Do you remember President Clinton ordered two US aircraft carrier battle groups into the Strait of Taiwan in 1996 to “send a message” to China? Well, it appears that Barak Obama, the lame duck spineless multi-humiliated and multi-defeated President of the US of A just had a surge of testosterone and decided to provoke China yet again by mocking its decision to extend its air defense zone over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. The way Uncle Sam sent his usual message of imperial contempt was to send two B-52 bombers to flout the Chinese air defense zone. Not content to do something so mind-bogglingly stupid and irresponsible, the Americans also decided to make sure to add an inflammatory statement. According to the BBC, (emphasis added)
US Colonel Steve Warren at the Pentagon said Washington had “conducted operations in the area of the Senkakus”. “We have continued to follow our normal procedures, which include not filing flight plans, not radioing ahead and not registering our frequencies,” he said. There had been no response from China, he added.
Brilliant, no?
The geniuses at the Pentagon sent two strategic bombers (capable of nuclear strikes) directly into an airspace which the Chinese have just declared “air defence identification zone” in which non-compliance with Chinese rules would trigger “emergency defensive measures” and to make sure to inflict the maximal amount of loss of face on China they have essentially mocked the Chinese for not taking any measure.
I would qualify all these actions as criminally reckless and phenomenally stupid.
First, imagine just for a second that the Chinese had shot down the two US bombers. Then what? Would the US which did not even have the balls to strike Iran or Syria attack China? The US sure could not go to the UNSC for support where they would be laughed out from the Council chambers by both Russia and China and, probably most other UNSC members too. So did the Americans count on the Chinese doing the right thing? If that is the case, then the only message sent to Beijing is “look, we are irresponsible and reckless, and we count on your sanity”. This is most unlikely to impress anybody in China.
Second, now that the Chinese did the smart thing and ignored the US stupidity, what has this move achieved beyond alienating China even further? One really ought to know absolutely nothing about Asia to believe that you can impose a major loss of face on a superpower like China and not have to pay dearly for it. The big difference between the US and China is that the former acts like a spoiled teenager brat with an attention and memory span in the 5-10 minutes range: “The Chinese did not attack our bombers – that must mean that we taught them a good lesson!”. Wrong. The Chinese will make you pay – dearly – for each such humiliation (and God knows there have been many such humiliations the past couple of decades – remember the Chinese embassy in Belgrade?), but they will make you pay on their own time, when they decide, and that could take literally centuries. Chinese diplomats and politicians have 4000 years of experience dealing with uneducated and uncivilized barbarians and they know how important it is not to act in haste but with slow focused determination. And they will remember that humiliation for as long as it takes to avenge it.
Third, does anybody in the Pentagon, Foggy Bottom or the White House really think that US colonies allies in the region will be positively impressed? Of course not! Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese diplomats will be horrified to be associated to a such a sorry bunch of nuke-wielding cowboys, but they will keep their mouths shut because they all know that their countries are simply vassal states of the USPACOM province of the US Empire.
Lastly, what has the US proven to the rest of the world. That is is powerful? Hardly. Having lost the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, having lost control of Libya, and having been defeated by Russia and Iranian diplomats over Syria and Iran, the US is an obese and obnoxious giant, but hardly a powerful one. Yes, it is reckless to send bombers literally into China’s backyard (or doorstep – pick you metaphor), but recklessness is not a quality which impresses anybody in Asia and the Americans are deeply deluded if they think that they “scared” the Chinese. Truly, the one thing that this latest US provocation has achieved is to prove to the world and, especially, Asia, the US simply does not understand the nature and purpose of diplomacy.
I am personally take no position whatsoever on the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute itself. What I am saying is that type of dispute can only be resolved with careful and time consuming diplomatic negotiations and measures and that if Japan truly wanted to get China to give up its claim on these islands the best way to do that would be to make sure that this does not involve any loss of face. But for a country which has not had Administration capable of diplomacy since the years of George Bush (senior) the kind of provocation we have just witnessed is par for the course.
In conclusion, I would like to say here that US politicians are wrong to be ignorant of Hegel’s dialectics and its rules. Gradual quantitative changes (over time) do eventually result in qualitative changes and this very much applies to the Chinese military which is currently embarked on a huge program of deep modernization and reform which, when completed, will result in a profound strategic shift in the Asian-Pacific Ocean region. In contrast to the aging and completely overstreched US armed forces, the Chinese armed forces are catching up and catching up really fast. Yes, in the 1980s the Chinese military did look at lot like the Soviet military of the late 1950s, but the economic boom of China has deeply changed this and today the Chinese armed forces are gradually acquiring more and more 21 century characteristics and soon they will easily surpass the capabilities of the ROK and Japan. Next, and before the folks in the White House fully understand it, the US will be facing a large and technologically equal or even superior Chinese military. China is also being very smart in forging and informal but truly strategic alliance with Russia which, unlike the USA, does every effort possible to show respect and support for its large neighbor. Should it ever come to a shooting match between the US and China there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that Russia will offer its fullest support for China short of actually attacking US targets.
In the meantime, US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel that China’s extension of its air defense zone was “destabilising attempt to alter the status quo in the region” while the White House said it was “unnecessarily inflammatory“.
Yeah, right.
Have these cowboys ever looked into a mirror?
The Saker
It’s really difficult to fault this analysis. Even the righteous anger is well placed and valid. Especially this bit “will result in a profound strategic shit in the Asian-Pacific Ocean region.”
Would tha Obama could read.
Some years ago (2008) a contributor to Asia Times launched a successful formula: “America plays Monopoly, Russians chess” (he liked it so much that it repeated it recently: “US plays Monopoly, Russians play chess”, in 2013). A lively discussion ensued on his forum. Some smart people (Americans)amended the formula: Americans play poker, because the achievers have no time to waste. Someone poured some cold water: Americans play poker with trumped cards and if their bluff is called they pull the gun. But beware of the Chinese, they play GO!
WizOz
@ G Mitchell:profound strategic shit
LOL! I did write that, didn’t I?! A typo, Freudian slip, or a very appropriate way of expressing a thought? I don’t know, and I did correct it to a more polite “shift” though with some regret, I have to admit :-)
@WizOz: “US plays Monopoly/Poker – Russians play Chess – the Chinese play Go”
I think that this is a very apt metaphor, really. One could write an entire thesis on this topic (maybe somebody will one day). All I can say, from my very limited knowledge of Chinese history and philosophy, is that they probably have the most sophisticated and refined corpus of studies about topics like strategy, state building, international relations, trade, etc. Also, as far as I can tell, they are also a world-class trading/business culture, like Jew and Anglo-Saxons, whereas Russians have a primarily warrior culture. In other words, the Chinese might offer a more complex and multi-faceted opponent to the USA than Russia ever did. I remember seeing cities in Asia outside China (Indonesia, Thailand, etc.) which all had large Chinese immigrant communities (often in Chinatowns) and thinking that this is also a very sophisticated way to extend your influence (how many “Japantowns” can you find outside Japan?).
I cannot claim to understand much about China, but the little I do know leads me to admire the Chinese very much and to strongly believe that anybody underestimating this formidable nation does so at great peril.
Full disclosure: I hate Monopoly which I find stupid, I am a very bad Poker player, a pretty good Chess player and my wife easily beats me at Go every time we play. So I am biased in these matters :-)
Cheers,
The Saker
Pretty high stakes stuff. Delusions of Kennedyhood. It *does* tend to invalidate the Chinese airspace claim, but I have no doubt there will be considerable payback. So, it’s a schoolyard move.
@John-Albert: it’s a schoolyard move.
Exactly! A dumb pre-teen armed with nukes.. Scary thought. And then the very same people tell us that Iran with nukes would be a danger. Except that Iran would never do something so reckless.
I have no doubt there will be considerable payback
Oh hell yes, here are several options for that:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/30/us-china-economy-shanghai-idUSTRE80T05520120130
http://rt.com/business/foreign-currency-china-reserves-075/
http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/china-has-begun-limited-deployment-new-antiship-ballistic-missile-pentagon/
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2013/4044ca_rus_respond_threat.html
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-10/31/c_132845754.htm
So yes, the “writing in on the wall” – but that does little good when the moron siting in the White House is illiterate (not literally, of course, but politically).
Cheers!
The Saker
On short memory spans..and the Chinese long vision.
I don’t want to appear like I know a lot about Plato but doesn’t Solon say somethinglike ‘you Greeks are like children, your memories only reach back a few generations whereas the Egyptian priests, their records go back thousands..
( They had figured out the Great Year. That took a while. )
Anyway, having a mind wired for lateral thinking – not always a comfortable thing if you are an Anglo – I have been chewing over for a while this Year of the Snake thing.
I think this peace of folklore – for us rationalists – hides some very sage Oriental wisdom after all.
In fine.The Year of the Snake – which we are now in – would be the year of a sort of pivotal knot in human affairs.
A bit like a cog moving a second hand forward one place.
Before you cry nutcase how about, for your contemplation, some other Years of the Snake.
;
1941. Pearl Harbour.
1989. End of year.The first McDonald’s in Moscow,and on February 7 1990 -still the Year of the Snake –
The Communist Party of the Soviet Union votes to end its monopoly of power
2001. The Big Lie!.
2013′ The Big Liar backs down!
just sayin.
They’re shifting their resources and focus in the Asia pacific, so expect a lot of instability and disputes in the years to come. More island disputes and sea disputes and the India- china border dispute to kick off again.
US will most likely arm the whole region to the teeth and make a security pact with all the islands by creating a “china threat” which it needs to justify its presence. They’re already investing heavily in India as a counter weight.
@anybody underestimating…
You are absolutely right. I had the opportunity to live in Thailand for a sufficiently long time to gain more than a “turistic” understanding of the Chinese (and Asians in general). There I found out that the Chinese represented 10% of the population but controlled 90% of the economy. That was in 1985. I was telling people back in Europe how the future was shaping. They were laughing at me. Trouble is that they are still laughing. Still they don’t get it.
I remember that around 2000 or so the Chinese announced that they created an Institute or more, to study the history of all crises in the past in order to learn from past mistakes and devise long term strategies to counter any. This is probably what Go does.
Cheers,
WizOz
A Paper Tiger Roared again…
(I mean China)
Everyone should know the Law without executive Powers is a sham, a very dangerous sham.
China knows it, US knows it.
How come the Chinese conjured up such stupid move which would bring only a lost of face or humiliation to China?
Did China do it purposefully? Then why?
I expect from The Saker another rant but this time lashing out China for her reckless move.
By the way. As far as payback is concerned:
Saker – “remember the Chinese embassy in Belgrade”.
http://tiny.pl/qrjd4
Me – remember Hainan?
http://tiny.pl/qrjdk
Regards
Hi Saker,
Hope the holiday was great.
Yes China will take it’s time in reviewing the situation, (sorry had to put that in :-) )
They could quickly show their displeasure by dropping 10 Billion on the money market just to make a point. That sum is small enough not to cause too much of a shake up on the markets, however Uncle Sam will need to run the presses to take up the slack as they are already buying a lot of their own debt. A situation that is impossible to maintain for long without severe consequences for both the USA and the world in general.
Just my 2 cents worth.
Cheers
KamNam
On another note,
I posted these links on Penny’s Blog as you were on Holiday.
After your piece on the Ukraine you have made some of my thoughts clearer, however my concerns re destabilization of Ukraine as a “no sum game” by usa is still a concern, may I have your thoughts please.
Links
http://www.anna-news.info/node/12859
I have lost the other link,
It had to do with the USA having a new Airbase in Romania as the extraction base for US and NATO troops from Afganistan. It also offers the chance of fueling the colour revolution with Ukraine as the country’s population is split between East and West anyway.
Thanks
Look forward to your opinion on this.
Cheers
KamNam
B52’s!? These air planes are older than the pilots flying them.
The only use of them is to launch cruise missiles. If they would go on a live mission like that they’ll operate out of Guam or Diego Garcia, the first bases to be blown up by China in case of war.
Subconsciously the Americans have now entered the Kamikaze fase. At least the Japanese knew their time was up.
USA doesnt mind UK or France having nuclear bombs, so why didnt the Empire let Japan to join the nuclear club and sort their dispute with China by thenselves?
I spotted a typo @ Chinese will “may” you pay.
@Snoopy: I spotted a typo @ Chinese will “may” you pay.
Thanks a lot, I corrected it. And the Asia Times editors did spot ir themselves and fixed it too.
@EVERYBODY
Ah, my endless typos.. I *HATE* them there is nothing I can do about them simply because 1) I am a terrible writer 2) I simply don’t have the time to proof-read my stuff, 3) I am an extremely bad proof-reader and 4) I am also an extremely slow proof-reader.
I never was an academic or literary type. What I used to do for a living was to write analytical reports in which spelling, and even grammar, were basically irrelevant as long as the meaning could be understood. But then 99% of what I wrote in those days never got published but only circulated on a limited amount of desks.
Now I very much regret that. I wish I could write in a halfway decent fashion. All this is to say that
a) I sincerely apologize for my sloppy writing technique.
b) I am very grateful for any corrections you can contribute.
Many thanks and kind regards,
The Saker
Maybe the Americans know that the money faced warlords running China have no guts other than running down their own Chinese people (中國人打中國人), stealing money from peasants (老百姓) to buy properties in US and taking other Chinese’ pretty wives as concubines.
The writer spoke of 4000 years of Chinese history, how did the Chinese got it so wrong with Opium and why do they continue to spat on the streets.
@Anonymous2211:US will most likely arm the whole region to the teeth and make a security pact with all the islands by creating a “china threat” which it needs to justify its presence.
True
They’re already investing heavily in India as a counter weight.
India is keeping its card close to its chest but they are a big member of BRICS and their military collaboration with Russia is such that one has to speak of an alliance, really. I think that India and China also have common enemies (Wahabi Islam, Anglosphere) and that this also will lead these two regional superpowers to collaborate. For all these reasons I don’t see India as a possible counter weight to China.
@WizOz: the Chinese represented 10% of the population but controlled 90% of the economy. That was in 1985.
Exactly. And there are large Chinese communities literally all over Asia, all in contact with mainland China, all very skilled at business.
@KamNam:They could quickly show their displeasure by dropping 10 Billion on the money market just to make a point.
Correct. The fact is that the Chinese are holding the USA by their (financial) balls and that so far they have been gently stoking them, to the great pleasure of the Americans (Walmart, Dollar Store, etc.). But they can brutally squeeze these balls at any time of their choosing and that is the reality which the Americans are determined to ignore because it is too scary to really dwell
my concerns re destabilization of Ukraine as a “no sum game” by usa is still a concern, may I have your thoughts please.
I am not sure I understand your question. Could you please clarify it for me? (sorry!)
@Anonymous0804:B52’s!? These air planes are older than the pilots flying them. The only use of them is to launch cruise missiles
True, but they are still excellent platforms for that purpose. The Russians also use old aircraft for this type of missions, the formidable yet ancient Tu-95MS.
@Anonymous0922: why didnt the Empire let Japan to join the nuclear club and sort their dispute with China by thenselves?
First because Uncle Sam is not going to trust “nukes to gooks”. Second, the Japanese do not want nukes (they could build them if they wanted to) because that would porentially make them a legitimate target for nuclear strikes. Third, Japan has committed itself to remain nucelar free and essentially only defensive. Whether that will change in the future is anyone’s guess.
I would like to start by stating that I am usually a big fan of your analyses, but it seems to me that this time perhaps you got carried away by anger/emotions over American actions, or perhaps China is not your area of expertise? Ok, so not losing too many words about the US, which is ruling the world by coercion, and the wisdom of sending B52 bombers. But China faces a real legitimacy problem here, and it may well turn into a watershed moment.
So let’s recapitulate, China is very fond of a rules-based multipolar world order, where disputes between sovereign states are solved by resorting to law and negotiations. This is the typical position of a weak actor, because international law gives little consideration to the size of your military. It is also a smart position to take in a multi-polar world, where many power blocks exist, and even if they’re not equally powerful, the cost of taking on any one of them in a direct confrontation would be prohibitive. The EU is all about a rules-based negotiated international order, both because it sincerely believes that this is a good model, and because it is weak and couldn’t have it any other way.
This principled position of China had always been very popular among NAM – countries, the global south, assorted emerging powers, and even Russia. Now China shows its true face, and makes it plain for everyone to see, that as soon as it gets the slightest chance to do so, it will use aggressive coercion tactics and the threat of force. China has done so in most of the territorial disputes around its shores, and it surprises me because its shooting itself in the foot several times:
1. Instead of the hero of every underdog country in the world, China starts to look like a huge bully.
2. Rather than trying to take all the opportunities there are, to peacefully settle each of the territorial disputes through negotiations (and in that respect, the one with Japan may be one of the harder ones) it alienates the surrounding countries and potential negotiation partners through its aggressive stance and drives them into the arms of the US.
3. China plays hardball before actually having developed the full ability to do so. It cannot credibly back up its belligerent behavior, and of course Uncle Sam feasts on that. So not only does it upset potential partners, it also becomes a joke because the US puts them in their place. Slightly reminiscent of France, which also often wants to pretend it is a world power, but lacks the instruments to back it up.
Then of course I miss in your article a discussion of the wisdom of setting up this ADIZ by China in the first place. Why now? It can hardly be a military necessity, it looks much more like an intentional escalation of the dispute with Japan. Hardly a praiseworthy choice in light of 2 and 3.
Would be interested to hear if you see the same dilemma in China’s actions.
Best
bah, what a cranky rant-
Saker we expect more of you than banging on the lectern with your shoe!
China’s resource grab from every country of SE asia is the teenage motive.
I understand that your innate slavic racism keeps you from being able to grant Obama any diplomatic chops for his 4 dimensional chess skills (see iran/ wahhabi switcheroo). But I do like to read things from your white russian angle, just as I like to read the reaganite/likudnik Spengler: the bracing vinegar tang that points to a once noble vintage gone wrong…
@ David Kainrath, Old Yankee, Anonymous0343:
“Rant? Cranky? What about China?”
Fair enough. First, this absolutely is a pissed-off, cranky, angry, outraged, irate, etc. rant. Absolutely. And I make no bones about it: I am pissed at whoever took the decision to send B-52 right into China’s backyard. Why? Because I find this kind of attitude absolutely reckless, irresponsible, etc. If the Chinese, Russians or anybody else had done something like that, I would have been no less pissed. However, I must also confess that I do not believe that the USA has *any* right, much less so obligation/duty/mission/calling/etc to right the wrongs outside its borders and immediate vicinity thereof. Its not Taiwan, or the Japanese, or the Koreans, or the Russians which acted like irresponsible imbeciles, but Americans whose presence in the region I consider to be an imperialistic invasion to begin with. So the ones with the least legitimacy but the most imperial arrogance yet again took a completely irresponsible action. Yeah, that will get me pissed. Every time. And I make no apologies for it.
“What about the Chinese action”?
That is a fair question, so I have to address it. First, as I said, I don’t have a personal opinion on the core of the issue. Second, I do not particularly like any unilateral action in particularly not one which can give the pretext for such outright dangerous over-reactions by the USA. HOWEVER,
==>>you cannot compare a statement and an action<<==
What China did is to make a statement, a declaration. What the US did is to take a military action (even if purely symbolic, this action did involve armed forces). These are two fundamentally different levels. THEN
==>>you cannot compare local and outside actors<<==
This is a dispute between China, Japan and Taiwan. The US has absolutely no right to play the worldwide enforcer of the US understanding of the freedom to fly, sail, drive or anything else. What would the White House say if China decided to challenge US airspace control over, say, Hawaii?
So while I am in no way condoning or excusing what the Chinese did, I categorically refuse to accept the notion that both parties acted in a similarly irresponsible way.
In conclusion, I will also say this: any country that actually likes to fancy itself as some kind of world policeman would have to at least try to act more responsibly than the other nations it wants to police. But having a reckless wannabe cop with a big gun and no brains is really a scary thing, especially when this potentially involves nukes.
Cheers!!
The Saker
@Old Yankee: your innate slavic racism keeps you from being able to grant Obama
Wow, did I really just read this? LOL, I missed it the first time around, I guess.
Ok, Old Yankee, let me help you here. The very notion that there is such a thing like an “innate slavic racism” is itself 100% racist :-) Now, as I have written this over and over and over again on this blog, there ain’t no such thing as a smart racist, so I am not at all surprised that you did not realize that. (Another surefire hint at an IQ at below room temperature was the reference to Obama’s 4D chess (?) or the clumsy attempt at a vinegar-based ad hominem). Bottom line – you are just making yourself look like the idiot that you are and I would suggest that there are plenty of other blogs out there were that would be less painfully obvious. That is just a suggestion, of course. You are free to post here as much as you want – I never censor comments – but you will excuse me for not replying to them any more as I really have better things to do.
Take care and all the best!
The Saker
“the Japanese do not want nukes (they could build them if they wanted to) because that would porentially make them a legitimate target for nuclear strikes.”
Sure, the japanese people dont want nukes, but Shinto Abe would like to have it. And this would also force South Korea to own nukes too and, in a blink of an eye, would liberate these countries from US control.
And another point, indiferent to Japan has nuke or not, if there is a war between US and China or Russia, Japan would be a target, just as those countries in Europe that have US nuclear arms, because nobody could guarantee that USA, in a life and death nuclear war, would not use their nuclear arms in those countries to strike China or Russia.
So, the empire with her brinkmanship is already endangering all those countries.
Is the Old Doodle Dandy a little hasbaratchick? He likes Spengler.
WizOz
@WizOZ:Is the Old Doodle Dandy a little hasbaratchick?
Yes, the thought did also cross my mind because he must be getting his anti-Slavic racism somewhere, and I don’t think that this ‘somewhere’ are the plains of the Midwest or the rolling hills of upstate NY :-)
Cheers,
The Saker
@EVERYBODY:
Just wanted to share with you a funny email I got today. I get some hate mail from time to time, comes “with the territory” and with speaking my mind honestly and directly. But today, I got a ‘pearl’ of sorts. Check it out: (stress added)
—
Dear Sir:
Reading your most recent article in Asian Times, I feel that you are either a PRC Chinese or you don’t know Chinese at all. First, the incumbent government in Taiwan is a group of refugee Chinese, who are die-hard Chinese and pro-PRC. What ever is the Chinese intention, the Chinese military would have more money for their defence budget, more money into their pocket from corruption. The people of PRC just enjoy their empty Chinese chauvinism.
Regards,
A Taiwanese
—
Awesome, no? The guy has me pegged as either 1) a mainland Chinese or 2) somebody who doesn’t know anything about China. I guess that in this gentleman’s mind somebody who know nothing about China is the closet thing you can get to a mainland Chinese.
The rest of the email makes no sense and whatever sense it might have intended to make would be a non-sequitur to my post anyway.
Anyway – I just wanted to share that one with you.
For those of you who do celebrate Thanksgiving – happy celebration!
Kind regards,
The Saker
@Is the Doodle Dandy…,
Exactly. I was wondering why was he quoting Spengler. He read your piece on Atimes, not on the blog, and there was a piece of the usual rantings of Spengler the Chief Hasbaratchik about the death of Gentile civilisations who out of envy for the “living” one are hellbent to “annihilate it”.
WizOz
@WizOz: the Chinese represented 10% of the population but controlled 90% of the economy. That was in 1985.
@Saker: Exactly. And there are large Chinese communities literally all over Asia, all in contact with mainland China, all very skilled at business.
But why are those Chinese not in mainland China in the first place? Where are their loyalties? A “Lords of the Rim” analysis would put their loyalty to their wallets first and foremost, which is often a good guess anyway. Their contacts to the mainland would be of an economic, rather than a political or patriotic nature. After all, China is (nominally) communist, but the guys “controlling the economies” of the rim by capitalist means can hardly be suspected to favor communism. So yes, ethnically and culturally Chinese, often enough economically in contact , but can they be “controlled” by China to act in the interest of the PRC?
@KamNam:They could quickly show their displeasure by dropping 10 Billion on the money market just to make a point.
I wonder at what point China will evaluate the real value of their dollar holdings and actually discard the nominal loss they would be making by “dropping billions” on the market. They will surely assume there will be a loss at some point, but what is their strategy to cope with it and alleviate it as much as possible? (Not so) secretly increasing their precious metal stocks over the years might be a good hedge.
Makes me wonder how Russia got rid off their dollar reserves, while China seems to be unable to do so. And how much the petro dollar issue still is an issue for the US. Or is the recent (over-hyped) Iran rapprochement a step towards reestablishing the dollar as the petro currency in Persia? (Actually, nothing has changed really in that regards) Iran apparently isn’t banned from trading in gold since the recent agreement. -> So it can attract and lure away Chinese gold?
Anyway, these last ramblings are just unreflected thoughts and questions I’d appreciate elaboration on by the “Saker community”.
Honk
Interesting new developments. Australia jumped on the iceberg, criticizing China and denying without being asked that it was at the pressure of USA (therefore admitting it). China called the criticism “irresponsible” and “mistaken” and alluded that it will affect the relations between the two countries. Of course the OzGov denied that this could possibly have any bearing on the relations.
And that on the background of the worsening of relations with Indonesia!
Australia continue to fancy herself as the Uncle Sam sheriff in Pacific.
WizOz
@Honk: I’d appreciate elaboration on by the “Saker community”.
To have a community of people freely and intelligently talking talking to each other was one of the main objectives of this blog and I am absolutely delighted that such a community is slowly building itself, if only because of the numerous topics in which I lack any competence in contrast to the often very high-quality comments left by community members. And I sure hope that they will answer you this time around too.
But why are those Chinese not in mainland China in the first place? Where are their loyalties? A “Lords of the Rim” analysis would put their loyalty to their wallets first and foremost, which is often a good guess anyway. Their contacts to the mainland would be of an economic, rather than a political or patriotic nature. After all, China is (nominally) communist, but the guys “controlling the economies” of the rim by capitalist means can hardly be suspected to favor communism. So yes, ethnically and culturally Chinese, often enough economically in contact , but can they be “controlled” by China to act in the interest of the PRC?
My experience with these communities is limited (maybe WizOz can give you a better answer) but my sens is is that it all depends on the individual Chinese. However, speaking and an emigre myself, I can attest that the vast majority emigres keep contacts with their country of origin and that they all potentially represent a resource even if they don’t particularly like the regime in power. Look at the Iranian community in the USA which is by no means pro Islamic Republics but which is mostly strongly oppose to a US attack on Iran. Finally, a percentage X of these emigres will have interests linking them to the state, these can be economic interests, shadowy interests through the triads, or outright collaboration with the government services, so no matter what, a big community of exiles is an asset for the mother-country. The key to that is to see how sophisticated the state is in advancing its influence and contacts with the emigres – always a delicate task – but I have no reasons to believe that the Chinese are clumsy at this task.
My 2cts.
Cheers!
The Saker
P.S. Don’t worry about typos, grammar, or proof-reading of superficialities. Your points come across just fine, and my guess is your time (and good mood) is better spent thinking and writing.
Honk
@Saker So did the Americans count on the Chinese doing the right thing? If that is the case, then the only message sent to Beijing is “look, we are irresponsible and reckless, and we count on your sanity”. This is most unlikely to impress anybody in China.
Although way less dramatic, reminiscent of the incident with the Soviet B-59 during the Cuban Missile Crisis, that has fully come to light a couple years ago and earned Vasili Arkhipov the title “The Man who Saved the World”, a title that until then hadn’t been awarded for some 2000 years. Wikipedia:
On 27 October 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, a group of eleven United States Navy destroyers and the aircraft carrier USS Randolph located the diesel-powered nuclear-armed Soviet Foxtrot-class submarine B-59 near Cuba. Despite being in international waters, the Americans started dropping practice depth charges, explosives intended to force the submarine to come to the surface for identification. There had been no contact from Moscow for a number of days and, although the submarine’s crew had earlier been picking up U.S. civilian radio broadcasts, once B-59 began attempting to hide from its U.S. Navy pursuers, it was too deep to monitor any radio traffic, so those on board did not know whether war had broken out. The captain of the submarine, Valentin Grigorievitch Savitsky, believing that a war might already have started, wanted to launch a nuclear torpedo.
Three officers on board the submarine – Savitsky, the political officer Ivan Semonovich Maslennikov, and the second-in-command Arkhipov – were authorized to launch the torpedo if agreeing unanimously in favor of doing so. An argument broke out among the three, in which only Arkhipov was against the launch.
Honk
@Maybe WizOz can give a better answer…
What I wanted to stress was that the attitude of “but the Opium wars?” or “they continue to spat(?) on the streets” is largely irrelevant. If they “spat” it means that they don’t spit anymore (there is a large campaign to teach the Chinese not to spit on the street and not to fart in public). And the opium wars took place some 150 years ago! Many people still think like that. I have heard, recently, the question: the Chinese may have invented the rockets and the gun powder, but what did they do with them? Fireworks (with a wink and a grin)! Not so long ago I’ve heard someone telling me seriously that the “yellows” have problems with driving and flying because a particular conformation of their brains! This sounds funny, it is. But there were people who were adamant that the Chinese won’t ever be able to modernize because of their writing, they must adopt the alphabet.
The general idea was that you underestimate the Chinese at your own peril.
WizOz
Saker,
Tonight I had dinner with one of Wang Jisi’s students, who is a smart analyst of US-Japan-China trilateral relations. The student agreed with your assessment of the B52 incursion.
Have a good holiday.
@Saker
thanks for your reply! In my view, the US is behaving just like the global empire that it is. Not better, not worse. I believe its completely normal for the top-dog to mark its territory.
I didn’t hear you scream when Russia was exercising air assaults against Sweden this year: http://www.thelocal.se/20130422/47474
Also, even though the Japanese and the Koreans didn’t “invite” the Americans to base themselves in the region initially, I’d think they’re quite happy now to have an offshore balancer to help them deal with big powerful neighbors. What annoys me is that America’s actions are wrapped in layers upon layers of politically correct language, as if the US was some kind of altruistic policeman of the world, that all other countries need in order to not start wars with each other. This is obviously a bs narrative designed to mislead the home audience. But seriously does anybody believe it?
Anyway, China’s dilemma is not going to go away. It somehow has to deal with its neighbors in a grown-up way. Makes it harder of course to have the US cruising around trying to throw spoilers in all the time. In reality I have not seen any major initiatives by China though which could have been spoiled in the first place.
As far as I have understood there are two issues at play. Oil and gas in the seas surrounding the disputed islands, and free access to the pacific for China’s ships. As I have understood it, the islands along China’s east and south coasts are all controlled by other countries, and with the help of them, the US navy could basically strangle all Chinese shipping. It can deny the Chinese navy area access, and it could blockade cargo ships, oil tankers etc. The understanding is, that if China had sovereignty over some of these islands, it could establish naval bases there, which would free the PLAN (chinese navy) from coastal confinement to operate in deep waters of the pacific.
If that is what China wants to achieve, it needs to get some of its neighbors on board, and what better way than by sharing the energy resources, and being generous about it?
Probably completely unrelated, but would you be able to comment about the current conflict between the ‘red’ and ‘yellow’ fractions in Bangkok, Thailand.
My very limited understanding is that the current government is supported by the poor, and the opposition more by the military and neoliberals. This crowd does not seem to be the same as the friendly Thai I met during my vacation there (at the same time when the Tsunami occurred).
The incomprehensable Thai language makes us very vulnerable to spinning and propaganda.
@Anonymous0543: would you be able to comment about the current conflict between the ‘red’ and ‘yellow’ fractions in Bangkok, Thailand.
Alas, no, I am really sorry. I have not followed these events at all, but hopefully somebody more knowledgeable than myself could provide some pointers for you.
Sorry again and kind regards,
The Saker
Sorry Saker, but you drove straight into the bushes on this one. David Kainrath makes valid points in both his posts.
The pissing contest with Japan over the islands is over sea room and energy, just as David says.
Both parties are standing on some misplaced concept of “honour” and allowing that to direct their actions rather than the considerable gains each could make by discussion. If China is to lead Asia after the US is gone, it needs to show leadership early & often, and never, ever schoolyard bravado. The Chinese ADIZ got erased today as Obama’s Red Line was erased 2 months ago. Unfortunately for the Chinese, no Putin – Lavrov tag team was standing by to pull their arse out of the fire. Maybe they’ll show up later, as I suspect – indeed, hope – they will should things heat up in the area.
That Taiwan, the most geographically obvious “owner” of said islands, is silent on the matter speaks to another dilemma in that part of the world where China needs to show maturity and leadership instead of acting like a grasping child.
There is little doubt that China’s stance in both the East & South China Sea has caused their neighbours (and this observer) to wonder what sort of dragon it will be when fully matured. So far, the maturation process seems stunted and they see little to assuage their fears. Almost bizarre territorial claims, referring to some fanciful ancient history for support, don’t make for sound geo-politics and belie the proclaimed desire for good relations.
In this particular case China forgot an old adage, never bring a gun unless you are prepared to use it. They are now a little stunned that their bluff was called and that they look like chumps. Earlier today both S. Korea and Japan also flew through the Zone without so much as a by-your-leave. The mainland’s evening news had plenty of comment on the situation. Lots of tugging at forelocks and scuffing of shoes, trying to explain that the Zone is really quite innocuous and is not an attempt at extending territorial claims, and that it is normal to the defence of any country, etc. My Chinese is spotty enough that I cannot be definitive, but the official “explanations” indicate that China is a little bewildered at the response, doesn’t really know what to do next, and is reconsidering the Zone’s purpose. One commentator seemed to say that the Zone’s announcement was obviously premature, and that China should reconsider.
Somebody was bluffing, or at least seriously miscalculated, and they’ve embarrassed the Government. Xi et al will not be amused, and I imagine that some hotheads in the PLA, or their minders in the Politburo will have some ‘splainin’ to do. Watch for who is quietly retired in the coming months.
I further agree with David that while China has espoused a” rules-based multipolar world order” it will forsake that theme as soon as it thinks it has the power to get away with casting those rules aside. In my experience, that is an inescapable part of the Chinese Weltanschauung, and it applies from the villager to the boardroom. The expression “The mountains are high, and the Emperor is far away” is illustrative of the low regard for rules in everyday life. Modernized by Mao’s “There is no heaven, all is permitted”, we can expect the theme to have continued impact as world affairs unfold.
Erebus
@David K:I didn’t hear you scream when Russia was exercising air assaults against Sweden this year: http://www.thelocal.se/20130422/47474
First, the article itself clearly says that the Russian formation remained in international space. Second, even if the Russians had done something reckless and irresponsible that does not justify the US doing the same. Third, the Russians at least did not go out of their way to humiliate the Swedes. So you are comparing apples and oranges here.
As far as I have understood there are two issues at play. Oil and gas in the seas surrounding the disputed islands, and free access to the pacific for China’s ships.
Yes and no. Yes, that is probably what is at the center of it all. But no, this is not what I am writing about. My post is exclusively centered on ONE thing: the US reaction to the Chinese declaration. To repeat, I am NOT, repeat, NOT, taking sides with China on ANY topics or issue at all and I am NOT supporting China’s claim on the islands. I am NOT EVEN supporting China’s decision to declare an “Sea Air Defense Identification Zone”. ALL I AM DISCUSSING HERE IS THE US RESPONSE.
@Erebus:The pissing contest with Japan over the islands (…) That Taiwan, the most geographically obvious “owner” of said islands, is silent on the matter.
Exactly. This is PRC vs Japan and, possibly, Taiwan. My first objection is that I see no reason why Uncle Sam would get involved. Yes, I am aware of all the rationalizations (allies, treaties, “freedom” of transit, etc. etc.) but I reject them prima facie as rationalizations for US imperialism. My second objection is that even if one accepts, for argument sake, all these rationalizations, the MANNER chosen by the USA is still crude and irresponsible.
It is my deeply held belief that possessing nuclear weapons should put an EXTRA burden of respectability, restraint and predictability upon you which is exactly what the USA has a consistent record of NOT showing.
Again, I am not siding with China in any way, not even by implication. I am simply really pissed at the US for yet again acting like some dumb, illiterate school bully wielding nuclear weapons.
The Saker
Great article, Saker! This episode reminds me of the US U2 overflights of Cuban in the early sixties, when US guards at Guantanamo would pee in front of their Cuban counterparts.
The Cuban regime is still there, while Arab dynasties fall. For thoughts on 2014 see my blog on Firedoglake http://my.firedoglake.com/otherjones/2013/11/27/stealing-a-march-on-2014/
This episode reminds me of US U2 overflights of Cuba in the early sixties, when US guards at Guantanamo would be doing similarly childish things like peeing in front of their Cuban counterparts.
For some thoughts on 2014, see my new piece on Firedoglake http://my.firedoglake.com/otherjones/2013/11/27/stealing-a-march-on-2014/
An interesting read
http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/How-an-Iran-US-Deal-Would-Change-the-Strategic-Landscape.html
Mindfriedo
PS “the MANNER chosen by the USA is still crude and irresponsible.”
If I were Japan and the USA my ally, I would much rather have America do what it just did than read statements or lodge protests.
@Mindfriedo:If I were Japan and the USA my ally, I would much rather have America do what it just did than read statements or lodge protests.
That is definitely a popular choice for many countries (such eastern European countries) and people (Shinzo Abe). It’s like paying the mob protection money, but on a bigger scale. That would never be my choice as I don’t like imperial overlords or Mafia dons (same thing, really) and I know that any “favor” they do “for you” you will have to re-pay them many times over for.
Remember Don Vito Corleone and his “now I need to ask you a small favor”?
Cheers!
The Saker
What the US did not outside of its track record during the cold wars, however, the no response given by the Chinese (the same response also given to Japanese and Korea incursions as well) is however not what’s expected. This is what gathered from Chinese forums regarding the ADIZ:
1. It creates internal pressure for China to raise combat readiness of its troops, against fraction of Chinese government that does not want to do so.
2. Since to prevent future no responses, China will have start combat air patrol of the area, and maintain constant AWACS presence in the region. Therefore, thing that was hard to justify previous, now has justification. Sometime that was provocative before, now has become normal and routine.
3. Since US, Japan, and Korea enters Chinese ADIZ without following Chinese procedure, China can now enter Japanese, Korea, and US ADIZ without doing so either. (something Russians are doing constantly, but China has so far refrain from doing). Now China can rightfully said, we’ll respect your ADIZ when you respect ours.
Dear Saker,
I agree with everything here. If the first law of military strategy is don’t march on Moscow, then the first law of diplomacy should be don’t bluff China because sooner or later your bluff is bound to be called.
I think the fundamental problem is that the US imagines that in its dealings with China it can repeat the same tactics that it repeatedly used against the USSR. If so then what this shows is that the US doesn’t know or understand China very well. Anyone who has any dealings with the Chinese and who is not blinded by arrogance or prejudice quickly realises that they are dealing with the inheritors of a millennium old civilisation with a sense of self confidence and self belief the Russians (unfortunately) have never had. That doesn’t make the Chinese impossible people to deal with – quite the contrary actually. However it does mean that bullying and patronising the Chinese in the end just doesn’t work and is just about the most stupid thing you can do.
For the rest I have read legal analyses of this island dispute and there is no doubt at all in my mind that China is in the legal right. One can take issue with that but at the end of the day this is a quarrel between Japan and China and the US is foolish to meddle in it and become involved. As you rightly say doing so especially in this crass way impresses no one.
Hey Saker I think we agree on the basics, only that we value differently the importance or the gravity of the US’s overflight of the ADIZ.
Concerning the Russian-Swedish analogy. Of course Sweden has an ADIZ over the international waters of the baltic sea, and unless you are taking sides, the US did not fly over Chinese territory either. These Tu-23 bombers could have theoretically been armed with nuclear weapons too right? So much about extra burdens of restrain. Seems like everyone likes to play gun-slinging cowboys these days. Plus, there was no previous belligerent history with Sweden, quite in contrast with China.
Anyway. The big humiliation for Sweden was that this once proud neutral but militarily strong country (relative to it’s small population) didn’t have any of its jets ready to intercept the bombers because some pilot was on sick-leave or parental leave or whatever and the airspace remained undefended. I believe you will find this un-official humiliation quite entertaining ;-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HgXeYUvWSA
Regards
David
I would like to offer a quick response to some of the comments that have been made here.
Obviously China has economic and strategic interests along its Pacific coastline. Obviously China promotes and defends these interests with all the considerable resources it has at its disposal. However to argue from that that China is some of regional bully and that the east Asian states want or need US protection to protect them from China is absurd and to take far too much on trust what is being written about the conflicts in the Asia Pacific by the western press.
Left to themselves there is every reason to think that China and its neighbours would over time come to an accommodation with each other as it is overwhelmingly in their mutual interest to do. They have after all co existed for millennia with each other and they have a long history of generally fruitful interaction with each other.
It is the wilful insertion of itself into these disputes by a self serving and self interested outsider (the US), which is the cause of the tension that exists now. This utterly reckless flight of B52 bombers is a case in point.
@anno: This is what gathered from Chinese forums regarding the ADIZ:
1. It creates internal pressure for China to raise combat readiness of its troops, against fraction of Chinese government that does not want to do so.
2. Since to prevent future no responses, China will have start combat air patrol of the area, and maintain constant AWACS presence in the region. Therefore, thing that was hard to justify previous, now has justification. Sometime that was provocative before, now has become normal and routine.
3. Since US, Japan, and Korea enters Chinese ADIZ without following Chinese procedure, China can now enter Japanese, Korea, and US ADIZ without doing so either. (something Russians are doing constantly, but China has so far refrain from doing). Now China can rightfully said, we’ll respect your ADIZ when you respect ours.
Very interesting points, thanks *a lot*! Your point #2 is now confirmed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-25144465. I sure hope that this is not going to continue to escalate…
@Alexander Mercouris: One can take issue with that but at the end of the day this is a quarrel between Japan and China and the US is foolish to meddle in it and become involved (…) It is the wilful insertion of itself into these disputes by a self serving and self interested outsider (the US), which is the cause of the tension that exists now.
Yes, the locals do not need Uncle Sams immense wisdom to take care of their problems.
@David K: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HgXeYUvWSA
Please tell me that you understand Russian! Please! Because the text of the song is even funnier than the video, it is absolutely hilarious. And its not really a humiliation of Sweden, but it makes fun of the very concept that Russia would want to invade Sweden. The thing is, and that is hard to convey to those who don’t know Russia well, but the very idea of a Russian attack on Europe is so ludicrous in the mind of 99.99999999% of Russians as to be hilarious. I literally have never met a single Russian, or even heard of one, who would consider a Russian attack on Europe, not even in the most extreme circumstances short of actually repelling an attack from the West, I suppose, but even that is seen by a majority of Russians as extremely unlikely (though that notion is not completely dismissed by all, especially as long as the US/NATO persist in their overtly hostile policies). So the video goes “look how bad we are, HAHAHAHA! – look how scary we are HAHAHAHAH! – we are about to invade Sweden, HAHAHAHAHA! to protect if from NATO – HAHAHAHAHAHA!!”. Not literally of course, but that is the idea: “is not amazing that a Swedish defense minister seriously mentioned that Russia could invade Sweden in one week?! They really think that we are scary bad boys, don’t they?”
Anyway, thanks a lot for the video, it gave me a great laugh and I will pass it on to my friends :-)
Cheers!
The Saker
@David K: the video you shared with me is the Russian equivalent of this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRIsC764Nn4 :-)
Hope you enjoy it!
The Saker
@the Saker
Now my third point has confirmed too.
http://news.ifeng.com/mainland/special/fangkongshibiequ/content-5/detail_2013_11/28/31643136_0.shtml
“In a press briefing today (28th November Beijing Time), when asked about comments regarding “Japan and the United States may request China to dismantle its ADIZ together with the International Community”, China’s MoD spokesman said “Japan had set up her ADIZ as early as 1969, she has absolutely no right whatsoever requesting China to dismantle her own ADIZ. If we talk about dismantling (of ADIZ), we would like to ask Japan to dismantle hers first, and we will consider (dismantle our own) 44 years later”
Childish sounding it may be, but it does shift the focus to other ADIZ around the world. And add to the point that China’s ADIZ is no more aggressive, new or changing the status quo compared to other long established ADIZs in the region.
Dear Saker,
A fellow Chinese American anti-war activist sent me your “The tip of the immense iceberg of US diplomatic stupidity now spotted off the Chinese Pacific coast” article.
It was so dead on I had to find out who the hell this Saker chap was.
Lo and behold, he turns out to be a fellow Ron Paul supporter (?) and 9/11 Truther! How do you like them apples?
I haven’t written much on Sino-US relations for some time, but I’ve written a number of articles for Lew Rockwell and Antiwar.com.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/author/bevin-chu/
Also, here is an article I wrote following the Hainan Island EP-3 Incident, FYI.
http://thechinadesk.blogspot.tw/2001/05/real-china-threat-is-china-threat.html
Keep up the good work!
@Alexander Mercouris
> this is a quarrel between Japan and China and the US is foolish to meddle in it
We shouldn’t forget that the overall geopolitical strategy of the US has been and still is to “divide and conquer”. Both Eurasia and Asia. If those regions got their shit together, the US would be in deep trouble economically.
@Erebus:
> Both parties [China and Japan] are standing on some misplaced concept of “honour”
Well, well, the good old “Asians and their stupid concept of honor/loss of face” stereotype. The difference between, say, China and the US, when it comes to this, is not that only the former occasionally loses their face, but that it won’t immediately get a fit of raving madness and cry for revenge when it happens. And that is precicesly the reason why a term like “loss of face” had to be found, to explain that while seemingly “nothing happened”, something invisible, but yet potentially significant did in fact happen.
The US would just “teach them a lesson”, read: carry out some kind of “limited” attack, and you would read about the consequences in less than 48 hours. Then they call it “we cannot lose credibility” etc. It means almost the same thing, except as I mentioned the consequences are different. Obvious in one case, under the surface in the other. See the arbitrary, self-imposed, international law violating (but who cares) “red line” by Obama on Syria’s use of chemical weapons that you also mention. Only this time the Syrians were lucky and there was no action, but not for lack of wanting to do it on Obama/Kerry’s side.
In fact, this very incident is a (luckily) unbloody example of the US fearing the loss of face/credibility if they didn’t “do something” to “learn ’em”. Unempathetic, arrogant. But sure to get applause from the xenophobic audience.
> The Chinese ADIZ got erased today
Maybe. The loss of face however did not get erased and will probably be remembered. A salient point Saker makes.
Honk
@Saker
> It is my deeply held belief that possessing nuclear weapons should put an EXTRA burden of respectability, restraint and predictability upon you which is exactly what the USA has a consistent record of NOT showing.
It had been done on purpose in the past and got a name (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory), but in this case I just believe in the US trying to further it’s “divide and conquer” strategy in East Asia.
@Mindfriedo
> http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/How-an-Iran-US-Deal-Would-Change-the-Strategic-Landscape.html
Lots of interesting bits of info in there that I’ve heard for the first time, and the author makes no references.
Example:
> The fact that Iran already has a dozen or more imported nuclear weapons is taken for granted within the region, even if US official policy is to avoid discussion of the issue.
Honk
Talking about “loss of face”. The US tantrums over the ADIZ seem to be a compensation for the “loss of face” over the “red line” in Syria. It is probably for domestic consumption. “Hey, look we are still the tough guy in town. Nobody messes with US…etc”.
The tone of American media is illuminating. The same stupid phrases, “Teenage Testosterone”, “China came to believe its own narrative that America is down and China is on the rise”, “teenagers don’t realize the consequences of their actions often cause troubles”. Sounds like the usual China bashing.
It seems rather that the establishment of ADIZ is a response to the Joint Statement of the US-Japan-Australia Trilateral Strategic Dialogue of October in Bali, viewed immediately as unnecessarily provocative, as well as the cocky posturing of the new Australian PM Tony Abbott: “Japan is Australia’s best friend in Asia”.
One more little hint. “There are growing signs that the Phillipine government is seeking to revive strained relations with Beijing”, by speeding the resolution of their territorial dispute. Indonesia also began to float towards China.
Cheers,
WizOz
who’s the rightful owner of diaoyu ? [1]
who started this shit ? [2]
is japan an *ally* or ….vassal ? [3]
[1]
http://www.skycitygallery.com/japan/diaohist.html
[2]
* in the past, the Japanese authorities never captured or indicted a Chinese fishing boat, even if they chased them. The crucial point of this arrest and indictment drama is not the reaction of China or the conduct of the fishing boat. Rather, it is the active political will of the Japanese
government to arrest and indict when it knows perfectly well that this will anger China. The important question is why the Japanese government now acts to anger China.
……………….
Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the US are planning to conduct a US-Japan Joint Military Exercise in December around the Senkaku and Yaeyama Islands, which are located off the coast of the Eastern shore of Taiwan, on the premise that China might invade Taiwan from the East. They will take the Chinese navy as the hypothetical enemy in exercises intended to practice preventing a Chinese
invasion with a joint US-Japan force. A similar US-Japan military exercise already occurred in August in Okinawa and Kyushu. When you think about this kind of activity and the arrest and indictment of the Chinese fisherman, it appears that the US was leading Japan into hostility toward China.*
http://www.japanfocus.org/-Tanaka-Sakai/3418
[3]
with *ally* like this….
http://www.uli-schmetzer.com/vicenza.html
*The soldiers get drunk and crash their cars. There are four accidents a day; two rapes a month. Almost every person on Okinawa has a family member who has been assaulted. Then the soldiers go off to kill poor people in Iraq and Afghanistan. It makes my blood boil *
http://www.japanfocus.org/site/view/1768
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/U.S.+pressured+Japan+on+territorial+waters+to+allow+passage+of+nukes.-a0209474823
http://www.japanfocus.org/-Yoshida-Kensei/2857
who’s the rightful owner of diaoyu ? [1]
who started this shxxt ? [2]
is japan an *ally* or ….vassal ? [3]
[1]
http://www.skycitygallery.com/japan/diaohist.html
[2]
* in the past, the Japanese authorities never captured or indicted a Chinese fishing boat, even if they chased them. The crucial point of this arrest and indictment drama is not the reaction of China or the conduct of the fishing boat. Rather, it is the active political will of the Japanese
government to arrest and indict when it knows perfectly well that this will anger China. The important question is why the Japanese government now acts to anger China.
……………….
Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the US are planning to conduct a US-Japan Joint Military Exercise in December around the Senkaku and Yaeyama Islands, which are located off the coast of the Eastern shore of Taiwan, on the premise that China might invade Taiwan from the East. They will take the Chinese navy as the hypothetical enemy in exercises intended to practice preventing a Chinese
invasion with a joint US-Japan force. A similar US-Japan military exercise already occurred in August in Okinawa and Kyushu. When you think about this kind of activity and the arrest and indictment of the Chinese fisherman, it appears that the US was leading Japan into hostility toward China.*
http://www.japanfocus.org/-Tanaka-Sakai/3418
[3]
with *ally* like this….
http://www.uli-schmetzer.com/vicenza.html
*The soldiers get drunk and crash their cars. There are four accidents a day; two rapes a month. Almost every person on Okinawa has a family member who has been assaulted. Then the soldiers go off to kill poor people in Iraq and Afghanistan. It makes my blood boil *
http://www.japanfocus.org/site/view/1768
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/U.S.+pressured+Japan+on+territorial+waters+to+allow+passage+of+nukes.-a0209474823
http://www.japanfocus.org/-Yoshida-Kensei/2857
sorry double post
i thought the first one didnt get thru !
Old Yankee
*bah, what a cranky rant-
Saker we expect more of you than banging on the lectern with your shoe!
China’s resource grab from every country of SE asia is the teenage motive.
I understand that your innate slavic racism keeps you from being able to grant Obama any diplomatic chops for his 4 dimensional chess skills (see iran/ wahhabi switcheroo). But I do like to read things from your white russian angle, just as I like to read the reaganite/likudnik Spengler: the bracing vinegar tang that points to a once noble vintage gone wrong… *
what a moronic rant !
*innate slavic racism*, *white russian angle*
wtf, who’s the racist here kid ?
ad hominen is the last resort of a scroundel!
get it into ur thick skull the world is groaning under anglo tyranny right now, not *slavic racism* !
btw, obama the conartiste n *diplomacy* is an oxymoron.
u should stick with washington times !
@honk and saker
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2514969/Britain-mediating-secret-talks-Hezbollah-US.html
Another interesting read!
@saker
Don’t agree with the mafia analogy, but was reading about some of the atrocities committed in Vietnam. Made me feel funny in my stomach. In no mood to defend the USA.
Mindfriedo
Sorry, off topic, but another bad one
http://lubpak.com/archives/132675
Regards
Mindfriedo
@Mindfriedo:Sorry, off topic, but another bad one
First, please never worry about being off-topic. I always wanted this blog to be a place for everybody to exchange information. This is why I always repeat “there is not such thing as off topic on my blog”. The *only* thing which I ever censor/ban is pure commercial spam (which I get regularly). But if a post is about an idea, a topic, an event – then they are always welcome and on topic.
Second, thanks for the VERY interesting link! I regularly write about what I call the “war on Shia Islam” waged by the US-Israel-KSA coalition and your database is a good illustration of another fact: the Wahabis and their allies hate Shia Islam much more than they hate any other group. In fact, the entire Grand Strategy of the USA in the Middle-East centers around this simply objective: crush Shia Islam everywhere, in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Bahrein, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen and elsewhere. And that strategy, evil as it is, makes sense, as the Shia are *by far* the most effective resistance force against the Anglo-Zionist Empire, at least in the Middle East.
So thanks a lot for all your posts, especially this one, and kind regards,
The Saker
Why the hell do you use the word ‘mocking’ for what the U.S. did? Get over it; power politics is a reality. I’ve been to and lived all over China and Southeast Asia. The way the Chinese ‘mock’ the citizens of Southeast Asia and anyone else they consider beneath them is atrocious. I see it everywhere I go in the world and where there are Chinese people with their newly found arrogance. Unless the Chinese people understand and come to accept the truth about what has been done to their own people by the Chinese themselves – and are still doing – they will always try to find a scapegoat for anything that is not pleasant in their “middle kingdom” of arrogance and isolation. POWER POLITICS IS A REALITY!!! What did you expect the U.S. to do?? You play you win, you play you lose, what you risk is what you value. You play! I wish China would understand what is at stake here. Too many actors would rather blow it up than give it up – the world that is.
@Anonyms: What did you expect the U.S. to do??
I expect the US to do whatever it considers in its best interests SHORT of using the military to delivers is message. Why? The Chinese ADIZ is neither an air exclusion zone nor a no-fly zone, have you ever considered what would have happened if the Chinese had ALSO had a push of macho testosterone and actually had shot down the B-52s? Then what? Would you then expect the US to only use diplomacy? Or would the US then strike at the airbase the Chinese had taken off from? Have you ever considered what a US-China military clash might look like and what it might turn into? I highly doubt that.
Now, as a former military analyst, let me tell you this: there are many very very good theories out there about conflict escalation. I have yet to see ONE about how to de-escalate. I have participated in many exercises, including in the US with US colleagues, in which we tried to model de-escalation and every single time we had to concede that would could not come up with a workable plan. Now you want to think about that very *VERY* carefully before tossing around journalistic vagueries like “power politics”! When civilians talk of “power politics” like its some kind of poker game, military analysts think of casualties and destruction. Sure, for all its history the USA never had real destruction inflicted upon itself (Pearl Habour was a tiny military events inflicted by an enemy which it the US in a colony where the US had no business being in anyway and 9-11 was an inside job). But if the USA continues to act like a schoolyard bully this might well change one day. Arrogance and imperial hubris is all very well, but it does not protect from incoming ICBMs.
The Saker
You professed China is not your area of expertise, so perhaps this Chinese can provide some answers to your detractors.
First of all, you are RIGHT that China is
1)Playing Go
2)Eying the long game
3)Achieving its goals
Every internet cowboy is yahooing about China’s massive loss of face and dancing a jig about humiliating a big clumsy bully.
However, China’s objective is *not* to gain face here, it is to ADVERTISE their establishment of the ADIZ. As you know, it is about 44 years too late but China held back because of the Tanaka-Mao entente.
However, since Japan unilaterally breached the agreement and status quo (please don’t fall for the Ishihara-Noda kabuki..),China has to take a few steps to establish challenges to Tokyo in order to solidify its claims over these lost islands.
So thanks to predictable cowboy behavior and internet sinophobic goons, the whole world knows about China’s ADIZ. China gets RECOGNITION, whether one agrees or disagrees with her actions. In future, she can effectively survey and monitor this ADIZ, the whole world’s on notice now.
See, the purpose of the ADIZ isn’t about “duking it out” or starting a shooting war, it is part of establishing admin. control. The Americans knew it too, but they are FORCED to act, or they will lose face.
This is China flipping the GO stones one by one. When the time is right, the whole board will flip China’s way, which incidentally, frees up Russia’s Eastern flank, so Moscow, do what you have to do in Europe, Central Asia and Iran.
Much respect to the Russians.
“The USA never had real destruction inflicted upon itself”
Don’t forget Lebanon :-)
They ran after that one
Mindfriedo
@Saker
Unfortunately my rusty little bit of Russian I learned in school is not enough for me to understand the lyrics of the video. But there is a version with Swedish subtitles out there which is still pretty hillarious. The Russian caricature of Swedish men is a punch below the beltline, totally makes fun of the gender equalized post-modern Swedish man.
Regarding the ADIZ: only now did I go through the trouble of finding out if there are any treaties regulating them, and apparently there are not. So apparently all the rules and behavior around them are informal, free for anyone to break or follow. The Wikipedia article also mentions that it is unusual to establish an ADIZ that is overlapping with an already existing one, and that the Chinese one seems to be the first one to do that. It also seems to be unusual to establish ADIZ’s over disputed territory, and the Chinese and Japanese ones seem to be the only ones.
At the end of the day, if you don’t have sovereignty over the airspace where you set up your ADIZ, whether others will follow the procedures you require is up to their common courtesy. Right?
When we talk about South America I certainly agree that the countries there don’t need the global robocop to keep them away from each other’s throats. But is east asia really comparable? Considering the skirmishes China was involved in with the Soviet Union, Vietnam, India (any more?). Shall the Chinese and Japanese be trusted that they will solve it peacefully this time around? (I am playing devil’s advocate in case you didn’t notice)
Cheers
D.
@USA has never real destruction…
Neither did Australia. That’s why they view war as videogames, as shooting from the hip.
Peoples who experienced real war and destruction like Russia, China, even Europe do not want war. Those who want it are those who believe in their own “exceptionalism”, in their “manifest destiny” to lecture peoples how to behave (and be paid dearly for that by the pupils), in their “chosenness”. But all those people are much likely to not see the hurdles and behave like a bull in a china shop (pun not intended).
WizOz
Sorry, but I know with absolute certainty that the Chinese respect power, and power only. China has been a vital and influential part of my life since 1980. I have worked throughout China, have many wonderful Chinese acquaintances, relationships, and colleagues. I have a great deal of respect and admiration for the Chinese people, Chinese culture, and Chinese history. I have learned much from China, but the one thing I always carry with me, fearfully is this realization of power and it is ALL the Chinese respect. I prefer American “craziness” over that of the Chinese. Reality is the recognition of necessity. I therefore expect the U.S. to do whatever is necessary to show it will protect its interests in Asia. Being complacent to the Chinese is asking for trouble. The B-52s was a signal. Do not underestimate the U.S. If China does so, it does so at its own peril. The U.S. has choices. So does the Chinese government.
@Chinese respect power only…
What is hard to see is how assertion of Chinese rights can threaten the interests of US in Asia. What are these interests after all?
Thailand: Nothing is what it seems!
My impression was that the opposition were the bad guys, and Taksin was the man of the people.
The following article seems to indicate Taksin was selling off the resources of the country in Jeltsin style, while throwing a few bones to the poor.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/thailand-protesters-want-oil-back-for-thai-people/5359814
I can still remember his out-of-the-box, or perhaps very traditional, ‘solution’ for the religious conflict in the south provinces: Everyone folded an origami bird, these (millions) were collected and dropped in the muslim south by airplane.
This news story does show how radical the media will twist the news when they think they can get away with it…
As usual, silly, hot headed and arrogant westerners fell straight into China’s trap.
By invalidating China’s ADIZ, it effectively also invalidate Japan’s ADIZ.
China can now move their jets/ships into Japan’s ADIZ frequently with total disregard. Because “they disregarded ours first”.
The US can have fun while it lasts. After the new silk road is built (a highspeed rail system that links pretty much every major power in Euroasia), the US will be left alone sinking in their debt hole, while everyone else in Euroasia trade with each other, BY LAND.
As usual, silly, hot headed and arrogant westerners fell straight into China’s trap.
By invalidating China’s ADIZ, it effectively also invalidate Japan’s ADIZ.
China can now move their jets/ships into Japan’s ADIZ frequently with total disregard. Because “they disregarded ours first”.
The US can have fun while it lasts. After the new silk road is built (a highspeed rail system that links pretty much every major power in Euroasia), the US will be left alone sinking in their debt hole, while everyone else in Euroasia trade with each other, BY LAND.
@Silk Road…
This is the true oblique stroke. All the “Asia pivot” will turn in vain.
WizOz
As usual, any Chinese response talks about everything but the heart of the matter – power! The subject is always shifted to suit their needs, and their needs only. The Chinese talk only about what has been done to them, never about what they have done to each other and others. China is about denial!
Everyone should go back to sleep; this, and all else is simply business. The war never stops. It goes on twenty four hours a day. I respect the Chinese farmer & only the Chinese farmer.
Keep dreaming!