Paul Schmutz Schaller for The Saker Blog
During the last days, we saw dramatic changes in the Syrian situation. For the fourth time in the last years, Turkey invaded Syria. But the actual invasion is quite different since it is directly targeted against the Syrian army. This was confirmed, on March 1, by the Turkish defense minister and, on March 2, by Erdogan.
The Turkish aggression is carried out by thousands of troops, by thousands of military vehicles, and by air forces, including a significant number of armed drones. Concerning the concrete situation on the ground, there are different narratives. Apparently, on February 27, over thirty of invading Turkish military personnel were killed by a strike coming from Syria, Russia, or both; these Turkish military personnel were mixed with terrorist forces and therefore difficult to discern. Subsequently, there was obviously some confusion among the Syrian side and its allies, which allowed the Turkish army to make some important casualties.
In the last weeks, the Syrian Army had made big progresses against he terrorists around Idleb. The latter were on the brink of complete collapse. Turkey did not want to accept their defeat and this was the reason for the Turkish aggression. It is certainly true that Turkey was an ally of the terrorist forces in Syria during the whole war. But this time, the Turkish army fights directly together with the terrorists against the Syrian army. This has created a new situation, even if it is not yet a full-scale war; for example, some of the so-called Turkish „observation posts“ are surrounded by the Syrian army, but were not attacked.
The Syrian army is quickly adapting to the new situation. In particular, on March 2, the crucial city Saraqeb (on the junction of the two highways M4 and M5) could be recaptured from the Turkish and terrorist forces. The Syrians have declared a no-fly-zone over the region (Russian planes being the unique exception) and they are bringing more air defense systems to the front, in order to confront the Turkish air attacks. It also seems that the Syrian army has decided to postpone the liberation of the M4 between Saraqeb and Lattakia in order to concentrate on the more essential M5 between Damascus and Aleppo.
Hezbollah has lost some fighters by the Turkish aggression. On March 1, a massive funeral with thousands of people was hold in Beirut. On February 29, for the first time, the Iranian Advisory Center in Syria published a statement, warning the Turkish side of „the great risks of continuing the aggression against Syria“. We can conclude that these close allies of the Syrian army also adjust their position, closely monitoring the new developments.
Since Russia decided in 2015, on the request of the Syrian government, to actively support the Syrian army, it was always clear that the aim was the fight against terrorism. There is no doubt that Russia will continue with these politics. On the other hand, with respect to the Turkish invasion, it is not to expect that Russia will militarily intervene directly. Of course, Russia will defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, but merely on the political and diplomatic level. However, there will be some major grey zone since the fight against terrorism cannot simply be distinguished from the fight against the Turkish invaders.
Very probably, the planned meeting (March 5) between Putin and Erdogan in Moscow will not resolve the problem of the Turkish invasion. One may expect that Putin will put some red lines in order to avoid a full-scale war between Syria and Turkey. Moreover, he will insist that the Syrian side is the just side. But Russia cannot handle the Turkish aggression. This is a problem between Turkey on the one hand and Syria, together with her regional allies, on the other hand. China will have a similar position. There will be diplomatic, economical, and some political support for Syria from China, but not much more, at least not openly.
I think that it is completely wrong to criticize Russia or China for these positions. They are not the masters of an alternative world. They cannot dictate a political agenda. They have neither the strength nor the intention of doing so. No country should expect that its problems will be solved by China and/or Russia. It is also wrong to see Putin as the one big infallible chess player who holds the reins. As leader of his country he has his point of view just as the leaders of the other players have their point of view. Nobody is in the possession of the absolute truth. However, the history of Russia and China shows that these countries are loyal to her allies and do not exchange them like clothes. As permanent members of the Security Council they will defend the interests of Syria. But they will continue to have as good as possible relations with USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
China and Russia are strong and influential countries, but the creation of a post-Western world needs quite a few other countries. Militarily speaking, the current front line between the Western empires and the new world is in the Middle East (West Asia). On the one hand, we have the aggressive countries USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey. The other side is represented by Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Ansarullah (Yemen). One may add some forces in Iraq. At present, these are the regions were the sharpest fights took place. The impulses and the directives for these forces do not come from Russia nor from China. They come from the Middle East herself.
Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Ansarullah all have their proper strength, experience, autonomy, and leadership. Each one has achieved great successes against mighty enemies. Of course, they collaborate and there is much mutual support. The victories of each are also the victories of all. With the Turkish invasion in Syria, they are confronted with a new task. But Turkey is not as strong as it seems. Politically, the country is divided and Erdogan has not at all the support of the whole people for his invasion. His supporters are merely ultra-nationalists and fascists. Moreover, his aggressive politics in the region (Syria, Iraq, Libya, Cyprus, Greece) has not produced many friends. His politics seem to be utterly adventurous. And militarily speaking, Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran are experimented opponents. I am very confident that Erdogan will suffer a shameful defeat. The Syrian nation and people have already showed that they are able of immense sacrifices, that they are heroic fighters and great patriots.
The reactions on Soleimani’s assassination have changed the Middle East. Erdogan will not be able to stop this movement. His government has chosen the wrong side. The „new“ Middle East is modifying the relations with all other countries. The world should get used to a new Middle East: more autonomous, more self-confident, stronger. Which is very valuable for the whole planet.
Totally Hyperbolic statement:
“The Turkish aggression is carried out by thousands of troops, by thousands of military vehicles, and by air forces, including a significant number of armed drones.”
You should be able to name the Turkish military units if such an ‘invasion’ occurred.
So I’d like to see the documentation.
I would suggest “incursion” as the correct word.
The word ‘invasion’ has been misused in the last four decades for very geopolitical reasons.
The USSR did not invade Afghanistan. It was by invitation that the USSR responded to save the government from overthrow by radical insurgents/terrorists. Russia has not invaded Crimea or Donbass, though the Russophobes insist on that terminology to make a case for “aggression” against the RF.
What Turkey has been doing is launching incursions to fight and control Kurds, to set stakes in turf it wants to control, and to protect its big investment in the last large proxy army, al Nusra.
And yes, the Syrians have control of Sarakibe today.
I posted the news on another article’s thread:
/idlib-deadly-turkish-strikes-against-the-syrian-army-and-hezbollah/#comment-768223
I think on March 5 Erdogan will hear directly from Putin that Turkey has lost its gambit. Russia will continue to fly in support of Syrian Army advances to cleanse Idlib of terrorists. This means that the Turks can stake their claim and stand alone and fight to hold it against Assad’s military, or it can continue to mingle in support of al Nusra and get its troops killed by Syrian, Hezbollah and Russian munitions. It doesn’t matter that they wear Turk uniforms. If they are with the terrorists, they will die, too.
And if the Turks pick a spot to hold and fight on their own, Syria will still defeat them because all of Syrians want all of Syria returned and they are more than willing to die for their native land. Also, if Turkey stakes a claim and fights to hold it, it is formally an “aggressor” and the full power of the members of the UNSC will be waged against Turkey. Sanctions first, then military response.
This is why Turkey has no intention of fighting or invading Syria. That would be pure aggression. Russia and China will defend Syria, and Turkey will not just suffer a military bruising and intense economic dislocation, the internal power may shift and rid the nation of Erdogan.
Putin will once again clarify a bountiful Eurasian future for Turkey. This is the option Erdogan seems to forget when his Muslim Brotherhood impulses overwhelm him. Turkey has everything to gain economically if it obeys the Russian instructions. The March 5th meeting is remedial lessons for the Emperor. He’s a slow learner.
Larchmonter445, thank you for your response. Not only do I highly value your posts, but I look for them ALL the time. Thank you.
Lartchmonter445
Excellent comment. As for the article, it’s slightly contradictory. The author stated that Russia will back Syrian soveregnity, but that it won’t fight Turkey in Syria. Not easy to accept. If, theoretically, Erdogan decided to launch a full scale invasion of the country, backed by every mercenary he could drag into Syria from the Middle East, it would give Turkey a numerical advantage. I just don’t see Russia standing aside and letting this happen, so that a Muslim caliphate could be created and subsequently used against Russia, which was one of the reasons why Russia intervened in Syria in the first place.
The point is that Erdogan overplayed his hand. After the latest developments, I doubt very much if he has a clear picture in his head what he has done so far nor what he should do in the future. Once this fact is understood in Turkey, then I think that his political days will be numbered.
BF, I’d like to add a comment from high ranking Greek general Frankos Frankoulis (a Makedonas, BTW), who at some point was a big cheese of Greek Armed Forces, who is fluent in Turkish and at some point was a military attache stationed in Turkey (Smirni).
Not to long long ago he said: They (Turks) do not know the word “Please”, all they know and say is “I demand” .
The difference of all parties is what their absilute needs are as opposed to what they say their red lines are.
Russia needs transit through Bosporus strate and a means to transit their gas to Europe. Do they need ports in Syria? It is a redline but do they absolutely need it for their survival as a nation?
Iran needs a market for their oil and gas. Do they need to keep open the supply line to Hezbollah? It is redline for them but do they need it?
Syria needs to be whole enough to fund reconstruction after a long and brutal war. They are in an atrociously bitter fight for survival and, as such, do not have the luxary of drawing red lines for anything that isn’t purely a matter of survival.
Same could be said for Yemen as is said for Syria.
China just needs a market for their goods and they don’t really care where they get the resources to produce them, they just need those resources on the cheap.
Israel is where I have problem trying to identify their needs vs red lines. They don’t need more territory but they want it. They don’t need stolen oil and other resources on the cheap but they want it. They don’t need Hezbollah to cease to exist but the want it. They don’t need to be a power player in regional politics and issues but they want it. In my opinion, their needs are not under threat but their wants are which make their redlines that of a petulant child. So the wants of a petulant child are creating much strife in an an otherwise adult world who are trying to balance wants and needs.
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Good points, L445.
However, as you stated yourself, Erdogan is a slow learner. I still am not so convinced that he will understand the true state of things as will be laid down for him by Putin. He once was described as yelling at Obama with a swaying arm and a pointing finger, maybe not so bright at probably the most vain president of the USA.
I want to thank Paul Schmutz Schaller for this article. We may have different views on some points, but at least you had the courage to write an article in a fuzzy storm of maybe facts and maybe non-facts.
Sometimes I even guess that is is done deliberately, to create room for anyone to save face.
Cheers, Rob
You are a little bit foo late ,Sir. Saraqeb is already under Syrian Army control .
Russia and China not only should assist politically and economically Syria and their allies in west Asia if they want to succeed in the near and far future . Being soft against NATO , Turkey or the USA aggression will not help them .
It is about time to stand against the aggressive western colonizing power of the US and the rest of NATO.
Quite abvious that the USA control the United Nation to serve their and ISRAEL agenda against all others .
Look at the USA forces sitting and occupying the north eastern Syria stealing the oil while Mr Trump publicly saying in the front of the cameras he will take the oil .
Is that enough a reason for China and Russia to stand more strongly against Turkey and other aggressive elements ? Even with military support by all means .
China has been crippled by this bizarre virus epidemic. RT business show boom bust reports that China is losing $200Billion per month during this quarantine. So far the damage to China had approached $600Billion and counting. China was never a contender to match the USA. They were putting in all the pieces into place to become a major global geopolitical player, but they needed at least 10 to 15 more years before they would have been in position to challenge anybody. Unfortunately for the CCP, some within their leadership made the bad call to try to take on the US head-on now and we can all see the result.
Even without this virus, China is so dependent on the export oriented economic model based on the USD, that they would never be able to confront because of their dependency on exporting into the West and even neutral nations using US dollars as the medium of exchange. BRI, which is years away (if it ever happens to the scale required) was supposed to provide China with an economic model independent from the Western export oriented model.
Pure economic power, without effective hard power of massive and threatening global reach, is useless even against a much smaller economy with a more advanced military and technology. China lacks the advanced global reach that both Russia and the United States possess. China, despite being a global power economically, is militarily still just a regional power. This is why Russia, despite having an economy much smaller than the US but a military and intelligence apparatus of deadly global reach, is far more fear inducing in the West. (Hence the visceral and hysterical hatred western bureaucrats and media have against Russia: it’s based on true fear respect and frustration).
Russia isn’t directly dependent on western markets and if pushed into a corner has the means, via their competent experienced and sophisticated intelligence organs, to take out (or expose) key members of the Western deep state, elites etc. China cannot exercise this sub-nuclear-threshold option because they neither have the capacity nor the will to do so because of the market-technology leverage the West has on them.
That’s why it’s Russia that has successfully stopped Western MiC expansion at the dneiper River and rolled back the attempt by the West’s oil-banking cartel to conquer Syria. China, despite dwarfing Russia economically, has achieved nothing of this scale or significance because they’re just not in a position to do so.
Makes sense. Thanks for this.
You’re welcome Bruno. Russia is the only power that is acting strategically and carefully in this affair and not swapping short-term concerns for long-term term losses or even existential threats. China is suffering from the weakness of deluded belief that are entitled to suzerainty over Asia. Leading to aggressive and belligerent behavior that the West has encouraged – leading the chinese leadership to believe that this method works when the real effect was to alienate China from major Asian powers that would have become their natural allies, but now are their enemies.
They have also displayed strategic hubris with the West, believing that they can have their cake and eat it too: ie stay plugged into the dollar system, and use those dollar tokens to bribe US congressmen, senators, oligarchs, multinationals,media, Hollywood, etc. to undermine the US political system and bureaucracy while simultaneously overtly threatening the US’s global domination in reserve currency/finance as well as military decades before they are strong enough take on the US, thus tipping their hand early and walking into the demonization trap.
People criticize Putin and Russia for not being aggressive enough – they are wrong, Russia’s cautious and humble approach is intelligent and wise. It shows that Russia is playing the long game, uncompromising on existential issues (strategic weapons, defense of Syria)but avoiding useless ego based belligerence with the US which is unlike China’s behavior that trades real gain for fake face-saving bromides from Western leaders.
Don’t be fooled people. We saw the same thing in the early 90’s in the AfPak with Pakistan army going deep inside Afghanistan and taking Kabul and what not. Driving everyone out of the game. Talibs were installed in Kabul at US behest using Pakistan as a proxy. All of this ended with the 9-11 attacks, and the rest is history and a major debacle for Sunni Islam. The difference now is that Er-Dog-An fights for a few hundred km2 vs half of Syria which he previously controlled. How the times have changed. This is nothing compared to the AfPak of the early 90’s. Hundreds of thousands were killed leading up to the 9-11 attacks and the post 9-11 saga. This is just posturing by the big boys.
Ahson You have correctly drawn the parallels between Erdogan’s turkey and Pakistan: both are treacherous willing and slaves with pretensions of leading the Muslim world. And now both are the laughing stock of the Muslim world. Recently, the Organization of Islamic States repeatedly humiliated Pakistan by inviting India to be the keynote guest at a time was demanding a boycot of India: India got hosted in an honored position while it was Pakistan that was excluded from the meeting (i get the feeling the OIC did more out of contempt for the Pakistani regime thank any love for India).
Pakistan’s collusion with neocon Reagan regime near destroyed their nation and caused the karmic blowback of Islamist terrorists killing 50,000 Pakistan Army and police. The Erdogan’s regime is going to receive similar rewards with the Islamists they intended for Syria burrowing into Turkey and creating similar blowback.
Mate…..the truth is evident……but be careful what you wish for. Millions of innocent lives are at stake. Pakistan is a failed state….no doubt. Now Turkey is at the precipice, if Russia/ China/ Iran decide to dismantle it. It’s not hard, but we all have to live with the aftermath which is nothing but horror. Lets hope better sense prevails. However I can’t see Erdogan having a future. He’s absolutely stuffed everything up. We in Pakistan figured out the geo-political game far too late to make any difference. We’ve been had, to say the least. I fear Erdogan is up that same slippery slope. He’s about done!
@Ahson
You are a rare person in your country, if only the rest of your countrymen were as rational and objective as you regarding the true state of their country or sold out hypocrites like Erdogan.
When I say Karma, I’m simply stating the facts: Pakistan has encouraged takfiri wahabbist jihadis against Russia, then India then, as a result of spillover, against Iran and even their ally China (Uighur terrorists are being protected trained in Pakistan by Islamist organizations like JeM). Why Karma? Because many people in Pakistan carry hatred against non-sunnis like me and non-muslims in India, Russia, the West etc. So until the hatred inculcated in them by the British and their intelligence agencies via their lackeys in the Pakistani elite, is removed, it’s hard to feel sympathy for members of Pakistan’s society and security apparatus being burned by the very monster they created with glee and zealotry.
I do agree that it is very sad, but you see similar patterns in how the Ukrainians have been brainwashed by past Western Empires and now the modern day intelligence agencies of their inheritors, to hate their own cousins, the Russians. Western Ukrainians even belong to the same religion and sect, yet the hatred in western Ukrainians towards their blood and cultural brothers, the Russians, is just like what you see in Pakistan toward Indians. It is artificial hatred designed to serve the interests of foreign empires and the interests of traitorous criminal mafia they left in charge in these countries.
Look, Pakistan is a banana republic. There is no shame in admitting this. Its a fact! Now, the questions many ask around is why would a country willingly ‘stuff itself up’…….my answer to that is that Pakistan had no choice, right from the get go from its independence back in 1947. Its leaders were chosen by the hastily departing British and the society was geared from the start to have a western orientation, CENTO/ SEATO pacts etc. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto tried to join the socialist camp in the 70’s, but he was taken out by the agency and replaced by that jihadi Zia ul Haq abomination. Then we were told at gun point to join the Afghan jihad against the USSR, under Gen Zia. That war is still ongoing and has done tremendous damage to our society. We are still strung out with over 5 million jihadi Afghan refugees born in the madarsa culture in the refugee camps. Zia was too taken out by the agency for dissent in 1988, for exceeding the mandate in Afghanistan. Regime change overnight and since then one stooge after another until today. 80,000 Pakistani citizens are dead from the AfPak war launched after 9-11, millions more homeless and displaced by the COIN operations in the FATA regions. Busted ass bankrupt economy, we’ve been had buddy……It’s safe to say. Sitting on a failed state today on IMF/ GCC petro dollar life support, rife with corruption, nepotism and cronyism. Only the western/ GCC backed Pak Army is holding the country together (for now), otherwise the country would’ve long disintegrated. And the worse is that there is no future……not that I can see…..People in Pakistan admit that perhaps the need for our services for the empire might be our next lucky break; ie, being asked to part take in another imperial campaign against Afghanistan or Iran. Just don’t make us irrelevant, we are happy to serve the empire in any capacity, a similar predicament to er-dogan’s Turkey today……note, he too got played and now he too gets to keep them 5 million FSA/ Nusra/ Al-Qaeda/ HTS jihadis. He’s another fool, just like Zia was (at gun point). The empire has destabilized many countries in the region. This drama is not over by any means. The war will continue, and the sunni’s will continue to be in the meat grinder as required. No other way to put it.
Biography washing of Russia and China. Where is Huawei dragon? Mind his own business. How can you defend ally with a communist defensive policy in the world of neoliberal capitalism??? The juvenile powers of the multipolar world. How many of them will just post to the blog anything to justify their club they cheer for. Russia has 7,000 nuclear warheads, however not a day goes by that they do not apologize and argue that they will not use these weapons unless attacked by nuclear or strong conventional force? The world does not care for beautiful manners, but rather interests. Americans don’t say anything to anyone, they do what they want. Russia and China want to change the thinking of the whole world that exists from Sargon time? Funny. Let Iran try to invade Qatar where they have a base. Russia and China also remained silent when Western international community seized a territory from the Serbs and silently agreed to it. They call for a frozen conflict as a political solution, promising that the east will win and the west will collapse.Tragicomedy. It is important that business with partners goes forward. They refer to SCUN resolutions that are not respected by the members themselves. Dear Syrians, there are no allies, there are bigger and smaller interests. Ideology and capital do not know the borders. Play wisely, but don’t let yourself be ashamed. Destroyed Syria, which is not free but depends on the will of the great powers, has yet to pass the hell of corruption and betrayal like Serbia is still going through today. Twnty years after war, young people are moving abroad. Don’t allow it to yourself. I wonder if Stalin or Mao or De Gol would play like this with western stuffed mannequins? Unfortunately, today’s puppets in power are only the branches of Family deep state in any of the members of gobal SCUN.
Erdogan needs to be made to understand that only two types of Turks will now be tolerated in Syria – those who are dead and those who soon will be.
This depends one one’s definition of ‘front line.’ If China and Russia were not at the frontlines of the economic war and the arms race, and providing some balance to Western power to prevent further escalation, these Middle Eastern parties would have no chance.
While Russia’s presence on the ground has been limited, it is also important to note the Korean contribution to the Syrian war efforts, which aside from modernising and servicing arms, building and servicing hospitals and sending advisers to the frontline (for Syrian artillery units in Aleppo, for example) has also included the deployment of Korean units to fight against jihadist forces. Koreans have been fighting for Syria since at least 1973, from manning artillery in the Lebanon War to special forces deployments today.
This article is interesting on the Korean contribution to the war effort.
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/north-korean-special-forces-in-syria-a-look-at-pyongyang-s-assistance-to-damascus-counterinsurgency-operations