Yes this is a good show…Yes…about the extremes of first only looking West…and now only looking East…makes me remember that South Stream fiasco, when Putin, instead of dealing with the infrastructure of Germany…the best in the world…was looking at Ergodan….yuck….
All good people, all fans of Russia, nothing new here but good to see Russia’s fundamentals translated into mainstream arguments. Kraus is very solid and proven true, the Deutsche guy I’ve watched before, he’s very wise. David Gray I didn’t know but he’s pretty sound also it seems.
Kraus was perfect in his observation of the psyche of Russia in the last two years – how the people have finally overthrown the Hollywood trance and seen through the West. No better investment than a Russia that feels good about itself!
Very correct to see that Russia has not “lost” Europe, contrary to the US hope of driving wedges. All nations wish to embrace Asia in its historic century, and Russia happens to lead the way. EU can just follow along, and make deals with Russia.
Suggesting that Russia must come up with a brand new economic paradigm (i.e. to defeat the boom-bust cycle endemic to the system) is a bit of a stretch. No one said Russia was going to reinvent capitalism. The Russian plan is to beat everyone, within that system. Maybe later, we can get revolutionary, but maybe never. There are plenty of other countries who can reinvent capitalism.
And that was the first 10 minutes, I confess I went no further :)
“No one said Russia was going to reinvent capitalism.”
That’s why Russia will never win. Capitalism is the source of the oligarchs – it is the source of the problem.
Oligarch’s are not (an cannot be) benign.
A previous poster referred to the Trillions of the Rothschild’s while Kat Kan refers to “why should I give my money to the government” and “low level inheritance tax” is ok.
Please, either dry your eyes about Donbass or recognise the root of the problem (and discuss fixing that).
Well, first, take a name for yourself, Anonymous, if you want a real discussion. Otherwise nothing gets fixed. Second, if Russia can’t win because “capitalism is the problem”, this kind of means that no one else in that system can win either – yes?
And this is very true, actually, and I agree with the concept. Everyone in capitalism is ultimately doomed to lose, including the centuries-old banking families who think they have such a great handle on things.
But none of this is the point, here, today. The point still stands that Russia is playing a limited game within a certain system, and playing to win. I admire what I see so far. As to the system itself, I personally do want to change it but I don’t look to Russia to lead the way on this. I do look to Russia to help provide a stable global economy and political system, within which innovators may reasonably attempt to change the system, over time.
Let me offer as a final word on Russia’s future, advice from the fictional character Lazarus Long, who said:
Of course the game is rigged. But don’t let that stop you playing. If you don’t play, you can’t win.
“Everyone in capitalism is ultimately doomed to lose, including the centuries-old banking families who think they have such a great handle on things.”
No – the psycopaths/oligarchs eventually do become god-like on the shoulders of the masses (and the suffering of the even more unfortunates aka Syria/Donbass etc)
There is zero reason why a Russian Oligarch should be any less psychopathic than any other.
So, the Capatilist system is the root cause problem. Since that suits all oligarchs/trillionaires (and those who aspire to fill their boots) it will – most likely – never change.
A Greek friend says to me: “what new world order, it has always been so”
Capitalism minus outright fraud and demogougery might be constructive. Saker doesn’t have much use for libertarians, especially the doctrinaire ones, but much has been written and Rothbard is a great thinker.
Capitalism is doomed. Nobody has yet disproved Marx as far as his analysis of capitalism is concerned. So, why should Russia try to reinvent and reincarnate what is a historical dead end? Waste of time. Let the West with their TTIP, TPP and other imperialist strategies to bring the damn thing down.
What will be born at the other end is another question. There, again, Marx had some ideas, and in my view, he has not yet been proven wrong there either. The apparently unsuccessful attempts of building fairer societies in former socialist countries are not the proof that Marx was wrong. Marx said that revolution will have to happen worldwide. Lenin, on the other hand, argued for possibility of “communism in a single country”. Of course the world imperialists could not let that system survive.
Perhaps another attempt, when imperialsim runs to the ground?
”beat everyone, within the system’ – of course but for the time being.
You must take into your head that, what contains the whole contains the parts, i.e. the russian state and society have finally come to the conclusion to separate and get away from the west its ‘democracy’ as it runs nowadays. Entirely, from top to bottom.
M oscow has decided, or better,been forced or otherwise realized by sheer suffering that the whole west is a shit – and cultivating the CORE OF its system lead to bust. If btw what shines in the horizon is Beijing, why would not russians build up a new system.
Keeping the right to controlled private propertyand effective anti trust will be enough.Even because it is not the 1st time that this people faces doom ahead and turns the tide no matter how huge the tide is.
It’s important to remember what capitalism is: rich people making money by having money instead of producing tangible goods or real value. It doesn’t mean ‘doing business’.
So right there is an analysis of oligarchs (richer capitalists): they make money by having money, and therefore power, and transforming one to the other back and forth, as both being forms of power. And taking both away from the people (working class).
Regulations can help dampen this for a while *as with FDR and reforms after Great Depression), but only for while until the plutocracy get the laws changed or find ways around them. That’s the never-ending struggle so far, even with the people and oligarchs in the state capitalism of USSR. Capitalism is also inherently unstable (Marx, Minsky, historical records).
Any alternative must include real democracy over plutocracy, tyranny, or other imbalances, but that requires people to be educated, informed, and aware in these matters (even if not formally). That’s where the power of the people comes from: knowledge. Only then can there be sufficient political power to control the economy, and sufficient economic power to control politics — the same political economics that the oligarchy engage in.
From here, then, we can start working out what an alternative system would have to look like its in essential characteristics, call it what you will.
The crisis showed that economists know nothing. It’s not like science or mathematics it’s all subject to a lot of opinion.
There was a lot of wishful thinking in the west who wanted the Russian economy to crash for political reasons.
They did not factor in the will of the people not to give in and panic. Also firm leadership at the top to restore calm and confidence.
Looking ahead will be more challenges but people won’t react to them with hysteria
I left this for you the last time you asked!! ….and it was published!!
—————–
Ann, I’ll take a stab at it.
Before WW1 the Ottoman Empire controlled much more territory than modern day Turkey.
After 1918,Britain,France and the USA re-modelled the ME and Europe.
France got parts and Britain got the Palestine mandate, Wiki …Sykes-Picot……..
“The Sykes–Picot Agreement, officially known as the Asia Minor Agreement, was a secret agreement between the governments of the United Kingdom and France,[1] with the assent of Russia, defining their proposed spheres of influence and control in the Middle East should the Triple Entente succeed in defeating the Ottoman Empire during World War I. “.
Now Britain,France and the US are playing games,games which are devastating to the people living there……..but….these are exceptionals.
The Ottoman provinces are what are being contended for,and Turkey clearly would like it’s own slice of the pie, hence…. games all round!.
In geopolitics,a 100 years is nothing! the ‘agreement’ is only 99 years old,a blink of the eye for bureacrats, the old rules apply…..Big brother protects little brother…..or …..Big fish swallow little fish.
The big picture is much,much bigger than this…..but it is a place to start from.
If the United States of 1812 had annexed BC wouldn’t modern day Canadians want it back?
In my opinion it is mainly a sectarian issue. Erdogan is rather fanatical (Sunni) sectarian and he doesn’t like it that the Alawite Assad is ruling Sunni majority Syria. At some point Erdogan or one of his officials even explicitly said that the next ruler of Syria should be a Sunni. This led to an uproar in the West so they haven’t repeated it. But it makes clear where they stand.
Off the top of my head, this may be way off, but my understanding of the history between the West (particularly Britain) and China starting from that time period is that things went roughly like this:
Britain et al: Wow, look at that silk and those fine ceramics and all that other snazzy stuff! We want some! Trade with us for it!
China: You barbarians have little we want. And buying your cheap clothes and fabrics would put our artisans out of business. Go away.
Britain: But we really really want your stuff!
China: Too bad.
Britain: Fine. We’re coming in with cannon and we’re gonna addict your people to opium so there’s something they need that we can supply, and take over some cities so we can make the rules there. You’re gonna “trade” with us whether you like it or not. Nobody stops us from getting what we want.
China: You bastards. We will get you for this someday.
(suffers at the hands of Westerners and, later, Japanese for a couple hundred years; Communist revolution finally takes back sovereignty, Capitalist sub-revolution creates massive growth, and now luckily for us they seem to have mainly decided that “The best revenge is living well”)
You forgot the very large Russian land grab. When Xi says unequal treaties, as he did on inauguration, he isn’t talking about Hong Kong these days. The Japanese pushed Russia aside to grab even more and there weren’t many people in the Russian bits. Still, the Middle Kingdom has a better claim on the Russian Far East than it has on, say , Tibet.
The Chinese sold tea but insisted on payment in silver rather than trade because silver was easier for trade officials to pocket. Exports were more difficult to control. At the time, opium was a popular drug in Europe. The maiden aunt drinking phials of Laudunam was a stock character in Victorian novels. Opium has been demonized in modern times by its association with heroin, a refined product, not then invented. The Opium wars took place but revisionism has been a major factor in evaluating them.
A charming episode indeed! They all seem rather nice and are benevolent in their observations and critic, as oppose to those tense, angry or disgusted faces one is use to seeing in such discussions… This was actually a dialog, and a pleasant one to hear. Thanks for posting it! Regards to all!
Thinks everyone has had enough, With turkey providing indirect fire support and logistics to terrorists they used regular Turkish troops to take another Syrian city. In response Hezbollah mobilized regular forces for reinforcements. This fight has now escalated to Sunni v/s everyone else. Iran is training people to send to Syria. They have advisors but all those people are not Iranian, even Afghanis and Pakistani’s. Must be in response to US training moderate terrorists to send to Syria. Syria and Iran also have a mutual defense treaty.
BEIRUT – A top pro-Assad daily in Lebanon has reported that Iran has deployed troops into northwest Syria in preparation for a counterattack in Idlib.
“During the last [few] days, and through a joint Syrian-Iranian-Iraqi decision, more than 20,000 Iranian, Iraqi, and Lebanese fighters have poured into the Idlib area,” As-Safir reported in a dramatic article published Tuesday.
“A mobilization of this size registers as a break from the undeclared Iranian-Turkish understanding, that direct and exposed confrontation between the two countries in Syria is to be avoided.”
I often find it mind boggling at times when I think of the mentality of your average American taxpayer. Let us consider a moment, according to CNS News the number of Americans now in receipt of food stamps has topped 46,000,000 people, a vast number if they are lucky are in menial very underpaid jobs with no job security struggling to make ends meet as all the decent paying middle class jobs have all been outsourced to other countries where the cost of labour is cheaper and credible sources put the number of Americans without any health insurance at between 40 and 45 million. Their cities and basic infrastructure are slowly crumbling away due to lack of maintenance as local governments have no money to spend on their upkeep.
Their nuclear reactor plants are in dodgy shape again due to proper lack of maintenance and the government does its best to keep hushing up any accidents or radiation leaks that occur.
But then you see their government spending over half a trillion dollars on the military and defence which is over half of the annual national budget which should give any right thinking individual a pause for thought, especially when it also becomes known that the Pentagon and the DOD are the only government departments that have never been audited.
$8.5 trillion of taxpayers money has been awarded by congress to the Pentagon since 1996 and not one cent of this unimaginably vast sum has nor ever will be accounted for. According to Reuters:
“The Pentagon is the only federal agency that has not complied with a law that requires annual audits of all government departments. That means that the $8.5 trillion in taxpayer money doled out by Congress to the Pentagon since 1996, the first year it was supposed to be audited, has never been accounted for. That sum exceeds the value of China’s economic output last year”.
So while the middle classes are being wiped out in America a handful of very privileged people are running a very sweet scam with taxpayers money but your average American is seemingly too dumb to figure out what is going on right under their noses. These people are mafia pure and simple. They have the mafia mentality and the mafia way of operating, only on a global scale.
One last thing, On September 10, 2001, Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld held a press conference to disclose that over $2,000,000,000,000 in Pentagon funds could not be accounted for. Rumsfeld stated: “According to some estimates we cannot track $2.3 trillion in transactions”.
This was all forgotten the following day.
Chatham House forever lurks malevolent in the shadow of it’s big brash thug colony :
“………In their report, titled “Russian Challenge”, the experts of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, better known as Chatham House, advise for the preparation of further worsening of relations with Russia and an eventual change of guard in the Kremlin.
The authors underscore the need to strengthen NATO as a key instrument of “containing” Russia, to counter the “Kremlin propaganda” and recommend maintaining the anti-Russian sanctions until the complete settlement of the crisis in eastern Ukraine takes place.
The experts urge “to find better ways to communicate to the Russian people that it is in its long-term national interest to be a part of a rules-based Europe, not an isolated regional hegemon…….”
The bw-itish version of Council on Foreign Relations,as bankrupt as the country itself.
The foreign office and bureacratic autocrats of bw-itain would like to pretend they are still relevant….but look how fast they rushed to join the Chinese initiative AIIB.
The Russians and Chinese are doing deals,not subjugating vassals like the old colonials.
“The foreign office and bureacratic autocrats of bw-itain would like to pretend they are still relevant….but look how fast they rushed to join the Chinese initiative AIIB”.
Im not so sure their joining the AIIB is such a good thing for the AIIB, depending on how the organisation itself is structured I guess. What the Chinese ought to realise is that by joining they become the enemy within so to speak. Nothing good or positive can come from the governments of the UK or the US and I strongly suspect they are merely the eyes of Washington within the organisation.
You call it a great show. Look at these 3 Demagogue preaching as if the western so called “economic REFORM” drugs have cured anyone. It is a plague and they are generators of Plague. Peter should invite some really enlightened people who really knows economy. Not the German who has destroyed everyother one in Europe to have their profits.
What I observed in the discussions that they have no clued how the Russians are acting rather they only want their profits from Russia. Wait for some more years and see the fun as their economy would take of with the speed of Elephant not tiger if you all understand the difference between the Elephant and the Tiger. The Economy of China and India and Russia would never crash. By the way have every heard the economy of India has crashed??? Russia is well with China and India and hence it economy would not crash in future. Of course it is supported by also the friends of Latin-Am, Africa and the WORLD and not the world. Just wait and watch these three morons would only scratch their heads.
By the way one very interesting new. Russia has come to the conclusion of the need of GAS and OIL in the INDIAN market. A simply huge market for its resources. A very interesting engineering marvel of creating the GAS pipeline to India is going to take shape and then it would be a lots of fun. Also Indian economy is self sustained economy and India is working in all direction to become self reliant. With Russia and China it would be a lots of fun. Watch the future in the Asia or Eurasia…
The west can have fun with their Robotic/soulless society if they have a society….
Sanjay, you’re so right…that is what those American guys and the German guy are doing in Russia…making money off her. And for your final comment about robotic cultural society…how true…. I was talking to a friend here on SS and she is anti-Christian…I finally agreed that I also hate the Catholic Church, but I’m very Christian…and she didn’t know what to make of that….it had never even occurred to her that a person can be Christian without being part of a major Church…even a minor church…just spiritual. I hope that India continues to be what you think it is. Maybe I should move there. By the way, I have 5 horses…do you think there would be a place for them in India too ?
If one knows russian history, if one knows history of the Great Patriotic War, if one knows the increase of wealth since 2001, if one think russians remember the default of 1998(?); if one knows that russia has ~400 Billions in reserve, ~4000Billiones and more in gas and oil resources and people who went through terrible times not even half a generation away … how can s/he belive that the non availibility of some western consume trash would change the mind of the people and ask for a new goverment.
it is actually a brute harassement of russians to belive that.
People are asking how they got there??? I think they were there already, same as the Polite People in Crimea last year. … and after which Transnistria asked Moscow to take them in as well, which of course is legally tricky.
Anyway they’ve had months to get a few extra people in there. There might be more than just reconnaissance groups, too.
Prospects for weapon exports seem good. It will be even better is Russia pulls it off with the new weapons (having seen the F-35 JSF drama in the US I am rather skeptical as long as something is not really in mass production). But of course that is a rather government centered business: you need government orders to develop new weapons.
On the other hand the prospects for agriculture seem rather limited. For that you need infrastructure (roads and railways, education and research and a network of suppliers). I haven’t seen Russia investing much in that until now.
We see the same lack of attention in other areas like the Skolkovo center in Moscow. Developing an industry requires continuous attention from the government and I don’t see that in Russia. Macro-economic tricks like a currency devaluation help but you cannot go without attention to the details – and I don’t see that Putin paying that attention.
Peter Lavelle, you’re my hero! Love your crazy socks! The black and white striped pair you wore on set the other day made me bust up laughing. Could you please wear Hello Kitty socks next time? Everybody loves Hello Kitty. The whole world would be in an uproar if they pulled the plug on RT after that. Nobody pulls the plug on Hello Kitty!
I agree with sk. Eric Kraus is okay but the other two are neoliberal market fundamentalists, which is not surprising as they work for the corrupt PWC and the bank with $80 millions of derivatives.
The PWC Brit wants to challenge the role of the state in the Russian economy which is corporate speak for privatizations. He wants to question state banks. Yeah, bring on the FED which is so much better! Even “structural reforms” – that favorite IMF buzzword for sucking the life blood out of a country – is mentioned.
Lavelle, presumably because he is a bit in awe of economists – who are the biggest bullshit artists on the planet- does not challenge these two right wingers. It is left to Mr. Kraus to explain that the much of the success of Japan, Singapore, China etc. is down to strong state help for business. But then that’s how PWC makes its money fixing the books and selling stupid but lucrative consultancy to companies that are in trouble.
They even manage to bad mouth Argentina. They should read Naomi Klein’s Shock Doctrine which explains in painful detail what the IMF and the Washington consensus did to this great country. I would like to see Michael Hudson take on these jerks.
Eric Kraus makes the most valid points concerning the Russian economy. The PWC guy is just full of neo-liberal BS. The DB dude is also a bit on the liberal side.
The problem with the talk is that nobody really mentioned Russia’s number one problem currently: A low rate of investment.
To remedy that, Russia needs to reduce wages (I know it’s painful, but it is also necessary if Russia wants to grow her economy at between 3 to 5%, which is perfectly doable)
Also, Russia needs to copy the Chinese model as much as possible, i.e. State-controlled and state-led capitalism.
The major banks, major oil and gas companies as well as major resource companies, plus all utilities should remain firmly under state control. The free market only causes disaster in these sectors. Being state-controlled does not mean that you operate outside of market conditions (which is impossible under global capitalism) but only that you operate natural monopolies or natural oligopolies under long-term planning and with the interests of the state under consideration.
Now, the private sector will come mostly in the tourist, retail and manufacturing sectors (which can also involve state-owned companies, as in the PRC) where free competition actually works.
Moreover, with the right industrial policy, plus cooperation with China (also South Korea, and also western corporations that will brave the sanctions, which some of them do) Russia can become an industrial powerhouse again. I am not saying that she can become Japan/Germany overnight, but significant growth can ensure within the coming decade, since Russia has the advantage has two significant advantages over the most advanced countries: a) Lower wages and b) more plentiful, cheaper and locally sourced energy and raw materials.
“…Russia’s number one problem currently: A low rate of investment.
To remedy that, Russia needs to reduce wages (I know it’s painful, but it is also necessary…”
How do you figure reduced wages will create more investment? The first thing it would do is reduce the money available for buying things, which means fewer sales. That prospect has to be bad for business, certainly not worthy investing more just to make fewer sales, is it?
Yes, I am aware of theories that say “invest in an existing business then make your profit by cutting all the costs, starting with the wages”. That is called making your profit on screwing the workers, not on improving or expanding the business.
The real cause of low investment in Russia is the reluctance of the banks to lend for medium and small business, having little experience with that type of lending. Interest rates are high and they may require up to 130% security and an immediate start to payments. This is useless for developing a business that takes time by nature, eg you can’t produce new cattle any faster than they’ll breed.
Going on comments in recent televised sessions,. Putin is aware of this problem, and they are working on some development banking scheme to provide this type of loan. The aim is to encourage local entrepreneurs, not to enrich investors who come with their own money or their own (especially foreign) funding sources.
They do Islamic banking here in Australia, where I live. The bank calculates the interest over the term of the loan and adds it to the capital. So if your loan is 100,000 and the interest over 20 years would come to 45,000 they just lend 145,000. Same thing, it’s just not called “interest”. In fact I think they miss out on the interest rate fluctuations that, on home loans, sometimes lower the monthly payment for people with normal loans.
Still, it’s a good sign they are seeing enough growth in the Islamic republics that they see the need for this. (I bet a multi billionaire type of Islamic investor doesn’t worry much about paying or charging interest, but this is a good move for smaller investors, entrepeneurs).
In a capitalist economy (even a state-capitalist economy) what drives investment and consequently growth, is profits, and more to the point, the rate of profit. This is Marxist economics 101. For such a policy to be at maximum efficiency, maybe capital controls should be introduced, so as to make certain that the high profit rates of capitalist enterprises within Russia stay put and are re-invested straight back into the Russian economy. This is precisely what East Asian economies have been doing for several decades now and with astonishing results to boot (especially the PRC)
The idea that “aggregate demand” is what drives growth, and since the biggest component of aggregate demand is consumption, the state must always seek to maximize consumption (unless high inflation) is not even Keynesian. It is “neo-Keynesian” as proposed by such mediocrities as Paul Krugman, Stiglitz and some “Social-Democratic” politicians in the US and Europe.
The good news, is that the reduction in Russian wages has already taken place during the past year or so due to the devaluation of the Russian currency.
To be certain, low wages on their own do not guarantee a high rate of growth. You need the proper investment environment, a strong state to mediate, the right infrastructure, the specialized labor, the networks of suppliers, natural resources, markets to sell to etc etc etc. Russia ticks some of those boxes, but not all, so the government of the Russian Federation must work towards those goals.
I am still in awe what makes you think it is a “GREAT SHOW”. It is pathetic to see how criminals and pimps are brought on to the show as expert. just listen a couple of times and I felt what a waste of time and energy and Peter as usual doesn’t know how to give a deeper thinking on anything. May be he is running out of steam. But it is pathetic to see the 3 Western Reformer who want to question Russian economy.
Who are they to question??? As I said wait for few more years.
For the World Economy as a whole,the most important issue is the eighteen trillion dollar debt of the US Govt.Any rise in the Interest rate will cause default in interest payments alone.I heard a news item today in NPR (National Public Radio),that the MF was recommending the non-raising of interest rates on the part of the US Federal Reserve.They must be worried about consequences.
I really miss the hysterics…
Whuaaaawaaaaawawww….
Yes this is a good show…Yes…about the extremes of first only looking West…and now only looking East…makes me remember that South Stream fiasco, when Putin, instead of dealing with the infrastructure of Germany…the best in the world…was looking at Ergodan….yuck….
of course it wasn’t Putin’s fault…but it must have been hard for him.
All good people, all fans of Russia, nothing new here but good to see Russia’s fundamentals translated into mainstream arguments. Kraus is very solid and proven true, the Deutsche guy I’ve watched before, he’s very wise. David Gray I didn’t know but he’s pretty sound also it seems.
Kraus was perfect in his observation of the psyche of Russia in the last two years – how the people have finally overthrown the Hollywood trance and seen through the West. No better investment than a Russia that feels good about itself!
Very correct to see that Russia has not “lost” Europe, contrary to the US hope of driving wedges. All nations wish to embrace Asia in its historic century, and Russia happens to lead the way. EU can just follow along, and make deals with Russia.
Suggesting that Russia must come up with a brand new economic paradigm (i.e. to defeat the boom-bust cycle endemic to the system) is a bit of a stretch. No one said Russia was going to reinvent capitalism. The Russian plan is to beat everyone, within that system. Maybe later, we can get revolutionary, but maybe never. There are plenty of other countries who can reinvent capitalism.
And that was the first 10 minutes, I confess I went no further :)
“No one said Russia was going to reinvent capitalism.”
That’s why Russia will never win. Capitalism is the source of the oligarchs – it is the source of the problem.
Oligarch’s are not (an cannot be) benign.
A previous poster referred to the Trillions of the Rothschild’s while Kat Kan refers to “why should I give my money to the government” and “low level inheritance tax” is ok.
Please, either dry your eyes about Donbass or recognise the root of the problem (and discuss fixing that).
Well, first, take a name for yourself, Anonymous, if you want a real discussion. Otherwise nothing gets fixed. Second, if Russia can’t win because “capitalism is the problem”, this kind of means that no one else in that system can win either – yes?
And this is very true, actually, and I agree with the concept. Everyone in capitalism is ultimately doomed to lose, including the centuries-old banking families who think they have such a great handle on things.
But none of this is the point, here, today. The point still stands that Russia is playing a limited game within a certain system, and playing to win. I admire what I see so far. As to the system itself, I personally do want to change it but I don’t look to Russia to lead the way on this. I do look to Russia to help provide a stable global economy and political system, within which innovators may reasonably attempt to change the system, over time.
Let me offer as a final word on Russia’s future, advice from the fictional character Lazarus Long, who said:
Of course the game is rigged. But don’t let that stop you playing. If you don’t play, you can’t win.
“Everyone in capitalism is ultimately doomed to lose, including the centuries-old banking families who think they have such a great handle on things.”
No – the psycopaths/oligarchs eventually do become god-like on the shoulders of the masses (and the suffering of the even more unfortunates aka Syria/Donbass etc)
There is zero reason why a Russian Oligarch should be any less psychopathic than any other.
So, the Capatilist system is the root cause problem. Since that suits all oligarchs/trillionaires (and those who aspire to fill their boots) it will – most likely – never change.
A Greek friend says to me: “what new world order, it has always been so”
Capitalism minus outright fraud and demogougery might be constructive. Saker doesn’t have much use for libertarians, especially the doctrinaire ones, but much has been written and Rothbard is a great thinker.
“Capitalism minus outright fraud and demogougery ”
=>
Capitalism
minusimplies outright fraud and demogougeryCapitalism is doomed. Nobody has yet disproved Marx as far as his analysis of capitalism is concerned. So, why should Russia try to reinvent and reincarnate what is a historical dead end? Waste of time. Let the West with their TTIP, TPP and other imperialist strategies to bring the damn thing down.
What will be born at the other end is another question. There, again, Marx had some ideas, and in my view, he has not yet been proven wrong there either. The apparently unsuccessful attempts of building fairer societies in former socialist countries are not the proof that Marx was wrong. Marx said that revolution will have to happen worldwide. Lenin, on the other hand, argued for possibility of “communism in a single country”. Of course the world imperialists could not let that system survive.
Perhaps another attempt, when imperialsim runs to the ground?
Russian heart,
I hope we get a chance.
”beat everyone, within the system’ – of course but for the time being.
You must take into your head that, what contains the whole contains the parts, i.e. the russian state and society have finally come to the conclusion to separate and get away from the west its ‘democracy’ as it runs nowadays. Entirely, from top to bottom.
M oscow has decided, or better,been forced or otherwise realized by sheer suffering that the whole west is a shit – and cultivating the CORE OF its system lead to bust. If btw what shines in the horizon is Beijing, why would not russians build up a new system.
Keeping the right to controlled private propertyand effective anti trust will be enough.Even because it is not the 1st time that this people faces doom ahead and turns the tide no matter how huge the tide is.
It’s important to remember what capitalism is: rich people making money by having money instead of producing tangible goods or real value. It doesn’t mean ‘doing business’.
So right there is an analysis of oligarchs (richer capitalists): they make money by having money, and therefore power, and transforming one to the other back and forth, as both being forms of power. And taking both away from the people (working class).
Regulations can help dampen this for a while *as with FDR and reforms after Great Depression), but only for while until the plutocracy get the laws changed or find ways around them. That’s the never-ending struggle so far, even with the people and oligarchs in the state capitalism of USSR. Capitalism is also inherently unstable (Marx, Minsky, historical records).
Any alternative must include real democracy over plutocracy, tyranny, or other imbalances, but that requires people to be educated, informed, and aware in these matters (even if not formally). That’s where the power of the people comes from: knowledge. Only then can there be sufficient political power to control the economy, and sufficient economic power to control politics — the same political economics that the oligarchy engage in.
From here, then, we can start working out what an alternative system would have to look like its in essential characteristics, call it what you will.
You’re a smart old dog Blue.
Russia loses Europe! That is as much of a classic as “Fog in Channel, Continent cut off.”
The crisis showed that economists know nothing. It’s not like science or mathematics it’s all subject to a lot of opinion.
There was a lot of wishful thinking in the west who wanted the Russian economy to crash for political reasons.
They did not factor in the will of the people not to give in and panic. Also firm leadership at the top to restore calm and confidence.
Looking ahead will be more challenges but people won’t react to them with hysteria
I like that Duetche banker…hope he’s not a criminal…
and what I still don’t understand is why Ergodan is trying to get rid of Assad…can someone tell me ?
Turkey wants to “control” Syria.
This will also give Turkey leverage over the GCC/ Qatar in regards to pipelines.
I left this for you the last time you asked!! ….and it was published!!
—————–
Ann, I’ll take a stab at it.
Before WW1 the Ottoman Empire controlled much more territory than modern day Turkey.
After 1918,Britain,France and the USA re-modelled the ME and Europe.
France got parts and Britain got the Palestine mandate, Wiki …Sykes-Picot……..
“The Sykes–Picot Agreement, officially known as the Asia Minor Agreement, was a secret agreement between the governments of the United Kingdom and France,[1] with the assent of Russia, defining their proposed spheres of influence and control in the Middle East should the Triple Entente succeed in defeating the Ottoman Empire during World War I. “.
Now Britain,France and the US are playing games,games which are devastating to the people living there……..but….these are exceptionals.
The Ottoman provinces are what are being contended for,and Turkey clearly would like it’s own slice of the pie, hence…. games all round!.
In geopolitics,a 100 years is nothing! the ‘agreement’ is only 99 years old,a blink of the eye for bureacrats, the old rules apply…..Big brother protects little brother…..or …..Big fish swallow little fish.
The big picture is much,much bigger than this…..but it is a place to start from.
If the United States of 1812 had annexed BC wouldn’t modern day Canadians want it back?
ah…so its sort of a bad memory that Turkey used to be bigger…but what has that to do with Assad ?
And now the Turks are funding ISIL but becoming victims of ISIL…is Ergodan in charge of that ?
In my opinion it is mainly a sectarian issue. Erdogan is rather fanatical (Sunni) sectarian and he doesn’t like it that the Alawite Assad is ruling Sunni majority Syria. At some point Erdogan or one of his officials even explicitly said that the next ruler of Syria should be a Sunni. This led to an uproar in the West so they haven’t repeated it. But it makes clear where they stand.
Syria is run by Alawites (Assad). Alawites are Shia. Turkey fears Shias (Iran).
Turkey wants to be a ME dominant.
Syria houses and protects Armenians who ran there from the genocide. Thus, Syria holds up the sign to the world that Turkey committed the genocide.
Syria is a nexus point in the ME. If Turkey can control most of it, Turkey can dominate another shoreline, pipelines and military bases.
Turkey wants to reconstitute the Ottoman Empire.
Erdogan is a megalomaniacal sort who is discovering that there are nations and ideas bigger than his, but he thinks he still can take out Assad.
Russia, Iran and China have something to say and are beginning to act openly about it all.
Its an interesting comment near the end about China ‘opening its doors’ and that 400 years ago ‘China closed its doors’…what was that ?
Off the top of my head, this may be way off, but my understanding of the history between the West (particularly Britain) and China starting from that time period is that things went roughly like this:
Britain et al: Wow, look at that silk and those fine ceramics and all that other snazzy stuff! We want some! Trade with us for it!
China: You barbarians have little we want. And buying your cheap clothes and fabrics would put our artisans out of business. Go away.
Britain: But we really really want your stuff!
China: Too bad.
Britain: Fine. We’re coming in with cannon and we’re gonna addict your people to opium so there’s something they need that we can supply, and take over some cities so we can make the rules there. You’re gonna “trade” with us whether you like it or not. Nobody stops us from getting what we want.
China: You bastards. We will get you for this someday.
(suffers at the hands of Westerners and, later, Japanese for a couple hundred years; Communist revolution finally takes back sovereignty, Capitalist sub-revolution creates massive growth, and now luckily for us they seem to have mainly decided that “The best revenge is living well”)
Thanks Purple Library…yes. that makes sense…I forgot the Opium War….how sad.
You forgot the very large Russian land grab. When Xi says unequal treaties, as he did on inauguration, he isn’t talking about Hong Kong these days. The Japanese pushed Russia aside to grab even more and there weren’t many people in the Russian bits. Still, the Middle Kingdom has a better claim on the Russian Far East than it has on, say , Tibet.
The Chinese sold tea but insisted on payment in silver rather than trade because silver was easier for trade officials to pocket. Exports were more difficult to control. At the time, opium was a popular drug in Europe. The maiden aunt drinking phials of Laudunam was a stock character in Victorian novels. Opium has been demonized in modern times by its association with heroin, a refined product, not then invented. The Opium wars took place but revisionism has been a major factor in evaluating them.
OT…I guess this whole Iran Nuclear deal and lifting sanctions…is to get at Russian Oil export….
http://rt.com/business/264481-iran-eu-gas-deliveries/
A charming episode indeed! They all seem rather nice and are benevolent in their observations and critic, as oppose to those tense, angry or disgusted faces one is use to seeing in such discussions… This was actually a dialog, and a pleasant one to hear. Thanks for posting it! Regards to all!
Thinks everyone has had enough, With turkey providing indirect fire support and logistics to terrorists they used regular Turkish troops to take another Syrian city. In response Hezbollah mobilized regular forces for reinforcements. This fight has now escalated to Sunni v/s everyone else. Iran is training people to send to Syria. They have advisors but all those people are not Iranian, even Afghanis and Pakistani’s. Must be in response to US training moderate terrorists to send to Syria. Syria and Iran also have a mutual defense treaty.
BEIRUT – A top pro-Assad daily in Lebanon has reported that Iran has deployed troops into northwest Syria in preparation for a counterattack in Idlib.
“During the last [few] days, and through a joint Syrian-Iranian-Iraqi decision, more than 20,000 Iranian, Iraqi, and Lebanese fighters have poured into the Idlib area,” As-Safir reported in a dramatic article published Tuesday.
“A mobilization of this size registers as a break from the undeclared Iranian-Turkish understanding, that direct and exposed confrontation between the two countries in Syria is to be avoided.”
“moderate terrorists”
LMAO, what a construct. Could be a freudian slip from Psaki or such.
We’ve known for thousands of years that – when criminals are not punished – crime spreads.
We’ve known for hundreds of years that the failure to punish financial fraud destroys economies, as it destroys all trust in the financial system.
We’ve known for centuries that powerful people – unless held to account – will get together and steal from everyone else.
Systemic Corruption Has Destroyed America ! – http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-03/systemic-corruption-has-destroyed-america
I often find it mind boggling at times when I think of the mentality of your average American taxpayer. Let us consider a moment, according to CNS News the number of Americans now in receipt of food stamps has topped 46,000,000 people, a vast number if they are lucky are in menial very underpaid jobs with no job security struggling to make ends meet as all the decent paying middle class jobs have all been outsourced to other countries where the cost of labour is cheaper and credible sources put the number of Americans without any health insurance at between 40 and 45 million. Their cities and basic infrastructure are slowly crumbling away due to lack of maintenance as local governments have no money to spend on their upkeep.
Their nuclear reactor plants are in dodgy shape again due to proper lack of maintenance and the government does its best to keep hushing up any accidents or radiation leaks that occur.
But then you see their government spending over half a trillion dollars on the military and defence which is over half of the annual national budget which should give any right thinking individual a pause for thought, especially when it also becomes known that the Pentagon and the DOD are the only government departments that have never been audited.
$8.5 trillion of taxpayers money has been awarded by congress to the Pentagon since 1996 and not one cent of this unimaginably vast sum has nor ever will be accounted for. According to Reuters:
“The Pentagon is the only federal agency that has not complied with a law that requires annual audits of all government departments. That means that the $8.5 trillion in taxpayer money doled out by Congress to the Pentagon since 1996, the first year it was supposed to be audited, has never been accounted for. That sum exceeds the value of China’s economic output last year”.
So while the middle classes are being wiped out in America a handful of very privileged people are running a very sweet scam with taxpayers money but your average American is seemingly too dumb to figure out what is going on right under their noses. These people are mafia pure and simple. They have the mafia mentality and the mafia way of operating, only on a global scale.
One last thing, On September 10, 2001, Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld held a press conference to disclose that over $2,000,000,000,000 in Pentagon funds could not be accounted for. Rumsfeld stated: “According to some estimates we cannot track $2.3 trillion in transactions”.
This was all forgotten the following day.
The records of that criminal investigation were all kept in WTC7..
“the number of Americans now in receipt of food stamps has topped 46,000,000 people,”
I do not want to be shopping in WalMart the day the EBT cards are turned off!
Chatham House forever lurks malevolent in the shadow of it’s big brash thug colony :
“………In their report, titled “Russian Challenge”, the experts of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, better known as Chatham House, advise for the preparation of further worsening of relations with Russia and an eventual change of guard in the Kremlin.
The authors underscore the need to strengthen NATO as a key instrument of “containing” Russia, to counter the “Kremlin propaganda” and recommend maintaining the anti-Russian sanctions until the complete settlement of the crisis in eastern Ukraine takes place.
The experts urge “to find better ways to communicate to the Russian people that it is in its long-term national interest to be a part of a rules-based Europe, not an isolated regional hegemon…….”
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150604/1022925847.html
‘Royal Institute of International Affairs’
The bw-itish version of Council on Foreign Relations,as bankrupt as the country itself.
The foreign office and bureacratic autocrats of bw-itain would like to pretend they are still relevant….but look how fast they rushed to join the Chinese initiative AIIB.
The Russians and Chinese are doing deals,not subjugating vassals like the old colonials.
Their language selection gives the game away.
Their days are numbered wrote :
“The foreign office and bureacratic autocrats of bw-itain would like to pretend they are still relevant….but look how fast they rushed to join the Chinese initiative AIIB”.
Im not so sure their joining the AIIB is such a good thing for the AIIB, depending on how the organisation itself is structured I guess. What the Chinese ought to realise is that by joining they become the enemy within so to speak. Nothing good or positive can come from the governments of the UK or the US and I strongly suspect they are merely the eyes of Washington within the organisation.
Here’s the link to the Chatham Whorehouse Report:
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_document/20150605RussianChallengeGilesHansonLyneNixeySherrWood.pdf
Col. Cassad has a digested brief on it today. Use Yandex to translate
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2216714.html
Dear Saker/Friends
You call it a great show. Look at these 3 Demagogue preaching as if the western so called “economic REFORM” drugs have cured anyone. It is a plague and they are generators of Plague. Peter should invite some really enlightened people who really knows economy. Not the German who has destroyed everyother one in Europe to have their profits.
What I observed in the discussions that they have no clued how the Russians are acting rather they only want their profits from Russia. Wait for some more years and see the fun as their economy would take of with the speed of Elephant not tiger if you all understand the difference between the Elephant and the Tiger. The Economy of China and India and Russia would never crash. By the way have every heard the economy of India has crashed??? Russia is well with China and India and hence it economy would not crash in future. Of course it is supported by also the friends of Latin-Am, Africa and the WORLD and not the world. Just wait and watch these three morons would only scratch their heads.
By the way one very interesting new. Russia has come to the conclusion of the need of GAS and OIL in the INDIAN market. A simply huge market for its resources. A very interesting engineering marvel of creating the GAS pipeline to India is going to take shape and then it would be a lots of fun. Also Indian economy is self sustained economy and India is working in all direction to become self reliant. With Russia and China it would be a lots of fun. Watch the future in the Asia or Eurasia…
The west can have fun with their Robotic/soulless society if they have a society….
Regds
Sanjay
Sanjay, you’re so right…that is what those American guys and the German guy are doing in Russia…making money off her. And for your final comment about robotic cultural society…how true…. I was talking to a friend here on SS and she is anti-Christian…I finally agreed that I also hate the Catholic Church, but I’m very Christian…and she didn’t know what to make of that….it had never even occurred to her that a person can be Christian without being part of a major Church…even a minor church…just spiritual. I hope that India continues to be what you think it is. Maybe I should move there. By the way, I have 5 horses…do you think there would be a place for them in India too ?
If one knows russian history, if one knows history of the Great Patriotic War, if one knows the increase of wealth since 2001, if one think russians remember the default of 1998(?); if one knows that russia has ~400 Billions in reserve, ~4000Billiones and more in gas and oil resources and people who went through terrible times not even half a generation away … how can s/he belive that the non availibility of some western consume trash would change the mind of the people and ask for a new goverment.
it is actually a brute harassement of russians to belive that.
Russia holds military exercise — in TRANSNISTRIA
http://fortruss.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/russia-deploys-special-operations.html
People are asking how they got there??? I think they were there already, same as the Polite People in Crimea last year. … and after which Transnistria asked Moscow to take them in as well, which of course is legally tricky.
Anyway they’ve had months to get a few extra people in there. There might be more than just reconnaissance groups, too.
Up yours, Tie-Eater!!!!
I want to give that last comment a great big tick. Made me laugh.
Prospects for weapon exports seem good. It will be even better is Russia pulls it off with the new weapons (having seen the F-35 JSF drama in the US I am rather skeptical as long as something is not really in mass production). But of course that is a rather government centered business: you need government orders to develop new weapons.
On the other hand the prospects for agriculture seem rather limited. For that you need infrastructure (roads and railways, education and research and a network of suppliers). I haven’t seen Russia investing much in that until now.
We see the same lack of attention in other areas like the Skolkovo center in Moscow. Developing an industry requires continuous attention from the government and I don’t see that in Russia. Macro-economic tricks like a currency devaluation help but you cannot go without attention to the details – and I don’t see that Putin paying that attention.
There is no such thing as caring capitalism?
Peter Lavelle, you’re my hero! Love your crazy socks! The black and white striped pair you wore on set the other day made me bust up laughing. Could you please wear Hello Kitty socks next time? Everybody loves Hello Kitty. The whole world would be in an uproar if they pulled the plug on RT after that. Nobody pulls the plug on Hello Kitty!
I agree with sk. Eric Kraus is okay but the other two are neoliberal market fundamentalists, which is not surprising as they work for the corrupt PWC and the bank with $80 millions of derivatives.
The PWC Brit wants to challenge the role of the state in the Russian economy which is corporate speak for privatizations. He wants to question state banks. Yeah, bring on the FED which is so much better! Even “structural reforms” – that favorite IMF buzzword for sucking the life blood out of a country – is mentioned.
Lavelle, presumably because he is a bit in awe of economists – who are the biggest bullshit artists on the planet- does not challenge these two right wingers. It is left to Mr. Kraus to explain that the much of the success of Japan, Singapore, China etc. is down to strong state help for business. But then that’s how PWC makes its money fixing the books and selling stupid but lucrative consultancy to companies that are in trouble.
They even manage to bad mouth Argentina. They should read Naomi Klein’s Shock Doctrine which explains in painful detail what the IMF and the Washington consensus did to this great country. I would like to see Michael Hudson take on these jerks.
Eric Kraus makes the most valid points concerning the Russian economy. The PWC guy is just full of neo-liberal BS. The DB dude is also a bit on the liberal side.
The problem with the talk is that nobody really mentioned Russia’s number one problem currently: A low rate of investment.
To remedy that, Russia needs to reduce wages (I know it’s painful, but it is also necessary if Russia wants to grow her economy at between 3 to 5%, which is perfectly doable)
Also, Russia needs to copy the Chinese model as much as possible, i.e. State-controlled and state-led capitalism.
The major banks, major oil and gas companies as well as major resource companies, plus all utilities should remain firmly under state control. The free market only causes disaster in these sectors. Being state-controlled does not mean that you operate outside of market conditions (which is impossible under global capitalism) but only that you operate natural monopolies or natural oligopolies under long-term planning and with the interests of the state under consideration.
Now, the private sector will come mostly in the tourist, retail and manufacturing sectors (which can also involve state-owned companies, as in the PRC) where free competition actually works.
Moreover, with the right industrial policy, plus cooperation with China (also South Korea, and also western corporations that will brave the sanctions, which some of them do) Russia can become an industrial powerhouse again. I am not saying that she can become Japan/Germany overnight, but significant growth can ensure within the coming decade, since Russia has the advantage has two significant advantages over the most advanced countries: a) Lower wages and b) more plentiful, cheaper and locally sourced energy and raw materials.
“…Russia’s number one problem currently: A low rate of investment.
To remedy that, Russia needs to reduce wages (I know it’s painful, but it is also necessary…”
How do you figure reduced wages will create more investment? The first thing it would do is reduce the money available for buying things, which means fewer sales. That prospect has to be bad for business, certainly not worthy investing more just to make fewer sales, is it?
Yes, I am aware of theories that say “invest in an existing business then make your profit by cutting all the costs, starting with the wages”. That is called making your profit on screwing the workers, not on improving or expanding the business.
The real cause of low investment in Russia is the reluctance of the banks to lend for medium and small business, having little experience with that type of lending. Interest rates are high and they may require up to 130% security and an immediate start to payments. This is useless for developing a business that takes time by nature, eg you can’t produce new cattle any faster than they’ll breed.
Going on comments in recent televised sessions,. Putin is aware of this problem, and they are working on some development banking scheme to provide this type of loan. The aim is to encourage local entrepreneurs, not to enrich investors who come with their own money or their own (especially foreign) funding sources.
Russia’s Sberbank to launch Islamic banking
http://www.worldfinance.com/home/russias-sberbank-to-launch-islamic-banking
You realise that is a game, pretence, a fakery?
They do Islamic banking here in Australia, where I live. The bank calculates the interest over the term of the loan and adds it to the capital. So if your loan is 100,000 and the interest over 20 years would come to 45,000 they just lend 145,000. Same thing, it’s just not called “interest”. In fact I think they miss out on the interest rate fluctuations that, on home loans, sometimes lower the monthly payment for people with normal loans.
Still, it’s a good sign they are seeing enough growth in the Islamic republics that they see the need for this. (I bet a multi billionaire type of Islamic investor doesn’t worry much about paying or charging interest, but this is a good move for smaller investors, entrepeneurs).
Here, for all who believe in Anglo/American miracle money this is what happens when ‘economists’ are let out.
Clarke and Dawe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5QwKEwo4Bc
and
https://www.youtube.com/user/ClarkeAndDawe
Up to 200% security actually.
In a capitalist economy (even a state-capitalist economy) what drives investment and consequently growth, is profits, and more to the point, the rate of profit. This is Marxist economics 101. For such a policy to be at maximum efficiency, maybe capital controls should be introduced, so as to make certain that the high profit rates of capitalist enterprises within Russia stay put and are re-invested straight back into the Russian economy. This is precisely what East Asian economies have been doing for several decades now and with astonishing results to boot (especially the PRC)
The idea that “aggregate demand” is what drives growth, and since the biggest component of aggregate demand is consumption, the state must always seek to maximize consumption (unless high inflation) is not even Keynesian. It is “neo-Keynesian” as proposed by such mediocrities as Paul Krugman, Stiglitz and some “Social-Democratic” politicians in the US and Europe.
The good news, is that the reduction in Russian wages has already taken place during the past year or so due to the devaluation of the Russian currency.
To be certain, low wages on their own do not guarantee a high rate of growth. You need the proper investment environment, a strong state to mediate, the right infrastructure, the specialized labor, the networks of suppliers, natural resources, markets to sell to etc etc etc. Russia ticks some of those boxes, but not all, so the government of the Russian Federation must work towards those goals.
http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/2015/04/how-singapore-achieved-a-higher-per-capita-gdp-than-the-us.html
http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/2015/03/the-fundamental-economic-lesson-from-lee-kwan-yew.html
http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/2015/01/it-is-crucial-for-china-to-have-an-accurate-analysis-of-the-sources-of-economic-growth.html
Dear Saker/Friends
I am still in awe what makes you think it is a “GREAT SHOW”. It is pathetic to see how criminals and pimps are brought on to the show as expert. just listen a couple of times and I felt what a waste of time and energy and Peter as usual doesn’t know how to give a deeper thinking on anything. May be he is running out of steam. But it is pathetic to see the 3 Western Reformer who want to question Russian economy.
Who are they to question??? As I said wait for few more years.
REgds
Sanjay
For the World Economy as a whole,the most important issue is the eighteen trillion dollar debt of the US Govt.Any rise in the Interest rate will cause default in interest payments alone.I heard a news item today in NPR (National Public Radio),that the MF was recommending the non-raising of interest rates on the part of the US Federal Reserve.They must be worried about consequences.