Sitting alongside French President Macron during the 100th anniversary to commemorate the end of World War I, Putin and Trump stole the show in Paris
by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with The Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
The Elysee Palace protocol was implacable. Nobody in Paris would be allowed to steal the spotlight away from the host, President Emmanuel Macron, during the 100th anniversary of Armistice Day marking the end of World War I.
After all, Macron was investing all his political capital as he visited multiple World War I battlefields while warning against the rise of nationalism and a surge in right-wing populism across the West. He was careful to always place the emphasis on praising “patriotism.”
A battle of ideas now rages across Europe, epitomized by the clash between the globalist Macron and populism icon Matteo Salvini, the Italian interior minister. Salvini abhors the Brussels system. Macron is stepping up his defense of a “sovereign Europe.”
And much to the horror of the US establishment, Macron proposes a real “European army” capable of autonomous self-defense side by side with a “real security dialogue with Russia.”
Yet all these “strategic autonomy” ideals collapse when you must share the stage, live, with the undisputed stars of the global show: President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin.
So the optics in Paris were not exactly of a Yalta 2.0 conference. There were no holds barred to keep Trump and Putin apart. Seating arrangements featured, from left to right, Trump, Chancellor Angela Merkel, Macron, his wife Brigitte and Putin. Neither Trump nor Putin, for different reasons, took part in a “walking in the rain” stunt evoking peace.
And yet they connected. Sir Peter Cosgrove, the governor general of Australia, confirmed that Trump and Putin, at a working lunch, had a “lively and friendly” conversation for at least half an hour.
No one better than Putin himself to reveal, even indirectly, what they really talked about. Three themes are absolutely key.
On the Macron-proposed, non-NATO European army: “Europe is … a powerful economic union and it is only natural that they want to be independent and … sovereign in the field of defense and security.”
On the consequences of such an army: It would be “a positive process” that would “strengthen the multipolar world.” On top of it, Russia’s position “is aligned with that of France.”
On relations with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Washington: “It is not us who are going to withdraw from the INF Treaty. It is the Americans who plan to do that.” Putin added that Moscow has not scheduled military drills near NATO borders as an attempt to appease an already tense situation. Yet Russia has “no issue with” NATO drills and expects at least a measure of dialogue in the near future.
Enter the Avangard
Vast sectors of the US Deep State are in denial, but Putin may have been able to impress on Trump the necessity of serious dialogue due to an absolutely key vector: the Avangard.
The Avangard is a Russian hypersonic glide vehicle capable of flying over Mach 20 – 24,700km/h, or 4 miles per second – and one of the game-changing Russian weapons Putin announced at his ground-breaking March 1 speech.
The Avangard has been in the production assembly line since the summer of 2018, and is due to become operational in the southern Urals by the end of next year or early 2019.
In the near future, the Avangard may be launched by the formidable Sarmat RS-28 intercontinental ballistic missile and reach Washington in a mere 15 minutes, flying in a cloud of plasma “like a meteorite” – even if the launch is from Russian territory. Serial production of Sarmat ICBMs starts in 2021.
The Avangard simply cannot be intercepted by any existing system on the planet – and the US knows it. Here is General John Hyten, head of US Strategic Command: “We don’t have any defense that could deny the employment of such a weapon against us.”
Iran as the new Serbia?
I wish I had been in Paris – my home in Europe – to follow these concentric World War I–related plots live. But it was no less fascinating to follow them from Islamabad, where I am now, back from the northern part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The British Empire used 1.5 million to 2 million Indian colonial subjects to fight, and die, for empire in that war. Quite a few were Punjabis, from what is now Pakistan.
As for the future, Trump is certainly aware of Russia’s hypersonic breakthroughs. Trump and Putin also talked about Syria, and might have touched on Iran, although no one at the working lunch leaked anything about it.
Assuming the dialogue continues at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires at the end of November, Putin might be able to impress on Trump that just as Serbia catalyzed a chain of events that led great powers to sleepwalk into World War I, the same could happen with Iran leading to the terrifying prospect of World War III.
Team Trump’s obsession on strangling Iran into economic submission is a no-go, even for the Macron-Merkel-led European Union. On top of it, the Russia-China strategic partnership simply won’t allow any funny – reckless – games to be played against a crucial node of Eurasia integration.
Putin won’t even need to go hypersonic to make his case to Trump.
I notice the article says that the Avengard will be ready either “by the end of next year, or by early 2019.”
Well, “next year” is 2019. To make sense, it should read either “by the end of this year, or early 2019”, or “by the end of next year or early 2020.”
Just curious as to what is actually meant here.
Antoinetta III
The error is probably “this year”, instead of what is written as “next year”.
The Avangard is already moving into “service” and full production will occur through early next year.
The Sarmats are also still not in service, and are being produced. They will come on line fully by 2020.
Meanwhile, there are SS-18 Satan ICBMs that the Avangard can ride on.
Putin would not have bluffed. He said they are ready and set. So, there may be some small number ready to fly.
I believe, that contrary to the official story those incredible missiles are in production, which is super secret. And I believe that there are enough of them already to make a difference even if any confrontation was going to happen today.
The official story is said, so the reality does not cause any earth-quacking shocks in Washington and London.
I agree.
First invent, then make, then test, then set aside a first stock (including delivery system) – and only then: announce. Meanwhile full production is underway.
USA is a historical lesson. What not to do in Earth’s nature.
No, resoundingly NO human beings gathered as though all powerful “owners” in Earth’s nature, can suffocate the energy breathing.
The CO2 tax failed and that was more likely than not, the real turnabout in globalization.
Now we watch and wait, for the most criminally insane of our species, to realize the reckoning has already happened.
im afraid your 100% correct….every human being should be very aware of our destruction at the hands of the minority
So it just means its now or never for a pre-emptive strike and the walk to take down Moscow.
France, Germany, UK, USA all have experience from the past. Force by quantity. Either you risk it, or you loose it.
If we Americans can dream it, we can do it.
You’ll lose it. The Russian Army will teach the “World’s Greatest Military” what operational envelopment is, what strategic envelopment is and what a Russian victory parade in Washington looks like. Wink! Wink!
Then we all die in the nuclear winter that follows…. Or did your dream not include that part?
Great. Ronny RayGun used to consult an astrologer. Now we get government by dreams. No wonder we are doomed and the smart people have set their Doomsday Clock to 2 minutes to midnight. Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock.
To me, the whole exchange over an “EU Army” gets filed in the “Trump is a moron” category.
After WW2, the deal was that the US would protect western Europe. A key phrase from that time was “nuclear umbrella”, as the chosen US method of protection was largely by including western Europe under the US’ nuclear umbrella. In other words, threatening nuclear war if western Europe was attacked. This was Ike’s decision in the 50’s as he felt nuclear weapons were cheaper than a large conventional army.
Trump has constantly attack both NATO and the European powers. The argument that Europe wasn’t paying their share in NATO is an old Republican argument. Trump picked it up and found that crowds in MAGA hats cheered at the line Trump has also been attacking Germany as a part of his trade wars.
It takes little or no strategic sense to figure out that this was going to make Europe nervous about relying on US protection for its security. The obvious reply was in an old idea called an “EU Army”. The key point about an EU Army as opposed to NATO is that an EU Army does not follow American orders.
If Trump ever thought beyond what makes a good applause line at a rally, he’d have known this. It was of course absurd of Trump to fire off yet another tweet attacking the Europeans for not feeling secure under the protection of a man who constantly attacks them in language and policy.
EU army is a nonsense.
Expecting an ordinary man from Bretagne to die protecting some Lituania?
Or a Hungarian to attack Russia in interest of French warmongers?
I mean French traitors and cowards should have any impact or even command on the other nations?!
They cannot control even their own country any more, too many muslims and Africans. The same valid for Germany, Sweden…
The vast majority of Eastern Europeans would run over to Russians and with a great pleasure turn their weapons against the Westerners or even their own proNATO officers!!
I agree with you. Because people are not their governments. Normal people are sympathetic to Russians. The only time Russians occupied someone was in 1772, Katerina the Great ganged up with her cousins to divide Poland. Other wars were mostly in defense of their Fatherland. Whatever the grievances against Russia are the result of losing a war to Russia.
Or US soldiers fighting in Afghanistan, French soldiers fighting in Mali, Brits in the Falklands……..no that would never happen.
The europeans are right now knowing what is happening with the go out of the INF treaty by US?. But do not matter if is true, they know that they are the pigs with whom the gringos were hoping to stop the russians while they bombed moscow without suffer nothing in their homeland. With the new arms generation that is not possible. If there are war, it will be around all the world.
Macron’s notion of EU self-defense is going to be blocked by the US. The American hegemonists fear losing NATO as the front line (nuclear targets) in case a real war breaks out with Russia. They want Russia to expend its strike (first, second or whatever) on the EU, giving the US time to shelter their elites and fire everything they have at the RF.
Of course, the hypersonic Avangard warheads are meant primarily for US targets. That gives Putin the leverage for negotiations if and when the US realizes that their technology to defend themselves is obsolete and incapable of surviving Russian weapons.
(We see the Iron Dome barely knocking down one-third of the small rockets the Palestinians have fired at the Israelis.)
And the Aegis and Aegis Ashore missile defenses will do much worse against Russian missiles.
So, for the foreseeable future (8-10 years), the US is basically defenseless and will be utterly destroyed if it errs in its actions militarily against Russia. Doesn’t matter how big and expensive the US military is or how many Europeans it can get into tanks and behind artillery at the Russian border. Russia will remove the US from the continent of North America, and destroy all the US allies and vassalage in Europe along with the remaining Five Eyes.
It is understanding that future, absorbing that reality which will move the Hegemon to give more than a half-hour or an hour (perhaps, in Argentina at the G-20) to discuss the issues that matter to Russia and the US.
Anyone knows, the two leaders should spend three or four hours, at minimal, to explore the topics.
However, it was clear that Trump, because of his White House team, rabid Russophobes advising him, and political pressures from the Senate and MIC and Intel agencies, along with the Khazarians in the State Dept., cannot engage with Putin. When he will feel strong enough to exert his Presidential powers is not clear.
Meanwhile, the US blusters threats and is desperate to strangle Putin’s economy. At some point, if the US disrupts the oil and gas exports of Russia, then war will turn from economic to retaliatory. The US electrical grid might suffer a massive hack to equalize the impact to US economy. The possible bad outcomes are endless.
But as certain as the Avangard switches the balance of power to Moscow, the path to destroy Russia economically could be just the trigger for use of such a weapon.
In Paris, Putin tried his best against a vain Macron, a spiteful EU and the “handcuffed” President Trump.
Argentina offers another great opportunity. So far, nothing great is being arranged, prepared or suggested.
Half-hour across a table, in public, is not diplomacy. It’s captivity. The two “most powerful” men on the planet should be free to talk and talk and talk. Or the Avangard might have the last word.
Insightful comments, Larchmonter.
I would only juxtapose one point, which I think is too much overlooked:
Most of our perceptions and analyses arise from the current and recently past structural reality. That is, post WW1 and WW2 power positions. Most of the currently discussed observations about the behaviors and motives of Russia and China are colored by this structure. But this quote by Lincoln applies to countries as well as individuals:
“Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.”
Russia and China were both decimated during the last century. I often wonder about their residual anger and traumatic fear, which is practically never seen on the world stage. But what about the people working behind the scenes, for example, those who put Putin in power?
My instincts tell me it is naive to think that all is forgiven and forgotten.
JohnTB,
The ‘West’ must realise that time for change has arrived, that everything has a limit, that if there is at least balance of forces, an agreement should be made because, if it doesn’t happen, a bloody war will be inevitable, with all its unexpected outcomes…
just to add, maybe i am wrong,but…
One significant indicator of the partially wrong foreign policy of Russia is that the American presidents are clowns and retard. what does this tell us. that Americans, ie those who rule the United States, believe that the conflict or relationship with the Russians is not too serious and critical to have a serious president in power. they do not consider Russians / Chinese to be a serious/mortal factor to seriously deal with them. the path is laid out and will be as the American says. so the rulers of America consider it. during CCCP Americans had more serious diplomacy and some decent presidents. no one will, neither Russians nor Chinese start a war with the Americans. only Americans will, if they will, start the war first. the illusion is that it depends on Putin. he can buy some time and save for the inevitable. So, we have a side that believes to themselves so much that they allow themselves a fool for the president and on the other side of very serious and nasty players who are confused with clowns on the other side of the Atlantic. it is very likely that these two realities will collide without intent on either side. for example, we do not know what some NATO forces could do in the event of a collapse of communications with the headquarters and possession of tactical nuclear weapons near Russia’s borders. in the case of a “small” conflict. Sometimes America’s strength depended on the strength of its enemies. The collapse of the CCCP has “squeezed” the power of the “good” side of America, no matter what it then looked like a victory. today we see a distorted USA. armed and very dangerous for all mankind.
***for EU army..it may be good idea.
would definitely prevent disagreements and perhaps conflicts between the old EU empires. The EU can not develop normally when it is in the constant spasm imposed by the Americans / British Crown and Zionists towards the Russians.
Is it just me or does this seem much like the time prior to the NATO intervention in (the former) Yugoslavia?
When Vlad. Putin visited these assorted Western “leaders” in France like Macron, Merkel, or Trump, he likely felt like an adult visiting a Kindergarten filled with bratty, hysterical, and screaming children.
His only recourse was to smile and humor all these spoiled Western toddlers–while firmly reminding them that a (nuclear) spanking awaits them if they continue to misbehave. ;-)
P.Escobar’s post must be read, reread and shared widely, debated, comments sent in. Trump’s obsession with strangling Iran into submission is where his deep instability lies:letting emotions alone determine actions. Such emotional weakness feeds into those whose very life is war no matter that total life annihilation is presently the result of forever war.
US planned WW11 with the Nazis, American corporations like the beginning auto corp, others too like healthcare.
Monsanto is the natural offshoot of them, now Monsanto/Bayer. Round Up was found deadly over 30 years ago, is still militantly sold globally.
The beliefs of eliminating billions of humans named “defective, subnormal etc” covered up the horror of slaughter used to control dissent enabling the corporate elimination of human lives as did the credo of the Nazis. The Russian Empire the largest nation but for China was demonised to be genocidally eliminated and filled with “approved” lives. Just as true today as 500, 1,000 years ago.
The US has been actively destroying settled Western Law since 9/11 in order to take over the world in any way they are able to do this. 9/11’s result in a War (global) on Terror, an human emotion, no country, proves my point.
Each open US Deep State Regime Change war, each criminally punishing sanction, are criminal acts of open global warfare. Hungary’s refusal to accept domination by criminal US is where Europe came from, sovereignty
laws of nations, of each citizen. As weapons become more deadly. the right to dissent must strengthen or the human race will eliminate itself. US 9/11 was US supported to eliminate dissent.
US attempts at global domination are echoes of Nazi domination, far worse than what they come from .
The well educated Bush 1 as a young boy and man studied Roman law and history and saw his role through his father’s Saudi oil plans, to introduce an American global empire using the Roman God of War, Chaos. Look around and see it today. Chaos is destructing us completely.
Orban is right. Trump is wrong. Putin will meld them as powerful Europe shatters itself in that Bush1 chaos, turning it’s back on it’s saviour, Russia.
Pepe will tell us about it.
From this side of the Atlantic, I can’t decide if the Canadian establishment/government is preparing me for a large-scale land war, or to send Canadian peacekeepers overseas, in defense of the British Crown (without American support), while Europe rearranges itself — an option that would be totally politically untenable, except when the other available option is participating in a large-scale ground war. Can Hypersonic Putin prevent that? I’m not so sure. Maybe I’m mis-reading the cues entirely.
Why is it generally accepted that Serbia provoked WW1?
I would expect more from P. Escobar than to regurgitate what is essentially western propaganda.
Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Oops, I guess it didn’t, but a pretext for war was needed so America went with it.
A pretext for war was needed, so the Austrian empire came up with a pretext and went with it. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised, if ultimately, they were the ones behind the assassination. The archduke was the emperor’s nephew and not very much liked by the family, or so we are taught here.
There were maaaaaany reasons for WW1, those reasons building up over the course of many decades prior. In great power politics of that time, Serbia had no influence, and was seen as territory for conquest by the Hapsburg Empire.
Very true, and a useful reminder.
After the Archduke’s assassination, Austria-Hungary sent Serbia a demand for cooperation that amounted to a demand to surrender sovereignty – for example, Austria-Hungarians could have accessed any part of Serbian territory at will. Knowing Serbia was a much smaller country, Serbians agreed to almost every demand, save the most outlandish.
This was exactly the reaction Vienna had been expecting and had guaranteed by sending impossible to accept demands. So they declared war, and began bombing Belgrade. While Berlin was getting impatient: why wasn’t Vienna sending its Army quicker to Serbia? Russia had to be provoked!
Still not fully believing what they were seeing, Tsar Nicolas II started mobilizing its Army, with French diplomatic support. This was a very long process, and was mostly a sign and a call for Austrians to have to stop at some point before they had totally overrun Serbia, no Russian attack was imminent. This was still diplomacy.
However, this was exactly what Berlin had been expecting all along. That gave the German High Command the pretext they needed to claim to civilian population that “the Russians are attacking our good ally, and then us” and that “they are forcing us to wage war first”.
Berlin had a plan to first overrun France, taking advantage of slow mobilization of Russian forces, then all forces could be turned on Russia and defeat it too. So they declared war on France, invading it along with Belgium on the way – which they knew would decide London to join the war – and proceded to complete the Schlieffen plan that was to lead to quick victory. And after the second victory against Russia, for sure everybody would be home by Christmas, while Germany would dominate the Continent!
Or so they thought. However wars seldom go like their initiators had believed – a point that has been repeatedly learnt and repeatedly forgotten in human history. France turned the tide of the invasion on the Marne in September 1914, with help from Russia which invaded Eastern Prussia succeeding in occupying one German army even if defeated at Tannenberg.
The quick and successful war expected by the German High Command was not to be.
The most murderous European war since three centuries, birth of two monsters Communism and Nazism, and a second war even more murderous were to follow.
Alexis – it wasn’t just the Continent that the Second Reich wanted to dominate. The watchword before WW1 was “Weltmacht oder Niedergang” (World Power or Downfall). The Third Reich also had the same idea.
And 100 years on , we have another Empire talking about Full Spectrum Dominance.