By Batiushka for the Saker blog
So when is the Russian winter offensive going to begin? Some thought it would be in December, when the ground had frozen. Now we are nearing February.
However, just remember that the so-called Russian winter offensive was thought up by armchair generals. Of course, it may well exist as one of a number of scenarios among the Russian General Staff and may still happen and soon, but a winter offensive could also turn into a spring offensive, or even into a summer offensive. Planning needs to be flexible, given ever new ingredients in the mix. As long as the Kiev forces, unexpectedly, keep destroying themselves by throwing themselves into the artillery, missile and drone meat-grinder in the south-east of the Ukraine, between Soledar and Artemovsk, with minimal Russian losses, why hurry? There is no hurry. The only ones in a hurry are in the West. They need this conflict to finish and soon, because the West is on the verge of social, economic and political chaos.
Going, going, gone. In Moscow there are those who can fiddle while the West burns.
So a delay has occurred. Why take risks when Kiev wants to commit suicide? Just let them do it. Moreover, the latest events suggest more reasons for delay – internal splits.
First of all, on 17 January there was the resignation of Arestovich as advisor to the President’s Office, ostensibly because he told the truth, that the shattered apartment block in Dnipro was directly or indirectly destroyed by a badly-aimed Ukrainian missile (not for the first time…).
Then, the very next day, on 18 January, came the crash of the French Super Puma helicopter in Brovary (not Kiev). This killed several important figures, not least the Interior Minister and his deputy, as well as innocent children in a nursery school. A friend who lives nearby was able to provide me with facts and pictures soon later. Putting aside the suggestion that the Eurocopter was brought down by another misaimed Ukrainian missile, the crash seems to have occurred because the pilot was flying low in fog and hit a 14-storey apartment building. My friend says the skies above them are full of State helicopters every day, it is how the Zelensky regime travels. Too frightened to do it any other way. Sooner or later an accident was inevitable. Whatever the reason for the crash, it does mean that there are now convenient vacancies at the top. A power struggle is probably under way. And this is to be expected, because the Kiev forces have been chased out of the strategic town of Soledar, Artemovsk (Bakhmut) is about to fall and with it the rest of the Donbass. It is a rout because Ukrainian losses there are monumental, not to say suicidal.
As a result, the Kiev regime is pleading with certain countries in the West for more tanks. At best it may receive about 200 (in reality, probably fewer than 100) assorted obsolete tanks and armoured vehicles from various Western countries, and probably only in a few months’ time. Whereas it needs 2,000 tanks and armoured vehicles yesterday. But for the moment the divided West is reluctant to give the Ukraine anything, apart from sweet words. Promises, promises…they are so cheap, especially when you are so short of cash and you know the Russians will probably destroy most of your donated equipment before it even gets to the front. Moreover, all this comes against the background of a Ukrainian economy on short-term (no-one will give it anything long-term), monthly Western life support (otherwise no salaries or pensions can be paid). And this is from a West which is on the verge of social, economic and political chaos and against the background of a Ukrainian energy system which, for the moment, has been 50% destroyed and a military logistics system which has been severely disrupted, by Russian missiles.
Little wonder that the Kiev regime distrusts the West. The latter does not have bottomless pockets. Zelensky is probably coming to an end. He already got the cold shoulder in Washington before Christmas. Now he appears to be opposed by the Kiev Armed Forces commander, Zaluzhny, who seems to have had conversations with his US counterpart in Poland behind Zelensky’s back. Generally, speaking, military men hate wars; they are the work only of politicians. After all, politicians do not face the risk of freezing, getting maimed or dying in agony. Maybe we are coming to a reshuffle in Kiev. Whatever the American puppeteers order. But the problem here is do the American puppeteers know what they want to order? They seem to be divided among themselves.
While Washington and its NATO allies have no strategy to win the war in the Ukraine, let alone an exit strategy, the Russians do. In the four months since Russia ordered partial mobilisation, 300,000 additional reservists have joined their units in the east or along Ukraine’s northern border. Meanwhile in the south the Russian Black Sea Fleet patrols. So far Russian infantry have not really taken part in this war. So far most of the work has been done by local anti-Kiev Ukrainian (Donbass) freedom-fighters and the Wagner contract group. The stage is set for a ground war, either from the east, or from the north, or from the south, or maybe all together. Washington’s nightmare. For nobody in Washington, used to fighting ill-trained, suicidal fanatics armed only with kalashnikovs, ever foresaw this. 500,000 + armed Russians are waiting on the borders of Kiev-held territory to liberate their Ukrainian brothers and sisters from the US puppet regime in Kiev. And the only ill-trained, suicidal fanatics here are the Kiev forces.
Going, going, gone. In Moscow there are those who can fiddle while the West burns.
Let us not forget that the conflict in the Ukraine is about the struggle of the United States to maintain its dinosaur’s status as the world’s last superpower. More exactly, it is about America’s attempt to destroy China as a rival. For since China, allied with Russia, is unbeatable, China has to be attacked through Eurasian Russia. In this crazed neocon video-game fantasy, the USA has overlooked Western Europe. In one sense that is understandable, since its leaders are just a pack of mindless Pavlovian dogs, intent on copying their master in Washington – and a pile of dollars greatly helps their salivating capacity for imitation. However, the US mistake is as usual to look only at its puppets. This was the same mistake as in Baghdad and Kabul, or for that matter in Tehran and Saigon, not to mention in Manila and a host of capitals in Latin America. Appoint an English-speaking yes-man, give him a Swiss bank account full of dollars and a US passport, ensure he has control over the capital and its TV and radio station and then you will control the whole country. Only Hamid Karzai didn’t and you won’t either.
Western Europe, the EU and the UK, with a few other bits and pieces, is also inhabited by 500 million people (the other 50 odd million belong to the elite). Some, especially from the elites, live in the capitals. The vast majority do not live there and generally despise those who do live in the capitals. Ask a Frenchman what he thinks of ‘les sales parisiens’ (filthy Parisians), ask a Romanian what he thinks of the elite in Bucharest, a Pole what he thinks of those in Warsaw or an Englishman what he thinks of Londoners. If you don’t believe me, ask Macron in France. Alternatively, ask any Frenchman what he thinks of France’s real rulers – the grossly overpaid super-elite in Brussels. The English hated them so much, they had Brexit. A lot of Germans, who by a huge majority never wanted to give up the Deutschmark, got quite jealous of that, even though the incompetent and perfidious British elite totally mishandled the Brexit negotiation process.
If in Western Europe, the vast majority don’t like their leaders, they will eventually – even the passive British – get rid of them and they will appoint leaders whom Washington does not like, Le Pen, Farage etc. Remember Orban? He is already in power, as is Erdogan (though he is in Turkey). The Ukrainian conflict is already reshaping Europe’s totally outdated (1945) security architecture and forcing a reconfiguration. The realignment will not be in Washington’s favour. Demonstrations against NATO are already starting in various European countries. But what is more likely to topple the US puppet elite is strikes and protests. Europeans hate their elites. The spoilt elites may tell their peoples: ‘Let them eat cake’. But they have forgotten that what the people want is bread.
Once Western Europe, including even the UK, has gone, the end of the short unipolar era will be here. The domino effect, from Kiev to Dublin, is surely only a matter of time. Remember the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989? Within twenty-five months the whole of the Soviet Eastern European Empire fell, one country after another, until in December 1991, the Soviet Union itself fell. Berlin to Vladivostok. Well, the time is now up for the American Empire in its turn. It will also fall, and for the same reasons. The SU (Soviet Union) went. So will its reverse, the US (United States). Red stars, white stars, they have both had their time. Keep your eyes on Western Europe.
Going, going, gone. In Moscow there are those who can fiddle while the West burns.
19 January 2023
And it’s going and gone..
In recent decades, the world has gone through a dramatic shift, with the dismantling of the bipolar world order and America’s ascendance to “sole superpower” status. Lately, this process has taken another turn, with the unipolar world giving way to the rise of multipolarity. Although this reshaping isn’t complete, it’s certainly an ongoing process that can only be stopped by a disaster of cataclysmic proportions. Expectedly, the unipolar world isn’t giving up and the United States, the primary bearer of this system, ever so euphemistically dubbed “the rules-based world order“, is trying its best to stop the advent of multipolarity.
However, the belligerent thalassocracy is falling into the same trap as many other empires before it – imperial overstretch. This term, coined by historian Paul Kennedy, first appeared in his 1987 book “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers”. Kennedy used it to describe what happens to great powers when their ambitions become unsustainable, requiring greater resources than they could muster. Interestingly, he argued that the US, which at the time was in the middle of a major ascent under the Reagan administration, was already experiencing the early stages of this phenomenon.
Although this notion could be challenged by the fact that America was just about to reach the peak of its global power, later culminating with the almost parallel invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, Kennedy’s forward-thinking arguments are reinforced by present events. He warned about the great powers’ unrelenting ambition of global dominance, insisting this inevitably leads to the depletion of their resources. Precisely this is happening to the US-led political West. Kennedy’s ability to accurately predict this outcome, despite the massive show of force the US displayed during the 1990s and 2000s, is a testament to his vast knowledge and insight.
While the US was busy destroying dozens of countries across the world, the global economy was slowly pivoting toward Asia, with China playing the central role in this process. The colossal squandering of America’s seemingly endless resources led the world into multiple economic crises in little over a decade, resulting in a massive rise in debt, fiscal deficits and an overall decline in actual Western economic power. With the general outsourcing of its production capacity, a process the political West hoped would be secured through its monetary dominance, the belligerent power pole tried setting up a system that would ensure its perpetual global supremacy.
This scheme, although functioning for decades, started failing after the political West escalated its encroachment on Russia. Moscow, a dormant superpower since the early 1990s, became increasingly frustrated as its cooperation initiatives were not only rejected, but met with crawling or even open hostility. This forced the Eurasian giant to rethink its approach, finally culminating with the February 24 counteroffensive. Ever since, the political West has been trying to mobilize its resources against Russia. It was precisely at this point that the US was exposed as being in an imperial overstretch, trying to tackle multiple global and regional adversaries simultaneously.
On January 17, the New York Times reported America is now forced to transfer munitions from its secret stockpile in Israel to the Kiev regime, now increasingly reliant on Western weapons. As the Pentagon predicts Russia is in the late stages of preparations for a major offensive, the Neo-Nazi junta will need hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and other weapons. The report states that much of the previously secret stash had already been shipped to Europe and will soon be transferred to the Kiev regime. This isn’t the first time America is using overseas arms reserves, since a similar cache in South Korea is also being tapped into.
Both Israel and South Korea have officially denied sending so-called “lethal aid” to the Neo-Nazi junta, making this highly controversial, as Russia could see it as a hostile move. This could complicate the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, as Israel is faced with Russian presence in Syria, while South Korea often relies on Moscow to ease tensions with its nuclear-armed northern neighbor. The involvement of both countries in Western aggression against Russia could lead to an uncontrollable escalation in these areas, as Russia is highly unlikely to help countries it views as hostile. In turn, this might further erode America’s power projection capabilities in both regions.
As the US faces mounting issues maintaining its global empire, it recently announced a revised strategy that is supposed to give its vassals a greater role in various geopolitical theaters, including a massive Japanese rearmament program aimed against American adversaries in Asia-Pacific. In other areas, such as the Middle East, Washington DC and Israel are trying to form a wider anti-Iranian coalition. However, with Moscow and Tehran establishing closer ties due to Western pressure, Israeli balancing with Russia is becoming more difficult, if not impossible, endangering its position in the region.
As America’s global power wanes, its reliance on regional allies and satellite states will inevitably lead to problems, as they will be less prone to blindly following Washington DC’s diktat. Israel, South Korea and others will try to avoid bad relations with Moscow and Beijing, while the European Union will always be too slow to reach a consensus on most key issues. Extremist regimes, such as the Neo-Nazi junta, and non-state actors (i.e. numerous NATO-backed terrorist groups) will be increasingly difficult to control and will need ever more resources, further exacerbating America’s imperial overstretch.
Well done!
The saying long ago> Motis in Fine Velocior… But I do have thoughts…since the Piratical Method, the fascists’ tool, is to divide a people, a population, and to set one part against the other…as we see happening in Europe (and 404!) and in the US … seen this way the contest seems to shape as one of the whole against the rulers’ attempt to suborn some “minority”…as the people are forced to see one another as one in juxtaposition. One recalls the Sino-Russian brotherhood…a cathodic response to the Imperial foolis…quite natural…and evidence of Imperial Delusion, madness. The fascists will stop at nothing…
We, who see “now”, have difficulty seeing Time and History a a river…fella has to live a long time, ah suspicion…anyway.
It’s obvious that the Empire is dead already, but having final convulsions.
To-day I met, at random, three men…a cop from Belfast (!) in the bigcity 60 klicks away, and two other fellas…they all agreed with the proposition that “Michelle” O’Bummer is Mike, that “Biden” is dead and we see an imposter, that the tanks and so forth are simply targets (we have many infantry veterans) for disposal, that “Zeeman” is a dope fiend (the old US army had lotsa dopers…this fella today spoke of using the tanks as places to smoke hashish, before the wall came down)…. Now then, when the willing suspension of disbelief can no longer be sustained, even by cops! Then in fact we are on the cusp…I see the icons burning, General Lee pulled down, so? the Last icon…that would be the flag itself, eh?
The ordinary people all know, more or less…I suspect people are all on edge, many subconsciously, tense, awaiting the nest shoe dropping…
Best! P
Excellent analysis and observations. It is also completely consistent to what my friends, family, and business associates in North America, Europe, and Australasia are seeing and saying. People around the world have had it with the ZOG of the USA government and want them to just go away.
Why rush anything? The wobbles in the Western fantasy economy are already increasing in both frequency and amplitude, and despite the endless bluster from the DC Bubble People, once the coming recession/depression starts to bite, 404 will be completely forgotten.
The one thing that may actually stir boobus americanus out of their pathetic torpor is the threat of their sons and daughters being drafted to be cannon fodder for a dying empire.
Offering a shovel is as far as one should go when your enemy is busy digging their own grave.
“Let us not forget that the conflict in the Ukraine is about the struggle of the United States to maintain its dinosaur’s status as the world’s last superpower. More exactly, it is about America’s attempt to destroy China as a rival. For since China, allied with Russia, is unbeatable, China has to be attacked through Eurasian Russia”.
China and Russia represent a “NEW” Financial order based on Sovereignty (i.e. Sovereign Credit). If either China or Russia tomorrow agree to continue trading their National Wealth (i.e. labor, finished goods, natural resources) for “made out of thin air” US Dollars, which btw are useless for internal development, then the conflict would end. To strangle China, the Hegemon needs to prevent China from getting “natural resources” from Russia. Just like in WW2, the USA forced Japan to war by cutting off it’s access to buy oil. No oil, no industry, no economy, no country. Japan was already in the Anglo Saxon’s rifle scope as early as the 1890’s (after successful Meiji Restoration using economic theories by Fredrich List). At this time, Japan (like China 15 years ago) was destined to be an economic giant using Industrial Capitalism and Sovereign credit. Therefore, by 1900, for America/UK to maintain it’s Hegemony, Japan needed to be destroyed or put on a short leash. Only question for the Anglo Saxons was how to goad Japan into a conflict. Readers here know the “modus operandi”. Make up a pretense, sanctions, sanctions and more sanctions, massive propaganda depicting enemy as inhuman and then war. Anglo Saxon playbook never gets old. Pearl Harbour was NOT a surprise nor the reason America went to war with Japan just like Russia and China being in the spotlight is no surprise.
The US knows it cannot prevail in a conventional war.
The only option it has for winning is going nuclear.
And there are just enough crazies in the US policy making aparatus to go for that option.
We are not out of the woods yet.
I’m torn between Handel’s Dead March and Chopin’s Funeral March to describe Western La La Land’s future outlook.
I pretty sure the Wagner group has chosen Siegfried’s death and Funeral march for the Empire’s Götterdämmerung. :)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wXh5JprKqiU
Yes, the Wagner group is likely to choose, based on namesake, the Wagner march.
Many composers wrote funeral marches: Wagner, Gounod, Chopin, Beethoven, Mozart, Mendelssohn, Bach. Or consider the dance of the dead; Saint Saens, Dance Macabre.
But I think the more appropriate choice is the Isle of the Dead, by Rachmaninoff.
Yes the ‘Living Dead’ actually believed they could kill Tchaikovsky. I had my suspicions but this was final proof of their insanity.
I mean, how does one go about ripping out the souls of hundreds of millions?
How about Charles Gounod’s “Funeral March of a Marionette”; after all this best describes the visible cadre of the collective west’s leaders and enablers.
More damaging than the military or economic shock to the West willbe the psychological one.
How will they cope with the realisation that they are not at the top anymore and the only reason they were at the “top” was bcause they lied, cheated, stole and killed more than others were willing to do to get to and stayat the “top”.c.
We are likely to see repeats of witch burning, pogroms, book burning etc. It has happened before.
It is somewhat of a cliche to remark on the fact that people, i.e. the masses, do not appreciate how much power they truly wield – or potentially wield, if they could organise to use it. The existing power structures are extremely fragile, even when they appear strong & stable, they are essentially fragile, & the ruling classes of whichever society are acutely aware of that fact. The social order is in fact an ongoing process, & any day it can change, as the Berlin Wall of 1989 demonstrated. If there is an enduring lesson of history, this is it, power structures are inherently unstable. This is one of the reasons that the powers that be, especially in the west, are always scheming against the people & looking for ways to disempower them. This is the inherent paranoia of illegitimate power, I do not think we have seen a more blatant demonstration of this since the end of WW2 than with the pandemic lockdown & then the vaccine mandate.
Hello a dear greeting to all,
fortunately I became aware of this blog.
Very interesting posts.
@ The US knows that it cannot stand in a conventional war.
There is a lot of preparation going on here. It appears that Russia is being cautious, perhaps you have information about imminent escalations.
If anyone needs a sign that Russia is preparing for all-out war, all they have to do is look at what happened in Moscow earlier today. PANTSIR-S air defense systems were hoisted by cranes onto the roofs of the Russian Ministry of Defense and several other government buildings around Moscow.
In the photo below, you can see the PANTSIR-S installed on the headquarters of the Russian Ministry of Defense in Moscow:
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/flash-russia-installing-pantsir-s-air-defenses-on-roofs-of-mod-and-gov-t-buildings-in-moscow
i am sorry my english is not so good.
Thanks for the good contribution, Batiushka
According to latest reports this is the preliminary list of weapons that the Collective West will further supply Ukraine with –
United States
▪️100 BMP Bradley;
▪️100 tracked armored personnel carriers M113;
▪️18 155-mm self-propelled guns M109А6;
▪️250 M1117 armored vehicles;
▪️138 HMMWV SUVs;
▪️100 Stryker wheeled armored personnel carriers;
▪️Ammunition GLSDB;
▪️36 105 mm howitzers;
▪️1 Patriot air defense/missile defense battery;
▪️6 Nasams air defense batteries;
▪️18 MLRS HIMARS;
Canada
▪️200 Senator armored vehicles;
▪️1 NASAMS air defense battery;
United Kingdom
▪️14 Challenger 2 tanks;
▪️600 Brimstone missiles;
▪️30 155mm AS90 self-propelled guns;
▪️200 infantry fighting vehicles / armored personnel carriers;
Poland
▪️14 Leopard 2 tanks (most likely A4 modifications);
France
▪️40 AMX-10RC wheeled tanks;
▪️armored cars Bastion;
Germany
▪️40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles;
▪️1 Patriot air defense/missile defense battery;
▪️3 Iris-T air defense batteries + 3 TRML-4D radars;
▪️2 TRML-4D radars;
Norway, Denmark
16 Zuzana-2 155mm wheeled self-propelled guns
Czech Republic
▪️120 T-72M tanks;
Netherlands
▪️1 Patriot air defense/missile defense battery;
Sweden
▪️50 infantry fighting vehicles CV-90;
▪️12 155 mm Archer wheeled self-propelled guns;
Estonia
▪️10 FH70 155mm howitzers;
▪️10 122-mm howitzers D30;
Italy
▪️1 air defense / missile defense battery SAMP / T;
Czech
▪️26-30 152-mm Dana-M2 wheeled self-propelled guns;
Norway
▪️155mm Caesar wheeled self-propelled guns.
Our “Western Elite” are human. They know that they’ve ‘lit a fuse’ and that their personal safety is very much ‘on-the-line’ … most especially if the Russians win the War. I would judge that the prospect of facing personal consequences, has never before ‘crossed their radar’.
They’re human, and they’re undoubtedly afeared of retribution, either from an outraged Russian’ horde, or the masses of common people within Europe. Would anyone be surprised to find that a goodly portion of those ‘common people’ would welcome the opportunity to deal with their Leaders in the old-fashioned way?
I wonder what escape plans they have in place. To where will they flee? As I see it, they have the two options, either double-down, or abandon ship. I simply cannot believe that the Russian people will accept any proposal to, “Put all of this behind us, and forget that it ever happened.” I know that I wouldn’t settle for that. Would you?
Should be pretty obvious to any intelligent observer that Russia has blocked ALL NATOs’ communications and satellites !
Murdering the Russian recruits at 00.01 on New Years Day WAS the red line – which is of course is why Vlad was able to confidently call a Christmas TRUCE !
Now the American Terrorist State is calling on Ukraine to wait until the cavalry arrives – which will never come !
IT’S OVER !
Have NO idea how the Rothschild’s owned media are going to SPIN this !
https://www.rt.com/russia/570243-ukraine-fixate-defending-bakhmut-artyomovsk/