Russia plans to invite India, Pakistan and Iran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
This has been discussed for a very long time already, but this time it is official: Sergei Lavrov has just declared that at the next summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries Russia will propose to the initiate the process of accepting Iran a a full member alongside India and Pakistan.
Quick reminder: the following countries are currently member of the SCO: China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tadjikistan and Uzbekistan; the following countries are currently “observers” and, therefore, possible candidates: Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan while Belarus, Sri Lanka and Turkey are “dialog partners”. The near-future SCO would thus include all of the following full members: China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tadjikistan and Uzbekistan.
[Sidebar: It is also important to remember that the SCO is a security organization with a strong military component to it. While its main goal is the coordination of members states in their struggle against terrorism, separatism and extremism, the SCO has conducted a number of military exercises. The SCO is not a formal military alliance but it has at its core countries which are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) i.e., Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan, and Uzbekistan. We could very roughly say that the SCO has a function similar to NATO while the CSTO has a function comparable to the one of the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE). This comparison is not to be taken literally, but just as in Europe we can observe an economic alliance (the EU), a political security alliance (NATO) and a single purely military military command (SHAPE), so in Asia we see the Eurasian Economic Union (or EEU) being the economic alliance, SCO as a political security organization and the CSTO as a purely military organization].
Needless to say, the White House is absolutely horrified by all this: not only did the US oppose the creation of the SCO, CSTO and EEU at every step of the way, but the consolidation of these organization is a vivid illustration of the loss of influence and power of the USA. The USA tried to stop it, lobbied hard to prevent anybody from joining it, and even tried to ignore it – and they failed: the SCO is growing in membership and influence.
To make things worse, the BRICS states have now become an open and direct challenge to the USA’s economic hegemony over our planet. The folks in Washington are now very slowly becoming aware of the magnitude of the threat now faced by the Empire.
These developments also illustrate the dramatic contrast between US and Russian diplomatics methods and goals. While the US favors the classical “divide and conquer” method, Russia favors a “unite and lead” method which is designed to bring former enemies together (like India and Pakistan or China and India) and build large coalitions.
The prospect of Iran joining the SCO is seen by Washington as an overt provocation, as slap in the face of the Emperor, especially at a time when the US and the KSA are at war in Yemen precisely to isolate and “contain” Iran (of course, “containing” Russia, China and Iran all at the same time was not a very smart plan to begin with!). The US response is predictable: punish everybody involved with chaos. This time, it is tiny Macedonia which the object of US aggression (via the CIA-run UCK terrorists from Kosovo) with the deliberate desire to send everybody else the following message: side with Russia and you will pay, dearly. There have also been warnings by Russian analysts about the risks of ISIS/IS training in Georgia or a resumption of the Chechen insurgency, but this time around, with direct Ukronazi support. Uncle Sam is apparently trying to hit Russia in her “soft underbelly”, but this plan has no chance of success because no such soft underbelly exists any more.
The myth of the soft underbelly of Russia
Amongst the many myths of old style geopolitics was the famous “soft underbelly of Russia”. To be fair, there was some truth to that, but not much. Nowadays, however, this is absolutely false.
In reality, the combined results of the two wars in Chechnia, the war against Georgia, the civil war in the Ukraine, the terrorist threat in Dagestan, the Wahabi insurgency in Tadjikistan and the US-created chaos created in Iraq have all contributed to the definition and implementation of a long-term Russian policy to “armor her belly”.
The earliest manifestation of this policy was the decision to deploy the elite 201 Motor-Rifle division in Tadjikistan in direct support of the combined Russian-Tadjik border guard forces. Later, this division was re-named the 201st Base to reflect he unique capabilities of this unit. At the present time, subunits of this base are located in 3 Tadjik cities and “cover” all the critical areas. The 201 is, by any standard, a formidable force, far superior to anything Tadjikistan or Afghanistan could deploy. But the Russians went one step further: the recently tested the ability of Russian Airborne forces to deploy within hours to Tadjikistan: without any warning, elements of the 98th Airborne Division were put on alert and transported with all their equipment and weapons to southern Tadjikistan.
Emblem of the CSTO
This exercise was specifically conducted under the aegis of the rapid reaction forces of the CSTO and was designed to test the Russian ability to project her military power right to the Tadjik-Afghan border.
Currently, the Russian security posture towards Afghanistan relies on the following layers: first, maintaining a good working relationship with the Tadjik population of northern Afghanistan; next – strengthening the Tadjik border guards and regular military forces by providing them with instructors and equipment; next deploying Russian border guard troops alongside their Tadjik colleagues; then, to maintain a powerful combat “fist” in the form of the 201 Base and, finally, to be ready to reinforce the 201st with Airborne Forces and aviation elements. As a result, Russia is now capable of deploying an extremely powerful combat group within 48 hours anywhere in, or near, Tadjikistan.
Another example of the “armored underbelly of Russia” is the no-less formidable 58th Army which is located in and around Chechnia whose recent combat record includes defeating the Chechen Wahabis in 2000 and the Georgian military in 2008. The 58th Army is one of the best trained and best equipped army in the Russian armed forces. Now it can also count on the full support of the Chechen forces loyal to Ramzan Kadyrov which are beyond any doubt the most best trained and experienced forces in the Caucasus. Should the ISIS/IS crazies ever try to penetrate into the Caucasus (say, via Georgia) they would be met by an extremely powerful military force which would be superior to anything Syria or Iraq could deploy.
Finally, there is the Black Sea fleet which in the Soviet days was considered the least capable and, frankly, least important of the four Soviet Fleets (Northern, Pacific, Baltic and, last, Black Sea – in order of importance). Now, with the civil war in the Ukraine and after the war in Georgia, the Black Sea has re-acquired a new found importance, especially as “Crimea’s Fleet”. Russian officials have announced that they will greatly strengthen not only the group of forces in Crimea, but also the Black Sea Fleet.
The solution chosen by Russia was the creation in Crimea a separate “military grouping” comprising 96 formations and units and whose tasks will include not only the protection of Russian interests in the Black Sea and on the Crimean Federal District, but also to “meet the challenges in the long-range maritime zone.” In other words – power projection.
The Crimean “fortress”, the Black Sea Fleet, the 58th Army and the 201st Base are all part of a new, armored, Russian hard underbelly which is quite ready to deal with any threat coming from the south.
Crimea, Chechnia and Tadjikistan – the new *hard* underbelly of Russia
Conclusion
Over the past decades Russia has invested tremendous resources into the development of multi-dimensional policy towards the South and the East. On a political level, organizations such as the SCO, the CSTO and the BRICS are all forming a network of alliances which Russian can count on for support. On a military level, Russia has placed “military locks” her southern flank in the Black Sea, Caucasus and Central Asia and has developed the capabilities to send powerful reinforcements to these “locks”. In effect, Russia has created a “cordon sanitaire” to protect herself from the instability on her southern border. This combination of political and military measure have given Russia a great degree of flexibility in responding to any crisis or challenge.
The Saker
interesting analysis.
means now Russia can focus on Artic grid and eastern most flanks …
sorry.don’t have the complete power projections capabilities of these areas plus US could try to make Japan more military aggressive by making them change their constitution and creating SDF (self defense forces) and upgrading and placing their military assets there
Central Asia is too important a place for Eurasian Union to be not given due focus and help
if I am not mistaken President Xi …announced his Silk Belt while on a visit to Kazakhstan a couple of years ago..
thanks Saker
“US could try to make Japan more military aggressive by making them change their constitution and creating SDF (self defense forces)”
Japan doesn’t intend to be a US-vassal for eternity. Therefore Japan will be eager to build up their SDF – in tandem with US interests – only to jump ship when US-dollar implodes and the money-printing-presses come to a shrieking halt.
The US is already busy doing this in Japan much to the chagrin of most of the population. And America claims they don’t occupy foreign territories by way of force. They have never lifted the boot off either Germany or Japan since ww2. And all those nuclear power plants-simply to supply America with enough nuclear material to keep making bombs. This at home and abroad.
When it comes to strategy and geopolitics, most “soft underbellies” usually aren’t. Churchill was hell-bent on hitting the “soft underbelly” of Germany in WW I through the Dardanelles and in WW II through the Balkans and Italy.
The Gallipoli campaign was a complete catastrophe that cost him his Cabinet position, and the Italian campaign was almost as big a disaster. If Amerika’s recent Charlie Foxtrot forays into Iraq and Afghanistan had similar aims vs Russia, then the “underbelly proponents” are currently 0-4 — yet it appears that the genius neocons in charge of the USSA’s global strategy are determined to keep doing the failed, stupid plan. We can only hope that the record goes to 0-5, 0-6, 0-7… until economic bankruptcy ends their game.
The soft underbelly in the region of Greece wasn’t all that tender and yielding in 1941, either. Churchill sent in British forces to help the Greeks, only to see them smashed by the unyielding steel fist of the Wehrmacht heading south – in a hurry. They didn’t stop till they got to Crete, and seriously damaged Admiral Cunningham’s Mediterranean Fleet into the bargain. (Not to say that it wasn’t an unintentional master stroke of strategy, as it may have delayed Barbarossa just long enough to save Moscow).
Another ‘benefit” of the Crete fiasco was the death of the German airborne forces — they were never used in another mass airdrop for the rest of the war.
As far as the delay to Barbarossa, the debate still goes on whether the late start was due to the Balkans campaign or a late spring rasputitsa. Given the need for Churchill to explain his blunder of stripping British forces from North Africa to send to Greece just as they were about to run the Eyties into the Med, plus the human tendency to want to see heroic results from doomed resistance (“the brave Yugoslav and Greek sacrifice saved the Allies”), I tend to agree with the rainy spring thesis….
@Tom Welsh,
You forget that the British invaded Greece before the Germans did. The British pretext was to help Greece against the Italians, who to the anger of Hitler and without informing him, had decided to invade Albania and Greece. The positioning of British bombers in Greece gave the British the opportunity to bomb the oil fields of Ploesti in Romania, the only source of oil the Germans had, leaving the Germans no choice but to intervene in Greece. Which was precisely the aim of the British: to spread German forces thin. And give their secret Soviet allies a few extra months to prepare for the invasion of Europe. The British never expected to prevail against the Germans, but the British achieved that the Germans additionally had to invade Yugoslavia and Greece, just like the British had managed to bring the war to Norway in 1940, by attacking the only source of iron ore the Germans had, from Narvik.
All the Germans ever wanted was Danzig, which brought them into war with Britain and France on instigation of the AngloZionists, just like the AnglosZionists are using Ukraine to foment war against Russia:
http://tinyurl.com/otlft7h
Goal in both cases: add countries to your world empire via war.
Glad to see a correct reading of history here. The untold story of how the Germans were manipulated into war needs to find the late of day.
As for Gallipoli, it has been argued (by Gerry Docherty and Jim Macgregor) that the campaign was designed to fail, intentionally, purposefully.
World War I and the British Empire: The Gallipoli Campaign, The Untold Story
Gallipoli 1: The Enduring Myth
Not sure what to make of it. Would imply billiard thinking by the British leadership. On the other hand, maybe this is indeed what they’re trying to accomplish, sometimes … to create scenarios where others act, unwittingly, according to British designs.
Like many other “controversial” themes, the real reasons of the failure of the Gallipoli campaign have been exposed long ago.
“Brest-Litovsk the Forgotten Peace, March 1918”, by John W. Wheeler-Bennett, was first published in 1938 and illuminates many obscure aspects of both WWI and WWII.
[The situation in 1915 led to] “a series of desultory and unrelated attempts [by Russia] to negotiate a separate peace with Germany, carried on through financial and commercial agencies, through the King of Sweden, and through the Grand Duke of Hesse, brother of the Tsaritsa. These attempts were aided and abetted by the German agents who poured into Russia and sought to foster the cause of peace by playing upon the nervous sensibilities of the Conservatives, emphasizing the danger of revolution from within and of the betrayal of Russia by her Allies. Britain, it was alleged, was planning to deprive Russia of her legitimate spoils of war by keeping Constantinople for herself and creating a new Gibraltar at the Dardanelles. France and Japan were said to have agreed to this move, the latter at the price of the promise of expansion into Manchuria. This so disturbed the Russian Government that at the Inter- Allied Conference at Chantilly, in November 1915, the Russian representative advised most earnestly the abandonment of the Gallipoli campaign.”
The operation was not planned to fail. They just fail to fool the Russians. The policy of Britain was always to prevent Russia obtaining Constantinople and the Straits. The reason why Britain engaged in the Crimean War, risked war with Russia in I878, and sent the Mediterranean fleet through the Dardanelles. It was this occasion which gave rise to the popular song which gave the “Jingoes” their name, a song which had for its refrain the words:
“We’ve fought the Bear before, we can fight the Bear again,
But the Russians shall not have Constantinople.”
The operation was simply aborted.
Books like Sean McMeekin, The Russian Origins of the First World War. Cambridge: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2011, in which the author turns history on its head only to put the blame for WWI on the eternal desire of Russia to occupy Constantinople (book recalled from near oblivion on the occasion of the Centenary of WWI, with clear allusions at Crimea) are essential BS.
Thank you, WizOz.
WizOz
Gallipoli was indeed setup to fail. Docherty & Macgregor make an overwelmingly strong case for it. Churchill and Kitchener explicitly stated that it must fail. Russias Sazonov was successfully fooled and Russia was made not to make a separate peace with Germany. In 1917 the british prevented the russians from going to the straits by causing the february ‘revolution’.
The Caspian missile fleet will add a lot of flexibility and force projection to these groupings one would think.
The Saker do you think the Ukraine will ultimately be partitioned or will it become a confederation.?
I have never heard of a naval fleet in the Caspian Sea,to what purpose?
It is a very big lake with lots of goodies to be extracted.
Please provide links to this,or did you mean Black Sea fleet?
cheeras.
Don’t be lazy! Do your own research and stop asking ignorant, time-wasting questions of informed people. Google Caspian flotilla.
Here you go mate,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_Flotilla
The ignorant calling itself anonymous 2 could have given you that link,but they prefer to act superior.
Your comment about ‘unite and lead’ is something I thought Russia would try and apply with regard to the Turkish-Greek conflict. Help bring them together, and at the same time ply Greece away from the EU. Any thoughts as to whether Russia has considered this ?
Anonymous, some analysts think Russia wants Greece inside of EU to vote against sanctions, which require a unanimous vote to extend. Also if Greece succeeded in softening or “democratizing” Brussels’ attitude toward debt/welfare of of its members I spose that wd be a good thing.
Remember that Russia hasn’t come out as opposing existence of EU; has even said might someday join!
But then Russia herself is looking to form a common currency in EEU, so go figure!
And with the accession of Iran to the SCO, Russia’s southern approaches would be still better protected.
Did you mean to write Ramzan Kadyrov, Akhmads son?
I am sure they are loyal to the Akhmad memory.
yes, sorry, will correct that
You have better sources than myself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZzY4crjS1Y
That was the closest I could find,but the camera angle is wrong.
This was a re-broadcast,the origonal I saw, was Zakharchenko saying “I won’t be able to do the fast dance[?] anymore, it will have to be the slow dance [waltz?] in future”.
And the two men by the bedside were Plonitsky and Kadyrov.
It might have been Kazzura.
cheers.
Doesn’t sound so elite.
“To replace the division’s mass desertions, the government has relied first on Russian conscripts and then on volunteers serving under contract as of 1995. Even with the new volunteers, the division has only around 7,000 men or half the establishment of a standard motor rifle division. Some perks have been added to attract volunteers such as longer leave and double the pay of normal units. In 1999, the Russian and Tajik government agreed to convert the division into the 4th Military Base. However, due to continued violence in the region the 201st remains a fully active division. Currently there is a six month training course for the division and a six month tour of duty in Tajikistan. This serves as the entire two year service requirement of Russian males, but manpower continues to be a problem. Equipment continues to be rather out of date as some of the division’s arms date to the Afghan war. The division maintains a line of static defensive posts along the Afghanistan border to prevent raids by rogue Taliban fighters. In 2001 the division came under command of the 2nd Army of the newly amalgamated Volga-Ural Military District.
On 13 August 2003 the 201st Motor Rifle Division participated in a joint exercise with the Tajik military 10 km southwest of Dushanbe at the Lyaur testing ground.
At one point during the civil war in Tajikistan, soldiers of the 201st Motor Rifle Division safely escorted staff of the American Embassy in Dushanbe to the airport for evacuation. This marks the only time in history that Americans have officially asked for and been given protection by the Russian military.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/201st_Motor_Rifle_Division
Wikipedia article from 10 years ago? Stellar source
In my opinion, the Wiki information is out of date, and not reflective of the changes in the Russian military, since the election of President Putin in 2012, with the budget increases and appointment of General Shoygu as Minister of Defence. I watched the videos of a number of Victory Day parades posted on the Colonel Cassad site, including regional events in Sevastopol and a suburb of Yekaterinburg (where the Romanovs were doomed). It was the civilian aspect that most intrigued me. There was tremendous pride in the civilian participants. Children were dressed in miniature uniforms. This is not the population morale condition that may lead to low morale and desertion in the military, or even tolerate it. On the contrary, this civilian attitude only supports high morale and dedication, which is also currently demonstrated in the Donbass. Just think of the discipline being exhibited by the Novorussian armed forces in controlling their responses to provocations so as to maintain the Minsk 2 accord for the time being. I think the Saker’s analysis above is likely much more accurate than is Wiki.
Some indication of the Chechnyan and Russian military power in the Caucusus, on demonstration at the Victory Day parade in Grozny. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWxEHYUfLMA Isn’t Grozny a beautiful, modern, green city?
Earlier, President Kadyrov’s expression of gratitude and loyalty to President Putin. /ramzan-kadyrov-offers-putin-his-own-personal-volunteer-chechen-special-force/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwZ1yWkhh_s
Georgia and NATO cannot match this.
Anon #2 – thank you so much for that wonderful first link of the white horse trotting down the rows of soldiers. Kadyrov’s really into horses….me too….that is a truly exceptionally beautiful horse….wow.
Yes anon 2 – that victory day parade was fabulous…gets better and better…that man that parachuted to the center of the activities…wow
Russia has offered a hand to Germany & France; they didn’t accept it. Russia has offered a hand to Greece, & things are getting off the ground.
Grexit or not Grexit, that is the question: The EU memo hence, is hardly the latest chapter of the “save Greece saga”, but by now we can be confident that, one way or the other, quick and dirty or with EU-footed “debt relief”, Greece will be offered to remain in the Eurozone. Will it accept? It is not just a financial decision. It is a highly political, almost civilization one. To remain in the Eurozone means to stay under Brussels and Washington. To exit, might open up other opportunities. Greece has indeed been invited by Russia to join the New Development Bank (NDB).
Everybody talks about Grexit, like that would be even an option. Unfortunately, the USA won’t allow any nation to walk out from its Europe-wide labor-camp, misnamed EU, that easily.
If you Greece wants to grexit, they have to escape by night. But do they have the arms to defend themselves ready?
Zweistein, I don’t think that it’s true that US wd prevent Greece leaving Eurozone, since both Greece & EU have been discussing it w/o any US response. However, I understand that there is a debt clause which cd make Greece’s gold subject to forfeiture, so it wd be wise to ship this elsewhere for safe-keeping.
Gina, I’m assuming Tsipras will not choose to Grexit: He seems intent on receiving next loan installment– even to the point of almost bankrupting the country to make the next payment on the last loan. He’s repeatedly said that Greece will repay her creditors in full. If he were going to Grexit surely a main advantage w/b to default.
Personally, it seems crazy to me to borrow in order to repay principal and interest on the last loan. Background on how they got into debt reveals banksters acts:
4/8/15 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-08/odious-debt-has-finally-arrived-greece-write-illegal-debt Excerpts:
Zoi Konstantopoulou, the head of the Greek parliament and a SYRIZA member, released two videos which have promptly gone viral, designed to promote the investigative parliamentary committee to look into the circumstances surrounding the signing of the country’s two bailout agreements that led Greece to implement its austerity measures.
According to Greek Reporter, Konstantopoulou has said that the newly established “Debt Truth Committee,” will investigate how much of the debt is “illegal” with a view to writing it off.
Proving that this is more than just a populist stunt, during a vote that took place early yesterday, out of the 300 Greek MPs, 156 voted in favor of establishing the public debt auditing committee.
“The committee will examine how Greece entered into the bailout agreements with its international lenders, as well as any other matter related to the memoranda’ implementation,” SYRIZA Parliamentary Secretary Christos Mantas had explained earlier.
Penelope
Thx for the link! It seems to be possible that Greece stays in the EU & becomes a member of the BRICS New Development Bank.
Greece ‘Pleasantly Surprised’ by Russia’s Invitation to Join BRICS Bank
Moscow’s invitation to become a member of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) came as a “pleasant surprise” to Greece as the country does not want to limit its foreign policy to the EU and Eurozone membership only, a source in the Greek government told Sputnik Thursday.
What about the Turkish Stream? Greece as a member of the EU & Turkey as a Nato member …
May 9th, 2015
US Pressures EU via IMF Over Greece’s Permanence in the Euro
for both the ladies above …..
if Greece decides to live the EURO zone, this operation mast be engaged quietly and by the cover of darkness ….. because since that decision is out in the open, the retaliations by the ¨money masters syndicate¨, of the Brussels – London – Frankfurt and Paris (this in fact controls the EU) it will take the form of full scale war, or something similar at power and destruction ….
the new south stream gas pipeline from Turkey – Greece – FYRoM – Serbia, under the supervision of Russia it will be delayed if not canceled …. even the TAP gas pipeline it will be canceled for other reasons …..
and consider all the above apart of which party, is elected as Greek government …. because the old rogue political establishment, this rotten ¨political corpse¨, which led us as in this economic status, is still in decision making position ….
the Greek nation can indeed to choose to become the sixth partner at the BRICS, an official proposal was made … but we need the first capital, for the application to be normal, which we don’t have it …… God bless ….
GEODETIS ……
If insurgents are still stuck on “blood and guts” terrorism, then the Russian military will probably be effective. If the insurgents are smart and attack Russian energy infrastructure, then the military will be useless. The soft underbelly of Russia is its physical energy market, and it is already surrounded by possible attackers (chechen immigrants or anyone with a grudge). Unless the Russian military has armed guards every 100 meters along the entire stretch of pipeline, rail line, etc, then this military deployment is little more than a WW2 reenactment. When all the attackers have to do is put a propane tank in the right place, 48 hours is plenty of time to get away.
The Russians are being like the Americans in that they think that mass mobilizations are relevant. They can be if non state attackers are trying to take a hold ground. But if Islamic State wants to attack Russia, and they are doing it the way its supposed to be done, Russian energy infrastructure will be turned to scrap metal and Russian military will be little more than furniture in the room. The Russian underbelly is very real, just as it is with any industrial nation state. Just because the Russians aren’t being attacked doesn’t mean that vulenerability isn’t there. Considering the vastness of their energy infrastructure, they can probably only pursue the worst policy of all: rely on not being attacked where they can’t afford to be attacked.
If infrastructure is as much of an exposed vulnerability as you say “in any industrial country” why haven’t we seen a spate of such attacks? Certainly Russia isn’t lacking enemies with grudges, nor the US, nor China, nor the EU.
If what you say is accurate, then there would be a plethora of instances. One can only assume infrastructure isn’t as easy a target as you claim. Or that propane tanks don’t do much damage. Either way, your theory fails.
Anonymous, re: infrastructure vulnerability. I have a friend who went to a rough high school. He said that altho there were fights everybody avoided damaging personal property– bikes, cars, etc.– cuz they realized that they were ALL vulnerable.
True,if US/EU stooges took to doing that.You would then see double that number of US and EU infrastructure “strangely” all of a sudden exploding or catching fire all over those countries.
A powerful Rifle shot into the right transformer can knock out half a city.
I wonder about security/detection electronics and surveillance (including satellite and drones) and rapid reaction force, though, as well as intelligence and finding the attackers afterwards and taking them out. It may not be quite so easy to attack infrastructure and get away with it now. How much risk would an attack be worth?
Don,
It has been happening; you just haven’t noticed.
“why haven’t we seen a spate of such attacks?”
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2004/12/chechens_find_r.html (record of Chechen insurgent attacks)
Other instances include: Iraqi insurgency against US/UK corporate infrastructure post invasion, MEND campaign Nigeria, Houthi pipeline and powerline attacks, Al-quada Pakistan blackout, Naxalite cell phone tower attacks, Israeli-Jordan gas pipeline demolition campaign in Egypt, Mexican drug cartel power grid attacks, etc. Historically, there was the British anti Turkish railline campaign (Lawrence of Arabia) and the Allied attack against Nazi rail lines (Putin’s father).
The main reasons you don’t hear about this is because people rarely get hurt, caught or killed. Nothing bleeds, nothing leads. The other reason is because companies and governments don’t like publicity on this issue. These instances don’t get the same type of coverage like blood and guts terrorist attacks.
Either way, your theory about my theory fails.
Penelope,
Insurgents do not have the same mentality as high school students. High school students don’t have scorched earth and mutually assured destruction policies.
blue,
Such security systems inevitably have massive cost overruns and have been proven financial disasters (US high tech border, Saudi wall, Maginot line). Unless Russian built systems are fundamentaly different (they can and have been hacked), it only serves in the insurgents favor since it takes capital away from the productive economy. An attack that can cause millions of direct damage can cause an additional hundreds of millions in easily defeatable security upgrades (American IED countermeasures). If it’s too dangerous, they go somewhere else, or wait. Unless accurate bullets can cover every 100 meters of corridor, with surrounding area militarized free fire zone, then it might be safe; a costly upkeep. If they are willing to attack police and soldiers, do you think they would risk attacking a static and undefended target with little risk to themselves? If pussy riot can be straddling gazprom valves in broad day light and making videos about it, what can insurgents do?
It is also possible for the Americans to export non-violent blockades of key facilities, much to effect like what has been happening in the US itself (Keystone XL blockades, fracking project blockades, terminals, ports, rail lines etc.) Perhaps instead of encouraging the lost cause of the UAF, the Americans could have had legions of pretty Ukranian girls chaining themselves to rail lines and energy terminal entrances for months, things would have been far worse for Russia. The Americans may still be able to do this with another modified color revolution designed to block any impending BRICS infrastructure development.
Did the French call the Maginot line the hardened underbelly of France?
This is defense in depth, not a line. The only “line” is the national border. The air above is fluid space, the missile defenses and arrays of equipment are mobile. No line.
Aren’t we making to much of the capabilities of the “insurgents”?
If this is ignored, it will be to the Russian’s peril. This is how Crimea was won. “Self defense forces” simply shut off power and water to Ukrop bases, blocked off a few roads, and waited. Infrastructure disabled yet everything still intact. It worked.
It is similar to the maginot line in that anyone except a conventional force can avoid strong points. There are always gaps.
When you attack Russian energy infrastructure, you hurt German capital which so far has grudgingly acquiesced to anti-Russian policies.
If the goal is to weaken Russia and Europe (fuck the eu) then it works all the better.
Russia has a deal, a big deal with China.
EU needs russia more than Russia the EU.
The Afghanistan IS won’t go for armored Tajik border. It will hit Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan instead. Considering huge Uzbek diaspora in Russia, it will create a nasty mess. What do you think?
SCO.
It was created for this threat in Western China and Central Asia.
Now it has India and Pakistan and Russia as major military, anti-terror forces joining.
Soon, Iran.
They know how to deal with the threat.
Anonymous at 5:41 makes good points. However, the vulnerability of “digital” business economies to sabotage involving e.g. Acid attacks on cable junctions means, in my view that what might be good for US backed geese might be a tad better for anti US ganders…If memory serves, attacks on traffic controls in the late 1980s in London may have been productive for a non state actor? Disruption to daily life affecting megalopolises like London has immediate headline grabbing qualities which tightly controlled media cannot ignore.
Yes. It works both ways.
I remember hearing about Soviet athletes that competed in Olympics were active KBG or some equivalent. During their rest days they would map out critical targets within their assigned area. What could be done to the Russians can also easily be done to the Americans, with probably higher rates of success (far more corrupt security appartus).
Russian hardened underbelly: Thanks Saker. Your military-politcal analytical articles are widely read and respected. And greatly appreciated.
re: Russia’s underbelly: This is from 5/19/15 Ft. Russ Russia report: It shows a quick creativity:
“Russia and Iran may engage in barter trade
Russia would supply Iran with wheat, receiving in return fish, cheese, and meat, according to Rosselkhoznadzor which referenced the ongoing negotiations in Teheran. In addition, Iran may become the next member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Russia may supply grain to China
Something similar is in the works between Russia and China. The striking aspect of the deals is that they are aimed at minimizing the use of international currencies (especially dollars) in bilateral trade. These measures are likely being introduced in anticipation of the almost-inevitable US Federal Reserve interest rate increase, which will have the effect of reducing the global dollar supply, and with it global trade in general unless alternative approaches are found. “
“The folks in Washington are now very slowly becoming aware of the magnitude of the threat now faced by the Empire.”
The West may perceive it as a threat, but I see no evidence yet of Russian leaders or other members of EEU/SCO/CSTO behaving in a manner that suggests the EEU/SCO/CSTO is a “threat” to the West. Perhaps a better word would be “resistance”. Resistance does not necessarily threaten. I see the EEU/SCO/CSTO organizations as competitors or alternatives to the West that can benefit all, including the West. The real threat emanates from the West against EEU/SCO/CSTO, and against Russia in particular.
Maybe just a question of wording or interpretation. It’s like the village (Eurasia) in the Seven Samurai movie getting organized to defend itself against the bandits (USA). The defense of the village is a threat to the lifestyle of the bandits.
Seven Samurai features prominently in De Lillo’s “Libra” re JFK …
Interesting report. I think the ZPC/NWO is unlikely to try another georgian style hot war against Russia. Instead, I think their strategy is infiltrating terrorists into Russia’s and China’s neighbours to pick them off. Then go after China and Russia the same way. Both the Russians and Chinese appear to be well aware of these plans and are proactively intercepting them now, before they snowball into a situation like that in Syria.
that’s it…. thank you again!
Putin’s admission that the CIA was ultimately behind Beslan and kin was big, and the Russian press doesn’t hide the links between the Outlaw Empire and ISIL and its ilk, which in turn armors the Russian public. Now Russia has finally closed the bridgehead it provided NATO to its Afghan debacle. It will be interesting to see what the SCO can do with the Afghan problem, since all the regional players will be within that organization. Pakistan, however, I see as the big problem given its inability to shed its links to KSA and Outlaw Empire.
Not many people payed too much attention to the Central Asian scene in the last decade of the past century. The assault of the Mujahedin against Tajikistan, called euphemistically “The Tajik civil war”. The intervention of Russia routed the Mujahedin and helped the accession to power of Emomali Rahmon (the actual President, still!).
On 26 April 1996 the heads of states of Kazakhstan, the People’s Republic of China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan signed the ‘Treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions’ in Shanghai. (“According to political scientist Thomas Ambrosio, one aim was to ensure that liberal democracy could not gain ground in these countries”, which shows that the meaning was perfectly understood by the US immediately). On 24 April 1997, the same countries signed the Treaty on Reduction of Military Forces in Border Regions in a meeting in Moscow.
I remember that the Dushanbe summit in 2000 was reported in Sydney Morning Herald on the fifth or sixth page. At it the members agreed to “oppose intervention in other countries’ internal affairs on the pretexts of ‘humanitarianism’ and ‘protecting human rights;’ and support the efforts of one another in safeguarding the five countries’ national independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and social stability.” Nobody seemed to pay any attention, least of all to give it any importance. Even they were splitting their sides laughing at you if you said that this was the foundation block of Eurasia. I was just asking them whether they ever heard of the Silk Road (I did, but I read History at University!).
And then in 2001, after the admission of Uzbekistan in the Shanghai Five mechanism, all six heads of state signed on 15 June 2001, the Declaration of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. On 6 July 2001, Russia and the PRC, the organisation’s two leading nations, signed the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation.
In June 2002, the heads signed the SCO Charter in Saint Petersburg.
To be remembered that the SCO was specifically founded to interdict the inroads of any destabilizing factors in Central Asia and disruptions of the Silk Road. Brzezinski must be jaundiced.
Opinion from US, message for Putin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-_M8Qs4pl0
very interesting indeed about a 9/11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTmF6yrDIJw
Afghanistan is having a bumper crop of the flowering poppy plant, often grown for their colorful flower, the species Papaver somniferum is the source of the crude drug Opium, which produces such strong alkaloids such as morphine, codeine and heroin. Now that is an interesting cash crop that keeps alive the thousands of impoverished afghan farmers. Its cultivation had been almost wiped out by the Taliban during their brief control of the Afghan government, back in the nineties..
And it had a home in the SW districts of the country, today its cultivation has been extended North.
Interestingly, the one major client of the main derivative of the poppy flower, heroin, is Russia.
This is a product that has flourished during the last decade, guess why?
A highly profitable crop for the taliban, now, they have learned of its economic importance to keep their struggle alive. Good report in FortRuss
http://fortruss.blogspot.com.ar/2015/03/nemtsov-in-caucasian-knot-chechens.html
Drugs are a source of control for the hegemon, remember the Chinese Opium wars.
They are not giving them up, it is a rich source of financing for all sorts of Black Ops, and it does provide a financial cushion for the higher ups, guess who? Just have to wonder why no one is fighting a Drug War, in the West, but the burden of fighting the drug wars is left on the transit countries, occasionaly on a producing country. Why are the kingpins never touched? Because they are the Who is Who.
The soft underbelly still is there, corruption is not only a way tro label a government and make it a pariah, but also the excuse to liberate countries from their governments. In tribal states such as the Stan’s, it is easy to divide and conquer, just bribe the tribal chieftain that has been offended by any government official. You don’t have to invade a country to destabilize it, witness Macedonia today.
The grand plans of the Silk Road, that are a fundamental basis for Eurasian integration, can easily be curtailed with any petty dispute in any of these countries.
It is not so clear cut. Why do the drugs reach Russia? a Blindage cannot have just a military purpose if you want to protect a population.
Corruption, bribes, graft, the money is in the traffic of drugs, in getting from Point A to point Z. There are that many opportunities for stopping the trade, and just as many opportunities for someone to profit.
As long as there is no control over Afghanistan, there is no control of that “underbelly”.
Who really controls Afghanistan today?
Social disatisfaction, oligarchs, human rights, corruption, all of those are perfect excuse for the hegemon to justify intervention in any space they please, where they would continue to slowly bleed the troublesome countries of China, they have their own muslim problem, and Russia, and why not Iran and India and Pakistan while you are at it.
Or any other unfortunate country that displeases them, Macedonia of late.
Hybrid wars, it doesn’t take much to create a Color Revolution.
Just the good intentions of the Empire of Chaos and Ilusions.
It suits “Western” elites to have their own “useless eaters” self medicate to destruction via consumption of licit and illicit substances. If they do not give a flying one about their own populaces, they are unlikely to be that bothered about others.
Interesting video related to this zone of the world
US embassy in kirgistan receives 150 ton cargo of diplomatic mail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0LrOmO-6iE
What will happen after this?
http://rt.com/news/259809-russia-stops-nato-afghanistan-cargo/?amp;amp
NATO lost the Manas airbase in Kirgistan, or was kicked out, how do they feel about all of this?
Another interesting piece of news:
http://www.worldbulletin.net/news/158930/kyrgyzstan-joins-eurasian-economic-union
Turkey wants a free trade agreement with the EEU. VietNam and China continue negotiations on
creating a free trade zone with the Union, India continues negotiations with the EEU.
From the Caucasus through Western China, it is all organic, one body.
Good read, informative.
and the bricks of the US hegemon continue to tumble, I think they are getting a bit shell shocked and don’t know where to look next. They have created their own ultimate distraction in the middle east and everyone else is taking the chance to free themselves and take a path to a better future
Looks like Ruskis are ready to sell DNR & LNR to Gringos for something.
They want them to be part of UkiReich. Politics are without morals even if it comes to own people.
Another opinion that gives a broad picture of the Afghan situation, and its implications in the Russian Soft Underbelly. Use Yandex browser, it will take care of translation automatically.
http://www.dw.de/боевики-на-севере-афганистана-что-ждет-центральную-азию/a-18456449
Ukraine is close to financial bankruptcy. It has started a legal process deferring payments. This is why US/EU interest is waning – a Nazified bankrupt mess will be left on Russia’s western border – now concentrating on Macedonia to block Turk Stream. The apparent change of US status expressed by Kerry probably reflects US passing of this poisoned chalice to Russia. Assets that can be sold off quickly will end be sold off up in the hands of western interests.
This also may be an opportunity for Novorossia to consolidate its territory. Ukrainians won’t receive pay pensions etc from bankrupt Ukraine, so a fairly obvious solution would be for normal Ukrainians to consolidate with Novorossia leaving the Nazified Galicia (which has expressed separatist intent) as Europe’s problem.
Excellent analysis. Wonderful to read something that actually makes sense. I salute you!
Thanks, Saker, for a well-stated description of this situation! It made me much more aware
of what’s going on there.