(Originally written for the Asia Times)
All signs are showing that the otherwise secretive Saudi regime is angry. Very, very angry. Not only did the KSA refuse to take a seat at the UNSC, but now the Saudi spy chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appears to be threatening the USA with a “major shift” in “relations with the United States in protest at its perceived inaction over the Syria war and its overtures to Iran”. The WSJ provides some further details:
In the run-up to the expected U.S. strikes, Saudi leaders asked for detailed U.S. plans for posting Navy ships to guard the Saudi oil center, the Eastern Province, during any strike on Syria, an official familiar with that discussion said. The Saudis were surprised when the Americans told them U.S. ships wouldn’t be able to fully protect the oil region, the official said.
Disappointed, the Saudis told the U.S. that they were open to alternatives to their long-standing defense partnership, emphasizing that they would look for good weapons at good prices, whatever the source, the official said.
In the second episode, one Western diplomat described Saudi Arabia as eager to be a military partner in what was to have been the U.S.-led military strikes on Syria. As part of that, the Saudis asked to be given the list of military targets for the proposed strikes. The Saudis indicated they never got the information, the diplomat said.
Bandar (aka Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud) spent most of his career in Washington DC where he was the Saudi ambassador from 1983 to 2005 where he was considered exceptionally close to the Bush family. Not only that, he could observe, as no one else could, how the US went to war against Iraq not once, but twice, in 1991-1992 and, again, in 2003-2005. So he, of all people, should now that a) the USA does not have the physical capability to “fully protect” the entire oil region of the KSA and b) that the US would only share a critical proposed strike list with close Anglo allies (the UK and, maybe, some other Anglo country). Not even the Israelis or the French would be given that kind of access.
So what in the world is Bandar upset about?!
Sure, there are other good reasons for him to be angry: the entire Saudi strategic plan to defeat the Shia in the Middle-East has fallen apart.
The Saudis wanted to trigger an insurrection in Syria, then execute a “false flag” chemical attack, then have the USA take out the Syrian regime and replace it with a Saudi puppet regime of Wahabi liver-eaters. That would isolate both Hezbollah and Iran. The Saudis would let the Israelis deal with Hezbollah while they would then push the USA into a confrontation with Iran.
As strategic plans go, this was a pretty good one too but it was based on a fundamental misunderstanding the of Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah determination to defeat it. We know that Russia sent a very powerful naval task force to the Syrian coast, we have pretty good information showing that Iran covertly sent both equipment and combatants to Syria and Hezbollah publicly admitted that it sent several thousands of its combatants into Syria. These combatants are really those who turned the tide of the war on the ground (especially around al-Qusayr). What we don’t know (but what must have happened for sure) is what Russia, Iran and Hezbollah told the USA through their back-channel communications. I personally have a very strong feeling that some very serious threats were made by one or several of these parties and that these threats were taken very seriously by the White House. Yes, of course, we then had Kerry’s “rhetorical point” about Syria giving up chemical weapons, but there are plenty of indicators that the US had already decided to “fold” 2-3 days before this actually occurred. Whatever may be the case, it is clear that the US took the only possible sane decision and decided that it did not want to start a major war in the Middle-East.
Did the Saudis really think that the USA would take on Syria, Hezbollah, Iran and Russia on their behalf?
Now let’s look at the Saudi reaction. First, they refused to take their seat at the UNSC. So what?! With the predictable exception of Kuwait and Bahrain, who is going to be heartbroken at not having the Saudis sit at the UNSC?! Kosovo?
And now comes this threat of a “major shift” in the US-Saudi alliance.
What in the world is Bandar talking about again?!
First, does Bandar really believe that the USA vitally needs the KSA? Does he not realize that the USA be self-sufficient in energy pretty soon? Or does he not realize that the days when ARAMCO was the key to the strength of the dollar are long gone and that now the strength of the dollar depends mostly on US military and financial power? And even if the KSA was vital to the strength of the dollar, does Bandar really think that he can threaten US vital strategic interests with impunity?
Second, if Bandar wants to shift away from the alliance with the USA, where does he think he could shift to?! Most definitely not China which has a very serious “Islamic problem” on its hands in its western provinces, not the EU which is faithfully committed to its colonial status in the US Empire, and nobody in Africa – even less so after the recent carnage in Kenya. Nobody in Latin America for sure, if only because of its long history of anti-US struggle and its large Arab population which know what kind of sick ideology Wahabism is. In Asia, maybe the desperate rulers of the DPRK or Burma would want to explore options, but that’s about it. So unless Bandar thinks he can punish the US by shifting its alliance to some “heavyweights” like Kuwait or Bahrain, one can only be left wondering of what Bandar has in mind.
Think about it: first he threatens Putin with terror attacks during the Sochi Olympics and now he threatens the USA with “dumping” it?! This would be comical if the House of Saud was not sitting on a huge amount of money which they have – and will – use to spread terror and Wahabi extremism all over the planet.
Which brings me to my last question: does Bandar really not understand how fragile his regime is?
Does he seriously believe that he can threaten both the US and Russia and get away with it?
Maybe the poor man believes that the Bush clan will do something about it, but if so, then that hope misplaced. Sure, the Bush family and the House of Saud are old accomplices in all sorts of ugly deals, but not only are the Bush people currently not in power, but they will always love their money more than they will love their friends. And the truth is, neither the Bush family nor even the USA need the Saudis all that much.
The reverse, however, is not true. The Wahabi house of Saudi is sitting on top of a treasure trove of Shia oil (the oil rich regions of the KSA are also the ones where a repressed Shia minority lives). Both Bahraini and the Saudi regimes have held on to power only thanks to a ruthless and systematic repression against its population, especially the Shia. For the Wahabis, to stay in power means killing Shia, lots of Shia. And to do that, one needs a “protector” at the UNSC. In the case of the KSA, this protector has always been the USA. But just imagine what could happen if the USA withdrew its protection of the KSA at the UNSC. Imagine what kind of signal that would send to the repressed Shia in these two countries? Without even going into a R2P situation, it is pretty obvious that the Saudi regime only serves “at the pleasure of the US President” and that it could be summarily dismissed.
But Bandar seems to be completely oblivious to that.
My personal feeling is that Bandar must have gone clinically insane. Either that or it is the entire House of Saud has gone mad, maybe as a consequence of its degenerate lifestyle. Who knows?
If Bandar is “retired: – administratively or physically – sooner rather than later, then its option one. If not, then its option two. But either way, the writing is on the wall for the House of Saud.
The Saker
The al Sauds are survivors. They cut a deal with Roosevelt as soon as the Brits were finished by WWII.
China is now the biggest oil importer. They will cut a deal with them.
The loss of US influence in ME is linked to the rise of shale oil. Energy independence is a double edged sword. KSA will serve heir biggest customer. That is China. Neither the al Sauds nor the CCP will let a few Uighurs get in the way of that.
@UrbanGuerilla: China can buy Saudi Oil alright, but what China cannot do is protect the House of Saud the way the US does. Also – do you think that the Saudis will accept payment in Yuans? Because that is what the Chinese want, and the Saudis know that accepting that would be tantamount to invite CENTCOM to overthrow the House of Saud. Also, Russia and China have signed huge energy deals while shale oil puts more oil on the world market – that is not so good for the KSA. Finally, its now a few Uighurs which will get in the way, but the threat Wahabism poses to China and key allies (such as Russia and Kazakhstan). I think that Xi Jinping is a very smart person and that while he will get oil from anybody willing to offer it, he will never ally himself with these Wahabi psychopaths.
Cheers!
The Saker
Sorry, but energy independence in the US is not the same as oil independence. Shale oil well do not have the same production profile as “normal” oil wells.
Equally the reason the Saudis are mad is because their bought politicians didn’t stay bought. They’ve faithfully adhered to the petrodollar formula, but Kerry’s blunder combined with Obama’s fundamental lack of courage is what has led to the present situation.
I am far from convinced that the leadership in the US has somehow turned a new leaf; if so then I’d like to see some actual evidence that the same individuals who enabled Libyan oil to exit the market are suddenly interested in bringing Iranian oil back on.
Equally so that Israel’s interests suddenly lie with US rapprochement with Iran.
In any case, you’ve drawn a line in the sand with Bandar’s near future fate – time will tell how accurate your view and associated prediction is.
@Anonymous1028:In any case, you’ve drawn a line in the sand with Bandar’s near future fate – time will tell how accurate your view and associated prediction is.
Yup. I predict a big ugly fight for power in Saudi Arabia, one which could turn violent because Bandar is really playing with fire now (war in Syria, terror threats to Putin, vague threats to the US).
We shall see.
Many thanks and kind regards,
The Saker
I found only one point in your article I could not agree with. Petrodollar depends on wahabi idiots and their buddies in Qatar and Kuwait. As soon as they stop calculating price of black gold in worthless $US, US empire is done.
Adnan
@Adnan: Petrodollar depends on wahabi idiots and their buddies in Qatar and Kuwait. As soon as they stop calculating price of black gold in worthless $US, US empire is done.
Yes, and this is why the petrodollars REALLY depends not on these guys, but on the US military’s ability to make them, and everybody else, behave. Put it differently: remove the US military and the petrodollar disappears overnight.
Thanks!
The Saker
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-24/guest-post-growing-rift-saudi-arabia-threatens-severely-damage-petrodollar?page=1
interesting read
mindfriedo
Whoa Saker!
I am reading your piece right now at Asia Times
It is so exciting….I’ll be back
another dirty one
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/quantitative-easing-worked-for-the-weimar-republic-for-a-little-while-too
mindfriedo
I heard a mullah say once that it says in the Koran that when one oppressor (zalimun) sides with another and oppresses a people, than God makes it happen that these oppressors fight each other in this world. The example he gave was of Saddam turning on Kuwait, or the Americans fighting Iraq. I tried looking for the ayat but could not find it. All I found was something similar on a Muslim Brotherhood page.
mindfriedo
Well I loved your piece!
I may not agree with every bit of it, but, I love it!
(I don’t think you want everyone to agree with you anyway, that would just be bizarro)
Petrodollar supremacy does rely on US military hegemony
If the military fails, the dollar will fail.
Right now I am sitting in the camp of Bandar theatrics.
However, if this split grows??
I would have to reconsider
There is still way to much cooperation ongoing between SA and the US to think a real split is at hand.
“Second, if Bandar wants to shift away from the alliance with the US, where does he think he could shift to? Most definitely not China, which has a very serious “Islamic problem” on its hands in its western provinces”
I suspect that Bandar and company have much to do with that “islamic problem” in the western provinces
Coincidentally. Or not. There have been Ui/y/ghurs fighting in Syria
and I am quite certain they would have come into town on the Saudi pay roll.
Saker: if this posted already just delete
blogger was being weird, as usual.
Well I loved your piece!
I may not agree with every bit of it, but, I love it!
(I don’t think you want everyone to agree with you anyway, that would just be bizarro)
Petrodollar supremacy does rely on US military hegemony
If the military fails, the dollar will fail.
Right now I am sitting in the camp of Bandar theatrics.
However, if this split grows??
I would have to reconsider
There is still way to much cooperation ongoing between SA and the US to think a real split is at hand.
“Second, if Bandar wants to shift away from the alliance with the US, where does he think he could shift to? Most definitely not China, which has a very serious “Islamic problem” on its hands in its western provinces”
I suspect that Bandar and company have much to do with that “islamic problem” in the western provinces
Coincidentally. Or not. There have been Ui/y/ghurs fighting in Syria
and I am quite certain they would have come into town on the Saudi pay roll.
@ VINEYARDSAKER: Put it differently: remove the US military and the petrodollar disappears overnight.
That is right, but all previous empires died after they started issuing fake money. And for at least 40 years US has been relaying on printing presses, speculations (City of London and Wall St.) and followers of wahabi cult ….
Adann
The petrodollar does help the US, but the US’ influence on oil prices is going to be significant even were a magic wand to be waved that ended it. Ditto the dollar as reserve currency.
The exact effect is, of course, impossible to measure as said effect is as much a function of perception as it is of economic reality, but we can get a rough idea from the amount of dollars outside the US and US dollars used in trade vs. US related trade as a function of overall world trade.
US dollars in world trade: the US is an originator or destination for roughly 12% of overall trade vs. 38% dollars used in all trade. Thus the ‘fair’ amount of US dollars in world trade is something above 10% but far below 38%.
EU trade vs. euros? roughly 37% for trade and 37% of all trade units.
Given that the oil trade is encompassed in the above figures – the 10% to 38% number applies to the roughly $35.5 trillion in annual trade. The ‘overage’ is thus somewhere under $10 trillion/year.
Looking at the amount of dollars outside the US, this is roughly $6 trillion (probably higher now).
The two numbers aren’t so far off – so the impact of the petrodollar standard/dollar as reserve currency is in the $6 to $10 trillion range.
What would the impact of losing this $6 trillion in ‘free money’ be?
Roughly 20 years of US GDP growth (1993 to 2012).
A big deal, but not one which changes the US to Somalia.
Dear Saker – Good post with good logic but with a serious flaw in a key assumption; the widely promoted hype that shale gas and tight oil will lead to US self-sufficiency in oil and energy. As pointed out by various industry experts, these energy sources are more of an investment bubble than a sustainable future. Consequently, control of Saudi oil will remain vital to the US as long as they have any oil to control.
BTW, the main reason IMHO for the folding of Obama is the realization that the threatened cruise missile strike would have failed to impress due to Russian defensive weapons and strategy. And once the appearance of omnipotent power is lost, the Empire’s ability to control/coerce by fear is over. From the Empire’s perspective, it would be far better to maintain the illusion of invincible power and takes a few hits on its “decisiveness”. Patient Observer
Has Saudi spy chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan gone completely insane?
No he is not, he knows he has the backing of AIPAC and the Khazar loyalists of the USG. There are 2 strategies at play here.
1] Control of Islam by Wahhabi’s and a building of a Caliphate.
2] A new Khazar empire with Haifa as its capital with a subservient Christian faith.
All this talk of pipelines are true, but these are the spoils of war given to the allies of the 2 nutters. The alliance of Iran, Russia, China is formidable. remember the last Khazar empire with its Islam mercenaries was defeated by the Rus and it’s allies. History repeats itself.
loved your piece about Russia.
Gives me hope too.
Like finding a brother.
Great job señor Saker, I was beginning to have withdrawals from your blog when suddenly it headlines from Asia Times an article written by you. Muy, muy bien.
SA and USA are in a deathlock, their embrace is much too tight. The wahhabists vermin and the American finance/warrior mercernarios will never cease cooperating. BUT the backstabbing will continue and it will only get uglier.
Like when an old, old friendship is falling apart, each party is hurt they use immature tactics to try to get the other back. Only to further push them away. I speak from experience, I’ve dated many Puerto Rican women.
Fernando
As a Muslim, I find it difficult to think and write objectively about the Saudi’s. Sorry Saker…
From one of your readers who does not have access to the back room clique driven real politics, I really need your voice and now that It has reached a wider audience I am very pleased.
ptsd or shell shocked from the syrian bomb is bandar’s deserved difficulty
Food for thought from kavkazcenter.com:
“The Saudi palace mufti urges to abandon Jihad in Syria”. And it is not the first call that Aal ash-Shaikh has made! Is it a step on the way to cure the insanity of the Saudis?
WizOz
Saudis have an agreement with Pakis on having nukes if they suddenly need, in return of their funding support when Pakis were desperately trying to build some for themselves to survive, after India had theirs…
” Has Saudi spy chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan gone completely insane?”
IMHO, he’s just channeling Kim Jong Il for his GCC classmates. He and his friend Netanyahu got bare-ass spanked in front of the whole school, so he’s embarrassed with a capital “E”. In contrast, Netanyahu doesn’t do “embarrassed.
“… Russia, Iran and Hezbollah (made) some very serious threats… (which) were taken very seriously by the White House”
IMHO, it is highly unlikely that the stand-down was forced by an ultimatum from without. I would argue that the surprise course correction looks to be engineered from within. The Obama Administration had been vacillating for months, clearly of two minds. The “red line” comment was made a year ago, and there were plenty of grumblings from the Pentagon in the meantime that an attack would have unknowable consequences. CJC Dempsey himself was publicly against it. The Putin-Lavrov tag team played their roles, but the course correction on the Empire’s road to Damascus looks to have been engineered in America. Somebody played a power card.
The Littlest Emperor passed the card to Congress, who found themselves looking at a card that trumped even AIPAC’s full court press. And no, it wasn’t the voice of their constituents. Congress have long been deaf to that.
If Moscow et al bet that card, their bluff would be called. Obama had already redefined the USN’s “mission” to little more than kinetic saber rattling… let fly a few hundred Tomahawks and blow enough stuff up to “Send a message”. Was Moscow going to sink a carrier over it? Putin is patently not mad.
A little more intriguing is a possibility advanced by some sources that the rather odd “test firing” of two missiles that seemed to go astray during an earlier Israeli-American naval exercise was actually the missiles being destroyed/diverted by Russian counter-measures. Or, perhaps the missile firing revealed enough about the efficacy of Russian countermeasures that the crews destroyed them. If so, (with a capital IF) the prospect of watching Tomahawks landing randomly around the Eastern Mediterranean would have certainly allowed Dempsey’s vote to carry the day in the Whitehouse and at State. One hopes the theory is never tested live, but if true would have allowed Moscow to take a purely defensive stance, and be seen as quite “sane”.
A more mundane explanation, and one that would get my vote, would be that your resurgent “old Anglo Imperialists” put on their own full court press, perhaps in league with a skeptical Pentagon, and trumped the Neo-Zionists. That a less ideological approach to foreign policy has been struggling to be born since Bush left the scene is apparent. That it has matured to the point where it can out-influence an AIPAC full court press is astonishing, even though it is but one hand in an ongoing game.
It will be interesting to see if Bandar’s head is facing forward if/when it stops spinning. However, the real action will be taking place in Washington where AIPAC et al have redoubled their efforts, and are apparently making headway. More than a few heads are likely to be out-of-alignment when they stop spinning.
Erebus
respected sirs/madams
a point missed out in the article and comments is about the reluctance of US military to Strike Syria due presence of Al Qaeda & its wahabist clones in the so called Free Syria Army.
the military people have been posting comments saying that they didnt want to fly cover for Al Qaeda.
the American warmongers might have been too bothered about this fact but the unforeseeable outcome was considered as well.
Asad regime is blocking the Wahabists from attacking Israel with him gone this will be a free for all part of the world
there is no mention of Israeli element in this debate neither in the original article nor in the comments except from one who has not clarified where Israel stands and how it sees the conflict in middle east.
the fact is that Israeli lobby and the Israeli government itself is pressurising Americans to go to war with not only Syria but also Iran. this suits Saudis very well because their most hated enemies i.e the Shias are going to suffer immense loss & almost a genocide through Al Qaeda & other wahabist elements once Americans are done
So Prince Bandar Bin Sultan might have the last laughs if Israelis twist the arm of Americans into going to war with Syria & then Iran. this is why Saudis have offered Israelis access to their air space if Israel goes ahead with air strike on Iranian nuclear sites.
this eventuality in my opinion cant be ruled out because the rhetoric of Iranians is not helping. their foreign policy has left them with very few friends & their boasting of removing Israel from the face of the earth is blessing to Saudis who can use it to their benefit