By Nightvision for the Saker Blog
We start with the biggest scoop today. We finally have high level confirmation from Russian officials that NATO instructors and foreign fighters are in fact trapped in Mariupol.
Firstly Russian State Duma member Adam Delimkhanov in an interview with RT has openly stated he estimates around 100 such foreigners there, and that they are in communication with them and the rumors are true that they are trying to negotiate a release and escape corridor. It seems to imply all those Macron rumors were accurate.
Video: https://www.bitchute.com/video/72MTe5On9t9Y/
Igor Konashenkov on the other hand, also confirms that significant numbers of foreign fighters are known to be there because Russia can hear them crying in over 6 different languages in intercepted radio calls.
Not to mention there’s now a report that they tried to break through the blockade with a ship to rescue them (ran out of helicopters I guess?) https://sputniknews.com/20220409/ukrainian-cargo-ship-tried-to-break-through-to-russian-black-sea-fleet-blocking-mariupol-port-mod-1094624584.html
So this is no longer the realm of speculation and fantasy.
Now about yesterday’s Kramatorsk strike – it had multiple objectives all of which we foresaw in the previous SitReps when I specifically said that Ukraine was now shifting to a psychological and terror war exclusively, because it cannot win a conventional one.
The goals were: to terrorize civilians into not fleeing so they can be used as human shields in the upcoming showdown in Kramatorsk, to blame the falseflag on Russia for the same reasons as in the ‘Bucha massacre’ to continue extorting NATO sympathy and funds.
They cleverly did it right after Russia had announced the new measure of strikes against railyards, because they knew it would appear ostensibly as just the latest Russian strike targeting that category of infrastructure. But of course they messed up when Arestovych and their own side first reported it as a Russian Iskander, not knowing that a Tochka shell would be discovered.
Once again, this is proof of something else we wrote two sitreps ago when we said that Ukraine was forced to do the Bucha massacre to try and stem the momentum behind the soon-to-be liberation of Mariupol, and that the falseflag was in fact evidence that Mariupol was ready to fall since they must have known that the large 501st marine battalion was getting ready to surrender any moment.
Similarly here, rumors continue to mount that Phase 2 is very close to kicking off, or has already kicked off in part (as reported by those like Gonzalo Lira, etc) and so again Ukraine badly needed something to stem the coming momentum, and to make sure civilians don’t flee as they are the UAF’s only hope, as human shields. We also wrote a couple sitreps ago that the frequency and intensity/seriousness of the falseflags will only increase from here on out, and this appears to already be happening. Clearly the civilian population has been deemed completely expendable by the UAF.
There are reports that Russia is still keeping a decent-sized force (1/3 of what was previously there) north of Kiev (on Belarus side). If true, this would effectively continue to pin UAF forces around Kiev, not allowing them to fully redeploy to Donbass or elsewhere (perhaps why Zelensky only requested 15,000 to be sent, and not the whole force in the area, which some have estimated anywhere in the 50k – 70k range or more). The reason being of course that if they were to leave Kiev undefended, the much faster Russian maneuver force could rapidly blitz in under their noses and capture Kiev.
Now the Pentagon is stating that Russia has positioned 40 BTGs around the Donbass, adding a new 10,000 troop infusion, and Phase 2 is ready to kick off any moment. This by the way is a confirmation of the new reality where they have backtracked on the original “180 BTGs” just as I’ve written previously, and are now using more realistic numbers. This is further evidence that Russia is not utilizing the amount of troops in theater as they wanted us to believe.
Now on this topic, as Phase 2 is set to begin, let’s talk tactics or ‘Why the UAF Is About To Get Smashed’.
One of the most important takeaways from the first phase of this conflict has been that the UAF stands no chance whatsoever against Russian forces in a straight up head-on, full frontal fight. To understand the reasons for why that is, you must understand the basic structure and functions of the Russian units, including the infamous BTG (battalion tactical group). Without going into too much detail, just know that unlike U.S. forces which have some of the larger force coefficients like artillery, rockets etc more on the Corps level, the Russian units have them down to the battalion level, allowing faster maneuvering forces to have their own massive firepower capabilities and direct decision making.
But besides this ability to outmaneuver an equivalent Ukrainian force with far more firepower, just understand that the Russian BTG comes equipped with large precision artillery capabilities, in the form of 2S19 Msta for the more elite groupings. Ukraine’s artillery has been surprisingly well implemented, but it is still no match for a full Russian artillery unit equipped with its own detachment of spotters, counter-battery systems, scouts and the like. In general, the Russian units will have more fires(artillery) density per engagement, and at greater ranges with better accuracy differentials.
There has not been a single recorded Ukrainian victory in a full head-on fight, with the arguable exception of some of the engagements in the Bucha/Kiev area where we saw a column or two of Russian light cavalry forces take decent losses and retreat, but these were light VDV detachments with their own special objectives, not much protection, etc., and they took risky chances which led to ambushes.
But the majority of large scale engagements in these modern peer-to-peer conflicts mostly consist of medium to long range artillery duels. The only time tank/mechanized forces typically come into play is during transport or repositioning/redeployment, or once the artillery has softened the defense enough—or more commonly has ‘routed’ them—the other forces will begin moving in to finish them off.
The ONLY way the UAF has scored any recorded successes at all so far is via asymmetric and mostly ambush operations on MOVING columns. The reasons for this are many, such as the fact that U.S. feeds satellite intel to UAF forces to alert them of exactly where larger RF columns are moving and where they’re likely headed. This allows UAF forces to setup ambushes in depth at forward areas. The secret to how they do this is via RTP (Registered Target Point). The concept is very simple: a UAF artillery unit will shoot at a road with spotters watching and feeding them corrections until the artillery ‘solution’ is perfectly honed onto the center of the road. That artillery will then be covered with camo. Then as the Russian convoy passes that RTP mark, a hidden spotter will give the signal by radio and the UAF artillery will score instant perfect accuracy kills.
This is all fine and good. But when two, let’s just say equally-sized, forces do a classic position battle where they have taken their positions, dug in, both are aware of each other’s dispositions more or less with an accuracy dependent on the effectiveness of their ISR scouts and drone surveillance teams, etc. In this type of direct face off akin to a classic confrontation between two forces like in the days of Napoleon, the Russian force will always handily destroy the Ukrainian force 10 times out of 10 with minimal losses to itself, as all the advantage in this setup goes to the Russian side. As mentioned before, the reasons for this are simple:
- Russia can bring a higher density of artillery firepower to bear – more units, higher quantity across the contact line, period.
- Though Ukrainian units are no slouches (particularly the elite in Donbass) and should be commended for their skill, they are still inferior in training and capability compared to RF artillery troops. It may not even be a huge edge, but it’s an edge nonetheless. Sure they have the experience edge, but the RF artillerymen are highly trained, and are already gaining tons of valuable experience on the fly – they learn fast.
- The RF equipment is far superior. We’re talking highly modern Msta 2S19s (superior to ANY artillery unit even in the U.S. arsenal, a fire rate 4-5 times higher than U.S.’s M109 equivalent, with greater range, etc.) with pinpoint accuracy, longer ranges, higher RPM (~10rpm to Ukraine’s maybe 3-4), better sights and optics, better surveillance capabilities as Ukraine mostly uses prosumer DJI drones which can be good for shortrange tactical stuff, but have limited range, duration, and optics compared to Russian Orlan-10s and the like. And don’t get me started on the legendary Krasnopol ammunition which the 2S19s can and HAVE been firing in Ukraine, which is a laser guided artillery munition that flies exactly to its pinpointed, laser-designated (by Orlan-10, etc) target, even if the target is moving. And keep in mind, in most cases the UAF won’t even have any 2S3 Akatsiyas or Gvozdikas or 2S7 Peonies anymore, but rather will use either BM-21 Grad or legacy Soviet towed artillery like D-30 howitzers or equivalent (the latter being far inferior for variety of reasons).
So in short, Russia can bring to bear firepower that is more accurate, longer range, faster shooting, and in greater number, all while having more ammo/fuel for it, etc. So what is the big point I’m making with all this. It is the following:
The ‘maneuver war’ which gave Ukraine certain ambush opportunities seems to be coming to an end. Russia is concentrating troops for the ‘final battle’ of Donbass, which will be a conventional, frontal war fought in the manner described above, with massive artillery fires opening the salvos and mechanized forces moving in to attrition off the routers. The major problem for Ukraine this presents is, this may be survivable when you have space to retreat and can continue falling back, away from the massive artillery advantage. But when the noose continues to close on the cauldron, the UAF forces will find themselves in a situation of continual concentration. They will have a smaller and smaller area for the troops to consolidate into, with no room for maneuver. And this area will have an increasing number of massive artillery firepower bearing down on it that will outgun and outrange them exponentially. There will be no more asymmetric cheap shots and ambush strikes because Russian forces will not be roaming in rapid, exposed columns on highways, but rather defensively postured with protected flanks, etc, dug in and inching forward one protected-in-depth section at a time. In short, this will be an absolute killzone onto the UAF troops.
We have already had a taste of this in what I’d call the first engagement of Phase 2, even if it hasn’t officially kicked off yet. But the battles in the south of Izyum, around Kam’yanka were in the spirit of what I described above. Not fast maneuvering and ambush/asymmetric warfare, but rather stand-off artillery duels in the spirit of what one commenter recently brought up as the famous Russian ‘Reconnaisance-Strike-Complex.’ And the results were brutal for UAF – I attached the video in the last SitRep showing the fields literally littered with UAF corpses after the battle of Kam’yanka while Russia had very little losses. https://www.bitchute.com/video/eEictBBTEOQe/
Read this military analyst’s twitter essay on Russian BTGs and how they can, in his opinion, be characterized as basically mobile artillery groups due to the sheer fires disparity https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1511888189153185796
Excerpts: “This is a 1:1 ratio of maneuver to fires(artillery) elements. Western doctrine is 3:1. What this means is that a Russian BTG has an area of influence (where it can reach out and touch you) equal to or greater than a NATO-style brigade. (representative BTG organization pictured)”
If you read his post to the end, you’ll see he comes to the same conclusion as I do, in that Ukraine is about to get badly wrecked by RF artillery in the cauldron killzone. To think of it another way: picture the UAF forces very dispersed and not as susceptible to mass artillery as they have room to disperse/maneuver. Then as the RF forces press in on them from one side, and DPR/LPR from the other, the UAF forces continually are concentrated into a smaller and smaller region where the massive artillery bombardments will now be hitting a dense zone of troops with increasingly greater casualty rates.
Anyone doubting some of these assertions need only to hear it from the horse’s mouth itself. We all know the MIC bigwigs have to tote a certain line in public for policy and marketing’s sake, where they say Russia is inferior or weak, etc. But behind closed doors in their own secret analyses they are saying much different things.
https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf
From an interior army report at Fort Benning, here’s what the U.S. Army expert says about Russian BTGs as compared to the equivalent American BCTs (Brigade Combat Teams). Some salient excerpts:
‘Although some BTG systems are technologically superior to the corresponding U.S. equipment, the BTG doesn’t
have the capacity to observe, target and attack the BCT simultaneously across a broad front.’
‘BTG capabilities are extremely lethal when concentrated against individual units.’
BTGs field a brigade complement of artillery that outrange and outgun U.S. BCTs, but the BTGs only have a reinforced battalion of maneuver detectors. Local fires superiority gives BTG artillery the confidence to remain in place, and it provides the BTG with constantly available indirect-fire support.’
BTGs assume that fires and air-defense superiority gives them the freedom to employ long-range strikes whenever visual or electronic contact is made, regardless of infrastructure
and civilian damage. Local fires superiority gives BTG artillery the confidence to remain in place, and it provides the BTG with constantly available indirect-fire support.
‘Finally, the king of all Russian protection assets is their integrated air-defense system. Although Russian ADA was not employed against warplanes or bombers, the Ukrainian Army lost six helicopters and a transport plane early in the conflict to well-coordinated Russian ADA systems. Also, shoulder-fired missiles are ubiquitous at all levels of regular units.’
‘American BCTs, or at least American-led brigade-sized task forces of coalition units, may be deployed in the future to deter10 or defeat11 a BTG…If a conflict occurs in the near future, technology to overcome Russian ADA is unlikely to be available therefore it is unlikely that the conflict will start with a high-intensity CAM attack.
The BTG will presume fires, EW and ADA superiority in the anticipated fight, but numerically the BCT fields many more combat systems and has a much better sustainment reach.
‘Assume that the BTG strike will disrupt the U.S. C2 needed to coordinate a brigade-level attack. The attack may also neutralize the brigade reserve and fires batteries. Therefore, every U.S. battalion and company should have a ready-to-execute attack planned and rehearsed, including authority to initiate if communications are lost in an
attack. The BCT must plan to counterattack on a broad front to assure that the threat is dangerous, because if the BCT counterattacks on a narrow front, the BTG will be able to mass to defend effectively.
Although several of the BTG’s high-end systems are technologically superior to the corresponding U.S. equipment, the BTG doesn’t have the capacity to observe, target and attack the BCT simultaneously across a broad front.
If the BTG construct continues to prove its utility in Ukraine, Syria and future conflicts, and American and Russian ground forces find themselves on opposing sides in a conflict, it is likely that BCTs will have to defeat Russian Army units organized as BTGs in the near future (before 2025)’
So what are our takeaways from the above? The most important being that the U.S. army admits to the following:
- Russian air-defense is not only superior, but shockingly the army admits that by the time of a confrontation between Russia/U.S., “technology to overcome Russian ADA will unlikely to be available”. So they are counting on the fact that even in the distant future, they will not be able to innovate anything that can pierce Russian ADA.
- Russian EW (electronic warfare) is superior and will likely disrupt American C2 (command & control).
- Several other Russian systems are superior to anything U.S. has, in particular here they are referring to what I already mentioned earlier: Russia’s artillery systems are superior in every way to that of the U.S. This goes for both self-propelled units like the 2S19 Msta which is far superior to the M109, to the tube rocket and MLRS systems like BM-27 Uragon, etc. Also in my opinion Russian light IFVs are superior (though this is a more controversial view, while the others are widely accepted) due to the fact that BMP-2s and BTR-82s have much stronger 30mm cannons than American Bradley / Strykers which have 12.7’s and 25mm’s, and with higher RPMs as well. But that’s for another time.
- Russian artillery outranges and outguns U.S. equivalent (see above)
- In any upcoming conflict, U.S. army is to presume as a given that its C2 will be disrupted AND its fires (artillery) batteries will be neutralized (i.e. blown up by superior Russian counter-battery fire etc)
Now, of course they prescribe all sorts of antidotes on how they may still tactically overcome Russian units. But who can for a moment imagine that Ukrainian forces stand a chance in full frontal, non-asymmetric confrontation given these admissions by the U.S. Army itself about its own forces?
Also to add, this report was from 2017 and many of the weaknesses it attributes to Russian units have long been corrected or improved upon. And it’s quite ominously prophetic that they foresaw a confrontation between the super powers happening by 2025. Seems we’re ahead of schedule.
But with that said, here’s why I think a confrontation between Russia / NATO may be very unlikely. The simple reason is that, particularly in today’s global economic depression (which is really what it is if you look past the fudged figures), the U.S. economy is nearly kept afloat entirely by its MIC, which has emerged as probably the most significant remaining U.S. export and manufacturing potential – its military arms. The retain this final vestige of economic authority, the U.S. has to keep up the ‘mythos’ and image of invincibility of its arms and military products.
Given what you saw above in the report, it is an absolutely undeniable fact that at the minimum, in any Russia vs. Nato engagement, the opposing side would suffer some humiliating defeats to their vaunted systems like the F-35s, Patriots, U.S. Carrier Groups, advanced drones, missiles & PGMs, etc, etc. The scale of the shock and disruption this would create for the U.S. MIC is too heavy to bear. They would never risk their cashcows being ‘exposed’ on the world stage, and having all the mythical mystique stripped away.
Any even small incursion by the U.S. risks a massive image blowback that would destroy the credibility of American arms world wide. They cannot risk showing the world the superiority of Russian systems. Imagine the gungho U.S. sending in F-35s to help Ukraine only to see them get shot down by Russian S-400s? Do you realize the symbolic shockwaves the shootdown of American F117s over Serbia sent around the world? And do you realize that the entire F117 line was literally retired due to that ONE highly humiliating and symbolic event? What would happen when several of U.S.’s key systems are shown in high-definition youtube videos to be completely overrated when Russian systems expose them? It is too great a risk to bear. They cannot allow the last dying profitable sector of their economic engine to be taken offline.
Just a few small on the ground updates today to keep the report from being overlong:
Mass Russian armor continues moving into the Donbass areas from every direction. Z’s are pouring north, V’s and O’s are pouring South and West from Lugansk.
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1512846971580600325
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1512848390702444552
https://www.bitchute.com/video/vTo3UjIZlWuJ/
As reported last time, the artillery hammering on Mariupol industrial districts is heating up, even more units are now firing full time on the Azov positions: https://www.bitchute.com/video/Qk3XiP2nA5jw/
Allied forces have finally reached the Mariupol port and taken most of it over. This is a big achievement, but if you look at the maps, there is still a large city district in that western section that will likely take long to clear. But these are still very good advances.
You can see Wargonzo reporting from the area already: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUCQ-BwSf-c
https://twitter.com/MapsUkraine/status/1512451886720421901
The map is now something like this. The left-most section is where forces have captured the port and advanced. The middle blue is the big Azovstal factory complex which is besieged on all sides now. And the top blue is the last Kalmiuski district with the Illych Factory grounds as well.
The combat is heavier than ever because not only are the last most fanatical groups remaining (3000 or less of the 14,000 – 17,000 they started with), but they are now being compacted into an ever-tightening concentration of areas which means the density of urban warfare is increasing as the following videos attest:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/hryBpxC8jTK6/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/6XsAIl2L0c58/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/JjQ76QLz3rvX/
That’s all for now, as we get closer to the big action of Phase 2 I will provide more in depth on the ground SitReps, but for now I felt the need to include the rubric above to contextualize what we are soon going to witness in the battle for the ‘Great Cauldron’.
I’ll leave you with this look at how proud Russian citizens give a farewell to their beloved reinforcement troops as they leave to the frontlines.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/i3TIzKjg9LzM/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/q5bIjFBfEQli/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/qw66pUy04Tgk/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/6x7TVAhynfzq/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/ZNDpzZErs0SK/
And this quick story of Mariupol: https://www.bitchute.com/video/g2Q68upErJ05/
I have seen a lot of these combat videos and I gotta say compared to actual combat footage where there are actual counter attacks, the Chechens don’t seem to be doing shit. Majority of the videos are of guys alternating firing at the same positions, RPG guys casually standing and walking away after firing a shot, and on one of those videos there’s a Chechen throwing a grenade over a fence less than 10 feet from where he’s at. I’ve seen enough to conclude that they are in for the paycheck.
They’re in for the psyops and they’re doing a fine job on that side. Kadyrov recent banter with Elon Musk was gold.
Yes, it is interesting to speculate on actual effectiveness of Chechens. They like to show off, of course. But they are in Mariupol and Rubizhne, two very dangerous places, and I assume that away from cameras they do real combat work.By the way, psychological effect of fear they arouse in enemy, and support for Russia they arouse in Islamic world is not to be underestimated.
Furthermore, it would not be wise to expose them to very high risk of bad losses. Like storming first line of fortified defense.These units primary task is defending Chechnia from Vahabite extremists, while war in Ukraine is in a sense “Russian” (ethnic) war. Guys from Lugansk and Donetsk bleed here primarily, for their land.
The Chechens may be on the receiving end of a paycheck but they are also fearless. I doubt that 15000 Chechens are there just for their good looks. They are coordinating their activities with the Russians and I have seen many videos of them either with captured Ukie prisoners or with abandoned stashes of US cash and weapons from fleeing Nazis.
The Chechens are not to be underestimated in this operation. They are true brothers in arms with the Russian soldiers.
They have specific skillsets where they excel and they are being held back for efficient deployment – they would certainly prefer to be in the thick of it, and there have been public statements to that effect, but they don’t get to dictate strategy. Whenever it comes to house to house clearances and it gets up close and personal, they will be among the top choices. Nobody should doubt their value. Enemies who do so have a shortened life expectancy.
Chechens are doing the mopped up surgery, that’s it, simple… the rest of what they did in the video is for public consumption to show that these men, so does Russian Army, morale are high, and it is important to show high morale till the end, and Chechen takes their job of cleansing the cities from any UkroNazis parasites very thoroughly and seriously, and yes, they are fearless and spent so much ammo I believe, but that’s the price for doing it “S L O W L Y”, not a NATO Style carpet bombing.
And now, extremely bad news for the UkroNazis Scum, more Chechen battalions are coming into the battleground, and Hell is coming with them! you may want to see:
https://t.me/RKadyrov_95 and
https://www.youtube.com/c/tvgrozny
Thanks.
Thanks NV, superb article!
hello night vision,
I am writing from Germany.
Your summaries of Operation Z are 1A.
A supplement to your comments on technology USA/Russia. We have a saying: The best hammer is useless if the carpenter keeps hitting his thumb. The question of the personnel, i.e. the biological material, is crucial. Many greetings
Great update,i have just one thing to say at the moment,do not allow those foreign/Nato bastards a way out of there,the World needs to see them,those marines who surrendered must have had a lot of intel on who they are.
The world seeing them pay the ultimate price is their greatest value.
I believe that most of us here wanted to see the same thing, we want to see ‘Nuremberg Trial Ukraine war edition’. Also good live scenes like what the USSA & NATO did to Saddam and Gaddafi would be excellent for viewers around the globe. Isn’t that what the people in Zone A keen to see? to watch the War Criminals pay the price for their crimes….
Thank you NightVision and Thank you Saker! Brilliant piece!!
“…here’s why I think a confrontation between Russia / NATO may be very unlikely. The simple reason is that, particularly in today’s global economic depression (which is really what it is if you look past the fudged figures), the U.S. economy is nearly kept afloat entirely by its MIC, which has emerged as probably the most significant remaining U.S. export and manufacturing potential – its military arms. The retain this final vestige of economic authority, the U.S. has to keep up the ‘mythos’ and image of invincibility of its arms and military products.”
Beware of the West’s mistake of thinking this confrontation is up to themselves only. Putin said once that sending weapons is the same as an act of war (just doesn’t repeat it). Slovakia is sending S-300s to Ukraine. They don’t know it, but there’s as a result a 50-50 chance that Russia will attack them like Ukraine was attacked (in what would also be like an SMO, to top it off). Anyone sending weapons places himself at a 50-50 chance. That’s why their repeated “warnings” to their internal audience that a “war must be avoided” must be the biggest contradiction in this century at least. The world has never been closer to a nuclear war. All of our lives are at some risk today.
«Putin said once that sending weapons is the same as an act of war (just doesn’t repeat it).»
Actually it was french president Macros who said it:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1586094/ukraine-war-latest-emmanuel-macron-boris-johnson-tanks-nato-tanks-ukraine-russia-news
«French President Emmanuel Macron categorically rejected the idea of providing Ukraine with more tanks, as hinted at by Mr Johnson, calling it a “red line”. The French leader said NATO should not become “co-belligerent” by supplying Ukraine with more military supplies.»
I just hope the Russians take the war to Nato by destroying all links from western Ukraine that may try and move any Nato weapons that have been talked about,also any ships trying to import those weapons to be boarded and if they have to destroyed,its time some Nato personel started dying.
He said economic sanctions are an “act of war” and that a no-fly zone would be seen as an act of war. Correction accepted.
If those things are acts of war, he may believe that sending weapons is an act of war, and even so much so that he prefers not to say it. Considering what he said and didn’t say, I think it’s a fair, good conclusion that anyone sending weapons places himself at a 50-50 chance of being considered a war enemy (by the one who said those things). It would be imprudent to not even think about it and think that the chance is zero, send weapons, and insist that “war with Russia must be avoided.”
Just today in Konashenkov’s daily MOD briefing was the announcement of a new S300 system being destroyed in Ukraine. I wonder if it’s the one that was sent by Slovakia
@Nightvision At what point does the EU countries sending of weapons, the US supplying surveillance from the skies and NATO advisor/trainer cross
President Putin Red Line? It seems to me it has been crossed many times over?
I realize only Putin knows for sure and he will wait for the perfect moment. The West is playing a very dangerous game.
Did anyone else send another one? I don’t think so! OH boy .. S300 gone!
Where was the S300 when it was destroyed?
Scott Ritter has again been booted from Twitter. I guess his telegram channel is now the place to find him.
He’s good among bad, not worth following too closely. He publishes in RT.
Has anyone else told Nightvision that this report may be the best of its kind in the world?
Nothing comparable in the English language.
An Oasis of Truth for those watered with lies.
Scott Ritter, “booted from Twitter” for telling the truth about Ukraine; and booted from the UN for telling the truth about WMD. Ritter said that he had done his job as UN Weapons Inspector and made sure there were no more Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq. A man dedicated to truth and duty. Let his name be written in the Book of Righteous Yanks to redeem the honour of his country.
“The retain this final vestige of economic authority, the U.S. has to keep up the ‘mythos’ and image of invincibility of its arms and military products.”
IMO there is a false assumption that the US is planning a conventional conflict. They are not that stupid.
IF there is direct conflict, the objective of the US – if there is any conventional phase to it – will be to “shape the battlefield” for a nuclear showdown. As such any discussion about “economy” or “Public Relations” is utterly pointless in that context. EVERY BIG NON-ALLIED state will becom a target in such a showdown as the goal would be to “get out the least damaged” not “get out destroying our enemies” . They know that the destruction on their side would be huge, so they absolutely must destroy the economic potential of EVERYONE ELSE.
And most of these “everyone else” countries KNOW THIS. This is why they not taggin along with the “shape the battefield” games we are now witnessing.
So not, there are NO ECONOMIC CONCERNS ref. any “PR” value of US weapons involved here. The whole concept of a world conflict – should it hopefully not come to pass – is to revert/forestall the UKUS economies becoming irrelevant. And forestall it while they /believe/ to still have the military advantage.
Good comment.
https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine/?s=09
Jacques Baud is a former colonel of the General Staff, ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist on Eastern countries. He was trained in the American and British intelligence services. He has served as Policy Chief for United Nations Peace Operations. As a UN expert on rule of law and security institutions, he designed and led the first multidimensional UN intelligence unit in the Sudan. He has worked for the African Union and was for 5 years responsible for the fight, at NATO, against the proliferation of small arms. He was involved in discussions with the highest Russian military and intelligence officials just after the fall of the USSR. Within NATO, he followed the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and later participated in programs to assist the Ukraine.
Jacques Baud has very balanached opion: price will be high but at the end Vladimir Putin will achieve what Kreml has targeted.
Thanks for posting that
I think the people that really need to know the truth about the Tochta-U (and Bucha) false flags are the Ukrainians. I hope they realize exactly what their government is doing.
A step forward:
Russian flag on the administration of Mariupol!
https://t.me/intelslava/24882
That’s a massive achievement given how the Nazis shielded themselves behind civilians the whole time and then starved them of food and water.
Just need to destroy the remaining mercenaries trapped in Mariupol. The mercs have the blood of innocent women and children on their hands. Show no mercy, please.
A talk show host on WBAP-AM talk radio, said in all seriousness, that the modern Russian Army was no match for the U.S. Army in ground combat. Which I found amusing.
Just like their politics and foreign policy, the U.$. Armed Forces© are thoroughly stuck in the 1980’s, in the Cold War®. Much of their equipment is, too.
I gave up on WBAP. Other than severe weather coverage, they are useless in my opinion. Have been very disappointed in the host in the 2pm time slot. I had great respect previously. No research, critical thinking etc on the situation unfolding. Every false flag, and MSM propaganda claptrap to my knowledge has been reported as truth. Very disappointing. I often wonder what Rush would have to say about the current state of global affairs.
“I often wonder what Rush would have to say about the current state of global affairs.”
I think he would say that Zelensky needs more support, like his friends Levin and Hannity say. Rush seldom defied a broad consensus that included both Republicans and Democrats, and “seldom” without really remembering an exception. He was a great broadcaster though (!).
plz watch this video from the 26 minute timestamp to the end, you’ll see what’s being taught in West Point regarding how U.S. army would fare against Russia
https://youtu.be/_CMby_WPjk4?t=1574
I would have walked out of that lecture feeling less than confident about my prospects of a long and comfortable retirement if I was one of those doing the listening. Some quite revealing admissions among all the puffing up of Ukraines achievments.
There is a war going on but I can’t help but notice that there is a hint of flirtation happening after the surrender of one attractive female UKR soldier.
Hope you are as entertained watching the video link as much as I was. 😁
https://t.me/donbassinsider/7074
🏳️⚧️❗NATO is developing plans for a full-scale deployment of armed forces on its eastern borders in connection with the growing military activity of Russia, – Secretary General of the alliance.
Stoltenberg said that NATO is on the path of “fundamental transformation”, which is happening because of the special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. He pointed out that about 40,000 troops are already stationed on the eastern flank of the alliance, which is about 10 times more than just a few months ago, and their number will grow.
The final decision on what the NATO grouping in the region will look like is planned to be approved at the organization’s summit in June.
https://t.me/donbassinsider/7082
For a decade now most of the western countries have suffered a severe crisis, high levels of unemployment, poverty and social exclusion.
How many times your politicians have used the excuse that there is no a magic money tree to spend in social policies?
Well they found 9.1 billions for war in Ukraine
https://t.me/donbassinsider/7103
Regarding Phase 2 in the East, here is this quote about the assessment of “Western military analysts”, and I also saw an American General making the same point yesterday on TV: “…Western assessments expressed increasing confidence in the ability of Ukraine’s defenders to repel Russian assaults, portraying Russia’s troops as suffering from low morale and mounting casualties.” It’s in this link but the article covers other things too. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelenskyy-russian-aggression-not-limited-to-ukraine-alone/ar-AAW3eDa?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d7609200bf3c4b579acfa55be305d2b2
Nightvision, I wanted to ask you about this. How can it be that military Generals are completely unaware that Russia has everything in its favor to win in the East militarily? I can think of some reasons, but it remains a mystery.
What they (generals) say, and what they’re aware of – are two different things.
Retired Generals are responsible for what they say as experts on television and in print. It would make no sense for them to lie to their audience like this, and the lie would not be aimed at the Russians who probably don’t pay attention to them. And if they do, it does not help the national security of the United States for Russian military experts to see honest-looking Generals showing such poor judgment. Even General Milley makes similar statements on television.
These ‘analysts’ are typically nothing of the sort. They are (highly paid) ventriloquist dolls who have someone else’s arm up their … you-know-what.
Their target is you. And people like you who (still) gave them some credence and in whom they can instill doubt, of whatever kind they want.
When there are two opposing sides to a story or narrative, it is human nature to seek the truth somewhere in the middle. Smart, or should I say manipulative, people know how to abuse that instinct. The more they exaggerate their side, the more they pull you away from the truth. This works especially well if the truth wasn’t in the middle in the first place, but one side was being truthful while the other was anything but.
But it only works if and when you have at least some trust in the messenger. That’s why they use (retired) generals, as the armed forces is one of the few government institutions left in the west in which many (if not most) of its citizens still have trust.
Once their target audience has internalized their preferred narrative, it becomes difficult for them to replace it with something else. Reality doesn’t matter. Just look at all the craziness in the US ever since Trump won the Republican primaries in 2016. People have been fooled in believing the wildest lies, and if the truth later contradicts their views, no matter how blatantly obvious it then is, most will prefer to continue believing the lies.
I’m not sure why exactly the puppet masters of these ‘generals’ now want to prime this particular narrative in people, but it seems they do. Don’t be fooled by the pageantry of the messenger, focus on the validity of the message and draw your own conclusions.
You cannot prove your comment. It’s intuition and wish as of now. You say they are “ventriloquist dolls”. Thank you for this clarity. If you know that, I don’t know what that makes you. I sometimes think I should be the General after watching these ones on TV but looks like you should be. You don’t like them to start with. Does that affect your opinion?
You know, I now notice that the accusation “conspiracy theorist” is a really a valid and good one (just not when applied to people who raise valid questions or present solid evidence).
War is a MIC racket but these kindly wise old “Colonel Sanders” are handing out free finger-lickin’ chicken to the plebs?, … yeh, right.
That does not make what they say wrong, or untrustworthy.
However, it does make what they say strategic within the (their) broarder game field.
Well depends which “generals” you listen to. Douglas Mcgregor clearly has different opinions on what is currently happening. But of course he’s not in current active duty and thus has the “right” to speak freely, contrary to the other ones you mention who have to tote a certain line so as not to anger their ’employer’.
But of course the chief reason for any of the ‘wild’ miscalculations and completely wrong analysis in any western circles whether it comes from generals or whoever else comes down to the same exact symptom: which is that they are all premising their analysis on numbers that are completely wrong. All analysis has to be driven by accurate statistics in life in general. And the statistics they have are completely made up, literally 100% fake. Casualty figures of 30,000 Russian KIA with 3000 destroyed tanks, just literally unprecedented cartoon level numbers that no professional could possibly believe.
But if you do believe even a fraction of those numbers then the analysis you make based on them will always be fundamentally highly flawed and completely wrong. These generals are getting fed absolutely fake propaganda like that ‘Russian troops are starving, they’re out of ammo, their tanks are out of order’, etc. It’s physically impossible to make correct analysis based on such catastrophically wrong data.
Thank you. That’s one of the reasons. It doesn’t solve what I called a “mystery.” They should suspect that the data is wrong, that the weaker does not defeat the stronger just because. Come to think of it now, there is one reason that explains it: Incompetence – pure and simple. Even though being so wrong in plain view of “adversaries” is a very delicate thing, since naturally it is better if the adversary respects your mind and strategic knowhow, they can’t help it because they are convinced of what they say. Later, they will know that it was wrong, and they will say that, you know, the Russians decided to go all in, and Ukraine could not receive enough help, but that if they had received enough help, like back then they were winning, then they could have been right in predicting more Russian defeats. And people will believe them, but their “adversaries” will know better, because their adversaries will not have been disoriented like that. My ideal (non-existing) president calls them on the phone and kindly talks to them. He gives orders to all the active Generals not to be in error in public on military matters. My ideal Congress passes a law forbidding retired Generals to share what they know and don’t know on television.
The second part of the mystery is politics. In an ideal world the government acts in the best interest of the people they should be serving.
In the real world, the government acts in its own self interest to provide wealth for itself so comfortable retirement is in order. The talking heads you speak of are political generals, much like Colin Powell who covered up war crimes in Vietnam and covered himself in shame over Iraq.
Cheers!
Good point. Three big problems perceivable from any distance: No parade marching, they don’t know how to march, which means there is a problem with the cultivation of the martial spirit (a lack of understanding of it), then we see other facts backing this up. Powell is a good example of the second problem. How would these Generals fare against someone like Erich von Manstein? This is one calling for getting to the bottom of it (or else to just party). Then the issue of no results comparable to Russia’s in the production of certain weapons (I suspect all of them) even though spending is about 18 times higher (according to what I read in more than one place; it’s upwards of ten times more) than Russia’s. This third problem should end the arms race because you don’t solve it in one generation, as it includes an education system.
Thank you, Nightvision. Your sitreps are invaluable for us military laypeople.
It would be interesting to hear about the Starstreak missiles. A previous sitrep of yours mentioned that Starstreak probably cost the Russians at least a helicopter and a fighter aircraft. Have their been any other losses, or have the Russians adapted their tactics to them, perhaps by drawing down their sorties?
A more strategic question is this. I am basing this question on what I have read about various military campaigns in history. Isn’t a winning strategy that has often been employed the one where an invader puts themselves in a position where the invaded has to attack them? The battle of Waterloo is an example of that. The allies were the invaders because they approached France wanting to dispose of Napoleon. Napoleon had to attack Wellington before Wellington and Blucher were able to join their forces. So Wellington was able to position his forces in a defensible position atop a long ridge, Napoleon had no other choice but to attempt a full frontal uphill assault on these forces and the rest is history as the saying goes.
Couldn’t Russia attempt a similar strategy in the Ukraine? We hear a lot about the Russian forces not possessing the required manpower advantage to make any decisive breakthroughs. But this works both ways, of course. So what if RF adopts a strategy of pretending that they want to go on the offensive yet in reality waiting for the Ukrainians to bleed themselves dry in counterattacks? We hear a lot about the Ukrainians and the West having won the propaganda war. The idea would be to turn that around against them because they have to show results when they constantly pretend that Ukraine is winning the war. So they cannot just wait out the Russians. They have to counterattack.
Just today, I got the following translated from the blog of the ex-military who calls himself Colonel Cassad:
“Nikolaev-Kherson. Local battles. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not conduct active offensive operations here yet. The Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot advance near Nikolaev due to losses, so they are trying to show activity south of Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih.”
Didn’t the losses mentioned occur when the Ukrainians recently tried to advance towards Kherson? This would be an example of the strategy mentioned. Now I know that many factors play into this, not the least of which are logistical and political ones, but it would be nice to hear Nightvision’s opinion about that.
Re: starstreak. Hard to say for now, it seems they’ve adapted just judging on the fact of no more shootdowns and a new MOD video released of Su-35 showing a SEAD mission, with antiradiation missiles fired from above the clouds shows they’re taking out Ukie air defense from high altitudes.
With that said the very first ever video + photo of an alleged Starstreak being fired (at a drone, reportedly) by UAF has been shown. I will probably post it in the next update as it’s not easily linked at the moment since not everyone has telegram, I’m waiting for it to upload to another channel. So it appears (if true) to confirm Starstreak is in fact in the hands of Ukies.
Re: Waterloo and strategy. The one thing I see many people in this thread make a mistake on when referencing some of my comments regarding frontal war etc etc., is they are forgetting that this is not a 1 front war but rather a developing cauldron. Which means UAF forces are being surrounded on all sides and will be hammered on all flanks, which is an intractable situation. So such comparisons as Waterloo etc are not quite relevant to the particular large scale strategic overview (they can compare to smaller tactical situations in regional engagements but that’s another story) because one must not forget the fact that DPR/LNR troops are pushing in on UAF forces from the east while Russia is about to crush them from the north, west, and south. This completely changes the dynamics of what we’re talking about and many of the conventional notions of Waterloo etc become not so relevant in that respect. Of course in every battle you try to encircle your enemy, attack their flanks, etc etc. But I’m speaking more on a grand scheme operational broadest sense, not really on a per-battle sense.
With that said yes in the Nikolayev region Russia has several times already employed roughly the tactic you’re talking about. They baited the Ukies and when they came out in the open they destroyed them. In fact the famous missile strike on Nikolayev base several weeks ago was an example of that tactic because Russia let them get confident and start massing in one area and then destroyed 300+ of them all at once.
The Nikolayev region is very tricky for both sides, there are alot of very wide open flat areas. So whoever the ‘advancing force’ is can be subjected to quick destruction by artillery and the like. When Ukies attempted to advance they were forced to be in the open and got destroyed. So now they stopped advancing from the west and are trying to be sneaky by going from the north where there’s some small villages they’re taking over, and some smaller DRG groups are trying to get behind Russian lines etc. For now Russia is just playing defensively and fending them off in preparation for force build up to eventually restart an offensive here
Once the operation to close and assault the cauldron in the East has started in earnest, the duration of the onslaught as well as the Russian losses will show whether the main premises of this analysis were valid, or if other key factors were overlooked. I for one can’t see how the Russians are to achieve strategic or operational surprise, when even Joe Public knows by now that a 8 km Russian convoy is currently headed for Kharkov. I have seen people argue that the open steppe and manoeuvre warfare will play into the Russian Army’s hands. Nightvision thinks that a frontal assault battle is about to ensue, in which the superiority of Russian artillery will play a pivotal role. I am not sure what to think. If the past few weeks offer any guidance, I expect further disastrous losses that might bring the Russian offensive to a complete halt. We shall see. The German summer offensive in the South 1942 or the geographically even more limited debacle at Kursk spontaneously comes to mind when I think of the weeks ahead.
Andrew Brunner
In Kursk 1942, there was no ‘cauldrom’ for the Red Army. On the contrary, there were second or even terciary lines of defense with full openned amonition and logistic supply lines. May you elaborate better your compariosion?
Even as a total layman in military affairs, I am aware the comparison is not valid in many regards. It is more a gut feeling that creeps up when I see the headlines about that new Russian convoy, and all the talk about a decisive battle in the East, that has been preoccupying people’s minds on this forum for weeks. I continue to believe that one of the most pressing problems the Russian army has been facing is its seemingly totally inability to achieve strategic or operational surprise on the battlefield, and exploit this to cause the wholesale collapse of the frontline and quickly push deep into the rear. This was not achieved in Kiev and it stands to reason that this will be even much less the case in the ensuing series of skirmishes and battles in the Donbass.
Will the Ukrainian troops be cut off from fuel and other supplies? Yes. Will they be surprised by being (simultaneously) attacked from the North, West, South? Absolutely not, they will have likely prepared their defences in all these directions in the meantime. Will Russian losses be as high as in “phase 1”? Perhaps not, but then, unless there is some kind of game changer that was not in play until now, I cannot help but to expect considerable attrition for the Russian side. This would render it hard for them to pursue further objectives, such as the seizure of Odessa, or a renewed push towards Kiev to seal the fate of the leadership and achieve a resounding victory that would translate into much greater political leverage.
But these are just the ramblings of a politically neutral observer who would be more than happy if this war did not take place and who is trying to figure out what is going on. I expect that my predictions, vague as they are, to turn out to be wildly wrong.
I would also that this war did not take place. But I understand clearly that this is a just war and there was nowhere else to go for Russia. They had exhausted the process of diplomatic changes completely. This was clear at the end of last year and beginning this year, when their requests and their drafting a new security guarantees were ignored by US/NATO/EU. Bear in mind that this is not a new thing .. it is years old and was made public already by Putin’s speech in Munich. Bear in mind also that the US/NATO alliances just plainly lied to Russia to reach their objective to build NATO out as a force for agression – This process is now beginning to appear in the East as well, and even publically spoken about, but those guys are now savvy and will not allow it.
Over the past eight years, I’ve watched the many times that Russia took the case of the Donbass republics to the UNGA and UNSC, only to be met with deaf ears – while the slow slaughter of Russians in the Donbass republics continued. Minsk was the solution – various iterations, and people get confused with the Minsk package of measures. It is not difficult … It starts with a cease fire, move weapons away from the contact line, and then meet with the Donbass – after that a few more things, not difficult. Germany and France were supposed to bring their influence to bear, and did sweet fanny adams, and the Nazi influences in the Ukraine were encouraged to flourish and grow.
I think even I can write a book about these last eight years.
So, with that as a basic primer, what I see you miss (and I may be wrong), is the objectives of this action. You seem to want to see war that you can understand. Well, this one does not have war type objectives. There is no need for Russia to gain territory. The objectives here are demilitarization and this one has largely been accomplished. The Ukraine has no airforce, no navy, major bases were missiled into dust, soldiers are tired, badly supplied and now running out of motivation, equipment, food and supplies of all kinds. This you can see by watching the videos of the soldiers that managed to raise a white flag and surrender. This trend is increasing – they’re surrendering in blocs, if they can get away from their Nazi commanders and Nazi spies.
Russia is not in a hurry – this will continue. Russia, even the ordinary forces, is also running a major humanitarian effort after taking over even a little village. The village is supplied with management, food sources are either handed out from emergency Russian rations, or in some way re-established and this war is not a war that leaves the non-combatants or the civilians in a state of shock with nothing. (Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, etc).
The second goal is that of denazification. Both objectives as far as my knowledge and I followed it closely, did not state an area for this or that. They stated demilitarization and denazification for the Ukraine – and the first demand after that is a neutral Ukraine and no Nato membership. There are a few more operational demands.
So, this is not your normal war. If you understand the objectives, you will see that we will not see lines of soldiers or tanks or something marching toward an objective. Russia will be everywhere and will for sure not let us know where next. Russia is actually keeping the immediate objectives very closely held, and we just don’t know. In a manner of speaking, we watch them after they happened and try and make sense of movements in simply a situational report. (Thanks again Nightvision!)
So, to get to the bottom of this .. you will not understand this war if you do not understand as least some of the history since the fall of the USSR and the rape of Russia – and the subsequent agreements with the fall of the Berlin Wall. There I have almost first hand descriptions and depictions of how it happened.
So, in a larger context, this is not a war. It is a special operation. No war has ever been fought in this way.
Understand the obectives, understand the moves of NATO/US/EU and what they want, and you’ll understand this operation better. The Rape of Russia did not succeed. They want to try it again, to break Russia in pieces and loot them. The same process is happening around China. If you think that Russia or China is going to loose, well for them it is existential – and Putin already said what kind of world is it, without Russia – its unthinkable. From the perspective of ‘war’ this is to the death – and now we get into who wants to own this planet of ours in a single polar hegemon and control it.
The happenings in the Ukraine – Russia will meet its objectives – even if a few other countries cease to exist. Do people know about Russian convoys? Who cares – the Ukraine has no airforce left. Is Russia taking damage in lives? Yes! But how many lives were just taken in the Donbass over the past eight years? There is a commitment – they will do what is necessary.
Now look up at the masthead. It says ‘Stop the Empire’s war on Russia’. We are still doing that excepting that it is now a little broader, and more like Stop the Empire!
For understanding, you should read The Saker’s columns and the other material that gets posted here, you should read Andrei Martyanov, you should read MoonofAlabama – and perhaps the daily Russian Defense reports as well as for the minimum, Telegram Intelslava and Scott Ritter for an American slant. If you are looking for a nice middle position where you can sit comfortably and say .. this one makes sense and that one does not make sense – well, there isn’t one. If you read the mainstream media you can be sure that you are being lied to and more clearly being propagandised. They say so themselves you know.
So, with all this time taken, what would you consider a ‘win’ for Russia?
@Amarynth,
Looking at how many times comments similar to Brunner’s are being posted, I’m suspecting that most of these new posters are receiving guidance from the same venue to ‘adjust’ the message in the article to more suit the western mantra. The Rendon Group in the USA, Cambridge Analytica (Strategic Communications Labs) are two government connected marketing groups that work to perform these sorts of ‘information massaging’ operations.
If I’m right, the messages are scripted in such a way as to bypass the moderation rules. You may have noted my response to Micron in a previous thread ‘I’m not sure’, ‘I doubt’, ‘maybe’, ‘not a military person but Russia could lose’, these message were consistent in that individuals postings even after the core facts were addressed.
Having been the target of a Designer Troll (yes, it’s a thing) on another now defunct blogsite I can attest that there are very sophisticated operations in the information war.
Cheers!
JackJC, if this were a pro-Ukraine blog with military updates I would be playing the advocatus diaboli, there, too, perhaps simply, because I like to take a contrarian viewpoint and question the dominant narrative, in the hope to stimulate an interesting discussion and new perspectives on an issue. I am not here to shape or influence anyone’s opinion, and I am definitely not paid for speaking out my thoughts here. They are vague, because I don’t have a professional military background/training yet at the same time, I am trying to use my general knowledge and the information available to make sense of what is going on and to separate the probable from the unlikely in trying to grasp in which direction and towards what kind of eventual outcome this conflict could evolve.
@ Brunner,
“I am not sure what to think. If the past few weeks offer any guidance, I expect further disastrous losses that might bring the Russian offensive to a complete halt”
Nobody knows what the current Russian losses are, last post was around 1,300 over three weeks. This is not disastrous but expected based on the strategic directives provided by the Russian Government to the General Staff. Light Russian forces anchored large Ukrainian forces in place while destroying the Ukrainian navy, air force, AA defense, fuel storage structures, logistics capability and multiple units. I fail to see how this is an offensive that is ‘slow’. In comparison, the US bombed Iraq (already defeated once and unable to rearm due to sanctions) for several weeks and destroyed massive infrastructure. It still took the US three weeks to reach Baghdad against a demoralized, disarmed and defeated enemy.
“The German summer offensive in the South 1942 or the geographically even more limited debacle at Kursk spontaneously comes to mind when I think of the weeks ahead. “ followed by another post “Even as a total layman in military affairs, I am aware the comparison is not valid in many regards.”
If the point is not valid, there is no point in bringing it up. The original comment seems to me to be disingenuous at best.
“Will they be surprised by being (simultaneously) attacked from the North, West, South? Absolutely not, they will have likely prepared their defences in all these directions in the meantime. “
This entire point is irrelevant, artillery operates at distance, targeting is highly accurate. There is no way to escape or hide from the satellites, drones, or Air Force. All of this was covered by Nightvision in the article who has been writing some excellent Sitreps and has a good grasp of logistical and strategic objectives.
“I like to take a contrarian viewpoint and question the dominant narrative, in the hope to stimulate an interesting discussion and new perspectives on an issue. “ and “They are vague, because I don’t have a professional military background/training yet at the same time, I am trying to use my general knowledge and the information available to make sense of what is going on and to separate the probable from the unlikely in trying to grasp in which direction and towards what kind of eventual outcome this conflict could evolve “
The logic escapes me, you have admitted to little practical knowledge of military affairs, so you use general knowledge to form a contrarian viewpoint? To be clear, I teach military history and the effect of technological change on warfare through the ages and have a degree in Engineering. If I take a “contrarian view” on any subject, the first thing I do is study all the salient talking points used by the opposing side, understand the historical development of those, and then use that data to pin my counterargument. To do otherwise leads to embarrassment.
Lastly, the Russian General Staff is in full control of the events in the Ukraine. Even NATO with all their spies in the air are in reactive mode and can only relay what they observe and guess at what they think the strategic goal is. The UAF, having lost command and control, logistics capability, and initiative are only reactive to what the General Staff has in mind. We can only sit back and try to guess what the future will bring based on historical reactions, past observations and predicted reactions. Vague intuitions mean nothing, I commend you to studying the past Sitreps, listen to Scott Ritter, read Andrei Martyanov’s blog site, learn some basics.
“I teach military history and the effect of technological change on warfare through the ages and have a degree in Engineering”
Very interesting. I am study the military history of Russia during the tsarist period (1700 to 1917). I’m particularly interested in the Crimean War. Russia lost that one because it had fallen a full generation behind England and France with respect to weapons technology. In the future, I’d be interested in asking you some questions on that subject, assuming Saker and Amarynth don’t mind (I don’t think they will). After all, it’s connected – if only in a distant way – with the theme of this board.
As you will know, Western sources claim that the Russians could have lost around 10,’000 men KIA so far, while around the same number of soldiers were wounded. There is a database that counts the number of vehicles the Russians have lost, based on the photos of abandonned and destroyed Russian tanks, IVFs, APCs, trucks etc. (I will be frank and admit that I am too lazy to go into the nuts and bolts of this, as my personal life, thankfully, does not depend in any way on the accuracy of this information.) I regularly read what Scott Ritter says on Twitter, as well as the Sitreps published here, but also what others like Phillips O’Brien, Michael Kofman or the people at understandingwar.org write on the matter.
Who is right? You say tRussians claim they have lost 1,300 men so far. Western analysts and the Ukrainian General staff claim a number that is roughly an order of a magnitude higher. They also claim that six or seven Russian generals have died so far, if I remember this correctly. Who is right? I frankly don’t know, and I try to keep an open mind with a view to radically different possibilities.
However, based on the slow speed of the advance the Russian Army has made so far, and in light of the numerous photos of destroyed Russian military hardware, I am currently inclined to think that the losses reported by Western analysts might not be not too far off the mark.
The fact that tens of thousands of troops have now withdrawn from around Kiew, allowing foreign heads of states to feel safe enough to fly in, parade around and hold conversations with the Ukrainian leadership, demonstrating to the world that “Ze” remains in control, when it would have made sense to keep the pressure up on this center of gravity, indicates to me that the Russian Army was too thinly stretched in its original setup.
I view the coming battle for the Donbass as a test of hypotheses. I am not gloating over Russian casualties, and I have no stakes in this war, thank goodness. My opinion and my way of trying to understand matters and make sense of things may be wrong, but then, so what? I am glad to gain new insights every day and realise there will always be people who are more knowledgeable, intelligent etc. than myself. That’s fine. To me, this is a forum to share and discuss views and information, not a place where I must prove that I am right.
“(I will be frank and admit that I am too lazy to go into the nuts and bolts of this, as my personal life, thankfully, does not depend in any way on the accuracy of this information.)”
This says it all, no need for further discourse. Wastes time requesting data on ground covered previously, then argues a ‘contrarian viewpoint’ based on admittedly limited knowledge.
I’d add that Russia can’t move with the level of surprise or deception it might otherwise use because the sky is watching at all times and all of that information is relayed directly to Ukrainian forces. But Russia isn’t going to use its countermeasures against the watching sky.
Thanks for your reply and the reading suggestions. I find it hard to say what could consitute a victory for Russia in this conflict, not least because I find it impossible to predict whether it will escalate onto an entirely different level in the future or not. Moscow will keep the provinces in the Donbass, establish a land bridge from Crimea to Rostov and will likely try to deprieve Kiev of access to the Black Sea by seizing Odessa. In so doing, Russia will gain direct control over a sizeable population, industrial resources and territory. Perhaps such a victory will be sufficient in deterring Kiew from trying to become a NATO member, which, from what I have read, also appears to have been a key factor informing Moscow’s decision to invade, according to Russian sources. To keep it short and simple, personally, I would think this could well constitute a Russian victory, at least on a superficial level.
Yet, such an outcome might have to be weighed against the possible drawbacks that Russia must contend with as a consequence of th economic sanctions and diplomatic measures designed to isolate it internationally. Finland, for instance, appears to be considering joining NATO (I know, one might argue that it would have done that irrespective of the current war, just at a somewhat later point in time).
How will this broader response and indirect effects impact Russian industry, technology and competitiveness in various sectors? Will it motivate more well educated and young(ish) people to leave the country? Will the war and its effects worsen Russia’s demographic crisis and widespread socio-economic problems such as corruption, alcoholism, a large prison population, high murder and suicide rates, pretty bad road safety records etc. (mind you, the US has a very large prison population, too, and Germany and Italy’s populations are among the world’s oldest if I am not mistaken, and can be argued to be in “decline”) ?
Or will Russian society, in the longer run, become more prosperous and innovative, as a result of a reinvigorated sense of patriotism and identity gained during this conflict, in combination with the inherent strengths that it undoubtedly has, such as a highly educated population, vast natural resources, and thanks to closer cooperation with (East) Asian nations?
In a broader and longer term perspective, this war becomes one small variable among a myriad of others. My gut feeling at this point is that the war will prompt Russian policy makers to funnel even more money into the defence industrial conflicts whereas other areas are neglegted, causing Russia to fall further behind, in relative terms. But as implied above, I do see that the West as a whole, and Europe in particular, is grappling with the same kind of problems related to social discohesion, economic disorganisation, and not least the ever increasing share of the government in the economy.These appear to be deeply entrechend historical trends that are beyond the control of politics and political initiatives.
Let me tell you a joke that I received from one of our Chinese correspondents. A Chinese joke, which I’ve ‘westernized’ but it still is a little inscrutable.
So, that is the joke a little westernized that the Chinese tell.
Russia expected the sanctions and expected they will come whether Russia does anything or not. They were prepared, they are decoupling from western climes (about anything from 12 to 20% of world population only), they are upping their interaction with large organizations like SCO and ASEAN and others, and Russia will thrive, sanctions or not. Take a look at Iran.
So, in any event, the sanctions regime is being broken, bit by bit as the bite is now out of it. Again, if you did what I recommended and listened and read carefully the Martyanov blog, you would know that the Russian economy is much larger than what is stated, there are many more international agreements between Russia and what we call roughly Zone B (non-westernized, open for multi-polarity and that is much further in the process than what we think) and the results of these sanctions will destroy the EU and European countries, long before they dump Russia into the dark. They are in any event now only a show, as they are being clawed back.
Take a look at the value of the Ruble as one measure for example. Russia just put punishing tariffs on wheat exports (for certain countries) and the backlash against sanctions has not even fully started. Take a look at the Indian Rupee for Rubles deals.
No, to the contrary, Russia and Eurasia and the Global South now for the first time in hundreds of years have an opportunity to thrive as we are slowly driving the hegemon back with its war and dollar rentier and plunder economic model. Add everything by Michael Hudson to your reading list, the differences between a resource based economy and a rentier economy. The stuffing is being pulled out under western economies.
OK my last answer to you. You have the sources and the resources. I’m beginning to think your writing is just concern trolling.
@Amarynth
I agree that Western economic statistics are, like many other numbers and “facts”, likely often bogus and often designed to obfuscate rather than to depict reality. Russia will without any doubt find buyers for its vast natural resources and commodities.
Then again, there are of course other sectors in the Russian economy, and the question arises how dependent those have been / are on Western tech and expertise. Take for instance the civilian aerospace industry, which has been relying on Western hardware for decades. I don’t know to what extent the oil & gas sector has depended on Western know-how in certain specialied niche areas, but then again, the Chinese might be able to provide that expertise going forward.
Overall, I do see Russia on a solid economic base thanks to its wealth in natural resources and a monetary policy that seems considerably more sound than what the US and EU have been engaged in. Europe, however, is headed for a very steep fall, I have absolutely no doubt about that.
If you ask me, the EU bureaucracy is irresponsible to the degree of outright treason to “voluntarily”(?) consider cutting the continent off from Russian oil and gas. In economic terms, the EU stands to be the great loser of this conflict and its zeal to punish Russia with sanctions. Moreoever, given the fragility of Europe’s energy grid, the EU can not afford its histole attitude towards Moscow. To the contrary, its leaders should be grateful for every single day their lights are still on. A truly independent, realistic and measured European foreign policy should IMHO have strived for a neutral Ukraine with a foreign policy modelled after that of, say, Finland during the Cold War.
I am not sure what you mean by “concern trolling”, but I gather it means nothing positive.
“I find it hard to say what could consitute a victory for Russia in this conflict,”
I think this is an easy question to answer.
Look at it this way. This war is being fought because of US/NATO’s inexorable, multi-decade policy of expanding eastward, always at the expense of Russia’s national security and sovereignty. That’s the real genesis of this war. That’s Putin’s chief concern. It’s also the chief concern of Russia’s national security elites.
In the 2014-15 war, Russia created a situation that ended – or greatly postponed – any possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. But, in subsequent years, America began setting the groundwork for Ukraine to eventually become what’s known as a “special US military ally,” which is essentially no different from being a NATO member. That’s why Russia elected to go to war in 2022: to end America’s militarization of Ukraine.
Therefore, ANY outcome to this war which permanently ends US and/or NATO military involvement in Ukraine is a victory for Russia. Particularly if, in addition to agreeing to never again maintain military ties to the US and NATO, Ukraine agrees to permanently limit the size of its military.
In other words, anything amounting to the “Finlandization” of Ukraine is a Russian victory.
Of course, there a numerous other goals Russia would like to achieve by fighting this war. I won’t detail what those goals are, everybody pretty much knows them all. But I am saying that, as long as Russia obtains that first major war goal – permanently ending US/NATO involvement in Ukraine – then Russia wins, even if it has to forgo obtaining the rest of its war objectives.
I think it’s that simple.
“I expect that my predictions, vague as they are, to turn out to be wildly wrong.”
Imagine someone saying, “I predict this and I also predict that it is wildly wrong.” Besides yourself, do you know anyone who says that? I have not heard that in a long time. I think the guy was laughing when he said it. It can not be said with a straight face.
He’s a troll. On page one there’s another post of him where he tries to create the same sort of doubt, using different types of trigger words. He keeps on calling Russian losses ‘catastrophic’, or ‘horrendous’, or something similar. When called out (by me) he provided a source (the BBC!). Unfortunately, that very source of his admitted (at the very end of the article) to having been able to verify only 39 casualties for an entire VDV regiment (which means a loss ratio of between one and two percent, how ‘catastrophic’ indeed!).
That’s when he went silent. In that thread at least. And then this one comes along where he uses the same kind of language he has just been called out on elsewhere. That doesn’t really stack with his claims of just trying to understand and looking at it from both sides.
Not all trolls live under bridges and are big and warty (ie easily recognizable).
He needs to be studied with a magnifying glass then. :-)
I won’t do it, but the mods – it’s like their first duty. Trolls are very dangerous people. The mods protect the visitors when they detect them.
I think the following might address some of your remarks…………………..Colonel MacGregor Says Bucha Claims Do Not Make Sense • 77 Comments
link please
A fair bit of space was devoted to the Ft Benning Report. As someone who used to write non-military SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunity, threat) assessments back in the day I can assure you that this was written with the primary purpose of getting more funding.
Any serious strategic analysis or report would not be published on a public website.
watch this entire video from the 15 min mark to the end then come back and talk. Enjoy
https://youtu.be/_CMby_WPjk4?t=969
Dr. Phillip Karber knows bugger all about Ukraine. Dr. Phillip Karber knows bugger all about how Russia wages war. Dr. Phillip Karber is a narcissist psychopath.
I was stationed in Germany with a nuke unit, from 1972 to 1976, the general thought and military attitude back then was that The west German and American forces could never stop a Russian advance. This also included the British and French forces stationed in West Germany. Our military doctrine back then was to deploy tactical nukes. The units I was with employed the Sergeant missile, and later on, we converted to the Lance missile system.
There were also other tactical nuclear missile systems deployed in Europe at that time also. I am pretty sure there are still systems there either upgraded or newer systems. The doctrine back then as it is now that the west could never resist a frontal tank attack from Russia, that an attack must be stopped with smaller tactical nukes, and heavy Air supported bombing. That is one reason we still maintain a strong Air Force in Ramstein AFB and other bases. Our Tank units also rely on the U.S. to start sending in reforger units to take charge of their equipment pre-possitioned in Germany to hopefully stop a Tank invasion. BUT! seeing the poor condition of the equipment used by Russia, it sits in the motor pool not being exercised. Not to say it is totally ineffective.
” BUT! seeing the poor condition of the equipment used by Russia, it sits in the motor pool not being exercised”
You are deluded, or hallucinating.
One project i was involved in, a few years back, was to assist British companies with research support, to identify any opportunities for them to gain business. One British company stated that they were involved in hatch systems for apertures – these could be on submarines, ships, tanks, even emergency exits for buses. Whilst doing some lateral thinking, i came across a website for procurement issues made by the British Army (now offline)…well…there were hundreds of small companies there, each with considerable engineering skills…but all were complaining that they were under-utilised and mostly only got work related to rebuilding damaged vehicles – for example, if the British Army used Land Rovers or Ferrets in a war zone, any vehicle parts that could be salvaged after some event would be shipped back to the UK and one of the engineering companies would be involved in a re-manufacture or upgrade…all light infantry support stuff. Nothing of any major consequence for a larger scale operation. I asked a German Tank builder if they could use some help from Britain…They stated that there was a major shortage of engineering skills in precisely the area i was focused on…and would be delighted to have some support.
Naturally i was happy to gain funds for doing such a simple networking task which then would help engineering companies gain some business….but it left me wondering why this was not an automatic process within NATO…where was the coordination? I was left with the feeling that there was an awful lot of equipment that was damaged or idle or broken down across Europe…and browsing MSM articles in fact confirmed this for most weapons systems. For example that if Germany possessed 800 tanks they had only 20 ready for immediate use…if France had 400, only 10 were ready to use etc…dont quote me on the numbers im just demonstrating the relative order of magnitude.
So it is one thing to have the equipment – like having mobile missile launchers…but if the ball bearings give trouble and the supply chain has difficulties in obtaining stuff…and there are 5000 parts on a truck that could go wrong and do go wrong…
But what i know of Russian vehicles and weapons systems is that they have habit of being operational and offering high capability even after “sitting and not being exercised” and even in the coldest weather…The Russians have been way ahead in simple stuff like using Ultracapacitors and special diesel additives and special lubricants in their cold climate, whilst this simple technology is sneered at within NATO…just a general feeling based on observing theatres. Throw an AK47 into dirt or a river and it will still work…will a US Army carbine still work?
Russian heavy vehicles and engines in particular are the most durable on the planet. For instance, it’s the main reason Russia is considered THE dominant force of the world famous Dakkar rally just look at the winnings column, it’s been dominated by Russia in the truck category for the past few decades https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dakar_Rally specifically the Kamaz trucks.
The Dakar rally is about endurance testing of vehicles and their systems, they have to cover thousands of miles over the course of several days and Russia wins the truck category every single year
Israel is delighted that white people are slaughtering each other. The new Khazaria is closer to being established. And jews want to get in there and hack the genetic origin of white people. Jews go for the roots. In this case, an eradication of whiteness. Jews were talking about exterminating the white race long before Hitler came along.
Hey, David, I’ll bite……what colour are Jews?????????
Neutral
I also believe that was why Russia invaded Ukraine because the Nazis who ran the Ukrainian government had no qualms in bombing the separatist in eastern Ukraine who wanted to secede and become a part of Russia again, because they did not like the rule of those NAZIs. So yes, I do believe those NAZIs did pull a false flag in bombing that train station if only to gain sympathies from NATO about the supposed Russian aggression to put Nazism in its place.
If there were any doubts about the link between Ukraine and ISIS (following the butchering of Russian PoWs eg NSFW https://t.me/realCRP/4268), the latest PR attempt from Ukraine removes any doubt.
Remember this (green screen) image of an ISIS fighter about to slaughter a prisoner?
https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/3126864/3126864_900.jpg
well here is a still from the latter part of the Ukraine PR video
https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/3127182/3127182_900.jpg
The video itself.
https://t.me/warinukraine2day/284
here’s why I think a confrontation between Russia / NATO may be very unlikely.
The presence of high level NATO officers in Azovstahl proves that the US and Russia are already in outright war. Russia will respond, but in her own time, as the conditions become perfect (after the end of the Ukraine action when sufficient converted VSU are administering cities, and policing the denazification. Then Russia will start removing US/NATO military capability. No “choice” on the part of the US is involved, because the precipitating actions are the direct involvement of NATO forces, deployment of mercenaries, direct NATO command of the VSU troops, provision of targetting data, provision of weapons, etc. Russia will give no advance indication, no warning – when the time comes, the standoff weapons will simply start flying, unannounced. The US/NATO destiny is pre-ordained, as a result of already completed actions.
Is it possible that the globalists wanted *Azov* destroyed, and are actually behind a proxy Russia destroying them, while pretending otherwise?
And that they are all…in…it…together (Russia/EU/NATO/etc.) against Azov? The target is Azov?
How would their NWO come about with national extremists like Azov running around; who seem to have _elensky and the current Ukrainian regime running scared?
And, as payment to Russia, at the end of this Azov-destruction, Russia retains Crimea and the Donbas?
Just throwing it out there.
Oh gee! which insane alt-media is now speculating on this again? No it is nonsense.
Canada currently has an Azov controlled government, heavily infested with Neo Nazi’s and their hanger-ons …one sees the merits of such, were ‘The Plan’ to have Mr Kalibar come a knock, knock’n on Reideau Hall’s Front Door….refrains of Mr Dylan’s classic plays in the background…….
Cheers M
I love my country (USA) but its leaders not so much. Lies and deception are their way of controlling its citizens thoughts. From my time JFK, RK, MLK, Vietnam, Waco, OKC, 9/11, WMDS, Iraq,Iran, Afghanistan, and I’m sure I missed the no end of lies and deception this countries leaders have pulled of to control its unwashed masses.
Now we have a conflict in the Ukraine, this gives the whole world a stage to watch and through lies and deceit control peoples minds.oh how I sympathize for the people of Ukraine, caught up in this terror of evil plotting minds who who will stop at nothing to carry out their diabolical plans. The betrayal of its leaders to gain world sympathy and support tears my heart to pieces.Its at times like these I look outside the situation to see what else is happening here. OKAY the bio labs have been made known and the destruction of some at least has come about, Zelensky, is being exposed for the puppet he is, the Biden crime family, is being revealed and all from a very unlikely source Russia1
In the news this morning, the Ukrainians are complaining that the “evil” Russians stole all of the bomb grade Plutonium that they were extracting from the melted down reactor at Chernobyl. The Ukrainians didn’t exactly say “bomb grade Plutonium,”. However; their description of nuclear material being taken for souvenirs can not be spent fuel rods that remain in storage pools for cooling. Any scattered, solid chunks from the melted down reactor were collected and disposed of years ago. The only way that there could be recognizable objects of nuclear material on site is if Ukraine was extracting Plutonium from either the melted down “elephant’s foot” of Corium in the basement or from spent fuel rods.
Just a bit of a science lesson. The radioactivity of any substance is inversely proportional to the half-life. The longer the half-life, the LESS radioactive an isotope is. Pu-238 which has a half-life of 87 years is actually 276 times as radioactive as Pu-239 which everyone shits their panties about because it has a half-life of 24,000 years.
I’d noticed reports of Radioactivity spikes in the months prior to the invasion. I didn’t notice the very few reports that Zelenski had attempted to extort membership from NATO by threatening to acquire nuclear weapons if Ukraine wasn’t admitted as a member. Now I’m wondering if Ukraine had a Plutonium extraction plant set up at Chernobyl and maybe even an isotope separation plant to enhance purity and explosive yield. I know that there are a lot of American and European Oligarchs that would finance such a scheme in return for nukes of their own.
One last, scary thought. Is Ukraine committing false flag missile attacks to be exploited as a pretext or excuse for using nuclear weapons against Russia?
Apparently the S300 from Slovakia has already been destroyed:
https://ria.ru/20220410/ukraina-1782753686.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop
https://t.me/asbmil/1009
Hi,
Thanks for your great coverage and thoughts.
I don’t know about you,but I can definitely see a different version of the Russian Army taking shape over the last day or two.
I think we are about to see massive gains over the next 2 weeks ,along with a demonstration to Nato and the West of shear fire power,supply and tactics on 3 fronts.After the antics of Ukraine to be trusted in negotiations.The Gloves are now off.Ukrainian Statehood too, is now gone imo.
Kim,
My bet is the liberation of the Cauldron will take 12 weeks and the RF and their Ukrainian Allies will only be ready for the next phase of military ops in late July/early August. I hope your 2 week prediction is correct and I am wrong.
Yeah it really depends on what people define as success and victory. For instance, the cauldron can collapse very quick, but the actual final stronghold cities will then hold out and take months to fall just like Mariupol. Right now the indications are that UAF is turning the Kramatorsk – Slavyansk agglomeration into a giant stronghold for a final battle (this is why they’re desperate to keep civilians there as human shields, thus striking fleeing civvies with Tochka to keep them scared). The vast bulk of the UAF cauldron seems to be in this region and Kramatorsk was classically the capital/headquarters of the entire JFO as I understand it. So in short, what I suspect will happen is the cauldron will collapse from Barinkove towards this Kramatorsk region as forward lines retreat to 2nd and 3rd tier defenses until they fall back completely to those cities, while LPR pushes in from the east axis on Bakhmut towards which they’re now advancing. And the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk urban area will be a massive Aleppo style siege that once surrounded could take many months to fully liberate, likely leading to the utter destruction of that entire urban area far worse than anything in Mariupol or elsewhere. This is where the bulk of the cauldron force will likely be destroyed
Agreed – likely scenario.
Looking beyond – here’s how my guess looks;
Summer/Fall – a) RF and Ukie Allie’s make moves to liberate maybe Odessa and/or strategic parts of Ukraine west Dnipro tried to create alternative gov’t d) NATO builds up Forces around Lemberg
Spring 2023 – Major NATO Offensive ( inconclusive )
Summer/Fall 2023 – RF and Ukie Allies counterattack and sucessfully liberate big portion of Western Ukraine but not all. Lemberg and Kiev under NATO control. Alternative Ukrainian gov‘t recognized by SCO etc.
Spring 2024 – instead of Armies of 100,000 facing each other, both sides have armies of 500,000+ battling each other in Westen Ukraine. Millions of tons of ammunition expended…
Winter 2024 – Riots and Unrest in various NATO countries over hunger etc. The escalating destruction causes both sides to sue for peace. Ukraine is a desert. 300,000 Civilans and combatants killed.
It’s interesting that Arestovych in his now famous ‘prescient’ interview from several years ago, where he predicted the entire conflict, he also predicted 2 or possibly 3 wars with Russia, roughly one in 2022, then 2024, and another in 2027 or something along those lines (off top of my head). He didn’t go into detail but the indication is clear that he seems to have foreseen that an initial war would be inconclusive, i.e. Russia taking everything east of Dniper but then both sides coming to ceasefire agreement. And then just like Chechnya 2nd War, it would be resumed eventually for Russia to “go all the way” and this time finish Western Ukraine etc.
Sure hope the Russian MOD have a better plan than fighting the same damn war 3 times. If they have the ammunition reserves and under sanctions can still produce and resupply at a faster rate than US NATO, then they should just keep smashing pieces till the US NATO Nazis cry uncle.
Cheers M
Nightvision.
Thanks for the Arestovych summary. It could go his way – with on/off wars over many years. That’s the Brushfire War model of the Cold War pre-1970. TBD
What is certain is Iron Curtain 2.0 is going to last a long time – perhaps decades. It’s tragic and was unnecessary – neutrality was a perfectly honorable path for Ukraine etc.
What a waste
Hey Nightvision,
What the heck do you think this bomb was? Looks massive!
https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/34378
Probably just an oil depot hit, low overcast cloud cover diffuses the light from the explosion making it look bigger than it is
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1513252891737444357
Some new videos of it, some people speculating an Odab-500 thermobaric, while I’ve seen others say Iskander strike on the Nikolayev port. Hard to tell if this large explosion is from whatever was hit in the port or more from the munition itself
I don’t think Ukraine has the strategic stamina to keep this up for over one year. This isn’t what most Ukrainians bargained for in terms of new years resolutions. Many have already fled abroad and probably won’t be back ever. Lots of those who staid were just unlucky not to flee on time before mobilization. Wrong place wrong time. No fuel, messed up planting season, blown up industrial fabric, destroyed bridges, airports, sea blockade, military oblivion. After Donbass cauldron is cooked, Ukraine will fall apart morally and psychologically. This isn’t Vietnam or Afghanistan where most people were self reliant rural subsistence farmers. This is an industrial country whose people have certain administrative demands and expectations with massive division of labor. The structural collapse of Ukraine is imminent. It can’t last”three years”. Today the UN already announced 50% crash of GDP for Ukraine in 2022. I anticipate population outflow to reach similar percentages.
@ Leo Mikhaylov on April 10, 2022 · at 4:18 am EST/EDT
“I have seen a lot of these combat videos and I gotta say compared to actual combat footage where there are actual counter attacks, the Chechens don’t seem to be doing shit…”
@ IGOR VUKSANOVIĆ on April 10, 2022 · at 5:48 am EST/EDT
“Yes, it is interesting to speculate on actual effectiveness of Chechens…”
————————–
It is even more interesting to speculate on the shameless “armchair generals” who have the nerve to question the sacrifice of the Chechen brothers in Ukraine. A large number of Chechens deployed in Ukraine are veterans of their own wars, many of them legendary commanders who earned their prestige in years of combat, not sitting on a chair writing drivel.
Who are these “armchair warriors” to question the Chechens’ efficacy on the battlefield?
Who are they to question what they see in 2 minutes videos as an accurate portrayal of what the Chechens are facing?
These armchair warriors with a big mouth talking shit 24/7 have nothing better to do than to stain the honor and
the sacrifice of people who are giving their lives fighting against the new wave of Nazi-Fascism. If they have a better idea about fighting the Ukronazis, they should go to Donbass, to Mariupol, and show the Chechens how they’ll be so “efficient” at…being big mouth cowards.
Lone Wolf
Yeah, who exactly was it that was the main prosecutor of the reduction of Mariupol from 14,000-20,000
Azovs and AFU to the last holdouts in Azovstal of maybe 1,000-2000? The clearing house to house, apartment
block by apartment block wasn’t mopping up. It was urban guerilla warfare carried out by the Chechens.
Lone Wolf, if you had read whole post,you would have seen, that I commended Chechens. If you think no discussion should be allowed about anything, this is really not your decision.
https://voenhronika.ru/publ/vojna_na_ukraine/komandir_azova_v_mariupole_umoljaet_o_pomoshhi_konchilas_dazhe_eda_poslednie_svodki_iz_mariupolskogo_kotla_10_aprelja_15_video_2022/60-1-0-11857
“The commander of ” Azov “in Mariupol BEGS for help – even the food ran out! Latest reports from the Mariupol boiler on April 10 (15 videos, 2022)”
In recent days, the intensity of fire from the “Azov” militants entrenched in the territory of “Azovstal” has noticeably decreased. At the same time, the long-lost deputy commander of the Azov with the call sign “Kalina”, formally leading the defense, went on the air. He said that for two weeks he had never been able to get through to Bankova, even SMS is not read.
They no longer have anything to bind up the wounded, they are running out of ammunition, gasoline and even food.
He doesn’t look as cheerful as in the previous videos, partly because today Azovstal was heavily hit with all the Allied artillery.
Also today, the flag was raised over the Mariupol Regional State Administration. A selection of the latest and most recent videos.
——————————-
Here is Azov “commander” call sign “Kalina,” begging for food, medical supplies, ammunition, and…bandwidth.
https://ok.ru/video/3387073825408
This late into the game, their firepower decreasing, ammunition might be rationed and used mostly for counterattacks, they have no power for operational/tactical initiatives. Their situation might be akin to the final weeks of German nazis in Stalingrad, who by what we have witnessed so far in Mariupol, had a better grasp at urban combat, and were much better soldiers than their Ukronazis heirs.
If what call sign “Kalina” describes as their predicament can be taken as a reference, with a grain of salt, they cannot tend to the wounded, which means they have plenty of nazis lying with open, infected wounds, just waiting to die. They are forcing civilians to walk through the battlefield to get them food, while holding their relatives as hostages. There is no much food in Mariupol, which means they are forcing the few still left in the surroundings of Azovstal to give them from the food relief Russians/Chechens are distributing.
Call sign “Kalina” is complaining about not having SMS, which means Russians are blocking networks in the area, however, they still have radio communication, as the mercenaries still left with them are talking like parrots in six different languages. Call sign “Kalina” is now announcing the end is near, and they have no way out. No choppers will come for them anymore, no ships will venture again on a maniac adventure, they are condemned to be cannon fodder for the Empire of Lies and their 404 puppets.
A not-so glorious ending for yet another bunch of nazi criminal trash.
Lone Wolf
How long til the Azov rats start eating each other down there? Kalina looks fairly plump, they might gut him first, he could feed a company of men for a few days
How long til the Azov rats start eating each other down there? Kalina looks fairly plump, they might gut him first, he could feed a company of men for a few days
They might starting eating their American, French, German, British, or other NATO advisors first.
It would be the Donner Cannibal Party, Azovstal edition.
American BBQ is world renown. And European steak is also a treat.
Given their proclivities, the Azov Nazis may wish to sample these delicacies–up close and personal.
Intel Slava (great coverage) on Telegram had a short video by a deputy commander Azov Kalina. He does not look totally evil like many of Azov just kind of a dumb fat guy. He even expects to die soon he says. He says they were betrayed by the politicians who talk about support but have not answered the phone for 2 weeks. He talks about friends who betrayed them and are afraid to come to the rescue. I almost feel sorry for this guy. He appeasr to be clueless. He gave his life for nothing. He was lied to by these monsters in charge. Sad fool.
The brainwashing and BS that was pushed on the masses in the Ukraine is sickening. From the same people backing Zelensky and probably the USA-Ukie-NWO biowewapon labs in the Ukraine. Same NWO people.
I hope every oligarch in Ukie land who pushed this evil and owns TV networks including Igor Kolomoisky are hunted down, put on trial and executed. They created this insanity and evil. Hopefully if they are not caught and arrested that Russia will send the Chechens to find them.
Isn’t it rather funny that, the only time these ‘rats’ come to there clear senses is at a moment,
when ‘death’ is distinctly inevitable. Their plea for humane forgiveness is a show to manipulate those who
think with there emotions.
I would not be so quick to venture a feeling of pity, or forgiveness for them or there root cause and for ‘allowing’ themselves to be used as tools/fools against the greater good.
https://voenhronika.ru/publ/vojna_na_ukraine/zhestkie_video_razgroma_ukraisnkoj_armii_pod_izjumom_karta_boevykh_dejstvija_i_poslednie_svodki_vecher_10_aprelja_30_video_2022/60-1-0-11856
HARD videos of the defeat of the Ukrainian army near Izyum. Map of combat operations and latest reports-evening of April 10 (20 videos, 2022)
Many do not understand why the army takes so long to take this or that point, and does not jump in a dashing saber attack on Lviv.
Russia is waging a war with a peacetime army, moreover, without using conscripts. Therefore, often knocking out the enemy from a particular village near Izyum, the Russian military realize that they knocked out a company with a platoon, and fought against a battalion with a company.
Ukraine in this war performs the function of meat, which is pumped up with weapons and directly put on the front line. After the main battle of the spring campaign, that is, the battle for the Donbass, we are waiting for the Battle of the Dnieper, the Kiev offensive operation, the storming of Odessa, and so on. We live in an Era of change, be proud of it, and do not put ashes on your head (from a channel Older than the Edda).
British intelligence warned the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that Russia is changing the tactics of warfare, now there will be no deep breakthroughs into the interior of Ukraine, but a methodical cleaning of squares with phased campaigns, but this is not accurate. Dnipro airport was completely destroyed this afternoon.
Among the dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, more and more people are being mobilized from the Kiev, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
It is reported that Poland has sent the first batch of T-72 tanks to Ukraine in the amount of 100 units. They can hardly send more than 400 tanks, they only have so many of them.
It is also reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will copy the experience of Mariupol. Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Severodonetsk will be turned into fortress cities where 30 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 200 MLRS systems are concentrated. All new weapons from the United States/Great Britain / France/Germany are sent to the eastern front, where there are already 24 thousand ATGMs,Javelin, NLAW, Starstreak and Stinger MANPADS.
Biden’s aide said that the United States is working on a plan to increase arms supplies to Ukraine, studying the training of the Ukrainian military abroad — Bloomberg. Training of Ukrainian military instructors, who will then train their military personnel in the use of weapons supplied by NATO countries, will be organized in Lithuania — the country’s Defense Ministry.
———————————————
This article is for those who are impatient with Russia’s deliberate pace in their special operation. It starts with,
“Many in Russia do not understand why the army takes so long to take this or that point, and does not jump in a dashing saber attack on Lviv…”
and even though is addressed to the Russians, it fits the bill for many in and out of this blog who seem desperate to see the Russians at Berlin’s gates again (pipe dreams), or have a guessing game at how long would it take for this or that operation, or to cook the Ukronazis in the cauldron.
There are themes in this short article A. Martyanov keeps on repeating, but few really understand.
1) Russia is fighting this special operation with a peacetime army, no conscripts.
The Russian Way of War is being tested while facing a NATO-trained army, and “knocking a company with a platoon, a battalion with a company” means the Russian units are inferior in numbers, however, the combined arms complex of their BTGs with tanks and motorized rifle companies and artillery batteries give them a punch to be reckon with.
2) Russia’s open goals for the special operation are disarming and denazification of Ukraine, however, Russia is now fighting a proxy war with NATO, and her true goals in this new predicament cannot be fathomed.
The withdrawal from Kiev, justified on giving a lame “negotiation” a chance, might have been a tactical adjustment for the consolidation of territories already occupied, and/or to provide extra troops for the battle of the Donbass, whose beginning will mark the end of the Mariupol campaign. More and more it looks like Russia is conceiving this special operation as a long term war, one of the unspoken goals being the obliteration of Ukraine as a nation-state, disarming and denazification a means to that end.
British intel is also in a guessing game as to Russia’s intentions (they are not alone, the entire Western intel is caught in the same conundrum), their predictions fall short on a battlefield where Russia has full spectrum dominance, able to attack any point in Ukraine.
3) “Do not put ashes on your head”
That might be a Russian proverb, the article is calling to look at this conflict with new eyes, a new mindset from which we can infer that this will be a long term conflict, and Russia is already looking at it from a long term perspective.
The West/MIC decided to go for broke, and are throwing everything they can at Russia. Fatso Nuland (too many nazi cookies!) has been on a tour of Europe gathering support for Ukraine, at the same asking former Soviet countries to send their old metal junk to Ukraine. As we have read from different sources, the term junk correctly applies to most of it. Konashenkov warned them about feeding the conflict and prolonging the suffering of Ukraine, however, as we well know, they are willing to fight this war to the last Ukrainian.
What does this mean for Russia?
The collective West is “arming” Ukraine with the sole purpose of turning the Ukrainian battlefield into Afghanistan 2.0, getting Russia bogged down in another quagmire. Their (mis)calculations are about half a century old, they are now fighting a resurgent Russia, not the sclerotic USSR. For Russia, it will be more convenient to fight this proxy war close to home, it makes the logistics part of it easy to handle. We can expect Zec (the prisoner) to lift his ugly head once in a while asking for more “negotiations,” we all know by now he’s just a prisoner of the CIA and the homegrown nazis, nothing to talk with him.
In the meantime, the Winter Offensive will end with Mariupol and the destruction of the Azov criminal trash, the Spring Offensive will be the long waited battle for Donbass, and then we can expect a long, dragged, scorching summer.
I’d suggest to make food provisions, start your vegetable garden, food will become scarce and expensive, inflation and fuel costs will jack up prices across the board.
Lone Wolf
There has been a bunch of discussion about who has the best weapons and so on. I suggest you work through the latest Martyanov.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/04/whats-deal-with-ben-hodges.html
@ Amarynth
Thanks for the link to Martyanov, he’s on a roll cutting heads and showing they are empty.
BTW, who posted the anonymous “A disturbing trend in Ukraine”? I wanted to thank whoever did, there was no one.
Thanks.
Lone Wolf
This question is directed towards any courteous person here who is sophisticated about the military situation in Kherson.
Basically, I’m wondering what’s the Russian army’s disposition at Kherson? I assume they are dug-in, or positioned behind defensive works, and that the front line separating them from the Nazis is heavily mined. Also, I assume the Russian units in Kherson are well supported by artillery, rocket launchers, and all other forms of ordnance. Am I correct?
The word online is that Nazi forces are massing to attack or penetrate Kherson. But personally, I don’t see how the Nazis could accomplish this. The Nazis have achieved their only real successes so far by launching side attacks against Russian columns stretched out along lengthy highways. But that’s the exact opposite of Russia’s position in Kherson, I assume. Kherson – a fixed, stationary position – is a place where Russians must enjoy defense in depth.
Do I have the right idea here? Any feedback is appreciated. Bear in mind I don’t know 21st century military science, which is why I’m asking this question on this forum.
You’re right in that the UAF is incapable of amassing any sort of real offensive or counter attack. They don’t have the armor or mechanized forces to do this. Have you seen a single photo/video in the past month of any UAF armor formation? Something like more than 2 or 3 tanks? It’s like finding Bigfoot, you could become famous if you spot such a mythical armor formation. Because it doesn’t exist. Any mass armor movement in the open would get obliterated by the air, so UAF has no real ability to launch offensives of any kind. The Kherson stuff is just propaganda and smoke & mirrors. There are a few DRG’s driving civilian pickup trucks who sneak into the villages north of Kherson and stir up some trouble, that’s about it.
Think about it like this, Kherson has highways leading up to it, the checkpoints are all controlled by Russian guards. The UAF has no tanks or armor, no air force. So let’s say they want to invade Kherson, what would you do if you were them? They can try to drive in on civilian busses but then they’d be identified at the checkpoint and shot. They can try walking down highway on foot or maybe riding bicycles and then they’d be seen by drones and bombed.
Most people are not quite aware of what exactly it even means when Ukraine “retakes a village” as they claim to be doing in several regions. People must naturally assume a sort of image of this large Ukrainian tank column moving into the village. But in actuality if you follow the videos posted everywhere, it’s just a few groups on the backs of pickup trucks that drive into the village and walk around to secure it. They pretty much have no real armor left and the few they do have are out of fuel and can only really be used in a static/stationary defensive position, to use the tank as a dug in turret.
Here’s one of their last Kherson offensives from a couple weeks ago, which was brutally destroyed. https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1508124365120057355
Do you notice anything? Like the fact that they’re literally walking for miles across an open field to try to reach Kherson, with only 1 light armor at the front (this was a few weeks ago, by now they probably don’t even have that). This is the type of “offensive” they’re capable of doing. A bunch of guys walking 30 miles then getting bombed by a drone
The French are changing intelligence horses in midstream:
AZ Military News
@AZmilitary1
The head of French intelligence, Eric Vido, was dismissed on March 31, 2022 because
French special operations forces have failed to evacuate French intelligence officers from Mariupol.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7551483.html
On the prospects of a military scenario in Ukraine
1. The EU wants to achieve victory in Ukraine by military means.
2. NATO will continue to deploy troops on the western borders of Russia and Belarus.
3. A training program for instructors to use NATO equipment for the war in Ukraine will be launched on the territory of NATO countries.
4. Deliveries of air defense systems have already begun to Ukraine, and in the near future – anti-ship missile systems, not to mention the supply of heavy and light armored vehicles. Then there are self-propelled guns, heavy artillery, MLRS and aviation.
5. The United States and Britain consider it undesirable to continue negotiations with Russia.
6. Both the US and the UK articulate the thesis that the war in Ukraine will go on for months or years.
The moral is simple.
The proxy war with the US and NATO on the territory of Ukraine will be a long one. Because the issue for its participants is much more than just Ukraine. The question of the future of the world order is being resolved.
The United States clearly counted on an economic blitzkrieg or internal turmoil in the Russian Federation, which were supposed to undermine the ability of the Russian Federation to continue its operation in Ukraine. Since nothing like this happened (the Russian economy withstood the first blow), and society, on the contrary, rallied against the external enemy, and support for the military operation in Ukraine not only did not decrease (even despite the losses), but on the contrary – increased – the United States is forced to change its plan of action.
Accordingly, the conflict is moving into a long-term stage, where the same goals will be tried to achieve over a longer distance before the consequences of this war for the United States and the EU become unacceptable. Therefore, the focus is on minimizing the conflict in Ukraine at the expense of Ukraine itself. The concept of “war to the last Ukrainian” in action. It seems that at the current stage of the same goals – internal turmoil/top coup or economic collapse, they will strive to achieve until the fall, when Biden’s situation in the United States may deteriorate significantly after the congressional elections, and the situation of most European governments will worsen due to the imminent economic downturn and growing recession. In this respect, the economies of all the participants in the war will be in a state of turbulence, waiting for the opponent to break first. In this case, Russia still has a serious trump card in reserve with emabrgo for the supply of gas to Europe, which will seriously collapse the standard of living in the EU and deal a monstrous blow to some sectors of European industry (the Germans assess this option as a path to the collapse of entire sectors of their own economy).
Accordingly, we must be prepared for a long-term conflict, where for the United States world hegemony is at stake, and for the Russian Federation its historical subjectivity, a truce in the spirit of “Minsk-2” will certainly not be able to resolve these cardinal contradictions, since you can only talk about any real agreements with the owners of Ukrainian puppets, and not with the owners of the with puppets who pull strings to imitate diplomatic subjectivity, which de facto they do not possess. Russia is indirectly fighting in Ukraine with the United States and NATO, which use a tool affiliated with the United States and NATO in the form of occupied Ukraine, where a completely puppet regime and its army are installed, which is imbued with Nazi ideology and armed by NATO countries. You can’t make peace with an instrument without making peace with the subject who owns it. The fact that all this is called CBO does not change the content of this conflict. In the end, no one has declared war on anyone and most likely will not. But within the framework of the ongoing Cold War and Ukraine, as one of the hot theaters of this war, this is exactly what a proxy war is between nuclear powers, which leaves on the agenda the scenario of a remake of the Karabakh crisis, when the risk of nuclear war can become really real.
Since the United States cannot back down in Ukraine (which would be another step towards losing global hegemony), it will try to force Russia to reduce its demands or abandon them, which is highly likely to lead to internal turmoil and the realization of goals that the United States failed to achieve in the first stage of the campaign. Therefore, the war will be prolonged on the same principle as it was prolonged against Assad, hoping that a combination of military and economic pressure will undermine the government’s position and a puppet government can be brought to power. The example of Syria, an immeasurably weaker country than the Russian Federation, shows that this pressure can be fought. The example of Iran, which was able to anticipate both the collapse of its economy and internal turmoil, is also clear.
The Russian Federation has much more opportunities to act under such pressure for a long time, fighting against the United States on several boards, where Ukraine is currently the most important, although not the only front.
Accordingly, with complacency about the timing of the SVO and the possibility of waging such a proxy war with limited means, we must end it.
———————————————
Glad I found this post from Colonel Cassad, which coincides with some of the points I made in my last post, mainly the long term nature of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine.
He made two additional very good points, one is the potential Russian gas cut off to Eurostan, a strategic blow to the Eurostan economy which Russia keeps as a “trump card,” the other one is the possibilities for a negotiated solution are over, the war is openly a proxy war with the West using Ukraine as a tool for their goals of breaking Russia, and negotiations with a puppet are out of the way for Russia.
The last paragraph is badly translated, I tried another translator which made more sense, with some (logical) editions. A Russian reading poster could help with a more accurate translation.
Accordingly, complacency about the timing of the SVO and the possibility of conducting such a proxy war with limited means, needs to come to an end
Lone Wolf
Lone Wolf –
Yes ; the general outline of Cassad‘s view is likely the (sad) path we are following
My only addition is NATO planners are likely developing a Ukie Army Group (20 brigades) in the Lemberg with eye towards a Counter offensive early next year. This 20 brigade Army is likely to be drawn from NATO (volunteers) and locals.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation spoke about another unsuccessful attempt for the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to save the commanders of the Ukrainian Nazis and foreign mercenaries.
The criminal Kyiv regime made another attempt to evacuate the leaders of the Ukrainian Nazis from Mariupol, this time by sea. This was told to journalists by the official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov.
A cargo ship registered in Dominica by a Fairhaven-based company has been attacked and sunk by Russian forces in the besieged Ukrainian port of Mariupol, according to a release from the firm.
Hit with artillery fire after it suspected the vessel in attempt to help “Azov” in Mariupol
According to him, late yesterday evening, the Ukrainian dry cargo vessel “Apache” under the Maltese flag followed in a caravan of ships from the Taganrog Bay to the Kerch Strait, after which, 30 km southeast of Mariupol, it abruptly changed its course and tried to break through to the blocked port of “Mariupol”, ignoring demands of Russian border ships to get in touch.
The dry cargo ship continued to move even after warning fire from the Russian fleet, so to block the ship it was necessary to open fire to kill.
“From 22.53 to 23.30, the ship of the Black Sea Fleet and border patrol ships opened artillery fire on the Apache dry cargo ship. As a result of a direct hit on the ship, a fire broke out in the stern of the ship,” Konashenkov said.
Only after that did the dry-cargo crew get in touch and confirm their readiness to fulfill all the requirements of the Russian sailors.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/04/09/nato-fails-to-evacuate-military-advisors-from-mariupol-in-dry-cargo-ship/
General Cloutier and the dungeons of Azovsta:
American combatants in Mariupol?
Persistent rumors that Lieutenant General of the United States Army Roger L. Cloutier, Jr., taken prisoner in Mariupol, are gaining ground. Reports about this went with a link to the well informed portal of American veterans, Veterans Today, and were picked up by many Internet resources. However, the Pentagon still responds to all inquiries from journalists about the capture of an American general in Ukraine with silence, which does not fit into its typical pattern of behavior.
The only conclusion suggests itself: the Pentagon is silent, because the truth can turn into an undesirable sensation for the US administration and will inevitably raise questions.
Question one. When did General Cloutier appear in Ukraine, and in particular in Mariupol? If his arrival took place long before the start of the special military operation (SVO), then this directly indicates that the preparation for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was carried out under the leadership of the US / NATO military and was carried out from the dungeons of Azovstal. True, the military reality turned to NATO in an unexpected direction.
Question two. How many advisers, i.e. NATO officers were on the general’s team? It would be nice if the answer to this question lists the specialization of the “big overseas brothers”: ground operations, air force operations, sabotage, information operations, etc. After that, the claims of advisers to receive a corridor from Mariupol should be rejected. These soldiers participated in the war as representatives of NATO and should be detained and interrogated. They are combatants, and this is a scandal.
The situation should also be considered from the international legal point of view. Of course, not in order to “bring NATO to clean water” and expect that the Secretary General of the Stoltenberg alliance will blush.
The fact of the unilateral transfer by the alliance of relations with the Russian Federation to the stage of war, which until now has been carefully concealed by Brussels, should be recorded. And if this fact becomes irrefutable, Russia will have grounds for a response. For example, for a devastating missile attack on a reloading hub in the Polish city of Rzeszow, through which Western weapons are massively delivered. Such a blow will put everything in its place. As they say, what they fought for, they ran into. The reaction to the blow of official Warsaw will also be very curious. Will it require the North Atlantic bloc to enter the war in Ukraine, or will the ever present Polish arrogance shrink to the state of September 17, 1939?
Of course, there are forces in Russia that are evasively referred to as the “peace party”, and, most likely, they will try to cover up this episode, which is inconvenient for NATO. The Pentagon is also interested in the same outcome. From the American side, information went that “General Cloutier died on March 28, 2022.” However, the Russian proverb “Maxim died, and to hell with him” will not work here. The story needs to be continued, so there is hope that the dead man will come to life and testify.
Source
https://www.fondsk.ru/news/2022/04/08/general-klote-i-podzemelja-azovstali-55942.html
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/04/08/general-cloutier-and-the-dungeons-of-azovstal/
@ J Guy
This is a gray area, and until there is no more info, it is better to let it rest.
AFAIK, I was the first one to post on the issue several threads ago, another poster replied to me Gen. Cloutier had surfaced in Turkey, where he is detached, denying his capture. Of course, a twit or Telegram can be placed from anywhere, even from Azovstal. I have not seen any more reliable info on the subject, better to let the Chechens “rescue” him, dead or alive, then take it from there.
Lone Wolf
Not that I really buy it, but here’s a social media post that’s going around on a few accounts tonight:
““There, at Azovstal, someone is sitting. important and secret.
Most likely, the announcement of the names of those very secret and important people will become a sensation in the coming week.”
I guess we’ll see.
Zelensky was on the CBS Tv program “60 Minutes” tonight. He made clear that Ukraine will not surrender Crimea and the Donbass to Russia in any negotiations. He was asked what “victory” meant to him. He did not want to answer it, saying he would keep the answer to himself, but it was clear that the answer is that victory to him means recovering Crimea and the Donbass. He may, therefore, see the present situation as the best or only way to achieve that end. In other words, he has gotten the war he yearned for (he sure acted before February as if this is what he wanted). Now, he needs to draw the whole world into it if there is any chance to achieve. (This clarification from him gives credence to the Russian claim that he planned to attack the Donbass on March 8, because it is in harmony with it, making it possibly true.)
Zelensky is a useful idiot for his war party handlers. Whatever he says he is just parroting his masters.
Regarding Cauldron Troop density:
Very roughly:
1) cauldron perimeter = 300km
2) RF bayonet strength in cauldron after reinforcing = 40,000
3) Ukie applies bayonet strength = 20,000
60,000 troops/300km front line = 200 troops/kilometer of front. So each kilometer of front line in the cauldron could be assigned to a company size formation.
question ? Is that level of troop density enough to fully secure the cauldron. ????
In the last 30 days cecen leader Kadarov notify press around 24 times the fall of Mariupol.
Target: Kiev
From two news sources we learned Commander-in-Chief of the RF Vladimir Putin has ordered the taking of Kiev. Ramzan Kadyrov made the announcement, referring to the “relevant order of Russian president Vladimir Putin.”
The first news source, reliable, is “Military Chronicle” (https://voenhronika.ru/), the second is Avia-pro.net (https://avia-pro.net/), which, though unreliable, provides a video of Kadyrov making the announcement.
https://voenhronika.ru/publ/vojna_na_ukraine/rossijskij_tank_vystrelil_v_upor_po_tolpe_soldat_vsu_totalnaja_zhest_na_ukraine_i_poslednie_svodki_na_den_11_aprelja_25_video_2022/60-1-0-11860
”…Kadyrov announced what many have already understood: “We will take Kiev and other cities, rest assured, our president is bringing everything to an end…”
https://avia-pro.net/news/kadyrov-anonsiroval-nachalo-nastupleniya-i-vzyatie-kieva
Kadyrov announced the start of the offensive and the capture of Kyiv
—————————————-
On less relevant but no less important news, same “Military Chronicle” link above, it was reported that,
Yesterday, the Slovak S-300 complex was destroyed with such difficulty obtained by Ukraine quite recently, it happened on the southern outskirts of the city of Dnepropetrovsk. He was unable to stop the Kalibr missile, for which the crew paid with his own lives. Four S-300 launchers and up to 25 personnel were also hit.
————————————-
Bye-bye, Slovak S-300 complex.
It took longer to transport it to Ukraine than to blow it up, unable to stop the Kaliber missiles that targeted it. Ukraine is now exposing their military personnel as cannon fodder, to keep the pretension of fighting a war, and secure the billions flowing to the rotten, corrupt, gluttonous Jewish oligarchs that rule 404. Just look at the Russian tank taking a turkey shot on a Ukrainian checkpoint (same link), after confusing the tank with one of their own.
Lone Wolf
Is Kadyrov the only source of the news from both sites? I ask because Kadyrov has in the past pressured Putin to act like Kadyrov wanted him to act at the time. I don’t know if he would be privy to this type of info. even though he participates with troops, if he is being the first to say it or perhaps pressuring publicly again.
@ tranquilocomp
Good question.
I rely on “Military Chronicle” report, more than “Avia.pro,” I posted both to show the news coverage is broad. Kadyrov is a good man, loyal, with a healthy ego that likes to perform on its own. The news make sense in the new context we are in, a new phase has started, original goals have been superseded, and as Colonel Cassad just reported, the new objectives are now out in the open.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7552279.html
Russian special operation is designed to put an end to the US course for domination in the world
The Russian special operation is designed to put an end to the US policy of domination in the world (c) LavrovA
more recently unspoken, strategic goal of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.
Although de facto and without statements it was clear that the outcome of the operation in Ukraine (no matter how long it lasts) will determine the contours of the future world order. It’s just that now it’s been announced openly.
We can say “an athlete from Russia has taken on increased obligations” – the voiced goal clearly shows that the conflict in Ukraine means something more than local tasks in the Ukrainian direction. And the campaign in Ukraine itself is certainly not a “war between Ukraine and Russia”, it is a US war against Russia, where the strategic goal of the United States is to defeat Russia and support the crumbling world hegemony. Russia seeks to defeat american puppets in Ukraine and therefore accelerate the destruction of American hegemony.
———————————-
Lone Wolf
Yes, the news makes sense.
“it is a US war against Russia, where the strategic goal of the United States is to defeat Russia and…”
I called it a “political cauldron” somewhere else in the vineyard (now long ago), the biggest political cauldron. Inexperienced men – yes, inexperienced, I’m sorry, which includes not reading the right books – did not see the writing on the wall after they read the two proposals. I don’t think I am the only who did see this other cauldron as soon as he finished reading (while reading). The political cauldron was almost entirely closed when the two proposals arrived. The only way out victoriously was to accept the two proposals with amendments. They only made mistakes in response (which still it would help to recognize), allowing Russia today to be in the position where it can defeat the entire West by just defeating Ukraine.
Thank goodness the march to Kiev has begun.
There are many tough talking Nazis that have appeared on Ukrainian TV shows announcing to the world how valueless the lives of many in the Dobass region are… that the area needs to be cleansed.
Oleksiy Arestovych has been that person. Would love to see how he handles question time over his irresponsible comments and actions during interrogation by RF.
This poor excuse for a human deserves what is coming for him.
Wow Nightvision. Reading your sitreps has been really enlightening. Having never had any interest whatsoever in war, warfare and anything military, I am now really impressed with the Russian military tactics and have learned a lot from you. I’m probably wrong here but I can see the qualitative difference between the shock and awe tactics of the USA UK and USA and the russian precision based on quality intelligence, deeply well thought out military know how and what looks like highly skilled, commited and intelligent leadership. God bless President Putin, Kolashenko (MOD Russia) and their soldiers.
A personal thankyou for the only reliable source of information I can find on what’s going on. Not just reliable, but highly detailed