So, it appears that Pelosi landed in Taiwan. This is a HUGE victory for the invincible USA and China with all its hollow threats has now lost face. That is how those evil commies are – they only understand the language of force, and when faced with the united forces of democracy they cave.
Right?
Right?!
Well……
Yes, if your expertise in international relation, military matters and China (or Russia) come from reading Tom Clancy’s books, then yes.
But there is another way to look at this:
First, in objective terms, this visit is a pure provocation with no practical effects whatsoever. Pelosi is as much a old teleprompter reading hag as President Brandon. Whatever real dealings the USA and Taiwan had to discuss, they would have done that either remotely or by arranging a meeting between people capable of thinking.
Second, just like Russia many times in the past, the Chinese drew a red line and then let the US cross it. Being the narcissistic civilization that it is, the West only saw this as a sign of “weakness”, “indecisiveness” or even “naivete”. What these folks fail to even think about is this: how do you feel most Chinese will react both to the visit and to the lack of Chinese reaction (so far!)? They will get mad and express their frustrations. Now look at it from the Chinese government’s point of view, rather then spending billions on anti-US propaganda they, instead, let the US humiliate China and thereby solidifying the Chinese population for the day when the real confrontation will take place.
[Sidebar: there is a direct connection between years of Kremlin’s rather weak and mostly verbal protests and the “sudden” appearance of the Russian ultimatum to the West followed by the SMO: the Kremlin literally “cooked” its own public opinion to the point were IT *demanded* strong action. Far from alienating or frightening most Russians, the SMO came as a huge relief to them: “we are FINALLY putting the foot down and taking real action”. That would not have been possible before 2018. Those in the West who saw Putin’s “indecisiveness” simply don’t understand the Russian mindset anymore than they understand the Chinese one. Simply put: you cannot prepare for war without preparing your own population for it! That is what Tom Clancy does to the brains of those reading him]
Third, let me ask you a simple question: who decided on the timing of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan? The answer is obvious, it was the leaders of the USA. And you can bet that they had everything carefully lined up to make that visit happen in the best of possible circumstances. Now, a BASIC principle of warfare is that you do NOT let your enemy chose the time and place of the battle. Yes, yes, yes, in the western culture any “affront” (real or perceived) demands an immediate reaction. But the Chinese have been at this for many millennia, not just 200 years, and they know better and you can be sure that THEY, not the USA, will chose the time, place and mode of retaliation.
In sum, the woke-soaking narcissists who run the USA can celebrate how they chose to show “them Chinese commies” who is boss. Just like they did with Russia between 1991 and 2021. And then, when the Russians decided to act, Uncle Shmuel was caught totally off-guard and clueless as to who to deal with this sudden and direct threat.
Last but not least. That kind of imperial arrogance is something which not only impact (the already pretty angry Chinese population), it also infuriates all of Zone B, thereby creating the conditions for more defeats for the USA in Asia, Africa, the Indian Subcontinent, Central Asia and Latin America.
Most US Americans have absolutely no idea how offensive their condescending arrogance, constant flag waving, talks about their messianic mission for mankind and general narcissism is offensive to the rest of the planet. But when you look objectively at the endless list of US failures pretty much anywhere on the planet, you can tell that there is something deep going on here. For some reason, the “Yankees go home” thing seems to be very contagious.
I think that Nancy Pelosi deserves our profound gratitude. She should get at least two medals:
- One from the CP of China in gratitude for her endless efforts to rally the people of China around their government and
- One from Russia, for her endless efforts into solidifying the Russian-Chinese alliance.
Truth be told, between Bliken and Pelosi the national security interests of China and Russia are in good hands :-)
Andrei
You nail it. In my opinion, the biggest gift the collective West has given to Russia, since the start of the SMO in Ukraine, is uniting the Russian people; and opening the eyes of the rest of the world (sans the West) to the Western hypocrisy and vulnerability. Both the Chinese and the Russian leadership are grandmaster Taoists, and disciplined students of history to boot. Sooner rather than later the West would regret the reckless provocation of China, just as it (the West) is now regretting poking the Russian bear.
Stakes on Pelosi visit on both sides are not high enough to balance out risks. So consider these hypotheses:
* phase 1: US runs Lend Lease loansharking deal on Taiwan, charges $50B, pays $10B, sucks Taiwanese economy dry, ideally gets them shot up like Ukraine. Support: Senate bills in Oct’21, prepared bill for later this week (surprise, surprise).
* phase 2: US establishes advisors, new Yokohama-Ramstein-style military base in Taiwan, as “protection” against “evil aggressors”.
* phase 3: US introduces nukes to Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier island.
* Plan 2: US repudiates unpayable Chinese debt, in a last-ditch effort to haircut $1T out of the world, keep the $$/useful-stuff inflation ratio from super-inflating the dollar, and breathe 5 more years of life into the currency. See: Economic Hit Man.
Either of at least the last two would be worth Pelosi betting her life, and China betting their army. Doesn’t seem to add up otherwise.
There issomething going on that we do not see. there may be moreagreement between PRC “leaders”and american oligarchs.
What will be the new arrangement?
The world needs Taiwanese chips. Taiwan is the goose laying golden eggs for all. Everybody wants ALL the golden eggs, but everyone can also kill the goose if somebody else tries to steal it. the goose would liely die in a theft attempt, also.
there was an agreement in 1979 that there is ‘One China’ governed by Beijing, that the uS recognizes that China considers that toinclude Taiwan9but not written, The US disagrees).
Also the Us passed a defense act that year to continue the military relationship with Taiwan.
Taiwan has not been ruled by China since 1895, 127 years ago, when China handed Taiwan/Formosa to japan. The island and her people had been loosly governed as something of a colony by China for 200 years previously, with some Chinese settling there to farm.
Formosa was part of the japanese Empire until 1945, coming into the modern era that way, then under the semi-fascist rule of Chiang Kai-shek for another 30 years.
I think most Taiwanese people want to be left alone.
Taiwan is a country.
Can they have a referendum and let people say what they choose?
In terms of the Taiwanese chips alone, it is in the interest of the U.S. to prevent a peaceful unification between China and Taiwan. Pelosi’s visit helps to create tensions between China and Taiwan. It might also be a bid to help the pro-Japanese party and undermine the pro-unification faction. The long game is to prevent unification.
Well, the Chinese have already taken military measures with the closure of 6 maritime zones around Taiwan due to military exercises (read as: anti-submarine operations). The zones even cover part of Taiwan’s territorial waters. It’s hard to predict anything. The Chinese have their own “folklore” in dealing with things.
the USA does not support an independent Taiwan while continuing to sell military hardware…
The situation in Taiwan is complex, far more complex than the pundits in the mass media say or recognize. I’ll just point out some facts indicating how byzantine the military politics is there. The USA has been pushing Taiwan to buy arms from the USA or other “Anglo-Sphere” countries for at least 25 years now. For the most part, the Taiwanese have rejected those American offers and instead chosen to buy from French international arms dealers that also sell to the PRC. No doubt that PRC intelligence officers played a large role in “Taiwanese” decisions. In fact, large parts, especially senior parts, of the Taiwanese military are rather close to their PRC counterparts. I’ve had the privilege of having been to both PRC and ROC military command centers (and also to American and Australian ones), also have been aboard active operational American, Australian, and Russian (and others) naval vessels. The world is not arranged the way the media would have you think.
I don’t know what game is being played here, but I’m positively sure it has no relation to what the mass media (of all “sides”) is reporting. I really like the Taiwanese, I hope they can extradite themselves out of this situation unscathed.
When did WWI start? August 2nd.
When did GWI start? August 2nd.
When did WWIII start? August 2nd.
It’s here folks, the battle of Planet Earth. I hope we win.
– You have been warned!
– In case of landing, there will be consequences!
Time to understand what means:
Paciência do chinês
The break has sharpened your analytical skills, Andrei.
How sad that even our academic media publish NOTHING of this quality.
There is a proverb, that the USA now can apply to China, no matter how she reacts later: all bark and no bite. And not a good example for the neighbors to watch how the tiger turned into a kitty.
I rather agree with Martyanov:
“Moreover, main China’s mistake was this, however justified, bellicose rhetoric preceding walking mummy’s visit to Taiwan and now the precedent had been created and IT IS already being spun by media….
But now we may have on our hands, actually, a bigger problem–with China being forced to respond in such a way that she is not perceived as a “paper tiger” and that may (I underscore it–may, it is not preordained) lead to an attempt on Taiwan and that may involve the US Navy, especially its submarine force, which theoretically CAN score some significant military points, which are desperately needed for demoralized and economically strained United States in general and Biden Administration in particular. This is the price of the moment of weakness and indecisiveness and there is no way to spin it in any positive direction. ”
Seems a bit more accurate than the spin the Saker puts on.
In the end this might be a good thing. It shows the Chinese the true face of the US as an enemy. It should solidify even more China’s closeness to Russia. And show the Chinese the need to bring the US/NATO down. It’s not today which will tell the tale.But the coming months that will show what comes from Pelosi’s stupidity.Just one example is that Taiwan’s trade with China is 42% of Taiwan’s total trade. The lost of 42% of your trade over one foolish move will be a hard blow to that island. And that is if that is all she will lose. If China now punishes the US by ditching the US debt she holds.And withdrawing much of her US investments. That,at this time would be a tremendous slap to the US economy. We’ll have to wait and see what comes of all this.But I don’t think the US and Taiwan should be celebrating just yet.
I don’t know what really behind all of this shenanigan, but my suspicion is there could be a secret deal between the Dem and the Chinese gov to allow Biden score some political goals at home, since China would not want Trump and or the Republicans to come back, at least.
Nancy Pelosi – at 86 – she must definitely be wearing diapers. I feel for the person who has to cleanup after her
many urine accidents. Counting the years …
PRC said there would be a military response.
There needs to be some military response.
Was the show of arms said “military response?”
Either way, an economic response alone would fall short of China’s promise.
A good point made by Peter Schiff a U.S economist, believes the Chinese may start dumping en masse their large pile of Treasuries which would cause interest rates to spike, meaning even more money printing by the U.S Federal Reserve, resulting in even more inflation and pain to the people in the U.S and the collective west.
Scott Ritter on Taiwan:
https://youtu.be/4-j4fhICWMs
Today strangely many ”pro russian” (or former? lol), are pro Taiwan, because like Larry Johnson and Smoothies they are above all anti commies…showing their true face: neocons à la Pompeo versus neocons à la Nuland Blinken.
No difference at all.
Will China Continue Losing Face?
2 August 2022 by Larry Johnson
https://sonar21.com/will-china-continue-losing-face/
well said. once again: not checkers. chess. maybe go instead of chess but you get the point.
yanks are a very ADHD bunch in general and especially at the top which is increasingly populated by Generation Ritalin and Generation Screen. only the tom friedmans of the world give a damn about this anyway and it’s a hardcore own goal when it comes to perception in the 80% or so of the world that doesn’t get their foreign policy opinions from chuck norris movies.
they visited syria. they visited ukraine. didn’t do them much good. i’d also agree with AM that (for now and seemingly) the US has naval advantages. but they’re also stretched pretty thin with ukraine and such.
oddly, just the other day AM also mentioned blinken’s previous 2019 “derp purl harber” nonsense. it seems to me that the chinese government knew that was probably the intention – like the provocations in the donbass and near crimea – and didn’t want to give the US the “satisfaction”. i’m more interested in what the “red line” for china PLUS russia would be.
tl;dr – they could have landed a bay of pigs-ish invasion force made of marines and seal and blah blah but they landed some old twat who makes maria shriver look obese.
Japan, The Eu and the USA probably also South korea, NZ, The UK, NZ and Australia all have debt problems. I might forget a few ”of the so called importance once” or the one billion Putin spoke about. They need to default same like Argentina my neighboring country ( not is the news but looting stores in happening) again. Russia default a while back so have a clean slate. (China will need to do to or go the Japanese way, The fed calls this QE.) Russia is the only clean shirt in the group of say golden boys (Putin). Russia knows at least the EU needs to default. So they are helping the EU. (the EU needs to reduce Consumption.) So they play along but uses the opportunity to make sure that the Russian speakers (think also cultural) are safe in the future. His popularity rises. Its the debt stupid and not the economy. It is all about the money. NB: i am pro Putins actions in Ukraine. But i do not understand the Chinese. They have a to big trade imbalance deficit with the world. The Chinese wants to be Calimero and to eat the biggets hamburger of all. Economy is a zero sum game. I put it down as short as i can. But we all depend each other. Look to the rust belt in the usa. And let that think in. It was not the decision of the people working there. Before you attack me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4gtO7dKrAw&ab_channel=WION
At 4:40 of this video Calvin Dark — a Democratic Strategist — makes a brilliant observation. He says that by threatening the US over Pelosi’s trip, China has essentially guaranteed — forced even — Pelosi to follow through. To do otherwise would, as Mr. Dark says, make the US look weak.
If one credits China with a high level of skill in these sorts of games — in stark contrast to US fecklessness — then China ***wanted*** Pelosi to follow through with her trip and acted to bring about that outcome.
Why would they do that, considering that it ***seems*** counter to their stated position?
Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want, but the explanation looks like the Chinese have laid a trap, and the US-in-the-person-of-Pelosi has fallen into the trap. If that is the case, then we now get to sit back and watch, and see how the Chinese plan — whatever that plan may be — plays out.
Interesting times.
Oh Saker (Andrej brat moj) with this one you realy nailed it and make me realise how much i miss your brain for this last three months .Stay strong and always keep this ĺaser sharp analythic mind of yours .Cheers .
CRNOGORAC
Who went with Pelosi to Taiwan?
Pelosi is third in line for the presidency and the American people have gotten horribly fed up with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. This stunt was Pelosi’s opportunity to distinguish herself as presidential material.
Imagine the mainstream media and DNC: “President Pelosi, the first woman president! She risked her life to confront China for the cause of freedom in Taiwan!
What gravitas! Definitely commander-in-chief material!”
We will see if something untimely happens with Biden and Harris. They are destroying the DNC and this would be a good move on their part. It would also be consistent with Pelosi’s Mafia family history.
There are two chinese idioms that could explain the Pelosi events.
1. Of the 36 ways of getting out of a fix the best is to run away.
2. When strong appear to your enemy as if you are weak, when weak appear to be strong.
Take your pick.
Why would China retaliate, and how?
1. China does not see Taiwan as a real threat (whereas today’s Ukraine represents a deadly threat to Russia). Taiwan’s citizens feel as Chinese as Mainland citizens. They consider each other as brothers. No Taiwanese soldier would gladly shoot a Mainland soldier and vice versa. All in all, the Taiwanese love their Mainlander siblings and detest their government.
2. China limiting exports to hurt the American consumer? Not a good idea. In the long run, it might even help the US take the path of deglobalization and Make America Great Again (if it’s not too late). Let’s not forget that Russia strengthened its economic sovereignty thanks to sanctions. In the short run, limiting Chinese exports would hurt many small and medium Chinese companies, and millions of citizens : the Chinese never bow to their government when their wellbeing is at stake (this has been the Chinese people’s red line throughout history). I witnessed several riots in the southern provinces of China in the late 1990s, and the citizens bravely defended their rights against corrupt local officials. Chinese citizens are no sheeple, contrary to many northern Europeans.
3. China also has a fifth column : the young usually prefer American materialism, consumerism and glamour to Russian patriotism and orthodox faith. The Chinese government already tried to turn the tide in fighting American cultural influence. The Pelosi freak show might help them.
4. As for China invading Taiwan or Taiwan declaring independence, those are western concepts. Both issues are non-starters for both parties : Taiwan has always been useful for the Mainland, and, since the return of Deng Xiaoping, its more advanced industry contributed greatly (with the Japanese zaibatsu) to the takeoff of the Mainland’s economy. I started visiting China and attending Chinese universities in the 1990s and every time I had to spend the night in a hotel reserved for “foreigners”, all the “foreign” customers present were Taiwanese or Japanese. As for Taiwan declaring independence, why would they do such a childish (American) thing? Taiwan is already independent, Taiwan is no threat to the Mainland, Taiwan is an asset for the whole of China, and Taiwan will inevitably return to the motherland in the future.
5. This Pelosi comedy show might benefit China in the long run, and weaken the USA. But, right now, the main winner is certainly Russia. Russia, which is bearing most of the burden in the war started by the Empire, will become even more popular and more respected by the “large popular masses” of China and most countries in the world.
6. Losing face is undoubtedly an important characteristic of Chinese culture, but the Pelosi stunt looks more like a display of imbecility than a humiliation of the adversary. If someone did lose face here, it should rather be the US than China.
If things heat up, here are two good Chinese sources to check daily for news:
Xinhua:
https://english.news.cn/home.htm
Global Times:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/index.html
A few relevant videos.
China conducts military drills ahead of Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/china-drill-with-music:e
Chinese tanks gather in Xiamen port near Taiwan Strait:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/tanks-feed-16×9-(720):b
Chinese military vehicles deployed to beaches near Taiwan:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/beach-tanks:d
Nope.
CHN are conducting Drills that surround TWN.
They may just start deploying Ships and Aircraft All Around TWN – all the Time while:
A) Telling the USA/NATO/EU/UN that their Govt Officials/Politicians are no longer welcome;
B) Impose a Restricted AirSpace Policy – Banning Foreign Flights+Airlines To/From TWN, requiring a Customs Stop on the Mainland.
****
Pelosi’s sounding like a State Department Dweeb – doing Biden+Blinken’s Dirty Work.
USA Govt Official meeting with TWN Govt and Industrial Leadership – Supporting TWN Secessionists…Biden+Blinken doing that WOULD have launched an SMO.
Yet, No One is considering this a Personal Democracy Delegation… Biden/Blinken/Pelosi pushed too far – after her meeting with TMSC, Beijing banned Sand Shipments to their Foundries.
More to come.
This was Pelosi’s First and Last.
Once again the argument is watertight: The braindead USA’ans send their highest ranking inside trader, as a billion-dollar propaganda gift to Chinese leadership, all for free. Here is the conversation:
Nancy: We will do whatever needs require (two winks sell by next Thursday) to meet the situation directly as it may or (one wink buy, buy buy) may not mature. (Hold until further notice)
Green Emperor: China will never again be placed in a (Thursday, all go) position of compromise.
N: We can’t be ( 2 wink chips?) pressured to (wink wink pigs) ignore the (yes, buy, sell, buy, sell) required commitments that (hold it for B wink) engages the necessary responsibilities that (wink wink check check) . . are engendered in this transition of (more winks, yes sell, buy sell) developmental objectives.
GE: China’s commitment to (we take all rights) respect and strength and (money money money) integrity will never be undone by (do it give us more) ….
Everyone here thinks China is going to pull back from the West. Perhaps instead it will continue investing in Europe, as part of the belt and road, where it has strong trading relations, being Ukraine’s #1 trading partner. Europe will not necessarily support the US if it moves against China.
The only measurable result is Pelosi received a hefty cash payment from Taiwan for her PR stunt. This is a fact.
I agree, the stunt has increased the resolve of the Chinese people. Short-term, this will result in punishments to Taiwan. Long-term, this resolve may result in a hot war with the USA.
The intention is to embarrass President Xi. In the eyes of some, this may be a result. Were I to be an advisor to Xi, I would have advised to play down the importance of Pelosi, and use rhetoric to ridicule her. I would extend the ridicule to Tsai. Such saves face yet enables retaliation. Unfortunately, Taiwan is an emotional red button for the CCP leadership currently, but cooler heads should have prevailed.
Taiwan is an emotional red button for the CCP leadership
If you let emotions control your politics, you already have lost.
Pelosi is indeed a bit scary, but I don’t really think the Chinese fear her that much.
I am reading this the same way. The Biden administration folks, aka Neocons, have walked into their own trap face first …….. again. They are breaking things that cannot be reassembled.
Having lived 35 yrs in the “East” I can agree with your analysis. First, “face” (reputation among peers and inferiors) is local. China can’t “lose face” against the US. Further, ‘face’ comes second to intelligent, practical assessment of the situation and its repercussions, ie if you’re right in the end, you gain face.
The Pelosi show was for US consumption not China’s. There will be revenge at some time that benefits China rather than punishes the US (they have enough trouble…). The US horizon is months, while China’s is centuries.
More important are the effects on the Taiwanese leadership and local opinion. These will be watched closely.
What will China do?
My guess is that steps will be taken to reduce Taiwan’s autonomy. It may even go as far as taking over Taiwan airspace and taking control of Taiwan territorial waters.
Whatever it is, it will be an action that will be just short of giving a casus belli to the US.
@ JackJC on August 02, 2022 · at 8:07 pm EST/EDT
To understand the Art of War, first read the Dao de Ching.
————————————————————————————-
“Understanding” uses the intellect to grasp any matter at hand, a western concept.
One cannot “understand” The Art of War, same way one cannot “read” the Tao Te Ching.
Both are key pillars of Taoist philosophy, and their comprehension implies living them. “Understanding” is all in the head, Taoist philosophy cannot be understood with the intellect, it has to be lived in the heart and in one’s life.
The Tao that can be told is not the eternal Tao.
The name that can be named is not the eternal name.
Lone Wolf
PS: As for the application of the Art of War to the current predicament, many principles can be applied, one that fits the bill is “Humility makes them haughty.”
She went there with her bag. In person meetings. No surveillance. No records. Diplomatic privileges. She’s doing the pickup after the Dems got their CHIPS bill through.
For the most part the ”Nancy goes to Taiwan” saga is pure theater. No facts on the ground have changed. The optics for China are not great, but it still holds the stronger cards.
a China quer enfraquecer o dólar para derrubar os EUA ? Se sim, ela quer internacionalizar o Yuan para ser uma opção mundial para o seu comércio? Há muito a China foge desse dilema. A China precisa se posicionar aceitando as perdas que advém das escolhas.
does China want to weaken the dollar to bring down the US? If yes, does it want to internationalize the Yuan to be a worldwide option for its trade? China has long avoided this dilemma. China needs to position itself to accept the losses that come from choices.
USA Rulers have sent a clear message to the World : We are your Colonial Masters. Your place in the World is what we say it is, and don’t you forget it!
I was hoping for Chinese kinetic persuasion. I watch too many Hollywood movies.
So, does China have the ability to adapt and take control of emergent malevolent circumstances? This is what China is all about. I assume the solution will come from a deliberated Engineering/Medical perspective, rather than a spontaneous ad-hoc emotional Politician perspective.
I think you’re giving too much credit to China. There is no secret, elaborate plan to retaliate against the US and the Chinese government is not trying prepare the public opinion of the Chinese people for some later confrontation. If anything, the government has just shut down Weibo (Chinese social media platform) to tamp down the public outrage at Pelosi’s visit. China didn’t want this visit to happen; this was not some ingenious trap designed to ensnare the US.
China has not done anything in response to Pelosi’s provocation beyond verbal protests and military exercises because it can’t do anything more. It’s as simple as that. And the truth is that given the chance, China will always choose to make concessions in order to placate the aggressor and maintain good relations with it. We see evidence of it throughout the history of China’s dealings with foreign powers. The Chinese are simply not a very aggressive people (Western propaganda notwithstanding) and in fact much of its territory was actually acquired while it was ruled by foreign invaders (e.g. Tibet and Xinjiang under Mongol and Manchu rule).
This is very frustrating for people who are desperate for leadership in the fight against the Anglo-American domination of the world but China is just not up to the task. Russia is the best hope.
Here! This is exactly what I was thinking also.
China didn’t reply military because it knows it can’t and it will always attempt to maintain good relations with major foreign powers. Economy is the great strength, but also the weakness of the nation. If it was ever to lose its western markets, how would the majority of the people of China not lose their jobs as their own economy would collapse in a matter of weeks? How would they feed their 1,4 billion population? The West needs China but the reverse is also true. They would need to put their economy on a totally different war footing, mass producing armament to be able to meet the global military challenge but when it comes to that, no nation would remain unscathed and no one can predict the long-term outcome.
Reminds me of the delicious comment by – was it Lavrov? – “With enemies like that, who needs friends?”
The Chinese are not being ‘clever’. Nor were the Russians. Both are/were weak, irresolute and they disheartened their people. They emboldened the US and EU. This timidity led people and governments around the world to continue to toady up. No putting lipstick on the pigs please.
Still, the Pelosi visit causes the scales to fall from Chinese eyes towards the US. And provides many opportunities for deeper reprisal. Perhaps including providing better support to Russia who at last are actually doing something material.
I am simply astonished about the lack of wisdom by the otherwise careful Chinese diplomacy, although that has somewhat changed after the Reykjavik debacle. What happened here? Any positive spin fails to acknowledge they put themselves in a pickle now.
Had they, like Russia, just established a red line, but refrained from threats that, as is obvious now, they never intended to transform into action, nothing would have been lost. Russia established red lines, but ONLY did threaten any action (I think they called it a military technical response or something like that, and kept everyone guessing) just before the SMO in Ukraine, to the surprise of everyone (or most) around. That’s the way to do it, to quote Dire Straits.
Russia’s behavior is so much superior to what Beijing did, with the result of their losing face in an area they are now only top kitty, instead of top tiger. The reputation of being a credible actor will be hard to rebuild, and China is seen now as a nation that simply is incapable of delivering, and just bluster and hot air. Too bad, one had expected a wiser government. They have much to learn from Russia.
This only reveals the panic in Washington and SMO revealed the panic in Bryssel and Frankfurt. The Global South is where the future will be made.
What a sad excuse for China’s chickening out of directly challenging the Hegemon over a gross violation of it’s so-called “sovereignty”. The Chinese government was practically on a war footing, then at the last minute they just backed out. Shameful smh.
With Russia would agree as Western. China however is Asian, they made a lot of threats and yet did nothing, no way this is not a loss of face and humiliation. I don’t doubt they will seek and have revenge, however a more modest protest would have avoided said humiliation.
I’m more sympathetic to China in terms of its warnings and threats prior to Pelosi’s visit. Given that what Pelosi was about to do was crossing China’s red line, China had no choice but to assert in the strongest terms its objection to it. It is just unfortunate that China is not capable of doing anything material to actually back up its threats.
That said, I am now seeing something of a silver lining to this whole affair. China is now openly encroaching on Taiwan’s airspace and territorial waters. In the past, China had always avoided doing so in something of a tacit agreement with Taiwan (and the US). That agreement now appears to be shot and China is carrying out military exercises in six areas surrounding Taiwan in what amounts to a de facto (soft) blockade. The US is not doing anything about it with its carrier-battle groups having buggered off after Pelosi’s departure from Taiwan. I think we may be seeing the beginning of China asserting territorial control over Taiwan.
Of course Andrei is right, by now we should understand that the Chinese know very well what they are doing! As he implied at the end, they want the current US elite to continue in power a bit more to ensure the current downhill US trajectory continues until it’s sufficiently weak.
I love coming to this site because you can find little nuggets of truth now and then. In the “sidebar” comment above, we have such an example. This war (or Special Military Operation to kill Nazi’s–sounds like another episode of “inglorious bastards–only good nazi is a dead nazi) like all wars of aggression are fought for domestic reasons. Most often to rally support behind the regime.
Putin does it, Biden and the Xi and the Ayatollahs also . Obviously war is the health of the state. More war is all ruling classes know, whether that class is made of oligarchs or party apparatchiks or tin horn dictators.
Two weeks to flatten the. . .
A: U.S. Economy
B: Western Financial System
C: Taiwan
D: U.S. Carrier Fleets
The vital organs of a nation are Reason, Authority, Serenity, Love, and Gentleness. I am sure Nancy’s visit to Taiwan has nothing to do with improving the viability of those organs in either her nation or China. Therefore, I am sure that visit is a laughingstock and object of condemnation to legitimate governments and most peoples of the world, including Americans, but not of course to Americans’ government, which is self-install, illegitimate, and does not represent the interests of Americans or America.
“That kind of imperial arrogance is something which not only impact (the already pretty angry Chinese population), it also infuriates all of Zone B, thereby creating the conditions for more defeats for the USA in Asia, Africa, the Indian Subcontinent, Central Asia and Latin America.”
I would love to know what Overseas Chinese think of Nancy’s stunt.
In the US, Canada, and around the Pacific Rim.
“…That kind of imperial arrogance is something which not only impact (the already pretty angry Chinese population), it also infuriates all of Zone B, thereby creating the conditions for more defeats for the USA in Asia, Africa, the Indian Subcontinent, Central Asia and Latin America.”
Also infuriates British and Europeans!!
As a Brit, I am right behind Russia and China in these quarrels, and I think the West deserves everything it has coming to it, and I am infuriated by the ARROGANCE, CORRUPTION, SELFISHNESS and STUPIDITY of the Western politicians and Big Corps.
One day, the Russians & Chinese are going to do mammoth first strike nukes on every large city in North America, UK (London already identified as Top of Russia’s nuke list”), and Europe.
China is not idly sitting there and biding its time. It is currently conducting military exercises around Taiwan using live warheads. What does that do?? It Effectively blockades Taiwan’s port so that no shipping will be able to travel in those waters, and nothing can be imported or exported from Taiwan, e.g., imports of sand for chip-making.
China may be calling it just an “exercise” but the effects are the same as the real thing!
How long will the blockade continue? That is up to China.
AND the majority of the people of Taiwan are not at all happy at Pelosi’s visit, and are turning away from the US and towards China.
The whole thing is backfiring mightily on the USA and West.
Andrei,
You wrote:
“Third, let me ask you a simple question: who decided on the timing of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan? The answer is obvious, it was the leaders of the USA. And you can bet that they had everything carefully lined up to make that visit happen in the best of possible circumstances.”
I fear you over-estimate the coherence of the US ruling elite.
To put it bluntly, they are really, really disorganized, incompetent, and stupid.
Otherwise, I fear you are on the mark: the Chinese response (shooting missiles over Taiwan territory!) pretty much proves that they think this is priming their own population for a more belligerent response in the future.
Dave Miller in Sacramento
“I fear you over-estimate the coherence of the US ruling elite.”
That is a popular delusion which some hope to sustain by prioritising “emotional intelligence” , which in their arrogance of I’m a smart boyness and contempt for their “audience” some admit – Mr. Rove’s we are an Empire refers as one example of many.
“The United States of America” are sustained by the delusions/illusions of others.
“To put it bluntly, they are really, really disorganized, incompetent, and stupid.”
Failure to perceive this has advantages whose accrual is not restricted to those attempting to prioritise “emotional inteliigence” since, “”To put it bluntly, they are really, really disorganized, incompetent, and stupid.” and it suits the purposes of many that they remain so in furtherance of the hypotheses derived from “How to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback ?”
“the Chinese response (shooting missiles over Taiwan territory!) pretty much proves that they think this is priming their own population for a more belligerent response in the future.”
You apparently underestimate the coherence of “Chinese” strategic purposes through possible conflation of “an answer” with “the answer”, a residue of the rubbing sticks school of thermo-dynamics, which is also a popular delusion facilitating “The United States of America”, as for some, is the delusion that doubt is a disadvantage not a catalyst.
Andrei is correct. Here, in China, the feeling is FURY. I have never seen such admiration and respect for Xi Peng, and that is because everyone KNOWS that China is going to serve up a dish to the United States that is bone-sober cold.
First order of business, stop this nonsense in Taiwan. That’s “game over”. Either reunify peacefully, or dies horribly. It’s now crystal clear.
And yeah. The USA is following the RAND dictates. Those “sanctions from Hell”, blockades and all the rest are coming irregardless to what actions China takes.
“Strike not where your adversary is prepared, but strike where he does not expects, at a time when he is unprepared.”
The Chinese is a culture with great patience and they measure timelines not in months but decades, which is something the West is unable to due to its short democratic election cycles. When you’re a culture of only 200+ years, 2+ years is already 1% of your history and it seems a long enough time. When you’re a culture of 5,000 over years, that same 1% is 50+ years. For sure revenge will be served, but why hurry and do exactly what your enemy wants you to do? In time to come, everyone will see that China has fulfilled all its announcements, but only when the price is worthwhile.
Secondly, the West is often too egoistic to not realise sometimes the message is not meant for the West. In a duel for world leadership, the egoistic west especially USA tends to browbeat everyone else to follow its leadership. Leadership by coercion is a weak form of leadership. A better form of leadership is one that everyone else volunteers to follow. The rest of the world especially the fence sitters, will have received the same message that was recently sent by the Chinese and previously by the Russians prior to the SMO, that no matter what you propose in pursuit of peace, no matter what warnings you issued to avoid conflict, USA will disregard all of that and provoke you to war. The Russian $200+ billions in Western banks that was seized by the West is a further demonstration of the untrustworthiness of the West. It is a classic chess move of sacrificing a pawn to take a queen. How painful would it be for the smaller countries if $200+ billions of their money is seized by the West just because the West suddenly decides so? The message is that the West is a unreliable partner and an instigator of war. Nobody can work with someone like that. Everyone in the world sees it clearly now. And guess where will they all flock to? The only 2 countries that can protect them. That’s why not one single country in South America, Africa, Middle East and the rest of non-Western aligned countries in Asia agreed to sanction Russia, because they saw for themselves what monster the West is.
Now back to the question of why China did not do anything regarding Pelosi’s visit. China already began to do so, its warships effectively blockaded Taiwan. When you’re an island, your greatest fear is being blockaded. It is a siege, and Pelosi has just given China the official reason to militarily cross the median line in the Taiwan Straits which it has never crossed. But that is just the first step. The rest will be economical and psychological, to make the Taiwanese demand that their government stop making things worse for them. The anti-Tsai government voices in Taiwan have now grown because the actions of their government has made them afraid.