Dear friends,
Thanks for all your replies to my latest post. I will join the discussion later today. Right now, just a few short “bullet style” news updates
- The Russian Duma delegation has abandoned its plans to travel to the US to speak with US Congressmen after House Speaker John Boehner refused to meet with them.
- Russian military sources indicate that the main threat to Damascus will come from cruise missiles launched from the southern direction by USN warships in the Red Sea which would overfly Jordan and strike Damascus. If so, this would justify a retaliatory strike on Jordanian targets.
- The same sources claim that while USN has the largest number of surface vessels around Syria, Russia has more submarines. My guess is that they are shadowing US warships in the Mediterranean.
- Russia is sending the following ships to the eastern Mediterranean:
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| Large Landing Ship “Nikolay Filchenkov” |
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| Destroyer Nastoichivyi |
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| Large anti-submarine destroyer Smetlivy |
Note: According to al-Akhbar, the “Nikolay Filchenkov” carries a “special cargo” for Syria.
The Saker
Hi Saker,
First, thanks so much for all your work, since the beginning but especially these past few weeks.
1) Would Russia still be able to track missiles fired from the Red Sea and give Syria early warning?
2) I don’t know what Iran’s covert capabilities are, but if it can, it should secretly target KSA oil refineries and pumping stations in order to bring up the price of oil and also deny revenue to the main instigator and financier of this crisis. Plausible deniability is key, so no overt attacks.
3) Re: Straight of Hormuz, I don’t think an open closure is warented, so long as the prospect remains another rung on the escalation ladder. However, I read somewhere that Iran may stop oil tankers denying them “innocent passage” through Iranian waters. This would be on the premise that insurance companies have been forced to sanction Iran and that in the event of an oil spill, they would not compensate Iran as they would be required to for any other country. It sounds like strong legal reasoning to me, and perhaps it is time Iran pressed the point.
4) I never liked the Duma visit to congress because a) It is unlikely to sway any votes. b) Obama has said he will attack anyway, and may do so after getting senate approval and not even bothering with the House(!!) and lastly, c) It gives way too much legitimacy to the congress. Acts of aggression don’t become kosher because congress says they are, and I suspect the whole thing is meant to distract from the lack of any UNSC mandate.
I would like to echo Lysander’s thanks, I haven’t seen anything even close to this level of analysis and commentary anywhere else.
Have you seen from rt’s reporting on the G20:
http://rt.com/news/putin-g20-syria-meeting-511/
Seems like the final appeal to reason and decency has unfortunately fallen on deaf ears.
Re: Cruise missile launches from the Red Sea. Since Jordan does not have a red sea coastline other than a few miles at the northernmost end of the Gulf of Aqaba with zero available leeway for maneuvering warships, those missiles would also have to overfly KSM too. There would clearly be no problem with permissions from that quarter but it would also render KSM a legitimate and perfectly legal target for retaliation with PG oil installations the natural targets.
yes, please keep up the great blogging. very insightful stuff.
@Lysander @Anonymous Lurker @Anonymous: thanks a lot for your kind words, I immensely appreciate that. This is the kind of stuff I can look back on when I get discouraged and it gives me energy and hope, so thanks *A LOT*!
@Lysander:Would Russia still be able to track missiles fired from the Red Sea and give Syria early warning?
That would be much harder unless Russia sends a few AWACs over Syria which, as far as we know, they have not done.
Straight of Hormuz, I don’t think an open closure is warented, so long as the prospect remains another rung on the escalation ladder
I told you that is strategic instincts are excellent ;-))
I read somewhere that Iran may stop oil tankers denying them “innocent passage” through Iranian waters. This would be on the premise that insurance companies have been forced to sanction Iran and that in the event of an oil spill, they would not compensate Iran
I never heard that by but this sounds extremely interesting, not to mention safer that closing the Straight of Hormuz with military means. I don’t know if that is possible, but I love the sound of it, please let us know if you hear more about this option!
@Anonymous Lurker:Seems like the final appeal to reason and decency has unfortunately fallen on deaf ears.
Yes, I get the same feeling exactly
@Wikispooks: those missiles would also have to overfly KSM
Either that or Israel. But what is certain is that the southern direction is the weak underbelly of Syria and, according to the Russians, where the air defenses are the weakest while the terrain is excellent for cruise missiles
Thank you for your blogging! I have been a visitor of your blog for a few years now, and visit your blog on a daily basis in addition to the news. You provide very insightful commentary and excellent informative analysis which isn’t available anywhere in the mainstream media.
Thank you!
Важное событие произошло. ВМФ России отработал действия на случай военного конфликта у берегов Сирии http://www.interfax.ru/news.asp?id=328100
Особенно выделю :” группировка ВМФ отработала весь алгоритм действий, связь, а также противовоздушную и противолодочную оборону корабельных групп и отдельных единиц при возможном начале боевых действий в районах их нахождения. Особое внимание уделено защите от подводных диверсантов.”