Urgent Statement/Interview by Igor Strelkov:
“Immediate and Widescale Assistance from Russia is Needed”
source: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1s25glbby Alexander Kots and Dmitry Steshin
translated into English by Gleb Bazov
original: http://m.kp.ru/daily/26243.5/3124972/
video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQWwdAyyMJs
The Commander in Chief of the DPR militia believes that, if Moscow does not intervene, the self-defence units will be unable to withstand [the onslaught] of the Ukrainian army.
The Commander in Chief of the Donetsk People’s Republic’s militia told us about the massive artillery shelling of the residential neighbourhoods of Kramatorsk and offered an unpromising prognosis.
– Right now you are hearing explosions, the enemy is shelling the outskirts of Slavyansk and the city of Kramatorsk with several batteries of heavy howitzer artillery. The massive strikes are directed exclusively at the residential neighbourhoods and industrial complexes. While Slavyansk has, by now, become accustomed to constant, unending, daily, and nightly artillery strikes, in Kramatorsk there is now a state of panic. For the first time, apartment buildings and private houses there have been hit with heavy ammunitions. There are fires, explosions, a multitude of dead and wounded. This is being done to show all the cities of Donbass exactly what will happen to them in the future. They have [nearly] obliterated Slavyansk. Almost half the city’s population has fled to Russia. Now they will obliterate Kramatorsk, and Kramatorsk is larger than Slavyansk. We will end up with another several tens of thousands of refugees, the major part of which will end up in Russia. As far as I am aware, Russia is entirely unready to receive tens, hundreds thousands, and then millions of refugees. After Kramatorsk will follow Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka, Gorlovka, Makeevka, Donetsk, Lugansk, and then – everywhere else. We can see [perfectly well] how the Ukrainian army acts. They do not strike at the positions of the militia, [they strike] at the infrastructure. They promise to grant passage to the repair brigades, and then they shoot at them. They claim that we hit our own schools and water-purification facilities. As if we do it all, like terrorists, while they have nothing to do [with this destruction].
A brief prognosis. The enemy has transferred its main infantry and tank forces to the north of the Lugansk oblast and to the south of the Donetsk [oblast]. Each day they advance by 10-15 kilometres, methodically cutting off the “rebellious” regions from the border with Russia. Cutting [us] off from any and all help. [Cutting us off] from arms and ammunitions, which, hypothetically, could someday be supplied, from food and medicines. I can assure you that, if Russia does not take immediate steps, they will achieve success.
Even the several thousand militia, which are now concentrated along the border, armed with several tanks, a few artillery pieces, and perhaps even a large number of machine guns and grenade launchers, will be unable to withstand for a long time the aviation, artillery, and the multitude of tanks. The ration of tanks can be estimated at 1 to 500, of APCs – 1 to 300, and of artillery – 1 to 800. There is no point to even mention the aviation. A week, two, three, maybe even a month, will pass and the most battle-ready detachments of the militia will be bled dry and, sooner or later, will be routed and eliminated. This, how the enemy is acting, we have observed in Mariupol. They surrounded the city, blocked it with checkpoints, using their equipment, and cut it off from any possibility of help. After that, their punitive units entered. These special units, composed of the so-called volunteers, who, in reality, are mercenaries, the Azov, Donbass and other [such battalions]. Once done, they clean-up the city of the few militia there and move on to the next city. And, meanwhile, a garrison is moved into this city, which takes up key positions, routes all the “malcontents,” and places them in filtration camps. … That is what awaits us.
Now let’s talk about the social debate, where two alternatives are offered: a full-scale war and non-interference in the affairs of Novorossiya. What this non-interference represents is – inculcation into the Russian society of a belief that the local Russians, by themselves and without Russia’s help, will be able to defend Novorossiya, repel the enemy’s onslaught and hold for as long as may be necessary. So as to give Russia time to make some kind of decision. The second alternative is a belief that the commencement of war is not in Russia’s interest, that it will lead to serious economic consequences. I can say this: the war that is, even now, already ongoing, will end for Russia disastrously in an economic sense. Russia will suffer economically from this war because it did not intervene in time, did not introduce peacekeeping forces. [Russia] could have occupied the entire Donetsk and Lugansk regions when they rose up against the adversary. It could have been done painlessly right after the referenda. But Russia did not [intervene] and from that moment on we started to lose ground.
As it now stands, a peacekeeping intervention is impossible without engaging in a large-scale war, without aviation strikes, without artillery fire, without an incursion with tanks, without a partial mobilization of the Russian army. I will tell you honestly, we are biding time, we are mobilizing our paltry resources and people. But we cannot catch up to the enemy. Some think that the Ukrainian army will fall apart, should you only spit at it. It will fall apart once it meets a counterpart able to match it at least part-way. But what we have here is not even a fight between David and Goliath, it’s [an encounter] between an elephant and an ant. An ant can cause lots of pain biting an elephant. But even an old and sick elephant will crush an ant. Even if its legs buckle, the elephant will crush it with its sheer mass. It should not be forgotten that the enemy receives economic, financial and military aid from all of Europe and the United States. The hryvna floats after two month of war not because it’s a stable currency. This is just ridiculous. How could anyone think that we can stand our ground [when our enemy receives] such massive support? Yes, we can hold Slavyansk a month, maybe a month and a half, but sooner or later they will still eliminate us. We cannot transfer our garrison to another city without abandoning this territory. We can organize five Slavyansks, which will be encircled and eliminated, together with their populations. There is only one alternative to war or complete abandonment of Novorossiya – immediate de facto recognition of Novorossiya and Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and the provision of real, large-scale and urgent military assistance to them. I am addressing Russia as a Commander in Chief of the Donetsk People’s Republic’s militia and as a patriot of Russia and the Russian people. You can take it as a address from the name of [the entire] Donetsk militia.
Now, as for the tactical situation report. At this time, there are five howitzer batteries of the enemy near Slavyansk. They are comprised of twenty full-fledged heavy artillery pieces, with calibers ranging from 122 mm and larger. Four to five mortar batteries, with calibers 120 mm and 80 mm. The enemy has fortified its positions well, and its infantry numbers exceed ours. Furthermore, the enemy forces at each of its checkpoints equal our garrisons in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk combined. And I mean our entire garrisons. I am not even raising the equipment’s functional state. We have not even one tank. The enemy has them at each checkpoint. There are six tanks at their checkpoint near the turn onto Krasniy Liman. If I were to send the militia to assault this checkpoint, they would be hit with mortar fire in open field before even getting there. And then, from up high, the [enemy] aviation would bomb them, then the howitzer fire, and then the tanks would crush them. And what we’ll get is [a repetition of the battle] at the Donetsk airport, except with even higher casualties. When the militia, bled dry, would retreat to their starting positions, they would have no means not only to advance, but also to defend. And this breakdown is the same on every front. We can bite the enemy, we can attack from the flanks, we can operate in sabotage-intelligence groups and destroy 1-2 armoured elements a day. All made possible solely by the heroism of the fighters, who can penetrate into the enemy’s deep rear and hit him point-blank. But heroism alone, armed with light arms, grenade launchers and several mortars, cannot change the balance of the battle. We can only defend. Unfortunately, the enemy has superiority over us on every section of the battlefield. There are rumours that we have armoured vehicles, tanks. Never are there more lies than during war and fishing. I know that Alexander Mozgovoi conducted a good operation, seized some trophies, destroyed a few others. But all this is peanuts. The enemy can replace any number of destroyed or seized equipment from the endless Soviet reserves. And we don’t even have a secure rear for repairing armoured elements, we have no spare parts or supllies. One APC cannot stand against 20-30. And even the three old, aged tanks, which were, with great difficulty, restored in Gorlovka, even these three tanks cannot match thirty. Or, rather, sixty, ninety tanks. Ukrainian tanks can be counted in the hundreds. We won’t even speak about the Su-25 flying overhead – we do shoot them down, from time to time, but they maintain full superiority in the air.
——-
Urgent Appeal from Igor Strelkov, June 16, 2014
source: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1s25fbk
Translated From Russian
Original: http://summer56.livejournal.com/155186.html
The enemy is engaged in massive bombardment of Kramatorsk, using howitzers at the Karachun Mount and in the vicinity of water purifications facilities between Slavyansk and Kramatorsk (they have a stronghold there).
There are numerous casualties and fires in the city. They are bombarding both the industrial sector and the residential neighbourhoods. The population is in a state of panic – [to date,] Kramatorsk had not experienced such massive artillery shelling.
What is more, militia objects have been spared – the strikes are not against them. Why, you ask? The answer is elementary – in order to force tens of thousands of refugees to flood into Russia. Genocide and ethnic cleansing in their purest form.
I have decided to offer up to universal review a text from my personal correspondence (as appropriately amended). I ask that you distribute it. It is no longer possible to keep silent, hoping that someone “on the mainland” “comes to his senses.”
As I have become accustomed to anticipate events several steps ahead, I am in a state of utter “prostration.” The observable destruction of the economy and the population I anticipated even a month and a half ago, and, in order to avoid it, called then for a peacekeeping intervention.
It is now too late – peacekeepers will not be able to intervene without a battle. Now I am calling for the provision of IMMEDIATE AND WIDESCALE MILITARY ASSISTANCE. But no assistance has come.
In a week or two (and possibly earlier) a substantial part of the military detachments of DPR and LPR may be completely routed. The reason is the insurmountable ratio in heavy weaponry …
And when Donetsk and Lugansk are completely blocked and surrounded, like Slavyansk, the following question will rear its head – either Russia will:
1) commit to intervention with full force (an intervention the Ukies are openly provoking); or,
2) completely abandon Novorossiya (a possibility [the Ukies] are dearly hoping for).
And I am not at all sure that this dilemma will be resolved via the first option. More likely than not, it will be the opposite.
We can burn down even a hundredd APCs and kill even five thousand troops, but the overall balance of forces will hardly change. Well, for example, the [manpower] ratio will become 1 to 14 instead of 1 to 15 …
Every day we are forced to relinquish another large settlement – we have neither the men nor the guns to defend them. At the same time, we have no ability to retake any of them – because we have nothing to match the Ukie’s heavy weaponry. All we can do is engage them in defence more or less successfully.
So, what reason is there for optimism? From our own minor successes? They are purely tactical. And, meanwhile, we have long ago started losing the strategic engagement.
I see open sabotage in the approach taken by the Russian officials at the highest-level in relation to Novorossiya. It shows in everything. I dare say that [this sabotage] is fully conscious. Otherwise, there is no explanation for the fact that DPR and LPR have yet to be recognized even de facto and that they receive no supplies of such badly needed weapons and equipment.
Yes, Putin has effectively disavowed (and I wonder – at whose suggestion?) the pledges of standing ready to protect the Russian civilian population of Donbass. NO ALTERNATIVE WHATSOEVER HAS BEEN PROPOSED. If there is no military aid – the military defeat of DPR and LPR is inevitable.
Whether [this defeat] comes a week earlier or a month later does not matter. The enemy will cut us off from the border and will methodically suffocate us, “cleansing” the territory in the process and, in one go, forcing out into Russia a million or two of utterly deprived and embittered refugees (I trust the consequences for the economy and the social sphere are obvious).
And then, groups of “grateful oligarchs” will come to Putin with sorrowful faces and offer as their spokesperson the “great schemer” Surkov, who will explain, in a quiet and insinuating voice, that: “We did everything that we could, but these … these good-for-nothing Donetsk bandits themselves failed it all themselves, and we can give them no help without risking nuclear war … They punished themselves … It is not worth it to take a risk … We need to persevere … We will make everything right in time … It is possible to negotiate with Poroshenko … This is a tactical retreat … We are not ready to go to war … After all, we took Crimea, didn’t we? …” and so on and suchlike.
What this will mean for our company – I know already. Most of us will perish, but that is not the issue – this uprising and all the victims will be in vain, and the “Russian Spring” will be eliminated at the root by the “Ukrainian Freeze.”
And the next war, the war that we will not witness, will be on Russia’s territory – right after the “Moscow Maidan,” of course …
Ukraine to secure its borders with Russia by building a wall.
Ukraine unilaterally produce demarcate the border with Russia and will begin construction of protective structures along it. This decision was made on Monday, the Council of National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), chaired by President Poroshenko. “Instructed the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine to organize unilateral demarcation of the Russian-Ukrainian border, ensure its proper engineering arrangement in accordance with today’s threats to national security,” – said after the council meeting, his secretary Andrew Paruby, television channel TSN.
http://top.rbc.ru/politics/16/06/2014/930543.shtml
http://lenta.ru/news/2014/06/16/snbo/
http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/06/16/7029251/
What is the Russian media saying about this?
Rhe dice was cast last saturday.
Maybe now that the gas issue is for the moment ‘over’,the delivery from Gazprom being stopped.Russia has no more excuse like’we wait a bit to see if the ukies pay their bills’…They will not pay any dollar(they do not have any money anyway.)This will be settled in Stockholm but it is not going to happen very soon.Of course if Russia intervenes the Nuland clique will be opening a bottle of champagne,they will win (except Crimea).But if Putin does not intervene it will also be a ‘no win’ solution as he will be the next target in a few months or years in Moscow.He will loose his popularity very fast at home,the Ukies of course will insist in their insane propaganda that’Putin is weak’,he is ‘a traitor’to his own people etc…
Once again if he wants a last chance to do so,it will have to decide very quick as in July we will have the NATO Drills which will take place in UA.
I don’t see these NATO troops ever leave Ukraine it will become an unlimited drill…Vlad you just have a few days left to make the ‘right’ move..or not.
“After Kramatorsk will follow Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka, Gorlovka, Makeevka, Donetsk, Lugansk, and then – everywhere else.”
Can Strelkov possibly give *more* precise instructions to the enemy on what to do? The whole thing is oddly specific, has a lot of numbers, why would the general population need to know quite so many details?
So Strelkov, who is essentially DPR’s Defense Minister, is accusing Russia of not doing what he’s supposed to have been doing all along instead of getting himself blockaded in Slavyansk. Last I checked, Defense Ministers are supposed to organize chains of supply and command, organize flow of reinforcements and at least rudimentary training facilities.
Instead, Strelkov took several hundred fighters and charged off to Slavyansk, whence he issues operational briefings and (often) contradictory appeals. If memory serves, he first complained about “plenty of weapons but no volunteers”. Then it was “plenty of volunteers but no weapons”. Now it’s lack of tanks and artillery. I suppose next week he will accuse Moscow for his lack of tactical nukes.
To be sure, there’s already talk of how this latest appeal is a part of a “grander plan” and he’s engaged in some massive disinformation campaign. Perhaps. There is, however, one major problem with how he does it: his accusations of Moscow give all anti-Putin boys a hard-on. Notice how he implies that lack of Moscow’s support will result in a Maidan there? Russian Nats and Commie freaks are lapping it up – it empowers them. They’ve found their champion. And he cannot be unaware of this.
Yes, I believe he’s playing his own game, and it has nothing to do with defending Slavyansk or its people. If anything, this latest “appeal” – and the frenzied reaction from the Russian anti-Putin crowd it caused – are pointing to that. Add to it the fact that the DPR leadership has not supported his statements (in fact, it did rather the opposite) and this situation acquires a very unpleasant flavor.
BOPOH
BOPOH,
Omigosh.
Omigosh.
Do you really think so?
Omigosh.
That would make him as big a — oh, I can’t even think of the word, fake/fraud/charlatan — but wayy, way worse — as Obama. Oh please, no — enough people have died, let him at least be making an honest effort! o o o
@Nora: I don’t know if Strelkov is manic-depressive or not, but we certainly should stay away from swinging from one extreme to another. At the very least we should take everything anybody says – including Strelkov, Juan, Putin, or myself – in the context of what else we know and try go get a full picture. Personally, I do understand Strelkov’s frustration at seeing his man die in battle with an inferior enemy who only wins by his vastly superior number of human cannon-fodder and hardware. Also, and this is subjective but I have seen that in the past – it looks to me like he has not slept in a long while. Finally, for all his qualities the man clearly has a record of making contradictory or unsubstantiated statements. So let us listen to what he has to say, then take a deep breath, and use our own brains to see how much weight we want to give to his latest statement.
I am trying to find out what is going on and I have asked Juan to do likewise. Let’s see what tomorrow brings, ok?
Kind regards,
The Saker
Thank you, Saker!
I tend to be a fairly level-headed type but the thought that this guy might not be on the up-and-up, given all that seemingly depends on him, is apparently making a manic-depressive out of me! :~)
Those poor, poor people — we just keep doing it and doing it and doing it, to utterly innocent people just trying to live their lives. People everywhere, just trying to live their lives, killed, maimed, widowed, orphaned — for what? For what? So some psychopathic jerks sitting at their desks or meeting in fancy restaurants can rub their fingers together in glee?
I need to go pet one of my dogs or cats until my eyes stop burning or something.
Yes, Strelkov is definitely sleep-deprived.
It is not clear, if the Ukies have moved their forced and the main direction of attack from Slavyansk to taking control of the border, what is the point of Strelkov staying in Slavyansk, or leaving too many men there? If they are in fact still there, that we do not know for sure.
Nora:
I tend to be a fairly level-headed type but the thought that this guy might not be on the up-and-up, given all that seemingly depends on him
Why do you think all depends on one man – Strelkov? Wouldn’t that be a very foolish plan if it was true?
Do you notice how Strelkov sucks up all the oxygen in the media room (and all the Ukie artillery), but we hear next to nothing of Valery Bolotv’s men in Lugansk, or what the Vostok Batallion has been up to in Donetsk? Think a little about that. The Ukies certainly haven’t.
Remember from history what was going on while there was monmanical focus by Gen. Paulus and Hitler on capturing Stalingrad?
Someone has to be the nail to keep the hammer focused on one small place. I don’t want to say more, its so obvious, but its wrong to give any hints to the enemy.
I think it makes sense what Strelkov says. It is impossible to overcome a resistance movement without ethnic cleansing, because the local population is the main source for new fighters. Thats the purpose of shelling civilian areas, to dry up the source of new fighters. The shellings also destroy the operational base and deprive the resistance of ressoures.
With military assistance from the US/NATO, the ukrainian army will have destroyed every major city in Novorussia at one point.
My hope is that if Russia does not step its deliveries of military supplies, or does not intervene with limited strikes or an outright invasion, that it will at least manage to strangle Kiev economically in time.
This could lead to greater recruitment numbers for the resistance, which could change the manpower ratio. It would propably increase the defection rate and it will also exagarate the internal contradictions within the government structures.
The US knows that. Thats why they want to apply sanctions against Russia in some weeks, if the situations does not stabilize.
In the short term, the uprising in Iraq maybe a godsend for Russia. If the US gets bogged down militarily in Iraq, Russia would get a free hand in Ukraine and room to maneuver.
I also think that the US is moving closer and closer to “imperial overstretch”.
Ukraine+Iraq+Iran+Afghanistan+China+disintigrating Europe = imperial overstretch.
I read Strelkovs message and suffer with him.
In Europe in the past, we fought for the Lord, the King/Tzar and the people. For the culture. Today, that idea is polluted with extreme 19th century nationalism, which excludes a part of the population. It is also polluted by the love of money and other rather new ideologies. Polluted by big power politics and bad media reporting. Polluted by degenerate influence on all fronts, including anti-Christianity.
I love my country. It is a lot like Russia, more than you think, though we have fought several wars over the centuries. In this conflict, my heart is with the Russian-speakers in the East.
MSM in my country is as bad as in the US, but, interestingly, some of the most important nationalist sites in my country say what I say. Those who say they love their country are not all of the same kind. This conflict in the North goes back to the 1930s. I think the British will understand me. They experienced the same conflict. Very different kinds of patriotism. Also the French and today many Germans and other continentals. Germany is the only EU country that can make a difference in this dangerous situation, judging from what I read in German media. French intellectuals are good analysts, as they always are(!), and I put my hope in them, too. I have them in high regard and I understand the language.
Why is it important to explain my position? Because a Swedish nut fights for Kiev. Because some politicians in the North, Carl Bildt and Rasmussen in particular, are ignorant and dangerous politicians. Because the good people of Finland and Sweden is not responsible for the politics of the EU, the USA or NATO.
14 years ago, I spent a couple of weeks in Jaroslavl and saw a city that reminded me of the 1950s in my country. Calm, peaceful, civilized. I do understand Alexander Nevski. He left a great heritage. In his time, half of my country was orthodox. There are indications, no proofs, that the situation was partly the same on the British Isles. Our common history was rewritten a long time ago.
Dear American friends. I am not sure this makes any sense to you. Probably also not to some good commentators from the Middle East. This message is primarily directed at Russian-speakers, so that they remember the common heritage of the North and disregard some madmen, who claim to speak for it. In the North, we are brothers. It is not Ruski Narodna [Russian people] against everybody else. It is not about a new Sovjetski Sarjouz [Sovjet union] against Western Europe. Instead, see our common roots. Strange politicians like Carl Bildt, ni vaschna [not important].
Strelkov and the suffering people of Eastern Ukraine have more spiritual support than they know. I am with them in my prayers. Many more are with them than with the enemy, as is said in the Bible.
Friends of Novorossiya,
I will say it again here. Donbass needs civilian volunteers, thousands and thousands of them, passing out fliers door to door or putting them on windshields, exhorting the support of the people and collecting donations. The fliers should talk to the citizens, telling them what they need to do to defend their cities and land, and what is at stake if they don’t.
Thanks you, Saker, for publishing Strelkov’s appeal.
The name of Strelkov’s latest appeal and assessment:
Operation Rope a Dope.
Andrew:
Several points…
1) The argument that Strelkov serves as decoy for the junta forces has certain unpleasant pitfalls in it. For one, it assumes that he was willing to play that role, whereas that may not have been the case. Secondly, it assumes that someone in the PDR leadership was willing to turn a city of over 100K inhabitants into a “Stalingrad”, effectively sacrificing the locals for some grander plan’s sake – like building up the Lugansk and Donetsk contingents. This would be militarily sound, but from the moral standpoint it puts those making such a decision right down there with the junta boys. And makes Strelkov into something else than a knight in a shining armor entirely.
2) This is not the first time Strelkov engages in hysterics when faced with something he apparently did not expect. His rant about the locals not joining is a good example. The thing is not, however, that he expected them to join and they didn’t. It’s that he never thought the locals would become a factor beyond being the mass behind the referendum. When it became necessary to enlist their support, he couldn’t, and became frustrated. Whatever the reason, he clearly was NOT planning to stay in Slavyansk facing off half the Ukie army. For God’s sake, he never formed any coherent plan for defense of the local population save suggesting that they just “evacuate”. How they were to do it was not elaborated upon.
3) We hear A LOT about what the men in Lugansk or Donetsk are doing. For instance, the “Vostok” battalion was nearly wiped out in two separate incidents. At first, it was ambushed while en route to the Donetsk airport. It suffered at least 40+ dead. The ambush was so well coordinated it led some of its members to conclude that they have been set up by someone inside the DPR. Then several days later it was again ambushed while trying to take over a border guards post. Several more dead there.
The Lugansk militia has, on the other hand, been acting far more successfully and coherently, and have blockaded some 1500 – 2000 Ukie troops in the Lugansk area, while taking over several smaller garrisons. In fact, if I’m not mistaken, they managed to shoot down two SU-25’s today.
So you see, there’s quite a bit going on outside Slavyansk, and at least in Lugansk it’s not going badly at all. Yet here comes Strelkov, shouting treason and accusing Moscow of not supporting… That’s right. Supporting HIM.
More…
Cont’d…
Now to the Why of it, as I came to see it.
My opinion is that initially, no one in the DPR leadership had any definitive plan of how to proceed past the referendum. It was assumed by all – including Strelkov – that all they had to do was to create conditions similar to those in Crimea and the Russians would just take over. This is why they never went beyond taking over local administration buildings initially. And Slavyansk was the showpiece. There was something that you might have not noticed, but which got me puzzled at first – up until the first attack on Slavyansk by Ukie forces, no one there bothered to erect any real roadblocks or barricades. They did not believe those would be necessary, and in good Ukrainian fashion didn’t bother to think of alternatives – like Russia NOT moving in.
But it didn’t, and Strelkov was left stuck in Slavyansk while things went ahead without him in other parts of the Southeast. What truly burns him is that instead of a victorious hero he’s now the decoy, and is left out in the cold while all kinds of successes are being achieved elsewhere. Yes, I do believe he’s vain. He sees himself as the White Officer, the Saviour of Russia, but instead of saving Russia he’s stuck in one place with nowhere to go. He’s been betrayed!
Now understand this. Strelkov belongs to the generation of Russians who saw USSR fall apart and die. Some never got over it. Their method of living with the trauma has been to accuse everyone of treason, especially those in power. This has some powerful parallels to the feelings of betrayal felt by the former Imperial officers in the Civil War of 1917-20, and Strelkov is much into that time period (he’s a historian and an avid military reconstructor). But his distrust goes beyond, say, Gorbachov, and applies to all those currently in power too. He’s published some pretty virulent anti-Putin articles in the early 2000’s, and they were all steeped in the “doom and gloom” variety of “we’ve been betrayed” narrative.
All this time he was travelling from flashpoint to flashpoint. He was in Chechnya. Described is as a Russian failure. He was in Transnistria. That he also called a Russian failure. In fact, he only went quiet after it turned out that neither one was a failure – and, in fact, were rather the opposite.
And then – wham! The Crimea happens! And he gets wings, and flies over to Novorossiya, where the Russians are rising up from a hundred years of oppression!
And ends up blockaded in Slavyansk.
Bummer.
BOPOH
Strelkov is looking at the campaign through a battlefield looking glass. He is restricted in movement, probably has Intel that is not too dependable, hears and sees only the worst, is under siege from blistering artillery, has had to be out of sight several times in the last month, has a price on his head, is in the crosshairs of dozens of contracted snipers from all over the world, and is a passionate man with a warrior heart.
Putin and the Generals in Moscow trained all spring to deal with large battlefield operations. They know the existential threat from NATO and the Hegemon.
Now look at how prepared Putin was for Crimea. That was flawless because he had prepared for it. He anticipated it and was ready.
He also understood the East. He has his men in place. They are the face of the movement, militia and political organization.
Somewhere in the forests and haze are Green Men who will ensure no final collapse. Also, in the cities, there are FSB men.
Target lists are made. Key locations are on maps, some to be taken, others to be destroyed.
If Strelkov had five times as many men, he would have more targets for the artillery to hit. He says it himself that he needs big weapons. What he needs is an air force or very large battlefield artillery. He will never get these.
What he will get is a deceptive strategic response timed to neutralize his enemy.
It has to come at optimum geopolitical time. It has to split the European objections.
Putin will spit in the face of NATO and the US, but he needs to split the EU. Merkel is the key and she is a political realist. Ukraine is a basket case that will drag down the EU. And NATO will never get to take her. Absolutely never.
The UN may be where the case is made this month. Photo evidence of ethnic cleansing, war crimes with white phosphorus, attacking civilian targets, mass graves, Odessa, Lugansk, snipers killing civilians in Mariupol, killing wounded in hospitals, etc.
And if the Russian attack is brief, highly targeted and proportionate, it could even be from the air as well as a massive roundup of Right Sector units, and then the capitulation of Ukraine units.
Russian military and Intel can do this.
And they will.
East Ukraine cannot be lost. The border cannot have a wall, Kiev cannot remain.
And Putin wants Odessa. Remember that goal. We have not heard the last from or about Odessa.
Cheer up. Believe in Putin, the future, the power of Russian religion, the bravery and courage of Russian men, women and children wherever they live.
You win the war you don’t fight. Putin wants to strike with only a very small blow (like in a dojo).
You can slay a giant with a properly timed strike.
Maybe Strelkov and his army should change tactics completely and perform only asymmetrical warfare being ON THE MOVE at ALL TIME and in VERY SMALL UNITS. They should do AMBUSHES or HITS and RUNS. Fight like the PARTISANS under TITO. BLOW UP the INFRASTRUCTURE that helps the UKR army. Attack them from behind. Bring the war in their territory (all the way to Kiev, if possible). Train many civilians into sabotage techniques. Drive remote controlled tracks packed with explosives in all their checkpoints and camps (like the syrian rebels). There is very little that aviation and artillery can do against these methods.
Russians dont care enough about east Ukraine to spill the blood of their sons for it. And no russian maidan will happen because of this. Putin will not hesitate to act like Erdogan if necessary.
What I would do is to say that America wants to Provoke a conflict, and that they found Puppets who have agreed to be Filmed murdering a Person or having sex with a child that has a long jail sentence.
They did this because they wanted to be Rich at the expense of their fellow citizens, and that they will Obey America, because America has the Film on them.
The insults coming from the Ukrainians make this possible, and that America is a Danger to Europe.
Take a pick: Russia is doomed – or Russia is doomed!
Which one do you prefer?
If Russia continues to do nothing, people in the future will call Putin a big mouth that promises much (“protecting Russians in other countries”) and delivers nothing.
If Russia goes in there with its military, it becomes the aggressor that “tries to reusable the USSR”.
In other words: you loose or your loose. Hence: Fuck it!
I think there is only one – still very, very dangerous way out:
After the next massive killing of people in Donesk, I would go to the United Nations Security Council and offer them:
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10200.doc.htm
Just adjusted to the Ukraine, same wording.
Then I would – before the vote – tell everybody: hey it is what you agreed upon in Libya – right?
I would also tell them the consequences of saying “NO” to this:
Russia will give the UKR-“government” exactly 24 hours to withdraw.
After this every air asset will be shot down. Every UKR units that continues their attacks will be destroyed by air power. Just as the US+Nato did in Libya.
Of course the UNSC will vote with “NO”, but at least Russia has shown the world that what they do is not less legit as what was done by NATO before.
I think it is important that Russia acts now – the question is HOW and not IF.
A no-fly zone would weaken the UKR army a lot. That might be already enough. If not: then lets take out the army units in the disputed area.
IMPORTANT: The reasons for doing this should be: saving civilian lives and not just saving Russian people in Ukraine. A bit less nationalism and a bit more humanitarism would be something Russia really could need.
(I am on RU side in this conflict – but dislike the undertone of Russian nationalism – it is so backward. After all we all live on the same planet.)
There are Many People who think that America has found People in Ukraine who they are using today, and they promised them Wealth and Power, but that they must Provide Evidence that they will Always be America’s Puppet.
There are Many people who think that this was done with those People Volunteering to be Film murdering someone or having sex with a child, in order to be able to blackmail these Puppets to serve the Interests of America.
I think the last commentator is right-most of our politicians in the West (as well as,for sure, our ‘royal’ families and top generals) are so compromised that it is unbelievable.This explains how they are so willing to destroy even their own childrens futures and wreck their own countries-they have, literally, sold their souls to the Zionist warmongers for fear of ‘exposure’.