Dear friends
This will be my last hurricane-related post (God willing!). Tomorrow my family and I will finish moving the objects we can salvage from the house. But on Wednesday I hope to write at least a short commentary about the huge events taking place in Russia and the Ukraine. I also want to write a commentary on Putin’s speech which I see as the most important speech in his career. God willing later in the week (I need to get my hands on a ergonomic keyboard).
I want to thank all those who have helped us with their donations (which right now we need more than ever!): thank you so much for helping my family, we are all deeply grateful for your help!
My plan is to return to semi-normal blogging by early next week.
I apologize, but I am still too busy and too exhausted to reply to emails.
One last time, I ask for your patience, support and understanding.
Many thanks and kind regards
Andrei
Best wishes of recovery the all the raevkies.
Several days in the dark.
We badly need your clarifying comments on what s going on in Russia and in the newly back-home returned provinces.
I am relieved to hear that your family is alright and beginning to manage this disaster.
So much is happening very quickly on the world stage and the next few months look to be pivotal. President Putin has let the world know which direction Russia is going into the future with his speech and he was very clear about this.
I really appreciated this recognition in his speech:
“The world has entered a period of revolutionary transformations, which are fundamental in nature. New development centers are being formed, they represent the majority – the majority! We are ready not only to declare our interests, but also to protect them, and we see multipolarity as an opportunity to strengthen our sovereignty, which means that we can gain true freedom, a historical perspective, our right to independent, creative, original development, and a harmonious process.
As I have already said, we have many like-minded people all over the world, including in Europe and the United States, and we feel and see their support. A liberating, anti-colonial movement against unipolar hegemony is already developing in various countries and societies. Its subjectivity will only grow. It is this force that will determine the future geopolitical reality.”
I think president Putin is correct that the majority of the people of the world want nothing to do with some wierd homo/transhumanist unipolar hegemony. The majority is even against this craziness in Europe and the U.S. despite the massive propaganda campaigns in Western media outlets. The unipolar world is at its end and the world can’t let these crazy people drag the majority of the planets inhabitants down with it.
“….the majority of the people of the world want nothing to do with some wierd homo/transhumanist unipolar hegemony. The majority is even against this craziness ….”
Nicaragua has already placed it’s cards on the table. I reckon as confidence in Russia grows more countries will assert themselves and shake off the parasites.
Nicaragua knows well the tactics of the Empire. I am sure Daniel Ortega has not forgotten these lessons from the early ’80s, for example:
Nicaragua Curbs Energy Use Following Oil Facility Attacks
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1983/10/25/nicaragua-curbs-energy-use-following-oil-facility-attacks/8b7f9313-3a43-49d6-9de0-8a9e10444c5c/
Psychological Operations in Guerrilla Warfare (Operaciones sicológicas en guerra de guerrillas)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_Operations_in_Guerrilla_Warfare
Small wonder they have their cards on the table, eh?
Andrei, Salvage The old photos, even if wet with sea water. Most will be fine, but some may like a like a light clean with fresh water, to remove the salt, and slowly dried in the Florida Sunshine
“Nord Stream pipelines can be restored – Moscow”
https://alethonews.com/2022/10/02/nord-stream-pipelines-can-be-restored-moscow/
“Russia may be able to fix the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which were damaged earlier this week, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak said on Sunday.
“There are technical possibilities to restore the infrastructure, it requires time and appropriate funds. I am sure that appropriate opportunities will be found,” Novak told Russia 1 TV.”
Tony
Wish you all the best and all the best of luck in salvaging your house.
Happy you have salvaged some stuff after the hurricane good luck to you.
I’m still grateful you and your family are okay, and also grateful that you taught us how to identify trollery. They are so legion one would lose hope otherwise. Honestly, according to what appears to be a majority of commenters elsewhere, everything Russia reportedly does or does not do seems to be a “fatal mistake”! It was a good idea to have commenters log in here. The cafe still seems to be open and useful.
Holding you and the family in the light. GodSpeed, all will continue to be well. Thank you for your eventual post; a speech that I have enjoyed many time, over and over. God Bless, Amen.
Hi, Andrei, and everybody.
As I understand, the key speech of Putin (maybe in his career – Ishchenko says) is that one http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465 – in EN here http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465
Ishchenko gave comments here https://ukraina.ru/20220930/1039244495.html and here https://ukraina.ru/20221001/1039283761.html and maybe here, too https://ukraina.ru/20221003/1039297020.html – but it is in RU only.
It would be we very difficult – in circumstance done – to express yourself fully ad fast, by I hope for the next weeks…
But here are other guys, friends, comrades – try to express your views! – Maybe in some threads…
Interesting that you see Vladimir Putins’ speech on the reunification as the most important of his career – it did seem to me it was on par with his speech on International security at Munich, 2007. They are, I believe, on the same track, on the same issues. This has been happening, after all, for a long time.
Reminds me of the old saying “cometh the hour, cometh the man”.
Hope things settle fo ryou soon Saker – a horrible experience, but at least all loved ones are safe and well, and this, in the end, is all that matters.
Just sent you a token well-wish. Hope you and family the best.
I think many of you will like this article. Very thoughtful and in agreement with Andrei’s assessment of Putin’s recent speech. It’s by Patrick Lawrence.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/10/03/patrick-lawrence-the-strong-and-the-merely-powerful/
Dear Andrei,
I seldom comment in this blog(except during occasional “comment binges” ) but read your site regularly. Relieved to know that you and your family are safe and managing this disaster.
Best wishes to you and do hope that you manage to salvage as many things as possible. There are no hurricanes in my country(Malaysia) so I can’t (and dare not) imagine what it’s like.
Emotionally , I have yo-yoed from elation to despondency(whenever Russia /Eurasia bloc suffers setbacks/defeats) – compounded by psychological attack by “concerned trolls”. Your website and many good commenters here keep the sanity. Thanks so much for your site!
Take care!
Why the current silence in all western media regarding Russia?
Because we all instinctively knows what is going to happen next.
Winter is approaching to kill thousands of freezing Europeans.
By end of October, the last pipelines from Russia to the EU will be shut off.
All of western Ukraine will be cut off from the power stations in southern and Eastern Ukraine.
Russia will launch a winter campaign and eradicate the NATO proxy Army and regime in Kiev.
Europeans will switch on all of their electrical heaters and black out Europe from Norway to Italy.
All European industry will be emergency shut down and millions will be laid off.
Millions of Europeans will riot in the capitals of Europe and Britain.
The Financial crisis will return with a vengeance to bankrupt European Banks, States and Citizens.
The Bankruptcies in Europe will spill over to the US, making Lehmann look like a walk in the Park.
Urban citizens in the west will line up in ques to buy the remaining food supply at hyper inflated prices.
All while NATO Nations fears a response to the Bombing of Moskva, North Stream 1 and 2.
What could it be?
A US Gas tanker going up in flames in the Atlantic.
A Super tanker exploding in the Bay of Aden.
A Nuclear facility erupting in Ukraine, the Negev Desert or England.
A pipeline exploding in the Middle East, The Black Sea, The North Sea, The Norwegian Sea, or in the US.
In fact there is no need for Englishmen or Asian Teachers to scare Sinotibetan or European women.
NATO aims for a new Iron Curtain, while the Majority of inhabitants on the Globe are turning toward a multi polar world of international cooperation on equal terms, National sovereignty and peace.
A silence in Western media?? Not, at least, in the UK’s gutter rag Daily Mail.
Today, in massive headlines, we learn, for instance that ” Putin deposed. Russia broken up, and NATO facing off with China” expert says will be outcome of a war Russia is losing.
The top headline screams ” Ukraines troops storm 10 miles in 4 hours and liberate dozens of towns as Russia’s frontline near Kherson collapses despite Putin vowing they would be Russian forever”.
There is more, but you get the drift. The extent of lies, of perception manipulation has to be seen to be believed. But it is believed if the comments and approving green ticks are anything to go by.
it’s feasible, of course, to say this is only a reflection of the type of person who reads the Daily Mail, clearly the most stupid, ill educated and incapable of thought of the entire population around the world.
But it still amounts to quite a lot. The other UK papers are similar, but I dont check on them as they want me to pay them money, something there are not enough wild horses to achieve. :-)
I actually think the more panic stricken the PTB in these hell holes are, the louder and more ridiculously lying the headlines and articles are becoming.
Pamela St wrote:
A silence in Western media?? Not, at least, in the UK.
My comment:
Well that must be a difference between the UK and the Nordic media. Over here the WOKE politicians are beginning to wonder how hard NATO and WOKE policies are going to backfire on ourselves, while NATO agents are scrambling to raise National military budgets to 2% of GDP, in order to protect our own territory.
Pamela St wrote:
The more panic stricken the PTB are, the louder and more ridiculously lying the headlines and articles are becoming.
My comment:
That is my experience too.
It is a bit curious that the panic in London is greater than in the Nordic Nations, where the NS-1 and 2 was attacked. Maybe London fears the consequences of sabotage more that Nordic politician does.
Did London by any chance bomb NS-1 and 2?
In any case we can both use the autumn to chop some fire wood, and knit a woolen Sweater at the fireplace. Keep your spirit Pamela, it is needed more than ever.
We’ve all read the speeches both from President Putin and our western leaders. Each new one is heralded as a breakthrough, but in reality are just more words. The west is not winning the war of sanctions and Russia is not winning militarily. What actually happened is a stalemate which on one wanted and has led to both sides threatening a retaliatory nuclear response.
Before we move onto talk of a new Eurasian Empire challenging the west, Russia needs to get the Ukraine problem sorted out quickly and drop the pretence that an initial undermanned Russian force could easily defeat the Ukraine and all the NATO advisers, mercanaries and weapons it’s flooding the Ukraine with.
How hollow the initial military victories now sound and the allegations of trolling for those who warned that Russia had to put more effort into the intervention and treat this as a proxy war against NATO and not just the Ukraine.
Russia badly needs some military victories and not more ‘important’ speeches.
Indeed,for us outside observers its been very hard to fathom the Russian tactics from the start,slow and steady we were told,well from what i can gather the Nazis are advancing even if slow,they are not retreating after 8 months,Donbass is still shelled every day,its clear as you say Russia never had enough men to get the job done,i could almost be forgiven for thinking that some elements within the Russian military are sabotaging the campaigne,i hope i am mistaken and Russia has a plan that will become evident very soon,looks to me like a massive offensive is required and that should involve hitting targets all over Ukraine command and control and political targets of Zelenskeys inner circle and their Western handlers,this is one battle Russia can not afford to lose just like losing the war aginst Hitler wasn’t an option,the Russian leadership must know that.
I’ve been observing this since the 2014 outset and before that the onslaught in the Middle East to control the oil producers that was promoted as bringing peace and democracy. Rather than sabotage think complacancy, the same complacancy that befell the US in Afghanistan and Syria.
The initial successes were against the Ukraine, currently it’s against the whole of NATO and the slowly pushing forward narrative is no more. The plan is conscription and mobilization, an idea laughed at only a few months ago, but should have occurred as soon as NATO began to supply the Ukraine with advisers and weapons.
Yes, blitz Kiev, strike the infrastructure from which these weapons are arriving, repeat very clearly that foreign mercenaries (advisers) are not subject to the Geneva convention … And start to take this war, because that’s what it is, seriously.
“Gentlemen, we are in WWIII and you are discussion in which language you want it and which subtitles.” © commentator Tommy Jensen
Dear Asia Teacher,
I believe you live in the Sunless British Isles?? So, deep within the cocoon of information blackouts, soul-crushing pessimism, nihilism and overwhelming BS. I assure you, you regurgitate western talking points: “The west is not winning the war of sanctions and Russia is not winning militarily. What actually happened is a stalemate which on one wanted and has led to both sides threatening a retaliatory nuclear response.”
(1) Russia is losing militarily strictly from the Virtual Reality perspective of the thoroughly mind-massaged west. As an Author here, we expect more from you! Where were you the last 7 months when 300-500,000 top UkroNazi cadre and stormtroopers were killed (many evaporated being incinerated within their trench-tombs!) or permanently removed from the battle-space, the Ukraine lost its most VIP territories responsible for 60-90% of GDP, industry, mines, ports and farming land?? And will still lose all of Novorossiya and all Black Sea coast?? Forcing NATO to send even their tactical commanders, waves of suicide charging ISIS-style pick up trucks, and trumpeting up “victories” over abandoned non-strategic villages and hamlets after the calm orderly Russian retreats?? “..even the CNN bullchit network admits that..” © Smoothie
(2) It is the west hysterically bloviating about “retaliatory nuclear response.” The term for this is properly addressed by Russians: nuclear blackmail. Which will get short shrift as they are further shafted even deeper. Which yahoo ever profited from bluffing Iran, China, or Russia?
(3) The mission is demilitarization and denazification. Not mindlessly holding onto land at all costs, which can be reclaimed at leisure later. Have you not listened to the Saker and 1001 commentators these months?? Classic Asian warfare of “attack — bleed the bastard — and retreat” using mobile defenses.. What good will land be to the criminals when they are all dead and fertilizing the rich fat black soil of Novorossiya (with sincere thanks by the way.) These two simple tasks proceed apace mercilessly. And you are impatient! Do you want to drink blood??? Let’s tune out western MSM BS and contrived pessimism and see events as they really are!
Indeed, soon you may get enough “action” to satisfy any degree of bloodlust:
“For quite a while now I decided not to waste my precious time arguing with these lavishly-paid sub-specimens. War is a messy business – and patience is virtue. So let’s go straight to the point.” Pepe
@AHH
I’m well past the age of ‘western talking points’ and was warning about this long before it became fashionable to those who are recently scratching their heads and trying to figure it all out.
When you are pushed back by an offensive that was never thought to be possible, it’s called reality, not western propaganda echoing the same Ukrainian military setbacks as a success. The days of Ukrainian suicide attacks have long since gone and in their place are NATO advisers and NATO supplied modern weapons.
Both sides have warned of a nuclear response.
If you’re not holding onto land, you’re not going to demiliterize or denazify anything. All the lost land now has to be won back again, hence further bloodshed. I listen to many people, which doesn’t mean I always agree. The Ukraine has tens of millions of people, plus NATO advisers, plus mercenaries … That’s an awful lot of manpower to defeat using a last man standing attempt at victory. The last time that happened was WW1 with waves going at each other in a bloodbath.
As Pepe says, war is a messy business and is quite right to point out that Russia needs to start destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure, which is what some of us were pointing out months ago when the majority were laughing at the suggestion and talking of saving as many lives as possible. I’m happy to see President Putin has finally woken up to the seriousness in the Ukraine and is now ordering conscription which is what the few of us have been suggesting all along.
Asia Teacher,
This is precisely why I attempted to educate. Forgive my fatal love of Hyperbole; do not be defensive or discomfited.. it is not personal. I am a teacher too. You, along with most sincere folks in the West, HAVE swallowed some propaganda:
(1) no one pushed Russia back. All “offensives” were either bait used to get the fools into open steppe to cull them, sallies into northern abandoned sectors while Russian manpower was sent south to bolster referenda in the 4 new little bear provinces, or transient withdrawals to save manpower. Ukies ran out of their armored vehicles and are in no position to push anyone around. Even western armor is currently useless, bogged down in Autumn Mud, sitting ducks for Russians.
(2) NATO is as useless in land war against Russians as their Ukie nazi brethren. Have you not heard of their astonishing levels of deaths?? Up to a third or more of the killed and wounded now are NATO lads, dressed up in Ukie uniforms and mercs outfits… Smoothie confirmed from Russian sources that most intercepted battlefield commander voices are American and British.. this is precisely why they escalate to the nuclear threat at once. Not mere shock at the worthlessness of their military doctrines, prowess, leadership, and weaponry but at the sphincter-loosening Fear that the entire world sees their impotent annihilation and draws appropriate lessons! They are f####ed every which way possible. I must sincerely doff my hat at the power of western mind-marinating PR that sane erudite and intelligent folks like you believe otherwise. But we are products (and hostages) of our specific environment..
(3) “If you’re not holding onto land, you’re not going to demiliterize or denazify anything” 🤣😂🤣 and if that land lacks living UkroNazis? Please review Russian tactics over the last 1000 years. Insurgencies will be nipped in the bud, come Hell or Highwater, by moving mass populations if needed. Ishchenko wrote about it recently. (thx Per) Russians aren’t dainty wishy-washy woke weaklings, and they will bite the bullet as needed, outliving their stupid enemies, that much is crystal clear.
(4) “The Ukraine has tens of millions of people, “ Please take a deep calming breath, close your eyes, think of the common rough ugly Steppe pony (not pink unicorns or African zebras), ignore western fear-porn, and listen closely to the military experts: All the skilled young Ukie men who waited in the trenches on February 23 are now dead. Ze and NATO are now being forced to send babushkas and pregnant [female] conscripts.. this is a hollowed out country. Conscripts last hours to days on the fronts when they arrive. This is not a capable army. It is a cynically collected fodder meat being heaved into the last fray. Its sole purpose is to serve Western PR optics as they gaslight Germans into losing industry and become depopulated due to Cold, Dark and Hunger. It is to buy time. Full stop. The Ukraine is a kitchen for many cooks, the least of which is to defeat undefeatable Ruskies at this point..
It is truly Game Over. Please stop stop believing in the tooth fairy, Santa Klaus or NATO capabilities. What remains is mop-up duty, even if NATO ever straps on the balls to declare itself openly. They have established themselves in the Annals of History (Subheading: “Milquetoast Morons”) alongside the Wehrmacht, Napoleon Bonaparte, the Teutonic Knights and other habitual suicidal ventures..
I’m not in the least ‘defensive or discomfited.’ I just don’t do the PR propaganda both sides use and the beliefs of a ‘mop up’ are already a month out of date.
I admire your optimism AHH and share in it, but not to the point of blind belief. The so-called Russian ‘tactical withdrawals’ recently were to avert a complete catastrophe, not some plan to lure in the Ukrainians in order to kill them.
What started as a civil war between Ukrainian nationalists and ethnic Russians has now turned into a war of NATO v Russia and NATO is no pushover, hence the partial mobilization and the fast inclusion of the new republics into Russia, which now means any attack on them is an attack on Russian sovereignty itself. The slow advance has turned into a slow retreat and it’s now Zelensky’s turn to say he won’t negotiate with Putin.
It wasn’t going to be long before we saw NATO boots on the ground disguised as Ukrainians. Coupled with advisers and modern heavy weapons, it’s about time Russia took this seriously and dropped the ‘SMO’ intervention nonsense and take it for what it really is – a war.
I didn’t buy into the various MSM Ukraine ‘mission accomplished’ surrender excuses, just as I don’t buy into the current ‘we’re being pushed back but we’re winning’ rhetoric either. The partial mobilization is a start and better than all President Putin’s diplomatic worded speeches put together.
Asia Teacher,
I didn’t want to turn our discussion into a tête-à-tête, but you seriously need to get better sources and always keep in mind the Grand Strategy. Without appropriate input, we cannot form informed opinions.. It was always going to turn out into a war of NATO v Russia. They engineer “retreats” precisely to keep NATO pinned close to Russian borders, with unmatched superior logistics and ease of culling them. What would have happened finishing them off quicker?? It would merely move the front to Poland and others further away; they would still have most of their materiel and means; they would not have concurrent pressure of winter, lack of energy, societies in dissolution, etc. The intelligent General selects the terrain to do battle and on his terms.
NATO has been thoroughly exposed in the Donbass, even with mere use of 10-15% of Russian capabilities (largely using local militias and PMCs!), and them being slow to saddle. All this is not provided by western media. One has to daily parse boring Russian MoD bulletins to appreciate the scale of the carnage and catastrophe for NATO. Commentators such as Larch445 do that. Reading his Disqus posts daily is like sifting through a fresh well-used abattoir, too much at times. Conservative losses currently run at 3-500,000 Ukie lives already lost or “deprived of combat capability” according to Russians, i.e. irreversibly damaged. UkroNazis, NATO’s best land army to-date, are finished. NATO is being ground down as we talk too.
I didn’t say mistakes were not made. I am not a mindless Russian fan-boy. There are aspects to Kadyrov’s statement that resonate. The Russian GS is becoming elderly and calcified in ways..
As mentioned, the Ukraine is a massive kitchen with many cooks. A significant part of the Russian culinary staff had to maintain the flavour of the 85% Rest of the World; turning up the heat too fast would spoil the soup! So many moving parts dictated the pace to date. Now all can go ahead to thoroughly sear the pot, and it will be ended quickly, hence mop-up. This is not my wild dream, it is consensus when Russians finally wade in as only they can.. including Americans such as Ritter and Macgregor. Most considered the war lost to Ukraine in first weeks, by early March. It is a testament to the cheapness of Ukie lives, western PR potency, and the suicidality of Europeans it has lasted this long.
Perhaps it is the quintessential dour hyper-skeptical British viewpoint? I admit it is healthy, appropriate to our sad world, and needed most times. But it is a restraint in fast moving times like now, especially sans good battlefield data (situational awareness) and without mindfulness of grand-strategy (to kill NATO on Eurasian land without a nuclear war).. please reread what I wrote in detail. Points 1-4 stand, and not as my sole humble opinion..
@AHH
To be honest AHH, I rarely use othe people’s sources. With a post-graduate degree in the social sciences and many years of teaching the social and political sciences as a core subject, I’m able to form my own world view without the aid of others. Of course, that doesn’t mean I’m always right, but it does mean I’m not swayed by propaganda or the blind faith of bloggers and prefer reality.
Blogs are invariably opinion based sources of information and sometimes they’re right, but they are based on subjective beliefs and often reflect the writers own world views, not necessarily reality.
The reality is that by complacency or poor strategy, or perhaps a combination of both, Russia just received a much needed wake up call. Perhaps you’ll now understand why the slow advance ground to a halt and was pushed back and why a few were warning of the dangers of increasing NATO supplies and involvement instead of trying to find echo chamber excuses. To suggest Russia was ‘mopping up’ in a conflict supported and aided by a combination of 30 NATO countries must be the ultimate in wishful thinking!
Nothing to do with my being British and I stay well away from MSM. Always remember AHH, that propaganda occurs on both sides and truth is the reality, not beliefs or wishful thinking.
Go on, unless you have any questions I’ll give you the last say. Removed. Mod.
Dear Asia Teacher and AHH,
I think it goes without saying that all of us gathered here, are here because we can see the death, darkness and destruction that the West has been dealing on the world for at least a century now. And I think most of us — if not all — want to see a Russian victory. We want to see a Russian victory, even if we are personally not on “Russia’s side”, because we want to see an end to the West’s oppressive hegemony. Many of us live in the West, and yet we are not on the West’s side, because the West treats its own people hardly any better than it treats “foreign” enemies.
So, we all want to see the West humbled, for one, and for two, we want to see WWIII — which Mr. Putin clearly warned of in his recent speech — averted and avoided if possible. So, we are all on the same side here, let’s not forget that.
The big picture, sad and terrifying, but true, is that a massive global conflagration looms large on the horizon. What unites us here is our desire to see this disaster never come to pass. This is the big picture, and this is what we must ‘intend’ with all our being, with every breath and every word and every action. Let us not waste energy fighting and arguing amongst ourselves.
If this dreaded scenario does come to pass, nobody will win. Not the people of the West, not the people of the East, not the people of the North — nobody. All will lose loved ones, all will lose precious belongings, and life will never be the same again, for those few lucky (or unlucky?) who survive to see the new dawn, for it will be a blasted and wretched dawn.
But, in saying all of this — and I can see where both of you are coming from — I must admit that my mind is closer to Asia Teacher’s, if my heart is to AHH’s.
The crux of the matter is, the Russian military always possessed an undeniable grandeur in the minds of most people all over the world. And their performance in Syria, together with the Iranian Resistance, only bolstered the image of this unshakeable grandeur. Many would rank the Russian military as the best in the world. But what the Ukraine debacle has accomplished so far, and I repeat: “so far”, is that the grandeur of Russian military might has been shaken, or at the very least the image of this grandeur has been shaken.
Many people, myself included, thought that Russia would wipe the floor with the Ukraine in a matter of weeks, plant the Russian flag in Kiev, and put NATO and the West in their place in such a massive show of force and strategy as to end all Western aspirations towards war with Russia. Or perhaps, this is what we wished and hoped. This has not come to pass. I can see what AHH is trying to say regarding certain historical tactics which the Tatars used against the Russians, but that does not negate the fact that this war is dragging on, and did not end in a lightning strike assault and a one-two knockout punch.
We who expected — or hoped — Russia to K.O. the Ukraine with one punch, were expecting this because the Ukraine is relatively very small fry. AHH says Russia is fighting NATO in the Ukraine, but how many fighting men has NATO mobilized? How many conscripts? We have seen the US take on a wartime economic policy in the last great war. We know what it is capable of mustering up. What we are seeing in the Ukraine is nothing.
Then there are those that say the West is weak and the West has no production capacity and other such talk. Fatal underestimation of a very powerful enemy, I would say. Those of us here who have perused the pages of the history of empires, from Sargon to Cyrus to Caesar to Genghis, all the way to the Spanish and the British empires, we all know one thing very well: the current hegemon is by far the greater than any who have come before that we know of. So let us not indulge in fantasies of the hegemon’s imagened weakness. If anything, the West has feigned weakness to draw Russia into Ukraine, and judging by Russia’s performance in the Ukraine, each can draw their own conclusions regarding how Russia would fare if faced with full and overt mobilization of force by all of Europe.
I say Europe and not NATO, because in the war to come, the US will go up against China; which is the main battle between the two giants of our time. The US and China enjoy near full and total propaganda control of their populations, which means a wartime mobilization of their economies will result in such a massive production of arms and march of forces that the world has never seen before.
Russia vs Europe is only the secondary show, a fight between the second-rate powers of the world. And neither side even has total control over the minds of its citizens, but still they will mobilize a very massive show of force and production capability when the time comes.
And the third show, between the third rate powers, will be Iran and the Resistance Axis vs Israel, Turkey and the Arabs. This one will be the shitshow, judging by the power of the fifth column element in Iran and the massive popular discontent there which is only matched by the Palestinian discontent in Israel. This one will be a war of nonstop internal betrayal and sabotage and backstabbing and every form of underhanded maneuver that the Jew and the Persian can think of to inflict upon one another. Not to mention the Pakistani ISIS-K running loose in Afghanistan, right on Iran’s flank.
From where I stand, and all the feigned weakness by the West notwithstanding, the two sides appear evenly matched. If Iran had achieved victory in Syria without Russian help, it would have signalled that the balance of power in that region was conclusively in Iranian favor. And if Russia had achieved a quick victory over the Ukraine in a short period of time, again it would have pointed to the balance of power being in favor of Russia.
But the fact remains, gentlemen, the war in the Ukraine is dragging on, and this is not a good sign. If this is how long it takes for Russia to defeat and conquer the Ukrainian territories — backed as they are by NATO — the question is, how long will it take Russia to defeat all of Europe?
Nukes will fly, back and forth, and the war will rage on.
We must accept the reality: in this coming war, there will be no winners. Russia cannot defeat Europe, no more than Europe can defeat Russia. But what they can do is cause unprecedented devastation in each other’s territories.
We must face facts: Russia is not trying to feign weakness in the Ukraine! Russia is trying to demonstrate force in order to deter a NATO attack on Russia. Russia has not succeeded in showing the kind of force that we had all hoped.
From where I stand, WWIII is still on, and Russia is barely a match for Europe.
Do I hope that Russia wins in the Ukraine? Absolutely!
Do I buy the propaganda from the Russian side that “everything is going according to plan”? Only if the plan was always to get bogged down in a long-term military engagement against a relatively weak opponent.
Thank you Mantis, I found that an interesting if lengthy read.
I’m firmly on Russia’s side. Just as Britain stood aloof from the various European utopia building experiments of the 20th century and helped clean them up when they collapsed, I’d like there to be a visible alternative available when our current western cultural revolution goes the same way.
The absolute monrachs have gone, but what we have to remember is that the democracy we now take for granted is a recent historical blip and we’re now reverting back to an age of serfdom, this time led by politicians, bankers and corporations in a benevolent authoritarianism based on corporate fascism.
You’re right when you say the Russians would have wiped the floor with the Ukrainians, but they ended up fighting NATO instead and that’s something completely different. When a combined force of around 30 countries begin to send in mercenaries, modern weapons and military advisers that’s nothing short of involvement, although all are taking care not to call it a war for fear of a nuclear escalation.
President Putin has finally realized that he’s fighting NATO, hence the partial mobilization and the beginning of the destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure and centres of supply which hopefully will cancel out the disadvantage the Russians now have.
The current conflict has nothing to do with Russia invading Europe. All the Russians wanted was a buffer zone against an advancing NATO and to stop the atrocities taking place against ethnic Russians. Perhaps it’s also not a coincidence that having failed to control the Middle East oil producing countries, Russia also happens to be a major world energy producer and the calls for more sanctions and a regime change is standard practice for the west.
j
In all this, we have to be careful not to go down the road of western propaganda and have a copy repeat of the nonsense coming out of it. To say that Russia is winning by retreating and fighting some kind of mystical ‘Asian’ war of attrition as an excuse for the recent military setback just sounds like agenda based propaganda.
@Asia Teacher
@Mantis Toboggan
I concur with both your views. Let’s accept reality that Russia miscalculated how this conflict would go and that recent losses are indeed Russian defeats that need corrections soon.
Have hope and yet be realistic.
And I fully agree, never underestimate the Hegemon. Too often pro Russia /pro Multipolar folks think the actions of the Hegemon + allies are crazy or “stupid”. Yes, many were driven by ideological fanaticism. But there is evil genius in their madness and even in their “stupidity” and ‘irrationality’ – makes them extra dangerous with unpredictable moves.
Apparently the 4 regions formal incorporation into Russia are finally completed today. The ball is in Putin’s court . Hopefully he realizes how dangerous the situation really is and at stake is not just Russia’s survival but even the fate of humanity. It’s time for Putin to stop this conflict once and for all with a decisive victory over Kiev/Hegemon. We can only wait and hope .
“You’re right when you say the Russians would have wiped the floor with the Ukrainians, but they ended up fighting NATO instead and that’s something completely different. When a combined force of around 30 countries begin to send in mercenaries, modern weapons and military advisers that’s nothing short of involvement, although all are taking care not to call it a war for fear of a nuclear escalation.
President Putin has finally realized that he’s fighting NATO…”
The Ukraine was never going to stand alone, and I don’t think anyone — on either side — ever expected that it would.
ISIS did not stand alone in Syria either. ISIS — just as ideologically driven as the Ukrainian nationalists — was just a cover for NATO. And yet, Russia and Iran absolutely wiped the floor with ISIS, and in doing so sent a powerful message to everyone in the region: “Don’t f**k with us. We are superior to you in military might.” And this is why nobody makes a move on Iran militarily. Instead they do this — whatever it is they are doing right now –provoking riots and internal dissent, etc — and the Israelis howl at the moon.
“The current conflict has nothing to do with Russia invading Europe.”
Allow me to quote Mr. Putin.
“I want to make special note of the fact that there is every reason to believe that the Western elites are not going to look for constructive ways out of the global food and energy crisis that they and they alone are to blame for, as a result of their long-term policy, dating back long before our special military operation in Ukraine, in Donbass. They have no intention of solving the problems of injustice and inequality. I am afraid they would rather use other formulas they are more comfortable with.
And here it is important to recall that the West bailed itself out of its early 20th century challenges with World War I. Profits from World War II helped the United States finally overcome the Great Depression and become the largest economy in the world, and to impose on the planet the power of the dollar as a global reserve currency.”
Indeed, the current conflict has nothing to do with Russia invading Europe — as you say. But Mr. Putin sees a broader conflict on horizon in line with WWI and WWII, and in that conflict, Russia will need to disarm Europe, which perforce means invading Europe. Do you follow my line of thought now, friend?
“The absolute monrachs have gone, but what we have to remember is that the democracy we now take for granted is a recent historical blip and we’re now reverting back to an age of serfdom, this time led by politicians, bankers and corporations in a benevolent authoritarianism based on corporate fascism.”
A very significant point indeed. The new order manufactures consent through propaganda, and for example, if war against Russia were put on vote in the West right now, how do you think the people would vote? I believe they would vote exactly how the elite want them to vote. Thus, democracy has already been hijacked and subverted as far as I can see, and the people of the West will happily vote for WW3 when they are called to do so.
So, my friend, this is why we must ‘intend’ loud and clear: NO WW3. We must intend it with all we have, and hope that God or the fates or the wheel of time (or whatever we believe in) turns in our favour and stops the Western elites from carrying out what Mr. Putin says they are planning.
Cheers
Well that makes sense if you are right,time will tell,just seen a report on South Front Russians have pulled back from Northern parts of Kherson before they are encircled,the fact is if you don’t occupy territory the enemy does,Russia just doesn’t have enough troops at the moment.
Just be patient, please. If you are truly an Asia Teacher, you should have known better, patience is an inherent virtue in Asian cultures.
Je suis gêné de voir vos excuse, Prenez le temps qu’il vous faut Andreï.
Courage, mes pensées sont avec vous.
—
I’m embarrassed to see your excuse, Take the time you need Andrei.
Courage, my thoughts are with you.
You sound like you are rising to the challenge. A bit from playing for change that really lifts my spirit and for some reason made me immediately thing of y’all fight ‘in the good fight. The Weight from the Band even has Rajeev from Nepal on it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ph1GU1qQ1zQ&ab_channel=PlayingForChange
Andrei not to cast salt on your wound’s but mother nature can be a real bi###. I was in Florida in 2004 on the east coast right next to Fort Pierce. The first hurricane came through destroying everything, Cat 3 named Jean. Everyone cleaned up got the electricity and water going. Getting back to normal. After 3 weeks here comes a second hurricane, Cat 3 named Francis. Destroyed everything again. Talk about a bummer. Francis hit in the same exact spot that Jean did 3 weeks earlier. Mother nature!
Classic Pepe Escobar, “Pipeline Terror is the 9/11 of the Raging Twenties.”
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/10/04/690345/Pipeline-Terror-911-Raging-Twenties-Viewpoint-Pepe-Escobar
Great stuff from Pepe as always. Putin’s recent speech is discussed and put into context. I highly recommend this article.
After reading Putins speech I feel comforted to know that at least on the following subject Russia is in complete agreement with the west:
In autumn 2021, every Russian region adopted some form of compulsory vaccination. A year later, regions are now injecting citizens who have been called up for military service.
Just like with the regional vaccination decrees, enforcement and thoroughness will vary. But this is hardly reassuring.
This new form of mandatory vaccination is far more extreme than what Russia previously had. Pre-mobilization, mandatory vaccination was typically tied to employment status. Because of this, the Kremlin repeatedly claimed there was no “true” compulsory vaccination in Russia, since you could always quit your job.
Mobilized Russians face 10 years in prison if they try to evade military service. By extension, this means attempting to avoid mandatory vaccination could result in a decade behind bars.
In other words, Russia has just adopted one of the world’s strictest coercive injection policies.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5592218
https://rostov.tsargrad.tv/news/mobilizovannym-v-rostovskoj-oblasti-sdelajut-privivki-ot-koronavirusa_632583
Good to hear you and your family did not lose all memories, i know how hard that is.
Be strong and stay safe.
Per
Mantis Toboggan,
thank you for your measured comments. I largely agree. We are headed toward a massive global conflagration..
It is actually not a waste of energy — honest debate is useful and helps clarify and synthesize thoughts and stances. I may be as invested “heartwise” as most on this forum, but the positions I advanced are quite rational and objective, and based on metrics available on open source. I may actually understate, as we all largely infer. The scale of the catastrophe for NATO may be much more.
I am actually surprised by such obverse opinion! It does provide space for reasoned counterargument, but I’m starting to feel like a poked windmill. Regarding questioning the millennia-old tactic of classical “fight and retreat ‘Asian’ war of attrition,” here’s a primer on this type of warfare. None have mastered land war better than Russians waging it continuously for 1,000 years. We should not waste time advising them how to do it.
The era of massed frontal attack using heavy medieval chargers may have been satisfying, and may yet return in a few years, but is currently unwise..
As you highlighted regarding Syria, so it is in the Donbass… it is precisely “Russia ‘mopping up’ in a conflict supported and aided by a combination of 30 NATO countries.” This revelation will eventually sink in. Painful as it may be for the pride of westerners.
My POV is not based on myth regarding Russians or base desire. The underlying message holds. It needs to be countered with facts rather than resort to ad hominems, appeals to authority and other logical fallacies.
There is a clear ineluctable Reality I describe. Active and retired military experts from India, Africa, the West and Russia share these views — across entire spectrum among the honest. No one in Zone B would be lining up with Russia if it had been losing or at risk of losing, and thus putting their necks on the line against the vindictive Hegemon. What is it that 85% of humanity with common sense and basic information from the battlefront know that a few westerners do not? I get that the West is in bad shape and going to hell, but we need to look at the Ukraine dispassionately and not through morose eyes.
(1) Russia can easily defeat the Ukraine and any western combination within 1000 km of its borders. It simply has overwhelming logistical, land-armament and technical, doctrinal, historical, motivational and other advantages. These have been far from degraded or exhausted.
(2) Russia has deliberately held back. This simple fact has not registered with most in zone A, even supporters. Early on, it hoped to persuade the Ukrainian regime to a sensible negotiated settlement. It hoped to not kill brotherly neighbors being used as proxy by mutual enemies. It hoped to save its best forces for anticipated eventual showdown with the combined west. It respected the legal definitions of an SMO (not war) – which entail mere adjunct support to local militias liberating themselves. It hoped to concurrently secure its economy in the face of unprecedented aggression — requiring a measured rollout. It didn’t bother to counter the superior InfoWar domain of the West.. and so on. Do I agree with all this? Our opinion is irrelevant.. They are the ones fighting and dying. They shall conduct war as they best see fit. I do not sugar coat anything, but call it as I see it.
(3) As Russia clearly never went “all in” so far, how could they “wipe the floor with the Ukraine in a matter of weeks?” They were going to grind it from day one, that much was clear. How could they take Kiev, a city of millions, in the beginning with so little forces? Any experienced military scientist pointed out they were mere pining moves in order to divert focus from the real objective of securing the Donbass. And that was a slow process to save Russian civilians and infrastructure. The real issue is our false impressions, unreasoned expectations, and filtered perceptions, not the methodical and effective Russian way of fighting.
I do agree with you the West is being underestimated to a degree and has unknown reserves and capabilities. And that is why 90% of Russian military is in a holding pattern, and other allies haven’t entered the fray yet. All contingencies have been gamed for the decade+ preparation for this war. But as we should not overestimate Russian myth, so the West should not be mythologized and built up to the behemoth it used to be in prior eras. Above all the west has unlimited perfidy and BS-generation capacity. Regarding its true strength, we all suffer to a degree from distortions in the western hall of mirrors. Its degradation has been quite shocking. What dissolution is seen in its economy, society, infrastructure, ethics, spirituality and other spheres appears mirrored in its military and industrial warfare base.. the increasing contempt of the real current western conventional capabilities voiced by Martyanov and other military scientists does appear justified.
A dude from the Appalachias gave a well considered judgment “the empire of lies and death has launched the greatest global PSYOP ever.” We are all enveloped in it and victimized, without exception. We cannot ever forget this. If you live in the West, believe your lying eyes at own risk! If you have some knowledge of Scripture, remember even the great Prophet Moses was scared and amazed in the court of Pharoah at the level of witchcraft, deception and magic.. who are we today to assume most of us can handle a similarly evil environment?
Do not overestimate evil. Yes, they are cunning and full of passionate intensity. But they are stupid, guaranteed losers in the end. Always. But how many know history or have faith? The issue is the term of their rampage until put down. But most are meek and intimidated and go with the flow, and so evil persists longer than it should.
Many will dispute your “Russia and Europe is only the secondary show.” Europe is a nonentity. A used condom has more heft. It was defeated by the US when it established the EU and is merely another proxy to be bled now. Rather it is the Anglo-American component ON European battleground that is dominant in the Ukraine. By circumstance, this battleground appears the decisive main global show. There may not be a secondary show as events unfold. Or rather, all other fronts may be ignited simultaneously in their desperation of doubling down.
The West is as hollowed out as the Ukrainians. But the US remains possessed of unending streams of fodder (measured now in worth of # of shells), mesmerizing Propaganda, and prevents needed surrender at all costs. The two sides are also conventionally unequal, at least based on demonstrated capabilities to date, clearly favoring the Russians. So as you note, it will unfortunately escalate at some point soon.. losers always do.
We should not get hung up on “quick victories,” as that was never promised in advance. Time is not on the West’s side, another reason it was dragged on and kept on simmer several times.. However all the impatient should be shortly satisfied — apparently compromises were made in Samarkhand in mid-September agreeing to end this expeditiously. Current incorporation of the four new provinces formalizes the changed legal posture from an SMO to Counter-Terrorist Op (CTO) or frank war..
Do you understand what I try to convey? Those who monitor activity daily are 100x more gung-ho than me. ***I*** am the sober son! By every metric Russia could have wrapped this up already. Anyone who says otherwise is misinformed. It did not do so largely for political reasons discussed way above. There is no capabilities issue. The West is left with a nuclear gun. Period. Which as you say, it will use eventually, the last act of its miserable existence. So let’s not embarrass ourselves and quibble about the optimal way to rearrange deck chairs..
Thanks for your POV..
May the power of The Divine keep you and your family safe and secure in His Presence, Andrei. 🙏
Thankyou so much for all that you do and have done on the blog all of these years. In these times, where we, in ‘the collective West’ have sunk so low into a post-Truth world, it is so important for good mental health to be able to communicate with other like-minded souls who care about our lands, our customs, our traditions & our families.
Mighty blessings,