Nasrallah: a War against Iran would Destroy Israel, the Saud and US Hegemony
Translation: resistancenewsunfiltered.
See the previous parts of this speech:
Resistance Axis, Arab & Muslim Peoples will Never Forsake Palestine
In the Next War, Missiles from Lebanon, Gaza, Syria & Iran will Strike Israel, Trump’s Deal of the Century Doomed to Fail
Transcript:
[…] Today, (the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia) are focusing (their hostility) on the essential point of strength of this (Resistance) Axis. This is the next point (of my speech), namely Iran. Iran is the main power (of the Resistance Axis), no doubt about it. Iran is the heart of this Axis. It is Iran who helped Iraq during the invasion of Daesh, when (the terrorists) reached the outskirts of Karbala and Baghdad. It is Iran who helped the Syrian leadership and the Syrian army during the hard times (fighting Daesh). Iran stood alongside the Resistance in Lebanon and the Resistance in Palestine, etc., etc., etc. And Iran’s (anti-imperialist and anti-Zionist) stance is clear, unshakable and decisive. That is all.
Today, all this fury against Iran…. And it is Trump, Pompeo and the others who explicitly say so, that’s not my analysis. (They say) that besieging Iran and subjecting it to sanctions and pressures will cause all this (Resistance) Axis to weaken, collapse and disappear. And they start to count our (financial) losses, awaiting the end of each month to see if Hezbollah (is still able) to pay (the wages of its members and fighters) or not, isn’t it? All eyes are on Iran.
Yesterday, what did our brothers from (the Resistance factions) in Gaza say? They said: “Our (Arab & Islamic) Community has abandoned us, but Iran (fully) supported us. Iran helped us militarily and financially.” And that’s the truth. This is why (they put all their efforts) against Iran. They exert maximum pressure on Iran.
Against Iran, we find these same regimes who, since the first day, declared their hostility towards the Islamic Republic. From the first day of triumph (of the Revolution) of Imam Khomeini (in 1979), they planned and schemed (the downfall) of the Islamic Republic. And they kept doing so until today, for 40 years. They defamed Iran, launched false accusations against Iran, have sought to isolate Iran, incited (the Arab-Muslim peoples) against Iran… One day, they were defaming Iran by designating as Majus (Zoroastrians, non-Islamic): we all remember that the war (propaganda) of Saddam [Hussein] against Iran was based on the (alleged) fight against the Persians and the Majus. Of course, he could not claim that it was a Sunni-Shiite war, as did the Saudis, because more than half of the Iraqi people is Shiite, as well as a large part of the Iraqi army. It was not possible to present their war as a Sunni-Shiite war, so he depicted them as Majus. But the world has discovered (since) that the Iranian people is not Zoroastrian (but Muslim).
They first introduced the fight (against Iran) as a struggle of the Arabs against the Persians, and later on, they developed the battle as a Sunni-Shiite war. Then they (tried to) sell us (the risk) of the (conversion of peoples) to Shiism, be it Safavid, Alawi, etc. Finally, they came to economic sanctions, up to the threats of war culminating today.
Will there be a war or not? That is the burning issue of the day. For the last weeks, (the world) has been wondering if there will be (a new war) in the region. Of course, if there is a war between the US and Iran, the whole region will change radically. I’ll talk a little about it.
Some people push (the US) into a war with (all their) strength. That is, within the US administration —for Trump says he does not want war, but I mean others—, it is clear that Bolton pushes for war as much as he can. Bolton, the liar, the cartoon character —you remember (my joke 15 years ago about his comic looks and) his (extravagant) mustache—, what did he say yesterday? He said: “Our goal is not to overthrow the Iranian regime.” But a few months ago, during a meeting with the Iranian hypocrites (Mujahedeen-e-Khalq), he said that with the Grace of God, they all would commemorate the (Persian) New Year in Tehran in 2019 (after the regime gets toppled). What shameless (lies)! We do not forget (your previous statements), especially when they date only a few months, my friend! These are not statements that are 20 years old. They are only a few months old. These turncoats changed their story yet again! They got cold feet, to speak colloquially. I’ll tell you why they backtracked.
So there are Bolton, Bin Salman, Netanyahu and (let’s just say) other Gulf (leaders pushing for war), in order not to lengthen the list of names. Such is (the situation). They all push (for war). Anyone watching the media from the Gulf would believe that Trump is working for the Arab TV channels. (These media repeated day and night) that Trump was determined to launch a war, that it was imminent and that the US warships were on their way. (If one was to believe them), Trump was just watching these Arab television channels, and executing their orders.
I’ll start with the words of His Eminence the Imam and Leader (of the Islamic Community), Sayed Khamenei, may God preserve him. He is not a soothsayer. He is a man who has lead this Community for 30 years (according to the doctrine of Wilayat al-faqih, he is the Supreme Leader of Iran and of all Muslims worldwide), and he knows all the strategic data, all the details, all the facts and all the equations of strengths and weaknesses. And he (plainly) said that there would be no war. Neither war nor negotiations (with the US). The fact that there are no negotiations is a decision (entirely) in the hands of the Iranians (who refuse any negotiations before the end of the sanctions, despite US insistence on a meeting without preconditions). But the fact that there is no war involves everyone (the US and their allies on the one hand, Iran and its allies on the other hand). Let’s talk about the improbability of a war.
Why does (Sayed Khamenei assert that) there will be no war? Here is our analysis (of the situation). I do not pretend to present the actual reasons that made His Eminence Sayyed Khamenei say this, but our own analysis (Hezbollah’s).
First, it is the power of Iran (that prevents the possibility of a war). If there is no war, this is not due to anyone’s benevolence or generosity. If Iran was weak, the war would have taken place long ago. The (exceptional) level of hatred, resentment, plot and conspiracy of the Arab countries, the Gulf countries, the United States, Israel and the Zionists against Iran would have already lead to a war a long time ago if Iran had been weak. It is because Iran is strong and has (huge) capabilities, through its people, its armed forces, its regime, its Leader, its religious authorities and scholars, by its general situation and its specificities, and because firstly and lastly, Iran puts its trust in God, believes in Him and in His promise, because Iran is powerful, and that’s why Iran is feared by all. Iran is feared and respected. That is the first point (which explains the improbability of a war).
Trump does not face a regime that wouldn’t hold one or two weeks or whose planes would crash (without the United States, unlike what he said about Saudi Arabia), we speak of a true power. That’s the first point. This is the first reason (of the improbability of a war).
The second reason —and (I wish) that the whole world listens my words carefully— is that Mr. Trump, his administration and his intelligence services know very well that a war against Iran would not remain limited to the borders of Iran! A war against Iran would set fire to the whole region!
[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]
The whole region will be engulfed in (the) flames (of war)! And all US forces and US interests in the region will be annihilated! And all those who conspired and plotted (against Iran) will pay the price, and primarily Israel and the Saud!
[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]
And Trump knows that when the region goes up in flames… He doesn’t care about the (tens of thousands of) deaths. I’m talking about what matters to him! When the region goes up in flames, the price of oil will reach $200, $300 or even $400, and he will lose the (2020 presidential) elections. Such is the balance of power.
When His Eminence the Leader says that there will be no war, (it means that) Iran won’t initiate a war against anybody, but if the US wants to initiate this war, they must take into account all this data in their calculations, namely the extent of human and material losses that the US will suffer if they engage in such a war. And that’s what prevents the war from occurring.
As for those wretched (Saud), they want Trump to come fight in their defense, to serve their hatreds and resentments… Hey, uncle, Trump does not work for you, you are the ones at his service! You are the ones under his thumb! It is you who are the instruments of his project, and not the opposite! (He is not serving) your ambition and your hatred! His calculations are different from yours! He counts only in millions, billions, dollars, oil… Such are his calculations, very different from yours!
Now let us make things more relaxed. Let us assume that the United States launch a war against Iran. And let’s imagine that Iran doesn’t succeed in defeating this attack, and that God forbid, the United States emerge victorious and defeat Iran. How could Trump extract the remaining billions of dollars from the Gulf countries (once the alleged Iranian threat is no more)? How? Trump uses and exploits everything in an economic and financial purpose. Iran is powerful, and Trump has no interest in the Gulf countries agreeing, talking with Iran or concluding nonaggression pacts with Iran. He has no interest in that. His interest is to continue to ensure that the Gulf countries continue to be afraid of Iran so that he can milk, milk and milk them again (of all their billions)… until the very last drop! Isn’t it ? If Trump launches this war, what will be the logic, what will be the need to sell all these missiles, all these warplanes, all these tanks, to send all these destroyers (to the Persian Gulf), to have all these bases in the region, etc. All this won’t make sense anymore. How stupid, how stupid (they are)! Such imbecility! Praise be to God !
Anyway, Trump’s priority is an economic war against Iran. And he wages an economic war against China, and even against Venezuela, which is not Iran, but his priority is still the economic war. Even against North Korea, his priority is economic warfare. Anyway, I want to mention strong indications that the probability of war has receded.
First, Trump himself, who is the decision maker, said on television that he does not want military confrontation with Iran, and that their war against Iran was economical because a military war would lead to more financial and human losses. And he categorically refuted the existence of a plan to send 120,000 American soldiers and officers in the region, and the (alleged) 120,000 soldiers have become 5,000, the 5,000 became 1,500, the 1,500 became 900, and they (ended up simply) extending the mission of the 600 US soldiers that were already present here. These are undeniable facts, isnt it?
Basically, my brothers and sisters, Trump wants to leave the region, and he insisted to leave Syria. But immediately, the CIA, the Pentagon, Congress, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE made a fuss, and all told him (in unison) that if he left Syria, the UAE and Saudi Arabia would go immediately to Damascus (to renew their relations with the regime), Damascus would come back in the Arab world, and it would strengthen Iran. So he (gave in to these pressures) and agreed to leave 200 troops in Syria. […]
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“Any amount counts, because a little money here and there, it’s like drops of water that can become rivers, seas or oceans…” Hassan Nasrallah
Good analysis by Nasrallah. If the US flies off into some fifth dimensional lunacy to start a shooting war with Iran then the only positive from the immense suffering it has caused in the region will be the terminal blow back on the demented US Empire.
‘…War against Iran would not remain limited to the borders of Iran! A war against Iran would set fire to the whole region!’
War against Iran will inflame the whole world – including the White House – and President Trump must follow his instincts against pressures leading to that conflagration.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Did I read this correctly? Did Nasrallah say that Hegemon would not want to actually defeat Iran because if it did, then the arms market would dry up?
If true, that’s hilarious. Insightful, penetrating and sanguine, but mostly hilarious.
@ James
Lol it is funny when you think about it. Their purely materialistic view of the world, has handcuffed them.
Nasrallah was probably making a joke.
The US can not “defeat Iran” – because Iran will never surrender. The US can bomb Iran’s infrastructure “into the Stone Age” over many months or years or bombing. But that won’t cause a “defeat.”
Iran also can’t be occupied, it’s too big and the US doesn’t have the troops to do it. But that doesn’t mean the US can’t “invade” Iran or put troops inside Iran in an attempt to defeat Iran’s conventional military. That effort would fail, but it would simply mean another long-term “occupation” of a portion of Iran while under military and guerrilla attack. And the US has been doing the exact same thing for the last 18 years in Afghanistan. So who says the US won’t attempt the same thing in Iran? How many hundreds of billions of dollars has the US wasted on that effort – while shoving those taxpayer dollars to the US military-industrial complex? So why won’t the US do the same in Iran?
Nasrallah needs to understand that the US is perfectly happy to spend hundreds of billions on unnecessary wars. And that since Iran can’t be defeated, but also can’t actually “win”, and neither can the US, the Iran war can go on for decades just like Afghanistan – and everyone except Iran and the US taxpayer will profit accordingly.
Well Richard, you seem to have missed the entire point of the speach. comparing the situation in Afghanistan with Iran is so wrong in so many ways, it is not even funny. Almost two decades ago Iran acquired the license to produced 70 000 RPGs. Imagine if Iran had nthing else, not even a bullet. Do you understand, what 70 000 RPGs can do to an army?
The usa army is an all purpose army. But our armed forces have been training for one ting only; a war with the usa army! the americans have no idea, what kind of resistance they will meet. Our armed forces are ideological men, for whom death is the greatest honor in life! They are not going to give up faced with some american new toy!
I promise you, that when the first hour of an attack on Iran is counted down, the american losses will be in the 5 digits.
You are missing one thing,what defeats the US is the population, when they see thousands of US Soldiers coming home in boxes they turn against those Criminals who Govern them,i fear thats what it will take.
I do think he was being facetious, and not a little ironic. Of course Iran under the Shah was a vast market for the US MIC death-merchants. And it would be again under a New Shah. If only for keeping its own people under the knout, and threatening the OBOR scheme, and Russia and China..
The US/Israeli scheme has failed in the middle east, God willing. These arrogant fools won’t see it though, they will continue to press on foolishly. All that is remaining is the final nail in the coffin. They are now stuck at an impasse. They can’t go to war with Iran and its various allies, currently, because it would threaten to destroy everything they worked so hard for in the middle east. The iranians and their allies have gotten to the point of mutual assured destruction, in conventional terms. If they don’t go to war, the Iranians and their allies will continue to go from one position of strength to another. So its too late for the US and its allies (mainly Israel, Saudi, and other gulf kingdoms) to do anything that doesn’t amount to a monumental catastrophe for them. The equation should be clear to any person of clear vision. The anglo zionists, and wahhabis lack clear vision.
Israel is nothing but a hostage in the middle east. So are the emirates and the Saud clan. The same can be said for the US military bases sprinkled through the middle east. The tables have turned, what was once a huge thorn in the eyes of the people confronting the US and Israel, is now seen as a golden opportunity, to change the entire fate of the region. I would expect hizbulla to have some of the Iranian made air defense systems. The various resistance movements work day and night to maximize their opportunities for the eventual confrontation with any member of the US/Israeli/wahhabi alliance. Case in point would be the besieged people of Gaza. Who in a few years went from have having rockets the size of a soda bottle. To now possessing missiles weighing hundreds of pounds, that reach deep into the stolen lands. If that is the rate of advancement for the besieged Gazans, what do you think is going on with the rest of the axis? Israel and the US have lost their shroud of invincibility forever. Dont get me wrong, they can still cause massive damage, but their are many who are willing to confront, and put an end to the decades/centuries of crime.
Everything that has happened and will happen has been divinely revealed to the faithful.
“Except those who are connected with a people between whom and you there is a pact, or those who come to you, while their hearts shrink from fighting you or fighting their own people. And if Allah had so pleased, He would have given them power over you, then they would have surely fought you. So, if they keep aloof from you and fight you not, and make you an offer of peace, then remember that Allah has allowed you no way of aggression against them.”
“You will find others who desire to be secure from you and to be secure from their own people. Whenever they are made to revert to hostility, they fall headlong into it. Therefore, if they do not keep aloof from you nor offer you peace nor restrain their hands, then seize them and kill them, wherever you find them. Against these We have given you clear authority.” (AN-NISA’ 4:91 – 92 Holy Quran)
” For he is the minister of God to thee for good. But if thou do that which is evil, be afraid; for he beareth not the sword in vain: for he is the minister of God, a revenger to execute wrath upon him that doeth evil.” (Romans 13:4 KJV 1611)
” O God, pass not over my praise in silence; for the mouth of the sinner and the mouth of the crafty man have been opened against me: they have spoken against me with a crafty tongue. And they have compassed me with words of hatred; and fought against me without a cause. 4 Instead of loving me, they falsely accused me: but I continued to pray. And they rewarded me evil for good, and hatred for my love.
Set thou a sinner against him; and let the devil stand at his right hand. When he is judged, let him go forth condemned: and let his prayer become sin. Let his days be few: and let another take his office of overseer. Let his children be orphans, and his wife a widow. Let his children wander without a dwelling-place, and beg: let them be cast out of their habitations. Let his creditor exact all that belongs to him: and let strangers spoil his labours. Let him have no helper; neither let there be any one to have compassion on his fatherless children. Let his children be given up to utter destruction: in one generation let his name be blotted out. Let the iniquity of his fathers be remembered before the Lord; and let not the sin of his mother be blotted out. Let them be before the Lord continually; and let their memorial be blotted out from the earth.” (Psalm 109 1:15)
And that is amongst the reason, why The Islamic Republic will not start a war!
Funny though, our enemies are good at cut and pasting!
With regards
Unfortunately, since Nasrallah is usually right in his analyses, in this case he gets almost everything wrong.
Yes, Iran is much stronger than Iraq. And yes, the US can not occupy Iran or destroy its regime. He’s right on all that.
Where he is wrong is forgetting that while the US economy in general – in fact, the world economy – will be devastated by the war, the US military-industrial complex will profit. The oil companies will profit from $200/barrel oil. The neocons will profit as they have after the disaster that was Afghanistan and Iraq.
Now as to Israel being destroyed. Nasrallah is counting on Hezbollah’s missile arsenal being to keep Israel’s population in bomb shelters 24×7 – which it can do. That will destroy Israel’s economy. And if Hezbollah can keep firing those missiles long enough, they can destroy a lot of Israeli infrastructure (assuming their new missiles are accurate enough.)
But there is a problem for that scenario: the US. What if Israel gets the direct military support of the US in assisting Israel in attacking Lebanon *before* the Iran war starts? What if the US sends 10-20,000 troops to assist Israel’s 20,000 troops in rooting out Hezbollah forces? What if the US uses its B-52 bombers to dig twenty-foot-deep craters across wide areas of Southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, as they did effectively in Vietnam against the Viet Cong, to destroy Hezbollah bunkers and missile caches?
I’m not saying that the US and Israel can destroy Hezbollah. But with the aid of the US, Israel might be able to degrade Hezbollah sufficiently that in the event of an Iran war Israel will *not* be destroyed. After all, in an Iran war, Iran will reserve most of its long-range missiles for use against the US and Saudi Arabia. They won’t fire enough missiles at Israel to “destroy Israel” because Iran doesn’t that many long-range missiles that they can afford to waste them against Israel when there are so many US targets in the region that strategically and tactically have to be hit.
Now let’s discuss Nasrallah’s analysis of Trump and the US 2020 election. If Trump were to unilaterally start a war with Iran, yes, he would lose the election. Of course, whoever got elected would still prosecute the war, since all the Democrats except Tulsi Gabbard are in favor of pressuring Iran and/or supporting Israel. So how would that benefit Iran? And Gabbard has almost no chance because she has no big money behind her, so the Democrats won’t nominate her.
Now consider another scenario. What if Trump joins Israel in attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon? Hezbollah is considered a “terrorist group” in the US, both by Trump and likely by his base, and certainly by Congress. Even Tulsi Habbard supports fighting terrorism, although I don’t know what her position on Hezbollah is. She dodged that question during the first Democrat debate. But we know Congress will support the US getting involved since they are all owned and operated by their Israel First campaign donors.
So Trump can spin direct US involvement in a new Israeli war on Hezbollah as “saving Israel from terrorists.” This will play well with his base and with Congress and even with most of the US electorate since none of them understand that Hezbollah is a national resistance group, not a “terrorist” group like Al Qaeda. So Trump can be convinced by the neocons around him both that he needs to help Israel and that he will get an election benefit from doing so.
And once Trump is on board, and the war on Hezbollah is prosecuted to one outcome or another, then it doesn’t matter whether Trump gets re-elected or not. If he’s re-elected, and Hezbollah has been degraded sufficiently, then the neocons and Israel can foment their war with Iran and force Trump to go along with it. If a new President is elected, they can do the same thing. Gabbard won’t be the nominee, and it’s likely even Bernie Sanders can be persuaded to attack Iran, certainly if a false flag provocation gives him cover.
So Nasrallah is leaving out several possibilities here by dismissing the chances of war with Iran out of hand. We have the same perfect storm of neocons, military-industrial complex, oil companies and Israel wanting a war with Iran that we had before the Iraq war. And apparently none of them care that the Iraq war and Afghanistan have been a disaster for everyone except themselves. So why should we assume they won’t prosecute the Iran war? Just because Iran is bigger? But none of them will pay any price despite the war being bigger. Instead, this just means their profits will be bigger. So what motivation do any of them have not to start it?
The only motivation holding the US and Israel back from the Iran war has been the threat of Hezbollah to the Israeli economy. Israel now knows since 2006 that it can’t destroy Hezbollah itself. But now they have a US President who is such a buffoon that he can be led by the nose to join Israel in doing so. It may not be certain that even US aid can help Israel degrade Hezbollah – but it is likely that Israel can benefit from such a war, and in any event, if Israel wants a war with Iran that the US will fight for it, Israel has no choice but to try to remove Hezbollah.
Nasrallah needs to consider the possibilities. We could be facing a new “summer war” between Israel and the US and Hezbollah either this summer or next summer.
I read just the other day an article in an Israeli paper which said Netanyahu is spreading the rumor that he wants the upcoming Israel elections postponed because of “concern” over an “upcoming security incident.” No one knows whether he means an operation against Hamas in Gaza, or Iran, or Hezbollah. I think it’s very likely that he intends to start a new war with Hezbollah – and get Trump’s direct military support in that war.
Your analysis is poignant. Israel would want to weaken the small fish closest to it’s borders before it lets the US do the dirty work of going after the big fish (Iran). Another reason to postpone the Israeli election to September is if Bibi can get a regional war going in the ME posing himself to be the saviour of Israel, then perhaps the jury in his corruption charges will be lenient on him…or, cancel the elections under war powers act if the war extends beyond this summer.
You seem to have forgotten that the Vietnamese won, and that, on the first sortie by the B-52s, the missiles will commence raining down on Israel.
The fact that the Vietnamese won is irrelevant to the effectiveness of the B-52 strikes on the targets they hit. There were other strategic considerations involved than air power in the Vietnam war.
Your is the sort of surface level comment that doesn’t even come close to dealing with the issue involved.
As for “missiles raining down on Israel”, Hezbollah has the “capability” to fire 6,500 missiles a day – *if* and *only if* they have that many launchers and that they can move, set up and fire those missiles at a given pace while under fire. There is such a thing as logistics. Any military expert here will tell you that figure is based on how many missiles Hezbollah has in total and how many might be fired at the maximum over thirty or sixty or ninety days based on whose estimates you believe.
That is not how wars are fought. Hezbollah might be able to fire X number per hour every 24 hours. While that may be enough, as I said, to keep the Israeli population in bomb shelters 24×7, it will do nothing to prevent those B-52 raids.
So the question boils down to how many sorties the B-52s can make every 24 hours, and how much bomb tonnage they can drop, and how many bunkers and missiles caches they actually hit, and thus in total how much degradation of Hezbollah’s capabilities they can achieve over what course of time that the war actually lasts.
While at the same time, the suggested 10-20,000 US troops and probably 15,000 or more Israeli troops are rooting around in Southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley engaging those Hezbollah troops who are the ones who should be spending their time firing those missiles. If they are busy shooting at US and Israeli troops or hiding, they are not firing missiles.
So again, it’s not just a question of Hezbollah ignoring those B-52 strikes and 25,000 or more enemy forces and firing missiles willy-nilly at Israel.
Also, again, I’m not saying that either the US or Israel can defeat Hezbollah or destroy Hezbollah. What the intent of this war would be is to *degrade* Hezbollah’s ability to be an effective actor during the following Iran war. How effective that will be is *unknown* at this time until the attempt is made – and therefore your confidence that Hezbollah will be able to withstand such an attack is misplaced. What is clear is that Israel *has to* make the attempt if they want to be able to withstand an Iran war in which Hezbollah *is* an effective actor.
Hopefully this clarifies things for you.
Well, what if Hezbollah has anti-aircraft missiles? The Vietnamese shot down quite a few B52s with more primitive technology forty plus years ago. What if Hezbollah is quite prepared to rapid fire missiles against Israel? What if their bunkers are now hundreds of feet deep? What happens to Israeli ‘morale’ when the untermenschen hit back, hard? And the Israeli Death Force could not defeat Hezbollah’s reserve troops in 2006, and now they are battle-hardened from years of fighting and defeating the USA and Israel’s proxy jihadist butchers in Syria. Once the death-toll begins to rise, Yankee martial valour might take quite a hit.
The US still controls the valuable oil fields (with only a handful of troops and hardware) and nobody seems to be able to get them out. I wouldn’t call that a defeat but more like exactly what the US desired.
To focus on one particular point in your commentary:
“As for “missiles raining down on Israel”, Hezbollah has the “capability” to fire 6,500 missiles a day – *if* and *only if* they have that many launchers and that they can move, set up and fire those missiles at a given pace while under fire”
This is one of the key characteristics of Hezbollahs tactical approach: The conventional military thinker thinks in terms of supply lines and logistics. He believes the 4th generation guerrila movement “moves things around” in cumbersome transport routes under fire.
Not so. Hezbollah relies on already being in place and having what you need around you to fight. This is why attempts to destroy their supply lines with overwhelming air power will meet with surprise when found to be ineffective.
Hezbollah supply lines are secondary to widely disyributed standalone bases. Supply networks are deep and organic. Supply caches are distributed and rooted in place. Supply networks are stealthy and developed with secrecy in mind.
I have misplaced it, but a decade or so ago, when Peak Oil was forecast to be a peak and not a plateau maintained through fracking, which itself is financially viable only through an ongoing Ponzi scheme, there was a paper that discussed the contingency plans various defense departments worldwide had in place to fuel their war machines if and when there was literally inadequate fuel for their war machines.
In other words, there has to be enough gas (petrol) at the gas station to make the vehicles move.
I’m aware that aircraft carriers and submarines are nuclear powered, but other vessels, aircraft and land vehicles are not.
If Hegemon tried to prosecute a war that created a massive reduction in gasoline available for day to day activities amongst my entitled neighbors, there would be unrest. If deliveries to grocery stores were to be curtailed, after three days they would be empty and after three more Hegemon would be dealing with 300,000,000 seriously disgruntled citizens.
A war to subdue Iran, Hezbollah and to retake that upstart Syria from Assad would have to be quick and decisive.
How’s that cakewalk going?
On the other hand, a war of attrition isn’t going so well either. Those upstart nations China, Russia, and Iran are becoming strong in spite of sanctions. European nations have installed an exchange that will allow them to purchase Iranian oil. It’s called Instex and that’s French for “up yours.” Pardon my French.
The clock is ticking. Hegemon and other nefarious players need an increasing supply of petrol to fuel an increasing economy b/c the debt based dollar does not/can not handle contraction, fracking can’t produce funny fuel for an extended period of time due to problems with EROEI and other uncomfortable realities, and the dollar may fall spontaneously just from the complexity of the debt structure.
All in all, not a pretty picture, but a veritable Rembrandt compared to what comes next.
Cheer up, only five more days until Friday!
What’s happening on Friday?!?
An indecisive war in the Middle East that puts fuel prices through the roof would trigger widespread insurrection in Europe and, eventually, in the USA, too. The USA is a house of cards just needing a good shove to bring the whole Ponzi scheme of Ponzi schemes down. As the Delphic oracle said, ‘If you attack Persia, a great Empire will fall’.
What makes you think that attacking Lebanon won’t result in a general war in which all US bases in the Middle East will be attacked? And the oil stopped.
What makes you think that Russia will just stand aside and not actively support Iran and Lebanon and shoot down the B52’s?
The Saudis, at great expense and after many years of work, built pipelines to cross their desert to the Red Sea. They were so smart that they thought that would solve the Staits of Hormuz threat.
The problem is that these pipelines have intermittent pumping stations. These pumping stations are ideal targets for accurate ballistic missiles. Once a single pumping station is destroyed, the oil can no longer be sent West. Furthermore, to rebuild a pumping station takes many months of work – all of which can be destroyed by another ballistic missile.
Look at the havoc a single puny drone did to this pipeline. The Saudis must be shitting in their pants.
“Saudi Arabia says its oil pipeline was hit by drones”
https://www.apnews.com/63d729241e0645539dad32f57de7bc95
“What makes you think that Russia will just stand aside and not actively support Iran and Lebanon and shoot down the B52’s? ”
Because Putin is unlikely to start WWIII over Lebanon – which should be obvious to anyone with a brain.
As for what Russia and China will do if Trump eventually starts a war with Iran, no one knows the answer to that, either. I would expect both countries to support Iran in the UNSC, diplomatically, and perhaps by establishing supply routes of military equipment as requested by Iran.
I do not expect either country to start WWIII by directly engaging US forces in the region.
Now if an Iran war should extend into Syria, Russia would have some hard choices to make, since a US or Israeli full-scale attack on Syria would undo all that Russia has accomplished over the last few years. But I suspect that will not occur because once an Iran war starts, Israel will have no need and probably no desire to start a full-scale war against Syria, given the threat of Russia getting involved. It’s possible, but I doubt it.
The question would be what will the US do vis-a-vis Syria once an Iran war starts. Or would the US extend a war in Lebanon into Syria. I think the US, like Israel, will be too busy with Iran to bother with Syria in an Iran war. The might extend a war against Hezbollah into Syria, targeting any Hezbollah forces still present in Syria at this time. I suspect Russia would do little or nothing in that event. If Russia won’t start WWIII over Lebanon, they won’t start it over US airstrikes against Hezbollah inside Syria.
Finally, I said nothing about what happens if the oil stops. I fully expect the oil to stop. So what? The oil companies make record profits.
I also do not expect Iran to launch a full-scale war just because Israel attacks Hezbollah, Iran did not do that in 2006 and they are unlikely to do it now. Iran is not stupid, and will do nothing to *invite* a full-scale US war on it.
It’s fortunate that some of the commenters here don’t run countries, or the world would be destroyed by now.
Why is it that everytime its possible Russia may take direct action against US aggression its they who will be starting WW3? its never the US.
One point is once the North Vietnamese built an integrated air defence system the US lost thousands of aircraft,including B-52s,they would lose many aircraft shot down if they tried that stunt with Iran.
Long live Iran, Hezbollah and true people who stand against the Anglo-Zionist-Empire! May the victory be upon them all.
I do hope, that I am one of them. So on behalf of all of us: thank you! And may there be many many many more others like you!
With regards
@Richard Steven Hack on June 30, 2019 · at 5:00 pm EST/EDT
Dream on.
Where [Nasrallah] is wrong is forgetting that while the US economy in general – in fact, the world economy – will be devastated by the war, the US military-industrial complex will profit.
What does the US military industrial complex absolutely need? Yes, the US economy — which as even you admit will be devastated by a war against Iran. It will not be a short war, and there is no way a devastated US economy can sustain a long fight.
What if Israel gets the direct military support of the US in assisting Israel in attacking Lebanon *before* the Iran war starts? What if the US sends 10-20,000 troops to assist Israel’s 20,000 troops in rooting out Hezbollah forces?
How do 20,000 troops get to Lebanon? The only way I can see is by ship, and I doubt those ships would survive if Lebanan has A2/AD. Russia’s bases in nearby Syria almost certainly have A2/AD.
If Trump were to unilaterally start a war with Iran, yes, he would lose the election.
So why would Trump attack Iran, knowing that to do so would lose him the re-election? If there is one thing we know for sure about him, it’s that he really, really hates to lose.
Why should Americans die for Israel? The costs in blood and treasure are obvious. Where are the benefits for the US?
Pence, Pompeo and the other fundamentalist psychopaths get their End Times wet with blood dreams.
As long as the US taxpayer pays his taxes, a “devastated” US economy will still support the military-industrial complex.
A war with Lebanon is not going to last ten years. Hezbollah does not have that many trained troops. If the goal is merely to degrade Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, I would expect that aim to either be achieved or not clearly within a matter of a few months at most. A war with Lebanon will not “devastate” the US economy.
A war with Iran may well cause problems for the US economy in various terms. But economies don’t “collapse” in war unless 1) there is hyperinflation, as in Germany in WWI, or 2) the country involved is actually destroyed militarily as in German in WWI and WWII. Neither is likely to happen to the US in an Iran war – and will absolutely not happen in a war with Hezbollah.
If the US and Israel attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, there will be no serious problem getting troops there. The US has probably 4,000 or more Marines on ships associated with whichever fleet is currently in the Med. Air lifts can bring in thousands more in a matter of days. Any force in Lebanon which tries to shoot down a US plane will get a B-52 raid on its area in a matter of hours.
Russia is not going to shoot down US planes over Lebanon or over Syria. Russia is not going to start WWIII over Lebanon. Get a clue.
As for Trump “losing the election”, there is no proof he would lose over Lebanon. What I said was that he can start a war against Hezbollah and actually spin it in his favor. Then *after* the 2020 elections – when he is no longer able to run for President – and may not even win in 2020 regardless – *then* the Iran war can be started, once Israel believes it can handle whatever capability Hezbollah has left.
Who the hell said American should die for Israel? I didn’t. Trump, Netanyahu, and Pompeo seem to think so. That’s my point.
This reminds me of the Israeli newspapers that declared that the Zionazi aggression against Lebanon in 2006 was ‘..the best prepared war in Israel’s history’. The Israeli Death Forces even gave the Pentagon a Power Point presentation on how things would go. Pity Hezbollah didn’t read the script.
I’m hearing rumours that the little tribe at the east end of the Great Sea are at it again, launching a huge attack against Syria overnight into Monday morning. Perhaps they intend to use the unchosen people to antagonize, attack and bait Iran to the point that D.C. also attacks directly to protect ‘their interests’.
We have to consider possibilities outside of logic to anticipate what may transpire. Logic is not what drives people like Pence, Pompeo, Bolton or even Trump.
Especially after the recent trilateral meeting Russia Defence minister Israel and USA….revenge against Syria and Iran as Russia stood up for Iran…. ot is getting nasty folks no matter how patient Russia attempts to be with Israel……Israel serves back s**t against Russia and who she believes in with honest relationships..
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7200483/Irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-passes-300-kg-limit-set-nuclear-deal.html
Israel “says” the limit is passed and asks(demands ?)Europe puts sanctions on Iran……
will rhey obey?
Of course they will obey. Anything else would be ‘antisemitic’.
@Richard Steven Hack on July 01, 2019 · at 5:15 pm EST/EDT
Dream on, neocon.
As long as the US taxpayer pays his taxes, a “devastated” US economy will still support the military-industrial complex.
There is already no support for a war against Lebanon. Whatever support exists or can be drummed up by the lying neocon media will vanish when soldiers start returning in body bags. (You think the Lebanese won’t defend themselves?)
A war with Lebanon is not going to last ten years.
Any war with Lebanon will expand. If there is an attempt to interdict the Hezbollah supply lines, which originate in Iran, Iran will be drawn in.
As even you anticipate, the US economy would be “devastated”, and that would not be likely if the war were limited to Lebanon. Thus even you were thinking of Iran — and I would not be surprised that an attack on Lebanon was the sneaky neocon way to start a war against the Persians. Such a war would indeed last a long time; the Iraq-Iran war lasted eight years, and the next war will be worse, far worse.
The invasion of Iraq cost three trillion dollars — at least. A war against Iran would cost far more, in blood and treasure, and would devastate the US economy, as you admitted. How could a crashing US economy sustain enormous drains for an unnecessary war so far from home?
Who the hell said American should die for Israel?
No American deaths, eh? The lying neocons were saying much the same about Iraq — that it would be a cakewalk.
The fundamental question is, why should Americans fight (and die) for Israel? What could possibly compensate the US for the many deaths of its young people and the $trillions it would lose?
Russia Decided to Deliver S-400 Missile System to Iran The relationship between Iran and America stand on the worst stage because both of countries relationship is not good between them America continuously wants to Iran that not increase the source to generate Uranium for develop Nuclear weapons, But the Iran response is not in America favour, on the other side Russia also give support to Iran that disagree those instruction that America forced to Iran work for it
The relation ship between Russia and Iran is good while wit America is not good. Russia continuously give support to Iran against any strict step that is taken by President Trump. and now Russia Decided to Deliver S-400 Missile System to Iran. Russia took a bold step and they can deliver S-400 Missile system to anyone in upcoming days
Defense Industry is only a part of the picture. An important part is the US Treasuries staying as the sole safe-haven asset of choice. Foreign holdings are now more than 6 Trillion dollars. When things go bad, serious money always goes to US treasuries. There is no viable competition now and US has done a pretty good job of keeping it that way.
Demand for US Treasuries for safety and liquidity purposes gives US a “free” seigniorage benefit of nearly 0.25% of GDP! Not to mention the ability to finance spending at incredibly low rates.
In the presence of decline only way to keep this safe haven status is to keep the rest of the world less safe. Cue a strict no no to any Germany-Russia hugging. Volatility is good for Uncle Sam. At some level, whether a war is won or lost does not matter. As long as there is conflict, US benefits both ways.