Contents:
1) Main events in Latin America in 2016: US elections, Pink Tide Fights Back? (Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil) Peace in Colombian? Cuba: in from the Cold and OAS v CELAC in Haiti.
2) Recommended Latin American Sources.
3) Conclusion about Latin American prospects in the coming period.
1. The coming year:
Bernie Sanders v The Rest. Foreign policy is incredibly unimportant to US presidential elections but extremely important to the rest of the world. It is likely that President Sanders would reign in the deep state/ establishment/ neo-cons to at least some extent. This could impact TPP, ‘Plan Colombia (and the peace process there), normalization of relations with Cuba and the Drug War, the latter with huge ramifications for Mexico and across the region. President Bernie would represent a massive shift; the prospect of any other candidate is a grim continuation of the status quo.
A new period has begun for the three largest Pink Tide governments in Venezuela and Brazil, and now in opposition, Argentina (see previous LAsitreps below for details). The situation on the ground varies widely, but the Left is certainly vying to regain the initiative; the Right, dominant in each country up until the turn of the century, is not nearly as powerful as back then. However, Brazil is in turmoil, Argentina has a neo-liberal President and in Venezuela the neo-liberal opposition has a double majority in Parliament.
The demobilization of 1000s of paramilitaries controlled by Colombian oligarchs constitutes a huge shift of power away from the violent latifundia, whilst the gradual merger of the peaceful and violent opposition to the US-backed elite is extremely promising in the long-run. Peace in Colombia, after 68 years of conflict, has massive implications for the country and the whole region. For one, it would pretty much establish South America as a ‘nuclear-free zone of peace’, and key objective of UNASUR.
Socialist Cuba, incredibly, victorious against all odds. That a poor island nation has thumbed its nose at ‘The Great Satan’ from distance of 110 miles, whilst breaking records in education and health, and facilitating the 21st Pink Tide phenomenon through both its example and its humanitarian aid is absolutely outstanding. Not only did it survive the collapse of the USSR, it tightened its belt, bounced back and, now, has won. Is a roll-back possible? With a new US president? Like Iran, I doubt it; business is business:
The OAS in 1962 expelled Cuba for being ‘communist’. Cuba has now joined the regional organisation CELAC from which only the US / Canada are excluded. A key success of the Pink Tide, and one which promises to endure any change of power in individual countries, CELAC both represents and is a symptom of the very real challenge to US hegemony taking place in the region. The opening battle in the CELAC – OAS confrontation is playing out in Haiti in the dispute over the recent fraudulent election; both now have observers on the ground. Both have very different loyalties.
2. Sources I recommend following events across the LA region here:
• Telesur English (a real staple)*:
• Strategic Culture (especially Nil Nikandrov):
• Americas Program (high quality but few articles)
• Upsidedownside world (high quality but few articles)
• Venezuelanalysis (Venezuela centric, Chavista)
• Merco Press (Argentina centric, a bit right-wing)
• Zcommunications
*Watching the world through Telesur, as opposed to CNN espaNol, is like being in a different dimension. It really is a powerful achievement of the Bolivarian Revolution and the Pink Tide, and it’s here to stay. The others have been my favourites for many years and I highly recommend them (although not necessarily all individual pieces they publish).
3. Conclusion: Year 2016
There are no significant elections in LA this year. Furthermore, the region is all but devoid of real ‘heavy-weight leaders’. There is Morales but, ultimately, Bolivia is a poor country with a small population. Fidel is alive but old and not in power. Correa is stepping down. Cristina Kirchner is in opposition. Dilma is besieged and in her last term. Maduro has yet to prove his mettle. We may well see these leaders establish themselves, and others emerge, but gone are the days of Chavez, Lula, Nestor Kirchner mixing it up with President Fidel.
Never-the-less, institutions such as ALBA, UNASUR and CELAC live on, as do many people provided with healthcare, education and housing by the Pink Tide. So too does Telesur, a powerful weapon in the information war, that is watched by hundreds of millions of people who have directly benefited from Pink-Tide social-spending. LA is an extremely interesting front in the consolidating resistance to Western imperialism; social movements are continuing to effectively challenge the US-backed neo-liberal elite across the region. However, because 2016 is an election year in the US, and because the LA has few elections of its own this year, much depends on Bernie, and the Latino voters. See:
Previous LASITREPS:
3) December 2015
2) November 2015
1) October 2015
Jack,
“However, because 2016 is an election year in the US, and because the LA has few elections of its own this year, much depends on Bernie, and the Latino voters.”
Couldn’t leave it alone!
Just- What depends on “Bernie”? Bernie Sanders? Bernie, the pro-military financial complex politician? Sanders, who supports the ethnocide and dispersal of the Palestinian people? Cute little old ‘Bernie’ who fronts for a controlled phony electoral – Circus, where the Oligarchs win and the people lose? Bernie who voted for All the $appropriations for the US imperialist military? Bernie who supports the State of fascist Land-Thieves in Tel Aviv? And he supports that fascist state with many $Billions of American taxpayers’ money.
Oh yes, That ‘Bernie.’
[If Jack was referring to a Different ‘Bernie,” I apologize in advance. Maybe he was referring to Bernie O’Hara from Dublin???]
And the “Latino voters?” “Latino voters” means voters of Latin American origin who vote within the USA. Hmm! Which CIA offering should they waste their time on?
As for Cuba being “victorious” – that requires the (next generations of) Cuban people being included in the governing process of their country. The Aging semi ‘socialist’ leaders of Cuba have had some successes against American imperialism. They have survived, and prospered to a modest extent. However, what model of government and economic society will exist in Cuba after Fiddle, and Raul pass, and their local Gorbachev-Yeltsins, politely return the store to the Rothschilds and the other imperialist Oligarchs?
Win? Latin Americans remain poor and repressed, with many millions migrating to their cities, and to cities and farms in the USA.
And, if I have not rained on your parade enough this sunny Monday morning, (on the Peninsula), try this article (trouble in my Home State), on for size.
I wrote it before. “No Nukes is good Nukes!”
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/radioactive-water-leaks-groundwater-indian-point-article-1.2522670
Actually, this is good news. Now, the Japanese have company (in misery). They are not the only nation, where, as with the 6 Nuclear Plants at Fukushima, the Groundwater is being contaminated by killer doses of Radiation. And, just as in japan, the political leaders, say, ‘not to worry.’
For the Democratic Republics!
Got a better form of Government? Let us at the Saker know!
teranam13 re: Antonsen. Yes, Bernie is Blarney or Obama redux. To pin hopes on this man that he will make a difference in the USA is to argue that with the “correct” leadership, the social democrats of pre 1930 German could have made a difference. So how is Blarney going to vote on the new Pentagon budget? Like he always has?
Peter J.Antonsen. In terms of the prospects for emancipation and development in the Latin American region, what do you think will have the biggest impact this year?
Jack J.
“Peter J.Antonsen. In terms of the prospects for emancipation and development in the Latin American region, what do you think will have the biggest impact this year?”
What? A serious question? Help! Saker, Ban this guy!!!
What will impact emancipation & development in Latin America, — In just 1 year (this year)? And the year is 10% gone.
Hmm! What do you think?
In the next few years:
1. The trajectory of Cuba. Can their aged leaders transition to a younger leadership that can interact with the Cuban people, (include-internalize the people with their governments and their future), and possibly transition toward a Democratic Republic ——-
And here is the Key! Can these Cuban Marxist Lemonists transition better than the Russian Marxist Lemonists managed in 1990?
Can they (the Cuban Leaders), avoid returning their people to the tender loving mercies of the Zionist American Oligarchs’ IMF Banks, and all the rest that goes with it, such as unemployment, inequality, loss of National Sovereignty, Blood Sports, Prostitution, Gambling, & all other sorts of depravity?
*I have a published article on this topic, which I sent to the Saker to see what he thinks.
Looking at the rest of Latin America can be almost as depressing.
2. The Mexicans allow the USA to pick their President. Too many of their citizens, just want to Get Out. When I attended the U. of Mexico, hace mucho siglos, it was such a beautiful place. There remained a memory of the Mexican Revolutionary Struggle (1909-1919), which was strangled by the US (who assassinated their finest leaders, Zapata, and Villa).
In South America:
3. The big 3, (ABC), Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, are economically worse off, and in a downward economic spiral.
4. Revolutionary (competent), organizations are Non-existent. Progressive leadership from the top, such as Chavez in Venezuela, or Morales in Bolivia, are, either, dead, or trapped (limited in their options). Argentinian Jacobo Timmerman, (after being tortured by the US installed military regime), ran all the way to Occupied Palestine.
Sadly:
Nowhere is there a VISION. God, (er-Lenin lies in a Mausoleum). Simon Bolivar sits upon a horse at New York’s Central Park. He advised the formation of a United States of Latin America, in order to maximize the strength of the Nations of Latin America, so that they might ward off the attentions of the imperialist powers, (the most dangerous of which, Bolivar warned, was the United States).
Durruti, who spent some time in Latin America, and motivated everyone around him, died in Madrid.
José Marti, (who also rides a horse in Central Park, NY), and Pedro Albizu Campos, (who spent 20 years in an American Prison, where he was tortured), and the Puerto Rican Nationalists, who shot up the US Congress, (but failed to bring enough bullets), are no longer able to help.
Hope is in short supply.
Falta la gente de Playa Giron, y Michoacan, y Jayuya, y los de Coronel Camaano-de la Republica Dominicana, y los heroes del Castillo de Chapultepec.
Democratic Republics, Sovereign, defended by a conscious organized citizenry in Arms. Each free peoples control their national wealth. The Zionist Americans, and their puppet Oligarchs must be arrested, tried, and placed in Jail.
Aunque, Siempre hay Esperanza! La conocia.
PJA
Thank you Pete. That was a dashed-off crock our Saker should have screened. I have hoped to move to Ecuador for years and watched Correa rather closely. Today I read that Erdogan was there making a speech(what?), and some women protesting his treatment of the Kurds were brutalized by his thugs! what?
The NED and all their subcontractors are still operating in our poster countries, it has to be fear preventing kicking them out, the big swine have control of the press- thus effecting the election of Mardi in Argentina, the swine pull stunts like engineered toilet paper shortages; in short, the masses, while admitting to gratitude to the progressives, are easily swayed. Ain’t gonna be easy.
@ P.J.Antonsen
Your critisism of Bernie Sanders lovers is refreshing. I suspect him of being a Talmudist Khazari false flaging as a radical alternative just like Obama did, but even more so this time out of neccessity.
As for the ‘Cuban people [Not] being included in the governing process of their country’…
I recommend readin the Cuban constitution instead of the Media (where 9 conglomerates control 99,x% of All world media). In there you will find that the Cubans:
* vote for representatives to the national assembly
* vote for representatives to the municipality
and
* vote for representatives in ther “city block/village committees”.
The “city block/village committees” is the smallest organizing body of up to 6000 inhabitants (but averaging waaay less) and with a budget of their own.
The “city block/village committees” mean that the Cuban has the power over his everyday life in his own hands – one major reason to why the absolute vast majority of Cubans support the Revolution and are against Your ignorant influence over their lives.
It follows that in the country that is the Fist of Satan more so than even Britain or Israel, its citizens are who field its “armies” – total sum of institutions – are some of the most deceived and morally depraved in the world.
Adjust Your mouth accordingly for we are suffering the consequences of Your actions.
Dilma (Brazil) being made “uncomfortable” in her last term is an understatement.
There’s the summer Olimpics coming to there, right?
And just by sheer coincidence, this Zika has made a grand appearance, a formerly completely benign virus that produced, if anything at all, symptoms far far less severe than the common cold.
Read Jimstonefreelance for the gory details of the 2400 & counting astounding rash of newborns just these past few months born with microcephaly, & what is causing it
Not satisfied with the snail’s pace of the legal system where they’re trying to have her charged with something specious to get her impeached, they are trying to destroy the incredible cost & millions of hours of planning, prep, building & scheduling for this in one swoop.
Already several brainwashed pampered US athletes are saying they will not go this summer due to this ‘Zika’!
So the dark humor here is this could backfire immensely, with a kind of “reverse boycott” not due to something like 1980/1984, but another scheming plutocrat plan with unforeseen consequences.
Like they’ll really be missed, for sure.
zika virus and the olympics.suggest reading jon rappaport at nomorefakenews.com
Paul Metcalf. Great suggestion, pointing others to an expose of the hype that is the zika scare.
@ P.A. – How about a few words on how we get there? Inspirational rhetoric aside, a suggestion or two might provide validation? Battle lines must be drawn, are you ready for that?
The big question for me is not about leaders so much. What I’m wondering is, will the grassroots organizations in Venezuela, including the communal councils and communes but also a bunch of other folks, take the lead and build new power from below?
The ball is really in their court. The model for a while was turning into an electoral process led by the PSUV and its leadership, which had been worrying me for years. Now that leadership have pretty definitively failed, which is a problem but could be turned into a positive if the people step up.
Once again Haiti and Dominican Republic are casually dismissed as sideshows. Like back in the early 19th century Haiti was the main economic engine of France, Napoleon sent 40,000 men and planned to use the island as a springboard to attack North America and link up with the Lousiana.
Haiti even though it can be compared to the Afghanistan or Somalia of the America’s is now once again being used and abused by the current global imperial power by way of the Clintons other elements to use the incredible mineral resources to continue financing USA’s economy.
You don’t believe me?
Why are Hilary’s brother and Bill so heavily involved in the country?
Why did USA attempt to bring about a treaty with DR to station troops in the country?
Why is Martelly stepping down quietly after loudly claiming for months that he would not?
The “sideshow”will once again surprise us.
Has anybody thought the time is perfect for the NWO to run a “socialist” as presidential candidate?
What else could they fool the majority of US Americans with? Obama was a radical choice in a sense and must thus be by far outdone in “radicality” for the US voter to buy it.
On the right you perhaps have an equivalent in Trump whos staged role is meant to embody that of Mr. Private; an antithesis to the usual corrupt Mr. Public (Obama, etc.).
Remember how the media made Ron Paul invisible? The 9 conglomerates controling 99.x% of all media obviously don’t promote an enemy/independent. Is the media making Sanders invisible?
If not, then Sanders is NWO.
They aren’t making him “invisible” (they tried that and failed). Now they are trying to undermine and destroy him. And may succeed there. With Trump,they’ve tried from the start to destroy him (making Trump invisible was a “no-go” from the start). But so far,his supprters just don’t seem to care about the MSM plots.
You are so wrong in so many levels, my son. Seriously.
Everyone misses the ‘big picture’ about Venezuela. How could such an important US client state, and petro-powerhouse be allowed to go off the rails so completely, going back to 2002.
Because folks, the fix is in.
Venezuela has become a shit-hole by design, to prepare it for what comes next, and by popular assent: dollarization.
Think about it. Think about it some more. Think about how they all will voluntarily vote to be dollarized. And think about what it means that such a singular petro-power, then suddenly has its currency base, and what it trades in….totally in dollars. Screw the Chinese, who’ll have to debase that Yuan thru the basement….”give us that Bolivarian Dollar…one side has George Washington, the other Simon Bolivar.
There is a very important election in Brazil. The local elections for mayors, state deputy , that will happen in October, 2, 26 states, aprox.5000 cities. It’s big. The new legislation reduced the electoral period for 45 days to cut electoral costs and also corporation donation is now prohibited. The results of this election is very important and will be the base for coalitions on the left and right for next general election in 2018. PMDB has already announced that will have their own candidate for president in 2018. Members of the PMDB – including president of the congress – were caught tryiing to plot a coup d’etat together opposition party PSDB with all support from the media groups globo, veja, – same media group that were financed to supported military dictatorship and to defend foreign interests. You can check these media groups relationship with PSDB, FIFA scandal, mossack fonseca scandal.
The question needs to be asked,” if they were caught tryiing to plot a coup d’etat together with opposition party PSDB. Why are they allowed to compete in an election? Why are the leaders not in jail. And the parties not banned?” That would seem to be the legal results in most countries of the World.
Ask your question to Judges Sergio Moro and Gilmar Mendes.
You probably will find that some members of the federal police and federal prosecutors are probably compromised with the opposition and that is as old as when FHC was the president back in 1995 – 1998 1999 – 2003. when he sold almost the entire Brazil through privatization to foreign interest and to some local oligarchs. Weeks ago Senator Jose Serra -PSDB – wanted to vote a bill that would open doors more privatization. Serra aka “Serra Chevron”.