While Khan plays on a complex geopolitical chessboard, Chinese aid could be a financial lifeline as Islamabad faces off against deadly religious extremism
by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with The Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
It has been a breathless week, huddled in the shadow of the simmering, bubbling, politico-religious volcano that is Imran Khan’s Pakistan.
And this week’s multi-faceted developments may just signal seismic shifts in Pakistan’s internal and external relations for the foreseeable future.
Before moving on to bloodier matters, let’s start with the “Mr. Khan Goes to China” episode – essential for reviewing all aspects of what is enthusiastically described by both sides as the “all-weather strategic cooperative partnership”.
Xi’s financial lifeline for Khan?
Prime Minister Khan, leading a fresh government elected in July and facing a range colossal challenges, set the tone from the start. He did not mince words.
“Countries go in cycles, they have their high points, they have their low points,” he said. “Unfortunately, our country is going through a low point at the moment with two very big deficits, a fiscal deficit and a current account deficit. And so we, as I’ve said, have come to learn.”
Arguably few teachers beat Chinese President Xi Jinping, praised by Khan as a role model. “China’s phenomenal achievements are worth emulating,” Khan said. “No other country has tackled poverty and corruption the way China has tackled it.”
The lynchpin of the strategic partnership is inevitably the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship project of the New Silk Road, or Belt-and-Road Initiative (BRI). Before his stint as guest of honor of the First China International Import Expo in Shanghai, Khan met a crucial player in Beijing for CPEC financing: Jin Liquan, president of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
Right from the start, Pakistan’s new Planning Minister Makhdoom Bukhtiar was confident that Islamabad would not need to reschedule around $2.7 billion in Chinese loans due for repayment in 2018. Instead, what’s in the cards is an improved economic package centered on taking CPEC to the next level.
A financially stable Pakistan is absolutely crucial for the success of BRI. A Pakistani audit of projects approved by the previous Nawaz Sharif administration called for streamlining CPEC, not curtailing it. Now, Team Khan does not subscribe to the notion of CPEC as a debt trap.
With Saudi Arabia and China stepping in with cash, Islamabad may avoid becoming further indebted to the IMF and its trademark “strategic adjustments”- widely dreaded across the Global South for producing a toxic mix of austerity and inflation.
Pakistan juggles China, Iran, Saudi, Turkey
Pakistan is all about its prime geopolitical location, the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia.
For Beijing, Pakistan as a key BRI node mirrors its new role as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). As Khan has clearly identified, this interconnection can only turbo-charge Pakistan’s geo-economic position – under the institutional framework of SCO. The Xi-Khan partnership may actually center around an economic win-win for Pakistan and the SCO.
Of course, myriad challenges lie ahead.
Take for instance Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokesman Lu Kang having to clarify that “all the cooperation between China and Pakistan has nothing to do with territorial disputes.”
Kang was referring to the hoopla surrounding the fact that a Pakistani company launched a bus service from Lahore to Kashgar via Islamabad; essentially the northern CPEC route via the Karakoram Highway, which skirts Kashmir. China does not want any interference whatsoever in the ultra-volatile Kashmir dossier.
Saudi Arabia is also making some not-too-subtle moves. Islamabad’s official position is that Riyadh’s recent financial offer came with no strings attached. That’s unlikely to be the case; Saudi traditionally casts a long shadow over all matters Pakistani. “No strings” means Islamabad should keep closer to Riyadh, not Tehran.
The House of Saud – paralyzed by the fallout of the bloody Istanbul fiasco – will go no-holds-barred to prevent Islamabad from getting closer to Tehran. (Or Ankara, for that matter). A possibly emergent, long-term, game-changing Turkey-Iran-Pakistan alliance was the talk of the town – at least during the first part of this week of weeks.
That brings us to the crucial visitor Khan received in Islamabad before his trip to China: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Last month, 14 Iranian border guards were kidnapped by the Pakistan-based Jaish al-Adl Salafi-jihadi fanatics. Pakistan security forces have been helpless so far.
Khan and Zarif talked about that – but also talked about Khan’s offer to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia in trying to find a solution for the tragedy in Yemen. The fact is, a Tehran-Islamabad rapprochement is already a work in progress.
That is the sophisticated geo-political game Khan must play. Meanwhile at home, he has to get down and dirty as he gets to grips with violent domestic religious turmoil.
‘Go legal – or else…’
I’ve been in Islamabad since Monday – right on the lip of the volcano, and enjoying the privilege of being part of one of the most extraordinary geopolitical conferences in recent times, something that in the current polarizing dynamic could only happen in Asia, not the West. But that’s another story.
While I was parsing elaborate analyses of this geopolitical chessboard, reality intervened.
Or – perhaps – it was a graphic intimation that Pakistan may just be changing for the better.
Street blockades paralyzed key nodes of the nation because Aasia Bibi, a Christian woman laborer, in jail for nine years, was finally acquitted by the Supreme Court of spurious charges of blasphemy. There are less than 4 million Christians in Pakistan out of a total population of 197 million.
I was with a small group on the motorway to Peshawar, prior to taking a detour to Taxila – Alexander-the-Great land, where I planned further research on ancient Silk Roads – when suddenly we were halted.
A mullah was blaring his hate through a loudspeaker. A couple of his minions blocked all circulation.
Why the police would not dislodge this small group is the matter of all matters in Khan’s arguably new Pakistan. The highway standoff embodies the high-stakes grapple underway between the state and religion.
Back in Islamabad, as he led me around the campus of the National Defense University, Timoor Shah, a bright young man at the Center for Policy Studies, gave me a crash course on the nuances.
What a global audience should understand is this. On one side stand the state, the military and the judiciary. (Accusations continue to be hurled that Khan was privileged in the July elections by the military – the top institution in Pakistan – and an activist judiciary.) On the other side, stand fringe religious nuts and an opportunistic, discredited opposition.
The Tehreek-e-Labbaik (TLP), a minor extremist political party whose only platform is to punish blasphemy, has issued death threats against the three Supreme Court judges. Pakistan could do worse than import a strangle/bone-saw/dissolve-in-acid Saudi execution squad to deal with such groups.
It’s instructive to consider what the director general of the PR arm of the powerful intelligence service, ISI, Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor had to say: This is a legal matter and the Pakistan Army should not be dragged into it. Ghafoor also stressed, “We are close to winning the war against terrorism and our attention should not be diverted.”
Ghafoor told politico-religious parties protesting against the Supreme Court judgment – quite a few of which were firmly on the lunatic fringe – to go legal or else. Amid this, TLP chief Khadim Hussain Rizvi swears that that the Army has threatened to “destroy” his party.
The military sent a delegation, including ISI officials, to talk to the religious protesters. Ghafoor was careful to stress that the ISI is an intelligence department that reports to the prime minister.
In the end, the government caved in. Despite knowing that Aasia Bibi faces fundamentalist wrath and her only path to safety would be a one-way ticket out, they agreed to put her on something called the “Exit Control List.” Even that did not prevent TLP fanatics from threatening “a war if they sent Aasia Bibi out of the country.”
‘Taliban Godfather’ killed
As if all this were not toxic enough, on Friday evening Maulana Samiul Haq – the fabled “Godfather of the Taliban” – was stabbed to death in his house in Rawalpindi, Islamabad’s twin city.
Haq led the sprawling Darul Uloom Haqqania, a madrassa, or religious school, in Akhora Khattak, near Peshawar, founded in 1988. The madrassa graduated none other than Mullah Omar, as well as other Taliban notables.
Haq embodies a torrent of turbulence in modern Pakistani history – including his stints as senator during the Zia ul Haq and Nawaz Sharif administrations. He also tabled a notorious Sharia bill during Sharif’s last term.
But for me, the story was personal. In a tortuous way, Samiul Haq saved my life – courtesy of a letter of introduction he had signed after I visited his madrassa to follow a Talibanesque indoctrination in progress.
When, along with my photographer Jason Florio, we were arrested by the Taliban at a military base in Ghazni in the summer of 2000, we were only released from waiting six months to be tried as “spies” because of Samiul Haq’s letter.
This obviously pales when compared to the high-profile, principled move by the Pakistani Supreme Court to save Aasia Bibi from a death sentence.
But it could be the first salvo in a Khan-era Pakistani war against religious fundamentalism.
Unfortunately there is a huge fallacy in your thinking re Mr Khan. He is a fundamentalist at heart….his track record as a politician is a testament to this . Also he is a puppet PM…just follow the money to see who is pulling the strings.
The crazy fundamentalist are everywhere …and they don’t necessarily have beards !
His political party consist of all the judas of the other mainstream parties….when they realised that he had been pre appointed to lead Pakistan.
Pakistan is rampant with corruption and religious fanatics….and the army is guilty of both. Most countries have an army….Pakistan is a case where an army has a country to control.
Finally whoever gives the money to Pakistan….there will be strings attached. IMF, KSA …USA…or China all are raping the country so no sure why people still believe money is free !
We are heading in the direction of Iran pre 1979…..and once we tilt , mullahs backed by the army will impose sharia law and we will be living the hand maids tale scenario.
If you have any doubts plse review Mr Khans speeches and objectives …actions and the attire of his now third wife !!!
Imran is no fundamentalist, can’t imagine where that comes from.
Used to drink like a fish and chase(usually catch)anything in a skirt.
But even in those days he was always a Pakistani patriot.
The only confliction he has is in regards to his children by his first wife ,a Rothschild,I never liked her
myself.
I wish my friend the best of luck,he will need it.
I would just ask you to read his speeches…he is a hardcore fundamentalist. Saint Augustine was a sinner …before he became a saint . One extreme to another.
Have you seen him on his trip to Mecca ? Walking bare foot ..attempting to emulate the prophet Muhammad ?
He has clearly stated that he wishes to bring ‘ the laws and customs ‘ of Medina to Pakistan….not sure what more you need to understand the fellow ?
As minorities were deprived of their rights and murdered…he has remained silent. So hoping that I am wrong …but living in Pakistan , early indications are not encouraging.
[Khan] is a hardcore fundamentalist
That smells like propaganda. Khan may not have offended the fundamentalists, but that is very different from saying that he’s a fundamentalist himself.
As minorities were deprived of their rights and murdered…he has remained silent.
You expect Khan to fix a whole host of problems instantly, problems that have been festering for generations?
Regarding events a few years ago when the ahmadia community members were killed …a few people spoke out but there was a deafening silence from Mr Khan. Recently in the case of The young Christian women accused of blasphemy…he has side stepped the issue and left the decision to the Supreme Court. He had the opportunity to step up and speak out against the mullahs and yet again has failed. The government bowed to all the demands of the mullahs incl apology and cash compensation.
Again I don’t have much expectations and do t expect him to fix the country’s problems in matter of weeks but evidence from the past few years does not instil confidence.
But the best way to judge politicians is to create ‘stop losses ‘….that is at some point there must be a criteria whereby one can say a person has betrayed your confidence or has fulfilled his promises and committements.
So maybe we can discuss the matter in a time frame suitable to you on his progress ?
You have a very superficial knowledge of Pakistan, and act as it you were a expert or native here. Tell us something we have not read from newspaper!
Talking about not standing up for minorities, no one can beat records of Modi under whom, 1000 Muslim was killed, and was barred from entry into US as results. Not long ago, while African students were beaten and killed in suburb of Delhi, Modi did not utter a word. When Muslims were killed for moving cows, Modi did not utter s word. A few days ago, there was a Girl, 13, beheaded with a HOOK in India for ‘refusing to have sex with her neighbor from a higher caste’, we still not heard from Modi.
The difference is Pakistan is progressing as shown by the SC ruling, and hanging rapists. India are letting rapist getting away and building $420 MILLION statue.
My comments were directed at Imran Khan and Pakistan. How is bringing in Modi’s track record on Muslims and minorities in India in any way absolve Khan or Pakistan ????
I speak as one of those who is considered a minority so not sure how my comments or experience is superficial ?
Also plse show me if my comments / views are shared in the newspapers in Pakistan ?
I am not an ‘expert’ but I do live in Pakistan…am a Pakistani and also am a minority ! You on the other hand have simply dismissed my points without any facts or arguments….
So far your argument still do not make Mr Khan a fundamentalist.
In fact, you did not mention that Mr. Khan appointed an Ahmadi economic adviser when he taking over the office.
Of cause he bowed to strong pressure canceled appointment, it does not make him a fundamentalist, but some one honestly wants to make things better for all community.
The environment for such appointment is not there a few month ago. A new government had to pick his battles, he (and SC) pick the Asian Bibi case, and they are winning. No one stop him to reappoint the Ahmadi economic adviser later when he has made more progress at other front and has firmer standing.
If you were an Ahmadi, you would have seen the progress being made in the country than state the opposite, and calling Mr Khan fundamentalist.
J, despite what you say about “Imran has to pick his battles”, the immediate effect of cancelling the appointment of hat economist is that the fundamentalists score a point and gain momentum.
I am an Indian living i India.You are absolutely right about Modi and the revolting happenings In India under his rule. Our only hope is that he has been losing all bye-elections badly. He could lose all the State assembly elections due this month and the next in Rajasthan/Madhya Pradesh/Chhattisgarh/Mizoram. The opposition parties are allying with each other . His Rafale deal siphoning USD 5 billion to a crony cpitalist, Ambani, at the expense of a govt aircraft company gets exposed more and more each day. His unscrupulous meddling with key institutions like the central bank and the major investigative agency, CBI, is also being resisted. Judicial system in India through the Supreme Court is also asserting itself . Modi will find the opposition alliances in the key states unbeatable. He is trying to whip up communalism. That card may also flop as it has diminishing returns especially when people can see that you are doing it just before elections.
Hope is of his defeat in the next election in May 2019.
I do not think he is fundamentalist regardless his wife’s attire.
He is no fundamentalist and is a patriot. Critics like above are interested in spreading only propaganda. Ask yourself this: what is the alternative to Imran? Hah!
Pakistan is in a terrible state. It was not brought here by Imran Khan. It will not move on from this state by maintaining the status quo which is presumably what the poster above wants. It does not need to follow the Western model either.
The Sportsman will handle it, hopefully.
We have liberals in pakistan. Their latest litmus test for judging a leader: if a leader and military get along well (which should be expected in every country), the leader must be a puppet. That is where all the ‘puppet’ and ‘pre-selected’ talk comes from.
Actually when the Supreme Court only goes after the Shariffs for corruption and not the other 300 plus names on the Panama papers it’s a little naive to believe it is a random occurrence. And recently one SC judge has publicly stated that the Chief Justice hands daily reports to the Army chief on what they are doing and what needs to be done…when the army goes after one opponent at a time to rid of Mr khan’s rivals it certainly makes one suspicious ! mr sharif was incarcerated with the blessing of the army.
Also if Mr Khan’s agenda is to root out corruption in the country…he doesn’t have to look too far …the army is the main culprit. Yet there is a deafening silence….
And if you observe each of his visits within the country …he is accompanied by several army high ranking officials. And yet it is claimed we have a civilian government …..
If Imran Khan is to succeed he will have to demonstrate political deftness and the ability to strategically navigate between the various geo-political currents that run across the region.
He has so far visited Saudi Arabia and now he is off to China.
Before he visits Washington it is advisable that he first pay a visit to Tehran.
Iran is a neighbor of Pakistan and both countries stand to achieve a lot, if they work together.
Reviving the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline project would be good way to start things off – Iran has already completed its part of the pipeline, but successive Pakistani adminstrations have allowed Washington to scare them off the project, despite the huge benefits that energy-starved Pakistan stands to gain from it.
Pakistan needs to also take concrete measures to prevent militants from using the Pakistani side of the border to stage raids into Iran, because Tehran is becoming increasingly furustrated with the frequency of these raids, and could opt for some form of incursion into Pakistan to stop it, if Islamabad fails to act.
Imran must therefore, clearly demonstrate that he will not allow Riyadh or Washington to dictate the terms of Pakistan’s relationship with Iran.
As for Washington, Imran Khan should be in no haste to visit.
America is an empire in decline, despite the loud noise that it gives off.
The momentum is clearly with the East, so Khan should prioritize visits to these capitals before he looks to the West.
Despite Russia’s recent decision to sell S-400s to arch enemy India, Khan should also visit Moscow to meet with Putin.
Pakistan needs Russia’s help in stabilizing the situation in neighboring Afghanistan, thereby removing the justification for US troop presence.
A visit to Malaysia to meet with Mahathir wont hurt either.
If when he is through with these visits he then decides that he wants to visit Washington to see the Martin Luther King Monument, and while there he squeezes in 5 minutes for Trump, then no one could blame him.
Selah
I wish he would do everything you have just said….but the sad reality is that foreign policy is in the hands of the army and they are the lap dogs of the US establishment. The payoffs are too large to allow any moves not approved by the US. The recent KSA ‘donation’ to Pakistan has coincidentally led to Pak media speaking of the possibility of acknowledging the existence of Israel and rumours are rampant of an Israeli plane landing in Islamabad for several hours with the Israeli PM meeting Pak officials. Rumours are being denier but original articles came fromHareetz newspaper.and not denied by Israli officials….
Khan has been now saying for weeks that Pakistan will defend KSA against all enemies….which implies Iran .
Remember Pakistani soldiers have killed as many Palestinians as Israelies have in the past. They will have no issue in turning agst their’ Muslim’ brothers if the price is right. And as we speak they are being paid…..
I wonder if that Madrassa headed by the Godfather of the Taliban was funded with Saudi money?
In these times, trying to stomp down Islamic fundamentalism usually seems to include stomping a few Saudi fingers. That Chinese funding might allow a bit of freedom from Saudi strings which in turn might permit a bit of stomping.