By Amarynth for the Saker Blog

This will function as an open thread on the SMO in the Ukraine.

To start it off, we look at the early morning Russian Mod Report, in parsed form:

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Ukrainian grouping in Donbass is suffering significant losses in manpower, weapons and military equipment.

During the liberation of Svyatogorsk in Donetsk People’s Republic in three days of fighting alone, Ukrainian troops suffered:

  • losses of over 300 nationalists,
  • six tanks,
  • 5 armoured combat vehicles of various types,
  • 36 field artillery guns and mortars,
  • 4 Grad multiple rocket launchers and
  • over 20 automotive equipment.

High-precision air-based missiles have hit armoured plant near Kharkov, which have been repairing and restoring tanks and other AFU armoured vehicles.

In addition, high-precision air-based missiles have hit

  • 2 command posts, 1
  • 3 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as
  • 1 battery of Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems near Kharkov.
  • 4 weapon and ammunition depots have been destroyed near Malinovka in Kharkov Region, Spornoe in Donetsk People’s Republic and Zvanovka in Lugansk People’s Republic.
  • 1 fuel depot for AFU equipment has been destroyed near Chuhuev, Kharkov Region.

Operational-tactical aviation have hit

  • 63 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of

  • command post of 14th AFU Mechanized Brigade,
  • over 160 nationalists,
  • 8 tanks,
  • 2 Grad multiple rocket launchers,
  • 1 artillery battery,
  • 1 electronic warfare station and
  • 13 vehicles of various purposes.

Russian air defence means have shot down

  • 2 MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force near Snegirevka, Nikolaev Region, as well as
  • 1 Mi-8 helicopter near Belaya Krinitsya, Nikolaev Region.

In addition,

  • 11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Donetsk, Rubtsy, Lozovoe, Krasnorechenskoe, Koroviy Yar, Peski Rad’kovskoe in Donetsk People’s Republic, Izyum, Dergachi in Kharkov Region and Chernobaivka in Kherson Region.
  • 3 Tochka-U missiles and
  • 5 Smerch rockets have been intercepted near Chernobaevka, Kherson Region.

Missile and artillery have hit

  • 68 command posts,
  • 172 AFU artillery positions, including
  • 2 batteries of Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems near Aleksandrovka and Kutuzovka,
  • 1 battery of Uragan MLRS near Kitsevka, Kharkov region, as well as
  • 261 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

▫️The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than

  • 320 nationalists,
  • 4 ammunition depots near Novolenovka in Zaporozhye Region,
  • 9 armoured vehicles,
  • 3 Grad multiple rocket launchers,
  • 15 field artillery and mortars,
  • 14 special vehicles, and
  • Buk-M1 surface-to-air missile launchers near Shelkoplyasy and OSA-AKM in Verhnyaya Roganka in Kharkov Region.

To my count the Ukronazi military manpower losses touches on +- 800 for one day.   I think the Russian MoD is undercounting, in an attempt to be accurate for the day.

Kindly use as open thread.  A lot has happened on the front lines, but you may agree with me that at this pace of attrition, this phase cannot continue on for much longer.  Something has to give.

WHAT’S NEXT

The world after anti-Russian sanctions (not a forecast, it’s reality)

By Dmitry Medvedev

1- A number of global supply chains will collapse and a major logistical crisis could arise, including the collapse of foreign airlines that will be banned from flying over Russian airspace.

2- The energy crisis will deepen in countries that have imposed sanctions on Russian energy supplies, fossil fuel prices will continue to rise, and the development of the digital economy in the world will slow down.

3- There will be an international food crisis, leading to famine in some countries.

4 – A monetary and financial crisis is possible in some countries or groups of countries, combined with undermining of the stability of some national currencies, runaway inflation and the destruction of the legal system protecting private property.

5 – New regional military conflicts will arise where the situation has not been resolved peacefully for many years or where the important interests of major international players are ignored.

6 – Terrorists, who believe that the Western authorities’ attention is now distracted by the confrontation with Russia, will become more active.

7 – New epidemics will break out, caused by a lack of international cooperation on health and epidemiological issues or caused by the proven use of biological weapons.

8 – International institutions, which have not proved their effectiveness in resolving the situation in Ukraine, such as the Council of Europe, will lose their importance.

9 – New international alliances will be formed, based on Anglo-Saxon criteria that are pragmatic rather than ideological.

10 – As a result, a new security architecture is being created which recognises:
(a) the weakness of Western concepts of international relations such as “rules-based order” and other meaningless Western rubbish;
(b) the collapse of the idea of an America-centric world;
(c) the existence of internationally respected interests of those countries in sharp conflict with the Western world.

In the following post Medwedev says that all of this is not just a forecast, but is a process already underway.