huffing and puffing to keep up appearances amongst themselves and their Euro and A-Z masters…………. as Desperation Increases and Time Runs Out.
Meanwhile I foresee this eventual psychological/spiritual resolution to the plight of the suffering Ukrainian population:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Return_of_the_Prodigal_Son_(Rembrandt)
“Russia is feminine.” my wife explained. So how does the metaphor work, with the forgiving father??
Answer: Take note of the description of the artists treatment of the right arm and hand…..in comparison to the left upper limb.
“In the painting, the son has returned home in a wretched state from travels in which he has wasted his inheritance and fallen into poverty and despair. He kneels before his father in repentance, wishing for forgiveness and a renewed place in the family, having realized that even his father’s servants had a better station in life than he. His father receives him with a tender gesture. His hands seem to suggest mothering and fathering at once; the left appears larger and more masculine, set on the son’s shoulder, while the right is softer and more receptive in gesture.[3] Standing at the right is the prodigal son’s older brother, who crosses his hands in judgment; in the parable he objects to the father’s compassion for the sinful son:
But he answered his father, “Behold, these many years I have served you, and I never disobeyed a commandment of yours, but you never gave me a goat, that I might celebrate with my friends. But when this, your son, came, who has devoured your living with prostitutes, you killed the fattened calf for him.”
—Luke 15:29–30, World English Bible
The father explains, “But it was appropriate to celebrate and be glad, for this, your brother, was dead, and is alive again. He was lost, and is found” (Luke 15:32).”
Some spirit survives even Wickedpedia!
Actually it’s not that Russia is feminine but rather the West is misandric, where everything bad/destructive/oppressive is labeled as masculine while everything positive is considered feminine, so from such a standard Russia could be considered feminine, but otherwise I’d actually call Russia masculine.
Bro. Do not take “feminine” lightly. My Polish friend was telling me about one set of his neighbors. The guy (neighbor), who lost his leg to whatever “accident” used to come home from work drunk almost every night. The wife who hated his state of intoxication used to break their chairs over his head resulting in his regular visits to the emergency dept.
Oh yes I almost forgot. Another neighbor of his, who was actually from Vilnus, used to come home extremely drunk and one day his wife got so pissed to the point that during their “argument” he jumped out of his second story balcony in order to escape her “argumentation”.
I actually did not know whether I should laugh of feel sadness hearing those stories about “feminine”.
Interesting. Two vague dots came to my mind wondering if they might connect to this?
One dot was the talk a few months back about whether Belarus and Russia might make a deal where Belarus rejoins Russia or generally has less independence.
The other dot was a recent statement that I think I heard from some NATO guy talking about Belarus as a possible future member of NATO.
Not quite sure how they connect, but as I was reading this, those were the dots that occurred to me. Thoughts wondering whether Russia is now deliberately cutting what had been a revenue source to some in Belarus of making petroleum sales that hurt Russia and aided NATO? Did Russia just get sick and tired of watching this happen and decide that now was the time to end it? Or is this a move with longer ramifications towards the future status of Belarus?
I keep having to note that all the young people I have met as they travel and live in Thailand are hostile to Russia, and consider Russia to be an oppressor, whereas they see the West as liberator. They don’t like the USSR and and definitely do not want to be part of Russia. Despite at least one of their parents unhappiness in Belarus’ current economic model.
As my friend recently said, Russia drained Belarus, the way empires do. Given that Russia has been giving it an excellent price, and that the USSR saved it from the Nazis, this looks like the height of ingratitude, or more accurately, the triumph of Western propaganda. In any case, the idea of Belarus returning to Russia elicits a hostile reaction, at least among the youth I have met.
It might be significant that you met them not in Belarus but in Thailand, which appears to have the reputation of being the sex-tourist’s destination-of-choice.
According to Stalker Zone, the head of the new church in ukraine might be ‘Archbishop Daniel (Vladimir Zelinsky) [who] was born in Western Ukraine. In 1996 he emigrated to the US where he studied in the Catholic University of America. In 2006 Daniel was appointed as an officer of the US Army (Chaplain Corps).’ Note the part of catholic involvement…and of course US army officer…
http://www.stalkerzone.org/a-us-army-officer-is-in-contention-to-lead-ukraines-autocephalous-church/
Good move. Lukashenko, just like the presidents of Ukraine wants to benefit from Russia’s handouts na protection, while he is trying to play friends with the West.
“One year remains till the “Nord stream 2” will start its operations. The European Union needs to survive only one approaching heating season, after which the issue of dependency for energy supplies on the sitting in Kiev American puppets will be removed from the agenda.”
It makes sense. Delay any major actions against Ukraine and against ISIS until Nord stream 2 can be built. Everyone talks about Ukraine, but what about Poland? In another year, will the oil and gas pipelines from Russia to Ukraine and to Poland be turned off?
So the Ukrainian and Polish people have a choice: Either buy American gas at double the price of Russian gas; or buy Russian gas at a huge markup directly from the Germans.
you need to look at the US withdrawal from the INF treaty and its implications for Russian security. Please be impartial – as much as the fans in Russia are great !!!
Being impartial, I’d say it doesn’t really make much of a difference, when has a treaty or agreement ever stopped the USA from doing whatever they want?The only reason the USA hasn’t attempted to destroy Russia through direct military means is the simple fact Russia can retaliate in kind.
I can understand the need to deal with the problems caused by Kiev, but at the same time it’s probably not a good idea for the RF to throw their weight around, too much, with a country like Belarus, with which the RF has relatively good relations.
I am a foreign reader, but with my intuition I dare to say that I do not trust Lukashenko at all.
An interesting account in RT today:
Last month, Russia and Iran agreed a deal allowing the Islamic Republic to evade the US ban on oil exports, claims Israel National News Hadashot. Iran would export crude oil to Russia via the Caspian Sea, Russia would refine the oil in its refineries and export the products worldwide, reported the media citing a document by the Israeli Foreign Ministry.
“Russia doesn’t need the oil and it would be subject to sanctions,” Joe McMonigle, former chief of staff at the US Department of Energy who is now at Hedgeye Research told the FT. “So far US sanctions on Russia have been targeted but violating the Iran sanctions would come with big consequences.”
https://www.rt.com/business/442013-us-iran-sanctions-oil-russia/