The Middle East Wars – Syria
Syrian SITREP October 10th, 2015 by John Rambo
It’s been an active few days to say the least. Russian cruise missiles. Syrian ground offensives. Media blitz. Rebel TOWs. Airspace incursions. The war in Syria has definitely been turned up a notch.
It seems just as Russia fired those cruise missiles from the Caspian the West fired back with a media propaganda campaign. “Missiles fell in Iran” “Shoddy Soviet-era technology” “Russian airstrike targets do not match the picture locations”. It was endless. Russia countered, and countered even harder still. [Source] The gloves came off. [Source] The media war is in full swing and Russia wasn’t taking guff from anyone.
The range, accuracy, and flight path of these cruise missiles displayed the physical reach of Russia’s military projection capability. To the US, to the Middle East, and the world.
One can’t help but wonder if the emirs of the GCC didn’t pause for a moment and realize that they too might face the wrong end of a US-style Tomahawk strike like those experienced by Saddam and Gaddafi but from the Russians. After all America has already set precedent for such action in the past, why should Russia not be allowed the same privilege? Russia can do what the US can do… and its starting to appear that Russia might even do it better. [Source]
Even more frightening is the question of whether the US is willing to risk engaging a high-tech Russia. Fighting third and fourth world armies like the Saddam’s deserting military or the Taliban is one thing, fighting an enemy capable of firing all manners of missiles from air, sea, and land and who seems to have perfected electronic warfare is a whole other matter altogether. [Source]
But the question remains, what does Russia gain? Can all this be just to maintain a simple logistics naval base? Don’t they have converted cargo ships that can do that now?
Russia seems to have a plan. Its exact parameters still remain unclear. The survival of the Assad regime of course, but to what extent. Air strikes and cruise missiles is one thing, but is Russia prepared to commit troops on the ground if things turn for the worse? So far only a small ground contingent has been assigned to protect the Russian assets inside Syria. Russian marines and paratroopers augmented with a handful of T-90 tanks and autonomous weapon systems such as mobile anti-air and artillery systems are sufficient to maintain security at the airbase in Latakia, surrounded by two Russian outposts immediately defending the base.
All this seems to be preparation for future negotiations. Russia is trying to change the facts on the ground for better cards in the eventual talks.
The Russian entry has certainly rippled through the international scene. Everyone is watching closely. Many praising Russia’s control of the situation. The Russian cruise missiles were more than missile muscle flexing but also to shore up Syrian troops about to go on the offensive. [Source]
The Syrian Arab Army headed a massive offensive to seize the initiative given by the Russian air strikes. Resistance by the opposition forces was fierce. Near Hama, around the town of Morick the battles were costly. SAA tanks seem to have confronted TOW-armed rebels who have managed to stall a rapid sweeping assault for now. Although the SAA gained some territory, the causalities were not expected to be this high so early into the offensive. It’s yet to be known if these US-made TOW missiles have been recently supplied or have been stowed away in the opposition’s inventory for such an occasion. In the suburbs of Damascus captured rebel positions reveal complex tunnel networks under the city, stalling operations against the rebels in the city. [Source]
All sides right now are pressing the advantage and pushing on in full attack mode. The attrition will peak in a week time. The real battles will start to show in a week or two when supplies begin to dwindle and causalities mount up and reserves need to be called up. For Assad these reserves might very well be the Iranian ground force (pure speculation of course).
Iran is supposed to provide some sort of game changer on the ground. What that may be exactly is yet to be seen. More airplanes? Increased IRGC forces? Tanks? Maybe a 10,000 man division? Tactical ballistic missile forces? Special upgrade kits? Whatever it is it’s meant to augment the Russian air force, the Hezbollah irregulars, and the Syrian military to complete a victory in Syria once and for all.
Iranian involvement right now seems precarious. Having a small number of advisers and elite forces in Syria is acceptable but deploying a division of 10,000 men might warrant some concern, especially to Saudi Arabia. Not to mention the logistical effort of deploying such a unit in an expeditionary force inside Syria. Iran is also engaged in a semi-proxy war with Saudi Arabia in Yemen and to a lesser extent Bahrain.
Right now the war in Yemen is draining Saudi Arabia’s morale. Saudi Arabia is disgustingly wealthy so financing military operations, even with the drop of oil prices on the global market, is a non-issue. Currently Saudi Arabia is one of the wealthiest (if not THE wealthiest) Arab nation and has sucked itself in a fight against Shia Houthis in the poorest nation in the Arab world, Yemen. There is some evidence that Iran has provided some material and financial support to the Houthis though not at the ludicrous levels the Saudis would have you believe.
The support was most likely in the form of heavy weapons like mortars, machine guns, light arms, munitions, hard US cash, things of that nature. Nothing that draws attention like MANPADS.
For Saudi Arabia to see large Iranian formations in Syria would trigger hysteria amongst the House of Saud. The type of hysteria that tugs on the coat of Uncle Sam. The type that Uncle Sam doesn’t need to hear right now.
Russia continues to pound all opposition positions. Mi-24 gunships in the hands of skilled Russian pilots have managed to inflict masses of causalities. The Mi-24 is a heavily armored attack helicopter capable of withstanding light arms fire [Source] and fly low in consistent attack runs [Source]. Russian signals intelligence units meticulously intercepts Islamist communications followed up by air strikes in an unrelenting wave of destruction. The aviation hardware that isn’t advertised by the Kremlin for good reason.
An Iranian Brig. General was killed by ISIL in Syria, part of the IRGC Quds unit deployed as special advisers to the Syrian military. Apparently a man with many years of combat experience in the defense of Iran during the Iran-Iraq war and respected figure in the IRGC [Source]
The US might step up more support for the Kurds, isolating Turkey even more. There is real talk about providing more support to the rebels. The US has several actions going right now which paint a blurring picture of what’s brewing in the Pentagon.
It’s a mess right now. Wars are waged on all fronts. Online, on the battlefield, in the media, through technology, through militaries….
Let’s take a look at what happened these few days alone and what paths this opens up:
Russia:
• Cruise missile strikes, air strikes, helicopter gunship attack runs. Russia is projecting its capabilities across a wide spectrum of military hardware and there might be even more yet to come. [Source]
• Russian signal intelligence is used to track opposition forces and follow up with air strikes. Cellphones, radio communication and other EM emissions are monitored [Source]
• More Russian naval ships will begin to enter the theater of war, including an Intelligence frigate [Source]
• Continuous destruction of opposition assets including 2 ISIL commanders and hundreds of militants [Source]
• Tajikistan has had an attack organized by a rogue Deputy Defense Minister who now hides in the mountains with a 150 men. These attacks have been considered ISIL-linked. [Source]
• A deployment of Hinds has been reported in Tajikistan, perhaps as part of an anti-ISIL campaign. [Source]
• Russian anti-terror police has killed three returning ISIS fighters from Syria in Chechnya. Three more have been captured earlier. Security domestically has been stepped up for sure. [Source]
• A counter media blitz against the Western narrative.
• It seems that the Russian air assets were ordered to show no mercy towards opposition units. Round-the-clock air assaults in the form of strike aircraft and gunship helicopters. Those fighting in Syria will die in Syria, accept no surrender. Which has also been the standing orders of the SAA for some time, especially towards Islamists.
• Just like the creation of two states in Georgia as a buffer, Russia may have similar designs to create a buffer state involving the Kurds in Turkey. Though I’d assume that would trigger red lines of its own in the Turkish military.
Syria:
• Undertook a major offensive following the one week of Russian aerial bombing and cruise missile attacks.
• The SAA achieved operational victories but losses are high for the initial days of the offensives.
• Increased numbers of Russian advisers have organized the SAA into a more coherent force. Unlike the US which uses English-speaking advisers and translators in a sloppy arrangement, Russian advisers are seen speaking fluent Arabic. [Source]
• As previously mentioned Syria has undergone two major restructuring efforts. First from its initial Soviet-style model to a hybrid military incorporating regular military units (such as armor, artillery, and military engineers) with irregular military forces (militias, Hezbollah guerrillas, etc.). [Source]
• The second restructuring effort shifted the focus of the military from offensives to placing garrisons in strongholds in all corners of the country. These stronghold forces are designed to withstand month-long sieges, especially the forces in the east surrounded by ISIL, and most importantly to preserve manpower. [Source]
• Although the newest restructuring plan allowed Assad to maintain control over large areas of the country without investing manpower in large offensives, it allowed pockets of resistance to remain unchallenged. Rebels in these pockets would commit to hit-and-run style attacks on Syrian military convoys at the rear of the SAA. It was easier to bottle up an opposing group then to try to wipe them out in an offensive.
• The National Defense Force, an organization designed to absorb popular militias into reservists, has become an essential fighting force [Source]
• Currently the Syrian military has to seize the initiative provided by the Russian Air Force and make significant gains, which is not easy against forces that have had literally years to build defensive tunnels and stockpile weapons and munition.
• Primary objectives is military victory in Hama and Idlib, freeing up forces for the next front against ISIL in the east and in Aleppo.
• Offensives are still ongoing.
Iran:
• Iranian involvement has been so far to provide weapons, materials, training, and intelligence to the regime.
• Two IRGC generals have already been killed in the Syrian conflict, one through an Israeli air strike much earlier in the conflict [Source] and one through an ISIL attack in the latest offensives. Hezbollah carried out the revenge for the first general against an IDF patrol. [Source] Something ISIL has yet to do.
• Rumors and innuendos about a massive Iranian ground offensive are abound. Iran, and particularly the IRGC, are no stranger to deception and this offensive will only be known when the rebels encounter it.
• Due to the need to maintain a low-profile both internationally and domestically it will most probably consist of a few elite IRGC battalions for special operations and high-risk missions.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other affiliates:
• Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab Coalition and GCC nations are plotting some form of retaliation against Russia for its involvement.
• The limited options available is to finance some sort of jihad and facilitate all necessary logistics to bring Islamist fighters onto Russian soil.
• Direct military confrontation against Russia is impossible unless the United States steps in.
• False flag operations pinned on Russia
GCC-Financed Rebel Forces (Army of Conquest, Et. Al.):
• It seems the rebels have more TOWs than previously estimated. SAA offensives have been stalled due to the heavy tank losses that occurred from the TOWs. [Source]
• Although some TOW attacks have been successful a lot show them falling short due to a lack of sufficient training. Rebels know how to use the TOW weapon system but seem to fire it too far out of range, fire it towards an obscured line of sight, or misalign the aim of the rocket. Regardless these weapons have been effective in creating a strong line of defense.
• TOW missile guidance relies on an unwinding wire to guide the missile to its target. This means the operator must continuously maintain line of sight with the target to properly guide the rocket to a tank. Should the wire get cut because of obstacles or because the missile was fired out of range than the guidance is lost.
• The TOW missiles used by the rebels come in two variants, the BGM-71F designed for top-down attack (generally the weaker part of the tank) and the BGM-71E designed to overcome explosive reactive armor with tandem charges. [Source] (secondary explosion after initial impact)
• These TOW missiles were given under specific orders to be filmed while in use. This can either be used to judge the effectiveness of these missiles, the effectiveness of the training provided, to maintain a count of outgoing TOWs and used TOWs to know how many are being stockpiled or simply as Western PR material. [Source]
• Qatar offers funding for any videos that show attacks on Syrian government forces; the majority of these videos are designed to attract more donations for the rebels.
• The rebels themselves have shifted their strategy a couple of times since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, being disorganized and managed by people relaxing in cozy hotels in Turkey or Dubai.
• The rebels first were a light infantry force which offered moderate resistance against the government. They quickly shifted to guerilla-style tactics such as roadside bombs, tunnel bombs under SAA field headquarters, low-level engagements and assassinations of Syrian party members including an attempt on Assad himself. [Source]
• Finally, thanks to the supplies provided by Western powers (such as heavy weapons) and the captured equipment from the Syrian military, the rebels have a somewhat similar hybrid force as the SAA did during 2013 mixing tanks and mobile weapon platforms, but considerably smaller and more dependent on asymmetrical means such as the media to shape the narrative.
Islamic State:
• The Islamic State has lost some significant military hardware thanks to Russian airstrikes such as tanks, command centers, and munitions depots.
• The Syrian Arab Air Force has managed to destroy 2 of the three jet fighters that ISIL had within its inventory of captured equipment.
• Many ISIL members are slowly retreating out of Syria and Iraq.
• ISIL previously deployed US-style tactics which was super-effective due to the suicidal nature of ISIL members. A small initial recon force would engage the enemy (almost always superior in number), occupying their attention while a larger rear force comes around and flanks in force. [Source]
• The capture of US Humvees and Iraqi equipment such as tanks and artillery, allowed ISIL to execute this tactic flawlessly. As if trained by the US themselves. Of course one can also chalk it up to the fact the majority of ISIL units seem to be led by ex-Iraqi military officers of the Saddam days (who follow a hybrid Islamist-Ba’athist philosophy). These are the same men who didn’t oppose the US invasion hoping the US would actually bring some economic stability to the sanctioned country under Saddam.
United States of America:
• US still committing air strikes inside Syria [Source]
• The US strategy with ISIL has been centered around something called “funneling”
• Funneling involves bombing ISIL only when it starts to encroach on “friendly” forces such as the Kurds or other opposition factions. Thousands of precision bombs were dropped to literally funnel ISIL towards the direction of Assad forces and away from US assets on the ground.
• In a sense, instead of “degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL,” it is an attempt to dictate their attack vectors with a heavy hand.
• It had some success as both the rebels and the Islamic State began to engage Assad forces on multiple fronts, stretching the already limited manpower.
• The US currently refuses to cooperate with Russia in providing its target list of ISIL positions. [Source]
• There is more talk about escalating the Ukrainian theater as punishment for Russian action in Syria. Some even comparing the escalation to that seen in Vietnam, gradually but with purpose. [Source]
• The $500 million rebel training program has been scrapped. [Source]
• There is real talk about upping the game in terms of supplying much more complex weapons to the rebels. [Source]
• A US Search and Rescue unit has been deployed on the edge of south eastern Turkey, just north of Syria. A unit such as that is deployed to recover downed pilots. It may be for Turkish jets or future US air operations in Syria and Iraq. [Source]
• The gamble in aiding the Kurds is the isolation of Turkey, but the benefit can be a more strengthen Kurdistan able to not only separate from Syria but potentially Iran. Iran currently fights a very low-level counter-insurgency war against a Kurdish secessionist group in the north east of the country [Source]
Israel:
• Israel warns that Assad still maintains stockpiles of chemical weapons. Perhaps true or a pretext for future operations against Syria [Source].
• The arrival of the Russian intelligence vessel may irk the Israelis. What are the chances of a modern day Russian USS Liberty? [Source]
• Israel has minor skirmishes from time to time in the Golan Heights. Usually though whenever anything happens, Israel takes out retribution on Syrian military forces instead of those responsible. [Source]
I would have liked to cover the Yemen, Bahrain, Libyan, and Iraqi conflicts but it seems Syria has enough going for it so it’ll have to come in tidbits in these Syrian SITREPs.
[Scott: Since last night, when this SITREP was written there was some positive development for Syria.
North East Latakia 09.10.2015
Some positive news re coming from Syria. The offensive of the Syrian army with air support of the Russian Federation to the North-East of Lattakia resulted in the liberation of the city of al-Bahsa in the Northern province of Hama.
Syrian troops liberated the small city of al-Bahsa in the Northern Hama province, said the head of the political Department of the Syrian army General Samir Suleiman. “The Syrian army confronted a well-trained, experienced fighters who fought in Afghanistan and Iraq. But, frightened by the Russian air force, they retreated from the Bakhsi”,— quotes “RIA Novosti” the words of Mr. Suleiman. He added that three days ago the Russian air force managed to strike at the arms depot of the militants. According to the General, it undermined their morale and the defense of the city. For more video, images and maps follow the link above. Use to translate.]
I recall two statements from roughly 10-12 years ago. The first (second chronologically) was Benedict XVI saying that Western Church teaching doesn’t condone preemptive war. The second ostensibly directed to the same moron: If you break it, you own it.
Maybe the Russian strategy is hard to recognize because it is so utterly simple. “Asia for the Asians” – how about that? The problems of Syria, Iraq, Central Asia, the South China Sea… are for Asians, and Asians only to solve. No one from distant continents far across the sea need try to mix in, and if they do they will get a dusty answer from everyone.
Syria SITREP Interesting report on tactics which given a drastic change in situation may become moot. The problem with maintaining siege position is to have adequate artillery to pin down opponent forces and effective means to make sallies to root them out. Remember how long getting the Ukies out of the Donbass airport took? Also it is very difficult to keep and defend long stretches of roads through desert areas—you really have to hold the key towns and then the province.
will ask my military guru to compare and contrast the MI 24 with the Apache .
Cruise missiles from the Caspian say: 1. “don’t ” f” with us on air. land or sea. 2. Saudi Arabia and Qatar: we know where you live, 3. and while we are at it , don’t mess with us in the Caspian or Caucasus either.
the MI 24 is very old but very effective also, the apache is more high tech which means mainly that their aiming systems, etc are more sophisticated, but the the MI 24 has much more simple maintenance and is much more rugged. The Russians already have a replacement for it (MI 28), but chose to use the MI 24 for some reason, anyway, its a very good attack helo, armored, carry a lot of ordenance and another difference is that is can also carry troops, the apache can’t. the MI 24 is up to the job, can hit anything on the ground without problems. I’m not sure to what level these particular ones might have been upgraded. The Russians used to used them a lot in Afghanistan so they have well established tactics for it.
The TOW is not a fire and forget missile, so the operator has to keep the track on the target until impact, which means that is vulnerable to enemy fire in the meantime and once fired, the enemy can see where it is. The TOW is very effective against Syrian tanks and armored vehicles, but if the Russians deploy the T-90 tanks (they have a number of them in their air base), the TOW can’t penetrate the armor of the T-90.
Just some points comparing the Mi-24 Hind and AH-64 Apache.
Hind (1972):
-ASSAULT Helicopter
-Has heavy armor, can withstand light arms fire from the ground
-Commits to ATTACK RUNS for its unguided munitions and auto-cannons
-Limited night operation capability
-Can transport infantry
-Not all-weather capable
-Closest Western counterpart is the combat-variant MH-60 Black Hawks
-Hind seems to be more tactical in nature, allowing it to deploy forces on the ground then assist those forces with attack runs. For special forces squads perhaps.
-Is just as fast as the Apache but isn’t as nimble having a much wider turning radius (most likely due to the extra weight from the armored bottom fuselage).
-Roughly 2300 in existence
Of course today Russia has the Ka-50 (a powerful beast with blades capable of withstanding strong mountain storms) and the Mi-28 (an Apache-like helicopter)
Apache (1986):
-ATTACK helicopter
-Very thin skin armor (Iraqi militiamen forced one down during the Iraq war: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/–_Q7yhg7fx0/U0MggW42GZI/AAAAAAAACXI/_VLQ00f1yh4/s1600/militiaapache.jpg )
-More advanced electronics (including night vision gear for night ops)
-Night and all-weather capable
-The Apache was designed as part of the AirLand battle doctrine, to carry 8-hellfires in groups of ~150 (so roughly 150×8 = 1200 hellfires) to be launched against a Soviet armored thrust (which would consist of 800 or more pieces of armor). Although the Apaches would sustain heavy causalities would buy time for forces to deploy.
-Upgraded Long Bow model (AH-64D) has a radar capable of tracking multiple targets and guiding munitions
-The Long Bow with its radar mounted on the top of the rotor allowed the Apache to remain hidden behind hills while still scanning the area with its radar.
-Roughly 1200 in existence
Good for a laugh.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQ55GdCUcAA_dWH.jpg
Lol!
Excellent find :)
Funny! Good drawing, too.
Katherine
Would like to know if the Saker has more info in regards to the news of a downed fighter jet by Turkey.
Should be very grateful to be spared the mindless bloody MSM “jargon” in the posts submitted here. Ergo: There is no such thing as a “regime” in Syria, OK? Assad is Syria’s democratically elected President, period. The term “regime” should be used exclusively against the enemy — e.g. the Anglo regime, the Saudi regime, the Zionazi regime, etc. Syria is ruled by its government, however the MSM may feel about that.
I understand your PoV Nussim (I know what your name means so I’ll refrain from writing the rest of it out;-) )
Somebody needs to send your memo to RT as well: RT doesn’t seem to understand that the term ‘regime’ is used as a pejorative to imply illegimacy and gov by force in the current MSM context. They should use the term “government” and not inadvertently collude with the trash corporate media’s propaganda terminology. Anytime the Western MSM want to delegitimize a government they use the term “regime”, yet when they refer to their allies or vassals they use the term “government”; E.g. The Western MSM uses the following terminology for Iran vs Saudi Arabia: Iranian “Regime” (even though democratically elected) vs Saudi “Government” (even though it’s a medieval monarchy where the public purse is the personal property of Sheikhs).
No mention of the USS Theodore Roosevelt pulling out?
…….As Russian warships rain down cruise missiles as part of its military strike in Syria, there’s now a glaring absence in the region: For the first time since 2007, the U.S. Navy has no aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf.
Military officials said Thursday that they’ve pulled the USS Theodore Roosevelt, which is home to about 5,000 service members and 65 combat planes, so that it can undergo maintenance. The ship officially exited the gulf around 11 p.m. ET. The temporary measure is also the result of mandatory budget cuts……
But losses are high? How many soldiers of the saa died since russian airstrikes started compared to the period before and can you quote offical sources with exact figures?
Thank you John Rambo.
An interesting point u raise “Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab Coalition and GCC nations are plotting some form of retaliation against Russia for its involvement.”.
Do u have some background information on this as the UAE seems to b rushing to c Putin in Sochi. Bander Bush didn’t get anywhere and was removed; so the Saudi’s seem to just want to throw more weapons at Syria. Thanks.
An op-ed in RT:
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/318202-msm-syria-propaganda-russia/
About countering the dangerous MSM narrative in Syria.
Dear John,
It looks like the Saudi’s also went to Sochi and met with Putin:
https://www.rt.com/news/318324-putin-saudi-goals-syria/
It is my conjecture, in looking at the disposition of the various combatants in Syria, that the first Russian strategic objective is to drive the offensive east along the Turkish border to meet up with the Kurds, and close off Turkish resupply to the Takfiris. I would further conjecture that the Russians behind the scenes have exacted concessions of greater autonomy for the Kurds from Syria, Iraq and Iran, and also set some limits for the Kurds to avoid further destabilization, perhaps with the bait of transit fees from an Iranian gas pipeline, because I also conjecture that the Russians have agreed to share the European gas market with Iran. There is a lot more to this operation than just chasing the Takfiris, before they migrate elsewhere.
@s.a.top
“But losses are high? How many soldiers of the saa died since russian airstrikes started compared to the period before and can you quote offical sources with exact figures?”
s.a.top, it’s nearly impossible to know how many casualties any side in a war is suffering during wartime. At times, even after decades, such info is not accurate, for a variety of reasons.
As far as I know, the Syrian government stopped publishing its casualty figures in 2013, if memory serves.
Obviously the takfiri bandid gangs exaggerate syrian losses and then their BS is picked up by the msm presstitutes, which generally cite the pompously named SOHR, a one man op, a ‘muslim brotherhood’ backer, based in England, of all places.
For example, one of the sources for casualties mentioned in the above sitrep is a lebanese source which cites…. SOHR.
I will add that syrian sources I follow have stated categorically that the syrian government losses reported by ‘sohr’ are ridiculously inflated.
It should be noted that though i’m certain Rambo is doing the best he can, he uses too many sources which are clearly biased against Syria.
One source he uses is the neocon Institute for the Study of War.
“The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a think tank founded in 2007 by Kimberly Kagan.”
Still re this ‘institute’ and its coverage of the war in Syria;
“Notable among these reports, Syria’s Political Opposition was authored by disgraced former Institute for the Study of War staff member Elizabeth O’Bagy.”
Buahahahahha
The neocons are the main architects of this fake “civil” war in Syria(and in the Ukraine).
I’d like to point out that lebanese media also is generally anti-Syria, anti-hezbollah and anti-Iran, and oftentimes funded by the iron age Gulf nihilists.
The ”Refugees” in Europe act like Disappointed Tourists Compilation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Q_XHkgScOSY
Thank you, Martin
I found a comment about the Syrian refugees in Europe. This is an explanation why the EU is so eager to accommodate these people.
Comment: “Those who emigrate are almost 100% anti-Assad, including both those who go west and those (big majority) that stay in refugee camps near borders. Those refugee camps are practically military bases and recruitment centers for anti-Assad militias. And most of those that now come to Europe aren’t directly coming from Syria but from those camps (probably got bored and want our free money in west). For all those in Syria on Assad territory there is really no way to get out (one side sea, other side countless militant groups), but all those that were against Assad already left, so that little territory that holds 40-50% population of Syria is almost totally pro-Assad.”
Syria: Battle for Daria rages as Syrian Army pushes forward . Video of the women fighters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXquXS2uCeE&feature=youtu.be
Thank you for your long comment and link, Scott.
Sorry that I didn’t yet read my emails for over a week.
I have 50 new ebooks about programming, each containing from 700 to 1500 pages.
Damn, life is too short. This way or that way …
rgds.
@ Scott:
> Syria: Battle for Daria rages as Syrian Army pushes forward . Video of the women fighters
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXquXS2uCeE&feature=youtu.be
OMG!
Unbelievable.
If there is God, PLEASE SAVE THEM!!!
I’m non-religiously *PRAYING* for these couragous women!!!!! God bless them please{.}
Martin.
Indicators there are jihadis definitely in the migrant stream – a Tv team (I think Hungarian) has collected many of the discarded phones of the ‘refugees’ and found videos and pics of training for missions:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe_acSWHzGc&feature=youtube_gdata_player
@LucaK
Good points.
The only Lebanese source I go to is al-Manar.
What your take on Ma’an News? It is a Palestinian site.
Yet I thought I detected a vague whiff of anti-Assadism a while back so I stopped checking it. Plenty of other sources anyway.
Now in Turkey they’ve suffered the deadliest bombing ever. At least 97 killed and over 200 injured in Ankara by suicide bombers at a Kurdish peace rally.
Could this be some sort of warning by Erdogan and the Turkish government aware of the possible scenarios as listed above in this sitrep?
Re American air strikes in Syria, the article you source (from a Chinese news site) is dated Sept. 20th, 2015; Russian air strikes commenced on Sept 30th —>for about one week after the Russian air intervention, no American or “coalition” strike was registered in Syria.
After finally returning to the negotiating table (with his tail between his legs), US Defense Sec. Ashton Carter (aka Fred Flintstone) has worked out “de-confliction” protocols with the Russian military: so now Western coalition forces have been ready to go back to their ‘symbolic’ air strikes against ISIL in Syria).
Sorry, please check this source:
http://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/0814_Inherent-Resolve
Press on the Syrian map and read the latest strikes.
Hi John,
BTW your SITREP was great. Very grateful for your efforts.
Re: western air strikes that website you provided is excellent, you’ll note that they have not published details for Sept or Oct (only up til Aug 31), we’ll have to wait till they publish the report for Sept and October.
Either way, the speed, focus, professionalism and efficiency of the Russian military machine in ramping up and absolutely hammering those Islamist terrorists is impressive (and with such a small number of planes). The world is noticing this as well the sour grapes and dishonesty of MSM
Dear John Rambo…what a fabulous sitrep…thank you so much….great reading, and I’ve sent it on.
+1000
Absolutely true.
And as often I shared it on my 2 twitter and 1 fb accounts.
Big thanks to John Rambo!
In the past I didn’t know much about Syria. The more worthwhile it is now to get such comprehensive data.
I do apologize for that source. I would use this:
http://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/0814_Inherent-Resolve
But you have to navigate by pressing on Syria (on the map), and then reading the bulletin. (Latest strikes Oct 4 2015). Also I’m sure because its a US website people here will automatically claim its fake.
As for Scotts update, it seems that TOS-1A artillery systems are being deployed.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQ4jJ04WEAAdz08.jpg
So far only one has been spotted.
This is an important development. The TOS-1 is a very short range rocket artillery weapon system. Where as most rocket artillery can be fired from 30-100 km (with tactical ballistic missiles starting at 300km +) the TOS-1A fires a short 1-6 km. Only a very small number were every built.
What makes the TOS-1 special is that it is the incendiary and thermobaric rockets. Thermobaric weaponry is excellent in clearing defenses, urban concrete buildings, and other fortifications. From http://warfare.be/db/catid/353/linkid/1582/title/tos-1-buratino-flamethrower/ :
“The thermobaric warhead is filled with a combustible liquid. The liquid is most likely filled with powdered tetranite. When the warhead explodes, the liquid is vaporized creating an aerosol cloud. When the cloud mixes with oxygen, it detonates, first creating a high temperature cloud of flame followed by a crushing overpressure. ”
So you can imagine the effectiveness in urban environments and in tunnel clearing.
I’ve read they were only found in Russian NBC units. I assume the heat generated from a thermobaric weapons is so intense it can be used to clean large areas of battle sites exposed to chemical or biological weapons (which explains the short range). However that’s purely speculation.
Usually they are deployed in batteries consisting of 3-6. However taking into consideration their purpose perhaps one is enough for this conflict. But this could also be the first of many more to come. After all the complete TOS-1A system including two loading vehicles.
I read (and can’t confirm) that Russian advisers were worried about the lack of artillery capabilities the Syrian Arab Army had and thus this could be a way to increase firepower projection.
thermobaric rockets. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2FGA3Z-oYM
Those points accusing the US of “funneling” ISIS towards Syrian government positions are new to me. Are there any links to support them?
“Success in warfare is gained by carefully accommodating ourselves to the enemy’s purpose”
-Sun Tzu, The Art of War
The closest I can find in terms of a source is this (unclassified Depart of Defense information report):
http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pg.-291-Pgs.-287-293-JW-v-DOD-and-State-14-812-DOD-Release-2015-04-10-final-version11.pdf
Page 5 of 7 (of this PDF), Paragraph C:
C. IF THE SITUATION UNRAVELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION WANT , IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH IS CONSIDERED THE STRATEGIC DEPTH OF THE SHIA EXPANSION (IRAQ AND IRAN).
It’s just inferring what the US strategy is trying to achieve. The fact they left ISIL assets intact in certain areas but not others indicate that they’re encouraging movement towards Assad forces (and away from the Kurds, Baghdad or allied opposition forces).
When ISIL got close to Kobani and Erbil and Baghdad the US bombed ISIL without mercy. Those areas are off limits. In Tikrit the US did nothing to help the Shia militias (and presumed Iranian forces) there. Same for Palmyra (under Assads control) and Quienetra where Hezbollah is fighting.
The complaining from the US and Saudi Arabia to stop bombing was in effect to stop undoing their years of work.
It’s either the US is funneling ISIL or the US military is so incompetent that with all its drones, satellites, and armadas of air assets it couldn’t do what Russia could do with 30 planes in a week.
Now unless you really hate America the second explanation isn’t feasible. So they must be funneling them in hopes of grinding them up against Assads battle lines.
Seems the death of the Iranian general was an automobile accident, he was travelling, not in combat.
Yeah his death was declared as a non-combat death but also indicated he was killed by a Takfiri terrorist as well (PressTV).
So either he got killed by ISIS in a non-combat situation or something else happened they won’t reveal. Perhaps a roadside bomb?
@Eimar
Hello,
I do not know the palestinian website you mentioned.
There used to be a lebanese newspaper, Al-Akhbar(??) or something similar(i don’t speak arabic) which had an English section and was pretty good.
They even had reporters going to the syrian frontlines.
But it appears they may have closed down.
There are several Syrian nationals with a command of the english language who have blogs, twitter accounts, fb pages.
I follow some of them.
There is also syrian media, such as sana.
Not perfect, but way better than to follow the msm presstitutes…
al-akhbar was very, very good. One of its best articles was on the Turkish damming of the Euphrates (2014) and the consequences for water supply to both Iraq and Syria.
Th article is archived and is worth reading to understand the many vectors of attack from Turkey.
It is no longer published in English but is still available in Arabic.
If Saker could use his Arabic-speaking contacts to establish a link with them, I think it would be a good thing for his blog.
Ps the issue of dams is huge – much bigger than has so far been attended to because of armed conflict.