Moveable Feast Cafe 2022/10/04 … Open Thread

So, four little baby bears officially joined Russia.. Those who didn’t really start anything — Are Now Coming! what is missed by most panicking armchair watchers is that this world war is totally hybrid.. no sending millions of young men into the meat-grinder.. The Command & Control (C2) deciders were already put on notice.. how would millions of potential little nazi tentacles function bereft of a decapitated brain? This underlies the Russian game-plan and why no mass mobilization is anticipated.. just enough to garrison borderlands and maintain internal stability.

Uncle Lavrov promised more of the same:

“I would like to join this festive mood, congratulate the representatives of the four new constituent entities of the Russian Federation. I am sure that the next set of constitutional laws will also be approved.”

Sit-Rep Türkiye (the evaporating status of the Treaties)

1️⃣ Energy pipes & infrastructure and
2️⃣ Forces probing and positioning:

Thankfully, Ambassador MK Badrakhumar saved me alotta work on putting in context the bizarre coming Turkish dawn on July 24, 2023, when the two Treaties of Sèvres and Lausanne expire. He was formerly Indian envoy in Ankara and knows them well. These Treaties remain evil fruits of Sykes-Picot which continue to be harvested.
MKB says of expiring Treaties and their ramifications:

“…tensions mount in the Turkish-Greek rivalry, which often draws comparison with the India-Pakistan animosity, stemming from another historical “Partition” — under the Treaty of Lausanne (1923) that ended the Ottoman Empire.

The beauty about peace treaties is that they have no ‘expiration date’ but the Treaty of Lausanne was signed for a period of a hundred years between Turkiye on one side and Britain, France, Italy, Greece, and their allies on the other. The approaching date heightens the existential predicament at the heart of Turkiye’s foreign policy.

The stunning reality is that by 24th July 2023, Turkey’s modern borders become “obsolete”. The secret articles of the 1923 Treaty, signed by Turkish and British diplomats, provide for a chain of strange happenings — [1] British troops will reoccupy the forts overlooking the Bosphorus [!!!!]; [2] the Greek Orthodox Patriarch will resurrect a Byzantine mini state within Istanbul’s city walls; and [3] Turkey will finally be able to tap the forbidden vast energy resources of the East Mediterranean (and, perhaps, regain Western Thrace, a province of Greece.)

Of course, none of that can happen and they remain conspiracy theories. Nonetheless, the “end-of-Lausanne” syndrome remains a foundational myth and weaves neatly into the historical revisionism that Ataturk should have got a much better deal from the Western powers.

All this goes to underline the magnitude of the current massively underestimated drama, of which Cyprus is at the epicentre. Suffice to say, Turkey’s geometrically growing rift with Greece and Cyprus over the offshore hydrocarbon reserves and naval borders must be properly understood in terms of the big picture.

Turkiye’s ruling elite believe that Turkey was forced to sign the Treaty of Sevres in 1920 and the “Treaty of Lausanne” in 1923 and thereby concede vast tracts of land under its domain. Erdogan rejects any understanding of history that takes 1919 as the start of the 1,000-year history of his great nation and civilisation. “Whoever leaves out our last 200 years, even 600 years together with its victories and defeats, and jumps directly from old Turkish history to the Republic, is an enemy of our nation and state,” he once stated.

The international community has begun to pay attention as Turkiye celebrates its centenary next year, which also happens to be an election year for Erdogan. In a typical first shot, the US State Department announced on September 16 — just five days before Jaishankar met Cavusoglu — that Washington is lifting defence trade restrictions on the Greek Cypriot administration for the 2023 fiscal year..

..Symptomatic of the shift in tectonic plates is the recent report that Russia might launch direct flights between Moscow and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, a state supported and recognised only by Ankara. (Incidentally, one “pre-condition” set by the Biden administration to resume military aid to Cyprus was that Nicosia should roll back its relations with Moscow!)
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Buckle up for 2023..

Everyone’s prepositioning in advance of Turkey’s “unleashing.” Driving events is largely the AZE intending to suicide the Turks on the Russians. The Montreux Convention (1936) appears doomed or to be altered significantly quite soon. The Eastern Med will be bubbling, and not merely due to Israel, or Turkish-Greek rivalry, but Anglo-American rapid arming of the Greek World and putative reoccupation of “the forts overlooking the Bosphorus,” as crazy as this sounds today. Erdogan has gotten the memo this madness will not fly with the Russians. So the crazies are incentivizing him via the Greeks in Cyprus and Greece proper.. so he is in zugzwang — either war on AZE or on their behalf on the Russians. Mission Impossible!

▪︎ European vassals pile on. Germany: sanction Turkey.

▪︎ Jake Sullivan was just in Istanbul, soon after Pelosi’s visit to Armenia.. was it to make unrefusable offers, rather than stated objectives?

Turkey vis-a-vis Greece & the UN reforms..

Turkey has been threatening Greece for years, increasing recently. Both position themselves for the fight over the Aegean islands and off-shore oil/gas.. Greece is incited by usual suspects, as with Armenia..

“Erdogan accused Greece of being engaged in “manipulations and escalations” and warned that the outcome of a possible confrontation with Türkiye would be disastrous for the Greek people. As an example, he mentioned the losses that Greek expeditionary forces in Türkiye suffered a century ago, during the Turkish War of Independence.

Lesbos and Samos used to be part of the Ottoman Empire, but Istanbul’s grip on them dwindled by the start of the 20th century. Greece incorporated the islands along with several others in the early 1910s.

Athens sealed its sovereignty over them under the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, which ended Türkiye’s hostilities with European nations. The agreement’s terms specifically banned Greece from building naval bases or fortifications on four of them, including Lesbos and Samos.”

▪︎ Turkey pushes to end UN veto..

Turkey wants the UN Security Council to be “more inclusive” and to eliminate the veto power of the permanent members, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters on Friday.

..“Of course, a criteria could be determined according to the population, size and geographical distribution of each country. But on the other hand, the right of veto should also be abolished,” the foreign minister added.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has championed the vision he dubbed “the world is bigger than five” – referring to the five permanent UNSC members – for years..

..On a tour of Africa in 2021, Erdogan described this arrangement as unjust and obsolete, with a “handful of countries” dominating the world.

Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the idea at the time, saying if the veto was abolished “the UN would die the very same day – it would turn into the League of Nations,” a powerless debate club.

Now, however, Erdogan’s idea seems to have at least partial backing from Washington. ..Addressing the General Assembly this week, US President Joe Biden proposed expanding the Security Council and limiting the veto to “rare, extraordinary situations.”

A consensus is built among Russians, US, Turks, and others to expand the UNSC.. this appears done deal. Under which terms? Partial, no or full retention of veto? Is it all academic as AZE is going full Kamikaze on the rest of mankind, including Europe?

I will add Turkey in last decade has built significant political, economic, military and cultural capital and reforged historical links in Muslim nations in Africa. This is a concerted drive and charm offensive. One objective appeared to be to leverage an exit out of cul-de-sac the West put Turkey in 1920-23 with the Treaties of Sèvres and Lausanne. Engaging in the Syrian debacle and being primary base and launching point of terrorism in the world war on Syria has not helped its image, to put it mildly.. facilitating grain shipments and being sympathetic to a Russia favored by most of Global South also obtains some balancing cache for Turkey. It is Byzantine knot.

ZZzzzzzzzz……………

▪︎ bonbon, re: “All hell breaks loose on Musk’s peace proposal” Musk is a slimy opportunist who was gung-ho for UkroNazis from day one.. it is no peace proposal whatsoever. He is merely another Deep State panicked orifice that anticipates Starlink or StarNet and other airborne satellites are coming down soon in the escalation of Phase III.. So he mewls about peace hoping it will save his satsass, as he gave free internet and battlefield data to nazi cadres. NOT!
In fact, strangely echoing words I just wrote in a poem of “a laser anti-satellite” visuals of such were captured over various Russian cities.. I had thought to change the wording to “Nudol A-235 anti-satellite” as lasers weren’t so powerful at such distances? Has the physics been made possible now? What say boffins?

▪︎ A gift to beloved Fionne and all lovers of Rumi.. Anatolian Sufi balladeer builds and builds so exquisitely.. and does his part in swaying the Sultan away from the Edge of the Ledge and towards Harmony, Tranquility, and Peace.. what a beautiful and haunted yet serene land.
YT commentator: “He started singing, and a cat woke, chickens came, the breeze calmed a bit, clouds parted ever so slightly, and the grass began to grow.”

Dimi, I am in zugzwang! I appear to be the only honey tempting enough to get our brother bear Fionne outta his Cave, but I am a useless poet! 😢 What to do?? Has the world-famous stubbornness of his Hungarian hosts rubbed off or he is so busy lately..