This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-sixteen-of-the-russian-intervention-in-syria-a-us-invasion-of-syria-next/
This week was marked by major successes for the Syria military the Sheikh Miskeen region of the Daraa Province in the south of the country. In the meantime in the north, the Syrian Army continues its offensive north of the strategic Kuweires air base. But these military successes were eclipsed by rumors that the US was setting up and air base in northern Syria, possibly near Rmeilan, a town in the al-Hasakah Governorate in the northeast of Syria, and that this might be the preparation for a US ground intervention. Interestingly, the US media also began circulating rumors that the Russian were setting up a 2nd air base in northern Syria. Erdogan even declared that he “would not tolerate” a 2nd Russian air base in Kurdish Syria. And then, of course, there was the statement of Joe Biden who spoke of a US ‘military solution’ in Syria if no negotiated solution could be found. Listen to him claim that the US is capable of “taking out” Daesh:
As for Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, he declared that the 101st Airborne Division would soon be deployed to Iraq to fight Daesh in Mosul and in Syria to fight Daesh in Raqqa (so much for Obama’s sixteen promises not to have US ‘boots’ on the ground!). Predictably, such rumors resulted in some pretty wild headlines such as this one: “America and Turkey begin Ground Invasion of Syria. How Will Russia Respond?” This is a major exaggeration, to put it very mildly. Instead, lets’ look at what might really be brewing.
First, it is rather unlikely that the entire 101st will be deployed in the region. At most we are talking about a few battalions, maybe a ‘combat team’, but hardly enough to constitute an invasion force. Besides, the 101st is a light infantry division which simply is not suited for a land invasion role. In a conventional war, the 101st would support regular ground forces, but not replace them. In a counter-insurgency war, the 101st could do many things, including security, anti-terrorist operations, training of local forces, intelligence gathering, etc. But to imagine that the 101st will drive down from northern Syria to Damascus to overthrow Assad is simply not realistic. As for the airfield the USA supposedly took over in northern Iraq, take a look at a map to see for yourself where it is located: far away in the northeastern corner of the country, close to the Turkish and Iraqi borders, but very, very far from the city of Damascus or from the Russian radars in the Mediterranean or Latakia.
The Americans have announced that they are planning a two pronged offensive, one towards Mosul and another towards Raqqa. Considering that the US already has airbases in Turkey and Iraq, the only thing which this rather primitive airstrip (used for “agricultural purposes” in the past, i.e. crop dusting) would give them is a convenient place to bring specialized personnel in and out of the region, but hardly the hub for a major invasion force. Besides, it is still unclear whether the elements from the 101st will be deployed only in Iraq or also in Syria. At least one US magazine seems to think that rather than a combat force, the Rmeilan air base in Syria will be used by various type of US special forces including combat controllers, pararescue jumpers, special operations weathermen and other JSOC personnel. If so, then we are talking about a small and specialized force, not a ground invasion of any kind.
I think that regardless of the public statements made by Biden and Carter, it is too early to determine what Uncle Sam plans to do in Syria next. The airfield in Rmeilan is most likely just seen by the US as a good place to establish a presence and keep options open. I don’t believe for one second that the US has any intention of invading Syria, but if it did, we would see a much bigger logistical effort and the concentration of several large formations coming from different directions (Turkey and Jordan, possibly Iraq). In that case, Rmeilan could be used for US helicopters but not for fixed wing-aircraft, at least not without a major upgrade of the runway(s) and infrastructure.
What about the bigger question of whether the US has a “military solution” for Syria – is that really a possibility? I don’t think so for a very simple reason: the only force out there which can fight Daesh on the ground is the Syrian military. Even the Iranians and Hezbollah do not, at least right now, have the force levels needed to take on Daesh by themselves. In purely military terms, Turkey or Iran could, I suppose, launch a full scale invasion, but the political costs would be prohibitive. Plus the Turks probably don’t have the stomach for such a bloody war with no clear exit strategy. At most, the Turks want to seize a strip of land in northern Syria and keep the Kurds down. Unlike the Turks, the Iranians could at least be legally invited by the Syrians, but that would hardly assuage the USA, the KSA or the Turks which would be absolutely enraged by such an Iranian move. Having just won a major diplomatic victory over the USA and Israel, Iran probably has no desire at all to create yet another major crisis. Finally, as I said it a gazillion times ‘the Russians are *not* coming’. So that means that the only force capable of taking on Daesh is the Syrian military and I don’t see the US being able to provide anywhere near the kind of force levels to become a credible actor in this war.
The Syrians on the ground, the Russians in the skies, and some special assistance from Iran and Hezbollah – this is the only alliance which can take on Daesh and slowly squeeze them out of most of Syria. The Americans seem to want to use the Kurds in a role similar to the one played by the Syrian military, ‘boot on the ground’, but that completely ignores the fact that the Kurds are not a single force, that they do not have a regular army, that they are not Arabs and that Turkey, a key ally in any US operation, will never allow the Kurds to play a major regional role. It is possible that the Kurds, the Americans and the Iraqis could together retake Mosul, especially against a weakened Daesh. As for them taking Raqqa, I don’t see that happening, but maybe I am wrong here and Daesh is even weaker than I think it is. But that’s it. If that is what Biden calls a “military solution” then it is very much a misnomer. At most, I would personally call it an “American side show”.
The Saker
“So are the things is Syria” by El Territorio del Lince blog.
http://elterritoriodellince.blogspot.com.es/2016/01/asi-estan-las-cosas-en-siria-sigo.html
With Russian maps of the situation.
(….) Things look bad, very bad, for extremely moderates or moderately extremists. On all fronts they are now in disarray. The Geneva talks may give them some oxygen, but I doubt that in a short-term a ceasefire will be reached, as they ask. Unless imposed by both Russia and the US. Without the ceasefire, the clock is ticking for the Syrian government because every day progresses more, consolidates its positions and regains control of new cities.
Russia has started bombing the 2 cites in the north that are held by IS so it is pretty good bet both the SAA and YPG will take those towns once the fortifications are dealt with. Russia seems to be preparing for some kind of Turkish reaction when IS gets cut off from Turkish logistics once those 2 cities are lost. YPG also says they are preparing for a major offensive and the SAA also seems to be preparing to cut off Aleppo. Turkey will react, how is the question.. They stand to lose all their terrorists in one shot from the look of things.
What about like this:
http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-nato-radars-detected-russian-jets-airspace-violation-170521934.html
There is nothing – may be only hot air. No violation of Turkish airspace…
http://sptnkne.ws/a7tu
We will see if next time the great ottoman helpers of ISIS try (!) to shot down a Russian fighter-jet.
May the force be with you.
The above is an excellent explanation on the part of The Saker in relation to the current situation in Syria as well as the bluster coming from Washington and Ankara.
As I said from Day 1 of the Russian Operation in Syria, NATO would desperately need to create some kind of solid foothold within Syria, since their mercenary rats would now be fair game and would inevitably start losing.
Until today, I have not been at all impressed by the efforts of NATO-GCC.
The only thing they managed to do so far is to increase TOW deliveries to their rats in Syria and shoot down one Russian bomber.
Mind you, more warnings from NATO via their local dog Erdogan in recent days.
Edogan has claimed that the RF has “violated” Turkish air space. He has given the military to use force at will. Nato is there to back him instead of getting there swaggering asses back to the EU to guard the border from the illegal immigrants. WWIII is getting closer.
Immediately after the “incident”,Erdogan came out and said he wanted to meet with Putin to “talk” and resolve problems. There are two reasons I can think of for that. And the “incident” was most likely staged to further one of them. 1st,he may want to appear “reasonable” and a man of peace (he has to quickly wash the blood of his hands for that image to stick).Or,2nd,(the most likely) he is getting pounded economically by Russia’s sanctions. And he hopes to play a “Rodney King moment” with Putin if he gets to see him in person,”Can’t we just be friends”. I doubt Putin will meet with him.He probably understands Erdogan’s plan (whichever it is).And doesn’t want to help him with it.
Or maybe Putin phoned him inbetween and threatened him with…hopefully. Even a rabid dog which gets kicked in the balls knows something is radically wrong.
The ongoing operation to secure Syria’s border with Turkey will eventually cause the airstrip to be evacuated. Erdogan may try to intervene more than he has, but that would be a major error on his part. I think much of the talk from the War Party is just chest puffing for domestic consumption. The bombing near Damascus shows the need to cleanse its suburbs of the remaining terrorist cells. The urban combat ops show slow, steady progress, which is required to keep casualties low. Once Latakia and Aleppo are secured, Idlib ought to become an easier nut to crack.
What I await is a joint Syrian/Iraqi military operation to eliminate the terrorists once the borders are secure. I also expect a change in the Iraqi political situation that will eventually result in the Outlaw US Empire’s forces being evicted from the region once and for all. Will Daesh head for Saudi followed by its creators?
” Will Daesh head for Saudi followed by its creators?”
I doubt that very much. Daesh and its ilk go where the Empire sends them. The Empire will not attack its chief regional ally, Saudi Arabia. On their own Daesh cannot do much. They would need to move thousands of fighters, their weapons, ammunition, food, equipment for fortifications etc etc thousands of miles to set up camp in SA. But they do not have ships, aircraft and trains. They cannot convoy over any significant distance unless governments look the other way.
Without the support of the Empire these groups are run of the mill terrorists, without the ability to threaten states and who can be fought by police.
Once they fail/succeed in Syria, I’d say the next in line is Iran,Russia and Europe. Perhaps China. But it seems to me Europe is the easiest.
Daesh has already bombed Shite mosques within Saudi, so they’re already present. Lots has been written recently regarding Saudi instability, particularly by Pepe Escobar, and possibility of its being “rescued” by the Outlaw US Empire, thus my query. I agree that Daesh’s the current terrorist tool being used by the Empire and was deployed to Afghanland for use there. It stands to reason since Russia intervened in Syria to stop Daesh that it will also intervene in Afghanistan too, but playing a different role than in Syria. There’s still the legal battles related to the UNSC Resolutions to process and the fallout that will generate. Perhaps they’ll run to Turkey, too.
Yes, in that sense, they are a danger even to Saudi. Afghanistan is often forgotten, as you say Russia will have to do something in there. And it will be interesting to see what Russia does when they turn on Turkey.
The Americans and Turkish are enraged that their terrorist proxies in Syria are getting a major ass kicking at the hands of Russian-backed Syrian forces.
As such, the Americans and Turks are desperate to manufacture a pretext to save their precious “moderate” head-choppers and jihadists–even by claiming to fight these terrorists, which the United Snakes and Turkey have armed and backed!
Even George Orwell would be amazed at the level of deception and duplicity that America practices.
“political language is designed to make lies sound truthful ” – George Orwell
Dear The Saker,
Thank you for the update.
You are right it is all bluster and bluff Erdogan is off on the “Turksih (now NATO (Pentagon)) airspace” trash talking agian. This is quite a good take on how Turkey can do nothing:
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160131/1033991307/turkey-russia-su24-violation.html
Daesh also bombed a Shia part of Damascus today killing over 45 and injuring over 100
https://www.rt.com/news/330764-damascus-bomb-attack-isis/
All done whilst the Saudi backed “opposition” arrive in Geneva without pre-conditions……They are so weak – all they can do is murder unarmed innocent civilians. The Syrian Govt. has also made it very clear that they won’t negotiate with terrorists……so I think we can all see which side has the upper hand.
I also agree the US is using the agricultural strip for special forces – its funny how Daesh is holding the Dam as a hostage to get what they want – threatening to blow it up. The US is either there to extract their assets or take over the Dam/water using their Kurdish proxies…..we need to keep an eye on this one.;;;;
Rgds,
Veritas
If dam blew up I am sure they will blame it on Assad
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/01/31/448147/Iran-says-SWIFT-open-to-9-banks-Monday–
Jan 31
Iran said on Sunday that nine more banks are set to be re-connected to SWIFT international banking system.
Valiollah Seif, the governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), has been quoted by the media as saying that the banks will be re-connected to SWIFT in the early hours of Monday.
The tense relations were a facade, a face saving measure that allowed Turkish President Erdogan to portray an image of a patriotic defender of Turkish citizens, and a champion of Islam and the Palestinian cause. During the initial uproar of the flotilla incident, Erdogan promised the next flotilla would be escorted by the Turkish navy. Instead Erdogan blocked the Mavi MarMara from heading to Gaza. Far from defending the Palestinian cause, Turkey continued to produce Israel’s Military combat boots which are used in the occupation of the West bank.
Israel and Turkey have a shared agenda in Syria, which has stood in the many business plans between the respective states. Long Gas pipelines can only be built economically in shallow waters hugging coastlines, or future repairs would be difficult. The planned Turkey-Israel pipeline could potentially have to go through Syria’s exclusive economic zone which extends 370 km off the Syrian coastline. Israel illegally occupies Syrian land and has been in a state of cold war with Syria for decades. Both Israel and Turkey would economically benefit from the dismantlement of the Syrian State through the support of terrorist groups operating in the country
http://journal-neo.org/2016/01/28/israel-turkey-and-isis-ally-to-steal-syrian-energy/
found this 2013 11-page great maps showing area with detailed petroleum & geophysical maps:
Regional Geopolitics of Eastern Mediterranean Gas
http://www.ingas.com.tr/media/12589/1121_B%C4%B0LG%C4%B0N_INGAS%202013.pdf
To note is Latakia, Tartus in that small western coastal piece abutting Lebanon to south, & Turkey to north. If Turkey/rebels could have taken it over & anschlussed it, it would allow unimpeded a total shallow water coast pipeline carrying Leviathan/Tamar gas direct to Turkey
http://hashmonean.com/images/sy_map1.jpg
http://www.naturalgasasia.com/content/6815/leviathan%20gas_550x300.jpg
Thanks for posting the links to the maps.
Should, would, could… It is not going to happen, Anon, the train has left the station. 4 months ago…
As I understand it, the Israeli Government would prefer that there be a (de facto, at least) independent Kurdistan, with which Israel can make its own arrangements for oil and gas production and distribution. It will also have the benefit of dividing Iraq into much weaker sectarian state. I believe that Israel wants the same outcome for Syria.
The United States closely coordinates its Mideast/North Africa policies with Israel. I believe that the US military developments in Northeast Syria are a way to preserve the option to have an autonomous pro-American/Israeli Kurdish region, that will include parts of Syria and Iraq.
Yes. Exactly so.
Before the site had this Week 16 report up, I posted this comment on an interesting article link under the Korortchenko-Ishchenko video interview. Since the article discusses the rumored US airbase in preparation in NE Syria, and a rumored Russian counter-move nearby, it belongs much more in this thread:
First appeared: http://journal-neo.org/2016/01/30/syrias-base-wars/
“Satellite imagery appearing to show the US expanding a formerly disused air strip in Kurdish-controlled northern Syria has been seen by the BBC.
The images, from the security analysts Stratfor, show a runway near the town of Rmeilan being extended from 700m (half a mile) to 1.3km.
The US inviting itself into sovereign Syrian territory and creating a military base to supply its ground forces operating there without UN Security Council approval or invitation by the Syrian government sets a dangerous and unacceptable precedent. But assuming the United States has no interest in actually upholding the very international law it attempts to justify its numerous extraterritorial adventures with, what options does Syria have to head off what is a well-documented conspiracy to strip it of its own sovereign territory and expand from there toward Damascus itself?
The answer can be found in Qamishli, Syria, teetering near the Syrian border with Turkey and only 50 miles west of the US’ alleged airstrip in Rmeilan. Qamishli is the site of what is alleged to be a growing Russian presence, including a burgeoning airbase.”
The author claims that this counter-move could negate the American move, which is nothing but a poorly disguised effort to continue supporting rebels against the Syrian government.
Apparently Saker is saying both move and supposed counter-move are probably exaggerations, feints, deceptions?
The ‘neocons operatives’ are becoming obsolete by every hour in Syria and maybe Iraq too.Evil putin and Assad forces including hz and Iraqi anti daesh coalition is kicking moderate head choppers putts!Did not say US cause there seemed to be three factions struggling with each other now apparently neocons are outgunned at presently,but we will never know till the fat lady yellen sings!Pentagon is sitting it out.For the neocons faction four years of hard work and billions of printed American dollars is turning to dust heaps.Syria was the planned hub for international trade in human parts,Afghan poppy,captagon,arm and money laundering and training ground for headchoppers and liver eaters,but alas all are in ‘pieces on the ground’.The writing is on the wall,”eat your heart out true terrorists in three pieces suites and out of money derivatives”…also did you notice the reach of the so called,’unknown gunmen” is crossing borders…all Daesh top butts better get ready to meet their 40 virgins..swallow some viagra every hour!
I believe the military solution Biden was talking about is not of the Daesh problem, but of the Syrian/Russian victory problem. The UN negotiations are not about defeating Daesh, they are intended, by the Americans and their allies, to achieve at the negotiating table what their terrorist proxies are now unable to achieve on the ground. That is the defeat of the Syrian state and the removal of Assad and his government.
What Biden means is that if America is defeated and this goal cannot be achieved at the table, then the US will frustrate a Syrian-Russian victory on the ground, by military means. The US does not have to defeat Daesh. So long as it can turn Syria into a permanent failed state, it will have achieved a partial win. If it can’t have Syria, then neither will the Syrian people and their allies. This is what I think Biden means, and it can be achieved by means of a limited Turkish invasion, wider US bombing and the use of special forces/operations.
According to Engdahl here 28th, based on that meeting a week ago Sunday, they absolutely do plan on going in! Likely by having the talks fail, which will happen anyway.
Instead, Washington endorsed Erdoğan’s ongoing ethnic cleansing, thinly veiled as a war against terrorist PKK, against the Turkish Kurd population and their Syrian Kurd allies. Moreover, Biden, standing beside the Turkish leaders, announced that if the diplomatic Geneva talks this week on Syria failed, military action in Syria will follow: “We do know that it would be better if we can reach a political solution but we are prepared—we are prepared if that’s not possible—to have a military solution to this operation in taking out Daesh.”
First appeared: http://journal-neo.org/2016/01/28/joe-biden-seduces-erdogan/
Certified 5-star Thugsta’:
http://dailystar.com.lb/dailystar/Pictures/2015/12/11/477007_img650x420_img650x420_crop.jpg
The military operation against Fallujah and its 2000 insurgents took like 15,000 marines and the power of the US military might. although raqqa has like 3000-5000 IS fighters it does have like 80,000 or so civilians and mosul has like 2 millions civilians and most all IS fighters in Iraq. Neither turkey or the US has the military might to take either city. Neither does Iraq.. The SAA could if they clean up northern Syria blockade the city but as we saw in Iraq, the blockade did not defeat the insurgents. I think both cities will be blockaded for years and that’s about it. They could just bomb both of them to rubble like the US did in Iraq but they still did not defeat the insurgents. They killed a lot of civilians. And I also doubt either the Syrian or Iraqi governments would allow such saturation bombing of their people. Most likely would end up like Chechnya or Donbas..
The ‘insurgents’ in Fallujah were Iraqis fighting an invading army. Those in Raqqa are mercenaries, who will stop when the $$ dry up.
There is no reason for the US to build a base in Rmeilan when they could build it a few kilometers further in Iraq (on some maps it is almost on the border) or in Turkey. Neither is there a reason for the US to ask the Europeans to “help” it in Syria when it does on average two to three air attacks a day and says to have no more targets. The Brits are now mostly kept busy with recognition flights.
That raises the question what the US is really up to in Syria. All those acts are violations of Syrian sovereignty so my impression is that the US wants to establish precedents and gain accomplices for further (and more serious) violations of Syrian sovereignty.
This was predictable to derail peace talks -as if it was needed:
At least 45 killed in Damascus suburb bombings, ISIS claims responsibility
https://www.rt.com/news/330764-damascus-bomb-attack-isis/
Reuters puts the death toll at 60.
Sorry, Saker–something is up. Maybe a NATO-Turkey ( US proxies) more open conflict with Russia? Biden acts like a fool but is no fool–his malapropisms are just expressions of his deep contempt for political,diplomatic expression. Now, the neocon grouping is convinced that they have the key to “taking down Russia” which is what this is all about. Their formula is that the comgined cost of Chernobyl and Afghanistan delivered the one-two punch that destroyed the USSR, ergo, if the pattern is repeated it will work like a charm.
These folks are not dialectical thinkers even the worst ones who might fraudulently claim to be ex Trotskyists. Cause and effect without context is a set up for shooting yourself in the foot. Plus, they are faced with a chaotic slate of wanna be Presidents with a pseudo socialist looking like he might just upset the apple cart if a rogue Republican does not trump the process and take the game away first. It is possible that they will show their hand and lose the game this year, however.
Foreign policy is often determined, especially the timing of it, by domestic political needs. A case for this can be made in the early years of Hitler’s consolidation of state power in Germany and this is the year the neocons hoped to consolidate their soft coup in the USA –something they have been working on assiduously since 2001. (Remember, that for the last 20 years, the Vice President is the neocon ace in the hole so pay attention to the Vice Presidential nominees in the end game)
https://www.rt.com/news/330755-russia-turkey-brawl-us/
Even Engdahl says now something really big is coming, within next few months likeliest.
at bottom of his article 28th quoted above he says it, as well as these machinations going on I haven’t read till now. Lucky for Erdogoon, he is to get that EU 3 billion Euro “refugee money” by end of February, so he won’t have to foot anything out of pocket to pay for his coronation:
The Grand Sultan?
In March this year, as a result of collusion between the Saudi monarchy of Salman and Erdoğan, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi was coerced to hand over a vital political post to Erdogan. Erdogan will soon lead the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), considered to be the Muslim ‘UN,’ coming second to the United Nations in size and global power.
Saudi Arabia arranged the Turkey-Egypt talks setting the framework for a peace deal between Turkey and Egypt, to be finalized before April when Al-Sisi will hand over the leadership of the OIC to Erdoğan.
http://journal-neo.org/2016/01/28/joe-biden-seduces-erdogan/
http://rlv.zcache.com/tayyip_erdogan_love_double_sided_star_ceramic_christmas_ornament-r30c80a0ebd7749848abce7d8b9cc6559_x7s2g_8byvr_512.jpg
I would expect the US to pressure Turkey into invading to establish a “buffer zone” – which would also keep the Turkish border OPEN – not closed – in order to allow ISIS to continue to infiltrate into Syria. The US does NOT want ISIS cut off from Syria and neither do the Turks. The US STILL intends to further degrade Syria’s military and if possible to overthrow Assad come hell or high water. So does Turkey and so does Israel. They are all working in tandem for this end, despite the occasional dispute over how open to be about it (such as when Turkey shot down the Russian fighter.)
However, once Turkey invades partway into Syria, it is entirely possible that the US will use this as an excuse to also invade Syria or at least use its air power against Syrian forces in support of Turkey. This would depend on whether Assad takes the bait and retaliates against Turkish forces.
Remember, this approach was used previously in this crisis. ISIS forces fired into Turkey on several occasions – including just recently – to provoke return fire from Turkey against Syrian Army forces, in an attempt to justify a NATO intervention. The same tactic was used on the Israeli side of Syria. In all cases, Syria did not return fire, so the ploy failed.
But a full-scale invasion of a significant portion of Syria by Turkey would have to be answered by Syria.
What Russia would do in that event is unclear. Russia does not want a war with Turkey, nor does Russia want any excuse to be presented for the US to directly start a full-scale air war against Syria. But if Russia allows Turkey to forcibly hold the border open for ISIS, then the civil war cannot be won by the Syrian Arab Army, regardless of Russian air power. Both the Russian Air Force and the Kurdish ground forces would be prohibited from engaging ISIS along the Turkish border – which is critical for any sort of stabilization of the situation.
It may be inconceivable that the US would escalate the situation to this extent – using Turkey as a “proxy invasion force” – but I would not put it past Obama, Biden and the rest to do this.
I wonder if the Rmelian base is simply to effect a jihadi based rerun of Operation Paperclip – so that the US can airlift out its favourite liver-eaters for use another day in a different theatre of chaos.
Patrick Cockburn of the “Independent” has a fresh analysis “Syrian civil war: Could Turkey be gambling on an invasion?”.
Says, taking in account Erdogan’s extreme unpredictability, Turkey’s invasion is not unlikely. Kurds now control most of the Syria’s border with Turkey, save for a stretch in the middle, west of Euphrates river. This is the only place now where Turkey can continue trade with ISIS (oil ↔ arms supplies), and Erdogan would not have this venue shut by Kurds. The things are going so badly for the proud “Sultan”, that while he “could respond to this by accepting a fait accompli”, “if the alternative is failure and humiliation” he well may gamble against the military odds and intervene.
“Developments in the next few months may determine who are the long-term winners and losers in the region for decades.” …
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syrian-civil-war-could-turkey-be-gambling-on-an-invasion-a6844171.html
I amconfused about the Kurds in Syria (PYD-YPG)
In one side, Russia has been pressuring for them to have a delegation seat in Geneva taklks. A fact that Turkey, and eventually USA, opposed.
In the other side, the well-informed Therry Meyssan said that PYD leadership betrayed the historical PKK line (which was pro-Syrian and Leftist) to put PYD and YPF in service of a new French-Isralei plan: the partition of Syria in Sunnnistan Alawitestan and Kuristan, a plan that Barzani (leader of Ira Kurds) is a masterpiece.
And the sympathy of Soroasian “leftists” to Kurds, the countinous hammering of Kurds in Wester “leftist” press (a deliberate way to obliterate the main contradiction in Syria: the strugle between anti-mperialist SAA vs pro-imperialist FSA/ISIS), makes my suspicions grow…
Has anybody an answer?
Turkey is never going to allow a partition and let the Kurds get their own state. The Iraqi scenario is different since the gangsters make a lot of money of stealing Iraqi oil. But wait until they declare their own state and watch what turkey does. The Kurds in Syria are on the Syrian governments payroll and turning against the Syrian government would mean a double whammy with the Kurds up north and the Syria government down south. Without any access to the sea, they would be trapped. As long as Turkey plays with the Iraqi Kurds they will keep doing it because of the money involved for erdo’s family. But they also have no access to markets if not for turkey. I am sure Iran also feels the same way as Syria. It is the gangsterism of turkey that is turning the Kurds against each other and the money involved. The Iraqi kurds are also as corrupt as the gangsters in turkey. Both Iranian and Syrian kurds get government handouts or they would not be able to survive. Seems the Syrian kurds did not get the chance to take over the Syrian oil wells to make the deal IS did with Turkey. Which is the real reason here. Erdo wants to leave the routes open or his terrorists and oil from IS would all dry up and leave the terrorists trapped in Syria without a logistics route for weapons and ammo. But I don’t give this more than 6 months no matter what. Russia will make sure that open border with Turkey is closed. It would be the only way to stop all the terrorists in Syria without having to fight every one of them.
Erdo is playing a game here using the kurds as an excuse for him to keep that terrorist spigot open. The same game Israel is playing on the other side. Both think they can get cheap Syrian lands and resources using the right to protect or chapter 5 or what not. Look what both of them do under the guise already.
@ Oxandabaratz and mmiriww
The important fact to keep in mind that the Kurdish question is an existential one for Turkey as a state. In conversations over years with local Kurds in a major U.S. city on the East Coast where I live, I learned that Kurds in fact constitute way over 1/3 of the population of Turkey (not including here those Kurds who got “assimilated”, meaning, forgotten their language and culture). Which means, if the entire Kurdish region in Turkey secedes – as it should – a viable Turkey would be no more, Erdogan or no Erdogan.
All that you say about the Kurdish factions other than PKK is correct, they are under a thoroughly corrupt leadership – Barzani in particular! My Kurdish interlocutors are unanimous that the only true representative of the Kurdish people is PKK, Kurdistan Worker’s Party, as has been the case for the last three decades.
Yes, indeed: an “American slide (er, side) show. The US slips and slides to ? I don’t think they know themselves (double the meaning).
As par for his course, the Saker sets the record straight which is reassuring.
I’m an American with so many personal slips and slides that I don’t know where I’m going with certainty. Since this vineyard bewitched me the wicked witch of the west has lost much of her magic and all of her charm.
The other factor that provides me comfort is quantum mechanics. I don’t pretend to understand it but I can repeat some of its slogans. It seems I walk on probabilities rather than certainties in physical space-time. So when I slip I may not slide.
“Man, what are you talking about?….”
I’m always talking about love in one form or another. In this case, I’m saying that love is the only probable certainty. If I think that is a contradiction, I’ve never been in love because love is blind to contradictions. I’ve never been in true love so it’s not a contradiction to me.
Is OT on-topic or off-topic? Am I on or off? I can’t tell all by myself. That’s one of the reasons I need a community like the present company just to keep current with what’s happening in the real world if not for anything else.
It’s a good thing the Russians aren’t taking any chances with the West and Erdogan by trying to figure out their next irrational move. They seem to be dotting all their i’s and crossing all their t’s.
A part of Russia’s success in Syria has been about doing the work needed without regard to what the americans and turks might be up to next.
As someone recently wrote: it seems that God has created Russia to protect us from evil. First Nazi’s and now these neo -fill-in-the-blanks- with whatever, it doesn’t matter. It’s Satan himself.
The US is just flapping around, at a loss for what spanners to throw in Russia’s/SAA’s wheels, and perhaps salvage some of the more compromising Daesh goons – those whom might talk, or those Obama would hate to be seen among Daesh….
But there is no more secrets to hide: all is already known.
This “project” will get nowhere. Mere agitation for lack of a strategy.
Russia will just carry on.
Indeed. All is known. No more secrets. The western PR machine is very confused. This wasn’t taught in their classes.
I don’t like the reference ‘The Umpire’. If I give you a gun and immunity who would you shoot? None of my american colleagues knows anything about Assad or the damned pipeline. Even worse is the reference ‘the americans’. There is a circle in Washington that is financed by MIC and AIPAC money and they are the ones responsible, and we need a better understanding of who those people are.
Even the term ‘Washington’, while a thousand times more appropriate, is not that accurate. Washington is far from monolithic. Is Obama on the same page with McCain? As horrible as Obama has been, we would definitely be in the bunkers right now if McCain was US president.
Obama’s position in the Middle East is far from clear. If you know his position – please tell me. I know a lot of people are pushing him for war, and I know he is a tool, but he is not completely without his own mind. Some uncomfortable questions need to be addressed. Why did Obama end the embargos on Iran and Cuba? Why does Netanyahu hate him? What do you make of those rumors that he threatened to shoot down Israeli planes if they try to bomb Iran? In Ukraine, yes, sanctions and now ‘non lethal aid’ , BUT, do you believe the neocons are happy?
I see a lot of intelligent people here. I can tell how smart everyone is based on his presentation, not his position. But uncomfortable questions are never asked, and it really doesn’t sound like objective analysis of the situation.
Has anybody thought that if the US goals in Syria seem unclear it is because… even in Washington people don’t know what the hell they are gona do? Obama is on the way out. Trump is much less truculent than even Obama, who was tripping the neocons already. Washington is 100 times more complicated than Moscow, sorry. With all the problems in Kremlin, Putin’s government is significantly more streamlined and consistent. I read a lot of spit on Medvedev here, but when he was in charge i didn’t see one degree change in Russian foreign policy. I don’t know what to make of that.
And a last point in my long rant – never underestimate how incompetent the US government is. Even the Pentagon. Look at the 1 trillion F35 fiasco that will bankrupt the defense to enrich a private company. Is that in the interests of a strong US military? Why do you think they have a clear vision of what they want to happen in Syria?
@ back2freedom says ” If I give you a gun and immunity who would you shoot?”
My rhetorical answer would be, “Quite a few of my own American relatives!” They know MSM is pure crap, but refuse to stop consuming lies and repeating garbage about Russia being the “aggressor”. Call them on their responsibility,quite possibly for this cold war turning into a hot, global war and most of them will reject ANY responsibility, and express outrage that they have been subjected to a few minutes of thoughts that do not bring them pleasure, if you suggest they are not even troubling to realize that they are contributing to our government acting as the aggressor, the provocateur of acts of WAR already for several years .How dare you!?
Since you can’t shoot half the country and shooting the top culprits would solve nothing, as there are replacement culprits in depth, your rhetorical question lacks utility. My more serious reaction is: Yes, there is complexity and muddle all the way from the bottom to the very top of American society, but that’s NO excuse for any of us, top to bottom or in between. We are in a civilizational crisis and we had better clean up our act, quickly, instead of wishing that others understand our magnificently complex muddle.
As to your sentence, “But uncomfortable questions are never asked, and it really doesn’t sound like objective analysis of the situation.” I wouldn’t say that at all. Many, maybe most visitors to the vineyard of the saker are from abroad. They know Washington is not monolithic but they also know that the resistance to Empire is still pathetically weak here, and they probably see more utility in building resistance abroad than tackling our mess. How can you blame them?
Obama? He’s more dangerous than McCain a) because he is glib enough to get elected twice and b) he’s far more deceptive. 3) he’s also 100% an imperial creature, and a killer to boot. So people don’t trust that the things you mention are any cause for them or Russia or China to relax their guard.
You are not sincere mate. I work at a corporate office and nobody here knows who is fighting who in Syria. Even with the MSM brainwashing, this is too boring news for most. They, the people, don’t care. MIC cares, AIPAC cares, and they own a lot of people. You need to know who those people are so you can guide your disappointment in the right direction. To say Obama is more dangerous than McCain is not serious, sorry for being blunt but that’s completely wrong. All this big article about Iran embargo lifted. Not one word about who did it. You think McCain would have let that happen? Have you seen him fuming while talking about Iran? You think the NEOcons did that? The NEOcons lifted the embargo because Iran ‘Won’? How dishonest do you have to be, even if you sympathize with Russia, to deny that Iran didn’t win, Iran was helpless to do anything other than survive all this time, and Obama lifted the embargo on Iran, despite the fierce resistance from the neocons. If Ted Cruz becomes president – guess what – you will need another article, that will say ‘Iran Lost’, because Cruz will drop the sanctions right back on. Because it is up to Cruz, and not up to Iran. Hurts? It’s true. Clinton will probably drop back the sanctions too, after all that Saudi money she received.
So understanding is important. Obama McCain, and Trump Cruz, and there are too many events in the future that will determine the policy of ‘The Empire’.
No, I’m completely sincere, and moreover we actually agree for the most part. Except, that you can actually say,
” I work at a corporate office and nobody here knows who is fighting who in Syria. Even with the MSM brainwashing, this is too boring news for most. They, the people, don’t care.. ”
and seemingly imply that that is their perfect right and “choice” to not know and not care. That’s the real disagreement! They have no such right to be so stupid and immoral. They could find out, if they wanted to, couldn’t they?
The political “differences” in the American Empire’s various factions are like those between Democrats and Republicans–at best, they are *tactical* differences about how to achieve the same overarching strategic agenda.
Through it all, they all believe in the fundamental agenda of maintaining and, preferably, expanding unipolar American domination of the world.
Both Democrats and Republicans (from Sanders to Trump), liberals and conservatives, support this cult-like belief in American political, economic, military, and even cultural and moral supremacy.
This is what Obama means when he talks about believing in American Exceptionalism “with every fiber” of his being in his 2014 West Point speech.
As such, there’s a dime’s worth of difference between these American foreign policy factions–like choosing between Coke and Pepsi or McDonald’s and Burger King.
In fact, there’s an old saying which Barack Obama has himself echoed: “America’s political differences end at the water’s edge.”
The danger was palpable in November of last year when the US high command sent a handful of clowns over the Turkish border into Syria to boost morale among the moderate rebels and Turkmen. Mission accomplished – most of the died with a smile on their face.
Now the Pentagon has discovered an abandoned air strip in the North-East corner of Syria. This could well be a game-changer – or at least a great location for some solid slapstick action, interspersed with monkey chatter by the likes of Hillary, Breedlove & Chomsky.
P.S.
Meanwhile the SAA and allies are 24/7 decimating the $-mercenaries slowly, steadily, systematically, irreversibly.
“Military sources told the agency that the raised alert level at Turkey’s airbases means “full readiness for any actions,” and gives the pilots authority to react to threats without having to ask clearance from higher headquarters.”
southfront post from 12 hrs before
http://southfront.org/turkish-air-force-placed-on-orange-alert/
watch out rus?
4 x SU35s arrive in Syria
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/take-note-turkey-russias-new-su-35s-arrives-syria-15079
Hello Saker, my comment is not related to the article but i thought you might like to know if you don’t already.
The Washington Standard put up an article by Tim Brown about Mr Lavoy Finicuma shooting at the hands of FBI agents. This video shows Lavoy Finicum was shot while his hands were up “first” by one of the agents by the trucks. It also shows Finicum point at “the agent” who shot him “first” while pressing against his side area where he was shot.
Even before i watched this video i suspected that maybe he was putting his hands on his side because he was shot there and that this is what they used to say it was justified.
When they release the coroners report i guess more details will come to light.
Best regards,
the link: http://thewashingtonstandard.com/category/constitutionandlaw/
LoL of the century and I am so laughing my ass out like it’s 1960. So what has U.S been doing all this while with its failed coalition ? Preparing non military solution ? The game has changed and picture on the ground is clear. U.S and its cronnies may just need to go back home but little sense and history will no teach them anything..
What I am happy about is, the transition into a muti-polar world is prgressing everyday and the anglozionist empire (Anglo America+Anglo Saxon + the Zionist Israel + All their Pamement Puppets (E.g all the countries in NATO,Saudi Arabia,Japan,Qatar) +Temporary Puppets (E.g Boko haram, Deash,ISIL,IS,.. ) is taking the back seat.
It will be tough before it gets better but don’t worry it will be better. I hope BRICS win the economic war. The battle field is cleared even in an all out war, the anglozioist empire is checkmated..
Well, the deportation of thousands of ‘migrants’ will certainly boost the recruitment of takfiris to swell the thinned-out ranks of Da’esh.
Ever wonder at Germany’s beyond-crazy migrant ‘policy?
Just why Merkel and Co did absolutely nothing to stop the influx?
Or how easy it was for Erdo to wring three billion from them ?
According to this, German foreign policy has been secretly supporting the Muslim Brotherhood at the instruction of UNO player, Jeffrey Feltman (U S neo-con.) with the objective of destroying Syria for over a decade:
http://www.voltairenet.org/article190102.html
What is that money going to be spent on?
I can’t believe the German electorate are not up in arms about this.
Ps I wonder how the new Egyptian gas-find in the Med changes the energy power-dynamics in the region? Currently, Israel is hitting Egypt with a lawsuit over refusal to keep supplying them with cheap gas. And what if Egypt moves to become a European supplier, so threatening Israeli plans to exploit Leviathan?
Is Egypt up next for a ‘colour revolution’?
Russian Geopolitician: Trump is real America by Alexander Dugin.
Well, can one get more stupid than that !
It’s not only gringo’s f***ed up brains think that they “country” U>S. , really the Union is America not a continent and now a Durak form Russia and the like call that Trump-et such.
Trump is a working class-grounded billionaire. He’s hamburgers and fries, hands on, hard work ethic, family, God and country guy.
Dugin has it right.
Just because he has skills to acquire wealth does not separate him from the middle class. And like any good person, he cares about others doing better.
Why be antagonistic to a potential leader of the US who speaks of peace and cooperation with Russia and the other nations that do not threaten the US?
Your reaction is seemingly knee-jerk or misguided.