Ok, first the necessary caveats:
1) Kerry and Lavrov already had a deal on Syria, also made in Geneva, but then the USA reneged.
2) The EU also had a deal on the Ukraine with Yanukovich, who was overthrown literally the next day.
3) The USA, NATO and the EU have lied, cheated, mis-represented, twisted and simply betrayed pretty much every promise which they made to Russia ever since Russia freed itself from the yoke of Communism in 1991.
4) The USA probably has as much control over the Ukrainian crazies a la Right Sector as it does over al-Qaeda, tenuous at best.
5) Putin does have a lot of “street cred” in the eastern Ukraine, but it is far from being infinite.
6) The USA does have full control over the Ukrainian oligarchs, but they, in turn, are clearly in a struggle with the nationalist crazies who probably have more firepower and crowd muscle than these oligarchs.
To these caveats, I also want to add a few basic reminders because from the comments I have seen on my previous initial post, a lot of you are over-reacting to this latest developments. So, just for context, please keep in mind that
1) The Kiev regime has proven that it does not have the means to crush the rebellion in the East.
2) For reasons I have already mentioned many times, NATO and the US do not have a military option in the Ukraine.
3) Western sanctions are not significantly hurting Russia and they are very significantly help Putin’s personal popularity and reforms program.
4) Time is not on the side of the regime in Kiev as the West cannot rescue the Ukraine; Russia can, but will not do so as long as the regime in power remains both illegitimate and crazy.
5) Popular militia can which materialize overnight can also disappear overnight.
6) Until now Kiev has rejected any negotiations with the East.
7) Kiev hold tens or even hundreds of anti-Fascist activists in its jails.
8) The population which would suffer from open warfare is in the East.
Ok, now that we have set the context, let us look at what happened today:
1) Kiev has agreed to negotiate with the East.
2) All illegal armed groups will have to disarm (that was already agreed between Yanukovich and the EU).
3) OSCE monitors will be dispatched to the East to monitor the situation.
4) Kiev has committed to legal reforms for greater autonomy.
5) The Crimea has not even been discussed.
6) The EU has accepted Putin’s proposal to discuss gas deliveries.
7) Nobody will face prosecution except for major crimes.
Now, in my opinion, very little has in fact been agreed to, and all that has been agreed to is vague, ambiguous and lacks any verifiable landmarks to achieve within a clear timetable.
So I very much disagree with those who see that as a sell-out by Russia or, even more so, who call a truly top-notch diplomat with fantastic diplomatic skills all sorts of bad names.
Furthermore, and that is the only big news, the USA, the EU and Kiev have agreed to negotiate with Russia, something they had categorically refused to do in the past (except for the EU agreement with Yanukovich which lasted less than a day and which the US never committed to). As for Crimea, it is simply not part of any negotiations and will just remain a great opportunity for western politicians to spew some more hot air when they feel the need to.
The illegal formations and their weapons? I suppose that if things go well they will very gradually vacate some buildings which are only needed for symbolic reasons, as for their weapons, they will hide them (and use extra time to get more!). None of the activists will be detained, at least not legally and, frankly, I see no other option at this point for the Kiev authorities then to release the anti-Nazi activists they are holding. So far, the Russian speakers, far from vacating any building, have seized one more.
The sanctions? Those in place will stay, the West will make lots of empty threats about more sanctions if these evil Russkies don’t behave, Putin will assume not only that no sanctions will be lifted, but also that many more will be introduced (that serves his economic reform agenda).
Crimea? It will see a huge economic boom starting this summer with a wave of “patriotic tourism” and *massive* investments from the Russian business community which will now get a chance to bid and invest in all the neglected infrastructure the Ukies left after them and all the numerous millionaire mansions the Ukrainian oligarchs have built. Crimea will become the “jewel of the Black Sea” and the economic powerhouse of southern Russia. Military contracts, huge ones, will begin pouring in (the Russian Navy already ordered 5 ships today).
The Ukraine? It will get poorer, more unstable, totally dependent on western emergency aid which will barely let the regime stay in power unless the revolutionaries come to their senses or tell Uncle Sam to buzz off. Either way, as long as the rump-Ukraine remains anti-Russia (nevermind a Nazi Banderastan) it will remain a bankrupt failed state.
Russia? It will continue exactly on the same course and adapt its policies depending on the exact ratio of sanity/delusion it will detect in its “western partners”.
So today agreement is really neither good, nor bad, in fact – it’s no big deal at all. Either it will be as short-lived as the agreement between the EU and Yanukovich, or it will be slowly implemented with lots of zig-zags on the way. Regardless of which option proves true, it will not affect the deep dynamics which have been set in motion which have now acquired a momentum so powerful that probably nobody can stop it.
The attempt to put down the eastern Ukraine appears to have petered out and the chance to turn the Donbass into a “East Banderastan” lead by a clique of neo-Nazi freaks are as small as ever. In other words, chances are the at least the current phase of the Ukrainian civil war is over.
All in all, that is pretty good news, I think.
The Saker
Nailed it and the news around the web is anything but sane. Thanks
Meanwhile, the word on the street is that the Bulgarians suddenly got balls and told the EU to go and make passionate love to its rectum. Apparently, the Europarliament’s resolution on stopping the construction of the Soth Stream pilpeline is contrary to Bulgarian national interests which, as it turns out, trump all EU bullcrap. Kinda interesting to see how this plays out.
Ukraine and the grand chessboard
By Pepe Escobar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-170414.html
Ukraine and the grand chessboard
By Pepe Escobar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-170414.html
A recruiter is trying to organize the Maydan squatters to go to Donetsk.
They refuse, even though he says that people there have no weapons, and that there just a few drunkards make all the mess.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=l-ZnvX00yd4
Saker,
Thank you. If Western leaders had 1/10 your analytical skills and 1/100 of your conscience and morality, we’d all be infinitely better off.
Greetings from Singapore:
Pleased to see that we agree on the actual meaning of this Geneva agreement.
Time is on Putin’s side.
Hello,
If I may leave my comment to your analysis;
1) Kiev has agreed to negotiate with the East.
Delaying tactic
2) All illegal armed groups will have to disarm (that was already agreed between Yanukovich and the EU).
They are legal(ized)
3) OSCE monitors will be dispatched to the East to monitor the situation. Sure. Been there done that.
4) Kiev has committed to legal reforms for greater autonomy. Yeah, right
5) The Crimea has not even been discussed. Elephant.Chickenshits.
6) The EU has accepted Putin’s proposal to discuss gas deliveries. ‘proposal to discuss’???
7) Nobody will face prosecution except for major crimes. Whitewash.It is criminal.
Best Regards,
wlodek3
We do not really know what has been discussed and agreed upon during the many many many hours of meeting today. All we have are a meager statement and press conferences for the world to see. Just designed for both sides to transport the desired message.
I wonder what will the OSCE will do exactly if it gets there in numbers and how that would affect the situation.
Also, what happened today at all in the south eastern Ukraine? Not much?
Another thing thing, which parts, or Oblasts, are going to be involved in the movement? Only the south-east, or as well the north-eastern parts, those who have a russian border as well?
-yt
Thanks for taking the time to explain it all. Sounds like a very sound analysis. It was obvious the Russians cant control the antimaydana, though they might have some influence over some of the leaders that have popped up among the people. It’s also obvious the zionazis wont disband the off the shelf death squads (the banderivtsy), be cause, like in Central America, death squads are how the fascist west does population control. Probably the only area I would disagree with your analysis is about how much control the Israeli-Americans have over the banderivtsy. I think they have probably quite a bit, given their long time contacts, their documented methods of operating these fascists in eastern Europe and also similar ones in Latin America. At least the important leaders will be owned.
Here is a pleasant little demo:
55 тысяч россиян изъявили желание попасть в американский черный список (55,000 Russians expressed a desire to get into the U.S. blacklist)
http://lifenews.ru/news/131449
(auto trans) “In Moscow, the U.S. Embassy activists held a rally and gave Barack Obama signature Russian citizens who disagree with his policies.
In Moscow, the U.S. Embassy picket civic activists Internet project USA go away.
12 people with banners in their hands, on which is written: “a united front against U.S. sanctions,” “Obama, hands off our citizens,” “Sanctions – not the solution, and violation of rights” – came to the U.S. Embassy in Moscow and captured with a list of people who have requested via the website USA go away to make themselves blacklisted USA. In the black boxes are 55 sheets with the names of thousands of Russians.
Initiator of the action Artem Kir’yanov told about the purpose of the event.
– We wanted to show that Russians strongly disagree with the use of U.S. sanctions. We came here to convey a signature of our citizens through the embassy against Barack Obama – said Artem Kir’yanov. – We strive to show ordinary Americans that Russian citizens are outraged by U.S. policy toward not only Russia but the whole world. And we have to prove them wrong.
Authors of the project believe that the freezing of assets and a ban on entry into the United States show that Russia is on the right track. Anyone who outraged the U.S. government’s actions, who does not like Russians determination to defend their compatriots in the Crimea, could put his signature to the Declaration on the site.”
вот так
Greetings from Singapore:
We got 539 signatures. We need more!
Think about it on this holiday and holy week.
Agreed on the concrete accomplishment being release of political prisoners – if it happens. Not sure how that impacts ongoing persecutions of people not yet arrested e.g. Tsarev.
The junta has said the “anti terror” operation continues, irrespective of agreement which they take only as a “suggestion”, so we’ll see how far this actually goes. Resistance forces on the ground need to consolidate their position, and continue hedging out junta forces. Mariupol needs support, and Odessa Nikolaev Kherson need to get their act together ASAP.
I can’t see how this negotiation format can conscionably be continued, Russia vs. Junta + US + EU? The Resistance has just as much legitimacy as the Junta, if not more, so they need to be at the table as well. The idea that Russia can negotiate on Resistance’s behalf, while the Junta represents itself and has both US and EU backing it, is a sham. No serious lawyer can claim the junta is legitimate, even NATO-centric mainstream Western site “Lawfare” had a piece explaining the lack of legitimacy of the junta. …I don’t see why the US should be party to negotiations, although if they continue playing puppet master, I guess they are the defacto power to deal with. I don’t see why both the EU and US need to be involved, just because the EU is largely a US-NATO tool, more constructive would be involving specific EU countries who actually have space between their position and the US: Germany, Austria?, Bulgaria? (if US is kicked out of format, EU representation makes more sense)
…”yoke of Communism”. Russia now is a great country (as ever) but it is no match to Soviet Russia. We know all the problems, but even so Soviet Russia was a beacon of hope. In my opinion, Russia will never be the new kid on the capitalist block. No deal.
Excellent reading, Saker, you gave me hope again. I was beginning to despair.
I agree, though, pretty much anything the US “agrees” to, it will renege on very soon. The EU isn’t much better, is it? I hope the Eastern Ukrainians prepare accordingly. These summit and UN meetings must be very frustrating for the Russians- hard for them to find anyone willing to discuss anything in good faith.
A couple of questions:
1) The disarmament of “illegal” groups. Would this include the gangs of thugs coming out of Kiev as well? Given the shambles the country’s judiciary must be in right now, and the matter of the illegitimacy of the present government in Kiev, who is to decide what is legal? As for imprisoned anti-Kiev protestors, are the judges honest enough and capable of ensuring justice?
2) You mentioned “all the numerous millionaire mansions the Ukrainian oligarchs have built”– are you saying that the resident oligarchs left and abandoned their palaces? That would make me smile- have they really?
Saker – thank you. This was my take on the news also. I wasn’t aware of many of the details you spell out, but I could see the one big gain, namely the public message that ALL parties are binding themselves to in the eyes of the world: stop violence and de-escalate.
An excellent step forward, and all the rest is relative and “to be determined”.
One other point. I thought Putin’s honest response yesterday in his public Q&A about the green men in Crimea was wonderful – not at all foolish as some have claimed. He told the truth, carefully but not evasively I think, that there were 20,000 (?) Ukraine troops and multiple weapons depots in Crimea and all of this could have brought trouble to the Crimean people if activated. So Russian soldiers quietly neutralized this possibility and allowed the free expression of the people to take place. The audience applauded after this and so did I, sitting here in the US.
Russia seems from the beginning to have worked through certain priorities one at a time, each one being about safeguarding from violence and harm first, and only then moving to more finessed matters.
This is all pretty satisfactory. I have great trust in the Russian abilities to move this process masterfully through the political logistics ahead.
Well, I was surprised to read some negative comments about Lavrov. He is a most talented and skillful diplomat.
re: disarmament of illegal groups, that should include the National Guard, the other government organized militias, as well as Right Sector, and the Oligarch militias. The cou itself is illegal, and all all laws and orders they issue are also illegla, so the formation of National Guard, etc, is also illegal.
Otherwise is accepting the coup’s imposition of power NOT returning to some pre-conflict pre-illegal armed groups state of affairs.
The good thing about the Resistance not being involved in talks is that if they don’t follow thru with it, it’s no sweat off their backs. I can’t really see the Junta following thru on their end – they have announced as such (that anti-terror ops in SE will continue), so let’s be realistic, this agreement was mostly a non-event.
BTW, I saw that Finland had vetoed a passage in the EU statement on the Ukraine (before latest agreement) which was blaming Russia for the situation in the Ukraine’s SE.
“3) OSCE monitors will be dispatched to the East to monitor the situation.”
Aarrrg! Their role? To legitimize the Kiev hunta in the East of Ukraine (effectively, in whole of Ukraine), no more, no less!
In effect, Moscow recognized the Kiev hunta as legitimate while delegitimizing the grassroots movement in the East!?
Once in, the OSCE will not leave so easily – particularly wehn the stakes are so high.
This scenario was used in the Yugoslav conflicts, & its results are much too well known.
I am only saying, this is one of many such “deals” coming in the future, while the other side is getting stronger until it feels strong enough to put down the weakened (pro)Russian side.
If video below is valid, here is already the first trick played by the ziofascist:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8STXJG2mtAs
At the end, I can only hope that I am wrong.
Great analysis. I find myself keep coming here to get a dose of optimism among other things. Reading commentaries in various sources on the Geneva Talks really brings me down. Not many seem to see it like you do, Saker. Time will tell I guess…
Я
This is an excellent analysis. Thank you.
– Abraham
The game isn’t over but Putin is winning.
The war in Syria and the crisis in Ukraine signal the end of Anglo-American hyper-power. The dream of a unipolar new world order is dead.
With Crimea in the bag, Putin stands to gain nothing by taking direct responsibility for any part of Ukraine. Unlike the U.S., Putin understands that discretion is the better part of valour.
Russia will maintain cultural power over Ukraine in the same way the U.S. maintains cultural power over Canada or Australia. European and Russian civilization will continue to converge especially at the level of internationalists and elites.
Despite their best and most desperate efforts, neocon zionists have failed in their effort to drive a wedge between Russia and Europe. Trans-Atlantic bonds will first weaken, then fray as it becomes clear that North America will be a competitor to Europe with widely divergent interests while Russia will be a friend with much more convergent interests.
I do not underestimate the willingness of Western elites and other lunatic gangsters to throw a wrench into the works anytime they preceive some short term advantage. This will benifit Russia since they are now seen by everyone as more reliable and trustworthy partners. Putin has established the template by which all future statemen will be judged when dealing with the West.
Although it will take a long time for international institutions to catch up, the new multipolar world order is now firmly established. There is no going back. I don’t blame Putin for wanting to shore up his gains at this moment precisely. His position vis a vis China has actually grown stronger after this agreement than it would have been if a shooting war got underway. This will increase the likelihood of a good deal for both Russia and China in upcoming negotiations over pipelines and energy even as NATO and corrupted Euro elites continue their moning and bluster.
On the downside, I do not see the events of this crisis leading to a large scale rethinking of human behaviour in line with taking actions necessary to save our species. For the really big problems we are still kicking the can far away down the road.
In the short term we will remain in serious jeopardy from Anglo-American establishment psychopaths who remain deeply entrenched. Americans are too pharmaceutically soaked to mount any serious resistance to their sadistic oppressors. Their belly’s are likely to remain full so they will continue to be distracted for the forseeable future, I’m sorry to say.
I wonder where China these days is? Could that be that Russia has folded because China is going through a credit crunch as we speak? Its exports were down 18% in February and 6.6% in March, home values dropped 7.7%, new property construction fell 25.2%! Police is confronting investors demanding repayment. Perhaps, China is less interested in bringing the US empire down at the moment being too busy with its own upcoming population unrest.
Just a thought…
Я
One more thing…
As a Canadian I want to apologize for the disgusting behaviour of our media and politicians. I can promise you they are not reflective of the opnions or dispositions of a large majority of the people I speak to every day.
6 days a week I work in a different public spaces and speak to literally dozens of people from all backrounds and ages. I can confirm that the anger and resentment towards the ruling elites has never been more palpable. Few people are closely following the events in Ukraine but a large majority of the people who are have come to understand that everything in the media is a lie.
Anger and frustration with the gangsters who are pillaging this country and its people is evident, for example, amongst supporters of Toronto’s crack smoking mayor. They understand that Ford has personal problems but they believe he is less of a crimminal than the more polished liars and thieves who normally get elected to political office.
I have also run into several Ukrainian Canadians who have all expressed some level of support or understanding towards Putin. Considering the propaganda to which we are constantly exposed I believe this is a strong indication that the credibility of the zionist gangsters who control this country is begining to disintegrate.
@Where-Wolf
“With Crimea in the bag, Putin stands to gain nothing by taking direct responsibility for any part of Ukraine.”
What I still don’t get is how is it beneficial to Russia to allow NATO into Ukraine (because this is what’ll most likely follow)? Wasn’t the whole thing about not letting NATO in?
Я
The latest from Putin:
Putin reminds that force in Ukraine remains on table, as NATO beefs up.
During his annual public call-in show, the Russian president said he would send troops into Ukraine to ‘protect’ locals if necessary.
“We know quite well that we must do our best to protect their rights and help them independently decide their fate and we will struggle for that,” Mr. Putin said during his annual call-in television show. “I remind you that the Federation Council of Russia [the upper house of Parliament] empowered the president to use the armed forces in Ukraine.”
http://news.yahoo.com/putin-reminds-force-ukraine-remains-table-nato-beefs-130024419.html
Also keep in mind that of the “4 parties”, Russia is the third in terms of power, not second or first.
Russian partisans respond by saying “we have nukes!” OK, what do you have if nukes aren’t going to be used? A military and economy 30 to 40 years behind the West, and a smaller population. Some uncertain arrangements with the Chinese. That’s all.
The Olympics was Putin’s attempt to be accepted by the world order on his own terms. He can see how that turned out.
Now he is going for something far more significant than the quixotic “Eurasian Union”, he is going for the destruction of the petrodollar. Here he can do a great deal more damage to the West than the senile elites of London-NY-DC can comprehend.
Here he can rally a significant chunk of the world’s population to an alternative financial order that favors producers over consumers.
He does care about the Donbas, but this recent escalation was ahead of his timeline; essentially it was a trap set by NATO to draw Putin into a blunder that would justify crippling sanctions and even more military pressure on his western flank. The people of the Donbas gave him leverage, and in time they will be part of Russia, while Ukraine is mired in turmoil. I’m talking months and years, not decades here.
Yes the West will cheat on the minutiae of the agreement, but the people of the Donbas hold the trump card in terms of a referendum and secession from Ukraine. Use it.
While the majority of S-E and Russia supporters consider this agreement as “sell out” by Russia, the amazing thing is that apparently a lot of “maidummies” actually consider it as a “sell out” by US and EU (!)
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/675700.html
The agreement doesn’t say anything about Crimea, pulling out Russian troops that they really believe are operating in S-E o_O , doesn’t paint Russia as aggressor, pretty much doesn’t include anything the nationalistic lunatics were adamant on. Poor saps now feel “betrayed” by the west and angry at the current junta, that as they think just handed S-E to Russia on a silver platter. And they already voice the suggestions to install a new junta, more loyal to ideas of “ukie revolution”.
So, forget the S-E, that, ta-ta, surprise!, doesn’t have any intention of upholding an agreement none of their representatives signed (http://putnik1.livejournal.com/3059736.html), the junta might now find itself between a rock and and a hard place with the growing discontent among nationalists in Galicia. Meanwhile, the prices are soaring and there’s already a shortage in some medications available in drug stores, like insulin…
Saker,
First time posting. Thanks for your interesting viewpoints including Pepe Escobar, in RT. One should also watch Pepe in RT after reading “Making sense of the latest Kerry Lavrov deal”.
While the majority of S-E and Russia supporters consider this agreement as “sell out” by Russia, the amazing thing is that apparently a lot of “maidummies” actually consider it as a “sell out” by US and EU (!)
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/675700.html
The agreement doesn’t say anything about Crimea, pulling out Russian troops that they really believe are operating in S-E o_O , doesn’t paint Russia as aggressor, pretty much doesn’t include anything the nationalistic lunatics were adamant on. Poor saps now feel “betrayed” by the west and angry at the current junta, that as they think just handed S-E to Russia on a silver platter. And they already voice the suggestions to install a new junta, more loyal to ideas of “ukie revolution”.
So, forget the S-E, that, ta-ta, surprise!, doesn’t have any intention of upholding an agreement none of their representatives signed (http://putnik1.livejournal.com/3059736.html), the junta might now find itself between a rock and and a hard place with the growing discontent among nationalists in Galicia. Meanwhile, the prices are soaring and there’s already a shortage in some medications available in drug stores, like insulin…
So what happens if two weeks from now the eastern Ukrainians fail to deliver weapons to the Junta, or fail to genuflect to the leaders of the coup?
I suspect that at that point Kerry will turn around and blame Russia for failing to control its proxies in southern Ukraine.
Regardless of the facts on the ground I believe this is the likely next step in the propaganda wars. The US and its proxies will continue to disregard this agreement as they have disregarded all prior agreements, they will blame Russia for this failure, and this position will be blindly parroted by the western media.
The fundamental problem is that the US wants a failed state to exist in order to drive a wedge between the EU and Russia and inhibit any further economic integration and association between the two. In doing so the US is also seeking to inhibit the creation of a transcontinental trading block that would extend from Europe to China. This is the true foreign policy goal of the US in this issue; I an see no other justification for its actions.
Where-Wolf, thank you for your encouraging words about Canadians. I am a Russian Canadian and I feel extremely isolated and frustrated these days. I wish I had like-minded people I can talk to in my social circle.
Few years ago I co-founded a Transition Town in my city north of Toronto. We have great people there who understand all issues such as peak oil, energy, resource wars, etc. However, I had to step down from the steering committee because of many family commitments, a demanding job and an exhausting daily commute to Toronto.
Since then I have lost touch with people who share my views and help me stay sane in this crazy word. Sad…
I wonder where you find all this understanding Canadians? Please send some my way! I am desperate!
I am also glad you brought up the Rob Ford’s media lynching. No one around me seem to get what was going on. It disgusted me from the beginning how it was hyped up to the point of ridiculousness. I am no fan of Rob but the more the mob tries to lynch him the more support he gets from me.
Cheers,
Я
I think you’re naive Saker, Kiev will use their morale boost/protester demoralization to crush the “terrorists”, while Russia will still get blamed/sanctioned because some will still resist and Kiev can safely renege on the deals.
Western banks still have too many Russian oligarchs by the balls I’m afraid.
Really nice and funny article. I have enjoed reading it:
http://rt.com/op-edge/west-leaders-ukraine-democracy-600/
I also think it’s too premature to call this agreement a “sell out” by Russia. In every war there’s tactics, but there’s also a strategy, a more distant perspective to consider. Besides, Russians better than anyone know that lost battle doesn’t equal lost war, and understand the concept of tactical retreat and luring an enemy into a trap :) And above all, president’s pretty damn straitforward broadcasting of the country’s position for the whole world to hear > diplomat’s wishy-washy diplomatic language ^_~
The Saker,
If you haven’t already read it I would recommend the article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10771069/US-financial-showdown-with-Russia-is-more-dangerous-than-it-looks-for-both-sides.html
Although I don’t always agree with his views, Evans-Pritchard is a good and respectful journalist.
Я
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBcGw8zEH2o&list=UUukW9fbX4m5MpOmQ2M5isVg
Controlled right wingers, led by J.R. Nyquist (just think of the most rabid anti-Semite you know and substitute ‘Russians’ for ‘the Jews’) freaking out over the growing ties between the Roman Catholics and Russian Orthodox Church. Nyquist of course thinks the USSR ‘faked its own death’ to trick the West.
Everything Nyquist says about Putin and the Kremlin leadership applies to most of the leaders in the West.
I mostly agree with your conclusions. Lavrov is a highly skilled diplomat and would not give away anything he did not have to, and also would not give away something for nothing. There are two minor points at which I felt the meeting was a failure; one, it got Russia at the table with the Ukrainian government, thereby implicitly recognizing it as legitimate when it is not. Two, it allowed the Americans to bluster and threaten again as if they were in charge of the process and had dragged Russia to the table.
Mitigation for these points is as follows – implied recognition of the soi-disant Ukrainian government does not matter now. It has been rejected by the entire southeast and is in a domestic struggle for its life that it likely will not win, and implied legitimacy will not help it put down the rebellion. Although it has been given a lot of latitude by the west that Yanukovych did not get, it is still not going to be permitted to use military forces to resolve state domestic problems; that is a war crime. Letting the USA swagger about like it is the head honcho is also basically harmless; as you have said, they categorically refused to deal with Russia on this and now they have had to reverse themselves. Again.
Federalization is not a matter for imposition by foreign governments – which is not to say that has never been done – and just because it was not agreed upon in this session does not mean it is off the table as a solution. If the east continues to press for a national referendum, as I believe it will, and that referendum is legitimized by OSCE observers and its results indicate only autonomy will keep the east in the corral, federalization is still very much a possibility. But that’s a matter for Ukrainians to decide. If the east remains unsatisfied, the central government may have no option or there will be a return to protests.
Hopefully the central government will not take advantage of the projected period of quiet to implant militia units in eastern oblasts so that they can prevent further uprisings, because I believe it has been established to a fare-thee-well that the people have a right to demonstrate and wave flags and shout slogans.
I have never had the impression that Mr Saker is a trained analyst of political events. He’s a trained analyst of military field intelligence, he told us that. I shall never bother to read anything ”political’ here in future since it will inevitably degenerate into the usual homoerotic adulation of the magnificent Vlad and his pectoral muscles, while the Donbas is reconquered ruthlessly and agonisingly, town by town, by Nazi goons, just like Yugoslavia, where ‘the New Russia’ first displayed its pathetic cowardice, and these propagandists like Saker, paid I assume otherwise surely it would be a very tedious task, pretend he is a mighty strategist.
Hey Rowan Berkeley
I would agree with Demian over @ Moon of Alabama where he gave you some good advice. In case you forgot, his exact words were:
“I urge you to get psychiatric therapy before it is too late”.
Dear Saker,
Thank you for your excellent analysis, I was thinking along the same lines when the news about the Geneva talks turned up yesterday – though more to reassure myself that not all is lost …
And I think that there is one more asset that Putin has gained by his clever diplomacy whatever the outcome: The western propaganda machine will have to rise its voice some decibels more because now Lavrow and Putin showed that they do not hinder any peaceful solution.
Yesterday the censorship of our journals let pass only the most stupid mob in the comments sections. Were they afraid that just this would happen? Then the headlines were only about the disarmament of the “separatists”, but very soon afterwards came comments that the disarmament would also apply to The Sturmabteilung or SA (German for “Storm department”, usually translated as “stormtroop(er)s, Wikipedia )– sorry, I think the German word is the only right one.
When something like this unfolds so slowly we are in danger of loosing heart. We admire the Russians for their patience and straightforwardness – that is at least what I can tell from what the 70% of the Germans think who are being called Putinfans, or sometimes in true German form “Vaterlandsverräter” ….
Greetings
Angelika
And here is a hilariously good satire: http://lastpub.at/lpglossshow.php?num=13 (its in German). A good laugh helps …
oh yeah, there are some guys who envy Putin’s pectorals, and even tend to mock some shirtless photos of him while on holidays in the country. HA HA
But, even bigger than his pectorals are his brains and his cojones ;)
I love him.
He is the only statist in the world today deserving such a title.
And this is a sound political analysis of mine, wether someone believes it or not. LOL
.
Don’t Panic!
Mr. Andrey Illarionov, ex-adviser to Putin, criticizes Kerry – Lavrov deal. Comments are in Russian but main idea is very simple: Ukraine is betrayed by the West.
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/675700.html
Thanks a lot for nice blog.
Crazy Ivan says…
The Saker, I spend whole hour yesterday deep in the night dissecting your text word for word as I couldn’t believe my eyes.
I wanted write about it but it would take it 3 hours at least, the more so I’m not fluent in English so I ditched it.
I ask you only one question.
Where in your text you wrote about PEOPLE of Eastern Ukraine or ANY people?
I was under impression that what you presented was a bag of potatoes aka Ukraine to which there where attached strings from the West and from the East and both sides were all smiles waiting which pro-Russian citizen would die first from frost bites.
The text of yours only lacked sort of – “one bomb here, two bombs there” and all goals of the Russian/US blueprint will materialize.” No people! Only targets, aims, goals and grand plans!
Pathetic.
P.S. Rowan Berkeley 18 April, 2014 04:14 __opened__ my mind:
Mr Saker is (NOT) a trained analyst of political events. He’s a trained analyst of military field intelligence…
How can the Russians continue to trust the West after so many murderous lies?
The USA has signed 360 treaties with the native Indians and violated ALL of them, without a single exception.
Tough analysis that doesn’t mince words: “However, contrary to what it gives us to understand, it’s not Russia that seeks the return of an iron curtain but really the US. An iron curtain separating the old powers and emerging nations; the world before and the world afterwards; debtors and creditors. And this in the crazy hope of preserving the American way of life and the US’ influence over “its” camp in the absence of being able to impose it on the whole world. In other words, go down with as many companions as possible to give the impression of not sinking.”
And it takes off from there.
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-84-is-available-Europe-dragged-into-a-division-of-the-world-between-debtors-and-creditors-the-United-States_a16039.html
It’s surprising (and sad) reading here such harsh words on Mr Lavrov, or the Saker, or russian president.
Please, cool down!
Extremism is not good, it obscures your mind and leads to defeat.
Actually it is the West that acts on hysteria, and you can look by yourself the results.
I’m GLAD Russia has brains, and is not run by hysteria.
Also, remember the clever words of Sun Tzu: the good warrior deceives his opponent; he is static when the opponent expects movement, and moves when the opponent expects movement.
Also remember the past, it is even a very close one!
It could be comprehensible to distrust Russia in other times; not now, we have all seen the great moves, multi-level moves (political, cultural, communicational, economic, and militar, ALL coordinated). So, logic dictates us that a clever actor, acting cleverly for the past few months in a very difficult situation, will continue acting clever now that the tide goes in his side.
Я
“What I still don’t get is how is it beneficial to Russia to allow NATO into Ukraine (because this is what’ll most likely follow)? Wasn’t the whole thing about not letting NATO in?”
I think Putin is still playing for all of Ukraine calculating he will remain sufficiently influential in a unified federal state to block any encroachment by NATO.
He may be wrong but I believe he understands the ground much better than his opponents. He knows the West will remain aggressive. He is using it to his advantage. I think he is drawing his opponents onto the thinning ice of a frozen lake.
Classic.
Я
“What I still don’t get is how is it beneficial to Russia to allow NATO into Ukraine (because this is what’ll most likely follow)? Wasn’t the whole thing about not letting NATO in?”
I think Putin is still playing for all of Ukraine calculating he will remain sufficiently influential in a unified federal state to block any encroachment by NATO.
He may be wrong but I believe he understands the ground much better than his opponents. He knows the West will remain aggressive. He is using it to his advantage. I think he is drawing his opponents onto the thinning ice of a frozen lake.
Classic.
Dear Saker,
Our take on the results of the Four Party Talks is very similar. Here is my view;
http://darussophile.com/2014/04/deconstructing-the-result-of-the-four-party-talks/
One more post regarding the yesterday’s meeting. UNIAN’s reaction to the event is quite unhappy.
Briefly:
– no prior trilateral meeting to agree on a common position;
– meeting between Kerry and Lavrov, before big talk, appears to be really “frank conversation” and casts doubt on the Ukrainian subjectivity on the international scene;
– clear that US/EU interests are in de-escalating (freezing) of the current situation, even at cost of the Ukrainian state;
– no mention of the need to ensure the territorial integrity of Ukraine and so on…
http://www.unian.net/politics/909364-diplomatyi-kriticheski-otsenili-rezultatyi-jenevskoy-vstrechi.html
It seems that UNIAN cries.
Julien, actually one Indian leader said that the US Government broke every promise they made, but one- the promise that they would steal the Indians land. That promise they kept.
There was no meeting amongst Kerry, Lavrov, Ashton and Deshchytsa. Kerry met with Lavrov in separate room, while Ashton met Deshchytsa in another. Russia in no way recognized the legitimacy of the coup government. Don’t fret.
It is my belief that the us/eu will be outfoxed again. Putin knows they will renege and that the coup government will not/cannot control its various elements. It is called “giving them enough rope to hang themselves”.
I lost half a day waiting on the outcome of these meets. Initially, on American TV, the podium was set up for joint statement between Kerry and Lavrov, complete with both U.S. and Russia flags. I knew things had soured when over 4 hours later, Ashton and Kerry appeared with Russian flag replaced.
Russia is doing all it can to avoid war, but US is intent on not losing this one (too). You are seeing the death throes of a mighty beast being suffocated by its own greed and hubris. A more dangerous time has not existed.
I would like to suggest that americans have become too complacent about war as we have been protected by the atlantic and pacific and don’t have memories of the bombings, burning and bloodshed which actual warfare consists of.
I’m not sure that the dollar collapse would serve a strong enough lesson to the sheep here. It may be necessary to bring a war to our shores and cities so that we become less warlike. I don’t think any country would be able to conquer the U.S. landmass, but torching a few cities, (not new orleans, but ok to hit d.c. two or three times :) may be necessary to humble our most fervent armchair warriors.
I’m in the south and there is a church every other block but the large majority I have contact with are uninformed and ignorant. They would support USA gov in any war.
I pity them but have grown weary, (and somewhat concerned with having my homes burned down) by trying to enlighten them. Already having been subject to having my house surrounded by armed forces after speaking my views at a church group last year, my fears are justified.
We are the kid in the grocery store throwing a tantrum and the civilized world needs to step up, be a good parent and properly discipline that kid.
I just wanted to comment on those here who see the Geneva statement as some sort of “betrayal” of the eastern Ukrainians.
This utterly misunderstands the nature of what was agreed in Geneva. To repeat this is NOT a final agreement to settle the crisis. As Lavrov has made completely clear that agreement can only be made by the Ukrainians themselves. What the Geneva statement does and is intended to do is provide a route map for the contending parties so that they can arrive at that agreement.
To answer that specific comment:
1. If the regime in Kiev really does use force to try to crush the uprising in the Donbass it will be in breach of the agreement which insists upon the non use of force. Russia will in that case be free to act to protect them and as Putin made clear in his television marathon considers itself entitled to do so.
2.The Geneva document as Saker has absolutely rightly pointed out requires Kiev to negotiate with the people in the east. This is the first time this happened in a formal document.
3. As Lavrov pointed out, the Geneva document encompasses the whole of the Ukraine and is not limited to the eastern Ukraine. Maidan and the buildings in the west occupied by the pro regime militants must be freed just as must be in the east and Right Sector and the Maidan Self Defence Force must be disarmed just as must the protesters in the east. There is no timeline in the agreement so that must be negotiated by the parties on the ground in coordination with the OSCE monitors there.
4. As I pointed out in my analysis Russian economic help to the Ukraine is now conditional on Kiev observing the road map.
Far from this document ignoring the eastern Ukrainians it is ultimately all about them. It is a very small step forward and we will see endless attempts to twist and misrepresent the document in order to allege that it is Russia and the east Ukrainians who are breaching. That unfortunately is the sad reality of the modern world where the US and its allies cannot be trusted and use propaganda as an instrument of policy. It falls to people like the Saker to expose that.
Dear Saker –
having pondered this Geneva deal overnight, and having read your analysis, there are some aspects which make me think that Lavrov and Putin have actually made a brilliant deal here.
First: all groups must put down their arms. That, to me, also means Pravy Sektor, or ‘Maidan security’ or whatever they call themselves.
Since it is very doubtful that they’ll do so, it’s point one to Russia, they can clobber the USA and the EU with that for a long long time …
Second: how is the Kiev regime going to disarm the demonstrators in the Donbass? Will they send in the army – with the results we’ve already seen? Or will they send in their new ‘National Guard” – which everybody knows has become an organisation for the “Maidan security’, i.e. Pravy Sektor – another point to Russia, because this illegitimate regime does not have the constitutional power to build a private army. International lawyers will have a field day.
Third: will the USA and the EU have the power to force the Kiev regime to keep to this agreement? They already are on record that they are going to keep up their ‘operations’ in the East – not a very good start, is it. Therefore if the USA and EU cannot rein in their Kiev clients – another point to Russia because by then the whole world cannot have failed to notice where the culprits sit.
This being Holy Week, and Good Friday today, Easter Sunday coming up, I think not much will happen during these most Holy days.
Fireworks to start early next week – but so far it looks like Russia won this round.
My little ones! My trolls! My clowns! Let us meditate on this “four party agreement” together!
There is no doubt much of this agreement that isn’t released to the public. That is what we should focus on.
OSCE monitors are anglo saxon agents aand are liar and deceivers-they are rabid anti russians.
should never have allowed thse or un observers.
russia has only one ally-her amred forces and putin. even lavrov is a weakling and traitor like medvedev-he talks too much and has no brian to realise who is enemy and who is freind.
An emphatic YES! to what Julien and Mulga said. Henry Red Cloud’s words should have been a warning to everyone everywhere, because that is Just. What. We. Do.
And anonymous 10:51, if it’s any consolation, it’s not just a Southern phenomenon, believe me! It would appear to be a fact of life anywhere in rural America. But while our mentality and behavior certainly resemble a four-year-old’s temper tantrum, we’re really more like a crazy drunk uncle waving a hand grenade at the Thanksgiving table — we have got to be de-fused very, very carefully.
Anonymous at 10:51 that’s an extraordinary notion that I’ve never encountered before, about the US being so warlike because it hasn’t experienced war in a long time, and how a dose of war might temper the war-fever of the US people.
Thanks for the concept – not that I wish war on anyone, and not that I think there could ever be any on the shores of the US.
But it would be the best for the world and the US if it could just collapse gradually in a long wave of humiliation, and then as a more humble people arise to its Christian heritage of charity, greatly influenced at the core by the noble peace of Buddhism that has been taking hold in the country in the last few decades.
@Saker
This is indeed an optimistic assessment of yours. Let’s hope you are right.
The diplomatic successes of Russia of that last years however are a mixed bag – Libya vs. Syria, to name two obvious contrasting examples. I absolutely agree that Lavrov, who has been Foreign Minister now for 10 years, and as such was an important part of the diplomacy in that mixed bag, is one of the best diplomats out there, certainly the best that I personally am aware of.
Putin otoh is a great leader and decider. He looks at all the relevant facts first, before making any decisions or uttering even a single word. Decisions, which on that international level are necessarily decisions of life, death and the well-being of many people.
Back to that mixed bag – do you think Russia’s abstention on the Libya “no fly zone” (the legal definition of that must be something like “no one flies except Western bombers and fighters”) is to be laid at Medvedev’s door? I would guess in the end it was the President’s call, but I’m not sure how much the judgement of Churkin and Lavrov figured in that.
(Considering the bigger picture, the abstention on Libya might actually not have been all that bad, because now with Syria and in the future, Russia doesn’t need to surmise that “if we wouldn’t veto, you’d just bomb” – which might be debated, but instead they can state, backed by recent history, that “when we didn’t veto, you just bombed. So we will veto this. Period.”. Plus going it alone is more difficult in its ramifications from doing it together with another big partner: China. And I don’t know if they would have vetoed Libya)
From listening to Putin, including his latest Q&A, but going back a decade, it is clear he’s not naively trusting the West, which instills hope of course, but I do share some concerns of the critics of the agreement:
* By negotiating and coming to an agreement with the Putsch regime, Russia, if it intends to do so or not, gives that regime legitimacy (which might have good and bad sides)
* By forcing all illegally armed persons, and for Western media, as well as Western leaders, that means: armed protesters of the Putsch regime only, to lay down their arms, they have given ammunition to the West which I fear will be used against Ukraine’s Easterners and against Putin, but worst case, it will serve as (Western media sanctioned) legitimization for the Putschists to use force against the protesters (including those unarmed).
And the Putsch government does need legitimization. It looks pretty bad for them, in terms of actual power over their police, armed forces, and the governments in the East. And the German media (at least, but it’s a start) is now openly talking about the dichotomy of media and people, who are writing letters to the editor in huge numbers. And if you listen to the details of the arguments made in those discussions (German language video, thanks R. from Germany btw – this is a very well-reasoned, soft spoken interview, let’s hope this point of view is getting traction), it gets obvious that that is NOT because of Germany’s economic dependency on Russia, which, nevertheless, might help enabling that discussion, finally.
So I’m not so sure at all if anything positive for the East Ukrainians comes out of it, but I’d be surprised if this agreement will not be abused to only rub Russia “their” failure to fulfill it into her face, disregarding anything the other side doesn’t live up to. At least that’s what we’ve seen so far in this and other such crises.
Honk
< Doris, a camel from North Yorkshire, gave birth despite no contact with a male for over a year.>
Mystery of pregnant camel with no mate.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/wildlife/10774201/Mystery-of-pregnant-camel-with-no-mate.html
In a word: will huumanity survive or will the US destroy it?
Easter in America.
“Is Putin gay?”
What can you say?
The sublime and the riduculous..the tragedy and the farce..
Whose who?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/13/bill-maher-putin-gay_n_5142950.html
@anonymous 15:34.
I strongly agree with you:
“* By negotiating and coming to an agreement with the Putsch regime, Russia, if it intends to do so or not, gives that regime legitimacy (which might have good and bad sides)
* By forcing all illegally armed persons, and for Western media, as well as Western leaders, that means: armed protesters of the Putsch regime only, to lay down their arms, they have given ammunition to the West which I fear will be used against Ukraine’s Easterners and against Putin, but worst case, it will serve as (Western media sanctioned) legitimization for the Putschists to use force against the protesters (including those unarmed).”
Regards.
And don’t forget, Nora, that in the mythologised ‘Wild West’ of the US imagination, the sad reality was that 90% of those killed in shoot-outs were shot in the back. The Hollywood farce of facing-off, man-to-man, in the street, at high noon, is bulldust.