By Pepe Escobar – posted with permission
If Tehran blocks the Strait of Hormuz it could send the price of oil soaring and cause a global recession
Iranian soldiers take part in National Persian Gulf Day in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30, 2019. There is concern about a blockade of the Strait and the disastrous impact that could have on the price of oil and world financial markets. Photo: AFP / Atta Kenare
Unlike Deep Purple’s legendary ‘Smoke on the Water’ – “We all came out to Montreux, on the Lake Geneva shoreline”, the 67th Bilderberg group meetings produced no fire and no smoke at the luxurious Fairmont Le Montreux Palace Hotel.
The 130 elite guests had a jolly good – and theoretically quiet – time at the self-billed “informal discussion forum concerning major issues”. As usual, at least two-thirds were European decision-makers, with the rest coming from North America.
The fact that a few major players in this Atlanticist Valhalla are closely associated with or directly interfering with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel – the central bank of central banks – is of course just a minor detail.
The major issue discussed this year was “A Stable Strategic Order”, a lofty endeavor that can be interpreted either as the making of a New World Order or just a benign effort by selfless elites to guide mankind to enlightenment.
Other items of discussion were way more pragmatic – from “The Future of Capitalism”, to “Russia”, “China”, “Weaponizing Social Media”, “Brexit”, “What’s Next for Europe”, “Ethics of Artificial Intelligence” and last but not least, “Climate Change”.
Disciples of Antisthenes would argue that these items constitute precisely the nuts and bolts of the New World Order.
The chairman of Bilderberg’s steering committee, since 2012, is Henri de Castries, former CEO of AXA and the director of the Institut Montaigne, a top French think tank.
One of the key guests this year was Clement Beaune, the European and G20 counselor to French President Emmanuel Macron.
Bilderberg prides itself for enforcing the Chatham House Rule, according to which participants are free to use all the precious information they wish because those who attend these meetings are bound to not disclose the source of any sensitive information or what exactly was said.
That helps ensure Bilderberg’s legendary secrecy – the reason for myriad conspiracy theories. But that does not mean that the odd secret may not be revealed.
The Castries/Beaune axis provides us with the first open secret of 2019. It was Castries at the Institut Montaigne who “invented” Macron – that perfect lab experiment of a mergers and acquisitions banker serving the establishment by posing as a progressive.
A Bilderberg source discreetly let it be known that the result of the recent European parliamentary elections was interpreted as a victory. After all, the final choice was between a neoliberal/Green alliance and Right populism; nothing to do with progressive values.
The Greens who won in Europe – contrary to the US Greens – are all humanitarian imperialists, to quote the splendid neologism coined by Belgian physicist Jean Bricmont. And they all pray on the politically correct altar. What matters, from Bilderberg’s perspective, is that the European Parliament will continue to be run by a pseudo-Left that keeps defending the destruction of the nation-state.
Just like Castries and his pupil Macron.
The derivatives clock is ticking
Image: Wikipedia
The great Bilderberg secret of 2019 had to do with why, suddenly, the Trump administration has decided that it wants to talk to Iran “with no preconditions”.
It all has to do with the Strait of Hormuz. Blocking the Strait could cut off oil and gas from Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Iran – 20% of the world’s oil. There has been some debate on whether this could occur – whether the US Fifth Fleet, which is stationed nearby, could stop Tehran doing this and if Iran, which has anti-ship missiles on its territory along the northern border of the Persian Gulf, would go that far.
An American source said a series of studies hit President Trump’s desk and caused panic in Washington. These showed that in the case of the Strait of Hormuz being shut down, whatever the reason, Iran has the power to hammer the world financial system, by causing global trade in derivatives to be blown apart.
The Bank for International Settlements said last year that the “notional amount outstanding for derivatives contracts” was $542 trillion, although the gross market value was put at just $12.7 trillion. Others suggest it is $1.2 quadrillion or more.
An Iranian Navy warship is seen in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30, amid talk that Tehran may block the Strait if relations with the US plunge further. Photo: AFP / Atta Kenare
Tehran has not voiced this “nuclear option” openly. And yet General Qasem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force and a Pentagon bête noire, evoked it in internal Iranian discussions. The information was duly circulated to France, Britain and Germany, the EU-3 members of the Iran nuclear deal (or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), also causing a panic.
Oil derivative specialists know well that if the flow of energy in the Gulf is blocked it could lead to the price of oil reaching $200 a barrel, or much higher over an extended period. Crashing the derivatives market would create an unprecedented global depression. Trump’s former Goldman Sachs Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin should know as much.
And Trump himself seems to have given the game away. He’s now on the record essentially saying that Iran has no strategic value to the US. According to the American source: “He really wants a face-saving way to get out of the problem his advisers Bolton and Pompeo got him into. Washington now needs a face-saving way out. Iran is not asking for meetings. The US is.”
And that brings us to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s long, non-scheduled stop in Switzerland, on the Bilderberg’s fringes, just because he’s a “big cheese and chocolate fan”, in his own words.
Yet any well-informed cuckoo clock would register he badly needed to assuage the fears of the trans-Atlantic elites, apart from his behind-closed-doors meetings with the Swiss, who are representing Iran in communications with Washington. After weeks of ominous threats to Iran, the US said “no preconditions” would be set on talks with Tehran, and this was issued from Swiss soil.
China draws its lines in the sand
Bilderberg could not escape discussing China. Geo-poetic justice rules that virtually at the same time, China was delivering a powerful message – to East and West – at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
The Shangri-La dialogue is Asia’s top annual security forum, and unlike Bilderberg, held like clockwork at the same hotel in Singapore’s Orchard Road. As much as Bilderberg, Shangri-La discusses “relevant security issues”.
A case can be made that Bilderberg frames the discussions as in the recent cover story of a French weekly, owned by a Macron-friendly oligarch, titled “When Europe Ruled the World”. Shangri-La instead discusses the near future – when China may be actually ruling the world.
Beijing sent a top-of-the-line delegation to this year’s forum, led by Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe. And on Sunday, General Wei laid down China’s unmistakable red lines; a stern warning to “external forces” dreaming of independence for Taiwan, and the “legitimate right” for Beijing to expand man-made islands in the South China Sea.
By then everyone had forgotten what Acting US Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan had said the day before, accusing Huawei to be too close to Beijing and posing a security risk to the “international community”.
General Wei also found time to rip Shanahan to shreds. “Huawei is a private company, not a military company… Just because the head of Huawei used to serve in the army, does not mean his company is a part of the military. That doesn’t make sense.”
Shangri-La is at least transparent. As for Bilderberg, there won’t be any leaks on what the Masters of the Universe told Western elites about the profitability of pursuing the war on terror; the drive toward total digitalization of cash; total rule of genetically modified organisms; and how climate change will be weaponized.
At least the Pentagon has made no secret, even before Shangri-La, that Russia and China must be contained at all costs – and the European vassals must toe the line.
Henry Kissinger was a 2019 Bilderberg participant. Rumors that he spent all his time breathlessly plugging his “reverse Nixon” – seduce Russia to contain China – may be vastly overstated.
One wonders
“Iran has signalled its readiness to use its “secret” weaponry in order to sink US warships which were earlier delivered to the Persian Gulf region.
“America […] is sending two warships to the region. If they commit the slightest stupidity, we will send these ships to the bottom of the sea along with their crew and planes using two missiles or two new secret weapons,” General Morteza Qorbani, an adviser to Iran’s military command, told the semi-official Iranian news agency Mizan.”
“He really wants a face-saving way to get out of the problem his advisers Bolton and Pompeo got him into. Washington now needs a face-saving way out. Iran is not asking for meetings. The US is.”
That’s the exact same situation Obama was in. The idiots in Washington lied themselves into a corner, as usual, and needed a way out of the mess these dimwits themselves created. So they signalled to Teheran that they would do a deal and drop the sanctions if Iran at least winks in the direction of a nuclear weapon, which Iran never pursued, never wanted and never considered, contrary to the entire US narrative about Iran.
So Iran humoured the dummies in DC, alluded to some way of pursuing a nuclear weapon which allowed the US to gain a form of face-saving legitimacy, which brought them to the negotiating table and they made a deal to get the US’ stupid nuts out of the fire. In comes Donny “Deal-maker” Trump. Too dumb to recognize what the deal actually was, rips it to shreds, dashes any and all trust and good faith the previous morons desperately scraped together and now realises how utterly stupid this move was and seeks another way out of the mess HE created… I don’t think Teheran is eager to provide the next idiot, and then the next idiot after him with more ways out of this. I think they are done with the West, they have seen nothing but ugliness and betrayal with nothing in return. Donny boy better hope he is NOT re-elected, because if he is, he owns this economy, he has been harping on for 2 years that it’s thanks to him that the US economy is doing so “good,” which in reality it isn’t, it’s about to explode, with or without Iran’s help.
The next crash is coming and no matter what actually triggers it, whether he is responsible or not, he will be blamed for it because of his idiotic tariffs, his sanction policy, his middle eastern policy, he owns it. His only way out is being left in the dust by a democrat at the ballot box.
Iran is more than happy to see the West collapse, who can blame them? Iran will take the West with it if their economy, statehood or society is facing collapse because of illegal Western sanctions and pressure. Again, who can blame them for the stupidity of our own leaders.
PS: Trump got himself into this mess all by himself. Bolton and Pompeo were picked by him BECAUSE of their stance on Iran, which he has been harping on since before he announced his presidential bid. His previous national security advisor Mike Flynn was also a big anti-Iran hawk. Trump hates Iran, he owns this mess, not Bolton or Pompeo, his stupidity got him into this and truth be told I am getting fed up with people in alternative circles making excuses for Donny boy and shovelling all responsibility onto the people HE picked himself. He is responsible for this, he is responsible for picking them, he is responsible for whatever these knuckleheads are doing.
So if he wants talks w/Iran and they refuse or resist, that’s his fault for picking them? Ok, but what if there never was anyone to be picked who would want talks w/Iran, what then, riddle me that.
Plus his anger towards Iran could have been spurned on by a pretty wicked witch for all we know.
You’re telling me out of 300 million people, he can’t find 2 who want peace with Iran? He put people in positions of power who never had political office before, he put his own family in positions of power, and you say he can’t find anybody, in the entire US, who wants peace with Iran? And as I said, Trump was anti-Iran before he announced his campaign for president, don’t tell me he wants talks with Iran. If he wanted that, he would take care to build some good faith, not hit them with a stick 24/7 then proclaim he wants talks, his words are rendered meaningless by his idiotic actions.
That’s what i’m saying, we are in the middle of a political civil war here, it is not advertized, but the disfunction flows in every direction and is interpreted 6 ways to Sunday.
There are checks and balances to keep the nuclear option neutered, but other than that, all options are on the table.
Totally agree. There are some decent people in the USA. All marginalized by the ‘real owners’, the banks, military, lobbyists, and foreign power interests hidden in plain site while blaming Russi, China, Iran, etc etc.
The real owners have power but are otherwise spiritually, morally, and intellectually bankrupt. They should have been tossed into the ICC decades ago. Yet people themselves are so brainwashed, they don’t see this and not only don’t see alternatives, they actively suppress them. To wit: Trump just went to promote fracking as the answer to US energy needs, while China is spending billions on hydrogen fuel cell technology. And yes there are US fuel cell companies, but they’re mostly starving, since the government doesn’t support them, instead supports fracking.
Just plain stupid, they can’t even see they’re harming themselves and Putin has pointed out on many occasions.
I don’t recommend it, but if you dare, spend a day consuming the media that average Americans consume. I’m not talking about the minority that become obsessed with politics, but the majority. Remember even a Presidential election gets only a little over half of eligible Americans to even bother to do the simple task of casting a vote.
I worked in call centers for awhile, and during the leadup to the 2012 elections. Among the work force, politics wasn’t mentioned. The latest in reality TV shows was well known. Perhaps American idol. One guy dreamed of being an MMA fighter. But politics wasn’t mentioned and wasn’t talked about and wasn’t followed, not at all.
Brainwashed isn’t a bad description. But its more by misdirection. The lies told Americans about politics and foreign affairs aren’t even heard by most. They’ve been misdirected away from politics entirely. The lies about politics are simply there as a back-stop to catch any who might have the vague notion that relations with nuclear powers might actually be important. But for the generation who grew up with duck n cover drills under school desks, at least we knew the dangers of the world. Later, we went on to force moves towards disarmament. But the current generations have no idea of what’s going on and what might happen. They couldn’t identify people like Pompeo or Bolton, not even in this age when the world is at 2 minutes to midnight and in great danger.
Not just in the US but right across the ’empire’. Mostly all zombies.
Indeed they weren’t picked by Trump but by those who pull the strings the billionaire club,they were put into place to make sure that Trump stays on script, that’s why the deal with N.K. went nowhere for they were afraid that the two Korea’s would become one and another power block created,and of course Israel stated that Trump tore up the agreement with Iran because they ask him to.There are sane people in Washington but they can’t come from the neocon ranks or the 1% and that includes both parties.!!!
OK, but somehow I doubt that any puppet masters chose Ivanka and Jared to be significant members of the Trump administration.
If the pups are so powerful and smart, why didn’t they nix the nepotism?
Katherine
Trump was their trump card! 8 years of Obama: they could not handle. Every thing he tried to do, the GOP blocked. Then they accused him of passing flawed bills: yet the GOP made it so. They are evil and why can we not call it out?
Trump is like Hitler: the German government thought if they elected him because the people like him, they could get power and control him; however, you can’t control malignant narcissism.
The elite in America are cannibalizing themselves. There is a chance for the 99% of us, who are all across the world in every single nation, to get together and take back our world! We don’t need fracking or being fodder for war mongers as we are caught in the middle.
We just want peace, not whatever this crap is. I am sick of being lied to and led around like I have no say on what happens to my own life any more.
Jim, what the world needs now is global co-operation to avert the ecological Holocaust, if it is not already too late. ‘Exceptionalism’ has to go. ‘Indispensability’ has to go. ‘Manifest Destiny’ has to go. ‘Full Spectrum Dominance’ has to go. ‘One Among Many’ can stay.
PS.
Just watched an interview of Jared the K by John Swan.
My god, he looks like a latex doll. He really does not look human.
Katherine
Kushner is said to be incredibly stupid with a very limited intellect.
His business activities hovered on the disastrous level/ 666 Fifth Avenue.
All he cares about and all he knows anything about are Israel, Israel, Israel.
I think he had really bad lighting and a bad make-up job. It shows an essential lack of competence in his staff if they would allow him to be presented in such a way. That being said, yes he is made of low quality latex, complete with a pull-the-string revolving vocabulary.
He isn’t, Katherine.
He’s an Auton-send for The Doctor.
It’s not so much that Trump “hates” Iran as that he takes orders from Ultra Zionists who hate Iran. Trump probably could not find Iran on a map.
(Removed language,MOD) he just does what he is told
Thanks for a little sanity. Bolton, as National Security Advisor, is in an advisory position only. As NSA, Bolton has no authority over the Departments of either Defense or State. Trump must grant approval for anything Bolton recommends. It’s also a bit silly how aggressive acts and policy shifts are always attributed to “Bolton” or “Pompeo” but acts to deescalate the situation and “talk” are attributed to Trump himself.
Strange tho but I read where Bolton ordered the carrier to the shores of Iran, and of course it was Bolton who blew up the meeting with North Korea,and of course its Bolton who’s making all the war talk against many nations which tells me that Bolton is in charge of far far too many things making him much more than a simple advisor,attack dog war hawk would fit him much better.!!
Diaria of the mouth is a favorite past time of his too.
This is more than a tad concerning because bolton as the loudist voice in the room tends to out bombast other players. I do not think shanahan is experienced sufficiently in the cesspool that is dc to stand up to bolton if/and when it is required. Worse yet, bolton has backers (e.g pence, pompeo) plus some of the most war mongering tanks so bolton can play to his audience.
And of course, trump does not instill any confidence whatsoever in being consistent one way another.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/amassing-war-powers-bolton-rips-page-from-cheney-playbook-shanahan-dod/
The fall of the Roman Republic also had their own Pompe!
Great post Serg.Simple truth.
Senor Escobar, usted son el mejor. Who else could write such a funny lede into this story? It sent me back to 1978 listening to Deep Purple on the AM radio in my pal’s LTD. Brilliant, man. So, are the masters of the universe feeling smug satisfaction at how well their New World Order is developing or is it all looking more than a little Yellow Vest-y out there?
Reverse Nixon? Way too late. The last 3 admins did a splendid work closing this option for good.
the US goal is Venezuela.
As I’ve said, the immediate target – and the one target that absolutely precludes a war with Iran until it is dealt with – is Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel can’t afford an Iran war until Hezbollah is degraded. And Israel can’t do that by itself.
So the US will join Israel in the next attack on Hezbollah, this summer or next summer. That is what those extra US troops and those B-52s are for – not Iran.
Israel and the neocons couldn’t care less about the “derivatives market”, regardless of what the financiers say. Only once Hezbollah is degraded will Israel start the Iran war – which the US will fight, regardless of the price of oil – which the oil companies will be happy with.
The Zionazis do care about derivatives. They will short the market once they know that an attack on the south Lebanese Shia is coming, just as they profited from falls in stocks after their 9/11 false-flag operation.
Is reality penetrating Washington DC ? We shall see. Time will tell. I don’t think the military option against Iran will be discarded so easily, not only because of Iran’s immense wealth in oil and gas, but also because of Israels animosity against the country. On the other hand Washington must understand what the political, economic and financial consequences would be if it launched an attack against Iran. No doubt this is being analyzed. The US threatened North Korea, and failed. It moved to Iran. Things are not going smoothly. This now leaves Venezuela.
What is making the situation dangerous is the fact that Washington DC probably has no idea what it really has to do, bearing in mind Wall Street is on itr’s back, demanding “business as usual” to continue. However, can it ?
The reason why the U.S. can’t start a war with Iran
— This powerful deterrent the Iranians were gifted by their good friends in Korea. Multiple reentry warheads and a range covering U.S. bases across much of Europe is a game changer 🇮🇷🇰🇵🇺🇸 🚀
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iran-s-most-powerful-ballistic-missile-khorramshahr-how-north-korea-s-musudan-was-adapted-for-middle-eastern-requirements
It’s a game changer because the US military fights like pussies instead of like men. So they’re adverse to casualties and if they can’t attack Iran with impunity… …it means they’re losers.
https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/12.0.0-1/svg/1f1ee-1f1f7.svg
There is zero reason to believe the bilge water in that ridiculous rag…Iran doesn’t need technical help from North Korea…the country graduates as many engineers as the US [with one quarter the population] and is very much a rising power in many areas of scientific endeavor, including genetics…
There may be cooperation between the two countries at the level of normal scientific discourse that we see generally, but the idea that Iran is buying entire missile ‘assembly lines’ is ridiculous…
Incidentally, how did the North Koreans develop such advanced technologies…?…a few years ago we were told they were living in caves…until suddenly they started sailing ICBMs over the heads of the US Pacific Fleet…
Nothing you see in these ridiculous US publications has anything to do with reality…Iran has major technical capabilities…
Fake “Climate Change” is just another way of raising taxes on the plebs. Climate has always changed and it has nothing to do with CO2. It is all to do with the sun. At the moment, we are entering a cooling phase.
Just you wait and see the price of food blow up over the next few years!
That is the only logical conclusion. Climate taxes will inevitably raise costs throughout the production/ distribution chain , and all those compounded costs will fall on to the price of food and fuel, which means the plebs will be able to purchase less of both. Other things being equal , it should result in fewer plebs.
Throw in a cool decade, and the numbers could be impressive.
A popular idea is to tax carbon and distribute the proceeds to the population, a so-called cap and dividend plan. That should allay your tender concern for suffering humanity. Once the wet bulb temperature hits 35 degrees Celsius, no amount of money will save an individual from death by hyperthermia.
On the contrary, it is the population at large who will pay the tax, and then receive it back , diminished only by the just and equitable amount due to those who administer the tax, for ” the greater good” , of course.
You obviously intend to have both feet in the trough.
The traditional position, Anon, is to have one’s ‘snout’ in the trough. Going feet first is the sign of poor etiquette.
Still, you cannot deny that both feet in the trough does give the snout a head start , so to speak.
It is NOT ‘all’ to do with Sun. It is mostly to do with the Sun, but the Milankovitch Cycles also control the movements in and out of ice ages and inter-glacial periods, and, without greenhouse gases like CO2 and water vapour the planet would be several degrees Celsius colder, and Life on Earth would be far more precarious. This is settled science, agreed to by ALL the Academies of Science and scientific societies on Earth, and c.99% of actively working climate scientists. It obeys the Laws of Physics, atmospheric chemistry and the greenhouse effect, known for c.200 years and seen in glasshouses etc. It cannot be negated by simple assertion, particularly as the evidence of its workings mounts day by day.
There is no scientific evidence that CO2 has anything to do directly with global warming. point. There are dozens of scientists that testify to this. I live in the hot tropics and it is getting cooler. yes there are hot days. since 2 years I have not used the fan. this is a fact.
Really? Even Donald Trump’s EPA says that it does.
“Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere are called greenhouse gases.”
Followed by …
“Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted through human activities. In 2017, CO2 accounted for about 81.6 percent of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.” A greenhouse gas is defined on the same page as a gas that traps heat in the atmosphere.
That’s what Donald Trump’s EPA says. Donald Trump is of course a famous climate change denier who also well known for not tolerating rival points of view in his government. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases
The physics of how greenhouse gasses work to trap heat in the atmosphere has been well known for decades.
And of course, local weather conditions is always a truly bad argument about global warming, whether in favor or against. Weather is a chaotic system that always varies, and even an effect like global warming can still among the chaos show local cooling. It is quite possible for instance that global warming means more ocean evaporation which means that inland could see more rain which would tend to cool things down at that one local location. Thus one local place can be cloudier, cooler and with more rain as a direct result of the earth and the oceans growing warmer.
The ice caps are melting. You see Russia talking about shipping traffic along its arctic coast (without ice breakers). There have been times in recent years when the north pole is no longer on ice but in open water. Big giant chunks of the Antarctic ice sheet break off each year. If you put a glass of ice water out on a table, then look over and see that the ice is gone, it would be odd to argue that the water isn’t warming. Those are not models or theories, but observed facts.
I’m very much afraid that your ‘dozens of scientists’ barely make a dent in the edifice that is ALL, I repeat every single one, without exception, of the Academies of Science and scientific societies on Earth, and thousands of climate scientists actively working in the field. And then you have the mountains, the Himalayas, of evidence from reality of melting ice-caps in the Arctic, Greenland, Antarctic and montane glaciers, rising global average temperatures, and average maxima and minima, warming oceans, changes in animal behaviour and plant distribution, leaf-burst, fruit set etc, the distributions of pests and diseases, spreading megafires and mega-floods, record deluges, the derangement of the jet-streams etc, etc, etc. You certainly have a lot of denying to do.
I wonder, Mulga.
January 2019 the IPCC published a `Summary for Policymakers’ (SFP), an announcement about the big decision principles for governments. Now see point A.2. on page 7, that states ‘anthropogenic emissions alone are unlikely to cause global warming’.
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_version_stand_alone_LR.pdf
When even the salafist IPCC admits this, then I have some doubts about the settled science. And the coming global cooling is predicted and warned for by scientists of NASA, or are they to be considered amateurs?
To worry about the consequences might be well-placed, but that we are able to adjust a thermostate of Mother Nature could be somewhat unlikely.
Cheers, Rob
It is not only not ‘unlikely’, it is certain and proven, Rob. The forcing of raising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere in the last 200 years, particularly the last forty (with subtle changes beginning with the agricultural revolution 10,000 years ago)is the largest and most rapid known in the last several hundred million years. Paleo-climate research has shown that ‘hot-house Earth’ conditions caused by such forcings, and various positive feed-backs (which we can see kicking in already)have almost certainly caused four or so of the five mass extinctions of Life in planetary history. The rise in global temperatures, average, maxima, minima and local, and in ocean temperatures show that adjusting the thermostat is not just possible through anthropogenic intervention, but is plainly happening, and accelerating as those positive feedbacks (eg warming soils, albedo flip in the Arctic, dying tropical forests, melting permafrost and submarine clathrates etc)kick in.
At present we are in the midst of the sixth mass extinction event. 90% of large pelagic fish are gone. Coral reefs are dying worldwide. Ocean floors are being trawled to rubble. Kelp forests and sea-grass meadows are dying, as are mangroves. Sixty percent of large wild animals have disappeared in the last forty years. And, to the surprise and horror of scientists, who did not see it coming, the insects, the bases of food-chains and pollination, are disappearing with unbelievable and dreadful rapidity. We are in deep do-do, like the dodo.
Proven , you say.?
Let’s see your proof , Noddy.
Dream on.
Is that you, Big Ears-all is forgiven.
Rob, the quote you present above refers to the long term effect of greenhouse gases previously released and currently present in the atmosphere. The point is that such gases that have already been released will not by themselves cause catastrophic temperature elevation in the future provided that carbon emissions can be controlled going forward.
See the following paragraphs:
Anthropogenic emissions (including greenhouse gases, aerosols and their precursors) up to the present are unlikely to cause further warming of more than 0.5°C over the next two to three decades (high confidence) or on a century time scale (medium confidence).
Reaching and sustaining net zero global anthropogenic CO2 emissions and declining net non-CO2 radiative forcing would halt anthropogenic global warming on multi-decadal time scales (high confidence).
Hopeful news actually.
You are dreaming.
China is currently building hundreds of new, coal-fired power plants. To counter China, “India has 589 coal-fired power plants, they are building 446 more, bringing their total to 1,036.” These figures are after both governments signed the Paris Climate Agreement, and touted their green credentials.
Since the US, Russia, China and India have the largest global coal reserves, and each country is vying for geopolitical dominance, they will continue using coal in record amounts.
I’ll be happy to take the extra CO2 ; I’ll turn it into food , fuel ,timber, and a deeper topsoil .
The water and nitrogen in the atmosphere will also come in handy to aid the photosynthesis of renewable energy, all powered by the Sun.
Gotta love those cycles :- carbon , nitrogen , and water.
The rate of greenhouse emissions is still growing, and the rate of increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (now at 415 ppm)is, if anything, accelerating. I’m afraid we have reached that tipping point of no return for hundreds of millennia where natural sources of greenhouse gases like warming soils, warming oceans, melting permafrost, dying forest, megafires etc, have taken over from the anthropogenic sources of, mostly, the fossil fuel industry. Our goose is cooked, as they say.
Yeah, you said. You may be afraid: I ‘ m not.
So no return of the ice sheets for now . . . .LOL
Whether we are afraid or not makes no difference to the Laws of Physics, those of thermodynamics or to atmospheric chemistry.
@Mulga Mumblebrain
The law of physics say that the sun is king and on earth the ocean is a huge energy buffer in comparison to the atmosphere which can be rendered almost insignificant in the calculations, because the netchanges are minimal the atmosphere stores energy mostly in form of moisture and movement and CO2 is an extremly tiny component to that.
What they want is to install weather modification and harvest the profits, THAT is their goal, the climate change hoax (the anthropogenic climate change hoax to be precise) is only a preparator.
The climate certainly changed the last thirty years I can see that myself no doubt, but that’s the sun or that huge electrically charged (50 Lightyears in size estimated) cloud our solar system is flying into, thus the changes on Jupiter and Saturn which are spectacular…a simple view to climate history of the last several thousand years will atest to the simple fact that climate is ever changing and always CO2 rises or falls AFTER the ocean temperature changes – because the ocean is the main reservoir..
Btw. how they measure CO2 levels is another mystery because it continously changes over the day starting the night all plants produce CO2 in vast amounts one can have 600 ppm in a forest easily in the early night. So you have to measure always at the same time for each longitudinal change – as always the devil is in the small details, same goes for altitude the nearer the ground the higher because CO2 is heavier than air..
@Mulga Mumblebrain
These 99% of climate scientiest’s clever models have no clue WHY Hannibal could cross the Alpes with elefants and average temperature was way higher than today.
Those who did the science before the climate scientists came along are called climatologists they study the development of the climate – at the smallest a statistical average of forty years (because less doesn’t make much sense doesn’t it ?) – they also are in possession of all the data regarding earths climate back several hundred thousand years, it was them who provided the data to uncover the hockey curve fraud within the IPCC ‘climate scientist’ community something which is conveniently shrugged under the carpet.
Also up to this date these climate ‘scientist’ are unable to provide the world with the target average climate temperature and without this the hysteria can go on forever because there will be nothing to compare to.
IPCC’s reports are NOT peer reviewed and thus grossly violate scientific standards.
It’s all about politics and readying parts of the world (those dumb enough to follow) for new taxations or more plainly for new profit generation schemes – first CO2 together with weather modification – then water, and of course – the be it all – air, ALL is to be commoditized – including slave labor camps for the unsocial air, water, food consumers with punishable low social ratings and zero credit. Humans as a whole are to be totally commoditized it’s only logic, the chosen ones thus have full control and start the de-population programs slowly and imperceptible because their trusts will surround every human skin tight.
‘Save the Planet’ is the perfect vehicle for total control and fascism – all for the good of humanity and the planet !!
One example e-mobility will increase net engergy consumption by about 20-30% caused by a myriad of factors – THAT’s great news ! The more the plebs will be punished for it several times over 1. By skyrocketing prizes and 2. A dense web of regulations and ‘taxes’ feeding the admin-apparatus and it’s elite plus the Master of the universe with the needed transfer of wealth.
If you think you have seen all the scams, just wait what else will come your way – you won’t believe it !!
Pepe presents what trump says as legit statesmanship. It’s not. It’s low order psywsr. “Good cop/bad cop” faggotry. Trump is a conduit for the most extremist israelonazis (likud & co.) to influence the most stupid, greedy and morals free segments of pindoland that supports these zionazi-gay traitors. It’s theater, israel’s trump regime wants to kill Iran by any means possible. Iran isn’t an israeli colony, it’s as simple as that.
The world is in a state unstable strategic disorder. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have more than simply economic consequences, serious as those are. The seismic repercussions on other global players risks bringing them into conflict with the US. ‘Unconditional’ discussions might prevent world war three – in the short term – where the pattern of history points.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
What is there to discuss? Lift the GD sanctions and treat Iran as a normal country, which it is. No more abnormal than any other country, all societies and cultures have their ‘quirks’.
Pompeo is saying, “we welcome talks without preconditions, and we keep the sanctions in place that WE illegally created, when you, Iran, become the vassal state which we define as ‘normal’.
Not sure which quality of his Pompousness is greater, stupidity or arrogance. And Iran rightly says there is nothing to discuss. The Americans are the problem, messing with their country since at least 1953.
I think of greater concern that the Americans know that the minute the hostilities start, Israel will suffer most as it will be showered with thousands of rockets right, left and center and no iron dome can protect it!
Magnífico análisis, gracias Pepe..!
Un abrazo desde Argentina..!
As soon as venezuelan oil is captured, the Strait may be closed with less harm, I think this is the plan since…
…so the plot is kinda failing…
President Donald Trump is a lot smarter than he is given credit for. He is an excellent campaigner and deeply understands how to recognize and find solutions to long-time nagging problems created by previous administrations. Mr. Trump ran a brilliant campaign in 2016 and worked extremely hard to win the presidency. He will very likely win a second term. When honest people realize Presidant Trump can be effective and help make positive changes they will decide to work intelligently with him and we will see the important changes to help humanity that so many of us desire. Trashing or hating Mr. Trump accomplishes nothing!
Trump is just like the Pied Piper of Hamelin. He plays his flute and hypnotises his murine admirers, who can relate to his pig ignorance, stupidity, misogyny, arrogance and insatiable greed. I saw a couple on TV this week. The Donald has slashed their food stamps, but the hill-billies from West Virginny is still gonna vote for him, by golly! Fifty percent of the population is, by definition, of below median intelligence, many way, way, down there. Of course Trump is going to win a second term. He may be the last US President of all, too. That’s called a ‘silver lining’.