Check out this al-Jazeera report:
Does anybody in Iran seriously think that Russia’s stance towards the Iranian Gucci Revolution can influence the outcome of the struggle for power in Iran?
Of course not.
Sure, Russia sells technology and weapons to Iran, but such contracts are dwarfed by the oil contracts many other countries signed with Iran. So what is the big deal here?
The big deal is, of course, that the top Guccis are all actively courting the rabidly russophobic regimes in the USA and Israel, while the “street-level” demonstrators have clearly fully absorbed the anti-Russian propaganda of the West. “Death to Russia” is not so much an expression of grievances (real or imagined) towards Russia’s policies, as it is a kind of oblique “pledge of allegiance” to the USraelien empire and its political agenda.
Iran’s got a long history with Russia. Not a pleasant one either. No Iranian trusts Russia, and no one I know would get worked up about someone using that type of language. So the slogan may be Russophobic but not out of synch with general feeling. The sandal isn’t that they chanted ‘death to russia’ but that they refused to chant ‘death to america’.
Masoud
@Masoud: So the slogan may be Russophobic but not out of synch with general feeling
Which is rather sad, since Russia is, objectively, the best possible ally for Iran. Sure, Iran and Russia did have some very bad episodes in their common past, but both countries were, at the time, run by regimes which really have nothing in common with modern Russia or modern Iran.
This should not be an issue of trust. For example, many Russians do remember the rather myopic policy of Iran towards the war in Bosnia, but what is past is past. Far more important is the objective community of interests these two countries now share (along with Latin America and, to a lesser degree, China).
Making an inventory of perceived past sins is plain counterproductive at this moment in history.
For Iranians today to chant “Death to Russia” is not unlike chanting “death to Iran” as should Russia “die” – Iran would find itself very very lonely indeed.
I find it unlikely that there is any intense hatred towards Russia in Iran today. There is likely mistrust, but that is due to Russia’s foot dragging on completing Bushehr and its willingness to go along with various UNSC resolutions, albeit greatly watered down.
In other words, the mistrust is from Russia’s perceived failure to give Iran 100% backing against the west and not from Russia’s failure to support the Musavi opposition.
I seriously doubt that anyone today is mad at Russia because Stalin invaded Iran in the 1940’s.
Saker,
Russia is no different from the US or China for that matter. It’s policies in the fairly recent past were not much better than imperial Britan’s, and to this day the Russian leadership would no doubt sell out Iran in a heartbeat if they could reach an accomadation with Europe and the US. Every world power acts in self interest but it’s a select few(mostly western) who register acts with such a disregard for humanity as Russia, US et al. Take a look at how Russia largely invented azerbijani nationalism in order to destroy Iranian national sentiment in the province that they annexed from Iran in the late 1800’s. Now that ideology has become a natural conduit for some very xenophobic strains of pan-turkism, which strains relations between all sorts of ethnic groups in that area(Armenian, Kurd, Iranian etc). That is a direct Iran specific example, but of cours Russia has even more odious histories elsewhere, from the invasion of Afghanistan, to it’s crimes in Chechnia throughout the last century, to the generally disgusting state it left all it’s centrall asian ‘provinces’ in. This all betrays levels of Racism no better than continental Europes. In the modern day they are happy to, for example sabatoge their own work on the Busher nuclear plant, or play coy with weapons contracts they have signed, or even go along with the US sanctions from time to time when they beleive it suits them. They are just as comfortable dealing with Israel as with Iran.
None of this is brought up in the spirit of xenophobia, and i don’t think ant-russian xenophobia either does or should exist in Iran righSaker,
Russia is no different from the US or China for that matter. It’s policies in the fairly recent past were not much better than imperial Britan’s, and to this day the Russian leadership would no doubt sell out Iran in a heartbeat if they could reach an accomadation with Europe and the US. Every world power acts in self interest but it’s a select few(mostly western) who register acts with such a disregard for humanity as Russia, US et al. Take a look at how Russia largely invented azerbijani nationalism in order to destroy Iranian national sentiment in the province that they annexed from Iran in the late 1800’s. Now that ideology has become a natural conduit for some very xenophobic strains of pan-turkism, which strains relations between all sorts of ethnic groups in that area(Armenian, Kurd, Iranian etc). That is a direct Iran specific example, but of cours Russia has even more odious histories elsewhere, from the invasion of Afghanistan, to it’s crimes in Chechnia throughout the last century, to the generally disgusting state it left all it’s centrall asian ‘provinces’ in. This all betrays levels of Racism no better than continental Europes. In the modern day they are happy to, for example sabatoge their own work on the Busher nuclear plant, or play coy with weapons contracts they have signed, or even go along with the US sanctions from time to time when they beleive it suits them. They are just as comfortable dealing with Israel as with Iran. That is an odious record, Iran pursuing policies in the Balkans which aren’t necesarily alinged with Russian clients is neither any business of Russia’s nor even that or destructive or significant in the long run. Quite small potatoes by comparison.
None of this is brought up in the spirit of xenophobia, and i don’t think ant-russian xenophobia either does or should exist in Iran right now. I just wanted to point out that this kind of talk isn’t neccesarily along the same lines of stupdidty as the guccis blaming their woes on hezbollah.
You’re point that Russia isn’t currently intefering in Iran’s internal affairs and is therefore less of a problem at the moment is dead on. Guccis seemed to be less concerned about external interference, and more with finding new people to hate, (they also refused to chant ‘death to Israel’, and ‘death to England’ and ‘Death to Monafeqin’, the last one reffers to the MEK terrorist group, all standard chants)
Masoud
@Masoud: I could argue with a lot of what you wrote, in particular about Azerbaijan (which, to be fully understood, would need a discussion about oil and Western corporations, the role of Turkey, the situation with Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, the role of Osama Bin-Laden’s fighters in pushing Wahabism into Azerbaijan, the role the CIA played in putting Aliev into power etc. etc. etc.), but that would be really besides the point. We would probably absolutely disagree about Chechnia and Russia’s policies towards it during the Eltsin and Putin eras (the policies were dramatically different), but that would be again besides the point. I would just mention that Iran objectively supported Russia’s stance and policies in Chechnia. I have personally talked to Russian, shall we say, ‘cultural exchange participants’ who told me that Iran’s position was quite unambiguous about Chechnia. They were told that:
a) Chechen “Islam” as nothing to do with the real Islam. It is a mixture of Wahabism, modernism and Caucasian *pagan* tradition foreign to Islam
b) that the Chechen leaders were criminal mobsters who should be hunted down and wiped out
c) that the Chechen leaders are de-facto CIA agents run via the British and al-Qaeda networks.
d) that Iran fully understand the national security imperative for Russia to prevent a “Chechen Republic of Ichkeria” from appearing inside its borders
Bottom line: Iran has no beef with Russia whatsoever over the Chechen issue. And that was at a time when the entire West was engaged in a huge campaign of protest against Russian “crimes” in Chechnia essentially accusing Russia of “genocide”.
I would add that the Russians I spoke to had contacts with key Iranian think tanks and religious authorities. They were, in fact, go-between between some influential Russian and Iranian political forces.
But I am disgressing here.
As I have written many times on this blog, Russia is run by absolutely ruthless rulers who can be best described as a blend of ex-KGB types with mobsters. And yes, Russia will bargain with the Empire to see if it can leverage some advantage for itself over its policy in Iran. So I while I am in disagreement with your view of history, I do not dispute your view of Russian rulers. But none of that changes the basic fact that Russia is objectively Iran’s best and most needed ally today. That is as much a reflection of what Russia has to offer as it is a reflection of the paucity of other allies.
Take one example: Iran has made a formal application to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Make no mistake here: this is a Russian run organization. Not only that, but a huge aspect of its ‘cooperation’ is military, intelligence and political. It is, in fact, something of an anti-NATO alliance.
The two ‘heavyweights’ of the SCO are Russia and China and they, by the way, have no great love for each other either. But they are pragmatic and they understand that they need each other.
For Iran, the complexity of the India-Pakistan-China triangle make China a less desirable/important potential partner. Basically, China is “busy elsewhere”. Not so with Russia and I think that Iran understands this perfectly.
The main problem for Iran at the current moment is that Iran needs Russia far more than Russia needs Iran. Hence the cynical Russian attempts to play both the Imperial card and the Iranian card.
The good news is that the USralien Empire is acting with such blind stupidity that it is literally “pushing” Russia to side with and embrace Iran.
Yes, Russia is no Hezbollah and Iran cannot, and should not, “trust” it. However, Russia is, objectively, the single biggest power which can challenge the USraelian Empire’s hegemony. And that makes it the single most important country on the planet for Iran.
Cheers!
Saker,
Chechnia is one of the few countries(only perhaps?) in the world were the dominant faith is Sufi Islam, which is one of the mildest creeds anywhere(basically, it’s muslim mysticism).
During recent times however, the bin ladenites were able to acheive a great amount of influence among in chechnya, because they were the only ones willing to support the chechens militarily and financially. This influence is with sections of the militant groups, not the population at large. Iran is very hostile towards wahabbism, their position on chechnia is consistent with that, but I have heard that the decrease in violence is due at least in part to Iranian behind-the-scenes diplomacy and mediation, akin to their actions in Tajikistan.(don’t know how much weight to put on it)
The history with chechnia I was talking about was USSR era, 60’s i think, where among other things nearly the entire chechen population was sent to live in internal exile in the USSR. Much like any other current conflict, the Chechen conflict has roots that go past the 90s.
I’m not saying that Iran needs negative relations with Russia or ignor it, just that it has it’s share of problems with Russia as well, it’s history of treachery vis-a-vis Iran is no less well developed than the continental European powers, even now it and it’s successor states are refusing to abide by previously signed agreements Iran regarding the Caspian sea for example.
I think Iran has been an ‘observer’ at the SCO for nearly four years now. They don’t want to piss off Nato, so they are keeping Iran out, and so as not to offend Iran they have stopped anyone else from joining too! The SCO has a long way to go, not to mention a spine to grow, before it becomes a significant player.
Incidentally, I think the future of Iran-China ties looks a whole lot more promising. China needs oil and natural gas, and Saudi belongs to the US. There is a great deal of investment already underway, and Chnia is now eclipsing Europe in both trade and FDI in Iran. I don’t see how the politics of the sub-continent could put any real breaks on it.
Though you I agree with alot of what you say, i think the last bit about rallying behind Russia so as to be able to challenge the US is way off. It’s been tried before, it was called the cold war, and it was a total disaster for everyone involved, especially Russia. Best option forward is focusing on building up and unifying NAM states, ie I think Iran’s policies in the Americas, and hopefully sooner rather than later, Africa, are right on the money.
cheers,
Masoud
@Masoud:Chechnia is one of the few countries(only perhaps?) in the world were the dominant faith is Sufi Islam, which is one of the mildest creeds anywhere(basically, it’s muslim mysticism).
Not quite true for two reasons. There are other countries, such as Kazakhstan, where Islam is primarily of the Sufi tradition, but even more relevantly, the type of “Islam” which the Chechen separatist leaders tried to impose on the Republic was not Sufi, but Wahabi (an antithesis, really).
I have heard that the decrease in violence is due at least in part to Iranian behind-the-scenes diplomacy and mediation, akin to their actions in Tajikistan.(don’t know how much weight to put on it)
I have heard the same rumors. Again, Iran and Russia have, objectively, the same interests and the same enemies (The Empire and the Wahabis). I know for a fact that Iran and Russia both and simultaneously back the Northern Alliance with the USA went after the Taliban. Again, this was not some pro-US policy, but a clear recognition that the Taliban threatened both Russia and Iran. Russian and Iranian special ops even fought side by side or, at least, in the same front.
The history with chechnia I was talking about was USSR era, 60’s i think, where among other things nearly the entire chechen population was sent to live in internal exile in the USSR
That was not in the 1960, but during World War 2, under Stalin, and the Chechens were not the only ones to be deported, the same thing happened, for example, to the Volga Germans. Besides, Stalin butchered many more Russians than Chechens, so really that kind of tallying is not helpful at all (except to the Empire and its policy of “divide and conquer
I think Iran has been an ‘observer’ at the SCO for nearly four years now. They don’t want to piss off Nato, so they are keeping Iran out
Not so. Iran only applied for full membership in March 2008. That kind of stuff takes time, that has nothing to do with NATO.
Incidentally, I think the future of Iran-China ties looks a whole lot more promising.
Maybe, but I doubt it. China has a lot of economic potential,for sure, but it does not have the political power which Russia can muster. In fact, China is dependent on Russia for is military modernization. Most importantly, the Empire does not fear China (remember how Clinton send US carriers into the Taiwan straits at a moment of tension). But the Empire definitely fears Russia, even more so after the NATO debacle in Georgia.
But anyway – SCO “delivers” both China and Russia.
It’s been tried before, it was called the cold war, and it was a total disaster for everyone involved, especially Russia.
Again, these were different times. Russia was a Communist state, and the Shah was a US puppet. After the Islamic Revolution, the Tudeh was rapidly crushed anyway. And it is not like being an ally of modern Russia has anything to do with being inside the Soviet sphere of influence during the Cold War.
Times have changed, Masoud, they have changed A LOT. That is also why the NAM has become utterly powerless and irrelevant, by the way. These are old realities, I think. What all the countries involved need to do is to *pragmatically* look *forward* on not chew on past disputes or situations.
Kind regards,
The Saker
“The good news is that the USralien Empire is acting with such blind stupidity that it is literally “pushing” Russia to side with and embrace Iran.”
What I had feared when Obama was elected was that he would be smart enough to offer a sweet deal to Russia in exchange for Iran on a platter. In fact, I almost secretly hoped for a McCain victory to prevent that. As it turns out, my fears were unfounded. The empire wants everything from everyone in exchange for nothing. Even if Obama’s inclination is to compromise, he couldn’t do it.
From the empire’s POV, Russia is by far the bigger long term threat than Iran, (though Iran is not small beer.) A ‘realist’ would employ the cold war tactic of soliciting Iran’s help against Russia. For, Russia that would be a disaster. Lucky for them, the Israel lobby will fight that tooth and nail. That is probably the only dispute between between the “Brzezynski” camp and the neocon camp.
For a while, it looked as the realist camp was willing to make some concessions to Iran to get them to flip. But with the election’s aftermath, everyone in Washington seems convince, rightly or wrongly, that Iran’s government can be toppled and they can get something for nothing.
No one will compromise now…unless the situation is Afghanistan seriously deteriorates and the NATO army there is at risk.
@Lysander: From the empire’s POV, Russia is by far the bigger long term threat than Iran, (though Iran is not small beer.) A ‘realist’ would employ the cold war tactic of soliciting Iran’s help against Russia. For, Russia that would be a disaster. Lucky for them, the Israel lobby will fight that tooth and nail. That is probably the only dispute between between the “Brzezynski” camp and the neocon camp.
As always, Lysander, you make very good points. And yes, having Iran make a deal with the Empire would be very bad news for Russia as that would effectively hand over the Middle-East to the Empire, and also place a major threat to Russian interests in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
I see both Russia and Iran vital to the Resistance to the Empire. Though Russian could do without Iran, it would be *extremely* difficult as the Empire could re-allocate its ressources towards, say, the Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan – you name it.
As for Obama vs. McCaine – we changed puppets, but the same (stupid) pupetteers which ran Dubya are still running the show. So far – Obama has changed exactly *nothing* in US foreign policy.
Sure, he made a good speech in Cairo, followed by another good speech in Russia. But on substance he changed *nothing*. And then he sent this moron Biden to Ukraine and Georgia [rolleyes].
Nah, the Empire is too stupid, to dominated by Zionists interests, to skillfully play of Iran and Russia against each other. Unless, of course, the Russians and the Iranians do it to themselves…
(which, as long as Khamenei and Medvedev are in power ain’t happening)
Cheers!
VS
Lysander: “What I had feared when Obama was elected was that he would be smart enough to offer a sweet deal to Russia in exchange for Iran on a platter”
Just before Obama’s arrival in Moscow Russian officials declared that there would be no exchange deals with the States in regard to altering Russian politics on Iran.
Masoud: “It’s policies in the fairly recent past were not much better than imperial Britain’s, and to this day the Russian leadership would no doubt sell out Iran in a heartbeat if they could reach an accommodation with Europe and the US”
Let me see. Accommodation with Europe and The US you say? And what accommodation might that be?
1. Georgia and Ukraine stay out of NATO and the West can have Iran as much as they want?
Could that be the one?
Or
2. The US abandons it’s AMD plans in exchange to Russia’s abandon of Iran?
Is that all? Or could the Russians trade Iran for anything else? Like WTO membership for instance?
Looks like nothing the Russians can’t manage on their own. And besides, Russia knows pretty well that one can’t trade with the West. No one can.
The West just doesn’t accept equals. That’s what’s required when you trade.
Russia is very pragmatic. And Iran is Russia’s natural ally. Just as Russia is Iranian natural ally.
And still I think that the US has a good chance to destabilise Iran and mess it up. Will Russia interfere militarily? No way. Russia needs a stable and friendly Iran true. And it will do it’s best allying with China to keep it that way but it is up to the Iranians to straighten their country up. And it’s not a matter of a few S300 which will or will not be delivered by Russia. S300 will not stop the West. The very existence of Russia is a much more deterrent for the US/Israel to think of a striking on Iran if the internal situation in the country is stable and controlled by the government. But they would be much bolder if Iran gets unstable. Russia will not help here much. It still has a long way to go and build up it’s own confidence first. It will strike if it’s own immediate national interests are at stake just like it happened back in August 2008. And it will strike no matter who is involved.
I agree with Lysander that Israel lobby will fight any US attempt of soliciting Iran’s help against Russia. And that’s good for Russia. I see Iran more as a soft spot here not Russia.
that the gucci crowd was chanting death to russia(why drag russia into a voting issue>>) tells you alot about who they are and their political and economic orientation.
Brian