I thought that I had seen all this before, in the 1959 British film, ‘The Mouse That Roared’.
Shakespeare would have termed it, ‘Much Ado About Nothing’, as does Ruslan, and Ruslan must be getting it fairly right as back in the USeless of A, there’s talk of a Nobel Peace Prize for the Don, which I suppose matches him to his predecessor.
It is mortally boring how I must listen every single day to the TV and broadcasting outlets in latin america an endless lot of rubish peanuts on the KIM-Trump summit.
First they do not admit that Kim is a rational being and has proven able to play his cards.
Second the press never says that the neighbor China leaders havepreviously met Jong Un twice this year and naturally havetaught or instructed him one thing or two…
Third i´ve never heard anyone pundit whatsoever say that to denuclearize the Korean peninsula is forcibly… Towipe out and defuseFIRST the dozens of NUKES
the american troops hide in SouthKorean soil since 30 years now. And denuclearize means SECOND that Jong Un defuses the mere dozen bombs he has.
And fourth nobody said on thetube or on the radio that to negotiate in any conflict means to talk from a pósition of strenght.
Last of all that strength is currencty with Pyong Yang not seoul or washington. Simply because NK can accept heavy losses from an attack but Seoul – and Tokyo for that matter – cannot… and both are under immly Kim´s reach if push comes to shove.
Nobody talks about South Korea, but I sense the new thing in the equation is the genuine and popular drive to make peace and eventually heal Korea again coming from both sides of the border. The US is the pointless, self imposed, middle man and will be squeezed out by the dynamics of the equation. Yet again the US finds itself in a position, as in other parts of the world, where it can play the spoiler and disrupt and destroy, but it cannot offer a sane, sustainable policy to take the nations forward under US ‘stewardship’.
I thought the summit went about as well as one could hope. They weren’t going to reach a final agreement at this meeting; it is only the first step in a long process. It is true the U.S. is not “agreement capable”. However, this does not rule out an agreement. It just means the terms of any agreement need to be designed to be irreversible, so if the U.S. later abandons a treaty it cannot undo the terms, such as a removal of U.S. troops from Korea. If Trump is serious about removing these troops from Korea then I think an agreement is possible. This diplomacy is just beginning and it is too early to say what will eventually happen, but I thought the summit itself was a success.
Yes, Ruslan Ostashko is correct. A document signed by Washington is not worth the paper its written on, as native Americans can attest. This meeting between Trump and Kim was just a face saving tactic by Trump. He sent his fleet to the North Korean coast without too much planning, hoping for regime change. He did not get it. Worse, both South and North Korea began covert negotiations. He therefore meets Kim, where they agreed to do some more talking. Nothing of any importance was really signed. The point is that the US military is overstretched, and at the moment it has two hot spots, North Korea and Iran. It cannot handle both. Trump therefore decides to cool matters with North Korea, concentrating on Iran. However, I don’t advise him to attack Iran. He will get little political backing from the world, while military success would be highly doubtful
Unseen in the events of US vs NK is the deep fear the US military has of a war on the Peninsula.
They know it cannot be won by the US. Never mind that Seoul and a lot of SK will be destroyed.
The war they would instigate with misjudgment, mis-communication, passing a point of no return, just like the 1950 war began through misspoken words from the State Department, is a land war they would be forced to be a major part of. They might be able to severely damage the North with missiles and air power, but the North would be tearing apart the South at an incredible clip.
And China and Russia would be aiding NK.
So, to hold the Southern part of the Peninsula, a massive force of hundreds of thousands of US troops would have to be inserted into Korea.
This is terrifying, more than the few nukes Kim has on his shaky missiles (none of which would be launched if the US struck first. So, the only war would be a war the US would lose.
Imagine the fear and loathing in the Pentagon.
You can bluff with three carrier task forces but if the bluff is called or you err, you lose.
So, Trump came to save America’s ass. Kim has it on a long hook.
At some point the hook will be dislodged and a deal will occur.
The fear of nukes, the fear of a Korean Peninsula without US participation is nothing compared to the dread that the US military would be shown for what it is–a massive mob enforcer, a brute against the defenseless, but not a military that can win a war on land. And no one will fight against its navy, except on asymmetrical terms.
Imagine, a nation weaker by a factor of 8-10x than Libya has held off the Hegemon.
Weigh that as a general in the Pentagon. Kim looked the Beast in the eye and calmly shook its hand.
“Make me an offer, Donald.”
“We’ll be nice if you don’t threaten us,” Donald replied.
That’s the unseen, unheard message of the handshake.
It was role reversal. The mouse terrified the elephant.
Brilliant comment, Larchmonter. I agree, this is completely the case. I love what you wrote: “Make me an offer, Donald.” “We’ll be nice if you don’t threaten us,” Donald replied. Wonderful summation.
Ruslan Ostashko has completely missed all of the meaning of this event. It was a coming together of the balance of power in the region. The US holds practically no cards, and does not dare to bluff too much. North Korea is absolutely NOT a simple puppet of either China or Russia. Kim himself created the game changer with his nukes – this gave him leverage with both China and Russia, who understood why he had to do it, but still it made them both nervous, from fear of mishap.
More to the point, Kim faced down the US on sheer power. He developed enough to checkmate the US and also created the one bargaining chip that could be used for the ending of the war exercises, in the freeze for freeze. It has been a brilliant achievement.
The power now to get the US out of South Korea completely will come from the will and sheer dynamic energy of the two Koreas reuniting. This is a force that cannot be stopped by any country. Korea will become the ancient, whole country it always was before western imperialism fell into its anomalous few hundred years of temporary advantage over the so-called third world. That age is almost done.
Well I can’t blame Ostrashko for being very sceptical of the meet in Singapore — nowadays most of us are when the US signs a document agreeing to something.
But Ostrashko is correct in his assessment that the whole thing must be seen in the wider context of US-China rivalry.
Now, I don’t think China and Russia are pulling NK’s strings 100%. I think Kim, unlike his father and grandfather, is quite independent-minded to a certain extent. He was stubborn enough to the stage that PRC has had to agree to sanctions on him. He had studiously avoided visiting the Son of Heaven until recently — more to get reassurances about China’s security guarantees to NK rather than to get instructions; and to reassure China that there won’t be a 180 degree turn in NK-China relations now that he’s finally got a place at the main table. In a way NK and China are reassuring each other that the meeting with the real estate mogul won’t change the fundamentals of NK-China relations too much.
PRC faces the potential of losing a buffer state if the Western-educated Kim — although very unlikely — goes overboard in his relations with the US. But the potential is there. At the same time China is nervous about Kim’s nukes (usable or not) and must be glad to see the end of NK’s nuclear bombs.
Will the US loosen it’s noose around China’s neck? Unlikely. How far the SK-NK rapprochement goes is very much dependent on US plans for China in the Korean peninsula. And that means either NK becomes like SK and joins the Hegemon or, at the very least, becomes neutral in the event of a US-China punch-up. There’s a possibility that it may entice NK away from China’s orbit by offering economic assistance, either via SK or directly — and God knows, NK needs it — in the near future. But I think RF and China have read this; Russia has been quick to offer assistance to NK to build a railway network to integrate it into the OBOR. There’s thus a possibility of a happy outcome for NK in that in an effort to win its heart and mind, both sides of the Unipolar-Multipolar camps may come to offer development aid.
All the same, I’m happy that at least on the personal level Koreans have an opportunity to enjoy the fruits of friendship between their two (artificial) countries. They’ll be free from the Damocles’ sword that’s hanging over their heads, they’ll be more at ease, families can be reunited, they can come to terms with what happened between them 60+ years ago. And, yes, even if it sounds corny and cliched, they can hope for a better future.
Since the Americans are fakes then Bolton is a fake as he is an American. If Bolton is a fake he will most likely do a qaddaffi on Kim without remorse and in fact with joy. These Washington/New York crazies are right-wing thinkers. No social policy is acceptable to them. It is all ‘the strong survive at the expense of the old, weak and vulnerable’. People that “good” are despicable. Yet oddly, strangely and weirdly they are most respectable persons in their own world.
If anyone thinks that taking this line will result in anything but the greatest unhappiness and misfortune they are deeply, profoundly and grossly mistaken – nothing could be further from the truth. It is sad that such comments have to be made by the old and ill.
I must say: I agree with everything Ruslan said. Excellent analysis Ruslan. Also, he excellently defined all those arm-chair generals itching for confrontation.
I thought that I had seen all this before, in the 1959 British film, ‘The Mouse That Roared’.
Shakespeare would have termed it, ‘Much Ado About Nothing’, as does Ruslan, and Ruslan must be getting it fairly right as back in the USeless of A, there’s talk of a Nobel Peace Prize for the Don, which I suppose matches him to his predecessor.
Russia/china pulling the strings of Kim and understand how to manipulate a narcissist sociopath like trump .
who wins you ask?…well you admit the americans can not be trusted and Kim we assume understands or has been told of the example you sight…. Qaddafi.
so..sooner or later everyone will realize nothing has changed regarding kims weapons and americas trust.
both win for now….but sooner than later someone will ask what was the point of all this…
It is mortally boring how I must listen every single day to the TV and broadcasting outlets in latin america an endless lot of rubish peanuts on the KIM-Trump summit.
First they do not admit that Kim is a rational being and has proven able to play his cards.
Second the press never says that the neighbor China leaders havepreviously met Jong Un twice this year and naturally havetaught or instructed him one thing or two…
Third i´ve never heard anyone pundit whatsoever say that to denuclearize the Korean peninsula is forcibly… Towipe out and defuseFIRST the dozens of NUKES
the american troops hide in SouthKorean soil since 30 years now. And denuclearize means SECOND that Jong Un defuses the mere dozen bombs he has.
And fourth nobody said on thetube or on the radio that to negotiate in any conflict means to talk from a pósition of strenght.
Last of all that strength is currencty with Pyong Yang not seoul or washington. Simply because NK can accept heavy losses from an attack but Seoul – and Tokyo for that matter – cannot… and both are under immly Kim´s reach if push comes to shove.
Good points. Bottom line, however, is Trump and associates don’t give a shit how many people die in Japan or South Korea.
True, but they do care about American lives, or at the very least their own lives, hence North Korean missiles that can reach American soil.
Nobody talks about South Korea, but I sense the new thing in the equation is the genuine and popular drive to make peace and eventually heal Korea again coming from both sides of the border. The US is the pointless, self imposed, middle man and will be squeezed out by the dynamics of the equation. Yet again the US finds itself in a position, as in other parts of the world, where it can play the spoiler and disrupt and destroy, but it cannot offer a sane, sustainable policy to take the nations forward under US ‘stewardship’.
No need. SK is under US control.
I thought the summit went about as well as one could hope. They weren’t going to reach a final agreement at this meeting; it is only the first step in a long process. It is true the U.S. is not “agreement capable”. However, this does not rule out an agreement. It just means the terms of any agreement need to be designed to be irreversible, so if the U.S. later abandons a treaty it cannot undo the terms, such as a removal of U.S. troops from Korea. If Trump is serious about removing these troops from Korea then I think an agreement is possible. This diplomacy is just beginning and it is too early to say what will eventually happen, but I thought the summit itself was a success.
Yes, Ruslan Ostashko is correct. A document signed by Washington is not worth the paper its written on, as native Americans can attest. This meeting between Trump and Kim was just a face saving tactic by Trump. He sent his fleet to the North Korean coast without too much planning, hoping for regime change. He did not get it. Worse, both South and North Korea began covert negotiations. He therefore meets Kim, where they agreed to do some more talking. Nothing of any importance was really signed. The point is that the US military is overstretched, and at the moment it has two hot spots, North Korea and Iran. It cannot handle both. Trump therefore decides to cool matters with North Korea, concentrating on Iran. However, I don’t advise him to attack Iran. He will get little political backing from the world, while military success would be highly doubtful
Unseen in the events of US vs NK is the deep fear the US military has of a war on the Peninsula.
They know it cannot be won by the US. Never mind that Seoul and a lot of SK will be destroyed.
The war they would instigate with misjudgment, mis-communication, passing a point of no return, just like the 1950 war began through misspoken words from the State Department, is a land war they would be forced to be a major part of. They might be able to severely damage the North with missiles and air power, but the North would be tearing apart the South at an incredible clip.
And China and Russia would be aiding NK.
So, to hold the Southern part of the Peninsula, a massive force of hundreds of thousands of US troops would have to be inserted into Korea.
This is terrifying, more than the few nukes Kim has on his shaky missiles (none of which would be launched if the US struck first. So, the only war would be a war the US would lose.
Imagine the fear and loathing in the Pentagon.
You can bluff with three carrier task forces but if the bluff is called or you err, you lose.
So, Trump came to save America’s ass. Kim has it on a long hook.
At some point the hook will be dislodged and a deal will occur.
The fear of nukes, the fear of a Korean Peninsula without US participation is nothing compared to the dread that the US military would be shown for what it is–a massive mob enforcer, a brute against the defenseless, but not a military that can win a war on land. And no one will fight against its navy, except on asymmetrical terms.
Imagine, a nation weaker by a factor of 8-10x than Libya has held off the Hegemon.
Weigh that as a general in the Pentagon. Kim looked the Beast in the eye and calmly shook its hand.
“Make me an offer, Donald.”
“We’ll be nice if you don’t threaten us,” Donald replied.
That’s the unseen, unheard message of the handshake.
It was role reversal. The mouse terrified the elephant.
Brilliant comment, Larchmonter. I agree, this is completely the case. I love what you wrote: “Make me an offer, Donald.” “We’ll be nice if you don’t threaten us,” Donald replied. Wonderful summation.
Ruslan Ostashko has completely missed all of the meaning of this event. It was a coming together of the balance of power in the region. The US holds practically no cards, and does not dare to bluff too much. North Korea is absolutely NOT a simple puppet of either China or Russia. Kim himself created the game changer with his nukes – this gave him leverage with both China and Russia, who understood why he had to do it, but still it made them both nervous, from fear of mishap.
More to the point, Kim faced down the US on sheer power. He developed enough to checkmate the US and also created the one bargaining chip that could be used for the ending of the war exercises, in the freeze for freeze. It has been a brilliant achievement.
The power now to get the US out of South Korea completely will come from the will and sheer dynamic energy of the two Koreas reuniting. This is a force that cannot be stopped by any country. Korea will become the ancient, whole country it always was before western imperialism fell into its anomalous few hundred years of temporary advantage over the so-called third world. That age is almost done.
Well I can’t blame Ostrashko for being very sceptical of the meet in Singapore — nowadays most of us are when the US signs a document agreeing to something.
But Ostrashko is correct in his assessment that the whole thing must be seen in the wider context of US-China rivalry.
Now, I don’t think China and Russia are pulling NK’s strings 100%. I think Kim, unlike his father and grandfather, is quite independent-minded to a certain extent. He was stubborn enough to the stage that PRC has had to agree to sanctions on him. He had studiously avoided visiting the Son of Heaven until recently — more to get reassurances about China’s security guarantees to NK rather than to get instructions; and to reassure China that there won’t be a 180 degree turn in NK-China relations now that he’s finally got a place at the main table. In a way NK and China are reassuring each other that the meeting with the real estate mogul won’t change the fundamentals of NK-China relations too much.
PRC faces the potential of losing a buffer state if the Western-educated Kim — although very unlikely — goes overboard in his relations with the US. But the potential is there. At the same time China is nervous about Kim’s nukes (usable or not) and must be glad to see the end of NK’s nuclear bombs.
Will the US loosen it’s noose around China’s neck? Unlikely. How far the SK-NK rapprochement goes is very much dependent on US plans for China in the Korean peninsula. And that means either NK becomes like SK and joins the Hegemon or, at the very least, becomes neutral in the event of a US-China punch-up. There’s a possibility that it may entice NK away from China’s orbit by offering economic assistance, either via SK or directly — and God knows, NK needs it — in the near future. But I think RF and China have read this; Russia has been quick to offer assistance to NK to build a railway network to integrate it into the OBOR. There’s thus a possibility of a happy outcome for NK in that in an effort to win its heart and mind, both sides of the Unipolar-Multipolar camps may come to offer development aid.
All the same, I’m happy that at least on the personal level Koreans have an opportunity to enjoy the fruits of friendship between their two (artificial) countries. They’ll be free from the Damocles’ sword that’s hanging over their heads, they’ll be more at ease, families can be reunited, they can come to terms with what happened between them 60+ years ago. And, yes, even if it sounds corny and cliched, they can hope for a better future.
basil
Since the Americans are fakes then Bolton is a fake as he is an American. If Bolton is a fake he will most likely do a qaddaffi on Kim without remorse and in fact with joy. These Washington/New York crazies are right-wing thinkers. No social policy is acceptable to them. It is all ‘the strong survive at the expense of the old, weak and vulnerable’. People that “good” are despicable. Yet oddly, strangely and weirdly they are most respectable persons in their own world.
If anyone thinks that taking this line will result in anything but the greatest unhappiness and misfortune they are deeply, profoundly and grossly mistaken – nothing could be further from the truth. It is sad that such comments have to be made by the old and ill.
I must say: I agree with everything Ruslan said. Excellent analysis Ruslan. Also, he excellently defined all those arm-chair generals itching for confrontation.