Dear friends,
I am getting a lot of comments and emails asking me to clarify the situation with the joint Russia-ICRC convoy for Novorussia. The reason I am not posting anything about this is that all the information I see about this is completely contradictory. The situation is so confused as to make even an educated guess impossible. All I can say that that the convoy apparently left form the city of Naro-Fominsk, that it has been organized by the Russian Ministry for Emergencies (one of the most effective branch of government in Russia) and that if this convey ever crosses the border the stakes will be huge so rather than to speculate I prefer to keep quiet and frankly admit that I simply have no idea at this point in time where all this is headed. It could quite literally be anything.
My apologies and kind regards,
The Saker
It seems to me that the Eastern Ukranian rebellion did not and does not have popular support.
Russia should have simply said that it will accept all refugees from Ukraine. Entire industries could have been moved from Ukraine to Russia. The biggest asset is the skilled workers, right? It could have been obtained simply offering asylum.
The fear of NATO, perhaps, was the factor in deciding to support, at least politically, the rebellion. The cost to NATO in occupying Ukraine and arming them would have been immense and they would never have been a reliable NATO ally.
Continued economic attack on the dollar would have been sufficient to prevent future US aggression.
When Putin said he would protect all russian-speakers he essentially allowed a minority of the population to stage a military takeover, thinking that Russia has their back. But Russia did not have their back and now they are losing. This creates a problem for Putin that would not have existed if there were no rebellion. He would simply have been the guy that secured Crimea.
After Crimea, Putin should simply have said that he will keep monitoring the situation and does not have further plans to interfere in Ukraine. He should not have pledged to protect Russian speakers everywhere. Such a pledge almost invites foreign powers to test him and it filled rebellious elements with a false sense of power.
At the same time the press keeps saying Putin is playing chess VS Obama checkers, but actually he got outsmarted by the US here.
Saker keeps pointing out that Russia does not want a war in Ukraine. I agree with this. That is why it is a mystery to me why Putin made that pledge. Why did he not call for the rebellion to stop immediately when it started?
To me the possible explanations are:
1. Putin was convinced already back them that the US would keep escalating to the point of war and wanted to secure the Donbass industrial capacity. (Should have simply invaded full force then – perhaps he is trying to use the issue to try and split US and EU)
2. Putin is the one provoking war with the US. (Not sure what possible motive he could have)
3. He spoke without thinking about that exact sentence and made a mistake. (He could have sent a message easily to the rebels to say they are on their own at the start of the rebellion)
4. He wanted to destabilize Ukraine to create economic costs for Ukraine and US, reduce the chance of NATO membership for Ukraine.
Thoughts?
Japan said on Wednesday that it would “strongly protest” to Russia over military exercises that began on the Southern Kuril Islands, Reuters said. “We have already expressed these thoughts to Russia,” a Foreign Ministry official said. The maneuvers involve more than 1,000 troops, five Mi-8AMTSh attack helicopters and 100 other pieces of military hardware, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Moscow and Tokyo have not signed a formal peace treaty since WWII, when the Soviet Union incorporated the islands, called the Northern Territories in Japan.
Last year Russia mumbled about returning 3 of the 4 islands back to japan and this looks like now they have changed their mind. So Japan has no chance in getting even 1 back.. Russia should transfer one of them to China like how Pakistan transfered some parts of territory it captured from india to china. US at the time said it was bilateral and not an international incident.. Wonder how much yelling about territorial integrity powers will be yelling at the UN about.
Dear Saker,
I hope you are well. Un-related to the Ukraine tragedy / terror…There has been a question in my mind about the Gaza offensive for the last month…we have seen the noble stances by various governments, mainly Sth American (Bolivia, Venezuela, Brazil, etc..) in their condemnation of the Zionist terror on Palestinians in Gaza…how do you see what seems to me to be Russian Government’s lack of condemnation? is it simply that Russia is occupied with the same terror being inflicted on the East/Sth Ukraine in the same way as in Gaza and by the same actors? or is there more to why President Putin has not condemned the zionist entity for its terror on Gaza?
thanks,
Tarek
Check this report from Col. Cassad:
http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/52425.html
Maybe a bigger move is being played, finally, under the guise of a humanitarian effort?
FWIW, an unconfirmed report that the US has responded to Russia’s humanitarian aid convoy by delivering humanitarian aid of its own.
The article claims a C-17 flew from Altus AFB, Oklahoma to Kharkiv. It was carrying 155 mm howitzers, ammunition and personnel. The ammunition includes the M982 Excalibur high-precision, long-range munition. It is capable directly hitting targets 40 km away when provided with external guidance via satellite or UAV. The high accuracy would allow precise targeting of militia buildings, but at high cost ($0.5 million estimated per shell).
Sorry for off topic. It’s about Malaysian airplane that was shot down. Here is a link to vesti ru with some info that implicates the ukies conspiring to shoot the plane. It’s in Russian, though.
http://www.vesti.ru/m/doc.html?id=1883431
The character Satan shows up in these (and other) passages in the Gospels.
Mark 1:12-13
Matthew 4:11
Luke 4:8
Mark 3:23
Matthew 12:26
etcetera
One more entry for the Better Late Than Never contest:
The British Telegraph has produced articles about the Nazis in Ukraine. Now a Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant has joined in. The tide is slowly turning.
You were a little too quick with your trigger finger there, Mohamed. You misread me. I was not promoting the “Chosen” myth. I was ridiculing it.
My second sentence that you quoted made that clear.
the convoy is turning to Izvarino… big things ahead…
Mark Sleboda had something to say about the Western view of the subhumans in the Eastern Ukraine, and, of course, his view that it has been a big mistake to not intervene:
https://www.facebook.com/gramsci/posts/10152443345424425
Any of the 4 countries party to the MH17 investigation (Netherlands, Ukraine, Belgium, Australia) can veto the publication of any information they don’t like about the final report.
So for all purposes, the results of the investigation will be classified.
http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/52425.html
AUTOMATIC TRANSLATION
The results of the investigation the death of a Boeing 777 classified.
Ukraine, the Netherlands, Australia and Belgium on August 8 signed an agreement not to disclose information obtained in the course of the investigation.
As part of the 4-party agreement signed on August 8 between Ukraine, the Netherlands, Belgium and Australia, information
the progress and results of the investigation catastrophe Malaysian “Boeing-777” will not be disclosed.
As the correspondent UNIAN correspondent, August 10 at a briefing in Kiev said Speaker prosecutor Yuri Boychenko. according to him
said that during the investigations are ongoing examination and other investigative actions – the results will be announced on
completion of the investigation, and only if, the consensus agreement of all the parties who signed the corresponding agreement.
14056
These deaths flight MH17 in the Donetsk region. will be published in obtaining the consent of all the parties that are involved in
investigation. Any of the signatory countries have the right to veto the publication of results of the investigation without explanation. In the GPU pointed out that at the moment investigations are ongoing, conducted the examination. Only after the conclusion of this agreement the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine ratified the agreement on sending Malaysian personnel to investigate the disaster of the passenger liner “Malaysian Airlines” in the Donetsk region.
International experts admit that to survey the wreck site of the Malaysian Boeing-777 will take a few weeks.
The second phase of the search for the remains of the victims of flight MH17 will be discussed next week.
Thus, we can safely assume – results of the investigation actually classified and final report of the expert or will not be made public never (precedent already exists), or only a few years later, when the political causes of the accident will lose its relevance.
The conclusion is simple – the interim results of the investigation directly prove innocence Russia and / or the DNR to the death of a Malaysian ship and that it does not suit the signatory countries. Of course this does not apply to ordinary citizens or relatives of the victims, and the ruling political elites of these countries.
P.S. The only country which refused (and categorically) to sign the agreement – Malaziyya. But it is in today.
ConflictReporter @MiddleEast_BRK 4 mins
#BREAKINGNEWS The Ukrainian army says, it is ready to attack any unauthorized Russian army convoy that might enter Ukraine.
New Tax Threatens to Destroy Gas Production in Ukraine
Independent gas producers in Ukraine are joining forces to pressure the government in Kiev to re-think its new gas tax before everyone makes a run for the border in search of new assets in a more stable environment.
Private producers have compiled a draft letter to Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, criticizing the government’s doubling of taxes for gas producers, which was justified through the use of “wrong and misleading” data about private companies.
Would this not make gas production in Ukraine more expensive than buying Russian gas? Especially shale gas..
Dear Saker, perhaps you dont want to post this in the comments until we know more, or get confirmation:
КИЕВ, 13 августа. /ИТАР-ТАСС/. Тяжело ранен министр обороны провозглашенной Донецкой Народной Республики (ДНР) Игорь Стрелков. Об этом сообщает агентство “Новороссия”.
“Игорь Стрелков тяжело ранен. Об этом нам сообщил источник в руководстве Новороссии. Состояние министра обороны ДНР – тяжелое”, – отмечается в сообщении.
Подтверждением этой информации из других источников ИТАР-ТАСС не располагает.
Игорь Стрелков был назначен главой Совета безопасности и министром обороны Донецкой республики 15 мая. в июне США внесли его в санкционный список.
Ситуация на Украине. Хроника событий. 13 августа
A couple of videos showing surrendered Ukies returning to Ukraine. The first is about 14 mins, the second about 2 mins edited from the first.
They are seen passing through Rostov airport prior to boarding a Ukraine military An-26. Some show signs of being treated medically, one arrives on a stretcher. Several women are present (relatives or troops?). Most travel openly, a couple of guys have covered their faces under their jacket hoods. Guys with leg injuries have to be helped by Ukraine military troops up the rather steep tail ramp of the Antanov.
@james@wpc: You were a little too quick with your trigger finger there, Mohamed. You misread me. I was not promoting the “Chosen” myth. I was ridiculing it.
Dearest James,
I do realize that you were mocking them. But to most of the 2 Billion Christians it is reality, especially to those Zionist Christians. And, I am talking about them and not you! ~:)
Who would have cared for such a small group of people, who call themselves the “Chosen Ones” unless they have been given this status by 2 Billion people as “True Word of God”.
Another status given to the “Chosen Ones” that they are the protege of the Devil….
We have seen nothing but constant Wars and Persecutions for the last 2014 years.
Enough, leave us the rest of the humanity in peace, especially the Palestinians whose land supposedly belongs to the “Chosen Ones” as mentioned in the “True Word of God”
God said it, so it has to happen with hook and crook.
Sorry, I took the opportunity on your mocking of them.
Best regards,
Mohamed.
Russians still dont take India seriously.. For some strange reason, india is always talked about but not acted upon.
Now indians in general consider USA friendly, does not agree with much of US policy, yet 1% of the US population is indians of high standings. They dont even know off russians since maybe 10,000 indians in the entire RF and 3000 or so in Ukraine. Compared to well more than the native populations of UAE, Qatar, Kuwait etc..
So how can Russians expect Indians to behave towards them when Russians are just Cold towards them? They have similar political stance so they are allies but nothing else. Its kind of like platonic friendships with a hands off approach.
I think Russians should learn more about India to gain a better understanding. A country thats like less than a 1/4 of the RF, with over a billion people, over 17 official languages and hundreds of unofficial languages and every single religious and cultural minority from the entire world. You cant even call someone indian other than in a general sense of where they came from. Since are you talking about the war like cholas from the south who have never been conquered in history to the pacifist Buddhists from the Tibetan northern areas. Heck there are even descendants of Alexander the great, followers of jesus and mix of every other cultural and ethnic variants.
It IS a HUGE task to learn about Indians it is not a cohesive society like China or assimilated society like the US/UK.. Its pretty much like learning about every other religion, race and culture. Its actually far stronger strategic partner to the RF than any other country in the world.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/SOU-01-130814.html
The convoy will be attacked, it won’t be attacked, it will run out of gas, it will be stalled by Intl Red Cross, it will be looted, it will sit parked for months.
Putin will make a speech, he will make phone calls, the Foreign Ministry will complain, the UN ambassador will complain.
Another thousand people will die. (The rate of death is increasing, even the feeble UN say it doubled in one week).
Then another thousand will die.
But all this is according to some plan, hatched in the mind of someone.
It is Strelkov’s brilliant military mind. It’s Putin’s clever geo-political scheme.
Facts are irrelevant when myths are floated as reality.
All I see is a rampage by evil thugs who target innocent civilians.
The so-called militia is a marvelous guerrilla-style force that can’t hold strategic terrain, but can seriously damage an entrenched and timid army.
The war in Donbass will accomplish Kiev’s goal. It will ethnically cleanse the region of Russians.
And it will entice the junta to walk into Crimea. Or try to. Or threaten to.
But by then, the army of Kiev will have the equipment of NATO, long range missiles, a vast air force, even newly-flagged ships to attack from sea.
And Russia will have the war it does not want.
Kiev is expendable. No one values it. The Hegemon is using it.
Kiev is the ultimate “cannon fodder” of the Elites.
When Russia obliterates it, various weak points of Russian territory will fall into NATO’s grasp.
The goal of the West is to diminish Putin, diminish Russia.
No one ever got to Peace by supplication.
No country ever achieved strength by acting weakly.
No strategy of concession leads to triumph.
Stasis is random in nature, non-existent in human affairs. It is impossible in geo-politics.
Russia must act with strength, if not force. The first economic sanction moves is good.
It must follow on with real military adjustments to avoid a conclusion dictated by others.
the Pug’s comments 13 August, 2014 15:47
have been denied by RT. Strelkov is alive and well.
http://russian.rt.com/article/45231
Beside the announced offensive and the possible wounding of Strelkov the militias face a fifth column problem (from cassad.net), courtesy of Akhmetov.
All this doesn’t look too good and the “concealed strategy” must be really, really clever to compensate.
Larchmonter445,
Putin is responsible for Russia, and has been waging war on the Empire quite successfully thus far by a plethora of non-military means. What is going on in Ukraine is entirely the Empire’s doing, just like what is going on in Gaza, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and every other current hot spot. No different, and pretty much the same M.O. Those people matter, too, every bit as much.
But the point is, again, that Putin is responsible for Russia, and the welfare of every single person living there *should be* of vastly more importance to him than the people of the Donbass who by and large have not lifted a finger to fight their own battles.
It’s Godawful to sit here watching this all take place — but you also have to realize that there is so very much going on behind the scenes to which we will never have access, that it’s really pointless to second-guess or predict anything, much less lead with your feelings about what Putin should or should not do. After all, if you’re going with “should”s, the big one is we should stop messing in *anyone* else’s business!!! And the obligate corollary: We The People should get off our collective arses and work together to make that happen! (Instead, we urge on Putin in the hope that *he’ll* stop *us* — what’s wrong with that picture?)
I´m getting very worried about the situation. The Monument destroyed, Donetsk and Lugansk surrounded, and even rumors Strelkov is severely wounded.
The political moves around the convoy are understandable, could be even beneficial for gaining western support.
I tried to sort it out for myself, and remembered the advice from mr Putin to DPR and LPR to hold back and slow down..
They might have created a huge problem by ignoring the advice.
(and in this sense the people of the other Novorossian oblasts might not have been lazy cowards, but smart people who bide their time.)
But I find myself debating on Dutch forums-the article and half of the reactions painting mr Putin as a psychopathic agressor- my reactions are starting to paint him as ´very cautious´, too weak. This is in the heat of the debate, not planned at all.
Nowadays, most supporters of the empire think Putin has blinked and is afraid of the west. So they believe in more sanctions.
That is one thing. Is Novorossia going to hold up? I was assuming Donetsk and Lugansk are a ´red line´.
My problem is that Russia is going to be sanctioned to the max anyway. Even though the very cautious approach: who gives a shit and wants to study the truth?
When you find the time, I´m hoping for a longread. Regards.
I just cannot believe this!
I don’t have the time to read all day every day the comments on blog what with the day to day work of maintaining the household, a herd of children, changing every piece of foolscap we have to Russian Federation from Orkland, writing and such. However, today I have some time and what I’m reading is leaving me a little agape.
Let’s get something straight. None of us have a clue as to what VVP is doing or going to do. We can conjecture, we can wish, we can pontificate, we can worry and bite nails, but we don’t know. That being said, I have no doubt in my mind that VVP will not allow Novorossiya to fall. Understand that. Novorossiya will NOT fall. The price will be extremely high and the price already shows exactly what The West thinks of us. As Juan said some time ago, we are untermenschen, subhumans. So be it. The West doesn’t care how many old men and women, mothers and fathers, children and babes in arms perish in the relentless bombardments of the orks, it doesn’t matter to them….at the moment. In the end it will matter. Remember, up through the late ’60’s certain disreputable people were showing up dead from their deeds during the War. You think Mother has forgotten how to do that? Guess again. Sleep well, my darlings.
There is a lot of trepidation and rumor about a supposed attack on Krimea. I live in Krimea, lived here for years. I have a wife and family here, a home I’ve built with my hands, a life we’ve worked very hard to make pleasant. Few if any of you have been here and fewer still understand us. The best way to put it is during the build up to our referendum to decide whether we wanted to return to Mother or if we wanted to remain part of Orkland only with federalization (sound familiar?), a pretty high lad from Mockba made the comment on live TV, to wit: “My God, these people are more Russian than we are!” That is it in a nutshell, we are more Russian than the rest of Russia.
Know this. If Krim and Sevastopol are attacked, we will fight. ALL of us will fight, Tatari included. Tatari live amongst us, we are friends and do business together and we intermarry. We will ALL fight. The difference between Krim/Sevastopol and Novorossiya is we are Russian, not ethnic Russian but RUSSIAN. When we were threatened in late February from Kiev we immediately barricaded the roads coming in to Krim and all 5 roads coming in to Sevastopol. After our Berkut declared for us they opened their armories to us and we were armed. When many bus loads of right sector arrived at the Krim border they took one look at us and Berkut armed to the teeth and looking at them completely emotionless, soiled their armor and ran back to Kiev as fast as they could with their tales between their legs.
Krim and Sevastopol have a total population of just under 3.5 million. In less than a week we had 15,000 men and women in our local defense units. In two weeks we had 30,000, in three weeks 50,000. Any attack against the Autonomous Republic of Krimea and the Federal City of Sevastopol will be a disaster for the attacker. Look at a topographic map of Krimea. The north 70% is a vast steppe, a flat steppe, a perfect killing ground for any orks who attack from the north, they will have no place to hide. To get in to Krim you have to cross a waterway and/or deep marsh lands from west to east. If the orks manage to get through the steppes, which is highly doubtful, then they will come up against the majority of the populace in the foothills and mountains of the south. The populace will fight, all of us. My wife and I will be on the barricades of this city and we will defend it to the bitter end if needs be. This city and this Republic is OUR home, OUR land, OUR culture. Attack at your own risk, Nato. It will break my heart to have to fight you, my old comrades, but fight you I will. Know that, understand that. You will not win, you will die in Krimu.
Nora,
Never did use “should”. Said: ‘must’.
As for We the People . . .
The delusion of democratically, peacefully, cleverly regaining control of the federal government is not a uniform of mentality or emotion I would wear. I don’t have any hope for that internal political event or process.
D.C. is an Elite tyranny. There are no paths within the law to take over from the feudal lords. They have the courts, the weapons, the manpower, and everyone’s address.
Repairing the election system is like repairing melting snow.
How about a third party? Check the history of that adventure into the wilderness.
Over the course of the last half century many good people with good hearts and clear minds have yet to recognize the fact encapsulated in Dallas 11-22-63. There was a bloody coup.
Begin there. Coup d’etat. And many, many more murders in D.C. and around the nation over the decades to maintain the Elite control over the government, the economic levers, financial controls, massing of venture capital in the hands of a few, restriction of credit, destruction of wages and jobs, collapse of real estate equity for middle class homes, and the ruination of education by curriculum and costs.
Now you have your We the People campaign.
Let’s hear your program for taking D.C. from the Elite.
Fact of the matter is that America is gone. California, the engine, is gone. The moral basis of America is gone. The ethical basis of Rule of Law is gone. And religion is marginalized.
Hell, Male and Female, Family and Childhood are going.
The Cult of Liberalism has taken down all the institutions that made We the People an ideal and a partial reality.
The Cultural Revolution v. 2.0 has hold of America.
China decapitated symbolically the Maoist cult, imprisoned the Gang of Four and cleansed the Party of the Red Guard.
Tell me how you plan to clean out the Elites running the government.
Auslander, thank you again for your words and deeds.
I trust Putin will defend Crimea as he would St. Petersburg. I have no doubt that he is loading the area with state of the art weapons systems.
My thoughts about what awaits downstream from the East’s travails is the damage that may be done to knock Russia off its intended track of development.
Clearly, now, Crimea costs Russia some on its budget, but later, Crimea will be an engine for economic success. The potential is enormous.
We all pray that Russia can toss Kiev into the scrapheap of Nazi disasters.
Finally; to quote you: “Remember, up through the late ’60’s certain disreputable people were showing up dead from their deeds during the War. You think Mother has forgotten how to do that? Guess again. Sleep well, my darlings.”
Sounds like sweet music to me.
Quick update from Canuckistan:
Ukrainian Ambassador was just on the CBC’s Power and Politics and it really seems as if the aid that is being delivered by the RF has gotten the Kiev Junta into an awkward pickle. Seems like it has altered it’s coarse though and may cross into the self-defense forces controlled region instead. More later as time permits…
Auslander,
Beautifully done, my friend! Hа здоровье!
Larchmonter445,
“Tell me how you plan to clean out the Elites running the government.”
I don’t know, dear, but blaming your having been asleep at the switch on The Cult Of Liberalism is silly, counterfactual and sure won’t get the job done. Neither will urging Putin on to shoot ’em all up like a teevee Western.
And neither will sitting back, talking tough, complaining up a storm and doing nothing.
If you have any thoughts on how we can regain some semblance of a truly representative polity — or even what you think it should end up looking like if ever we get so lucky — now that would be helpful. This other stuff? Who needs it?
@Auslander,
Thank you for your comment as it is precisely the argument many of us have been attempting to highlight since the snipers arrived at the Maidan to unleash havock, death and mayhem in order to turn the tide in favour of the coup plotters.
We knew that the Berkut had fled towards Crimea and that they took their armories with them and not necessarily secret RF forces to suppress the populous.
We understood that the Right Sector was following behind with their “busloads” of foreign mercenaries, they boasted and posted this via the interwebz and proclaimed they would be victorious.
When the Right Sector attempted to sway public opinion that the Tatars were in perilous danger, we knew they would indeed stand behind their homeland and with their freinds, relatives and neighbours and not on the side of the Right Sector nor Kiev. This was evident when Dmitry Yarosh could not get the support of the militants in Chechnya to support, mobilize and engage the “cause” he was assigned to lead.
While our words may have had little impact initially over the roar of the massive disinfo and propaganda campaign, your words give us solace. Not only that but our words were published, disseminated, distributed and heard by enough folks that they have no hope of offering a plausible deniability defense. Sooner or later, they will have to answer to someone.
Peace and luv to you and your family as well as those within your community and region. We may only be keyboard warriors in this battle, but we will fight for you with all the tools at our disposal and then some.
This one is from all of us, from one of the best musical trios of all time from our homeland to yours. If Push comes to shove, Godspeed friend…
Triumph – Fight the GOOD Fight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlJA-cN2C_0
Anonymous @ 13 August, 2014 09:54
1/ I cannot agree with your contention that the rebels were merely an armed minority and have stayed that way. It is true when this revolt began their numbers were tiny, and they had only a few Kalashnikovs and even some WWII vintage submachine guns. The Ukie nationalists were not lying when they jeered in April that the Maidan enjoyed 100s of thousands of supporters in comparison. Of course what the Ukies from the West always omit from that part of the story is that their nationalists also took over government buildings, their people attacked police men (something the Donbas separatists did not do at least at the beginning until Kiev gave cops orders to shoot them), and they had no problem with violent insurrection for THEIR SIDE declaring independence from Kiev, even if there was no question of Lviv joining Poland.
They also omit that protesting had become a way of life in Lviv, Kiev and many other parts of Ukraine since the Orange Revolution and there had always been money for this, serious money in the case of the Maidan since somebody had to pay for the toilets and the catering if nothing else as the sarcastic Russian video Saker posted months ago pointed out. It was recently confirmed by Christopher Booker writing in the Daily Telegraph that the Maidan movement was paid through German banks, and likely German NGOs. We know for example that Klitschko was a protege of the Christian Democrats’ foreign NGO foundation for years, which is a reason Victoria Nuland in the infamous ‘f the EU’ tape. So you cannot compare the massive and planned for years propaganda push to fully envelope Ukraine into the Atlantic NATO/EU Empire and Russia’s belated and somewhat half-hearted efforts until it took Crimea and the real civil war began in earnest. We all can agree here other than providing Ukraine with half of its foreign trade and cheap gas under Yanukovich Russia did very little to nothing to counter the growing storm of Ukrainian ultranationalism and Russophobia. Except for perhaps some contacts with the Donbas/Novorossiya federalization (at that time it was not a separatist) movement via summer camps in Rostov for young activists like Gubarev, these efforts were almost non-existent before Putin recognized the threat after Yanukovich’s violent overthrow. Daniel Sandford can whine all he likes about how the Novorossiya movement was allegedly already being prepared by the Russian security services and the NAF are simply Russian stooges. The reality is it was the West that spent $5 BILLION dollars from Nuland’s own mouth on bringing Ukraine into its orbit since 1991. How much has Russia spent in that same time to build up proxies or allies in Ukraine? I’m guessing only a fraction of that. Corrupt deals via Putin’s pal Medvechuk, Tymoshenko and Yanukovich not only did not help Russia, they made the situation worse by pushing many Ukrainians who detest corruption but are not anti-Russian into the arms of the Galician Nazis and their fronts like the Fatherland Party or Svoboda.
2 / reply to Anonymous who says Putin is selling out Novorossiya — read Auslander’s reply. He is much closer to the action so to speak with his ear to the ground and sources that have proven reliable coming out of the Donbas with eyewitness accounts than almost all of us, save for the Saker and Juan.
If Auslander says Putin will not abandon Novorossiya than that’s good enough for me. But even if I didn’t take Auslander at his word, the Ukies are gaining ground but paying for it with more blood than ever. The resistance is retreating at times but isn’t taking huge casualties nor folding. Ground that the Ukies confidently claim to have taken such as Krasny Luch or Pervomaiysk turns out to still be in NAF hands after the Kyiv Post puts out Avakov and Tymchuk’s bogus pronouncements about glorious Banderastan victories. The ‘noose’ is said to be tightening around Donetsk every day but the Ukie forces are increasingly concentrated in a smaller area negating their advantages in manpower and firepower, levelling the playing field so skillful and determined defenders can kill them with snipers, machine guns, claymore mines, RPGs and ATGMs whereas before the Ukies could hide behind their artillery and armor advantage.
I’m not saying Donetsk can hold out forever, it certainly cannot. But if it’s not going to be the Ukies equivalent of Stalingrad it will certainly be their Grozny in 1994, and the pretense of only 500 casualties will gradually be replaced with the grim undeniable reality of truckloads of body bags coming home from the front to Nykolaev, Kherson, Zaporozhe, Dnepropetrovsk and Lviv.
Right now contrary to all of the Ukie propaganda the encirclement of Donetsk is NOT complete. The rebels hold Krasny Luch and are blasting away with GRADs and arty at the Ukrainian units that had threatened Gorlovka. Without Krasny Luch and Gorlovka the encirclement of Donetsk remains piss thin to the southeast, and the forces there could find themselves slaughtered with GRADs and arty sufficiently that they have to pull back and the NAF drives armor and truckloads of resupply right into the city. In fact I believe that with the Ukies and Western MSM fixated on the humanitarian convoy that is precisely what the NAF is preparing thanks to 150 kms of wide open border with Russia perfect for infiltrating GRADs, howitzers, and truckloads of 1 km range ultra-lethal Koronet ATGMs of the latest generation. The NATO hope that it can rely on decapitation drone or long range missile strikes is a fool’s hope, they will never find them all and the NAF will keep blasting drones from the skies with increasing concentrations of road mobile and camoflaged SAMs.
In short, whether or not the NAF has mass support, there is certainly no great enthusiasm for the Ukie ‘liberators’ — their accounts admit this themselves with a former Berkut man turned National Guardsman admitting the locals wave and then flip off the Ukies behind their backs while giving the NAF tips on their camp locations using cellphones. The truth is the majority of the Donbas population was always probably apathetic or ready to side with the winners, but the level of hatred for this Kiev regime on the part of men and women has been growing with every shelled apartment bloc and ruined school or hospital. There is simply no chance as long as Kiev keeps killing and bombing the civilian population at this rate that it can ‘win hearts and minds’ — it can only lose even if the NAF can squander the opportunity to gain support through infighting and allowing sabotage by Ahkmetov agents.
@ 13 August, 2014 19:39
3/3 To complete part 3 of my long rambling reply to Anonymous, who hopefully IS NOT a concern troll but seems sincere…ALL of the evidence I’ve seen from the battles underway since April is that the Ukies attack, they take heavy casualties, and they retreat. The Ukie army mostly advances and conquers ground where the NAF simply doesn’t have the manpower or the ammo to resist very well, in most cases where they grossly outnumber the NAF 10 to 1 in a sector or a piece of front. The front is always shifting, it is never truly stable except in rare instances like the Southern Cauldron partial encirclement, and even there the NAF lacked the manpower to fully eliminate the pocket they could only destroy 50% of it with perhaps 20% of the survivors fleeing to Russia before being repatriated.
Every.single.time. the Ukies run into an NAF force that is moderately well equipped or try to engage them within ATGM range, they get their asses kicked. Every.single.time. in this war. That’s not to say that there aren’t courageous Ukrainian soldiers or that all Ukies are cowards. Quite the opposite. There is a certain drugged out false ‘courage’ like the Right Sector morons won the other day driving into Donetsk suburbs with unarmored vans and getting slaughtered within seconds due to their hubris and stupidity. There are decent Ukie officers like this one who remind me of Wehrmacht officers in 1942-43: an order’s an order and must be obeyed irrespective of sanity or the nature of the regime. There are a handful of Ukie spetsnaz units that are very well trained, and a broader number of a few hundred paratroopers who survived the Southern Cauldron and who may know how to avoid encirclement by now. But that’s it. The hardcore Nazis, the enthusiasts like the Donbas Battalion with my dumbass fellow American who fights for Ukraine, and even the somewhat more saavy but vicious Azov Battalion will all be dead in four months of fighting. They will die in urban meatgrinders, they will die via roadside bombings or sniper/ATGM and mortar attacks on their exposed block posts, they will die even perhaps from civilians giving their locations to polite men in green, should Putin decide to step up the covert intervention. Azov’s HQ on the Sea of Azov of the same name seems to me to be a sitting duck for Naval spetsnaz from Crimea to come in one night and kill them all by blowing up that place with thermite.
The ONLY way Kiev wins this before winter is via meatgrinder warfare, gross NAF incompetency or infighting, and through the kind of deadly accuracy of fire that can only be introduced via NATO troops being too close to the front for their politicians’ comfort. But there is no way in hell Washington, London or NATO will be able to deny their near-direct participation in the fighting for the Donbas nor can they avoid Russia opting to retaliate in kind, perhaps with a few drone or even cruise missile strikes of its own on Nazi HQs and CPs all over the Donbas.
Re Amerikan Kulak
Perhaps it would aid thought if you define winning and losing, trying if possible to avoid categorical imperatives.