Note by The Saker: normally, I would place a SITREP in the SITREP section, but since this event has so many people fired up and since Le Dahu provides such an interesting analysis, I have decide to post this as a “Guest Analysis”.
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After the Saker’s latest analysis on Putin, Israel and the downed Il-20, I decided to put fingers to keyboard to type out this sitrep of sorts.
Quote 1:
“The bombing raid was near the French frigate the ‘Auvergne’ and in close proximity to the Ilyushin-20 plane from Russia’s Aerospace Force that was about to land,” Konashenkov said.
http://tass.com/defense/1022031
Vague description of route with no timing indicated. “Close proximity”. Questions: did the 4 F-16s use the ‘Auvergne’ as some kind of waypoint just before launching their missiles? How close is close, a few kilometres or 10’s of kilometres?
According to the Russian infographic provided at the briefing, the flight of Israeli F-16s went past the ‘Auvergne’ on their way to strike Syrian military installations. “At the same time, the Russian radars fixed missile launches from the French frigate Auvergne, which was in that area,” the Defense Ministry said. (TASS article 2:32 18th September). Plus this: “Airspace control has recorded rocket launches from the French frigate Auvergne”. (Does anyone have a copy of this MoD statement?)
The Russian Ministry of Defence initially said it detected missile launches in the area from the ‘Auvergne’, at a time when the Israeli aircraft were in the air. This was duly reported by Russian media – this TASS article shows. But the French Ministry of Defence categorically “denied any involvement in the attack.”
In strange twist, this news disappeared out of the media, which was turned into Quote 1(above) as reported in a later Russian MoD press briefing.
Puzzling for the Russian MoD to take this course of action in the immediate hours after the shooting-down. I hope some facts will come to light. I find it troublesome that the Russian MoD would invent a scurrilous story, easy to dismiss and then afterwards liable to ridicule and discredited liars.
Quote 2:
He pointed out that the Israeli command centres and the F-16s’ pilots “could not but see the Russian plane, which was approaching the runway from an altitude of five kilometres.”
Coming down on final approach from 5 km height, well… everyone could see it then, even if it hadn’t activated its IFF, (NATO SNMG2 ships, US navy ships, Russian Navy, Israel, Cyprus and Turkey).
Debris from the downed IL-20 was found approximately 27km off Baniyas according to Russian officials.
http://tass.com/defense/1022031
As the Russian MoD infographic mentions that the F-16s were carrying GBU-39 glide bombs, then the presumed launch range is between 110km and 72km, (according to the specific type). We are assuming then that the ‘Auvergne’ was also within this range bracket. (Trying to fill the blanks provided by the Russian MoD).
Quote 3:
“A hotline warning was received less than one minute before the strike, which left no chance for getting the Russian plane to safety,” he added
http://tass.com/defense/1022031
To note that this is the hotline. The reality on the ground would have distinctly different, since the Russian Navy AD warning systems would have picked up the Israelis some time before. Similar situation for the Russian coastal defence units.
The newest generation of Russian Navy ships (in particular, the 3 Buyan class & Admiral Grigorovich class ships) has integrated systems with their land counterparts.
Not that it would have helped since the Latakia region gets targeted on a regular basis for years now by Israeli AF, with the Russian Navy not batting an eyelid and possibly having their AD in stand-by mode.
I won’t dwell on this any further given Andrei Martyanov’s detailed recent explanation on 20th September
I’ll leave this here:” The creation of the multi-layered and highly efficient air defense system in Syria capable of protecting military and civil facilities from air attacks is possible with Russia’s assistance already now,” Bondarev said.” http://tass.com/defense/1000450
Lastly on this aspect, Syrian social media accounts at the time of the missile attacks seem to suggest a duration of 50 minutes. To my mind, this seems a long time for 4 attacking F-16s (with or without the use of decoys).
The response from one Italian AF tanker suggests it was avoiding unwelcomed attention, off southern Cyprus, by flying further south.
Does anyone have a timeline for the event? I’ve got only this: Loss of Il-20 at 23:00pm Moscow, around 20:00 GMT
Naval presence
Certain articles suggested that the Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 (SNMG2) ships “inched closer to the Syrian coast” just before the Israeli air strike. On what basis did they formulate this assumption? Other than generally portraying a livid imagination of multi-level assumptions, these don’t add value to trying to appreciate better the short- and medium-term activities in the Eastern Mediterranean. (Rant over).
The role of the 4 SNMG2 ships is to watch over, to obtain which is termed “Maritime Situational Awareness” (MSA) of the main Russian Navy ships in the area. So, if they ‘inched over’, it was to keep in the vicinity of the Russian Navy. NATO ships have been doing this kind of mission for years.
Some of the NATO ships got the limelight thanks to a Russian reporter back at the beginning of September, which resulted in a couple of follow-up tweets here and here September. (Personally, the Russian MoD is a bit too coy on this aspect, it ought to put up more social media posts … oh look there’s a US DDG, like this example of the Marshal Ustinov).
The Dutch warship ‘De Ruyter’ as seen by TV Zvezda around the 6/7th September.
Another NATO ship shadowing the Russian Navy Mediterranean group is the HMCS ‘Ville de Quebec” as seen here. The fact is that they were there weeks ago and will continue to maintain a presence for the foreseeable future. They were bystanders just as all of the Russian Navy was off the Syrian coast.
To quote ‘” the known unknowns’, the more pressing concern for military analysts is that of the US destroyers and submarines likely to be off both the west and east side of Cyprus. Did any of them ‘move’ closer to Syria in the run-up to the Israeli strike? What kind of air activity took place in the hours before? There was a P-8 patrol out from Sigonella reported just after the air strike. The timing of this patrol is just tad (slightly eyebrow raising) suspicious.
The situation now
Russian military authorities took a drastic step a day later to cover parts of the eastern Mediterranean with red Flight Restriction zones, (18 Sept – before decision made, 19 Sept):
The areas are still active until the 26th of September. President stated that there will be “steps that everyone will notice.”. Well these NOTAMs & NAVAREA III messages frankly are noticeable by all aviators and mariners.
Pressure points applied to all and sundry, including the western approaches, always used by NATO ships and aircraft. My hunch is the Russian Navy is monitoring all access points to Middle East, until such a time that the relevant intelligence, data and information is fully processed, evaluated, analysed and interpreted for the top ‘brass’. The physical problem is that it seems the Russian Navy is well spread out and they are thin in number, comparing to the increases in US and NATO ships into the region.
Rumour control says the cruiser ‘Marshal Ustinov’ took a sightseeing tour southward, off the Israeli coast. This would be handy, if verifiable, because it may well provide an early detection warning of Israeli AF flights going seawards. Certainly, the US Navy aerial patrols have taken a wide sweep of the area, including this one and this one. Then there is the high-altitude U2 (out of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus).
The French Navy ‘Auvergne”
The ‘Auvergne’ (now in Cyprus) is one of 3 that participated in “Operation Hamilton’ Syrian strikes back in April. Onboard are Aster 15 anti-air missiles (operational range said to be 7-30km), along with French cruise missiles known as MdCN (Missile De Croisière Naval). The ‘Auvergne’ (in blue) might have been in company with the ‘Chevalier Paul’. The Russian MoD stated that the Krivak-class Frigate “Pytlivyy” was nearby (in red). Being the closest Russian naval ship, they would have been on hand to monitor, track and relay data on ‘hostile’ activity.
Personally, I am more than sceptical about the role of the French ship in launching Aster missiles. The repercussions would have been enormous, firstly due to the presence of Russian Navy warships in the region. I believe (someone maybe be able to clarify) that the Russian ROE would have allowed in self-defence a counter strike against the ship, (air, sea and land units). (Yes, I know that Macron is unpopular chez nous, but that is a lame excuse to potentially start World War III?)
Was the ‘Auvergne’ presence a convenient bait for Israeli AF or even covert Israeli navy? After all, its position would have been known well beforehand, (with a little help from US sources I guess), due to the proximity of the “Pytlivyy’.
To place into the context of the previous strikes back in April, the French FREMMS took part, with only ship successfully launching a volley of MdCNs. There was safety in numbers, backed by US Navy ships, USAF, RAF and FAF aircraft. The group of ships launched literally a swarm of over 100 missiles.
Everyone is making excuses for those involved. Does anyone here still remember that 15 Russians were killed? Does anyone still remember that they are still unpunished? Does anyone doubt that more Russians will die? Does anyone doubt that the murderers will also go unpunished? My father said that “the one who allows everything deserves everything”. Wise words.
When a world war is at risk, it is prudent to be cautious and extremely deliberate in one’s analysis of the situation and of any subsequent action. No one forgets the loss of life. But the fate of the world could hang on decisions made in Moscow right now. So be patient.
It is obvious that Russia will do everything to avoid a new world war; but an error or a crime has been committed against the IL-20’s crew. If it is a crime, it is a war crime and Russia after having gathered and compiled all the criminal data should sue the criminals even if they are frenchs!
Suing criminals is not starting the war but it is the minimum Russia should do for the families of the poor victims of the IL-20.
I will add that it seems necessary to remember to all the soldiers from every countries, that by executing a criminal order, they are ipso-facto becoming criminals.
Jean, I do not believe this was an error. This was a planned move to test, watch and analyze Syrian and Russian Air defense’s reactions. Hiding behind IL-20 was an ugly move to sacrifice Russian plane, just in case there was a reaction from the ground. I wonder if Russian let the plane be sacrificed in order for the countermove not to be detected. Russians will keep that for the real action, when the time comes. Some people call it chess game, I call it military strategy. The ploy failed as the old S-200 got used, sort of like you came you tried, now move on there is nothing to see.
You are correct – test and then play the fool. I think that such tests are going to continue.
When the World war is at risk, you do not shut Russian plaines, othrwise you are provoking and deliberately pushing for said war.
And I suppose that one you mentioned would have to be . . . nah, why bother.
How do you know who gets away with what? Do you expect the Russians to send you an email every time they eliminate a problem?
Perhaps you need to remember a few things Sir.
One, that this incident is but a few days old. The Russians dont do anything in a hurry, especially important things that could get millions killed.
There will be discussions, much data gathered, all behind closed doors. Much Intel will be gathered, again, things we know nothing of. Given that much of it is necessary [although I doubt all], the fact remains that we spend our entire lives like rather stupid children who have been sent to bed while the “adults” talk and decide.
We know nothing and contribute less.
Thus, you cannot suggest yet that the murders will go unpunished. I suspect, based on past evidence i.e. Deir ez Ezzor, that punishment will be metered out, just very judiciously.
Second, it appears a lot of people are forgetting that, when push comes to shove, Europe will still line up with America when ordered to do so. This means that if a major war came, it would be Russia, population 145 million, against the Empire, population about 640 million.
What do you suggest Russia does against this? At the first signs of war, real signs, she will have no option but to let loose with nukes, in the hopes of protecting herself.
This isn’t something we want, is it?
So – wait and see is the order of the day, I would suggest.
The unfortunate impression is that this was a combined Israeli-NATO provocation against Russia, where the French frigate was set up for retaliation by Russia. When that Russian reconnaissance plane was shot down, it was reported that the French frigate did indeed fire at least one missile. What kind of missile ? Was it an AA missile, or a cruise missile ? After that no more info is provided. This, too, says plenty, as if the intention is to prevent any hysteria directed against a NATO member, leading to full scale war.
What is strange is this entire incident is that both the four Israeli F-16’s and the Russian reconnaissance plane were clearly visible on Syrian and Russian radar screens. This means that the radar operators would have seen five images. Yes, the Israeli planes did run over towards the Russian plane, turning those five images into one. We are expected to believe that the Syrian’s were thus fooled and fired an S-200, hitting the Russian plane by mistake, when they must have seen those Israeli planes nearing the Russian plane. The official explanation makes no sense.
Critics have accused Putin of being mild on Israel. Was he mild because he knew that the plane was shot down by that French frigate ? What did the critics expect from Putin ? To either attack the French frigate, or to attack Israel and thus start a wider war, with NATO getting involved, now that NATO’s false flag preparations in Idlib have become exposed ? Just to point out that the chief target for Russia in Syria is ISIS, not NATO ships or Israel.
“The unfortunate impression is that this was a combined Israeli-NATO provocation against Russia…”
Rather as the Su-24 shootdown looked like a combined US-Turkish provocation against Russia. And in both cases I could not help imagining I could hear loud giggling from Langley and Tel-Aviv.
TASS is saying that the Russian MOD will release a complete report on Sunday. Presumably that has given them time to see if the Israeli data has anything useful in it.
One of the items that I hope is then clarified is what missiles were launched from the French Frigate. We don’t even know if they were air defense or cruise missiles.
From a website called F-16 dot net, it appears a F-16 can carry four of the GBU-38 glide bombs. Its possible that only 2 of the F-16s had such a loadout, with the other 2 F-16s having AAM loadouts to defend the bombers. Or of course the four F-16s might have had 16 of the 250 lb Glide bombs. Of course, all would have been released at the same time and would have arrived at nearly the same time. How many craters are at the site?
Looking at the history of Soviet and now Russian “info releases” I will say: do not count on to much. Russians are famous at keeping the real story close to their chest. Whatever will be released, will be considered “old news”, things that every one knows about, stuff that can not be analyzed, by who ever.
ISIS is a tool of NATO and Israel. Let’s not kid ourselves. After Russia’s and the Syrian Arab Army’s victories against the jihadi proxies Israel and NATO have stepped up their direct attacks on Syria. The fight now is to preserve Syria as a strong, sovereign state and prevent it from being split and weakened. NATO and Israel wants to reduce Syria to a politically impotent Lebanon/failed state without Iran or Hezbollah presence to prevent NATO/Israeli exploitation.
If Russia is in Syria only to play whack-a-mole with Jihadist proxies Russia may as well pack and go home. Time to get real for Russia. Up until now Putin’s strategy of talking to all sides, to keep Russia’s options open and to avoid panicked reactions from cornered nations, has worked. But this changed with this attack on Russia and the resent missile and bombing attacks on Syria.
– If Russia allows Syria to become a failed state Israel and NATO wins.
– If Russia loses this war the Middle East is lost to the Zionists and Iran will follow.
– If Putin/Russia looks weak now Turkey/Erdogan will flip back to NATO
– If Russia does not defeat the Jihadists in Idlib convincingly the campaign in Syria will fail and Syria will be split apart and balkanized. This would be a strategic disaster for Russia.
Syria is a strategic key, and Russia must act accordingly. I am quietly confident Putin and Shoigu will come up with the proper response in due time.
Russia’s strategy is called “winning.”
When Russia intervened, it appeared that ISIS was about to topple the government and take over the country. It wasn’t going to happen the next day, but ISIS and Al-Qaeda appeared to be in the process of wearing down the government forces to the point where they could succeed. There was a lot of talk back then about an ISIS caliphate. Russia’s stated purpose in intervening was to prevent this and keep the government from falling.
They have done that. They’ve done it magnificently well. They surrounded and cleared out the ISIS-Al Qaeda pocked in Aleppo. They cleared out the pocked in East Ghouta. They cleared the pocket in the southwest suburbs of Damascus. They cleared the pocket on the Israeli border.
This strategy might be called “whack-a-mole” by people who want a bigger war, but so far its successfully leaving a trail of dead moles behind it and the areas are cleared of ISIS and the process of refugees returning and rebuilding beginning are occurring there.
If the Russians weren’t winning with their strategy, then likely these bombing raids and threats of cruise missile attacks wouldn’t be occurring. Israel says they’ve bombed Syria 200 times in the last 2 years. Note that this puts these attacks firmly into the time frame of after Russia arrived and after Syria started winning.
But Russia, like it or not, is no longer fighting the proxies and their Israeli/NATO handlers on the ground in Syria only. The war has drawn in Israel, France and the UK openly. The US is of course already involved. Russia must adapt their brilliant campaign accordingly.
If the terrorists lob cruise missiles and glide bombs into Syria whenever they feel like it Syria cannot recover from the war. Securing the peace is also part of the war for Russia.
Syria is not the only theatre where Russia can apply pressure to FUCKUS and NATO . Their response will be asymmetrical. In Afghanistan Russia has brought government and Taliban together to hammer out a peace deal= massive blow to nato coalition forces. The north/South Korean realignment. Massive rail/energy trade potential for Russia putting western LPG dominance at risk. Ukraine , despite all the MSM spin Ukraine to join nato/ EU the fact remains this conflict will remain frozen as long as the Kremlin desires. Serbia , reinvigorated Russian support for Slavic brothers puts Kosovo, NATO on notice. Yemen , where drawn out war drains Saudi resources/influence further undermining petrodollar. Throw in Africa , Philippines , Libya , Indonesia etc and you start to understand that 1/ Russia is in a period of ascendancy 2/ imperial US UK is in an opposing trajectory.
This false flag attempt in Syria to get Russia to sink a French nato asset further highlights the impotence of FUCKUS. Too scared to attack Russia directly. No war would have ensued if Russia had sunk French frigate .
Just more MSM Russia demonising in the hope on making EU Russian in ruins. For me I am glad Russia exercised restraint
You are so right. Also, you could have added, that if Taliban and the government come to some agreement, it will be possible that poppy fields will disappear and the funds for all the covert wars will dry out as well. The Middle East might start breathing easier. Unfortunately for dark forces the opioids will vanish from the streets as well. The governments won’t need to spend all this tax payer’s money to treat or bury the addicts.
Russia might win in the Afghanistan after all.
What do you think the last command placed by the legitimate Taliban government in Afghanistan prior to the US invasion?
How about the cessation of growing opium poppies in Afghanistan. That could not be permitted to happen; the war was on!
I do not recall that one, was it to revive the poppy? As for the other one, as long as the powers at be, make tons of money from poppy it might be difficult to stop it. But, and here is a but, if Taliban says that opium is forbidden by their version of religion, then if they have power they might stop it. It seems that they have rebounded and have become political force worthy making compromises?
We should not forget all the public hangings and other types of executions when Taliban ruled.
I also remember northern tribes of Afghanistan (supported by Russia) losing their fight against Taliban. Russia was worried about Taliban’s version of Islam spreading to Russia. The only good thing about Taliban was no production of poppies. Pakistan seemed to be the main Taliban supporter, and now it’s not? My thoughts are: What’s changed. Who funds Taliban, they seem to show their men dressed in proper army clothes. Is ISIS cooperating with Taliban? To many questions, no answers.
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[From the moderator:
Poppies in Afghanistan are off-topic here. Please take any further discussion on the subject to the Moveable Feast. Thank you.]
Beating head choppers (‘winning’) was only a part of the job in Syria. Easier part I would say. What is happening now is dangerous possibility of confrontation with puppet masters, US, Israel, UK, France, etc…
Makes me wonder and I have a really hard time to accept it but is it possible that Russia, during its preparation for partaking in Syrian war did not consider a possibility that pupet masters would not give up after head choppers are defeated? Was Kremlin confident that pupet masters would leave Syria with defeat of terrorists?
Judging by recent actions in Syria by Israel, US, UK, France….Russia does look a weak in Syrian battlefield withoud having ‘red lines’ established. How else to call it, when Israel’s jets fly all the way up north, to within 100km from Russian bases, engage missiles flying over Russian bases and in the process causes a downing of Russian plane and killing of 15 servicemen. I simply cannot accept this to be called a ‘tragic event’. It is a war crime against Russia and Russian forces and should be treated as such.
Here’s what I think what happened from what we’ve heard so far.
The Syrian air defenses would have tracked the F-16s as they made their turn from off of Cyprus and released their bombs. If they used “glide bombs” they were not flying low. The F-16 was developed before the US started trying to ‘stealth’ planes.
The Syrian air defenses would have seen the Israelis fire their bombs, and tracked those after they were released.
Somewhere around here is the time they would have shot their missiles targeting the F-16, which at that point was not close to the EW IL-20 on its approach path to land.
The missiles do not arrive instantly after being fired. We’ve heard they have a radar receiver which picks up the reflections from a ground based radar transmitter. They track a target by this means. It would be very hard to hit a target so far away with a missile that did not track its target. As the missiles were tracking the F-16s, the F-16s made their turn that took them behind the IL-20. From the track on the diagram the Saker has supplied from the MOD, it doesn’t appear the lines ever actually touch. Thus, I doubt that the five tracks ever merged into one on their air defense screens. But that doesn’t really matter as the missiles had already been fired and targetted upon the F-16s.
What occurred is that the tracking system on the missiles got confused when the smaller radar reflection they were targetting went behind the larger radar reflection of the IL-20.
It appears from the briefing that it was the one F-16 track going in the opposite direction behind the Il-20.
Does anyone if the Israelis usually make a habit of loitering for 40mins in proximity to hostile defences? Reckless in itself.
Usually the Israelis are highly risk-averse. Quick surgical strikes, in and out almost before you know they’re there. Perhaps they were trying to make a point?
“The unfortunate impression is that this was a combined Israeli-NATO provocation against Russia, where the French frigate was set up for retaliation by Russia.”
Do you actually believe that the French just happened to float in between Russian ships and started cracking off missiles without Russian prior knowledge ??
Just like the Israelis communicate with the Russians when they want to bomb Syrian and Iranian targets……..
Just like the Americans communicate with the Russians when they want to bomb Syrian targets…….
…….the French communicated (coordinating) with the Russians prior to the bombing of targets in the Latakia area. The big surprise was an Israeli bombing raid without proper communication or warning the Russian side.
When will people realize that Russia has agreed with the Syrian government that it is not capable and therefore not willing to defend Syria against NATO and Israeli attacks by directly attacking their forces, and that the Syrian government has accepted this agreement.
The Syrian government would rather have Russian help in the liberation of their territories than no help at all.
How the hell do we need to spell this out to people:
Syrian government: Russian friends, look just help us out here….these Westerners are trying to destroy us using proxies and arming opposition forces.
Russian government: Ok look, we are coming over, but we can’t deal with NATO or a country like Israel if they attack you guys, its just too risky and dangerous for us….
Syrian government: ahhh…well ok, thats better than nothing.
Russian government: Ok, we are bringing the boys over.
Syrian government: Awesome, by the way thanks for all the weapons you have been sending us these past years (2012-2015)…..But you know we just really can’t cope all alone and there is not enough man power and expertise.
Russian government: No problem…..oh and by the way, we will still make things really hard for NATO-Israel if they try to attack you….we will help you develop as much as possible your anti-air defenses, by quality and quantity.
Syrian government: Ahh you guys are too nice, kind of getting emotional here ….thanks for everything !
@Harry
The Russo-Syrian “arrangement” you layout is simply not credible in the real world. The Russians didn’t just arrive in the Middle East, they have been studying this region for many decades now and probably have a better understanding of what is going on there than many give them credit for. The Russians were aware of the situation, Western backed jihadis attacking Syria, but they were also aware that it was the Israelis who were the driving force behind this war. They would have known that the SAA could not possibly prevail on the ground with the US/NATO or Israel flying close air support for the jihadis, even if the Russians were flying close air support in support of the SAA.
The entire premise of the Russian intervention was always that the Anglo-zionists would be prevented from directly striking the SAA in any serious way by the risk that doing so would mean war with Russia. Your “agreement” ignores that fundamental reality. The other reality that makes your “agreement” unlikely, is that the Russians would understand what a disaster it would be should the US/NATO overrun Syria while the Russian expeditionary forces simply hunkered down in their bases. Once deployed to Syria, Russia’s risks in this war far exceed the question of what happens to Syria. Russia’s very existence is predicated upon its ability to militarily deter the Anglo-zionists. Once your credibility has been destroyed, it is very difficult (and often bloody) to restore it. I do not believe for a moment that the agreement between the Russians and Syrians is as you portray it.
No doubt the Russians seek to avoid a direct war with the US/NATO, but they knew they were going to have to make a stand somewhere to stop this string of “regime changes” which are all preludes to a regime change in Moscow. I think that Putin took a huge gamble when he allowed the Israelis to continue bombing in Syria and I do believe that this arrangement was explained in detail to Assad and the Iranians and sold to them on the basis that it they were now winning this war and so long as Israeli strikes did not seriously impede the war effort, the Syrians and Iranians were willing to accept a certain level of losses to Israeli strikes without responding as part of a strategy for winning the war. But that is a long way from agreeing up front that the Russians would simply run a bluff with no serious plan to deal with escalation scenarios.
Putting yourself between a shooter and victim doesn’t solve the problem, unless you are stronger and can use the deadly force.
Russia can’t win a conventional war against NATO because Politically, Economically and Militarily is much weaker than France/ US and UK.
Russia cannot go nuclear in Syria because they cannot afford to trade the Moscow for Damascus.
While Russia cannot confront NATO in Novorossyia, and Syria, because this confrontation can trigger WW3, why NATO is confronting Russian in Novorossyia (killing more than 10000 civilians, and destroying everything), and killing more than 200 Russian in Syria because they were to close to Hegemon’s Allies, ignoring any possibility of triggering WW3?
We do not know the agreement between the “Partners” behind the closed doors, and we are not sure if all of this staging is just an Illusion, Deception and Diversion, in Global Proportions.
[q]We are expected to believe that the Syrian’s were thus fooled and fired an S-200, hitting the Russian plane by mistake, […] The official explanation makes no sense.[/q]
Indeed.
Just one S-200, for four attacking planes? This makes no sense at all. I would assume they fire at least one rocket per plane, or even multiple rockets. So how come no Israeli plane was hit?
After the Il-20 went down they had nowhere to hide behind.
This explanation seems to make sense (found it in another comment here on this blog):
https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/09/full-analysis-russian-disinfo-campaign-blames-israel-for-il-20-plane-downing-yet-exonerates-france/
Also, with all due respect to the owner of this awesome blog and all the great commenters here… why do so many people seem to assume that everyone else is lying, but their own side isn’t? From my own experience, I’d assume that all politicians lie. Some are much better at it than others though.
But then again, I grew up in a Western democracy so maybe in Russia it’s totally different. As much as I’d like to believe that, it somehow doesn’t seem to be realistic.
Rationally, logically, very little about this event is actually knowable from open sources. Try this exercise: list what you are reasonably sure actually happened. If you are clear thinking and honest you will have a list of *statements* about what happened, little more.
How can the truth be discerned? Perhaps it can’t, and that is the frustration the layman is having. Recognize and admit this limitation.
Inconsistencies in the various stories are the only tool the layman has. Is there a model that has no inconsistencies, and that also fits into a broader, more inclusive model? Maybe there is.
In time and as events unfold, the truth may become more obvious.
Actually, General Konoshenkov reported today in details, minute per minute what happened.
I still believe that there is more to this that meets the eyes…
Everyone is speculating and inferring.
we might finally get to know more tomorrow after the Mod briefings tomorrow..
until then.. I wld watch
The minute-by-minute timeline of the tragedy will be given with a presentation of objective data from the radars’ data handling system about the air situation on Sunday. source Tass.com
There certainly are gaping holes in what has been published so far (as far as I know anyway). Those GBU-39 glide bombs are quite peculiar, aren’t they? Weight 129 kg each, with either 17 kg or 93 kg of that being warhead/explosive according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-39_Small_Diameter_Bomb
The main text cites 17 kg of AFX-757 high explosive, but the side panel says “Warhead weight 206 lb (93 kg)”. Unless over 80% of the warhead weight is something other than explosive?
Wikipedia also mentions a rack that can carry four GBU-39s, and presumably the Israeli F-16s have such a rack. That would mean four F-16s could deliver 16 bombs – not a lot to sustain what has been described as a heavy bombardment for 90 minutes. Were the F-16 bombs supplemented by some other source of fire? The Auvergne, which carries a lot of cruise missiles, would be the obvious possibility.
The other funny thing about the GBU-39 is that, again according to Wikipedia, they can glide for up to 110 km. How high would the aircraft have to be flying to let a bomb glide so far? Because of course to get behind the IL-20 they would have had to duck down quite low. And, of course, in such a situation a pilot wants to get as low as possible and stay there.
Playing fast and loose with imprecise numbers I calculate the GBU-39 would have a glide ratio of 7:1.
For every foot of height it could travel 7 feet horizontally; for every meter of height it could travel 7 meters.
This purely and simplicitly based on 50,000 ft service ceiling of F-16 and 60 nautical mile published range (from ‘high’ altitude) of the GBU-39. The F-16 has a 50,000 ft/min climb rate but due to weight and fuel considerations this performance is unlikely. So depending on where the illuminating radar for the S-200 was placed in Syria the ‘shadow’ behind the IL-20 would increase in height the further behind the plane.
On these admittedly shaky calculations I calculate, given the map above, that the F-16 at 60 kms from target would release the GBU-39 at about 30,000 feet in order to reach its target. The F-16s would in practice need about a minute to accomplish this pop-up from sea level and perhaps this may explain the ‘1 minute warning’.
The Il-20 was at 15,000 feet so, if the numbers above were valid one could calculate the radar position in Syria by triangulation and whether the ‘hiding’ theory holds water.
Finer minds than mine will have already done this and I hope they have also applied their fine minds to what mischief the French frigate was up to.
Rate of climb of 50 000 feet/min with a load of external bombs under the wings???
Three? are enough.
To repeat: “The F-16 has a 50,000 ft/min climb rate but due to weight and fuel considerations this performance is unlikely”. That’s onboard fuel load plus any external tanks plus GBU-39 ordnance at 4 X 285 lb. That’s why I made a 60% estimate = 30,000 ft/min climb rate.
Three of what are enough?? GBU-39s? One would obviously be enough if it really was an ammunition warehouse.
The Russian MOD will publish a detailed, minute by minute report tomorrow, Sept. 23.
This analysis is helpful to get a better grasp on the situational positioning and movement of the planes and ships.
Clearly, the Russians have all the data involved in the crime.
They blew off the IDF generals yesterday in that meeting in Moscow. It reportedly went many hours long to no satisfaction of the generals. That Shoigu and Gerasimov were not in the meeting tells us a lot.
The 40-50 pages report the IDF brought did not do the job for Israel.
We really don’t have the facts necessary to judge what completely happened. Tomorrow we may have if the Russian MOD puts everything into public view.
But it was no accident.
The US intends to do to Latakia and Tartus what Israel just did to the Syrian warehouse (satellite photos of before and after are all over the Internet).
They have to stop the unfolding victory of Syria and Russia over the terrorist war, and the Russian-led political and social solutions.
Voltaire.net has an article showing how the UN and US-directed groups are trying to alter the Sochi and Astana processes and goals for Syria. http://www.voltairenet.org/article202985.html
Thanks to Le Dahu for this article. Very useful information.
Good points. As you say it certainly wasn’t an accident.
I am sure that the efforts of the Russian Air Force will be greatly enhanced by the addition of a new air base helpfully being provided by Iran
Russia Asks Iran to Use an Airbase on Its Soil
https://russia-insider.com/en/russia-asks-iran-use-airbase-its-soil/ri24820
I have followed this story across a number of websites (e.g., Saker, FRN, Russian Insider, Sputnik, etc) and have not heard one progress report about the salvage operation to recover the wreckage of the IL-20.
Actually, there were several news articles about the Russian finding the wreckage and bodies of the deceased soldiers on the same day all the MOD were doing their presentations about the night before. Check RT/Tass etc. Mod
No journalist has asked the question, “When will the FDR (Flight Data Recorder) and CVR (Cockpit Voice Recorder) give us more clues to what happened from the in-flight perspective of the reconnaissance aircraft itself?”
I was under the impression that military planes have at least FDR’s installed somewhere in the tail section like civilian commercial jets. This data is critical to the gathering of evidence to bring charges in the ICC (International Criminal Court) against Israel and other conspirators who acted with negligent homicide on at least 15 counts not to mention the loss of valuable property belonging to the Russian Federation.
There is no excuse the defendants can offer since these deaths by reckless acts were not a result of Israel and U.S.-NATO engaged with war against Russia or Israel declaring war against Iran. In my opinion, President Putin must vigorously pursue this from its legal perspective so the governing body of international law.can be center stage and for all the world to judge these repeated behaviors for what they are: criminal acts falsely framed around the legal concept of, “just cause.”
In this case, if Israel was not illegally bombing in another sovereign nation, then these deaths do not occur. The illegal act was to launch this bombing raid, and any deaths and results from that are firmly Israel’s responsibility.
The 50 min bombardment is one of the things I hope is cleared up by the Russians tomorrow.
It makes no sense in terms of missile warfare and tactics. If trying to penetrate air defenses that can shoot missiles down, the idea is to have all of the missiles arrive at the same time. Then hopefully the defenses are overloaded and can only shoot down a portion of the incoming missiles letting the rest get through to the targets.
In the April attack, it made some sense to have reports of a bombardment over an hour or two. The ships are often cited as to how many cruise missiles they can carry. But they can not fire them at the same time. As a very rough, pulled out of the air example, a ship might carry 100 cruise missiles, but only have launchers to fire 25 at a time. Thus, I could imagine an attack where the ships all fire one volley of missiles, then take the time required to reload all the tubes, then fire another volley.
But this attack doesn’t seem to be like that. I’m not sure why the French are involved to begin with. But the idea should be to fire its volley of cruise missiles such that they arrive while the Israeli missiles are arriving thus increasing the chance of getting through. The only mention of the FF is that missiles were detected being fired when the plane went down.
I do completely believe the MOD when they say the plane went down because of missiles the Syrian’s fired. Militaries usually don’t like to admit mistakes, not even by allies, so when they say this I tend to believe them. I am hoping that tomorrow we learn more about the role of the French FF and what it fired and when.
In answer to your question “Does anyone have a timeline for the event? I’ve got only this: Loss of Il-20 at 23:00pm Moscow, around 20:00 GMT”. Perhaps the following three twitter accounts maybe of interest.
https://twitter.com/Syrian_SR
https://twitter.com/MIG29_
https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog
Scroll down to September 17e for a chronological account of what happened that night in Syria experienced by these individuals.
I was following these three twitter account when events were unfolding on the 17e of September in light of the agreement between Putin en Erdogan.
On the issue of the French frigate the ‘Auvergne’. The following tweet maybe of interest;
https://twitter.com/Syrian_SR/status/1042066173117038592
The tweet states that Israel used one or more of their Dolphin class submarines in the attack. This makes a very great deal of sense and explains a lot. Each sub can hold up to sixteen cruise missiles. Israel has five Dolphins. The tweet doesn’t specify how many Dolphins were used in the attack but five Dolphins would deliver up to 90 cruise missiles.
So when is it put into the open that Israel is at war with Syria (and now Russia)?
Israel is at war with Syria since decades because a peace treaty was never concluded.
Concerning Russia, given the MoD presentation today, it is obvious to me that the Israeli pilots consider Russia as enemy because one does not hide behind allies while baiting the Syrian AD. I stick to my preliminary take of the attack: declaration of war against Russia.
That I had wanted to speculate and include in the sitrep. As that was my initial thinking on the 17th, a Dolphin sub with Popeyes (SLCM). If I had to wave a finger in the air prediction, I would hazard a guess that a Israeli sub would have been in the vicinity of the ‘Auvergne’. The timeline of SR Syrian shows the approximate duration of the event, I cannot imagine Israeli AF loitering for that length of time and I think it is him who mentions the size of the explosions being larger than for a GBU 39
Awaiting Russian MoD briefing.
Agree completely. My thinking as well. The use of Dolphins seemed an obvious explanation. Up to this point, there had been no evidence to support this, though. Very likely that the presence of the French was deliberately incorporated into the operation by Israel as a misdirection.
Well I watched the MoD briefing twice, none the wiser. I suspect the Israelis conveniently used the French Navy ship ‘Auvergne’ as a waypoint to suggest doing drills.
This doesn’t seem all too complicated.
If the following is true:
“Lastly on this aspect, Syrian social media accounts at the time of the missile attacks seem to suggest a duration of 50 minutes. To my mind, this seems a long time for 4 attacking F-16s (with or without the use of decoys)”.
Then there is a possibility that the French with full knowledge of the Russians were bombing Syrian or Iranian targets in the Latakia area.
The Israelis joined in the bombings without warning the Russians “on time”. The Syrians without having a clue what the hell was going on simply starting shooting SAMS at the air targets. The Israeli pilots used the IL-20 as cover as part of their evasive maneuvers leading to the IL-20 being hit.
So then you get:
1. Russians knew and let the French bomb Syrian or Iranian targets around Latakia.
2. Russians did not know that the Israelis would join in.
3. Because the Russians had no clue about the Israeli jets plans, they did not expect anything dangerous and let the IL-20 do its thing.
4. Syrians found out that jets were bombing them and tried to acquire radar lock to shoot them down, accidentally shooting down the IL-20. If the planes were close enough to one another, the homing missile cannot differentiate.
I do not think it was likely that the Israelis or French shot the plane.
If you have participated in a war (as I have) you would know the rule – do not suppose anything, analyze, expect and prepare for everything.
VVP the legal-trained lawyer seems to be dominant – he’s following a classically conservative tactic: Prevent recurrence and get the facts while emotions resolve. With facts a response calculated to avoid defeat, even as the opponent falls into poverty and disarray, permits Victory without defeat…
A sound and sober policy…we shall see what come after this…
Avoid defeat is basic Mao, and Sun Tsu.
Game is not tit for tat. It’s live or die…
For us, and for whatever you want to call the atlanticist/zionish nazis who rule “the west”, it’s live or die…
What the West must have (or die) is addressed here: https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-united-states-of-america-the-real-reason-why-they-are-never-winning-their-wars/5654433
The West is, of course, a tiny fraction of the elite, ruling over a vast and delusional population they themselves murder freely.
Israeli arrogance and hubris combined with a persistent disdain for the life and property of others are what caused 15 Russian servicemen to lose their lives.
Israel and Israel alone is to blame for this crime.
And no amount of equivocation and legalise will change this fact.
And if Russia wants to ensure the safety of its servicemen in Syria going forward, Israel’s impunity must be brought to an inglorious end.
Whether this means S-300s or even S-400s are delivered to Damascus, so be it.
Unconditional US support, and the impunity that they have come to expect after each one of these unprovoked attacks against a sovreign nation, have helped to fuel Israel’s arrogance and disdain for the life and property of others.
It was Israel that initiated this act, therefore the responsibility for what happen must be theirs and theirs alone.
They continuously boast and brag about these raids on Syria, thumping their chest in mocking defiance of international law and the intetnational community.
Now, they have overreached themselves and must be punished.
We eagerly await Russia’s decision to this effect.
Selah
All those parties that are lurking around Russian base are responsible, plain and simply. Russia should make them pay large sums of money/gold to Russian state for the equipment loss, 10 times more to families/kids, declare no-go zones (in air, on sea and ground) and shut every intruder down. Plain and simply. Respect.
I hadn’t realized until reading this article the embarrassment of Russia – with all their talk of cutting edge electronics and weaponry – they lost 15 men – and a big plane – so called ‘spy plane’ for some unknown reason
Shame on Russia for enabling this to happen to their people – Shame Shame Shame.
Why blame the victim? Blame Israel who initiated the sneak attack if you want to shame anyone.
The only victims were the poor people on the downed plane and their relatives and families not Russia that has an Agreement that allows Israel and its western partners to attack Syrian targets.
The Syria battlefield is indeed complex.
The Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah are fighting takfiris sponsored by the FUKUS, NATO, Israel, various Gulf monarchies and Turkey.
Turkey is also fighting the takfiris while at the same time arming and supporting them. Russia and their allies have agreements with Turkey about this.
FUKUS, NATO and Israel are allowed to bomb anyone in Syria as long as they do not harm Russian military.
The Syrians are allowed to fire missiles at the missiles that are heading their way but not hit the planes or ships from where the missile are fired. The Russians have an integrated air defense with Syria that ensures this.
Russia has agreements with FUKUS, NATO and Israel about the manner in which the attacks can happen.
In the past the Russians have changed the above rules of engagement only when the Russian military has suffered damage. For example, Turkey is not allowed to fly in Syrian airspace after they downed the Russian fighter.
The coming days will show what new changes will be made.
I like the idea of taking this to the ICC. And also the UN. It will get all the info out into the public arena.
The Israelis are guilty as charged, I’m sure the evidence will be rock solid.
Of course the US will veto this, but that makes them equally culpable in the court of public opinion.
This makes the next provocation and shooting down of US/Israeli/NATO jets more acceptable in PR terms.
Didn’t Russia withdraw from the corrupt Libya-Killing ICC?
The ICC and UN are a joke and cannot be trusted.
The ICC is a sock puppet of European Imperialism, which is why none of the war criminal rulers that lead European neo-colonial powers like Britain or France have faced trial.
And the UN has increasingly been subverted and compromised by the American Empire and its crime partners to aid in its covert terror war against Syria, among other crimes against peace.
How the administration of the UNO is organising the war
http://www.voltairenet.org/article202751.html
Does anyone know the location of the S-200 radar or if a multiple of arrays whether the ‘shadow ‘ effect is stll valid?
/naval-eastern-med-after-sept-17-sitrep/#comment-562458
According to Liverumap (18-09-2018):
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/time/18.09.2018
Syrian SAM batteries along the coast are most likely located at or near:
– Tartus
– Banyas
– Khememim Air Base (15km southeast of Latakia)
– Latakia proper
What I have always wondered is how do Syrian SAM batteries operate near Russian SAM batteries ?
Do the Russians control all SAMs at Khememim Air Base, while the Syrians operate the rest ?
And can’t the Russians easily knock out planes and missiles from the sky with their own SAM batteries while using “plausible deniability”, and telling the world it was the Syrians who are doing it :-) ?
Never understood why western gingers think it so important that others know they are gingers. Reminds one of, well never mind.
A minute-by-minute account of the Il-20 downing shows Israel’s culpability and either its military bosses’ lack of appreciation of relations with Moscow, or their control of commanding officers, the Russian defense ministry said.
https://www.rt.com/news/439150-russia-israel-il-20-negligence/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=push_notifications&utm_campaign=push_notifications
Always sober and rational Le Dahu confirms everybody’s suspicion: the ‘official’ story doesn’t add up. As it is the case with all large scale Zionist intel operations – think 911, think Charlie Hebdo – we will never know what exactly went down on that fateful evening of September 17th.
The Russian side, who lacks the media power to counter the Jewish Mafia’s narrative, decided early on, that in this particular set of circumstances – as long they didn’t retaliate against the downing of the IL-20 – the Mafia’s narrative would suit them actually very well, and – irony of irony – even strengthen their, the Syrian, and the Iranian positions.
Thus when Putin came out with the shockingly anti-climatic statement that ‘stuff happens…’ the potentially most critical situation in the three year of Russian’s involvement with the defense of Syria collapsed instantly, totally, with a soundless puffff…
A job well done by team Putin!
Both RT and Sputnik have preliminary articles up on the Russian MoD announced report on the zionazi attack on Russian aircrew:
Russian MoD details chronology of Il-20 downing off Syrian coast
https://www.rt.com/news/439150-russia-israel-il-20-negligence/
Nothing yet, but check the link later.
Russian MoD: Israel Violated Agreement With Russia to Prevent Incidents in Syria
https://sputniknews.com/world/201809231068261218-russia-israel-il20/
Has quite a bit of material and they are still updating.
“Israeli military either allowed criminal negligence or lacked professionalism, which resulted in the downing of Il-20,” Konashenkov said, adding that the blame for the crash fully rests with Israel.”
IE: Not with Syria.
Was watching the live feed of the MOD press conference on RT until it abruptly went down!!
Very clear in the detail of what Russia has done to placate the Israelis (including retrieving Israeli forces bodies in Syria – a telling statement) that Russia is massively pissed of.
Israel has fucked up bigly.
‘Criminal negligence’ or disregard to Russia-Israel ties: MoD details chronology of Il-20 downing
https://www.rt.com/news/439151-russia-israel-il-20-negligence/
“Once the Syrian air defenses responded to the initial strike, the Israeli jets switched on radar jamming and pulled back, apparently preparing for another attack. One of the jets then approached the Syrian coast –and the Russian plane which at that time was preparing to land– again.
The Israeli pilot must have been well aware of the fact that the Il-20 has a much larger radar cross-section than his F-16, and would become a “preferred target” for the Syrian air defense units, who use different friend-or-foe systems with the Russians, Konashenkov said. Thus, for the Syrians, the reconnaissance plane could appear as a group of Israeli jets.
“The Israeli jets saw the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 and used it as a shield against the anti-aircraft missiles, while they carried on maneuvering in the region,” Konashenkov said during the news briefing.
The actions of the Israeli fighter pilots, which led to the loss of life of 15 Russian servicemen, either lacked professionalism or were an act of criminal negligence, to say the least.
Finally, the Israeli jets carried out their maneuvers in the immediate vicinity of the Khmeimim air base, which is used both by military and civilian aircraft, including passenger planes, the ministry’s spokesman emphasized, saying that the reckless actions of the Israeli pilots could also have posed a threat to any passenger or transport aircraft that may have happened to be there at that time.
Israel ‘crossed the line of civilized relations’ with ‘ungrateful response’
Israel’s negligent behavior amounts to a flagrant violation of the very spirit of cooperation between the countries, Konashenkov stated, noting that Russia has never broken its commitment to the deconfliction agreement – it has always informed Israel about their missions in advance and has never used its air defense capabilities against the Israelis, even though their airstrikes sometimes put the Russian servicemen in danger.”
Apparently, the bs merchants israel sent to Russia to threaten or “explain” didn’t cut it.
Which begs the question- Why did the Russians allow Syria ti attack the Israeli planes?
The Russians obviously don’t want the Syrians to down any Israeli planes since the integrated air defense system could easily down the Israeli jets. At the same time they allow the Syrians to use S-200 which are least likely too hit the Israeli planes.
The Russians had a system that was too clever by half- and they have suffered for it.
This is the most telling part of the presentation:
“”We believe that the blame for the Russian Il-20 aircraft tragedy lies entirely with the Israeli Air Force,” said spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov, before revealing a detailed account of events leading to the downing of the Russian Il-20 military aircraft on September 17. The plane was shot down by the Syrian air defense units as Israeli’s F-16s effectively used it as a cover during the attack on its neighbor.
The report featured previously undisclosed radar data and details of communications between Russian and Israeli militaries, and concluded that “the military leadership of Israel either has no appreciation for the level of relations with Russia, or has no control over individual commands or commanding officers who understood that their actions would lead to tragedy.”….
The Israeli air force/military leadership are to blame and note that the Russians question who is in control of them……their ungratefulness towards everything the Russian military has done has been made very clear today – watch this space for the changes.
This is also very telling that Major Konashenkov added, as a proof of Russian good faith betrayed, how the Israelis requested the Russian military aid to rescue their fallen soldiers into ISIS territory, something the Russians did, even when suffering ISIS attack in the way….
Not less telling is the fact that Major Konashenkov dismantles absolutely the Israeli alibi on blaming Iran, by relating how the Iranians acceded to the deconfliction zone surrounding 140km the Golan Hieghts as requested by the Israelis, and thus, demonstrating all the way who is acting with bad faith in the Syrian terrain and who is doing its utmost to avoid the end of the war there.
Video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWkrGsq0UVo
Starts at 1:30
No mention of any French frigate.
Great Sitrep LeDahu.
The thing about the Israeli Dolphin is interesting. There were reports of a Dolphin attacking an SAA depot several years ago (with Popeye SLCM perhaps?); managed to dredge this up:
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Israeli-submarine-strike-hit-Syrian-arms-depot-319756
It is possible the a Dolphin was loitering near the the French frigate and fired off a Popeye towards Syria and this launch was wrongly attributed to the French ship. I agree it is very unlikely that a French Aster was launched. I’d even bet that the French didn’t even put a radar lock on the Ilyushin — they’d be crazy to do so. And as you pointed out the Auvergne has scuppered back to Cypus. The French don’t want to be associated with this particularly ugly incident because RF MoD are clearly angry and for once FUKUS are letting the Israelis do the explaining themselves.
It’s rare for RF to put the blame squarely on Israel. Quite measured language which is par for the course for RF MoD briefings but nobody who’s read the RT article can miss the RF sense of anger and betrayal: The Israeli jets saw the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 and used it as a shield against the anti-aircraft missiles, while they carried on maneuvering in the region,” Konashenkov said during the news briefing. Good to see.
[23 Sept] https://www.rt.com/news/439151-russia-israel-il-20-negligence/
Like I said earlier Israel has overextended itself. They’ve taken RF friendship for granted and even if VVP wants to soothe Israel-RF relations now (which I very much doubt) his hand may be forced by the depth of anger felt by his MOD.
Basil
Intel Chief Boasted of IAF’s ‘Precision’ Just Before Il-20 Shootdown – Reports
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201809221068254176-idf-intel-chief-on-syria-operations/
“In an interview with Haaretz take shortly before the destruction of the Russian Il-20 but published Friday, Israeli Air Force Intelligence chief Brig. Gen. Uri Oron bragged that while the Russian presence in Syria was a “challenge” for the IAF, it didn’t constrain its activities.
“Does the Russian presence constrain the IAF’s activity? It challenges us. We have to be very precise. [But] that doesn’t mean that the IAF only flies in Israeli skies,” Oron said.”
The hubris of the “wee little man”.
It seems Israel does not care a damn (would you if you had an AZE to back up your every move?):
“Tel Aviv won’t change Syrian policy despite downing of Russian Il-20 – Israeli defense minister ”
And here is a reiteration of that policy:
“The top Israeli military official stated that “nothing” has or will change in Tel Aviv’s approach to the Arab Republic, which it considers to be turning into Iran’s “base” for anti-Israeli operations.”
As is usual with Zionist lies, the truth is exactly the opposite of that statement: the Zionists were using Syria as a launching pad for their mercenary “jihadi” armies. That is precisely why Russia and Iran intervened in the first place, i.e. to prevent Syria collapsing into a Libya, a “jihadi” paradise. “Jihadi” is just a Western term for AZE proxy armies spearheaded by Western intelligence and special ops. Both Russia and Iran were the next targets for these fake jihadis.
Of course there is the possibility that this politician is spouting off for the diehards and that real Israeil policy has changed in the background. We’ll see.
#Addendum to Guest Analysis#
The French FREMM ‘Auvergne’ is only visually depicted in the latest Russian MoD briefing. No mention of it at all.
As already mentioned in the sitrep, about the range of SBU glide bombs, the MoD started that the F-16s were initially patroling at 90km and then moved closer to about 70km. Fractionally beyond were the ‘Auvergne’ was located. That means that the ‘Auvergne’ anti-air system would be well out of range for any coastal planes, as the Aster 15 is an local area defence system.
Yes no mention of the French “Auvergne”.
but if we look at the trajectories presented, the scenario you mentioned still makes sense, and the silence on this point is also compatible with this scenario.
It seems very close : https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=210&v=48aaXlYJbRo
spam image ?
It was a screenshot of this video, at 3.30 :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=210&v=48aaXlYJbRo
which shows that the F16 trajectories are really very close to the French ship.
ok i’ll use this link … other link had your image plus porn around the edge (when moused over link … site itself was ok) not sure how the porn guys did it …mod
Maybe like this it will be ok :
no same as last … maybe it the postimg site has been hacked … mod
There was no possibility of a lock on the Il-20 from that distance, 90km+ Especially given that the Il-20 had descended from FL 5000m over Idlib, on its base leg.
And yes I based tht analysis on exactly the same video.
Mods
You are doing excellent work. A big thank you from yours truly
Le Dahu, i was not talking about this.
I had in mind the possibility that the Israeli F16s, when passing near the French FREMM, fired on targets in Syria. Creating another confusion (due to the proximity with l’Auvergne) regarding the origin of the shot.
Does that seem possible to you?
Ok, now I understand your question. Not likely because as you may have seen from the Russian MoD briefing, the F-16s launched their SBU 39 further east and to the north of Latakia.
Any data / electronic parameters from a missile launch, (emissions, trajectory etc) would be different to F-16 acquisition of targets and SBU 39 launched.
There may have some confusion due to either (or combination) of ground clutter, jamming, or even decoys used to confuse operators. It is likey that after processing of data, it was determined to be spurious.
Also to consider that the Auvergne may well have fired off decoys.
Now that this much anticipated report from the Russian Ministry of Defence is out and has clearly and unequivocally shown that Israel is to blame for the downing of Russia’s Ilyushin IL-20 with 15 crew on board last week, Russia must do nothing to allow Israel to save face in anyway.
I’ve come across the comments of some, which adocate that Russia not act in a manner that causes Israel to “lose face”.
I beg you pardon?
Why should this criminal and murderous entity that shoots Palestinian kids in the face, be allowed to save their face?
Can someone please answer me on this?
It is by coddling these criminals and excusing their numerous egregious crimes over the years since 1948, that has brought us to this.
In 1967, if US Navy had issued a report like this about the Israeli attack on the USS Liberty, and America took actions to ensure that Israel was held to account for the crime, we most assuredly would not be in this situation 50 years later.
However, Lydon B Johnson and other zionist stooges of the day, absolved Israel of the crime and sought to suppress the truth about the incident.
It was important that Russia made this report public and did some and do so in a timely manner, and that it has done.
But what is even more important is that Russia take tangible action to demonstrate that the assumed impunity under which Israel operates and which made this dastardly crime possible, will hencefort no longer be tolerated.
No one is asking for Russia to nuke Israel, but its freedom of movement must be curtailed and it must understand that the next time they pull something like this, those 4 F-16 will be retrieved on wreckers.
I hope Putin dont say anything to contradict or downplay the report, or do anything that could remotely allow Israel to “save face” in the wake of this.
Sussessive US administrations extend unconditional support to Israel, and the Israelis – by their words and deeds – have zero respect for America or its citizens.
The Israelis do not respect weakness.
Russia must learn from this and act accordingly
Selah
In this instace, where the Russian MOD pointedly stated that :
“…Israel ‘crossed the line of civilized relations’ with ‘ungrateful response’…”
Putin as the Commander in Chief of Russia’s Armed Forces, must not preoccupy himself with allowing Israel to save face.
He must only concern himself with preserving Russian lives.
some uncivilised group has been stealing the cookies intended for all ,now the lid is closed where else or how else is this uncivilised group gonna get its cheap tricks? some are addicted to be uncivilised as it has given them an air of superiority and exceptionalism among the neighbours.The whole world or majority are of the opinion that this uncivilised group should not be checked in anyway at all ,as they are the ,”chosen one guarding the gates of heaven”,maybe not heaven, but certainly look like there is nothing ‘heavenly’ about this uncivilised group ,as all its action has let to million being killed in it’s honour in the MENA region,..maybe just maybe ,the tourtered souls of these dead people want the key to heaven as soon as possible,they are mad as hell and they aint putting up with anymore B.S ,they want to know for what reason their stay on earth was shortened .
They wanted to assassinate Assad, Assad was about to take the flight from Latakia base to Moscow to discuss the Idlib agreement.
source: https://dimpenews.com/2018/09/23/assad-was-the-target-of-the-attack-on-latakia-natos-israeli-partnership-attempted-to-assassinate-him-while-he-would-travel-to-russia-by-the-latakia-airport/
Russian MoD report is important. Puts the blame on Israel. Period. Now we have to see action from the political wing of Russia (i.e. Putin). After this report, you can not continue to appease. Obviously, there are some people not that happy with Putin’s appeasement policies in Kremlin and especially in the MoD. Forget about the details of how the aircraft maneuvered, at what speed French,Brit frigates were sailing etc. These are the leafs, we need to see the forest and the outcome.
The bottom line is Israel is the instigator (declared by Russian MoD report) thus Israel has to pay the price. Putin cannot play his game, nor we can say that Putin is playing a four-five-six dimensional chess game (like some Putin appeasers constantly say here in this forum). Time is up, the evidence is here. What to do next?
It is extremely simple. Russia did that before with Turkey downing the Russian plane.
The least thing to do:
1-Freeze all military, trade relationships with Israel until further notice.
2-Place gradual sanctions on Israeli firms as a starter.
3- Ask for compensation and official apology (like they did against Turkey)
More tougher options:
1-Declare no flight zone for Israeli planes
2-Warn that any violation will be responded militarily.
3-Provide immediately S300-400 to Syrian government and even Iran.
There are too many thing which can be done, but the bottom line is that something needs to be done and the ball is on the Russian court. There is no excuse for Putin who said that it was an unfortunate chain of events when this incident happened. As a serious statesman and especially as the president of a large and significant world military power, your job is to seek the interest of your people and country without appeasing the instigators. You cannot excuse Putin for how he reacted in the first place. To say that there was no evidence at that time is not an excuse either. If there was no evidence at that moment he should have just shut up. This has nothing to do with being a grand chess master or black belt judo-karate master. I hope the military and other patriotic people in Kremlin (if any left), can do the right thing for the real interest of Russia.
If the Canadian military is involved, then looking at their Twitter feed may reveal a hint or a leak about the incident. The main photo is from the bow of a Canadian ship, looking ahead at three ships in the distance, open water. Someone more knowledgeable can maybe tease out more (revealing) details.
Found the photo on Canadian Forces Instagram: “HMCS Ville de Quebec holds in the “lifeguard” position while NATO ships, Spanish ESPS Cristobal Colon (left) and Dutch HNLMS De Ruyter refuel at sea with United States Navy Ship Big Horn during Op Reassurance.” And today, PM Trudeau is hosting the PM of Spain. To talk trade, of course, what else? Royal Canadian Navy Twitter shows Canadian Navy divers in the water, while Canadian Forces Twitter shows soldiers parachuting into a smoke-filled terrain. Just in case that means they are in the danger zone, take care guys and gals, ok?
The linked tweet/ image was for illustration purposes as Big Horn left the Med on 30 Aug and is now in Plymouth, UK
Thanks, LeDahu (And thanks for the great sitrep!) On Sept. 18, Canadian Chief of Staff, Gen. Vance welcomed German Chief of Staff of the Federal Armed Forces Gen. Zorn “to discuss ways of enhancing our mutual defense interests and strengthening the NATO alliance.” Another scrap to sew into the quilt, portraying an abstract art image of a major FUBAR??
I believe I recall statements from Syrian sources that facillities were being constructed near the Russian base or within its air cover umbrella in order to use the Russian defensive capability as cover from Israeli attack. I think such facillities were the target and Russia was allowing this with the caveat that Russian resources were not threatened or attacked. The Israeli F16s were not part of the plan and their insertion led to the downing of the Russian plane. The Russians are blaming the Israelis publicly for this breach of agreement because of the loss of Russian lives. If the Israelis cannot conduct their operations in Syria without such accidents then they will be prevented from carrying out such. I believe that is the Russian position. IMO
Perhaps the next ‘accident’ in this area might involve Israeli assets – we will see, although the Russian MO usually doesn’t seem to involve simple tit-for-tat.
There is literally no evidence – other than the initial Russian MoD statement – that the French ship did anything other than be in the vicinity. In crime, you need three things: motive, opportunity, and intent. All we have is opportunity here. Intent and motive may only be inferred.
If Russia really believed the French attacked Syria or the Russian plane, they would have said so and complained to the French formally, regardless of diplomacy. That is what diplomacy is for. Simply hiding the fact makes no sense. Russia is not obligated to respond to a French attack on Syria since the French did it before and Russia did nothing. So in this case there is no motive for Russia to lie about it and not complain about it if the French really did it.
So the probable explanation is that the initial Russian report was wrong due to confusion over the radar and other technical traces – which are rarely perfect enough in a crowded sky to be sure who did what. The only source who would know for sure would be the surveillance plane since it is looking down on the ocean. Even there, there is “ground clutter”. And it’s possible that plane wasn’t looking as it prepared to land. All other land and sea tracking could have confused the Israeli missile launches with the French ship – which is likely what Israel intended.
If the Ustinov moved to cover the Israeli coastline, it’s probably because without the surveillance plane, Russia needed more coverage of the sky over Israel to keep an eye on Israeli aircraft leaving their fields.
The one minute warning is mostly meaningless since everyone would be aware of the Israeli planes – with the possible exception of the surveillance plane itself if it turned off its long-range radar preparatory to landing. The warning mostly applies to what the Israelis intended to attack, not that they were in the area. They still should have given an earlier warning, according to agreements, but in reality why would they warn Russia or Syria of their targets, especially if they were intending to attack in a Russian sensitive area. Regardless of agreements, no one gives up a tactical advantage.
” President stated that there will be ‘steps that everyone will notice.'” I don’t think he was referring to the NOTAMs. I think he was clearly referring to steps that will be taken to insure the Israelis pay the next time they try this sort of thing. As I’ve said before, at a minimum the surveillance aircraft will be escorted by fighters who will engage any aircraft who comes near them. And it’s likely the next Israeli attack will be met with Russian-manned S-300s rather than Syrian S-200s. Russia can give the credit to Syria for shooting down the Israeli aircraft and Israel won’t be able to prove otherwise.
While Russia wishes to maintain an even keel in relations with Israel, Putin will be under extreme pressure from the Russian MoD to respond to the next Israeli attack on Syria. He is likely willing to take action against Israel in so far as it doesn’t cause more trouble with either Israel or the US. So any Russian revenge will be more or less covert, not open. Putin can’t afford to do so openly without risking a US response which might undo everything Russia has achieved in Syria, not to mention risk open war with the US. So any Russian response will be as covert as possible. But we can be reasonably assured there will be a response against Israel the next time they get “clever.” And Israel knows it which is why they are putting on full-court diplomacy to try to sway Putin to limit his future response by explaining away the current “accident”.
In any event, I think we’ve learned all we’re going to learn about this incident. No one has motivation to explore it further due to geopolitical niceties. So unless someone who actually knows what happened is willing to talk publicly or sub rosa, we’re not going to know anything more than we do now.
Time to move on and see what happens the next time Israel attacks Syria. If they lose jets, then we know what Putin meant. If they don’t, then more criticism of Putin might be appropriate.
“…to insure that the Israeli pay next time…” So, there will be next time?
Why not pay this time, so there will not be next time?
I believe the Israeli position is that a unified Syrian state with effective AD capability is an unacceptable outcome of the conflict. The Russians have told Israel to calm down and live with it because the alternative is more destabilizing in the long run and they will help guarantee Israel’s security wrt Syria. Their efforts in the Golan, for instance, have been an attempt to prove this to Israel. These positions are fundamentally incompatibil and someone has to compromise. So far it isn’t clear what the outcome will be. I don’t believe the US position and objectives are in sync with Israel’s on this, but the Israelis are perfectly happy to have the Americans causing trouble and making the Russian efforts more difficult. If the US can be pushed out and Idlib pacified then Israel might compromise and agree to the Russian solution.
If there was a coordinated ‘Western’ strategy at work I think the equation would be simpler, but I don’t believe there is. Instead there are various confluences of objectives, disagreemts, subversions, etc on the Western side.
Russia has chosen a hard path and devoted considerable resources to it, material, political, and human. So far they have not been deterred by the difficulty. I blieve this is a sign of strength and clearness of purpose. Wishing them well and eventual success sufficient to continue their efforts.
So we still don’t know what the French frigate that launched missiles was up to although it seems more likely that it was cruise missiles that it launched at the port and less likely Aster surface to air. Cowardly hiding behind the coattails of the Israeli attack. Alternatively a Dolphin was hiding next to the French frigate.
There’s more to this story as purely from a military tactical viewpoint the F-16s were unnecessary and a high-risk liability both to Israel during the attack and and, as we see, later.
If the mission was simply to destroy a non-moving warehouse them multiple cruise missiles would accomplish that. Israel has Dolphin submarines with cruise missiles and airborne ones could be launched even from as far away as Israel. Skimming the sea would not alert any Syrian land-based radar until too late.
GBU39s glide bombs are hard to hit but unless launched from a stealth fighter you give the game away by having to climb to a high altitude to drop them.
There was a suggestion that President Assad was flying from Latakia and while far-fetched it would fit with the Russian commentary about a second attempt by an F-16 closer to the airport.
Bump off Assad then precipitate a full NATO attack of Syria. Crazy but then neocons & vassals are.
So far this still holds, awaiting data to invalidate it:
/naval-eastern-med-after-sept-17-sitrep/#comment-562458
To quote # 3: Israel not only anounced its attack almost with the beginning of the attack, but anounced it to be at the north of Syria (see the map) and attacked at Latakia ( see map again), which is west and not north. Thus Israel deliberately mislead the Russians, which does not correspond to the theories of “mistake”, “screwed up” etc. General Igor Konashenkov said that Russians have this recorded. He squarely put the blame on Israel and I agree with him.
Four Israeli F 16 did not leave the area even after the Russian surveillance plain was downed, they did this 40 or 50 minutes later after being specifically asked by the Russians.
The Russian commander of Il-20 had time to contact his superiors and report that the palin was in fire. Why not a single member of those 15 highly trained man did not survive? No parachutes, no ejecting? What happened?
I don’t believe the IL-20 has ejector seats and certainly not for 15. Paraxhutes? If the damage was limited to engines/wing then the cabin was still pressurised and door opening impossible. Do you know how g-forces make it impossible to jump out of a diving/spinning plane?
Difficult, not impossible. Still, what the search revealed, did they find the bodies, some bodies at least? How they died?
Why do you wish to know this kind of info? What do you hope to gain by this macabre curiosity?
Salvage and recovery operations are taking place, with the ‘Professor Muru’ and ‘Seliger’ at the scene.
It wil not be an easy task, all available resources have been put into place to ultimately gain some closure for relatives, retrieve sensitive military equipment and forensic data.
As someone who learned to fly with the military, the bail out option was not something to think about even, on a straight and steady flight path. The analysts in the cabin would have not had parachutes strapped I think. So the idea of grabbing a parachute, strapping them on, opening a pressurised door at the rear, while the plane is losing altitude – not likely.
The Russians have flown in four heavy airlift il-76MD’s to Hmeim airbase. One of these was used to flying the S-400 system currently guarding the airbase.
They have also notified an extended exercise area in the eastern Med. This runs very close to the Lebaneseand Israel coastline and extends much further south than the theoretical maximum range of the S-400 at Hmeim.
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/https/diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2684830.html
https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/diana_mihailova/78277673/1158302/1158302_900.jpg
S-300 in Syria
(In Russian) but Shoigu is reported to have confirmed.
https://iz.ru/792481/2018-09-24/shoigu-podtverdil-postavku-sirii-kompleksov-s-300
Overdue and a likely improvement in interoperability of AD systems.