Interesting news two days in a row. First, the Russian MoD did conclude that the explosions at the Russian airfield in Crimea were the result of a diversionary operation (I use the term “diversionary” in the Russian sense of “diversiia” meaning sabotage/wrecking). And today, the Russians have announced that they have arrested two employees of the Zaporozhiie nuclear plant (one guard and one engineer!) who were providing the Ukrainians with targeting coordinates and strike correction. Now Russia is warning that a major strike on this nuclear plant would have catastrophic consequences.
My purpose today is not to discuss the situation around the ZNP, but to treat this as a tip of a much bigger iceberg.
So far, only my friend Andrei Martyanov has mentioned the very real risks of sabotage and/or terrorist attacks by Ukrainian diversionary groups, including the possible sabotage of the Moskva cruiser and the attack on the airfield in Crimea. As usual, Andrei Martyanov is spot on. What I want to do next is to expand a little on this topic in my favorite bullet-style format.
- First, it is simply undeniable that the Ukronazi SBU/GUR have proven that they can, and have, conducted very effective diversionary attacks, including the murder of plenty of LDNR leaders. Sometimes the Ukronazis used special SBU/GUR units, other times they have successfully recruited locals (be it in the LDNR or Crimea) to conduct acts of sabotage and terrorism.
- Second, it is important to understand that while the SMO is not a real civil war, it has definite civil war ASPECTS, beginning with the undeniable reality that there are pro-Russian segments of the population in the Nazi occupied Ukraine but also that there are pro-Urkonazi segments of the LDNR/Russian population. Thus both sides have people capable and willing to help the other side, including anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian elements in LDNR/Russian controlled areas (including Crimea)
- Third, besides ideological motives and simple corruption, you have to understand that both the SBU/GUR and the Russian SVR/G(R)U have access to databases which allows them to blackmail a person on the other side into collaboration. They can use compromising information of any activity (past or present) which can, if made public, get a person in a lot of trouble, but they also can pressure family members, they can even directly threaten and cajole someone into collaboration. Finally, there are a lot of poor and destitute people on both sides, and they need money badly, maybe not to purchase a multi-million dollar yacht but to, for example, get medical treatment for a family member. Western special services are very good at spotting and using such people.
- Fourth, as with any other conflict, when a war occurs, there is going to be some people who will benefit from it, but there is always going to be those who will lose a lot and who might be really unhappy about that. Resentful people make for great recruits for special services (most Soviet defectors betrayed their country not for money, though some did, but because they fell unfairly treated by their superiors or the Soviet state).
- Five, special services are very skilled at 1) spotting vulnerabilities and 2) making use of them. Since, by definition, humans being humans, there will be such vulnerable people on both sides of the conflict.
- So far, the Ukrainians have already made extensive use of such diversionary tactics, while the Russians have not (at least as far as we know, and there is a lot we don’t know). The point is not to call one side “good” and the other “bad”, but to realize that both sides can, and will, use such special operations to disrupt the operations, and morale, of the other side.
Now one thing which will have a HUGE impact on this is the Russian decision to basically hand out Russian passports to any Ukrainian wanting one. No, I am NOT critical of this decision, which was made on both moral and pragmatic grounds, but I will point out that this decision will come at a very real cost: a sharp increase in the numbers of Russians citizens whose true loyalties lie not with Russia, but with the Euromaidan or even Ukronazi ideology. There are even such people in Russia proper!
The fact that such people are only a tiny fraction of the Russian population is irrelevant: all the SBU/GUR needs is a few, maybe a few tens, of such people.
And yes, of course, this is a direct challenge to the Russian intelligence and security agencies (SVR, FSB, GUSB/MVD, FSO, G(R)U and others). But the reality is this: no matter how good the Russian intelligence and security services are, you cannot catch absolutely everybody, and neither can you place all potentially suspicious people under 24/7 surveillance (even if you knew who these people are). The truth is that there will always be “leakers” who will successfully elude detection and interception. You can catch many hundreds of such people, but a few will always seep through the net and they will be used by the other side.
By the way, for the West and the Nazis in Kiev to declare that all the explosions in the LDNR/Russia (including Crimea) are the result of missile attacks makes perfectly good sense! Not only does it boost the morale of the Ukronazis (Wunderwaffe and all that), it shows the Western curators of the Nazi regime in Kiev how “effective” and “combat capable” the Ukrainian military still is. Last, but not least, giving the credit to missiles is a very logical way to try to move the spotlight away from saboteurs and terrorists. The Russians perfectly understand that, but the folks in the West apparently not, hence the systematic dismissal of the diversionary operation by so many commentators who prefer to daydream about some super-dooper missiles and other assorted Wunderwaffen and dismiss less “sexy” acts of simple sabotage.
Bottom line is this: if the SBU/GUR managed to recruit 2 employees of the ZNP, whom else do you think they might recruit in the future (or have already recruited)? Think about folks involved in technical maintenance, transportation, logistics, prisons and POW facilities. etc. etc. etc. Heck, the Ukies even tried to corrupt a Su-34 pilot and have him fly his Su-34 to the Ukrainian side in exchange for a EU passport and money. This SBU/GUR plot pathetically failed, and the Russians even managed to get some classified info about the Ukrainian air defenses, which were promptly demilitarized. However, the main reasons here are probably double: first, Su-34 pilots are definitely a highly motivated elite type, and they are also very closely monitored by Russian counter-intelligence services. So, maybe next time, the SBU/GUR needs to “aim” for a more modest and less protected target.
And who is to say that the next time around the SBU/GUR will fail?
Some will wonder why the Russians could not do in the Ukraine what they did in Chechnia. There are many key differences here, including:
- Chechnia is a tiny piece of land compared to the Ukraine and it is comparatively easy to “lock”
- Chechnia’s population is dwarfed by the Ukrainian population (even after millions left)
- There is no equivalent of Ahmad Hadji Kadyrov or his son Ramzan in the Ukraine
- Chechen Takfiris never had the kind of firepower or weapons the Ukronazis do
So no, the precedent of Chechnia does not in any way imply that the Nazis in the Ukraine will be as comparatively quickly defeated as the Takfiris were.
This is a major problem for Russia and, worse, this is a problem which will not go away anytime soon.
The only thing Russians can do is to 1) prepare for a very long counter-intelligence and counter-diversionary operations lasting many years and 2) accept the reality of war for what it is and not freak out the next time the Ukronazis blow up something, be it a ship, a train, an aircraft, a bridge or any other target in the LDNR or Russia.
The one good news the Russians also need to keep in mind is that most of such diversionary/terrorist attacks are still fundamentally part of PSYOPs and are mostly designed for PR effect. In terms of their actual impact on Russian military capabilities, it is close to zero, just like the Israeli strikes in Syria have made exactly *zero* difference on the ground in Syria. To really affect military operations you need to have a large, viable and sophisticated partisan/”stay behind” force, which the Ukrainians do not have, not by a long margin. Also, to really affect military operations, such diversionary tactics need to be carefully coordinated with “regular” friendly military forces (like the Soviet partisans during WWII who closely worked with the Soviet armed forces).
So yes, this is a problem, a very unpleasant one, one which will be hard to deal with, but not one which will affect Russian military operations. Even if the Ukronazis blow up both the Chernobyl AND Zaporozhiie NPs, this will not significantly affect the SMO or even the war between Russia and the united West. The entire Russian military is trained, and well trained, to operate in a hostile nuclear, chemical or bacteriological environment. As for Russian logistics, they are extremely sophisticated and highly redundant, so even if the Ukronazis blow up one node of the resupply network, it will be quickly fixed and/or easily replaced or bypassed.
That being said, I would personally recommend that we all mentally prepare for what is almost certainly about to happen in the not too distant future. If we understand what such operation can and cannot achieve we will see them in a sober, pragmatic way, and not cave in to the hysterics (by many sides, including the Russian 6th column) which will inevitable follow any such attack.
Andrei
Addendum: with so many commentators freaking out about a potential meltdown of all the nuclear reactors at the ZNP, I would say this: the reactors themselves are far tougher to strike than the used nuclear fuel storage facilities which are not nearly as well protected. Again, the real danger is not the one we instinctively think of first.
Interesting article,but what i would say is with those attacks in Crimea thats a line crossed that should not be tolerated,those decision making centers should have been hit and hard,also Russian Special forces can use those tactics against the Ukrainians,some of their leaders should have been taken out a long time ago and missiles put through the front door of SBU in Kiev.also hit more targets in the West of Ukraine,i would have expected by now local partisan groups to have acted against the Ukrainian military in places like Odessa.
Yeah, well, good thing you are not in the Kremlin.
What is is about the first comment to be posted again???
;-)
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
Then good for Russia’s enemies that they can keep causing destruction and terror to Russia and Russia allies, and even contaminate large parts of Slavic lands, while not suffering any themselves. This means they won’t have a reason to be detered from continuing as they have. This is perfect ground for them to test their tactics and carrying out destruction, and get away with it.
….out a limb, I believe Jojo’s comment reflects that the major countries, ie Brit, US, that have no skin in the game and can let generations of Ukrainians die……they are not being held accountable on their own soil, they have noting to lose…..they can keep doubling down.
Russia moved some jets and missiles to Kaliningrad……but as we see with Crimea what’s to stop the Brits training some Finn’s along with Ukrainians to infiltrate and well….. how does Russia stop them training an endless supply of sabatours?
Cheers M
Yes, it IS painful to watch the killing of innocent civilians. And I also catch myself thinking “why can’t you just drop some high-power rockets on those ukro-nazis that shell the cities with petal mines and, especially, the towns like Nikopol from which they are bombing the nuclear station. But, unfortunately, these (removed overboard language violation) are located in the middle of the civilian population and Russians are very careful about avoiding bombing such areas. More importantly, they are fighting NOT ONLY ukro-nazis themselves but ALL the European countries that are inexplicably SILENT even when the danger of a slow annihilation awaits them directly should the nuclear spill occurs. But, on the other hand, what could one expect from these debil masses even after they have already experienced the destructive politics of their governments following sanctions they imposed against THEMSELVES! They are STILL silent when their pockets get emptied by fast growing prices and inflation TODAY, so no wonder they are not even able to think about tomorrow…
a ‘dirty bomb’ in Ukraine would eventually kill millions would it not be prudent then to take out Kiev leadership and any other high priority targets even with some losses to civilian lives be worth it to prevent millions dying ?
a ‘dirty bomb’ in Ukraine would eventually kill millions
Nonsense. Look up the ACTUAL casualties from the Chernobyl accident for a reality check
The Chernobyl accident was limited to 1 GW reactor out of 4. Followed by damage limitation of an entire Soviet apparatus in peace time.
Here we are talking about the potential meltdown of 6 of of 6, 1xGW reactors, by systematically damaging the cooling/support systems of the plant. In a warzone. Located near one of the largest food chambers of the world.
You are making an irrealistic assumption, that 6 reactors would all go into meltdown.
So far, not even the external housing for these reactors has been touched.
Also, the Russians will (have already?) deactivate the ZNP until things normalize.
So there is no reason to panic or worstcase.
This is a real problem
not a nuclear Armageddon in the making
Thanks. I guess the real Ukie goal is to force a safety shut down of the plant. The loss of 6 GW of electricity would be severely disruptive in the region, which mostly is under Russian control at the moment.
Exactly!
That and more PR about the ‘invincible Ukronazi forces”
I believe it should be dangerous to stop all the reactors. I should ask my son, who has worked as safety engineer in PP ( in France).
the worry comes from simply not knowing what event might take place in worst case much death or possible miminum death but how do you gamble on it , didn’t the US decide exactly that regarding Iraq WMD , that they just could not gamble but chose prevention ?
Sorry, Saker, maybe I am wrong but it seems to me that you are taking a bit of a simplistic approach in your critique. I have read from Russian analysts that deactivating the plant is NOT an option because it will take it out of commission for good (or a minimum of 10 years!). This plant supplies most of the Donbass territory with electricity. Except, Ukronazis have ALREADY bombed other plants as well – should Russians stop and deactivate them all then? Is this a reasonable solution? Isn’t this exactly what they want – lights out, life stopped?
right, and maybe 12 years…
thus, this threaten is not only dangerous now, but is way to punish for ever the people of Donbass who have been resisting against US drived Ukronazists, and defeated it.
There is a lot which so-called ‘Russian analysts’ say both on Telegram and on YT.
Let’s see what happens and who was right.
Time will show.
Cheers
My understanding is that 4 of 6 reactors are shut down; however, the issue is always in maintaining cooling systems. While it makes sense to just shut the whole plant down, doing so has a strong potential for destabilizing the grid across all of, but especially, the eastern and southern Ukraine. Power plants require electricity coming in as well as going out.
But yes, the most realistic danger is the spent fuel storage. Some of it needs circulating coolant water; some of it is dry casked. A release of these is much less catastrophic than a meltdown in a reactor. The flip side is that having spent fuel exploded by artillery or missiles is not something we really know the results of because it has never happened. It may also be complicated by the possible warehousing of Westinghouse spent fuel rods which are far nastier than the Russian fuel.
Ukraine and the US were building a spent fuel storage facility (instead of sending it to Russia for reprocessing) at Chernobyl that may never have been completed. It was delayed during Covid and supposed to open in 22. Rumors that I can’t verify suggest that the US was/is holding a bunch of spent fuel at ZNPP. It would make sense that the US was using Ukraine as a nuclear waste dump. And we should probably expect less than excellent safety and maintenance measures with Ukrainian/American spent fuel handling. The real money is in where the corners are cut.
spot on, thank you!
Well, I thought the US were experts in depleted uranium munitions and basically polluted the Middle East for decades following daddy-Bush’s exploits against Iraq.
From memory there was some retired German doctor/scientist that was ‘cancelled’ for investigating and taking samples back to Germany for analysis. I’m not sure what the birth defects in Iraq are these days from this odious practice. Probably on par with the chemical mess in Southeast Asia from the Vietnam era.
As disgusting a scenario as it is, perhaps there is an opportunity in this to nicely re-package the depleted materials for re-postage back to the usual suspects via hypersonic postage carrier?
As for the ‘not quite’ civil war — it reminds me of the ex-colonial Indian-Pakistan partition.
“Depleted uranium” bullets were first used in Yugoslavia against the Serbs. Supposedly they packed more punch because they were more massive than lead. Some Serbs were attempting to sue the US. I don’t know how that turned out since the US funds the Hague.
I have to wonder how the DU ammo is manufactured, stored, handled, and whether the armorers are shielded while loading A-10s or other aircraft. I also read somewhere that the DU shells are “on fire” as they leave the barrel, so perhaps there are radioactive mixed gases.
Yes – bombs and nuclear reactor fuel are not a good combination. After generating 1 GW of nuclear energy for a year, you end up with more than 200 kg of plutonium along with an assortment of other radioactive isotopes. Some are quite dangerous even after decades.
Considering that much of this waste stays at the power plants, the situation is not a trifling matter. Fukushima had/has many tons of plutonium, cesium 137, strontium 90, etc that required active cooling. When the system is working, all is fine, but if it is damaged or without power for cooling, much can go wrong.
Although people worry more about nuclear bombs, most of the fallout radiation is gone after a few months. But nuclear power plants and stored waste are another matter. Death counts from Chernobyl were not so high officially, but some European countries showed a serious spike in thyroid cancer in age groups that were young at the time. There were other problems as well.
I definitely agree with not panicking. There are more panic topics around now than one can shake a stick at, and only a cool head will see us through. But it is good to know the facts. In war time, nuclear power plants may end up being one of the most serious contamination problems.
True, this is what I would have done, stopping them. It is not difficult. The difficult part would be to start them again due to poisoning of fuel, but that is a minor issue as compared to other things.
Check the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Life went on. As far as I know, there is no way on earth to “decontaminate” entire cities that were nuked. Certainly the Japanese civilians who survived stayed there and rebuilt their homes, completely innocent of the lingering hard radiation.
It has been a long time since I read anything about life after a nuke, but the point is people continued to live there. The elites may not fear radiation as they can afford effective masks, pressurized homes with air locks, have food stocks, etc.
We missed you and your great analyses. Very good to have you back
thank you for these very kind words!
Your staff did a very good job, too, while you were gone, but we still missed you.
EXACTLY. Another couch-analyst :-)
SO easy to fight when you do not know the realities. Which are very sophisticated weapons and 8-years of NATO training. What the Englishman describes is partisan/guerilla war when the real enemy is weak and limited. But they are not YET. Time will come though.
I think you’ve been a bit unfair to Englishman, he’s on your side. I regularly read his comments, being English myself. He’s frustrated, like me, about what’s going on. We both support Russia and can’t wait for the poisonous UK/US to be neutralised. Don’t forget, we (ordinary people) are suffering big time financially but we still support Russia,
Things are never simple. No easy solutions. It is damned if you do damned if you don’t situation. Also killing civilians is wrong, no matter what.
Scott Ritter makes a valid point in his today’s interview with Regis Tremblay that hitting Kiev and killing Zelensky may be counterproductive as it would result in military uncertainty and even in renewed support from the West. Currently Zelensky is butting heads with his ministers, and Kiev is slowly but surely loosing western support. A restraint, even at some cost today may work well in Russia’s favor in longer run.
Please don’t quote Ritter or anything he has to say on this blog.
Not a rule, just a request.
Thank you
Although you disagreed on his one analysis, Scott did provide a lot of good and accurate info. There was a lot of info that was predicted inaccurately across the board by analysts particularly during the beginning of this conflict, I think Scott is still in our boat.
Do you not understand the message? These are dangerous times so be carefull what you think is for real. For me personally i always follow this blog and only this blog. And yes it was harder with the break. I follow Andrei Martyanov to but trough Sakerblog but i have hard times understand his videoblog. I prefer reading which i can translate. Most of the analyses i read several times.
This blog with the comments are so clear to me.
And the way how Andrei puts it all together and explaining it is logic.
It amazes me evertime i read a new analyse. Every European citizen should read it.
the world would be better for reading the Saker { the truth will set you free }
I agree completely , enough virtue signalling and allowing the enemy to do as it likes , partying and meeting with impunity with foreign leaders who are planning the destruction of Russia in Kiev . I think the US is rather happy with the way the war is going, it is starting to resemble the seven years of conflict in Syria where Russia’s “allies” , Israel and Turkey act with impunity. Only yesterday they agreed on more cooperation. Fight to win and win bigly , not this one hand behind the back Mr. nice guy stuff. If I was a Russian I would be furious with Putin. The Russian problem is that ending the war is not within their power unless they withdraw . Declaring a new border somewhere in Ukraine will just replicate the situation that occurred in Donbass for many years. If Russia takes the West of Ukraine they will be consumed in an insurgency. The war will end when NATO , the US decides it will end , they have the power to drag this out for decades. Meanwhile as the article states , the drone and on ground attacks within Russia and Crimea are only just getting started, how many decades will the Russian people be willing to be involved in this?
After 1945 the US empire also hired nazis to commit terrorist attacks against Russians:
“Under Operation Sunrise, some 5,000 anti-communist Eastern European and Russian personnel were trained for operational missions at a camp at Oberammergau in 1946, under the command of General Sikes and SS General Burckhardt. This and related initiatives supported insurgencies in areas such as Ukraine, which were not entirely supressed by the Soviets until 1956.”
https://irp.fas.org/world/germany/intro/gehlen.htm
“The BND, the West German intelligence service under former Wehrmacht Gen. Reinhard Gehlen, formed a new relationship with Bandera. It was a natural union. During the war, Gehlen’s senior officers argued that the USSR could be broken up if only Germany wooed the various nationalities properly. Bandera had continued lines into the Ukraine,
and in March 1956 he offered these in return for money and weapons.71
…
AERODYNAMIC’s first phase involved infiltration into Ukraine and then ex-filtration of CIA-trained Ukrainian agents. By January 1950 the CIA’s arm for the collection of secret intelligence (Office of Special Operations, OSO) and its arm for covert operations (Office of Policy Coordination, OPC) participated. Operations in that year revealed “a well established and secure underground movement” in the Ukraine that was even “larger and more fully developed than previous reports had indicated.” Washington was especially pleased with the high level of UPA training in the Ukraine and its potential for
further guerrilla actions, and with “the extraordinary news that … active resistance to the Soviet regime was spreading steadily eastward, out of the former Polish, Greek Catholic provinces.”97
The CIA decided to expand its operations for “the support, development, and exploitation of the Ukrainian underground movement for resistance and intelligence purposes.” “In view of the extent and activity of the resistance movement in the Ukraine,” said OPC Chief Frank Wisner, “we consider this to be a top priority project.”98
…
In 1957 alone, with CIA support, Prolog broadcast 1,200 radio programs totaling 70 hours per month and distributed 200,000 newspapers and 5,000 pamphlets. In the years following, Prolog distributed books by nationalist Collaborators
| 89
Ukrainian writers and poets. One CIA analyst judged that, “some form of nationalist feeling continues to exist [in the Ukraine] and … there is an obligation to support it as a cold war weapon.” The distribution of literature in the Soviet Ukraine continued to the end of the Cold War.””
http://www.archives.gov/iwg/reports/hitlers-shadow.pdf
All true!
Also, we know that NATO created “stay behind forces” in western Europe, and we can expect them to try the same thing in the Ukraine.
Thank you
You’re welcome!
BTW the EU calls it “Clausewitzian influence”:
“Hard power politics – Clausewitzian influence over alienated state regimes. Some alien-
ated regimes will still exist in 2020 – the key uncertainty here being the Kremlin. If so, we will need to retain a capability to meet their deliberate challenges to our vision of the world. This will require hard military power, but also an increased focus on asymmetrical forms of destruction, notably in the cybersphere. This is of major concern to the East-
ern members of the EU, and if the ESDP is unable to provide this then they will turn to NATO or directly to the US.”
https://web.archive.org/web/20120111092046/http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/What_ambitions_for_European_defence_in_2020.pdf
NATO’s stay-behind, Gladio, was responsible for the Strategy of Tension all across Europe, from Italy, Spain to Germany.
Gladio is being revived, armed with the missing weapon deliveries, and for exactly the same purpose, across Europe.
For any national Gov’t to turn a blind eye to this is nuts!
Including ‘Brabant mad killers'(tueurs fous du Brabant), who killed dozens innocents civilians in supermarkets in the 80’s just before the closing hour, in Brussels and around.The ‘hold up for money’ was supposed to be the ‘plausible deniability’, of course nobody believed you kill dozens of innocents during a long period, for simply stealing the cashier.The enquiry never went anywhere, journalists who were approaching the truth have been killed or missing.It is now confirmed that ‘gendarmerie'(military police), was infiltrated by far right gladio.Belgium and Italy are the two easiest countries to destabilize as they always have ‘weak’ govts due to the ‘coalitions’ which are mandatory(not like in France or in US UK).Why Italy and Belgium because communists or real socialists à la ‘maduro chavez’ were approaching 25 – 30 % of the votes and were anti nato.
The ensuing chaotic investigation failed to catch them or even make serious inroads into solving the case. This led to a parliamentary inquiry and public discussion, both of which revolved around the possibility that the gang members were Belgian or foreign state security elements either carrying out covert missions (disguising targeted assassinations) or conducting political terrorism.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brabant_killers
The Gladio was (is?) also operating in Portugal before and after the 1974 Revolution, mainly through a sub-division of Aginter Press. Lead by french capitain Yves Guérain-Sérac, it did nothing book-related instead trained far-right terrorists with the help of Salazar’s Fascist regime via PIDE and was undoubtedly involved in assassinations both in Portugal and elsewhere in Europe, as much as in the Portuguese colonies in Africa. Among its victims were Humberto Delgado, portuguese opposition leader and presidential candidate, Amílcar Cabral, leader of PAIGC, and Eduardo Mondlane, leader of Mozambique’s FRELIMO.
Excatly. I suspect there isn’t that many sovereign goverments in Europe.
It is known that CIA sent back Lt General Reinhardt Gehlen in the shadow of West Germany’s government where he organized the up rise from 1956 in Budapest and 1968 in Prague. We all know the outcome.
I think that was main part of American plan. They thought Russia would use something like 50% of army and blitz Ukraine like Operation Bagratian. The stay behind and guerrilla forced would bleed Russia for a long time. The confusion of the DoD and US generals is palpable.Even a one sided war like this, the losing side, the Ukrainians will get a few licks in.
Saker I’m sure Russia has “stay hidden” forces planted in the uSA & UK. It seems like an appropriate time to get them to do a bit of damage in reply ! I’d like to see & hear that happening & what better way is there to put an end to their playtime.
So why would Russia want to escalate US involvement at this point? I see no benefit and you have not provided any. It would have zero military impact.
What the ukrops are doing is the equivalent of the Chechen and Islamist terrorism of 20 or so years ago.
that is a quite useless comment, why post it?
But why, most people remember the Chechens terrible attack on the theater, Nord, the school Budjonnyisk, kids, the hospitals, and other deeds.Some aircraft
even crashed, Several 100s of civilians died, very cruel.
Ir were a terrible setbacks for the Russians, among others, and Putin became very angry. So I don’t see your argument, as “useless” ? For what reason ?
Because the two wars and the two peoples are totally different.
Besides, what is the value of a single statement, however positive it may be?
What does it contribute?
Exactly, and why was it posted on then. Mod please. I feel offended offended knowing that Muslim Spetsnaz Shock troop were the ones who were dispatched onto the Afghan Presidents Palace in 79-80, seizing it after a shoot-out resulting in the President, his son and the entire palace contingency dead. Very clean operation. There were many.
In 2014, the Muslim -Z-Spetznaz Chechen special forces went to the Donbass and severely defeated and destroyed the Ukie armies at Donbass International Airport and the showdown at Debaletsevo. By 2015, Kiev’s military was helpless.
On February 24, first ones called into action by Shoigu and the Russian MoD were the ‘Islamic’ Chechen Spetznaz deep into enemy territory with a list of 2000 names of officials to be liquidated. Not all of that plan went occording to plan, resulting in casualties and Shoigu and Putin to retire/punish more than over one hundred.
The Chechens spetznaz, along with the Naval troops, fought for Mariupol and defeated the wild eyed and lunatic Azov and hangers-on.
Now the Islamic Chechens are at the nuclear plant among other front. Where ever the Muslims(Chechens) are, one can rest assured, inshAllah, God will bring victory to the rightous Russian people, Slav and Islamic.
It is a grave error to conflate “Islam” with “Islamist terrorism”
That is why I recommend using the term “Takfiri” which is much more accurate than “Muslim” or “Islam” (which mean different things, by the way)
I completely agree with you.
Chechens are true brothers to the people of the Donbass.
They are heroes.
Unfortunately. IT WORKS!
The “Iron Curtain” borders were closed NOT to keep people out, but to prevent diversionaries getting in.
And even that took a couple years of terrorist acts for the governments to close the borders.
YET, almost every citizen – even those who lived the time – will today tell you the closed borders /the physical barbed wire stuff, not visa or passport policies/ were to prevent them from “leaving to the West”. A complete lie. Yet that lie became “fact”. Were you to dispute it, you may even end up in jail in some of those countries…
This will be a long war:
“Maxim Fomin, a fighter of the Vostok Battalion (DPR), says that Russia is waging a protracted world war on the local Ukrainian battlefield, the training ground from Kherson to Kharkov.
Wars of this magnitude do not end quickly, they go slowly, with operational pauses, slow offensives, with varying success: someone rolls back and attacks again…
The conflict in Ukraine will not end in the fall, even if the United States refuses to help Ukraine.
Russia has staked on a long war – there is no large-scale general mobilization, no tactical nuclear strikes are being carried out on the territory of Ukraine, although there were rumors on television …
The stake is on a long conflict that turns into a hybrid war. Kyiv is intact along with the presidential palace, administrative buildings, the SBU, etc. Such a half-measure hybrid war… Whether this is good or bad, he does not give any assessments now, but simply state this fact.
So get ready – we will talk about the war for a long time.
https://t.me/s/voenkorKotenok
I don’t see how it can be that long. The Ukranian army has run out of planes. It is now running out of heavy weapons, ammunition, fuel and most of all, soldiers. Even if the US keeps supporting them, there is a limit to how much money and obsolete weapons it can supply. The EU has already stopped their supply chain. At some point the whole thing will just collapse. As someone said “slowly at first, then suddenly” it will happen.
The author write, “Even if the Ukronazis blow up both the Chernobyl AND Zaporozhiie NPs, this will not significantly affect the SMO or even the war between Russia and the united West.”
I disagree. I can’t imagine that Russia will simply ignore 6 possible nuclear meltdowns taking place simultaneously without doing everything they can to try and get the nightmare under control. On the other hand, the Ukrainian, European and US governments will, in my opinion, do absolutely nothing to help. What I DO imagine is that the US, Europe and Ukraine will make targets of the Russians who respond to the emergency, and laugh the whole while. Didn’t the former President of Russia say recently that nuclear accidents can happen in European countries as well? What we don’t need are 20 or 30 or more nuclear meltdowns all taking place all over Europe at the same time.
In 2014 Tymoshenko said that 8 million Russians living in Ukraine should be killed with nuclear weapons. That’s NATO war tactics. NATO also contaminated Iraq, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Libya with dirty bombs made of radioactive waste.
I disagree. I can’t imagine that Russia will simply ignore 6 possible nuclear meltdowns taking place simultaneously without doing everything they can to try and get the nightmare under control
Did I EVER suggest that the Russians would ignore such an event?????
This is a pure strawman argument.
I said that it would not significantly affect the SMO, big difference.
Did you not read what I wrote, or did you chose to ignore it?
It may not significantly affect the SMO, but it would certainly ruin the lives of many more of the residents of Ukraine. As one of those, I am praying it doesn’t go down that way.
What about this claimed CIA report to US congress? This text specifies the following:
“[Forwarded from NEZYGAR]
In a closed report of the CIA analytical department for the US Congress, which was read out last Friday in Washington, it is said that the moral state of the Armed Forces and elite-clan groups of the South and Southeast Ukraine is extremely low, in addition, there are data on separate negotiations of industrial and economic groups of Odessa and the Odessa region with the GUR GS of the Russian Federation on surrender without a fight, in the event of a quick environment of the Nikolaev region and the beginning of the Odessa coverage.
According to the CIA experts and analysts, which are confirmed by the technical data of the NSA, the reserve of strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be enough for 5-6 weeks, taking into account the organization of Zagragdi Rods and authorizing more mass executions, sabotage orders of soldiers and officers for 7-8, but not more.
The experience of the last 45 days has shown that the supply of modern weapons did not have any productive effect, except for the increase in death among the civilian population of Donbass.
According to the results of the meeting of the Congress committee, it was decided to activate the entire US intelligence community for the subversive activities of sleeping and mothballed agents in the Russian Federation, which were introduced or recruited from 2006 to 2020.
In particular, to activate the work on sabotage of the government, Congress considers it possible and necessary to activate the entire network within the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Culture, and the Ministry of Economic Development.
For heating an internal split in the regions and large cities, millionaires decided to use the possibilities of lobbyists from pharmaceuticals among the Ministry of Health with an emphasis on vaccination, revaccination, as well as a return to co -covid restrictions in a number of regions of the Russian Federation.
In addition, the congressmen decided to correctly activate the foci of social stress through regional separatism and extremism in the media and social networks. All of the above events should go into the peak phase of development by early September.
This will help to weaken the Kremlin’s negotiation position as much as possible, according to a bicameral consensus, during negotiations on the surrender of Ukraine in the second half of November.”
So US CIA and Congress declare that they have a lot of 5th, or 6th columnists inside finance, culture, health, economic development ministries and they will active some kind of a social disruption campaign in the social medias. Also regional separatism and extremism. Plausible?
The Helsinki commission (a US government organization) declared recently they will “decolonize” Russia, so guess this is what that means.
https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39333
”during negotiations on the surrender of Ukraine in the second half of November.”
They just released their planning:
Ukrop army will be destroyed by the end of sept.
Then strangely just after the midterms, they want to ‘talk’..is it possible that if the gop takes both House + Senate, we switch from the dem neocons (Nuland, Blinken) to gop neocons, like Pompeo and Bolton? No big difference except the gop is more anti China’ than anti Russia, eventhough of course they are not going to capitulate and get rid of ZE so fast, or they lose face, but can say’ it is all dem fault’ etc…
Erdogan is in Llev today, he is not crazy he does not want a civil nuke catastrophy into the black sea.Erdogan is very good at blackmailing.
A midterm loss has no effect on appointments at state, DoD, CIA, etc. What it will do is throw US domestic politics into almost certain chaos. At this point a congressional investigation of the Mar-a-Lago raid and at least threats of impeachment are almost guaranteed. It’s hard to say whether that will make things better or worse. It will make them less predictable.
It’s a pathetic matchup: grand masters of chess vs. unpredictable clowns who think pushing all chips to the front is a legitimate chess move. Void of any strategic planning, just shooting all guns simultaneously. All they can create is rectal gases that keeps getting louder and smellier. Some leaders are having a really good laugh about their enemies. Just be patient and watch them shoot themselves in the foot, lung, etc.
According to unimperator, cia believes Ukraine war will be over by end of September. Zaparozhia authorities have set September 11 for referandum to join Russia. I assume they have consulted Russia military prior to setting the referendum date. It appears that Russia military expects Ukraine war to be over by early September. Don’t be surprised if suddenly Ukrainians surrender and dump 10s or 100s of thousands of POWs + responsibility of feeding and heating of a bankrupt nation on the lap of Russia.
@ Saker
Thanks, as always, for yet another insightful piece.
“…Even if the Ukronazis blow up both the Chernobyl AND Zaporozhiie NPs, this will not significantly affect the SMO or even the war between Russia and the united West…”
———————————-
It might not affect the end result of the SMO, which, as you stated in the post before this one, was won in the first “7 to 10 days” of the SMO, and I agree.
However, we might see an expansion of the war between Russia and the united West, since Russia might consider blowing Zaporozhia “as a nuclear attack on the country.”
I pulled this recent article from my bookmarks, for your comments.
————————————————————
https://riafan.ru/23586793-_u_vashingtona_budet_15_minut_leonkov_o_posledstviyah_obstrela_vsu_zaporozhskoi_aes
“Washington will have 15 minutes”: Leonkov on the consequences of the Ukrainian Armed Forces ‘ shelling of Zaporizhia NPP
“…According to the military expert, the Russian leadership should warn Washington that a man-made disaster that may occur as a result of the shelling of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant by the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be regarded by Russia as a nuclear attack on the country. As a result of this provocation, territories within a radius of 1000 km, including part of the Crimean Peninsula, may be at risk of infection. In this case, Moscow will immediately take decisive measures against the West.
“Washington and London should try very hard to ensure that the NPP does not suffer, otherwise they will have 15 minutes and 5 minutes. I’m talking about the flight time of Avangard to the decision-making centers, ” Leonkov explained.
The effective shelling of the Zaporizhia NPP by the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lead the West to unexpected but harsh consequences. Such a provocation can cause a major international conflict, as well as a global catastrophe.
———————-
The decision-making centers are pushing Russia to escalate the conflict. They will deny any input in any attack that goes nuclear, as they are denying any input in the direction of the war. The responsibility for any escalation will fall on Russia.
————————————-
The entire Russian military is trained, and well trained, to operate in a hostile nuclear, chemical or bacteriological environment. As for Russian logistics, they are extremely sophisticated and highly redundant, so even if the Ukronazis blow up one node of the resupply network, it will be quickly fixed and/or easily replaced or bypassed.
———————————–
Given the majority of the troops are from the LDNR, and they are not, by far, as well equipped as the Russian troops, the effect on the SMO from a nuclear spill will be felt dearly. Many of the LDNR units don’t even have armored vests, let alone protection against bio-chem or nuclear war.
———————————-
That being said, I would personally recommend that we all mentally prepare for what is almost certainly about to happen in the not too distant future. If we understand what such operation can and cannot achieve we will see them in a sober, pragmatic way, and not cave in to the hysterics (by many sides, including the Russian 6th column) which will inevitable follow any such attack.
———————————-
Good recommendation to make, one step ahead. Regardless, we will see the trolls pouring in shouting Russia’s defeat is around the corner. Hysteria is one the most exploitable emotions, as it is the hallway to madness.
Lone Wolf
I do not believe that the Russian General Staff will place an equal sign between, say, the sabotage of a nuclear facility or even a missile strike on it to a military nuclear strike. These are totally different phenomena and while both are “nuclear” they are different on all levels. The main one being that such an attack will not significantly affect Russian military operations, which a nuclear strike would.
The Saker on August 18, 2022 · at 4:13 pm EST/EDT
Thanks.
I have my doubts about the potential Russian response, needed clarification.
Lone Wolf
before the coming winter is over … the EU will be shattered and on its knees before Putin begging for mercy!! {provided nuclear winter hasn’t descended first”}
Thanks for that insight. I wondered about this since Lone Wolf posted it a few days ago.
It seems out of keeping with the measured treatment of provocations we have seen in Syria and the Donbass in the recent past.
Apparently there are some hot-heads in Russia as well as here. I hope they can be kept on leashes, unlike our own.
I hope you are right, but Shoigu said that the operstions of the AFU are planned, coordinated and supervised by US/NATO/UK apecialists. I would consider an attack on a nuclear reactor using Western provided hardware and C3I as a nuclear attack on the region by the West. It is very serious stuff in the current context, I think. The sponsors of all the Western approved atrocities going on in Ukraine need to suffer at home otherwise there will be no end to those remote controlled conflicts.
Maybe not ==, but ~= is close enough.
The deliberate contamination of widespread areas has a name. It’s called “weapons of mass destruction”, and it does not matter if you achieve that by dropping a bomb or releasing radiation from a spent fuel storage facility. Nukes is nukes.
What Z knows is such a radiation release will freeze Russian troops in place because they will not invade territory that glows in the dark.
So, yeah, God forbid this should happen but if it does I would not bet the farm on Russian restraint.
I have doubts about the difference in area of effect between an artillery shell on a spent rod and an airburst explosion where all material is vaporized. AFAIK alpha emitting particles on a battlefield need to be airborne and inhaled to be a danger. Sitting out for a week would cause both half-life decay reduction in danger and cause the remnants down wind to settle to a degree that meaningful inhalation would be a trivial risk compared to airborne lead.
«the shelling of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant by the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be regarded by Russia as a nuclear attack on the country. As a result of this provocation, territories within a radius of 1000 km, including part of the Crimean Peninsula»
I have read that entirely by coincidence the ukrainian fascists bomb the plant only when the winds blow east, in particularly north-east (Donbas) or south-east (Crimea).
What does ukraine and Afghanistan have in common? The people who rule both are rotten products of the US.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
That is a side effect of Russia’s too slow – yes, too slow – and single vector operations in Ukraine. The SMO fiction proves costly. Around 20k Russians dead or severly wounded – more than nine years Afghanistan cost. And Russia is running out of manpower. The calls for “volunteers” are getting louder and louder in Russia. Moving too slow and with too little forces provides all kind of opportunities for NATO/Ukro unconventional warfare. The only “good” thing is that Russia can now learn to wage war against Western equipped and trained forces. But it makes also clear that without calling up the reserves or even general mobilization there is no way Russia can successfully conduct a war (both offensive and defensive) against “real” NATO forces. Let’s see. Maybe Russia opens a second (Northern) front soon.
Those are false numbers. Losses of Russ, LPR and DPR are around 6000+. Ukraine has more than 230,000 losses.
Russians did all the fighting in Afghanistan and lost 15,000+. U. S coalition in Afghanistan lost 3500 troops 4,000+ contractors and ANA lost 70,000+. Doesn’t even include suicides and died if wounds etc.
There is no way of knowing Russian losses as everything is tight lipped. By everything I’ve read and heard, 20k in losses seems reasonable. 230K Ukie losses seems to be highest count possible but most likely a lot lower than that, slightly under 100k is just a guess.
This is probably the most informed group of people on the subject matter gathered in one place, I think if there are trolls the Mod shouldn’t feek the need to protect us. Thanks anyways.
Losses = KIA+WIA+Captured+Deserters
Ukraine has already confirmed total losses of circa 1k\day averaged. It’s reasonable to assume that Ukraine would report the lower bound and it would not include unconfirmed losses (units that disappear as they all ran off). Not including those creates a lower bound of around 170k.
I can imagine that the AFU would be able to have fielded roughly that number of fresh raw conscripts. I think the real question is not “When will AFU run out of manpower”, but, “When will almost the whole military be unseasoned, unskilled conscripts”. I think they are about 60-70% manned by conscripts at this point by assuming that the bulk of the losses were achieved before reserves\conscripts were fielded.
You could very well be right with that count. Regarding man power, the longer this war goes on the more experience will be gained by the recruits; the guys that are currently experienced are from the original 2014+ battles. Even with 230k out of commission Ukraine’s army is more confident as ever especially with the currently stalled Russia’s progress (for whatever reason that is) and supply of capable weapons by the west, add to that successful recent attack on Crimea. They are also now training high skilled guys shipped somewhere to the EU and in 6 months + will have some techincal guys in the battlefield. As stated everywhere else time is not on Russia’s side, the longer this goes the more organized NATO support will be.
«the real question is not “When will AFU run out of manpower”, but, “When will almost the whole military be unseasoned, unskilled conscripts”»
The real question is: “How the ukrainian government will be able to supply the AFU and its civilians with food, fuel, electricity this winter, given that they have no money and even if they had they have much reduced transport abilities and the main AFU forces are far away from NATO borders”.
“Winter is coming”.
The whole “special military operation” was a spring-summer operation to setup the conditions for the fascist ukrainian government to collapse this winter.
What is probably going to happen that 10-20 million ukrainians will emigrate to the EU to escape the collapse of the ukrainian economy, and perhaps several NATO brigades will enter western Ukraine to provide “humanitarian assistance”, even if things will be much easier than in central Ukraine.
You’re panicking. Or maybe you want to instill a false sentiment of urgency. Forget it , the people in charge are cool headed and determined . Ukraine- the american project- will be destroyed.
I am neither a troll, nor do I want to instill anything. I’m just a guy who is (still) living about half his time in Moscow. And when I’m back in EU-Land I play Lyube’s “Kombat” every evening on my terrace and have a cigar and a glass of Arbat cognac. LOL. However, we have a bit of an echo chamber going on here. The reason the Russian forces withdrawal from the Northern vector (the line Chernihiv – Konotop – Sumy – Kharkov) was the accute awareness of the lack of sustainable fighting power. No magic 6D chess, as the MAGA crowd would call it. What we see now is the maximum Russia can manage without committing the majority of its forces, AND/OR calling up reserves which would cause the most severe consequences in Russia. It is true that Ukraine even with NATO help (and very likely NATO itself) is unable to conduct meaningful offensive operations, but this does not make the situation better, since Russia’s offensive capabilities are also rather limited. And that might be a general characteristics of modern warfare. Maybe major offensive ground combat operations against near peer advisaries are impossible these days. Maybe we have in our heads too many “Heeresgruppe Mitte” operations. Maybe the current Russian way is the only way possible these days. My active days are long gone and all the assumptions back then were just sandbox games and never out to the test. It could be that we see September/October 1914 repeated, when von Bülow had to pull back after the Battle of Marne and the Battle of Aisne (now you can tell where I am from – LOL), and things moved from mobility warfare to static warfare. The next months will tell.
We have similar backgrounds and I agree with your comment re: the echo chamber and the unsustainability of the northern vectors earlier on. Nearly 3 months ago I predicted that the war in Ukraine would mostly stall at close to the current battlelines and here we are 3 months later with little change. (I cannot find a link to the comment where I posted this). Things will be the same or very similar in 3 months into the future.
Many of the comments made on here are what people hope will come to pass rather than an opinion based in logical reasoning, or at the least are very heavily biased towards the former. As such, time and time again they have been completely overly-optimisitic. They may feel good writing and reading similar such comments, but the value in the content is minimal.
predictions are like opinions {everybody has em} but the comments here on Saker’s blog generally reflect on Saker’s reasonings of facts which he has access to which most readers don’t have, wanting the war to be over quick is just wanting justice to be swift’ , based on Saker’s analysis we better understand what the justice looks like.
many thanks to Saker for his wonderful work helping us see a little better threw the thick clouds of ignorance by MSM productions called ‘news’ {lies}
@petr
you can’t deny the fact that Ukraine has and continues to suffer horrendous casualties on a daily basis. Even elensky admitted that.
On the other hand, Russia’s causalities are all that Ukrainian propaganda have provided, and we know how reliable they’re (wink wink)
Btw, the Russian govt didn’t give an exact time frame for the operation. The 3-month period that you mention was a guess by commenters on this blog.
«you can’t deny the fact that Ukraine has and continues to suffer horrendous casualties on a daily basis. Even elensky admitted that.»
That is just undesirable collateral damage: every russian-culture (non-ruthenian) ukrainian soldier killed is one more family that hates the Russian Federation.
The real goals of the “special military operations” seem to have been, quite rationally:
* Secure Novorossya and Crimea from ukrainian fascist reprisals.
* Destroy fascist ukrainian logistics and wait for “General Winter” to do the rest.
https://gordonhahn.com/2022/07/29/regime-instability-in-kiev/
“Moreover, Ukraine’s GDP will contract by nearly 50 percent this year, and a quarter of Ukrainian businesses have closed down, with Russia seizing the country’s coal, agricultural lands, and seaports, comprising some 60 percent of Ukraine’s economy. Much is being written about the energy crisis in the Europe and America as summer turns to fall and temperatures begin to drop. Less attention has been given to the consequences of energy deficits in Ukraine itself. The war-torn country will certainly be cutoff from Russian gas, oil, and coal, and its own coal in Donbass is under Russian control. Its energy sector is on the brink of default as residential and business customers lack the funds to pay their bills.”
Correction: the coal in the Donbas does not belong to Ukraine, but to the people of the Donbas, and it is under Donbas, not russian, control.
@Nikolaus Hagenau
What’s your source for Russia’s ’20k casualties’
I’d like to know because you’re from Moscow (where many pro-western people reside) and that you’re definitely not a Russian yourself.
It does not seem plausible that the reason for the Russian forces withdrawal from the Northern vector was the acute awareness of the lack of sustainable fighting power, that the Russian army top was somehow unable to foresee it before sending the troops over the border.
Wars between ‘brethren peoples’ can become the worst: The American ‘civil’ war is a good example.
What a tragedy.
aye the civil war also had the effect of getting soldiers battle hardened and into killing machines and practiced mass battlefield destruction in which after the war ended , these killing machines were sent west and unleashed on removing the rest of the native tribes , the tribes had no idea of the hell that was coming west . thats real tragedy’
And the US wars in Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq. US militants returned home with bent heads. Wait at the bus stop and some complete stranger comes along and stands behind them! Enough to make a grown man dangerously nervous.
The American civil was was the South wanting to be free of the tyranny of the U.S., but instead those people were forced into a country they didn’t want. Since then the United States was no longer a voluntary union.
«Wars between ‘brethren peoples’ can become the worst: The American ‘civil’ war is a good example. What a tragedy.»
A tragedy that began with the war of aggression by the ruthenian fascists and the ukrainian government against the Donbas, on 9 May 2014, with the Mariupol Massacre:
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/05/10/ukra-m10.html
“With the open support of Washington and its European allies, the regime installed by Washington and Berlin in last February’s fascist-led putsch is now extending its reign of terror against all popular resistance in Ukraine. That is the significance of the events in the major eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol yesterday. After tanks, armored personnel carriers and heavily armed troops were unleashed on unarmed civilians in the city, the Kiev regime claimed to have killed some 20 people. The Obama administration immediately blamed the violent repression on “pro-Russian separatists.” This is the second time in a week that the Obama administration has defended the role of the Kiev government in the murder of anti-government demonstrators, having done so following the Odessa killings (see: “US defends role of Kiev regime and fascists in Odessa massacre”).
The violence bore all the hallmarks of a calculated provocation on the 69th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Red Army. […] These admirers of Hitler and his Ukrainian collaborators are now serving, with Washington’s full support, as the regime’s shock troops against popular opposition centered in the industrialized east of the country as well as in Russian-speaking centers such as Odessa in the south. The same forces have been given free rein to attack anyone in the west of the country who dares to oppose the fascistic government in Kiev. Outraged accounts from residents of Mariupol, verified by journalists on the ground, make it clear that many of those targeted by the Ukrainian National Guard and associated fascist elements on Friday had been participating in a Victory Day rally commemorating the anniversary.”
Ukraine will eventually be left as a Israeli terror State. Russia and novorussia will conduct reprisal operations. The organized crime will make europe look like the middle east, not only in ethnic composition but terrorism, slavery, drugs etc.
I think Russia had good reasons to not take out the leading Ukraïne elites, but can this be an option in the future when such reasons could be replaced with other reasons?
Of course it is an option. But considering the truly breathtaking incompetence of the Clown in Chief and all his subordinates, I think that Russia should let them live as long as they continue to act like total idiots and lose the war. Now if a compete leader emerges, then this would be a different case.
But “Ze” & Co. do more harm to the Ukraine with their sheer idiocy than Russia ever could.
So killing them would feel good, sure, but be counter productive.
The Russians are goal-oriented, or result-focused, if you prefer.
Let the West think that PR is war.
Russians know better.
cheers
I understand those reasons to let them destroy themselves. But now it’s more and more guerrilla, they try to cause a nuclear disaster, destroy an important bridge and even depots and such in Russian territory, not to forget keep shelling innocent civilians outside their controlled area behind the front. I can imagine that it’s becoming a greater risk to let them proceed with this, especially their shelling of the nuclear plant. When you take out the leaders, that is both political and militairy, I think the SMO will end even sooner due to the collapse of their army. That’s why I asked for possible reasons take another route. Thanks for your response btw.
you are quite welcome!
Russians built those plans. They understand the risks. WAY better than anyone in the West. Bar the few nuclear physicists who no one would listen to..
So you will not see them panic. Nor will you see them underestimate these risks.
… niečo malé vizuálne k (Ze) / … something small visually to (Ze):
“Journalists drew attention to Zelensky’s facial expressions at a press conference after a meeting with Erdogan”
https://t.me/sputnik/11162?fbclid=IwAR38JJOzMVmuhAPVX3XInkqTVnODnuInwTcNgcmAuzAgH-DvaWxXz8xHWzQ
Best,
Slavomír
“Let the West think that PR is war”
The PR is entirely directed at the home front, not to the russians. When a war, even a proxy war, is on, all the governments work on “home front morale”.
There are visible cracks of that in the EU already, for example the open letter to Scholz of the heads of several large tradespeople associations on 2022-08-17, where they told him that they are not willing to sacrifice their living standards for the brutally corrupt ukrainian fascist government. Strangely enough in “Washington Consensus” countries that open letter is not mentioned by the main media.
My impression is that because of “home front morale” most EU governments want to quietly stop complying with USA “sanctions” against the Russian Federation as winter progresses, the question is whether the USA will “sanction” them too.
I hope your right Andrei. If ZNP gets blown up and radiation released the west will blame Russia as ludicrous as this is since Russia has been in control of it since the beginning of the SMO. Every western media will lie and say its so. Then its not a proxy war anymore. The warmongers will say we tried to stay out but this crossing the red line can not be tolerated. If they want it they shall have it. Are they that desperate and that insane? I like your positive note we shall leave it at that.
Well they crossed a red line with the attack on Crimea.
Nato hasn’t needed good reasons to intervene ‘they just make up whetever reason they want , Iraq wmd {lied}, taliban hiding osama {Not} , syria used wmd on its people {untrue}, viet nam “they shot at us first,usa navy said”{lied} and more The point is Nato is not entering Ukraine because they Know thats succide {for the west} , my 2c if a nuke disaster of any kind happens in Ukraine or anywhere else then Hell would have come again upon the earth.
and then what?
the verbal total hatred of Russia is already here. it hardly can go any more strident.
and in terms of *actions* what will the West do?
Impose more self-defeating sanctions?
Try to fight the remaining 90% of the Russian armed forces?
the West has lost that war, whether it realizes it or not.
And no amount of PSYOPs will turn the tide.
«Impose more self-defeating sanctions?»
USA exporters are doing booming sales with ballooning profits.
https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/01203364-be32-49c4-a63c-bc88ff4f4e39>
“With much of the world shunning Russia, countries have turned to the United States for the supply of key commodities. In this short special report we detail how Russia-related supply issues are helping propel export growth and are contributing to the normalization of the U.S. trade balance. U.S. export growth has started to turn a corner, with real goods exports outpacing imports amid a sizable lift in exports of industrial supplies & materials specifically. […] the U.S. became the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter during the first half of the year and data suggests the U.S. is supplying more to Europe specifically.”
Too bad for the EU vassals, but their lot is to choose between complying with USA sanctions against the RF, or be sanctioned and regime-changed by the USA. Perhaps over winter the USA will let them off partially.
Beside preventive measures (police and secret services) the best thing is a well being of citizens. Citizens need security, work and prospect. They will have bad memories for war, so many of them would rather live in peace. Foreign groups often make mistake because they are ideologically blind. Such an example is Croatian Ustaše attack on Yugoslavia in june1972. Their goal was to start people uprising. But the people rather called the police than started war. So it was all over after 4 days. 15 of 19 terrorists were killed, 4 captured and 3 executed after trial, 1 was minor and was imprisoned.
They were under propaganda influence. Life is Yugoslavia is bad, people hardly wait regime change. But that time it was not so. So they were very disappointed over the behavior of Croats and other in Yugoslavia.
I think that the same will be in liberated Ukraine. If life would be good, there would be no ground for people uprising. Newer and newer groups can come, but receiving no help will be eliminated.
Europe’s powers gave Ukraine no new military pledges in July, data shows
https://www.politico.eu/article/data-show-europe-waning-military-support-ukraine/
The cash spigot is drying up, drought in the trough. Panic in the piggery.
Result – sheer desperation, ZNPP provocations. IAEA, UN inspectors are targets – naivete could be fatal!
Even when diversion is tried, the Ukraine economy is utterly and totally bankrupt – army salaries depend on Brussels (Germany). It is officially in default, begging for deferred payments. Be sure the bill arrived in Brussels, D.C. passes the buck!
Nothing can save the economy, the begging bowl is the future, under current imperial monetarism
Live by monetarism, die by monetarism.
Joining the EAEU is the single only possible way to save the Ukraine economy.
Deja-vu – was that not the reason for the Obama/Biden Maidan coup?
Despite all the pep-talk, EU money aid has been dropping since April! Who knows where US money is going – Sen. Rand Paul was on the (now defunct) Kiev CCD information terror list for demanding an audit!
Sure looks like Brussels expected a short win – and are now faced with an absolute financial disaster, and likely social upheaval. Talk about sheer incompetence! Sanction boomerang would make a Wallaby laugh out loud!
I think the biggest problems with this is ,1.The propaganda value the Ukie’s get inside Russia. Terrifying citizens there to worry about their safety. Hoping to make them doubt the governments abilities. And ,2. The terror value inside the liberated territories. Making people afraid to cooperate with Russia and Russia supporters among their neighbors. Making them think they should wait and see which side finally wins. And also making them fear not to cooperate with the Ukie terrorists for fear for their lives and families if they don’t cooperate, or at least where they won’t inform on them.
Russia must be seen both inside Russia,but even more importantly in the liberated territories to be dealing with that problem. They need especially in Crimea,to clamp down there. Replace security figures that have failed to control the situation with an extremely tough new set of officials. Start acting like you would in a real war. Because no matter how we call it,it’s a war. People called the Korean War a “police action” for a long time too. But we all know it was a war. I consider this an inner-Rus civil war. It’s been going on at least since 1991 in off and on spurts. With from 2014 being totally an “on” spurt. I agree that this terrorist war will last for several years. And it will be won by Russia in the end. But it’s going to take a lot of hard work before it’s won.
Yeah, got the same vision. Just think that Russia keeps Novorossiya and things get better. But, because of terrorist attacks nothing will function properly. You cannot farm near the borderline, even if is your land, you cannot exchange stuff with your neighbors, your not safe at all. And that land must be worked!? Things can be fluid, if the americans don’t come up with plan B. Which they are implementing now, since Russia has the upper hand in the region. Just a thought.
Well it looks like the Nazis have upped the ante today,this from South Front.
Russian air defense systems were activated in the city of Kerch in the east of the Crimea. The Crimean bridge links the city of Kersch with the Russian Krasnodar region. The incident was confirmed Oleg Kryuchkov, adviser to the head of Crimea Sergey Aksenov, in an urgent statement.
The Crimean official claimed that there is no danger either to the city or the bridge. He added that these are preliminary reports. Any details on the incident are yet to be revealed.
The locals reported several explosions heard at 20:41, 20:56 and 20:58 local time.
Presumably, the air defense systems could have target Ukrainian drones over the bridge.
And also, when it comes to terrorizing the inhabitants in Donbass: From August 16, there is a new law in the Ukraine: If a person accepts food supplies from a Russian organisation, civilian or military, he/she risks 15 years in prison.
That shows how desperate the Ukranian regime is now!
Sabotage attacks with small drones that were carrying explosive charges. Nasty but not without any countermeasures that can readily be taken. Be alert, have electronic countermeasures and air defence ready, don’t put any ammo out in the open for loading it onto aircraft or even for storing it. Likewise, keep aircraft inside of hangars and roll them out only at the last moment before take off. The Russians need to build aircraft hangars and ammo bunkers fast.
As for the the nuclear power plant, it would make sense for the West to try and pollute Ukraine before it’s taken over by Russia.
Polluting a swath of the planet with lethal radioactivity “makes sense” only to psychopaths.
Nothing the US does makes sense.
Is it not strange that the ZNPP pranks intensify just as Germany mulls a nuclear extension?
How dare Germany go for modern industrial energy? While paying for US super LNG molecules of freedom?
Doe anyone in Berlin realize they are under concerted attack on numerous fronts?
I suspect many do – and cannot say openly.
This is a horrible problem, no matter what party claims ascendancy.
Following action will surprise many, forget any kind of crystal-ball gnostic mystical incantations!
So, Andrei, we are slowly drifting to the real mess that Blinkey & Co. were prophesying long time ago. No peace for Russia in case of victory. Just a sort of stand-off, more or less reliable. In the meantime, “the real world” continues the game. I am getting the picture right?
I think you got the picture right. If the US successfully blows up the NPP and contaminates all of Russia and a big chunk of Europe, I am quite certain that there will be streamers, party hats and all night celebrations in the halls of the government legislative buildings and in the Pentagon and throughout Washington, DC. And, they will certainly have cause to celebrate as Russia will do nothing in retaliation. Nothing.
If the US successfully blows up the NPP and contaminates all of Russia
Now you are really hallucinating! How would a NPP blowing up in the former Ukraine affect Kamchatka or even Moscow?
Get real or go away.
I confess, this time you are right. Thanks for replying to two of my posts. You honor me!
yes, I am also banning you for your snarky attitude and ignorant comments.
bye bye!
The NPPs in question are not of the “open” vessel design nor are they graphite-moderated. You literally cannot force a VVER reactor to /conventionally/ “blow up” like happened in Chernobyl.
So no, nothing of the scale seen in Chernobyl is possible. Worst case is a Fukushima-scale disaster.
no the ‘war is only 6 months old Saker is right nuthing will deter the SMO because nuthing can, apart from slipping into a nuke war killing the planet, Russia holds 2 huge cards ‘hypersonic dominance keeps US/Nato/cowering, and EU dependance on Russian energy/Russia can just turn it off and grab popcorn…..can’t he { Putin} ?? {isn’t that What He is already Doing}
EU wont last the winter!! {and they already know it , is why the money/support is drying up fast}
You got that right. I will go one step ahead and NOT open the gas/oil pipelines towards Europe for at least 1 year. So will see how Western governments handle the shock and what price they will pay for their stupidity.
Russia can drive a very hard bargain, but perhaps won’t gouge Europe financially. A fair and profitable price for oil and gas on long-term contracts. The “hard” part will be that Europe must pivot to Asia and excise the US. Europe doesn’t have to hate the US: just leave it on the other side of the ocean and don’t let it mess up yet another country. See what it done to Ukraine and Germany!
Nice dream: the germans would let go the double standard between Russia and the us, …..I am with you regarding this dream….but I`ve been waiting for this dream to come true for at least 15 years….here in germany.
so …do not expect so much……. anytime soon
Agree a real danger and one the British and US would be nurturing and encouraging as much as possible!
Russia should start handing out pamphlets on the consequences of a nuclear melt-down to the local population and to ask them to report anyone who has just moved into the area.
I mean who would go live next to a nuclear power plant that is been shelled during a war?
Russia has to also monitor the Odesa Port much closer…particularly the underwater, special operations soldiers train specifically using such underwater routes as a highway.
Anyhow back to the pamphlets…Russia should spread as much fear in the Western half of Ukraine over nuclear Armageddon as possible and of what the Ukrainian military is doing to either get information or to stampede the population.
No, they are talking about temporarily deactivating the ZNP.
The reality is that a civilian nuclear reactor accident/sabotage would be even close to any “nuclear Armageddon”
Look at Chernobyl and Fukuyama, and compare that with what a nuclear weapon detonation would do.
There is a big difference of timeline between a reactor problem and a nuclear weapon.
The nuclear weapon has a large instant impact but the radiation problem starts to decline immediately even though it lingers for many years.
A reactor accident has a modest initial impact, but the radiation problem can continue indefinitely .. Chernobyl is a small example, but Fukashima is a a big example .. 10 years later and nothing is ‘contained’. As far we can tell, Fukashima will be an active problem for at least a few hundred years .. and the cores that melted down are still missing but spewing radiation.
So reactor incidents can become worse than a nuclear weapon – it depends on how catastrophic the problem is.
How would you compare not abstract radiation figure but ACTUAL human casualties?
How many people died or were permanently handicapped by Chernobyl and Fukushima and how many were fro the (relatively low yield) strikes in Nagasaki and Hiroshima?
Care to compare?
Then imagine modern nuclear weapons and what they could do!
Two remarks: 1- a NPP cannot be deactivated and reactivated. No magic switch.
2- The guest is right, but of course states (USSR and Jspan in those cases) will not provide accurate data on deaths caused by major NPP disasters. Epidemiological perspective shows that a NPP meltdown will kill and disable more civilians (and military volunteers sent as first responders) than a single (and yes terrifying) nuclear weapon detonation. Its impact on the biological habitat (farm lands, fishing and hunting grounds) for homo sapiens will also be more devastating.
But no state (capitalist or communist) can accept that as civil nuclear energy is the backbone of industrial production:
1- guaranteeing prosperity thus social peace for the elites
2- Ensuring military production to keep competing armed “tribes” and states away from ones ressources and trade networks.
Anyway it also highlights the murderous insanity of the west elites, as well as their massive use of DU ammunitions on west asia, specially Iraq and Gaza.
Russia will remain focused and THE adult in the room, but the satanic insanity of EU (and US) elites is exemplified by their PR backup of Kiev desparate provocations at ZPP.
reactors can be stopped, and are so even for maintenance reasons.
It’s not a magic switch, it is a technical procedure.
Exactly – see how many are offline in France for real maintenance and corrosion problems.
Engineering….
Re-starting a German de-commissioned NPP is not a snap of the fingers, as politico’s must learn.
Engineers must be fit to be tied at the sheer ineptitude…
Thanks for the follow-up. I did not develop not to derail into off-topic “atom’s splitting” (pun intended). Yes the nuclear reactor can be “shutdown” but what the public will not realize is that part of the nuclear reaction is NOT stopped, hear is still produced, to a lesser extent but cooling systems need to work for years after a “shutdown” to avoid a critical event. Here a terrorist group can strike at systems involved in cooling.
Not even going into “cold” radioactive waste that can be impacted by fire, explosives etc.
Thus releasing hot particles that will be ingested, inhaled, deposited on vegetation, bioaccumulate etc.
Targeting civilian nuclear sites is utter criminality and truly demented.
Btw thanks again, Andrei, for the quality of your blog and the enormous work you put into moderating. I would have closed the co.ment srction long ago. ))) Take care, keep calm and buy rubbles.
I think the point has been missed, be it a nuclear bomb or a meltdown releasing a large amount of nuclear material into the atmosphere is not a good idea, so those people firing at the facility are either idiots or psychopaths.
If that nuclear facility in Ukraine -now Russia- leaks then you can kiss goodbye to the grain harvest anytime in the future, see what that does for world hunger and war!
It is clear that they planned a psychological operation to go in tandem with the work by the saboteurs.
Western media is full of suggestions that these were missile strikes, stealth bombers, etc. And that this is the Ukraine offensive we were told was coming.
It is all pretty laughable. And they are working hard against the Zaporozhia nuclear plant again too. Seems pretty desperate.
The crime is of course pure MI6 Foreign office made, they always use the same scripts from MH17, to Skipal, Ryanair flight in Minsk, Butcha and many worse in Syria.It is not the signature of CIA eventhough they act in support, but decision center is in London. Check bojo attitude all the way.They changed their mind after the Kiev ‘feint’, the day after Bojo was in Kiev to force ZE to not negociate anymore or face JFKisation, they since really believe they can ‘win’, it was not the case before, even sending weapons it was only about ‘fake defensive’ but not himars and co + dozens of billions.
«they since really believe they can ‘win’»
I doubt it very much: the rational plan, which they seem to be following, is to lose very slowly, to create maximum damage to the RF, and then fund, train and arm large numbers of fanatical ruthenians and some fanatical ukrainians to run an insurgency for many years; but with the goal to engineer regime-change in Moscow. For the USA “win” means “yeltsinising” again the Russian Federation, not reconquering Ukraine.
https://dgibbs.faculty.arizona.edu/brzezinski_interview>
«Q : When the Soviets justified their intervention by asserting that they intended to fight against secret US involvement in Afghanistan, nobody believed them. However, there was an element of truth in this. You don’t regret any of this today?
B: Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it? The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter, essentially: “We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam war.” Indeed, for almost 10 years, Moscow had to carry on a war that was unsustainable for the regime , a conflict that bought about the demoralization and finally the breakup of the Soviet empire.
Q: And neither do you regret having supported Islamic fundamentalism, which has given arms and advice to future terrorists?
B : What is more important in world history? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some agitated Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?»
They just tried to strike the Kerch bridge.
Result? Two destroyed UAV (possibly one missile, but I doubt it)
Someone pointed out here recently that the Kerch Bridge was built (in record time) before the SMO, which has now secured a land corridor, which makes the (impressive) Bridge a backup, infrastructurally speaking.
«which makes the (impressive) Bridge a backup, infrastructurally speaking»
Indeed, the land corridor and in particular the water supplies from Kherson are far more important than that bridge.
But it is a symbol, and symbols matter for “home front morale”, and the real goal of the proxy war of aggression by Ukraine against the Donbas and Crimea has always been regime change in Moscow.
If I understand things correctly, a destroyed NPP with six simultaneous meltdowns on the banks of a river that apparently drains into the Black Sea near Crimea would totally contaminate the entire sea and make Crimea and the surrounding areas uninhabitable with radioactive waste water for a long, long, LONG time. If possible, the strait connecting the Black Sea with the Mediterranean Sea would be permanently closed by Turkey. That means, the Black Sea would become the 2nd Dead Sea. I suspect that would effectively stop the local war, and might well provoke a global one.
six simultaneous meltdowns
Oh Jeez, more hallucinations from you.
You are banned.
Go away and don’t come back
Some experts believe that Ukrainian goal is not destroying the plant but damaging it and than stopping it.
1. Workers shortage.
Shelling will cause that workers will move their families to safe towns. Now they are living together with families. Some will leave with their families. Russian nuclear experts will not be happy to come to the place where they can get killed.
2. Production stoppage.
Constant repairing of auxiliary structures means constant costs and danger. Some things can’t be repaired in short time, other needs experts from far away. They can even disable some vital part (not reactor but other parts).The operator will have to decide whether to operate or temporarily shut down.
3. Local contamination.
People can freely move in the outside area of power plant without radioactive protection. For example workers can paint a wall, repair the fence, mow grass without protection gear. If there is local contamination from radioactive waste which is stored there, than the plant needs to shut down at once. Workers will have great problems how to come to their working places and all not urgent work will be stopped. The same will be with guarding the area. And later area decontamination will be very expensive. They will have problems with preventing water and air pollution. Also some locals will need to be evacuated.
4. Propaganda.
Some really believe in evil Russians capable of anything bad.
Experts are not predicting catastrophe but great costs and problems for Russians with this powerplant.
Yes, that is a realistic assessment of the goals of any such attack.
Also, the ZNP was used to feed electricity to much of the Ukraine.
The Russians wanted to connect it to the Russian power grid.
If it is forced to stop, then from the Ukronazi point of view it is simple “if we can’t have it, nobody else can, we rather destroy it”.
Thank you
«Some experts believe that Ukrainian goal is not destroying the plant but damaging it and than stopping it.»
“Winter is coming” and the Ukraine is very short of electricity. I have read that ZNPP is currently still connected to the ukrainian grid and the ukrainian government are selling its electricity to NATO countries to pay for weapons supplies.
https://www.txtreport.com/news/2022-07-01-ukraine-has-started-a-significant-export-of-electricity-to-the-eu.Skv20W25q.html
“Ukraine has started a significant export of electricity to the EU”
Of course the RF has sent technicians to reroute the electricity to the Donbas and Crimea.
The ukrainian goals seem to be:
* An international (NATO) “peacekeeper” force to occupy the ZNPP and return it to control of the Ukrainian government, so it can continue exporting electricity to NATO weapons suppliers.
* If that cannot happen, to disable the plant as soon as the supply lines are rerouted to Donbas and Crimea.
* Possibly, bomb the spent fuel pools when the winds blow east, to contaminate Donbas, Crimea and the south-western parts of the Russian Federation.
Since the latter is both uncertain and dangerous, I guess most EU governments (but not the USA) will tell them to not do it.
Ukrainians have been brainwashed by usa and nato through books, media and white supremacist groups. The long term solution is to counter those ideas in the minds of people who live in the RF controlled areas. As the article correctly mentions that a few determined people can always slip the detection, this seems to be an idea that can work along with surveillance.
Given the shared history, it is an optimistic goal the people will find a common ground to live peacefully. I hope and believe that the Novorussia and RF have a bright future ahead and that will help heal the wounds.
The outcome of the SMO would give shock to a lot of people and force them into revising their views.
I am pretty sure Russian intelligence community will figure out most efficient way to discourage those acts. Counter intelligence, made Kiev understand the repercussions to an extend they will fear for their lives, set some examples and make them public to the maximum extend. What the Nazis fear most?! SIBERIA! And there is plenty of work to be done there. For the rest of their lives. If soldiers on the front lines are getting used with the idea of losing their lives the Elites in command FEAR for their life and that is leverage. Make them pay were hurts the most.In time if they have a little sanity left, it will stop those acts. Hopefully sooner than later will become un deniable the outcome of the SMO and everybody will adjust to a new reality.
You are right in general. However, it is absolutely necessary to respond not only through intelligence and counterintelligence actions, but through more impactful attacks on places controlled by the Kiev regime to show that no diversionary action will go unanswered and that it will cost the regime more and more dearly.
Putin waited for ‘seven long years ‘ to make his checkmate move on the united West. meantime, many pro-Russian writers, renowned intellectuals, thinkers and analysts impatiently blamed Russia for timidity to retaliate against recurrent Ukronazi (a.k.a. NATO) provocations. Until Putin’s possibly one of the most, if not the most significant tectonic decisions in history on the launching of the special military operation not to win a war, but to change the global configuration forever. Putin, among other virtues, is the greatest strategist of our time. He knows when and how to respond to a challenge. Like Russia in history, he subordinates tactical events to the strategic objective. Now the whole world, with the possible exception of the brainless vassals of the supranational elite criminals, knows what the inevitable outcome of the SMO will be. glory to Russia.
Yes, Putin (and Russians in general) do not act in haste, but very methodically and carefully.
1000 years of existential warfare taught them this.
Thanks for this. Been thinking about exactly this since the beginning of the action and is probably why the Russia won’t hold any more of the Ukraine than that which supports them . In other words stay out of the west with the exception of denazification and controlling/destroying any western military buildup. I don’t expect Russia to follow the stupidity of the US and its terrorist actions around the world. Trying to hold territory that wants you dead is a fools errand. We(US) have a long history for this kind of stupidity.
For some reason the word “resentful” stuck with me. Not the same context but….”deplorables” came into my head after that. Just food for thought. Thanks again.
Russia will not engage in terrorist acts. Both for moral/ethical and very pragmatic reasons.
They waited EIGHT years (and took 14’000 dead) before launching the SMO.
And some Takfiri terrorist had to “wait” 20 years before every single one of them was caught or killed.
The same will happen to most Ukronazis.
Slowly but surely.
That was a good point about what motivates defectors i.e. a resentment against superiors for being unfairly treated, often due to being passed over for promotion. Benedict Arnold was said to have acted from this motive and Nixon was betrayed by FBI Associate Director Mark Felt who resented not being promoted to the top job.
Surely this is inevitable and would happen in many other conflicts ? I accept that the West has an advantage in that it possesses a highly funded and “well oiled” secret service etc. that uses any nefarious tactic imaginable to get what it wants but Russia will be fully aware of this,expect it and plan as possibly as much it can for such terroristic tactics. I also expect the Russian response will be considered and “tweaked” as time passes to limit the threat and, as Andrei writes, they will “accept the reality of war for what it is”.
More poignant is that the fact that they are using these tactics and we are discussing them is that they are therefore a reaction against what is a highly successful military operation and it further signals Ukrainian desperation.
Two can play the sabotage game. I believe Russia has many assets spread around the west. Maybe Russians should simply state that any Ukrainian sabotage on Russian soil will be followed by several sabotages in the West. Can the West sustain the draught, the civil dissent, energy crisis plus a retaliatory sabotages by Russian sleepers?
Require native fluency in Russian as a prerequisite for Russian citizenship for Ukranians.
since most Ukrainians are not only fluent in Russian, but have Russian as their mother tongue this would solve exactly nothing.
The anglo-saxons are interfering right at Russia’s borders and have their people on the ground (in their employ, even if not regular army soldiers) actually attacking Russian-speaking regions in Ukraine.
Their proxies are attacking russia proper with their help.
This is not the same as Vietnam.
It is actually far worse than the case of Cuba where Russia was ready to help them defend themselves, not actually attack the USA.
Why are the Russians so restrained – its bad for them, this is how the Anglo-Saxons have reached their borders in the first place!
Now they are actually attacking the Russians and the Russians are acting like its only a small part of Ukraine that’s bothering them!
This is the price of a defensive posture, you’re always defending yourself on your own territory, or your allies’ territory, rather than that of the other side!
High time Russia acted decisively, that’s the obvious thing to do.
Russia’s just being patient and going to roll back everything to 1990, that’s for sure. Give it a few years at most. After that: never again a defensive posture in international politics! Never again communist control – only the original spirit of the Russian people which Putin has resurrected.
WHY DID US BLOCK RUSSIAN REQUEST FOR INSPECTION OF ENERGODAR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN YOUR OPINION?
– Simple: the US AGM-114GLH-L, -Hellfire missiles-, were used to strike the Energodar nuclear power plant.
This is why the USA opposed the inspection of the Energodar plant by IAEA experts and fabricated a letter supported by 42 satellite states asking Russia to withdraw from there.
So there is now evidence of American complicity in the attack on the nuclear reactors of the plant by discovering fragments of rockets manufactured by the United States.
Officially, the supply of AGM-114 Hellfire anti-tank missiles was never declared, however, the discovered fragments of these rockets indicate that they were actively used to shell the territory of Energodar and, probably, the territory of Zaporozhy La nuclear plant.
– The rockets have a maximum action range of 8 km, have a cumulative penetration charge and are laser guided, which is very precise.
– They can be launched from fighter helicopters or MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aircraft.
– The GLH-L variant has been specially modified to be launched from the ground from a high mobility vehicle.
Why these missiles? because launched so close, they are difficult to intercept, but not impossible, -the Russian systems are capable of it-, there are therefore in addition, radar jamming missiles:
– “During a detailed study of the electronic circuit boards of the rocket found at the Energodar impact site, it turned out to be a first generation AGM-114 Hellfire rocket, which was made 30 years ago. It has nothing to do with a Brimstone, although it has similar characteristics on the outside”, reports the “Military” Informant channel on Telegram.
It was only after the Russians discovered fragments of an AGM-88 Harm anti-radar missile, which was not known to have been sent to Ukraine, that the United States admitted the to have delivered, to neutralize the radar systems of the S-400 complexes.
Russia will have to quickly implement a countermeasure to anti-radar missiles.
So: WHO wants to IRRADATE the POPULATION of ALL EASTERN EUROPE by CAUSING a NUCLEAR ACCIDENT at the ENERGODAR power plant??
I have an interesting schema on this subject but we can not load jpeg here..maybe a suggestion for a future update Saker? Tks coop.
First, using CAPS is against the rules
Second, what is your source for all this?
He’s reporting the telegram channel post from “Military Informant”, verbatim. Within the post, there are images showing circuit board fragments.
Thats interesting but the story put out here in the West is that the Russians won’t allow international officials into the plant to inspect it,i don’t know the truth of that.one would think its a good idea to let them in and see the evidence of those missiles.
So, the six bullet points the Saker lays out in the beginning of this piece, and the two points in the paragraph beneath the heading line with the bold red font (fourth or fifth para from the bottom) should be no surprise/present no special/new information to anyone who has been following these events since the beginning (be that 2022 or 1942, or even earlier).
The conflict (call it an SMO, call it a war, call it what you will) moves from the conventional side of the spectrum to classic guerrilla/partisan/”diversiia”.
Intelligence vs counter-intelligence, diversionary vs counter-diversionary, spy vs spy, Wagner vs Mozart, and what have you. This is all…. academic.
US/UK/NATO have lots and lots of money. Russia has the geographical advantage (re: logistics). As it often does, IMO it will come down to a war of wills, and stamina (which is sustained by true belief).
A few books of potential interest to fellow travelers:
– Daniele Ganser: NATO’s Secret Armies: Operation GLADIO and Terrorism in Western Europe (should warn you that the hardcover will set you back ~$190)
– Jeffrey M. Bale: The Darkest Side of Politics, Volumes I and II
– R.J. Hillhouse: Outsourced, Diplomatic Constraints, Rift Zone
– Russ Baker: Family of Secrets
– Sibel Edmonds: The Lone Gladio
– Peter Dale Scott: all his books and poems!
– Gareth Porter: Perils of Dominance: Imbalance of Power and the Road to War in Vietnam
– Douglas Valentine: Hotel Tacloban, TDY, The Phoenix Program, The Strength of the Wolf, the Strength of the Pack
– Don Winslow: The Power of the Dog, The Cartel, The Border
Saker makes a good argument as to why Russia should not now destroy Ukraine decision making centers but I still don’t understand why Russia has not completely destroyed Ukraine military command centers.
Probably got a guy inside keeping them up to date about what’s going on :)
They have, plenty of them.
Where did you get the idea that the Russians are not hitting military HQs everyday.
No, they did not to that in downtown Kiev (yet).
But your assumption is wrong.
I think to solve the Ukrainian problems is very complex. The whole concept of Ukraine is problematic.
Even after the departure of some majority Russian ethnic areas, Ukraine can not function as a homogenous ethcnic state. It is to diverse. I think the optimal outcome would be to give Ukraine, or those who identify as Ukrainians, a truly sovereign state (under russian protection).
A year zero. Where through a open national dialogue a renewed identity was formed. Maybe some kind of thruth commision along the lines of the end of the aparthaid in South-Africa. Purpose would be cleansing of corruption, revising the forgery of history and purging the educational system. Giving people to be able to get clean from potential ongoing/future blackmail. Purging of Nazi / Bandera / anti-Russia hate elements. Dealing and apologizing for the sins of the past, be it poles, gypsies, russians, jews etc.
I don’t know how to bring it about. To me the Ukies seems a bit like helpless basket cases with an inferiority complex. They got raped by the West and the Oligarcs from the get go. Since the end of the Soviet, it seems they have been in a never ending downward spiral. Somehow the solution needs to come from within. Maybe a purging of the most negative elements of the ‘elite’, as well as oligarcs could be a start of something.
Normally a sovereign nation would have sued for peace by now, new forces would negotiate terms of capitulation … but it’s not a sovereign. Apparantly just cannon fodder thrown at someone elses enemy.
RE: “First, it is simply undeniable that the Ukronazi SBU/GUR have proven that they can, and have, conducted very effective diversionary attacks, including the murder of plenty of LDNR leaders. Sometimes the Ukronazis used special SBU/GUR units, other times they have successfully recruited locals (be it in the LDNR or Crimea) to conduct acts of sabotage and terrorism.”
Unfortunately, regardless of the outcome of the SMO in Ukraine, unless the Russians hunt down the saboteurs (regardless of where they reside), then this will probably go on ad-infinitum.
There shouldn’t be any doubt that sabotaging and terrorizing Russia is part and parcel of Russophobia for centuries. West made it the center piece of their policy toward Russia: to inflict harm on Russians and humiliate them.
Must add that they know, without admitting it, that Russia cannot be defeated militarily.
Ukraine is trying to goad Russia, prompting an escalation that will draw in the West’s “boots on the ground”.
Even if Russia does not take the bait, a serious nuclear incident will IMHO lead directly to a nuclear confrontation at least at the theater level.
Here is the West’s thinking: “It’s already contaminated so we do no harm by adding more.” In this mindset it does not matter who is responsible for the initial contamination.
The world does not realize its precarious position.
Interesting finding by Readovka News re: the reasons for Ukraine to be shelling the Zaporozhia NPP.
The article presents documents (use Yandex for image translations), reporting the disastrous state of the ZNPP, most of the money for maintenance of the plan was embezzled.
Ukraine has multiple goals in shelling the plant, one of them is to hide the state of the same now that is in Russian hands.
https://readovka.news/news/108520
Zaporizhia NPP: what is Ukraine really trying to achieve by firing at a nuclear facility?
Readovka found out the answer to this question after conducting a large investigation
Since the end of July, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have regularly shelled the largest nuclear power plant. Internet users are already tired of asking the almost rhetorical question-why?
The fact that the shelling was the work of the Ukrainians began to be recognized in foreign media, in particular, the German “Junge Welt” wrote about it. However, Kiev stubbornly continues to hit the NPP, not feeling guilty. There is a reason for this, and Readovka found it out.
Attempts to cause an accident at the plant are based on the desire to hide the real state of affairs at the nuclear power plant and not give an opportunity to check and analyze anything. So that no one, except for the Russian Federation, which, of course, no one in the civilized world will believe, does not know in what state the station passed to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
The NPP equipment is in a worn-out, deplorable state. It was not repaired for years, the allocated funds were totally plundered, the famous Kiev oligarchy profited from the operation.Rinat Akhmetov. As evidence – an original document: a letter from employees of the nuclear power plant to the President of UkraineVladimir Zelensky, where they reported on the condition of the equipment and asked to take measures to repair it.
The risk of Chernobyl 2.0, or even a more serious nuclear catastrophe, remains if the shelling continues, and the dilapidated power units are operated in the same conditions. The latter will now be under the control of experienced Russian power engineers, but who is to blame for the critical equipment being in such a state?
Readovka will soon present the arguments supporting these theses and answers to questions of public concern in a large exclusive investigation about Zaporizhia NPP.
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Lone Wolf
Interessting. Sounds like credible theses.
Remember that this plant was quickly captured by Russia early on in the SMO. There where fighting around the plant at that time, use of RPGs by the Ukies. Only damage was that one of the administrative building/offices burned down, but there was no danger to the operation of the plant/control rooms.
Removal of documentation and evidence ?
Multiple objectives there might be, but I think the main one is to prevent the electricity generated by the power plant from being re-routed – connected to a Russia-controlled grid.
If memory serves, this NPP accounts for ~20% of Ukraine’s electricity supply/needs? [please correct if wrong]
If one can control the flow/routing – it can be used to supply power to only those areas the RF is willing to have it flow.
The other side might say, well, if we can’t have it, neither can you, and oh, yes, there could be a radiological disaster, but it won’t affect me, as I live in the US/UK/on my yacht on the high seas for most of the year.
The RF side knows that this is a message being sent. They no doubt have plans of their own, and messages of their own. This is a big boys game now.
It’s a form of total war/war without limits – except its played out in different way, because you can’t do massive fire-bombings of cities anymore (other than in the ME).
Am reading the book “Baseless” by Nicholson Baker. As I read it, more I more I’m coming to believe that the kinds of characters who thought (quite openly, in official government correspondence) the way they did about BW and CW have not gone away, they’ve just gone underground: avian “vectors” that can fly thousands of miles; exotic plans and devices for delivery of pathogens that will cause widespread crop devastation and famine. And I’m only on Chapter 2. This was all in the 1940s and 1950s, mind you.
Russia should just safely decommission the ZNPP to avert a meltdown. The frozen Ukrainians will be motivated to help find and neutralize the saboteurs
Putin waited for ‘seven long years ‘ to make his checkmate move on the united west. meantime, many pro-Russian writers, renowned intellectuals, thinkers and analysts impatiently blamed Russia for timidity to retaliate against recurrent ukronazi (a.k.a. nato) provocations. until Putin’s possibly one of the most, if not the most significant tectonic decisions in history on the launching of the special military operation not to win a war, but to change the global configuration forever. Putin, among other virtues, is the greatest strategist of our time. he knows when and how to respond to a challenge. Like Russia in history, he subordinates tactical events to the strategic objective. Now the whole world, with the possible exception of the brainless vassals of the supranational elite criminals, knows what the inevitable outcome of the special military operation will be. glory to Russia.
well, one thing is sure, fortunetly russia has best qualified president to approve a plan to combat/attack this sabotaje disease … he will clean a lot of things as log he is president, for russia’s good he better stays in power. he will clean part of the corrupted military .
“The current aggravation in Ukraine could turn into a major scandal in the U.S. over the role of the Democratic Party in supplying weapons to Ukraine and Trump is preparing to use all trump cards.”
“and an opportunity for Ukraine to withstand a confrontation with Moscow, and to mislead Putin’s Ukrainian clientele and win 5-10 years to strengthen Kiev’s military capabilities.” — Image of the future
“During the search of Trump’s residence, the FBI was looking for handwritten notes taken by Trump during the ex-President’s summits with the head of North Korea and the Russian President.” — Image of the future
“The Biden Administration is primarily interested in what Putin said to Trump about the situation in Ukraine (the meeting was held in Helsinki in 2018, after which Democrats have been systematically crushing any Finnish crawl on neutral status).” — Image of the future
“Trump then called the two-hour talks with Putin ‘one of the best meetings I’ve ever had.’ The White House believes that Trump may learn something about secret arms shipments to Ukraine orchestrated by the Biden family.” — Image of the future
“The searches at Trump’s home came just after Biden left on vacation with an unknown end due to a recurrence of pneumonia.” — Image of the future
“The trigger for the searches, planned for late Sept., could have been the revelations that Moscow was reviewing new State Dept. and FBI docs discussing the start of covert arms and military tech deliveries to Kiev immediately after the signing of Minsk-1.” — Image of the future
“Any such leaks could be linked to the activities of then President Poroshenko and his inner circle. An additional verifier of the data collected in Trump’s house is Bolton, who oversaw the dispatch of US and British instructors to Kiev, Lviv, and Ochakov.” — Image of the future
“A foundation associated with the Bolton family sponsored the development of a dirty atomic bomb at a closed research institute in Kharkov and was going to test it in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in March 2022. But before March always comes February.” — Image of the future
Politico reports, citing sources in the Biden administration, that the White House has allowed Kyiv to use weapons received from the States for strikes in Crimea. Red Lines no doubt, the respknse to this has been spelled out. i guess now the wait
After decades at war the us of Arrogance is hurt.
Folks live in tents and cars.
Jobs can’t support living needs and food.
There is no love anywhere…
Us of a
I want to opportunistically use this tragedy to advocate for the development of the Liquid Flouride Thorium Reactor LFTR , which has none of the dangerous drawbacks of light and heavy water reactors, because the reaction is self stabilizing – if it overheats the the reaction shuts down on its own. ..Also they don’t make use of super heated steam or need the massive cooling systems , so those dangers are eliminated. Remember that Chernobyl was a steam explosion, not a nuclear explosion..These reactors would need a supply of U233 to enrich the Thorium they would use for reaction fuel . U233 is a by product of fission, of which Russia has a patrimony of large stockpiles ..Russia could lead the world into a new age of clean energy abundance and if she started next year the first reactors would be online in about 20 years ..BTW , as a fuel for nuclear weaopns Thorium is useless https://flibe-energy.com
«I want to opportunistically use this tragedy to advocate for the development of the Liquid Flouride Thorium Reactor LFTR , which has none of the dangerous drawbacks of light and heavy water reactors, because the reaction is self stabilizing»
It looks good to me, but they are of no interest to the military, and only the military have the funding to develop new nuclear technologies. The use of PWR etc. reactors has been because they are derived from military naval technology. To the point that Rolls-Royce in the UK has proposed to build dozens/hundreds of submarine nuclear reactors to put in containers to supply UK cities, as all the development costs have already been paid for by the Navy.
I believe you are right: the incidents you speak of are, in all likelihood, sabotages carried out by the Ukrainian secret services.
Just as I think you are also right that these facts have substantially limited on the Russian military potential.
however, there remains a question that you do not face: timing.
Why the attacks in Crimea right now? Why, for example, not in February when the conflict started?
In my opinion, due to the negative course of the war, the Ukrainian government absolutely needs to demonstrate in any way (especially to its external sponsors) that it is still worth trusting.
Since he is unable in any way to obtain substantial successes (see what happened to the much-heralded offensive in the south), he resorts to terrorist-type activities, even if in this way he risks burning important assets that he has placed on enemy soil.
«however, there remains a question that you do not face: timing.
Why the attacks in Crimea right now?»
Because the USA goal was always regime change in Moscow, and they always planned a slow military in Ukraine, and then a long phase of insurgency, both to undermine the RF government, and currently as the AFU are likely to collapse during winter because of lack of supplies, the insurgency phase is being started. There will be in the USA plans for endless waves of CIA/DOD funded, trained and armed ruthenian “freedom fighters” doing “partisan”/”banditen” operations inside RF occupied areas and inside the RF itself.
At the risk of sounding dumb (in which case I apologize), I would like to ask some questions:
(1) How do we know these sabotage attacks are not drone attacks?
(2) Aren’t the LDNR pretty good at sabotage attacks also? I recall a number of ammo dump explosions in the 2015 – 2021 period in Ukraininan-controlled territory.
(3) Why do militaries even have ammo dumps? Why not spread it around along the supply chain? Probably there are some very obvious reasons I am missing.
(4) Haven’t the decision-making centers already been hit? When Ukraine’s top oligarch was taken out in his bedroom a few weeks ago I thought “Ah, a decision-making center was hit, while Keeping Zelensky alive for surrender, seems logical”. In fact, when the POW camp was (subsequently?) hit with a Ukraininan missile, I thought “Ah, somebody maybe thinks the Nazi prisoners have been betraying/fingering their real benefactors and so these prisoners perhaps really needed to be taken out for that reason”.
I apologize in advance if all the above is of very little value.
Best regards, Shyaku.
Huge problem indeed! Could be different profiles of people involved. In Crimea besides local Ukie nazí sympathisers, corrupted, etc, there are the ethinc Tartars wanting to belong to Turkey?
At the risk of annoying my friend who has taught me so much and whose opinion I almost always agree with, a gracious person and awesome musician, at this point were I Putin and his general staff I would put the screws to kiev, the comic punk, his inner circle, correlating decision making centers, the baltic statelets, poland and any nato assets in or near orcraine, and issue a public threat against any further support by nato and its overlords in london and d.c. (all proper nouns except Putin intentionally not capped out of disrespect).
Hmmm, war has become so sophisticated; everything now seems so complex, or rather, over-complex . I rather hanker after the days when Marshal Zhukov and the Red Army, simply rolled over the Werhmacht in the long battle from Stalingrad to Berlin. But then I am old-fashioned. Pity we don’t have any like Zhukov today.
The Russians have said that they will go after decision-making centers for attacks on Russia. I don’t see that happening – at least that we know of concerning Crimea. IMHO this is how the west is able to claim – even if self-delusion – that Russia’s word is not worth paying attention to.
Well they are attacking Russia and from what i have seen are getting away with it so far,i hope i am wrong the days to come will show if i am.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11125045/Russian-ammunition-warehouse-Ukraine-border-erupts-huge-fireball.html
The ammo dump, located close to the town of Timonovo in the Belgorod region of western Russia, ignited around 6pm BST/8pm local time, sending flames and huge plumes of smoke rising into the air.
Hmmmmm…?
Biden releasing another 800m for military support…..
The other salient feature of the present military fact is that Russia is not so much fighting Ukraine as fighting NATO.
I think the key to minimizing the terrorism is to win the economic war. The terrorists need bases and of course funding, otherwise they cant function. Russia should continue promoting the eastward economic momentum to safeguard its economy and at the same time press collective west by minimizing trade with them. No gas to Europe. Gradually they will find some substitution but they will certainly lose their conpetitiveness. Then hopefully some day (in my dreams) they understand and begin to think independently.
So any chance that Russia will decide to finish off Ukraine with a Shock and Awe campaign in order to totally neutralize, remove and replace the Ukrainian leadership ?
@ Harry_Red on August 19, 2022 · at 7:24 am EST/EDT
So any chance that Russia will decide to finish off Ukraine with a Shock and Awe campaign in order to totally neutralize, remove and replace the Ukrainian leadership ?
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Napoleon’s maxim “Never interrupt your enemy when is making a mistake” has been around for a few centuries.
The contradiction Zelensky/Zaluzhnyi has been very beneficial so far in the taking of several cities and towns, among them Lisichansk/Severodonetsk, in which the UkroWerhmacht was routed in part for the inability of their C&C to present a unified front. Zaluzhnyi wanted to “evacuate” (UkroWerhmacht euphemism for retreat in defeat), while Zelensky wanted to fight to the last Ukrainian, as usual.
The same contradiction has become a pattern between them. Both of them also strive to become “favorites” of the puppet masters who are leading the war from behind. There are rumors the US is looking at Zalushnyi as a possible replacement for Zelensky, in a potential coup d’etat/regime change, orchestrated by the usual suspects.
So, why get rid of them? They are useful where they are.
Lone Wolf
PS: In general, it is wrong to second-guess decisions made by people who have much better idea of what is happening in Battlefield Ukraine, that we will ever do. You can only trust the Russian High Command is doing the best they can to wage this war to the best of their abilities.
Just a thought. So far Russia played nice. What i understand is that it basically is trying to avoid as much as possible destroying infrastructure, killing civilians etc. Russia is also planning as i understand a new offensive. Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolayev. This time only they want to use a little bit more brute force The American way of war. To stop the supplies to the front totally. So it needs to blow up all rail lines bridges roads to the south and east. And they can start around Kiev or maybe the Lvov. Maybe also blow up water supply or energy supply (because winter is coming), to force Ukrainians (and Russians Ukrainians) to choose who they love more. The public in Russia need to be made ready for more brute force. Some brute attacks deep inside Russia made help shape the public opinion. Again just a thought. Every things goes under the fog of war.
«Maybe also blow up water supply»
That would be arguably a war crime. It was what the ruthenian fascists did to the Donbas and Crimea though.
«or energy supply (because winter is coming)»
No need: most of Ukraine’s energy was supplied from the Russian Federation, and the RF military now control several electricity plants, and anyhow the ukrainian fascists don’t have the money or the logistics to import fuels.
And, bullet point seven:
Western Special Forces are active in the Ukraine, with expertise in sabotage and targeting, and with easy access to explosives, weapons and intelligence and the ability to aid and support local groups.
Also, I assume (?) that when Russia gives a passport to a Ukrainian, or anyone, they require basic identifying information such as: name, address, age, photo, next of kin and maybe email and telephone No. ? This basic information would immediately provide a useful database to security services and help to filter out Nazis.
Russia should have gone into Donbass once the Nazi terror started in 2014,they didn’t,now thereis a massive fortification built by Nazo its costing more lives to overcome that defence and thousands of civilians have dies in Donbass and are still dying.
With regard to Ukranian sabotage inside Russian territory the question may be raised who is actually planning and coordinating these operations: Is the Ukranian SBU running this with help of the MI6 or is the MI6 running this with help of the SBU? At present the SBU is being cleared of anti-Zelensky elements. My guess is that the SBU is not the main instigator of sabotage inside Russia.
The Ukranian army has already suffered such enormous losses in all extensions of its fighting ability, that the question may be raised: where to find Ukranian recrutes for manning such sabotage units? My own guess is that the MI6 (& CIA) have their own ‘sleeping’ sabotage groups inside Russia, who are now able to start operations under the Ukranian flag (with western support of the MSM), but who are just of Russian (anti-Putin, pro MI6/CIA agents) provenance.
There is something else going on at the ZNPP:
The secret Ukrainian military programs
https://www.voltairenet.org/article217092.html
Came across this in May 2022 – check the nuclear section, everyone already heard the biological stuff.
“Rafael Grossi of Argentina, who heads the International Atomic Energy Agency, incidentally said at the Davos Forum on May 25 that Ukraine had stored 30 tons of plutonium and 40 tons of enriched uranium at its Zaporizhia plant and that his agency was wondering what had happened to them.” WSJ – Needs to be verified.
Value of such quantities, depending on enrichment, around $300 billion.
Where is it, who enriched it?
Valeur de ces quantités, selon l’enrichissement, environ 300 milliards de dollars.
Où est-il,
au tout début lorsque l’usine a été prise par les Russes ils ont déclaré avoir récupéré l’uranium …
Serious questions should be asked, not sleeping in fantasies. One might be that Russian energy is hundreds of times more effective weapon than any their military putting so called west down on its kneens. No economy survives with energy prices on this high level. We are talking about 500-800 €/MWh price during next 12 months, not just some spot prices. That’s another story.
“Electricity for delivery the next day in the SE4 price zone of southern Sweden hit an all-time high of 540.47 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) at the Nord Pool auction on Tuesday.
In the Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, which are connected to the Swedish market through a subsea cable, one afternoon hour for Wednesday hit 4,000 euros/MWh, the maximum price possible.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/record-power-prices-spur-uniper-run-reserve-oil-fired-plant-sweden-2022-08-16/
4000 €/MWh in Baltic States, record peak price ever in European energy history – and in August.
The Ukraines nuclear troubles stem from the same type of people who try to hijack a web like the Sakers, if they cant control it, they don’t want you to control it either, and they go to extreme extents to accomplish their task.
Our best hope is that they are good, but not quite that good, yet.
Their time is short, and the distance is long.
https://readovka.news/news/108796
Former and current employees of ZNPP call on Ukraine to stop shelling the station
“They said there was no doubt that the shells were coming from Ukraine. “
The addendum nails it. The ‘freak out’ just highlights the fear being pumped out by western media and ‘leaders’. It’s their bread and butter. Fear is a paralytic and will certainly cause one to not be able to make rational deductions about the subject at hand. And it works with modern man as modern man is not a rational animal but an irrational creature.
And the real danger not being the one we instinctively think of first … ? That raises many questions but is strangely comforting to hear.
Many people raise the same points re: not holding other nations responsible, in kind, for their murderous contributions. I waffle on that. I, like most, would like to see this come to a rapid conclusion. I, like most, would like to see justice meted out to the contributors to this madness, to see them punished.
Are ongoing wars such a money maker that Russia benefits too? Blasphemy to mention but one wonders.
I describe such action a terrorism. When everyting and everyone can be a target it’s impossible to stop each attack. I can undertstand attacks against military targets but not citizens, some might not have a choice to cooperate. Should Russia react? They have shown a lot of patience, they could use the same tactics against Ukrainian officials and other interest of value to give the message that suck terrorist action will be met wet the same action.
For weeks the media has been playing with a Cherson counter offensive. The things one read is incredible. An artical said Russian military superieurs have fled Cherson to the other side of the river leaving 20k troops alone.Where do they get this? Ukraine is mostly n war with bridges, They keep destroying their own infrastructure. But probably we will see terrorist attacks in Russia. Will they still keep quite?
The Nazis and their US/NATO patrons have been hyping up this Ukie “Kherson counteroffensive” for five consecutive weeks. But during that entire time, Kiev has not even attempted to move forward. The Nazis have concentrated lots of infantry in and around Nikolayev, but otherwise, there’s clearly been no offensive.
By this point, the world has grown skeptical of the much-ballyhooed “Kherson counteroffensive.” Even Western MSM – normally a cesspool of pro-Ukie propaganda – has tired of Kiev’s Kherson claims. Nobody seriously expects any Nazi advance on Kherson anymore.
Here, see for yourselves. Even pro-Nazi Western MSM no longer believes the nonsense about a Kherson counteroffensive.
Ukrainian Southern Counteroffensive ‘Unlikely’ as Russia Bolsters Forces
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/08/18/ukrainian-southern-counteroffensive-unlikely-as-russia-bolsters-forces-a78604
Ukraine has telegraphed its big counteroffensive for months. So where is it?
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/16/ukraine-russia-kherson-00052285
A Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson faces steep odds
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/08/14/a-ukrainian-counter-offensive-in-kherson-faces-steep-odds
Ukraine Needs A Miracle To Drive Russia’s Military Out Of Kherson
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/ukraine-needs-a-miracle-to-drive-russias-military-out-of-kherson/
In my opinion, the Ukraine’s catastrophically high casualties during the Lugansk battles of May and June have drained the Nazi infantry of combat effective fighters. Most of the best Nazi soldiers were killed, wounded, or burned-out in that battle, which the Ukraine clearly lost. The remaining Nazi troops are likely third and fourth rate conscripts. That’s probably why the Nazis are consigning themselves to maintaining defensive positions in and around Nikolayev.
I’m certainly no military analyst, but that’s my best guess about the Nazi army’s present ability to commit large numbers of infantry to any battle, offensive or defensive.
Removed – stop spreading dis-information. Mod.
Colonel Cassad on Ukraine’s terror campaign against Russians in Donbass, Crimea, and Russian territory.
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https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7809771.html
UAVs near Kerch and Sevastopol
In addition to the traditional shelling of Donetsk and Horlivka, the enemy has been actively shelling Svitlodarsk today, and there are many dead, including children.
Also today, they blew up a warehouse in the Belgorod region, scattered “Petals” in the region, and also tried to attack the Kerch Bridge and Belbek airfield with UAVs (2 UAVs were shot down-1 in the Belbek area, 1 in the Kerch area). Well, the shelling of ZAES and Energodar continues.
Regarding questions about what to do about it, my position has not changed since the spring.
1. The SBU and the Main Directorate of Internal Affairs of the Ministry of Defense must be officially recognized as terrorist organizations. Members of these organizations and their associates should automatically be treated in the same way as terrorists and associates of ISIL.
2.As a demonstrative response, strikes on the central and regional departments of the SBU, as well as the objects of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, including in Kiev, are highly desirable.
3. As a response to the strikes on the Zaporizhia NPP, force the disconnection of Ukraine from the ZAES. Demonstratively, as a response measure, destroy several thermal power plants, as well as strike at the infrastructure of underground gas storage facilities. Object selection is actually optional.
Terrorism must have a price that Ukraine, or what’s left of it, must pay on a long-term basis.
Hysteria is not needed here, we need methodical and systematic strikes on the infrastructure of terror and its infrastructure and economic base, regardless of the priority issues of conducting a military operation to defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Ukrainian Theater of Operations.
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Lone Wolf
I posted something about your military reports at the Cafe today.
The worst case senario as promoted by media exists but I read that it would be easy to SCRAM those reactors if necessary. There would be no Fukushima type event if so. The problem is that the reactors were not designed to be restarted and so the facility would then be a total loss. Making E Ukraine uninhabiable is well within the ideology of the Zionazis and it seems it would be be an effective way to accomplish this if the Nazis could effectively detonate the spent fuel supply. But it would have to be a perfect demolition and this should be possible to prevent especially as this scenario would have been planned for. Plus industrial safeguards can be implemented to prevent disbursal of radioactive materials.
“if the Nazis could effectively detonate the spent fuel supply”
Two points:
1. The Westinghouse supplied spent nuclear fuel is in the form of ceramic encased uranium oxide which is not pyrophoric. In contrast, the US Hanford N reactor site had some two million pounds of leaking metallic uranium containing fuel rods from nuclear submarines in the cooling pond. If a plane on 9/11 had crashed into the pond the radiation from the “burning’ of this pyrophoric soup continuing massive amounts of Cs137 and Sr90 would have contaminated a large swath of the US.
2. Many reports about massive amounts of plutonium at the ZNPP site. The quantities mentioned are equivalent to 50% of the plutonium recovered from nine Hanford WA reactors dedicated to plutonium production. This is complete nonsense as the nuclear sludge waste tanks from plutonium extraction (some 30 million gallons) do not exist at the ZNPP site.
https://www.hanford.gov/page.cfm/purex
Furthermore, the ZNPP reactors were used for power generation and would be depleted in the most useful isotope of plutonium for bomb production.
Correction: it was some 5.5 million metric tons of metallic uranium at the K-basin ponds
“Even more scary were the K-basin ponds where 2,100 metric tons of Zircaloy-clad, metallic uranium spent nuclear fuel and about 3.4 metric tons) of aluminum-clad metallic uranium spent fuel were stored”:
http://www.wmsym.org/archives/2000/pdf/54/54-9.pdf
Single-pass reactors such as at Hanford also release massive amounts of radiation from neutron activation:
Even the Downwinders review is incomplete, as it missed a major study that pointed out that up to five million curies of radiation per year were released from the single-pass plutonium reactors at the Hanford site:
“Sediment Quality and Eco-risk Assessment Factors for a Major River System”
https://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10140834
Armchair general here – At ease! ;) So dumb question: is it really necessary for RF to keep 90% of the regular military in reserve? And 2: could part of this be used to knock a hole in Ukr defences and tip the balance?
Great article, Andrei! I was worried about the ZNPP. Thanks for placing the real danger in context.
The seventh column, You totally misunderstood what I said. Did you read Andrei’s article? What he clearly says is that the ZNPP destruction would NOT prevent a Russian victory. Doesn’t this mean that the ukronasis know this and thus would not bother about bombing it? They are threatening this terror attack but will probably not do it as it is not essential for them to win the war while most of the radiation would affect Ukraine itself, north and west mostly, thus being suicide if they did it.
When you say Russia is not a ‘real democracy’, you show clearly that you cannot understand the importance of Russia’s reaction to the outside threats against it at this time in history…
Now, something very sinister has just happened – a car bomb in Moscow killing Darya Dugina, the daughter of Alexander Dugin… This is a kind of Gladio Operation in Moscow. I believe that it is equivalent to a war on Russia, now. There is no better proof of the western wrongdoings than this very tragic occurrence… Russia will react accordingly, I have no doubt.
Agreed that diversionary actions will remain a problem for Russia and the liberated areas of the Ukraine. However, Russia is certainly greatly benefiting from similar covert capabilities. Those high level military meetings abruptly ended by a missile strike, temporary staging areas of foreign mercenaries wiped out, NATO weapons storage areas destroyed, etc. may be facilitated by Ukrainians supplying information to Russia. For every successful diversionary strike against Russia, there are likely multiple times more examples of the reverse. IIR, Zelensky fired his top leadership over “leaks” and “traitors” working for Russia.
Regarding the strikes against the ZNP nuclear power site, I tend to agree that the danger is being exaggerated by all sides. A successful strike against a cooling pool could cause very localized radioactive contamination that would hamper normal operation of the plant but can certainly be mitigated by specialists. Both sides are playing this up for propaganda purposes.
Welcome back Saker – your are better than ever!
Probably already noted. If the Ukrainian/NATO provocations continue unabated, are duly noted in official channels, until they are intolerable. It seems shutting down the reactors would be the safe thing to do. What’s that saying, F the EU?
The Russians seem to know that the US cannot reverse its course and wait a more than prudent amount of response time, still the Empire seems incapable of reading and understanding Russia’s concerns/promises. There is a limit!
It’s also clear the Russians waited to act until they felt equipped to take on all the bullies at once.
Russia’s deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov has said, “The ever more obvious and deeper involvement in Ukraine in terms of countering our military operation, in fact, puts this country, the US, on the verge of turning into a party to the conflict,”
Rather than following some sober moral principle, the NATO regime seems hell bent to believe and act according to its propaganda.
I understand the way so many Americans stirring malevolent calls to escalate any threat with even more violence, too much tv and Hollywood. How many movies end with a peace agreement?
Odd little clip of Nazis being hung after Nuremburg, poster wonders if anyone can translate the audio.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/sBpIYPhxiBQY/
The taboo against using nuclear weapons is more of a political and emotional problem than it is grounded in physical and biochemical realities. Both Hiroshima and Nagasaki are thriving cities as of today, 77 years after nuclear bombs were dropped there. But the political situation is ripening for Russia being able to use tactical nuclear weapons to attack the sites from where the nuclear power plant is being shelled. A tactical nuke contains a few kilos of plutonium, far less than the hundreds of kilos or even tons of plutonium and other radioactive materials present in the spent fuel rods that are stored at this plant, and that might have their containment breached if the attacks continue, not to speak of the reactor cores themselves, although they are far harder to breach. So this is how the Russians could sell it to the world audience – Better to let a few tactical nukes go off to stop the Ukrainians from shelling the plant, than to risk widespread contamination from a far bigger amount of nuclear fuel. More generally, the shelling proves that the Ukrainians cannot be entrusted with running any nuclear installation, ever, so handing the plant back to them is not an option either.
The West would still be making a big stink about it, but Russia does not care about the West anymore. What matters is only the global South. That’s the audience that needs be addressed. How about inviting the UN secretary general for consultations in Moscow, then ambushing him at a joint press conference by making the announcement, in his presence, that the shelling has to stop or else? That would make it hard for the media to distort the meaning of what is being said, or to suppress it. The global audience would hear it, the Ukrainians would have been given their forewarning and a chance to come to their senses, and if they still do not stop shelling the plant, then the political groundwork has been laid and tactical nukes can be used. If the Ukrainians respond by continuing the shelling from built-up areas, then nukes can still be used to pressure them by attacking targets like the Dnepr bridges. Civilians living close to such targets can be given forewarning to leave the area.
If the West wants to respond by giving nukes to Ukraine, then nukes can be used to attack all over Ukraine. That would bring the war to a fast conclusion.
Those two cities are livable today only because neither of the two bombs touched the ground (detonated at about 0.5 km altitude), minimizing radioactive contamination. If Russia did not care about civilian lives, it could have used powerful conventional weapons, like thermobarics or carpet bombing, to suppress shelling with a devastating effect.
To suppress artillery fire, air bursts like the ones in Hiroshima and Nagasaki would be used. It’s because the whole point of using nukes is being able to catch artillery units that use shoot-and-scoot tactics of rapid re-deployment. The large radius of destruction of a nuclear airburst is what is required to counter that.
As for the thermobaric weapons, I understand they have to be fired from close range, about five kilometers. That’s far too small a range to be able to suppress artillery fire that can come from 15 to 20 kilometers away. What is happening at the nuclear power plant is not a front line battle where the opposing forces get close enough to and sometimes intermingled with each other for conventional counter battery ops to be able to have an effect. It’s a terror campaign like the one against Donetsk but from across the Dnepr. All in all, the case for using nukes against these batteries seems to be a good one in purely military terms. That, and the danger of contamination from nuclear fule if the shelling does not stop, is precisely because a good politcal case can be communicated too.
Smells like US Seals or former Seal Mercs to me. Russia is winning the war and the Deep State is now forced to go asymmetric.