by: Olga Samofalova
translation by: Alena Scarecrow
source: http://www.vz.ru/economy/2015/10/13/772080.html
“We are independent in the gas issue”, – happily announces Poland having finally built a terminal for receiving liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, the new marine way of delivering gas from Qatar instead of saving financial resources will entail even much higher costs than earlier. Warsaw is already paying – now, that it has not yet received one single cubic meter of gas.
“Poland has achieved her strategic goal: we are independent in the gas issue” said the Polish Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz at the opening ceremony of the new LNG terminal in the city of Swinoujscie, obviously referring to the cherished dream of the Polish government – giving up Russian gas.
“Now we can get 90% of gas from other sources. Next year, provided we work hard, we will become 100% independent from gas supplies from the East”, Kopacz said. According to her, the terminal will allow Poland to purchase liquefied gas from anywhere in the world and get it by sea. “This independence will enable us to negotiate gas price”, the Polish Prime Minister added.
The project has taken 10 years to be carried out. It was initiated in 2006, with subsequent signing a contract with the contractor Saipem (a subsidiary of the Italian energy giant Eni) in 2008 and getting down to construction works in 2011. Initially scheduled to have been completed by 2013, the construction of the terminal was delayed for 2 years.
The terminal will open not earlier than in mid-2016. Prior to the commercial launch it is necessary to obtain and deliver technical or buffer gas which will develop the pressure required for pumping commercial gas. The first two shipments of LNG from Qatar arriving at Swinoujscie in mid-December 2015 and February-March 2016 are going to be used in performing start-up works, maintenance tests etc., which will further postpone the terminal coming into full-scale operation for several months.
Assuring that the new LNG terminal will render Russian gas no longer necessary, the Polish Prime Minister is stretching the truth. The reality is that the country’s energy is still highly Russian gas dependent. In 2014 Poland consumed 15.5 billion cubic meters (bn cu.m.) of gas, with only less than 28% (4.4 bn cu.m.) of it covered by domestic production; the rest 70% (11 bn cu.m.) was imported. In its turn, 80% (8.4 bn cu.m.) of that imported gas was supplied by Russia and only 20% of it came from Germany, Czech Republic and Norway.
The storage capacity of the new terminal, intended to be further extended by 50%, at the present constitutes 5 bn cu.m. which amounts to a third of the annual demand of Poland.
Now Warsaw has provided itself with a new sea route for gas delivery, but at what cost? Qatar, the only supplier Poland has concluded a contract with so far and only for the delivery of 1.5 bn cu.m. of LNG, will allow to utilize not more than a third of the terminal capacity. The remaining two-thirds have not yet been contracted – probably, owing to the disappointment in LNG which turned out to be too expensive.
The contract with Qatar, under which Poland undertakes for 20 years to purchase around 1.5 bn cu.m. of LNG from Qatargas per year on “take or pay” terms, is extremely unfavorable for Polish consumers. The price of Qatar gas is 2.5 times higher than the one offered by Russia – 700 and 265 dollars per one thousand cu.m. correspondingly, as the analyst of “Alpari” Anna Kokoreva told us. Paradoxically though it may seem, last year Poland asked not Qatargas but Gazprom for a gas price discount.
Thus, 8.4 bn cu.m. of Russian gas would cost Poland 2.2 billion dollars, whereas the same amount of Qatar gas – 5.9 billion dollars. Preferring Qatar to Russia would be a great folly, would it not? Nonetheless, Warsaw will have to purchase that 1.5 bn cu.m. so that not to violate the contract. Moreover, it has already been paying for it.
The thing is the contract had obliged Poland to start purchasing Qatar LNG in 2014, given that the LNG terminal had been planned to be built by 2013. However, the construction lagged but Qatar still insisted that the contract obligations should be met. In the end the parties agreed upon Qatar selling the contractual LNG to other buyers at a lower price with Poland compensating the price difference, told us Alexei Grivach from the National Energy Security Fund. So it happened that Poland cannot physically accept the gas from Qatar yet but has already been paying for it. The first two tankers from Qatar scheduled on December and early next year are delivering technical gas under a different contract signed this September.
Thus, the project on Qatar gas supplies has already proved ruinous for Poland. Warsaw will need decades to recoup the cost of the LNG terminal construction that amounted to 977 million dollars.
As it was stated above, Poland has no choice but to buy the 1.5 bn cu.m. of LNG from Qatar. Unless the domestic consumption increases, gas supplies from Russia will supposedly be reduced by the same amount. In this case we are only talking about the diversification of sources of gas supply to the country, not about the outright rejection of Russian gas – Warsaw will merely reduce the share of the Russian gas import from 80% to 60%. Such a diversification will come at a dear cost – Poland will have to overpay 652.5 million dollars for the purchase of 1.5 bn cu.m. of Qatar gas at 700 dollars instead of the Russian one at 265 dollars. To pursue so economically unreasonable a policy will be nothing but a sheer madness.
It should be noted that in order to utilize the spare LNG terminal capacity Poland is planning to obtain gas at the spot market. It has one peculiarity, though, which is its strong dependency on supply and demand – in the summer period when the European gas consumption dies down, the spot gas price might be lower than pipeline deliveries, whereas in the winter time the demand dramatically goes up and the limited market supply sends gas prices sharply higher. Thus, dealing with the spot market buyers can have no assurance their gas needs will be satisfied (unlike Gasprom which guarantees steady supply throughout the year).
Some time ago Warsaw was considering another variant of turning Russia down in the gas issue. Last year Poland initiated reverse gas supplies from Germany by “Yamal–Europe” pipeline, which had been made possible through the modernization of “Malnov” gas-pumping station in East Germany (its reconstruction was started in 2012). Poland threatened at the time that this project would provide her with up to 5.5 bn cu.m. of gas a year in case Russia halted supplies. However, despite all her ambiguous political statements and discontent over prices, Poland has not ceased purchasing Russian gas.
Either way, choosing reverse supplies from Germany means Poland will continue buying Gazprom gas but through an intermediary. As for Gazprom, it will just make up for the lost volumes by increasing supplies to Germany with Warsaw subsequently having to pay also a margin to the intermediary. That is exactly what the Ukraine – which bought only reverse gas from Europe from June to mid-October this year – is doing now.
OMG,I will be so happy when Russia will “finally” be able to ship most of her gas to Asia.And use most of the remainder on industrial projects in the EEU.She needs to stop dealing with those EU fools as soon as possible.Let them do without ,or pay through the nose for other supplies.In the meantime as the time gets closer for that. Russia should up the prices this winter.Let the EU get a feel for their future with LNG gas prices.
no kidding. I have no idea why these people are so stupid. They seem to be very happy to impoverish themselves.
They’re not stupid. They’re vassals
Its not only that.Its the age old Polish Russophobia.Its played up by the US,true.But it was there without the US.The US just uses it.They know the “buttons” to push among Poles.
Russia should double their gas tariff to Poland. If the poles complain simply tell them theyre free to buy more Qatari gas. Meanwhile Russia to should pocket double the profits while they can.
Perhaps Russia should table a law that ties a nation’s gas tariff to the level of support they supply to terrorists and nazi paramilitaries, call it an anti-terrorism and security services surcharge –> the greater a given nations contribution to Russia’s security burden, the higher the surcharge to that nation. The determination which should the sole discretion of Russian Intelligence assesments.
Russia really does need to do things like this if it ever wants to wake up the public (who will eventually either wake up the politicians or replace them at the ballot box or by force) in Western nations.
The longer Russia plays nice, the more they look and act like a victim.
They don’t need to be “mean”, they just need to be honest & straightforward.
They have every reason now to raise (double) prices to Poland. As i said, they should raise gas prices to Poland to just below what they’re paying Qatar, perhaps a 10% discount on the Qatar price.
In fact, that is how they could set the price to countries like Poland & Lithuania that insist on building expensive LNG terminals (which are also very easy targets to blow up should the time come I might add – ala Tianjin and 7 other places in China recently).
I disagree. Just because Poland and Ukraine want to act like crying babies doesn’t mean Moscow has to stoop to petty retribution.
Put in a different way, it’s not hard to look like the adult when everyone else behaves like a child.
Exactly, P. When you play by the West’s dirty rules of divide and conquer, bullying and demands for total obedience, all the time, to Imperial diktat, the Evil Empire wins. You become like it. If Russia and China act decently and with respect for others, bit by bit they’ll win respect, and preserve what’s decent in non-Imperial societies. The ones who continue to hate them are lost causes, too deeply inculcated in hatred to save themselves.
I like that idea… Pay for gas double, or buy it from Qatari??? LOL ! Whichever way it goes, they will pay more than they needed to for their stupidity. mod.edit. please watch your language – this is a public site. Thanks. PS
Unintentional irony, anon 1:07 am?
Stupid vassals.
It’s just self-harm driven by hatred. And the, dare I say it-dumb Polaks, are planning to ‘frack’ their countryside into a polluted Hell. God pity the sane Poles. I appreciate, from personal experience, their plight living in a country where the evil imbeciles are in charge.
The problem is that sane and young Poles left the country in drove for Germany, Austria, Netherlands etc..
Terminal is not yet finnished. It was PR stuns week before elections done by our prime minister.
And you have direct proof that our goverment doesn;t act according to Polish interests. Poland needs cheap gas from Russia to boosts its economy, but at this point we will make USA rich.
The problem with Russian gas in Poland is that the price is among highest in Europe. Even if the article is right and it costs Poland currently $265 then still in e.g. 2013 it was $526 and that’s not very remote from the price of LNG. I have never heard anyone saying that Poland will stop buying gas from Russia after completing the terminal. It won’t, as long as it will be cheaper than alternatives, it just wants to have a better position in negotiations and an alternative.
“Now we can get 90% of gas from other sources. Next year, provided we work hard, we will become 100% independent from gas supplies from the East”, Kopacz said.
Maybe you missed this “nugget” from the article.
Earlier, Poland was buying gas more cheaper than Germany. Russia demanded higher price after Poland helped in Orange Revolution in Ukraine.
@ as long as it will be cheaper than alternatives
—
But you can not constantly keep the supplier on a coupling: perhaps we buy, maybe not? He reserves for you a certain capacity and if he finds you not serious – forwards it to the others. Also – suppliers use different scale of prices: as less you buy – the prices rise up.
“… when Russia will “finally” be able to ship most of her gas to Asia …”
And when China will be shipping that same Russian gas, liquefied or not, to the EU anyway – at red-peppery prices ;-)
Breaking:
MH 17 one buk in ukies area the day before the ‘crash'(video)
http://www.pandoratv.it/?p=4380
This is almost as dumb as the Germans shutting down their nuclear power plants and then getting their energy from French nuclear plants!
Anon, that is something completly diffrent.
1. One shuts down nuclear in own area, to avoid nuclear meltdown risk in own are. Or to avoid radiation contamination of storage in own area.
So it makes sense to rather import nuclear energy, instead of having own nuclear plant.
2. Same goes for coal.
One wants less pollution in own area. So better to import it from somewhere else (if really needed).
Best if offcourse to not even have polluted or risk elements anywhere close either.
But in other words. Your example cant compare to the sher stupidity of the polish government.
Germany’s actually been building new coal-burning plants as they shut down their nuclear reactors. Compltely backwards, and will result in dirtier air!
http://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/green-energy-bust-in-germany
Germany is phasing out nuclear and coal because of their renewable energy policy. It takes time to start and stop a nuclear reactor and given how renewable energy production is pretty bumpy, they need to bring other forms of predictable power online quickly. That way, they’re not force to do brownouts and blackouts to ensure that the power factor doesn’t go nuts and start doing real damage to the grid.
Yet another bit of evidence that Polish jokes have a basis in facts.
While I am certain that LNG gas is much more expensive than piped gas, we have to double-check on that price deferential. Not saying it’s wrong, but just to make 100% certain.
This just goes on to show you, that many former socialist countries in eastern Europe (not all) still view themselves as nothing but anti-Russias. Their own self-interest is not the question, let alone having constructive relations with Russia. Their only raison d’etre is to spite Russia in any conceivable way. Lithuania has done something similar with a floating LNG station are losing their shirts on it.
Thing is, as domestic EU production declines relentlessly over the coming years (even Norway’s) the EU stooges will be compelled to buy more and more gas from Russia.
This is why it is imperative that the Qatar-EU pipeline never gets built. Long Live Bashar al-Assad!
hehehehe
Oh, but they can buy LNG from the USA!!
That will be free market in action.
(Joke)
Bad joke, actually, when meeting people’s genuine energy needs is ideology-driven.
Katherine
Unless of course I get my wish.And Russia says “Nyet” to them.Or if they do sell gas to the EU they raise the price to almost LNG prices.There seriously needs to be retribution delivered to the EU countries.Their Russophobia needs severe punishment.And the best way is through the wallet.Besides I fully expect the TTP to be accepted by the EU soon anyway.So no real need for Russia to be “Mr nice guy” anymore.The masses of Europeans marching against it are meaningless.The only way to stop it is for those “masses” marching, to march to their Parliament buildings and seize control of them.And I don’t see a single EU population with the “ba,,,” to do that.So they are toast,and the EU politicians and US know it.The only ones that seem to not understand that yet are the Russians.
I’d be the last to speak against a country wanting energy independence, but this is just dim. How much power could they have gotten by spending the $1.5 billion + that they spent before even starting to lose money on expensive gas, on say wind farms instead? And then it would actually be their very own power instead of just a different form of dependence.
Renewable energy is nothing but a publicity stunt. Expensive, unreliable, requires lots of maintenance and is nothing without state subsidies.
The example of Denmark is very characteristic.
They brag about how much of their energy mix is being produced by “renewable sources” but the fact of the matter is that Denmark has the higher electricity bills in the world.
No country of any size can prosper on “renewable energy” which is nothing but a publicity stunt.
Oil, gas & coal are here to stay, hence all the wars Syria, Ukraine, Yemen, Iraq etc etc etc. Hence all the color revolutions funded by the CIA and other western agencies. It’s all about control of energy reserves and pipelines. OK, it’s also about strategic location (being able to harass your opponents etc) but the main issue is energy reserves and control of pipelines, or as Pepe Escobar keeps saying: “Pipelinistan”
First, yes, renewables have up until recently indeed been more expensive than fossil fuels. But fossil fuel technology is mature and its economies of scale are as good as they’re going to get. Wind and solar are not mature technologies and so have been consistently getting cheaper every decade, and lately in the case of solar this has actually been accelerating. Solar has hit a cost point which makes it more feasible, which has accelerated production, which has ramped up economies of scale and juiced research and development. As a result it’s not only getting cheaper, it’s getting cheaper faster. Just in the last few years solar has suddenly hit price points which are way below what we’re used to and seriously change the equation around its economic viability. Solar is basically a high tech manufacturing technology; they get really cheap if production is large.
As of the present moment, new renewable installations are fairly cost-competitive (and certainly far cheaper than nuclear, which is now a dead-end technology). This becomes especially true if you are intelligent in assessing costs; coal seems cheap but creates a ton of expensive externalities, like people dying in hospital of emphysema or whatever, as the Chinese have been noticing. Natural gas is not as destructive as coal, but not as cheap either.
But again, renewables are continuing to get cheaper. Within a decade it seems clear that they will be appreciably cheaper than competing alternatives even on the basic “sticker price”. Installation is just continuing to accelerate. Energy storage is also getting cheaper at a pretty fast pace.
When it comes to the health of economies that use them, an under-appreciated fact is that more of the price of renewables goes into wages, less into windfall profits for oligarchs. So more jobs, more multiplier effects from people with jobs spending money, lower unemployment.
Meanwhile, the elephant you no doubt deny is in the room, is very real and very heavy. Global warming is happening. It’s causing droughts and tornadoes and floods and crop failures and people dying of the heat in bleedin’ Moscow. Many people around here no doubt think it’s some sort of AngloZionist conspiracy. It isn’t, they tried their best to obstruct progress on the issue. The Chinese get it, they’re now pushing solar as fast as they can (of course that’s partly just because they like breathing air). If we don’t get a move on there’s gonna be bad craziness and it won’t just be out there, it’ll hit us where we live.
PLG, nice exposition. If I might add, gas production leaks methane, a very powerful greenhouse gas, and continues to do so for decades from de-commissioned wells. Nuclear is the only mature technology that I know of that keeps getting much more expensive, and once there are large disruptions to power supply and/or sea-level rises beyond the current cosy predictions, there are going to be a lot of Fukushima-style melt-downs around the planet. And, as you say, anthropogenic climate destabilisation is certainly here, and rapidly worsening, with centuries of warming inbuilt already, even if we decarbonised overnight.
Hydroelectric recharge pumping can easily underpin all of the green electricity production needed to 100% power Europe. Unfortunately the Greens stand in the way. Quite ironic really.! Stupid greens are the ultimate fools for the hydrocarbon cartels. Man made lakes are somehow anathema.
Allow me to state some technical facts about generation of electrical energy, usually unknown to the broad public. Basic rule is that in any given moment the demand for energy and production must be balanced. If one produces more that consumers are using the system stops, sometimes very dramatic way. if demand is greater than production, well, you get the picture, teher is not enough for all, and parts of the system begin to fail. If a sudden change is introduced, like a huge plant failing, then entire system collapses. People from Eastern Europe have significant experience with system’s collapses :-)
It is true that wind generation of energy is not possible without flexible sources. Only water powered and gas powered plants are flexible enough to deal with uneven demand during the day. However, we cannot just add more dams and water powered plants at will. The problem with hydro electric plants is lack of convenient locations to build a dam. More or less, all the spots suitable for hosting a dam and a impounding reservoir (artificial lake) behind it have already been taken. For a water run power plant you need enough flow (cubic meters per second), enough height for water to turn the turbines, which means high enough dam, which requires good geological and seismic parameters. Spots for high dams are scarce. Even for lower dam heights, spots are scarce. Even on technically perfect locations, usually the space for the reservoir has been occupied already, by settlements, industry, or arable land, or national parks. Simply said, we have used up perhaps 90% of available water resources and locations for water power generated energy.
Gas plants perhaps we can built if supply of gas is provided. However, they too need lots of water. After all, it is the water turned into vapor by heat that turns the turbines, not gas itself. All heat based power plants (coal, nuclear, oil, gas) need lots of water. If no natural source of water is available, we have to build dams and impounding reservoirs, which bring us to the same problems as for hydro.
If we assume that nuclear fuel can provide enough power and energy and ignore environmental concerns, it does not help. Power plants have different roles in the electrical system. Coal, nuclear and some water powered plants are very inflexible, they provide constant output. It takes long time to shut them down and to change the output, at least 24 hours or more. Since demand is not constant, it varies over time, we need flexible sources, that can go from idle state to full throttle in much shorter time, measured in minutes and seconds. That is what water powered plants came into the mix, gas powered too.
Electrical system is a complex thing, it requires supervision and planned cooperation, shut downs, maintenance. Practically, entire Europe is one single system, all national systems are connected and work in synchronization, regardless what politicians want you to believe. If a hydro plants on Danube, on the border of Romania and Serbia suddenly goes out of operation, good part of eastern and central Europe will feel it. If nuclear plant in Slovenia shuts down suddenly, Austria and Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia will feel it. funny, isn’t it, eh?
The conclusion is that we do not have much room for growth. We can only be more economical with what we have. This renders idea of plug-in electrical cars untenable. It would save the oil, but we simply do not have enough electrically to power too many cars from the grid, unless we use the oil released by not using it for cars – to heat water and produce electricity.
What we can do is lower oil consumption of energy, for eaxample for cars. Consumption of passenger cars in Europe is 4-5 lit/100 km is a norm, 3 times that in North America. And guess what, gas is about two times cheaper in America than in Europe, so the money spent for gasoline in Europe and America is about the same. As far for saving oils, simply build the cars in America the way they are built in Europe and Japan, and we save tremendous amounts of oil. It will never be done, for business sake. We are getting screwed, eh :-)
He who saves energy will live to fight another day. The rest are doomed, unfortunately. No politics, pure engineering.
P.S. Guess who has perhaps enough good spots to build more water powered plants? mother Russia, of course.
All the best to all :-)
I think you totally missed the point of hydroelectric recharge pumping.
The problem with the likes of wind or solar power is that they only produce electricity when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining. Recharge pumping using say solar or wind is a simple method of storing energy which can be used when needed.
Problem with that is they are very inefficient, I think Norway has something like that where Denmark supplies water during the day and at night Norway sends it back.. All that makes the entire thing like 25% as efficient. And that does not even take into account the costs that go with it all.
We have been inundated up to the ears, on the island where I live, with encomiums and PR about Sarsen Island, in Denmark. The message is: If Sarsen can do it, so can we. well, our sitatuion is quite different. My understanding is that the only way the Danes (and Sarsen Island) can have and putatively rely on the strong “alternative” sector they have, with all the wind farms, etc., is that the energy generated stochastically by wind (and solar) is “stored” in Norwegian lakes, to be released as needed, including back to Denmark. Which I understand has the highest-priced electricity in Europe.
In principle I have no problem with this system—I can accept the principle of high cost for keepiong greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. My problem is with misrepresenting how things work with Danish renewables to other localities, who then are really consuming pie in the sky.
On another point:
Re A Wend,” It would save the oil, but we simply do not have enough electrically to power too many cars from the grid,”
Cars do not have to be powered from the grid. They can be powered directly from solar panels. I am quite sure. We have a local installation of this sort. It is my view that many, many local needs for power can be powered locally. Not that we don’t need a grid, and larger installations to even out the stochastic renewable and local sources.. We do. But the idea of distributed generation is to feed multiple smaller generation into teh grid to reduce the total need for oil- and gas-fired etc. generation. work is also being done on ocean-based technologies. A Wend doesnt seem to tkae any of the features and promise of distributed generation and also new low-head hydropower technologies into account.
Another point: Negawatts. The cheapest energy is the not consumed energy. Major structural adjustments are needed (such as replacement of car trips with mass transit trips, bike trips, etc.). To do this requires massive political will and foresight. We dn’t have the political will in the USA, and our economy and life style an d employment structure and everything is far too dependent on and integrated with the fossil-fuel economy (much as the economy of the WHOLE USA, not just the South, was oiled by the slave economy)—but that does not mean that the topic should be relegated to the sidelines. In fact, negawatts should always be kept front and center. Indeed, negawatts can be an effective incentive in the context of distributed generation: The more watts are conserved, the more cash flows to the people whose lelectric meters are revolving backwards. I believe the term negawatts was coined by Amory Lovins, of the Rocky Mountain Institute.
Katherine
Intersting info and discussion, thanks for that!
There was a study by MIT this year, which showed that even with today’s technology, the planet could generate all its energy needs from the sun (solar panels)
https://mitei.mit.edu/futureofsolar
I am no specialist, so would be interested in hearing others opinions – why aren’t we going in that direction?
The light of the sun does not wish to become electricity, she is the specialist at heart.
you make jokes about the stability of the net in EU, CEE all together.
It is by magnitube better, then you claim ( well, u live in Canada ).
I do not recall any major blackout in the last 40 years.
The production and distribution are highly sofisticated.
Blackouts are in countries, like Albania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania..
The reason is not a technical one, it is corruption.
State budget allocates reserve funds for a contingency in a case…..of unpredictable high demand, emergency situation.
Those funds are at a direct control of the government. They are pre-allocated and appropriation always bypasses parliament. Hence governments use a third party e.g. Albania, to buy the energy in Greece. The third party charges 70% on the top. Because peak energy is anyhow 40% more expensive (at least) and they like to have a thick slice of ham on the bread.. This is not insider info, this is, let me call it, a public secret.
Further, you live in Canada, which is big country (in size of km^2). But in a small Austria e.g. there are PLENTY of small producers of energy, Hydropower plants in sizes from 5kW to 10 – 20 MW, who do not transmit it over long distances, but consume the electricity locally.
I worked in a factory, Jenbacher Werke, who owns a mini HPP and produces a third of the el. energy required….2/3 are of course from the public power grid. There are a plenty of them.
look at 47,388022 11,771815
Wind and solar have a lower capital cost per installation. Installations can take advantage of existing structures, such as warehouse roofs, stadiums etc. This brings the electricity closer to the consumer. Currently about 10 % of electricity is lost during transit and distribution. By locating the generating unit closer to the consumer the losses will be substantially reduced.
Expect electric and hybrid vehicles to soon be sporting solar panels on the hood and roof of these vehicles. This will allow the vehicles to generate a portion of their charge while driving or while in an outdoor parking lot during daylight hours. This will either extend the vehicle range or reduce the battery weight, depending on the engineering objectives.
Kick the Polacks out of Poland and bring back the Prussian Empire.
Freddy:
All kicking, bashing, boxing forbidden.
Your comment may receive invective blasts.
@Anonymous
” All kicking, bashing, boxing forbidden.”
And pointy PRussian helmets.
PS.
Very interesting article. Thank you Olga and Alena.
I would love to see more analysis here of the nuts and bolts of gas contracts, prices, and infrastructure. I believe they are a crucial factor in the background of the Ukraine situ, among others.
Katherine
So no more Russian gas for Poland? Russia should cut existing Polish contracts down to 0 asap then.
It also means no more reverse Polish gas to Ukraine then.
Let the two idiots of Europe (Poland & Ukraine) pay a premium on their gas.
It’s called cutting off your nose to spite your face and you just know the Poles & Ukies love spiting their (insert word here) faces!
Having a closer read, Russia should immediately set any new contracts with Poland at the price of Qatar gas, maybe minus some small discount.
Just to rub it in.
Can’t you see how insane these regimes are?
They are willing to pay money (they don’t really have) to build infrastructure they do not need to buy non-Russian gas at a x2.5 times premium!
It seems to me that their only reason in life is to spite Russia. Nothing more and nothing less.
If Russia raises prices significantly, then they prefer to freeze, burn coal, wood or buy expensive LNG from anywhere else other than Russia (who is the cheapest, most reliable provider)
Unfortunately Russia has been and will be dealing with all these idiots for decades to come.
The bad news for these Russia-haters in the EU, is that the EU’s (and Norway’s) gas output will go on decreasing in the years ahead.
This leaves them with no other choice but to INCREASE their gas purchases from Russia!
This is exactly why they have gone insane with toppling Bashar al-Assad. That way they could have built mega-pipelines from Qatar and KSA to bring gas to Europe and undermine Russia’s position significantly.
Once they realized that toppling Assad was much more difficult than they first thought (mainly due to Russian support for the Assad “regime”) they came up with ISIS. The function of ISIS was to cut eastern Syria away from Assad’s coastal stronghold and create a puppet state for KSA & Qatar through which the mega-pipelines would go through.
Now, the UK and France are the most interested (from the Europeans) in having these Qatari-KSA pipelines built since they have been on the KSA/Qatar/Emirates/Kuwait payroll for decades now. Also, their desperate situation (both the UK and France drowning in debt) has been compelling them more and more to seek to placate the Gulf states so as to increase the amount of kickbacks from said Gulf states.
Once these Western chicken-hawks realize that Assad is not going anywhere, thanks to Russian/Iranian/Iraqi support (also China implicitly there) they will then have to bow down to Iranian demands if they ever want to see any serious alternative to Russian gas reaching Europe.
This will force a renegotiating of alliances and relationships across the Middle East. This reshuffling of the Middle-Eastern cards is bound to benefit Russia, no matter what. This has been Putin’s masterstroke!
Now, the Iranian card is not a safe-bet for the West. The Chinese and the Indians will be more than eager to have Iran’s gas flow towards them, and not towards Europe.
This is the grand-strategy that Putin has been following for many years now. To have the different pawns in such positions so as to better place Russia in the entire Eurasian pipelinistan.
Perhaps “Polish jokes” are too kind?
(Rhetorical question)
funny, after I saw the news about the leak on US drones rt:
https://www.rt.com/usa/318767-obama-drones-papers-leak/
I decided to check if cnn.com would at least mention it somewhere.
Well, what was I thinking? it’s no where to be found…
Here you have the main link:
https://theintercept.com/drone-papers
Hahaha,a friend posted this on FB. I’m assuming its a joke.But I’m not “sure”. It seems like a TV show a lot of people would enjoy:
“The Hunter!”
A new 12 part game show from Rossiya-1 starring Vladimir Putin.
In each episode, Vladimir Putin is pitched against a Russophobic opponent in the Russian Taiga.
The opponent is given a head start of one hour as they try to outrun President Putin. If they make it back to base and survive, they will receive a 100 million ruble prize.
However, if they fail; well, then they are fed to the Amur Leopards.
Episode 01: Dalia Grybauskaite
Episode 02: Tony Abbott
Episode 03: David Cameron
Episode 04: Anders Fogh Rasmussen
Episode 05: Angela Merkel
Episode 06: Petro Poroshenko
Episode 07: Barack Obama
Episode 08: Yulia Tymoshenko
Episode 09: Donald Tusk
Episode 10: Jens Stoltenberg
Episode 11: Stephen Harper
Episode 12: Arseniy Yatsenyuk
Episode 1, with Dalia Grubaukaite, starts at 20:00 (Moscow Time) on November 1st.
Well, Tony Abbott (GAWN), Stephen Harper (Going this weekend hopefully), Yulia Tymoshenko (I’m more interested in her daughter to be honest), and yep, the rest of them are nobodies.
I’m surprised Mr. pissant himself Francois didn’t make the list though. Cancelled the Mistrals did he!
Maybe the joke writer thought Putin would object to hunting someone too stupid to even be a “worthy” trophy .
Oh, too delicious.
I am so in awe of people who have the satirical gene and can confect funny, pointed scripts, cartoons, videos etc that poke holes in the strutters’ amour propre and come up with zingers as well as inspired silliness.
I hope this “game” is for real, and The Saker provides links for more Laff Breaks.
Katherine
OT
poetic quadcopter footage by Russian journalists from warzone Latakia, Syria >>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c5SzVA_EbQ&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioaDaUoL2hg
We all got to stand by our principles and that is what makes us different.. I congratulate Poland on that point. Even Ukraine shows us that you can be a principled Nazi. Poland should buy 100% of their gas from Qatar, Ukraine 2.
Russia really needs to build some pipelines to India, China, Japan and other Asian countries who pay over $500 for their gas supplies. Lowering that by half would almost double the GDP of india at least. It was one of the benefits Europe had over others, cheap energy supplies. The cheaper the gas the cheaper it is to produce goods and as a whole price inflation goes down drastically.
Poland has been occupied how many times by Russia?
How did letting in Russians work out for Georgia?
Hint it gave Russia an excuse.
Russia has serious economic problems which it wants to fix by pushing its problems onto other countries. Russia could be the gem of the world admired by all. Russia seems instead to take the role of plunderer.
For every time “Russia” invaded “Poland” there was an equal number of times Poland invaded Russia.As for Georgia,it worked out very well for them,they “exist” today.When they “begged” Russia to save them,they were split between the Ottomans and the Persians.Who used Georgia as a “football”, changing hands between them.Both of whom took Georgians as slaves,raped their women,and massacred those resisting.Russia stopped all that and allowed Georgia to remain a Christian Georgian country.In that case (and Bulgaria’s for that matter) the old saying “no good deed remains “unpunished” fits quite well.
A communique from the Bizarro Universe. The ‘Through the Looking-Glass’ world, or from ‘Upsidedownistan’. Like reading the Guardian or listening to the BBC.
Poland could try to pay Qatar with “FreedomApples”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4dlXh0IfA0
to my pole friends, have two of them, I always say i understand why they have everthing that is or recalls russia. One doesn´t erase the past or culture that easy.
But recently I tell them that the mind frames and mindsets in past history that have constructed that antagonism have changed, and changed completely. The only sector where the world elites have succeeded to build up a true globalism is the “COMMUNICATION” one, precisely.
And further history accelerates itself: only if the MSM keeps hatred going it really is kept on and lingers on. That is what still happens to poland nationals.
Good timing on this article the Saker.
Looks like Poland is already starting to try and derail Nord Stream 2:
http://sputniknews.com/europe/20151016/1028626815/poland-eu-commission-nord-stream.html
The Germans will not be amused.
Maybe they’re starting to wake up that their mindless antagonism to Russia will cost them in the end when their “friends” the Germans shaft them.
Gee, it’s almost like I’ve read this script before somewhere.
And a pipeline from Poland to Lithuania for gas deliveries:
http://tass.ru/en/economy/829179
And Poland also wanting to do maintenance on Mig-29 jets. Russia not amused:
http://sputniknews.com/europe/20151016/1028648725/bulgary-poland-mig29.html
America has done a massive propaganda job on Poland, since they terminated the Polish President in April 2010, the US finally got their missiles facing Russia, and who knows maybe Poland still thinks that Stalin is still in charge, it must be the only country in Europe that does not realize that the USA is the real enemy,
The Psheks are not only very stupid people — they are die-hard ingrates as well. Stalin’s USSR saw to it that there still are any Psheks alive today and also expanded Poland’s national territory at the expense of Germany.
I seriously believe Poland doesn’t qualify for statehood. Should be terminally partitioned between Russia and Germany. A Katyn a day should keep Polaks at bay.
Q: How do you bring about another Katyn?
A: Easy. Bring your firearm, take some Psheks out in the forest, then show them your firearm and “await further instructions”.
” Warsaw will need decades to recoup the cost of the LNG terminal construction that amounted to 977 million dollars”.
No problem! They will gradually recoup their investment through the annual loss of about $7.5 billion. Oh wait…
Poland would have spent the money better to build more pipelines with its neighbors.
BTW. Lithuania built a LNG installation too. It is quite a different story but it is similarly costly:
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2015/06/16/european-lng-political-wish-but-economic-pipedream/
I always was absolutly sure Germany, particularly one special lady, is world champion in intra-rectal gymnastics! (Too much german people having filled their rain deflector between their shoulders with material gathered from these intra-rectal gymnastics).
At least Poland seems to be close-by winning this world championship?
P.S. The question is not if there is such a world championship. The question is – which rectum?
One of the most extraordinary follies of the age. Compounded by the likelihood that the Qatari regime is unlikely to last much longer than the Saudi monarchy. And the countdown there has already started.
Pity the poor Polish people (and the Polish poor, who are, as ever , the playthings of idle, treacherous aristocrats and emigres, particularly).
How many better things could have been done not only with the capital invested, at a healthy rate of interest for the western bankers no doubt. But also for the annual cost of paying twice the market price for fuel.
How long before an honest politician runs for office in Poland?
Polish are not the poor people. They’ve done to much evil in their history, to make anyone cry after them. And all this as a saint catholic sword between the orthodox and the protestants.
Why is Poland shooting itself in both feet by buying Qatari gas? To appease Washington? The decades long debt repayment to Qatar is true fiscal madness. Why? In painstaking detail, why?
The US is using Poland as a key nation to help bring down and to erase Russia, which in turn will erase Poland. Europe is to remain an obedient colony of America, Poland to be designated as one of the managers. Poland seem to believe all the propaganda Washington spews, yet she is too smart
to actually believe anything American. Why would she cut off her own nose to spite her face?
Why would Poland cut off her nose to spite her face? A really big question that needs answering. Ukraine is doing the very same thing. As is France, Germany, Italy and Greece. No it’s not because of the US. Anyone???????
MaJo,
Don’t keep us on tenterhooks – spill the beans!
NSA secrets???
Katherine
Historically the Poles have always been a dollar short or a day late. Plus normal addition and subtraction has always been difficult. Stupid is a cruel word when used collectively against the mindset of a nationality, but history supports the contention.
FYI: Addition and subtraction (let alone multiplication and division) demand slightly more than “normal” human intellectual effort if you prefer Roman numerals. Arabic numerals are not very popular among über-devout Catholics, mind you.
Poland is pissed off at all the immigrants coming from the middle east.
Poland then buys gas from Qatar.
Qatar uses money to fund opposition elements in Syria and elsewhere in middle east.
People leave the war torn hell of the middle east and head to EU.
Poland is pissed off at all the immigrants coming from the middle east.
Stupid is as stupid does.
-flek
The Psheks might be pleased upon discovering that their new countrymen, for all their ungodly infidelity towards the Vatican, are “victims of Russian aggression”. At least, the Psheks won’t have any great and glorious West to help them counter-argue. Poetic justice at its very finest.
Ruled by fooles
Good article and discussion points but easy answer to basic problem.
Stop trading energy in US$ and revert to local currencies contracted through bilateral agreements.
I want to buy – you want to sell, OK let’s cut a local deal
Oh, those Polish authorities are the same betrayers as ours in Serbia?! Or may be – only catholic useful idiots??
Actually not, дулебг.
In stark contrast to Serbia, Poland is a paradigmatically Russophobic country. Historically, just like in Galicia and Croatia, this can be strongly attributed to the reactionary Roman Catholic church and its hatred of Orthodox Christianity. Hence, in all the aforementioned places, the result is a popular mindset which combines stupidity, backwardness, and outright chauvinism. Consequently, the Polish authorities cannot really be said to be betraying the people. That would imply the Polish people were demanding something totally different, which they clearly are not (in any meaningful way). On this deranged ideological basis, plain awful results are a given but “Poland is Poland”. To wit: Deeply reactionary ideology trumps common sense many times over.
Lec Walesa gave them and the world solidarity, so do they know what the word means, I think it means that the USA was free to sabotage the plane of their president in April 1910 and blame it on Russia.