by Scott for the Saker Blog
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?
- Officially Turkey admitted the death of over 30 soldiers last week of February. Official numbers over 50 dead and over 100 wounded.
- Over 30 Turkish soldiers were killed February 27th.
- The number of killed terrorists is unknown.
- Erdogan called for the NATO Council over Idlib. NATO refused to invoke Article 5.
- Syrian Tiger Force dealt a resolute blow to terrorists in the southern Idlib.
- Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces claim gains in Idlib taken over some territories liberated from the terrorists as the result of Syrian Arab Army contra-terrorist operation the Idlib Dawn.
- On February 26, Turkish special forces and the most prepared terrorists from the National Front for Liberation gained the villages of Afis, cut M5 highway by fire control in Al Duweir checkpoint.
- At the earlier morning of February 17, Syrian Army positions by Turkish self-propelled howitzers and mortals nearby town of Saraqib. The SAA sustained serious losses at the checkpoints in the north and west of the town.
- About 10:00 on February 27, the Turkish troops and the jihadists entered the Saraqib from the north and started moving to its center. Simultaneously, the united forces of the terrorists and Turkey force took suburb of Turanb, and the united forces of Tahrir al-Sham and the National Front for Liberation entered Saraqib from the west. by 1 PM an entire town was envated by the Turkish militants and the terrorists. BY 15:00 an entire town was under the enemy control, and Turkish checkpoints were de-blockaded. They failed to take over the village of Jubas, east of the town of Saraqeb.
- Jubas was taken by the islamists by 16:00 on February 27.
- During this offensive, the SAA regularly shelled the Turkish and Islamic militants.
- As reported by the BBC in Russian, at least 33 Turkish soldiers died as the result of strike by the Syrian air force.
- The strike was directed against the terror groups in which Turkish soldiers were embedded.
- At the same time, Turkish checkpoint that received an immunity as the result of the Idlib deescalation agreement were reported shelling the SAA positions.
- The MOD issued a statement saying: “In violation of the Sochi agreement, Turkish troops continue support of the terrorist group in the area of deescalation.”
- “On February 27, 2020, the units of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham terror group operating in the Idlib de-escalation zone made an attempt to conduct a large-scale offensive operation on the positions of Syrian government troops,” the ministry informed.
- The Turkish military who came under fire from Syrian troops on February 27 were among the advancing militants, the Russian Defense Ministry told reporters. https://tass.com/defense/
1124699 - Al-Monitor, real number of killed Turkey soldiers is from 50 to 55, and over 100 wounded.
- TASS Agency posted Erdogan’s statements on February 27 and 28.
- Turkish forces are delivering air-strikes at the positions of Syrian government forces in response to shelling at Turkish soldiers in Idlib
- “With the support in air and on land, air strikes were delivered at the position of the regime [of Syrian President Bashar Assad], and we will continue delivering airstrikes,” the statement said.
- https://tass.com/world/1124449
- https://tass.com/world/1124665
- Simultaneously, Israeli helicopters attacked Syrian army posts in Syrian province in Quneitra, and the nearby towns of al-Qataniyah, as reported by SANA agency. As the result of the attack three Syrian army soldiers were injured.
- Turkish authorities allegedly blocked Western social media sites in February 27 and 216.
- Turkey needs to “get rid of” the Russian S-400 missile defense system it has purchased, a senior State Department official said on Friday February 27.
- On February 28, in Brussels an emergency meeting of the NATO council,
- NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg held a press conference in Brussels on Friday, February 28, following the North Atlantic Council emergency meeting on the situation in Syria. The North Atlantic Council, which includes the ambassadors of all 29 NATO Allies, meets following a request by Turkey to hold consultations on the situation in Syria, under Article 4 of NATO’s founding Washington Treaty.
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=eHcqfdeigAs - The North Atlantic Council, which includes the ambassadors of all 29 NATO Allies, met on Friday 28 February, following a request by Turkey to hold consultations under article 4 of NATO’s founding Washington Treaty on the situation in Syria.
- https://www.nato.int/cps/en/
natohq/news_173923.htm? selectedLocale=en - NATO continues to support Turkey with a range of measures, including by augmenting its air defenses, which helps Turkey against the threat of missile attacks from Syria.
- https://www.nato.int/cps/en/
natohq/opinions_173939.htm? selectedLocale=en - NATO didn’t offer any assistance to Turkey, but expresses strong solidarity with Turkey at special meeting of the North Atlantic Council
- https://www.nato.int/cps/en/
natohq/news_173927.htm? selectedLocale=en - Press point by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the North Atlantic Council meeting at Turkey’s request for Article 4 consultations on the situation in Syria
- https://www.nato.int/cps/en/
natohq/opinions_173931.htm - After NATO meeting, Erdogan called president Putin.
- Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the implementation of the Russian-Turkish agreements reached in 2018 and 2019. They stressed that the priority task was to fight international terrorist groups.
- http://en.kremlin.ru/events/
president/news/62877 - TASS informed about possible meeting of Erdogan and Putin on March 5-6.
- TASS also sited Erdogan asking Russia not to interfere in Turkish military clashes with the SAA. Erdogan aslo stated that Turky doesn’t claim any Syrian territories, but wants to secure stability on its borders.
- Erdogan also said that Turkish militants were invited to Syria not by president Assad but by Syrian nation. “We will be on the territory of Syria as long as Syrian people want it.”
- Syria: SAA advances into Idlib province
- The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) liberated the key town of Kafranbel in Idlib province, among 15 other villages in the region, the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) confirmed on Wednesday. Copied from page https://ruptly.tv/en/videos/
20200227-014
Friday 28 2020
- SAA continued advancing along the administrative boarders of Idlib and Hama provinces and by the night of February 29 libnerated the al-Ghab plain valley.
- While everyone’s attention was directed to Saraqib, the main operation was conducted took place at the south of the Idlib province.
- The SAA managed to liberate the large mountainous region called Shahshabo Mountain. The SAA reached the towm of Kafr Nabl, an administratively belonging to the Idlib Governorate. The SAA turn left near the town and cut the main supply route (MSR) of the Turkish 10th checkpoint in the Shahshabo mountains.
- ALL attacks against Khmeimim Air Base were conducted from the area of the 10th post. This post is about 40 kilometers straight from Khmeimim, whch is in the reach of the Grad missiles that were routinely targeting the Khmeimim air base.
- After the liberation of the Shahshabo Mountain, the SAA practically fully liberated the the al-Ghab valley.
- IN just four days, the Syrua government army liberated and took over its control over 40 villages and towns. It’s hard to tell an exact number because many small villages are not on the map.
- The SAA 25th division was redeployed to under Saraqib to stop the pro-Turky terrorists advancement there.
- Turkey started shelling not only the 25th division, but Syrian Marines, and even the Lebanon’s Hezbollah, killing nine fighters. Even so Hezbollah was in Aleppo and never took any actions against Turkey.
- Thousands at funeral for Hezbollah fighters killed in Syria by Turkish airstrike
- BEIRUT — Thousands of mourners throng the coffins of five fighters from the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, whose funeral is held today in southern Beirut after they were killed in neighboring Syria’s northwestern Idlib region.
February 29
Turkish foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, who is on a visit to the Qatari capital, Doha, said on February 29 that the Russian air force did not participate in strikes against the Turkish military in Idlib, Syria. Russia supports the Assad regime, but it cannot be said that the Russian air force is carrying out airstrikes against the Turkish military. Turkey is making joint efforts with Russia to ensure sustainable peace in the Idlib de-escalation zone.
Additional info NOT in the ANNA NEWS video
Syria: Turkish military post seen after SAA advances towards Shashabo mountains Syrian Arab Republic, Shashabo mountains Politics February 28, 2020
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) reported its advance towards areas within proximity of the 10th Turkish military post, in Sher Maghar, after operations near the Shashabo mountains in the southwestern countryside of Idlib on Friday. “After the decision was made to continue the military operation in Sahl el Ghab, and the advances made by the SAA towards the mountains of Shashabo and Zawiya, we took control over Sher Maghar area, where the Turkish point is located along [with] its fortifications and Turkish forces,” a Syrian Arab Army officer said. According to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) the SAA continued its counter-offensive in the countryside of Idlib and Hama Governorates on Friday, after Turkish-backed militant groups operating in Syria claimed they had regained control Copied from page https://ruptly.tv/en/videos/
Syria: SAA advances in Al-Zawiya mountain region of Idlib governorate Syrian Arab Republic, Al-Zawiya mountain region Politics February 28, 2020
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) said it had advanced in the southwest of Idlib governorate after regaining control over the Shashabo mountains, located at the southwestern arm of the Al-Zawiya mountain region, on Friday. “We are now on al-Zawiya mountain in the village of Kukfin, overlooking Sahl el Ghab, where the units have made great advances reaching the village of al-Mansoura. We will continue until we liberate the whole of the al-Zawiya mountain and until we reach Jabal al-Arba’in overlooking Arihah and the city of Jisr al-Shughur,” a Syrian Arab Army officer said. Copied from page https://ruptly.tv/en/videos/
March 1
Turkey: Police searches Sputnik news agency office in Istanbul Turkey, Istanbul Politics March 01, 2020 at 10:34 GMT -06:00 · Published Police searched the office of the Russian news agency Sputnik in Istanbul on Sunday. Law enforcement officials reportedly had a search-warrant given by the office of Istanbul’s prosecutor general, though the reason for the operation had not been disclosed
https://ruptly.tv/en/videos/
——
ANKARA, March 1. /TASS/. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced on Sunday that Operation Spring Shield was launched in Syria’s Idlib on February 27.
“Operation Spring Shield is successfully continuing that was launched on February 27 in response to a mean attack on the Turkish military. At the moment, one drone, eight helicopters, 103 tanks, 72 howitzers, three air defense systems and 2,212 troops of the regime [of Syrian President Bashar Assad] have been eliminated,” Akar said, according to NTV report.
https://tass.com/world/1125287
Aircraft shot down over Saraqib, Idlib, was a large drone TAI anka.
If the information is confirmed, Turkey has lost 2 of the 6 newest and most expensive drones of this type in a few days (the price of each car is up to 30 million dollars)
At the same time, it is likely that the Turkish drone was shot down by the pro-Turkey militants themselves, confusing it with a Syrian plane. There is even a video where militants celebrate the destruction of a Turkish drone
Twist of events.. The airplane that was shoot this morning over Saraqib was Turkish Air Force TAI Anka-S, armed combat drone. Syrian Air Defence claims the downing. Rebels celebrate.
https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/
The terrorists celebrate the downed “Russian” drone, which in fact turned out to be Turkish. Damascus, of course, said it was shot down by government air defenses. But this wasn’t accurate.
Turkey downed two Syrian SU-24 jets which tried to attack Turkish planes and destroyed one air defense system that shot down a Turkish drone — Turkish Defense Ministry
ANA confirms Turkish forces have targeted two Syrian warplanes, says pilots landed safely with parachutes
According to the representative of the Syrian defense Ministry, on Sunday afternoon, ” two Syrian aircraft were performing a task to counter armed terrorist groups in Idlib province.” At this time, he added, “Turkish warplanes intercepted and fired on two Syrian planes.” The planes, according to the MOD, were shot down over the territory of Idlib province. He said that ” the pilots ejected safely.”
https://tass.ru/
MOSCOW, March 1. /TASS/. Russia’s Defense Ministry has rejected a report that a Russian Su-24 jet was downed by a man-portable air-defense system in the sky over Idlib.
“The report citing militants’ Internet resources that the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces’ Su-24 was shot down from a man-portable air-defense system over the Idlib de-escalation zone is fake,” the ministry said.
https://tass.com/defense/
Another Syrian tank and dozen soldiers wiped out in another Turkish airstrike
https://twitter.com/TSKMap/
Syria declared a no-fly zone over Idlib, will shoot down anything flying there
https://www.sana.sy/ru/?p=
the Russian foreign ministry said on Sunday.
“The sides discussed preparations for an upcoming meetings between Presidents Putin and Erdogan,” the ministry said.
Russian and Turkish Foreign Ministers have also agreed that measures are needed to create a favorable atmosphere for dialogue on Syrian settlement.
https://tass.com/politics/
Russia is the only country whose military personnel is present in Syria legally in accordance with the international law, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov
“All other military personnel of other countries are in Syria in violation of the norms and principles of international law,” Peskov said.
Minister of the interior of the Republic of Turkey
Number of migrants leaving Turkey country via Edirne as of March 1 09.55 hours; 76,358
https://twitter.com/
Number of migrants leaving Turkey country via Edirne as of March 1 19.40 hours; 76,358 100.577
https://twitter.com/
Unfortunately the Turkish UAV’s have done some serious damage to the Syrian military in the past few days.
That said, the SAA has adjusted their tactics and has started shooting them down. The frequency of the attacks has thus declined, and the reality is that the Turks have only a limited number of these UAV’s they can keep throwing into the battlefield. More than 6 Turkish UAV’s were shot down just today.
The Syrian Army, on the other hand, will have 100% of its hardware losses replaced by Russia free of charge.
What will the terrorists do once they lose their “air force” they had temporarily gained? And what will the Turks do once they have no more UAV’s to throw suicidally into the battlefield?
The point is, things may seem chaotic right now, and the SAA has definitely suffered some rather unfortunate losses. But they will do what they always do, lick their wounds and change their tactics to ultimately crush the enemy. There is no way Turkey is going to be able to annex all of Idlib province like Erdogan wants, especially not if Syria, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah have anything to say about it.
Erdogan is either going to have to accept that Idlib is not his to steal, or engage in a direct hot war with Syria, escalating way beyond the current crisis, a war which could see two nations lobbing hundreds of ballistic missiles at eachother. Either way, the Turks are going to be taught a lesson they will never forget.
The equipment can be replaced. But the trained and battle hardened syrian soldiers who died can not.
If the statement from turkey saying that they killed 2000 soldiers is true I don t see how the syrian army will be able to keep fighting.
It very sad.
At the same time that the Turks wage war against the Syrian military, they are also waging a psychological war.
This figure – 2000 dead Syrian soldiers – is obviously part of that psychological warfare. The real truth is not even 10% of that number.
Look at what is happening on the battlefield. The SAA has retreated from a few areas, but for the most part is holding their ground. Would a force that just suffered thousands of casualties be capable of holding onto these territories under such an onslaught? Of course not.
My advice – Don’t let the Turkish psychological warfare get to you. The fact that they have to Lie so brazenly should show you that they are losing. The winning side does not have to make up such fantasy numbers in a real war.
True. Twitter was flooded with Turkish trolls in the last few days, accusing Russia of all possible sins and spreading fake ‘news’ about Turkish achievements.
Debunking just one example:
“The shot of the destruction of the Panzer S1 is from Libya, as are half of the other videos.”
“Turks release half of aerial video footage of drone strikes from Libya, saying they are in Syria. The affected Pancer S1 does not have a KAMAZ chassis used by Syria but has a MAN chassis used by the UAE. And we know the UAE donated the Panzer S1 LNA.”
Thank you for your reply. Yes I know that s why I said “If it s true”.
The Syrian Army just re-took the vital strategic town of Saraqeb as of this morning, and has repelled the terrorist offensive near Kafr Nubl in South Idlib.
Only a very few, if any, Turkish drones are left flying at this point. The hostile Turkish strikes have basically ceased completely.
It would seem that reports of “thousands dead Syrians” and “hundreds of destroyed tanks, helicopters, and generals”, have been greatly exaggerated.
After all, how could a military that just lost thousands of soldiers and armored vehicles be capable of not only re-taking a vital town but also stopping a militant offensive in it’s tracks?!?!
Clearly most of the “reports” of the “destroyed Syrian Army” were fiction.
Erdogan can’t escalate much further than he already has. His drone army has been destroyed after just a few days. He can’t send in his air force into Syrian airspace without being shot down. His ground forces can’t directly engage the SAA without risking a massive slaughter. He *could* engage the SAA with ballistic missiles or ground to surface missiles/artillery from Turkish soil, but even if he does, it won’t be enough to force the SAA to retreat from the areas they’ve gained, and it would also invite retaliation against targets on Turkish soil.
In other words, Erdogan is all out of cards to play and even if he escalates further, it will change absolutely nothing on the ground.
This is what happens when a madman paints themselves into a corner.
The only sad thing is believing Turkey‘s inane boast in a rush to shed crocodile tears.
Clarence
Erdogan stated that the Turkish Army killed 2.212 Syrian soldiers, the figure today being raised to 2.500. Makes you wonder how Erdogan can stipulate exactly how many Syrian soldiers were killed. No, Syria never lost so many troops, the true figure probably being less than 10 %. Proof of this can be seen in southern Idlib, where the Syrian Army liberated more than 40 villages and towns in a large geographic area. After this the Syrian Army, no doubt, will turn to the north, once again liberating that highway.
International law appears to be for suckers. Ask the ICC about law when it comes to crimes committed by America.
Why hide behind it when you know that the zio nazis, the anglo zionist and their stooges and sycophants will not abide by the law. As a lawyer, I have learned that laws are for the rich to cover their theft, corruption, and disdain for the common man. Russia can say they are there in Syria to protect the people, but the USA will not abide by international law and will continue to rape, pillage, and steal from Syria.
US Strike Carrier Group D. Eisenhower has entered the Mediterranean Sea after crossing the Strait of Gibraltar steaming to the East at good speed, to demonstrate “fully commitment to our allies and partners”.
It seems that the US will help Erdogan under any circunstances.
Now I see closer a retreat of Syria+Russia to the starting point one month ago
If you want to see those carriers reduced to a pile of blazing scrap try using them to attack the Russians in Syria.
DFC = Deluded Funny Crackpot
Exceptional and Indispensable folks don’t make a Sultan magnificent.
Syrian Girl has just pinned the tweet:
Syria continues fighting Al Qaeda & Turkey, without Russian support.
Where even Russia falters in front of Turkey, little Syria stands up with resolve!
Come what may, I am so proud of us.
With a nation like ours, you know without doubt, every inch will be liberated.
I adore her spirit,
I have to post it here, hopefully she will read it.
( I cannot post tweet, ‘cos have no intention to join zion !@#$ network )
Syria continues fighting Al Qaeda & Turkey, without Russian support.
Where even Russia falters in front of Turkey, little Syria stands up with resolve!
Those words are very important. It s obvious that russia backed down. It s a clear sign of weakness that the empire will exploit because that is what the empire has been doing for decades.
This operation in idlib was a bad idea. When putin will meet erdogan they will make another agrement that turkey won t respect (again). I cannot call that a “victory”.
Not necessarily, I suspect the Russians are waiting for a meeting, and the results of that meeting may determine how they then procede. The Russians are there to assist in fighting the terrorists, not Turkey, Israel or the US. This is their leagle position, and only a foolish move by Turkey or the others will alter this. In their position, they must make an attempt to solve the issue peacefully. If this is not possible then other means may be necessary.
Russia put off getting fully involved until Turkey makes a serious move. Putin and Erdogan are meeting this week to discuss the situation. Turkey has thousands of troops, lots of tanks and artillery just across the border awaiting his word to invade. Russia will do nothing until that army is moving into Syria – and rightly so.
Victor have you anything but your own word for this statement: ” Turkey has thousands of troops, lots of tanks and artillery just across the border awaiting his word to invade.”
What makes you think that? And is it true? Give us some real support for this statement.
By the time Turkey move massive forces into idlib, it may well be much too late to stop them, without full scale war. Turkey and its head chopping proxies are of course, in Syria illegally and need to be resisted right now, with all the means that are available.
Russia must know that Turkey is “agreement incapable” and that nothing can be achieved by negotiating with it. It seems as though Russia still wants “brownie points” from the West by being seen to be willing to giveTurkey, yet one more last chance. Russia’s reasonableness is only ever seen as weakness by Washington and as something to be used for the benefit of the Empire.
Passer
This so-called Syrian Girl needs to be reminded that in the past few days that large area of southern Idlib could not have been liberated without Russian support. Why on earth would Russia cease support after giving it for years ?
Is it possible that in the last few days Russian Air Force was more cautious with airstrikes due to the stinger/manpads provided by Turkey? We know for sure that a Russian Su dodged a stinger just after the Aleppo liberation, and that would have been a heavy loss. Could be that HTS and Turkey took advantage of this to attack Saraqib and counter-attack in the Al Ghab plain?
@B.F.
There is wildly spread trend that either completely ignores Russian contributions or mentions them occasional.
Often as something ordinary, of no special interest. While they in the same time put under the microscope every Russian mistake in the same time.
And exaggerate importance of Assad, SAA specially.
In majority cases on the few forums that I visit there is huge probability to bump into comments where Russia is most of the time in the role of the culprit for something.
People with very high expectations are disappointing with Russia, Putin.
And Putin, Russia are “guilty” most of the time for never giving enough.
That mantra of pushing Russia in wars against Turkey, Israel and even USA & NATO is permanent on those forums.
Many repeat often that Russia must fight wars for Syria and must totally protect Syria.
There’s too much data, or else, some vital points are totally missing – which is the resolve of the West to turn the tide, to start the war all over again, this time as a proper war, not a hybrid thing.
The only impression I get is that there has been a major miscalculation – a trope well rehearsed but misused –, which offers no recourse like some of the previous ones.
On the other hand, situations like this obviously do exist. There is nothing I can do about that.
Some removed – please stick to the post and your own commentary – no attacks on the author. Mod.
I was under the impression that Russia wouldn’t allow foreign aircraft to fly over Syria, let along attack Syrian targets, there again I suppose the Israelis have been doing so with gay abandon. Perhaps keeping friendly with Turkey (and Israel) is more important geopolitically than Syria and Iran. Obviously like all countries Russia does things in its own interests, but if it abandons Syrian northern provinces and oil to Turkey then it will be seen in the region as no better than the US. There again even the US, while happy to abandon smaller groups like the Kurds, usually at least continues to support its allies.
I understand the Syrian planes were shot down from Turkish airspace.
This topic certainly has produced a score of trolls spreading nonsense on the topic.
Do they think this excretion is taken seriously here?
“If the statement from turkey saying that they killed 2000 soldiers is true I don t see how the syrian army will be able to keep fighting.
It very sad.”
Here’s another:
“US Strike Carrier Group D. Eisenhower has entered the Mediterranean Sea after crossing the Strait of Gibraltar steaming to the East at good speed, to demonstrate “fully commitment to our allies and partners”.
It seems that the US will help Erdogan under any circunstances.
Now I see closer a retreat of Syria+Russia to the starting point one month ago.”
The Mods need to weed the Vineyard of much of this crapola.
On an article with so many links to back the statements, we are festooned with totally infantile comments that promulgate anti-Russian propaganda and fake news against Syria.
I call BullSh*t on this stuff. The comments are like junior high school numbnuts in the back of the class begging for attention.
Swarms of them polluting the conversations.
Just goes to show how far behind the eight ball some of these folks really are, when the truth comes out they will be quietly sitting on the sidelines wondering where did it all go wrong, but the list goes on and on.
So if someone is skeptical about what has been happening in syria for the last few days he is a troll or some anti russia/syria agent?
Serioulsy? Who are you ? Nancy Pelosi s cousin?
The truth is that this idlib operation is a big mess and it doesn t look so good. At least for now.
There is huge difference between being “skeptical” and irresponsibly spreading misinformation
( deliberately or not, or for whatever reason that might be).
There is no”mess” in “Idlib operation” but in unsubstantiated radical statements. And above all in jumping on conclusions prematurely. Often if not always without any indicators, or based only on sourcless “news”.
It is like expecting that cacophony produced can articulate comprehensible, well balanced sound. While only purpose of that cacophony is to be backdrop that nurtures stupidity, insanity and madness running in the circles.
In biological terms that manifestation is known as: parasite.
Agreed. The evidence of Russian surrender and NATO victory is without merit.
Welcome to guardianistaville, L445.
They are migrating from places like “South Front”.
There are truckloads of trolls and hysteric misinformators there (“useful idiots” as they are called )
Spreading Western and above all Turk propaganda lately.
“Junior high school” types are assassins for any comprehensible dialogue on the forums.
For the moment they are only “polluting” conversations.
But if they grow in numbers and have things their way, they will kill any conversation completely, by overwhelming infinite stupidity.
As Mark Twain would say:
“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.”
Nobody
I completely agree with you here, and also with what you wrote in your other comment ( /turkey-vs-syria-sitrep/#comment-768128 ). These “commenters” are attempting to disrupt relevant conversation and info sharing with propaganda and other psywar nonsense. Engaging with them, asking them questions, arguing with them, etc, facilitates their disruptive efforts only further.
Well, after the shoot down of two Syrian jets, it’s on Putin to rein in Erdogan. We’ll see what happens after the early March summit.
I don’t think Erdogan is going to back down unless Putin reads him the riot act – as in explaining what can happen militarily to Erdogan’s forces inside Syria if Erdogan doesn’t stop escalating.
Then we’ll see what Erdogan does. Personally I think by mid-March Russia and Turkey will be at war, at least inside Syria.
Russia Can’t Guarantee Safety of Turkish Aviation in Syria After Damascus Shuts Idlib Airspace – MoD
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202003011078445372-russia-cant-guarantee-safety-of-turkish-aviation-in-syria-after-damascus-shuts-idlib-airspace–mod/
…….
Fighting in Idlib continues.
“The Russian Air Force and electronic jamming cleared the sky of Idlib and its surroundings from the air movements of the Turkish enemy”
“The Syrian Arab Army brings military reinforcements from elite elements to the fighting axes in the Idlib countryside. “
“Syr army units, backed by quality equipment, reached the Idlib fronts, before midnight on Sunday.”
“Turkish convoy in Sarmin in Idlib countryside being bombed by Russian fighters”
“Russian warplanes are still in the sky of Idlib” (after midnight UTC)
This is what has happened,
Erdogan, and his masters (v@÷\’@n), have been unmasked.
It was already that way. However, now we can all see it, unless we choose not to.
#notreallycomplicated
.
Syria is looking to reactivate relations with Libya (which Turkey is also attacking).
Let’s see how Turkey deals with fighting a two front war against both Syria ad Libya.
Syria, Libya Discuss Reactivating Bilateral Relations
https://syria360.wordpress.com/2020/03/01/syria-libya-discuss-reactivating-bilateral-relations/
Leith Fadel, son of Ziad Fadel who runs Syrian Perspective site:
“Breaking: Tobruk-based Libyan government to reopen embassy in Syria. Ceremony is tomorrow.”
“The conflict between Qatar/Turkey and Saudi Arabia/UAE/Egypt has arguably benefitted Bashar Al-Assad more than any other regional development. It’s a bit weird because Iran is part of the Qatari-Turkish alliance, just not in Syria.”
“But Damascus appears to be seeking reconciliation with Arab countries, including nations like Saudi Arabia, which was wholly opposed to them throughout most of the conflict.”
…….
BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:00 P.M.) – The Syrian Ministry of Information stated on Monday that the Libyan embassy in Damascus will resume its work, which stopped in 2012.
According to the Syrian Ministry of Information, the Libyan embassy will resume its diplomatic mission on Tuesday, which will also be attended by the Libyan government representatives from Tobruk.
This announcement comes just 24 hours after representatives of the Tobruk-based government made their first visit ever to the Syrian capital to meet with the Damascus administration.
The new ties between Syria and Libya come at a time when both governments face interference from the Turkish Armed Forces in their conflicts.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/libya-to-reopen-embassy-in-syria-for-first-time-since-2012/
Syrian Army retakes the large city of Saraqib after fierce battle
Reported by SANA
https://www.sana.sy/en/?p=187139
and
Reported by AMN (Al Masdar News)
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-retakes-the-large-city-of-saraqib-after-fierce-battle/
and Syria News
https://www.syrianews.cc/saa-cleans-saraqib-from-erdogan-forces-again-and-as-planned/
SyrianGirl is reporting:
“Just as I predicted, the Syrian military traded Kafr Nabl to reinforce Saraqeb”
and
“The Syrian military will pull back from Ghab Plains to re-enforce #Saraqeb. Keeping the M5 open is the priority.”
Jisr Al Shaghour OP was a priority for Russia to protect its base. Syria alone doesn’t have the resources for now, with Russia’s current hesitation & lack of resolve
1:51 AM · Mar 2, 2020
https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1234385916887584768
SyrianGirl is very excitable but seldom is she just plain wrong. Here is some footage of the overnight battle.
https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1234404245828292608
Please read the reports before commenting. If this is accurate, it is a victory for SAA.
Please also read Larchmonter445 here : /turkey-vs-syria-sitrep/#comment-767932
Commentators have been kneejerking and wailing in sackcloth and ashes and irresponsible statements not seriously considering the emergent situation with an analytical eye. We gotto clean this up. Bear in mind this is war, and there will be periods that we simply do not know what the situation is on the ground. I hear The Saker in my ears as he has said so many times to me: “We Gotto Wait.” So, wait before you post and consider if your post is adding some value, or not.
(Save the “guardianistaville” comments and the ‘who are you’ criticism and comments – keep it clean.)
@Amarynth, the article to read regarding the current situation is this one by Elijah Magnier. It’s excellent.
https://ejmagnier.com/2020/03/01/erdogan-idlib-is-mine/
“A significant development took place in Syria on Friday. A Russian attack on a Turkish convoy in Idlib in north-west Syria killed 36 Turkish soldiers and officers. In retaliation, Turkey launched an unprecedented armed drone attack that lasted several hours and resulted in the killing and wounding of over 150 Syrian officers and soldiers and their allies of Hezbollah and the Fatimiy’oun. The Turkish drones destroyed dozens of tanks and rocket launchers deployed by the Syrian Army along the front line. Russia ceased air support for Syria and its allies demanded from Russia an explanation for the lack of coordination of its unilateral stoppage of air support, allowing the Turkish drones to kill so many Syrian Army and allied forces. What happened, why, and what will be the consequences? ….
The full article can be read at the link provided by the commentator … mod
Oh Puhleeeze, not again. Many experienced and long time commentators (some of whom are military analysists in their own rights) have now told this commenting community that Magnier is *not* always a reliable source. He has moments of clarity. But please .. a person who quotes “According to decision-maker sources in Syria” and then builds a scenario around that, is clearly not where we should take our information from.
At this time we must disseminate that which is fact and not that which people dream about and build scenarios out of.
Let’s take a look at somebody with some visible smarts and the deep knowledge to back that up, and this is Andrei Martyanov. I’m going to beg his patience with me as I will repeat his first paragraph here: It is titled
Never Jump to Conclusions.
” Based on some obvious social media propaganda and misinformation. These past days the ONLY question which realistically was at the center of the shitstorm with Turkey and Erdogan going off hinges was not of Turkey winning anything or dealing “catastrophic” (not really) damage to SAA but how to arrange a face-saving retreat for Erdogan. As was expected, SAA retook Saraqib today (in Russian, TASS), Erdogan suddenly expressed his love for Russia and Iran in Syria by declaring today that Turkey merely seeks her security and in no way aims at Syrian territory and especially not at Russia (in Russian), and, of course, those declarations came about, probably, after Russia, namely Command of Russia’s Syrian Group nonchalantly stated that it cannot guarantee safety of Turkish aircraft over Idlib. Anyone needs any comments here? ”
So, here is the rest which is short : http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2020/03/never-jump-to-conclusions.html
Geez, I’m going to beg his forgiveness and post his final paragraph as well:
“Putin-Erdogan meeting will proceed as planned in Moscow on March 5th (I think) and Erdo will have to endure a rather humiliating several hours when he will be read instructions on how to behave. As I said, he could have had a lot, now he will be forced to take what will be given to him. So, here is my advice to all who were making “conclusions” based on Turkish propaganda in social media: learn to be patient. Combined arms operations, especially with limited forces such as those of SAA take time and as any operation they have phases and are characterized by fluid tactical and operational situations. As per Russia, I repeat it again, as I did so many times before–Russia is in Syria not to fight the war for Syrians, it is their responsibility, Russia merely helps, including by providing safety for Bashar Assad’s government, which is the only legitimate government in Syria. Simple as that. Now we have to be patient and see what Moscow and Ankara will arrive to on Syria. The process of clearing Idlib from jihadists must continue and it will continue after, most likely, some ad hoc short “truce”.
And then I will ask Martyanov’s question again.
Anyone needs any comments here?
(and then of course, apologies for my own momentary lack of patience)
Forgive me Amarynth,
When did Magnier become a non grata source?
Here is Syrian girl, whom you yourself claim that she “seldom gets wrong” endorsing Magnier’s most recent Idlib analyses:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1234339937710833665
There’s not actually that many good sources out there, many hit and miss, especially realtime. What % of fallibility in a source are we looking for?
Who said ‘non grata’. My words were ‘not always reliable’ and has ‘moments of clarity’.
But, go and compare for yourself the piece that I posted from Andrei Martyanov, and the wide differences between the Magnier new article.
And go and compare from Colonel Cassad from his telegram channel :
“Good news is coming in from Syria this morning.
1. The Syrian army defeated Turkey and the HTS/SPA Saraqib militants. Heavy fighting outside the city has been going on since yesterday evening, but they took the city only in the morning, the militants crawled back to Afez and Nayrab. The city was stormed by the Tiger Force and Hezbollah, supported by artillery and aviation. There are tangible losses on both sides. It should be noted that, despite the heavy losses of the Syrians in the preceding days, they were able to assemble and advance again.
2. At night, a Turkish convoy was struck near a Turkish observation post in Kminas. There are dead and wounded. The 300s were taken by helicopters and ambulances to Hatay province. There are also reports of serious losses of Turkish Special Forces in the battles for Saraqib. According to unconfirmed reports, Russia has been actively using jammers against Turkish drones since yesterday. Also, since yesterday, Russia has refused to guarantee the safety of Turkish planes in the airspace of Idlib.
3) In the south, attempts by the Turks and militants to take Kafr Nabl and advance to the Al Gab Plain and the mountainous areas of Zawiya are expected today. In addition, one can expect attempts to counterattack Saraqib with the support of Turkish artillery and drones. In the morning, battles took place to the west and northwest of Kafr Nabl.”
And finally, on this specific Magnier piece that was posted, take a look at how long into the future he plans scenario. We have from The Saker that it is now difficult to predict. We have from Martyanov that it is now a question of Erdogan ‘saving face’ and we have indept reporting from Colonel Cassad.
Also in another piece Cassad said it will be 3 heavy days for the SAA before the meeting with Putin. Take a look at the Magnier headline .. Erdogan : Idlib is mine .. and then take a look at what is really happening according to more trusted sources in these circumstances.
Do the comparisons yourself, and you will see why I say ‘not always reliable’ and ‘moments of clarity’. Sometimes he has something, and sometimes not. But the other sources are usually much closer to the center of the board.
Amarynth, thanks for your clarification and the info on Martyanov.
I think Syrian Girl got carried away with comments like this one: “Glad you’ve decided to join us Bear. Now let’s take back what is ours.”
Leith Fadel reply to Syrian Girl:
“They never abandoned the Syrian military in the first place. If it wasn’t for Russian airstrikes, the militants would have retaken much more ground.”
Hannibal Khoury (“his family member has been fighting Obama and Hillary’s terrorists on the front lines in Syria for seven-years”) tweeted yesterday in the midst of Putin betrayed again complaints:
¨I AM SYRIAN. I am forever thankful to #Russia. No matter what happens. RUSSIA SAVED US FROM NATO’s TERRORISTS! If not for Russia, the flag of ISIS would be flying over Damascus now, and Syrian Christians like me would be getting beheaded in the streets. LONG LIVE RUSSIA!”
[All caps are in original.]
The Turks continue their drone attacks:
Turkish aircraft continue strikes against Syrian Army troops across Idlib, Aleppo
https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-aircraft-continue-strikes-against-syrian-army-troops-across-idlib-aleppo/
“This air war between Turkey and Syria has opened up a new phase in the war in Syria, as both Ankara and Damascus are now in open conflict inside the northwestern region of the country.”
This escalation is something to watch. It could push the current Turk-Syrian conflict past the stage where diplomacy can rein it in.
So can we deduce that the theory reported from Col.Cassad is wrong? (Roughly speaking, the theory was that the battle for Idlib was a scene allowing Erdogan to save the face while Takfiris are massively slaughtered, and allowing Syria to retake its province). This was intriguing and it would explain the loud propaganda and trolls around in the last days, however Turkish soldiers, drones and Syrian planes appear to be real and heavy losses. Was this necessary?
I can see a lot of people are blaming Russia for not engaging with Turkey and labeling them as cowards. But I suppose people are forgetting few very vital points here.
1. Russia is not there to show off its military might, wage war with everyone, show its loyalty to Syria or any of that. Russia is there to secure its navy base and to secure that Syria doesn’t turn into a breeding ground for terrorists, which is right next to its border. And Russia has been successfully achieving that since the beginning despite one of their jets being shot down by Turkey, multiple cruise missile attacks by the west, and many more. Instead of being hot headed, Russia stayed rational, calm and focused to its objective. And I can assure you they are still focused to those two objectives. Acting recklessly will not get them anything good.
2. Russia had a duty of care, according to the astana agreement, Russia was supposed to ensure safety of the Turkish soldiers in Syria. Even though it was Turkish fault as they couldn’t inform Russia of their whereabouts, reality Is that 40-50 of their soldiers died in a single air attack and this is on Russia. If Russia didn’t step back and let Erdogan do some face saving to its people then it would put Russia and turkey into a hot war. Russia has nothing to gain but a lot to lose from such unwanted conflict. So it’s very rational for them to step back temporarily and give some time for deescalation.
3. Unlike the west or turkey, Russia usually plays the long game. The response is not always immediate. But there will always be some response.
4. Russia has lost way more in wars in modern history (2nd world war). They are mighty fighters but they truly know the cost of a heavy war. The Russian doctrine is to avoid wars, save the motherland and the people. A war is only the last option when they get attacked or when their security is heavily challenged. Nothing like that has happened yet. When it will, all of us, in every corner of the world should get truly worried about the consequences.
“Blaming Russia” is trend.
And in my opinion that trend was initiated as anti-Russian psi-op and now is spread everywhere as widely accepted approach to which majority tries to fit in.
Like some sort of collective Mantra and indispensable code.
As if we are modeled in certain way by something or somebody, how to behave, talk and even think.
I would like that Saker or some author of his format writes something one day on this collective phenomena.
About mind and social engineering and some general trends as examples.
Hi there, I’m just another nobody looking at these events. I think the large majority of people who comment a bit negatively about Russia’s where-about in Syria, are in fact inpatients, sometimes I fall into that category too. That doesn’t mean that they don’t have a correct view regarding Russia’s presence on that theater, they “only” want a fast response.according to their logic which is not the same with those who have the Real View.
“I think the large majority of people who comment a bit negatively about Russia’s where-about in Syria, are in fact inpatients,”
As opposed to outpatients, yes, I agree. But inpatients of which institutions, that’s the question?
;-D
Psychiatry of course…if I wrote “inpatient”. Wanted to write “impatient” but never mind, have a good fun my friend, plenty of associations regarding the first word…
Excellent comment, Max.
Russia seeks to ‘create conditions so that NOBODY wants to fight us’ – Putin
https://www.rt.com/russia/482078-putin-trump-military-spending/
“In terms of military spending, Russia trails behind China, Saudi Arabia, the UK, France, and Japan, with a defense budget worth $48 billion, although its lower cost base gives it more purchasing power than most western states. “Moreover, our annual expenditures are falling. In contrast, other countries’ spending has been rising,” Putin stated.
We are not going to fight against anyone. We are going to create conditions so that nobody wants to fight against us.”
Russian War Correspondent Sheds Light on Turkey’s Drone Warfare in Idlib
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202003021078452948-russian-war-correspondent-sheds-light-on-turkeys-drone-warfare-in-idlib/
“Turkish drones in northwestern Syria are targeting everything that moves if it is suspected of being Syrian military-related, Idlib-based Rossiya 1 correspondent Evgeny Poddubny has reported.
“As soon as Turkish attack drones appeared over the skies of Idlib, the nature of the fighting changed dramatically,” the correspondent said in a news broadcast that aired Sunday.
According to Poddubny, all of the losses suffered by the Syrian Army in recent days were at the hands of Turkish drones.
“Turkey has spared no expense for the strikes, which aren’t cheap, hitting supply columns, hitting single targets – cars, pickup trucks, armored vehicles, even motorcyclists. This is what we have been told by Syrian troops on the front line,” Poddubny said. Syrian forces, meanwhile, are doing their best to hold their ground despite the 30-year gap in technology, reportedly shooting down as many as six Turkish drone on Sunday.
The journalist emphasized that if the airspace over Idlib is not cleared of Turkish drones soon, the Syrian Army will have a hard time holding on to the recent gains it has made against the terrorists operating in the province.
Turkish drones being used in Syria reportedly include the TAI Anka family of drones, which have a weapons payload of up to 200 kg, as well as the Bayraktar TB2, a long-endurance UAV armed with anti-tank missiles.”
US Will Not Provide Air Support to Turkey in Syria’s Idlib – Pentagon Chief
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202003021078453210-us-will-not-provide-air-support-to-turkey-in-syrias-idlib—pentagon-chief/
“The United States will not provide air support to Turkey in the wartorn Syrian province of Idlib, Pentagon Chief Mark Esper has said, speaking to reporters in Washington on Monday.
Asked directly if US assistance would include air support, Esper responded bluntly “No.”
The following part of this relates to the propaganda from magnier that is getting spammed by commenters on just about every Syria related topic:
” Asked what he told his Turkish counterpart Sule Akar during their recent phone call, Esper said the message was that “Russians aren’t always good partners.”
Also Monday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said there was “no clear, unambiguous intelligence on who was flying which planes” in the deadly attack on Turkish troops in Idlib last week. Earlier, Moscow stressed that the Russian air force was not involved in the strikes in the area of Behun, Idlib where the troops were killed. Later, the MoD-affilliated Center for Syrian Reconciliation clarified that the Turkish forces were hit by Syria as it retaliated to a Nusra* offensive, with the troops operating outside of their observation posts and in the same area as Nusra militants for some reason.”
The propaganda that Russia isn’t supporting Syria enough (unreliable partner) originates from israeloamerica. Likewise the attempt to worsen Russian-Turk relations further by blaming them for the airstrike which killed Turkish soldiers is also an israeloamerican psywar exercise. While I am sure magnier is well aware of whose propaganda he is repeating, those spamming his material may not be aware they are promoting israeloamerican anti-Russian propaganda.
Now they do not have that excuse. ;
Actually, one thing which seems very timely to do right now for Syria and its allies is assassinating Erdogan. That would be most welcomed also in Europe where it’s all too evident what Erdogan’s intents amount to (more refugees) and it would be an instant, formidable pacifier with the ability to keep Turkey sane for decades to come. Needless to say, a huge relief for long-suffering Syria plus the fact that Erdogan and Turkey richly deserve it makes it even more attractive an option.
No, this is wrong. Whatever Erdogan is, he is the lesser of all the evils in Turkey. The Kemalists who would replace him are far worse and would have no qualms genociding non-Turks. They would stir the nationalist rage pot into a frenzy and these things would not be able to be contained.
Be careful. Whatever he is, he is restraining all these sorts of horrors from happening.
Idlib situation is the bait trap designed for US to “reluctantly” step in to help NATO ally Turkey.
I see a scenario where US pushes up from long held Al Tanf which has been largely inactive but held specifically for this reason. Pushing north through Palmyra and meeting up around 42 with a Turkish push south from Idlib. Cutting Syria in 2 and cutting off Hezbollah supply line like they have always planned. Or Israel stirs the nest until Syria finally strikes back and US pushes from Al Tanf to Daraa. Or both…