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Sitrep: Looks like Kiev may have to do something under domestic pressure from RS forces like start a push on LPR? If they gain some ground then they can declare a “victory:” and better yet in their opinion if they can force the DPR to move forces up from Mariupol area.
When the Ukies push into the Donbass lines to improve their advantage, they create a boiler for themselves. They would have to attack in some fashion in many places simultaneously.
The Russian generals and colonels on the ground, watching from drone images and other signal intel systems will swiftly counter with mobility and firepower.
The Ukies are in a bad way militarily. They can inflict damage on civilian and block positions of militia, but they are not going to win and hold any new territory that is not part of a snare.
Where they have elevation for artillery, they can’t use for advancing, only destroying the lower villages and towns is possible.
If they go for a major city, the Russians will pour armor into the battle and destroy them.
If they go completely suicidal and launch 10,000 men and tanks, et al, they might advance for a day or two. But those troops will be sliced and diced like every other time.
This is Russian military strength, defending the steppes. I cannot see how Ukies win anything.
Conversely, the militia is too small to gain much more territory. Their gains are consolidated and won’t much improve until Putin wants to go with a wider response. And he clearly is in no mood for that. He accomplishes more with a phone call to someone with a stake in the war than using thousands of militia on an adventure like Strelkov and the nationalists want.
Give Putin another 50,000 militia and he might change. (They barely have added 10,000 lately).
They have a small defense force made up of heroes. He actually does not want to waste these guys.
The strategy is a long war game in which innocents die, homes are destroyed and it looks like a stalemate.
Actually, the ground in Kiev is changing. Everyone has eyes on Gorlovka and Donetsk and Shirokino. Meanwhile, the junta is very shaky. Usually, when a dictator gets shaky, the US eliminates him and puts in a bigger, badder guy. (Vietnam, Diem and Ngo were assassinated by General Big Minh). How did that work out? It actually led to JFK’s own elimination.Ultimately, General Giap wore down everyone and took the South in a month.
The US CIA (General Secord and Richard Armitage) went to help the Savak in Iran. How did that help the Shah? He was done very rapidly.
Putin is opening the door in Kiev for the US to do the same to the junta.
If you think the game is military, you are not looking at the game board Putin is playing.
I said several times in the past, this is not Chess. This is GO.
He has the US and NATO in a war they cannot win, and Russia will never lose. And if they never lose, they will own Ukraine.
It’s not about taking the king (Kiev). It’s about controlling the fiefdom (Ukraine). That’s GO.
GO? Is that a game? Could you clarify please?
“GO” is the Chinese name, translates to “encircling”. It is available on the internet to play against the computer. Two players put down stones or markers, the one encircling the larger area of board wins. All kinds of move restrictions, captures possible (cauldron style).
According to Cassad, the SBU people being moved out are CIA backed while Poroshenko is State Department backed, so it’s a rearrangement of whose backers are on top, ie how priorities and tactics are hanging in the US. We must remember there is a US election next year and it has to look good for that, too (whatever they can spin as being a good look… Obama doesn’t want to go out looking a loser).
Go is the most amazing board game ever. There is a famous anime about it. Check it out here:
Hirkaru no Go, Ep. 01, english subs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6D8_vZ4zJk
Good point about Go, Larchmonter.
About Go, a quote:
“Go is to Western chess what philosophy is to double-entry accounting.”
― Trevanian, Shibumi
Thanks ..good metaphor…Go for it.
Chess is about area, mobility, and material for those who are good at it, with checkmate almost an afterthought, but go is also good for analogy — but the real game is geopolitical war, and Russia with Putin is a grandmaster at that, including military, economics, and politics, while the US is a troop of clowns who can’t keep their own act straight among themselves because they spend so much time admiring themselves in front of a mirror.
Here’s a comprehensive (useful for beginners) website that can explain, edify and teach you GO.
http://senseis.xmp.net/?StartingPoints
It began in China (weiqi) and is best known in Japan and Korea. It is played wherever these peoples live, so it is worldwide.
Far beyond Chess. Far beyond the power of computers. But sublimely possible for humans.
There are apps for it on iPad.
What is nice is it does not have a cultural bias, no kings and queens, just stones and spaces and proximities and loci.
Elegant.
Enjoy…
Poroshenko and Yats giggle behind the back of boxer klitchko as he dons police cap and addresses new police recruits in Kiev, who have received new uniforms which remind everyone of the guys in the police academy comedies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=37&v=83fT4TGpRO0