By Rostislav Ishchenko
Translated by Ollie Richardson and Angelina Siard
cross posted with http://www.stalkerzone.org/ishchenko-poroshenko-escalate/
source: https://ukraina.ru/opinion/20180719/1020650035.html
When Petro Poroshenko unexpectedly became the president of Ukraine, he had two paths…
The path to the right assumed leaning on the Russophobic nazis inside the country and pursing an anti-Russian policy in the international arena. The path to the left dictated a compromise with the Southeast, even at the price of the informal independence of Donbass and an attempt to improve relations with Russia in the new post-Maidan conditions.
The second path corresponded with the state interests of Ukraine (it at least gave it the chance to preserve itself as a state), but was immeasurably more difficult. In addition, it didn’t give anything to Poroshenko personally, or at least nothing that Poroshenko considered to be of importance. If he went along this path and won, he would merit the glory of an outstanding statesman who saved a country that was on the edge of the abyss. If he went along it and lost, then he would be remembered as the person who tried to stop the “flood”, but was broken by circumstances of insuperable force.
All of this wasn’t interesting to Poroshenko. He was only interested in the opportunity to sharply increase his fortune (which was already not exactly small). In principle, all the actions of Poroshenko (like, by the way, the vast majority of his accomplices on Maidan – those who are both known to all and not known to anyone) testify to a certain defectiveness. All of them rush towards being in power at any cost (but not all of them succeed), and aspire to use power for impetuous personal enrichment, trying to surpass the most ancient aristocratic families and the richest financial dynasties of the West in terms of volume of assets, size of palaces, and plebeian tasteless luxury.
They behave like people who in their childhood and youth were despised by their classmates, unloved by their parents, who considered that those above them underestimate their talents, and now they try to prove how this world was mistaken about them. They do it as they are able to do it, in accordance with how they understand the concept of success – they try to become the richest, because in their understanding everything can be bought with money: power, the respect of people around them, intellect, and even beauty and youth.
They aren’t alone in their delusions. Such people exist in all countries. It is precisely they who invent legends about secret world governments consisting of owners of all terrestrial capitals who are known to nobody, and for who acting billionaires, kings, and presidents are just clerks.
And there are many like this in Russia too – both in the environment of “liberal” and “patriotic” (including the “left”) opposition. They fight against their own State, connecting their personal success to its defeat and destruction. But it is only in Ukraine that they could carry out for 25 years such intensive and effective negative selection of the elite that it, as a result, entirely consists of semi-competent, but terribly ambitious morally corrupt people who are ready for the sake of their primacy to kill everyone who is cleverer, more honest, more beautiful, and more successful than them – at least in something. And Poroshenko is the first among them.
And it is precisely for this reason that he chose the first path — the path to the right, to war and murders, and to the destruction of statehood and the liquidation of the means of livelihood of 43 million (at the time of him coming to power, already without Crimea) people. This was the path of least resistance and smallest risk (initially). In the political plan there was just a need to go downstream, without interfering in the civil war and supporting the EU and the US’ attack on Russia. In the personal plane unlimited opportunities appeared for the repartition of already divided-up property in his own favor and for the re-pumping of money from the State budget into his own pocket.
The dream of the idiot came true?
You might ask: why “idiot”, if he so skilfully solved his problems? Even if his purposes were immoral, he achieved them nevertheless. Answer: because it was clear from the beginning that his success is temporary. Refusing to control events, he became dependent on probability, and it was clear that such probability wasn’t on his side.
It was possible to not manage to work out that the policy of the EU and the US in relation to Russia will inevitably change if Moscow doesn’t break within two-three years. The strategy of suppressing Russia adopted by Obama-Clinton’s team was a strategy of a geopolitical blitzkrieg. The systemic crisis undermining the foundations of American might was already in full swing and the West couldn’t play the long game. It was possible to underestimate just how durable and consolidated Russia was. Eventually, even politicians and analysts in the US (including their “great” intelligence community and even more “outstanding” private analytical structures) considered that “Putin bluffs”.
However, it’s impossible to not understand that having destroyed the foundations of the life of your people, and at the same time barefacedly profiting on the death of the State, you become so toxic that the consensus of the same unsatisfied “bad boys” (which you once were too, when you dreamed to one day become president) will be quickly created inside the country, and external partners won’t put their neck on the line for the sake of a naive foreigner who unsuccessfully tried to attach himself to their bourgeois world. It doesn’t matter for them what the local leader is called and what title he has.
As Igor Kolomoisky – offended by Poroshenko in his deepest affections – likes to say: “It is necessary to steal from the profits of others”. Earlier bandits were simpler and formulated it more specifically: “It is necessary to be able to divide it up with others” — if not with the people, then at least with the ruling oligarchy. At least someone, at least some social class, at least some social group has to support you, realising that any governance, except yours, will be a catastrophe for them.
Poroshenko not only didn’t understand this, he also didn’t guess it and didn’t reflect on it. He was sure that if indeed he manages to break through into the presidency, then afterwards everything will be wonderful: the West will support him simply out of immemorial Russophobia, and he will multiply the internal opposition by zero, leaning on the West’s resources, including on its political support. Owing to his egocentrism, Poroshenko couldn’t even imagine that the West can turn away from him and support some other Ukrainian politician. After all, Poroshenko is so compliant, so yielding, so flattering and tender, and so quick to grab instructions. And the fact that he steals… oh well, others will steal too.
Poroshenko especially couldn’t believe that the West can turn away from Ukraine in general. But he can’t be criticised for this, since all the Ukrainian elite weren’t able to believe this for a long period of time either. Even now, Ukraine explains the change of the West’s attitude towards it by saying that “Putin bought everyone off”. Moreover, this still isn’t believed by everyone in Russia too (and not only among “leading experts on social networks concerning all matters”, but also among quite sensible people having a specified education and working experience).
Once again, I will repeat: the fact that objective circumstances developed against Poroshenko isn’t his fault — it happens to everyone. His fault and even trouble is that, having chosen the path of least resistance, he refused to control the circumstances, leaving himself to the mercy of probability. But probability has been kind to Poroshenko for a long time already; it allowed him to collect billions and to become president. A reasonable person would be cautious, they would think that the path from the very top only descends, but Poroshenko was betrayed by an illness characteristic of the Ukrainian elite — accuse intellectual insufficiency.
If he, like Tatiyana Chornovol, was suffering from a documented mental disorder, then there would be no problems. Incapacitated persons have judicial immunity, but how he got this job — let Nuland answer, since it was she who recommended him for the job. But stupidity isn’t a circumstance that absolves guilt in any Criminal Code. That’s why long before the expiration of his presidential powers, already by the middle of 2016, Poroshenko didn’t doubt that a loss of power for him would inevitably lead to the loss of property, capital, freedom, and, very possibly, his life. He is too hated by the people (including by the ruling oligarchy) and the subsequent government needs a whipping boy too much.
However, Poroshenko also made a big blunder concerning the question of preserving his power. While he still had the opportunity to organise the forceful suppression of his opponents (in the format of an informal coup), he was afraid of the West’s reaction to such arbitrariness and hoped that the West will forbid harming him anyway. But, at the time when the West made it clear that they don’t really care, Poroshenko’s opportunities to use force were very limited, and perhaps even more limited than he realises.
That’s why today Poroshenko places a stake on both disrupting the elections and winning them. This can seem like nonsense. What can someone who is hated literally by the entire country and whose team has already started to abandon them hope for? But it is necessary to understand that we are dealing with a Ukrainian politician, and Ukrainian politicians believe in any nonsense. After all, Yanukovych believed that if he doesn’t disperse the Maidan that the West organised in order to kill him, then the West will understand that he isn’t a bad guy at all and that he himself will be able to give the order to disperse Maidan later.
Well, and if someone is going to cancel/win elections, then they must have the corresponding strategy. And here it is necessary to pay tribute to Poroshenko. I think that the reason he made a choice that is logical in his situation is not because he has a great mind, but rather because he has a limited outlook that doesn’t allow him to find non-standard moves. A choice in favour of consistency. He again moved along the path to the right.
Poroshenko started playing a game called “one doesn’t swap horses while crossing the stream”. I.e., the country is in crisis, it is at war, the Motherland is in danger, and only Putin’s mercenaries can oppose the president in such a situation.
But people in Ukraine have already gotten used to there being a slow conflict in the Southeast of the country, and the sharpness of their feelings in relation to Crimea’s “change of nationality” became more blunt. In addition, people found out that it is possible to go to Crimea on holiday like before, it’s just that it became more comfortable and there is more order. Most Ukrainians are ready to renounce Crimea and Donbass so that the dollar, utilities, and salaries become “like they were under Yanukovych”. Therefore, people in Ukraine must feel a danger right where they live, directly under their house windows.
For the sake of this Poroshenko is ready to commit serious and bloody provocations, which would give him a formal reason to appeal to the patriotic feelings of the population, accusing his competitors of surrendering State interests. And if this doesn’t help, then it is always possible to remember that elections can’t be held in the conditions of a civil conflict. At first it is necessary to calm passions, and for this purpose – to introduce martial law and to punish those who are guilty of inciting the conflict, which purely incidentally will be most influential competitors.
Poroshenko didn’t lose hope of receiving autocephaly – unclear for who – from the hands of the Constantinople patriarchate. It will immediately explode the religious situation in the country, since it was already declared that immediately after obtaining autocephaly the schismatics who would thus be legalised will start expropriating not just certain temples of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, but all its monasteries – including lavras, temples, parishes, and communities. As there is no guarantee that Fener will risk attracting the anger of Moscow in the present conditions, Poroshenko prepares a spare option — declaring the creation of the Ukrainian local church via a State act (with the same consequences).
At the same time, during the last week alone, in the military sphere, the order was given to the Ukrainian Naval Forces to ensure free passage of Ukrainian vessels through the Kerch Strait, and also about the withdrawal of all voluntary formations from the zone of the Operation of United Forces (the former ATO). If to mean a provocation in the controlled military collision in the Southeast, then these are indeed those measures that are necessary for its preparation.
It is clear that Russia won’t start sending destroyers to chase away and sink Ukrainian rubber boats. At the same time, an armed escort of vessels by motorboats and lifeboats from the Ukrainian Naval Forces will put every attempt by the Russian Coast Guard to carry out an examination on the cusp of an armed conflict. Full-scale wars don’t start because two motorboats opened fired at each other. Keeping half the Black Sea fleet in the Azov water region at full military readiness in order to put pressure on the psyche of Ukrainian sailors is unprofitable and senseless if it doesn’t sink everything that leaves Ukrainian territorial waters under a naval flag. And if it does sink them, then it means war.
Thus, tension and conflict conditions in the Azov water region must increase, but in such a way that the red line isn’t crossed. And if a couple of Ukrainian naval rubber vessels will indeed be sunk together along with their crew due to imprudence, then it will be only beneficial for Poroshenko — it will confirm the “danger level”.
The same concerns Donbass too. Voluntary battalions are miscontrolled, they don’t always implement the orders of the command and are inclined to doing what they want. They were tolerated at the contact line because their tendency to spontaneously shell the positions of the DPR/LPR and to carry out periodic local attacks completely correlated with the military-political strategy of Kiev. But if a large-scale provocation is being prepared, which must have an effect on the population like an exploding bomb, but not lead to a conflict with Russia or at least a full offensive of corps deep into Ukrainian territory, then undisciplined volunteers will be an essential hindrance. Central command, in order to avoid unforeseen consequences, must control everything reliably – up to the last soldier.
Well, and finally, Poroshenko, along with his Ministry of Foreign Affairs, started working on disrupting the tripartite negotiations (Ukraine-Russia-EU) on the gas issue (preserving transit through Ukraine, which Kiev itself tried to obtain).
As we see, provocations are being expanded to domestic, international, and military policies — in all spheres available to Poroshenko. Thus, should he succeed, he hopes to then receive support from Trump’s opponents in the US and in the EU. The sharp aggravation of the military-political situation concerning Ukraine will give them an argument in favour of refusing to continue dialogue between the presidents of Russia and the US. It is doubtful that Trump will be able to overcome the pressure that would be put on him. And this means that the situation that is so frightening for the EU and outrages American hawks will return to how it was before July 16th, 2018, and Poroshenko will be one of the main persons involved in such a U-turn — the guarantor of Kiev pursuing the correct policy.
Having once gone on the path to the right, Poroshenko isn’t able to stop any more. He will look for the support of less and less adequate people and more and more anti-Russian and aggressive forces, raising the stakes like a gambler seeking to recoup what they lost. This compels his opponents to look for an alternative, more moderate position. But at this stage they have so far been unsuccessful. At a minimum, Avakov – who hinted about the need to reach an agreement with Donbass on the basis of a compromise – was immediately obstructed, because during the post-coup period, any thought about the possibility of a compromise was too actively excised from politics.
So it is unlikely that Poroshenko’s opponents will be able to play a peacekeeping role. Most likely, this would bring them success during elections, but they won’t be allowed to come to elections with such a position — they will be accused of treason and jailed. That’s why the only way they can outplay Poroshenko is if they raise the stakes even higher, causing conflict situations to spiral out of control, when it will be possible to accuse Poroshenko of being unable to resist challenges.
All of this doesn’t inspire much optimism concerning the near future of Ukraine, although it is necessary to say that Avakov’s attempt to reduce the potential of conflict testifies that, at a minimum, a part of the Ukrainian political circle isn’t ready to further bank on an escalation and would like to exit internal and external conflicts.
The only question is: how big is this part, and how ready is it to overcome the physical resistance of the Nazis raised, fed, and armed by them, and who don’t want any peace? Judging by the fact that all of them, like Poroshenko, over the last four years have assuredly moved along the path to the right, the probability of there being consistent systemic resistance to the policy of provocations is extremely low.
and Ukraine just received $500 million in the last days – that also helps re-start the war
here’s the link – its $200 million not 500 – https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/1580606/dod-announces-200m-to-ukraine/source/GovDelivery/
Interesting that the Pentagon does this right at the time that Trump-Putin were meeting for a summit.
Putin and the Russian leadership have surely noticed this, and that no matter what Trump says in person he is not the person making these decisions and neither can Trump countermand them.
The Russian Foreign Ministry and Putin have clearly stated that the situation in Washington is such that they cannot make a “deal” or sign a “treaty” or even seriously negotiate with the US or its President. Nothing can be trusted and the US inconstant disposition is both fickle and feckless.
Thus, words are meaningless in the discussions. Only actions have meanings.
For instance, at the final of the World Cup Putin and Macron agreed that France would send humanitarian aid to Syria, transported by Russian military cargo planes. 44 tons of aid arrived yesterday from France.
That’s how Putin makes a deal. Short term, specific, action-based.
The US is incapable of such behavior.
Trump is but 25% of a President. They have not allowed him full powers in any way, domestic or foreign.
In the areas he does have power, he is a major disruptor . (trade agreements broken, tariffs and sanctions enacted).
In geopolitical affairs, he prefers the role of Hegemon. With China, with Russia, with Iran, with North Korea, with Venezuela, with Bolivia, with Afghanistan, with Syria, with Iraq, are just some decisions he has okayed by the Military, by his CIA, by his State Dept.
Therefore, the slivers of topics or issues Putin could hope to “talk and gain traction” with Trump are very limited.
However, Putin also has leverage on major issues. Syria, oil, gas, North Korea, Ukraine and weapons sales to US “allies”.
As for the two powers working in tangent on any large global issues, the US sees itself as Hegemon and will never pair up with any nation on any topic or issue. The Exceptional Nation is completely devoid of any reality checks.
What can you expect of a country that flew a MOAB all the way to Afghanistan to kill 50 terrorists, the device so unwieldy that it is shoved out the back of a transport plane. But American yokels love the notion of such decisive power (even if it is militarily useless at it has been proven so to be.)
There will be no attack on Novorossiya in the near future that would have the slightest chance of success. In four years, the AFN have grown from a ragtag conglomeration of scattered units fighting the orcs to a seasoned, trained, organized and well armed army, and this fact is well known to the orcs.
As for some ramblings about some kind of orc navy effort to ‘guaranty’ access to the Azov, no one is restricting commercial traffic through the Kerch Straights. On the other hand, I would bet the farm that if one scratch is done to the bridge, the orcs will receive a spanking of world class renown, and the orcs know this fact.
Auslander
author
Never The Last One https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A Deep Look In To Russia, Her Culture And Her Armed Forces
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
Aulander
I fully agree with you. Poroshenko knows this too. However, one can never discount the possibility of an attack, especially if Poroshenko realizes that he is losing power.
Would Ukraine remain divided for the next 40+ years just like Cyprus?
Ukraine will cease to exist in any shape or form within next 5 years. In 40 years time no one will even remember this artificial state.
@Lumpenkoenig. It is hard to estimate the Kinetics, it may take more than 40 years because everything in human affairs — even the simplest and most obvious course of action — takes longer than one expects; but my reading of the Thermodynamics is that “Ukraine” — a fiat country — has no means of support for its continued existence. No need to divide what never was a whole.
Your last words are what I think has been the foundation of Putin’s strategy. “No need to divide what never was a whole.”
Ukraine, under sustained pressure, merely breaks on its fault lines. Novorossiya rises, is denazified by internal realities. The rest of the pieces go to historic ownership.
The frozen conflict, made so by Minsk 2, is the device applying the pressure.
The corruption and murders by Kiev is the fluid of the mechanics of internal collapse.
Native Ukrainian incompetence assures the entire process to be impossible for the West to reverse or even slow down.
Greed is the one mortal sin that consumes the sinner. Porky, the US corporations, the Khazarians will die at their banquet table, having stuffed the final flesh of Ukraine down their gullet and into their wallets.
It is almost unbelievable that there was no major Nazi attack on Novorosiya during the world cup. At least, not a major publicized attack.
I don’t think there was anything substantial that Russians could have threatened the Nazi American Terrorist Org. I’m beginning to think like one of the earlier posters. The NAF has advanced to the point where it is clear to even most fanatical Nazis that they would face total annihilation in an all out attack. To me, it seems that they are using NAF restraint to keep provoking as much as they can, and that’s it. This, too, will come to an end soon.
The clock is ticking for this so-called country. At this point, they are literally at Russia’s mercy. The World Cup was a prime opportunity to truly hurt Russia, and NATO missed out.
If you look at the phone calls Putin has had with other leaders, surprisingly, he has had 8 with Porky, most recently.
Prior to this period, nothing. Putin wouldn’t take a call or deal with him. Porky was left out of much of Normandy 4 meetings.
What could have been the change, the topic of the calls?
World Cup Security!
Putin obviously made Porky an offer he couldn’t refuse. And FSB operatives most likely visited Porky, his family and other lunatics in Kiev to indicate that their lives all were in the balance.
Even the psychopathic understand a cold hard barrel of a silenced firearm pressed to their temple.
I’ve got a hunch that the 8 phone calls were inquiries by Putin into the health and well-being of Porky and friends.
You hit the nail right on the head there Larchmonter445. It is the “cold hard barrel of a silenced firearm pressed to their temple” that psychopaths understand. No empathy but they sure do understand a genuine threat to themselves and it doesn’t have to be a silenced firearm.
I have thought for some time now that the only way the US deep state and its puppets will be overcome is by the creation of such a threat and its execution in a number, perhaps a large number, of instances. It is obvious that psychopaths recruit psychopaths and so the problems is very deep in western society (not sure about the east yet) and may be just too great to overcome, but perhaps not too great to control.
I suppose it is too much to hope for just now for a few operational and staffed guillotines to be set up here and there in the USA, but maybe in a couple of years? As I recall it worked well in France in the late 1700s
For many years, I have been convinced that chaos and civil war were the only possible future for the USA. I was in Iran in 1977-78 and what you say about the the termination of the US deep state is exactly what happened there; not many, just a few key ones at just the right time and place and the rest were going through the fences to get out of there. It was amazing how well that method worked and how bloodless (and Cuba-like) that revolution was. It was all over by New Year 1978-79.
I have few doubts that Orcland was also pointedly reminded that twice, Mother has called back NAF (Novorossiya Armed Forces) when they had the orcs running like the dogs they are. This was after the summer cauldrons of ’14 and Debaltsyevo in early ’15, and it is within the realm of possibility that VVP mentioned to the head orc that there will be no third time halt to an NAF offensive if the orcs push them beyond the limit.
The borders of Novorossiya that I hear mentioned are the borders of the two oblasti, Donetsk and Lughansk, and a 40 kilometer clean zone opposite these borders where anything in the way of weapons more than a child’s rubber band slingshot will be visited by a packet of Grads. This packet will be followed by an extension of the clean zone until the orcs get the message loud and clear.
Auslander
For a moment there, Mr. Ischenko touched upon the fatal flaw of all right-wing, fascist movements.
They are all about power. Power for the individual. Its all about the individual grabbing as much power for themselves as he or she can. This includes the state. The state is a tool of power, thus the ambitious fascists seek to seize that power. They want that power for the same reason they have been questing after power as an individual. For their own reward. They want power so they can be wealthy and so they can grab even more power. A state is just a tool for this. Patriotism is just a myth that they sell and use along the way to get others to give them their power.
We’ve seen this in all fascist governments. There is the big dog on top. But around them are smaller dogs that are all fighting for power themselves. We saw this with Goring and Himmler and the others around Hilter. Each had their own army. Each had their own sources of power. And they were in constant competition to grab more power for themselves and to take it away from others. It made no sense for Germany to have seperate Luftwaffe divisions fighting in Russia. It would have made more sense to put those men and resources into the army. But it made sense to Goring in his personal quest for power to have a Luftwaffe army that was under his own command.
Fascism is a dog-fight-dog, dog-eat-dog fight. It continues for the system, because one dog can never kill all the other dogs. More dogs will always enter the fight. Thus the fight continues, and the fight never ends. This weakens the overall cause, as a bunch of dogs all fighting each other is much less fearsome than a pack of dogs working together. Because of this, fascist causes always lose the war. They may win battles along the way, but they always lose the war. Because that pack of snarling, fighting, fascist dogs can never be as strong as a group who fight together for their common good.
“When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they can seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall. Think of it–always.”
― Mahatma Gandhi
It was always a con from the EU, which is basically an instrument of the German bankers. This was obvious whenever someone looked at the bigger picture that included Greece and Ukraine.
The EU conned the part of the Ukraine which has a long romance with fascism to believe that if Ukraine left the Russian orbit and joined the EU then it would all be milk and honey and riches for Ukraine.
However, a picture that included Greece at the time said that this was a lie. At the same time as the Maiden armed coup, the EU bankers were cracking down on Greece. Poor Greece couldn’t pay its bills. We saw the attitutes of the EU bankers towards a periphery nation that couldn’t compete with the powerful German economy. We saw an EU that refused to bail out the Greeks, but instead got out their knives to carve out the pound of Greek flesh that the bankers were convinced that they owned, and had the paperwork to prove it.
And yet, Ukraine was supposed to believe that it was all going to be different for them. A weak, basket-case of an economy overloaded with old Soviet industries was somehow going to be the darling child of the EU bankers who would shower the Ukrainians with gifts and gold. Yeah, right. That was going to happen, Just ask any Greek.
Its amazing how some peoples fall for the same lines over and over. The Kurds in the Middle East are constantly shafted by American claims of friendship and alliance which are then always withdrawn whenever convenient to the Americans, And yet the next time around, the Kurds fall for the same line again.
The Ukrainians believed that the German Armies in 1941 were coming to liberate them from Stalin. Then they met the SS men who were interested in loot and in clearing ‘living space’ for the German people. This time, they believed that the German bankers were coming to liberate them from Putin. And its not working out any better for them this time around either.
Victoria Nuland did not pick Poroschenko for the Presdency because she and the Clinton-Cheney party wanted a strong, independent successful leader in Ukraine.
When picking out a new lap dog, one picks the poodle and not the pitbull.
Unless you have hard facts to disprove Ishchenko, I recall that the entire Junta group elected was an arrangement by Nuland and the State Department and the Khazarians in DC. Manicured to look like democracy.
You think Nuland and company spent 23 years and $5 billion to allow a Kiev government to form without their approval and management?
Prove it.
It is my understanding that Nuland and Company selected everyone down to dog catcher in Kiev, IOW the spoils of ‘victory’ were divided up by US DoS fiat, nothing more…and nothing less. Notice it is pretty much the same crowd in power in orcland today as were in power the Saturday after the coup. This in and of itself is a record for post SSSR ‘government’ in orcland.
Auslander
Author
Blue Cloud https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0797XJM91 A pleasant little adventure of a young collie, told in her words.
Never The Last One https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A Deep Look In To Russia, Her Culture And Her Armed Forces
Larch, you are correct. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool, or naive in the least. Refer to the intercepted phone calls released by Russia four years ago. I wonder, do these paid trolls really think that we are stupid?
Yes, they think we are stupud as they sit on this blog and flood us with bovine scatology. To me, they are a giggle. Regardless of their breathless pontifications, most of us on this blog know better so reality is the trolls are wasting their time on this site.
Auslander
Author
Never The Last One https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
Sevastopol, The Third Defense. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B079KRPLS4 Book 1, A Premonition. Set against a backdrop of real events and real places, the reader is left to filter fact from fiction.
Poroshenko is just a puppet, but behind him are N.A.T.O and much more.
They are very strong and powerful.
Chances for Ukraine to join Russia, peacefully are slim or none.
Now they harass the people of Donetsk and Lughansk, to show up, who is the strongest wolf in the pack.
If Russia could, they should take Novorossiya since 2014.
The history is repeating itself and this happens in the past and would happen again in the future.
The Strongest one dominates the Weakest one.
When Poland will give back Eastern Prussia to Germany?
The parts of what are now western Poland were German for hundreds of years! The cities of Danzig, Steetin, Konigsberg, etc. were never Polish until the end of WWII. Basically, tens of millions of people were forced to leave their homes, and had to move to the West Germany. Now, more than 58 years later, isn’t it time to remove this injustice?
I have a German-American friend, his parents were refugees from Danzig, and they still have the deed to their farm outside the city. Is there any chance that Poland will give up its claim to these areas?
Why won’t Russia give Königsberg (Kaliningrad) back to Germany?
East Prussia was not annexed by international treaties, it was annexed by Soviet tanks. The fact that the parties involved were forced to sign a piece of paper after the fact doesn’t make it less an act of raw force. It’s the kind of thing you can get away with when you have the largest army on the planet. The fact that you’re doing it to people who should feel grateful you hadn’t just shot them all also helps.
When the opportunity of a reunion appeared in the sky, the Polish were quite anxious that Germany would try to get the lost territory back from Poland, and the 4 Allies made clear that Germany would have to accept the Oder-Neisse-Line as its final border to Poland. This was not 100% easy for Germany, because the so called “Ostvertriebenen” (Eastern dispossessed) still have quite a loud public voice. Some 13 million Germans were forced to leave their homeland after WW II. But the chance to get East Germany back (Well, the truth is that it is Middle Germany, while East Germany today is Poland) weighted far, far heavier than the wishes of some displaced persons. So Germany agreed upon accepting the Oder-Neisse-Line as its Eastern border to Poland. Period.
Will Ukraine join Russia?
Sure, as soon as Belarus gives back East Poland and Ukraine gives Ruthenia back to Slovakia, and. Poland gives back East Prussia to Germany, and Romania gives back Transylvania to Hungary.. well, you see how practical it would be.
Problem is that germany is not an independant nation any longer which means that if Russia as goodwill would give back Kaliningrad next day would be Nato armies and weapons aiming even closer to russia. No way to let this to happen!
One big issue in the whole reunion negotiations was the Oder-Neisse-line, which formed the border between East Germany (GDR) and Poland from 1945 until 1989.
When Germany was asking all their neighbors for their consent for the Germen reunion, Poland demanded a conformation that the united Germany would respect the Oder-Neisse line as their eastern border.
The Polish did not ask without a clue. While East Germany had accepted the Oder-Neisse line (probably under Soviet pressure), Western Germany had not. In 1970 West Germany and Poland signed the Warsaw Treaty, which should improve the relations between the two states. West Germany accepted this border as factual Western border – under the condition that a final agreement on that topic would require a peace treaty between Germany and the Allies and the final settlement of all issues concerning the dividing of Germany. This basically meant that as long Germany was divided, the Western border of Poland was accepted.
Kaliningrad lies East of this border. It has once been as German as the rest of East Prussia, which is now Poland. So it was clueless to want this little piece of East Prussia back from the Russians and to leave the rest of East Prussia to Poland – and to have a second border with them. I never heard of any serious plans to reclaim Kaliningrad.
This part of history is over.
Anonymous 12:02
“Now they harass the people of Donetsk and Lughansk, to show up, who is the strongest wolf in the pack.
If Russia could, they should take Novorossiya since 2014.”
Since when is killing 4,000 civilians a year and maiming twice that number ‘harassing’?
Since you apparently don’t know, in Syria a few weeks ago, back when US/NATO were going to bomb Syria flat, Russia looked them in the eye and told them one Russian serviceman with one scratch and all the missile launch platforms, sea and air, would be destroyed. We were on the very brink of war, I’m not joking. And US/NATO blinked and asked permission to hit three useless targets, empty targets, to save their face. Russia told them which ones, and 75% of the missiles were shot down by Syrian air defense in the following NATO debacle.
US/NATO are no longer ‘strong’, they are a failing power, albeit a very dangerous failing power in that they have nukes, but even the nukes are being, and mostly are, negated now. Kinzhal is deployed and operational, and rumor has it that Avangard is also operational. What else of the weapons mentioned by VVP in early March are deployed? President Putin has no track record of bluffing, and from his past statements and deeds, I would bet that each weapon he mentioned is not in development, it is deployed or in process of deployment.
Auslander
Interesting your revisionist thoughts and rather simplistic, you didn’t took in consideration that meanwhile have past 78 years since world war two ended. In this time-frame the different populations have changed in numbers and nationality, it’s impossible to make such a dramatic frontier revision without grave consequences.
“Full-scale wars don’t start because two motorboats opened fired at each other”
—————–
As a child, I remember attending memorial services for older children who lived up the street before they got drafted to die fighting a war that began with a US destroyer firing at imaginary motorboats at a place called the Gulf of Tonkin.
fear mongering. that was then, this is now…
trump will accept the surrender demands
and he better make sure to implement them fully.
Nothing the murderous idiots in kiev, even with US support, can do to the Donbass people by way of defeating them militarily, and even any other way. They’ve had their best chances, and simply were not up to it. Furthermore, the ukrainian military has gone downhill through disillusionment, alchohol and drugs, and simply incompetence, stupidity and criminality, while the Donbass Defenders have grown in professionalism and remain committed and steadfast, knowing that they are in the right – the moral high ground which is a good basis for a defensive force.
Many of the ukie military recruits are in it for the money; should kiev stupidily decide to engage in a major attack to take Gorlovka, etc., about 70% on the contact line would be mashed by the Donbass Defenders by arty & Grads (now that the World Cup is over), others would simply run away if they were somehow unable to go AWOL before that. Morale is also mostly absent, they are treated like sh!t by the top officers & kiev, even given outdated, crap food, have lousy living conditions, and are hated in the kiev occupied Donbass, robbing, raping, stealing & evicting and destroying the locals’ homes, they know the fate they can expect on retreating…
Also, it can be said that the hatred between the nationalists and the regular army is more so than directed at the independent Donbass people. They fight and kill each other; kiev’s top trash commander neyev was tasked with getting the former away from the combat zone.
Besides the DPR, for instance, knowing about the (leaked, among other things…) plans of kiev’s military, and Russia’s surveillance of the contact zone, the enemy units are not fully manned, fuel etc for fighting is sold off, Western armies would never countenance an attack based on so many failings in the attacking farce.
So, although the cowardly attacks against the Donbass civilians will continue, it looks relatively good for the independent republics. Howver, nothing can be discounted given the evilness and stupidity of poroshitko etc, yet any major attack is more than likely to fail dramatically, if it even gets as far as somehow making serious inroads into the Donbass Defenders defences.
To me, it looks grim in Ukraine. I’m especially concerned about the US and NATO training exercises in that country. The role of the Poles is especially alarming.
I don’t believe that the Atlantic Alliance (led from the teeth by Poland and US foreign policy war hawks) will ever succeed to building up a viable, formidable Ukrainian army. Ukraine is simply too asunder ethnically, linguistically, and demographically for that to happen. The biggest danger of all, I think, is that the hawks in Washington and Warsaw will pull a sneaky move, and declare Ukraine to be a Special US Military Ally. That’s like being yanked into NATO through the back door.
I’m worried. What I see happened in Ukraine’s relations with the West right now, looks like an analogue of how US establishment power brokers and US media related to South Vietnam in the late 1950s and early 1960s, as they were preparing that nation (a fake one) to be a US base in the upcoming Vietnam War against communism. Same lies, same string pulling.
GW
Marc A. Thiessen of the Washington Post published an article on June 20th, titled “Trump can shut down his Russia critics with one bold move.” Thiessen is calling for America to transfer its NATO presence in Germany to Polish soil. He wrote He wrote: “Moving U.S. troops to Poland would be a bold, historic decision on par with Trump’s decision to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-can-shut-down-his-russia-critics-with-one-bold-move/2018/07/19/9a6d3898-8b75-11e8-a345-a1bf7847b375_story.html?utm_term=.774c31abf131
This is GW’s reply:
How would the Russians look upon this “bold, historic decision?” Are there any precedents in Russian history? There sure are.
In 1812, Europe’s most power nation, Napoleonic France, conducted its Russian policy by using Poland — then called the Grand Duchy of Warsaw — as a base and a proxy.
When Napoleon had decided that he wanted to eliminate Russia’s independence in foreign affairs, he had his Polish proxies issue an invitation for France to station many hundreds of thousands of troops on Polish soil. That military build-up, in 1811, led to the biggest military operation in world history up to that time. That’s because Napoleon and his allies, some 650,000 strong, including their powerful and motivated Polish contingent of 80,000 troops, invaded Russia the following year.
The Russians, with an army only half as big as Napoleon’s, were supposed be beaten in a short, but brutal campaign by Europe’s technological and military prowess. Instead, the Russians played a long game, fighting hard to survive, and falling back deep into their country.
Within six months, Napoleon’s army was completely destroyed by a combination of elements: Napoleon’s fool hardy decisions, difficulty in terrain and logistics, by the Russian military’s indomitable powers of endurance, and by Russia’s extraordinary heavy firepower. The leadership of the Russian tsar and the canny Russian general Kutusov also had a role in achieving the impossible: the complete destruction of Napoleonic power, the conquest of Poland, and the extension of the Russian “boogeyman’s” influence over all of Europe after 1812.
The West shouldn’t go down this road again because Poland.
The Western sponsored coup d’etat against Yanukovich was the worst thing that could possibly have happened to the people of Ukraine and the best possible thing that could have happened to Russia. The coup d’etat in the long run is also the best possible thing that could have happened to the people of Ukraine, no matter how contradictory my comment is.
The chief sponsor of the coup d’etat was the US, which traditionally has a tough time understanding the history and culture of foreign countries. In Ukraine they used the same methods of regime change as they did in Central and South America, relying on the financial elite, among others. It’s doubtful if Washington even knew what the name of Ukraine means. The name is derived from the Slavic word “Krayina”, and it means “frontier region”. Ukraine was Russia’s western frontier region. Ukrainians are all descended from Russians, with western Ukraine probably being the exception, as it has mixed blood. When demonstrations began against Yanukovich in Kiev in 2014, the bulk of demonstrators were people from western Ukraine, who were brought in.
The US and NATO needed Ukraine, so that they could grab the Russian naval base at Sevastopol and also to install nuclear missile systems close to the Russian border. Both the US and EU needed Ukraine as a dumping ground for their exports and also to provide Western corporations with rich arable soil for the planting of GMO crops. The military plans failed, while the economic ones succeeded, but at an unfortunate price.
The moment oligarchs, backed by Western corporations, made their mark in Ukraine, things started going down hill. The country was reduced to a feudal state, the oligarchs and corporations assuming the role of robber barons, while the population was reduced to the level of serfs. And the result ? By December of 2017, 4 million Ukrainians fled to the West and 4.4 million to Russia. Now 100.000 are emigrating every month. Analysts have stated that in ten years time Ukraine will cease to function as a state. I personally believe it will cease to function sooner than that, as the oligarchs came to the absurd conclusion that the EU and US will over Ukraines expenses through loans, which need not be payed back (thats how they think). The EU has already stated it has no more money to give.
And Poroshenko ? He forgot Kissingers famous statement that “being a friend of the US is dangerous while being an enemy is lethal”. He must be getting a nasty feeling that he will be abandoned, as he will. As a last resort he might try the old trick of taking the country to war to settle internal problems, but that would be suicidal for him. The only thing which surprised me this year was the fact that there was no Ukrainian attack against the Donbass, I was expecting it either during the Presidential elections in Russia, or during the World Cup. Then I started reading about mass desertions from the Ukrainian Army, with a Ukrainian conscript openly stating in a video that if Poroshenko attacked the Donbass, he will have nobody to fight with, as all would have deserted. Even NATO must have come to the same conclusion, which is the reason it did not force Poroshenko to attack. However, desperate men do desperate things.
What will happen next ? Since the social, economic and financial situation is deteriorating in Ukraine, I am now expecting to see Ukrainian politicians fleeing to Russia and setting up political organizations for the reunification of Ukraine wilt Russia (at least the bulk of it, as western Ukraine will be problematic). I don’t expect anything to come out of due democratic process, as the neo-Nazi elements in the country will prevent this. Since a volatile political situation is being created, backed by an economic and financial one which already exists, then I have to side with analysts who predict the break up of Ukraine into three parts. This, of course, will not happen overnight, as such a development is a process. The clear winner will be Putin. I wonder how many times he must have laughed after that coup d’etat in 2014, when NATO grabbed Kiev. Putin reunited Crimea with Russia and set the Donbass for reunification. Central Ukraine is next. I don’t think Putin is too interested in western Ukraine, which will become an object of contention between Poland and Hungary.
And Poroshenko ? Since he has US citizenship (remarkable for a “sovereign” Ukraine), he will flee to the US. His pal Yats is already in Canada, where he wisely moved, and where the Canadian Government bestowed upon him Canadian citizenship in record time.
“The US and NATO needed Ukraine, so that they could grab the Russian naval base at Sevastopol and also to install nuclear missile systems close to the Russian border.”
I agree. And the reality is that the West was defeated in that part of the strategic war. It didn’t anticipate Putin’s toughness and audacity. That’s why Ukraine lost Crimea quickly, and why Donbass was all but lost afterwards. This part of war ended with the Russians winning decisive military victories in Donbass.Ukraine had to settle for Minsk II, and NATO and EU expansion was stonewalled.
The West attempted to compensate for its initial defeat by beginning a sanctions war against Russia. In this respect, the West has been partially successful, even though Russia is surviving the economic damage. The sanctions attack enabled the West to get Putin to withhold his stronger hand in Ukraine, and take a long-term, cat-and-mouse approach.That may be why Putin hasn’t decided to split Ukraine out right. But still, the West’s sanctions offensive has been rebuffed because Russia, after almost five years of sanctions, is still economically healthy and stable.NATO expansion in this round of the conflict has continued to be stonewalled by Russia.
Now, the West is stepping up its offensive by conducting NATO war games in Ukraine. This has been coupled with threatening talk about turning Ukraine into a US Special Military Ally. I don’t know where things go from here. It means that the West is launching its third and potentially most threatening attack on Russia. Kind of like Nazi Germany’s position on the Eastern Front in 1942-43.
The West won’t quit just yet.
GW
I partially agree with you. Putin is playing the waiting game. He did not want the bulk of Ukraine overnight, as he wisely wanted the population itself to demand reunification with Russia. Ukraines sovereign status is in fact an educational course for the population, for it to learn that being sovereign is not such a good thing, bearing in mind that the original Russia was centered in Kiev.
As for sanctions, hey are the best possible thing which could have happened to Russia, which concentrated on it’s infrastructure. Even Russian oligarchs backed Putin, to the astonishment of the West, which did not expect it. Russian industry is being beefed up, while in the past two years Russian agriculture produced two record harvests. Now even Boers from South Africa are thinking of coming to Russia and taking up agriculture.
“… bearing in mind that the original Russia was centered in Kiev.”
True, but with heavy emphasis upon Vladimir-Suzdal-Rostov and Novgorod to the north.
It was a given that Poro and his henchmen were going to go under when they sold their souls – and their people – to the US.