Ceasefire in Novorussia

Afterthought said “The Ukrainians were stupid, but The West was evil”. I would say that the Ukrainians were suicidal, the West stupid and US evil.

Roll on Tue for the preliminary findings from the NH17 crash investigation. At worst it will be inconclusive, at best it will show that it was brought down by air to air missiles. If the latter happens then it will be a game changer.

I’ve said it before but I’ll repeat it. The Ukraine will end up begging RF to rescue her or accept an IMF/European bailout in exchange for asset/resources stripping of the country.

We are entering the age of resource wars like we’re never seen before; the natural consequence of the peaking of fossil fuel extraction rate of the planet.

From my Moscow colleague:
“The rebels in Donetsk and Lugansk regions have changed the whole military situation, and Putin suggested a peacemaking plan. The sides negotiated in Minsk and agreed yesterday to stop shooting. This is good news, but probably Ukraine army will start attacks again after they take out several thousand soldiers of encirclement and regroup their troops. Previously the Ukrainians broke peace agreements in this way.

“Another problem is that political compromise seems impossible. On the one hand, the rebels do not want Donetsk and Lugansk regions to remain parts of Ukraine anymore, after the thousands of civil victims of bombings by Ukraine army. On the other hand, president Poroshenko talks only about modest concessions like partial economic autonomy of these regions and expanding locally the rights of Russian language. Nowadays this is too small. Hopes of peaceful solution of the conflict now are therefore very weak.”

Katherine

If we are to believe the NYT and Colonel Cassad, what was signed was polpotposhpig initial plan. If true, everything has been in vain. It could not be worse. But the fascists are bloodthirsty, they will not keep the ceasefire, already breaking it.
Any case, it smells as treason, up to the unpresentable details.BAD

Interesting article, as always, from Cassad on the “ceasefire agreement”:

the policy of the Kremlin, which is manipulating the situation by turning the valve of the “military surplus store”, remains one-legged: on the one side the republics are not allowed to perish, but on the other side this aid is quite measured and directed to achieving certain limiting results from the positions of achieving which it is supposed to negotiate with the junta and its masters.

The problem is that the USA are absolutely not interested in this. And it is precisely their opinion that will be crucial to how the war in Donbass will develop and where the future borders will be drawn. The USA, as it is not hard to see, are not concerned with the negotiating movements of Kiev and Moscow too much. They are eagerly building a coalition for yet another conflict, feeding the fascist regime in Kiev simultaneously.

Also interesting: a Russian ambassador stated yesterday that it’s “natural” that Mariupol will be “liberated” by pro-Russian forces. Something to chew on, I suppose.

Gayle at 13:44 and 14:02 – I hate to see you troubled. Cassad’s always in grave despair when he talks about geopolitics and Moscow’s shortcomings, as he perceives them. He’s a lot better on straight tactics – check this one from today instead of yesterday:

http://slavyangrad.org/2014/09/06/kiev-going-on-the-defensive

It’s quite clear that Ukraine forces have flipped from offensive to defensive now. The theater is actually now too big for the Ukrainian forces that remain. But not for NAF, so long as it proceeds very carefully and cleverly, and at its own pace – all of which I suggest is part of what’s happening now with this attempted consolidation through ceasefire negotiations.

Ukraine is NOT going to get any game-changing reinforcements for its army or the outdated weaponry now left to it, and all this fabled “help” from US is a fantasy. A few advisers and fixers is about it.

As to ceasefire terms – I gather from upthread comments that the first three points only have so far been agreed – this is why no terms are published, they’re still being discussed. The three points are: ceasefire, prisoner exchange (200 NAF for 1,000 Uke – those numbers tell us something), and open corridors for humanitarian aid. So RF pours materiel into Novorossiya and it’s the only snug and warm place this winter.

As to ceasefire itself – maybe Poro’s troops will cease and only the oligarch troops continue? That’s fine, NAF’s obviously not going to stop fighting wherever it’s opposed by fire – maybe this is a cleaner way to destroy the oligarchs? I don’t know, I leave this to the analysts and the commanders.

Mariupol is being reinforced – of course because Kiev is in defensive posture now – but it’s also surrounded by NAF. It was always going to be a delicate task to regain that town without a massacre of the innocents. The soldiers will figure out the best way to do this.

As to the only real weapon of the US – treachery – there’s really only false flag left. But as we saw with the plane shoot-down, every false flag used is now destroying the credibility of the false-flag method, and credibility is its only value.

Many birds have been and are being hit by this Ukraine stone – and Russia is using the absolute minimum of resource to gain the absolute maximum of effect, across all those many birds. Very few pieces have had to be sacrificed in this game so far. And if the human being is indeed the greatest wealth-creating resource of all – as Putin seems to understand and the West has long forgotten – then all of Putin’s moves toward the saving of good lives (and the destruction along the way of bad lives) are valuable.

Keep the faith.

Gayle

Think about the ceasefire; by near unanimity analysis, it will not hold.

Will Russia say: No Mas! and leave Ukraine alone?

The truce is to get in more relief, reestablish the political structure of governance for the Novorossiya Putin wants, and analyze the new equipment and troops (from NATO countries). This is the Intel that will then be matched from the Russian side.

Don’t think USA is the final stamp of approval. This is bogus. Russia has been thrown out of the syndicate. The big Mafia family of the Hegemon wants Russia and Putin dead. They’ll divide the leftovers.

However, El Murid’s view is interesting. He thinks the USA remains triumphant because Strelkov is gone. Ridiculous. Strelkov in geopolitical terms does not even exist. An irrelevancy. On the scale of geopolitics he is no more important to outcome than you or I. His purpose was served. He organized the beginning. He put a face on the first Army. That was what he was chosen for. He served. He’ll get a medal and pension.

This is about Russia, whatever name or compound of elements you might think of as a nation rising in the 21st Century. The largest land mass under one banner. Historic. Defender of the Orthodox. Destroyer of Nazis and triumphant against invaders.

Putin knows the 21st Century is a plutocratic world, a world of oligarchs of wealth and oligarchs of crime. He has the gifts to deal with them. And I believe he has determined that the steppes right next to Russia is the dojo mat where he will defeat the NATO invaders and, with his economic weapons and shields, where the Hegemonic sanctions will be turned against the Western markets. We see the EU hurting badly already. Their agricultural business is in ruins.

This is so much larger than Donbass and what the good people there envision for themselves and why they fight and die.

This is an enormous struggle against the evil of the Elite Rulers of the international system versus the rise of Russia and China and the other developing nations and emerging economies of the world.

Russia was attacked first because it was easier and weaker than China, though it has ten times as many nukes ready to defend itself. The naive thought Ukraine was the perfect proxy.

The US is flailing, like Obama’s arms and hands yesterday trying to explain his pathetic “strategy” against ISIS.

Putin has taken the measure of all of them. He will take as much time and use whoever he needs to use to win this war. He is not concerned with the local heroics of the militia. He knows weapons win battles, Intel positions the forces and polemics is not strategy. What we read from the wails of Col. Cassad and El Murid are inconsequential to the war Putin fights.

This may go on for a year or more. The Hegemon thinks it has trapped the Bear. I see it the other way.