For the Saker Blog by Saker Staff
The main observation which one cannot help but agree with, comes from Andrei Martyanov and I rephrase somewhat:
The rate of change is markedly accelerating as the first result of the crumbling and implosion of the Ukraine as a state and the structure of its armed forces.
Things will go quicker now and they are, as discussed further!
First though, pure fantasy. We call it ‘narrative’ but it is fantasy!
This was found on a Ukrainian site : https://t.me/ice_inii
Take a look at a few things here: The US influence, the fantasy of being the Robin Williams character in the movie Good Morning Vietnam and the fantasy of being the gook! These fighters live in a movie. And then, the breakdown of the fantasy. This is another example of exactly what Martyanov means.
We stay for a moment in fantasy.
Andrei Martyanov commented on Lieutenant-General Kellog who, contrary to his statement about “everything he learned about war”, never learned shit. http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/05/when-bs-meter-goes-off-scale.html
A quick comparison of the US and the UK commentary on Putin’s speech
Here we have UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace. This can only be classified as repugnant and if Kellog according to Martyanov ‘never learned shit’, this one only ‘talks shit’. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/speech-by-defence-secretary-on-russias-invasion-of-ukraine
A short snippet:
“I thought about the scale of their (ordinary Russian soldier) suffering across the Soviet Union, but also how the suffering was used, then as it is now, to cover up the inadequacy of those ruling in safety and comfort from behind the Kremlin walls above and within the General Staff nearby.
Foreign Minister Baerbock has no idea what she is saying and her grasp of history is non-existent.
“Germany is responsible for the defense of Ukraine and all of Europe,”
Zelensky, besides his other problems, is tone deaf ..
So, President Zelensky congratulates Ukraine on V-day over Nazism featuring a soldier who wears “Totenkopf”(“dead head”), a symbol of the elite [Nazi] division of Waffen-SS during WWII.
After complaints,the press service replaced the photo but the original was there for 30+ min.. pic.twitter.com/JZnEBCvvd5— Maxim A. Suchkov (@m_suchkov) May 9, 2022
They are not ashamed any longer. They say it in the open
“We are using the Ukrainians for the time being as proxies. We potentially face an economic cataclysm in the US. Inflation is inevitable. We have this long-running move towards the border of Russia. The ‘Boys from Davos’ plot out the future of the world.” — Senator Richard Black pic.twitter.com/krozY8UplJ
— 🅰pocalypsis 🅰pocalypseos 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🅉 (@apocalypseos) May 10, 2022
And then moving from fantasy, we have the voices of realism
Chinese View:
“In his Victory Day speech on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin “calmly but firmly” stated that Russia had to take preemptive actions in its special operation in Ukraine as NATO had created an “absolutely unacceptable threat” at Russia’s borders. According to Chinese analysts, the speech was delivered in a “restrained” manner to send a clear signal to the West that Russia will not accept intensified pressure to squeeze Russia’s strategic space, but at the same time showed Putin was leaving some room for negotiation.” https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1265207.shtml
US Embassy in China mocked by Chinese netizens after comparing Russia with Nazi Germany. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1265112.shtml
We have to accept that the Ukraine was meant as a new Afghanistan. Take a look:
The US Department of Defense has claimed credit for “westernizing” the Ukrainian military by giving it training and weapons to oppose Russia, according to spokesman John Kirby. However, the results of the effort made over the past eight years apparently took by surprise even the US’ own military intelligence, he implied in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday. US officials had expected the imminent capture of Ukraine’s capital during first days of the conflict with Moscow. Kirby went on to fantasize :
The spokesman said military intelligence by nature is a mosaic that officers try to piece together, sometimes coming to erroneous conclusions. He then went on to complement the Department of Defense and the administration of President Joe Biden for a job well done in preparing Ukrainian troops to fight against Russia.
Narrative is a good word for this, but using the word fantasy is better!
So in the broader commenting environment, everyone comments on Mr.Putin, but Russia has lost the propaganda war? Who was it that said All Press is Good Press.
We end with Mr.Lavrov in one of his latest pressers:
The completion of the special operation will force the West to stop promoting a unipolar world under the dominance of the US.
The end of the special operation in Ukraine will contribute to the cessation of Western attempts to undermine international law.
The Russian Federation is interested in all civilians leaving the zones of the special operation in Ukraine.
The UN Secretary General missed the opportunity to achieve a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.
A little more realism with a document that you can use for friends and family:
So if the Simon Wiesenthal Center in Israel says there are nazis in the Ukraine, just perhaps there are. A document that you may use for your friends. https://www.b92.net/eng/news/world.php?yyyy=2022&mm=04&dd=14&nav_id=113531
Returning for a moment to Martyanov’s statement, let’s add something to it.
The rate of change is markedly accelerating as the first result of the crumbling and implosion of the Ukraine as a state and the structure of its armed forces. In addition the fantasy narrative has become so ludicrous that it is showing clear signs of crumbling.
———————
Line of Contact
This is a two and fro scenario. Bear in mind this is the line that had 8 years to dig in, dreaming of killing all Russians in the Donbass regions. Russian forces over this very long line are using various artillery to soften up, remove and kill Ukrainian forces. The Russians manoevre continuously against the dug in fighters. But they are not throwing good fighting soldiers against a hard wall. They retreat, bring in the heavy artillery, and move in again.
And then, they break through:
Units of the People’s Militia of the Lugansk People’s Republic (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1553), supported by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, have completed mopping-up of Popasnaya from nationalists and broken through the deeply echeloned enemy defence and reached the administrative border of the Lugansk People’s Republic.
Yesterday morning Readovka reports that the whole theater is calmer at the moment but these skirmishes and softening up and manoevre happens continuously. Here are typical front line battles:
On the outskirts of the village of #Popasnaya in the #Luhansk region, fighting continues between the #Ukrainian and #Russian military #Donbass pic.twitter.com/lL1UwmTmDm
— Middle East Update (@islamicworldupd) May 11, 2022
In the mean time, on the Ukrainian side, this is what is happening:
- Territorial defense fighters complain about being sent to the front
- Militants of the 101st Territorial Defense Brigade (TrO) from the Transcarpathian region complain that they were sent to the front line in the LPR. According to them, the formation was created to protect checkpoints in the rear and is not intended for combat operations.
- The militants have no military training. Many of them complain about health problems. The militants believe that they will become a target for Russian artillery.
- It should be noted that the units of the 101st Troop Brigade were transferred to the front line only three days ago, but they are already experiencing problems with morale.
- Recall that today was also a protest action organized by relatives of militants from the 103rd Troop Brigade from the Lvov region.
Back to creating brutal, costly and bloody fantasy:
From the Russian Mod
⚡️According to reliable information, the Kiev regime has carried out another bloody action in Kharkov Region based on the Bucha scenario.
▫️6 civilian vehicles with white flags mounted on them were shot at by AFU soldiers on a stretch of road between Staryi and Novyi Saltov.
▫️The photo and video footage of this heinous crime was made by specialists from the AFU’s Centre for Information and Psychological Operations.
🔹In addition, from the area of private houses in Belaya Krinitsa, Kherson region, the Ukrainian armed forces’ artillery struck several positions of the Russian Armed Forces in order to provoke retaliatory fire on residential buildings with civilians, whom the territorial defence fighters are not letting out of the blockaded settlement by holding them as a “human shield”.
❗️We warn in advance that these and other materials fabricated by the Kiev regime about alleged “Russian atrocities” are soon to be widely spread through the Western and Ukrainian media, as well as online resources.
And these are the ones this time, standing ready to record the fantasy and play it to an unsuspecting public (I wonder if they pay for the privilege?):
▫️Meanwhile, Norwegian media representatives were present in Belaya Krinitsa for photo and video recording of allegedly indiscriminate Russian strikes against civilians.
….
Odessa
We had some spectacular firing on Odessa and environments. You see, there was this hotel where the head honchos of the Ukrainian forces were stationed. And close to that, was a shopping mall used as an ammunition depot.
We can take one comical moment: The special forces of the DPR army tracked down the headquarters of one of the artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donetsk direction. After waiting for their commanders to gather at headquarters, an ATGM was struck. After the surviving Ukrainians running out of the headquarters turned out to be naked, it became clear what their gunners were doing at meetings. Now the world community will accuse our side of mass killing of LGBT people. https://t.me/intelslava/28446
Snake Island – More fantasy propaganda
This one did not survive the fantasy: Ex commander of Ukraine’s 10th Naval Aviation Brigade, Colonel Igor Bedzai — announced dead by Ukrainian media. He was one of Ukraine’s top pilots — often flying missions in AD contested areas. The pilot died on May 7. It appears that he was piloting one of the helicopters that were shot down over Snake Island — the very same ones Ukraine claimed were Russian
◾️ The Kiev regime’s mindless PR campaign (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1558) to seize Snake Island on the eve of Victory Day resulted in the senseless deaths of more than five dozen Ukrainian fighters and members of elite AFU units, the loss of 4 aircraft, 10 helicopters, 3 boats and 30 unmanned aerial vehicles.
Snake Island – propaganda effort by the Ukraine
https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/status/1523779782437072896
https://tass.com/defense/1449045
snake island
https://www.rt.com/russia/555268-snake-island-pr-military/
Trying to outshine the Russian 9th military parades by the Ukrainian Snake Island fantasy, was a comical error. The Russians are burying Ukie corpses floating up from the ocean.
Intel Slava Z reports this morning (Be very aware that this is NON VERIFIED!) On Snake Island, English and American high-ranking officers disappeared during the landing. For their sake, the Ukrainian military fought for two days. But it was not possible to return the officers, or at least their bodies. According to our source in the General Staff, an American marine lieutenant colonel, as well as an English major from the commando brigade of the marine corps, landed on Snake Island together with Ukrainian fighters.
They coordinated the work of NATO intelligence assets and the Ukrainian landing forces. Both officers landed in the first wave. But then the Russians shot down three helicopters and one landing craft was sunk. The remaining boats withdrew, leaving the first wave of landing on the shore. According to our source, London and Washington demanded that Zelensky make every effort to return their officers. Despite several attempts to re-land on the island, it was not possible to find out the fate of the English and American marines. It is assumed that they died in battle with the Russians. But so far, as our source says, there is no confirmation of this information. It is possible that both were captured. In turn, the attempt to return their bodies cost the Ukrainian forces several planes and helicopters shot down, as well as several dozen dead marines and special forces.
Azovstal
Over Azovstal
📽️Russian planes bombing Azovstal #Mariupol #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/InWiLMNQri
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) May 10, 2022
The head of the DPR Pushilin: there are no civilians left at Azovstal, so our hands are untied
Back to Martyanov’s truism.
One of his commentators did a chart of Russian strikes. (Thank-you!)
Let’s get some help from Geroman and assess the Russian Strikes.
You guys have no idea how much damage Russia causes DAILY with air-defense, ballistic, cruise & air-to-ground missiles. Every day the Russian MoD runs a briefing and moves on. I will let you know what got destroyed today (this was a day ago), so you understand the scope of Ukrainian losses:
Let’s parse the Russian Mod report of a day ago:
- unspecified number of Ukrainian helicopters destroyed on the ground by an Onyx missile in Artsiz, Odessa region
- ammunition depot destroyed near Gulkhov
- MLRS “Smerch” and 1 S300 in the Bohodukhov area
- air-defense shot down 2 MiG-29 in Iverskoe and Novodonetskoe
- one Su-25 shot down near Pogonovka in the Kharkiv region
- UAV’s shot down near Snake Island inc 2 Bayraktar TB2’s
- UAV’s shot down in Balakleya, Shiikovka, Goptovka, Kamienka, Aveevka + a few other places 8- a US supplied counter-battery radar destroyed in Zolotoy
- MLRS “Grad” & 2 command posts near Popasna
- Russia MLRS and artillery hit 26 command posts, 26 artillery units in firing positions & 211 areas of manpower and equipment concentration resulting in up to 350 kills
THIS WAS 1 DAY – It happens literally every day
And in the background, Russian engineers have completed humanitarian demining of Kamyanka, Izyum district of Kharkov region. And they still have time to give us footage of S-300V anti-aircraft missile system and Igla man-portable missile system operators (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1552) in action. They also have time to hand out humanitarian aid.
Here is today’s early Mod Report.
▫️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.
✈️💥During the night, operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 93 assets, including 2 command posts, 69 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 3 ammunition depots of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
💥Missile troops and artillery units have hit 407 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, destroying 13 command posts, 4 positions of Osa-AKM anti-aircraft missile systems and 14 ammunition depots.
▫️The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 280 nationalists and up to 59 armoured and motor vehicles.
💥Russian air defence means have shot down 9 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles: 4 near Balakleya in Kharkov Region, 3 near Rubezhnoe in Lugansk Region, 1 near Snake Island and 1 Bayraktar-TB2 near Arkhangelskoe in Nikolaev Region overnight.
For minute details, please look at https://readovka.news/
Moon of Alabama also has a good line-up here https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-putin-on-why-the-war-started-failed-attempts-on-snake-island-other-issues-.html#more
With all of the above, and the many testimonies from Ukrainian soldiers that their commanders are just deserting and abandoning them in the field, we may see a quick collapse. What is quick? I don’t know.
Thank you, Staff!!!
Thank you!
Very interesting report regarding possible high-ranking US and UK officers who were involved on the Serpent Island debacle.
Will have to await confirmation. If true, wonder if the RF forces knew about their presence prior to the landing.
Killing Officers……two can play that game. There are reports of frontline Ukrainian Officers claiming Maternity Leave and heading home to watch the delivery. Called to a ‘special’ meeting…although I watched a vid of a truck supposedly with Ukrainian COs onboard, those ATGMs might be shit against a tank….a truck, no match.
Cheers M
I have a strong feeling that the RF Intelligence know a lot prior to many Ukrainian actions. :)
There were repeated warning in izvestia, novosti, rt, about planned May 9 provocations by Kiev.
It ain’t rocket science! The reptilian MO slithers.
But, still The west has one geopolitical victory: Sweden and Finland becoming NATO members.
Can Russia do anything about that?
mario2,
That doesn’t constitute a geopolitical victory. It’s more a psychological maneuver than say a geopolitical one. Similar to Switzerland insisting neutrality but suddenly changing course. It turns out a whole lot of things are simply fakes in the Empire of Lies.The US/West thrive on fakery just like the action movies made in Hollywood where main characters possess extraordinary powers. Sweden and Finland joining NATO will make the situation a little bit more complicated but at the same time makes them easy targets for missile strikes.
I’m also curious about that and how they will respond!
Really it is a de-masking. Finland and Sweden have postured as neutral for quite some time. This SMO has brought them into the sunlight and made them declare their allegiance. In fact, the whole world can see the Norwegian and Swedish pretentions at unbiased objectivity were theater. This is important going forward. The global south had thought that if they avoided dealing with the historic colonial powers, UK, France, Netherlands, Spain etc., that they would have a fairer opportunity. That mask is slowly falling away. They are all on the same side. And it’s good to know that.
Tune in and watch Scott Ritter’s most recent i’view. He clearly elucidates exactly how the Russians will respond.
Clue: it involves extremely high temperatures.
Becoming Nato members right before Nato is discredited and/or destroyed is the hollowness of victories.
For ”hollowness” read lunacy!
In British India, when the dead husband was being cremated the widow would jump on the funeral pyre. True, but that’s what the Nordic types seem to be emulating. Woke lemmings!
Donald Duck
“Tied up and tossed onto the funeral pyre” would be a much more accurate description.
It’s called bride-burning, not bride-suicide and that’s a reason why the British put an end to the practice.
Doubt that will happen, as those countries would be putting themselves at serious risk. Plus, increased military spending will lower their scandinavian standard of living, and then there’s that pesky neutrality treaty Finland signed with Russia a while back. IS Finland so stupid that it isn’t learning the correct lessons from ukraine? Russia will not tolerate NATO on its borders.
“Doubt that will happen, as those countries would be putting themselves at serious risk. Plus, increased military spending will lower their scandinavian standard of living, and then there’s that pesky neutrality treaty Finland signed with Russia a while back. IS Finland so stupid that it isn’t learning the correct lessons from ukraine?”
Finland broke that neutrality treaty a long time ago by allowing Nato armaments (and hybrid centres, and likely torture flights and human trafficking) on its soil. Furthermore, Finland is not a Scandinavian country (Sweden, Norway and Denmark are) and never had a Scandinavian standard of living; Finland has the worst economic growth in Europe (behind places like Moldova. As for Nato or any other political issue, Finnish people decide nothing. Every time they were asked, some 85% said no to Nato; they will not be asked again. Nor did they agree to join EU or the Euro. A criminal organised both those things, bypassing the constitution; no one protested. The same criminal will take Finland to Nato, too. By the way, Finns voted (or Israeli-run voting machines and Israeli-run media voted) said criminal as president and continue to believe that he has a (physically impossible) 99% positive popularity rating.
“Finland”, meaning a small circle of criminals, will do anything as long as they have the belief that they’ll get airlifted to safety with a suitcase of cash. And Finns being pathologically naive, I have no doubt they believe that.
Source: I’m Finnish. I left. Don’t mind it it’s bombed a bit. Stupidity should be punished.
Markku: I agree with your last sentiment. Joining Nato is a stupid move, like getting on the Titanic when it is just about to disappear beneath the waves.
The media in Finland sucks and seems like there is a large proportion of folk who just soak it up. Fear pn plus – if not the “Virus” tm but now the “Russia bad – War” stuff.
Not a fan of either the President (former banker) or the PM (WEF young leader and party girl). The Green foreign minister seems to like the idea of war as other Greens members do which is strange as War isn’t highly environmentally friendly. Oh well – so it is. Piss off one’s neighbor and trading partner – WTG.
Finland not Scandinavian but is a Nordic country for what it is worth. Not quite as pathetic as the Scandinavian neighbors but almost – the Stupid Swedes (Danes) and Norwegians take shared first prize.
NOT Titanic.. but the Olympic… Search.. Shorthand Social. Did the Titanic Really Sink or was it Olympic?
Did the ship ordered and built as Titanic then masquerade as Olympic?
I have long heard rumors that it was actually Olympic which sank, but what would be the motivation for White Star Line’s management to repaint Olympic as Titanic (on how quarters and stern)? I can understand the possibility of a switch, what I can’t unis why? What benefit is there for it to sink any ship, no matter if it’s internally damaged vs selling it to the breakers and at least getting the value of the metal at scrap prices rather than total loss on the floor of the Atlantic Ocean.
That’s what has me hung up on believing the rumor, which is otherwise believable.
I know, insurance fraud which was screwed up due to some illegal whaling in the area it went down. :)
Rule of thumb.
If the nation be white. Then the media was subverted and works for foreign hostile causes.
Finland is white. At least for now.
”IS Finland so stupid that it isn’t learning the correct lessons from ukraine?” Apparently yes! One day one Fin/Swede says to the other. ”Shall we put ourselves in the range of Russian Sarmat 28s? Yes, that’ll teach them.,
Shit for brains or what!?
Markku:
Through all of this, I have been wondering about your opinion on all of this biz a viz Finland.
Thanks for the info.
Or “Stupidity should be REWARDED” depends on how you look at it! LOL
– [Finland] never had a Scandinavian standard of living
It is maybe not because of culture. Except for Siberia, North of Finland is the coldest place on Earth.
Sweden is full of all types of natural resources. Not so in Finland. Nokia went burst … for reasons outside control of parliament.
The Finns massacred Russian soldiers with snow.
Sure. First Russia can station short distance nukes on their border of Finland and Sweden pointing at Helsinki and Stockholm.
Second if any Nato base arrangement with missiles are arranged in the two countries which jeopardize Russia’s security, they will receive same treatment as the Ukraine arrangements.
So, the Nato memberships are just paper tigers like everything else in the empire of hypocrisy and lies..
The Baltic isn’t as important for Russia as when the west had the goods and the means of production.
Now they have other option, outside NATOs reach.
Can Sweden and Finland do anything about Russia?
one SARMAT for Finland, one SARMAT for Sweden.
Joining NATO provides nothing for either, it means that the nuclear crosshairs will now move over their territories. If the US try to put Aegis ashore in these countries I am sure the Russians will respond.
Soon RF will have to face the redoubtable Nato-Vikings! Lol
Russia doesn’t have to.. Croatia and Hungary will veto the application, as been known for a while now..
You’re getting a shit-load of replies by people who are no more clued in than you are.
That was no geopolitical victory. NATO gained two new additional members that will be used as war dogs of the USA in case of World War 3 but NATO cannot attack or invade Russia without a member declaring war with Russia and is unanimously supported by all members. In short, NATO cannot do any preemptive strikes on Russia.
Sweden hasn’t been a serious military threat since the mid-17th Century.
Yes! It’s called an SMO.
Quite why you give Ben Wallace credence I am not sure. He is a typical overweight puffed-up red-faced buffoon in England. He went to Millfield – a joke public school no doubt funded by taxpayers since his father was Army. From Millfield – an undistinguished and overpriced school whose main focus is sport.
When dimwit Wallace finished he became a ski instructor in Switzerland.
When he had to find a salary he went to Sandhurst not university – and in the peacetime army any dimwit can progress – and all he attained was Captain – not a particularly elevated rank but commensurate with his limited faculties
He spews nonsense hoping to impress Washington to let him take over at NATO
My Dad served in the Guards in WW2,he told me most of the Officers in the Guards were complete clowns,Wallace was in the Guards he is the sort of idiot Dad told me about.
We need to see how theloonies are in their ivory towers…..more gives us an ironic cynical laugh. UK Defence policy a lot based on Bill Brouder hysterias. Should be available somewhere about 3 yrs ago the hearings. BBC parliamentary defence and Defence Coom hearings.
One reason for Millfield’s success and popularity has apparently been that it charged the highest fees of any British “public” (independent) school.
The desire to show off by conspicuous consumption being what it is, many sent their children there just to show they could afford it.
Vovan & Lexus played Wallace hilariously. Hurrah rutube is backl After 3 days DOS massive attack :
https://rutube.ru/plst/156005/
And then Priti Patel :
https://rutube.ru/video/32e3888b8a76b371d0abcfd5c17b0503/?playlist=156021
Wallace should be fired tor official secrets violation – the 2 had to edit some out!
Priti Patel makes the US DHS disinformation unit of Nina Jankowicz look like a joke :
Tucker Carlson explains :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4inJSblCUY&t=268s
Territorial defense fighters are typically only useful in prepared positions or fortifications. Otherwise their deployment is a utter waste. If NATO officers are really sending these Volksturm into battle to relieve the Cauldron, then we can only wonder at the complete barbarity of these NATO officers. “senseless slaughter’ comes to mind.
NATO training of foreign military over the last 30 years has been consistently a failure – Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Georgia, Somalia, Yugoslavia, and the poster child of failure in training; Afghanistan. Its consistent failure after failure after failure. Why ?
It is apparent that fighting third-world countries is not good training for fighting a first-world military.
Aside from that, “winning” is not defined by capturing a country or defearing it militarily, it is defined by ROI in weapons and strategic resources. “It’s the economy, stupid.”
To understand why one must carefully asses its true objective. It’s a failure only if one believes that it has any goal beyond instigating and sustaining armed conflict and chaos globally for the financial benefit of its promoters. Anything else that may be achieved, such as military age male population reductions amongst the untermenchen, can only be regarded as a welcome bonus.
Agreed, well said. Analysis of success and failure depends upon understanding objectives. The actual objectives of decision-makers (not the propaganda).
Reminds me of that military school during the US Civil War where the cadets were thrown into the field. What a ghastly waste.
They are trained to fight with US Forces, under the cover of US fire power, take that out of equation and they crumble immediately. Just imagine taking the whole USAF is taken out during the first day of war, how will the other branches of US Armed forces operate?
It would be nice to get some coherent, up to date information on the military situation in Ukraine and an informed assessment of what recent developments mean. We were getting that for a while. What has been put up this past week is mainly old news and mostly rah rah intended to make people feel good. There was a breakthrough in Poposnaya. A break through of Ukraine’s echeloned defenses that had been built up over 8 years. Yet, ” Readovka reports that the whole theater is calmer at the moment . . . .” This makes no sense. A breakthrough that isn’t followed by use of reserves that allow exploitation of the breakthrough is a wasted breakthrough (and a failure to use reserves for one of their intended purposes). So some explanation of what is actually going on around Poposnaya that would help us make sense of it would be very helpful. And I still don’t get why fighting this war in the manner of First World War trench warfare is such a great idea. In that war, like in Ukraine right now, both sides pounded each other’s trenches with artillery to “soften up” the other side. When troops were then sent over the top to attack the “softened up” enemy lines, they were mowed down my machine guns and artillery. Why is this manner of fighting a good way to proceed? It think marshals Vatutin, Zhukov, Koniev and Rokosovssky would have similar questions.
First world war trench warfare? Boy, are you out of touch with how this war is being fought. Russia is doing pretty much the opposite, evidenced by pretty much every bit of documented info.
Zhukov, Koniev and Rokossovsky would understand perfectly well. After all, they did pretty much the same thing, use artillery as your main weapon.
Both sides are not getting pounded only one side is and this is not sustainable for the pounded side that is incurring catastrophic losses. Are you not entertained?
There’s a blog held by a colonel of the French army, Michel Goya, who is doing a weekly analyse of the fights on the operational level. It is on “La voie de l’épée”, blogspot. All in French, though Google trad might be able to translate the spirit of the articles.
The author wrote several books on military history, elaboration of doctrines in French, British and American armies, the blunders and successes of these, the history of the adaptability of the French army during world wars and so on. The work of a searcher in military history, of sorts.
The blog usually wrote about military questions but is now far more oriented towards the observation of the conflict.
Warning : the analysis is far less “positive” to Russia than on the saker.is
You might accusé it of overestimating the capabilities to resist of the Ukrainian army and to his view, the units of the Russian army accuse à lack of rest and need a serious pause in their operation.
But it is mainly readable. At least far more than what mass media serves you.
Why would I read a French account of what is going on in Ukraine? What info can he possibly have? How does he know what the condition of the Russian troops is? As Martyanov says only the Russian leaders know the real score. The rest is just guesswork.
Not so fast – the DGSE is all over the place, and there are very likely some senior French officers in Azovstal. Looks like le Petit Roi Macron, – “l’etat (UE) c’est moi”, has tried to get them out after he fired his special ops chief.
40 French officers. And not a baguette to eat in Azovstal.
Ca fait chier!
Probably plenty of escargot’s slithering around by now, though…
Jaoa Lima : he has access to the same informations of the saker.
here’s the last article of him : point of the situation in Ukraine 8 april
I will put you an extract here and let you judge if it is worth your time. Translated in English because I’m kind enough to spare you the time to translate (and because it would be more work for the moderation ^^). Note that the (parenthèses) are from me. If there are “guillemets” It means I am not sure of the term in English, or the word is French. Good reading.
Economy of forces on the front
These 900 km of front lines are held by 27 manover Ukrainian brigades, made of 3 to 5 battalions, and brigades of the national garde /territoriales unequally put in place in line and on urban bastions. These brigades are supported by some regiments or brigades of artillery of defense area.
Against them, the divisions or Russian brigades have for the moment 95 tactical groups, compared to the 140 at the time of maximum engagement. 1 GT = 1 armored battalion reinforced + 1 battalion reinforced. Add to that two armed corps from the separatists republics, meaning some 15 GT. The combined Russian armies each own two brigades of artillery, missiles, mortars and several kinds of support equipment along 1 regiment of saper from the génie and 1 brigade of spetnaz. The whole can count on the support of some 200-300 daily “sorties” of the Russian Air forces to the bénéfice of contact units or to strike in depth of the operational théâtre.
The forces are on somewhat equilibre on the Frontline. On the contact points, the Ukrainian battalions are of somewhat superior tactical quality to their Russian counterpart, but these compensate this inferiority by superior firepower, in particular with artillery. Both sides benefits from a defensive organised advantage, especially the Ukrainians. It this situation it is difficult to obtain strategic effects as progression is difficult.
Follow a développement of the area SKS (Sllviansk, Kramatovsk, Serveridinetsk).
The sectors in equlibre
The sectors weak
The depth spaces
Intense activity of the Russian Air force with massive use of missiles to block the importation of occidental supplies.
Since 30 April, the Ukrainians lead a campaign of strikes on Snake Island at 35 km from the ukro-romanian border and 10 km from Odessa, transformed In anti aerian and anti navy base, after the destruction of cruises the Moskva. The island has been targeted by TB-2 drones which destroyed anti aerian system a “chaland” (fish boat converted into “flagship” to “show presence”?) of landing, and an “helicopter” Mi-8.
The neutralisation of the aerian défense made easier a strike with two SU-27 the 7 may on the buildings at the center of the island.
We can’t exclude the reconquest of the island to put in place an anti-access defense which could threaten until the Naval base of Sebastopol.
As many have mentioned, there are only two sources of truth regarding the “big picture” situation in Ukraine: 1. Russian military leadership, 2. President Putin. In that regard, the military only reveals important information to President Putin. And, President Putin only reveals what he feels is necessary to reveal. So, if you want a truthful running account of exactly what is happening everyday, then you need to get used to disappointments.
There are lots of propaganda stories filling the pages of the internet, but that is what they are. Even if the US or some other western government really had a good idea of what the big picture was, they would not tell anyone. They are not in the “truth business.” They are story tellers. Or, if you prefer…liars.
I’ve been following President Putin’s public speeches and discourses for at least 8 years and I’ve gone and looked as far back as his 2007 Munich speech. I’ve found him to be a man who can be trusted to speak the truth. But, I have not found him to be one who brags, or is arrogant or power hungry.
I am confident that Russia is winning the military operation. I am not confident that the US government is intelligent enough to stay out of Russia’s business.
My impression is also that Mr Putin is thoroughly honest. Rather than say anything untrue, or even marginally untrue, he says nothing.
He would make a very good poker player, as well as chess – at which I am sure he is good too.
I was trying to be somewhat discrete, but my main point was that Nightvision gave up to date, information rich, coherent, reporting and analysis of what is going on. What we get now for military sitrep is not that (to be polite).
On a different note, if there was anything that was true militarily, it is that bombing an area into rubble, or just attacking trenches with artillery, does not stop a significant enough part of the forces attacked that way from surviving and still putting up a fight. That is a large part of the story of Stalingrad, where bombing the city into rubble just made it more defensible. I understand that Stalingrad is not a perfect analogy because Stalingrad was never surrounded — humans and weapons were floated across the Volga daily to reinforce the Red Army forces in Stalingrad, and massive artillery on the East bank of the Volga regularly attacked the 6th Army.
Soviet doctrine during WWII was to have a narrow infantry attack that breaks through the German lines, to provide an opening for tank armies and infantry reserves to sweep through the opening and attack to operational depth destroying German command and control and logistical operations.
That is nothing at all like what is going on in Ukraine right now.
William Verick. Saker staff spent unpaid time to inform us and you have no right to complain.it is simply not polite and not kind to complain. Write your own Sitrep to inform us if you have better info.
As for Paposnaya it is a town on a hill and it gives fire control to the rear of Severodonaske “Maginot” line and it kills all supply routes to SD. Once Paposnaya is taken Severodonaske will fall the die is cast
William, I invite you to go and read somewhere else.
A number of people replied to you, including myself and Amarinth, specifically about nightvision and the difficulty f having certain kind f detailed military sitreps. It’d be nice if yu acknowledge reading and noting those. If you think that putting in numerous hours every day just s that us commenters and readers have ur “fix” is easy, you try it.
Did you ever notice that just reading through one of nightvision’s reports took the better part of 20-30 minutes (if paying attention and even without clicking on any of the links)? now imagine putting one of those together, and all without pay – just so that we, out there, get informed on the minutiae of the battlefield operations, not to mention some analysis and comments and editing etc.
The saker staff has been putting together quite a bit of good information and analysis like this one. Be glad you can have that much with minimal effort on your part..
If Nightvision chooses to return all the better. But if he won’t or can’t let’s just hope all is well with him, In the meantime read around as we all must do.
– I am confident that Russia is winning the military operation.
I am confident Ukraine scenario is not an ordinary Eastern Front War Game, more like Illuminati Card Game
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81%2BcUxp4TsL.jpg
Vatutin was not a marshal, although he was a General of the Army. “He was ambushed and mortally wounded in February 1944 by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Vatutin
That kind f up t date infrmation about the minutia of the military situation on the ground is what Nightvision provided. Which is why we all miss him. Whatever the reason for his disappearance, his reports – first in comments n various sitrepps, then in posts 9which we drank like water in a desert oasis) were chokfull of evidentiary/supporting bits he’d pull from Bitchute, odysee and others, which were mostly in Russian. The unique aspect of his reports is that they concentrated on the military situation on the ground, no doubt collated from Russian sources (something we all find difficult to do, if at all), bolstered by apparently deep understanding of military hardware and military tactics. There was literally nothing else out there with his kind of broad military expertise, augmented by a measured tone of discourse for all who addressed him. This is not in any way discounting the excellent sitreps, opinions and analysis brought in here, the super-valuable inputs by Martyanov and the sireps by the saker staff, which give strategic depth to what’s happening as well as context, much as the current excellent post/sitrep does.
I did not comment much on Nightvision’s reports, but was mostly a silent reader and absorber of information. I do however know something about the time and effort it takes to pull together the kind of military-informative posts he put together into a coherent, often rather lengthy report. My guess is that it’d take him the better part of 8 hours to collate all that he did, on top of the additional 2 hours he’d spend in comments taking on questions by one and all. That, to me is a herculean effort, all the more so if he was, at it seemed, working by himself, with no investigative or administrative support (perhaps he did get help from the Russian Mod? confirming various items – always necessary in light of the “fog of war”).
I figure that is what you miss – and please do go back to just the two most recent rereports from NV, the last of which appeared on April 30, followed by complete silence.
And therein lies our problem: anyone with this kind of knowledge, this ability to read far and wide through the Russian language tid-bits out there, and this willingness to put in such coherently put together detailed reports, will (1) quickly become a target for whatever/whoever, and/or (2) risk serious burn-out which can result in a shut-down (I know something about the latter on another front altogether). I totally believe Amarynth and team, our capable providers of water in the information desert, when they said they have no idea what, if anything, happened to NV and the reason for his sudden disappearance. But we should all take a lesson from that: what we want, the kind of info we seek and crave, comes at no small cost to the provider, and no matter how good, is always likely to culminate in an abrupt shut-down.
I know nothing about who NV is and can only surmise his background based on the demonstrated level of knowledge and expertise, just as I do and did for others out there in commentariat and blog land.I do, however, know he is human, and thatis something that needs to be taken into account. I – like everyone else – miss him greatly and if there were a way to deliver words of support and acknowledgement of effort I’d do so.
I also know we have no reason or standing to complain about that which we want and don’t get pronto. We, commenters on blogs, anonymous for the most part, are a bit of a spolled lot. We get used to toys (information toys for us) and just by virtue of reading around and perhaps adding a few words, start feeling entitled to more of the same “toys”. And that childish residue in us, is human too. So personally I’d cut out the whining and the wishing and the wish-washing, and simply be glad for what we get, whether it’s everything we wanted or just some of it.
There – just another lengthy opinion from another anonymous, somewhat lazy, commenter who struggles against unearned feelings of entitlement.
Thank you Merlin2, I think you expressed exactly what probably a great deal of us feel.
I send a sincere thought to all these stars who do the heavy work and have to pay for their efforts.
Very well said
Merlin,
Hear Hear !
Nightvision was a giant in aggregating and commenting on a vast stream of solid information. His reports were linked in all sorts of places. My hope is he simply decided to take a break. My fear is he was Doxx’d and then shut down by bad guys.
I share your fear that he was doxx’d, exile. There can’t have been too many like him out there, so chances are high someone(s) out there would have figured out who he is, and dropped a hint or two (which could be scary too). His posts were also getting noticed far and wide (saw quite a few references to them in all kinds of places, just in the second week after he started posting them, and the traffic in the comments was increasing by leaps and bounds (it helped that he was way so generous answering every question, and always polite to a fault, even to the chronically aggrieved. Heck I wouldn’t have had one tenth the patience, even if I had the ability!). As far as The saker is concerned, the increased traffic is a blessing, but also a curse, as we all know (or guess).
BTW, I am reminded of a blogger (Russian speaking again) who used to post those incredibly detailed, up to date maps of the battlegrounds. Forgot the name now, but i recall I saw a reference in Colonel Cassad, I believe, that he was asked by the high and mighty to stop (likely Russian monkey monks), in the interest of not providing too much fodder to ‘the other side” as well as useful information.
Something like this could have happened to Nightvision too. Way too useful for some intelligence prowlers (who must be lurking around, right?) and also way easy to use as fodder for “fake news/counter PR” by the Ukies, or even as sign posts for eg, what to look for in the battlefield tactics next. I just had a look at two of his last posts, and frankly, realized there was quite a bit to learn there, by them who may be somewhat strategy/tactics deficient, possibly even desperate, but are also way too western resource rich.
Perhaps some day we’ll find out, right?
Great post, Merlin2!
We should really be grateful for what we get, for free, and not take it for granted.
Yeah, what’s with all those WWI era hypersonic missiles, tanks, rocket artillery, helos, and jet fighters? I mean really, you’d think the Russians would have advanced just a little since 1919.
I can’t believe it FINALLY! Senator Richard Black. My new hero! I will be sending his entire interview to all the people that I have being trying to tell the truth to since Feb 2022. Maybe there is hope…
https://odysee.com/Harley—Senator-Black:57a7be8e17c0dd0dcbf854dab8a60aa98302de69
Sorry to disappoint you.
Richard Black is retired, and the load of wise retired high level elderly politicians and bureaucrats “speaking out” are legio and they have had no influence whatsoever in top circles.
Black is like the old Rand Paul, talk talk talk all the right things, but nothing done. Im personally more for types like Kennedy Jr. and his Children’s Defence. He makes a good job.
On the contrary: RFK, Jr., does a great job but mostly by talking and writing. To “get things done” in Washington is very hard, and no single person can do it. It is necessary to make alliances and trade favourrs – in other words, to get one’s hands dirty. Presently one is covered with filth up to the eyes.
‘Change one person at a time’. The people not Washington have to change. I’m sure we all continually come up against our friends and family that believe the MSM dialogue, Russia is trying to take over, take back the USSR etc etc? Although I have been sending Mersheimer’s talks around for years, Sen Richard Black is more likely to be listened to. I hope…
Unfortunately, I am perplexed as how on the one hand Robert Kennedy can see through the scientific fraud of the Covid/vaccine scam but is unable to see through the climate scare scam. In fact he has become one of the more extreme climate emergency fanatics calling for retribution against those who question the scam (ie “deniers”).
Some of these are real problems AND are used by profiteers and scammers.
For example, human caused climate change IS REAL. It’s just physics.
Industrial civilization HAS warmed the earth at a faster rate than at any point in global history.
Once again its useful to check how much armed forces of every nation and every war have exaggerated enemy losses. It’s pale truth so none should easily fall in love with these numbers, especially when done by bombing and missiles. Ground forces exaggerate too. I have gone true battles from WW1, to WW2, to Vietnam and Jom Kippur and exaggeration is the norm. This SMO hardly makes differences. During WW2 pilots claimed on average 3 times more enemy aircraft than enemy actually lost in air combat. When it comes to ground attack aircraft pilots claiming enemy tanks that exaggeration ratio was normally staggering 1 to 15 (both in Eastern and Western Front). US forces in Vietnam claimed 3 times more NVA/NLF losses than they (also against ARVN) lost (source: Hirschman, Preston & Vu Manh Loi).
One could even in the recent western maps that there has been significant advance against the fortified lines in the Donbass in the last days. Let’s hope for a quick collapse of the line soon when the Russians manage to encircle at least the pointy end of the Ukrainian line.
Adrien Bicquet, on “Sud Radio” this week. An ex commando of the French army convinced by colleagues to go there and went to Ukraine some 16 days to do medical assistance to the population. Organising logisitc of medical centers, making tourniquets and other.
He went to Lwov, Kiev and Butcha.
According to his testimony, numerous war crimes are committed there, and the few foreign journalist are doing jackshit. There are few foreigners in Ukraine doing humanitarian jobs. He saw groups of 5-6 people, mercenaries foreigners, but foreign journalists or doctors not on the frontier but deep in Ukraine – Lwov, Kiev-, he saw at most ten. So few people of foreign origine to spill what he saw directly with his own eyes.
On Butcha, some make videos of artillery strikes on the civilian community and accuse the Russians to attack intentionally civilians. According to him, these people rule out all possibility of these to be accident by untrained Ukrainian artillery men trying to target Russian position. Accidents happens and Ukrainian use small man-armed mortars.
In Butcha, according to him, the corpses were real, but had been moved in order to create propaganda material.
In Lwov, on night, an explosion happened close to his hostel. He went on the place to do his job of secouriste only to discover the place attacked was used to store munitions and weapons coming from the EU. These were stored in private civilian warehouses, in secret, unbeknwon to their owners. Several people died from the Russia airstrike because the warehouses were to a few meters of habitations. He accused mass media in France of not speaking a word of the fact Ukrainian forces use civilian warehouses and civilians as “human shields” from Russians attacks instead of blaming these actions showing poor professionalism. The EU is at least partially guilty of these death by allowing Ukraine to act as such without any sort of pressure to stop these disgusting acts.
Almost anywhere he went he saw people with Azov badges. He interacted with them in order to organise cooperation between army hospitals and civilian humanitarian help to get doctors and medical drugs. He had a bit of Russian-Ukrainian language skills. These people laughed at him and joked between themselves like you I joke at work next to the coffe machine. But they joked by speaking of what they would do if the found a jew or a black. And it wasn’t pink.
But worse than all of that. He saw them torturing and killing Pow. In civilian small cars (berlingots ir camionnettes, in French), they brought Russians prisonners in warehouses by groups of three. At each batch, they would ask who was the officer. In case the soldiers didn’t responded, they would shot them to the knee and let them bleed until they answered or die. If they spoke or told they were the officer, the officer was shot dead on the spot.
Adrien Bicquet, at his last day, was kidnapped by military men. They searched everything he had, what was on his phone, if he had photo or anything. After 10 hours they allowed him to leave as they found nothing and his testimony was proved true after they interrogated eyewitnesses.
Azov is everywhere in Ukraine. He estimates them to be some 20 000 men dispersed in all the country (as political commissar?).
The French ministry of foreign affairs exfiltred him to Slovakia, then Poland before coming back to France.
He spoke of all of that a long hour on radio, “Sud Radio”, insisting he had proofs of what he said, especially the last part I mentioned.
I hope that the tribunal charged to judge and reveal all, the crimes on the Ukrainian side will allow people as Valerie Burgaud (French journalist who went in Donbass in 2014 then 2021 to see and show what really happened there, and was boycotted by all mass media in return in France) and Adrien Bicquet to bring their testimony. At least for History sake, to prove some among the Europeans tried to show us what happened, and were condemned for speaking the truth.
And don’t forget Anne-Laure Bonnel who has been informing from within the Donbass for many years now.
“At least for History sake, to prove some among the Europeans tried to show us what happened, and were condemned for speaking the truth.”
For History sake?
Based just on this and many many other such recent incidents of the truth being forcefully and coldheartedly drowned like a sack of unwanted kittens in favor of the “official narrative”, why would one think that ANY of recorded History is even remotely close to what actually happened?
It should be made clear that in the video, Senator Richard Black expresses displeasure with the Ukraine “proxy” war and the overall push to squeeze Russia. Also, he is critical of the “Davos Boys” and describes them as being a group of about 1000 oligarchs who hold the actual levers of power in the world and decide where and when wars will take place.
To Alan, et al. This 1000 oligarchs are playing nuclear russian roulette with humanity. Cheers!
Here are some historical remarks about the Soviet military operation in Afghanistan. There are some interesting similiarities to the Russian SMO in the Ukraine. I, for one, did not know that the Soviet Union was also operating with a very limited number of forces in Afghanistan, even less than Russia has commited now in the Ukraine. Very interesting and Russia has learned immensively from the Afghanistan war and is acting much more carefully and decisive in the Ukraine today. Bravo, and bad news for NATO.
“Several stark realities immediately emerge which place the Afghan War in proper perspective and permit its proper assessment in the context of Soviet military, political, and social development. First, although violent and destructive, the war was a limited one, in particular, in comparison with other notable recent local wars. Its ferocity and decisiveness did not ~natch that of the series of short Arab-Israeli wars which scarred the Cold War years. It lacked the well-defined, large-scale military operations of the Korean War and the well-defined political arrangements that terminated that war. It also differed significantly from the oft-compared U.S. war in Vietnam. In Vietnam, American military strength rose to over 500,000 troops and the Americans resorted to many divisional and multi-divisional operations. By comparison, in Afghanistan, a region five times the size of Vietnam, Soviet strength varied from 90-104,000 troops. The Soviet’s five divisions, four separate brigades and four separate regiments, and smaller support units of the 40th Army strained to provide security for the 21 provincial centers and few industrial and economic installations and were hard-pressed to extend this security to the thousands of villages, hundred of miles of communications routes, and key terrain features that punctuated and spanned that vast region.”
“As a result of these twin military challenges, the Soviets formulated new concepts for waging war in non-linear fashion, suited to operating on battlefields dominated by more lethal high-precision weapons. This new non-linear battlefield required the abandonment of traditional operational and tactical formations, a redefinition of traditional echelonment concepts, and a wholesale reorganization of formations and units to emphasize combat flexibility and, hence, survivability.”
“Soviet dead and missing in Afghanistan amounted to almost 15,000 troops, a modest percent of the 642,000 Soviets who served during the ten-year war. And the dead tell no tales at home. Far more telling were the 469,685 casualties, fully 73 percent of the overall force, who ultimately returned home to the Soviet Union.”
“The anticipated short sharp struggle became prolonged as the West watched transfixed, wondering when the Soviet military machine would prevail. In time, the question of prevalence imperceptibly faded, and was replaced by doubts over whether the Soviets would prevail at all. In the end, ironically, even the Soviets could not cope,
and the disease of the Afghan adventure infected Soviet society and the Soviet body politic itself. What began as yet another step in the expansion of Soviet power ended in a welter of systemic institutional self doubt that exposed the corruption within the Soviet system and ultimately brought that system and its parent state to ruin.”
Even the NYSlimes has capitulated with this headline
“Ukraine War’s Geographic Reality: Russia Has Seized Much of the East”
As for the $50B, please note that a big chunk of these funds goes right into the coffers of the US MIC… that’s the one sector that’s always overflowing with cash.
Can it be long before the Times will start running pieces calling for negotiations to end the war? Well, I’m not holding my breath, but it could maybe possibly happen.
I swear these western politicians, elites and policy makers are going to end this world before they accept defeat. They all seem to have a serious messiah complex and are getting more and more unhinged by the day. It’s just unreal that there aren’t any sane people left in the higher echelons of western governments, chancellories and militaries with the balls to say enough is enough and put an end to this headlong rush into chaos. From where i stand it’s like the entire West is at the hands of a death cult with incompetent and degenerate underlings and lobotomised populations ready to sacrifice their own children for god knows what purpose other than delusions. Even my own parents and siblings need heavy reconditioning therapy in a barbe wired reeducation camp. I’d actually happily pay for their treatment myself.
If there was a perfect image to reflect the current western world it would be Francisco Goya’s Kronos Devouring his Son.
The West thinks they’re playing with kids – SURPRISE!
Dear Saker Staff,
Thank you for your effort. But this blog is famous for its objectivity and factual approach.
May I suggest your approach to writing about war is to frivolous. War is a serious subject.
May I also note with respect as a former military officer that it is very clear the summary is written by someone who lacks the requisite miliary experience in analysis and presentation.
No offense intended. I hope you can find someone with suitable experience soon. Otherwise this has information but is more like a frivolous over dramatic summary.
Wow…heck
Maybe you provide analysis of US UK Nato
plans policies…military strategies how they work out.
I keep pointing out that this non-entity Lie Seeker is a low grade Bellingcat operative. Both he and his tag-team of operatives read from the Anglo-Zionist playbook.
And how to spell
This blog is about peace, Stop The War On Russia…..it’s run by volunteers, you are in the wrong bar.
Cheers M
Check Martyanov’s blog link often here.
There is a Russian military specialist link to an American Larry Johnson of the same caliber.
https://sonar21.com/is-ukraine-abandoning-its-military-units/
Warning graphic!
“May I also note with respect as a former military officer that it is very clear the summary is written by someone who lacks the requisite miliary experience in analysis and presentation.”
Why would you think that a military officer would write a better analysis unless they have direct knowledge of what the Russian ministry of war has? Have you read some of the crap being posited by Western officers regarding this war?
I agree. Just having “military experience” does not make for a good analyst. In fact, there are many good analysts on military issues who never served in the military. This comment smacks of concern trolling.
I check in on a YT channel called Perun. He is a ‘good analyst’ however despite purporting to be impartial, has an underlying bias towards Ukr support. While he doesn’t objectively appear to be misleading \ misdirecting his analysis start from certain assumption that skew the outcomes significantly. I’m hoping he does not simply proclaim impartiality in order to deliberately make logical mistakes.
I may have picked a side, but it doesn’t prevent me from observing information objectively.
Sadly, the world is awash with bias and people searching for ‘unbiased analysts’ to tell them in ‘unbiased terms’ what they actually want to hear.
The biggest thing lacking is temporal coherence. If you said something last week that was overtly wrong I don’t want to see the same person blasting forwards with the same things this week. Stop, reassess and reorient. So far I have found practically zero analysts do this.
“Truth” seeker
maybe you should read the title again, it says “sitrep”, not analysis.
Be grateful for what you get, and don’t bring your pathetic complaints here.
The Raytheon defense minister of the U.S.S.A. must be very pleased. $ 40 billion more for Ukrainian “aid” to prolong the special military operations of Russia. Who benefits? Why, the Military Industrial Congressional Complex which Raytheon belongs to. Since their golden calf Afghanistan fiasco ended, leaving $ billions more in weapons behind, the souless, MAMMON worshipping warmongers needed a new revenue stream. Hell awaits you, your money won’t save you, and there will be no one to blame but yourselves.
I don’t understand why they would spend $40 billion on small weapons for Ukraine. They could simply deed over an entire American aircraft carrier battle group with all the associated ships, planes, missiles, etc. and still save money! An aircraft carrier costs between $13 and $18 billion.
Plus, it would be more effective. (I don’t support Ukraine, this is simply an economic argument.)
The precise economic analysis does not correspond. It’s just money laundering. The oligarchs of the City-Wall-Street will keep it, and they will distribute something to the politicians.
They continue to “stick their finger in the eye” to the North American taxpayer.
Here is how I suspect it’ll work. ‘Ukraine’ places an order for say antitank missiles. US MIC spends a billion dollars building the facility while drawing out of the 30 bil fund to accommodate the orders. Ukraine war ends before the factory is complete.
Lend-Lease writes off the ‘Loss’ which was really just a DoD budget increase that was earlier rejected.
They may throw the Ukr troops some aging kit, paid for at full price for the headlines shots. If a few years from now we look back and see that 95%+ of the money went nowhere near Ukr I would not be surprised.
Ta good summary.
“We have to accept that the Ukraine was meant as a new Afghanistan.”
And of course, the Americans did Afghanistan Classic as a brilliant plan to give the Russians their ‘new Vietnam.’
So, America went Neck-Deep into the Big Muddy (thanks Pete Seeger), into the quagmire known as Vietnam. Their brilliant strategic thinking at the time was known as The Domino Theory, which said that if Saigon fell to the evil commies, Honolulu and Los Angeles were sure to follow. Yep, the sheer brilliance boggles the mind.
After they flew out the remaining helicopters with the local quislings hanging from the landing gear, the Americans came up with their next bit of Strategic Brilliance. They would give the Russians their own Vietnam. This is when the Americans overthrew the local Afghan government that actually cared about women’s rights, and started arming the Taliban and Al Qaeda to attack the Soviets in Afghanistan.
This of course let to the falling of the Twin Towers and the attack on the Pentagon by Al Qaeda in September of 2001, so the Americans now duly attacked their former Taliban allies. This led to America’s longest war and scenes in Kabul that showed that practice does not make perfect, at least not in terms of ‘bug-out’ evacuations from collapsing puppet states. Saigon looked rather organized and competent compared to Kabul.
And now, the latest brilliant American strategic plan is to ‘give the Russians their own Afghanistan’ in Ukraine.
Hey, everything has worked out so great up till now, this has to be the brilliant plan to end all brilliant plans.
I wonder what odds a book-maker would give me on someday in the future the radical Ukrainians attack the ‘Freedom Tower’ in NYC that replaced the old Twin Towers that were knocked down by former American allies?
The twin towers were not “knocked down” they disintegrated to fine dust in the space of 9 seconds.
The twin memorial pools occupying exactly the same footprint are actually waste water treatments plants.
“the falling of the Twin Towers and the attack on the Pentagon by Al Qaeda in September of 2001”
Unreal, do you really still believe this fiction?
I hope that the Limey and U$ Marine officers were the first ones killed in that stupid operation.
I hope they were captured and the Russian’s keep it quiet on all official channels, but let the news slowly leak out by the rumor mill that they are being squeezed dry of every bit of knowledge (not by torture, but humane methods which give much better intel).
Imagine the US trying to explain to family back home that they’re not sure if their loved one is alive, or dead, because they cannot reveal that they were actively participating in attacking Russia. No pension payout, no word of whether they’re actually dead, or maybe alive somewhere.
And those two men are 100% responsible for putting their families through that crap.
“You guys have no idea how much damage Russia causes DAILY with air-defense, ballistic, cruise & air-to-ground missiles.”
My opinion: not enough damage. This kind of snail advancing is not suggesting that Ukie defence have collapsed. We have heard these kind of” positive news” time after time but when there seems to be not much more “boots on the ground” it looks like this warfare
could take years.
I agree. I have seen all the Rambo and Terminator films plus the Dirty Dozens, and I have played this Ukraine scenario a 100 times in video games where I did Ukraine in 2 weeks.
Therefore in my professional opinion this snail advancing by the Russians, one step forward and two step back, is an evidence to me that Russia dont have competent high level people in their military. Do it better folks!
Snail advance? Years? Really?
Sure Lave advances slower than a Pyroclast blowout. End result is still grilled.
Thank you for that excellent sitrep .Living in England makes it very difficult to find out what is really happening. We are saturated by Ukraine/Nato propaganda. Of course its all total BS the media is reporting but that ensures that the truth abut the SMO and its context is completely non- existent. Thanks again
To the Russian High Command: Stop bombing/shelling the Azov Steel Works. Bombing and shelling makes the rats hold up in the basements look like the Spartans at Thermopylae as the Western MSM spins it. The US media shows the bombing every day because you Russians are bombing every day. Stop it.
Right now their calculus is that every Tu 22M3 dropping 3,000kg bombs on them instead of their comrades in the open steppes of the Donbass is a contribution to the Ukrainian effort. No media coverage, just silence and pretty soon, the silence removes all the reason for their “holding out” The silence will tell the rats in the basement they no longer matter and the war and world have moved on and no one cares if they hold out for another year or so.
Never seen Leonidas deal with Xerxes?
300 – best 10 moments :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=053AUUF4LGs
Kneeling is bad for the knee. See Darius’s Assassin brigade, and watch the bodies pile up!. NATOstan is the new Persian Empire – just kneel!
In pictures of Azovstal I’ve seen there are roofs of warehouses and building and smokestacks which haven’t been destroyed or much damaged. We’ve been hearing of attacks on it for months but it doesn’t seem to have much effect. Russians are apparently keeping parts of it intact for some reason. Also they were supposed to have run out of food days ago, but I guess releasing all the “civilians” as well as reports of the UN/Red Cross giving food to the fighters gives them longer time.
Do you have a source for reports of the UN/Red Cross giving food to the fighters [holed up in Avostal] ?
That’s big news, if true.
No there is no reliable resource for that. And anyway, the Russians had the humanitarian corridors very well zipped up. What we did see and I cannot yet figure out how reliable, is that there was a route still open, to the side of the water, where these people got limited supplies. I believe this came from Kadryov, but I may be wrong.
The order came from President Putin to “seal” the factory (don’t let the rats out unless they surrender). Whenever there’s been a lull in the bombing — including voluntary ceasefire to allow civilians to be freed — groups of Azov-commanded soldiers are ordered to go out to set up fighting positions, a desperate escape attempt. The Russians then bomb those areas to obliterate the tunnels below and ‘seal’ the escape routes. Orders are orders and the Russian High Command doesn’t care what the Western MSM spins.
Thanks very much, Saker Staff!
Is there any report of a Russian BTG unit coming under heavy fire during a failed crossing of the Severtsy Donets river?
rhe Ukie propaganda machine is posting photos but it’s doubtful if the tanks shown are Russian or Ukrainian
https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1524457825833222144
The Ukrainian army group in the Donbass is protected by two obstacles. In the east are the fortified positions along the line of control built over the last eight years. In the north is the Seversky Donets River. What makes the approach from the north even more difficult is that the southern bank of the river is on high ground, with cliffs and hills overlooking the forested floodplain.
@Suriyak claims that the photos of the destroyed tanks and the destroyed pontoon bridge are from Bilogorovka / Bilohorivka (Білогорівка). I week ago Russians destroyed a similar Ukrainian pontoon bridge somewhere west of Izyum. Two days ago it was claimed that Russians had established a bridgehead in Bilogorovka. The photos show the river flowing north, which would be consistent with Bilogorovka.
Looking around on Google Maps I found an interesting site nearby, Privolnian bridgehead (Привільнянський плацдарм) Memorial park and WW2 memorial is in a hill some 8 km northeast of Bilogorovka. Google Maps has photos of the site that show the high elevation.
I read this on South Front:
The Ukrainian Army advanced along the right bank of the Seversky Donets River and took control of the area north of the Pecheneg reservoir. The further Ukrainian advance towards the town of Volchansk located on the Russian border is expected. At the same time, clashes were reported in the villages of Liptsy and Rubezhnoye in the Kharkiv region.
Beware of using Southfront as a source. It has now become a mouthpiece for the pro-western 5th column
I post this here because it is actual news related to the ongoing conflict , but not related to the action on the ground:
This will be allowed on this occasion. Next time please put off-topic comments in the cafe. Thank you. Mod.
Russia REVEALS ALL in Bombshell BioLabs Briefing – Inside Russia Report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClocWTBIEp8&ab_channel=iEarlGrey
Here you have a coverage about the findings of the investigation of US and EU biological weapon research on Ukranian soil. There have been some hints formerly about this matter in briefings of the Russian MOD.
I repeat the links to the sources of documents used in this briefing so everybody can have copies before Youtube shuts down the video which opens this pandoras box to the public.
“Briefing on the results of the analysis of documents related to the military biological activities of the United States on the territory of Ukraine” :
https://telegra.ph/Briefing-on-the-results-of-the-analysis-of-documents-related-to-the-military-biological-activities-of-the-United-States-on-the-t-05-11
NBCP Briefing Slides:
https://disk.yandex.ru/d/tP_Qu9sRGrJKeA
Full briefing Supporting Documents and Evidence:
https://disk.yandex.ru/d/EmmPxlSNBUtymw
Another good word for the fictional narrative expressed by Western representatives is ‘contrivance’ which is intended to hoodwink the public all down the line. I wonder what they will say when it’s obvious that all is lost and nothing was gained like the protracted US military adventure in Afghanistan. Then, what debacle are they planning for next?
To answer the question: where are we? — Quite simply we are in phase 2, just like Russian MOD has said. This the local phase, the SMO to denazify and demilitarize the Eukraine. However NATO et al also has a say. No one fights alone. I say phase II is local, because this a geopolitical struggle, and for sure, as far as Russia is concerned, China is in on the larger strategy and repercussions. Iran also has an ear. So this local fight evolved out of the 8-year-Donbass situation and the present circumstances have been presented to Russia by NATO/Eukraine strategy of defensive positions hardened over the years that amount basically to trench warfare in the settlements and in the larger cities, using civilians to hide artillery.
Thus you have to fight the war given to you — if the enemy chooses the ground — and in this case NATO/Ukraine has chosen the ground.
In modern warfare, no one loses a war if they have air dominance and superior arms. Except for political reasons. Political reasons do not apply here since Donbass is pro Russia.
So let the carpers carp, Russia is in no position to back down.
Great stuff Staff and thank you!!
Thanks Saker Team.
Harfang67
Typical Europe betrayal, knifing in the back, cheating, and just plain aristocratic dementia, look what happened with oil :
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/european-sanctions-blown-bits-draghi-says-most-gas-importers-have-opened-ruble-accounts
This is all over ria novosti, rt.
Draghi, ex Goldman Sachs Italian Prime Minister, ex ECB chief, just let the Russian cat (banned) out of the bag.
The motor of Europe, Germany and France have apparently let the peripheral trolls like Poland, Bulgaria, hang out to dry.
Jeez, bet that they get NATO, while Berlin and Paris shaft them? This becomes a habit!
So Kiev starts its old tricks with the pipes.
Poland yet again gets screwed. Bulgaria waiting for a Greek LNG terminal.
Suck it up, guys!
Ukraine which means Borderland, just got extended to the 3 Baltics, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Finland, Sweden.
Another name is No Mans Land. (Not DMZ, bristling with Raytheon gadgets).
It is the economy, stupid.
What to do ?
Simple, join the BRI – THAT is the economy, stupids!
The War in Ukraine also needs to be addressed in its more localized aspects, beyond its macro context of yet another attempt by Imperium to subjugate Russia.
For the Donbas People’s Republics this is a War of Liberation. This is why they need to have a decisive military role.
For years they have been mostly on the defensive, now they can count on effective Russian participation in the fighting.
No nation, and not even one of us, is truly free if it has not won its freedom by its own means.
The US had French support in 1776, the Union had Russian support in 1863, no nation goes it alone.
It is a natural prerogative for free nation states to align on principle.
Free to cooperate, like the BRI illustrates.
Empire cannot prevail against 4 great nation states, Russia, China, USA, India taking decisive development action.
What is the significance of Snake Island? It is only a tiny island that can be wiped out in seconds. Why would any military personnel be stationed there… unless there is a fortified underground network?
Control of Snake Island enables Russia to interdict NATO supplies flown in from Romania. So it’s very crucial and well worth it at the cost of dead/captured NATO officers and precious helicopters.
Today’s SitRep from:
Voenkor Kitten Z
Military expert Boris Rozhin with a brief summary of the results of the operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine at 23.00 on May 11, 2022, especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Z @voenkorKotenok channel :
1.
Mariupol.
The unhurried assault on Azovstal continues. Having lost waste heaps, the enemy continues to hold key buildings on the territory of the plant, which are subjected to heavy air and artillery strikes, which leads to an increase in losses.
2.
Zaporozhye.
On the line Kamenskoye-Orekhov-Gulyaipole without changes. There is also no significant progress on the Gulyaipole-Velikaya Novoselovka line.
3.
Carbon.
On the Novomikhailovka-Ugledar-Velikaya Novoselovka line, no changes were made. Heavy fighting is noted in the Novomikhailovka area.
4.
Marinka.
There is no significant progress in the village. Fights, as before, are going on in the area of the waste heap.
5.
Avdiivka.
Fighting continues near the Avdeevka-Konstantinovka highway. It is reported about the undermining of the dam by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to impede the advance of the advancing troops. There are also battles near Novobakhmutovka and in the Troitsky area.
6.
LPR.
After the capture of Popasnaya, the enemy’s defenses were probed in the direction of Artemovsk. Fighting continues in the area of Toshkovka and Voevodovka. The enemy continues to be pushed back from Rubizhne. There are also heavy battles in the area of Belogorovka, where there is a threat to the communications of the Severodonetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Both sides are suffering serious losses. Nevertheless, the risks of encirclement of a part of the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are growing.
7.
Raisin.
Heavy fighting continues in the area of Kurulka and Pashkovo, as well as at Velikaya Kamyshevakha. Near Yampol, the enemy suffered heavy losses and was forced to withdraw. Troops are approaching Krasny Liman from the northwest. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hastily transfers reserves here to support the sagging front.
8.
Kharkov.
The enemy continues to attack in the direction of Liptsy and Kazachya Lopan, intending to push the Russian troops further from Kharkov. There is also an advance from Stary Saltov in the direction of Ternovaya, in the area where fighting is taking place. It is obvious that reinforcement of the grouping is required in the Kharkov direction. The approach of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the borders increases the threat of shelling of settlements on the territory of the Russian Federation. It will be problematic to suppress these attacks without control of the north of the Kharkiv region.
9.
Nikolaev.
No significant changes in both the Nikolaevsky and Nikopol directions. Fights are positional in nature.
10.
Odessa.
No significant changes. The enemy stopped trying to land on Zmeiny Island, having suffered serious losses. According to some sources, foreign military advisers were among those killed on Zmein. Plans to take Serpentine by May 9 failed.
Thanks, this is obviously more granular. The Ukraine side seems to be holding up better than most here will admit. We have to understand that they’ve had years to prepare for precisely this. The RF is clearly has decided not to go to full-scale war but is keeping it an “operation.” There are reasons for this.
The goal of both Russia and China is to show the world a better way. China uses its influence and money to pursue mutually beneficial projects outside China and Russia is showing that it very carefully uses military assets to limit casualties and destruction of infrastructure. That’s the Big Picture–eventually the propaganda organs of the West will have to acknowledge this one hopes.
Not only are they holding up but apparently they are pushing back now near Kharkov and the Russians are withdrawing from some towns there. Many on here laughed at us questioning Russia’s tactics. “When I see Ukrainians counter attacking and taking back territory” Well it’s here and I have been warning the way they are fighting this now is a losing battle and the danger of being pushed all the way back to Russia is real. But I’m just an “armchair general” so what do I know.
Take a look
https://odysee.com/@LandDestroyer:8/post-victory-day-update-for-russian:8
Logistics is the game now, Russia has to reduce Ukrainians ability to fight.
The Russians have gone a long way to doing that by fighting close to its line’s of supply and making Ukraine have to transport its material over a vast distance, these supply lines (rail) have been hit of late (Russia is slow sometimes) but now they are going in the right direction.
The next phase of disruption is to target Ukrainian food storage and road system.
An army marches on its stomach so to disrupt food means transport systems are tied up supplying food instead of arms, according to figures Ukraine has more soldier stomachs to fill.
Also if China is in on the game they should start buying rubles with their store of greenbacks putting more pressure on inflation in the U.S.
Ukrainian forces from western part are lured further and further towards east. Away from protection of big cities. Maimed to try
counteroffensive. After right number of usefull idiots is reached, pincer will close from Belarus, cutting them from the west in cauldron somewhere between Russia and Dniepr. It will be yet another Delbatzevo (on steroids).
Pure definition of insanity.
Ukrainian bombing kills two Russian teenagers in border town. Ukraine’s provocations cause the first fatalities in the Russian population.
What does Imperium intend with this? What does it want to achieve?
In its unrecoverable dementia, Washington’s bureaucrats firmly believe their own propaganda. They assume that it is possible to win a nuclear war.
Although in its senile stage, the USA still has immense military power. But precisely because of this, a strict maintenance routine of its nuclear arsenal is advisable.
Generally speaking, the infrastructure in the USA is not an example of a well-maintained state. Would the nuclear arsenals be different? Perhaps so…
Be that as it may, from provocation to provocation, increasing the number of Russian civilians killed by Ukrainian weapons, what would happen if Russia retaliated by destroying the command centers?
What are the objective conditions of Imperium responding to this by conventional means?
The world we used to live in, the one we were born into, no longer exists. And in its place, there is nothing yet. Will there be?
Regarding the readiness of the US nuclear arsenal you can be assured it’s atrocious. I spent my enlistment stationed at Offutt AFB, SAC headquarters, during the spending spree of the ’80s and the decrepitude in spite of the glamorous public diplomacy and gargantuan budget lines was both apparent and storied. The software commanding nuclear forces was obsolete, with an 8 year upgrade $100 billion(in 1985 dollars) over budget and the major general in charge cashiered in shame, an accountability unheard of in US flag officer relations. The morale of airmen was abysmal, with a few taking solace in Rapture theology(we were agents of prophecy) but otherwise the madness of MAD rendered everyone unmotivated or aberrant. There was a caste system between enlisted and civilian contractors, with the latter being payed 10 to 100 times more while seeming to do nothing with no disciplinary consequence. The insanity of the civilian “leadership” was alienating in the extreme. This factor was one of the key drivers in the end of the Cold War. Offutt AFB, the Vatican City of the US military, had had enough and identified more with Soviet generals than their own compatriots.
The tragedy is that after co-operating with the Soviet military in winding down the natural thing was for the non-psychopathic and functional to move on the greener pastures, leaving time-servers and madmen to replace relatively competent people, the Peter Principle.
The situation today is parallel. Throwing money at a problem that is unsolvable, how to fight a nuclear war without your opponent’s agency rendering your plans completely irrational, doesn’t help morale or the work ethic of the people in nuclear silos or on the flight lines of B 52s. The corruption, graft and insanity of the situation is only heightened with full spectrum propaganda and narcissistic techies. Maintaining readiness with nuclear weapons paradoxically heightens the risk of accidents, so it’s logical to cut corners and slack off to avoid your ef up to end the world.
It is an extremely dangerous situation.
Imperium has become intoxicated with its own fake-news, believing it to be true.
This is where we are now: the reckoning with the objectivity of facts.
What happened to the Nightvision Sitreps?
See my comment above in a reply.
The question was asked many many times over the past week. The Saker staff and amarynth in particular kept replying that they don’t know what happened. No one does. One gets the impression he just — stopped.
Note – he is not the only commenter who suddenly disappeared.
Let me know what you think after you read my [alas, somewhat lengthy] comment.
I am confused. I thought we were told that there were no Russians on the island.
So how could there be a fight between the Russians and the invaders?
It wasn’t hand to hand combat. Obviously. You did see the footage of Russian missile and fighter jet attacks?
Thank you for this information, is needed. Clean and sober assessment without the need for gory details. And yes, without saker here at the moment, we all went to huddle up to A. Martynov blog and channel, let’s thank Saker for the lead!
Perhaps the soldier is just a fan of Death in June? Although that may be an unfortunate phrase in this context as well.
I am really stunned by the news of Russia being pushed back in Kharkiv. I’ve read this on multiple pro-Russian sites as well as seen horrific footage of dead Russian soldiers on the 6PM ABC news. What I don’t understand is why aren’t the Ukrainian positions being carpet bombed? Send in the White Swans. Or send reinforcements. I don’t understand why Russia allows their poor soldiers to get slaughtered.
More on this (Kharkov)
Voenkor Kitten Z
forwarded from
The spy no one writes to
The shelling of a village in the Belgorod region, during which two teenagers, aged 14 and 19, were killed, once again raises the question of strengthening the Kharkov group
. and the communications of the group advancing on the Donbass can be cut.
Initially, the Kharkov direction was one of the weakest groups in terms of numbers and a greatly underestimated threat of resistance.
The Kharkov agglomeration is not only one of the largest in terms of population (second only to Kyiv), but also contains many military and military-industrial facilities.
In the region and Kharkov itself, Avakov’s efforts concentrated equipped and trained detachments of nationalists.
Several fortified objects of the nationalists, based on rest houses, stood right on the border with Russia.
I repeat, it was initially clear that the group did not have sufficient forces to capture the region and the city.
This strengthened the staff’s weak management.
And now, after regrouping and receiving reinforcements, which for two months freely walked (and are still walking) along the Poltava-Kharkov highway, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing in the direction of the Russian border.
This not only makes the prospect of transferring hostilities to Russian territory real, but also jeopardizes the offensive in the Donbass.
Obviously, Kyiv has made a political bet on rapid success in this direction.
And there are reasons for this.
During the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, several settlements have already been taken and the movement of the Russian border continues.
In the occupied territory there is terror against the local population.
There is a growing threat to the communications of the group advancing on the Donbass.
And most importantly – what to do when the Armed Forces of Ukraine come to the very border? (upd. Approached)
Are there ready-made plans for the evacuation of the population, the actions of the authorities in the face of aggression?
The transfer of hostilities to the territory of the Belgorod region automatically disavows all the assurances of the authorities that everything is under control, and there are no reasons to change the current state of affairs.
And of course – this will automatically lead to the introduction of martial law.
We already live in parallel realities – in one, the border regions of Russia are almost daily attacked by Ukraine, in the other, in the version of the Ministry of Defense and Moscow, a successful special operation is going according to plan.
Following the blind course of “everything is going according to plan”, which in reality means ignoring the growing challenges of the operation, can lead to dire political consequences.
Russia’s territorial losses, even temporary ones, will bring an incommensurable reputational blow to the authorities both inside Russia and abroad.
And the death of two teenagers in the Belgorod region, who were killed during the strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, opens the account of the Russian population not only to the military command, whose effective management potential has raised questions since the beginning of the operation, but also to the Kremlin directly.
Ensuring security is a key obligation of the state to its population.
Therefore, this account must be closed as soon as possible.
Yes, it looks like the Kremlin is allowing the Ukrainian forces to make great gains in this region and they are threatening more and more the border of Russia. Something is wrong with Russian leadership and military planners on this front.
Well, let’s see, may be, just may be, we are all still in the fog of war on Kharkiv situation?
https://sonar21.com/the-snake-eaters-get-bitten-on-snake-island-and-other-war-reports/
UKRAINIAN SNAKE EATERS GET A RUSSIAN SNAKE BITE AND OTHER WAR REPORTS
11 May 2022 by Larry Johnson
……I am curious about the Russian’s apparent lack of concern about the Ukrainian military thrust north of Kharkiv. If the Russians were worried about those units being overrun a logical response would be to send reinforcements and concentrate air strikes and artillery in supporting their besieged units. Most of the western military analysts will probably leap to the conclusion that this is another piece of evidence that Russia is militarily incompetent and unable to sustain its forces in the field.
But there is another possible explanation–Russia is employing its own form of Muhammed Ali’s Rope-a-Dope and luring the Ukrainians away from Kharkiv. Once there is distance between the city and the Ukrainian units attacking Russian positions, the Russians can strike in force, eliminate the Ukrainian threat and avoid a bloody battle for the city. Just one other scenario to consider…….
Feint and crush – like the Normans at Hastings – is most likely. I agree with your suggestion.
The other factor is this, right now this is billed as an SMO to confirm the LDPR boundaries in the original administrative boundaries of their respective Oblasts. This limits Putins hands somewhat in terms of how far he can legally go. Allowing Ukrainian troops to set foot on Russian soil allows full mobilization and Casus Belli for a formal declaration of war.
Remember the battle of Bulge in WWII? Kharkov AFU is the modern day Panther spearhead
“I don’t understand why Russia allows their poor soldiers to get slaughtered.”
Let’s see what their explanation is. Before, it was a “faint” but one which left the soldiers in the feint more exposed than others, and thus killed and captured (heroes). If you take a city but don’t leave it well-protected, with the soldiers exposed to being killed in a counterattack, it doesn’t seem fair to the soldiers, who then seem somehow condemned to die or get captured if the enemy decides to counterattack in a big way such as described. The Ukrainians said they were launching this counterattack three or four days ago. I read that in the NYT then. I don’t think soldiers should be sacrificed needlessly. The Soviet army was criticized for doing this by Otto Skorzeny, who was there. He couldn’t understand why large numbers of soldiers were made to move forward to meet a certain death. He admired the fearless soldiers, but not the Generals who ordered that. Why not take a city and protect it well so that it cannot be just taken back, before moving on? Why leave what ends up being a token number of soldiers who will get slaughtered if and when the enemy decides to retake the city? Might as well take them too and leave the city as it was before.
Stalin did not tolerate failures or defeats. He replaced a lot of Generals (went too far and executed some). This replacing of Generals worked for Stalin. The thing is that the guy on top is not necessarily the best one! Easily, the way things go, someone two levels below is the real (military) genius. I think that’s why the Stalin way worked. He proceeded as if looking for the really best one, and of course he found him like that.
Thanks so much staff for this update.
I also found this website helpful in understanding the battle areas. The website author does a good job using maps to detail battle action and drawing implications. He also does a great job showing geographic features of the battle areas – not sure how he does it but it is helpful in understanding the role of rivers and cities/towns with the battle zones. Highly recommended:
https://www.youtube.com/c/DefensePoliticsAsia/videos
Good Sitrep report, some observations:
Senator Richard Black is only a senator in Virginia. He is just giving his opinions. He doesn’t represent the federal government in any way. What he says about Davos shows it. If he were in the U.S. Senate, he would not say it, or he would have to denounce it. He is saying that Davos has control over the United States, deciding on the issue of wars.
“Chinese view:..According to Chinese analysts, the speech was delivered in a “restrained” manner to send a clear signal to the West that Russia will not accept intensified pressure to squeeze Russia’s strategic space, but at the same time showed Putin was leaving some room for negotiation.”
Putin showed no such thing, even though he must be open to (surrender) negotiations. That’s the Chinese wishing for negotiations to happen. “Restrained” would be in the eye of the beholder? It was a very tough speech that portrayed the West as a major threat to Russia, clearly stated when he said that it was clear now why the West had rejected Russia’s security proposals or overtures prior to the war. It is possible that Russia’s bold move is envied by some “radical” quarters in China who in some way pressure by pointing to Taiwan with a military solution. Taiwan is not a military security threat to China; although important, its island value is largely symbolical. So, China may be wishing for a negotiated conclusion to Russia’s war in Ukraine, kind of as it may like to envision any conflict against Taiwan (a quick war of “liberation”, not so big a thing). In whatever it says about Ukraine, it is thinking about Taiwan (at least this kind of sounds like them, doesn’t it?)
“Trying to outshine the Russian 9th military parades by the Ukrainian Snake Island fantasy, was a comical error.”
It was a great error, not a comical error.
You emphasized that the following is nonverified: “…an American marine lieutenant colonel, as well as an English major from the commando brigade of the marine corps, landed on Snake Island together with Ukrainian fighters.”
Time will disprove this.
“With all of the above, and the many testimonies from Ukrainian soldiers that their commanders are just deserting and abandoning them in the field, we may see a quick collapse. What is quick? I don’t know.”
I think a good guess is by the end of August at the latest. Zelensky spoke of “many traitors” about a month ago, prior to so much onslaught. The chances of a military coup are always growing (they don’t get smaller) when the disparities are so big. A division or separation is naturally produced between men on the battlefield engaged in a hopeless battle and politicians like Zelensky, and more if they see him, on May 9, strutting on a Ukrainian street in a way reminiscent of Charles Chaplin in his “The Dictator” movie, but something obscene in this context. Why didn’t Putin march like that? Not done. Churchill? Same answer.
A former French soldier who visited the Ukraine recently has spoken out against the Kiev regime’s war crimes and open use of Nazi fighters:
https://en.news-front.info/2022/05/11/french-ex-military-and-writer-europe-arms-neo-nazis-in-ukraine/
Demobilized French soldier, author of Get Up and Walk Through Science, Adrien Boquet, told the truth about what he saw in Ukraine during his three-week humanitarian mission.
According to Boke, he is shocked by the fact that French TV channels invite people who have not been to Ukraine and do not know anything about what is happening there now as experts.
“Azov fighters are everywhere. With neo-Nazi stripes. It shocks me that Europe is supplying weapons to neo-Nazis. On their uniforms, SS symbols are embroidered everywhere. Not only do they not hide their views. They advertise them. I worked with these people and treated them. They openly say that they are ready to destroy blacks and Jews”, the expert said.
Also, the French military man and writer witnessed the war crimes of Ukrainian militants and their cruelty towards prisoners of war.
“I witnessed how the Ukrainian military shot through the knees of captured Russian soldiers and shot in the head higher-ranking officers.”
At the same time, he confirmed that the UAF militants hide ammunition in residential buildings at night, without even informing the residents, using people as a “human shield”.
Boke, during an interview, Boke also stated with confidence that the incident in Bucha was a staging.
“Bucha is a staging. The bodies of the dead were moved from other places and deliberately placed in such a way as to produce shocking footage”, he stated, noting that many American cameramen are working in Ukraine, who have faked filming from the scene, arranging staging.
In conclusion, Boke assured that he would use his photographs and videos taken during the humanitarian mission as evidence of the crimes of Ukraine.
Is he an honest person? I don’t know.
Thanks Saker Staff! Forward Giant Bear!
Kharkiv pushback is to be expected, you have to understand that Ukraine follow the doctrine of American stratagists of mobile warfare.
You will get these attacks and taking of territory but you will not get the decisive victory as the
Wehrmacht did during WW2.
If the Russians keep attacking supply routes and food convoys then Ukraines ability to mount mobile war will be limited.
If Russian wanted a quick decisive victory then they didn’t start with enough troops or the right attitude of destroying all rail network and road systems.
I don’t like it. Already many reports Ukrainian forces have reached the border. This immediately opens shelling Russian Territory, and hitting Russian Armored Columns inside Russia. If Ukraine wants to enter Russian territory, there will be nothing stopping them. Unlike last time, this will not be just a couple of tanks. This will be a serious incursion and it will very embarrassing for Russia.
If it was some type of “trap” you would expect Russia to be pounding Ukraine with Air Strikes and Artillery night and day, but we don’t see that happening at all. In addition, what are they supposed to counter attack with? There is nothing there. It is not even regular Russian Troops defending these areas, it is the LNDR.
Why is the Russian MOD so bloody obstinate about sending additional troops? I don’t understand it. Now we have officially two civilian deaths as a result of Ukrainian shelling. People in Russia are very angry. It seems like those in Moscow don’t give a damn about the people living along the border areas.
Nobody truly knows except Putin and RUAF leadership but I suspect what they are playing for is just to keep Kharkov/Kharkiv contained with the goal of collapsing the UAF elsewhere thereby increasing the chances of a coup against Zelensky and a negotiated surrender. I don’t believe we are far from that at this point, the UAF leadership is looking at total decimation and they are not as fanatical as Azov/Nazi ideology. UAF doesn’t have much time left at the current tempo of losses elsewhere.
This is actually the best strategy that would save most RUAF lives/casualties as it’s going to be tough job to take Kharkov/Kharkiv.
I agree. A UAF coup against Zelensky would be the best outcome Russia could get. At a stroke it would demolish the Western psyop propaganda. I would love to see the MSM try and spin that one.
You seem to be misinformed, it is the LDNR forces that do the bulk of the ground fighting, they are supported by Russian armour and air.
Should Orcs trespass into Russia proper they will get spanked…..think about it, the best the Orcs can do, like the past eight years, is terrorize and kill civilians. That’s a brave fighting force? If I didn’t know better, the Orcs are so good at terrorizing civilians, I’d lay odds they were trained by Occupation Forces currently terrorizing Palestine.
Cheers M
@ Amarynth et al,
Thank you very much! This is a SitRep!
The presstitute MSM continues their laughable mental diarrhea, having nothing else but fake news.
Here are a few headlines from a Russophobic rag, RawStory.
https://www.rawstory.com/russia-invasion-of-ukraine-2657302405/
Russia is ‘losing and they know it’ after Ukraine’s ‘stunning counterattack’: Retired general
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“…stunning counterattack.” Where at? If anyone can show it to me, please, I’ll be grateful.
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https://www.rawstory.com/putin-notes-left-soldiers-flee/
Retreating Russian soldiers leave behind Putin’s true plans for Ukraine: report
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Breaking News!!
Putin’s true plans for Ukraine found in backpack of retreating Russian soldiers!!!
Any other joke? Please wake me up whenever the plans are published.
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https://www.rawstory.com/russia-sanctions-2657300041/
Leaked Kremlin forecasts show Russia facing economic collapse from sanctions: report
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Yet another leak?
Putin is dying of cancer, Russia’s economy is in shambles, what’s new?
The Kremlin has more holes than a Swiss cheese, it seems.
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Enjoy the……news?
Thanks again for a magnificent SitRep.
LoneWolf
This sitrep does a good job of answering its question of “Where are we?” Perhaps the real question is what the West has planned.
In any case, assuming this is a long war against NATO, the victory or loss will come from the rear. Is enough progress being made on changing the economic structure and, of course, dealing with traitors and those who simply cannot imagine a world not dominated by the West? Some of us have far more confidence in the Russian military than those who call the economic and technological shots inside Russia. The serious mistakes made by Moscow regarding the Ukraine over the last 30 years were not made by the military.
What are the casualty estimates for russian soldiers during the SMO? I got people on a forum I’ve been on for 20 years who are collectively loosing their minds getting sucked in by msm propaganda. Probably a function of vax damage to their brains. I’d like a credible source to throw back at them when they make statements like “in 10 weeks russia has taken more casualties than US forces in the twenty+ years of Iraq and Afghanistan combined.”
Another part of me doesn’t really giva damn how stupid people who used to be reasonable have become. Just want a good slap for them.
In the second of two video segments embedded in the latest by Andrei Martyanov, Scott Ritter states that the “kill ratio” during the first, “unsuccessful” phase of the Russian SMO was 7:1. In other words, for every Russian death, 7 Ukrainian combatants were being killed. He goes on to state that the ratio is now roughly 15:1.
Well to be honest it’s really 0 : 1 cause just like in syria or lybia the numbers
of soldiers the west can use seems to be infinete. They get them from their colonies
from all over the planet and ship them to any battleground.
Another question that would be worth looking into is what do these colonies tell to
the families of the soldiers. Someone should to what the west is doing with the
russian soldiers and expose them where they died so the families know.
Thats why the axis of resistance needs to work much better together to
limit this
On Kharkiv/Kharkov
First, this is the second biggest city in Ukraine and is also the intellectual birthplace of Azov/Nazi ideology within Ukraine. It is heavily fortified and to take it via a direct frontal assault would prove very costly to the RUAF forces. They must be creative in this endeavor, the fact that the Russians are retreating around Kharkov does not mean the RUAF is “losing” it just means it’s not a sector they wish to focus heavily on at the moment. They are rolling in other areas of eastern Ukraine and making good progress. A good move for the Russians is to keep this sector contained and hope they can collapse the Ukrainian army in other places and place their bet on the likely hood of a coup against Zelensky and a negotiated surrender. The possibility of a coup grows every minute against Zelensky with the level of losses the UAF are taking daily. At some point even some of the elite in Ukraine will decide they would rather keep a slice of what they have in Ukraine and work with the Russians, especially the military. They are facing utter destruction as a whole at the moment, with NATO unwilling to get involved with soldiers on the ground(which is the only thing that can save them).
Second, I get the feeling what some people want is for the Russians to surround the city and do a US style carpet bombing/Fallujah style operation where they just pound the city/area into the ground/dust. This is not the way the RUAF forces are operating in Ukraine, the western media wants people to think that but it’s not the case, they are actually being quite careful about what they shell/target. The Russian elite/Putin are playing the long game and they see Kharkov being integrated into an independent republic aligned with Russia or possibly part of Russia in the future, pounding it to dust and destroying it would not help that goal.
Thinking about it this, after seeing the RUAF in action around these towns on Telegram, it makes the U.S military look monstrous in the utter destruction in the middle east. The U.S military would drone strike entire wedding ceremonies/funerals with women and children present to take out just one guy. Just recently they killed that individual in Afghanistan with a number of children from a drone and he just had a couple of water gallons. Say what you will about RUAF but they are not behaving this way as a whole(individual incidents happen but they are not indicative of the whole).
The transvestite dances of Zelensky and presidential advisor Asterovich are like a well-kept secret. The Saker linked Ze’s once, and I have linked it many times since then. The Bitchute dance of the latter is worth millions and is there for free. Would Hitler have fallen if a video like that had existed? I think so (if used, and it would have been used!).
The Saker has indicated that Russia’s PR has been poor. The reaction to the Bucha killings also has been absurd for an innocent party. If you’re innocent of that, you continue to talk about it as if it happened yesterday, no? Better than this is to just say that “many tanks” were hit, to then talk about Bucha even to repeat the same thing as yesterday. Nobody would talk about Bucha more than this other ideal spokesperson. The soldiers are fighting and you are talking. What are you going to talk about! Just common sense: they are fighting and you are showing videos, you are talking about Bucha – you are doing your talking part! Indeed, there is no such organization, let alone it being properly integrated or even understood at all. “I’m a military spokesperson.” And the military force is being accused of terrorism in Bucha. You change the subject? Ukraine has spoken more about Bucha, like the aggrieved party does. “There are more important things to talk about.” That’s their wisdom.
Regarding the Kharkov threat.
A possible explanation for the apparent passivity of the RF. Maybe, just maybe, RF is looking for a real casus belli where Ukraine would cross the border and launch an offensive within Russia. This would bring two advantages :
– whip up patriotic frenzy among Russians
– provide Putin with the legal basis for declaring war (which still hasn’t been done at this point) and would then enable mobilizing more resources.
of course this is just an idea and I cannot exclude that the explanation is more mundane and even that the Russian staff is too passive and lacks foresight. It would be strange, but I have the greatest difficulty in making sense of what happens recently.
“I have the greatest difficulty in making sense of what happens recently.”
That is one of the purposes – you are not alone or “exceptional”.
I don’t think any legal pretext is of any importance at this point.
Ukraine could throw a nuke on a russian city and the west would
still yell “russian agression” when they retaliate.
If russia want’s parts of ukraine or to move in with a bigger army
they should just do it. Cause the limited approach is pointless.
In the western world only the reason russia has not killed of all
ukrainians yet is cause they can’t. They don’t react to the
holding back approach of russia at all. Western write that Putin’s
goal is to destroy ukraine und kill them cause they wanted to be free.
Russia should have taken what they wanted together with crimea
the amount of sanctions and protest would have been the same.
And now it’s the same if russia does not take anything beside
crimea and put dombas under their protection, or if they take
cherson or odessa or everything the reaction will be the same.
“Russia evil – kill russia – sanction russia – everyone who does
business with russia should be punished rawr rawr rawr”
Schmuel Arestovitch, the Baghdad Bob from Kijev, was an actor, however the guy also studied at Uni psychology, specifically psyochology of manipulating mind of people and worked, for some time, for hohols secret service. in 2014 he was a great patriot. Today he is a great globalist and admirer of ISIS methods judging from based on his interviews. I am sure he know perfectly well, as Dr. Goebbels knew, the crucical book of Schmuel Bernays, which is Propaganda.
Quit well, I think, we know frontline. We do not know real lossses of men and material. And lot of other important things. Someteimes one is tempted to believe its a trench war betwen Iran and Iraq 2.0. And this is not good for Russians. Ukie army seems to be an issue for Russians. Btw. The aircraft and helis still being reported as being destroyed every day by Russian, this is are rather odd, as we know that NEARLY all the airforce od the ukies was destroyed at the start of campaign.
As for euroland, it is not pleasant to see, that hohohols are winning hearts and minds of young people through their skill propaganda. Elensky is for them the Greta the great. A cool and smart boy defending freedom of the euroland beating hard eastern hordes of uncivilized mongolians and definitly winning in this. My young progressive libral collegaues in my work are doing charity for hohols to buy them a tank in fact.
For the concern trollers on Kharkov/Kharkiv. For crying in a bucket, do not get your war news from ABC or US sources. Part of this sitrep was about the fantasy that exists there. Do you not get it yet?
The Russian Mod states today in their early report;
So, from this we can make an educated GUESS, but it is still a GUESS, that Russia will handle this via air defense at this stage. I personally don’t think Russia will storm Kharkov/Kharkiv at this stage. But nobody can say if they are waiting for the collapse of Ukie forces or if they simply do not want to put everyone in danger by a stupid face-on attack. What we see is that demilitarization is happening.
The current focus as far as what can be determined is still on collapsing the line of control and getting control over the whole of the Donbass region. For the 2nd day, more strikes into the Donbass regions:
Here is a report: https://t.me/rtnews/24425
And yes, you will find it on other channels like bitchute as well. Bear in mind we use mostly Telegram resources because it can be seen right through the world and there is no throttling. Many of the other resources cannot be watched everywhere.
From Intel Slava and this makes absolute sense for those who watch:
For those who pay attention, enough has been said about Popasnaya, high ground, open firing lines and from there the Russian troops will cause mayhem and make that line collapse.
War is a terrible thing. Soldiers die. Civilians die. Civilians become refugees and have to flee. The Mayor of Nikolaev, Alexander Senkevich urged residents of Nikolaev to evacuate from the city. (See, the mayor, his name and the city – clear information and there has been fighting). And from this, we can then make an educated guess – BUT it is still a GUESS – that this city is up for complete denazification and for demilitarization.
On the side of the gas and the oil, a total of twenty European companies have opened accounts, and another 14 clients have requested the documents required to open them.
Here is also an interesting piece. We all know the words now … military/technical. From the Russian MFA – Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps – including military-technical – to eliminate any threats posed by the entry of Finland and Sweden to NATO (Russian Foreign Ministry)
There was a slight slowdown at the time of the Victory celebrations. That is now over.
For detail, read the Readovka reports – we have found those to be very accurate in the minutae.
“I personally don’t think Russia will storm Kharkov/Kharkiv at this stage.” I agree. Larry Johnson also makes a point that any Russian “retreat” could be an effort to draw the Ukrainian forces out of the city, in to the open. Based on Russia’s outstanding planning so far, I would say that is a good guess.
Hohols made a land grab in the north, near the border with Russia. Are they allowed to dig out trenches there, is that only infantry or what units are coming? I think it is important to know.
In my country Czech oligarchs and big industrialists slowly starts saying openly it is too absurd to stop Russians imports, namely gas, oil, fertilizers and other items as it will be the collaps of economy, and agriculture too, first dying children and old people.
Today CNN Prima News, Czechia, the correspondent reports some interesting things from UA and it was not censored, big surprise, as there is a Law of Order and strict censhorship plus punishments in Czechia with any national guest to the country from UA, often with AA Kijev car plate, being ubermensch. The reporter has noticed a lot of men in army, not in teroborana, are rather old and food for the fighting army has often been managed and delivered by volunteers, not by the Hohols army itself. Well, I understand this, as all Hohols POWs say I was a cook.
Btw. Prague has problems with gypsies, war refugees from around Uzhorod that is a UA border town with Slovakia.
Russia just Make sure that the SNAKES in the Steel plant don’t dig a hole to escape. Snakes have been known to dig long tunnels and slither out.
Plenty of commenters criticize the MSM coverage. It’s often biased, but this article (link) shows it can be unbiased too. The MSM coverage has not been this good in a long time (years). From the beginning of the controversy, they gave fair coverage to Russia’s most important points. This week Russia informed that it had almost complete control of the Donbass. The New York Times accepted the information, and it was a front-page headline. This report of the New York Times spurred television discussions of the subject. It had another front-page article the same day which was critical of the Biden administration for understating the meaning of weapons deliveries. Below is a Reuters unbiased report.
Russia warns West over risk of conflict with NATO
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-warns-west-over-risk-of-conflict-with-nato/ar-AAXaG7a?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=00141da006f444acf6b7f402ca4bba6e
No, I am sorry. They are just shilling nuclear action.
– Below is a Reuters unbiased report.
Being 90% factual, like Wikipedia, does not mean narrative is “unbiased”.
Even university education being 90% factual it can still be brainwashing by peer pressure.
To create a consensus is the goal, and facts works fine for thart
Here’s a testimony from a French volunteer on the war crimes committed by the nazis in Ukraine. The video is in French with French subtitles that can be translated to English.
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French volunteer spoke about Nazi war crimes in Ukraine
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Despite the unprecedented media blockade that has been created in European countries regarding the coverage of events taking place in Ukraine, sprouts of truth still sometimes break through this informational concrete.
A clear example of this was the interview of the demobilized French military Adrien Boke , which he gave on May 10 to the French SUD Radio.
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“I take full responsibility for what I say. While in Ukraine, I witnessed war crimes. All of them were committed by the Ukrainian army. But in France we don’t talk about it,” he said.
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Подробнее: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2022/05/11/francuzskiy-volonter-rasskazal-o-voennyh-prestupleniyah-nacistov-na-ukraine
Russia should hit western ukraine hard and hard. Ask if they want more and hit them harder. Destroy anything that have to do with their leaders including terminating these leaders.
People in power in ukraine are mentally useless. It’s like talking to a wall when dealing with them; dollars or better put money is their oxygen and the death of their citizens is like blood running through their veins. In other words these so called leaders will destroy and kill their people for anything money.
(This is a negative assessment from Israel)
Voenkor Kitten Z
forwarded from
Lobaev Z
In continuation of the topic of summing up the results of two months of the operation by foreign experts.
Here an Israeli expert (in his case, this word has no abusive meaning) David Gendelman gave a 40-minute interview to the UKRLIFE TV channel. We collect the most important things:
1) Much more was expected from Russia. Actions on all fronts (according to David) can be explained solely by the expectation that Ukrainian defenses will collapse after the first blows. Otherwise, it looks strange – often, the Russian Federation did not even have a quantitative superiority in personnel in the direction of the main strikes. Most likely, Russia really counted on the fact that the front of the enemy would fall apart.
2) The problems of the Russian army are known and traditional – the lack of initiative on the ground, excessive centralization, problems with logistics, supplies. After the Chechen wars, Russia had the experience of a quick war in Ossetia, and apparently now they are trying to do something similar on a large scale.
This war did not show any new problems for the Russian army, but all the old problems surfaced. And there are doubts that Russia is ready for a long-term campaign.
3) Comparable opponents are fighting in Ukraine, capable of central planning and at a comparable technological level. This is not Afghanistan, this is not Iraq.
4) Russia does not have the strength to quickly clear the occupied territories. The problem is the physical size of Ukraine.
5) In general, no one expected such intense resistance from Ukraine, contrary to the forecasts of many Western experts. Russia’s main advantage is that Ukraine spreads its forces along the front, and Russia can choose where to attack in a limited way. Also, Russia has a significant advantage in aviation and in the amount of artillery.
6) A war of attrition is an unusual situation for Russia. For serious changes at the front, political decisions are needed. We need mobilization, albeit not total, but open, but this is a political decision, but for now they manage with volunteers. Although the military registration and enlistment offices have already expanded campaigning among the reservists, but BARS and 10-20 thousand mobilized people will not change the picture. The existing reserves can only be used for support and rotation, this is useful, but this will not fundamentally change the picture.
7) Russia has a lot of outdated equipment, but it may well fight. In general, on such a scale, technical superiority and “star wars” cease to be decisive.
8) Serdyukov’s reforms partially modernized the army, under Shoigu some of the reforms of his predecessor rolled back. Russia did not have a large number of new breakthrough types of weapons. There is a problem with arming with modern weapons, and the matter is not only in corruption and misappropriation of funds, but also in the discrepancy between the military budget and the size of the Russian army.
9) The territory of Ukraine and the army of Ukraine are simply too big, and size matters. Against conditional Georgia, forces would be enough with a large margin, but with Ukraine the situation is completely different. And again, the question is in quantity: the density per kilometer of the front is important, and not the modern single wunderwaffe.
10) in terms of mobilization potential, the difference between Russia and Ukraine is not so radical. Russia may have the second army in the world, but it has contacted a very large enemy over a vast territory. But all the positive qualities of the Russian army are leveled by the number of APU – Russia has a lot of high-precision weapons, but not enough to hit so many targets.
11) The supply of even obsolete Western equipment under Lend-Lease will be of critical importance for Ukraine, given that most of their own production facilities have been destroyed.
https://youtu.be/ZV6OGEH522o
YouTube
Israeli military expert David Gendelman discussed the course of the war in Ukraine and shared his analysis of the potential of the Russian army on his Ukrlife.TV broadcast.
The interview was conducted by Lyudmila Nemirya.
This line is attention grabbing: “The territory of Ukraine and the army of Ukraine are simply too big, and size matters.” Germany conquered it. Later mostly Russians reconquered it. It’s a whole lot of land that Putin said might “lose its statehood.”
That expert should know that this conflict is like the conflict between a cat and a mouse. Russia said that the weapons deliveries will cause more destruction but won’t change the outcome. Russia has more than a million soldiers.
“The supply of even obsolete Western equipment under Lend-Lease will be of critical importance for Ukraine, given that most of their own production facilities have been destroyed.”
They need obsolete Western equipment – what do you know? That’s what will change the outcome. If that’s an expert…
“In general, no one expected such intense resistance from Ukraine, contrary to the forecasts of many Western experts.”
The Donbass has been almost taken by the Russians completely (NYT report too). Will the whole Ukrainian army go there to recover that territory? The country would become smaller then. Otherwise, the Donbass is gone forever.
To me, he sounds more like a salesman than an expert. Russia could lose with that expert in command, right?
If you read the US Lend-Lease text, it is not meant solely for Ukies, but for other east Europe countries too that means more and more escalation. Poland, Rumania, Moldova?
They need to learn to interpret the silences of Putin. They are more worrisome than what he says.
Hahaha…an armchair military strategist interviewed by a Ukrainian member of MNM, and trolled by a paid propagandist.
“The supply of even obsolete Western equipment under Lend-Lease will be of critical importance”. (Israeli military expert)
Other “analysts” say “the outcome of fighting now is riding on the accuracy, quantity and the striking power of long-range weapons. Ukraine is pleading for more.” -NYT (5/12/22)
They are not pleading for obsolete Western equipment.
Russian Bear,
My memory fails me. Have you ever posted a positive report?
Many, many thanks to The Saker Staff for this great report!
A cold steel rain, or rather a hot steel rain but I’m thinking about the song.
Activity is markedly picking up. Its now the time to pay attention. I expected something like this after Victory Day celebrations.
So, keep an eye on Geroman, who is mapping as we go!
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1524738248752439296
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1524738563039977472
Remember, we expected a move south from Popasnaya – this will just show you that we cannot second guess the Russian Mod. Now being called the allied forces, they’re moving north
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1524739196962889728
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1524739618691813376
This is about what I can do today. Keep your eyes open and report accurately please.
Readovka has no updated report out at the last time I checked. Keep your eyes on that!
The Russian Mod? Is Gerasimov or Shoigu so confident that they have taken up modding on this site for relaxation? LOL. :-). [I know you meant Russian MoD.}
Whats about the river crossing incident? Any confirmation from russian side? Complete BTG with 73 combat vehicles los!? I mean If the Ukrainians manage to position their artillery within firing range of a river crossing, Russian air superiority is not worth much.
We ve learned always keep Distance and camouflage, drive over individually and immediately fan out again. They couldn’t even escape because they were all in each other’s way.
If you stick to that, a raid like this only gets 2-5 vehicles and the bridge. Defeat, but not a catastrophe
That does not depend on the equipment used, but on the intelligence of the officers. Such river crossing with destroyed equipment is screaming for a catastrophe.
Well if the Orcs claim they did it…..and the RF MOD say nothing……make your own deduction. Looking at the aerial pics quite the mess for someone …
Cheers M
This is the type of patriotic feeling that Russia should encourage:
Little Lesha, meanwhile, imperceptibly for everyone, has become a symbol of the future of Russia.
The last generations of Russian youth described the vision of their future in foreign words, difficult to pronounce in Russian. All sorts of beauty bloggers, life coaches and trend hunters. The military, doctors and teachers no longer seemed to be needed, but everyone dreamed of being YouTube, Instagram and TikTok stars.
And here, in the midst of the war, a little first-grader Lesha appears and says that he wants to be a military man. Of course, the child is still small, and most likely will even have time to change his mind, but the good thing is that there are still many children in Russia who have not been touched by the temptations of a false world.
And Lesha loves his country, Russia, so unfashionably, and wishes her success. While some Russian stars fled abroad at a critical moment, and instill in their children shame and contempt for their homeland.
God grant Lesha, and all other Russian children like him, health and perseverance in order to grow up and remain faithful to the ideals of their youth!
https://t.me/majorselivanov/5287
I’m reminded of this great video with this story:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bp0aDURBEGI
I’ll post the Russian MoD report in a parsed form:
💥High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit
– 4 command posts,
– 38 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration,
– 4 ammunition depots near Soledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic, and
– 1 US-made counter-battery radar station near Kharkov.
– The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 170 nationalists and up to 41 armoured and motor vehicles.
✈️💥Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit
– 45 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration as well as
– 1 fuel depot for Ukrainian military equipment near Vrubovka, Lugansk People’s Republic.
💥Artillery units have hit
– 14 command posts,
– 7 artillery units at firing positions and
– 358 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration.
– In addition, 1 S-300 anti-aircraft missile launcher has been also destroyed near Dolina, Kharkov Region.
💥During the day, air defence means have shot down
– 5 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Glubokoe, Liptsy in Kharkov Region, Aleksandrovka and Donetsk, as well as
– 10 rockets from Smerch MLRS near Polevoe in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
▫️In addition,
– 1 unmanned aerial vehicle has been shot down in the air over Snake Island and
– 3 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles have been intercepted.
Overnight this will happen again, but of course, the targets will be different, and tomorrow, it will be repeated!
Paul Craig Roberts has not changed his formula.
“What peace needed was a quick decisive Russian victory that demonstrated extraordinary military power that completely stopped any further Western provocations of Russia. But the Kremlin was too liberal-minded to do what was neccessary. Consequently the Kremlin made a strategic error, dropped the ball and has failed to protect Russia from provocations that are leading to WW III.”
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/05/12/the-drums-of-war-beat-louder/
It’s not subject to either proof or disproof. It makes even a reader feel guilty for not trusting it.
The original interview with Senator Richard Black from which that 2 minute Twitter post was taken is very rational, level headed and informative, giving a summary of the history leading up to the Russian special operation, and also how the US foreign policy has been affecting the war. All 76 minutes are worth watching:
https://odysee.com/Harley—Senator-Black:57a7be8e17c0dd0dcbf854dab8a60aa98302de69