Moveable Feast Cafe 2022/11/11 … Open Thread

The US is turning into a pretty good Russian ally. They might just have thrown Turkey into the Russian sphere with this latest terrorist attack. Albeit I said the same thing about Kazakhstan coming around to Russia in a fit of gratitude after Putin stopped a US takeover. And then there is Saudi Arabia giving serious consideration to where their allegiences lay but still on the fence.

Iran though is the big surpise given the history between the two countries.
“That Tehran and Moscow would cooperate this closely in Ukraine caught many observers—including some leading Russian experts on Iran—by surprise. Despite their recent alignment, Iran and Russia have a long history of enmity and mistrust going back to the tsarist era, including a series of Russo-Persian wars and frequent Russian meddling in Persian politics. During the Cold War, their relations were tense when Iran was led by the U.S.-allied shah and still worse after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Iran’s new regime dubbed the Soviet Union a “Satan” alongside the United States and backed the Afghan mujahideen against the Soviets, just as Moscow aided Baghdad during the Iran-Iraq War. Relations later improved, with Russia providing assistance to Iran’s growing nuclear infrastructure and missile programs in the 1990s. But Moscow also earned Iranian mistrust when it waffled on major arms deals and assented to multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions sanctioning Iran over its growing nuclear program.

Russo-Iranian relations have gained steam, however, since Vladimir Putin’s 2012 return to the Russian presidency—and particularly since his 2015 military intervention in Syria to save their common ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Although suspicion and competition remain, both sides increasingly see their interests as intertwined, driven by shared opposition to the West.”

BTW
Russia gave Iran British NLAW and American Javelin and Stinger
By Boyko Nikolov On Nov 13, 2022

BulgarianMilitary.com
LONDON ($1=0.84 GBP) — Man-portable anti-tank missiles and surface-to-air missiles manufactured by the UK and the US have been sent to Iran. These are FIM-92 Stinger man-portable air-defense system, Saab Bofors Dynamics NLAW anti-tank guided missile and FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missile system. The information was revealed by the British news channel Sky News.

Russia has received 160 Iranian-made drones, mostly Shahed-136 and Shahed-129, which BulgarianMilitary.com wrote about. Later, the Russian Federation decided to increase their range by integrating GLONASS navigation modules. In exchange for these drones, Moscow is sending Tehran 140 million euros [according to Sky News] and the weapons systems described above captured in the still ongoing war.

It is expected, quite logically, that military engineers in Iran will disassemble the weapons systems sent and examine them. Western technology will be thoroughly researched and Iranian copies of these weapons will appear at a later stage.

Good one on Turkey
https://vz.ru/world/2022/11/14/1186679.html
The West is hitting Erdogan at his weakest point
Tightened security measures on the streets of Istanbul after the terrorist attack
November 14, 2022, 18:15
Photo: Francisco Seco/AP/TASS
Text: Gevorg Mirzayan, associate professor of the Financial University
“The West needs a subordinate Turkey, or it is also part of an arc of chaos and instability.” With these words, political scientists comment on the terrorist attack that took place the day before in Istanbul, and its political background. Who is behind this crime, why is it directed personally against Erdogan and how can Turkey respond to it?

First of all, it is worth recalling that Turkey today is a warring country. Its troops occupy part of Syria and indirectly participate in a whole series of military conflicts in the Middle East. And on Turkish territory itself, the struggle of the central government against separatists from among the Turkish Kurds continues.

However, with all this, Turkey has lost the habit of large terrorist attacks. On November 13, unfortunately, she was reminded of them. A bomb exploded on the touristic Istiklal Street in Istanbul, killing six people and injuring more than 80.

The security forces have already presented the captured terrorist to the public. She turned out to be a woman of Kurdish nationality, Ahlam Albashir, who (judging by the recordings of the cameras) sat on a bench for 45 minutes, and after she left, a bomb exploded exactly in this place. Together with her, the police also detained more than four dozen people.

Even if half of the detainees are released as innocent (it is clear that in such a situation there are a lot of suspects), it is already obvious that the attack was carefully planned. Moreover, judging by the preliminary statements of the Turkish side, many players participated in this planning, with whom Ankara has very difficult relations.

Thus, during interrogation, the alleged perpetrator of the attack allegedly stated that she had undergone special training in the camps of Kurdish militants and that she entered Turkey illegally from Syria, which allowed the authorities to name the Kurdish militants as the direct perpetrators of the terrorist attack. In addition, according to the authorities, a group of perpetrators was supposed to eliminate the direct perpetrator, and then flee to the territory of Greece (with which Turkey has repeatedly balanced on the verge of hostilities in recent years).

Finally, the Turkish leadership directly accused the United States of organizing the attack.

– and apparently not just because the Americans are supplying and protecting Kurdish fighters in Syria. Otherwise, the Turks would not have refused to accept American condolences (a traditional diplomatic act that is always expressed in such cases).

“The condolences expressed by the United States should, in my opinion, be assessed as the actions of a killer who first arrives at the scene of a crime,” Turkish Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu said . It is unlikely that the minister would have decided on such words without the approval of the country’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The person against whom, according to a number of experts (both Turkish and Russian), this terrorist attack was directed.

A man who, according to the West, has taken off too high and who behaves too independently.

“President Erdogan began to drag too much onto himself. And negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and grain, and a gas hub, and a military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia,” writes Russian political scientist Marat Bashirov.

Of course, we were not talking about some kind of physical murder of the leader of Turkey – in 2016 they tried, but it did not work out. Instead, his opponents in the West have chosen a different strategy – to undermine the domestic political situation in the country as much as possible and try to achieve either the removal of Erdogan in the elections of 2023, or to force him into massive fraud to take power, followed by internal unrest.

And there are chances for this, because the electoral positions of the Turkish leader are not so strong now. First of all, because of the economy. In the zero years, it was due to his competent economic policy that he managed to enlist the support of the population and prevent potential military coups (which happened in Turkey against every Islamist leader who won the elections), and now the country is in a serious economic crisis. The inflation rate exceeds 80%.

And in this situation, the terrorist attack strikes not only the tourism industry, but also the second pillar of Erdogan’s legitimacy – internal stability. Moreover, the blow is multi-way – we are talking about both the inability of the Turkish leader to protect the Turks, and the consequences of possible responses.

“In June 2023, presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in Turkey. The country is split strictly in half between the moderate Islamists of Erdogan and the pro-Western Kemalists. Kurdish votes can play a decisive role. And now the United States wants to provoke Erdogan with terrorist attacks to start a war against the Kurds inside Turkey and thereby make all Kurds enemies of Erdogan. And then all the Kurds will vote against Erdogan,” writes Russian political scientist Sergei Markov.

Finally, the terrorist attack also has a clearly visible foreign policy aspect. The attack occurred exactly on the eve of Erdogan’s visit to the G20 summit, where he was supposed to hold an important meeting with Joseph Biden.

In Indonesia, according to three people familiar with it, Erdogan wants to be recognized as the president of a great power that is playing an increasing role from Ukraine to Libya to Syria, where its troops or Turkish military advisers are stationed . How will Erdogan now talk to the American president – after the accusations and the emerging deja vu (after all, Biden was vice president in the administration of Barack Obama, which, according to the Turkish side, was almost the organizer of the 2016 coup attempt)?

At the same time, Western politicians forget that they are also dealing with a master of geopolitics. Erdogan is one of those players who can also respond to complex attacks with complex defense. And Ankara is already promising to respond.

“We know what message those who carried out this action want to send us. We have received this message. Don’t worry, we will answer in full and add more from above,” Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said . And now Erdogan may have enough options for this reaction – both diplomatic and military.

“Soon, probably, Sweden, Finland and NATO will be reminded of their position on anti-terrorist policy, unwillingness to extradite Kurdish “figures” and disrespect for Ankara’s interests that directly affect its security. And it will also be possible to calmly start another military campaign against the “offshoots” of the PKK. And it is unlikely that the United States and the collective West as a whole will be able to object in this case, – writes Vladimir Avatkov, head of the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East, INION RAS. – In general, there are a lot of options for actions and opportunities. The main thing is to be able to use them correctly. And draw conclusions. Once again: the West needs a subordinate Turkey or Turkey as part of an arc of chaos and instability.”

Erdogan doesn’t need it like that. Yes, and Russia, in general, too.