Tons of thanks, a SMO update and some beautiful week-end music!

First, my deepest gratitude to you all!

I want to begin today’s report by thanking all those of you who have reached out to help me and the blog. In spite of the hard economic times, many of you have sent donations, offered to volunteer and, last but not least, said prayers for me. Of course, your donations will help financially, but it is your moral support which most deeply touched me and which give me the courage and determination to keep on fighting this fight, in spite of the apparent futility of taking on an entire obscenely rich and powerful ruling classes which are waging merciless warfare on all of mankind. I wish I could thank each and every one of you personally, but I simply don’t have the material time to do so, so all I can do is thank you all here for your unwavering and kind support! You are truly the best community any person can hope to have!

Now let’s turn to the latest news next.

The Ukrainian so-called “counter-offensive” in the south:

The biggest news out of the Ukraine is the failure if the much announced Ukrainian “counter-offensive”. Here are the latest reports from the Russian MoD: (emphasis added)

The enemy suffered losses and was pushed back from Olginka, Thorn Ponds and Arkhangelsk.
A battalion of the 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was defeated near the settlement of Sukhoi Stavki. Currently, the destruction of its remains is being completed.
To unblock the AFU units, 12 tanks supplied to the Kiev regime by Poland were transported across the Ingulets River. Some of the tanks were destroyed by the powerful fire action of the Russian troops. Several tanks were blown up in their minefield during a disorderly withdrawal. Only five Ukrainian tanks were able to break back, deep into the territory controlled by the AFU. During two days of unsuccessful attacks on Mykolaiv-Krivoy Rog and other directions, Ukrainian troops lost four combat aircraft: two Su-25, one Su-24 and one MiG-29. Three Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters were shot down in the air. Russian troops also destroyed 63 Ukrainian tanks, 59 infantry fighting vehicles, 48 other armored combat vehicles, 14 pickups with heavy machine guns and more than 1,700 Ukrainian servicemen.

But this does not tell the full story. 1’700 KIAs might not sound like much, but in reality this is a huge deal for the following reasons:

These 1’700 soldiers were supported by armor, artillery and even some aviation and the USA/UK had huge hopes that this much announced “counter-offensive” would yield some good PR. The Brandon administration is absolutely desperate to show at least something vaguely successful, yet this so-called “counter-offensive” resulted in only a few tactical attacks which brought no tangible results whatsoever.
The size of this force shows that this operation was mostly about PR (and not a real counter-offensive!). The Ukrainians never had a chance, not on the tactical level and, even less so, to develop tactical attack into an operational counter-offensive. Considering that it took them months to prepare this rather modest operation, this shows how much the Ukrainian armed forces have been degraded over the past months.
Even worse for the Nazis and their US patrons is the fact that now the entire southern front just lost a lot of its best soldiers and hardware. Considering that the Russians are reinforcing their southern forces (see below), this is an especially dangerous development for the regime in Kiev.

Also, 1’700 KIA in one single maneuver is the biggest defeat for the Nazis since 2014, even bigger than the Ilovaisk “cauldron”!

I noticed with absolute dismay that, apparently, the Ukrainians tried one more time. The result? Another 350 personnel, 31 tanks, 22 infantry fighting vehicles, 18 of other types of armored vehicles, eight armed pickup trucks, and 17 of other types of military vehicles destroyed by Russian artillery and airpower.

This is what is left of the Ukrainian “assault barge”

And today (Thursday) there are report that the Ukrainians tried to seize control of the ZNP. First they fired over 100 artillery shells. Then 2 diversionary groups totaling 60 soldiers on two crafts landed near the ZNP. They were detected and destroyed by the Russian aviation. Two hours later, the Ukrainians used two barges carrying an entire battalion (200-300 soldiers). They were detected and sunk.

All that while the IAEA inspectors were already at the nuclear power plant! (I wonder if they will have the courage to report what they must have seen).

Crucially, it showed, yet again, that all that nonsense coming out of Kiev and the other Nazi capitals in the West is just total, utter and terminal nonsense with no connection to the real world. None whatsoever. Hence the mass freakout of the Western ruling classes.

And then there is this: CNN confirms that the USA helped the Ukrainians prepare this “counter-offensive”! Oh wow! Who would have thought ;-) But then, what else could we expect from a US military busy with “increasing its lethality” by “embracing, promoting and unleashing the potential of diversity and inclusion“?

Now, just to clarify: did the Ukrainians take a few villages and positions? Yes. Absolutely. Why? Because the Russians had absolutely NO reason in the world to do what the Nazis do and “stand immobile to their last breath” in a static defensive line. So they did the following:

Where the Ukrainian attack was weak, they used their infantry and armor to beat them back.
Where the Ukrainian attack was strong, they simply moved back, let the Ukrainians advance, and then wiped them off in what can only be called a “turkey shoot” (not to mention a useless butchery).

This is nothing new. The Russians have done that since the beginning of the SMO. In every case, the villages or positions the Ukrainians took (and triumphantly presented as a huge “peremoгa” or victory) saw the Ukrainian forces destroyed by Russian artillery, follow by a withdrawal (or total annihilation).

So next time when you hear that the Ukrainians took control of village/location X, always make sure to follow what happens in the next 48 hours and see for yourself if this Ukrainian “victory” then developed into anything meaningful. As soon as you do that, everything becomes quite obvious.

Western weapon deliveries to the Ukraine

This is one of the biggest canards in this war. Today, I will deal only with one aspect: the planned delivery of ex-Soviet aircraft to the Ukraine. Basically, this is utter nonsense. Like with ANY advanced weapons system, combat aircraft need all of the following things to be effective:

They need to be fully integrated into a combined arms operation.
They need to be operated by highly trained crews.
They need to be used in sufficient numbers to achieve any meaningful effect, which in the case of the Ukraine means real military airfields, not dirt roads, highways or field refueling stations.
They need to be maintained/supported by a complex and advanced supply chain and qualified specialists.

Since none of that can happen, the deliveries of MiG-29s (or any other aircraft, really) to the Ukraine will make for semi-decent PR and that’s about it. There are even rumors that the US is now training Afghan pilots to train them on ex-Soviet fighters… Let’s see how many pilots the US and NATO actually can convince to fly these one way missions.

In reality, it takes MANY YEARS to form a capable military pilot, and there is no substitute for this. So no, even if the US finds enough suicidal pilots to try to fly MiG-29s (or other aircraft) against Russian Su-35S, this will achieve exactly nothing other than marginally slowing down the Russians (who will have to deal with this new threat just like they dealt with all the others Wunderwaffen: HIMARS, M777, CAESARs, etc. etc. etc.). Even the (so far hypothetical) delivery of, say, F-16s, will make very little difference. There is no Wunderwaffe, least of all old Soviet kit (even when somewhat upgraded with NATO equipment).

Rumors of a major Russian offensive

Okay, as of right now, this is a rumor, but there is strong evidence of two things happening:

The Russians appear to have assembled one (some rumors say two) Army Corps composed of volunteers and equipped with modern weapons.
These forces seem to be deployed through and near the city of Rostov-on-the-Don.

Whether these forces were deployed as reserve force in case of a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive (however unlikely) or whether these forces will be used to attack the southern front is anyone’s guess. In fact, it could be that these forces had and still might have both tasks. And now that the Ukrainian counter-attack was defeated, they might well be used to move towards Nikolaev along the coast (supported by the BSF) which would put immense pressure on the over-extended and weakened Ukrainian forces.

In this context, I was recently sent a pretty interesting document:

This is a letter from the Mayor of the Siberian City of Omsk who announces that at three battalions of volunteers have been formed in this city alone. It is reasonable to assume that similar things are happening in most other Russian cities.

Speaking of which, there is another canard which I have to debunk:

Will Russia declare a full mobilization?

The short answer is no. Unless NATO moves forces into the Ukraine, then all bets are off (but even in that case I doubt that a full mobilization would be needed and, not to mention, rather hard to execute) Furthermore, this question is based on a flawed assumption: that Russia’s so-called “slow progress” is due to lack of manpower (about the “slow progress” see here). That assumption, in turn, is based on two major mistakes: the first it conflates overall manpower with manpower available at any specific moment in time on a specific sector of the line of contact. What matters is not overall numerical superiority, but local superiority, superiority on your main axes of attack/defense. This is how Ze’s MILLION soldier army ended up being defeated with only 1700 KIAs: there never was a million soldiers army anywhere near Zaporozhie in the first place.

Second, the Russians have been fighting this entire SMO with less than 10% of the Russian military and with a 3:1 advantage for the Nazi forces almost everywhere. You could say that the Ukrainians are fighting a positional war while the Russians are fighting a mobile war, counting on their qualitative superiority (in most fields, with a few exceptions – such as counter-battery radars and squad level need for commercial quad-copters similar to the famous DJI Mavic series, see below – and these limited disadvantages are now being quickly addressed).

Yes, I know, there are some LDNR officials who constantly whine about the fact that Russia is not fighting this war the way they would. But with all due respect, it is one thing to be a deputy commander of an LDNR battalion and quite another a specialist in the Russian General Staff with several academies and years of command experience under your belt. Furthermore, the LDNR forces, for all their undisputed heroism, courage and skills do not fight the same war as the Russians. The LDNR forces are fighting to liberate the Donbass, and they have just recently acquired the kind of capabilities needed to even contemplate an operational level offensive. In sharp contrast, the Russians are fighting a strategic war against NATO and the US, so it is no wonder that their notions of what ought to be done differ. Here is just one example:

What about the supposed lack of UAV/drones/quadcopter? Did/will Russia buy UAVs from Iran?

The problem here is that UAV/drones/quads come in all sort of sizes, from truly tiny one which you can fit in the palm of your hand, to large, strategic ones with advanced electronics/optoelectronics/EW/etc. and even weapons of various types. So let’s separate the two.

Example one: a reconnaissance unit from the LDNR forces is tasked with finding out what is happening, or not, behind a small forest. You can use a relatively cheap and simple, off the shelf, DJI Mavic (even a mini model!), which you can send a kilometer or two over the forest and to take a peek what might be hiding inside/behind the trees. If you do not have that Mavic, you have to send a reconnaissance patrol. Going on such a mission is very dangerous, because not only can the Nazis plant all sorts of mines in the forest and under the leaves/grass, they can also set up an ambush (the Ukrainians are pretty good at that). So if you are the commander of this reconnaissance unit, you are going to be absolutely furious that the lack of Mavics forces you to send your soldiers into a very dangerous situation, day after day after day. And if you are young and inexperienced, you are going to blame the Russian military’s procurement system for not sending boxes of Mavics to the LDNR.

So to the question “did the LDNR forces have enough Mavic-type quads before the SMO began?” the answer is “no they did not”. Once the LDNR officials and their supporters raised a big enough stink over that, volunteers from all over Russia began sending quads to the LDNR and things slowly (especially for those who had to risk their lives every day!) began to improve. But this never was the “fault” or “lack of care” from the Russian armed forces whose job is very different.

Now the Russian military has exactly *zero* need for Mavic-type quads. Not only that, but Russia has large stores of all sorts of advanced UAVs (see here for details). As for the Russian military, it is not in the business of supplying LDNR forces with whatever they might need, it is in the business of fighting a war against the consolidated West, this requires a totally different kind of kit and training than the LDNR forces.

Example two: Russia needs long range UAVs to detect Ukrainian columns on the move, force concentrations, assembly position, battle formations, etc. The good news is that Russia has plenty of those more advanced UAVs. These advanced UAVs do not fly 1-8km in distance, but for hundreds of kilometers and their flight time is not counted in minutes, but in tens of hours. In this kind of warfare, Mavics are totally useless.

Is it possible that Russia might buy some Iranian UAVs?

I would say that it is not very likely, but quite possible. Why? First, Russia and Iran are (informal but strong) allies and the Iranians would probably love to test their gear in real, modern, warfare conditions (Syria, Iraq or Yemen do not qualify). Second, the Iranians have superb UAVs, not necessarily better than Russian ones (it really depends on the mission and what the rest of the forces are doing), but very good ones indeed. Since Russia is flush with cash thanks to the Western sanctions, Russia could do worse than purchase an X number of Iranian UAV and use them (or even give them to the LDNR). Again, I don’t think that this will happen because of a simple problem: the more primitive a UAV is, the more you can use commercial, off the shelf, equipment (this is what the (in)famous Bayraktars are – assembled off the shelf commercial hardware). But the more advanced a UAV is, the more it needs to be able to “talk” to a lot of highly specialized networks and equipment, most of which are secret to begin with.

[Sidebar: I happen to personally fly both cinematic quads – a DJI Mavic mini – and first-person-view (FPV) acrobatic/freestyle quads and, as a result, even a private civilian like myself can have equipment which could be used in a reconnaissance situation like the one I describe above. This is not different than LDNR forces using family and consumer radios (FRS and GMRS) to communicate, or the purchase of commercial laser rangefinders, GPS/GLONASS/GNSS navigation equipment and the like. Nowadays recreational and commercial microelectronics are so capable, that you can buy most of what a reconnaissance unit might need online and for relatively cheap. And if your pockets are deep enough, you even purchase and get all sorts of very good thermal imaging systems. So what the LDNR forces needed the most, is simply money to get all that good stuff. Some of this is already being built in Russia but, if needed, Russia can get it all from China directly or through Kazakhstan. For the LDNR the issue was always money, and this is why the Mayor of Omsk is asking for donations at the end of this open letter above]

In sharp contrast to the LDNR forces, the Russian military has plenty of money and capabilities which the LDNR can only dream about, including a high tech military industrial base which dwarfs anything Iran might have.

Conclusion:

Initially, the Russians got absolutely destroyed in the propaganda war, at least that was true during the early months of the SMO. Now this entire narrative is tanking (as evidenced, for example, this interview of Jeffrey Sachs on Democracy Now! or this video by Tucker Carlson). Of course, the Neocons and the “extreme center” of the Uniparty (call them Republicrats or Demolicans – same difference) are still in deep denial and they are going through all the usual stages of grief (how is that headline: “German minister vows to back Ukraine ‘no matter what voters think’”?). My biggest fear is that this hate-saturated narcissistic imbeciles will do something really dumb and trigger a much larger conflict. The Kremlin is acutely aware of this risk, and this is why the Russians are only using about 10% of their current capabilities (that is before even a mobilization).

Most of the nonsense we now hear about the Ukraine (all the plain silly theories) is now quickly falling apart. All the hysterics of the Russian 6th columnists (à la Girkin-Strelkov & Co.) have failed to force the Russian General Staff to fight the war like the 6th column would have preferred. Instead of listening to these “allislosters”, Putin decided to listen to his generals. What a surprise!

Furthermore, as Putin and others have repeated innumerable times, the SMO is going pretty much according to plan (besides the undeniable mistakes made in specific locations, like moving Russian forces in columns towards the Gostomel airfield without first suppressing the Ukrainian artillery and diversionary forces along the road; but the Kiev faint itself, however, was a total success and it achieved all its goals). All the recent developments further show that Russia will methodically achieve all of her objectives in the coming months (though the denazification of Europe will, of course, take longer, not to mention the need to denazify the USA itself).

***

Finally, since this will be a long week-end, I leave you again with some beautiful music I love.

First, I want to introduce you to an Argentinian singer and guitarist whom I consider to be the most brilliant musician of traditional Argentinian (gaucho) music: Eduardo Falu. Listen to this track, the song, entitled “Zamba de la Candelaria“, is absolutely beautiful (as are the lyrics for those who understand Spanish) and his guitar playing is nothing short of stellar (the other two songs in this video are also quite beautiful, I think)

Next, I want to introduce you to one of my absolutely favorite US Jazz/Improvised music group, named Oregon. In this tune, entitled “Hand in Hand“, you will hear one of their most beautiful, yet understated, compositions. The way the harmony “moves” here is so poignantly beautiful! Also, listen to Ralph Towner‘s guitar solo and try to sing the melody over his improvisations, and you will discover a very beautiful “improvised contrapunctus”. I had the privilege to once see Oregon at the Blues Alley in Washington DC and it was for sure one of the most amazing performances I have ever seen.

Next, a beautiful composition by Larry Coryell which he interprets here with the (always brilliant) Joe Beck and Joe Scofield entitled “Thurman Munson“. This is also a very understated composition, but it gives ample opportunities for some truly beautiful and poignant improvisations (including some beautifully weaved through polytonalities).

Next, I want to introduce you to a French guitarist named Pierre Bensusan. The guy is an absolute genius both as a composer and as in interpreter. Today I want to share one of my favorite compositions by Bensusan entitled simply “4am“. I hope that you will enjoy it as much as I do!

Lastly, I want to introduce you to a ridiculously talented group from, I think, New York: they are called the “Nation of Five“. Here they play one of my favorite tunes, called “The Saga of Harrison Crabfeathers” aka “Poem For No. 15.” composed by the Jazz pianist Steve Kuhn. It is a most interesting Jazz waltz built around distinct keys (this is modal music at its best!) and which includes a very original use of something called a “hemiola“, that is “the articulation of two bars in triple time as if they were three bars in duple time” or, to quote Wikipedia’s fuller definition “a hemiola is the ratio 3:2. In pitch, hemiola refers to the interval of a perfect fifth. In rhythm, hemiola refers to three beats of equal value in the time normally occupied by two beats. This makes the improvisation over this melody both very interesting and somewhat challenging. I just love to explore all the possibilities this 1972 composition offers for improvisation and this is a fantastic performance by all these musicians!

MTV and and so-called “conservatories” have tried their best to stamp out real, improvised, music, and they failed. What a joy for the rest of us, no?

Enjoy and have a wonderful week-end!

Lone Wolf on September 01, 2022 · at 1:23 am EST/EDT

Addendum
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https://www.imetatronink.com/

Wednesday, August 31, 2022

In War, The Losers Lie

Over the course of the Ukraine War – or the “Special Military Operation”, as Russia is careful to term it – I have confidently concluded that one of the essential sources for reasonably accurate information regarding the far-flung combat operations in the theater is … The Russian Federation Ministry of Defense daily briefing.

Of course, those inclined to support Ukrainian perspectives on this war immediately rise up in arms at such a suggestion. “How could you possibly believe anything the Russians have to say? They lie about everything!”

Well, I’m not typing out this brief missive in an attempt to disabuse the Russia-haters of the world of their fondest prejudices. That would be a fool’s errand, at best. But I will briefly explain the rationale I have employed to reach the conclusion that, in fact, the most accurate picture of ongoing Ukraine War combat operations available to the general public is, indeed, coming from the daily Russian MoD briefings.

First of all, I want to freely acknowledge that there is no way they can always be correct. The very nature of battle is fraught with inherent challenges to accuracy. Squad, company, and battalion commanders naturally inflate their successes and downplay their failures. Air defense crews and fighter pilots observe a clear hit on an aircraft, watch it fall to the full extent of their perspective, but sometimes fail to see that it somehow managed to recover before crashing into the ground, and then miraculously limped back to its base. These sorts of things are an unavoidable and not all that uncommon reality, and contribute substantially to the pervasive “fog of war” in any conflict.

Fully accurate data for a war takes years to emerge, and even then can be corrupted by inaccuracies that are never detected and corrected. So the best one can hope for in the midst of a war is a reasonably accurate “rough sketch” of what is really happening at any given time, as well as a constantly coalescing picture of what has really been happening over the course of time.

To achieve the latter, one must also examine the positional maps, taking into account which strategic locations are being won and lost, and what the general trajectory of operations suggests as reflected in the way the lines of contact move and evolve.

But the one thing, above all, that should be kept in mind is that, as a general rule, the side that is really winning is much more likely to tell the truth, and the side that is losing is, far more often than not, lying through its teeth.

Of course, this hardly means that the winning side always tells the truth. They may have very good reasons for lying, obfuscating, or simply having inaccurately ascertained what the truth really is.

On the other hand, the losing side, at the first realization they’re in over their heads, starts lying some of the time, and as their prospects deteriorate further, they quickly resort to lying nearly all the time.

Indeed, it becomes imperative to do so, both to shield troop morale from the full truth, and (as attested very notably in this particular war) also to reassure allies and benefactors that, despite a few “minor setbacks”, everything is actually going “according to plan”, and glorious victory is “just around the corner”, if only you keep helping us out with more weapons, guns, ammo, victuals, and coin to pay our ever-dwindling numbers of soldiers.

Also, it must be appreciated that, in any war, even a lopsided one, the dominating power is bound to make stupid mistakes on occasion, and incur an embarrassing setback that he will desire to deny, spin, or otherwise downplay. Similarly, if the weaker army pulls off a rare triumph, he will exaggerate its magnitude and relative significance, and will predictably forecast “much more of the same” going forward.

For these reasons, the determination of “things as they really are” in wartime can be a complex calculus – but nevertheless not outside the capability of the experienced observer/analyst to ascertain to a reasonably accurate degree.

And make no mistake, to any reasonably objective and knowledgeable observer/analyst not intellectually crippled by mindless bigotry or riven with ulterior motives, the Russians are winning this war, and winning it big. And therefore their natural inclination will be to tell the truth in order to lend weight to that perception in the public mind.

The mountains of propaganda that have dominated western media reports and the “expert analysis” of its stable of arms-manufacturer-funded think-tank monkeys and talking-head “retired generals-for-hire” have, unfortunately, irredeemably tainted the perceptions of those for whom these voices constitute their only sources of information.

I wish there were a way to scrape the scales of darkness from their eyes, but alas, I have concluded it is more or less futile at this juncture. For most, not even “settled history” many years down the road will dissuade them from resolutely clinging to their most cherished delusions.

In any case, as pertains to the regular daily briefings of the Russian Ministry of Defense, those who follow them closely, as I do, will observe that they are typically detailed, not apparently prone to exaggeration, and delivered in a totally matter-of-fact fashion – no superfluous commentary about “glorious victories” or “trampling the enemy under our feet”, etc. “Just the facts, ma’am.”

Furthermore, it must be understood that the Russians are also in a far superior position to know what has actually occurred on the battlefield. They have access not only to high-resolution satellite-based imagery, but more importantly to the countless hours of video shot every single day from their hundreds (thousands?) of loitering observation drones that are a constant fixture over almost every engagement of appreciable size.

That said, it is important to understand that, for obvious reasons, they’re absolutely not going to permit the general public and the OSINT practitioners of the world to have access to imagery as they see it. Instead, they consistently downgrade the resolution of shared video and still photos, and employ edits to remove any video footage they deem to be “privileged information” – such as what weapon is being used for an airstrike, or the angle from which it came.

As for the Ukrainians, it is apparent they no longer have a significant drone capability over the battlefield, and are therefore “flying blind” in a great many instances.

In conclusion, all perceptions of battle are distorted to some degree. Some things which are claimed to have happened may, on occasion, be substantiated with incontrovertible evidence of some kind: conclusive imagery, multiple credible witnesses, or the frank admission of the other side to an effectively undeniable loss or setback.

I would roughly estimate that the perception of truth of any given event, under the best of conditions – even for the respective combatants armed with far superior intelligence and imagery – probably never exceeds 90% accuracy. The general public, using open-source intelligence and reasonably reliable on-the-ground reporting, can optimistically hope for maybe 60% – 70% accuracy.

For these reasons, the acquisition of a knowledge of “things as they really are” in war is never an exact science. But it is an art that can consistently produce conclusions highly consonant with the objective facts of the matter.

Posted by William Schryver at 5:50 PM
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Lone Wolf

151 Comments

Snow Leopard on August 31, 2022 · at 11:00 pm EST/EDT

Andrei: many thanks for an excellent situation report. Its most valuable feature for me was the overall picture you portrayed of Russia being so together and solid in its approach. An enormously reassuring news assessment. It calmed me down and settled my gut nicely.
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 11:51 am EST/EDT
  
  Glad to be of service! :-)
  Cheers!
Robert Shule on August 31, 2022 · at 11:00 pm EST/EDT

Asia times posted an interesting article* about this “deep operations” strategy that Russia is possibly pursuing in the Ukraine. Basically, the strategy is to string out an opponent over a very long front so as to diminish their critcal mass for defense. The down side is the offensive side is also strung out forcing it to advance in small, but secure increments. I’m no expert, but it makes sense to me and it looks like that is what is happening.

As to the current Ukrainian offensive, wait until Z’ pulls out his weapon he used to play piano with, and then the Russian forces (and everyone else) will be in for some real shock and awe.

*https://asiatimes.com/2022/08/ukraine-the-situation-august-26-2022/
Anton Gorbatow on August 31, 2022 · at 11:02 pm EST/EDT

Ukraine’s version of the TET offensive has failed miserably.

I use to own an Oregon album in the early 80’s.

To fight the rich and powerful (and insane) is a noble thing to do and is appreciated by the followers of your blog.
- richardbraverman on September 01, 2022 · at 1:52 am EST/EDT
  
  keep your powder dry and stay frosty
  
  the time is drawing near in which every man will have to take a stand
  - Al-Kaftarbaz on September 01, 2022 · at 3:07 am EST/EDT
    
    When the Zionists invaded Palestine, it was not time for every man to take a stand?
    
    When the Yemenis were starving under siege (as they still are), it was not time for every man to take a stand?
    
    When ISIS was unleashed on the world, no?
    
    Afghanistan? Libya? Lebanon? No?
    
    But when the war involves Europeans, it is time for _every man_ to take a stand, yes?
    - Dane on September 01, 2022 · at 4:03 am EST/EDT
      
      One can elect to be bitter over real and perceived wrongs, or be happy that another human being that was blind now see. You can chase away a new ally with the bitterness of all the wrongs in history *or* rejoice in the knowledge that truth really starts to spread and awaken people(finally).
      
      You´re an adult so only you can pick your path, bitterness or hope.
      - Al-Kaftarbaz on September 01, 2022 · at 7:14 am EST/EDT
        
        Dane mate, for thousands of years people have thought this or that war was going to change everything. Every poor naive soul that the Catholic church sent to die for nothing in the Crusades probably thought they were going to awaken the people of the world and save the world and whatnot. Even all the way up to WWII, millions of deluded people in the West thought that by defeating Germany they were going to bring eternal peace and prosperity to the world or whatever.
        
        Nothing is going to change by this minor skirmish between Russia and a third-rate nothing like the Ukraine. Nobody is going to be awakened in the West. You can take that to the bank.
        
        Indeed as an adult, one needs to accept certain bitter truths about the world. Hope right now is extremely naive. If you think that nuclear war is some far-off fantasy, think again. It is closer now than it ever was during the Cold War.
        
        jojo on September 01, 2022 · at 7:37 pm EST/EDT
        
        “Every poor naive soul that the Catholic church sent to die for nothing in the Crusades”
        
        The Crusaders looted and destroyed the Eastern Christian/Byzantine lands. The cities they attacked and occupied and the money and treasures they stole were not built nor created by the Muslims. Actually much of the art they stole and took back is said to have inspired and kicked off the Renaissance. Meanwhile the Byzantine Empire was weakened, and this likely made it easier (or quicker) to eventually fall to the Muslims and the Ottoman Empire. So the leaders and governments of the west and Catholics actual profited from it all. They weakened (and killed and looted) their rival and brought back money, treasures, art, books (Greek math, science, philosophy) etc. which was a factor in the Renaissance that followed.
        
        Anarchist on September 01, 2022 · at 9:56 pm EST/EDT
        
        Spot on, I am under impression the west “masses” don’t want to be awaken, intentionally.
        Either that, or collective intellect is all time low, probably non existent, a regression of mind, if you will.
        Funny thing, you will often hear, even on TEEVEE, “trust nobody” “challenge everything”, in reality it’s just a spinless blob, busy carrying around their disfigured bodies, and wretched souls. Pathetic.
        Actually, a result of centuries of constant brain hammering.
        
        The money handlers absolutely don’t care if nukes fly, because they live in their own delusion, and salivating at the prospect of eliminating 8 bill people from Earth.
        
        Al-Kaftarbaz on September 01, 2022 · at 11:04 pm EST/EDT
        
        Collective intellect being at an all-time low is definitely possible, but I think many people underestimate how powerful and deep modern propaganda has become.
        
        Propaganda has become an extremely sophisticated and well-developed science. To put it simply, they know exactly what to say, when to say it and how to say it to get the exact reaction from people. Over a long period of time, they have molded people into exactly what they want.
        
        And perhaps the biggest trick of modern propaganda is that nobody in the West is aware that they are being “propagandized” or basically brain-washed. They think their thoughts are their own, when the truth is that there is a giant machine that is producing and propagating the seeds of thoughts in the minds of the masses.
        
        And the West is the only side that has the ear of all of mankind. Russia, Iran, etc, can at best reach the ears of their own people, but on the world stage, when they want to get a message out, it is framed as “Russian state media said this” or “Iranian state media said that”, whereas when the Western media says something it is never framed in that way, but rather as “credible, serious journalistic organizations whose integrity and non-bias has been proven beyond any doubt, like CNN or BBC or New York Times said this or that.”
        
        And while Russian and Iranian media can barely influence people’s thoughts on the world stage, the Western media influences the thoughts of Iranians and Russians on a daily basis, and with great ease.
        
        When I hear some people say that the West is run by idiots because Biden or Scott Morrison are idiots, I am flabbergasted. The people who really run the West are waging a very complex and sophisticated war on mankind all over the planet, a war that the average person does not even know is happening.
        
        The average Iranian thinks their war is with Israel, and the average Russian right now imagines that the Ukronazi is the enemy. This is all divide and conquer. Everyone has to be kept in a constant state of war and hostility with their neighbors, to keep them busy.
    - Shivaram on September 01, 2022 · at 4:08 am EST/EDT
      
      When isis was unleashed even the countries nearby did not take a stand. Sad.
      - jojo on September 02, 2022 · at 12:05 am EST/EDT
        
        ISIS emerged in U.S.-controlled Iraq and when ISIS were taking over Iraqi army/weapons depots, there were even reports that the Iraqi army was ordered not to interfere. ISIS was used to create an excuse for U.S. entering the Syria war. They staged fake decapitations before a green screen of military assets (all “victims” had military background, including military reporters, and it could be seen in the videos that there were multiple sources of lighting, so studio done, with a martian-like landscape) to engineer an excuse (and get public approval) to put U.S. soldiers in Syria.
        But you also have to put some responsibility on Syria itself for losing control of its borders at the beginning of the western-backed uprising in 2011, and even the years prior to that. If Syria had defended itself from the very start, if their intelligence services had uncovered the plotting and infiltration, the western and Turkish backed terrorists wouldn’t have had all their preparations finished in Syria, such as tunnel networks with militants and weapons inside the borders.
  - Kazek on September 01, 2022 · at 3:59 pm EST/EDT
    
    In my country, which is Poland, its not legal anymore to say what I think about this whole operation. Actually we are close to delegalisation of the letter z from our alphabet.
    - The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 4:19 pm EST/EDT
      
      Please don’t lose hope, sooner or later the crazies in power in Warsaw will be replaced by sane(r) people!
    - Prof. Spudd on September 01, 2022 · at 10:02 pm EST/EDT
      
      Which sounds ridiculous considering you use “z” a LOT in Polish. :-)
    - Mann Friedmann on September 05, 2022 · at 9:50 pm EST/EDT
      
      I was hoping that the Russian SMO would expand their use of the Latin alphabet to include all letters, so that the Collective Waste would punk their own language!
Jimmy Flies By on August 31, 2022 · at 11:22 pm EST/EDT

A super long weekend if you’re starting Wednesday! Enjoie!

David Sylvian sings September and Orpheus

https://fivegunswest.blogspot.com/2022/08/september-soon-orpheus-sings-goodbye.html
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 11:52 am EST/EDT
  
  Alas no, I am still at work. But I decided to post this early to not have to scramble today and Friday.
Gary on August 31, 2022 · at 11:53 pm EST/EDT

When I lived in Russia for two years (Irkutsk) every important meeting or seminar ended with a small musical presentation. Always to remind us to enjoy and rejoice in Slavic culture. Always loved Dvorak’s 9th.
- Al-Kaftarbaz on September 01, 2022 · at 1:47 am EST/EDT
  
  “Initially, the Russians got absolutely destroyed in the propaganda war..”
  
  The western propaganda war is very sophisticated and complex.
  
  https://english.news.cn/20220901/669866ccdbb743789b5dd9d901bccc75/c.html — “Russia, Iran finalize agreement on bilateral cooperation”
  
  The Iranian FM was in Moscow yesterday finalizing some agreements. Generally speaking, relations between Iran and Russia are moving forward very quickly.
  
  Meanwhile, the West keeps pushing the “Russia buying drones from Iran narrative”. How do Russian analysts react? Let’s just say that Saker’s tone here has been the kindest towards Iran that I have seen. The average Russian reaction to this narrative is to put Iran and Iranian technology down in the most harsh possible manner — which is only natural. They want to say that Russia is a superpower that does not need to buy technology from anyone, much less a third world country like Iran.
  
  The Iranians are well aware of this reaction from the Russians. And as I said, the Saker and Andrei Martyanov have been relatively gentle, but even their reaction would come off as very degrading and humiliating to Iranians.
  
  So, while Amirabdollahian meets with Lavrov to expand ties, Russian analysts mock Iranian technological capability and the Iranians take offense.
  
  That is some good propaganda, I would say.
  
  I personally would have preferred it if the Saker had said something like: “so what if Russia is buying drones from Iran? Iranian drones are excellent and they’ve been proven on the field in Yemen, Syria, etc.” — rather than outright stating that Yemen and Syria (ie. the only wars Iran has been engaged in recently) don’t even count as real wars and hence the insinuation that Iranian drones are rubbish and not worth Russia’s while.
  
  In terms of the propaganda war, the West is still light years ahead, and their simple divide and conquer strategy worked very easily here, because they are playing on the Russians’ desire to prove themselves as a superpower that doesn’t need anyone’s help to beat the Ukraine, much less the help of a Middle Eastern third rate power.
  
  It is ironic really. The Iranian and Russian side still see propaganda as basically shouting from the rooftops that “we are winning in Yemen” and “we are winning in the Ukraine” respectively. Where is the finesse? Where is the deeper understanding of human nature?
  - Soleii on September 01, 2022 · at 11:08 am EST/EDT
    
    To Al-Kaftarbaz
    
    You have created excellent posts here. What I would like to offer you for consideration is threefold.
    
    First, I have directly asked Andrei to clarify his thoughts here when suggesting that what Iran has been doing in Syria, etc, is ” not a real war” and, hence, whatever equipment they have produce would, by his inference, not be adequate to the battles going on in Ukr which, by his assumption, is a “real war.” See my post below that is directed to him. In essence, I have asked for his evidentiary basis for the claim. Let’s see if and what he answers.
    
    Second, I believe that the conclusion that you have drawn is too strong. Here is what you stated:
    
    Iranian drones are excellent and they’ve been proven on the field in Yemen, Syria, etc.” — rather than outright stating that Yemen and Syria (ie. the only wars Iran has been engaged in recently) don’t even count as real wars and hence .
    
    Andrei’s claim neither states nor insinuates that they are rubbish. This is too strong. What he is insinuating is only that they are not up to the demands of “a real war” such as what is occurring in Ukr. Again, let’s see if and what he answers. In many respects, the wars in the countries that I itemized in my post below are much more sophisticated than what is going on in Ukr.
    
    Third, some thoughts on propaganda. You said:
    
    “The average Russian reaction to this narrative is to put Iran and Iranian technology down in the most harsh possible manner … The Iranians are well aware of this reaction from the Russians. And as I said, the Saker and Andrei Martyanov have been relatively gentle, but … They want to say that Russia is a superpower that does not need to buy technology from anyone, much less ”
    
    It is unclear to me that the Iranians would, in fact, take such derogatory statements as “degrading and humiliating” to them. Naah. I just don’t think so. The general who replaced Soleimani, who I affectionately call Red Hot Chili Pepper, would most likely view such comments as noise, not as signal. Understand? As idle babble, not as statements carrying a valuable content or a payload of truth. This is the veritable nature of propaganda. Chili Pepper will brush it off like the occasional fly at an early spring picnic, as would every knowledgeable Iranian.
    
    Finally, I would like to share with you a truly memorable picture that says everything there is to say about the relationship between Putin and Leader Ali. Look on internet for the date that Putin recently visited Iran. Then scroll back in the Saker analyses list to that date or a little thereafter. I think it was before Andrei returned from his leave of absence. Says it all. It even says that Putin views Iran as an equal and in a spiritual journey together for all of humanity. Anyone who thinks that Iran is a ” middle east third rate power” is just detached from reality. Their babble means nothing, says nothing, is worth nothing, and carries no Truth payload. Even to call them “the middle west” is no longer valid. They are West Asia and proud of it.
  - The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 2:05 pm EST/EDT
    
    The Iranians are well aware of this reaction from the Russians. And as I said, the Saker and Andrei Martyanov have been relatively gentle, but even their reaction would come off as very degrading and humiliating to Iranians.
    
    Oh come on! how many SSNs has Iran built? How many combat aircraft? How many passenger aircraft (or engines)?? How about the Iranian air defenses – can you seriously compare them with what Russia has???
    I have been accused of many sins, but being anti-Iranian is something new.
    
    Frankly, I am pretty confident that you, for starters, are not Iranian (at most an exile).
    - Al-Kaftarbaz on September 01, 2022 · at 9:03 pm EST/EDT
      
      You are both misinterpreting my comment. When I say Iranians in this context I mean the average Iranian person like myself.
      
      I know that General Qaani is not going to take offense at this little issue, Soleii.
      
      The whole point that I was trying to make was that while at the state level the two countries are trying to forge a closer relationship, Western propaganda is manipulating the average people of both sides and essentially turning them against each other.
      
      As an Iranian who was born and raised in Iran and last visited Iran a few months ago, I found the Saker’s remarks about Iranian drones to be belittling and offensive, thus, the Saker and Al-Kaftarbaz are an example of a Russian and Iranian that were directly affected by this recent propaganda effort by the West.
      
      Where you got the idea that I was accusing you of being anti-Iranian is beyond me, Saker.
      
      Cheers
      - jojo on September 02, 2022 · at 12:35 am EST/EDT
        
        Syria’s being attacked by U.S.-made Israeli jets and weapons and Yemen is being attacked by U.S. made Saudi jets and bombs, so these wars do have high tech weapons being used. Meanwhile even Russian military experts say Russian leadership is behind on acknowledging how important drones are.
        
        Al-Kaftarbaz on September 02, 2022 · at 1:11 am EST/EDT
        
        “Although Iran’s defence sector is far from state of the art overall compared to that of Russia itself, unmanned aircraft remain a leading Iranian strength and an area which has been largely neglected in the Russian Military. Iranian drones have been extensively combat tested in Syria and Iraq, flying thousands of missions primarily using more conservative non-stealth designs such as the Shahed 129 – an analogue to the American Predator and Chinese Wing Loong II.”
        
        “Iran has more experience deploying high performance stealth drones in combat than any other country, with these representing an asset which only the United States and China have equivalents to..”
        
        “A series of major advances for Iranian drone development began in the early 2010s, after a successful Iranian electronic attack on a CIA-operated Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel stealth drone over its airspace in 2011 led to the aircraft being recovered in tact and used as the basis for a series of flying wing stealth drones. The RQ-170 may well have been the stealthiest military aircraft in the world at the time, although Iranian sources claimed their domestic derivatives surpassed the U.S. original. The Saegheh reconnaissance aircraft and the Shahed 171 attack aircraft were earlier flying wing designs based on the RQ-170, with the former proving extremely survivable in some of the densest air defence environments on the planet when one penetrated Israeli airspace in February 2018. The aircraft evaded multiple attempts by Israel’s U.S.-made Patriot missile batteries to neutralise it, and had to be brought down by gunfire at close range where its stealth capabilities did not provide protection. Former head of Mossad Danny Yatom stated regarding the incident: “It was a sophisticated operation. The UAV was almost an exact replica of the U.S. drone that fell in their territory. If it had exploded somewhere in Israel, it may not have been possible to identify it as an Iranian manufactured drone.””
        
        https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/dangerous-iranian-drones-bad-news-ukraine
        
        Here’s the main points as far as I can see:
        
        1. As far as I know, Iranian drones are some of the best in the world.
        
        2. Even if Iranian drones were garbage cans with wings attached to them, the wise move in terms of the developing friendly relations between Russia and Iran would be to react to this specific instance of Western propaganda by saying that Iranian drones are good and Russia is happy to have a friend like Iran providing them to her.
        
        3. The reaction by ordinary Russians (ie. We don’t need no stinkin rubbish bins from Iran, essentially) is going to upset ordinary Iranians who see Russians as kindred spirits faced with the same unjust aggression by the West.
        
        4. The Western media is now saying that the Iranian drones have been failing: https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/putin-is-angry-russia-received-first-faulty-batch-of-iranian-drones/ — the writer of this article “Maya Carlin is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel.”
        
        5. The weapons embargo on Iran has only recently been lifted after a long time and Iran is looking to sell its military technologies. Clearly, certain people affiliated with Israel don’t want this to happen, so they are claiming that Iranian drones are faulty.
        
        6. Coupled together with Russian analysts saying that Iranian drones are rubbish and Russia doesn’t even need them, leads us to the last point:
        
        7. Potential Iranian drone sales on the world market are going to be affected. And while Amirabdollahian, Qaani, et al may not directly take offense at Russian analysts declaring Iranian drones to be subpar, they will definitely not be thrilled at the prospect of Iranian drone sales going down the drain because Russian analysts have been echoing and confirming what the 1945 article above has stated, eg. that Iranian drones are rubbish.
        
        So, Saker, while you may not be anti-Iranian, you are not doing Iran (one of Russia’s biggest allies right now) any favors by bashing Iranian drone technology.
        
        And as I said before, this propaganda scenario is playing on the Russians’ desire to prove themselves as a superpower, especially a technological superpower that does not need help from anyone, much less help from a country which Western audiences know as a third rate developing country.
        
        It is quiet important for Iran and Russia to develop a strong friendship right now, considering what is coming on the horizon. I hope you understand and agree, Saker.
ram on August 31, 2022 · at 11:55 pm EST/EDT

It is anecdotal, but this just happened this morning. So I’ll repeat it, and you can take it for what it is worth. You can be absolutely sure it is true since it has been censored twice now on other platforms known for financial news.

I just received a message from my friends close to the action in Romania near the border of Ukraine. They are evacuating and taking everything they can carry in their well equipped with communications gear and remote sensing equipment trucks. They gather “ground truths” for a number of interested parties. They don’t expect their house and properties (deep in mountain valleys) to be intact when and if they return. Clearly they have seen a major escalation. Major means at serious risk of provoking a thermonuclear war. They are heading well out of Romania, and possibly out of Europe.
It will take them a few days to get to a (relatively) “safe” distance.

If anybody else has some insights into what is happening on the ground, please post.
- cezar on September 01, 2022 · at 5:38 am EST/EDT
  
  I’m from Romania. I spoke yesterday with a colleague from Baia Mare (Northern RO – Border with UA). Nothing about such a situation.
  In the East (Budjak – Danube Delta) also quiet.
  I’ve been at Navodari (Blacke Sea Coast) for a week. Only some F-16’s buzzing above (normal patrols from M. Kogalniceanu or Fetesti).
  I’m not going anywhere, I’ll just go to work on Monday.
- Brother Ma on September 01, 2022 · at 6:31 am EST/EDT
  
  Can you please be a little less cryptic? Are they Romanian army or intelligence or US/UK? Or are they real Romanian civilians doing intelligence /military work? Are you talking about their bases or real homes ? You said they are even leaving Romania…
  - Tony Kaku on September 01, 2022 · at 6:46 pm EST/EDT
    
    Camper van with smartphone and radio (remote sensing equipment). Like that Scottish guy with bicycle and cat.
Grieved on September 01, 2022 · at 12:47 am EST/EDT

Dear Saker

We have always disagreed about the information war. You have always thought the Russians were losing it, and I have always thought they weren’t even fighting it – certainly not in the words or terms of the opponent – but instead changing entire paradigms of thought regarding the subject matter.

I’ve proposed that this positioning of Russia defeats the original “attack” by elevating the terms of discussion to a new level, at which they belong to Russia rather than to the enemy, and which furthermore mean that the discussion must now be engaged in Russia’s terms.

Before you go on your (very long!!!) weekend, allow me to quote your own words:

“Initially, the Russians got absolutely destroyed in the propaganda war, at least that was true during the early months of the SMO. Now this entire narrative is tanking (as evidenced, for example, this interview of Jeffrey Sachs on Democracy Now! or this video by Tucker Carlson).”

Can we agree that the changing of the narrative here, and the “winning” of this propaganda battle happened through the actions of the west and not through the actions of Russia? Sachs and Carlson were western responses to real changed dynamics, and not agents of Russia planting propaganda words.

~~

Don’t ever stop being anxious because Russia seems not to have the repartee to counter the low-level lies of the enemy in his own terms. I will continue to maintain that Russia doesn’t counter words with words, but instead acts to change entire paradigms that render those words meaningless.

I suppose it’s like saying you don’t go into battle on the field that your enemy has drawn up, but instead you shape the field to your liking and then proceed.

My 2 cents, with much affection and regard…
- Theophilus on September 01, 2022 · at 2:40 am EST/EDT
  
  I agree that the Russians do not waste their time with a popular propaganda war in or with the Western media beause it is bought and paid for. But they have for years now, largely through Putin and Lavrov’s speeches, conducted an information mostly aimed at the world’s diplomats. They have consistently spoken the truth. They say what they mean and mean what they say.
  That this war has to a great extent been successful is evidenced by widespread failure of the Western sanctions war. A notable example is the reaction of India. Not only have they refused to bow to western demands but they have had the courage to say why. It has also revealed itself in the relative failure of the West to get its own way in the United Nations. The acid of truth is doing its work.
  This success is filtering across to some of the more independant western journalists like Tucker Carlson and it is undermining the confidence of the general run of the corrupt cowardly and lazy and forcing them to qualify their lies quite a bit.
  - Lisa Franklin on September 01, 2022 · at 6:42 am EST/EDT
    
    Well said Theophilus. I agree wholeheartedly. ‘The acid of truth is doing its work’-I like that.
Lone Wolf on September 01, 2022 · at 12:51 am EST/EDT

@ Saker

Western weapon deliveries to the Ukraine

This is one of the biggest canards in this war. Today, I will deal only with one aspect: the planned delivery of ex-Soviet aircraft to the Ukraine. Basically, this is utter nonsense. Like with ANY advanced weapons system, combat aircraft need all of the following things to be effective:

They need to be fully integrated into a combined arms operation.
They need to be operated by a highly trained crews.
They need to be used in sufficient numbers to achieve any meaningful effect, which in the case of the Ukraine means real military airfields, not dirt roads, highways or field refueling stations.
They need to be maintained/supported by a complex and advanced supply chain and qualified specialists.
—————————————————

Thanks for making that point clear. Again.

No matter how many times gets repeated, the “fully integrated into a combined arms operation” doesn’t sink.

“Wonder weapons” can be used to terrorize (not much) the civilian population, not to win the war.
——————————————

Now, just to clarify: did the Ukrainians take a few villages and positions? Yes. Absolutely. Why? Because the Russians had absolutely NO reason in the world to do what the Nazis do and “stand immobile to their last breath” in a static defensive line. So they did the following:

Where the Ukrainian attack was weak, they used their infantry and armor to beat them back.
Where the Ukrainian attack was strong, they simply moved back, let the Ukrainians advance, and then wiped them off in what can only be called a “turkey shoot” (not to mention a useless butchery).
——————————————————————–

Excellent point.

Of the five points chosen for penetration along the Inhulets river, the point between Andriivka and Lozove was the hardest hit, Ukrainians penetrated 4 kms to Sukhyi Stavok, a destroyed town on the steppe without any cover, tried to get a foothold in Kostromka and Bruskyns’ke, from which they were pushed back.

Been wondering ever since whether the Russian “retreat” was a propos to catch the Ukrainian troops defenseless in the naked steppe.
——————————————–

Will Russia declare a full mobilization?

The short answer is no. Furthermore, this question is based on a flawed assumption: that Russia’s so-called “slow progress” is due to lack of manpower (about the “slow progress” see here).
———————————————————

Thanks for debunking that too. “Military Summary” started the baseless rumor back in July that Russia would start a full mobilization at the beginning of August. I posted a sarcastic reminder to their assertion mid-August, as there were no signs of mobilization at all.

Not in the Russian plans.

Full mobilization means full war, and Russia will by all means avoid getting dragged into a larger war with the Collective West.
———————————————————-

Conclusion:

Initially, the Russians got absolutely destroyed in the propaganda war, at least that was true during the early months of the SMO.
————————–

I was never concerned about that.

The propaganda war against Hezbollah painting them as “terrorists” and adding them to many countries’ lists of terrorists organizations all over the world, has been relentless. The effect on Hezbollah’s credibility has been close to nil.

During the 2006 Summer War, the population of Israel stopped listening/watching their own news sources, tapping to Hezbollah’s TV/online news to follow details of the war as they realized their own government was deceiving them.

I knew it was a matter of time Russia would overcome the negative propaganda war.

Just keep Konanshenkov telling the truth.
——————————————————

Finally, I always wondered if you knew Falu, one of my favorites next to Yupanqui, both high stars in my musical firmament.

Thanks for the update on the “tactical attack,” and the music.

Lone Wolf
- Lone Wolf on September 01, 2022 · at 1:23 am EST/EDT
  
  Addendum
  —————
  
  https://www.imetatronink.com/
  
  Wednesday, August 31, 2022
  
  In War, The Losers Lie
  
  Over the course of the Ukraine War – or the “Special Military Operation”, as Russia is careful to term it – I have confidently concluded that one of the essential sources for reasonably accurate information regarding the far-flung combat operations in the theater is … The Russian Federation Ministry of Defense daily briefing.
  
  Of course, those inclined to support Ukrainian perspectives on this war immediately rise up in arms at such a suggestion. “How could you possibly believe anything the Russians have to say? They lie about everything!”
  
  Well, I’m not typing out this brief missive in an attempt to disabuse the Russia-haters of the world of their fondest prejudices. That would be a fool’s errand, at best. But I will briefly explain the rationale I have employed to reach the conclusion that, in fact, the most accurate picture of ongoing Ukraine War combat operations available to the general public is, indeed, coming from the daily Russian MoD briefings.
  
  First of all, I want to freely acknowledge that there is no way they can always be correct. The very nature of battle is fraught with inherent challenges to accuracy. Squad, company, and battalion commanders naturally inflate their successes and downplay their failures. Air defense crews and fighter pilots observe a clear hit on an aircraft, watch it fall to the full extent of their perspective, but sometimes fail to see that it somehow managed to recover before crashing into the ground, and then miraculously limped back to its base. These sorts of things are an unavoidable and not all that uncommon reality, and contribute substantially to the pervasive “fog of war” in any conflict.
  
  Fully accurate data for a war takes years to emerge, and even then can be corrupted by inaccuracies that are never detected and corrected. So the best one can hope for in the midst of a war is a reasonably accurate “rough sketch” of what is really happening at any given time, as well as a constantly coalescing picture of what has really been happening over the course of time.
  
  To achieve the latter, one must also examine the positional maps, taking into account which strategic locations are being won and lost, and what the general trajectory of operations suggests as reflected in the way the lines of contact move and evolve.
  
  But the one thing, above all, that should be kept in mind is that, as a general rule, the side that is really winning is much more likely to tell the truth, and the side that is losing is, far more often than not, lying through its teeth.
  
  Of course, this hardly means that the winning side always tells the truth. They may have very good reasons for lying, obfuscating, or simply having inaccurately ascertained what the truth really is.
  
  On the other hand, the losing side, at the first realization they’re in over their heads, starts lying some of the time, and as their prospects deteriorate further, they quickly resort to lying nearly all the time.
  
  Indeed, it becomes imperative to do so, both to shield troop morale from the full truth, and (as attested very notably in this particular war) also to reassure allies and benefactors that, despite a few “minor setbacks”, everything is actually going “according to plan”, and glorious victory is “just around the corner”, if only you keep helping us out with more weapons, guns, ammo, victuals, and coin to pay our ever-dwindling numbers of soldiers.
  
  Also, it must be appreciated that, in any war, even a lopsided one, the dominating power is bound to make stupid mistakes on occasion, and incur an embarrassing setback that he will desire to deny, spin, or otherwise downplay. Similarly, if the weaker army pulls off a rare triumph, he will exaggerate its magnitude and relative significance, and will predictably forecast “much more of the same” going forward.
  
  For these reasons, the determination of “things as they really are” in wartime can be a complex calculus – but nevertheless not outside the capability of the experienced observer/analyst to ascertain to a reasonably accurate degree.
  
  And make no mistake, to any reasonably objective and knowledgeable observer/analyst not intellectually crippled by mindless bigotry or riven with ulterior motives, the Russians are winning this war, and winning it big. And therefore their natural inclination will be to tell the truth in order to lend weight to that perception in the public mind.
  
  The mountains of propaganda that have dominated western media reports and the “expert analysis” of its stable of arms-manufacturer-funded think-tank monkeys and talking-head “retired generals-for-hire” have, unfortunately, irredeemably tainted the perceptions of those for whom these voices constitute their only sources of information.
  
  I wish there were a way to scrape the scales of darkness from their eyes, but alas, I have concluded it is more or less futile at this juncture. For most, not even “settled history” many years down the road will dissuade them from resolutely clinging to their most cherished delusions.
  
  In any case, as pertains to the regular daily briefings of the Russian Ministry of Defense, those who follow them closely, as I do, will observe that they are typically detailed, not apparently prone to exaggeration, and delivered in a totally matter-of-fact fashion – no superfluous commentary about “glorious victories” or “trampling the enemy under our feet”, etc. “Just the facts, ma’am.”
  
  Furthermore, it must be understood that the Russians are also in a far superior position to know what has actually occurred on the battlefield. They have access not only to high-resolution satellite-based imagery, but more importantly to the countless hours of video shot every single day from their hundreds (thousands?) of loitering observation drones that are a constant fixture over almost every engagement of appreciable size.
  
  That said, it is important to understand that, for obvious reasons, they’re absolutely not going to permit the general public and the OSINT practitioners of the world to have access to imagery as they see it. Instead, they consistently downgrade the resolution of shared video and still photos, and employ edits to remove any video footage they deem to be “privileged information” – such as what weapon is being used for an airstrike, or the angle from which it came.
  
  As for the Ukrainians, it is apparent they no longer have a significant drone capability over the battlefield, and are therefore “flying blind” in a great many instances.
  
  In conclusion, all perceptions of battle are distorted to some degree. Some things which are claimed to have happened may, on occasion, be substantiated with incontrovertible evidence of some kind: conclusive imagery, multiple credible witnesses, or the frank admission of the other side to an effectively undeniable loss or setback.
  
  I would roughly estimate that the perception of truth of any given event, under the best of conditions – even for the respective combatants armed with far superior intelligence and imagery – probably never exceeds 90% accuracy. The general public, using open-source intelligence and reasonably reliable on-the-ground reporting, can optimistically hope for maybe 60% – 70% accuracy.
  
  For these reasons, the acquisition of a knowledge of “things as they really are” in war is never an exact science. But it is an art that can consistently produce conclusions highly consonant with the objective facts of the matter.
  
  Posted by William Schryver at 5:50 PM
  —————————————————–
  
  Lone Wolf
  - tranquilocomp on September 01, 2022 · at 10:03 am EST/EDT
    
    We don’t know William Schryver and he’s not that famous. His qualification or profession ought to be listed. Whatever it is, no problem, but it’s good to know. Incidentally, Lone Wolf writes a lot about military matters. Does he have direct military experience or is he only a student of the military?
    
    “the side that is really winning is much more likely to tell the truth, and the side that is losing is, far more often than not, lying through its teeth”
    
    What the more honest side does not say also says a lot. Their silence on casualties now indicates there are a lot of Russian casualties – too many to inform, and that the war is uncertain in too many respects. The Russian government is silent on its defeats and is capable of denying them also. When was the last time Putin or someone high in Russia said that the SMO is going “according to plan”? They used this expression a lot when they were fighting for the first major part of the East and winning quickly. They don’t use it today – you don’t hear it now – because this reality today is not “according to plan.” the conquest of the second major half has stalled, maybe advancing 11 miles or less at most, as is reported in the West. Has the MOD given information to be able to compare their advance now with their advance before?
    
    The Ukrainian president addresses his whole country once a week. Putin has not addressed it once since the SMO began. He used to do that before the SMO with regard to Ukraine. It could be a matter of style, or it could be that too many unexpected things have happened and that he is too uncertain about what might happen, and finds it’s better not to say anything.
    
    The quote’s principle can switch momentarily and the “winning side” is Ukraine with regard to the truth of what is said.
    
    “And winning big.”
    
    Yes and no. They’re winning and will win a lot of territory for Russia. This fact was known before the war started…only fools didn’t know it and most of those fools now know. But the SMO is a big disaster too! It’s why Putin has not been able to address his nation for six months already. It’s why they cannot really contradict many things that the other side says. It is why there is a noticeable stalling insofar as their territorial advances are concerned. It is only biased reporters who say that they are not stalled but only protecting civilians, etc., as if they could advance like before otherwise. Yet, they were reportedly doing that (protecting people) in the other half, too, but advanced more quickly. So, Ukraine or the West must be right when it says that the inflow of weapons has changed this war a lot (and that’s something you could know before it happened too).
    - Biggus Dickus on September 01, 2022 · at 3:39 pm EST/EDT
      
      @tranquilocomp
      
      Putin as well as Shoigu have reiterated that the op was going according to plan. Shoigu told that in a recent press briefing as well.
      
      It’s good that Russia doesn’t announce its casualties because no matter how low that number would be, the enemy can use it against Russia
      E.g.: pointing out US casualties in Iraq, Afghanistan as being way lower (well what we know as US casualties is the number that the Pentagon declared)
      
      _elensky makes frequent speeches because he has to manipulate his population and hide the catastrophe at the frontline. Also, he has to show that Ukraine is in a much better position to gain more arms and funding.
      
      The Saker as well as people like Larry Johnson and Andrei Martyanov have pointed with evidence that Russia didn’t move forward not because the op was stalled but because it was more convenient to grind down the entrenched Ukrainians with artillery.
      
      Since you’re making claims about high casualties for Russians and a stalled operation, I’d like to ask on which sources you make these claims.
Pete on September 01, 2022 · at 1:45 am EST/EDT

Personally, I hope the west sends F16s and F15s (yesterday I heard they started training ukies on F18s, but the one ‘expert’ who said that is a known pro-ukraine douche) to Ukraine.
I can’t wait for russian SAMs and fighters tear them a new butthole and the supposed ‘invincibility’ of american warplane is shattered.
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 11:55 am EST/EDT
  
  What I want to see is F-22s and F-35 being “invisible” until they get shot down ;-)
  - Anarchist on September 01, 2022 · at 10:21 pm EST/EDT
    
    That’s why nazis can’t win, because NATerroristO is very careful what to bring into the theater.
    It is ideal scenario for Russians to analyze and test equipment at a leisure pace against the west “marvels”.
    The wicked must go all in to stand a chance, or watch in dismay Titanic’s fall.
Sarajevo man on September 01, 2022 · at 1:56 am EST/EDT

1700 KIA’s!!!
Anyone who ever participated in any war (like me) knows very well that 1700 killed and wounded soldiers in one military operation is catastrophic loss.
It is disaster.
I do not understand those Ukrainians. They let Americans and Anglos pushing them into absolute catastrophe.
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 2:10 pm EST/EDT
  
  Over 2000 KIA if we include the latest figures!
gT on September 01, 2022 · at 2:27 am EST/EDT

The Ukies were dying sitting in their trenches anyway, so the West decided that since the Ukies were dead already the Ukies might as well attack the Russians and then maybe something good, for the West, will come out of it. But alas, the Ukies who were dying are now definitely dead, and there are even fewer Ukies left to replace them. Very strange that these Ukies have not turned on those who command them, they prefer dying, so let them die.
Yrr on September 01, 2022 · at 3:06 am EST/EDT

Dear Saker,
Where do you get that Russians are using less than 10% of their strength ? Can you elaborate, and why not using 20 % please ? That would be easier and still keeping plenty of reserves.
- Soleii on September 01, 2022 · at 9:45 am EST/EDT
  
  To Yrr. You have made a point here that is both sound and valid. You are asking for Andrei’s evidentiary basis for his allegation. Below, i have put this in clearer terms. Let’s see if and what he answers.
  - The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 11:58 am EST/EDT
    
    It is just the ratio of forces involved in the SMO vs the total Russian military manpower. These are both publicly available. I got these figures from official Russian sources but I am sure you can find it in English too (sorry, I don’t have the time to look the sources up myself – maybe somebody else here does?)
    And why not use 20%? Because this is not a manpower intensive kind of war, it is called “special military operation” for that, and a few other, reasons. It is something quite unique which has never been seen before and it will be studied for decades.
r453 on September 01, 2022 · at 3:19 am EST/EDT

The last military summary report yesterday stated the Russia is in danger of being in a tactical caldron in northern Kherson, looked very serious to me, maybe he got it wrong i dont know.?
- Haassaan on September 01, 2022 · at 6:29 am EST/EDT
  
  A smallish group, maybe as little as a few squads,, is risking tactical encirclement trying to hold a position for reasons that are unknown to me. I’d guess it has something to do with the timing of whatever tactical thing they are trying to pull off in that locsl.
  - Rokossovsky on September 02, 2022 · at 2:14 pm EST/EDT
    
    Haassaan & r453:
    
    If you really want to understand that, it happens to be a classic tactic of “mobile defense”. Sadly it was pioneered by the Nazi’s during the Great Patriotic War, but apparently Shoigu has mastered it now as well and is using it against the Amis/Brits/Ukes:
    
    The Devil’s Virtuosos: German Generals at War, 1940-5 – David Downing
    
    “He was fortunate at this juncture to find in General Lucht an infantry commander who understood well
    the principles of panzer defence. The infantry would guard the ‘front-door’, and if occasionally forced to admit an intruder, would endeavour to shut the door behind him. Inside the house 11th Panzer would play the ‘avenger’ role, seeking out the intruder and destroying or ejecting him.” (pg 124)
    
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1978415.The_Devil_s_Virtuosos
    
    Order in Chaos: The Memoirs of General of Panzer Troops ~ Hermann Balck
    
    “The 336th Infantry Division was positioned solid as a rock on the Chir River. Everything depended on it holding fast, even in the most desperate situations. It was the shield and the pivot for all of the operations of the 11th Panzer Division. The 336th understood its mission completely. Showing strong nerves, the 336th mastered every crisis it faced. That made it possible for the 11th Panzer Division to attack the Russians with concentrated force anywhere they broke through. General Lucht never lost his nerve.”
    
    “From 9 December through the 17th the days were all the same. The Russian forces would break through at location X. We would counterattack, and in the evening everything was back to normal.” (pg 301-302)
    
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23368260-order-in-chaos
    
    Those units are not tactically encircled, but are playing the part of the 336 Infantry Division.
    
    It is good to see Russia using all of this military theory pioneered by the West, against the West. In my opinion, the whole Russian SMO has been brilliant, from initially “attacking with so few forces”, to the “feint (maskirovka) against Kiev”, to the “novel artillery war” and now to this chapter of “mobile defense”.
    
    Gen. Shoigu is on his way to becoming the Marshall Zhukov of this generation. IMHO
- Biggus Dickus on September 01, 2022 · at 1:11 pm EST/EDT
  
  Military Summary is good at describing the current situation, but not with its predictions.
  
  What Dima sees are tactical situations, and I believe none of those ‘analysts’ have a better grasp of the situation than the Russian General Staff.
  - The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 9:02 pm EST/EDT
    
    Please do not use that infantile alias anymore
    thank you!
abc123 on September 01, 2022 · at 3:50 am EST/EDT

How is it that Ukraine still flies fighter jets?

From where is UAF sourcing its aircraft?

I was under the impression that virtually all their fighter jets were destroyed at the beginning of the SMO.
- kotromanic on September 01, 2022 · at 6:44 am EST/EDT
  
  I gues they are based in Romania. The Moskva was able to track it thats probably why Nato hat to sink it. Thats probably the reason why snake island was so important cause whoever has it can probably track the flightpath of the jets who cross the borders to attack and return to their nato-base afterwards.
  
  Nato needs the plausible deniablillity for all it’s operations. They want to be able to walk away from this conflict at any given time and pretend that they were never part of it, just gave some arms to ukraine to protect itself.
  
  When they are the ones planing everything the ukrainian forces do in this war.
  They order ukrainian troops around like you do with troops in a computer game…
  How can so called nationalists be so submissive to the US and UK.
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 12:53 pm EST/EDT
  
  They were, but the united West provided the Nazis with a lot of aircraft.
- jojo on September 02, 2022 · at 12:44 am EST/EDT
  
  I read they moved their planes to safety in Romania and other countries.
  I watched Russian reports carefully, since mid April, and noted that Russians would claim shooting down almost 2 Ukrainian fighter jets – either Su’s or Mig’s per day. But finally, when August came, it dropped to only 2-3 a week. So sometime in early August there’d be most days with no reports of Ukrainian fighter jets being shot down. But it in taking an average of 2 per day (the number was less, but lets say in the first several days they destroyed more), for 5 months, ~150+ days, would mean Ukraine had over 300 fighter jets at the beginning of the war. So the number of fighter jets Ukraine had was more than people estimated, or some of these “shot down” planes were salvageable and repaired, or the numbers destroyed in the first few weeks may have been exaggerated estimates.
Rustic on September 01, 2022 · at 4:11 am EST/EDT

Hi Saker, This is bloody awesome report, it answered all of my questions. Please keep up the good work ,God bless you !
petr on September 01, 2022 · at 4:26 am EST/EDT

“the Kiev faint itself, however, was a total success and it achieved all its goals”

Can someone please elaborate on how the Kiev faint [sic] was a total success in light of the losses (VDV) incurred and what the actual goals were?
- James on September 01, 2022 · at 6:50 am EST/EDT
  
  This is an interesting question. I don’t think anyone outside of Russia’s high command can say with any definitiveness what the purpose of the Kiev incursion was. There are several scenarios that have been touted though.
  
  One, is as the Saker said it was a feint designed to tie down AFU forces in western Ukraine, or otherwise help Russian forces on other fronts.
  
  The second scenario touted in Western media, and by Ukraine, is that Russia tried a regime decapitation strike to end the war by taking Kyiv, but due to Russian incompetence and Ukrainian bravery were beaten back by a skillful counterattack.
  
  The third scenario is that this was a pressure tactic by Moscow to force Kyiv to the negotiation table early on, which did work initially. It was a bargaining chip. As a sign of goodwill Russia withdrew these forces, hoping to secure a deal. Of course, when the forces were withdrawn the Ukrainians claimed victory and Boris Johnson told Zelensky to stop the peace talks, and EU/US aid drastically increased. https://news.antiwar.com/2022/08/31/report-russia-ukraine-tentatively-agreed-on-peace-deal-in-april/
  - The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 12:01 pm EST/EDT
    
    Scenario two is silly: nobody takes a city the size of Kiev with three battalions.
- Peter on September 01, 2022 · at 7:10 am EST/EDT
  
  The goal was to tie down the Kiev AFU fighters to the city itself so that they wouldn’t join the main fight happening in the Donbass. As many have explained Russia wasn’t interested in taking the city despite what many western media are spouting.
  - Opport Knocks on September 01, 2022 · at 12:34 pm EST/EDT
    
    I agree there was no serious intent to take the city as there were almost no missiles aimed at the city center. But I disagree with the feint theory popularized here. A good strategy if Russian wanted full regime change would have been to blitz Donbass and draw more of the troops out of Kyiv, then move into Kyiv.
    
    The most rational conclusion is that the Russian simply wanted to see how US/Zelensky would respond. The fact that the President did not immediately flee (as Yanukovich did in 2014) and there were immediate negotiations after meant that Kyiv understood their precarious situation.
    - The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 2:12 pm EST/EDT
      
      Okay, I give up.
      whatever. yes, the Russians tried to take Kiev.
      Fine.
      (boy such comments really make me wonder if these folks really believe their own comments…)
SmallStepForMan on September 01, 2022 · at 5:03 am EST/EDT

“Since Russia is flush with cash thanks to the western sanctions…”

That gave me a good chuckle :)
Jim Christian on September 01, 2022 · at 5:41 am EST/EDT

Another reminder that Saker, Martyanov and Larry have forgotten more than I will ever know. But I’m better informed than 99.999 of the current mess that constitutes media in the West. Excellent post, Andrei. One of the all-time greats. Superb.
Englishman on September 01, 2022 · at 5:50 am EST/EDT

Great, thanks for detailed report,i could be wrong but i expect a major Russian offensive at some stage,we don’t need to know or hear about it until its underway i think,this happened in WW2 the Nazis had a failed offensive then Russia went on a major counter attack,they had been building up their forces for such an offensive and the Nazis were shocked it could happen on such a scale.
KRL on September 01, 2022 · at 6:05 am EST/EDT

From Intelslava:

“The Kremlin was aware of the plans of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to take advantage of the arrival of the IAEA mission and carry out an amphibious landing in order to try to seize the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant and make statements for days that it was Russian special forces. Under ideal conditions for the work of the DRG, they calculated the task of taking the mission itself hostage and keeping the nuclear power plant under mines, making demands for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops to the territory of Crimea.

Boris Johnson brought the plan of operation and some of the instructors with him as a demobilization chord of his premiership, but if the GUR was successful, he would have refused to transfer power, referring to an international emergency threatening a catastrophe on a planetary scale. At the moment, 47 DRG fighters have been destroyed, three have been taken prisoner (!), Two are in serious condition between life and death. A group of 12 people is blocked on three sides and cut off from the water and boats, by 15:00 CTO will be over. Zelensky’s statement on this situation is expected in the late afternoon, the head of the IAEA Mission has already been notified of the situation, as well as UN Secretary General Guterres. The operation was coordinated by MI6 officers from their headquarters in the suburbs of Kyiv.

All 64 DRGs have recently completed training in the UK and traveled from Warsaw to Odessa on 29 August.”
https://t.me/s/intelslava
- dask on September 01, 2022 · at 8:58 am EST/EDT
  
  It’s worse than that. After the first landing to the NE, two barges attempted to attack from the west shortly thereafter and were sunk by Russian helicopters with some 100+ special forces each. And then the helicopters blew up another few dozen (and possibly a few British officers) waiting on the Nikopol side bank.
  
  But listen to UKR Telegram source Legitimate:
  
  Ukrainian channel Legitimate:
  
  “Our source confirms fights in the villages bordering Energodar and on the shore of the reservoir. What a “brilliant” idea – a landing party of 100-200 people near Energodar transferred from the side of Nikopol/Marganets without support of aviation and artillery.
  
  The source reports that President’s Office calls this tactics as “tactics of thousand cuts”, the purpose of which is to destabilize and sow panic among the civilian population and to create illusion of attacking for the mass media. The source indicates that this strategy was prepared by NATO specialists. The Russians, of course, have already eliminated almost all of this Ukrainian landing force. There was no chance of survival. Bankovaya sent them to certain death.”
- KRL on September 01, 2022 · at 9:25 am EST/EDT
  
  TASS 15:14
  “MOSCOW, September 1. /TASS/. Ukrainian saboteurs who planned to seize the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant were trained in the UK, Vladimir Rogov, a member of the main council of the military-civilian administration of the Zaporozhye Region, said during a Rossiya-1 TV broadcast on Thursday…..”
  https://tass.com/politics/1501127
  - The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 9:04 pm EST/EDT
    
    yes, this fantastically idiotic operation had “Great Britain” written all over it…
- Lone Wolf on September 01, 2022 · at 9:33 am EST/EDT
  
  @ KRL on September 01, 2022 · at 6:05 am EST/EDT
  
  Thanks for the update.
  
  BoJo’s latest visit was to finalize details for the “counter offensive,” and how to proceed with the visit of the IAEA delegation. He brought with him the “experts” to finish the plans, and green lighted the coming operations.
  
  It’s been all a F.U.B.A.R. of sizable proportions.
  
  Someone, somewhere, is sabotaging Ze’s suicidal operational plans by ratting them to the Allied forces. Ze’s surrounding coterie must be going bunkers, there is nothing more unnerving than having an informant among those in an inner circle, where everybody is supposed to be trusted.
  
  A report surfaced a few weeks ago, about the appalling conditions the ZNPP was found by the time the Russians took it over. The report was part of an article I keep in my bookmarks, elaborating on the reasons for Ukraine to be shelling the plant, and the goal was to destroy it. They were afraid of the current developments, an IAEA inspection group, with the Russian nuclear experts having an opportunity to provide a detail account of the poor state of the nuclear plant.
  
  A negative assessment of the state of the ZNPP under Ukraine, would favor the Russian side in their refusal to return them the plant. Allegedly, according to the article, all the money for its maintenance was embezzled by one of Ukraine’s oligarchs.
  
  The delegation was held at one of Ukraine’s checkpoints for about three hours, to allow time for the DRG groups to work their way into the plant. Unfortunately, there was a welcoming party expecting them, and the whole thing became one more S.N.A.F.U. for Ukraine.
  
  Not to worry, they are winning the war in Twitter and the MSM.
  
  Cheers,
  
  Lone Wolf
  - Lone Wolf on September 01, 2022 · at 11:13 am EST/EDT
    
    @ KRL on September 01, 2022 · at 9:25 am EST/EDT
    
    Here is the article I mentioned above, report on ZNPP added.
    
    Yandex the best browser for translation of images.
    
    https://readovka.news/news/108520
    
    Zaporizhia NPP: what is Ukraine really trying to achieve by firing at a nuclear facility?
    
    “…Attempts to cause an accident at the plant are based on the desire to hide the real state of affairs at the nuclear power plant and not give an opportunity to check and analyze anything. So that no one, except for the Russian Federation, which, of course, no one in the civilized world will believe, does not know in what state the station passed to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
    
    The NPP equipment is in a worn-out, deplorable state. It was not repaired for years, the allocated funds were totally plundered, the famous Kiev oligarchy in the person of Rinat Akhmetov profited from its operation. As evidence – an original document: a letter from employees of the nuclear power plant to the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, where they reported on the condition of the equipment and asked to take measures to repair it.
    
    The risk of Chernobyl 2.0, or even a more serious nuclear catastrophe, remains if the shelling continues, and the dilapidated power units are operated in the same conditions. The latter will now be under the control of experienced Russian power engineers, but who is to blame for the critical equipment being in such a state?
    ———————————————-
    
    Lone Wolf
Mrs. Lopsided on September 01, 2022 · at 6:24 am EST/EDT

The argument in defense of the Russian slow-walk campaign is not convincing. If these results can be had by only these small numbers of soldiers what is the positive reason that the larger numbers are not deployed? Because completing this mission quickly and decisively is POLITICALLY required. It would collapse the false balloons of western leaders, help to turn the populace against them. Dragging this business out permits the Bad Guys to better sustain their rule.
- Rt80 on September 01, 2022 · at 8:24 am EST/EDT
  
  It’s generally a military rule dragging out a conflict allows the weaker enemy to learn your tactics and strike back.
  
  Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam are all examples of this
  
  It also gives them time to invent asymmetrical responses that may not be militarily significant but embarrassing to Russia and leadership.
  
  An example of this is bombing military base in Crimea or the unsuccessful bribing of Russian pilots to defect and sell their planes for large cash rewards.
  
  If they pulled that off it would have looked very bad but they’ll try again and do other imaginative and potentially damaging things
  
  So yes long conflicts are a big risk in its own
- frankly on September 01, 2022 · at 11:46 am EST/EDT
  
  After all that has happened the idea that the truth will collapse western leaders narratives seems misguided.
  
  Putin has stated repeatedly that the slow pace is to minimize civilian casualties. He considers the Slavic people in these regions as brothers. Contrast this with western carpet bombing of civilian populations, there are endless examples.
  
  Ukrainians will have to live with Russians, not western oligarchs. Escalating the violence gives the west a further reason to intervene.
  
  In a new multipolar world the political decisions of western leaders will be increasingly ignored. The west has ample information to sue for peace but choose instead to provoke violence in Ukraine and worldwide.
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 12:02 pm EST/EDT
  
  Did you read what I wrote?????
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 2:14 pm EST/EDT
  
  The argument in defense of the Russian slow-walk campaign is not convincing. If these results can be had by only these small numbers of soldiers what is the positive reason that the larger numbers are not deployed?
  
  Because they would contribute very little. Did you not hear the videos of Ukrainian soldiers who say that they are frustrated that they never see the Russian soldiers, they only get hammered by Russian artillery and airpower.
  
  So adding more soldiers would be useless at this point.
- Tony Kaku on September 01, 2022 · at 7:39 pm EST/EDT
  
  Germany has cut off its gas and is hurting already. Just wait a few months to see real pain.
  Britain, or at least the fools that govern it, has spent billions sending weapons to Uruguay, or Uganda: the one with the Jewish president. Let’s wait and see if they lose some more money.
  It’s like a kung-fu movie where the baddoe gang are beating themselves up. “I impervious to pain! See I knock myself out.”
  
  Russia’s European partners have been “enjoying” an episode in recent months. Maybe when they come to their senses Russia will once again extend the hand of friendship and long-term contracts for gas. Or maybe not. Either way, there’s no rush.
- sejmon on September 01, 2022 · at 8:45 pm EST/EDT
  
  Agree with you….I hope Vlad/Shoigu do have a timetable which end up SMO in few month ahead….glad to see russian side got on “other side” real patriotic military persons-who promptly inform them….
Jean Claude on September 01, 2022 · at 7:26 am EST/EDT

As a Frenchman, but rather a Russophile, I am going to enjoy this weekend listening to Tamara Gverdtsiteli, Oleg Gazmanov, Aida Garifullina, Dmitry Hvorostovsky, and if I have any time left, the immense and moving Children’s Choir of Russia or the last concert of the Mariinsky Theatre
- AHH on September 01, 2022 · at 9:27 am EST/EDT
  
  Jean Claude,
  among my favorites too.
  
  ➡️ Children’s Choir of Russia
  ➡️ Dmitry Hvorostovsky
  
  Enjoy!
- res on September 01, 2022 · at 10:36 am EST/EDT
  
  Bravo. Glorious Russian artists and the second most beautiful theater in the world. The most beautiful is the San Carlo in Naples!
Stratbuff on September 01, 2022 · at 7:29 am EST/EDT

For those paying attention to the board, Ukraine is in a forced checkmate.

The offensive was announced, and announced, and the Russians has weeks to prepare. They were told where it would come from, and it doesn’t take a strategic genius to workout how that would unfold. Their troops were clearly trained and tasked to handle the situation, and the region the attack would come from turned into a kill zone. Russian groupings firing off anti-tank missiles, then falling back while covered by the next line, all while artillery rained down hell, and with the clock running down till the air power arrived to mop up.

Know, given that Brits are making all the military calls, we know that the offensive will be pedestrian, brute force, have zero consideration for losses, and involve establishing a beach head, and then fighting for survival before being wiped out, or being forced to retreat. See literally every British offensive in history.

So that means forces will be thrown into the meat grinder, and forces from the rear will be moved up to sure up the second line, for the inevitable wide-eyed retreat of Ukrainian forces, followed by a Russian offensive. This means a large number of forces moved from Odessa to Nikolaev. Leaving Odessa under defended. Again, it’s British military ‘experts’ making all the plans. Meanwhile, there’s news of Russia gathering hundreds of helicopters, jets, and tens of thousands of troops all armed with modern weapons, and grain shipments permitted, so Russia can study the safe routes.

Odessa is ripe to be taken by a combination landing and airborne offensive. It will force Ukraine to send large convoys of forces to Odessa to avoid losing the entire coast, which have to move hundreds of kilometers a long open roads. If Russia also moves on Nikolaev, then Ukraine is in a hopeless position, as they lose one or both cities. Checkmate.

And British continue to go down in history as the worst nation at waging war. Even the Americans beat them.
- WTFUD on September 01, 2022 · at 10:00 am EST/EDT
  
  Admittedly you’re correct, we have an unenviable track record since our great victory in the First Matabele War (1893) when we mowed down thousands of the spear wielding terrorists refusing to give up their prime agriculture land with the Maxim machine gun in one afternoon.
  
  Cecil Rhodes & Rothschild had their feet up, slippers & pipe by 3pm that day.
- sean the leprechaun on September 01, 2022 · at 12:35 pm EST/EDT
  
  So wrong, the Brits excel a pitting brother against brother, you and him fight, I’ll watch and if either side needs something while they slaughter each other, well, just ask, they will supply it, kit, training, equipment, works for them because no army has invaded the little shit hole since 1066.
  
  The Brits have more than enough fodder to sustain their LOC stalemate in the Lands that border Russia. Chess is a set game, with set pieces, the Ukraine is not Chess, the Brits can throw Pawns on the board all day long, till the barrels bend if need be. They may even throw more Knights and Castles……the joke, they ain’t doing the dying.
  
  Cheers M
John on September 01, 2022 · at 8:14 am EST/EDT

A very nice review, thank you very much Andrei. My best to you and I am glad to hear you are healing up.
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 12:03 pm EST/EDT
  
  Yup! Health issues resolved (at least I sure hope so!)
  thank you
Bawelisa on September 01, 2022 · at 8:44 am EST/EDT

Thanks for all you do,Andrei Raevsky.
May God Bless and Protect you Always, Amen

Please listen to African Jazz Pioneers as well.
The cd “Sip n’Fly” is very good!
Peter M on September 01, 2022 · at 8:54 am EST/EDT

This week Oregon, Ralph Towner, Larry Coryell, Joe Scofield,Steve Kuhn, last week Pat Metheny, Jean-Luc Ponty, Stanley Clarke and Al Di Meola and Charlie Haden…

I am impressed by your taste.
Have been listening to any of them for a very long time. Thanks.

I am also most of the time impressed by your analysis, except when it comes to supplying the enemy with fuel and other strategic minerals. A sore point with me.
Thanks again.
WTFUD on September 01, 2022 · at 9:00 am EST/EDT

Dilma at Military Summary last night seemed to be drinking UK cool aid or has too many friends in Lviv.

He managed to make the UAF suicide mission sound like a well thought out counter offensive.

Everyone’s got a plan until they lose 50 tanks.

Regarding the power plant visit, how many of those IAEA stooges were in on the UAF Special Operation Charade to seize it ? I’ve forgotten the whole list of nationalities in their Party but the Polish & Albanian stooges should be detained for questioning.
- Englishman on September 01, 2022 · at 10:29 am EST/EDT
  
  Too right,i wondered what the makeup of that IAEA team was.
LT on September 01, 2022 · at 9:06 am EST/EDT

Speaking of donating, it will become a lot harder in the future.

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) – less privacy and more totalitarian control.
Coming sooner than you thought.

https://dailyreckoning.com/bidens-most-enduring-legacy/
Soleii on September 01, 2022 · at 9:20 am EST/EDT

To Andrei:
Please clarify your viewpoint set forth in the following quote. In particular, why, exactly, do you believe that what the Iranians have been doing in “Syria, Iraq, Yemen,” [but also in conjunction with Hamas in Palestine and Hezobollah in Lebanon] do NOT qualify as “real, modern, warfare conditions”? What, exactly, are the components that you believe are missing?

Your quote:
Is it possible that Russia might buy some Iranian UAV? I would say that it is not very likely, but quite possible. Why? First, Russia and Iran are (informal but strong) allies and the Iranians would probably love to test their gear in real, modern, warfare conditions (Syria, Iraq or Yemen do not qualify).
- Soleii on September 01, 2022 · at 11:16 am EST/EDT
  
  Also, would you please address Yrr’s question posted above; namely:
  
  “Where do you get that Russians are using less than 10% of their strength ?”
  
  This is a statement of fact which warrants the citing of evidentiary bases therefor. In general, one would not feel comfortable in making such a claim apart from high level conference with either Shoigu or Lavrov.
  - oie9am on September 01, 2022 · at 1:11 pm EST/EDT
    
    this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
    Ever since I read about Russia only using 10% of their military assets, I’ve had an unsure, vague image of huge forces of strength marshalled in the background ready to advance when given the command.
    It is sometimes confusing and hard to put different facts and narratives of the “SMO” together with all that has been happening on the ground, and how is one to understand these facts in relation to the deaths and injured of Ukrainians, volunteers, and Russians for example? many things leave one feeling unsure because of the length of the operation, which is clearly not going as foreseen. I appreciate all the input from Saker and friends and all, but do find some people talking as though the SMO was still seen in a similar position as portrayed earlier.
    Putin has faded away, where is he, it’s his war, or SMO after all.
    - Tony Kaku on September 01, 2022 · at 8:03 pm EST/EDT
      
      It does read like a troll, one of those bots on the finance pages. oie’s tentative query leaves one vaguely confused, faded and unsure. was it indeed a question. without a question mark
      - The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 9:06 pm EST/EDT
        
        LOL!! According to them, Putin has been “dying of cancer” for years already, so why not daydream about him “fading away”.
        
        oie9am on September 02, 2022 · at 4:47 am EST/EDT
        
        Well, when is a so called troll not a troll!!
        
        Vague I was not, but very much on topic, rude I was not, but exceedingly polite, disloyal I was not, and have never, ever been to Russia. naive I am not, but seeking, honest, faithful and frustrated, frightened to express my feelings clearly for fear of being deleted perhaps, as they may not always agree with others.
        
        I think my points were underrstood however….. Oh the tragic war of the spirit! Would people but learn to let go and work together, when we fight for the same just cause, and not mock and ridicule, !!
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 12:05 pm EST/EDT
  
  None of these countries or wars involved truly modern technologies and forces.
  I am sorry, but going into a list would take way too long.
  Cheers
Leandro Nicanoff on September 01, 2022 · at 9:35 am EST/EDT

Estimado Saker
Vuelvo a sentir la inmensa satisfaccion por tu aprecio a la guitarra “gaucha” en este caso de Eduardo Falu.
(antes por Luis Salinas), Para gran parte de mi pueblo Falu y tambien Davalos fueron y seran extraordinarios compositores del folklore argentino.
Me hace sentir orgulloso pues aquel que admiro por su vision poilitica y humana, tambien sabe apreciar lo mejor de la musica nuestra.
Argentina no esta pasando por un buen momento y muy a mi pesar no todo el mundo entiende la importancia de lo central que es Ucrania / SMO para el desarrollo politico de latinoamerica, hacen falta voces diferentes, dado que los medios concentrados estan en manos del ANGLO-SIONISMO y tergiversan la verdad.
Lograr poner al dia SAKER en español seria MUY SALUDABLE.
No es mi caso leo ingles sin problemas pero muchos sectores no han tenido la oportunidad de aprender.

Un abrazo afectuoso para vos y tu gente
Leandro
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 1:12 pm EST/EDT
  
  Gracias Leandro! Extraño tanto a Argentina que escuchar a músicos argentinos es lo mejor que puedo hacer para abordar mi nostalgia.
  Abrazos a vos tambien!
  Andrei
Ralph on September 01, 2022 · at 9:42 am EST/EDT

Sorry, Andrei, about what you said: ‘Like with ANY advanced weapons system, combat aircraft need all of the following things to be effective’ – wrong. You are a sane person using facts and logic, this is not necessary for the satanic kiev regime. How do you think they are going to fight to the last ukrainian if they are going to spare them from doing risky, or quite frankly, insane & suicidal actions? From their pov, the more the merrier, just what satan wants.

Also, those Soviet weapons & ammo need to be destroyed so that they can be replaced by yank kit.
Grisha on September 01, 2022 · at 9:48 am EST/EDT

this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
“the Kiev faint itself, however, was a total success and it achieved all its goals)”.

The goal was to trigger a collapse and occupy the capital with troops at best equipped for riot control. It was an embarrassing failure.

Anyone with basic military training could tell you the “troops” initially deployed were effectively untrained. Watch videos of their movements in and around cities.

It’s one thing to support a side. It’s another to call failure success while claiming the other side are issuing propaganda…
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 12:07 pm EST/EDT
  
  Utter nonsense. You REALLY think that the Russians tried to invade Kiev with 3 battalions?
  If you do, I got a few bridges to sell for super prices. Interested?
  As for the “untrained” troops, you are talking about VDV and even the 45th.
  Did you think before posting this idiocy????
- Ralph on September 01, 2022 · at 5:53 pm EST/EDT
  
  Correct me if I am wrong, but under international law(?) doesn’t the invader have to assume full responsibility for the country if it takes the capital?
  
  Better to liberate the whole of ukraine – if necessary – except for the capital, but maybe let Poland have part of the western ukraine so that they can deal with the bat-shit crazies there.
  - The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 9:09 pm EST/EDT
    
    Yes, what you invade you are responsible for.
    Not only the civilians, but the entire infrastructure.
    Russia cannot afford subsidizing the entire Ukraine or being responsible for law and order.
    You are 100% correct and those who want Russia to occupy as much of the Ukraine as possible don’t understand that after the fun of the initial triumph, the day to day running of this failed state aka country 404 will be a nightmare.
    I say let the Ukrainians clean their own mess. with Russian help, yes, but no more.
    My 2cts
Dale on September 01, 2022 · at 11:03 am EST/EDT

Where is the “10% of available forces” coming from. I don’t doubt it, but would like to have a source.
George Kovachev on September 01, 2022 · at 11:06 am EST/EDT

All true, except for one small thing – “the Russians got absolutely destroyed in the propaganda war”. This stamement is based on the incorrect assumption that the russians do give a damn about what the westerners think about them. They don’t. Indeed, in the western media of mass disinformation, the russians may have been splattered, but in Russia – the support for the antiterrorist operation, which they call SMO, increased and continue to increase. And, in the final analysis, this is what really matters for the russian leadership – that they have the russian people behind their backs. And, in the end, the false narrative about the russians military, ecenonomy, etc. started to crumble on its own – even in the west, no one with two brain cells rub together believes the official narrative anymore.

Bulgarians have a saying: няма значение какво говорят за теб, важното е да надживееш копелетата. Roughly translated it means: it doesn’t matter what they say about you, the important thing is to outlive the bastards. And, if history is any indication, the russians are very good at outliving whoever made the terminal mistake to attack them.
- tranquilocomp on September 01, 2022 · at 12:02 pm EST/EDT
  
  It matters what they say in the whole world outside of your country! Not as much, but it does. Why should it be just in the West? I think it’s in the whole world (I don’t know if in China too). At best, they condemn it but with a “but”. I think they destroyed themselves too, not just “got absolutely destroyed in the propaganda war.”
  - George Kovachev on September 01, 2022 · at 1:23 pm EST/EDT
    
    Well, 85% of that world didn’t support the sanctions against Russia, and this includes China and India – the two most populos countries in the world. I suspect that my command of english language is not as good as thought – my thesis is that the russians don’t give a damn about what the west thinks about them. The western MSMs spit lies and propaganda, the russians know it, but they don’t care. Their goal was clearly stated to get rid of the Nazis in the Ukraine and to ensure that Ukraine no longer presents a danger to russian people. If the west has a problem with that – big deal. You see, the russians can live without the west; the western economies without the russian resources are doomed.
  - tranquilocomp on September 01, 2022 · at 1:24 pm EST/EDT
    
    To wit, if you invade and start a war, then you forbid saying “war” and “invasion” (make it illegal), then your messaging as to the cause changes constantly – first being to save yourself, then to save the world, and things in-between too – what will people of the world conclude from all that?
    
    Do they even know what they are saying? I don’t think so PR wise. They speak off the cuff. From the above, the obvious reaction to be had is that you are just an invader, period. The other thing that may affect this is that we are getting to see Putin’s management style through the SMO. It looks like he lets people under him talk to the world freely! They don’t speak for him, they just say what they think or want, and it’s looking like a bear with the bear cubs. It’s not good, really. You would think it’s President Medvedev, before him President Patrushev, and even an economist was sounding off as if he were the president. Shoigu, too, can dabble into what the ‘new’ world is about to be. They also speak as if they were the foreign ministers, I guess Lavrov does not like it. It’s no PR. Looks like they don’t care about PR, might be the only ones who don’t too.
    - Gibli on September 01, 2022 · at 3:58 pm EST/EDT
      
      @tranquilocomp
      There are too many collective West atrocities, driven by the literally same MSM propaganda
      World , outside Anglo sphere , just see things like they really are:
      collective West always try to colonize and plunder nations in other parts of World. They live by expense of whole humanity.
      So collective West propaganda and behavior is nothing new, too many people in the World are fed up.
      
      For me, it is amazing how Russian people do no see what tremendous support they have.
      - tranquilocomp on September 01, 2022 · at 5:50 pm EST/EDT
        
        “it is amazing how Russian people do no see what tremendous support they have.”
        
        I could be wrong in my opinion, there is no such world poll. More people would support like that if they saw it as “Russia vs. USA”; I think it’s “Russia vs. Ukraine” to most people (or strong country attacking a weaker country).
        
        Biggus Dickus on September 01, 2022 · at 11:41 pm EST/EDT
        
        @tranquilocomp
        
        With NATO weapons flowing into Ukraine and NATO military actively participating as special forces, the world knows that this is a proxy war against Russia.
        
        People in the West may be blind to the numerous requests by Russia over the last year from the NATO for security guarantees, but I’ve see many people (especially non-westerners) talk about it. And that’s not only on some alternative forums such as this but on most of the social media sites.
Dick Lenning on September 01, 2022 · at 12:51 pm EST/EDT

The US pentagon apparently planned the current Ukrainian counter-offensive:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/31/politics/ukraine-us-wargames-counteroffensive/index.html

If this is true, then I must ask:

1) Are US admirals & generals truly so incompetent? Or,
2) Did the pentagon deliberately give bad advice to the Ukrainians, in order to further deplete their ranks?
- tranquilocomp on September 01, 2022 · at 1:56 pm EST/EDT
  
  About 2), no.
  
  The relationship is changing; money is a factor and the Pentagon is distancing itself (this was notorious in some answers quoted from a Pentagon spokesman in a previous Sitrep). The money that is given has underlying assumptions, i.e., it’s not for losing or doing nothing. To get it, Ukraine must show victories, actions, or else it’s “delayed”…Pretty obvious that there are strong disagreements inside Ukraine about how to conduct the war. It must be like a riddle, anyway. People who always say that Ukrainians are only “puppets” can’t see nor accept this reality. Puppets don’t have internal disagreements, you know, and they don’t matter because the “puppet master” arrives to decide all. As someone well said here, such disqualifications are platitudinous red herrings.
TheObsoleteMan on September 01, 2022 · at 3:26 pm EST/EDT

Of course things are going well for Russia in the SMO, and I know that success will only continue in the days, weeks and months ahead. But one thing does cause me to wonder: Yes, I get it that Russia is fighting under completely different tactics and strategies than those in the LDNR, but if the LDNR is fighting in common cause with their Russian brothers {and they are} and they are in desperate need of some cheap {by military standards} and readily available equipment to be more successful in their missions and to potentially spare some lives of LDNR troops, then why not provide it to them? Or any thing else within reason that they may need? This would only hasten a successful conclusion to this SMO. This should have been provided months ago. As always, thank you for your good analysis on these matters.
The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 4:14 pm EST/EDT

What in the world are you talking about??? YT bans videos with corpses, so they are greyed out.
But on Telegram you can find tons of videos with plenty of corpses.
Ignorance is not an excuse “chessmaster” ;-)
also, Ukie morale is already in the pits, in spite of Kiev censoring pretty much everything.
Do you think that the Ukrainians are stupid? They know the score. They do not need “convincing”.
YMMV of course…
CitizenSmith on September 01, 2022 · at 4:41 pm EST/EDT

There are media reports that the British aircraft carrier, HMS Prince of Wales has mechanical problems caused by lack of lubrication of one of the two propeller shafts, attributable to “human error”. It is also reported that divers had reported “damage to the propeller shaft”.

It is rather obvious that shaft damage due to lack of lubrication would only affect those parts of the shaft within bearings and seals and therefore invisible to divers.

Observable damage by divers cannot be attributable to lack of lubrication, and can only be attributed to external factors.

I wonder who could have done it?
- grr on September 02, 2022 · at 3:35 am EST/EDT
  
  Yes good point. Divers would only see the external section of the prop shaft.
  Well spotted.
  Maybe sabotage.
  
  I never forget a speech VVP made several years ago in which he specifically mentioned and thanked the unknown (Russian) people that sacrifice their lives living in foreign countries, the ‘sleeper agents’ that go through their careers without public recognition.
  VVP was employed in that dept. (managing/handling) for a good part of his career too I read somewhere.
  - sean the leprechaun on September 02, 2022 · at 6:13 pm EST/EDT
    
    Seals, either seep, weep, or leak, weeps may be visible externally, external leaks, totally visible will indicate seal failure and possible shaft wear or damage.
    
    Cheers M
    - grr on September 03, 2022 · at 4:12 am EST/EDT
      
      Tnx for clearing that up sean. I forgot about that. Damaged shafts tear seals.
      
      But we can be sure that the ship is a piece of crap LOL
Cookie on September 01, 2022 · at 5:36 pm EST/EDT

The really sad thing is none of this is necessary if people only realise that the pyramid system of power allow a small cardre of criminals to sacrifice other people’s lives for their own ends.

These people will order others deaths yet will never-ever put a hair on the head of any of their love ones or themselves anywhere near harms way.

The easiest way to stop this war is to target a few of these people in Washington and Britain or wherever they hide, the war will end tomorrow if this was done.
GW on September 01, 2022 · at 6:14 pm EST/EDT

I’ve heard that notorious Russia-hater Julian Roepke is tweeting that the Ukie/Nazis have suffered severe losses in recent days. Can anyone confirm that Roepke is really saying these things?

Roepke is a ghoulish, malignant presence on Twitter. A rabid pro-Nazi too. He’s one of the reasons I don’t visit that media outlet anymore.

If someone like Roepke admits the sainted Ukrainians are getting decimated, then you know the situation is pretty bad for the Nazis.
Natoistan on September 01, 2022 · at 7:54 pm EST/EDT

The Moment of Greatest Danger

https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/09/the-moment-of-greatest-danger.html
- The Saker on September 01, 2022 · at 9:10 pm EST/EDT
  
  Please do not post links without at least a commentary.
  (how many times will I have to repeat that???)
Susan on September 01, 2022 · at 10:29 pm EST/EDT

Thank you so much for keeping us informed. Your reports and the access you’ve given to other very important writers has been invaluable.
Peace and blessing be upon you 💖
Francois Chazal on September 01, 2022 · at 11:10 pm EST/EDT

I trust this victory will cut further bloodshed of Slav Blood, and precipitate the fall of the empire of lies to which, we, oppressed western friends of Russia, a praying for.
The Ukrainians learned nothing on the difficulty to attack, especially without sufficient artillery. God is on the side of the better artillery, so we know on whose side God is.
Will continue my prayers until all is done, do my best to augment dissent on this side, suffering as it is from the Communism of the rich or Capitalism
Lone Wolf on September 01, 2022 · at 11:19 pm EST/EDT

We never waste time reading A. Martyanov, and his last post on “Reminiscence of the Future” (http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/), addresses the latest events, the “counter offensive,” the botched ZNPP “suicide bombers” operation, and Ukraine/US/NATO “combined arms operation incompetence.”

Martyanov is not known for mincing words, he calls a spade a spade, an idiot an idiot, and he is usually on target knowing well “you cannot fix stupid…”

For Martyanov, force is not a simple concept, and those behind the counter offensive, he says, have “huge issues with operational planning and with math, in terms of stating conception, objectives (task) and criteria of effectiveness by which to judge the outcome.” In other words, a counter offensive cannot be vaguely planned to attack along a couple of axes in order to make some gain. It is a serious issue, and historically, Russia’s Art of War has always consider it such.

Besides learning from any of his videos/posts, he is ever entertaining…

Enjoy.
———————————————–

Thursday, September 1, 2022

If True…

…which I believe it is, it merely confirms what I increasingly begin to state openly–combined arms operations incompetence:

American officials helped prepare the Ukrainian military for its counteroffensive against Russian forces in the south of the country, CNN claimed on Thursday, citing anonymous sources. In its article, the US outlet alleged that this assistance included joint “war-gaming” analytical exercises designed to help the Ukrainians get a clear picture of how much personnel and hardware they would need in different scenarios. US officials, meanwhile, reportedly were able to better understand what kind of equipment, munitions or intelligence Washington could offer to Kiev. According to the report, which cites multiple US and Western officials and also Ukrainian sources, Washington had suggested that Kiev should keep its counteroffensive focused solely on the Kherson region in the south of the country as opposed to trying to strike on multiple fronts, which had supposedly been the Ukrainians’ initial plan.

I don’t know who “calculated” this ever important and defining thing–a required force (наряд сил)–for this “counter-offensive”, but whoever it was, or were, they have huge issues with operational planning and with math, in terms of stating conception, objectives (task) and criteria of effectiveness by which to judge the outcome, which, now we all know. Evidently, as it follows from CNN report, the unnamed (of course) US “sources” still think that:

Among the factors that have allegedly tipped the scale more in Ukraine’s favor recently, the anonymous officials named the delivery of sophisticated Western weaponry, including the US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), as well as supposed hostility toward Russian troops among large swaths of the population in Russia-controlled regions of the country. The latter, according to CNN, has been translating into guerilla-style attacks, assassinations and sabotage efforts behind Russian lines.

You cannot fix stupid and amateur, and that is how US (and Western, in general) “aid” to Kiev regime increasingly looks like. But I have been at it for such a long time that there is no need to dwell on this yet again. The conclusion is simple and self-evident–those who “plan” these “operations” for VSU are the same people who ended up having lied and, finally, had their ass handed to them by a ragtag Taliban in Afghanistan and elsewhere. You cannot expect a serious combined arms operations of scale and scope of SMO ability from the military which primarily fought COIN throughout its modern existence. Granted, that North Vietnamese were more than just very skillful guerrillas, those guys also knew how to fight a good fight with serious weapons.

I am sure that this whole FUBAR with this “counter-offensive” which ended in a disaster, and pathetic attempts to sabotage IAEA visit to Zaprorozhie by trying to insert there two saboteur groups, which now have been annihilated, bear all hallmarks of the American “combined arms” planning which is primarily based around PR for the domestic consumption provided by pliable US media and have very little practical output in reality. In the end, even WaPo had enough with this “planning”. Now add here a procurement failure by Pentagon ranging from losing its industrial base to a perverted practices of R&D ranging from disasters with LCS, F-35 to a dismal performance of the US-made battlefield weapons, and one begins to get the impression about what constantly goes wrong. This also explains a desperation from seeing West’s best proxy ever being annihilated in industrial quantities by a fraction of Russian Armed Forces.

For the environment of America’s top political echelon over-saturated with political “scientists”, climate “experts” and lawyers it is impossible to explain, to get across the realities of real warfare and views of the nation whose military history simply dwarfs whatever the United States can present as a counter or alternative experience. This is not the reality “the finest fighting force in history” can easily accept, nor, possibly, judging by the spiraling out of control demoralization and declining quality of the force, even comprehend.

So, I guess classic courses on mathematics, physics, tactics, operations theory and real military history can wait, because nothing “improves lethality” more than proper gender identification and controlling own microaggressions.

In related news from the real world:

Amid the extreme heat that began on Wednesday and is expected to last until early next week, Californian electricity consumers have been urged not to charge their electric vehicles during peak demand hours to help ease the strain on the state’s electricity grid. Temperatures in California and the West started rising to above 110 degrees F on Wednesday, with the heatwave expected to intensify through the holiday weekend and extend into early next week, the American Public Power Association, which represents public utilities, said.Californians are thus expected to be asked via Flex alerts for voluntary energy conservation during the long weekend, the association added.

While Russia flatly responded to Washington:

Russia will embargo countries that support the Washington-proposed price cap on its oil, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday. “In my opinion, this is a complete absurdity… To those companies or countries that will impose restrictions, we will not supply our oil and oil products, because we are not going to work under non-market conditions,” he told reporters, commenting on a plan to limit prices on Russian oil currently being discussed by the Group of Seven (G7) countries.

This is the only language combined West understands, this and a credible threat of force. This is why Russia speaks now in broadsides and we ain’t seen nothing yet(c).
————————————————————————–

Lone Wolf
- evilsooty999 on September 02, 2022 · at 6:11 am EST/EDT
  
  Yep. I have to laugh at everyone bandying around these Ukrainian 1700+ KIA and thousands more wounded figures with zero skepticism, the sole source for which is…the Russian MoD.
  
  On MoA they have people copying and pasting the daily Russian MoD report as if it were Gospel.
  
  Newsflash: governments, ALL governments lie.
  
  The free pass the Russian authorities constantly get is embarrassing. A lot of people have turned their critical faculties off.
  - GW on September 02, 2022 · at 2:44 pm EST/EDT
    
    “I have to laugh at everyone bandying around these Ukrainian 1700+ KIA and thousands more wounded figures with zero skepticism, the sole source for which is…the Russian MoD.”
    
    There’s a Russian military commentator on Telegram who is scathingly critical of the SMO and MoD. Generally, he lambastes Russian authorities for, supposedly, not doing enough to win.
    
    However, this particular guy reports that the Nazis are being slaughtered at Kherson. He acknowledges Nazi reserves are deep and that they will continue attacking. But in spite of this, he says they are getting mowed down like grass.
    
    If this commentator reports such developments, I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt, given what’s known about his generally skeptical attitude.
    
    I don’t know if you’re impressed with this info but I thought I’d run it past you anyway.
- Rokossovsky on September 02, 2022 · at 1:23 pm EST/EDT
  
  Hi Lone,
  
  The Uke special forces operation on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant,
  
  WELL, WELL, WELL – LOOK WHAT WASHED UP ON SHORE OF ENERGODAR NUKE PLANT…. (18+)
  
  https://www.bitchute.com/video/cIljacizAaoG/
  
  was not that hard to detect (in hindsight). If you had been following the Russian MoD updates over the past few weeks, they talked about hitting foreign formations in the area north of the plant. Initially, I thought that was a weird location for the Uke foreign legion, it seemed to be out of the fight in the Donbass and in a “cushy” part of the front.
  
  Luckily Russian military intelligence and the FSB were not as dimwitted as me and apparently figured out what that unit was doing there. The video above speaks to those results and what Martyanov says.
  - Lone Wolf on September 02, 2022 · at 5:58 pm EST/EDT
    
    @ Rokossovsky on September 02, 2022 · at 1:23 pm EST/EDT
    
    The Uke special forces operation on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant,
    
    WELL, WELL, WELL – LOOK WHAT WASHED UP ON SHORE OF ENERGODAR NUKE PLANT…. (18+)
    
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/cIljacizAaoG/
    ——————————————–
    
    They were well equipped, can you make up the assault rifles? Are they German HK? Went through the comments to check if someone had identified them, there is only one comment about the last corpse having his weapon out, speculation whether he fought to the last bullet, or suicided.
    
    Some comments below the video are so stupid, at least they gave me the consolation we don’t have property rights on trolling idiots, as with the comments on my post above yours.
    
    For example, the vid was staged because the uniforms, papers and money, are “so clean.”
    Duuh…well, they just washed up on the shore, water tends to clean, and brand new bills, like those 100s, are not affected by a short washing. In fact, they look even newer.
    
    BTW, what were they doing with so much money, money laundering? Some commenters said the money was to bribe people, first idea that came to my mind.
    
    Also, in case of extreme necessity when under pressure, money always helps.
    ——————————————————————————————————–
    
    was not that hard to detect (in hindsight). If you had been following the Russian MoD updates over the past few weeks, they talked about hitting foreign formations in the area north of the plant. Initially, I thought that was a weird location for the Uke foreign legion, it seemed to be out of the fight in the Donbass and in a “cushy” part of the front.
    ————————————–
    
    I check Russia’s Mod updates whenever they are posted on several Telegram channels, however, my attention has been more on the Kherson and Avdiivka combat zones, than ZNPP, besides hoping it will resist the shelling.
    —————-
    
    Luckily Russian military intelligence and the FSB were not as dimwitted as me and apparently figured out what that unit was doing there. The video above speaks to those results and what Martyanov says.
    —————————————-
    
    Russia knows by now UkroWerhmacht weak points, and as Martyanov points out, they follow
    
    the American “combined arms” planning which is primarily based around PR for the domestic consumption provided by pliable US media and have very little practical output in reality.
    
    UkroWerhmacht advertises their moves, as with the so much cackled “counter offensive,” they have focused so much on ZNPP during the last month, Allied forces were right to suspect they will make a move, similar to the botched extractions they tried in Mariupol.
    
    And they did.
    
    Another rumor is someone ratted the whole operation to the Russians. Possible, but it can also be the first option I pointed above, Russians were ready and waiting, and why don’t use that very useful and timely readiness to mess around with the Ukronazis, by spreading the rumor, “we have a mole in your inner circles?”
    
    It doesn’t hurt, and all is fair in love and war.
    
    Russia set several security rings around ZNPP, and the foreign hunters gone on safari hunting Russians, ended up having a bath before, while, or after the reception committee fed them some lead.
    
    Lone Wolf
    - Lone Wolf on September 02, 2022 · at 6:18 pm EST/EDT
      
      @ Rokossovsky on September 02, 2022 · at 1:23 pm EST/EDT
      
      A bit of Russian black humor…
      
      https://t.me/war_subtitled_en/576
      
      “Comrade American instructor, two news about our op on Energodar, good and bad.
      
      You want good or bad first?
      
      – Give me the bad one.
      
      – Our spetsnaz drowned.
      
      – And the good one?
      
      – Bucket of river lobsters we collected from their bodies”.
      
      A piece of dark #humor from the Russian social media. Supposed to be read with a Hollywood generic eastern european accent.
      ———————————-
      
      Take a look at the lobster pic… :-)
      
      Lone Wolf
ossie on September 02, 2022 · at 12:02 am EST/EDT

FRS/GMRS is pindo specific, later adopted by canucks. They are purely analog systems, without encryption (there are encryption modules available for commercial analog radios).
Across the pond PMR is used. There are also digital radios available which work on the same frequency channels.
Hams also use DMR (commercial digital radios, which offer encryption), which are compatible with dPMR. While hams are not allowed to use encryption, a DMR radio (there are many more/less cheap chinese ones) user can configure it, so a casual listener can’t eavesdrop. Ham DMR repeaters are interconnected through the internet, so they can communicate from all over the world, even with an app on a smartphone/PC (no radio needed).
jojo on September 02, 2022 · at 12:57 am EST/EDT

“Then 2 diversionary groups totaling 60 soldiers on two crafts landed near the ZNP. They were detected and destroyed by the Russian aviation. Two hours later, the Ukrainians used two barges carrying an entire battalion (200-300 soldiers). They were detected and sunk.”

Yes, pictures or video of things like the above, or aftermath would be illustrative, though I think Russian combatants are too busy and forbidden to record what is happening. (The Chechen units were not under the same restrictions which is why they have so many videos.)
- grr on September 02, 2022 · at 3:05 am EST/EDT
  
  It’s widely reported that RF personnel are not allowed to carry personal mobile phones for security reasons. Chechens, DNR, and prolly Wagner have no such restriction.
oie9am on September 02, 2022 · at 9:25 am EST/EDT

Well then, thanks for the great weekend music Saker !

Here everyone is talking about Russia and the Ukraine, and the SMOW (special military operation war) and not about music… and not a lot on the conflict to include the Washington – London brigades either… I know it’s a sitrep thread on the Russian SMO, but close to a world war around the corner, and on the propaganda battle field now, not to mention the nuclear threat.

The propaganda is profoundly evil and destroying, it must be truly overwhelming for the Russian people. Do you honestly believe that they don’t care about the west, the best of its culture,music, art, films, clothes and more ? And same with the Ukraine, they have family there, friends, strong ties beyond time. And same too for Putin, he is a human being and it must be devastating.
But, he is the President of Russia, and should speak.
James on September 02, 2022 · at 11:15 am EST/EDT

As one who has seen Larry Coryell, Andres Segovia, Bert Jansch, John Renbourn, Les Paul, Frank Vignola Charlie Byrd Chet Atkins Tony Rice and countless other great guitar players in concert, I have to say keep presenting these fabulous musical gems to your readers. Your geopolitical analyses are also most welcome.Great work
- Pedro Paulo on September 02, 2022 · at 10:09 pm EST/EDT
  
  Andrei, thank you here from brazil for the excellent tips on good music. God bless you
Nate on September 02, 2022 · at 9:00 pm EST/EDT

Some videos for today (more of the war footage that CNN/BBC will never let you see).

Look what washed ashore after Zelensky’s failed attempt yesterday at seizing the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (18+ footage, at least one corpse had a mysterious “Blackwater Division” patch on it, suggesting that US mercenaries were involved):

https://www.bitchute.com/video/cIljacizAaoG/

Footage showing Zelensky’s failed offensive against liberated Kherson oblast getting blasted (some 18+ material here):

https://www.bitchute.com/video/2AX0H7pIoiHk/

Another video showing the results of Zelensky’s failed offensive (18+):

https://www.bitchute.com/video/W1j6tP2XUaJN/

Russian artillery hitting Kiev regime forces hard as they tried, but failed, to advance against liberated Kherson oblast:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/SrwjF3kwvCJ8/

A Russian strike blew up a Kiev regime ammunition depot near Nikolayev:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/6OB6am1XHxfk/

Russian attack helicopters strike Kiev regime positions:

https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/KA52:cd

Russian Uragan MLRS hit enemy positions:

https://rutube.ru/video/a565ed67d888e6932e7eaf0ecf0e7ee4/
ZOFH on September 03, 2022 · at 6:37 am EST/EDT

About the microdrones:

It might not have been the russian’s “job” to equip the LDNR with this stuff, but i don’t see why they didn’t do it. I mean those are basically toyplanes you can buy for cheap in any functional economy. Problem is ukraine does not have a properly functioning economy. But russia does! So why not buy a few hundred toyplanes for the price of a single russian missile and help out the LDNR? This is peanuts, so i just don’t see a reason not to do it.
televist on September 03, 2022 · at 9:59 am EST/EDT

Many thanks! Pierre’s 4AM is outstanding!!
Shakesvshav on September 03, 2022 · at 12:34 pm EST/EDT

I will give your musical suggestions a whirl, though I tend to favour symphonic music over other kinds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlcByU9-Lho
edFerreira on September 03, 2022 · at 5:54 pm EST/EDT

Hey Saker, I follow religiously your music tips here, you have this extraordinarily sofisticated taste! Thank you Sir!
john1 on September 04, 2022 · at 12:01 pm EST/EDT

A mercenary’s bodycam records his last moments on earth, somewhere in Ukraine.

к Бандере иностранного наёмника.
https://twitter.com/AlbatrosZV/status/1566432659135467521
- helmutn on September 05, 2022 · at 10:55 am EST/EDT
  
  john1-leider führt der Link nicht zum Ziel.Twitter wird ihn wohl eliminiert haben.Schade drum !
christoph on September 04, 2022 · at 1:02 pm EST/EDT

Good evening
many thanks for an excellent situation report! I agree 100% with most of your analyses and conclusions.
Christoph, Bern, Switzerland
Jean de Peyrelongue on September 05, 2022 · at 9:02 am EST/EDT

Concerning the war, I hear you but it is not by killing a few thousands ukrainians soldiers that the war will stop soon. As long as the Kiev’s regime is in place, the war will last with UK and US support. Meanwhile most european countries will go down the drain, France included.
Petri Krohn on September 05, 2022 · at 1:12 pm EST/EDT

Did Finland give Ukraine Leopard 2A4 tanks?

On Saturday @Rybar reported that the third wave of Ukrainian forces to enter the Andreevka salient was armed with German Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks. The report may be false, so far there is no visual confirmation of this. The report caused speculation as to where the Leopards might have come from. Spain was suggested as the source, but according to public information, Spain decided to not send its tanks to Ukraine after all.

If the report on the Leopard 2s is true, then I suspect the tanks came from Finland.

Here is the original @Rybar report:

The battle for Kherson: the situation in the Andreevsky sector as of 20.00 on September 3 of the year

During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to completely occupy the village of Blagodatovka , using the crossing set up by the Russian Armed Forces the day before, and unblock the troops surrounded on the southern bank of the Ingulets.

▪️ The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has concentrated all available reserves and forces to expand the bridgehead on the Andreevsky sector of the front: near Posad-Pokrovsky, near Vysokopolie, and near Snigirevka, enemy activity is limited to rare shelling and the activity of small groups.

▪️ Along the route Bereznegovatoe village – Bereznegovatoe station – Ternovka – Blagodatovka – Andreevka the transfer of equipment and personnel to the southern coast continues. German “Leopards” were seen, as well as something similar to the Finnish ZSU ItPsv 90 (Marksman).

▪️ Most likely, at least one pontoon crossing was partially restored in the Andreevka area: until the middle of the day, trucks with crushed stone and soil ran there, which poured an earthen embankment.

▪️ The amount of equipment transferred to the south coast has decreased: eyewitnesses report that the flow is starting to dry up. People are brought in civilian trucks and regular buses, after crossing the Ingulets they are dispersed in groups along the forest plantations along the coast.

…

https://t.me/rybar/38157

@Rybar later continued:

Apparently, the entire company set of Italian Leopard 2A4s has now been transferred to the Andreevsky sector of the front.

Now they are in the bare steppe without the support of air defense systems in Sukhoi Headquarters in the zone of destruction of Russian artillery and aviation.

UPD: The source corrects that we can talk about 2A6.

UPD 2: Understood. Most likely, we are talking about the Spanish 2A4. A month and a half ago, they just lit up while loading in one of the ports of Europe.

https://t.me/rybar/38159

@tacticalnecktie responds by speculating about the Spanish origin of the Leopard 2A4s, but rejects it.

Finland has 200 Leopard 2A4s and 2A6s, bought from Germany in the early 2000s and from the Netherlands in 2014. Finland also has some two dozen auxiliary tanks based on the Leopard 2, including the Leopard 2 Marksman anti-aircraft tank.

The Finnish “ZSU ItPsv 90 (Marksman)” no longer exist. Only seven were ever made in Finland, using a British turret and a Swiss 35 mm gun (the same as in the German Flakpanzer Gepard), all this placed on a T-55 tank platform of Polish origin. The tanks were retired in 2010, but in 2015 the turrets were transferred to Leopard 2 platforms. The combination is now called the “Leopard 2 Marksman”.

The Russian identification of the tanks as “something similar to the Finnish ZSU ItPsv 90 (Marksman)” is weird. It can be based partly on the signature of the British Marconi Series 400 radar. Russian naming for odd Western weapons is not always up to NATO standards. Yesterday the Russian MoD called the Dutch YPR-765 a “Bradley”.

If the identification of the Leopard 2 Marksman is correct, and if the Leopard 2 Marksman was fighting in the same unit as other Leopard 2s, then one can assume all came from the same country, namely Finland.

Finland has sent seven batches of weapons to Ukraine. The first batch may have contained 100,000 Chinese Kalashnikov derivatives. No information on the contents of the other batches has been published. Photos published yesterday from the Kherson front show a Soviet-made ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft autocannon with Finnish language markings and boilerplates all over it.

Transporting dozens of Leopard 2s to Ukraine could only happen by railways. If this happened somewhere in Western Europe, it would have been noticed and reported on social media.

A Wasp-class amphibious assault ship of the United States Navy, the USS Kearsarge visited Finland in early August, and after stoping in Helsinki for a few days, held secret “exercises” with Finnish forces in the “Hanko area”. Hanko is a port city with good railway connections. After leaving Finland, the USS Kearsarge docked in Klaipėda, Lithuania on 20 August. The Wasp-class amphibious assault ship have a well-deck sized 81 by 15.2 meters. It can fit 40 Leopard 2s. If the Ukrainian Leopard 2A4s exist, and if they are of Finnish origin, then I believe they were transported aboard the USS Kearsarge to Lithuania, and from there by rail through Poland to the Ukraine.
- Lone Wolf on September 05, 2022 · at 9:28 pm EST/EDT
  
  @ Petri Krohn on September 05, 2022 · at 1:12 pm EST/EDT
  
  Thanks.
  
  Excellent post and investigative work.
  
  I was left wondering if the fog of war confused observers about the tanks origin, given the Spaniards categorically deny supplying Ukraine with Leo’s. They could be Finnish, and they would also be finished rather soon, FAB-500 at work.
  
  Cheers,
  
  Lone Wolf
Mad Serbian on September 07, 2022 · at 11:28 pm EST/EDT

Its such a pleasure seeing you back to your best dear Saker and together with Mr Martyanov, you both offer so,me of the best analysis of greater geopolitics and Russsian studies so long may it continue!