Dear friends,
I am creating this open thread for your to exchanges views and information about the Ukraine (please stay on topic!) and I expect my next analysis to be up tomorrow, God willing.
Kind regards
Andrei
Saker Message:
Some truth being reported in French media:
French journalist after visiting Ukraine was shocked to find that the Ukrainian forces were ‘unofficially’ being led by American commanders:
“I was surprised that in order to join the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, well, it’s the Americans who are in charge. We almost got arrested.
An American came to tell us: “Here I am in charge, not the Ukrainians, but me.” He even introduced himself. He is a veteran of the Iraq War.
A report about it will appear in Figaro Magazine this week.
He behaved rudely, at first he wanted to kick us out. He said: “Take the chips out of your phones”. We had to sign a contract until the end of the war.
… I thought that we would be with the international brigades, but it turned out that with the Pentagon.”
https://t.me/Reality_Theories/5639
He says it and a personal testimony is powerful, but so is the fact that the U.S. does not want to participate directly in the conflict and this “veteran” would all by himself be cancelling U.S. policy. I doubt the story even if they publish it. The guy could be a mercenary there on his own, which is different, a loudmouth who says all kinds of things. The media guy is also not speaking professionally, but is too partisan or involved (“… I thought that we would be with the international brigades, but it turned out that with the Pentagon”).
@ History Lass
I thank you kindly.
I am not, by far, well versed in Russian history, it is so vast and rich.
Anyone could spend an entire life just on Napoleon’s invasion of Russia, or Peter the Great biographical epics. I would suggest, within the current context, A. Martyanov books are a must, and you’ll have enough with them for a while. In one of his recent videos, “What is the Plan?” (https://youtu.be/j8a_e09FvXA), Martyanov suggested a book you can download for free on PDF titled “The Russian Way of War” (Grau & Bartles), my current reading, which is not a history book, however, it gives you a bird view of the modern Russian Army that easily turn into insights of the current conflict.
As for history books, I’d recommend a bio on Peter the Great, in whose epic life I have found a strong similarity to Vladimir Putin, not Putin the Great yet, but not far from that.
Enjoy your reading.
Lone Wolf
@Lone Wolf,
Thank you so very much. Looking forward to reading about Peter the Great!!
I appreciate you taking the time to answer me.
Thank you again
History Lass
Good interview with a Swiss expert on the reasons for the SMO. Spoiler alert,it was the West’s fault:
US, EU sacrificing Ukraine to ‘weaken Russia’: fmr. NATO adviser
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4zReg7Bhu8&ab_channel=TheGrayzone
Can the group help me? I saw a link a few days ago, where Russia claimed it has captured more Javelin anti-tank weapons, than Ukraine now has in its inventory. Now I can’t find it.
Can anyone confirm these reports?
Because they turned out to be of little use in a situation where much of ukie mil find themselves on foot and anyway too cumbersome. So they just leaved them. NLAW has fared better but even there some Ukie units have said they just carried them as they had no training in their use.
It has become increasingly difficult for NATO (under the tutelage of the US) to be thought of as being ‘democratic’ in any real sense of the word, given the authoritarian populism which have been rising in several NATO countries. Think – Turkey, Poland, Hungary who have become thinly disguised dictatorships. That could also be a charge easily levelled against the Baltic states which haven’t been democratic since first the Communist and then Fascist regimes, and have been in the ascendant for most of the 20th century. Moreover the coalition government which swept into power in Italy as a result of the 2018 election exhibit some of the same behaviour, and increasingly relevant populist parties in other NATO countries confirmed a trend which is spreading across Europe in general.
Continuation of this process of creeping authoritarianism are hard-pressed to credibly portray NATO as an alliance of democratic powers. The problem will only grow worse if the alliance adds new members, willy-nilly, have a weak commitment to democratic norms and practises. ”Ukraine could be an especially troublesome case.” (1) Nota Bene.
”Although Kiev’s cheer-leaders in the western (especially the US media) like to portray Ukraine as a beleaguered democratic David facing off against the Russian dictatorial Goliath, the reality is far murkier, and more unsettling, especially with respect to political values.” (2)
”NATO The Dangerous Dinosaur.” Ted Galen Carpenter.
There you have it. NATO is an out of control dinosaur which grows by accretions and is apparently out of any sort of compass other than expansion for expansions sake. I recall that it was Joseph Schumpeter who made the wise observation about military expansion without any goal, other than more expansion of course.
Schumpeter 1918-1919 ”… Contented that in Egypt ‘a class of professional soldiers formed during the war against the Hyksos persisted in fighting even when those wars were over along with its instincts and warlike interests.’ But Schumpeter then aids a brilliant rejoinder. ”Created by the wars that required it, the military machine now created the wars it required.”
But let’s end on a tragic-comic note.
Apparently continuing enthusiasm for adding Georgia and Ukraine to NATO is not confined to conservative nor neo-conservative precincts. The abject idiocy of spokespersons for the Atlantic Council was amply demonstrated by the following pearl of wisdom. Wilson and Kramer in August 2018 a report which read as follows. ”Enlarge NATO to Ensure Peace in Europe.” (sic)
This is new and rare footage from the “tank incident”, according to some sources it was blue on blue but judge for yourself:
https://files.catbox.moe/4rcq24.mp4
This is the aftermath with a lot of dead Ukrainian soldiers (warning GRAPHIC):
https://files.catbox.moe/ds9e3k.mp4
Was it really friendly fire? Tank commander was looking outside the turret and should have definitely seen the colored armbands. What do you think about this?
Here is the “original” angle of the situation:
https://files.catbox.moe/naer9i.mp4
Towards the end of the video you can clearly hear a second shot of the main gun and then some machine gun shots.
A little too much for friendly fire in my opinion.
The voice of Russia’s past,made new again:
How beautiful!
Alexei Stepanovich Khomyakov, 1839
Kyiv
High in front of me
Old Kyiv over the Dnieper,
The Dnieper sparkles under the mountain
Iridescent silver.
Glory, eternal Kyiv,
Cradle of Russian glory!
Glory, our fleeting Dnieper,
Russia is a clean font!
Sweet songs rang out
In the sky, the evening ringing is quiet:
“Where are you from,
Prayers, take a bow?
“I am from where the
The Quiet Don is the beauty of the steppes.
– “I’m from where it swirls
Boundless Yenisei!
– “My land is the warm shore of Evksin!”
– “My land is the shore of those distant countries,
Where is one solid ice floe
Wrapped the ocean.”
– “The wild and terrible top of Altai,
Eternal shine of its snows,
There is my native country!”
“My homeland is old Pskov.”
– “I’m cold from Ladoga.”
– “I am the blue waves of the Neva.”
– “I am from Kama abounding in water.”
– “I’m from Mother Moscow.”
Glory, Dnieper, gray waves!
Glory, Kyiv, wonderful city!
The darkness of your caves is silent
More beautiful than royal chambers.
We know, in the past centuries,
In the ancient night and the darkness is deep,
Russia flashed over you
Sun of the eternal east.
And now from distant countries,
From the unknown steppes
From deep midnight rivers –
Regiment of praying children –
We are around our shrine
All collected with love…
Brothers, where are the sons of Volhynia?
Galich, where are your sons?
Woe, woe! they were burned
Poland wild fires;
They were seduced, they were captured
Poland noisy feasts.
Sword and flattery, deceit and flame
They were stolen from us;
They are led by someone else’s banner,
They are ruled by an alien voice.
Wake up, Kyiv, again!
Call your fallen children!
Sweet is the voice of the father,
The call of prayer and love.
And rejected children
Just hear your call
Breaking the treachery of the network,
Forgetting the alien banner
Again, as in time,
Calm down will come
To your holy bosom
To your parent’s home.
And around the banners of the fatherland
They will flow in droves
To the life of the spirit, to the spirit of life,
Reborn by you!
1839
https://t.me/majorselivanov/5007
on Bucha
.
Putin said that Lukashenka gave him documents about the provocation in Bucha
.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced today, April 12, that his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko handed him documents regarding the provocation in Bucha, stressing that reports of events in this Ukrainian city are fake.
“As for Bucha,” the head of state told reporters at a press conference following the talks with Lukashenka. — I talk with colleagues from Western countries often, still. And when they say “Bucha” to me, I ask: have you ever been to Raqqa? Did you see how this Syrian city was completely destroyed, down to the very ground, by American aircraft from above? And there, indeed, the corpses lay in ruins for months and decomposed. No one had a case before, no one even noticed. As no one remembers the hundreds of civilians killed in Afghanistan. Silence! There was no such silence when provocations were staged in Syria. When they portrayed the use of chemical weapons by the Assad government. Then it turned out that it was a fake. The same fake is in Bucha.”
.
“Alexander Grigorievich even gave me documents today, which were transferred to the FSB, how, who, they have the appropriate intercepts, what transport he used to come to this settlement and created the conditions for organizing this provocation and fake,” Putin added
.
Подробнее: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2022/04/12/putin-soobshchil-chto-lukashenko-peredal-emu-dokumenty-o-provokacii-v-buche
The New York Times today says the use of chemical agents in Mariupol is being investigated:
“Russia is pouring troops and equipment into eastern Ukraine, presaging a bloody new chapter in the conflict. The U.S., Britain and Australia said they were investigating an unconfirmed report that Russia had deployed a chemical agent, after a handful of people in Mariupol fell ill.”
One observation would be that it makes no sense for Russia to do what Ukraine is praying for.
Secondly, it’s not good for three cousins to investigate this alone…Brazil should be invited to participate, or anyone outside the English family of the world – to get different theories, angles, etc. For the three cousins who have it against Russia to “investigate” is obviously too suggestive of something else. How did the three get to be in this position of investigators of the one they’re against? Let’s be serious!
An interesting article from Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/blowbacks-from-ukraine-war-will-be-deadly-serious/
Some paragraphs:
‘Despite Western media accusations of genocide and war atrocities, Putin has apparently been careful to limit civilian casualties. As former ambassador and US official Chas Freeman has pointed out, the ratio of civilian casualties from the Ukraine conflict to military casualties has been one-tenth of that normally found in a typical war.
Newsweek reported a US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) analyst as saying, “I know that the news keeps repeating that Putin is targeting civilians, but there is no evidence that Russia is intentionally doing so. In fact, I’d say that Russian could be killing thousands more civilians if it wanted to.”
Yet Blinken had the temerity of wanting to charge Putin with war crimes without any sense of irony. So far, no one has accused Putin of indiscriminate carpet-bombing, drone strikes on wedding parties or waterboarding of prisoners of war. All are war crimes that Americans could have been charged with but have not.’
Well Zelensky is clearly not fit to be President of a public urinal. Pictures of Medvecheck, the Leader of the main opposition Party in Ukraine, in handcuffs and going to be charged with Treason related offences. I think that’s a euphemism for ‘He will be disappeared presumed dead’. Zelensky being a Tin Pot Dictator and all round dangerous idiot, has said he wants to trade Medvecheck with Russia for Ukie POWs. Now, let me think here, what is Putin likely to say? “Yes of course we will” or “you have arrested him and charged him with Treason. Therefore your Justice System is responsible for legal process and decisions”. So much for the West trying to portray Zelensky as fighting for democracy. He’ setting himself up as a Dictator. Oh the dreams of men! The CIA will disappear him quickly when he stops being useful to them.
Reinhard Gehlen. Post-war Europe and the Soviets immediately appeared as the adversary and the OSS/CIA had approximately zero humint sources in the USSR so they hired the Nazi Gehlen and his implied network in the USSR. Like Werner von Braun but not as telegenic. He brought on board 400 pals and created the CIA’s first serious spy structure. Nazis all. Don’t ask don’t tell. I’m not in a position to know but can imagine that there were more than a few Ukrainians in his network. Stalin’s brutal de-kulakization had created a hatred of Russia inside Ukraine. Institutional memory is a powerful force. Everywhere.
I hope that there is a serious person left in this country. The Russian was clear and unequivocal. The Russian proposed a security summit to make his concerns clear. We ignored him. We have attempted to destabilize Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan. Still fighting the last war. It’s hard to believe that the eccentric hotelier Orange Dude has a better grasp of balance of power politics than all of these over-educated war mongers. The Russian has been patient but that must have limits. We had better listen because he is serious and his claims have merit.
We have attempted to destabilize Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan.
Leper on April 12, 2022 · at 10:20 pm EST/EDT
We _have_ destabilized Ukraine, at least twice, 2005 and 2014, replacing the elected government with one more to our rulers’ liking.
I’d throw in the “globalization” of Russia in the ’90s and early ‘oughts as their peak-performance.
I recently stopped and thought about who NOW, and for a while, is responsible for the carnage in Ukraine? Clearly comes down to anyone and everyone supplying weapons to that comedian come leader on the world scene Zelensky puppet. If not for this, I believe this most certainly would have been over in a manner of weeks. Putin would have stuck to his stated plan then—as he is now.
At this point, some find it easy to say or think it obvious that Putin just sucked as a military strategist, that he screwed up, made a bad job of it or simply didn’t think it through. Actually I don’t think that’s the case at all. NEVER in his wildest dreams could he have imagined the West could have been THIS stupid.
Of ALL current world leaders including EU lady-boys-in-suits, and our US Depends and bib wearing POS, Putin is what a national leader should be (set aside generalized gross abuse of office). This scares the living shit of of the rest, who never should have been released from the sperm bank.
Now HE’S in a war he can’t get out of because of the west, and we’re going to destroy him, and what little good will American citizens MAY have remaining with Russian citizens following the first and worst farking we gave them the very first moment they let their guard down in the nineties.
Putin’s a war criminal but Israel has the RIGHT to militarily defend themselves from kids throwing stones. Same shit, different millennium.
Phew 😮💨 🥵, I feel better now, don’t you?
Sorry.
Imagine how many more sitreps we’d get if the Russian army had actually moved into Kyiv. Why feignt when you can just take? It has to be taken at some point. Unless Russia is content with Zelenksy remaining in power. That would mean kicking the can down the road, again, but this time at great expense.
I’m pessimistic but I hope I’m wrong.
It was tactics to not take Kiev. The aim was to avoid concentration of Ukraines troops in Donbass. It’s “devide and conquer”.
And maybe, yes, it would be wise to let Zelensky in power. Because who else than him can “calm the West” by agreeing to the conditions?
Thank you, those are great points. I’m not going to argue, I love being wrong on this.