By Pepe Escobar for the Asia Times
The annual BRICS summit in Xiamen – where President Xi Jinping was once mayor – could not intervene in a more incandescent geopolitical context.
Once again, it’s essential to keep in mind that the current core of BRICS is “RC”; the Russia-China strategic partnership. So in the Korean peninsula chessboard, RC context – with both nations sharing borders with the DPRK – is primordial.
Beijing has imposed a definitive veto on war – of which the Pentagon is very much aware.
Pyongyang’s sixth nuclear test, although planned way in advance, happened only three days after two nuclear-capable US B-1B strategic bombers conducted their own “test” alongside four F-35Bs and a few Japanese F-15s.
Everyone familiar with the Korean peninsula chessboard knew there would be a DPRK response to these barely disguised “decapitation” tests.
So it’s back to the only sound proposition on the table: the RC “double freeze”. Freeze on US/Japan/South Korea military drills; freeze on North Korea’s nuclear program; diplomacy takes over.
The White House, instead, has evoked ominous “nuclear capabilities” as a conflict resolution mechanism.
Gold mining in the Amazon, anyone?
On the Doklam plateau front, at least New Delhi and Beijing decided, after two tense months, on “expeditious disengagement” of their border troops. This decision was directly linked to the approaching BRICS summit – where both India and China were set to lose face big time.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had already tried a similar disruption gambit prior to the BRICS Goa summit last year. Then, he was adamant that Pakistan should be declared a “terrorist state”. The RC duly vetoed it.
Modi also ostensively boycotted the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit in Hangzhou last May, essentially because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
India and Japan are dreaming of countering BRI with a semblance of connectivity project; the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC). To believe that the AAGC – with a fraction of the reach, breath, scope and funds available to BRI – may steal its thunder, is to enter prime wishful-thinking territory.
Still, Modi emitted some positive signs in Xiamen; “We are in mission-mode to eradicate poverty; to ensure health, sanitation, skills, food security, gender equality, energy, education.” Without this mammoth effort, India’s lofty geopolitical dreams are D.O.A.
Brazil, for its part, is immersed in a larger-than-life socio-political tragedy, “led” by a Dracula-esque, corrupt non-entity; Temer The Usurper. Brazil’s President, Michel Temer, hit Xiamen eager to peddle “his” 57 major, ongoing privatizations to Chinese investors – complete with corporate gold mining in an Amazon nature reserve the size of Denmark. Add to it massive social spending austerity and hardcore anti-labor legislation, and one’s got the picture of Brazil currently being run by Wall Street. The name of the game is to profit from the loot, fast.
The BRICS’ New Development Bank (NDB) – a counterpart to the World Bank – is predictably derided all across the Beltway. Xiamen showed how the NDB is only starting to finance BRICS projects. It’s misguided to compare it with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). They will be investing in different types of projects – with the AIIB more focused on BRI. Their aim is complementary.
‘BRICS Plus’ or bust
On the global stage, the BRICS are already a major nuisance to the unipolar order. Xi politely put it in Xiamen as “we five countries [should] play a more active part in global governance”.
And right on cue Xiamen introduced “dialogues” with Mexico, Egypt, Thailand, Guinea and Tajikistan; that’s part of the road map for “BRICS Plus” – Beijing’s conceptualization, proposed last March by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, for expanding partnership/cooperation.
A further instance of “BRICS Plus” can be detected in the possible launch, before the end of 2017, of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – in the wake of the death of TPP.
Contrary to a torrent of Western spin, RCEP is not “led” by China. Japan is part of it – and so is India and Australia alongside the 10 ASEAN members. The burning question is what kind of games New Delhi may be playing to stall RCEP in parallel to boycotting BRI.
Patrick Bond in Johannesburg has developed an important critique, arguing that “centrifugal economic forces” are breaking up the BRICS, thanks to over-production, excessive debt and de-globalization. He interprets the process as “the failure of Xi’s desired centripetal capitalism.”
It doesn’t have to be this way. Never underestimate the power of Chinese centripetal capitalism – especially when BRI hits a higher gear.
Meet the oil/yuan/gold triad
It’s when President Putin starts talking that the BRICS reveal their true bombshell. Geopolitically and geo-economically, Putin’s emphasis is on a “fair multipolar world”, and “against protectionism and new barriers in global trade.” The message is straight to the point.
The Syria game-changer – where Beijing silently but firmly supported Moscow – had to be evoked; “It was largely thanks to the efforts of Russia and other concerned countries that conditions have been created to improve the situation in Syria.”
On the Korean peninsula, it’s clear how RC think in unison; “The situation is balancing on the brink of a large-scale conflict.”
Putin’s judgment is as scathing as the – RC-proposed – possible solution is sound; “Putting pressure on Pyongyang to stop its nuclear missile program is misguided and futile. The region’s problems should only be settled through a direct dialogue of all the parties concerned without any preconditions.”
Putin’s – and Xi’s – concept of multilateral order is clearly visible in the wide-ranging Xiamen Declaration, which proposes an “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” peace and national reconciliation process, “including the Moscow Format of consultations” and the “Heart of Asia-Istanbul process”.
That’s code for an all-Asian (and not Western) Afghan solution brokered by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), led by RC, and of which Afghanistan is an observer and future full member.
And then, Putin delivers the clincher; “Russia shares the BRICS countries’ concerns over the unfairness of the global financial and economic architecture, which does not give due regard to the growing weight of the emerging economies. We are ready to work together with our partners to promote international financial regulation reforms and to overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies.”
“To overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies” is the politest way of stating what the BRICS have been discussing for years now; how to bypass the US dollar, as well as the petrodollar.
Beijing is ready to step up the game. Soon China will launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold.
This means that Russia – as well as Iran, the other key node of Eurasia integration – may bypass US sanctions by trading energy in their own currencies, or in yuan. Inbuilt in the move is a true Chinese win-win; the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on both the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges.
The new triad of oil, yuan and gold is actually a win-win-win. No problem at all if energy providers prefer to be paid in physical gold instead of yuan. The key message is the US dollar being bypassed.
RC – via the Russian Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China – have been developing ruble-yuan swaps for quite a while now.
Once that moves beyond the BRICS to aspiring “BRICS Plus” members and then all across the Global South, Washington’s reaction is bound to be nuclear (hopefully, not literally).
Washington’s strategic doctrine rules RC should not be allowed by any means to be preponderant along the Eurasian landmass. Yet what the BRICS have in store geo-economically does not concern only Eurasia – but the whole Global South.
Sections of the War Party in Washington bent on instrumentalizing India against China – or against RC – may be in for a rude awakening. As much as the BRICS may be currently facing varied waves of economic turmoil, the daring long-term road map, way beyond the Xiamen Declaration, is very much in place.
Dmitri Babich on crosstalk, just before the break in mid show is especially interesting in light of the essay posted above.
LZ
https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/402147-russia-us-relations-talks/
I see an Escobar article and I forward it on.
But Pepe I think the path to war is all but fixed into all of our futures. Hope for peace. But understand it is late in the game and the last few off ramps are flashing by right now.
The total eclipse on August 21 2017 signalled the commencement of the Great Tribulation. The next total eclipse crossing the US is in 7 years time – 2024.
What do eclipses have to do with geopolitics??? Magical thinking is pre- scientific, and is only good for stories at the camp fire!
Very true, Rootman.
The moon does strongly affect our tides, but nevertheless (while taking those shifting currents into account) mariners do have Free Will and can still navigate their course, and not just drift and helplessly await what has supposedly been decided for them.
How silly is it to give that navigational capacity up??
Very silly, IMHO.
The enemies of my enemy are my friends. My enemy is america. Go RC.
That may be, but it not always true.
It depends. Sometimes when one sees all his enemies fighting one another he simply watches the freak show, sipping a glass of wine. Sometimes when you see your enemies fight each other the reality is that it not your fight.
And it is good to bear in mind that Betrayal nearly always accompanies Victory…so, if the calculus seems to say that’s where the fight is going, that there will a Victory of one of your enemies over the other, then you have a fine opportunity to discover the nature of the Treason developing within the body of the Victor…and you may find ways to roll the Betrayal into an operation that secures the Betrayal under your control… Strategy that works is nearly always indirect… Liddell Hart is worth a read…by the way.
And I agree that sometimes the best path is the one that works… Ethic is a situation-dependent science.
Pax
LZ
There’s an important difference between “convertible into gold” and “backed by gold”, isn’t there? Could somebody who understands the details (I don’t) elaborate on this a little?
“Back by gold” will bring back the inflexible gold standard, making the yuan too strong for China’s exports and recession. “Convertible to gold” will not put any upward pressure on the yuan. However, if China had no plan on either crushing oil price to sub $5 a barrel or the paper COMEX scam before launching this crude oil futures contract (priced in yuan and convertible into gold), they will lose their gold reserve to the oil exporting nations within a year.
The moment the world associate physical gold rather than paper gold futures, which rarely get consumed/delivered, to oil futures which always get consumed, the true and unmolested prices of Free Physical Gold will manifest the unsustainability of manipulated and twisted prices of Free Paper Gold.
@Tin foil hat. Thanks much for clarifying this. I’ve seen many articles about the possibility of a “gold-backed yuan” over the years, and this latest one by Pepe is similarly loose with the distinction between “convertible into gold” and “backed by gold”. In principle, many assets are “convertible into gold”, right? I can buy gold with fiat and now even some cryptos. Or does “convertible into gold” actually mean some other type of transaction?
Regarding your explanation, there are a couple of points I’m still unclear on. Why would pegging the yuan to gold make it too strong? The rate could be set at anything, right? Or is it that you think the yuan is much higher now than it should be and a gold peg would prevent it from settling to a more “correct” valuation?
Also, you say that by associating phizz with oil futures, “the true and unmolested prices of Free Physical Gold will manifest the unsustainability of manipulated and twisted prices of Free Paper Gold” and this has been my understanding as well.
However, there are many elements in this picture that I don’t understand. For example, as you know, last year China launched a yuan-denominated gold benchmark on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). This, as a way for the Chinese to increase their power in world markets, but also as a part of their de-dollarization strategy.
As I understand it, the current benchmark is set in London via an electronic auction that takes place twice every day. Previously, this was set via a teleconference among banks, but after the LIBOR scandal in 2012, the London fix (funny term, that) was henceforth set using an electronic auction.
Now, what I don’t understand in this is that many people argue — and both you and I agree with this, I think — that the price of gold on the London exchange is artificially low and there is some game being played there (with paper shorts or something) to depress the price. If the SGE develops an alternative gold market — which is what they are doing now — and if they work to make that market reflect the economic reality of gold, the price would go up. Maybe a lot.
At that point, there would be a London price (low) and a Shanghai price (high) for the same commodity, but that’s a problem isn’t it? How could the higher priced market prevail as the “true” one?
Maybe this is a poor analogy, but imagine there are two Toyota dealerships in your town, and the second one is much cheaper. If you knew that both were selling basically the same cars from the same factory, why would you buy from the more expensive dealer?
“Convertible to gold” means convertible to PHYSICAL gold at free market price. “Back by gold” means the central banks need to have at least one ounce of gold in the reserves to back every $1,300 dollar or $7,000 yuan of fiat currencies in circulation.
In the west, COMEX has been getting away with selling paper gold thru the futures market and gold ETF since 99% of westerners have no interest on taking physical delivery. “Convertible to gold” does NOT mean convertible to GLD at free market price which could be easily manipulated.
Imagine there are two Toyota dealerships in your town, and the second one is much cheaper but the cars are made of paper. The second dealership can get away with it as long as it’s customers are speculators rather than drivers. If the first dealership knew that, the owner would be insane to sell his real drivable car for the same price as the paper toy car. Hence China restricts gold from leaving its border and imports as much gold as possible since 2010.
I can’t imagine China would allow oil exporting nations convert yuan to gold at the current oil and gold prices. In order for this yuan, oil & gold thingy to work. The Chinese must crush the COMEX by taking physical delivery to replace or compensate for every ounce of gold converted to oil in China. However, I suspect the U.S. would respond aggressively if that happened.
Hey Tin foil hat, you really improved on my Toyota dealer analogy. It makes much more sense now :D
I kind of figured that yuan “convertible to gold” would not be allowed to leave China (isn’t that what was happening to the US in the 1960s, and a big part of the reason the US unilaterally withdrew from the Bretton Woods system?), but then what does it mean in practice? Oil producing nations can sell to China at a rate denominated in yuan, and they could convert this to physical gold, but then what?
Maybe I need a more concrete example to understand this. Let’s say I have oil company in Africa and I send a tanker full of oil that docks in China. My company sells the oil and I get paid in yuan (the Internet tells me that an Aframax class carries average 750,000 barrels, so the payout is about 239 million yuan for the cargo, I guess). Then, let’s say I want to convert that to physical gold. The Chinese cheerfully oblige me, but is it stuck in a vault in China? What do I do with all of that shiny?
Pepe and others are talking like this is some kind of game-changer, but I’m not seeing it yet. It looks more like a step towards a different game, but which is not in itself sufficient to actually change the game.
Am I missing something here?
“Convertible to gold” will be allowed to leave China. The only reason gold is not allowed to leave now is because gold price is set by the corrupted western banks.
Going back to the dealership analogy, the corrupted banks cartel is the second dealership which set the price of the paper cars which hardly anyone would take delivery (drive off the lot) – on average, one out of thousand would drive a real car (the dealer has only 2 real cars for every 1,000 paper cars) off the first dealership’s lot. The dealership would go broke if 10 of the customers want to drive the 10 out of 1,000 cars which the second dealership has sold.
China is the first dealership which sell only real drivable cars. The only reason these real cars are not allows to leave the lot is because the price is the same as the paper car. If the dealership could sell these real car at a much higher price, THE RIGHT PRICE, they would have no issue allowing these cars leaving the lot.
I should add that ” Convertible to gold” means convertible to physical at the RIGHT PRICE, free of price manipulation (paper gold & car) and border boundary (free to leave the lot).
I agree this is not a game changer unless the first dealership is willing to risk war with the second dealership.
I should add that the first dealership is buying or adding more real cars on the lot since 2010. Whatever cars they’d sold are not allowed to leave the lot.
Let me put it this way, hardly nobody is taking the car off the lot because no one drives – Everybody takes the bus (fiat currency back by debts/fractional reserve). When this debt base currency is switch over to an asset base currency, everybody will need a car to get around.
One must understand the difference between money and currency. Money is asset (1oz of gold, a house or one acre of land) and currency is IOU.
Wrong tin foil hat. The previous gold backed regime tried to fix gold at USD35 and then the US went profligate with money printing to finance her wars. This make the rise in the price of gold inevitable as the purchasing power of the USD and all currencies linked to it diminished.
The excessive demand for the US dollar was first caused by US’s need to finance economically negative wars (Korea, Vietnam etc). Easy money caused the Americans to be lazy, complacent and in indebted.
The Clinton years and the IT revolution gave the US a chance to break away from the easy-money syndrome as the US took the lead in producing both IT consumer goods and IT intellectual property rights. In one quarter just after the Clinton administration and during the early George W Bush Administration, the US economy actually expanded 18% annualised. But the tremendous wealth generated by the US transition to a digital economy was squandered by the many wars since then – Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, etc.
The price of gold in the Yuan-Oil-Gold futures will be fixed by the market. And China being by far the largest gold owner and miner (disregard official statistics on China’s gold hoard which is based on a different algorithm) will prevent the price of gold from being manipulated. And if the price of gold cannot be manipulated, the purchasing power of the Yuan will be stabilised.
And if the purchasing power of the Yuan is stabilised, the demand for more Yuan will legitimately and productively be from increased trade due to stable economic growth. This will legitimately be met by printing more Yuan to reflect the increased in the amount of wealth being traded and stored in the economy. Such increase in Yuan will keep the Yuan’s exchange rate rate down. It not affect the purchasing power of the Yuan as the increased amount of Yuan ‘represents’ a proportionate increase in the amount of wealth traded and stored in the economy.
There is another possible scenario that can lead to an increase in Yuan over and above the amount released by the Central Bank – increase in credit. But increase in credit will be used to produce more wealth if its use in speculation is prevented. Another danger is the shadow banking that can multiply the increase in credit and therefore the increase in Yuan circulating. But both speculation and shadow banking can be controlled – which is being done effectively at the moment.
Therefore, a gold-backed yuan will not result in a shortage of Yuan (and therefore an economically crippling rise in the exchange rate for Yuan). This is because it’s purchasing power is stabilised by control over its printing and increase. Secondly, the price of gold will not be determined by a cartel or a cabal as was the case in the pre-Nixon gold regime. It will be determined by the market i.e. demand and supply. China being the world’s largest trader and producer of consumer goods, there will be a fair demand for Yuan and therefore less of the excess yuan will be traded for gold thereby lessening the demand for gold on the Shanghai Exchange and helping to stabilise its price. A portion will also likely be placed in Yuan-denominated bonds or used in currency swaps with the Yuan as trade increased.
There is yet another scenario that can threaten the Chinese economy through the gold-backed Yuan. This is if the US dollar and Euro depreciate drastically against the Yuan.
China will likely gradually allow the depreciation of the USD against the Yuan to the USD’s true over a period of say 5 years. The Chinese economy had been re-balancing for about 5 years now. It is rebalancing not just by increasing the consumer sector of the economy but also moving the manufacturing sector to automation, innovation and retraining of her industrial workers. China will continue to produce consumer goods but at a far more efficient and value-added basis. The ‘sweat-shop’ jobs (shoes, clothing etc) will be exported to Africa and other countries or retained in the poorer areas of China. The rest of the economy will be driven by the burgeoning consumer sector with its increasing purchasing power as the middle class doubles in size again over the next 5 years and as the Yuan appreciates.
My estimate is that the USD can depreciate to 3 yuan to the dollar over the next 5 years and China’s economy can cope. By that time and in his scenario, the Chinese economy will be more than 3 times the size of the US economy in actual output terms. Also by that time, the main markets for China’s exports and imports will not be the US, but the BRI countries and the EU.
The stability stemming from a gold-backed Yuan with the price of gold priced by the market but kept stable by China’s Yuan policies plus the explosion of the Chinese market will cause a rush of multi-national corporations to relocate into China. No major multi-national can afford not to be based in China when the economy is 3 times larger than the US and growing bigger due to the BRI initiative.
This rush is likely to begin if the Yuan-Gold-Oil futures succeeds convincingly.
You have stated the operative concept quite well:
“It [will] not affect the purchasing power of the Yuan as the increased amount of Yuan ‘represents’ a proportionate increase in the amount of wealth traded and stored in the economy.”
And this may be the concept that eludes the parties predicting the imminent economic demise of the Chinese economy.
@ Acacia
Why has this yen-gold link up been made? Oil is sold on futures contracts. This means purchaser and buyer agree a sale now for delivery in 12 or 18 months. The sale is agreed at a given price, but is only paid for when delivery is made. In 12 months, the US can and does regularly smash currencies to cause huge devaluations. It is a major tool in maintaining world trade transacted in dollars (about 60% of world trade). In oil futures, agreeing a price in Yen to deliver in 12 months and watching the US assault the Yen, reducing its value means that the oil producer might get paid less than the cost of production when time comes to deliver.
This yen/gold hook up is aimed to give oil producers that want to trade directly with the worlds largest energy consumer and be paid in Yen real confidence that if they sell now for future delivery, the value of the Yen at time of agreement may be wildly different from when it is delivered, but they have the option of taking the more stable option of gold instead.
This is the biggest geopolitical move of our lives. It does not end the dollar, but it re-affirms China’s war with the dollar and hastens the end of the dollar and US hegemony.
An example of the US’s sabbotage of nations currency for dollar political reasons, think of the devaluations on the Ruble recently, and more effective, on 16th Sept 1992 George Sorros’ attacked the Bank of England, betting against the pound. He managed to shift world confidence so fast that the pound devalued by 30% in two days. Our interest rates rose by 16.5% one day and a similar amount the next in order to stop money fleeing the country. He made a fortune, but his objective was to specifically end the British attempt to align away from the dollar and join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, such that sterling would be hooked to the Euro, not the Dollar. The direct effect is that we (Brits) were forced to withdraw from our attempt to join the ERM. Libya, Somalia, Iran, Iraq, Ukraine, Syria, BNP Paribas, Deutscha Bank, Total Energy, Rosneft etc have all been similarly hit, in different ways.
A future contract is a forward contract, an agreement to buy or sell something at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future.
A forward contract is a contract between two parties to buy or to sell an asset at a specified future time at a price agreed upon today, making it a type of derivative instrument.
A derivative is a contract that derives its value from the performance of an underlying entity. This underlying entity can be an asset, oil, etc.
Futures, forwards and derivative contracts are basically bets based on speculation…..In Islam, they are considered absolutely illegal, prohibited and a type of Riba = Usury.
Selling what you don’t have possession of:
Futures is generally a debt-inducing contract; the buyer sells you something they don’t have (but intend to buy at a cheap price). Sometimes, the commodity being sold doesn’t exist, and it may exist later on (at the date of the contract). In either case, the buyer is selling something that they don’t own! And that’s not permissible in Islam!
Debt for debt: Even if you own the commodity in the exchange that you’re selling (or buying) in a futures contract, it becomes a debt for a debt. You owe some money, and the seller owes some commodity. Again, not permissible.
If you actually believe that for example Oil Price is based on supply and demand, then you are absolutely mistaken….Oil prices are determined by the huge oil derivatives market, where the price of oil goes up and down based on betting and speculation:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raymond-j-learsy/blatant-distortion-and-ma_b_3815863.html
http://www.globalresearch.ca/perhaps-60-of-today-s-oil-price-is-pure-speculation/8878
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-Oil-Prices-Are-Held-Hostage-By-Derivatives.html
The derivatives market is $1.2 quadrillion, where basically people are betting on everything:
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052715/how-big-derivatives-market.asp
Good explanation of terms. Thank you.
Islam and the Muslim resource owners is two very different things.
Rules of religion have not gotten in the way of enrichment since 1973 when the Arabs finally got control of their petroleum.
The Rules are rationalized in many ways.
Fierce competition for markets decides the matter.
ad hominem statements removed … mod
Differences of opinion, wants and needs and risk preferences form markets. And markets form the basis of trading. Markets can be regulated by a government agency/private agency, which is commonly known as an exchange. For example, NYSE. This is where futures are traded (trading a listed type, and quanties) on the exchange. This is not a derivative!
Or, a type and quantity may be traded among private parties. This is where forward contacts are traded. Again, this is not a derivative!
Derivatives derive their value from some underlying entity, such as equity derivatives get their value from stocks (equities). There is absolutely nothing usurious (please look up and comprehend what usury is! You are completely misusing the term.) about them. Alot of stupidity around non specialists, like you.
There are usually two parties to forwards, futures, and derivatives. There are speculators and hedgers. Hedgers use these to reduce risk associated with a position. For example, airlines have derivative positions in AvGas, to hedge fuel price volatility. Speculators don’t have an underlying position to hedge. There is nothing wrong with speculation – they actually provide information about the market and efficiently.
1.
“Futures Trading
Futures contracts are also called exchange-traded derivatives because of the location where they are traded. This is the main difference between them and other derivatives. For example, gold or platinum futures are traded on futures exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or the London Metal Exchange. The trades are conducted electronically, via telephone or by open outcry. The exchange’s clearinghouse collects payments every business day and settles trading accounts. In this way, the exchange minimizes the credit and counterparty risk and guarantees the financial integrity of the transaction. In effect, the exchange is the counterparty to all trades”.
2. Please enlighten the readers what your definition is of Usury.
3. If you are not a Muslim, then I do not expect you to even comprehend what is Riba…..if you are a Muslim, then again you are always welcomed to explain to the readers what you consider to be the definition of Riba…….
“There is nothing wrong with speculation – they actually provide information about the market and efficiently.”
True only if the speculators can print money to infinity and speculate on the market with the funny money. What informations are the Japanese Central Bank and Swiss National Bank providing about the market?
I was merely pointing out how wrong the financial notions, as posted by HR, were. I was trying point out that in forward, futures and derivatives contracts, the parties are generally speculators and hedgers.
Now, you’re right about “markets” today. Arguably, they don’t exist. They are saturated and distorted by high frequency algorithms (which are illegal by the letter of the law – it’s just that we have captive regulators). Many markets are distorted by QE and it’s ilk; just look at stock markets (PE ratios) and housing (US). Crazy!
And it’s not just central banks that are distorting markets – it’s really the notion of fractional reserve system, and that’s not just in currency. You see fractional reserve in actions with other asset classes too (e.g. gold). That’s exactly what Rehypothecation is! Again, captive regulators make this kind of stuff happen.
Normally speculators add to price discovery and efficiently. Perhaps they look at an asset and think “hmm, looking at the fundamentals, that price is too high. I’m going to short it.” This action alone leads to price discovery and efficiently (e.g. narrowing bid-ask spreads). This one of the important aspects of a healthy market.
Yes. That’s correct. You need both hedgers and speculators in equal measure. It is true we hedge because we do not want to deal with fuel price volatility. How can I set prices and tell my customers if my avgas costs swing up and down? I can’t. Yet my customers want to know a price, often months in advance of flying. Without the speculators relieving me of the risks of price volatility I can’t plan ahead, nor can my customers and in the end no-one flies. The speculators are heroic for taking on their task. If they can make some money out of it, well, good luck to them. That they are there allows me to make money out of flying. I know that many of them lose and lose big. Sometimes they win. But in the end, it isn’t my problem to deal with price volatility. They provide a smoothing function. Hooray for that.
Yes, true.
These instruments, when used correctly, are very beneficial in terms of reducing risk and making markets more efficient.
Now, the “markets” we are in currently are a whole different story. When the Western financial system crashes again, a la 2007-2009, and it will – it’s a mathematical certainty, this new crash will be orders of magnitude greater that 2007-2009.
There are no markets any longer; there are only central banks and the media. Every market move is an intervention.
If there is a new crash, it will be engineered, as per the 2008 coup de’etat. In that scam the banks effectively encircled western governments and took control. ‘Too big to fail’ was hostage talk – they literally had western governments in fear of the entire collapse of western civilization, starting with the revaluation to zero of everyone’s money. The bailouts were ransom money to guarantee the continuation of orderly government. The private bank known as the Fed now owns 60% of the real estate in the US (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae mortgage book).
But you know this. They knew this back at the starting of the Fed 100 years ago.
“If you actually believe that for example Oil Price is based on supply and demand, then you are absolutely mistaken…”
I concur with that assessment up to a point. As long as there are rooms to store the excess supply, the price can be manipulated based on betting and speculation – higher price with excess supply. However, when the manipulators cannot find additional storage spaces for the excess supply of oils, then oil prices will be determined by supply and demand.
The reverse is true for gold – lower price with dwindling supply until there isn’t any gold in storage.
I disagree with the definition of a futures contract. A futures contract means that you sell something now at a certain price but delivery is set a at a future date. The goods are actually there. E.g. Oil and gas. The Saudis and all other producers possess the commodity. They can settle the contract by actually delivering on it or cancel out the contract by buying back an equal amount. This does not run foul of Islamic rules since the sellers already possess the commodity.
Russia and China are already trading in rubles and yuans, and both are accumulating gold. According to one source, both have more than 25,000 tonnes of gold each. It’s only a matter of time before they introduce gold backed currencies, which no doubt will be sending Wall Street into panic mode, as that would mean the end of the dollar as a reserve currency. This would also explain the tensions being directed against Russia and China. As analysts have been pointing out for years, the balance of power is moving towards Euro-Asia, and there is nothing Wall Street can do about it, short of a nuclear war. In Vladivostok, Russia and South Korea have agreed on a trilateral economic agreement that would also include North Korea, the aim being to build up both the Korean peninsula and Russia’s Far East. Putin is making one brilliant move after another. He even proposed to Japan the building of a bridge between Russia and Japan, which no doubt would bring Japan into the Euro-Asian Economic Zone, officially known as the Euroasian Economic Union. And what is the US doing ? Making threats and throwing sanctions all around.
Good point brother
https://www.corbettreport.com/chinas-new-world-order-gold-backed-oil-benchmark-on-the-way/
The RC is making their move quicker than I thought . This will more than likely drive the US Dollar down and Gold and Silver will rise in price . More trouble will be brewing.
One of the comments on this article notes: “The commodity contracts are not pegged to gold, it is a floating exchange redeemable in gold, designed to build cofidence in the yuan and Chinese Market.”
See my question about this, above.
They won’t peg ‘it’ to Gold yet because the price of Gold is still too low .The initial goal is to drop the price of the US dollar so that emerging markets won’t be captive to the US dollar . When enough Countries wean themselves from the US Fiat currency then perhaps the Juan will be pegged to Gold . At the moment its more of a floating accommodation which gives people more options . But yes ! eventually it will probably be pegged to Gold . The question at the moment is what will be the Price especially if the US dollar loses ‘to much value’.
True about the price of gold being too low.
The Lords of Finance and Globalist Rule have been manipulating for over a decade.
It should be at 5000 dollars at minimum, and if you look at the risks of the bubbles in real estate, credit and derivatives, it should be at 20,000 dollars.
However, China, Russia and India will go with what is in play.
It will shift power from the West to the East at the present pricing.
They don’t have to wait for the true value to surface.
The billions of Asian peoples value gold above anything. So the demand is there.
Up, up and away, sooner or later.
Thee price of gold will not be pegged. Neither will the Yuan be pegged to gold at a certain price. The price of gold will be determined by the market i.e. by demand and supply. Excess Yuan from selling oil and gas in Yuan can be exchanged for gold at the Shanghai and Hong Kong Exchanges, but at the prevailing market price of gold. During the pre-Nixon gold regime, gold price was pegged at 35 USD per ounce. This became untenable when the US went on a money-printing spree to finance her many wars.
@ Stefanhere
Gold and silver will not rise until the US financial system dies. Not before.
There are 100+ paper claims on every oz of physical gold on the Comex trading platform in the US. This means that every oz of physical gold that a bullion bank owns, they are selling it in its entirety (not a share) to 100 different entities. This is the ETF (exchange traded fund) product range. It means price controllers can dump 2million oz regularly into the market without letting go of a single actual oz of gold. Price ain’t rising so long as this legal system remains in place.
History: The ETF was introduced in response to the first bank bailouts in 1997. Two bullion banks made a huge bet on a fall in the price of gold, as it had risen a little beyond the normal controlled erading range of $35. The price did not fall and they lost everything. It meant also that the London Bullion market had lost control of the price of gold, and the true worthlessness of the western currencies was about to to be exposed. Gordon Brown, then chancellor of the exchequer in the UK, sold our entire gold reserve of 270 tonnes into the open market in order to crush the price so that 1) make the bet work for the banks and thereby bail them out and 2) to show the world that anything would be done to cover the scam of worthless fiat currencies. A better mechanism was introduced between him and Greenspan of the Fed to produce a new product, a paper gold, freely trade-able as gold and directly exchangeable with it. Banks were allowed to spin off as many paper gold claims against their holdings as they liked. We are now at 100+ claims per oz.
This is how the gold / silver price is manipulated. If it rises too high, 2 million oz of gold paper are dumped into the market on no news. Until this extremely effective and legal price control system is broken, the prices are not going anywhere, even if there is a crash in the dollar, pound, Euro, etc.
Pepe’s best and most important article in quite some time. Essential reading.
2 key points:
– BRICS+ = BRICS plus special guests Mexico, Egypt, Thailand, Tajikistan, Guinea (why Guinea?)
– Oil, Yuan & Gold = Win-Win-Win
Why Guinea?
Answer:
“Qian Feng, an expert at the Chinese Association for South Asian Studies, said these five countries were chosen based on their closeness with China, their regional economic or political influence, and whether their leaders are available during the summit.
“Most of these countries are important regional players. For example, Egypt is a leading country in northern Africa and has much political sway in the Middle East. So is Thailand in Southeast Asia and Mexico in Latin America. Tajikistan is China’s strategic partner, which also plays an important role in China’s border security,” Qian told the Global Times.
“Meanwhile, Guinea is this year’s chair of the African Union and is one of the first African nations to receive Chinese aid. It is rich in natural resources and has developed a close partnership with China politically and in trade, according to He Wenping, a research fellow at the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.”
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1063944.shtml
Surprise—more THAADS going in to SK!
tasnimnews.com/en/news/2017/09/06/1512281/us-to-deploy-four-additional-thaad-systems-in-south-korea
Kimmy Kim Chi’s reaction: Watch out, Radioactive Man!:
http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5927093b621e6c3e008b4c09-480/kim-jong-un.jpg
Talks on Iran-EAEU Partnership in Final Phase: Russian Official
Eurasian Economic Union
tasnimnews.com/en/news/2017/09/06/1512411/talks-on-iran-eaeu-partnership-in-final-phase-russian-official
The Eurasian Economic Union is an economic union of states located primarily in northern Eurasia. The Treaty aiming for the establishment of the EAEU was signed on 29 May 2014 by the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, and came into force on 1 January 2015. Treaties aiming for Armenia’s and Kyrgyzstan’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union were signed on 9 October and 23 December 2014, respectively. Armenia’s accession treaty came into force on 2 January 2015. Kyrgyzstan’s accession treaty came into effect on 6 August 2015. It participated in the EAEU from the day of its establishment as an acceding state.
Another below par article by Pepe Escobar replete with with projections but short on facts. Over hyping the BRICS does harm to the BRICS it’s better to stick to the facts rather than set up folks for a disappointment.
Today RT’s Boom Bust show, covering Xiamen, reported that the BRICS, for the first time, include government sponsored terrorist groups of Pakistan on their list of violent terrorist groups that need to be eliminated. What is significant about this is that China signed on to this declaration. So much for Pepe’s made-up assertion that China & Russia “vetoed” this from happening (certainly Russia wouldn’t do that because Russia is not known for shielding terrorists as it diametrically contradicts Putin’s policy of “no good terrorists”)
This is good news for the BRICS because not only are the two most significant BRICS members, India & China are in agreement on Pakistan based Wahabist terrorist groups, another very important point in they both agree on is Myanmar’s struggle against Rohingya terrorists: they both support myanmar’s fight against western sponsored rohingyas Islamist terrorists. Incredibly, even the West’s previous darling, Ang Sang Suu chi, has openly pointed the figure at the UK and the UK’s gulf Arab client states as being the main supporters of rohingya Islamist terrorist groups. (same old script the vampires in the UK used to portray Kosovo Albanians as innocent victims and the poor Serbs as the genocidal aggressors).
So hopefully the BRICS members can try to stay united on these points of common interests.
@ Al
Those of us that know even a little about finance know that this announcement by China is massive. Terrorism is part of the dollar system, as a useful mercenary army and a useful lever on domestic public opinion.
When the Dollar loses its weight in the world, so will Wahabbism fade away. So terrorism is of secondary (or less) importance than this direct attack on the dollar.
more signals & hints.
https://eadaily.com/en/news/2017/09/04/bakus-factor-or-fear-of-russia-armenias-walkout-against-nato
Armenia refused to attend NATO Agile Spirit – 2017 multinational drill underway in Georgia for a series of reasons. Experts say Armenia made a U-turn at the last gasp, as Azerbaijan decided to attend the drill again at the last gasp. Recall that Armenia has a very sad experience of attending a NATO event with participation of Azerbaijan. In 2004, Azerbaijani officer Ramil Safarov viciously killed Armenian officer Gurgen Margaryan in Budapest. The officers were attending a NATO-organized English-language training courses there. Perhaps, this time, the Armenian military were not provided with sufficient security guarantees to attend the NATO drill in Georgia.
A somewhat different version of this essay was published today by RT. As I posted yesterday, the pre-Summit open letter written by Putin should be compared with the closing Summit Statement and the additional link to globalresearch in the RT version. https://www.rt.com/op-edge/402218-brics-strike-back-russia-china/
For the commenter named Al–the facts are all portrayed at the links Pepe provided; he just recaps the main points for us and points us in the right direction.
@Commenter Outlaw Historian,
In your opinion the facts were laid out. The truth is they were not facts but conjecture by Pepe Escobar.
You are probably not aware that the last BRICS was held in India and Modi and the Indian delegation did not hold back from naming Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism and Modi did so right in front of Xi and Putin in his main speech and and at the conclusion of the summit. So much for Pepe’s fiction that both Russia and China vetoed condemnation of Pakistan based terror groups. As stated before, it flies in the face of logic that Putin would stand in the way of such a declaration since that would imply that he’s an unprincipled man that doesn’t take a consistent stance against all Islamist terrorist groups, in particular terrorist groups that are used as instruments of state policy (as in the case of the Anglo-vampire establishment based in Londonistan as well as their client state Pakistan). Pepe provided no proof nor sources to back up his statement. It is believable that China ran interference to protect their client state Pakistan in the last BRICS summit, but not Russia. The fact that in this summit India forced the inclusion of these Pakistan terrorist groups into an official BRICS declaration and China and Russia both signed onto this declaration only further undermines and discredits Pepe’s fiction that Russia vetoed a condemnation of Pakistan terrorist groups.
It is noteworthy that the Pakistan media has taken seriously China’s signature on this BRICS declaration that names and condemns the main Pakistan sponsored terrorist groups. What adds insult to further injury is that this declaration came out of a BRICS summit hosted by China. If anything this implies that both Russia and India applied pressure on China to sign on, not the other way around.
Today India’s PM. Modi very explicitly, on camera, standing next to Ang San Sui kyi and General Minhg (Head of the Myabmar armed forces), supported Myanmar’s military operations against the so-called “Rohingya-Resistance” aka ethnic Bangladesh Islamist illegal immigrants terrorists. This has caused a meltdown amongst the terrorist supporting/Sympathizing BBC and their British vampire establishment. So much for the nonsense that Modi is a western stooge: he just poked a needle on the terrorist sponsoring Anglo/EU deep states collective eye (Rohingya “persecution” like the earlier kosovar albanian “persecution” narrative is a cause célèbre for the Western MSM & deep state). Now India has added their voice to China’s in condemning “Rohingya” terrorism in Myanmar. With both India’s and China’s supporting Myanmar, the criminals in the Empire (especially the UK) don’t stand a chance of succeeding. Perhaps Myanmar will be another region (like Syria) that the Anglo terrorists and their Islamist useful idiots will get a stiff boot to their murderoua asses.
Looking at the northern geopol events, here’s what’s going on with Nord Stream 2.
basically the twinned NG to europe Gazprom pipeline to the1100 km sub-Baltic Nord Stream 1 already there. supposedly $11B if built today’s costs.
gazprom.com/preview/f/posts/15/336269/w1000_nord-streams-map-en-2016-05.jpg
Those fearless Danes, vikings of yore, are continuing their pedigree first displayed by the stalwart King Canute II (yes, a landed dane viking then on the english throne, one of a series that era) going to the seaside & commanding the tides stop!
SEPT 2
https://sputniknews.com/business/201709021057031677-denmark-bill-nord-stream-2/
Copenhagen is preparing a bill that could stop the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is planned to deliver Russian gas to a number of European nations.
Pushback still ongoing, getting as fierce as that viking marauder Hagar the Horrible:
http://img14.deviantart.net/4c95/i/2013/322/e/a/hagar_the_horrible_and_lucky_eddie_by_grodandor-d6uqhxo.jpg
Oh, that Canute thing again:
Have they gone completely Canutes?
>> THURSDAY, MAY 31, 2012
…at the summit of his power, he ordered a seat to be placed for him on the sea-shore when the tide was coming in; thus seated, he shouted to the flowing sea, “Thou, too, art subject to my command, as the land on which I am seated is mine; and no one has ever resisted my commands with impunity. I command you, then, not to flow over my land, nor presume to wet the feet and the robe of your lord.” The tide, however, continuing to rise as usual, dashed over his feet and legs without respect to his royal person. Then the king leaped backwards, saying: “Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings, for there is none worthy of the name, but He whom heaven, earth and sea obey by eternal laws.” From thenceforth King Canute never wore his crown of gold, but placed it for a lasting memorial on the image of our Lord affixed to a cross, to the honour of God the almighty King: through whose mercy may the soul of Canute, the king, enjoy everlasting rest.
– The Chronicle Of Henry Of Huntingdon,
edited and translated by Thomas Forester (1853), p. 199
Amen.
You may know, already: the whole King Canute story–the famous one, as told above by Henry Of Huntingdon–is grossly misunderstood the way it’s usually referenced. It often seems to be used as an example of hubris, when the original story was all about the humility. Indeed, there are some proper versions of it that lay the setup on a little thick: Canute’s advisors are standing around flattering him when he basically says, “Fine, take me down to the ocean and we’ll see just how fine and mighty I am.” And then when his feet get wet, he pretty much tells his advisors, “Up yours.” I may be paraphrasing that a little. Anyway, it isn’t a story about arrogance at all: Canute’s point in going down to the seaside (assuming for the sake of argument there’s any truth in the legend at all) was to practically demonstrate just how small and temporal the power of earthly kings really is. You might be the awesomest Anglo-Saxon king ever, but the tide keeps on rolling in and out. (And then the Normans come round and kick your family out of England, but that’s a whole ‘nother story.)
http://shouldersofgiantmidgets.blogspot.com/2012/05/have-they-gone-completely-canutes.html
It’s 2017. Do we really need a “golden” solution to sink the petrodollar? What we really need is a financial solution for international trade that is resistant to unilateral sanctions, outside the SWIFT system.
“Gold backed” or “convertible to gold” is an illusion. Nobody will buy a bread or a banana using a piece of gold. Not even when SHTF. No professional party will buy the contents of an oiltanker with gold bars. That’s just not how settlement goes or should go. Why would any bank, central bank (I know, different discussion altogether!), financial institution, etc. want to sit on a pile of metal? How can anyone check if the gold is in the vault? Can trust only be bought with (the illusion of) a pile of shiny metal?
Goldbugs go wild with discussions about paper gold, physical gold and price manipulation by a Rothschild family member or Illuminati. If observed by alien life, this obsession with a type of metal would probably be qualified as an ancient ritual or superstition.
Cryptocurrencies for example show how you can create a store of value and/or an instrument for settlement that is highly resistant to outside interference.
There are different ways to create enough trust for a system to work. It doesn’t have to be a piece of metal, a shiny piece of glass or a bag of salt.
It’s time to reinvent the financial wheel, not only to sink the petrodollar but to rid the world once and for all from fractional reserve banking and central banks.
“Cryptocurrencies for example show how you can create a store of value and/or an instrument for settlement that is highly resistant to outside interference.”
Ummhumm, ’till the power goes out. Then what?
….then start the generator…
@AJ The key word seems to be “trust” here, and lots of people just don’t seem to trust cryptos.
Variance Doc (above) mentions the “what if the power goes out?” question — which I personally see as a non-issue for international trade — but in any case there are lots of people who think this way, and I’m becoming doubtful that rational arguments will ever sway them.
The bigger problem I see is trying to go “outside” the existing financial system. Russia and China are building an alternative to SWIFT, but the CBR and PBOC are still members of BIS and AFAIK the CBR isn’t owned by the Russian Federation. Why not, and why this isn’t a priority, I do not know. They could de-dollarize, but all the other CBs in the world can still apply pressure on them, and I assume on policy questions the CBR will side with their central banker brothers before they side with the Russian Federation.
I am interested in cryptos as an alternative to this sstem, but I wonder to what extent they can escape regulation for international trade.
Most people have no idea how money is created out of thin air by (central) banks yet they do trust their dollars and euro’s. It’s no coincidence that this subject isn’t covered in depth in the education of the masses.
Running a transparant decentralized blockchain with a fixed maximum amount of coins has more appeal than QE policies, negative interest, etc.
The petrodollar is big financial recycling operation to fund perpetual war/terror and run a mind boggling deficit. If the US can slap sanctions on any country it wants, why can’t the rest of the world return the favor by blocking dollar transactions?
If the DPRK would freeze all dollar accounts and criminalize dollar transactions, global impact would be minimal. If major economies on the receiving end of US policy would do that in a coordinated action, the impact would be immediate.
@AJ True, a great many people are “conditioned” to not think about where money comes from, but I’ve had this conversation dozens of times and what I notice is that most people “know” it’s all arbitrary but it’s very difficult for them to imagine it being otherwise. On the one hand, they don’t have any understanding of how the global financial system works, but on the other hand they are realists in the sense that they understand the power of central banks and have little faith that millions of people might suddenly start to think otherwise. Their thinking about this is very pragmatic, of course. It’s all very “sensible” and it’s difficult to persuade people to suddenly stop being sensible.
So now along come cryptocurrencies, but to understand them requires a pretty serious re-think of money, currencies, and so forth. I don’t know about you, but news of Bitcoin reached me several years before I really understood its meaning or significance. It took a long time to sink in, and probably only because I really made an effort to educate myself. I talk about cryptos with all of my friends, and they just kind of look at me like I’m talking about a new hobby of raising fish or gardening, etc. Even the ones who seem to understand what cryptos are about just say things like “oh well, it’s too late to get into this bla bla”.
The take away for me is that we should not underestimate the time and effort required to simply get people onboard with the idea of cryptos as an alternative. They are losing money by using fiat, of course, but mostly it has served them well and they are not ready to leave their comfort zone. Also, it’s pretty hard to convince people to buy into cryptos given the extreme volatility. “Yeah, yesterday it was over 5000 and then it crashed down to 4000 but come on in, that water’s fine!!”
As for the DPRK freezing dollar accounts, my understanding is that they are really in a position of weakness w.r.t. trade and this is in part why they press forward with their nuclear program in such a confrontational manner. It’s not just about security, but also about forcing the West to come to the negotiating table and make some concessions.
We can agree about the effects of a coordinated action against the dollar, but I really don’t see this happening unless there is already an outbreak of war. Europe won’t do this in peacetime because the EU is basically a vassal in the American Empire and such a dramatic action would be severely punished. China is not a vassal, but if they were to criminalize dollar transactions it would probably be treated as a de facto declaration of war.
Not acceptable. A country cannot function without a central bank, on condition that the bank is in GOVERNMENT hands, and NOT in private hands, like the US Fed. As for sovereign currencies, history has proven that they cannot function if they bare not backed by gold. The US dollar is not backed by gold, and is now printed in huge amounts backed by NOTHING. The only thing keeping the US dollar afloat is the US military, which is giving countries the choice between regime change or a heap of bombs if they do not use the dollar. Well, this type of gangsterism in international affairs is not acceptable. Russia and China are already trading in rubles and yuans, and others are preparing to do so, if they are not already doing it. As far as I can see, Wall Street is petrified of the repercussions if both Russia and China introduce gold backed currencies, which they certainly will. Once this happens, Wall Street will be flooded with a heap of worthless dollars which nobody wants. What then ?
South Africa makes up the small ¨s¨ at the end of BRICS and no-one really pays much attention to it – and it is rarely covered in the news (anywhere). Besides being rotten with corruption, that country has entered a major socio-political crisis due to the ANC government´s rejection of the 1994 democratic constitution and its raced-based policies of increasingly (it has already been going for for 15 years, but now increasing this) excluding white people from the economy, in addition to now also accelerating so-called land reform, having its eyes on prime farm land that has been owned for centuries by boer farmers that legitimately obtained during the founding of the country (title deeds exist), yet they are relentlessly persuing this. The West and East has given it licence to do what it wants because it knows it won´t be criticised – and it plays both sides for that very reason (resource related access levarage East and West).
It is going to probably dawn too late on some commentators that SA is ideologically firmly on the Progressive Left side (of the Western world) – they are making use of every tool in the shed of the progressive left to manupulate and corral the local population and to stir up racial divisions – to the extent that they are making use of Anglo PR firms to run their operations. Morally speaking the other BRICs are doing business with a repressive and racist regime and will have to take a position (or even a stand in an ideal world…) at some point – especially those members who tend to project a very high moral approach (in relation to the West), the point being that double standards are going to be exposed naturally by remaining mum on what is happenings in South Africa. Apartheid was wrong then (remmber the Anti-Aparheid movement?), what makes cultural genocide right, now?.
Is it all just about the resources? If that´s the case what makes BRICS any different from the West?
BTW: being against protectionism sounds like being pro-globalisation (?).
“South Africa makes up the small ¨s¨ at the end of BRICS”
Really? I’ve never seen it spelled that way. I notice, though, you spelt BRICS with the “s” in upper case. Perhaps you are simply expressing your own wishful thinking here?
Vot tak, have you ever made the effort to have a look at South Africa´s economy compared to the other BRICs… ? It´s a small ¨s¨as you will see for yourself. Why should I express ¨wishful thinking¨? I´m only expressing facts. Would you be so kind to enlighten us as to how South Africa makes up a large ¨S¨ in BRICs? Militarily? Economically? Morally… ?
I think you are the one that is doing the wishful thinking. SA is a member of BRICs for resources.
You may as well admit it – no shame in it by the way.
ast
It really pissed you guys off when South Africa dropped apartheid and included the ANC in the government. Right after that happened, israel took its ball and went home in one of their usual gay pouts.
It´s a well know fact that white South Africans overwhelmingly voted in a referendum to give apartheid up prior to the first one-man-one vote democratic national election in 1994. We were not pissed off then. We are disappointed now: We voted for and support democracy with a constitution that protects minority rights – and our rights are being taken away. We are dissapointed and frankly disgusted with the hypocracy on all sides: West and East.
Whatever – this apartheid horse has been flogged to death a million times over, but still it´s like the gift that never stops giving for leftists and liberals – I mean, why not flog the sekeleton a few times more – anything to avoid having the new government taking responsibility for anything at all.
No idea why you would want to bring Israel into it, but if you actually think they lost all interest in S.A, you can´t be more wrong… However, if you had any actual interest in S.A. you would lready know that – so your entire response is just to avoid answering the question I posed to you.
Mod – this is the last comment I am posting on this topic on this thread – thank you.
And yet South Africa is a place where white farmers convicted of trying to murder and bury alive a black worker get to go home and spend time with their families prior to sentencing. It’s also a country where a whites only police unit regularly murdered, on camera, black suspects while the callous and savage girlfriends of the police officers took trophy pictures of dying or murdered suspects (go look it up it was broadcast on an RT -Russia Today- documentary). It’s also the country where whites continue to be wealthiest and most privileged minority to this day. Please cry my a river. I seriously doubt that China, India or Russia have sympathy for your point of view neither would Brasil.
Ha! Brazil is in a mess… It should be RICS, not BRICS… Brazil is no more…
Remember that we had a ‘parliamentary’ coup d’etat a year ago. Now, a criminal is in the BRICS meeting as if he deserves to be there! He does NOT represent Brazil. It was the previous government of the Workers Party that struggled for over a decade to raise Brazil from poverty. But, there was an enormous conspiracy against this government. The current illegal president, then a vice-president, was an active participant in the coup – he is the godfather of the mafia that destroyed Brazil. Since then Brazil is going downhill… Our economy is lost… The people in power should be in jail or sent to the guillotine for privatizing our oil, networks of distribution of oil and electricity, our land – Amazon is for sale! They should be executed for destroying the Brazilian Labour Law and sending millions to poverty and famine…
I have know idea why you went on diatribe about Brasil, it had nothing to do with my repost against unmanly wingeing/whining about the nonexistent racial disadvantages Anglos and Afrikaners face in South Africa.
O que você acha? que sou brasileiro? Não meu amigo não sou brasileiro nem português também. Summary: just because I used the Portuguese spelling for Brasil don’t assume I’m Brazilian nor Portuguese.
Now to address you point re Brasil:
Yes I agree, that Brasil is an underperforming country run by an economically and geopolitically shortsighted elite (often corrupt); a nation that is ahead of the globe in terms of interpersonal civility, ethnoevolution, natural resources, sexual culture, hybridization. Unfortunately their elite and privileged upper middleclass, from which Pepe Escobar came from, are prone to corruption and a weakness to compromise integrity for narrow personal gain.
Brasil is a great example of where the crony-capitalist elite of the extreme right would take the US: towards a society of extremely distorted national income distribution that will cripple a nation’s potential due to the underutilization of the genius, talent and economic potential of its people. Keeping people poor thru state coercion, crony anti competitiveness, distortion of the market, selfishness & moronic shortsightedness and constricting the flow of capital to only a few chosen families leads creates an a
arteriosclerotic economic weakling that will never reach its full potential: Hoarding a nations wealth in the hands of a few leads to national economic decline.
However Brasil does belong on the BRICS because it represents more than 50% of the economy of South America and it has common interests with underdeveloped nations such as China and India and it shares commonality with resource heavy economically low-income and demographically weak Russia. Given the common interests and weaknesses regarding global economic policies of these 4-5 nations, it makes sense for them to meet and present a united front to the declining incumbents in multilateral fora.
Anonymouse, in fact those farmers were not granted bail – they sat in prison for months without trail – please be truthful. Months later when all the media (including RT) had already jumped to conclusions a longer video was released and those farmers had the opportunity to actually give their side of the story. The purposefully and deliberately filmed the incident in order to prove and have evidence that they did not assult the person tresspassing on their farm – he was not a worker – he had stolen copper cables. He was on private property.You know very well that farmers are targeted for assult and murder on their farms and they are reverting to extreme methods to dissuade would be thiefs and murderers. They pushed that man into an empty coffin to give him a fright. Weeks later he went to the police to complain and in court it was proven that he contradicted his story several times over – by then it had all turned into a massive political event.
What these farmers did, was, of course, WRONG! BUT, not reporting on the slow genocide of white people and especially, quite specifically white farmers, is also WRONG. The president of South Africa has been singing a song ¨Kill the farmer, Kill the Boer¨for years!. The opposition party (EFF) leader, Julius Malema (many indications are that he is sponsored by the West – he had some meetings with people while he travelled in Europe) has done the same. (I´m assuming this is the case you are referring to – it is the only incindent I saw reported on RT) – if it was another incident please post the link here as I am unaware of it. Nevertheless RT has never done a program on the threat that farmers face in South Africa and for balance they should do so.
Well, it may well be that China, India, Russia or Brasil have no sympathy for my point of view (it´s not about me, by the way – I am just pointing out moral discrepencies and double standards and why shouldn´t I – I support the BRICS, but this is compromising it´s image)…
However, if that is the case then they don´t care for democracy or constitutional rights or human rights, and I very seriously doubt that. I think it is just not very expedient or comfirtable for them to say anything,especially because it could tarnish the image of BRICS.
These hated farmers provide food for the entire nation – they farm for all of South Africa and they are being systematically taken out. There used to be 100 000 farmers in that country, now only 35000 and dwindling.You don´t need to be a brain surgeon to come to the conclusion that the country will likely have food security problems in the future if this continues. Will the other BRICS supply famine relief?
“It’s also the country where whites continue to be wealthiest and most privileged minority to this day.” So how do you explain that the black middle class is 3 times the size of the entire white population…?
Well, how do you empower people? You educate them. Let me ask you: How many universities have been built since the end of Apartheid? That´s right: Not one. Nada, nil. And the black universities that were built during apartheid are bankrupt and in disrepair.
The White population used to be 25% of the population (some 40/50 years ago), now only about 8%. Guess why? No, all those people did not emigrate (some did yes), but this is due to African population growth. Should white people 24 years after the end of apartheid be resposnible for Africans having large families and tripling their size in numbers? In fact formal unemployement amongts whites would have been sky-high due to affirmative action policies being in place for years, meaning whites are barred from employent other than in exceptioal cases. The job sector would rather contract / import British engineers, for example, than employ qualified white South African engineers in the country.
A lot of the poverty is due to many subsistence farmers in the rural areas like in the old homelands (Transkei and Ciskei) migrating to the cities where there is no work for them because they do not have an education, so end up in squatter camps – this movement has increased exponentially since the end of apartheid as those homelands used to be subsidised by the previous government.
I am not surprised by your comment, but you need to know that collective punishment is against international law (even if nobody pays attention to it anymore), the BRICS countries (or to be fair, SOME of them, perhaps only a couple) are specifically putting themselves forward as supporting internatioal law.
South Africa pulled out of the ICC recently, and although one can undestand that to an extent, because only African leaders ever end up in the ICC, at the same time it means that can go ahad with their anti-white campaign.
There was a democratic election in 1994 through a negotiated settlement where all the parties agreed on a constitution – the ANC is now rejecting this constituition and implementing its NDR (so-called National Democratic Revolution) – this is NOT what South Africans voted for in 1994, which means they (The ANC) negotiated in BAD FAITH.
I would like to invite you and anyone else to watch this documentary film for some background on the ANC´s armed struggle and the processes that lead up to the negotiations and how they were conducted and what was agreed – with extensive interviews with leading politicians at the time. Considering the general lack of context and backround that people have about any of this and because S.A. is likely to feature more and more due to some of the issues I have brought up, it may be worth watching:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXiuO5Guds4
FinallyI want to say that the SA government has removed the right of Afrikaners to receive an education in their home language and it is being removed from the very universities that they built more than 300 years ago. The Afrikaans langauge faces losing its status as an academic language. It was developed as a response to British opression becauase the English forced the Afrikaners to speak English after the Boer War. Now, the ANC is forcing the Afrikaners to learn in the langauge of their previous opressors… Are they joking!? Something similar to what happened in the East of Ukraine is happening in South Africa and the Afrikaners are the target this time, but this is not interesting for some reason. Look who is looking away now – everyone, because Afrikaners (ALL Afrikaners) are “un-people” and deserve everything that comes their way for what they have done (or that is how the thinking goes) – the crime of apartheid …the biggest crime in the history of humanity… yet, somehow no genocide happened and the black population multiplied several times over – unlike for example in Australia where there was indeed a genocide – yet, everyone loves those Aussies! Indeed the Aussies were one of the biggest supporters of the sanctions against SA…ironic. (Nice if you have special exemption). Lets not even talk about the Native American land not having been returned yet.l
Afrikaners are a conservative people and they are Christians and traditionalists – and have much more in common with Russians than with Anglos – please bear this in mind.The South African government is presently removing Christianity from all public schools. They are following a globalist agenda.
I noticed that you had nothing to say about the president of South Africa making use of a campaign to stir up racial divisions in his own country to the point of civil war – here is a short BBC clip about the surreal events that played off and it being BBC some info is left out, but at least you get an idea of how this happaned:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KSHC6UPUgA
Here is an interview by (by black and white) commentators shortly after the leaks were revealed, discussing whether SA can ever recover from the damage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRVXi30Z_H0
Generally you have shown knee-jerk reaction, Anonymouse with a lot PR style rhetoric – not that we as South Africans expect anything different after what has been happening.
The Truth will out – wrong is wrong.
Dear Astronaut,
I do sympathize with some of the points you made. However, what you are about to read might offend you, but try to read to the end to understand the point I’m getting at.
The complaints of South African Anglos, White Jews, and (to a lesser extent, Afrikaners, who themselves were victims of the Anglo empire) about the loss of their property theft privileges, their right to enslave the native population, to rearchitect the native culture and family structure, and to steal the native populations natural resources, mirrors the complaints of the Oligarches that looted Russia and the shameless complaints of discrimination coming from their specific community.
There’s no point in debating you on the current ailments (symptoms) of South Africa when you have so thoroughly closed your mind to some straight historic facts (including the billions of dollars of wealth, hard capital, soft capital & resources, the Anglos and their converts, the Afrikaners, usurped out of that country) the barbaric way they treated the native population, the destruction of they imposed on native social systems, societal regulatory systems and the assault on the black family unit. <–The causes.
To give an insight about how self blind your response seems to be, let me point out: you have no right to complain about how big someone else's family is or ought to be (particularly when it was the Anglo empire that destroyed the native tribal culture that limited population growth (such as a groom having to work for years to pay the bride-price in Bantu culture). It isn't the black populations fault that Anglo and Afrikaners are not having large families, to argue otherwise is to be self blind and self centered. If you or your community has imbibed the poison chalice of kinder-hostile, family contemptuous, materialistic, anti-spiritual modern Western culture, a culture that has lead to population shrinkage of your community, that is your community's own fault not of black Africans. They're not stopping you from having large families.
Regarding what the white farmers did to their victim, are you kidding? And you cannot see that the attempted lynching they performed and filmed is proof that they felt the right to do what they did, that it flows from the normal modus operandi of white farmers in Africa having actually commited murders with impunity for decades in the past (I know this from personal experience) and is indicative of the culture of white farmers in Africa that they even considered such a lawless act OK and legal and even filmed it to prove that they had not murdered anyone (they've normalized beating someone up, terrorizing them and torturing them, because unlike their elders they didn't actually murder the guy, so they deserve a medal), thinking somehow that whatever they had done was not cruel and illegal but normal (probably because their fathers and uncles got away with far worse).
Anglos, South African European Jews and Afrikaners have special privilege in South African courts even today. I won't get into the point by point, you still haven't addressed how a post-apartheid white police "death squad unit" which took pleasure in filming their crimes (along with their savage girlfriends frolicking over the dead and dying, like Nazi Frau or ukronazi bimbos), how is it that did so with impunity and are still free? Special privilege of the previous corrupt elite paying off the current elite.
From the civility of your response you seem to be a person with a decent center, in anguish, searching for answers. While you are factually right that the corrupt black establishment is doing a poor job of managing the country, it is irrelevant because the counter argument that the Anglos did a better job, does not hold: the per capita income for all South Africans (that's right the black people need to included in the count) was piss poor under aparthied as it is now, the differencing being that the majority of resources, legal protections and income went to the Anglo minority. Even if economic conditions were better for all under apartheid, it's still irrelevant. Because stealing, subjugation and virtual slavery is wrong.
You need to recognize and take responsibility that the current Anglo and Afrikaner population of South Africa have inherited and enjoy both the benefits (stolen national wealth in their family capital) and have inherited and suffer the laibilities accrued from the colonial and apartheid era. The liabilities being the situation you face today. You assume that the benefits are a cost less birthright but you seem to forget that the liabilities also come with it.
Your real ire should be directed at the British who created this mess, not the blacks. It was they who twisted the Afrikaners into a racist mold (after having brutalized them), where before the Brits, Afrikaners had a more natural relationship with the native Khokhoi/bushmen and Bantu populations that would have evolved into something equitable.
Hello Anonymouse, unfortunately it is not possible to debate with you, because of your taking out of context various facts and twisting events to suit your own view – you make a lot of generalisations and connect things that are unrelated.
I asked you to post a link to that event that you mentioned about the post-aparteid police, because I am not awareof it – I cannot comment on it until you do. ALL racism by police is wrong, but you need to know that black on white racism happens by black police officers all the time (even physical attacks by them on white citizens) and in many cases they simply refuse to investiate any cases brought by white complainents. Dockets are lost and many murders and other crimes are never solved.
In my previous comment I already said that what those farmers did to the trespasser was wrong – yet you say that I am trying to normalise it. I also said that the farm murder and torture epidemic is wrong and should also be covered – all mainstream media is avoiding it. Being a farmer in South Africa is more dangerous than being a police man in that country:
http://www.radiofreesouthafrica.com/drastic-increase-farm-murders-afriforum/
‘Farm murders may increase to 70 or 80 this year’:
http://projects.huffingtonpost.co.za/articles/a-bloody-shame-demystifying-farm-murders-in-south-africa/
PDF document with year-on-year statistics of farm murders:
https://africacheck.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/260417ANI-ENGLISH.pdf
I also made the point several times that it is due to the Anglo PR campaign (did you watch the videos I posted?) – ordered by the S. African government – so it is an Anglo-African collaboration that has caused increased racial tensions. I also mentionesd that opposition parties (EFF and DA) are getting PR and other support from abroad – so the ANC campaign was a counter-campaign: both campaigns use 2 subjects: `(land) and (racism) especially in relation to Afrikaners to stir people up – because these are emotional points that can always rally people around it and people are easily manipulated with facts being twisted.
Keep in mind that generally speaking untill about 2010 / 2011 everything went relatively well with South African democracy – it is only after Nelson Mandela passed away that the goverment changed policy. The NDR.
I am not sure you fully understand some of the context and that is why you don´t respond to some important factors, also you are mixing a lot of things up and I haven´t got the time to clarify everything. However, your last paragraph contain a couple of good points.
Also, you are absolutely correct about how previously the wealth stolen by multi-nationals(these all went mainly to Anglo corporations. There are no Afrikaner corporations abroad – South Africa is the only country where Afrikaners are native) was taken abroad (that´s why the English/British colonised South Africa and they also stole/annexed Afrikaner lands), but keep in mind that´s the case in every singe country in the world that has resources – as much then as today – and there are always locals collaborating – just like today: the ANC is presently selling the country off in a fire sale to everyone who would pay big enough bribes – have a look at the e-mail leaks and you will see how many very prominent European, Chinese and even Canadian firms are implicated in this in the Gupta e-mail leaks 2017: See leaks webisites – you can do a search. So the African government is doing the same as the coloialists.
There is a huge race-baiting project happening in the South African media to portray white people as terrible racsists that have not changed their ways since apartheid – and due to the general lack of information that people have about South Africa today they are likely to believe it. If the world prefers to remain ignorant,so be it, but whatever is happening in SA has the potential to arrive everywhere else.
I´ll leave it there – thanks for the debate – I hope you will take a more neutral view in future and consider all racism, opression and crime to be equal, whether committed by or to any race – equally.
Here is the latest news regarding the PR firm involved in the anti-white campaign – it´s going into liquidation in the UK – lots of links from this article to get an overview of this whole saga, whish is one of the most under-reported global scandals of 2017.
http://www.biznews.com/global-citizen/2017/09/08/bell-pottinger-bankruptcy-gupta/
This (older) article gives an idea of some of the bribery that was going on, involving multi-nationals:
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-08-08-amabhungane-and-scorpio-guptaleaks-how-the-guptas-paid-for-zuma-home/
Please can you stop taking this off-topic and take your conversation to the MFC which is set up for off-topic comments. Mod
Another great analysis from Pepe! A question I’d like to ask would be, ‘what kind of aid did/does China provide Syria?’ It must be very clandestine otherwise, the usual suspects would be trying to missrepresent it for the masses.
A partial answer:
Bullets, lots of very cheap and effective Salafist terrorist killing bullets.
Also all the raw materials necessary to mass produce barrel bombs that are dropped onto the heads Wahabist Takfiri terrorists as they flee, in panic, like rats at the prospect of getting an early trip to the Salafist version of Valhalla.
Machine equipment, power equipment, construction tools, raw materials for general ordinance, communication equipment (commercial and military). Point to point microwave transmitters with encryption, etcetera.
Some of this shipped directly into Syria, the rest via Iran.
Modi is nothing but a bufoon playing in hands of RSS who are mostly bending towards Israel and America…first we need to screw these RSS fellows in india then the so called poster boys like modi…. These fellows in india want to fill their pockets and secure their futures …they dont want to think about the masses of india…what is wrong with india …..why is it not strengthening its ties with china…who is opposing the world hegemon.. ..we need to forget old botter days …and join hands with china mainly and work for the betterment of world..
The development of the Au-Yuan Policy (gold/Yuan/Policy) is a natural and fully expected process that the principal agents, China/Ru have obviously built in a cathodic positioning – a holding back..
The schedule of ethics is, like ethics itself, situational. Now seems to be the time. Makes sense.
Good take on the business!
But, even though it’s only marginally involved, the east coast us storm looks like a trigger created by many years of really greedy “development” (theft and schemes…) during which the engineering recommendations were ignored. Trigger?
Between the rush toward safety of the embrace of Ru/Ch, the gold Yuan, and the storm blasting the east coast (see https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas ( for the best projection of tracks )) between these and related matters, events, it is reasonable to expect a cascade of snafu leading toward chaos and widespread fubars…costing mountains of money and materials and labor that will suck the life out and trigger the ruin in – well, east of Mississippi river and maybe worse. Trigger lengthy process of shattering the political space and more.
The thing that our privileged generation does not have–at least the thinking percentage of it–is positive hope for the future. Most of us who read widely understand full well that the 21st century is going to be a bottleneck for our species, a convergence of negative conditions that will cause the death of billions of us. This won’t just be because we have exceeded all the eco-limits for the carrying capacity of the planet. More to the point of what is US and UK doing , we are exceeding our tiny-brained, tribal-oriented psychological limitations, as is especially apparent with alt-right rabble; that is, those whose response to “big picture” data is either denialism (of fact or other povs) or violence. Since we evolved in small groups, our individual allegiance is to merely the similarly afflicted in immediate attendance, not to the larger quandries that challenge all of humanity. Religion, itself tribal, just exacerbates the blindness. And degenerate wanna-be fascists such as Trump and his monkeys who jump through the brass ring in Europe …
Of, well. Humanity is, after all, just an interesting experiment towards intelligence
My Dear Mr Escobar
That’s quite a mouthful and I more than convinced, your one of the best in your field at making these analysis. So at the real risk of sounding smart ass, which is my last intention. May I just say what is being missed is the fact that a new multi-lateral financial system that is going to replace the worn completely out Bretton Woods System from 1944 is being born.
The big difference between the application of the new multi-lateral SDR system and the replacement of older world reserve currencies is that the system that built the USA empire and those before it is that this one is being born before a world war instead of after. That is proving to be quite a feat and because it involves the peaceful dismantling of empire in the process. Never have any of the uni-polar empires of the past or of today ‘gone gently into the goodnight,” neither will this present one. But go it will.
This is nothing new or unheard of at the highest levels of international banking, global corporations, and intelligence agencies, this has always been the way of it. By their very nature uni-polar, i.e. one nation reserve currencies create imbalance, this is referred to as the Tiffen effect. Boiled down to brass tacks the one nation reserve currency allow one nation to prosper over all others because of the power of it’s printing press and perforce all other nations to conduct trade in the reserve nations currency, I.E. dollars.
“They have the money bags
But we have all the brains”
In 1944 the British had the best intelligence services in the world and had had it and the pound sterling as the worlds reserve currency for about a hundred years. By 1944 not so much, they thought they still had the brains, but by by the closing days of then WWll the money bags were gone.
Brains=intelligence=ego.
In 1944 the USA by hook and by crook held 2/3 of all the known, or admitted to, gold in the world. Gold=the shine=power. Start to see where is going?
All the geopolitical carving up and drawing of new borders that went on in 1944 after the collapse of the British empire and the second of two world wars was just that, geo, the political ground game. The bigger more important project was being battled in Bretton Woods. At stake in that battle waged in inscrutable esoteric language of and age old craft that em-PLOY-ed terms like ‘gold-convertible currency’ as an example of thousands of words delegates from the other nations as per instance, India would demand definition, they would be given a discussion that would be so technical that it would be referred to ‘committee’ for clarification. A committee stocked with financial wizards so artful in age old craft of Babylonian money magick by the time it got back to the delegate that requested the definition all but the genius would be spellbound.
In the end of those ill fated meetings In don’t believe all the fast talking and fancy footwork magick tricks or taking advantage of hicks made any difference except to sort of kind of surprise the British who thought the ‘Bancor would preserve more of their pound sterling, and the Russians who would not get on board(beginning the cold war)and the weaker nations that acquiescence was there better get along.
As in the past the golden rule won the day. We had 2/3 of all the gold. I say we because I live here in the USA, so yeah I’m part of it.
That’s all fine and dandy, in the end that days dream of a international reserve currency ‘the bancor” were dashed. Once more for all it’s faults and obvious opportunity for the greed and corrupt nature of man to plunder was left in place, with the only diff being a new reserve currency. Duh Dollar!! If you will only look around you will see the result, the worlds last uni-polar empire in it’s death throes. Trying to hold ground it has no tittle to, writing checks and breaking necks. It will not be over for sometime, but it will be over.
The battle to pay attention to now is who will control this new muti-lateral, SDR system. In my opinion it has a chance to accomplish some good in the world before it man nature takes over and it corrupts itselfs.
Mr Escobar
I give you this time of mine because I suggest and encourage you to begin to look at the financial forces that rule this world and equate what they are doing with what is going on with the lower level geopolitical we see as a result of what they are trying to accomplish. For all it’s faults and the death and destruction that goes on there is no world trade without a system. I think they are trying to come up with a better one, not because they are nice, nope, they have to the old one is falling apart for it’s imbalance and about to take it all down with it. So there is that.
PTM