Dear friends,
First, a couple of recent headlines which grabbed my attention
- France ‘should send in commandos to Libya’
- British military officers to be sent to Libya
- Libya’s Late, Great Rights Record
- Another Shocking UN Cover Up About Libya
- FYI – Check out the UN Humans Right report on Libya
Now, let’s turn to what has been gnawing at me: I have to say that I am rather baffled by the very few comments I am getting about Libya and I imagine that some of you are possibly getting the impression that I am somehow supporting Gaddafi by publishing information which can be seen as advantageous for the government side.
Believe me, this is not my intention.
Frankly, I readily admit that I do not have enough personal knowledge of the situation in Libya to really side with either party to the conflict. What my post reflect is the fact that I am torn between two contradictory feelings:
On one hand, I have a general dislike for Gaddafi and the kind of regime he embodies. On the other hand, what is happening in Libya is setting off all my “internal indicators and warnings”; my “baloney detector” flashing bright red alarm lights telling me that something in all this stinks to high heaven. In particular, I find the parallels between what is happening today and the events which preceded the US/NATO invasion of Bosnia most worrisome.
Why are there so few comments on this topic? Are you guys upset at what you might perceive as my ambiguous position? Or do you find my concerns about the situation in Libya unwarranted?
Also – I am hearing more and more distressing news from Egypt. Bloggers have been arrested, decrees have banned strikes, demonstrations repressed and, if I am not mistaken, the situation on the border between Egypt and Gaza has not meaningfully changed. Finally, the butchery in Bahrain and Yemen appears to have crushed the opposition in a grandiose bloodbath which the so-called “international community” – apparently lead by Mr. Bernard Henri-Levi – does not mind one bit, on the contrary.
And now Syria is facing some major clashes. Here again, I have very mixed feelings. I have always intensely disliked the Assad regime, be it father or son. And I am sure that at least some top Syrian officials – possibly Assad himself – have assisted Israel in the murder of Imad Mugniyah and everybody know that may individuals kidnapped by the USA have been tortured in Syria on behalf of the US Empire. In my opinion Assad is as fake a ‘resister’ as can be. But does that mean that the anti-Assad forces in Syria are necessarily better? Or are they planing to put another, even more compliant, pro-Israeli US puppet in power?
I find this all most discouraging.
I am the only one here feeling this way?
The Saker
Mission creep was pretty much an inevitability once Gaddafi didn’t do what was expected of him and fall at the first hurdle like Ben Ali and Mubarak. Having got the UNSC resolution 1973 passed, the question raised itself: what if the rebels couldn’t defeat Gaddafi? Military action, ostensibly to ‘protect’ civilians in combat areas, was most unlikely to defeat the Libyan regime. So what then? It has to be escalation, or give up, and having made so much fuss, the belligerent big powers wouldn’t be able to back down.
UNSC resolution 1973 cannot even with the help of a bent lawyer be construed to endorse regime change, but that is what France, Britain and the USA are now demanding. But how? The rebels are a motley collection of ex-Gaddafi heavies, Islamists, regionalists and some democratic elements, and they are unable to defeat Gaddafi’s puny forces, and cannot seriously be considered a viable potential government. My guess is that what is hoped for is a palace coup within the Libyan state, tipping out Gaddafi, and the rebels will be told to cobble together a replacement government with them.
But what if Gaddafi fails to go? Will Britain, France and the USA go so far as to initiate mass air-raids on government-held territory in Libya; will they actually put troops on Libyan soil to defeat Gaddafi’s forces? Sure, Gaddafi’s forces would be easily defeated, but I can foresee an Iraq-style situation where the state machinery breaks down and a failed state is created.
The belligerent big powers are a prisoner of their own policies. They cannot climb down, they can only escalate the situation, with the real possibility of another statal breakdown on the agenda, a Somalia or Iraq just across the Mediterranean.
I am not surprised that what started as a ‘no-fly’ zone has rapidly escalated into overt calls for regime change with the risk of all-out war against Libya. Gaddafi is not Ben Ali or Mubarak, and I have not been at all surprised that he refuses to go. And what started as, at least in part, a democratic uprising against a repressive government has been coopted into an Anglo-Franco-US operation that had from the start an inherent dynamic towards a war, and the very probable outcome of turning Libya into a failed state with all that this implies.
It will be nice if some senior political figures recognise this, and I suppose it’s better late than never. But will they stop and think deeply before jumping in and endorsing these sort of adventures when they are mooted in the future?
Discouraging? Why? The previous, entirely Saudi-dominated state of affairs in the Arab world seemed positively carved in stone: THAT was discouraging. Here we have movement.
That’s inherently positive and ENcouraging.
Western intentions, in Libya and elsewhere are as corrupt as ever, but that has been a given for decades, so why fret about them?
I am reading your posts with much interest, and highly like your trying to be objective.
But I do know too little facts to make a contribution here. I listened to Michel Collon, of whom I had never heard. Thank you for that information too.
You told us some weeks ago you had to slow down a bit, but you are working harder than before!
Best wishes to your wife, and I wish her a good health.
@Robert:UNSC resolution 1973 cannot even with the help of a bent lawyer be construed to endorse regime change, but that is what France, Britain and the USA are now demanding
That is very true, but that makes my anger at Russia, China even worse as that kind of impossible “interpretation” of the “protect civilians” clause was totally predictable. How could Russia and China show so little self-respect, nevermind foresight, and let this resolution pass?!
The belligerent big powers are a prisoner of their own policies. They cannot climb down, they can only escalate the situation
Very true. That is the “flight forward” of the French expression “fuite en avant”.
@Guthman:Here we have movement.
I really hope that you are right, but I am getting more and more pessimistic.
@Jan Verheul:Best wishes to your wife, and I wish her a good health.
Thanks, my friend, she is doing great now and I love her even more :-)
Saker,
I’m very happy with the rate of progress in Egypt. Of course it can be better, but at this rate it will turn out very well.
The uprising in Yemen shows no signs of stopping. Saudi and the US are trying replace Saleh with a new and improved puppet, but that’s hardly surprising.
In both countries, the main point is that the people are unafraid and active!! so even a compliant stooge can’t get away with being Mubarak or Ali Saleh.
Libya is disheartening. I was praying for MQs fall in February and I’m disappointed that he is still there. I’m saddened that NATO intervention will bring more misery to Libyans, but I don’t think it will acrue any benefit to the empire. In fact, it will blow up in their face if they send ground troops. Sending in “trainers” I don’t think will turn the tide.
I do admit you were early to be suspicious about Libya and you were right.
Syria is complicated. I’m happy to see Assad overthrown. I have no doubt that the US and SA have their fingers in that pie, but I don’t think they can manipulate outcomes so easily anymore. Iran and HA are worried about Assad’s fall, but I think any Syrian government will need them as allies. Call me an opptimist but I think Assad’s fall could prove to be a blessing in disguise.
That said, I think he did a pretty good job standing up to the west from 2005 till today. That is his only saving grace, IMHO.
Saker,
The regime in Syria must fail. Kurds have suffered a lot and still are. I for one would be more than happy to see the regime dissolve and see yet another autonomous Kurdish region which will put another knot in turkey’s panties.
If turkey continues like this, it will be the next one in the line. Fethullah’s (the current AKP) police and Attaboy’s military have gotten way too trigger happy and just in this year over a dozen Kurdish children (CHILDREN: age 3 months to 8 years) have been killed by them. The situation is grim at best.
All in all, I do share your concern, but I am sick and tired of seeing my people suffer.
Z
Saker: …that makes my anger at Russia, China even worse…
Russia is probably the only country which is having all the benefits here. Sorry for being cinical but its true. The oil and gas prices stay hi, the mess in the Middle east and Africa makes the alternative gas supplyers for Europe look not relyble anymore wich rises gas demand and helps Russia to strengthen its position in Europe as major supplier. The Middle east as well keeps the States’ military and political resources strained so the russians have they hands untied to work out they relationships with their close neighbours and they seem to be doing pretty good right now. Im sure the Russians wouldn’t mind to have the States involved in yet another conflict say in Syria. Russia needs at least a decade more to be left alone so it can continue it’s recovery and the busyier its greatest enemy gets the better. And lets not forget the elections in Russia next year. The stakes are hi and the game has begun alredy. So the Putin Vs Medvedev intrigue might have just started with the 1973 resolution.
alibi
deepEye
has never been a civil war in Libya.the same for syria. nothing to do with bosnia at all and all to do with “the last days of the victim” (mainly, us., gb and allies)
serious mistake the attitude of china and russia [appeasement has never stopped the (were)wolves], or over-stretching strategy[guerrilla warfare, ground-war, skyrocketing budget deficit, sovietunion syndrome ]plus… the kiss of dragon.
for some light on Western “powers” real reasons, read this
http://www.globalresearch.ca/PrintArticle.php?articleId=24366
Saker,
Based on my own limited knowledge, for the most part I do agree with you and I share your concerns….And, I am happy to know your wife is doing much better and that you love her even more….:)