Putin’s Syrian withdrawal announcement: neither a full Russian withdrawal nor victory in Syria
by Alexander Mercouris (cross-posted with The Duran by special agreement with the author)
At a time when President Putin is undertaking a tour of the Middle East it would have been politically speaking extremely unwise for him not to have made a stop-over to meet the Russian troops at the Khmeimim air base whom Putin himself sent to Syria.
A failure to do so might have conveyed the impression that Putin takes these troops for granted, an impression which Putin is far too good a politician to want to give.
No Soviet leader – not Brezhnev or Gorbachev – ever visited the Soviet troops sent by the USSR to Afghanistan in the 1980s.
That however was at a time when the USSR did not have competitive elections. With Russia due to hold Presidential elections in March Putin cannot afford to appear as indifferent to the Russian troops in Syria as the Soviet leaders were towards the Soviet troops they had sent to Afghanistan.
Doing so would make a very bad impression, not just amongst the troops themselves but also across the whole Russian military and with the troops’ families.
With Russia’s military – including Russia’s military families – constituting one of Putin’s strongest electoral constituencies, needlessly annoying them is not a mistake Putin is going to make just three months before he stands for re-election as Russia’s President.
That this was the reason for Putin’s visit to Khmeimim air base and for his making his withdrawal announcement is shown by what he said to the troops when he was there.
In order to show this I will reproduce these comments here in full as the Kremlin’s website reports them
The most important thing for a military person – and we are very much aware of this – is the defence of our Fatherland, our people. This is not just the purpose of military service, but also the purpose of life for those who have devoted themselves to serving their people.
At the same time, a soldier is truly tested for loyalty to the Fatherland in a military operation fraught with huge risks to life and health. Here, in Syria, far from home, you are doing exactly that – you are protecting our country.
By helping the people of Syria to maintain their statehood, to fight off attacks by terrorists, you have inflicted a devastating blow to those who have directly, brazenly and openly threatened our country.
We will never forget the sacrifices and losses incurred in the struggle against terrorism both here in Syria and in Russia. However, it will not make us fold our hands and retreat. This is not in our peoples’ nature.
On the contrary, this memory will continue to motivate us to eradicate this absolute evil – terrorism – whatever face it hides behind.
Yes, the threat of terrorism around the world is still very high. However, the task of combating the armed groups here in Syria, the goal that needed to be addressed with the help of the large-scale use of the armed forces, has been largely resolved – and brilliantly resolved. Congratulations!
Our Armed Forces and our defence contractors have shown the growing power of the Russian Army and Navy, and the high combat capability of the various military units.
Pilots, sailors, members of special forces, reconnaissance, troop-control and logistic support units, military police, medical personnel, field engineers and advisers working in the battle units of the Syrian Army have displayed the best qualities of Russian soldiers, such as courage, heroism, combat cohesion, determination, as well as excellent training and professionalism.
The Homeland is proud of you. I am convinced that you will always faithfully serve the Fatherland, defend and uphold our national interests, our country and its people.
Syria has been preserved as a sovereign and independent state. Refugees are returning to their homes. Favourable conditions have been created for a political settlement under the UN. The Russian Centre for the reconciliation of opposing sides in Syria continues to operate in line with international agreements.
The two bases, in Tartous and Khmeimim, will continue to operate on a permanent basis. If the terrorists raise their heads again, we will deal unprecedented strikes unlike anything they have seen.
In just over two years, the Russian Armed Forces and the Syrian Army have defeated the most combat-ready group of international terrorists. In this connection, I have decided to redeploy most of the Russian military contingent from the Syrian Arab Republic to Russia.
You are returning victorious to your homes, your families, parents, wives, children and friends.
I hereby order the Defence Minister and the General Chief of Staff to start redeploying units of the Russian army group to their permanent bases.
The Homeland is waiting for you, friends. Godspeed! Thank you for your service.
The key point is that Russia’s deployment to Syria was a controversial step in Russia, including amongst Russia’s military.
As The Saker for one has repeatedly and correctly pointed out the Russian military unlike the US military is not structured to intervene constantly abroad but is overwhelmingly focused on a single mission, which is the defence of the Russian homeland ie. of Russia itself.
The Saker summed it up perfectly with these words written in an article which can be found here
The legal purpose of the Russian Armed Forces.
The Federal Law N61-F3 “On Defense”, Section IV, Article 10, Para 2 clearly states that the mission of the Russian Armed Forces is to
“repel aggression against the Russian Federation, the armed defence of the integrity and inviolability of the territory of the Russian Federation, and to carry out tasks in accordance with international treaties of the Russian Federation“.
That’s it. Defend the territory of Russia or to carry out tasks in accordance to ratified treaties. These are the sole functions of the Russian Armed Forces.
The Russian Constitution, Chapter IV, Article 80, Para 2 clearly states that
“The President of the Russian Federation shall be guarantor of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, of the rights and freedoms of man and citizen. According to the rules fixed by the Constitution of the Russian Federation, he shall adopt measures to protect the sovereignty of the Russian Federation, its independence and state integrity, ensure coordinated functioning and interaction of all the bodies of state power“.
Now, for an American used to having, on average, about one new war every year, this might seem mind boggling, but the Russian Federation has absolutely no desire to become an “anti-USA” and get involved in constant military operations abroad. Not only that, but the laws of the Russian Federation specifically forbid this.
Russia is not the world’s policeman, she does not have a network of 700-1000 bases worldwide (depending on your definition of ‘base’) but an army specifically designed to operate within 1000km or less from the Russian border and the President does not have the legal mandate to use the Russian armed forces to solve foreign crises.
Deployment of Russian troops relatively far from the Russian homeland to a place like Syria is for the Russian military a considerable departure from its normal role, and is something which has to be explained carefully if it is to attract support.
Putin has succeeded in doing this because he has explained carefully to the Russian military and to the Russian people that this deployment is actually in defence of Russia itself, since the Jihadist terrorist groups Russia is fighting in Syria are a threat to Russia.
The Russians have had to fight a bitter war against Jihadism on their own territory in the northern Caucasus during the 1990s and the 2000s, and have also suffered sustained Jihadi terrorist attacks on their main cities on a scale that no Western country – not even the US – has experienced.
No Russian wants to go through that again, so it was not difficult to persuade most Russians that preventing the establishment of a Jihadi enclave in Syria which might become a springboard for a Jihadist terrorist offensive against Russia was for Russia an urgent security interest.
Maybe the intervention in Syria also serves other purposes, though I personally doubt it. However it is important to stress that this was the reason Putin gave to justify the intervention to the Russian military and to the Russian people, and why they agreed to support it.
However though most Russians – including critically the great majority of Russians serving in the military – have understood and accepted the need for the Syrian intervention and have supported it, it most definitely is not a war which the Russian people have enthusiastically embraced, and which they wish to see perpetuated indefinitely.
A comparison of Russian attitudes towards the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria illustrates the point.
Whilst there is no shortage of men in Russia who are willing to go and fight as volunteers to protect the Russian speaking people of the Donbass – regarded by all Russians as their kith and kin – there has been no similar flood of volunteers signing up to fight the Jihadis in Syria.
On the contrary most Russians – including those who serve in the military – want to see the war in Syria ended as soon as possible, and the troops once their mission is successfully accomplished quickly brought home.
Putin understands this completely, and this explains many of the things he said in his address to the troops at Khmeimim air base.
Thus the address begins with an acknowledgement that for Russian soldiers
…..the most important thing….is the defence of our fatherland, our people.
(bold italics added)
Compare those words with The Saker’s words quoted above.
The address then went on to repeat that this is a war carried out in defence of Russia
By helping the people of Syria to maintain their statehood, to fight off attacks by terrorists, you have inflicted a devastating blow to those who have directly, brazenly and openly threatened our country.
(bold italics added)
Note that flowery language of the sort beloved by US or Western leaders about defending things such as ‘values’ and ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’ appear nowhere in Putin’s address. Not only does Putin have no time for such language but the Russian troops he was addressing have no time for it either.
Having then congratulated the troops on their victory Putin then went on to fulfil what the troops and their families consider to be the explicit promise which was made to them when they were sent to Syria: that at the earliest possible opportunity they would be brought home
You are returning victorious to your homes, your families, parents, wives, children and friends.
I hereby order the Defence Minister and the General Chief of Staff to start redeploying units of the Russian army group to their permanent bases.
The Homeland is waiting for you, friends. Godspeed! Thank you for your service.
(bold italics added)
Given that the war in Syria is now visibly winding down, politically speaking it would have been risky for Putin on the eve of an election to have done otherwise.
If all this explains the reasons for Putin’s visit to Khmeimim air base and his withdrawal announcement, it is nonetheless in no sense the end of the affair.
The war in Syria is not over and it is not won. Though ISIS’s back has been broken, it is still a force under arms in rural Deir Ezzor where it has recently taken the offensive against the US’s Kurdish allies.
In addition hundreds of ISIS fighters are still roaming free in the desert regions of central Syria even if they no longer control any important towns there. These bands of fighters still pose a significant security threat, and will continue to do so for some time.
Further west Syria’s Idlib province remains under Jihadi control.
Worse still, there is now growing evidence that ISIS is trying to redeploy as many of its fighters as it can from central and eastern Syria to Idlib province.
With the Syrian military as always heavily over-stretched and still not in full control of much of the countryside it seems that this apparently planned redeployment of ISIS fighters from central and eastern Syria to Idlib province is not only taking place, but that it is actually meeting with some success.
Recently there have been reports of bitter fighting in Idlib province between Al-Qaeda – previously in undisputed control of the province – and the ISIS fighters who are being redeployed there from central and eastern Syria. Moreover it seems that with Al-Qaeda severely weakened because of the massive losses it suffered last year in the Great Battle of Aleppo, it is ISIS which is gaining the upper hand in this fighting.
Whilst it is probably still alarmist to say that ISIS’s caliphate which has been driven out of Raqqa, central Syria and Deir Ezzor is now in the process of reconstituting itself in Idlib, the possibility that something like that might happen is certainly there, and the Russians cannot be unaware of it.
Elsewhere there are still significant pockets of Jihadi resistance in south western Syria, especially in the Golan Heights and near Damascus, whilst the Syrian government still faces a serious problem with the US-backed Kurds who currently control around a fifth of Syria’s territory in the north.
Last but not least there are still thousands of US troops in Syria, uninvited and potentially dangerous, with no one outside the Pentagon and CENTCOM knowing exactly how many of them there are.
Though victory in Syria is therefore now in sight, it is premature to declare it, as Putin did in his comments to the troops in Khmeimim air base.
As it happens Putin’s comments show that he knows this perfectly well. How else to explain comments like this?
We will never forget the sacrifices and losses incurred in the struggle against terrorism both here in Syria and in Russia. However, it will not make us fold our hands and retreat. This is not in our peoples’ nature.
On the contrary, this memory will continue to motivate us to eradicate this absolute evil – terrorism – whatever face it hides behind…..
The two bases, in Tartous and Khmeimim, will continue to operate on a permanent basis. If the terrorists raise their heads again, we will deal unprecedented strikes unlike anything they have seen.
(bold italics added)
Those familiar with the history of the Syrian war know that we have been here before.
In March 2016, shortly after the Russians negotiated a cessation of hostilities agreement in Syria with the US, Putin announced a very similar draw down of Russian troops from Syria.
In the event within weeks it had become clear that the cessation of hostilities agreement with the US was a dead letter. After a short break Jihadi attacks on Syrian military positions resumed, and the Russians were obliged to reverse their drawn down and escalate again their air campaign. The Great Battle of Aleppo and the struggle against ISIS in Palmyra, central Syria and Deir Ezzor followed.
With both Al-Qaeda and ISIS routed conditions for a drawn down are more favourable this time. However Putin’s comments show that the Russians stand ready to reverse the drawn down if the need arises, just as they did before.
As for peace in Syria, that will only be achieved when fighting in Syria finally stops, with all the Jihadis there having been either killed or forced to lay down their arms, and with all of Syria’s territory which was previously under Jihadi or Kurdish control once more returned to the control of the Syrian government in Damascus.
Only then will it be possible to declare victory in Syria.
My take is that it is because they wanted to avoid conflict with American forces which seem to look for a reason to attack Russians
Not sure about that.
https://www.rt.com/politics/412950-putin-drafts-bill-seeking-expansion/
Pres. Putin has submitted today a bill for the expansion of the Tartus navy base in Syria. So Russia is going nowhere:
“…..agreement to transform the Tartus navy refueling facility in Syria into a fully-fledged navy base, capable of harboring nuclear-powered ships. The development would be for a term of 49 years and would grant the Russian Navy access to the territorial waters and to various ports of the Syrian Arab Republic. The revamped Tartus navy base would be able to accept up to 11 ships at once, including nuclear-powered vessels……”
of course Putin know everything even that ISIL is stil “alive” and he gave to americans time limited offer.
and what the poor Americans are now without the Russians … they will have to really destroy the ISIL if they want the trust of the allies. if they do not exterminate them, and they will probably not, because they did not destroy them long before, they will lose support from all from the east coast of the Euphrates. not to mention that they already have powerful enemies in Syria. I’m just curious how Americans will convince ISIL that they must be dead for the Kurds. Putin promised if ISIL raise head again russians will be back. so, americans have to destroy own “assets”.
after six years of agression USA is on the begining where it started in Syria. but with much different “landscape”.
not much smart those ‘mjuricans.
I read your comment with great interest. I am not are I understand what can happen now. It seemed to me that the US, back when they were reportedly fighting against ISIS but seemed unable to make any headway, were shown to be faking their battle against ISIS by Russia, whose planes flew over and destroyed the convoys of oil trucks from Syria to Turkey. Erdogan’s son (son-in-law?) was selling the oil to the Israelis. The war continued with the US sort of film-flammng around, hindering the efforts of the SAA and, although talking the talk, not doing much a walk. Then came the SDF whom we know are the Kurds. The US aligned with them and now they are all sitting in northwest Syria among the oil fields, still saying they are fighting against ISIS and still not doing much fighting but rather transporting some and letting other ISIS fighters leave any contested areas. So now, what do you see as the next scenario? I cannot imagine what the US will say or do, except that I know the US will say or do anything so they do not have to leave Syria.
@ lizzie dw
I follow this things superficially, and I make many mistake by the way ;-). i am not doing analysis, but, as I know, oilfields on east are in poor condition and need great investments to become profitable. Turkey, Iraq and Iran will not let the oil through without the permission of Damask. Americans now just trying to repair damage they made. they are trying to keep the Iran influence under control. they spoiled the regional strategic balance trying to bring down Assad government and now with that six year blunder harmed the interests/security of Israel because there are now very real and powerful enemies near their environment. it seems to me that since the Americans have told the Russians that they are ‘afraid’ they will have to shot their planes, the Russians cease playing chess and choose a different game that will not appeal to Americans, americans will not get the honorable exit from Syria. but they don’t know it yet. from now things are different. it is almost impossible to predict details because military logic is different from civilian/government policy and we know that US army or MIC is in charge over globe. Mr. Putin said if they have to return they will attack with force not seen so far in Syria. or something like that. i think that is one of the most important sentence he said. this russian involvement in Syria was not a real war for them. they had limited goal with very limited forces involved to save Syria as a functioning state and to show to world that they are alive and by the way tested some military hardware. this was not real war that russians can make.
What’s the American have forgotten after decades of proxy war is that the proxy wouldn’t really move into the frying pans on it’s own unless it’s objective within it’s interest. Of course they could be tricked into it however a tricks/lie are so effective only to people that don’t hold scepticism to their motive. Which is their credibility have been exhausted at least on the region (Syria, Iraq, and Turkey for supporting Kurdish separatists as well as the whole arab people for recognizing the Jerusalem affair) relying on for much of their operation (or shady operation to be precise).
My prediction would be that the wall would cave in for much of their operations and objective in Syria and their support whittled from the rest of the gulf country.
Why the Russian intervention in Syria may proved to be a well-set Western trap
http://bit.ly/1OyUdLv
Moderator Note: Hmmm, this link is to an article that is over 2 years old (October 2015)
If it was a trap, it backfired on the West horribly.
Syrian army is now a legitimate force to be reckoned with. Hezbollah jumped from a guerrilla style unit to a full fledged military force with combined arms experience with regular armies (Syria, Iran, Russia). Stronger air defenses in Syria than ever before. Turkey turned from NATO ally into a total wildcard. All while Assad remains in power.
All of the above a nightmare for Israel.
My armchair theory is the law of diminishing returns at work.
Foreign Head-chopping Scum Mercenary forces withdrawing and rotating to other AO’s. If they do that it is harder to strike them in other regions where you do not have as many resources deployed to counter them. Announce a draw down in forces to keep them in the country (or draw more in) where it is easiest to kill them. Maybe in takes weeks to get mercenaries in and out of Syria and Russia can ramp up or down in days….
Thanks for a nice analysis, mr. Mercouris.
“With Russia due to hold Presidential elections in March Putin cannot afford to appear as indifferent to the Russian troops in Syria as the Soviet leaders were towards the Soviet troops they had sent to Afghanistan.”
I’m not sure whether that’s the only imperative. Remember Putin standing in pouring rain during the memorial ceremony for the great patriotic war? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xb7wRp5x-Ug
The ‘message’ I got from this (I’m not Russian), was ‘when you soldiers are to stand in the rain without an umbrella, I’ll do that too.’ Putin understands these fine details.
Considering the (partial) withdrawal from Syria I have mixed thoughts. The former time that didn’t work out so well. But I wouldn’t count out that he has set a trap.
One of the reasons Russian military don’t volunteer to go to Syria as in Donbass is there are PMCs like Wagner and Turan that hire these volunteers.
So, men stay in the RF military and go as contractors to MOD or go as private contractors with Wagner and Turan.
Yes, it’s not as attractive or emotional as is Donbass.
However, the Russia ethos is now expanding to embrace the Fatherland’s “reach” all over Eurasia, the Middle East, the Asian-Pacific and the Arctic. It’s early, but self-consciousness related to a role beyond Russian’s immediate border and near abroad is expanding. Russians travel. Russians vacation in distant places, further and further from home. And security in those locales is now a distinct importance.
Provinciality is still extant in Russian societal values. But everything has changed since 2014. And the Russian view of itself is changing also. The bear is roaming in wider and wider spheres of influence.
My understanding is that the private contractor firms in Syria are not Russian. They are mostly registered in Hong Kong etc, sure, there are russian nationals employed by them, but not to act on behalf of or even in the interests of the Russian federation. Quite the opposite in fact.
Many of them are employed to guard the millitants’ oil fields and serve western interests.
RR– How very interesting. Can you refer me to any link about this, or even generally about mercenary aspects of the Russian army? I found it baffling that the US and then the EU removed their Patriot missiles from the Turkish border just in time to allow the Russians to enter the war.
Maybe Putin is smart enough to think that the Terrorists will take care of the US troops that are illegally in Syria now that Trump has said that they will move the US embassy to their holy site in Jerusalem. This has annoyed the followers of Islam and they may make the US pay for their decision to do this. My opinion only.
Russian TV is full of views of the troops coming home with happy crowds welcoming their sons and daughters, husbands and wives, loved ones back to the family fold. I don’t think huge numbers have returned yet but then it’s only the first hours of the draw down. Obviously this reduction in forces in Syria is not a spur of the moment event, deployments and reductions take the same planning and logistics to accomplish, but the troops are obviously happy to be coming home and the large crowds welcoming them have the same mood.
I disagree with some of the statements and conclusions of the article, I speak to a fair number of the troops rotating in and out of the AO of Syria and not a one has every expressed to me, either in private or public, any trepidation about serving in Syria, either boots on the ground or support based hundreds of kilometers away. They trust their senior command and at least the specialists I am familiar with trust their unit CO’s and their Sarjanti and that speaks reams about how things have changed in the last 15 years in Mother’s armed forces.
It remains to be seen how long this draw down lasts but we all hope it will be permanent and our warriors won’t have to go back and set things right again. If things go bad in Syria, then we’ll send our men off with a ‘God speed’ again and yet again welcome them home when they return.
To specifically address the author’s statement of no shortage of volunteers willing to go to Novorossiya to defend their kith and kin whilst the same is not true of the conflict in Syria, that is comparing apples to tomatoes. The volunteers going to Novorossiya are veterans almost to a man who have served their time in RuAF and are trained and large numbers are blooded in their previous service. To expect a flood of volunteers to rally to the colours for the fight in Syria is silly, it takes many months to train a recruit before he is ready to deploy to a unit and large numbers of new soldiers are simply not needed with the small numbers of troops deployed to Syria plus the Russian units deployed to Syria who have actually fought are mostly the specialists.
To join any specialist unit takes up to a year of training before one is ready to deploy although most will get their beret after I think six months of intensive training. At that time they are not ready to deploy, they have to be assigned to a unit and train extensively with that unit, hence the year lead time. Each Rota is individual and each Rota right down to sections has in general their own way of doing things and their own language and slang. The training actually never ends, it is ongoing through the entire career of the specialists and soldiers.
On the whole I have found the soldiers to be patriotic but not to a fault, well trained and psychologically well prepared for their deployment to the combat zone. On their return they in general don’t dwell on what they did or did not do, they get on with life and I don’t know of any who have left their units after being rotated out and trust me, lots of units have rotated in and out of that AO from this AO. I have talked a bit to a few of them, those who have sought me out for discussions. Being foreign but also very familiar with Russian Culture allows me to speak to them from the same level and we have gotten along rather well.
All in all I am impressed with the men who have deployed to Syria and I, and they, have no qualms about them returning if needs be.
Auslander
Author
Never The Last One http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A Deep Look In To Russia, Her Culture And Her Armed Forces
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
As always, thanks for your insights!
Auslander,
When can we expect your new book?
I need a Xmas present for my grandfather (and myself!) and nothing would suit better :)
Cheers,
Student
Student,
The Christmas present will be a little late for which I apologize. I expect to have the new tome published in mid to late January, possibly earlier depending on my editing process.
Auslander
Thanks for this – I didn’t like the thrust of article – that it’s all about the election.
Syria is too important for such cynical calculations.
PS I would be interested in what you and the people around you think about what is happening in Ukraine.
Auslander, how can I get a copy without A m az on?
Latino,
It is possible. Look at Amazon and open either book. You will understand how to contact me from there.
Auslander
You assume Putin learned nothing from the war in Syria and simply extrapolate the 2016 retreat into 2017… Putin and his administration learned a great deal the last couple of years. Putin is a Judo master, 2016 was just pushing to feel where the enemy wants to go. 2017 He lets the enemy go, with a pat on his back making him fall over.
Putin did not go to Syria to meet the troops because of the impending election. This is a very cynical western view. He went there despite the obvious dangers, because he cares -that is what he always does. He went to Chechnya despite the grave security concerns, as a true leader. There was no election in site then.
Totally agree. I like the reminders inherent in this piece by Mercouris, but it’s a shame he wasn’t able to include the clear likelihood that Putin was glad to visit Syria to see his soldiers, to meet Assad again, and to send a vast and profound message to the US, in the continued protection of his country, and the furtherance of world peace. Putin is the man who brought true heart back into international politics.
I said these things elsewhere that this article appeared so didn’t write them here. But wanted to agree with your comment, and say thanks.
`Putin did not go to Syria to meet the troops because of the impending election. This is a very cynical western view ”
Yes I also felt very uncomfortable reading this strange ‘if not” introduction… Witch in final give the feeling that the author unconsciously want to stress a political calcul of Putin.
Typically western twisted view where all is much more direct, simple.. Russian :)
Partially agree. Christmas and elections are coming. He’s a very brilliant Commander in Chief (I say so because Russia is in reality in a perpetual low- intensity war with the West since the ’90) and really cares about his people but he’s also a very sly Politician. Personally I don’t like some aspects of his political figure mostly caused by the Paternalistic attitude he has when peoples around him are searching help or a sort of favor. Often my impression is that The political-oligarchic apparatus is still deeply corrupt and familistic and the normal folks are looking up to a superior entity to solve all their problems. I look all the Putin’s q&a, panels,… since years but I’m still impressed by one Crimean volunteer asking for nothing. She represent for me the pure uncorrupted Russian soul. Look at 27’25” and 44’21” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2c7M_QJeG4
I sort of wonder if Idlib is the key here.Should Turkey and Iran co-ordinate and work together a lot of Kurdish flip-floppery will cease and once Idlib is fully suppressed Israel may see US troops trapped on the Coast and move in force to seize Damascus thus provoking a Hezbollah/Iranian/Turkish strike on Jerusalem before Damascus is attempted to be nuked.
Once Jerusalem is no longer out of UN’s potential mandate then the United Nations could be handed Jerusalem and administer it as a fully-internationalised city.
It seems that US Christian-Zionist/Kushner/SY/Netanyahu/Yachad/etc characters will have to eat crow.
@Ian: “Israel may …. move in force to seize Damascus”
Dream on. The IDF couldn’t even seize Beirut.
In my opinion, it is true that the partial withdrawal of the Russian military force deployed in Syria should be read as a (political) tactical movement, both in internal (Russian elections) and external (Syrian peace talks) terms.
The time for *real* peace talks is arriving. And the Russians are right: There is a strong need for all (not jihadists) factions in Syria to compromise and to reach an agreement that is satisfactory for all parties involved.
In terms of political settlement the elephant in the room is… what will the Syrian Kurds do? With whom are they going to compromise, in the long term? With the “non-agreement capable” Americans? (just kidding).
As just another armchair analyst I lack access to most of the relevant information on the subject, but I am still pretty sure that, below the radar, many conversations and negotiations are taking place these weeks.
Consider, for example, the role played by Major General Qasem Soleimani in the rapid (and relatively non-violent) takeover of Kirkuk and its oil fields by the Iraqi Army and the PMU. He allegedly reached a compromise with the PUK after Talibani’s funeral, urging them to withdraw from Kirkuk, saying that in exchange Tehran would protect their interests. And it worked. Quickly.
Now, think about the last weeks news headlines related to Soleimani: his presence in Deir Ezzor and Al Bukamal, the epistolary “saga” with CIA’s Pompeo through Russian channels (leave Syria or else!; remember Beirut’83!, etc). I guess that the Americans soldier deployed in SDF-held territory have probably started to “green-zoning” themselves, just in case the situation turns a bit, you know, “asymmetrical”.
Again, I am just guessing, but it is my understanding that the Syrian YPG are closer, politically speaking, to the Talabani’s PUK than to the Barzani’s KDP. They will better consider compromising / making a fair deal with the Russian-Syrian-Iranian Alliance (under the close look of “neighbors” Turkey & Iraq). Some 2,000 “green-zoned” US soldiers are not going to be of much help for anything.
We will see.
With defeat of the israeloamerican daesh campaign, the zionazis have now switched over to a new strategy. The israelis having their trump bum toy declare their Jerusalem nonsense confirms the direction this zionazi strategy will take. The Russians have their own post daesh strategy and fully anticipated the zionazi moves (who could not, given all the zionazi telegraphing of these). The expected Russian military forces drawdown announcement about Syria has everybody’s attention, yet this was a minor aspect of Putin’s trip. The visits to Egypt and Turkey are the major news here.
The Hegemon ramping up forces and confronting Russia more aggressively in Syria: result, as it would appear – Russia hastily declares victory and leaves, tail between legs.
Assad smiles weakly as he assesses his situation. He does not control his nation’s borders. He does not control his nation’s primary resources. Foreign powers have taken over chunks of the south and north and east, where they continue to use allied proxies to probe deeper into Syria, claws out. Assad has no control over the skies of Syria. He knows that he and his people are doomed. He knows that his country is nothing more than a stepping stone for the Hegemon on the war path to Iran and Russia, yet both those countries came to his aid too little too late.
And now Russia is leaving.
The pain has just begun for Syria, it seems. I pray to be proven wrong, totally wrong.
@paul: ” I pray to be proven wrong, totally wrong”.
Be careful what one prays for, the gods sometimes grant one’s prayer.
Someone thinks Russia is replacing the US in the ME:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSLldId2Ifw
Good thoughts till he started talking about Russia and Syria and Turkey etc. He must stick to philosophy, geopolitics is The Saker’s vinyard not his.
I agree that Russia has met its objective to break the back-bone of ISIS. It was also a major opportunity to test the readiness of its army.
I understand also that staying in Syria is a risk of being confronted to a war with Israel and or the US. So far Russia has been able to avoid such situation but it seems that both Israel and the US, with KSA, want still to get rid of Assad and destroy the Hezbollah and Iran. So Putin may not be willing to test his luck and he is right from a Russian point of view.
So today Syria, the Hezbollah and Iran will have to face alone potential wars with Israel, the US and KSA. The unknown is Turkey. I think that Turkey will remain neutral but with Erdogan, you may have a surprise.
Syria must be focused on broader perspective. As on road of decline of US global empire. 3-4 years from now on that empire has gone to trash.
look out for those allegedly un-named pentagon officials-probably more dangerous
“Russia is expanding its nuclear arsenal to 8,000 warheads by 2026 and modernising its underground bunkers in preparation for war, Pentagon officials reveal
Russia is allegedly expanding its arsenal of nuclear warheads
Kremlin aim for 8,000 warheads by 2026, say unnamed Pentagon officials
Current nuclear treaty between the U.S. and Russia limits warheads to 1,500
By Sara Malm For Mailonline
PUBLISHED: 12:18, 13 December 2017 | UPDATED: 13:18, 13 December 2017
Russia is looking to expand its nuclear forces to comprise a total of 8,000 warheads by 2026, a U.S. news website reports.
President Vladimir Putin is ‘aggressively building up’ Russia’s nuclear arsenal in the coming years, and is also building underground bunkers, according to unnamed Pentagon officials.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5174969/Russia-expanding-nuclear-arsenal-8-000-warheads-2026.html#ixzz519M2JX8P
Tomorrow: Record amount of journalists attending Putin’s live, annual Q&A
December 13, 2017 – FRN –
Vesti- translated by Inessa Sinchougova
“A day remains until the annual press conference of the Russian president. The desire to ask questions has been expressed by a record number of journalists. A total of 1,640 representatives of Russian and foreign media were accredited (last year there were about 1,500).
As the official representative of the Kremlin said, the head of state is already preparing. Peskov noted that there is a complete update of information in all sectors – from the economy to social life.
The press conference will begin at noon on Thursday, December 14. Participants will be traditionally gathered at the International Trade Center on Krasnaya Presnya. The TV channel “Russia 1” and “Russia 24″, Channel One, OTR, Mayak radio and Radio Rossiya, Vesti FM radio station will broadcast the press conference .”
“Moscow does not support Ankara’s rhetoric on Jerusalem.” But of course. They cannot be against their tribesmen. They protect their evils in all ways, openly as with this announcement or hidden. Putin took side of the Jewish Satan when they killed Palestinians in Gaza by thousand years ago.He is one of them and have blood of innocent on husband’s like McCain.
Rubbish and quackery. Putin was, I believe, not even President at the time. But no matter who was, he would have been preoccupied with dragging Russia out of its Near Death Experience in the Intensive Care Unit of the Anglo-Zionist West Humanitarian Hospital of Democracy.
Equating Putin to McCain is a bit like equating a sane and knowledgeable human being, to you.
“The key point is that Russia’s deployment to Syria was a controversial step in Russia, including amongst Russia’s military.”
If Russian military did not understand the importance of Syria to Russian security then I would worry for them. Fall of Syria would be a huge security risk for Russia as the A-Z Empire would be going into overdrive in such a situation. The first attack would be economic with building of pipelines going to the heart of Europe from the Middle East.
Yugoslavia/Serbia was a big hit as was Libya.
Let’s not forget that there are western claims of Syria as Russian operation to eliminate Saudis/Qataris gas sold for European market. Indeed we should talk more about the fact that Russia wanted to secure its economic interests in European market which means selling more and more gas than now (=value of over € 60 billion).
That’s the western claim, not mine. So do you really believe that Iranians and Syrians want to be vassals of Russia? Never. There were several reasons why Putin sent those troops to Syria and securing Syria was the most important. Which means it was actually Putin blocking US/NATO.
I can imagine: Russians go away not to watch Iranians and Shia beating Americans.
I sure hope that Mr. Putin is making it very clear to the Russian people – particularly the military – that the one and only “terrorism” in the world today is zionist/US global hegemony. They want the resources on the other side of the globe and Russia stands in the way. It all began with their “occupation” of Iran in 1953. The Iranian people stopped it (and have never been forgiven). It’s all an attempt to restart the old imperial “Great Game”.
Interesting that Russian TV also heavilly stresses the same topics, of protecting Russia and civilization from terrorism, enemy defeat, “it was harder than expected so it took longer than expected, but now as the mission is complete we immediately go home”