Yesterday I posted a short SITREP about the Ukrainian offensive on Balakleia. And, sure enough, there are 72 comments on this already! Many of them show a total misunderstanding of the nature of the SMO (it was a mistake for me to post a map which, obviously, most people cannot make sense of!).
So all I propose to do today is to explain something really basic about the concept of defense (in reality defensive operations are much more complex!).
First, this how Hollywood and the mainstream media present defense: you stand and fight, and if the enemy overruns your defensive position, you lost.
The reality could not be further from this silly notion.
For one thing, the USA never fought a real war, nevermind a defensive one. As for the Europeans, they are used to the kind of terrain you would have in central Europe, i.e. a terrain with a lot of geographical and topological features which favor a dug in static defense. For example, I did my basic training in an electronic warfare unit which was mostly deployed in the Swiss mountains and I can tell you that a single mountain infantry company (in some extreme cases even a well prepared platoon!) can fully lock a narrow valley or a pass against an entire mechanized/armored battalion (especially if that mountain infantry is supported by well concealed – mountains are ideal for that – and powerful long range artillery!). Much of Europe is what is called “mixed terrain” that is to say a mix of fields, forests, small towns and villages, many rivers (often with steep banks and rapid currents), bigger and stronger regional towns, etc. etc. etc. In that terrain you are naturally inclined to make the best use of these features and hold on to good defensive positions. In fact, in this kind of terrain it is often impossible to deploy a full mechanized/tank brigade or division (they are too big!) and you are simply forced to fight mostly infantry battles with smaller subunits.
The Ukraine is totally different. The eastern Ukraine, the Donbass, has a lot of small towns, and this is why the Ukrainians dug in and hold towns like Avdeevka. However, once you leave that more heavily populated line of towns and villages, you mostly have open steppe with a few rivers and scattered forests, many of them pretty small. This is why only small Ukronazi units can hide in these small forests, their bigger units mostly hide inside towns and cities, basically using the local civilians as “human shields” and since these Nazis hate the local “separs” anyway – they have no illusions about the real sympathies of most Ukrainians in the south and east – they don’t care at all if scores of civilians die in Russian strikes! In fact, in a recent video Gonzalo Lira, who is currently in Kharkov, stated that since most of the anti-Russian locals are under no illusion about the inevitable outcome, they have long left Kharkov, hence the SBU’s “hunt” for “separs” and other “pigdogs” and “biomaterial” amongst the remaining population. Yet another reason for the Russian to do everything humanly possible to avoid civilian casualties!
So in the case of warfare in the Ukraine, I think that it is helpful to think of it as “a land version of a naval battle” which centers not on the control of this or that wave, but on destroying the enemy forces while not getting destroyed yourself.
The next thing which I need to bring up is force concentrations. The war in the Ukraine is more similar to soccer in which attackers and defenders fight each other all over the field than to US football in which there is a clear line of scrimmage and where everything is about “conquering” more terrain or advancing downfield. This means that there are always temporarily unoccupied “grey zones” (think of them as parts of the soccer field which happen to be empty but which could quickly become a “combat area” if a pass is made there and two players will fight each other for control of the ball).
Just these two facts very strongly suggest that a mobile defense is the way to go on such terrain. These are generalizations, of course, but by and large they apply.
Next, when you have enough manpower, you normally would organize your defense into two, more rarely three, defensive echelons so if the enemy breaks through the first line, he is faced with a second line of defense and his flanks are potentially exposed to envelopment from all sides. And just to make sure that your defenses hold, it is recommended to have a reserve force behind the 2nd line of defense ready to “plug” any “holes” and/or to be used in a counter-attack (and if things go well, this reserve for can be used as a maneuver group to counter-attack). With a few crucial exceptions, this is not the case in the Ukraine, especially not for the Russian forces who are roughly at a 1:3 numerical disadvantage. This 1:3 figure is misleading, because it ignores the kind of force ratios which can be achieved locally.
Conversely, the Russians have an advantage in 1) firepower 2) maneuverability (they can move under the protection of Russian airpower and artillery, which the Ukrainians cannot) 3) logistics 4) reach (the Russians can strike even in the far western Ukraine 5) C4ISR 6) morale and 7) training.
There is another rule of thumb which should not be taken as dogma, but which is still helpful to keep in mind: a successful attack often requires a 3:1 advantage for the attacking side. This ratio can go up to 6:1 and even higher in strongly built cities. Since the Russians already have an overall 1:3 DIS-advantage in manpower, it is quite possible that in specific segments of the front, that disadvantage might locally peak at even much worse ratios, yet another argument for the Russians to first grind down Ukronazi forces, if needed by conceding terrain, before engaging in any counter-attack/counter-offensive. And this is why
All these Russian advantages all dictate a flexible, mobile, defensive strategy to counter Ukrainian attacks.
In other words, it would be absolutely INSANE for Russians to try to hold a static defensive line at all costs just to prevent the Ukronazis to claim yet another “immense victory”. So, keeping this in mind, let’s revisit the Ukrainian “counter-offensives”, bullet style.
- These supposed “counter-offensives” were announced weeks in advance (which the Russians noticed)
- Then the Ukrainians began by sustained artillery strikes to weaken the Russian defenses (and, thereby, indicate again to the Russians where they planned to attack).
- Then the Ukrainians concentrated large forces (which the Russians saw, of course) and then threw them all into a (relatively) mass assault on what they believed were the weakest spots in the Russian defenses.
This is what happened north of Kherson and this is what is happening just north of Balakleia now. And it will happen again on other parts of the immense frontline. And, each time, the Russians will resist if/when possible, but they will quickly concede terrain and fall back if pressed hard, not only to save Russian lives (why waste them for a few trenches or buildings??) and to “pull in” the Ukrainians into a network of mobile defenses.
So how does a mobile defense work?
Basically, it uses the Russian advantages (firepower, maneuverability, logistics, reach, C3ISR, morale and training) to save as many Russian lives as possible while killing as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible. Why? Because while terrain can always be re-conquered, dead soldiers cannot be resurrected.
So let me repeat this again: the Russians retreating before a determined Ukrainian attack is not the exception in this war, it is the rule. So we should EXPECT the Russians to do that every time the Ukrainians launch a mass assault and sends entire battalions into the Russian meat grinder.
Some have suggested that this is bad tactic since it gives Kiev a good PSYOP/PR opportunity. To this I will reply two things:
- Kiev does not need anything anchored in reality to declare “heroic victories”, they can literally take a photo in the “grey zone”, then quickly run away and present that as a huge victory (they did just that a few days ago)
- Russian commanders will not sacrifice Russian soldiers for a short lived PR victory. That would be both immoral and totally self-defeating.
Think of the Russian advantages for a second (again: firepower, maneuverability, logistics, reach, C3ISR, morale and training) and realize that they are all dependent on the Russian ability to fight against the Ukronazis with lower manpower which, in turn, should suggest to you that the single most precious element of the Russian warfighting machine is the Russian soldier: if the Russians tried to emulate Ukrainian “tactics” (i.e., throwing as much meat in the meatgrinder as available) they would quickly run out of the required manpower which, in turn, would create both military and political problems for the Kremlin.
And now, a flashback of sorts.
Remember when before the Russian SMO many observers including myself said that Russia would not invade the Ukraine simply because the Russians did not have the kind of numbers needed to invade the Ukraine? Well, this was true then and this is STILL true!
The SMO is not a regular combined arms operation and the Russians STILL do not have the kind of manpower to “occupy the Ukraine”. However, what the Russians did is the following:
- First, they gave the US/NATO (not the clowns in Kiev) an ultimatum which they knew the West would reject.
- Next, they basically destroyed the Ukrainian military as a coherent whole and broke it up into smaller, uncoordinated forces. Oh sure, after a week or so, the Ukrainians still had a few aircraft left, plenty of subunits (brigades and below), some air defenses, etc. but what they lost is the ability to use all these resources as part of a single plan!
- Then the Russians began slowly and methodically grinding down the huge Ukrainian force in the Donbass (that is the force whose attack the Russians preempted).
- They pushed hard along the coast creating a southern front which the Ukrainians had to protect, tying down Ukrainian forces (which are still terrified by a possible Russian land and amphibious assault towards Nikolaev and Odessa).
- And now they are basically waiting for the Ukrainians to come to them instead of going after the Ukrainians. Oh sure, when possible, the Russians will push forward, but they will concede terrain if/when needed.
Which leaves one last parameter: time.
Banderastan is a bloody mess, a failed state, a country 404 which is turning into a horror show run by a mix of local Nazis and US Neocons (what an ugly pair these two make!). Western governments, ALL OF THEM, are in really bad shape, all the Western economies have gone over the edge and are now falling into a recession and even into a fullscale de-industrialization. The biggest Western power, the USA, is run by a brain-dead old man, a former call-girl and with a Neocon ruling class which is absolutely terrified of the upcoming elections.
In sharp contrast, the Russian economy’s contraction will be in the 2% range by the end of the year, Putin is as popular as ever, as is Mishustin, the vast majority of Russians fully support the SMO and the Russian economy (a real economy, not a FIRE based one!) is flush with money and has the support of most of the planet.
So whose side is time on? I think that the answer is obvious. So the full list of Russian advantages should also include: firepower, maneuverability, logistics, reach, C3ISR, morale, training and time.
[Sidebar: right now there is still plenty of forest and foliage in the Ukraine, but with the winter coming, this “green” cover will become very thin, making it even harder to hide for the Ukrainian forces! That is also one more reason why the Russians are now mostly waiting]
Remember how “Ze” spoke of a “million soldiers army”? Well, that is nonsense, of course, but it shows one thing:
“Ze” feels that his biggest advantage is to thrown tens and even hundreds of thousands of soldiers in suicidal attacks. As for the West, it poured so much money, manpower and hardware into the country 404 that many Western leaders now complain that their countries have now compromised their own reserves of weapon systems. The US alone is spending 228 million dollars PER DAY on the Ukrainian fiasco. In sharp contrast, Putin is now openly saying that the SMO has been “beneficial” for Russia!
Apparently, “Ze” and his Neocon masters want to try to “drown the Russian military in Ukrainian blood“. If you sincerely believe that this is a winning strategy, please contact me as I have some super bridges to sell you for very cheap prices :-)
Having said all that, if the next time the Russians retreat for a few kilometers you want to either freak out and declare that “all is lost” or proclaim with great gravitas that “Russia is losing the war”, by all means, feel free to do so. I will just ignore these claims simply because, frankly, I am sick and tired of repeating the same truisms over and over and over again, especially when plenty of “commentators” don’t even bother reading what I wrote, they just want to flood the comments section with their talking points!
If you rather trust Girkin-Strelkov or Arestovich that is fine by me as long as you don’t have to parrot their nonsense in the comments section which I consider as “deliberate pollution of the comments section”. That will get you banned and, once we have the “comments for signed-up commentators only” thing ready, I will simply remove you from the approved list.
Anyway, that is all I had to say for right now. I hope that the above has been helpful (though I am under no illusions: as I said, trolls don’t even bother reading what I write, they just need to populate the comments section with their slogans).
Andrei
Great article. This is like a description of people playing Draughts (Checkers as it known in the US) against people who are playing Chess. The outcome is a forgone conclusion, baring a dumb move with the Queen.
I know Scott Ritter is not very popular on this platform. However I think the interview he has organized with the Commander of the Rostov battalion/brigade Alexander Khodakovsky (sorry if the rank is not correct) about the whole saga of Ukraine turning Nazi and how they (“Russians”) are approaching the SMO is absolutely a MUST to watch. Scott asks the correct dumb questions and the commander explains in a spectacular clarity … it is not Ukrainians they fight but they will & must in order to set this end of the world in the correct position of the current geopolitical struggle. Nato and Pentagon seem to be in a true denial what Russia will & will not accept – and also how “Russians” will – and are – addressing this issue …. I follow this it very closely but the statements of Alexander Khodakovsky has beat me to the punch in every question Scott has asked – a must to watch I think …. and spread around the folks who are oblivious what’s going on – the depth of his understanding who or what is the evil the fight is astounding!
In terms of how the war in Ukraine is fought this is a spectacular lesson to heed & listen to (Thanks for not blacklisting me)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOl7Yy7ljwo
I fully understand what was written and article is well argued and logically consistent. Still, time factor is really of essence. Does that cut only one way? A fact Russians politically obviously can’t mobilize substantially larger army, does have downsides. Ukraine can still mobilise a lot of cannon fodder and unfortunately hurt a lot of Donbass civilians. It could go on for years. That is not good for anyone. Of course, Ukros may unexpectedly disintegrate.
As for Western support, problem is: (a) European poodles might be so insane, they might continue to pour support even if it bankrupts them; (b) USA is getting relatively stronger in this crisis, not weaker (on expense of Europe). Defense industry is flush with orders.
I believe there’s another benefit to the current Russian approach of allowing the Western arms to get delivered, and promply used/destroyed afterwards. By depleting the arms stockpiles, the likelihood of any further escalations in conflict are getting significantly reduced, whilst in parallel the soaring energy costs and mass industry bailouts will make the governments think hard how to fund any replenishment of those stockpiles… Except the US of course – the MIC there will ensure there’s plenty of money.
Sporadically, over the decades, I’ve delved a bit into material about martial arts methods, and the major principle of many of them is when the opponent tries to hit you then get out of the way — perhaps helping his movements and directed energy to where it does not damage, and then maybe hitting him or throwing him to the ground if the the opportunity arises. Overall, though, the objective is to wear the opponent out and not get damaged oneself. Sounds to me, and by what you said, that the Russians are masters at that sort of thinking.
Following the SMO from the beginning I noticed a huge difference between how the RF is being lead (with the local commanders leading the attack themselves) and how the UAF (trained according to NATO standards) is being lead (with the commanders stayed safe in the back – who knows, with a weapon in their hands pointing at their own soldiers – ) while the soldiers are being sent forward into the rough with the foreknowledge that they must keep on advancing, otherwise they get a bullet from their commanders.
So there exists a mind-boggling difference between the conception and implementation of leadership on the RF side the starky contrasts with the ‘shock and awe’ manner of ‘leadership’ that is being shown on the UAF/NATO side (which has the rationale of saving firstly the lives of the commanders at all costs). Recently the UAF changed its leadership from NATO-style back to the Soviet-style, because the morale within the UAF is has reached inhumane lows.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
Russian commanders are up front because their command and control tactics are dated. They use Hub and Spoke or even WW1 Creeping Barrage artillery tactics which need a general officer nearby rather than network centric Shoot and Scoot where anyone with a connection can call in fire from the nearest gun. Russia has enough artillery and senior officers to take the large losses involved but it is not good for morale and burns up ammunition supplies.
What is Hub & Spoke artillery tactics? Thanks in advance.
The guns are postioned as if at the end of the spokes of a wheel or usually half a wheel. At the hub is the senior officer with a fire plan for the day. Further out are artillery spotters, human or drone, looking for the scheduled targets. They report to the hub which decides on the target value and orders a gun to fire. The formation is static and best for static targets.
there seems to be a lot of commentary on various telegram channels today 8 Sept re Balakleya….that for a week AFU has been steadily building up supplies armaments for their big move of kilometres with experienced troops to attempt to encircle Balakleya in fact managing to semi circle surround it. The impression is that only very very determined efforts by outnumbered Russ forces managed to prevent full encirclement. Commentary is that there was insufficient intel or not enacted upon for preventative and subsequently immediate action to respond to assist the outnumbered Russian forces .
Any clarity would be much appreciated .
“The main object of operations should not be the territory, but the enemy’s army.”Helmuth von Möltke
There is a video on line showing supposedly the Ukrainian flag over the administration building in Balakleya now i don’t know is it true but the capture of Balakleya would be a serious success especially propaganda wise that could protract this for battle to the coming months.
I hope i am wrong but seems that this offensive unlike the Kherson one is being executed better but it can also do more damage.
Nice job my friend
A very clear and concise view of how this war is progressing – Lot of people are thinking that this will be like a hollywood movie but they seem to forget that Russia is fighting World War 4 now against NATO’s combined forces and it’s utterly decimating them – Also this war is not being fought for only Russia but for all free people around this world who are against imperialism and colonialism and that’s an generational war that takes time
It is a shame you had to spend that much time explaining.
I have simply been paying attention and it is obvious to me what the Russians are doing.
These offensives draw the Ukrainians out of the buildings and trenches so the artillary can do the work.
Is actually brilliant.
I would not have, or would do, anything different,
Time is more than on Russia’s side. To hurry would loose some things working in their favor.
On the other hand, these “offensives” also seem to be acts of desperation.
And, after they fail I suspect there won’t be much between Russia and the river.
After half the population of Ukraine is gone, the big multi-nationals buying up western Ukraine farmland will have it all to themselves.
Greetings from north Texas.
FWIW, and it impinges directly, albeit subtly, on current operations in 404, there appear to be authority “issues” at the top of US DOD:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/to-support-and-defend-principles-of-civilian-control-and-best-practices-of-civil-military-relations/
That the luminary signatories would chose WOTR as publisher is curious. Their statement — warning really, but to whom, civ or mil, and why, in preparation for what? — shows disorder, actual and potential, in the heart of operations against Russia from 404.
My thought, in light of these luminaries’ publication, and with respect to operations in 404, is that a lawless administration, which Americans have, is one in which authority cannot be found, and in consequence, one which is in train of murdering itself, so to speak. When everything is relative, nature herself steps in to reestablish order.
Contrasting Russian loyalty to law and good order against combined West-NeoCon-Fascist demands for rules-based order — i.e. lawlessness — is a powerful argument. That luminaries such as signed the article in WOTR fear for good order inside their legacies reveals how powerful the argument for law actually is. I am glad Putin, Lavrov, Zakharova and the other stewards of Mother Russia use it often. Good order is the topic of the day, on the battlefield and off.
I left a comment on South front before seeing your post, that the Russians will pull back and put the Ukronazis in the meat grinder. They didn’t get where they are for nothing.
The Military Summary channel on YT has been predicting an attack in the Izyum area for some weeks now. Recognizing the Allies are not overstocked with troops, one would have to presume the Ukies were encouraged to attack for tactical reasons, there is incompetence running the show, or being short staffed is also a bigger issue than thought.
Indeed, the YT guy of no experience noticed it. I wonder what will be the impact of this UA blitz, with no air support, on RU people moral. Business as usual? And Mr Putin with his entourage playing military games somewhere in Siberia. But strategists here will again explain us this is not FUBAR, just another naval-like battle.
My problem with your story is that every time ukranians attack and russians wisely retreat and puah back the russians loose a few soldiers and their blood is too precious for that. What i like to see the russians do is to use more airforce like tenfold to scout and track and discover military targets and take them out. The stupid shelling of the NPP and civillian population has to stop. And nothing military should be allowed to exist in the rear of the ukraine army. They should have destroyed every military site by now. Ofcourse this is my opinion and who am i?
The western MSM propaganda parallels the German press after the Battle of Stalingrad. The presstitutes make much out of local battles but the Russians continue to push farther west and grind down the AFU.
Just like the Wehrmacht in 1944 – eventually the front will reach a critical mass and the entire AFU will collapse. If not for the propping up by NATO – Ukraine would have surrendered long ago.
Thank you so much for this explanation, as a layman supporting the SMO it does help to understand exactly what is going on.
Thank you again
Add to all this that Russia is only using 10-15% of its total power, and has exponentially more people, firepower and ammunition than ukrops will ever have, with or without NATO help. So anyone who thinks Russia will lose all it has gained in ukraine, and pull an Afghanistan 2021 tail tuck ‘n run, are sorely mistaken. NATO has no idea about Russian tactics and plans, and remains ignorant of the massive arsenals Russia has at its disposal. If Russians decided on this SMO, they decided to win it. All current losses of a handful of towns and villages are temporary. Look at the current crop of imbeciles running the EU and US into the ground. These people are sick, and do not inspire confidence.
Hi Andrei.
Appreciate the article. Well written and explained.
Thank you good sir. Victory to Russia.
I am a journalist and media analyst but I also do voiceovers for SouthFront, as I did last night. I like SF — BUT I don’t always agree with it. Still, it is an alternative voice and since I am a broadcast professional I seek to redeem my long history with the MSM by contributing my efforts to SF. Last night’s VO was about the Kharkov region and UAF “successes” with some criticism of Russian “command”, insinuating the Russians had had a “tactical defeat” which could become a “strategic” one! I thought this was nonsense — and today I read Andre’s analysis, which explains exactly why. Most people do not understand mobility warfare and how it works . That includes the Pentagon, even the Marine Corps, who teach John Boyd’s concepts of maneuvre combat and holistic warfare — apparently without understanding it. Putin certainly does understand it — as I explain in “The Tau of Vladimir Putin” which has been published on various websites including my own on Substack. Putin’s SMO is a revolutionary concept in modern warfare, partly because it is constructed as part of a larger strategy, assuming what amounts to WWIII. The SMO is a battle: the larger war is elsewhere–economic, social, cultural, moral. As the Ukraine gradually disintegrates, so too does the Empire of Lies. Of course, the US is doing well in the short term.That giant sucking sound you hear is money being sucked out of the economies of its vassal states, to keep the imperial aristos happy. But what happens when the vassal states collapse?
Hi Julian
I love your voice-overs, especially after you added that clip continental accent! Thank you for all your work!
Excellent Summary, Andrei! Thank you. The Saker at his best, analysis I have missed
After the SMO is concluded and the Ukrainian Nazis are either destroyed or have made serious concessions, how will the Western/Neo-Con media memory hole the conflict to free Ukraine?
I’ve noticed that even the Wall Street Journal is producing shorter and fewer Ukraine propaganda pieces. As of the 8th of September 2022 both the Clinton News Network and Faux News aren’t talking much about the allegedly “glorious Ukrainian offensive”.
From Rybar:
The situation in the Izyum direction
by the end of September 8, 2022
▪️By the evening of the third day of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkov region, Russian units left Balakleya. Soldiers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the National Guard of the organized left the city through a corridor on the eastern outskirts.
▪️After the capture of Volkhov Yar , Ukrainian forces advanced towards Shevchenkove, where part of the AFU group blocked the settlement, while other units continued to move towards Kupyansk.
▪️Later, the Ukrainian forces split up: part of the units went to the Kupyansk – Shevchenkove highway near the village of Grushevka.
▪️Another part of the enemy grouping made a breakthrough to the east, starting battles near the village of Senkovo on the banks of the Oskol River.
▪️In the south-east of Balakleya , the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to advance towards Veseloe and Kunye, but enemy units were rebuffed near Zaliman. Veseloye is home to a key road junction that connects Kupyansk with Izyum along the western bank of the Oskol .
▪️To the north of Slavyansk , the Ukrainian command plans to launch an offensive against the forces of the Russian Armed Forces in Izyum in order to tie up their actions and prevent them from maneuvering. Russian artillery and aviation are intensively working in the surrounding forests.
Rybar
Offensive on Donbass: the situation in the east of Ukraine
by the end of September 8, 2022
▪️Russian missile forces and artillery hit concentrations of enemy manpower in Duvanka and Konstantinovka , Chernihiv Oblast , as well as Bachevsk, Ulanovo, Bolshoy Prikol, and Prokhody in Sumy Oblast.
▪️The RF Armed Forces launched several missile strikes on the facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kharkov. Artillery duels continue in the north of the Kharkiv region.
▪️In the Izyum direction, they are trying to take control of Kupyansk , along with the key transport hubs of this sector of the front:
➖By evening, it became known about the withdrawal of units of the RF Armed Forces and the Russian Guard from Balakleya. They were able to leave the city in an organized manner along the corridor to the east of the settlement.
➖After the capture of Volokhov Yar , part of the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine blocked the garrison in Shevchenkove, the mobile units of the Ukrainian forces continued to move towards Kupyansk.
➖Later, the enemy forces split up: some units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine went to the Kupyansk-Shevchenkovo highway to Grushevka.
➖Another part of the enemy grouping made a breakthrough to the east in an attempt to occupy the village of Senkovo on the right bank of the Oskol River.
➖In the south, Ukrainian forces continued to try to take the road junction at Vesely .
▪️Northwest of Slavyansk , the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an unsuccessful attack on Kopanki . The Ukrainian command plans to launch an offensive against the forces of the RF Armed Forces in Izyum in order to tie up their actions and prevent them from maneuvering. Russian artillery and aviation are intensively working in the surrounding forests.
▪️There are no changes in the Bakhmut (Artemovsky) direction : the parties are engaged in positional battles on the outskirts of Bakhmut and Soledar.
▪️In the Donetsk direction, the allied forces were able to advance in the suburbs of Donetsk :
➖The units of the NM DPR occupied the powerful Bolshoi Muraveinik fortified area near the Donetsk airport , from where the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been shelling the capital of the DPR for the last 8 years.
➖To the east of the Experimental NM, the DPR is making attempts to take the fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of an abandoned part of the missile defense system.
➖Continue outskirts of Pervomaisky. The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an unsuccessful counterattack on Peski.
▪️In the Zaporozhye region, Ukrainian saboteurs attacked the administration building of Energodar using a drone, no one was injured.
▪️In the Kryvyi Rih direction , positional battles continue on the outskirts of Olgino and Arkhangelsk , as well as south of Vysokopole.
I agree with absolutely each and every observation. Which isn’t anything or taking sides, but just fact.
However, watching NATO aircraft, surroundingUkraine, electronically scanning Russian troop movement, DPR movement, American military satellites used to direct American and NATO officers and special forces in missile fire in Ukraine, its only a matter of time before they become lucky.
Also, the possibility of third parties involvement in proceeding, become greater by the day. Here in these nations, most people are ill informed at best, and down right lied to by the fascist government. The oligarchy run media and BBC. All our media is American owned with the usual accompanying propaganda and a total disregard for truth or reporting impartiality. Reporters, haven’t the integrity or moral courage or actually understand the concepts of there profession. But hence they are allowed to work.
This English government talks of defending the Ukrainian Nazi regime, and conscription has had its second reading, but cisted by Tory MPs and can be resurrected at any time, our fascist government decides. Hence the misunderstanding by people regarding the map previously posted.
Please keep us informed, thank you, it’s a privillage to read your posts. The only light that’s not so far banned in this English “democracy”!
So it seems a multidimensional war (of high dimensionality) in which one side has deeply imbibed all the lessons of its history and martial traditions, while the other side is a “remote-controlled nazi zombie organism” (Kotenok quote).
Good to see Saur Moglia restored.
“not only to save Russian lives (why waste them for a few trenches or buildings??”)
– oh yeah. And what about many thousands of the locals of Balakleya, Shevchenkovo etc etc, who openly declared their pro-Russian sympathies since last spring? Collateral damage? Their fate now will be horrible – remember Bucha and проеб 1.О. of March in the North. Balakleya is another проеб, again of the terrible scale.
The overall situation is very serious. A lot of problems inside the Shoigu’ Ministry. Contrary to Mr. Martyanov’ over-optimism, our enemy is not stupid and is not dancing accordingly to the Benny Hill Show’ famous tunes. The war will be long.
Very best regards,
Alexander Mezentsev
With the onset of winter not only foliage will be more sparse denying Ukrainians what cover they might have, but just as importantly – hiding in bunkers will become extremely difficult unless they want to freeze inside them. Energy likewise will be more of an issue – at the moment they can dedicate most of it to the armed forces, but come winter they will have to divert most of it to heat the population. These are but a few things that winter will bring for the Ukrainians. Perhaps this is why they are gambling all they have left now.
By the way, there is a version in the Russian media that the battle for Balakleya is the battle for the Shebelinsky gas field, the largest on the territory of the former Ukraine.
Some what like a quote from Oliver Goldsmith, albeit on a greater scale. And a page out of the guerilla handbook.
“He who fights and runs away, may live to fight another day,
But he who is battle slain can never rise to fight again”
Good anaysis. Thanks.
There is one thing which poses an objective concern and I hope is taken care of by the Russian political and military command:
Civilians in areas Russian military leaves behind upon retreating.
This is of grave concern for multiple reasons. We all know what Ukrainian military thinks of local population, have seen them killing and torturing civilians in these areas and even saw the laws in Ukraine which support nothing short of torture and massacre of any civilian not in guerrilla with Russians. In support of this, many videos of regular Ukrainian military members speak in camera of who will they kill and torture once they get into this and that town and city.
Are the civilians evacuated preemptively, before any possible attack which would induce the retreat is conceived?
If not, that is terrible.
Terrible for the support of local civilians to Russian and DPR/LPR military and their morale.
Terrible for morale of Russian and DPR/LPR military morale, as they must know they save themselves, but leave the civilians they came in to protect in the first place to be butchered.
There was some talk about not letting the civilians hang like this after the military retreat earlier, I just can’t recall exactly if it was by the Russian command or not.
P. S.
From our point of view in Serbia, time indeed does work for us too, but we’re holding our breath above the water, counting for how long could we dive in and fight everyone before you guys can reach the Danube delta and get the frustrated West off of our back, so we could get a breather, fighting just the Albanians, Croats, lobotomized Bosnia muslims and potentially (also lobotomized) Bulgarians. Because all this bunch is about to make a move by their becrazed puppeteer.
@Saker, why do you think the Russian airforce has been dormant so much? What about the huge force deployment to Belarus, anything in the offing that we don’t know? I suspect the Russians have planned this withdrawals but what about the captured of a lieutenant colonel that the west is reporting right now?
Excellent article, Andrei.
Guess I would have to agree with ‘mr Martyanov’s over optimism’. Not questioning his military analysis but the constant reference to the ‘incompetence’ of Western politicians. Well, lying and twisting reality has worked very well for the West, that is one thing. Another is that Western leaders are now puppets, lobbyists for a clique that has very sinister plans also for the population of their own countries and now wants to direct anger at this towards Russia. In short they now serve the finance sector (see Michael Hudson for this) and a fake climate emergency that serves as pretext.
This short article summarizes it without drama.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/europe-energy-armageddon-from-berlin-brussels-not-moscow/5792005
Can someone address this observation?
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/8049
Map with all the bridges that lead to Andreevka which is the main assembly & jump off point for the Ukr offensive. They are all relatively small bridges that can be destroyed fairly easily and would seriusly impede the supply of the Ukrainians…why they haven’t been bombed is a mystery 🤨 – map via Military Summary
Rybar
❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦 The battle for Kharkov: the situation on the Izyumsko-Kupyansky sector of the front
as of 17.00 on September 9, 2022
▪️The transferred reserves of the RF Armed Forces from Borovaya managed to repel the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Gorokhovatka and prevent the cutting of the Izyum-Borovaya bridge . Fighting is currently underway in the area of the village of Yasinovatoe .
▪️The settlements of Sinikha , Senkovo , Lesnaya Stenka , Fedorovka are under constant fire control of the RF Armed Forces. The main shock fist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not yet been activated in this sector : small maneuverable groups tried to pass from Senkovo and Grushevka to the south.
▪️In Kupyansk and Izyum , they announced the evacuation of the civilian population: the RF Armed Forces are preparing for defense and a possible siege of settlements. A significant part of the residents do not want to leave their homes – even despite the threat of reprisals from the Ukrainian forces.
▪️APU “Haymarsami” struck at the command post of the RF Armed Forces in Dvurechnaya . As a result of shelling, the bridge in Kupyansk across the Oskol River was partially disabled.
▪️The fate of the eastern Balakleya and the section of the Balakleya-Savintsy highway remains unclear .
🔻At this stage, the most optimistic scenario for the development of the situation on the part of the command of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is the creation of a boiler and luring the destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Shevchenkovo - Kupyansk – Izyum – Balakleya square .
How realistic this scenario is, only time will tell. So far, the task of the day of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is to stop the advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and prevent it from gaining a foothold on the achieved lines.
The Ukrainian tactics of using small maneuverable groups in the style of the “Islamic State” justified itself at the first stage, now heavy equipment and mobile air defense systems are being brought up.
If the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to gain a foothold, then it will be much more difficult to recapture the occupied territories, and the battle will obviously not be on these lines.
However, in Kupyansk and Izyummove really large forces.
Was every Russian soldier in the Izium Area on leave? Or what kind of incompetence created this situation? If it was deliberately to lur AFU then I might understand but if you remember Bucha still you know why you shouldn´t retreat from a village leaving these residets alone against nazi scum
Thank you, Andrei, for this article. It explains to me why Russia sometimes retreats. I just wanted to comment about these silly people who say that Gog and Magog are Russia. Ezechiel 38 and 39 state that Magog will go UP. Russia cannot go up because she is as up already as it gets.
This analysis is sorely needed in the west, where all we get for “news” is whatever is said by the Ukrainian government, to wit:
Ukraine Claims Significant Gains Against Russia on Multiple Fronts
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces have “liberated” more than a thousand square kilometers of territory this month.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/09/world/ukraine-russia-war#ukraine-says-it-has-regained-ground-in-the-kharkiv-region
The real question is why does the US continue to pour billion$ of weaponry and money into the black hole that is Ukraine? The answer (other than criminal money laundering) is our foreign policy is dictated by the same nincompoops who gave us Iraq and Afghanistan, who were aptly described by Kurt Vonnegut as “upper crust C-students who know no history or geography”.
This is an enlightening edition of RT’s “Crosstalk”:
CrossTalk : Attempting suicide?
https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/562286-europe-energy-attempting-suicide/
Professor Michael Hudson sees the U.S. pursuing its stated goal of “full spectrum dominance” by purposely crushing Europe’s economy (thus eliminating a competitor as they make it dependent upon U.S. supplied goods) while (it thinks that it is) bleeding Russia dry in preparation for doing the same to China and India. Of course, this ignores the fact that Russia, China and India aren’t just going to roll over; indeed, they are constructing an alternative economic model that is not tied to the U.S. dollar.
We are ruled by monumentally stupid people who are totally blind to reality because of the wealth and power that keeps them in an insulated bubble world. They are absorbed with their own quasi-religious beliefs, which the mass media obediently spews. Apparently, these idiots have forgotten that its their own propaganda. They’re drinking their own Kool-Aid.
“and to “pull in” the Ukrainians into a network of mobile defenses” the master of this in the 2nd world war was General Gotthard Fedor August Heinrici.
Thanks Andrei for this article. Really good read for a non military person like me. Very logical and succinct explanation.
Ty Saker for these explanations. Russia will clearly achieve her goals and I guess Ukraine will mit be the only battlefield und the nearer future. Poland and other states are just waiting for the Russian whip it seems.
God bless Russia
I am not Russian and do not speak the language. Yet, to a point, I was “rooting” for the Russians, and was coming to this site from time to time to get the perspective from the russian side.
Now I know not to trust the analyses of the Saker. From the giddy enthusiasm of Day 4 of the conflict (there is no Ukrainian army left, all that is left to do is a quick clean-up), to justification for the disastrous Kiev dash (“it’s 4D chess, you simpleton!”) to the perpetual predictions of ukrainian collapse, to the latest cope about the ukrainian offensive (“it’s all part of the Plan, we’re luring them into a trap!”) and silence about the latest action around Kharkiv.
Wow, reading this makes me think I stumbled in to the twitter zone by mistake.
I am so sorry for you Frank that the Russian military is not on par with the Hollywood versions of the US and Uk militaries, whom always win every battle, never suffer setbacks, and gloriously win every war that they didn’t start as they are the good guys!
A comment of mine that had already been admitted here has subsequently been deleted. Still, I think it had an important message in it, that should be self-evidient but apparently isn’t:
“You have to balance the analyses here with the mockery in the comments section and with those sources that you are discouraged to read, such as Strelkov, or enemy propaganda.”
Now here’s a link to an analysis of recent events from Balakleya to Kupyansk that will put things into perspective – and give everyone but the hords of trolls in disguise reason to cheer up:
https://t.me/actualiteFR/18094
It is in French and if you don’t understand French you can use an online translation service such as Google or Yandex, just like real men (and women) do.
I read somewhere in the last few days that if the Ukies really and truly want to “de-Communize” or “de-Sovietize” the Ukraine, why not return ALL territory assigned to Soviet Ukraine by Lenin, Stalin, & Kruschev? This would be ideologically consistent for the SuperNationalists, & could bring the fighting to halt. (I only have a half a tongue-in-cheek.)
The military strategy employed by Russia in Ukraine, and defended here, is leading towards WWIII:
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/09/06/the-kremlins-limited-military-operation-in-ukraine-was-a-strategic-blunder/
Charles, it’s cute how worried you are about the current situation, that could result in WW3 is Russia’s fault. Maybe, just maybe, you might consider applying some critical thinking and basic knowledge of events transpired over the last 30 years to realize whose fault it is the world is on the precipice…
Just sayin’…
If we are lucky, Russia will save the world from the Western neo-Nazism (as it seems to be destined to do every 100 years or so) and the neo-colonial, genocidal, rapacious West will finally crawl under the rock where it belongs and the rest of the world can continue happily thereafter without these neo-Nazi nutcases.
Great article, Andrei! Kudos!
To support your article, here is a coolheaded take on the current situation in Balakleya from today’s interview with the Head of the Chechen SpetsNaz (Special Forces) Apti Allaudinov: https://t.me/SolovievLive/126209.
In summary:
– the Russian military knew of the offensive preparations well in advance: Apti said “It’s kinda impossible to hide preparing an offensive with more than 30,000 troops, you know”…
– the decision was made by the Russians to deliberately pull back a lot of their forces from the most likely attack vector in order to ensure the Ukraine army does not change its mind to attack (to lure the prey in),
– the plan all along was to have the Ukis leave their numerous fortified positions in and around Kharkov (to eliminate them there is longer, harder, requires more ammo). And Balakleya was abandoned deliberately to try to stretch out the 30,000-people strong Uki force as far as possible — that way it is much easier to clobber it out of existence with the lowest possible losses of own people,
– apparently today the Ukis realized what’s been happening (they realized it was a trap all along) and stopped moving forward. But, as Apti said, they have been already stretched out far enough for the Russian army to effectively demilitarize these 30,000 poor souls,
– Apti estimated that yesterday they managed to eliminate about 5,000 Ukis and today another 2,500. So, 7,500 or 25% of the attacking force in two days. At this rate the entire 30,000 will be KIA by September 15 or abouts.
Most laymen still don’t seem to understand — the main objective that Putin has clearly stated is to completely, 100% demilitarize and denazify the Ukraine while minimizing own losses. Not to grab and hold some towns and villages. And what better way to do that other than to trade some empty land in exchange for demilitarizing 30,000 neo-Nazis in the North plus another 10,000 in the South (near Kherson) in just 10 days?!
Within about one week we’ll know how many of the 30,000+10,000 neo-Nazis avoided demilitarization & denazification.
I have seen some sources, Ukrainan, saying that they have liberated kupyansk and Izium. I assume that it is just propaganda or is it some truth in that
The Saker guy remains the best source of information on the Ukraine war. Keep it up, Saker!
i saw the ‘spearhead push’ and thought two concepts:
salient
kessel
Parabéns, Saker, gostei da sua análise. Brasil. 👏👊
Congratulations, Saker, I liked your analysis. Brazil. 👏👊
Excellent
1. C4ISR: Command, Control, Computer, Communication (rather not C3).
2. The USA fought heavily in WW1 and WW2.
It also fought Iraqi tank divisions in 2003 and hardly made it.
3. I call this kind of war, likewise the middle-eastern wars since 2007: OrBat (Order of Battle) wars,
which role is to diminish the opponent’s quantities of war-fighting capabilities.
Even regardless of conquest and control: rather winding-down the opponent’s capabilities to cause harm.
4. The reason for an SMO is to keep a safety-distance from an all-out conflagration with NATO:
4.1 NATO has already counted towards 8,000 dead among its troops in Ukraine this year.
2.2 NATO is proactively looking for a nuclear inferno and WW3, in order to reset itself into a total hellhole.
Wow. Great reading and interesting points. Thank you.
Can someone explain a very basic question to me?
Why are our governments and media lying to us about this SMO?
I might be naieve because I dont get it.
Excellent information thank you very much
Dreizin has said that this counterattack was unexpected and could lead to nuclear retaliation. You are saying that it was expected and a way to draw the enemy in to cause maximum casualties. How long before we know the outcome?
I like the comparison of steppe warfare to a naval battle, because it describes the very fluid nature it can have if it becomes mobile.
This situation makes me recall the Russian Civil War and the ebb and flow across vast distances of steppe. Russia and its surrounds were invaded by the USA, UK, Japan and France. The West armed, funded and supplied the Whites.They would make advances of hundreds or even thousands of kilometers as the Reds gave ground. Yet the Reds were able to defeat the Whites who were initially backed by the full weight of the West like UKR is now. Similar occurred in China three decades later. Vast swathes of land were yielded, but it did not mean defeat.
What’s more, the USA’s prime target is not the Russian army in UKR or land in UKR. It never was. The target is the Russian economy, overextending it, and causing its collapse, which they would hope brings about regime change. An attempt to break the Russia China strategic partnership that threatens US global supremacy. That is why the USA is so ruthlessly prepared to spill an ocean of UKR blood.
Protecting Russia’s economy is of far higher priority than holding land and villages in UKR. The SMO mode of conflict using limited forces in UKR has allowed Russia to do this and weather sanctions etc. It keeps most of its men working in the economy rather than being deployed to UKR. There are risks to doing this and until this current UKR offensive it had been paying off. Heavy attrition was and still is being inflicted on UKR armed forces and massive pressure was and still is being placed upon western economies.Lugansk oblast was completely liberated and the southern corridor to Crimea was opened.
Mobilization has risks for Russia too, because it will be very disruptive to the economy that Russia has so far managed to protect from the West’s assault upon it. Russia does not have loans from Uncle Sam to pay pensions and salaries like Kiev whose economy is almost at a complete standstill. Russia must keep its economy running at the highest capacity it can.
The battlefield in this conflict is far greater than UKR. It is global and hybrid. As long as the Russian economy endures the assault upon it, then the West has not achieved its number one war aim. Therefore protect the Russian economy first, conduct SMO to D&D UKR second. That is the way it must be, because you can not achieve the latter without the former.
I think Russia will muster more forces for UKR, but I doubt it will fully mobilize due to the economic imperative of needing its economic to continue functioning as normally as possible. However, in February Putin did mention the possible need of moving to a different economic system. He did not specify which type, but if it is possible to do so, it could allow far more Russian men to be mobilized. At this stage it appears just a bolstering is required though, which has already begun.
Thank you for your observations and analysis.
what about russian speaking population that get harrased, tortured or killed by these crazy ucranian soldiers that want revenge? Are they taken into consideration? How could the russian army protect the russian civilian population in this smart retreats?
This analysis did not age well. Three days later, “some kilometers” added up to losing two complete sections of the front, where Ukraine has now unhindered access to the Russian border again, limited options for Russian logistics to Slavyansk/Kramatorsk cauldron (which does not look as cauldron-like as before, does it?), tens of thousands of pro-russian civilians forced to leave their homes. I would not call this a “PSYOP/PR opportunity”, but an impressive show of force and capability. Ukraine has shown, that it indeed can – given the necessary means and support – roll back the Russians. Now we can expect dramatic increase in support, ramping up of training programmes has already started, ramping up of western weaponry delivery will follow. That might add up to 50-100000 new ukrainian troups, equipped and (mostly…) trained, _every month_ from now on. Artillery might be king on the battlefield, but a lot of motivated mechanised infantry plus some tanks and good intel seem to be pretty effective, too. Russia needs to accept the fact, that this is not a “special operation” any more, but a large scale war, and commit itself accordingly.
You are the finest writer in your genre that I have encountered. This is buttressed by your palpable honesty and integrity. I can see these because they are the principal virtues I look for in those I look to for information.
Your closing about the trolls, Heh heh… this is exactly my perspective and means of controlling the narrative by not leaving the door wide open for fools to turn it into Altamont (I was there). You get a good crowd here. Keep it that way.
Well, the… shit… is… about… to… hit… the… fan from several directions. Shelter in place.
Warm Regards,
Dog Poet
Thank you very much, Andrei, for a wonderful article! This is a big slap on the faces of clown’s troop! I don’t think that they believe in what they type, simply like evil never tells the truth but presents in the “nearly perfect” guise of an angel, with plenty of conscience, ha ha.. Today i even heard an US guy proud that because they took over the world from British, so other countries could finalise their national liberation.. 😆😆
I’m a Vietnamese citizen! I have every confidence in Mr. Putin and Russia, not only about the SMO but also in leading us in the anti-US and taking this world to brand new pages. There never had been such an extensive and total war (that I witness in my life) between black and white, justice and injustice like this!
Here in my country there are reactionaries (lackeys of US + West) deliberately paint a deceitful picture and a lot of people are cheated. But, there are people like me, who uncover all the stories and shake them up. We are prevailing over the other side. More and more people stand with “bear” Russia and work against US, West + Nazi clown. Victory belongs to Great Russia!
I would love to sign up on your site and be updated with any news or analysis.
Thanks again & kindest regards,
Tracy Hường
The massive attack of the Ukrainian army near Charkiv reminds me of the US rental car commercial with Budget Cars.
They once had a commercial “We try harder” to lure customers to their company.
How did the competition respond? The printed everywhere “Don’t try harder. Try smarter!”
And that’s how the Ukrainian leadership tries: harder and harder and in the end achieves nothing but dead soldiers on their side. Their attacks have been random shooting into villages and cities. Their usage of very expensive (and increasingly rare) HIMARS and Excalibur weapons on city buildings, shopping centers etc. make headlines in the news but no real results in the war. Just senseless waste of means.
They try harder, but not smarter.
Lieber Andrej
ich danke Dir für Deinen sehr guten Beitrag. Er macht mir Mut, weiterhin an einen Erfolg für Russland zu glauben. Ich bete, flehe unseren Herrn Jesus Christus an, Herrn Putin und allen seinen Mitstreitern den Sieg zu geben. Es ist scheußlich, was die US- Führung mit der NATO- Führung umsetzen möchte. Und unsere deutsche Regierung macht da noch mit.
Mit herzlichen Grüßen
Hans-Jürgen
Dear Andrei
I thank you for your very good contribution. He encourages me to keep believing in Russia’s success. I pray, implore our Lord Jesus Christ to give victory to Mr. Putin and all his comrades-in-arms. It is hideous what the US leadership wants to do with the NATO leadership. And our German government is still involved.
With kind regards
Hans Jürgen
Thank you for insights. “Civilians” haven’t a clue. Moi 😵💫
Thank you. There is much written ,reliably, in the scriptures,11 Peter 1:9, and we are instructed to pay attention “as to a light shining is dark place until the day dawn’s and the morning star rises in your hearts”.
The wars and rumors of wars, the earthquakes and pestilences are the precursors, the labor pains as it were, prophesied by Jesus Christ in Matthew 24.
We have a choice. To receive forgiveness of sin from the redemptive work of Jesus on the Cross, and to live in the resurrection power of the Holy Spirit, or-
To continue in the destruction of the enemy of God, satan, who only kills, steals and destroys.
I pray you hear God’s voice calling you to repentance be and salvation through His promises, know Jesus Christ and be known eternally secure, no matter what befalls our world through these last days
Thank you for your thoughtful analysis and military strategy information. It is much as I thought.
I have always believed in what Mao said…that manpower is vital in winning a war and that the gaining of territory at the cost of vast numbers of men lost in battle is the way to lose a war. I believe Russia will do as you have outlined, and not risk the lives of its men but rather thin out the enemy’s military until there are few of Ukraine’s soldiers left, then retake lost territory.