by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog
Is the attack on ARAMCO the first of a long war or is it game-over already? It seems like the latter and in more ways than one, the war between Iran and Saudi Arabia has ended before it even started. One single solitary Houthi attack on Aramco has sent Saudi oil exports tumbling down by half; not to mention a 20% hike on the price of crude.
Now, even though the Houthis have declared responsibility for the ARAMCO attack, the Trump administration wants the world to buy the idea that it was Iran who launched the attack, not the Houthis. https://sputniknews.com/us/201909191076835893-pompeo-attack-saudi-oil-facilities-act-war-iran/. This far, at least Japan seems unconvinced, and so is France https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201909191076835540-japan–no-evidence-iran-behind-attack-saudi-aramco-facilities/
In reality however, the resolve of Saudi Arabia and its capability to stand up and fight has little to do with the identity of the attacker, and this is because Saudi Arabia has demonstrated that it didn’t take much for it to suffer what it suffered. This begs the question; how many such similar attacks can Saudi Arabia weather before it totally capitulates? Seemingly, not many.
In a previous article, I anticipated such scenarios because the Saudi economy and infrastructure are highly vulnerable. A country that has virtually one major wealth-producing base (ie oil) and just a few desalination plants that pump fresh water into its major cities, is a very soft target indeed. After all, if those handful of vital targets are hit, not only oil exports will stop, but water will stop running in households. http://10.16.86.131/dissecting-the-unfathomable-american-iranian-war/. But the water desalination plants do not have to suffer a direct hit for them to stop running. They need power to run, and the power comes from fuel, and if the fuel supplies stop, so will they, and so will electricity-generating plants in a nation that cannot survive without air-conditioning.
Up until recently, people of Arabia were used to drought, brackish water and searing heat. They lived in and around oases and adopted a lifestyle that used little water. But, the new generation of Saudis and millions of expats are used to daily showers, potable water and climate control in their households. During wars, people normally go to nature to find food and water. They hunt, they fish, they collect local berries and edible wild plants, they fill jars from running rivers and streams, they grow their own vegetables in their backyards, but in Saudi Arabia, in the kingdom of sand, such alternatives do not exist at all.
Furthermore, with a population that has swelled from a few million in the 1950’s, the current population of Saudi Arabia stands at 33 million, and this includes the millions of expats who work and live there
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Saudi_Arabia. The limited supply of brackish water is not enough to get by until any damaged infrastructure is fixed, and it’s not even piped to begin with.
As the nation with the third highest global defence budget, higher than Russia’s, Saudi Arabia continues to import everything from Patriot Missiles all the way down to bullets.
This is in sharp contrast with Iran’s geography, natural assets and demography. Iran is a nation of mountains, valleys and rivers, meadows, thriving agriculture and 70 million citizens who have been taught to be innovative and self-sufficient; courtesy of US-imposed sanctions.
And to say that the ARAMCO target was hit by surprise would be quite absurd and inexcusable given that Saudi Arabia is already in a state of war with Yemen, and especially given that the Yemeni aerial strikes have been escalating in recent months. To make the situation even more embarrassing for the Saudis; the spectre of war with Iran is currently hot on the agenda, so how could key Saudi installations be unprotected?
But here’s the other thing, had it been truly Iran that was responsible for the attack as the Trump administration alleges and wants us to believe, America would then be admitting that Iranian missiles flew from mainland Iran, across the Gulf, managed to dodge American defences and state-of-the-art detection hardware and software, and effectively reached their target on Saudi soil. If this is the scenario Trump wants us to believe, what does this say about the capability of America to engage militarily with Iran? This is a much bigger farce than that of Russia-gate; a claim that Russia can indeed affect the outcome of the presidential elections of the allegedly “greatest and strongest nation on earth”. Do such claims mean that America’s adversaries are extremely organised, smart and strong or that America is in disarray, stupid and weak; or both? Either way, when such claims are perpetrated by none but America itself, they certainly do not put America in a good light.
The weaknesses and vulnerabilities of Saudi Arabia and Big Brother are only matched by the other ally, the UAE. As a matter of fact Houthis spokesperson Yahia Saria gave the Emirates a stern warning if they want to protect their glass skyscrapers. https://www.rt.com/news/469104-houthis-new-drones-attack-uae/ . In his address, Saria is perhaps giving a tongue-in-cheek reference to the Arabic proverb which says that if one’s house is made of glass, he should not cast rocks at others. After years of indiscriminate shelling under the watchful and indifferent eyes of the world, after years of ruthlessly trying to starve the Yemenis into submission, why would one expect the Houthis to exercise any mercy towards their aggressors?
But let us face it, Dubai and other thriving metropolises of the UAE are predestined to morph into ghost towns. It is only a question of time before they run out of their current charm and their fake onion skin deep glitter. After all, there is nothing in those fantasy cities that is real, substantial and self-sustaining. If anything, a war with Iran has the potential to fast-track the decay process and leave foreign investors and expats exiting in droves; if not running for their lives.
Ironically, the American/Saudi/UAE alliance, if it is indeed an alliance, accuses Iran of spreading its dominion over the region; and perhaps there is evidence to support this accusation. However, the alliance seems to conveniently forget that it was its own orchestrated invasion of Iraq and toppling of Saddam that created a power vacuum in Iraq that was soon filled by Iran. And even though the eight-year long and bitter Iran-Iraq war ended up with no winners or losers, the fall of Saddam at the hands of the American/Arab alliance has turned Iran into the virtual winner that the same alliance is now trying to curb. How more ironic can this farcical situation be?
America plays down the strength of Iran’s Army, and Iran does the opposite. This is normal and part-and-parcel of the psychological warfare. In reality however, no one knows for certain what is Iran’s military capability. For this reason, any all-out confrontation with Iran may at least initially sway America to move its vessels out of the Gulf and further away from the reach of short-range Iranian missiles until and if they feel confident to move closer at a later stage. However, Saudi ground and key and vital ground targets cannot be moved, and for Iran to only be able to hit a few that can be counted on the fingers of one hand, can lead to a total Saudi/UAE capitulation.
Whilst no one knows Iran’s real strength, what we do know is that Saudi Arabia has failed abysmally in defeating the much weaker, poorer, underprivileged starving people of Yemen.
America will not commit boots on the ground and, to this effect, has little to lose apart from risking naval vessels. The soft targets will be Saudi and UAE key infrastructures and no Patriot defence systems will be able to intercept all missiles poised to hit them. If the Houthis could do it, it is a given that Iran also can.
I have recently watched the series “The Vietnam War” on Netflix, and I remembered how back then when the truth about that war was exposed, I believed that American hawks would never get away with lying to their people and the rest of the world again, or ever invade another country in the way that they did with Vietnam. In less than two decades however, they moved full throttle into Iraq, and the masses believed their story. Perhaps some things will never change, and after the losses in Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, America seems still determined to fight Iran. This time around, the biggest loser may not end up to be America itself, but its Arab allies; namely Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the recent attack on ARAMCO is only a prelude to an inevitable outcome, because the writing is already on the wall and it clearly reads: GAME-OVER.
“the fall of Saddam at the hands of the American/Arab alliance has turned Iran into the virtual winner that the same alliance is now trying to curb. How more ironic can this farcical situation be? ”
Absolutely !
This is what corruption, arrogance and being an oppressor does !
They are not even capable of preserving their own interests. It is a very well known phenomenon which can range from occurring on an individual level as well as societal or national levels.
Its really amazing that people all around the world can watch daily (live) how very wealthy and powerful countries dig their own graves at a historically very fast rate.
Yes especially if you strip your own culture of the few things that actually made you strong: rip away God, ethics, common sense, rip away personal responsibility, civility, hard work, respect for rules, honestly, accountability, honor, self sacrifice, unity, etc. respect for women, respect for men, respect for the elderly and love of children. And socially reengineer a society to become selfish (,each individual must only pursue their self interest, welcome to the what destroyed sub Saharan Africa), disunited (get women to hate men, men to hate and distrust women, promote gays at the expense of people of normal sexual orientation, and at the expense of children, promote racial hatred by promoting white-victimhhood (Fox News) and black victimhood (CNN), etc.), have perverted sexual values, immorality, amorality (especially amorality!), Promote superficiality, duplicitousness, shallow behavior, worshipping of fame, arrogance and bling, make obvious lying acceptable and call it public relations, where asskissing is desirable…. Do all of that to your population and you are finished and your society will rapidly circle the drain.
This is how the liberal elites of the West and their increasingly stupid inheritors have undermined and corroded their own power. Power in the hands of dysfunctional billionaire families spreading their own sick twisted degenerate dysfunction and warped values to the rest of society.
If the US does attack Iran, we shall get a repeat of Iraq, this time in Saudi Arabia. The US-Saudi-UAE alliance is a big joke, based on wishful thinking. The US does not have any significant number of troops close to Iran, while the Saudi military is nothing more than the Saudi version of the Roman Praetorian Guard, whose first duty is to guard the Saudi Royal family, the country coming second in importance. With such psychological conditioning, the Saudi military performed poorly in Yemen, where it never expected to be sent. You even had cases of Yemeni troops penetrating into Saudi Arabia and Saudi troops fleeing..
Can the US wage a conventional war against Iran ? Only theoretically. It would need to assemble more than half a million men, as it did when it attacked Iraq the first time. It would also need to have complete control of the air, which in Iran would be almost impossible, due to Iran’s high tech, imported from Russia and domestically produced. A conventional attack against Iran would see huge losses of US aircraft, while combat operations on the ground would see the full might of the Iranian military, not to mention geographic obstacles, as the country has geographic similarities to that of Afghanistan and North Korea.
This leaves the possibility of a cruise missile attack by the US, backed by the US Air Force from a safe distance. A foolish thing o do. When the US attacked Syria on two occasions, the bulk of US Tomahawks were either destroyed in the air, or else intercepted and turned in other directions by electronic methods. Iran would of course retaliate, with catastrophic results for Saudi Arabia if it’s oil and water facilities were struck. The country would probably break up, with analysts already stating that in the end it will indeed break up, combat or no combat.
So, what is going to happen ? Currently probably nobody knows. Washington is very tempted to attack Iran,
due to it’s immense oil and gas deposits, by the fact that it is preparing to abandon the US dollar in international transactions, and also by the fact that it’s about to join the Euro-Asian Economic Union, an organization Washington and Wall Street want to destroy. However, Washington must know what the consequences would be. Then again, Washington’s belligerent attitude towards North Korea, Venezuela and Iran cannot last for ever. The chief factor in all of this is the role played by the neocons in Washington, and their role in the US Government. We shall see what will happen.
“So, what is going to happen ? Currently probably nobody knows. Washington is very tempted to attack Iran,…”
Nuclear weapons.
Only they will call it tactical nukes.
What happens the day after nuclear weapons become ‘ok’ ? Once Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Syria, Libya, Egypt, North Korea etc. Realise that a nuclear defense is their only option and there is a real likelyhood that they will have to face a nuclear attack one day from the US?
I think the Americans will stop well before opening that Pandora’s box.
Is there even a remote possibility that when the “red buttons” are pressed, the missiles carrying these “tactical” nuclear weapons will fail to perform as advertised? ? ?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EHYJew0XTMk
This is a longish podcast, watch it when you can afford the time.
Our world has been hi-jacked by people who think that the left hand of God promotes evil and so, even doing evil, they believe they are doing God’s work.
Do watch and share.
The handwriting is on the wall for the would be Mideast controllers. Their victims have learned to fight back effectively.
Yes, America may be going into its Stalingrad….no winter coats, certain it’ll be over by Christmas with the Caucasus oil in our hands.
It just happened this this was was reported just a few hours after the article was published. It speaks volumes
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201909191076839792-us-air-defence-systems-couldnt-repel-attack-on-saudi-aramco-oil-facilities–russian-mod/
A tad more detail as to the uselessness of the American aid defense systems (in this case, ineffective=useless); three us destroyers were in proximity of attack. air defense systems not effective.
https://tass.com/world/1078916
This reminds me of the defence of Singapore where all the guns faced the sea. The invading Japanese simply marched down from Malaya, and the British surrendered.
Actually the Japanese rode into Singapore on their bicicles…
Here is an article that looks at how key Republicans are trying to convince America’s pro-Israel Christians that a war with Iran is essential:
https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2019/07/christians-united-for-israel-how.html
This “turning of plowshares into swords”, particularly when it comes to Iran, stands in complete opposition to what evangelical Christians claim to believe in their religious lives.
Thanks for the link Sally, that unconditional support of Israelby zionistic cristians is something like foxchicken support of foxhole in chicken’s backyard.
The Christian Zionists do not love Jews. They only use Israel as a means to precipitate the End Times, in which eschatological nightmare not only will all the ‘godless’ be destroyed, but so too any Jews that refuse to convert. Even Hitler did succeed in extirpating Jewry entirely, like these ‘friends’ wish to do.
‘Evangelical’ Christians are to the doctrines of Jesus as Wahhabist butchers are to the teachings of Islam.
absolutely – fundamentalism in all its various forms are a tool of the Dark
Fundamentalisms in all religions eg Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism etc, always end up as the antitheses of those religions’ better teachings. Other religions, like capitalism, are rotten through and through, but have evolved into ever more malignant forms.
Thank you for excellent article.
Additionally all imported slave labourers, (in essence modern day slaves) will rebel in nastiest ways. This absolutely applies to Saudi, Bahrain and Dubai.
@Perhaps some things will never change, and after the losses in Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, America seems still determined to fight Iran
Isn’t that the illustration of (misattributed to) Einstein dictum: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”?
Decent article from Kadi. The people quoted in this article have similar views:
Accepting Houthi Responsibility for Saudi Oil Attack Means Admitting Riyadh’s War in Yemen Failed
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201909201076843679-accepting-houthi-responsibility-for-saudi-oil-attack-means-admitting-riyadhs-war-in-yemen-failed/
“I make a very serious statement about defending our country,” the foreign minister said. “I’m making a very serious statement that we don’t want war, we don’t want to engage in a military confrontation. We believe that a military confrontation based on deception is awful. We’ll have a lot of casualties, but we won’t blink to defend our territory.”
“They want to put the blame on Iran for something, and that is why I’m saying this is agitation for war,” Zarif continued, noting the Yemeni Houthis had claimed responsibility for the attack despite US insistence it was Iran’s doing.
“You believe that the United States is omnipotent and the United States’ military equipment are flawless, and that is why a bunch of people with no access to anything cannot defeat that. Well I’m going to tell you: it’s going to be news for you, and it’s going to continue to be news for you that people can do a lot of things when they are desperate … that gives you a lot of creativity, a lot of tenacity,” Zarif said, defending the ability of the Houthis to carry out the attack.
“They throw everything at it for the last four-and-a-half years, and the result has been further death, further destruction, further ordinary, innocent lives being … destroyed, and not moving forward even an inch,” Shadjareh told hosts Brian Becker and John Kiriakou. “Therefore, it’s really obvious to everyone that the only solution is a political solution, and they’re not willing to have a political solution.”
“What has resulted, when we saw this attack on Saturday, there was only one way that the US and Saudi Arabia could go, is to blame Iran, there is no other alternatives for that. No matter who did it they would have blamed Iran, because they need to get out of this hellhole they have created for themselves,” Shadjareh said. “But I think by blaming Iran, they’re not really finding a way out, they’re actually digging themselves further into a hellhole.”
“If we don’t find a solution to this, if we don’t find a way to resolve not just this rhetoric that has been going on for the last few days in media … then we are going to, by default, come closer to a horrible war that, by its definition, cannot be limited to anything. It’s going to be all-out,” Shadjareh warned.
“I think the international community, and indeed, the United States, both of the houses [of Congress], need to get involved, because Trump’s policy is totally bankrupt. Trump’s policy will not only destroy people in the Middle East and bring more death and destruction, but it will actually bring suffering to people in the United States,” Shadjareh told Sputnik. “From what I’m seeing, it really is a fool trying to play a game which already is seen to be totally bankrupt, and it will not get anywhere.”
How stupid can the empire be for constantly smiling when they talk about the possibility of nuclear war with every country they oppress. No!.. I am not talking about them playing stupid…they really are stupid people. Frightening is a very mild word to describe the fast declining number of half-sane people still remain within the power structure. It also can be translated as nuclear war is reaching its state of inevitability.
Still, it is irrelevant to me, if and only if I am a really smart person who see things through and through for the total sum of everything where things fall into its rightful place. It is like the state bliss we feel over a newfound mathematical formula that function accurately with any given numbers every time (fall into its rightful place).
If nuclear war is one of the variable within the formula, be it…if I perish, be it. After all, the total sum is always rightful.
For now I will not fight against the possibility of nuclear war or against the people who are dreaming about it. I will fight against my stupidity instead. One stupidity a time….
I feel you. The words of a recent internet sensation, a choc. milk drinking sage named Gavin, his message rings true for me, esp these insane times..
+ Think about respect
+ Understand how sh*t works in the world (a respectful, ethical world which does exist!)
These simple tenets could go a long way to bringing these people to heel, at least find a way to get along with others and open their minds to alternative possibilities (in an infinite universe, is absolutely quite possible!)
Honestly don’t mean to make light of the prospects of nuclear war, but I am of the belief that reason and respect are still possible even amongst the higher echelons of power here in the belly of the beast (USA). It brings me peace knowing there are forces working for the general good of society, civilization. This has to “become a thing” or phenomenon.
Respect and understanding. It’s something that these concepts are lost on our ruling class, and people do tend to mirror this ignorance (willful or otherwise) which breeds its opposite.
Source, reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/ChocolateMilkGuy
Saudi air defenses like Patriot & Aegis don’t match their advertised properties, unfit for real combat – Russian Army (MAP)
https://www.rt.com/news/469174-saudi-patriots-unfit-combat/
“Benefiting from the US arms deliveries, Saudi Arabia managed to build up “the most powerful air defense system in the region that provides full radar coverage,” a high-ranking Russian military source stated on Thursday.
Nowadays, there are 88 Patriot launchers – 52 of which are the newest PAC-3 version – shielding Saudi Arabia’s northern border, he said. In addition to that, three guided missile destroyers, armed with 100 SM-2 missiles, are traversing Persian Gulf waters off Saudi shores.”
Map showing saudi ad:
https://cdni.rt.com/files/2019.09/original/5d83c0ce85f5405a276bc7ce.jpg
“Locations of Saudi and Emirati Patriot launchers (circles: detection zone, red: kill zone) based on data from a Russian Ministry of Defense source. © RT”
Reminds me of the declared Incompetence of Tony Abbott’s #RAAF who’s #AWACS Early Warning Radar Operators on Christmas Island claimed to have all “Fallen Asleep” when #MH370 Flew Over (Heading to Land safety at Diego Garcia which was the only Airstrip within Range to Refuel in order to Fly up the Atlantic after rounding Africa over Antarctica) while Military Exercises were taking place in the Straits of Malacca
Game Over?
Not yet.
The nuclear option is the only available option for the US.
The US has a track record of using nuclear weapons.
the US is not going to drop a nuclear bomb on the perpetrators of this oil facility strike…no way…its all huff and puff – now they’re sending a few hundred foot soldiers to Saudi Arabia – to get drunk and rape a few maids there – and then it will blow over like before…
Much appreciate your thoughtful analysis Ghassan. Saudi Arabia is getting some richly deserved payback for the horrors it has inflicted on Yemen, with, as we all know here, the full support of the Anglo Zionist Empire, including blockading Yemeni ports and providing military advisors to help direct the slaughter. That the slime stenographers literally ignore, or if they do mention Yemen, its always distorted as a proxy war, and the Houthis are always designated ‘Iranian backed’.
All the many billions upon billions Saudi Arabia has spent on…. Defence. And it can’t even defend itself against drones. Chances of the medieval House Of Saud collapsing? Replaced by?
And yes, the United States, but especially the Neocons have never learned from history. Their entire behaviour is that of addicts. They are blinded by their delusions, and their worship of mammon, and lust of power.
The strikes have taken out approximately $400m in daily dollar cash income for the Saudi government. That income equals dollar liquidity the Saudis suddenly no longer have access to. Their dollar spending commitments, however, go unchanged. If commitments to pay salaries and suppliers can’t be met by (what were until now fairly predictable) cash injections from oil sales, the only other option for the Saudis is to start liquefying their dollar asset reserves and that, very likely, is something to be conducted through the repo markets directly.
In which case repo markets may be moving in anticipation of Saudi liquidity operations — in the context of a market that’s already being over supplied in terms of safe government bond assets relative to available bank reserve liquidity — or as a result of them already taking place.
First I want to thank Mr. Ghassan Kadi for this thorough and well-readable article.
I want to add a few things.
Think about the high costs of an outright genocidal Yemen war (did Ivanka already cry about the babies there?) – do we really think Saudis are fighting there, leaving their airconditioned barracks? They have mercenaries to do that. Pakistani forces, and rumours are that the British are involved in the bombings. They have to be paid.
Think about the costs to keep a population at work, creating all kinds of useless papershoving jobs. I grant you that within a year such a papershover will demand an assistant, because than he is ‘managing’ something. ‘Status’ is more important there than efficiency.
Think about the costs of expats. When the millions of expats would stop working, the society would collapse in a day. Do we think that the wages of them are comparable to their original societies, when you have to live in a wahhabi nation? A colleague of mine went there as expat, but more important his wife earns many millions there because she is a medical specialist, and under Wahhabi rule women may not be touched by male doctors. That costs a lot, such principles.
Another colleague has worked there as expat on a refinerie. They had an overhaul under severe time pressure (a stopped refinerie costs many millions per day in lost revenue). The highest boss is always a prince, and the highest boss must say the final word there. Unfortunately they had to wait a day for his approval to start up, because he had ‘a rough night’. Status, you know.
Which brings me to the ugly costs; what do we think are the maintenance costs of being ruled by a royal family?
Estimations based on official numbers, 5000 direct members of the House of Saud and their monthly wages, come to 5-10% of the SA GDP. However, there are over 100000 more indirect princelings there, and lots of tribal heads who must be bought off. Add to that all costs of staff, security personnel and so on. When we do an estimation based on governmental projects here in Europe, you come close to the real costs by multiplying the official numbers with a factor pi. That means that maintaining the royal family costs between 20 and 30% of SA GDP.
Expensive hobby for people that walk around dressed up like a bed.
(Just for comparison of a republic: maintenance costs of the Obama family costed way more than those for the complete UK royal family: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2210323/Obama-family-costs-taxpayers-1-4BILLION-year.html )
Such a society is not sustainable on the long term. They tried to expand their waning oil reserves by starting a fight with Qatar – they failed. Then they eyed the untapped oil reserves of Yemen – failed again.
There is only one solution –for as long as it takes- for SA, USA, UAE to go at the table with the Yemenites, and negotiate a way out of this quagmire. Pretending ‘success’ and blaming Iran for the too obvious failures is not going to work anymore. Any other option will set the ME ablaze, effectively ending the petrodollar, thereby leading to the collapse of the USA (and maybe more western oriented nations).
Hawks that may think that they can ‘nuke their way out of it’ should be locked up in a straight jacket. I really hope that more professional oriented military men in the Pentagon will simply refuse to go for such an option.
Cheers, Rob
Hi Rob, I lived in this hellhole (S.A) for six months, 35 or so years ago when the cause to Bahrain was started. I was often told by the Saudis that they were hardy people and could live on bread and dates. The Cadillacs parked on the road weren’t necessary as they had camels.
A man sold trinkets on the sidewalk outside our office building, he had a hand missing.
Friday afternoon prayers were popular, more so because of the public punishments administered.
I did make some good friends there but none of them were Saudis.
BEST ACCESSMENT I HAVE READ SO FAR !!! BUT What will this mean for Europe, for NATO and for Denmark ?
It’s important for our new government, it’s ability to successfully make it’s plans a reality for an even better Denmark, with lots of jobs, more social security and it’s goals for reducing CO2 and reducing the use of pesticides and dangerous chemicals in our industries incl. agriculture – in short making Denmark greener… also reference Dansk Industri DI’s 20/30-Plan ” SAMMEN SKABER VI GRØN VÆKST”…
(translated to Together We Create Green Growth)…
Bente, perhaps it means your country will quit the NATZO gang and do some penance for its sins in Syria? Perhaps also stop trying to please Anglo Zio Capitalists by spitefully delaying Russia’s North Stream at its last stage?
JP Farrell has some good speculations →
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_V7SSpfeVc
Its really simple! Its a ONE TRICK pony dance… yes its the same dance the zillion times (no brain cells required all brain functioning strongly prohibited here)
My unfounded imagination →
Which cabal has 1) the motif + 2) the technology + 3) military intelligence + 4) the very very very convenient access + 5) The benefit (money and ‘private’ message)
ALL 5?!!! Its like BING BING BING GO! There is only one : USSA
5 fingerprints and they are not caught and HAND-cuff?
Wait is that an alien with the sixth finger? Woo woo… Like the impossible UFO on 812?
Who’s doing the pompom dance for the bonbon parting party… or for bb?!
One trick pony and its dumb boys ‘money’ game… the zillion times (no brain cells required all brain functioning strongly prohibited here)
Let’s switch the channels… Let’s check out the old-new show coming to you → ‘The evidence’!
Zarif slams US-proposed ‘Coalition for Peaceful Resolution’ targeting Iran – Sep 20, 2019
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/09/20/606651/Zarif-questions-USproposed-peace-coalition
Persian Gulf states should follow Iran’s advice: Analyst
Published on Sep 19, 2019
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/09/19/606618/Persian-Gulf-Iran-us
…………………………………………………
Saudi Arabia pressuring wealthy families to fund Aramco IPO after Yemeni strike – Sep 20, 2019
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/09/20/606662/Saudi-Arabia-pressuring-wealthy-families-to-fund-Aramco
France working to ‘reduce escalation’ after Aramco attacks: Hariri – Sep 20, 2019
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/09/20/606663/france-macron-deescalate-tension-region-aramco-hariri-yemen
For every barrel of salt water injected into the shia eastern provinces giant Ghawar and Khurais oilfield there is a 60% crude oil return. The 14mbpd salt water extraction plant (from the PG at Qurayyah) and its power plant may be destroyed in minutes via long range artillery in Qatar or a 500 salvo Iranian missile attack. With 8.4mbpd of wahhabi oil production gone so will extremism throughout the world and Yemen war will also cease as a bonus. BTW-Qatars 14 gas trains export 90m tons of LNG which keeps Western Europe and Japan alive in winter, these will also end up being destroyed in any conflict.
“GAME-OVER”.
I agree, and quote:
“But here’s the other thing, had it been truly Iran that was responsible for the attack as the Trump administration alleges and wants us to believe, America would then be admitting that Iranian missiles flew from mainland Iran, across the Gulf, managed to dodge American defences and state-of-the-art detection hardware and software, and effectively reached their target on Saudi soil. If this is the scenario Trump wants us to believe, what does this say about the capability of America to engage militarily with Iran? This is a much bigger farce than that of Russia-gate; a claim that Russia can indeed affect the outcome of the presidential elections of the allegedly “greatest and strongest nation on earth”. Do such claims mean that America’s adversaries are extremely organised, smart and strong or that America is in disarray, stupid and weak; or both? Either way, when such claims are perpetrated by none but America itself, they certainly do not put America in a good light.”
That´s all, folks..!
Many thanks for this superb analysis.
Regards.
A simple question: if the USA isn’t willing to commit ground troops to the region then what, exactly, is going to stop the Iranian army from simply marching through Kuwait and seizing all of Saudi Arabia?
Sure, fire missiles at Saudi’s weak points. The more the better. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch of despots.
But follow up those barrages by marching in and winkling those despots out of their palaces at bayonet-point.
After all, what is there in-theatre to stop them?
Mao tells us that when faced with defeat, avoid it by running away.
In this example, however, his advice does not work – the targets are fixed.
It is very important to avoid defeat, especially for Empires.
Persia learned this lesson on this day, 20 September, 480 BCE at Salamis. Xerxes broke off his campaign and retreated.
The Celestial Trump and his circle may not have even heard of the battle…can he be expected to understand?
Is the Empire able or free to disengage? (Persia was)
I propose that Empire must, due to internal and external geopolitical and geoeconomic circumstances, unable to disengage.
Defeat is therefore, one expects, nearly certain.
Ghassan,
You wrote:
“I have recently watched the series ‘The Vietnam War’ on Netflix, and I remembered how back then when the truth about that war was exposed, I believed that American hawks would never get away with lying to their people and the rest of the world again, or ever invade another country in the way that they did with Vietnam. In less than two decades however, they moved full throttle into Iraq, and the masses believed their story.
That quote rang true with me. In the run up to the Iraq war I thought, “What on earth is wrong with my fellow Americans, don’t they remember Vietnam?”
Of course, I am older and I remembered Vietnam fully. But it made me wonder what was being taught in American schools about the history of the Vietnam war. I actually went and retrieved a current high school history book to see what students were being taught about Vietnam. It turned out that they were being taught nothing which would enable them to accurately evaluate the purported justifications for war with Iraq.
That leads to a rather sad conclusion. Since you simply cannot have a functioning democracy without well educated citizens and a responsible media, America is a democracy in name only. Hopefully, sites like this one will help to restore the institution of democracy.
Starts in the schools Mike, or at home. My kid came home one day telling me how we ‘went to war to save the Jews.’ A Nov 11th aniversery and that’s what was being taught in Canadian schools. Bad programing, repeats the mistake. So he got the ‘here’s what gramps said, he was there.’
As a kid I had the pleasure of going to the Legion on Saturdays with my Granda. Mom and Dad were working, guess that made him my babysitter, so to speak. Got hang with WW1/2 vets. Taught me how to play snooker, billards and handicap horses. Even had the odd drink. Great experience, every kid should be exposed to, hanging out with real vets, hear the truth, from them. Maybe not the drinking part, that was back then, otoh……….na, bad idea.
Cheers, M
Your child probably meant, ‘We went to war to hide the fact that MOSSAD did 9/11, and thereby saved the Jews from a savage reaction’. Must have a 9/11 truth-teller as a teacher.
We are about 10,000 strong mike, like a complete unknown, like a rolling stone. Restoration is prolly not even possible, and behind the scenes democracy has been dysfunctional for decades, education sucks, the media is compromised practically to the top, and the citizens have a memory span of a gnat. There is less than no chance of progress on any scale, from any entity, until they can at least begin to finance their endevours. Leading me to conclued that there are no progressive god(s), only destructive ones.
Alabama,
More and more, I am coming to the same conclusion. The rot is so deep, the thing may not be fixable.
In Arkady Shevchenko’s book on defecting from the Soviet Union, he noted that real reformers in the Soviet Union tried and tried and tried to fix the system but eventually just gave up. They came to the conclusion that the system was simply unfixable. In the end they just waited to become eligible for their pensions and got out. I see more and more people in the United States adopting the same attitude. I, myself, retired about a year and a half ago. One day, I just got fed up and quit. Twice in that time I have been offered lucrative positions to return but I refused. I got to the point where I thought that the whole system had simply gone crazy and I just could not stand it anymore. I hear other people saying the same thing.
For Iran to invite war with a nuclear armed state (two if Israel is included) is complete madness. I’m somewhat stunned that some commenters seem to believe that this is a rational course of action. One would hope that the Iranian leadership is not considering such a step. Any war between the US and Iran would not be a repeat of the Iraq wars or other wars fought since WWII. These conflicts would better be described as police actions not wars. The war the US military has been developed to fight is global thermonuclear war with the Soviet Union. This is what Iran would be facing. In a recent study Dallas, et.al. (2013) the results of a modeled nuclear war between Iran and Israel were presented.
https://athenaeum.libs.uga.edu/bitstream/handle/10724/19502/1752-1505-7-10.pdf?sequence=2
The topography and population density of Iranian cities such as Tehran make them particularly vulnerable to nuclear attack. Impacts of five 500 kiloton warheads was projected to yield up to 86% fatalities. Casualty estimates for seven other cities modeled were similar. The total attack assumed only 22 warheads delivered.
There is really no alternative to peaceful coexistence. Otherwise it really would be game over.
Russia and China would never allow it.
In case of nuclear attack on Iran, these two Asian superpowers would respond by nuclear attack on US, Israel and others (Europe, if it joins the A-Z coalition).
Some cold water for the hot-heads:
“China’s Giant $400 Billion Iran Investment Complicates U.S. Options”, by Ariel Cohen
@https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/09/19/chinas-giant-400-billion-iran-investment-snubs-trump/#70d600d84d1e:
“Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called violent attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure in Abqaiq and Khurais “an act of war,” as evidence suggests that Iran is the culprit. This marks the most dangerous escalation between the U.S. and Iran since the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran. However, this confrontation has major implications for the growing U.S. – China strategic rivalry.
Amidst historic U.S. – Iran tensions, Beijing is doubling-down on its strategic partnership with Tehran, ignoring U.S. efforts to isolate the Islamic Republic from global markets. Following an August visit by Iran Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to Beijing, the two countries agreed to update a 25-year program signed in 2016, to include an unprecedented $400 billion of investment in the Iranian economy – sanctions be damned…
At a time when many nations are becoming more wary of Chinese investment – including companies across Europe, Greenland, and the Central Asian Republics – Iran is further embracing China and less savory actors like Russia, and Turkey.
Overall, this may not prove a financially sound endeavor by Beijing, as Chinese companies will come under U.S. sanctions – but it may end up as a shrewd geostrategic play by both parties. Profitability certainly hasn’t been China’s main motivation in many previous investment schemes, nor is it Iran’s. This case is no different. It is a geopolitical anti-American axis. China’s game here is clear: first, increase tensions between the U.S. and Iran by weakening the impact of American sanctions and increase their soft power leverage in the energy-dense Middle East. Then integrate Iran into the Belt-and-Road initiative and into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which Tehran is an observer member….”
Just to be clear, I don’t believe that the US would launch a sudden nuclear attack on Iran. This was what was called the “bolt from the Blue” scenario in the Cold War. However, were the US to suffer a serious military defeat in the Gulf the scenario becomes likely. Iran seems to be saying that they would stage a massive response early in any conflict. This is a very dangerous scenario for possible escalation. During the Cold War NATO always conceded conventional superiority to the Warsaw Pact forces. They knew they would “lose” in the initial, conventional, stage of the conflict. To counter this, the US always maintained a doctrine of first use of nuclear weapons. Eventually such a war was always expected to escalate to their use. China and/or Russia would not be able to stop a nuclear attack on Iran. They could retaliate on Iran’s behalf but would then become targets themselves (four countries destroyed instead of one) If they mean to intervene that would not be the stage at which to do it.
But the real point, and sticking point, in all of these scenarios of “attacks” is:
Who started it???
The West started it. Thus, warnings should be directed to the West to back off.
Not to Iran not to “dare” to defend itself against naked aggresssion.
Katherine
“For Iran to invite war with a nuclear armed state (two if Israel is included) is complete madness. ”
It is the other way around. The US is saying- “I am a nuclear power with a large conventional force too. Let me win over you in a conventional war or I will use nukes to win.”
Steady on David-you’ll have Bibi all over-excited and prone to accidental…ahem…discharges. He’s just slobbering for a ‘New Purim’ the sweet boy.
Mulga, my concern is that the Iranians may be losing patience with the continual stream of threats, provocations and military posturing by the Trump administration. After all, threatening to “obliterate” someone is a bit much. My fear is that they may come to the conclusion that war with the US is inevitable and decide to take matters into their own hands and under their own schedule. Until now, my hope was that saner heads than Trump within the US government and private sector would be able to block him from doing too much damage. If Iran decides to take the initiative the situation could easily spiral out of control.
David, under International Law, I am assured, the threat of aggression is a crime, just like aggression itself, the ‘Supreme Crime’ for which the Nazis at Nuremberg had their cervical vertebrae dislocated.
David, did the Dallas computer warriors also compute what would be the %kill of three 500 killoton warheads on Israel? One missile for Tel Aviv, one for Jerusalem, one for Haifa and radiation for everyone else.
As you say, peaceful coexistence seems a better option.
The scenario was based on the assumption that Israel’s nuclear weapons program was more mature with higher yield warheads than that of Iran. As such, the model assumed only 15 kiloton warheads used by Iran. These are of similar yield to the Hiroshima bomb. They also presumed better delivery capability and missile defense for Israel than for Iran. Attacks on Beer Sheva, Tel Aviv and Haifa were included in the model. They also assumed only four impacts on the Israeli cities. Nevertheless, total model fatalities were 50%, 21% and 17% respectively for the three cities. In all 404,000 fatalities with an additional 200,000 injuries. Still an obscene number of fatalities. Insane to think these levels of loss would be somehow “worth it” regardless of the fate of Iran.
Thanks very much for more information on the Dallas war game results. As you say, the Dallas computer simulation predicts “an obscene number of fatalities” for Israel — even though they allow Israel an 80-fold advantage in killotons delivered (Israel explodes 2,500 killotons on Iran, but Iran explodes only 60 killotons on Israel).
That was in 2013. Iran is now a lot stronger — especially in missile technology and air defence. Israel is now relatively weaker in air defence — they have old U$ system while Iran has ,Russian.
I guess those Dallas whizkids might be about to remodel their computer models after what Yemeni missiles did in U$-protected Saudi Arabia.
One point to make though, this was not a war gaming scenario to determine who would “win”, the authors are not the people that fight or plan the wars. They are in the field of public health and are the people that deal with the consequences of wars and other disasters. They are the good guys. The goal was to determine the health effects of the attacks on the respective populations including type and level of injuries and the capability of the health care systems of the two countries to deal with them.
David, though not a “war gaming scenario” this is very much a Western war game mentality: firstly, those programmers assumed that Iran had at least 4 Hiroshima size bombs — a completely unwarranted assumption in my view (U$ atomic energy authorities have denied that Iran has nuclear weapons program). Those Western care-giving technicians also carry the usual White Man’s Burden superiority complex about Israel’s U$ technology: they gave Israel a 40-fold superiority in killotons (correction from my previous 80).
Things have changed drastically from 2013; the White Man’s Western Superiority is being challenged. Iranian missiles plus Russian AA defense have upset the military apple cart: in this respect Israel is now the weaker party. Humanitarian computer modellers will have to take this into account by a large increase in the “obscenely large number of fatalities” which they estimated for Israel if a hypothetical war with Iran had taken place in 2013. And docius in fundem (Last but not Least) if the West continues to tear up its nuclear non-proliferation agreement with Iran we can no longer be certain that Iran will not obtain killotons to match Israel’s. Iran does not even need to manufacture its own nuclear killotons — there are enough nuclear-ready countries from whom Iran can beg, borrow or buy nuclear warheads.
Bottom Line (does not need a computer): Peaceful coexistence, as you say, is the optimum mathematical model.
However, Iran has no nuclear weapons program, US NIEs around the time of JCPOA said that they had had none for several years, the Iranian Supreme Leader has issued a fatwa against them as ‘unislamic’, Iran is a signatory to the NPT, the IAEA has NEVER reported any shennanigans by the Iranians even under a special inspections regime, and Iran has requested an International Treaty to declare the region nuclear-free.
True, Mulga, but that was before we began tearing up the treaty, and driving Iran into a corner. Now she has d.veloped superior missiles and obtained a superior AA system to Israel’s rickety Patriot / Iron-Domes, one needs to program that into Western White Man Techno-Superiority Complex computer games.
Do not drive Iran into “an existential threat” situation where she has to match Israel killoton for killoton. Because she will do it. If the West want to play computer games there are enough nuclear warheads floating around the world for Iran to upset our calculations — beg, buy, borrow or DIY — as the Houti have just done with conventional warheads.
Is the purpose of all these lost wars to defeat anybody a all? Isn’t the purpose to sell weaponry, rebuilding contracts, Coca Cola, cotton for uniforms…?
There’s a rumor that somebody put a trigger under Las Palmas in the Canary Islands in case idiots in the War Room with Dr. Strangelove imagine they can actually win with nukes. There may be other things like that…who knows? Ever hear of them?
Guys, it’s admittedly a ridiculous and dangerous situation….but every single person commenting here that presents the American people as 100% flat out brainwashed idiots, itching to nuke Iran or even start a conventional attack on Iran …or just being entirely “out of it” obsessed with fantasies like professional sports….or celebrities gossip…………..is way, way off-base.
In any physical situation (including climate, constantly) or psychological situation….or political situation what you gotta pay attention to is ….”The Delta”…..the elements of CHANGE from the 60s-70s Viet Nam war build up and Red Hysteria….to today.
Because there IS a HUGE shift from “Desert Storm” stupidity (and getting “back on top” …after the “Home Team” took a beating in Vietnam…..(Hey, ya gotta “be true to your school”, right??) So “high school”…..LOL …..to September 2019 compared to September 2001-2016
AND the delta between Clintons, Bushes and Obamas…..and Trump….reflected in Trump presenting Kim with a Collector’s Edition CD of Elton John’s “Rocket Man” hit song, as a personal gift from POTUS……and his recent firing of Bolton…observing that, “If John had his way, we’d be involved in 4 wars at the same time, right now.” is so obvious that more ought to question…at least briefly …some of the kabuki bluffing and posturing going on with Orange Man….
This does not mean that a mistake might not happen, that bad intelligence is not fed daily into the White House by neocons and 5 Eyes “allies”…especially the Brits who have publicly proclaimed the existential need to limit DJT to “one term of office only”.
But it does mean that cautious optimism regarding saner heads prevailing is not pure idiocy….or “weakness”.
And it most definitely means that the public awakening reflected into the popularity of the following skit….and the increasing awareness of a significant number of Americans that Mike Pompeo is an F-ing Clown….quite possibly soon to go the way of John Bolton…………should not be ignored:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=urky86Oyh9Q
Pompeo Admits “No Evidence” Iran Attacked Saudi Arabia (but …..C’mon, Jimmy….we know it was Iran!”)
And not only should ths significant “delta” of consciousness not be ignored, it should be assisted………by perhaps “lightening up” just a tad…….and ALSO wielding humor, satire and ridicule as weapons in this global war for the Sanity of Human Minds….everywhere.
Enjoy!
Whoever plays Pompeo does a remarkably effective job, IMHO. Sounds just like him!
A very thoughtful piece, and pretty accurate I think.
Before she went completely insane, apparently from greed and the desire for fame, Rachel Maddow wrote a pretty decent book titled Drift: the Unmooring of American Military Power. One of the chapters is an account of the USA invasion of Grenada, which she analyzes as Regan’s effort to kick the “Vietnam Syndrome” out of the American consciousness and make America great again, or at least confident to resume foreign military adventures.
That was 8 short years after the fall of Saigon. Grenada was a practice run for the Gulf War, which took place in 1991. As you point out, well less than 20 years after Vietnam. It had looked for a while like the USA might move away from perpetual war. After we “won” the Cold War, there was talk of a “peace dividend.” Most people have now forgotten that was even a thing. I think that 1990 was a real turning point in history. The USA had a chance, a real chance, to help create a different kind of world. I was still relatively young and apparently very naive to think it might happen. I think it was the last chance we will have.
Bankruptcy mentality or there is no honor among thieves : Rather than allow the Israeli Arab community to be the swing factor in the formation of a viable coalition government in Israel the Ziocon neocons will be tempted to sacrifice Saudis in a diversionary war with Iran.
The idea of a serial business failure is that somone else takes the hit, picks up the tab or pays the price. Trump has always failed but never has faced its sting so thus he feels he has never failed. And he leads a country of upper middle class and ruling class elites who never accept failure because they have not been held to the same standards as anyone else re H Clinton.
Looks like MBS may be hung up by the USA and then thrown under the bus by Israel. Nastiness is afoot.
We are in very perilous times,
4 years ago I had the distinct pleasure of speaking with one of our companies directors {I work in the oil and gas sector} who went to Dubai on a sales call at some international symposium there. I asked him about that place and his impressions of what he thought of the Burj etc etc? David just shook his head and said and I quote:
“that place wouldn’t exist if it wasn’t for air conditioning. It just wouldn’t. Everywhere you go there is air conditioning, everywhere. You walk out into the outside world and it really hits you how hot that place is.”
Great article Kadi and so right on. What a horror they have created in that place and all because of the one substance oil or as the Venezuelans like to call it the ‘Devil’s Excrement.’
What does one expect anyway with such fabulous wealth. the Arabs have looked at the west and been full of envy at the wonders of the west and wanted it for themselves. Good for them I say however, such will not last and the horror as you point out will be terrifying when it all falls apart. Truly horrifying.
In one of John Perkin’s books, he states that the purpose of the construction in Dubai and many other elaborate construction projects in the middle east is simply to recover back petro dollars. Western contractors come to these countries and sell them these grandiose projects at exorbitant prices. There is a standard “sales pitch” that they give to the locals. These contractors tell the locals that these projects will provide them with continuing revenue when their oil runs out. But it is all a lie. The contractors know that these projects are complete boondoggles but don’t care since they can make a good profit. The whole thing is simply a way of recovering back money paid to these countries for their natural resources.
@ Jersey Mike
truth is always hard to disseminate but if you were a poor Arab sitting on a wealth to grandiose to fathom and then winning the ultimate lottery wouldn’t you want a wave pool and snow for skiing in the desert? As a poor Arab learning about the great pleasures of the west and the magnificent building projects well greed and envy always wins out over common sense.
The sin nature if not dealt with at the cross of Christ there is simply no hope for the survival of the species.
There is the cosmic reality enema, the human being has reached critical mass insanity. When an organism rots to the point of decay, that cannot be saved from totally disintegrating, the inevitable is what it is. USA and its “allies” (e.g., European Union, Et Al) are all rotting. The cores are not salvageable. Core values that are in a state of total confusion, are not healthy and therefore, in reality, an imbalance. The experimentation wrought on humans has created a mutant species. The so called “western society” is a failure. Hollywood and the information system >has been and is> intentional cognitive dissonance, causing a mass insanity after a fashion. Just a matter of time, the saturation point has already been surpassed. Donald Trump is a looking glass of what it is. Be awake and prepared.
https://m.journal-neo.org/2019/09/20/houthi-attack-on-saudi-oil-fields-a-false-flag/
Maybe…maybe….we are all being conned.
Maybe the Yemenites jumped in with their claims of responsibility to force the US blow to Iran to glance it rather than ziran take a direct hit.?
Maybe it was a UK or French or US or the entity’s false flag.
Ghassan, I would like to add that I knew a guy who worked at Aramco, which as the name suggests is Arab-American Corporation. As far as I know, all the non-Asians lived in a protected compound. You can get the jest.
Anyway, this is why Trump is waving his finger at Iran, because first of all Iran has been his target ever since he got elected. Second of all and this is not officially said: “you can’t destroy “American” property”.
The Iranians seem to play 4-D chess as the US barely can play anything. Accusing Iran of Aramco attack clearly shows someone in the state department is not thinking.