by LeDahu for The Saker Blog
The last couple weeks in the Eastern Mediterranean could remind a casual observer of some sort of a military parade, with members of the US-led coalition bringing an ever increasing number of military assets to the region.
The number of warships flying various flags being dispatched as a show of force to the Eastern Mediterranean has been increasing on a daily basis. The warships of the Standing NATO Maritime Group 2, including HNLMS De Ruyter of the Royal Netherlands Navy, Greece’s Elli,HMCS Ville de Québec of the Royal Canadian Navy, and four American Tomahawk-wielding destroyers – USS Carney, USS Ross, USS Winston S. Churchill and USS Bulkeley. Even the flagship of the US Navy’s Sixth Fleet USS Mount Whitney made an appearance in the region together with at least three of the multi-purpose Los Angeles class nuclear submarines, one of which was the USS Newport News, which was previously stationed in Gibraltar.
Further still, this massive force was then joined by an American carrier strike group, led by the USS Harry S. Truman, bringing along the missile cruiser USS Normandy together with a number of destroyers.
France has also been keeping its FREMM class frigate Auvergne stationed in the area. Further still, Germany’s FGS Augsburg passed through the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the Mediterranean Sea on September 21.
Taking stock
Part 1
A sense of deja-vu. Two recent articles (one here) write about the naval deployments in the Mediterranean, especially in the Eastern part. Both mention the increase in numbers as a show of show. ‘Unprecedented number of military ships’, ‘build-up’ ‘sudden’, ‘massive force’ are used as descriptors. It seems to me that emotions take priority over facts these days, so I would to take stock of what is recent ‘news’ and compare to other naval events that took place in the Eastern Mediterranean.
To quote one article, ‘a casual observer of some sort’ might easily jump to such conclusions.
What both articles failed to recognise that the current state of events is neither ‘massive’ or ‘unprecedented’. Firstly, let’s turn back to March – April 2018, to see a very similar situation, (see image 1), with increased geopolitical tensions, the arrival and then the departure of an US carrier group, (USS Theodore Roosevelt, CVN-71), well before the subsequent missile strikes against Syria. I will provide an outline of the other ‘massive’ event that took place in 2013 in part 2.
The continuous presence of NATO warships, all undertaking maritime situational awareness operations, (watching the Russian Navy ships off Syria). I seem to recall one Danish navy ship ‘Absalon’ getting singled by a Russian reporter as being the obligatory NATO watcher, when the ‘Admiral Kuznetsov’ was deployed to the eastern Mediterranean in November 2016. The fact that the current role is assigned to a group of warships, who take turns to provide NATO’s maritime situational awareness’, is not unprecedented but routine, probably tediously so.
I could say, the exact same template is being repeated this turn round, except for the presence of a US carrier group, the ‘USS H Truman’, (CVN 75) group is somewhat in the North Atlantic, between Halifax and Iceland. They are indeed in the 6th Fleet area of operations but wisely avoiding being in the middle of an imminent ‘medicane’, by a few thousand nautical miles (sarc off). A couple of US destroyers nominally attached to this group did make recent port calls into Rota, which triggered the attention of ship OSINT spotters. The ‘USS Normandy; ‘USS Forrest Sherman’, ‘USS Arleigh Burke’ and ‘USS Hue City’ are all with the carrier. This is a similar pattern to what happened back in March and early April, as it is known that some destroyers operate separately to the main carrier escort group. More on the US Navy later on.
NATO
It is therefore not an ‘unprecedented event’, but the latest iteration of a combination of US, NATO, French and Russian naval deployments, (an ebb and flow of arriving ships and departing ships). Take for instance the French Navy’s FREMM frigate currently in the eastern Mediterranean, it is ostensibly part of ‘Operation Chammal’, ongoing for the last 4 years. One or two French naval ships are permanently deployed in the region, autonomously to NATO’s ships. So, no major changes here.
Similarly, the German Navy routinely sends out a ship for the Lebanese-based UNIFIL operations. This time it is the FGS ‘Oldenburg’ that has recently transited the Mediterranean. The FGS ‘Ausburg’ (213) was recently reported to have entered the Mediterranean. Meaning that it is more than likely to replace the ‘FGS Braunschweig’ which is part of another SNMG2 group providing missions in support of ‘Op Sea Guardian’ in the Aegean Sea. The German Navy has provided a ship to this operation since Spring 2016.
Image 2 – Source Russian Ministry of Defence Briefing, March 2018.
This situation update provided by the Russian MoD back in March 2018, outlines the constituent parts of NATO (Operation Sophia with EU in box 1, Operation Sea Guardian in box 2, current location of SNMG2 in box 3) and the UNIFIL naval operations (box 4). The only difference between April and now is the location of the most of the SNMG2 ships, who are understandably now monitoring the increased Russian Navy group. (3 were marked as being in Koper in the above map). Now there are 4, including the ‘HNLMS De Ruyter’ (Netherlands, last in Cyprus), ‘HS ‘Elli’ (Greece), ‘HMCS Ville de Québec’ (Canada) and ‘ESPS Cristobal Colon’ (Spain).
Did you notice those catch-all operations, which apparently have the potential to shape shift, deviate from the original public fronted missions’ statements, according to the political necessities (Chammal, Sea Guardian)? These are the latest evolution of multinational naval forces, operating for well over a decade now. It is just that the security challenges keep evolving too, (mostly self-inflicted too – i.e. Libya), thereby keeping NATO ‘flexible and versatile’. The fact that the Russian Navy has become more permanent and more visible has added another grain into the NATO’s cogs. (More on that in Part 2).
US Navy presence in Mediterranean
From the April’s image, the ‘USS New York’ (central yellow box) left, with only the ‘USS Mount Whitney’, the 6th Fleet flagship, apparently in the Mediterranean, (shown on original image going through the Straits of Gibraltar). To note that ‘USS Mount Whitney’ has been ‘making an appearance’ permanently in the Mediterranean since 2011, contrary to recent comments. The last port call was Thessaloniki, Greece, as part of the Thessaloniki International Fair. The forward-deployed Rota-based destroyers, (DESRON 60), are still there, again no change in numbers or posture. The ‘USS Carney’ was with the French ship ‘Chevalier Paul’, but has since gone westward back towards Spain for a joint exercise: ‘SMARTEX181’. It is more than likely that the ‘USS Porter’, ‘USS Donald Cook’ have called in into a Crete, Cypriot or Turkish port in recent times, like earlier in 2018, like in 2017. The ‘USS Winston Churchill’ is also in the Mediterranean, recently with the ‘USS Carney’.
In a nutshell, there is no ‘doubling-down’ or ‘escalating tensions’, if we are to compare the situation with the end of March and at the beginning of April 18. The real tensions with diplomatic daggers drawn are in the halls and corridors of power.
The Russian Navy
To cap it all, the ‘unprecedented event’ was in fact the build-up of Russian naval forces, from four different regions.
The Russian Navy presence off Syria has recently reduced, with the departure of the ‘Severomorsk’ last week through the Suez Canal, with the oiler ‘Dubna’, to deploy first to the Gulf of Aden and then into the Indian Ocean.
The ‘Admiral Essen’ first visited Poros in Greece last week, followed by a visit to Messina, Italy. The latter was part of the 110th commemoration of a devastating earthquake and tsunami that hit the city in 1908, and in which the Russian Navy were on hand to help. What is interesting to note, both are NATO countries – escalating tensions? Certainly not at ceremonial, diplomatic or national level. Back in May, it was the turn of the oceanographic ship ‘Admiral Vladimirskiy’ to go sightseeing in Messina.
What does this all suggest? That the recent hint of naval posturing and showmanship has largely given way to routine deployments and exercises. The hint of an exception is the standoff with Israel.
Normal military air and sea services resume, judging by the lack of red zones in the NOTAMs since the 27th September.
Next Part 2 – Taking stock: 2013 and 2014 disposal operation of Syrian chemical arms.
PS – contrary to the lurid tale of HMS Talent lurking off Syria, on the 28th September, the Trafalgar-class nuclear submarine was once more off Gibraltar. HMS Dragon was off Gibraltar on the 20th September on route to the Gulf.
ENDS
Mr. Saker, Sir:
It is a relief to know that the situation in the Mediterranean is more or less routine, except for Israel, comments by John “National Guard War Non-hero” Bolton notwithstanding.
But what do you make of recent decisions by Israel to discuss allowing transit between Gaza and Egypt, and between Syria’s Golan and Syria’s Quneitra? Could this be some sort of logical response to the recent deployment of more advanced anti-aircraft systems to Syria?
I posited elsewhere that VVP, rather than having a weakness for Israel, as some have suggested, prefers instead to utilize diplomacy to prod strong leaders such as Netanyahu and Erdogan into doing what is best for all nations in the region, rather than seeking the petty gain of one nation at the expense of another. At least, I hope so.
If my supposition is correct, then this would explain why he ignored the French frigate; Macron is too weak to be useful.
Mr. LeDahu, Sir.
Firstly, my apology for addressing my question to the Saker and not to yourself, but I would be very interested in the opinion anyone would provide.
Now I see that the blog has more or less addressed this three postings later.
Thank you for the accurate, timely SitRep.
What are you thoughts on the East Med Russian flotilla? Will they build a fleet over time or merely stick with slicing off a good bit of the Black Sea Fleet and use them in the Syria region?
My thoughts – wait and see, but certainly the new class of project 22800 “Karakurt” small missile ships (MRK) will have likely to have an important role in the Mediterranean group. Hence the Buyan-class shipsCaspian Flotilla now off Syria. What I call the ankle nippers.
http://sudostroenie.info/novosti/24362.html (In Russian) This article highlights the versatility and prompt reactivity of naval shipbuilders and the Russian MoD to overcome the negative events triggered in 2014.
I am most fascinated by the information but I struggle trying to extract a conclusion from it.
LD
Thanks for the sitrep. Great to have the info in bulk, like this, instead of trying to piece the situation together from little bits of it scattered across many news articles.
MM
Conclusion? I believe the info shows that there isn’t a major build up of nato naval forces, but more of the routine deployments we have been seeing for several years.
Thank you, one of the main reasons for doing this is to able to provide an overview.
The western belligerents are really pathetic. They so desperately want a war and get outmaneuvered so instead the israelis snipe Palestinians, the usa and its body lice from france and uk sell arms to maul Yemenis and Syria gets stronger every day.
The only casualty from the amassed fleet in the Mediterranean is likely to be a tanker or oligarch cruise ship rammed by a yankee destroyer or aircraft carrier as they have proven so good at in the south China sea. Daily le petit micron frets in his palace desperately hoping that the fool from over the channel will just go away and let him get on with chemical games in Idlib. That theresa may had stuffed everything with that hoax over the skripals and micron is beyond grouchy. Even his bodyguard (lover?) has taken to venting on the good folk of paris.
All this obscene waste of money paraded about the Mediterranean. They are pigs.
“Body lice”… I like it.
Better than my previous favourite, “catamites”.
With so many ships from the US and NATO, it is overkill and designed to overwhelm the Russian Navy. Again, tactics of a bully.
Russia better play it cool.
Thanks LeDahu for explaining all the naval comings and goings. Appreciate your knowledgeable perspective. Now about those daggers in the halls of power… so PM Trudeau hosted Spain’s PM Sanchez on Sept. 23rd and the two of them signed a Cooperation Agreement. There is some interesting wording in here. The concluding paragraph gets to the heart of the matter: “As maritime countries that share the Atlantic Ocean as a fundamental and formative element of their identities, Canada and Spain will continue to prioritize ocean-related cooperation, such as protecting our oceans for use today and for future generations.”
https://pm.gc.ca/eng/news/2018/09/23/joint-declaration-canada-spain-cooperation-agenda
Ok. So are these two nations dropping the gauntlet, so to speak, and saying that they expect to influence North Atlantic Ocean-related issues, independently from NATO and the EU? And where does Portugal fit into this?
Or France, which gets chastised by Western naval experts for being too autonomous from NATO.
The degree to which individual countries operate in or out of NATO sphere of influence is getting more interesting these days. There is certainly some divergent views on maritime security and power projection.
Too early to make a strong assertion or assessment, but thank you for pointing this out.
Lavrov’s deadpan comeback at the UN press conference about interfering in Catalonia is especially hilarious, if Spain is trying to assert itself.
One more thing: on the Canadian Forces Instagram, Photo of the Week… if this is more ‘abstract art’, it appears that the Canadian soldiers captured someone(s), post Il-20 downing. (That “Retribution” tattoo is seriously bad-a**.)
Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Chrystia Freeland was supposed to give a speech at the UN today. It’s postponed until Monday. Supposedly, because she’s engaged in such intensive negotiations with Washington about trade (NAFTA.) My two cents: it’s absurd to suggest that Freeland can’t speak at the UN because of a North American trade dispute. So what is the subject of these intensive negotiations? (That part is verifiable.) To switch topics to abstract art, Canadian soldiers would not capture anyone without some kind of consent from the Pentagon, I think, even if Russia’s involved.
While this is all fascinating, my contention is, that at the outbreak of hostilities, the voulnerability of surface fleets as such will become an embarassing and undeniable fact for all the Navies involved. Those, with air and sub-surface assets, land bases nearby will fare better.
And a casus belli unfortunately for the usual propaganda channels.
Thanx for the breakdown though Mr D – jes sayin’…
“Further still, this massive force was then joined by an American carrier strike group, led by the USS Harry S. Truman, bringing along the missile cruiser USS Normandy together with a number of destroyers.”
Just curious as to the source for this?
Southfront maintains a map of US Carrier group positions. https://maps.southfront.org/us-carrier-strike-groups-locations-map-september-24-2018/ They’ve shown that the US carrier groups left the Med sometime ago. The HST is listed as being off the coast of Nova Scotia playing war games, and next due to return to port in Norfolk, VA. Since US nuclear carriers are massive things that are hard not to notice, these public maps have usually been accurate in the past.
I’ve noticed this because after Putin gave his speech about the new Russian weapons last spring, the way US Carrier groups are deployed has radically changed. They used to be pushed forward to project power. For example, the attacks in Iraq always concentrated multiple US carriers. Since Putin’s speech, the US carrier groups run for home before any planned escalations occur. Just recently we saw the obviously pre-planned series of events related to Idlib, and the Americans were careful to get their carrier group out of there before they began their provocations, whereas in the passed the carrier would have been deliberately there to both intimidate and then to lead the resulting strikes.
With all of anonymous postings here, it is difficult for me to distinguish who is posting what or if it is a thread. So dear anonymous, if you are asking a question to me, then would you be so kind as to provide a name tag other than anonymous. It doesn’t take 30 seconds to do and help to establish a little bit of rapport, if you are a frequent commentator. Otherwise I shall not bother to answer the question.
Thanks