Poroshenko’s inauguration speech has sent a message to Novorossiia and Russia:
- No federalization
- No state status for the Russian language
- No recognition of the Novorossian political leadership
- Full and unconditional surrender of the Novorossian Defense Forces
- Crimea will forever belong to the Ukraine.
He could not have been any clearer: that is basically a declaration of war and an ultimatum. This is also a full endorsement of the “Banderastan project”.
Clearly, the US has prevailed over the hoplessly spineless EU leaders like Merkel or Hollande and the AngloZionists will have their way.
I must leave my computer for the next 12 hours and I cannot write a full analysis of Poroshenko’s decision to fully follow the US line, but I will say that two things appear inevitable now: a Russian military intervention in Novorossia followed by the Cold War v2 the AngloZionists wanted so badly. Up until this moment the European colonies still had a chance to avoid a future which will hurt them much more than it will hurt the US or Russia, but they could not even muster the willpower to protect their own vital interests.
I am disgusted beyond words.
The Saker
Kiev will fall. Then – the EU. Then – the US.
– from Nazi occupied America
Any other reports of mysterious crashes, explosions, derailments in Kiev and points west? Naturally the stupid Moskals would confine their work to SE Ukraine, no?
I think a fitting response should start with economic sanctions on the Oligarchs in Ukraine siding with the Junta. This would of course include Poroshenko’s businesses.
The next move would be to open up the borders to allow for free movement. The covert phase of what I am sure already is happening needs to be ramped up.
The US wants war but I hope Russia does not give them an open war they can use to cut EU-Russia ties. A de-facto No fly zone imposed by the NDF and surgical “humanitarian air strikes” and NDF run elimination of CIA operators on the ground would be the way to go.
Russia should play the Empires game; doublespeak and “covert” in your face tactics. The US cannot fund another war and will eventually lose out if the EU has no obvious reason to cut ties (i.e no Russian ground troops).
Old Sceptic: 07 June, 2014 22:52
” This is shaping up to be the most dangerous time for the human race since 1983 or 1962. “
Agreed. I’ve been studying Putins actual speeches and videos for some while. He’s tough, smart and seems to be pretty much fearless. He’s also well aware that beyond Ukraine lies the possibility of a nuclear exchange that would kill a lot more than 20 million Russians of WWII. But nor do I think either he or the Russian people are going to buckle to PNAC diktats.
Across the Atlantic, in cool air conditioned offices, a long way from the actual brutalities of war the NeoCon scheming continues.
The Russian and Chinese military are comparatively vulnerable now; in two years they will be fairly impregnable. Its called a “window of opportunity”
Would they be crazy enough to think thus?? Indeed -theres a precedent: from Miko Peled A Generals Son:
The two power centers in Israel were the IDF high command and the Cabinet. On June 2, 1967, the two groups met at IDF headquarters.
The military hosts greeted the generally cautious and dovish prime minister, Levi Eshkol, with such a level of belligerence that the meeting was later commonly called “the Generals’ Coup.”
The transcripts of that meeting reveal that the generals made it clear to Eshkol that the Egyptians would need 18 months to two years before they would be ready for a full-scale war, and therefore this was the time for a preemptive strike.
My father told Eshkol: “Nasser is advancing an ill-prepared army because he is counting on the Cabinet being hesitant. Your hesitation is working in his advantage.” s no mention of a threat but rather of an “opportunity” that was there, to be seized.
Within short order, the Cabinet succumbed to the pressure of the army, and the rest, as they say, is history. (trimmed)
Hopefully there will be no replay. But the men who see Russias actions as challenge to their world hegemony are determined to prevail. People who are willing to sacrifice 3000 of their own, as they did on 9/11, are deranged indeed.
I hope you are wrong Mr Sceptic
BOK TAK quoting Demian:
Ukraine should be divided into Federal Novorossia and the Federal Ukraine. Because most of the residents of the West and centre of the former Ukrainian wish the European future, and South and East – see their future with Russia. And this split is based on civilizational, cultural, ethnic, and eventually economic components
Actually, the only support for EU and NATO is Western Ukraine and Kiev. And in fact, outside of Western Ukraine, which wants to join EU by an 84-16 margin, Ukrainians are opposed to EU acession by a 34-66 margin and to NATO by a 22-78 margin. Central/South/East Ukraine is also opposed to IMF austerity by a margin of around 39-61 while Western Ukraine is in favor of IMF austerity by a margin of 79-21.
This is why I said what is needed is a Malorossiya project which would “free” Banderstan to go its own way and let the rest of Ukraine stay in its Eurasian orbit. There couldn’t be a clearer split in public opinion, culture, language, and aspirations than that between West Ukraine and everyone else.
American Kulak 23:31,
Don’t you think they’d pull a whopper of a false flag again? Imo, that’s what happened in Boston; I don’t buy for a minute the Tsarnaev brothers were anything but dupes. And just from the pictures, the official story does not hold up. I don’t know if those Boston residents would fall for that nonsense again — I hope not. But a BIG terr’ist attack — hey, let’s blame Russia! (why not?) — and the rural folk I know and I’ll bet a ton of your Patriot buddies would be signing up in droves and defending the need to watch our communications because the Russkies are so advanced in their cyberwarfare techniques. And anyone saying anything otherwise would, as usual, be called a Commie pinko traitor. Paul Cockshott quoted a piece by someone named Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. speculating on just how good Russia is at all this — and the timing, again, is *most* interesting.
But tell me, bc I really am curious: do you guys really expect to prevail should the National Guard (I presume that’s who they’d use) start pulling this nonsense? How?
“Alexander Dugin’s point, that Europe west of Russia is hopelessly decadent and a mere colony of the US, so that only Russia can save European civilization, is an entirely different matter.”
I do not understand, why it is Russia’s responsibility to save Europe? You just did in world war II, it cost 20 million lives of your citizen. 4 years after war, Nato was formed to contain you. 69 years after war, they have brought the war right to your door stop. Before that, (some one said a day or two ago) Europe tried to conquer you for 800 years. Why in the world you care about how they doing? I understand Russia think they are part of Europe, she is. That is part of reason Russia government tried so hard to appease to the west for so long. But did it work, has it ever bring your people any benefit? Why not take NOVORUSSIA, take care of your own people, sale gas to the rest Europe. Tell them you are welcome for fair trade, if they mess with your security, then they do not have energy security. Then seat back with a bag of pop corn, a glass of beer, enjoy watching them slave under weight of their own debt.
With your rich, and productive land, very talent people, and BRICS to trade with, you will have peace and prosperity that have eluded you for a long time.
Europe will be saved when it want to be saved, not because your think they need to be saved. World War II was a great example. When they are ready, and if you feel like to, you can save them without a drop of your blood, and much less cost, and they will be a lot more appreciate it.
Saker,
the chocolate king shall soon melt once the heat from the east is felt. such a sad thing to see brothers at each other throats just because the slave master have ordered it. the greed of the zionists and thier allies have reached a new high. they instigated wars in Europe, the middle east, Asia and Africa. As long as the people stay impassive, atrocities will continue and the cycle of evil will not break. It’s a shame that only a handful of people do read and understand history. Throughout all of mankind’s history wars were waged under different names but the motives are the same…..a few arrogant individuals want to control humanity’s fate to satisfy their egos. All must be slaves for the egos of the few, after all they are the chosen people. how many more times must we go through the same cycle before humanity wakes up from it’s deep slumber ?
peace be upon the souls of the innocents who lost their lives and may god protect the living.
The Discerner
Nora,
I will save this discussion for another time. Suffice to say when you read websites like WRSA, Guerillamerica, you are seeing sincere people who fear they will have to defend themselves and their communities one day. Even granting a 10 or even 100 to 1 keyboard commando to actual prepper/militia of one or member ratio, I’d say it’s more serious than in the 1990s given the much more dire economic situation than back then during the Clinton years.
“But tell me, bc I really am curious: do you guys really expect to prevail should the National Guard (I presume that’s who they’d use) start pulling this nonsense? How?”
Honestly Nora I do not think a 2nd American Civil War would be fought with jets or advanced weapons beyond armored vehicles. It would be more of a ‘Dirty War’ eg snatch and grabs met with low level insurgency. This is primarily because a real CW2 would only take place after the necessary precondition was met first — a severe economic collapse or catastrophic decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. TPTB may yet prevent that and put a lid on some civil unrest, if for no other reason than that the typical Donbass or even Kievan seems to have far more testicular fortitude than your average couch potato Amur’can.
But to answer your question: what makes you think Guardsmen especially could be relied upon to obey orders they know will be criminal? Riot control yes. Crowd control for which they’re more poorly trained maybe. But I rather think given how broke Kiev is and how broke a fascist central state would be in USSA crackup scenario, things would resemble the fighting in SE Ukraine. Airpower could be deployed, but only sporadically and only with the cheapest systems (no F-22s, and likely no B-52s either) eg drones, A-10s or F-16s, etc.
Last of all I agree with you that Boston was likely a false flag, it has too many telltale signs from the dudes with the black backpacks that looked like the Tsarnaev’s to the shushing up, to the Tsarnaev’s CIA son in law uncle who immediately threw them under the bus for the cameras (so much for presumed innocent from relatives), to general confusion and coverrup surrounding why the NSA didn’t ‘tag’ Tamerlane T. even after the clear FSB warning following Tamerlane’s trip to Dagestan. The biggest giveaway IMO is the Establishment’s minions like the Interpreter Mag hinting at or explicitly stating that Boston was not a U.S. false flag but a Russian one!
American Kulak
Anonymous 00:37
“Chernigov ancient town’ womenfolk, at the gates of the garrison.”
I was going to comment that their words sounded like poetry. Then I saw the video.
Wow.
Wow.
That might have been the most impactful protest I’ve ever witnessed. May God watch over them and protect them from us.
Finally Nora, I do concur with you that efforts are underway to equate ‘opposed to National Security State with ‘pro-Russian’ and or ‘Commie’. You don’t just see it in neocon rants like Jamie Kirchick’s ‘Paleocons for Putin’ taking advantage of Pat Buchanan’s verbal incontinence and traditionalist Roman Catholic longing for reunification with the Orthodox on non-aggressive terms. The talking points have been tested for the past two to three years on Twitter, see:
@ReginaldQuill becomes the Twitter account @StopAgitprop, who is likely the author of this series of pseudonymous articles at the ‘NY Young Republican Club’, judging by content and references:
http://nyyrc.com/blog/2014/04/russias-secessionist-strategy-exposed/
Given his bombast and failed predictions I hate to say Alex Jones has been right, but he’s been right about the DHStapo working on this ‘white Al-Qaeda’ propaganda meme for years. Which only people who’ve watched way too much Homeland and idiots who accept anything the feds say will buy. Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl’s father thanking Allah in front of President Obama with his ‘Taliban’ style beard seems to be a part of this weird psyop:
http://nyyrc.com/blog/2014/06/would-you-trade-ten-snakes-for-a-rat-the-case-of-bowe-bergdahl/
Which dovetails nicely with the ‘Putin is secretly arming America’s bitter clingers and KGB/SVR covertly supports white supremacists, Eurofascists in Hungary, and even the Ron Paul movement (LOL!) to undermine our beloved Federal Reserve and military industrial complex’.
http://nyyrc.com/blog/2014/04/russias-secessionist-strategy-exposed/
I.am.not.making.this.crap.up.The way I can tell it’s old Reggie Quill turned @StopAgitprop is because of the Russia obsession, despite him using the fake conservative MIIC hack Cliff Kincaid of late rather than the ‘Russia will nuke us any day now’ NStasiA fanboy J.R. Nyquist:
http://nyyrc.com/blog/2014/03/the-problem-with-the-pauls/
Even if one happens to be a gun loving Montanan who lives close to Chuck Baldwin, or Steve Quayle who sees Russian troops hiding behind every bush in America’s national parks, they will STILL call you a ‘pro-Russian’ or at least ‘defeatist’ ‘anti-American’ or ‘secessionist, neo-Confederate’ (my ideas of liberty having zero to do with the Confederacy, which itself was a wartime dictatorship set up to defend the ‘pecular institution’ of slavery rather than a noble struggle against Yankee empire-building).
What next, will we see fedtrolls insisting that the ‘Manosphere’ with its awe of young Slavic womanhood is a Kremlin psyop too?
American Kulak
@anonymous 01:09:
I do not understand, why it is Russia’s responsibility to save Europe? You just did in world war II
First, I am a White Russian (like Saker) born in the US, so my family was not involved in the Soviet project of “saving Europe” during WW II.
Second, by saving Europe I don’t mean that Russia should sacrifice Russian lives (I don’t think Dugin means that either), but to simply lead Europe by example and show them it is possible not to be a colony of the US, as Europe currently is. All Russia has to do to save Europe is to drive a wedge between the US and Germany, something which does seem to be part of the RF’s strategy.
@Andrew 00:54:
the only support for EU and NATO is Western Ukraine and Kiev. And in fact, outside of Western Ukraine, which wants to join EU by an 84-16 margin, Ukrainians are opposed to EU acession by a 34-66 margin and to NATO by a 22-78 margin
Regional differences did not make a breakup of the Ukraine inevitable. If the EU were not an organization which is going to always exclude Russia (even though Russia is European, unlike Turkey), and if NATO were not an American device the purpose of which is to prevent Europe becoming independent of the US (what use is the US to Europe today? None: it is just an albatross around Europe’s neck), Ukrainians would not have to make a choice between “the West” and Russia.
In any case, Ukraine is an artificial state, the product of successive attempts to split off the western part of Russia, first by the Polish empire, then by the German Reich, and finally by USG/NATO.
Fabius: “L’UE n’est pas prête à intégrer l’Ukraine”
Fabius: “The EU is not ready to integrate Ukraine”
The European Union is not ready to integrate Ukraine reiterated Saturday the head of French diplomacy Laurent Fabius, back from the inauguration of President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, who had hammered the desire to join Kiev the EU.
Mr. Poroshenko held “a very pro EU discourse, perhaps more than the EU countries are willing to accept,” said Fabius on I-TV.
“When Mr. Poroshenko said that (the association agreement with the EU) is the first step of a member of the EU Ukraine, when I discuss with my European partners, there is no majority for it,it is clear, “said Mr Fabius.
“Our belief is that Ukraine is in Europe, but that Ukraine should have good relations with both the EU and with Russia,” he added.
Ukrainian President Poroshenko pledged Saturday in his inaugural speech to parliament in Kiev, to maintain the unity of the country of the East is experiencing a pro-Russian separatist insurgency and lead this former republic Soviet to the European Union…
Mr. Poroshenko promised “signature as soon as possible”of the economic part of the Association Agreement with the European Union and the introduction of a visa-free regime for Ukrainians. “We see this as a first step towards accession to the European Union,” he said.
Fabius also felt that recent events – Putin meeting / Poroshenko Normandy Friday inauguration of Ukrainian president – were “possibly the beginning of a de-escalation” and assured that discussions on a cease-fire between the Ukrainian authorities and the pro-Russian separatists “should start in the coming hours.”
It seems that almost nobody is ready to accept the Ukies in the UE…
Chocolate king is though lying to the banderistan/maidancrowd
http://www.lalibre.be/actu/international/fabius-l-ue-n-est-pas-prete-a-integrer-l-ukraine-53938a4e3570d60b4dc23e9f
Daniel Rich said…08 June, 2014 00:32
“How cowardly, to attack you in a place/on a web site where you can’t defend yourself.
Says it all, really.”
Yeah it does. Thanks. It’s the standard zionazi/nazistan web crap. After I was banned on that Jewish site, several of the sayanim posted attacks, knowing full well I could not counter their smears. This is the typical zionazi chickenshit I’ve seen on every Jewish run website, “left” or right politically.
One FB page mainly in french but also articles in English,videos etc
https://www.facebook.com/republikpopulairedudonbass
I often read this blog from the Ukrainian crisis. I greatly appreciate their contributions that help me form an opinion outside of traditional media. Greetings from a descendant of Slavs from Argentina.
I often read this blog from the Ukrainian crisis. I greatly appreciate their contributions that help me form an opinion outside of traditional media. Greetings from a descendant of Slavs from Argentina.
Eric does a good job on this one…
http://stopimperialism.org/ukraine-nato-multi-polar-world/
Dear Saker, your perspective on all this is highly anticipated! There is almost nothing here in the us being spoken of about the situation happening in the Ukraine.
Also thank you commentators, your insight is informative as well as encouraging on so many levels. Blessing!
There is a good possibilty that Ukraine will run out of IMF money, which is the only money it has – and its pathetic little war machine stops in its tracks – as soon as it pays off its gas debt to Russia.
The country is beyond broke.
Anonymous 00:37, Auslander, Juan, or anyone else who knows Russian or Ukrainian,
Do any of you know the tune those women set their words to in that beautiful protest? I can’t get it out of my mind, all of it. So different from anything I’ve ever seen here, so genuine, from the gut, poetic — really, when I first saw the words I assumed they were different quotes from different women and literally thought someone should print it as a poem. I can only imagine the impact on those conscripts. Really, truly impactful. May God keep them safe!
As urgent the situation in Ukraine is, I’m afraid there’s going to be an immediate catastrophe of unprecedented scales in Syria. Literally millions of people about to run out of drinking water within days. I hope, Saker, you will at least put up a small story about this
http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-water-war-against-syria-turkey-suspends-pumping-euphrates-water/5386059?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=us-nato-water-war-against-syria-turkey-suspends-pumping-euphrates-water
Andrew said…08 June, 2014 00:54
“BOK TAK quoting Demian:”
Seriously, Israeli Jew-spam?
Your defense of fracking has already explained where your zionazi arse banditry mentality comes from. More directly:
“I got mine, goys, fuck you”
You and damian make a cute zionazi, if typical of the critter, couple.
A beautiful song from my country, for hope….to people in Novorossia
http://youtu.be/pHIxYlmAQAs
Yes I confess… I’m somewhat ignorant and surely in over my head posting on that blog.
I certainly did not mean to give in to the “enemy”, of course not.
What I meant was, how about a tactical retreat? Surely the Ukrainian Government doesn’t have the means to detain all able men, and anyway they need them to work in the factories and mines and such.
So it was my idea that a tactical retreat would give pause to the Anglo/Zionist push for war at all costs, give time to the separatists to get better organized and set up a “resistance” underground, and leave some room for maybe a media counter-attack campaign, and perhaps even some negotiations or other plot lines that we can’t imagine right now.
Now I’m sure that one possibility would be that the Ukrainian Government would just decide to bomb everything, but really, I doubt it, because the regions concerned are the ones that are rich in real resources.
OK, you start educating me now. Always happy to consider your thoughts.
Is it not possible tnat Porochenko’s address is only a façace to please tje Right Sector inside and the US outside and that he does exactly the opposite.
That’s whant most politiciens do on most subject, isn’t it?
Is it not possible tnat Porochenko’s address is only a façace to please tje Right Sector inside and the US outside and that he does exactly the opposite.
That’s whant most politiciens do on most subject, isn’t it?
http://mvs.gov.ua/mvs/control/zakarpattia/ru/publish/article/123467
Vineyardsaker: is this true?
Nation states and “nationalities” are useful charades suggesting mutual interest.
The “elites” use these charades against others but don’t usually subscribe to them themselves.
The “elites” always seek to enhance/maintain their position – in any living system the primary requirement is to live.
“Elites” will make alliances with other “elites” to enhance their position if this is possible/rational – which sometimes it is not – hence the convolutions.
Interesting leak by CyberBerkut:
Anonymous Email Leak From Security Service Of Ukraine To Derek Chollet (Sec Of Defense Asst) Proves Major US Involvement In Ukraine
Email Leak From Security Service Of Ukraine To Derek Chollet (Dept Of Defense) Proves Major US Involvement In Ukraine?
Original:
Full Control CyberGuerrilla, June 4, 2014
We, United #KiberOpolchenie Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, continue the people’s war against the fascist oligarchs and their henchmen Kiev.
We managed to get access to a personal computer, one of the Assistant Chairman of Ukrainian Gestapo VA Nalivaychenko.
As a result of the action at our disposal got a document that reveals some details of destruction Kulchytskyy filth.
Obviously, we are talking about some foreign experts, accompanied fascist general. These people could, how to perform security functions, and advise with respect to the general conduct punitive operations in the regions of New Russia.
Of particular interest is a text document with addresses. Based on the title of the document, we assume that it is – the address for mailing copies of the letter or its analogues content.
For more information, we will lay out here: http://vk.com/novorossiya_cyber_riot
***
First it was 14, then it was 12, now it is “more than a dozen people”:
Obituary: Major General Serhiy Kulchytsky – BBC, 29 May 2014
Major General Serhiy Kulchytsky, who led the combat training department in Ukraine’s National Guard, was among more than a dozen people killed when pro-Russian separatists shot down a military helicopter near the eastern Ukrainian town of Sloviansk.
On French website BoulevardVoltaire an article appeared, under the title, “An what if we really allowed Putin to speak?” The y say that parts of the interview were not broadcast. They added that there were mistranslations, some obviously unfriendly.
For example, asked about Ms. Clinton’s Hitler remark, Putin cited a Russian proverb, that in English would go like: “it’s unwise to squabble with a lady.” The translation the French heard was “It’s unwise to debate with a lady.” Under the title “The scandal of the cuts of TF1”, website les-crises.fr gives the integral text. They observe that TF! decided to cut essential elements of the interview.
Some hilarious anti-news from Moscow Times:
Viktoria Makarenko, of “Opposition-minded Novaya Gazeta newspaper said”: “These Ukrainians get 21-day holiday vouchers with the whole thing arranged by [Ukraine’s self-proclaimed separatist] Donetsk People’s Republic.”
So the Youtube video of the evacuation of women and children from Slavyansk, with cannon fire in the background must all be fake, a bit of Putin theatre, with the cannon sound track added.
DavidKNZ’s comment bears analysis (no pun).
He identifies a very specific threat: that the people running the show in Washington believe this is a “window of opportunity” before Russia and China are able to defend themselves.
In that case, the annexation of Crimea was a miracle and Putin can do no more. No more. The waters are much, much, much too dangerous.
Putin must fight the public opinion war first. And that is exactly what he is doing.
Russian TV has to calm down.
Andrew
Please ignore my 08 June, 2014 03:38 comment. I was pissed off about something IRL, completely misread your comment, and took out my anger unjustly on you. I aplolgise.
@American Kulak, 08 June, 2014 01:46
The biggest giveaway IMO is the Establishment’s minions like the Interpreter Mag hinting at or explicitly stating that Boston was not a U.S. false flag but a Russian one!
Not linking to the source = not verifiable = good-for-nothing
In the Netherlands we call it “roeptoeteren”
I’m sorry
Dear The Saker,
I thought this article was very interesting. This is how Russia will go “to war”. Not physically but economically and let Poroshenko and Co. deal with the fall out!
http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_08/Poroshenko-at-crossroads-Ukraine-has-to-decide-who-to-side-with-US-or-Russia-Europe-9589/
I still strongly believe Russia will keep its cool and “attack” Chocie Boy and his Nazi chums another way. So Chocie and USG have declared war – but the response will be very different to what they are hoping.
Rgds,
Veritas
I am not so pessimistic. Consider the points more closely:
– No federalization
The difference between federalization and decentralization is primarily a game of words. What matters are concrete points like who selects the provincial governors and what power the different levels of government will have.
– No state status for the Russian language
Rejecting complete equality between Russian and Ukrainian does not necessarily mean advocating a worsening of the position of the Russian language.
– No recognition of the Novorossian political leadership
Poroshenko can negotiate instead with more traditional political leaders from the region. In fact I would expect that. Some of the NR political leaders – like Gubarev and Ponomaryov – don’t seem to me capable enough to me. Others – like Borodai – are Russians from Moscow.
– Full and unconditional surrender of the Novorossian Defense Forces
Demands from the other side that all Ukrainian soldiers be withdrawn are just as unrealistic. This could just as well be a negotiation position.
– Crimea will forever belong to the Ukraine
What else did you expect to hear? Poroshenko would be heavily attacked by nationalists if he had said anything else. It would also weaken his negotiation position regarding East Ukraine. So don’t expect any move in this area until the situation elsewhere has been settled. And even then “recognition” could be a gradual drawn out process as we see with Kosovo.
American Kulak,
I do think a false flag would be the precondition: it worked so well in 2001! And it would trigger “patriotic” rage responses enough to get the job done, especially with all the scorn now classically-conditioned into the phrase “conspiracy theorist”. But what about drones? If I try to get into your mindset (a useful exercise in so many situations), I could think all the drone work elsewhere would be practice for here, right?
Also too, more than likely Tamerlane T. was a CIA asset, just like his uncle. The FBI killing of their Florida friend, btw, was just a rogue Oakland cop (now how bad do you have to be to get fired from the Oakland police force!) that the FBI apparently took on no questions asked. Or so we are told. But yes, that Russian charge sounded so outrageously phony at the time — but do you think our guys actually think *that* far ahead? Phew.
And yes, I really do want to discuss a lot of stuff with you! I think there’s room in there for both of us to learn, and the advantage of that is, we can get somewhere concrete in terms of uniting our forces (okay, slooooowly, but still) against this nonsense and start rebuilding our society in the right ways. I am thinking we both basically want pretty much the same thing ultimately but have been deliberately sidelined by our, what, resentments, scorn and stylistic differences. If you and I can put those aside, see where we really mesh, give-and-take a bit and Get. Somewhere., well, so can everyone else and we can finally rid ourselves of these damned psychotic oligarchs and their bought-and-paid for government flunkies bleeding us all dry. (Kind of like Ukraine, you know? Or Russia in the 1990’s? Just a bit slower, that’s all. Damn them.)
I agree with you 100% on your 02:01 posting. Dang.
Daniel Rich 20:24
They know each other like two dog-eared books. Some shots look like two people who go to opera together. A few look like diplomatic “push hands” dance. Some like mother and son. I suppose he understands the hard place she is jammed in and allows that she has to at least say stupid things but I wonder if she’s looking for a way to avoid the NATO poison pill.
And then the madness factor:
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday (March 2) that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. “In another world,” she said.
P: Who is out of touch Angela?
M: [GRUSHKA sings while weaving:]
Then the lover started to leave
Then his girl ran pleading after him
Pleading and crying, crying and pleading:
Dearest mine, dearest mine
As you now go into battle
As you now have to fight the enemy
Don’t throw yourself into the front line
And don’t push with the rear line.
In front is red fire
In the rear is red smoke.
Stay wisely in between
Keep near the standard bearer.
The first ones always die
The last ones are also hit
Those in the centre come home.
(Brecht- The Caucasion Chalk Circle)
Brian
“Nora said…
Anonymous 00:37, Auslander, Juan, or anyone else who knows Russian or Ukrainian,
Do any of you know the tune those women set their words to in that beautiful protest?”
Working on that Nora. The women changed the words of that famous old song and VCO is working on a translation to English for you.
I second anyone who has countered that chances of a direct Russian military intervention are still under 50%.
Have Ukraine’s economic fundamentals suddenly radically changed? Is it really certain that pre-empting a hostile pro-Nato Ukraine is safer than allowing the epic world-war-level Russo-demonization that the western media is waiting with baited breath for? The new not cold but luke-warm war?
Let’s assume that the impression I get of informationclearinghouse.info is correct, Pax Wall-Streetica is running out of hydrocarbons and economic smoke and mirrors to keep THE financial crisis from rearing it’s ugly head again. Things will come to a head by the end of the decade. As a marxian-minded individual I’ve always thought that when capitalism reaches it’s own inherent limits, even after the credit and consumerist innovations that the big kahuna never predicted, the obvious way to give the zombie system new life is by destroying the modern/industrialized world and rebuilding it again. And again and again until the world is despoiled beyond habitability. “The answer is B, barbarity.”
By playing into this Russia would only martyr itself for Wall Street’s interests. On the other hand if it can manage to weather through the next few years (cross your fingers for no nuclear first-strike) Russia will be sitting on top of the world, literally and figuratively.
Not the time for humanitarian or ethnic-brotherly passions to take control.
BOK TAK:
No worries friend. It’s easy to misread things. Thanks for the note.
Crossvader said…Old Skeptic (22.52) “It seems to me….”
Not really. I interpret it based on how policy and power in Washington actually works. To understand US foreign policy you have to have good grasp of how its internal politics works, since that alone decides it.
What you have a set of ‘barons’ in all sorts of different areas. They are all pushing and shoving for greater power, influence and money. They all try to get ‘their’ policy’ up or they want money…..or both.
There are common themes, that, by and large, they all agree with. US primacy and ‘dominance’ are commonly agreed, though they will disagree about how to achieve that.
Sometimes they fight. The classic was 2007 when Chaney had advanced plans to attack Iran. The US military was aghast at the thought, especially after the drubbing Israel got in 2006. What followed was an amazing ‘in-fight’, with things like retired Generals coming out of the woodwork to pay for full page ads in various newspapers objecting to the plan. It culminated in the ‘revolt of the generals. And finally Bush backed them instead of Chaney (along with Georgia one of the few times Chaney didn’t get his way).
But, here is the scary part. To get their way they all push lies and propaganda within the system, these reverberate around within the system, like an ‘echo chamber’ (with tame media and think tanks all acting as amplifiers), some rise to the level of accepted ‘institutional knowledge’ (at least within a majority). Now when this is just an exercise to rip off the long suffering US taxpayer that is one thing. But when a ‘lie’, raised to the point of institutional belief, affects foreign policy that is quite another.
Two dangerous examples of this as it relates to the Ukrainian crisis. The first, long pushed and mentioned many times is that the US is about to become a huge oil and gas exporter because of ‘fracking’. Therefore, when the US gets around to building all the facilities and ports to do so, Europe won’t need Russian gas and oil, the US will, at some point in the future, be able to provide it. Anyone who has studied this knows that this is a physically impossible pipedream (check the Automatic Earth as a starting point on debunking this myth).
The second, far more dangerous, is their belief in their anti-missile defence systems (particularly the Aegis/SM3 ship based systems). Now I’ll bet that if I took a straw poll around Washington you would find a large number of policymakers/influencers that believe that it works and the US now has nuclear primacy.
Again this is a fantasy. A system that doesn’t, in fact cannot, work and is yet just another boondoggle to rip off the taxpayer. Here is one of the many critiques of this system http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_05/Lewis-Postol which doesn’t even mention the most obvious one…ship launched. To be affective against Russian missiles the ships need to be in the North Sea and Atlantic???? None of these ships have good sea stability, how well will they work pitching and rolling 20 degrees .. or more. I’d put that even a 10 degree movement (in the North Sea that is considered flat calm) would mean never finding (let along locking onto) an ICBM in its flight phase.
But the facts have been pushed out by the overselling, lobbying and outright lies (by both the USN and the manufacturers) and the ‘echo chamber’ has pushed this to the level of an ‘institutional belief’. This is probably a significant factor in the insane outrage and inflamed rhetoric at Russia by the US (and its satraps).
Within the ‘system’ they ‘know’ that they have nuclear primacy now… so Russia just has to suck it up because there is nothing they can do. Hence the (and much of it is frighteningly real) rage at Russia’s defiance ..”don’t they know they have already lost and the US can take them out any time they want”?
The potential for a gigadeath miscalculation because of a totally flawed, non reality based, decision making system is obvious. I’m arguing is that the US is nearly at this point right now.
Non-authorized translation of Swedish comment on the Proshecnko speach, quitre different from most contributions here including Sakers:
A Swedish view on Ukraine crisis, as a balance again, I do not support the content fully but for certain it is much more impotant for a WSF perscpetive on the conflict than the Western media flooding the world with lack of crucial inoformation stating the same over and over again:
Petro Parosjenkos inaugural speech
Porosjenkos speech was a speech for the gallery. The battle in the east will continue. No federalisation, no change of the position of the Russian language, continued focus on EU membership.
The reality is that Prorosjenko must come to terms with Russia. Otherwise threatens free fall.
Porosjenkos speech was in all respects a continuation of the policy since 1991 which aims to highlight the differences with Russia and the joint destiny with Europe, which is perceived as a unit west of both Russia and Ukraine.
But creating a new national Ukrainian myth is certainly not something you do in a jiffy.
He swore the oath of office with one hand on the constitution which has already been turned into waste paper and the other hand touching a Bible of the 1500’s, written in a language that in Moscow is called old Russian, in Minsk old Belarussian and in Kiev old Ukrainian.
Even Ukraine’s “ancestors and prophets” were said to have chosen Europe. Porosjenko referred to founding Fathers Ivan Franko and Mikhail Drtagomanov.
The former translated Marx’s Capital and wrote mainly in Russian.
The latter is regarded as the Ukrainian socialist father. When he urged Ukrainians to “keep your head in Europe,” he argued specifically that the discussions in the Russian Alksandr Herzen’s magazine “Time”, published in London, and Nekrasovs “Sovremennik” (published in St. Petersburg) represented Europe in relation to the provincial Ukrainian journals.
For the future of Ukrainian radicals were thus Russia Europe! It is a perpetual problem for today’s Ukrainian nationalists that they almost do not have any ancestors to refer to as being as narrow as they are now.
The “peace plan,” he presented do not indicate any broader perspective. He condemned the leaders of the rebellion in the West – and mentioned pseudonyms for three alleged to have come from Russia – and said that with such “impurity”, such “devils” can noone speak.
He made it clear in advance that the outcome of talks with the East can not include federalisation. However, new local elections. (It is unclear how he places himself at the election of the Verkhovna Rada, which Maidan demanding at a “public meeting”, narodonje vetje today).
It also can not be any change of position of Russian. No, he meant, more importantly is that tere is work. Ukraine’s resources permit, living standards at European level, he promised. But before you share equitably in the resources “you must multiply them,” which is the neoliberal “trickle” down theory, ie that while the economyis expanding, some will drip on the poor man’s table.
Porosojenko promised “root out corruption”, maybe less credible promise from one that even the White House characterized as corrupt oligarch – before becoming a useful idiot. In an incantation against corruption, he said that “Some voted and held meetings for the money.” Fits in quite well on his own financing of Maidan …
So he promised to sign the association agreement with the EU, whose controversial economic parts none of the junta dared to write on the passed seven months ago Yanukovych refused this.
Second part, swedish contribution:
Russian President Putin made it clear at a press conference in Normandy (for the umpteenth time?), That such an agreement with the EU necessarily mean that Ukraine loses most favored nation status in trade with Russia. Its products will lose competitiveness in the Russian market – and it is hardly goods that the EU wants. As trading Ukraine-EU becomes duty-free, Russia must establish tariff walls against Ukraine to protect themselves against EU goods.
In addition, Ukraine’s privileged conditions for entry into the Russian Federation (even more liberal than those granted union brothers Kazakhstan and Belarus) have to be reconsidered.
Today 5-6 million Ukrainians – of a labor force of 18 million – in Russia. Their monetary remittances home representing a major part of Ukrainian GDP. Now they are threatened.
In short, the association agreement with the EU will be the straw that puts Ukraine’s economy in free fall. Foreign currency reserves are already down in the $ 15 billion (40 billion at most during Yanukovych).
The goal is full membership in the EU, said Porosjenko.
His duty would have been to inform the Ukrainian people that the road is closed for the foreseeable future. Turkey applied for membership of the EEC in 1987 and after 27 years, they do not come closer.
According to the French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius was Porosjenkos inaugural speech perhaps more pro-European “than is desired in the EU.”
Most member states do not support a Ukrainian connection, said Fabius, and none of his “Western colleagues want Ukraine to join the NATO.” “Not even the Americans want it,” he said. (http://russian.rt.com/article/35650 # ixzz343eu2rrc)
So why pull the wool over people’s eyes?
The Russian official comments to Porosjenkos speech has been cautiously positive, bordering on naive. I think that Moscow wants to wait and see how Porosjenko supposed to do up – he is wise enough to realize that Ukraine can not live in enmity with Russia.
When Porosjenko sat in Yushchenko’s government, he was seen even as “Russia’s Man” – was born in Odessa, with Russian as their mother tongue (which he do not practice today) and a member of the Russian Orthodox Church, not in the Uniate Church (Greek Catholic to their dogmas) which collects about 15 percent of the population, mainly around Lviv.
When Porosjenko in a statement requires that the Duma should revoke its consent to hold the Russian troops on Ukrainian territory, it means that he actually accepted the Crimea reunification with Russia, although he officially says the opposite.
But would Porosjenko prove to be as narrow nationalist as he sounds, and especially if he continues the senseless killing of civilians in the East, it might be necessary for Russia to intervene militarily.
It is something that Russia wants to avoid, but certainly not for any price. Resistance in the East reports that 600 tuberculosis patients in the Donets mustered to prepare a place for the wounded as it is expected in the near future.
BOK TAK:
No worries about any misunderstanding. Happens all the time on the internet.
Peace!
BOK TAK:
Regarding fracking, please understand that the opposition developed over the past 3-4 years most especially in the northeast US is entirely an astroturf operation by the usual suspects with an intention of gaining control of the revenue stream being produced.
Hydrofracking has been used for many decades in Texas and other parts of the US. The recent opposition is mostly seen in New York City, New Jersey, and Philadelphia, and is aimed opposition to extraction in the Marcellus and Utica shales under the present legal regime. This isn’t an issue of people worrying about gas wells in their backyard, the opponents live hundreds of miles from the nearest potential well site. A recent case in Pennsylvania was brought by wealthy people living on huge estates in rural Bucks County between Philadelphia and New York, though there is nothing to frack there.
The real concern here is that the estimated value of natural gas and natural gas liquids in the Marcellus and Utica shales is on the order of multiple TRILLIONS of dollars – 5-10 trillion under estimates I have seen. By comparison, the Bakken Shale in North Dakota is set to produce revenue of “just” 2 trillion and the American economy is being upended because of it. You can see this is a big deal. Between state law minimum royalties and the going market rates, about 20% of that money is going to flow directly into the hands of a group of people who are viewed by the east coast elites as a bunch of ignorant dirty rednecks, namely rural farmers and landowners and the rest to the drilling companies. The people in rural Pennsylvania are referred to as living in Pensyltucky or Pensylbama by the elitists, painting them as ignorant and superstitious poor white southerners, and similar terms are in use for upstate New Yorkers, West Virginians, and rural Ohioans. Here is an example of one such person I work with. His family has been buying land around Pittsburgh since the 1760’s, and has accumulated gradually a farmstead of over 1200 acres through centuries of saving and scrounging. He works as a railroad maintenance foreman and makes around $60,000 per year, nice but nothing spectacular. When the oil/gas landmen came, he walked away with a lease bonus of $5 million before a drill went into the ground. His land is large enough to take a couple of dozen wells in different directions, and each well will produce many millions in revenue for him and his family. Mutiply this by tens of thousands of people and you begin to see what is going on.
So the problem is that enormous amounts of money are flowing into parts of the states that the elites have exploited for over a century through outright theft and subterfuge in timber sales and coal mining, while the elites are getting nothing because there are no state revenue laws requiring extraction royalties to the state – the rural people own the mineral wealth outright by allodial possession so long as they own the land. Because money equals political power, the levels of money being talked about have the potential to utterly upset the applecart in state and even federal government. Hence the astroturf opposition to drilling with pious nonsense about concern for the people leasing their land who have been exploited, abused, and oppressed for a century. If you read the local press, you will hear the same politicians saying one day they oppose fracking on “environmental” grounds turn around the next day and promise to place an extraction tax on the gas drillers and fund everything under the sky with it. They will even claim that it is wrong that regular people own the mineral wealth, and say it should be seized by the state. They don’t really oppose fracking – they oppose not getting a cut of it to skim, and they oppose rural people getting anything.
Andrew and BOT TAK,
I and many people I know in the Northeast, especially in the Marcellus and Utica Shale areas, have organized *ourselves* in opposition to fracking — I assure you we are neither elite, urban nor astroturf! That is frankly absurd misinformation and absolutely untrue. There are a plethora of studies demonstrating the risks of earthquakes and water contamination — and in the arid West, the absurdly large use of water throughout the process is also of great concern. I am not sure where Andrew is getting his information — which may make him feel better about destroying water and land — but we have not seen those kinds of numbers anywhere else. And frankly, I deeply resent his slurs of Pennsyltucky residents, elitists and, by implication, anyone anywhere to his left. Also, he is inaccurate re: mineral rights. He made his money, he’ll frankly be lucky if he makes any more, but his well area and quite likely the water around it will be ruined forever. Even if he doesn’t live there, others of God’s creation do, and we could not in conscience risk their lives forever just for a quick profit as he has. Nuff said.
Ukraine is Syria-light now. The nationalists there just don´t know it yet, as they are fighting and bombing their own country in the name of EU&IMF&US.
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